AFC North Breakdown + Hot Takes

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: AFC North Breakdown + Hot Takes
Release Date: July 23, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Podcast: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast

---

1. Introduction and League Structure Discussion

Timestamp [04:16] - [07:23]

The episode begins with the hosts addressing a listener question from Eric about making changes to fantasy football leagues, specifically the removal of kickers in favor of a second quarterback position.

Key Points:

• Voting Mechanism:
  Andy emphasizes the importance of initiating league changes through votes. He states, "You need an idea, a thought, a whisper in the wind to say, get rid of kickers from fantasy football." [04:21]

• Majority vs. Unanimous Decisions:
  The hosts debate whether changes should require a simple majority or a super majority. Jason suggests a 70% rule for fundamental changes like adding a second quarterback, while Mike adds that certain alterations, such as moving to a money league or implementing severe penalties, should require unanimous consent.

• Strategic Changes:
  Andy proposes indirectly encouraging the removal of kickers by reducing their point value: "Have you thought about just belittling them like changing their points to like 0.1 points for a 50-yarder." [07:04] This tactic may prompt managers to voluntarily exclude kickers due to their diminished value.

Conclusion:
The hosts agree that significant league modifications should involve substantial consensus, ensuring all members are aligned before implementing changes that impact the league's dynamics.

---

2. News and Notes

Timestamp [07:23] - [10:58]

The hosts transition to discussing recent NFL news affecting fantasy football players.

Key Points:

• PUP List Updates:

  • DeAndre Hopkins: Placed on the active PUP list due to a shoulder injury from the playoff loss to the Colts. Jason remarks, "The Texans placed DeAndre Hopkins, which was a little bit surprising." [10:18]
  • Julian Edelman: Sidelined for at least three weeks with a thumb injury. Jason ponders his fantasy value, considering potential missed games.
  • Will Fuller: Avoided the PUP list, which is positive for the Texans' offense and Fuller’s fantasy prospects.
  • Sony Michel: Activated from the PUP list, increasing Damien Harris and James White’s snap counts.

• Melvin Gordon Situation:
  Melvin Gordon is reportedly holding out for an extension with the Chargers. Jason advises fantasy managers drafting Gordon to avoid early investment due to the risk of potential missed games: "If I'm at a point in the back end of the first round … I'm drafting Joe Mixon without hesitation because I think there is a really good chance that Melvin Gordon misses a few games." [14:07]

• Other Moves:

  • Darren Sprols: Signed by the Eagles, adding depth to their running back corps.
  • Darren Sprols Usage: Discussed the limited but effective role he may play in the Eagles’ offense.

Conclusion:
Injuries and roster moves significantly impact player availability and value. Fantasy managers should stay informed and adjust their strategies accordingly to mitigate risks.

---

3. AFC North Breakdown

Timestamp [20:50] - [62:03]

The core segment of the episode focuses on analyzing the AFC North division, covering the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, and Cincinnati Bengals.

a. Baltimore Ravens

Timestamp [20:50] - [31:59]

Roster Changes and Offseason Moves:

• Running Backs: Addition of Mark Ingram to complement Gus Edwards and Javorius Allen.
• Wide Receivers: Drafted Marquis Brown in the first round and Justice Hill in the fourth. Miles Boykin was selected in the third round.
• Tight Ends: Highlighted Mark Andrews as a potential breakout candidate.

Offensive Strategy:

• Lamar Jackson's Role: Lamar remains a pivotal player, but his productivity as a fantasy quarterback is under scrutiny. Andy notes, "Lamar Jackson himself, he was the number 11 quarterback from the time he took over in week 10." [22:34]
• Passing Targets: The Ravens have the second-highest number of vacated targets (55), raising questions about the viability of their receiving options as Lamar continues to manage the offense.

Fantasy Implications:

• Lamar Jackson: Despite being a dynamic quarterback, his inconsistent performance in passing limits his fantasy ceiling. Jason summarizes, "I think Lamar Jackson is a great fantasy option late in drafts." [24:12]
• Mark Andrews: Andy suggests Mark Andrews could become a valuable tight end if his target share increases: "Mark Andrews is … on pace in those same seven games … an important part of this offense." [30:00]

Conclusion:
The Ravens offer potential through Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson as a late-round quarterback pick. However, the reliance on Lamar's dual-threat capabilities without a strong passing game may limit overall fantasy value.

b. Pittsburgh Steelers

Timestamp [32:21] - [43:14]

Roster Changes and Offseason Moves:

• Wide Receivers: Loss of Antonio Brown significantly impacts the receiving corps.
• Running Backs: James Conner emerges as a central figure following Antonio Brown's departure.
• Additions: Dante Moncrief (one-year deal), Deontay Johnson (third round), Benny Snell (fourth round), and Jesse James.

Offensive Strategy:

• James Conner: While Conner showed flashes, his consistency and durability raise concerns. Andy states, "I think James Conner is a good back but I've got him right now as my running back. 13 in half point PPR." [35:27]
• Wide Receivers: JuJu Smith-Schuster remains a reliable target, but the absence of Antonio Brown leaves questions about target distribution and overall offensive efficiency.

Fantasy Implications:

• James Conner: Viewed as a 12 to 15 finish due to his potential role as a workhorse back, overshadowed by ongoing offensive adjustments.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster: Potential to remain a top receiver, but his production may fluctuate with offensive changes and lack of a primary star receiver.

Conclusion:
The Steelers present a mixed bag for fantasy managers. James Conner offers solid mid-round value, while JuJu Smith-Schuster remains a consistent, though potentially volatile, option.

c. Cleveland Browns

Timestamp [43:14] - [58:39]

Roster Changes and Offseason Moves:

• Additions: Odell Beckham Jr., Kareem Hunt, Duke Johnson.
• Quarterback: Baker Mayfield’s ascension as the starter.
• Running Backs: Nick Chubb emerges as a premier RB option.

Offensive Strategy:

• Baker Mayfield: Undergoes a transformation to become more efficient and target-heavy, bolstered by star wide receivers.
• Nick Chubb: Positioned as a top-tier fantasy running back contingent on the Browns’ overall team performance.

Fantasy Implications:

• Nick Chubb: Highly valued due to his talent and the expectation that the Browns’ offense will be effective. Mike asserts, "Nick Chubb is a sensational running back. … he is worth the draft price." [52:22]
• Odell Beckham Jr.: While potentially a high-impact player, concerns about Jarvis Landry’s efficiency and Beckham’s injury history create a risk-reward scenario.

Conclusion:
The Browns offer significant upside with Nick Chubb and Baker Mayfield. However, Odell Beckham Jr.'s return introduces variability due to potential injury concerns and target competition.

d. Cincinnati Bengals

Timestamp [58:39] - [62:03]

Roster Changes and Offseason Moves:

• Head Coach: Hiring of Zach Taylor, an offensive-minded coach with ties to Sean McVay.
• Quarterback: Andy Dalton remains the starter, with uncertainties surrounding his efficiency and the team’s offensive potential.

Offensive Strategy:

• Wide Receivers: AJ Green’s injury history raises concerns about his reliability and overall fantasy output.
• Coaching Philosophy: Unproven head coach Zach Taylor brings potential offensive innovations, but his lack of extensive coaching experience poses a risk.

Fantasy Implications:

• AJ Green: Viewed as a high-risk, high-reward option. Jason highlights the challenge of maximizing his potential due to injury concerns: "If you want a wide receiver, A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Stefan Diggs … I don't know if he can be a top three guy." [39:27]
• Andy Dalton: Generally not recommended for single-quarterback leagues, but could be considered in two-quarterback formats.

Conclusion:
The Bengals remain a speculative choice in fantasy drafts. While AJ Green offers potential, his injury history and the new coaching regime introduce significant uncertainty.

---

4. Final Thoughts

Timestamp [62:03] - End

The hosts wrap up the AFC North Breakdown, reiterating the importance of understanding each team's offensive dynamics and roster changes when making fantasy decisions. They emphasize the necessity to weigh risks, such as injuries and team performance variability, against potential rewards.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway on Lamar Jackson: "Lamar Jackson is a viable … he's a great fantasy option late in drafts." [24:12]
• Jason Moore on Nick Chubb: "Nick Chubb is a sensational running back … he is worth the draft price." [52:22]
• Mike Wright on Jake Landry: "He had 166 targets last year ... but you're worried about the touchdowns and efficiencies." [38:07]

Conclusion:

This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the AFC North, offering valuable insights for fantasy football managers. By examining roster changes, offensive strategies, and player performances, the Fantasy Footballers equip listeners with the knowledge to make informed draft and in-season decisions.

