Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: AFC South Breakdown + Hype Check, Dingleberries
Release Date: July 11, 2020

Introduction

In this engaging episode of the Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the intricacies of the AFC South division, providing crucial insights and analyses for fantasy football enthusiasts. The conversation also touches upon off-season acquisitions, player performances, and addresses listener questions in their mailbag segment.

AFC South Division Breakdown

1. Houston Texans

Performance and Key Players: The Houston Texans emerged as the division winners with a 10-6 record. Last season, they demonstrated resilience by coming back from deficits in eight or nine games, finishing with a balanced 4-4 in fourth-quarter comebacks. This was largely attributed to the performances of Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins.

• Deshaun Watson:
  Watson's dual-threat capability was a cornerstone for the Texans. Despite concerns about his reliance on scrambling, both hosts agree on his high fantasy value due to his passing efficiency and rushing upside.

  Andy Holloway [11:08]: "If we're talking fantasy purposes, Deshaun Watson...he throws touchdowns at a very high rate."

  Jason Moore [12:30]: "I trust Deshaun Watson to get it done. He could easily have more than [500 rushing yards]..."

• DeAndre Hopkins Departure:
  The loss of DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona poses a significant challenge. Hopkins was instrumental in the Texans' offense, and his absence is expected to impact the team's performance and fantasy prospects.

  Mike Wright [09:36]: "They lose DeAndre Hopkins. If you hadn't heard about that. Our thoughts."

Fantasy Implications:

• Will Fuller vs. Brandon Cooks:
  Both receivers are viewed as high-upside, late-round picks. Fuller’s injury history makes him a risk, while Cooks offers reliability but with similar draft positions.

  Jason Moore [13:43]: "Both Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks represent that...if one of them ends up inheriting a large target share."

• Running Back Concerns:
  David Johnson remains the focal point, with debates surrounding his efficiency and volume. The potential for Jonathan Taylor's emergence adds another layer of complexity.

  Andy Holloway [15:10]: "David Johnson...has a 3.7 yard per carry mark...phased completely out of the Cardinals offense last year."

2. Tennessee Titans

Season Outlook: The Titans, with a 9-7 record last season, are poised as divisional favorites. Derrick Henry continues to be a dominant force in the running game, contributing 21 rushing touchdowns. However, concerns linger regarding the efficiency of Ryan Tannehill, especially without key offensive line players.

• Derrick Henry:
  Henry's consistent performance makes him a top-tier fantasy running back, though his lack of involvement in the passing game limits his ceiling.

  Andy Holloway [18:21]: "...Derrick Henry doesn't carry the safety net of a pass-catching running back..."

• Ryan Tannehill:
  Tannehill's fantasy value is scrutinized based on home vs. road performance splits and his dependence on Henry's running game.

  Mike Wright [22:15]: "Ryan Tannehill is still a really good late-round target..."

Fantasy Implications:

• Draft Strategy:
  Hunter Henry remains a solid, albeit potentially limited, tight end option. The Titans' offensive strategy may not heavily favor tight end targets beyond Henry.

  Jason Moore [24:16]: "He's still going to be solid. But if the passing volume decreases, then you've got Hunter Henry light."

3. Indianapolis Colts

Team Overview: The Colts are highlighted as a team with significant question marks, primarily due to the transition from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissette, and then to Philip Rivers. Despite a promising offensive line and high draft picks like Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor, uncertainties remain.

• Jonathan Taylor vs. Marlon Mack:
  Taylor's high draft investment is debated, with discussions on whether his dependency could pose risks versus the undervalued Marlon Mack.

  Jason Moore [34:34]: "I think that's why he's not being drafted in the first round. But you do have to keep in mind the Colts didn't have a first-round pick."

• Philip Rivers:
  Rivers brings veteran experience, but his integration with new offensive weapons raises questions about offensive consistency and fantasy reliability.