---

Stay Connected:
For more detailed analysis and updates, join the Fantasy Footballers community at JoinTheFoot.com and follow them on Twitter @TheFFBallers.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, it's that time of year. Fantasy football is back. Everything is ramping up. Your leagues are getting ready. You're talking trash with your friends. You need to make sure you get this year's 2019 Ultimate Draft Kit so that you can dominate those fools, make them look stupid. This year we've added a new mobile app. It's awesome. If you want all of our projected stat lines, every sleeper breakout bust, all the information, dynasty, auction, it's all in there. We're updating it all season long. It is the most proven tool for fantasy football. Go to ultimate draftkit.com hello, my name.

[Jason Moore]

Is the mighty Steve and I'm from Newcastle in England. My team is ABC eases RG3 and you're listening to the fantasy footballers.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in Top of the morning.

[Mike Wright]

Bonjour.

[Jason Moore]

It's good to be back, guys. How you feeling, Jason?

[Andy Holloway]

I feel fantastic. I got some sun in the California beaches.

[Mike Wright]

California, son, it's a lot different than your sun.

[Andy Holloway]

So here's the thing that I actually figured out. Like it's 70 degrees in San Diego. Obviously it's 128,000 degrees in Arizona and so like it's much cooler there just by the temperature. But here's what I found out. When you go outside and you stand there without shade, it's the same sun that is here in Arizona. They don't actually have a different sun. And it's so hot and it bakes your skin.

[Mike Wright]

And that is sun is hot. Accurate.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. More hot takes on the way. Welcome in Tuesday, July 23rd. Guys, we're almost to five shows a week territory.

[Mike Wright]

I can't wait. We're almost two because that means it's time for real, actual fantasy football camp.

[Jason Moore]

Not real, actual football. Real, actual fantasy football. That's right, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I've heard there's there is some football.

[Jason Moore]

Started based the fantasy football off of the real game. Did you not know?

[Mike Wright]

Look, they can thank us for their contracts.

[Jason Moore]

Fantasy football camps are opening up soon. Fantasy football season.

[Mike Wright]

They are. Draft kits are open right now.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. We have a great show. We're in the AFC north today. Steelers.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, there's going to be some Ravens. Heated discussions on the Steelers.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, the Bengals are there too.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we'll cover the Bengals at least a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

I think this is. We're going to talk about all of.

[Andy Holloway]

Them front to back. This is one of the most interesting, compelling Divisions for fantasy football. Because even though prior to recording, you know, I was kind of talking about how I'm a little bit more down on the Bengals this year, including their fantasy options. They're the worst team in the division and they have great, highly drafted fantasy options there. So, I mean, you, you know, it feels like we've done a lot of these divisional shows where once you get to the last team, you're kind of.

[Jason Moore]

Like, you don't want anybody.

[Andy Holloway]

Pass.

[Jason Moore]

All right, you can find us on YouTube. YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. Make sure you subscribe. Click the bell so you're notified of brand new shows and segments and highlights and everything you need to know for fantasy. You can find us on Instagram. Instagram.com fantasy footballers. We're on Twitter at the Ffballers and Jason mentioned it at the top of the show, but the ultimate draft kit is available now. $1 of every UDK sold goes directly to our good partners at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. This year. They've been incredible partners for the live tour where, yes, you know, we'll be in LA here in a couple weeks and back in Phoenix for that. So shout out to St. Jude and all the work they're doing. We're happy to be a part of it. And here's your quick question for the day. So it comes in from Eric.

[Andy Holloway]

Eric.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that would be it.

[Andy Holloway]

That meant something to you.

[Mike Wright]

No, don't worry. There's people out there that know what I mean.

[Jason Moore]

It's a league change voting question and this is something that comes up a lot. How many votes do I need to make a change to the league? Some of us want to replace kicker with a second quarterback. What do you think?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you need one vote for that. That's if you're wanting to get rid of kickers.

[Mike Wright]

You need a vote or you just need, like an idea.

[Andy Holloway]

You need an idea, a thought, a whisper in the wind to say, get rid of kickers from fantasy football. I know, Andy, you disagree with me on that. But in reality, in your case, you.

[Jason Moore]

Need someone from a neighboring league to just cast one vote, right?

[Andy Holloway]

And that's fine, that's good enough. Change it now.

[Mike Wright]

I knew a guy who had a roommate and he was dating someone and they got rid of kickers.

[Andy Holloway]

You're listening this podcast right now. This, what we are telling you is enough. Get rid of kickers. But no, in reality, for a league, you need majority. Now, for something like this, the question is, do you need a super majority? Do you need unanimous or do you just need seven out of 12. If you're in a 12.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

There's plenty of leagues that don't need any votes at all. The commissioner ends up just making the decision. So that's step one is, you know, not in America. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Not in my American leagues or democracy.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the thing is it should be a vote. Something as fundamental as a second quarterback position. I would say you need a super majority. You would need something. I agree 70, you know, a 10 man league, 7 of 10 owners. I'm not doing the math on the other leagues but you can apply the 70% rule, the superness, the super majority.

[Mike Wright]

That's where kryptonite somewhere.

[Jason Moore]

And there are things, I mean unanimous decisions. If you're going to expand the roster or like to keepers. If you're going to move to keepers. That's something that I would like to say is needs to be a unanimous decision or at least that rule has to get put in place with plenty of lead time for people to make adjustments. You can't just have a majority vote mid season that now we're doing keepers and. No, but the other half of the league hasn't planned for it changing to a. Because I'll vote for it if I have good keepers and I won't if I don't.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. Changing to a money league. That needs to be something that's unanimous. Can't be like, well, we've been in this league for 10 years now. We now we want, you know, money and you know, that needs everybody. If you're doing any crazy punishment, say loser gets a tattoo. Oh, we're going to go ahead and say that one's going to need to be unanimous.

[Jason Moore]

We had someone who wrote in. Remember this?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I did.

[Jason Moore]

Where it was like a 12 man league and 11 of the 12 owners voted for it to be a tattoo league. He didn't want it.

[Andy Holloway]

He was the only one finished last.

[Jason Moore]

You are not stuck to get that tattoo.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Jason, I'm going to suggest something. I know you want to get rid of kickers.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Have you thought about just belittling them like changing their.

[Andy Holloway]

I have done it my entire professional.

[Jason Moore]

Life fundamentally in fantasy. Change their points to like 0.1 points for a 50 yarder.

[Andy Holloway]

I am 100% fine with that.

[Jason Moore]

See what I mean? Then they start to get. Feel bad. They may leave the leagues on their own is what I'm saying.

[Andy Holloway]

That'd be delightful.

[Mike Wright]

I see.

[Andy Holloway]

Now I prefer, I prefer if you are going to listen to this and say, hey, I'm going to go Back to my league and make it better. We're going to get rid of kickers, get rid of the unknown that people don't really put a lot of work and effort into. I would replace it with an extra flex as opposed to an extra quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

We can go super flex.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, if you want two quarterbacks.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that was the point. You were just saying it's a profound change to go to a super flex league.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. That changes the dynamic of the league in very large ways, which is, I mean, super flex looks great.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. All right, fair enough.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Jason Moore]

All right, There's a few pieces of news. Brooks wanted me to mention this. I see a little note pop up in there. But we are, we did start something new, something to help fantasy owners in general. And it fits in with the news thing. And if you are interested, we started a newsletter called the Blitz.

[Andy Holloway]

It's so cool.

[Jason Moore]

And it's kind of a reimagined way of like you've all gotten newsletters, you've gotten piles and piles of information and links and solicitations. That's not the point of the Blitz. The Blitz is you get the five biggest stories in fantasy football delivered to your inbox once a week. We curate the stories, we add in a little bit of a spin and some snark and we make it fun. And that's it. That's what the Blitz is.

[Andy Holloway]

First one goes out Thursday.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't want to miss it.

[Jason Moore]

So you can. If you want to sign up for that, it's free. You just go to the fancy footballers.com.

[Andy Holloway]

Blitz and a little insight here. Peel back the curtain. This has been like a six month pet project from Andy that he's wanted forever to have. Like he really has been the driver behind this. He's excited.

[Jason Moore]

I just want something useful for people to get when they open it up and you can read it and I don't know, it's going to be like you can probably read it in. What I've been saying is half a poop.

[Andy Holloway]

Half a poop?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, no, you don't need a full half a poop. You can read it. It's just quick, easy to consume information.

[Mike Wright]

Look, the thoughts are already there. I can't move away from it.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, great.

[Andy Holloway]

Let it out.

[Mike Wright]

The turn of phrase. Peel back the curtain. When have you ever peeled a curtain?

[Jason Moore]

I think it's just the expression of you peel things and that same motion is what you use to pull a curtain back. It's really not that Hard you.

[Mike Wright]

That's how you peel an orange.

[Jason Moore]

Well, no, now you get a nice grip.

[Mike Wright]

But I mean that's how you peel a banana.

[Jason Moore]

Turn a banana sideways and then peel it. And that will be very similar to the motion of opening a curtain. Mike. I'm just saying I think you could do it.

[Mike Wright]

Look, we say a lot of things and we don't even actually think about what we're saying. That's one of those. That's very interesting.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you can noodle on it for a while. Think about it.

[Mike Wright]

I'm doing it right now. And so is everyone listening to this show.

[Jason Moore]

Alright, the ti A bunch of active pup list news coming out. The Texans placed DeAndre Hopkins, which was.

[Mike Wright]

This one was a little bit surprising.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. They said that the issue is presumably his shoulder because he revealed that he had, quote, torn some of the ligaments off the bone in the playoff loss to the Colts. And so the thing about this pup news is I don't overreact fantasy owners, that's my opinion.

[Mike Wright]

Not yet.

[Jason Moore]

Some of them are surprising. But the thing is you can come off the PUP at any moment in time.

[Andy Holloway]

There's two types of pup. There's the act active and the reserve. If you hear someone is being put on the reserve pup, they're going to miss some time, guaranteed. If they're on the active PUP at any moment, they can come back off. It's. It's just basically saying, hey, we can use roster spots for other players right now while we're waiting on him, but.

[Jason Moore]

It can bring to light some injuries you don't know exist. And that's what happened with Hopkins.

[Mike Wright]

And the quick counterpoint to this was Will Fuller avoided the pop list, which is. That's great news for the Texans offense and for Fuller.

[Jason Moore]

Yep. The Patriots put Sony Michelle on the active pup.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

So he won't be on the field more. Damien Harris snaps more. James White snaps as of right now. This was surprising. It was discovered that Julian Edelman, former or last year's super bowl mvp, spotted at his youth camp with a brace on his thumb, going to be sidelined for at least three weeks due to the injury. That's according to league sources. And Field Yates reported that as well. And Shefty. So Edelman missing some time. This is the problem.

[Mike Wright]

It is the problem with Julian Edelman.

[Jason Moore]

I mean this. Did I adjust him yet? No, I don't think he's going to miss any time. Well, here's what it brought to mind. Yes, I might not because of the thumb specifically bleeding into the season, but because that Edelman chose to remind me of the state of Edelman. The state of Edelman is very often this state. And am I factoring that enough into my lofty projections of Julian Edelman for this season because he's the greatest player to prognosticate over 16 games? He's not the easiest player to get through 16 games. So yes, it's bringing to mind some of the. Maybe I need to think of him more of as a 14 game type of guy because he's going to miss a game or two being banged up. That's he plays too hard to stay healthy.

[Mike Wright]

But even if you're giving him those 14 games, like right now on calculator, Julian Edelman is going at the beginning of the fourth round. So to you and what you feel about Julian Edelman is.

[Jason Moore]

I'm talking about my projected stat line. He's absolutely.

[Mike Wright]

But is he still worth that draft?

[Jason Moore]

He's worth better than that spot.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

But my total stat line is what I'm looking at.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Yahoo's Charles Robinson just reported the Chargers are quote dug in.

[Mike Wright]

This is not good.

[Jason Moore]

Their stance on Melvin Gordon's holdeck. Gordon says he's going to hold out to get his. The Chargers are presumably taking their stance to try to navigate this situation. We don't know what's going to happen. It's not good for something not to have happened immediately. But, you know, I'm more concerned in, you know, we get to August preseason game two, and we're talking about Melvin Gordon as a big issue because there's.

[Andy Holloway]

A lot of leagues that draft early, you know, that are out there. You're drafted now, you're drafting this week and you got to make a decision. What do I do with Melvin Gordon? I can tell you for me, and I said this since the news came out, I'm not drafting Melvin Gordon in the, maybe the very end of the first, but when there's a lot of other good players. Look, I like Melvin Gordon a lot more than Joe Mixon. But if I'm at a point in the back end of the first round where it's those two guys and I'm drafting now I'm drafting Joe Mixon without hesitation because I think there is a really good chance that Melvin Gordon misses a few games. If not, you know, a dire left bell type situation, this just nothing here looks good. Melvin Gordon seems like he's completely willing to play the game of chicken. And we've seen the Chargers lose the game of chicken so many times, you know, you just don't want. This just isn't a. For a first round draft capital that you're spending on fantasy players. Why take the risk that you know is there now? Now obviously if he signs tomorrow, great. He's my number five running back.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and we just had now this different situation, but with Tyree Kill everybody who took the chance on drafting him at the fifth round and things like that paid off because it bent in your favor. I still believe they'll get something done. But one of the things complicating this extension is the fact that, you know, you're talking about an extension period, that that's going to go across the new collective bargaining agreement, which is complicating a lot of discussions about extensions because people don't know what that new CBA is going to look like. I think they'll get something done. You do not necessarily think it will be something that doesn't impact the fantasy season. So Austin Eckler, Justin Jackson, they need to be on your radar. How comfortable would you be of not moving much in your draft spot but insuring yourself with an Eckler? Yeah, I mean did you start doing that or is it. I mean because then you're taking two picks.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, we had this situation, right. We drafted Melvin Gordon in our Scotty Fishbowl league right before the news broke about this and we turned around a little while later and we grabbed Echler at a, at a good spot. I think if you, if you do go Gordon, you need to have protection.

[Jason Moore]

Mike, do you think he misses a game?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I do. And that really sucks.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, let's go ahead and look. Where else are we? Cowboys. They report to camp in a few days. It has not been decided whether Zeke will hold out for it because welcome to another situation.

[Mike Wright]

This is the best Joe mixing all.

[Jason Moore]

Of a sudden Joe Mixon goes number one in all drafts because of this. But we'll find out soon whether Zeke decides to try to hold out.

[Andy Holloway]

His does not have the air of affecting the season. This is like because it's two years left on the contract. He's sending a message this year and.

[Mike Wright]

He has to be back August 6th. Is it 6th?

[Andy Holloway]

I believe so.

[Mike Wright]

To accrue it was the 4th in my head but could be the 6th to accrue his a year of playing to get into to be a free agent where he can actually really have leverage. So he will show up.

[Jason Moore]

Eagles have signed Darren Sprols to a one year contract. Didn't get to talk about it on the Saturday show. It was Just breaking after Mike and I had recorded that show this now I'm going to do this. Top ahead. Ready?

[Mike Wright]

Interesting.

[Jason Moore]

Corey Clement on roster right now. Corey Clement, Miles Sanders, Josh Adams, Wendell Smallwood, Boston Scott, Danelle Pumphrey, Darren Sprols.

[Mike Wright]

You missed the one they traded for.

[Jason Moore]

And Jordan Howard.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

That is eight. That is eight roster backs. Now I expect they're three or four to be cut.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I thought they were looking for some more, but I could be wrong about that.

[Jason Moore]

Not yet. Not yet.

[Andy Holloway]

No. I mean, it says that. Corey Clement, Josh Adams. I don't expect them to make the roster.

[Jason Moore]

I think Clement's there. I think Clemens 100% on the roster. Yeah, like Pumphrey, Humphrey, Humphrey, Boston Scott. And who did you say? Josh Adams. I think Josh Adams. I think those three are gone. Yeah, but look, the team. My only real worry here that I started to think about was what does it say about Miles Sanders hamstring, like, in a week? I could be stupid to think this, but if you're signing Darren Sprols with seven existing backs, maybe he's not that healthy right now. Maybe he's not going to be back and healthy in camp. That's what I'm looking for as a fantasy owner because I love Miles Sanders. Opportunity to be the guy from week five on.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

And Sprouls. Sprouls still has juice. Like when you use him in small amounts and you. You get on the ball in space.

[Jason Moore]

It's the only way to use Darren Sprols.

[Mike Wright]

Well, just. Just saying that. That he was. He was still effective statue when he could actually play.

[Jason Moore]

All right, news and notes brought to you today by Sleeper Download the free app move your league to a modern platform with infinite customizations. We also want to thank a couple sponsors before we jump into the AFC North Breakdown. I love that I get to talk about Shady Rays. You do, Because I've been wearing Shady Rays sunglasses for at least the past two years. They were never a sponsor then. Now they're a sponsor of the show. And I love them even better. You want to know why I love them? I mean, there are a lot of reasons. They're kind of like us. They're not a huge corporation, and they don't overcharge for stuff, you know? But one of the reasons they're awesome looking, they're awesome like us. I lose my sunglasses. I never invest a million dollars in sunglasses. I lose them all the time. So I found Shady Rays. I like their glasses. I wear them. And they got the best warranty in all of I wear. You want to know why they give you free replacements. You just pay the shipping and handling if you lose them or break them. So I do both of those things with my sunglasses and now I don't have to go buy a brand new pair. I just exchange. It doesn't matter if you drop them into the ocean. Jason, when you were paddle boarding this.

[Andy Holloway]

Past weekend, that was a realistic situation.

[Jason Moore]

And they're guaranteed for life. Look, Shady Rays is giving you the best deal they have to offer. Use the code [e-mail] for 50% off two or more pairs. This is Black Friday level stuff, guys. You get two pairs $45 at shadyrays.com with the code footballers. Easy.

[Mike Wright]

Want to thank today's sponsor, Smile Direct Club. You can get a smile you'll love in about six months with Smile Direct Club. Let's be honest, we've all looked in the mirror and said, you know what, these teeth, they could use a little straightening, but you don't want to go through the braces. You don't want to go through the money. Well, now you can use SmileDirectClub. Straighten your teeth for about 60% less than braces with clear aligners sent directly to you. You can go online and book that free 3D image at one of their smile shops or you can order an at home impression kit. And once you get your aligners, one of the SmileDirectClub's duly licensed doctors will check in on your progress every 90 days. Check this out. Fookland. Get a free 3D image of your smile at one of their smile shops. Or get a $25 rebate on an at home impression kit. Then exclusive for our listeners. You get $100 off your clear [e-mail] podcast. Use the offer code fantasy. I'm going to repeat that because it's a little bit different. Get the $100 [e-mail] podcast. The code is FantasyDirectClub.com podcast offer code Fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's get divisional.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Sultry, let's do it. AFC North Breakdown Last year, the Ravens won the division at 10 and 6. The Steelers 9, 6 and 1. The Browns battled to 7, 8 and 1 and the Bengals brought up the rear at 6 and 10. So we'll start by talking about the Baltimore Ravens. They went on a run once Lamar Jackson took over this offense, this roster, it's a very interesting one. Off season addition wise, they brought in Mark Ingram at the running back position you know, we had been dealing with Alex Collins and Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon and Javorius Allen and some ensemble. We know that head coach Jim Harbaugh wants to be able to run the ball. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman wants to be able to run the ball this season with Lamar Jackson and that running back core. They also drafted Marquis Brown in the first round. Hollywood, if you didn't do that there, if you didn't do that there, I was going to cry. Fourth round pick Justice Hill, who is a really good player. I look forward to talking about him. Miles Boykin, a wide receiver in the third round. So no more Alex Collins, no more John Brown, no more Michael Crabtree, no more Brashad Perryman. That experiment is over. But what are we expecting out of this offense? Last year they were the second best rushing offense in football, obviously with Lamar Jackson carrying the ball a ton. They also have 55%, 55 vacated targets. Yes, that is the second highest number of vacated targets. There are new pass catchers in tow and we wonder, can Lamar Jackson get.

[Andy Holloway]

Them the ball and can he stay on the fair to wonder? It is fair to wonder if you look at how the wide receivers did look the Ravens Come week 10, that's when Lamar Jackson got his start. They were so much better. They went on their run, they made the playoffs, the team had great success. But their fantasy players, their receiving core was dead in the water the second that Lamar Jackson took over. So some of these tools might help Lamar Jackson, but can Lamar Jackson help any of the receiving options be viable fantasy players? I'm not going to, I'm not going to put any of my stock into the receiving core. Certainly not at wide receiver, maybe Mark Andrews at tight end, but Lamar Jackson himself, he was the number 11 quarterback from the time he took over in week 10. So that's his. That's actually seven games. A lot of times you think 16 week, season 17, their bye week was before week 10. So he had seven games as a starter and he was not a top end. He wasn't like what Josh Allen did, where he had these weeks where he finishes number one. Number two, what Lamar Jackson did was he finished, you know, 12, 13, 8, 9. Those are still good numbers. But over that stretch, seven games, he was the number 11 quarterback in fantasy. So he is a viable. He's super late, sometimes undrafted. He didn't get the buzz that I think going out of last season. We thought he was going to be super overdrafted because Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, they're getting the running quarterback Hype. I think Lamar Jackson is a great fantasy option late in drafts.

[Mike Wright]

The problem for Lamar was he was a running quarterback but, but that was it when it came to throwing the ball. He was averaging about 160 passing yards a game, which is, that's, that's embarrassing. Those are embarrassing numbers for a quarterback in today's NFL.7 passing touchdowns per game. But comboing that with 0.4 interceptions a game.

[Jason Moore]

So it's nearly 12 fumbles, 1.7 fumbles per game. He also had the worst or sorry the second worst red zone completion percentage in the league. He just never had the game where he had. I think the reason he's not kind of emboldened on people's minds as much is he never had that breakout game with the, with the arm. He never had the three touchdown game because if you. He never busted in any of those games.

[Mike Wright]

That just brought up very safe but.

[Jason Moore]

Super safe, never blew up.

[Mike Wright]

He did not have the ceiling. And here is my fear for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens now. It's not a complete apples to apples situation. Robert Griffin III came into the league, came into Washington, took him right into the playoffs, set the world on fire. Now he was injured right at the end. Washington the next year went 3 and 13. Do not forget what happened to Lamar Jackson in that playoff game. The Los Angeles Chargers were annihilating the Ravens. I know that the score finished 23 to 17, but in the fourth quarter with nine minutes left, this game was 23 to 3. And Lamar Jackson was able to get literally, literally nothing done. And now it's a completely revamped passing core or wide receiver core. He doesn't like Willie Sneed's his veteran. I mean that's really tough to get a kid to. You're going to acclimate to the NFL throwing the ball and all your wide receivers are brand new to the NFL as well. So that's my concern that the Ravens things could flip quickly for the Ravens. Their defense will still be elite but I think that they could talking about their win total could plummet at least a few wins now.

[Jason Moore]

Marquis Brown, Hollywood first round pick and he's still hurt. I was going to say they he's progressing well, should be back on the field in the next few weeks from the list rank injury. But I wanted to highlight that you're right. I mean there are some similarities between what Baltimore did in Arizona did in as much as like they invested two early picks on wide receivers. The Cardinals did the same in the Cardinal situation. Their veterans Larry Fitzgerald, you got Willie Snead in Baltimore. But let's, let's turn to the running game. Mark Ingram has not been discussed a lot. Right. He was the complimentary back with Alvin Camara in New Orleans. I haven't seen a lot of people excited to draft him, but he could come out very hot. His first four weeks of the season is nice. Miami 31st against the run last year. Arizona 32nd, Kansas City 27th, Cleveland 28th. Now I expect some turnover with those defensive fronts, but you're, you're talking about four teams that were pretty much the worst in football at stopping running backs. The team is projected to have the seventh best offensive line according to the huddle. Could Mark Ingram come out and make a lot of owners regret not investing in him?

[Andy Holloway]

I think because of the, because of the opening schedule he could get off to a hot start. But I personally don't think people are going to have major regrets because it's not like Mark Ingram is this late sixth round pick that you can get and he'll overperform. Right now he's going at the back of the third, the top of the fourth, right at the 34 turn that is, I mean, you know, he's going ahead of David Montgomery and Sony Michelle, Philip Lindsay, Chris Carson. Those are players that I would prefer over marking room because while the Baltimore Ravens, they're a great running team and they're going to run the ball a lot, I don't believe at all that Mark Ingram is coming in to be a lion share type of back. He's always his entire career been a running back by committee veteran and that. And they've got Gus Edwards who is on pace for 1500 yards over those same weeks that Lamar Jackson carrying the.

[Mike Wright]

Ball 18 times a game.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean he was an absolute beast. They're not going to just throw him, you know, to the curb. They just needed depth.

[Mike Wright]

Under the bus.

[Andy Holloway]

Under the bus.

[Jason Moore]

Under the Gus right there.

[Mike Wright]

When Gus bus goes under the Gus bus, it's troublesome.

[Andy Holloway]

He does a flip.

[Jason Moore]

Do you guys have any excitement about Justice Hill? I round draft pick, physical freak.

[Mike Wright]

I mean he's fast. Like he'll be good for the role assuming that they commit to him being the pass catching role.

[Jason Moore]

But I, that's a gonna merge to be something beyond that in this offense.

[Mike Wright]

If all of a sudden they turn him into Theo Riddick, then I'm interested, but other than that, not really.

[Jason Moore]

And Lamar Jackson, 95th percentile, burst score, 97th percentile, 40 yard dash.

[Mike Wright]

He's fast.

[Andy Holloway]

How big is he. He's 198 pounds.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So 510, 198.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. It's the same, Same weight. Yeah. I mean he's fast. I don't think that he's going to get involved as much as a lot of. I think he's the third back here in the rotation. Maybe fourth if you include Lamar Jackson as a running back.

[Jason Moore]

I think, I think something good. By the way, Justin Forsett was 5 8, 1, 98 on that Baltimore offense. Sure. And took it by storm.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Shout out to Justin Forsett.

[Mike Wright]

It's not impossible.

[Jason Moore]

Follow on Twitter.

[Andy Holloway]

But.

[Mike Wright]

And there was also not a. Well, because he don't make the law.

[Jason Moore]

That's right, Justin.

[Mike Wright]

Force it though. Once Lamar Jackson took over, I mean, it's, there's not a whole lot of targets to go around to the running back core that could change. It was his first year. But this, these are the, these are the numbers we have to go off.

[Andy Holloway]

The only other piece to discuss really is Mark, Mark Andrews.

[Jason Moore]

Real quick, are there any wide receivers you're willing to draft?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Mark Andrews.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, honestly, that's, that's the only receiver that I would be willing to touch here in a draft. Because while we brought, I mean we just brought up, right, he's got a bunch of rookies, he's got Willie Snead. Like he needs Mark Andrews, who was on pace in those same, you know, seven games with Lamar Jackson, he would have had the second most receiving yards of any rookie tight end since 2000.

[Mike Wright]

It's off, that's off the heels of a huge place for Mark Andrews because even in that time with Lamar where, I mean, he was great, you know, he was getting about 44 yards a game. His snaps, he never saw over 40% of the snaps. He was averaging about 34% of those Lamar Jackson games. And that to me, that's, no, that's not going to get it done.

[Andy Holloway]

But that to me is exactly an indication of a player to target. This is a guy who was not on the field that much because he was a rookie tight end. Rookie tight ends take a lot to integrate into snap counts. They couldn't have him on the field for all run plays. They brought him in as the pass catching guy coming into year two being an important part of this offense. If he ends up going realistically to the 60, 70% on the field numbers and he becomes the number one target, I think Mark Andrews is, you know, look, if you miss out on your top tight ends and you don't want to play around with the middle tier and you just want to punt the position forever and use your last pick on Mark Andrews. I'd be fine walking away in a draft.

[Mike Wright]

I've done it, I've done it a few times. And you're right. If, if he can show us that Allah. George Kittle who was like you saw the flash as he just wasn't getting on the field and wasn't getting hyper targeted. But if Mark Andrews can earn that role and Hayden Hurst remains kind of beat up.

[Jason Moore]

Hayden hurt.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, it's right there.

[Jason Moore]

It was really not, not a big leap.

[Andy Holloway]

Hayden hurt.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we need to move on.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

From receivers in Baltimore to, well, let's say receding the Steelers. All right. The 9, 6 and 1. Steve.

[Mike Wright]

I like it. I like it. The 9, 6 and 1.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. You start with ties and then they become losses. Mike, you didn't know that we were having, we were having long discussions before this show.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's get into it now about the.

[Jason Moore]

Steelers and you know, Mike Tomlin and where this team is heading. And I was talking a lot about. Look, Lev Bell gave him five solid years and I think people are going to miss him, but we'll find out. Last year they didn't make the playoffs. James Conner did have a monster fantasy season. Juju Smith Schuster cemented himself as one of the best wide receivers in football this year. No Antonio Brown. That's the big subtraction and it's a monster one.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

As far as additions, they brought in Dante Moncrief on a one year deal. They drafted Deontay Johnson in the third round, Benny Snell in the fourth at running back. And Jesse James has gone too. Guys.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I'm aware. Yeah, I'm aware there's a starting tight end.

[Jason Moore]

So 35% of the targets have been vacated. That's the fourth highest number in football.

[Mike Wright]

So which is really Antonio Brown and a little bit of Jesse James.

[Jason Moore]

That is absolutely correct. Yeah. Lev wasn't on the field to absorb any, but last time he was was 85 receptions. So that's a lot of targets and receptions that this team doesn't have that it's had over the past few years. We've talked a lot about James Conner. Mike is as bullish about James Conner as a person can get. I have been, I've been tempering the excitement. I've said it before. I'm a 12 to 15 finish for James Conner. I'm not burying him. I don't think he's A bad player. I think it's going to be tough sledding for James Conner. You started to see it in the back half of last year. He was not a top six guy over that period of time, but he was also banged up.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And so I know James Conner is going to be the guy in this offense. I just don't know if being the guy in this offense is going to mean the same thing it did as when Antonio Brown was running rough shot over the secondary.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean if you look at what Le'Veon Bell did in the offense, he was never a huge touchdown volume guy. A lot of times he would get by with crazy passing work. Yep. An incredible workload percentage. You know, of the carries for the team.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think he. Did he ever have double digits on the ground ever?

[Mike Wright]

Not off the top of my head, no.

[Jason Moore]

97388 the question for me with James.

[Andy Holloway]

Conner, I think he is the guy that's going to inherit the role. I don't believe that they're going to go to some committee the way that some beat reply and we should mention some beat reporters do believe that they're going to go to a committee. I think Tomlin has been around the league long enough, had enough opportunities with different backs going down to know he uses a workhorse. However, we did see after James Conner came back when he got right back into that workhorse role that they, they used Jalen Samuel more in the receiving game than they did James Conner. And so when I'm projecting out Connor for this season, I think he is the man. I think he's going to have a great season. But if his touchdowns stay where love bells were historically and some of that passing work goes to Jalen Samuel, I'm a little bit lower. I still like, I still like James Conner. I think he's a good back but I've got him right now as my running back. 13 in half point PBR one of.

[Jason Moore]

The features of the ultimate draft kit that we put into our rankings is a risk factor for players. And so when you talk about upper echelon, look, every year in the first and second round you have busts, you have guys that look like they're going to be the best players in fantasy that drop off. I don't believe that Connor will bust but I think he is a higher risk factor because he does not have a track record beyond a season and the financial investment on Conor isn't what it is on other players. So Mike, do you think Connor is a risk in any Capacity or is that out of your mind as well?

[Mike Wright]

The risk to me for James Conner is only related to Antonio Brown. Can can Mike Tomlin, can Ben Roethlisberger and more specifically juju Smith Schuster, can they keep the offense trucking at as this elite upper echelon offense? Because before Antonio Brown was going off the Steelers were still great but there they weren't in the upper echelon when it came to offense, when it came to total yardage and total points. So the question to me is scoring opportunity for James Conner. He's going to be fed the ball a ton. I'm not really worried about Jalen Samuels. What you're talking about, Jay, is what the very, very last game of the season where James Conner had just come back from his injury and it was a game where it. If they won, it didn't matter. If they lost, it didn't matter. Like they won and they didn't make it in the playoffs. And that was the. Where Samuels came in, he got eight targets. James Conner still saw three targets in that game. So that's. It's hard to really.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean move forward with that type of information. No, I agree it's one game but I'm just saying we have a super small sample. But we did see that after Connor came back and it did not look like they were taking easy on Connor. He still had a ton of carries in that game is just interesting to me because we had not seen that kind of utilization with Jalen Samuel prior to James Conner getting injured.

[Jason Moore]

One of the reasons we like Dante Moncrief to have a, interestingly, a really good opportunity.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Now maybe you like, maybe you're a James Washington guy and you like him more. I think we like Moncrief, but one of the reasons we love him is because of what he's walking into. The Steelers wide receivers as a whole had more receptions than any other team in football last season. They had 283 receptions at the wide receiver position. I think that's why I think you just go and take a shot with a non juju option. Juju is not going up. Juju's not going to be getting and okay, yes, maybe he goes up five catches or 15 targets. His he was so cap. He's so high right now in career totals.

[Mike Wright]

He had 166 targets last year.

[Jason Moore]

That's my point. And so when you look at Vance McDonald, Dante Moncrief, James Washington, Deontay Johnson, I think you got to take a shot at a non juju option you believe in, if you believe that the Steelers are going to do what they've done.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So a little pushback on that. From, from my perspective, I think the reason that the, that the Steelers had the most volume, you know, the most yardage and targets for any wide receiver corps is because they had two of the five best wide receivers in the National Football League. We have a history where Antonio Brown was there with other secondary options that were good, not great, and they usually were not a top 24 wide receiver in fantasy by the end of the year. And juju to me, still has room to go up, certainly not in targets. I mean he could.

[Mike Wright]

But the touchdown, Antonio Brown. Sorry to cut you off, Jay, but Antonio Brown had back to back seasons in 2014 and 15. 181 targets, 193 targets. So it's, it's not completely outside of the realm of possibility.

[Jason Moore]

Although the comp there is ab, Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Right, the comp is ab. But I just wanted it that like I believe it is, it is very within the realm of possibility that juju is the number one wide receiver at the end of the year.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, he had seven touchdowns. Antonio Brown is a double digit averaging touchdown machine. And if he can end up getting to that point to where he's at 10, 11, 12 touchdowns, that puts him right in that number one wide receiver conversation.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, look, all my bins on this offense are in the negative capacity for the Steelers. I think that they're going to have. I think there's going to be a struggle for Conner to maintain his level of production. I think there's going to be a struggle for juju to establish himself as the one in this offense with the difference of coverage he receives, being on the outside more often. Yes, the targets are going to be there, but I don't think the offense is going to be as good. And look, Jason went on record last year with his big patriots. Beginning of the end. I think it's going to be a tough year because of a tough division, Baltimore and the Browns in particular. And I think that. I think juju is another player that has a wider range of outcomes than people believe. I think he's a really great player. Jason just said he could be the number one player. I think he could be someone that disappoints fantasy owners. I really do.

[Andy Holloway]

What would that be like? Wide receiver 15?

[Jason Moore]

I think somebody that could end up in the 12 to 15 range for sure. I mean, the targets are going to be there, but he's going to have to do he's going to have to score. Where did he finish last year as a fantasy wideout?

[Andy Holloway]

What was his depends on scoring format? Usually about six, usually around six.

[Jason Moore]

And where is he being drafted as about five or six right now at the wide receiver position? Either. I have that in front of you.

[Mike Wright]

So I have him a wide receiver finishing as the wide receiver nine last year.

[Jason Moore]

You haven't.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, he did.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

That's half point in half point he finishes a 9. Currently going 204, which is the wide receiver 7.

[Jason Moore]

So I would say that I think 10 is about where he, where he's going to end up. 9 or 10. I think it's why you were 6. Most people presume that it's going to be better for him to not to be the main guy. I think last year was really the ceiling for him outside of exploding at the tight end touchdown mark. But you guys, I mean, look, most people are in juju's corner. I get that he's a great player. I just don't know if he's can be a top three guy and we haven't seen it before. Does that worry you at all that you've never seen him without Antonio Brown on the other side very often? There's obviously been a handful of games.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Very small sample. But we do have, I believe, four games without Antonio Brown over the last couple of years. I do know that his numbers have been. Oh, oh, they've been wide receiver number one numbers in those games that Antonio Brown hasn't.

[Jason Moore]

No doubt, no doubt.

[Andy Holloway]

And the thing that we have seen on the field with Antonio Brown is that we've seen juju be a dominant NFL wide receiver. You know what I mean? Like you just watch he passes the eye test, you go, that's why we, you know, you say a star is being born because right off the bat, rookie year, you knew there was something special about this guy. Now he's got the opportunity to be Big Ben's number one honed in on target.

[Mike Wright]

And I'll say that on top of just saying now those targets are available, specifically red zone targets are available. Last year, Antonio Brown had the 8th most targets inside the red zone, 24. So I mean if those are up for grabs, I'm not saying 24 additional for juju, but you give him.

[Jason Moore]

He had the most in the league last year. Juju did. Juju actually he had 26 tied for the most red zone targets in football.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm doing this from memory. I don't remember if it was four or five he had four or five tackled inside the two yard line.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

So I mean he was very, very close last year to some more pay dirt.

[Jason Moore]

Look, I'm interested to see how he works in this offense in a different role. Most of the time when I watch that offense last year Juju was just wide open in the middle of the field, the crossers back and forth. So I'm excited to see it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, you know, for what it's worth anecdotal, but Reggie Wayne says he's worried for juju. He obviously went through it going behind Marvin Harrison back in the day with Peyton Manning. He was so excited to get his shot found out. It's harder than you think to be the wide receiver one. So that speaks a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

He's so very young to do it. I mean he's a 22 year old guy that look, he put a lot of pressure on himself last year. The fumble, that situation. You've got a mental game and a mental hurdle to get over. He's a hyper, talented player. I'm just a little more risk in my mind than some of the other upper echelon guys I think. Mike, when you were stating Tyreek Hill out, I was really shocked that you put juju up ahead of Tyrique myself because of that risk factor. But sure, it's not like Tyreek doesn't have a risk factor. How early is too early for the Vance dance, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

Oh man. How early is too early?

[Jason Moore]

ADP712 we're, we're getting to the point.

[Mike Wright]

Where it's gonna be too early for the van stance. If he keeps sashaying and shantaying his way up into the, if he gets into the sixth round then I unfortunately will have to be out. I mean like 7:12 Bagley seventh, eighth round is where I'm comfortable taking a shot on a potential breakout tight end.

[Jason Moore]

That's your Vance stance.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Despite finishing as the quarterback three last year, is Big Ben draftable in 2019? Sure, he's, he's draftable, but in New England, week one, three and 10 against Brady in his career. Do you want a quarterback to draft that don't want to play week one?

[Andy Holloway]

No, no. I was going to say forgot about if you're in a single quarterback league. I'm not drafting Big Ben. He's my 18th ranked quarterback and we've got plenty. I mean it's last year he played a full season. That's rare.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we need to talk about the Cleveland Browns.

[Andy Holloway]

The exciting Cleveland Browns.

[Mike Wright]

They are very Exciting.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. They start off against Tennessee at home, then they travel to the jets, then they're at home against the Rams, and then they're In Baltimore, the 7, 8 and 1 Browns, the 20 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Browns, get out of here. Odell Beckham Jr. Biggest addition of any team this offseason. One of the best players in football gets added to your roster. You pick up Kareem Hunt, who could play a complimentary role with Nick Chubb later in the season. He suspended for the first eight weeks. And then you've got Duke Johnson in the backfield as well. Baker Mayfield coming into his own. Absolutely did everything you could ever hope. A rookie quarterback after stealing the job viciously from hero Tyrod Taylor. Look, there's a lot of swagger how.

[Mike Wright]

When, when Tyrod went down in that game. Like, I wish I could hear Hugh Jackson going, fine, fine, fine, fine. We'll play the number one overall pick. Fine. Baker, I hope you're happy. Unbelievable that you get to go play. Look, then after that game. Well, I got to check the tape.

[Jason Moore]

We'll.

[Mike Wright]

We'll see.

[Andy Holloway]

Were you not watching the game?

[Jason Moore]

I forgot.

[Andy Holloway]

You got to go check the tape. As to whether or not. Baby, that's why I give the starting quarter.

[Jason Moore]

I give the Cardinals credit now because the Cardinals are just not. I guess there was one comment about we'll see who earns the starting job, but since that point, it's been like, okay, Kyler's the guy. Duh. Kyler's the guy.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Stop it.

[Jason Moore]

The Browns lot of swagger heading into 2019. Are they the next big thing? You've got so much to talk about, so much potential on the offensive side with Todd Monk and taking over at oc Freddie Kitchens and what he did with the offense. He's the head coach now. Beckham, Landry, Callaway. In Joku Chubb, it's out of control.

[Andy Holloway]

You have one of the best quarterbacks in the league, one of the best wide receiving cores in the league, one of the best running back cores in the league, and one of the best young up and coming tight ends in the league. If. If this offense can't get it together with the new offensive head coach, the offensive coordinator from the Bucks last year who shocked were, you know, top three across the board. It's kind of that air raid system. At least Monkins is. I believe they're still going to be running more of Freddie Kitchens system there. This offense should be moving.

[Jason Moore]

The question is it will move.

[Andy Holloway]

The question is, is it too divided? Is it with. With Odell Beckham, with Jarvis Landry within Joku. Can any of these guys be the complete dominant fantasy force that you hope they can be because they're just good players on a good offense? Or will the plethora of options steal away from. You know, obviously those three guys can't all catch touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

It's great for Baker. I mean, it's great for Baker to have those weapons. No doubt about it. I think it was hard to predict efficiency. Last year was a weird year for Landry in and of itself. Like, when you talk about the wide receiver core, you look up drops. I mean, he led the league in drops. I mean, it's Jarvis Landry, one of some of the best hands in football. His career catch rate was much higher every year prior to last year. Last year, somehow 54%. Previous four years. 69, 71, 66, 75. You don't know if that was getting on the same page with Baker. You don't know if that was.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, there was a. There was a big change when Baker took over. They started using him downfield and not using him as the Jarvis Landry really short.

[Mike Wright]

Just kind of lob it to him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And so I think that that makes sense.

[Jason Moore]

However, targeted more than any other player in football on 3rd and long.

[Andy Holloway]

They should. They whoops. Presumably you're going to switch that, right? He's not going to be the downfield guy anymore. He's going to go back to doing what Jarvis Landry excels at. Be that short intermediary guy because they've kind of got a wide receiver one here.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he previously excelled at looking at the box score, seeing. Wow, that's a lot of receptions. Oh, that's not a lot of fantasy points.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

That was where he excelled.

[Andy Holloway]

PPR machine. Only the one thing I'll say is like, I have worries, right. I just brought them up, splitting all the targets, splitting all the touchdowns, dividing it up between all these great players. But I don't believe that's fair because usually when you have teams that are great, right. The best offenses, and you don't complain about Robert woods and Cooper cup and Brandon Cooks and Todd Gurley and there's just too many good options, what ends up happening is they're just a great offense and you want all of the pieces. And I feel like my big hiccup is Jarvis Landry. I don't want him. I pass him on every draft. There's like no round. I'll draft him. And I hearken back to your, Andy, your thing that you always try to remind yourself on that. You've learned over the last couple years that wide receiver twos are on their team, are still really good fantasy options. So am I making a mistake here with Jarvis wanting to just not touch him because he's behind all these other options?

[Jason Moore]

Look, we haven't said a lot of positive stuff about Landry on the show, but there is the train of thought that Landry is going to benefit in a big way from Odell Beckham being on the outside, him coming underneath, and him having another year with Baker Mayfield and being far more efficient. And if this offense is cruising, you know, we talk about over and over again, you love all three pass catching options in Los Angeles. Love them. Okay. I don't. I don't know why we were boxed into the thought that there's one pass catching option in Cleveland. That's the worry. Because Landry's not kind of good at football. He's really, really good at football. So then you just talk about, well, they might spread it around a lot. Spreading around a lot works pretty darn well in Kansas City and Los Angeles. So it is. I think it's a. It could be a trap. It's not. I'm not predicting it because there's still. But it could be a trap.

[Andy Holloway]

Like, I mean, I. Sorry. You guys know the banana. Anytime you're excited about the Browns, you're always let down. And.

[Mike Wright]

And so it's different, man. This is a different.

[Andy Holloway]

I believe it is different because I. So. Because it is, I start thinking, like, what it comes down to is, do you believe in the coaches and do you believe in the quarterback? Yeah, that's what it matters. And I definitely believe in Baker and I am unsure about Freddy Kitchens as a head coach.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I believe in John Dorsey. I believe in the personnel. I believe in the. I belerve, I blurve, I blerve in the team. So, yeah, you're kind of marked a little bit. You've got a little bit of a stink stain on the franchise. It's hard to get that off in one year.

[Andy Holloway]

It is.

[Jason Moore]

Or two years. As the Browns, can Nick Chubb be your team's running back? One Mike, let's say you start your draft out with DeAndre Hopkins in the first, Nick Chubb in the second.

[Mike Wright]

I. I believe so, yes. Because even though the. The looming Kareem Hunt coming back Here in week 10 or so, you know, that's still plenty of time to get all. All you need out of Nick Chubb. Even I don't think it's going to be. Kareem Hunt comes in here. Let's say the Browns are, they're playing well, Nick Chubbs having a good season. They don't all of a sudden say, okay Kareem, you get in there and you're going to take 50% of the of the carries. Like that's just not going to happen. The football team will not move away from what is working. And I think that Nick Chubb is a sensational running back. And now if the Browns are actually on that precipice of being a good team, because I think that Chubb does need to be on a good team to really excel and be your running back one. So I think that he is worth the draft price. Even though you know you halfway through the season, you may be trying to figure out what your second half plan is, that still doesn't take me away from spending that early pick on him.

[Jason Moore]

He was only the starter in nine games last year and he was second in the NFL in 20 plus yard rushes. Saquon led the way, but Chubb, Zeke Mixon and Gurley were tied with 11 and that was not playing weeks one through six pretty much at all. He did score nine fantasy points fewer against top 16 rushing defense.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that makes sense.

[Jason Moore]

So look, they need to be a good team like you said, for him to have that opportunity. Are you interested in David Njoku before we move on to the Bengals?

[Mike Wright]

I am not really. You guys want to talk more about Njoku? I think he could break out. I just, I don't really see it happening. Do you believe that Baker can return on draft value?

[Andy Holloway]

He definitely could, yes. Do I expect.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think it's likely.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. I don't think it's likely. Just because you have to take him so high. He's a quarterback. In order to justify taking. Unless you're in a two quarterback league, if you're in a single quarterback league, in order to justify taking a quarterback high and missing out on a running back or wide receiver, they have to, they have to dominate and Baker certainly could. We just made the argument about this great offense Baker in.

[Mike Wright]

Once he was the starter, Baker was averaging 271 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game as a rookie.

[Andy Holloway]

That's unbelievable.

[Mike Wright]

Without odo Beckham, that's 4,300 yards and 33 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Before we move on, Baker has to do. He has to be Aaron Rodgers in this offense. He's not going to run the football very much.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

So one of the things that positions fantasy quarterbacks a little bit differently is that extra element of being able to run the ball a little bit. It's what makes desean Watson a potential number one type of guy. So Baker does have to stay efficient. He does have to throw a lot of touchdowns. He needs to be in that category of the high touchdown type of guy in order to be in that category. He could do it with those players. I mean, my goodness, he could have big plays saying.

[Mike Wright]

And if you look at Odo Beckham and Eli Manning, Odo Beckham was worth 3,3% to Eli's pass and completion, which that's not a small number to go from Baker Mayfield last year, who was a near 64% completion guy. If you get up just a. You get a bump of 2% because you have Oto Beckham.

[Jason Moore]

You should see Big Ben's numbers before he had ab.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

We were talking about this. They were worse than Derek Carr's without ab. So a good hall of Fame great wide receiver can go a long way.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

It's gonna be fun to watch. We're moving on.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, what's happening?

[Jason Moore]

This is for Marvin. Oh, the Bengals.

[Mike Wright]

We're playing this.

[Jason Moore]

Just say goodbye. I mean, 18 years deserves a song. Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, Andy liked him. Yeah, that's true.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know if I liked him.

[Andy Holloway]

You had a signed picture.

[Jason Moore]

No, that was Jackson. Now I know they seem like the same exact.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no.

[Jason Moore]

Level of talent at the coaching position.

[Mike Wright]

That was Jason. How dare you. That was. That was to win. Hugh Jackson.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, who Marvin Lewis hired. Yes. Okay. Oh, yeah. Okay. Okay. That's why.

[Mike Wright]

See, they are. They are connected.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. All right. My bad. Yeah. Look, they go from. We were talking about this beforehand. Right. You've got a 6 and 10 Bengals who Vegas says are odds on going to. You know, they've got a high probability of finishing near the worst in the league, getting that number one pick next year. You have for fantasy purposes. You're going from Martin Lewis, defensive minded head coach, very reined in on the offense to an offensive head coach, Zach Taylor, the protege under Sean McVay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Bengals are 100 to 1 with the bills, Giants, Lions, Bucks and Redskins winning the Super Bowl. Yeah, I didn't realize I had to double check to see how bad it was.

[Andy Holloway]

I would not make that bet.

[Jason Moore]

That would put the jets above them, the Raiders. So you are apprehensive about some of the potential output for this offense.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

The expectations. You said this might be the team that you would. You'd body.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it might be the team That I body in the sense that, look, not everybody's going to be good next year for offense. We only talk about the offensive side of the ball here, predominantly. And in the off season, everything looks rosy for most of the big names. And this team's full of big names. AJ Green, Tyler Boyd came out last year on fire. Joe Mixon, there are plenty of options here. But Zach Taylor, yeah, he sprayed on his spritz of Sean McVeigh's cologne and said, hire me. But we've got a head coach who has very, very little that we know about. You know what I mean? Like no track record, no history to draw upon. So is he a good head coach? I hope so. Is he a good coach?

[Jason Moore]

If only he had gone out there and lost a bunch of games in college, that would have been helpful.

[Andy Holloway]

But that's fair. But at least we know what kind of offensive output we have with Cliff.

[Mike Wright]

We know what we're getting.

[Jason Moore]

You got more of a track record.

[Andy Holloway]

So the combo of Vegas saying that, look, this team is going to be bad, they've got a new unproven head coach if the wheels start to fall off. I worry about having these players. I worry about even Joe Mixon, who I think he's such a talented back. Thankfully he's a pass catching back as well. So if they're down, they could still utilize him. But I think if AJ Green re injures himself, Dalton could get pulled at some point.

[Jason Moore]

What about regression for Tyler Boyd if Green is healthy?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. I mean, I mean, well, Tyler Boyd was better in the games that AJ Green played. Significantly better. So when we saw, you know, there's the misnomer of maybe, well, A.J. green missed games. That's just Howard broke out.

[Jason Moore]

That wasn't time together. My counterpoint to your point is that they already were all those bad things last year and we had a very nice output from Joe Mixon. I looked up a stat this weekend, 2.59 yards before being contacted out of the backfield. That's the kind of number you see with kind of the out shot out of a cannon type of guys. Philip Lindsey, Austin Eckler led the league in that category. I was shocked to see what Mixon did with his offensive line. They already stunk. 21st in rushing, 24th in passing. That would be my only counterpoint. Not to say, look, it caps their ceiling to be on a bad team most of the time as a fantasy owner, I'm out there looking for running backs on great teams with touchdown ceilings. Mixing. Last year you didn't know if he'd find his way around the goal line from week to week. That's a problem. His ceiling is a problem. I agree with you on that.

[Andy Holloway]

So let's talk about AJ Green. Great wide receiver, was dominating last year. You can't forget right when he started the season. I believe he was the wide receiver seven and just.

[Mike Wright]

He was the wide receiver nine in points per game through week eight before his injury.

[Andy Holloway]

And then he gets injured. But now he's been injured a lot. Usually below the shin. I mean, he's got ankle and feet problems. I'm just saying ankle and feet problems.

[Jason Moore]

He could have said foot.

[Andy Holloway]

He really could have gone toe problems.

[Mike Wright]

Nobody has ever said my biggest problem area is below the shin.

[Jason Moore]

I agree with you.

[Andy Holloway]

Sometimes it's feet, sometimes it's toes. Sometimes I mean, there's, there's, there's a.

[Jason Moore]

Below the shin.

[Andy Holloway]

All below the shin.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what I mean? There's no knee problems.

[Jason Moore]

I do know what you mean.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just saying that people don't say that.

[Andy Holloway]

People will start.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Who's coming with me?

[Mike Wright]

Got a real phalange problem.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you guys fearful of injury with A.J. green? I am.

[Jason Moore]

I love A.J. green.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So I think A.J.

[Jason Moore]

Green, if I could get him in the fourth round of a fantasy draft, it is stealing. That's how I feel. And he's going around there. This last head to head Mike, mock draft, that didn't quite go as well for me as it did for Mike, in my opinion. Look, I took the gamble on green going at 402. He ended up going to like 311 or something. That just seems like theft for a guy that was on pace for 81, 12, 33 and 414 last year.

[Mike Wright]

I get it. I am worried that he will have problems below the shin as well.

[Andy Holloway]

See, but starting.

[Mike Wright]

But look, I'm gonna go for it. If I'm. If I'm at the back of the third and he's there, it's like, okay, you can get. These are the guys realistically in that range, then A.J. green. And if you want a wide receiver, A.J. green, Amari Cooper, Stefan Diggs. Who? Stefan Diggs has also had sub shin problems as well.

[Jason Moore]

Look, when you order a burger at McDonald's, Jason, you're gonna go for it most of the time. You're gonna be pretty happy. Every once in a while the mayonnaise is gonna be bad. But you take a shot sometimes.

[Mike Wright]

Sometimes. Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

Terrible analogy. It's probably. You're probably throwing up.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that's an appropriate reality. I feel like what you're doing when you're drafting Bengals is you're getting.

[Mike Wright]

You're going.

[Andy Holloway]

You're going to McDonald's. Yeah, look, it's.

[Jason Moore]

Food contamination is delicious.

[Andy Holloway]

You could be like, oh, I got such a value. This was like a value menu item. I got a number four. And then afterwards, it's gonna be like, oh, this is so good. Week one. Oh, this is delicious. You know what? I don't feel so good. I wish I didn't do that back in the draft. Why wasn't I smart? It just stayed with the good team.

[Mike Wright]

I should have got a salad.

[Jason Moore]

The risk is that they are not a productive offense, and that will. You'll have the mixing games where he gets all the volume and workload, but it's inefficient. Touchdown free performances. You saw it sometimes last year. He's a great player. But are you guys surprised there's not more hype around Zach Taylor? Because he seems like he has missed the. Like, he may have spritzed on the cologne of Sean McVeigh to get higher.

[Mike Wright]

It was.

[Andy Holloway]

Not.

[Jason Moore]

A lot of.

[Mike Wright]

It was watered down, though. I mean, he. He cut that thing at least 75% of water. So this was not a full. This was not a full spritz. This was not a full.

[Jason Moore]

I just.

[Mike Wright]

I met Sean McVay.

[Jason Moore]

He.

[Mike Wright]

He just got dressed, and he's got it. The cologne's still fresh, so it's rubbing off on me. So, no, I'm not surprised the hype isn't there. But if he can manage to institute Sean McVay's system and do it right, that is. That's a huge deal. Like the numbers I talked about with Todd Gurley, where you have. It's Todd Gurley, and you can't sell out to stop the run because the plays are designed so well. So that's. That is. That's the upside for the Bengals, even if they're bad, that the offense can still be churning out.

[Jason Moore]

Does that mean. Look, they only have 4.3% vacated targets. That's the second lowest in the NFL. These are the same pass catchers. Green Boyd, John Ross, who can, you know, say what you will about John Ross on his own, he's not a fantasy option. He helps your quarterback if he can run straight down the field. And Andy Dalton, there have been seasons where he has huge plays down the field. Is there a world where you're interested in Andy Dalton in any capacity?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Two quarterback leagues. You want to take a late Shot. I don't think that's a problem. Especially because in two quarterback leagues, you probably want to draft three quarterbacks just to be safe, especially if you're not going top end heavy, which I don't like to do. I'll grab three later quarterbacks. Dalton is definitely in the mix.

[Jason Moore]

Dalton or Carr, where do you lean between?

[Andy Holloway]

I lean car.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's right.

[Andy Holloway]

But it's slight, just as a. As a point, because we were talking about Zach Taylor in 2017. I just want to make sure everyone knows this. Okay. That was a long time ago. Right? 2017.

[Mike Wright]

Really long time ago.

[Andy Holloway]

Super long time ago. Year before last, he was hired as the assistant wide receiver coach for the.

[Jason Moore]

Los Angeles Rams and then quarterbacks and.

[Andy Holloway]

Then upgraded to quarterback, and now you're the head coach of a franchise. Go get him.

[Mike Wright]

Tight.

[Jason Moore]

I want to know how you. How do you get moved from assistant wide receiver coach to quarterback? And what do. What are they seeing with you on the field?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he was a quarterback in college, so he.

[Jason Moore]

No, you said he moved from the Rams wide receiver to quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, from the Rams assistant wide receiver coach. Then in 2018, he became the quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Coach under the same.

[Andy Holloway]

Under the same.

[Jason Moore]

Same office. So something he's. Was he doing something with the wide receivers where they're like, you know, where that could go. That could go in the quarterback room?

[Mike Wright]

Well, they just. He's friends with McVeigh and he's also. He's also a young buck like Jason. You realize we're older than Sean, than Taylor.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, 100%. That's 12.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's.

[Mike Wright]

Because we're so young.

[Jason Moore]

Close it out. Pristine deal of the day. Oh, the judge did well. The Pristine deal of the day. Nick Chubb signed Brown's jersey. $49 yesterday.

[Andy Holloway]

Nice.

[Jason Moore]

@Pristine auction.com use the registration code ballers to sign up and check out their hundreds of daily auctions. Guys, that is it for today's episode of the podcast.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, we made it.

[Jason Moore]

We made it through. Jason is back. We've got more episodes coming this week, and then we'll be five a week. Make sure you subscribe YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Iheart, anything that has the Internet.

[Mike Wright]

And we'll catch you next time. Foot Clan.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter @The FF Ballers.