  Mike Wright [38:11]: "Michael Pittman Jr. really fits the Mike Williams situation perfectly..."

Fantasy Implications:

• Running Backs:
  Jonathan Taylor is viewed as a high-ceiling pick despite potential early-season volatility, while David Johnson offers security with his workhorse status.

  Andy Holloway [33:49]: "The ceiling that Jonathan Taylor could hit is astronomically high for me."

• Wide Receivers:
  Michael Pittman Jr. and DJ Chark are considered primary targets, with doubts cast on their consistency and potential breakout performances.

  Jason Moore [38:27]: "He's totally the big-bodied high...talented wide receiver playing with Philip Rivers."

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Team Dynamics: The Jaguars are portrayed as a team in need of rebuilding, especially on defense. With Gardner Minshew stepping in as quarterback, and the acquisition of DJ Chark as a key wide receiver, the team's fantasy outlook remains uncertain but holds potential upside.

• Gardner Minshew:
  Minshew's sophomore season is under the microscope, with expectations of increased passing efforts and his synergy with wide receiver DJ Chark.

  Jason Moore [45:17]: "I expect those numbers to go up. So I like if you're in a two quarterback league. I love Gardner Minshew as my second quarterback."

• DJ Chark:
  Chark is lauded as the best fantasy option on the Jaguars, with his deep-threat capability making him a high-value receiver.

  Andy Holloway [43:11]: "I am so madly in love with what DJ Chark could be this year."

Fantasy Implications:

• Wide Receivers:
  Chris Conley and Keelan Cole are discussed as late-round gambles with potential upside, although consistency remains a concern.

  Mike Wright [50:46]: "I was going to say, I think we need clarity because you said you'd rather have Tyler Iford..."

Player Analysis and Hype Checks

Stefan Diggs

• Overhype Debate:
  Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about Stefan Diggs' fantasy value as a Buffalo Bill, despite his on-field performance.

  Andy Holloway [05:01]: "I've been like the most bearish on Stefan Diggs as a Buffalo Bill. I just, I don't get it."

  Jason Moore acknowledges Diggs' talent but agrees that he might be overhyped for fantasy purposes.

  Jason Moore [05:17]: "I think Stefan Diggs is one of the better NFL receivers out there...but those things can be true while it's still overhyped."

Jonathan Taylor

• High-Value Prospect:
  The conversation revolves around whether Jonathan Taylor is overhyped or a genuine top-tier running back prospect. While concerns about his early-season performance and dependency are raised, his potential to become a league-winner is emphasized.

  Jason Moore [34:34]: "I think we all agree with that. The beginning of the season, Jonathan Taylor is going to be splitting first and second down work..."

  Andy Holloway [33:49]: "The ceiling that Jonathan Taylor could hit is astronomically high for me."

Deshaun Watson

• Fantasy Reliability:
  Watson remains a high-value quarterback in fantasy, with his consistent touchdown rates and potential rushing yards making him a strong pick.

  Andy Holloway [11:08]: "For fantasy purposes, Deshaun Watson is going to be just fine."

  Jason Moore [12:30]: "Deshaun Watson can scramble a lot more than he has in the past."

Mailbag Segment

1. Drafting Second Quarterback in Two-QB Leagues

Question:
Kenny from Guam asks about the optimal timing for drafting a second quarterback in a 10-team, two-QB league.

Response:
Jason Moore outlines two strategies: aggressively securing a second QB within the first few rounds or waiting for value to present itself later in the draft. Andy Holloway emphasizes the importance of monitoring tier depletion rather than specific rounds.

Jason Moore [53:07]: "My second quarterback might be a Matthew Stafford and I'll just come Zombieland strategy."

Andy Holloway [54:16]: "Make sure you're paying attention to the tiers as they are being depleted."

2. Drafting Michael Thomas in PPR Leagues

Question:
Jake from Wyoming inquires about prioritizing Michael Thomas over running backs like Dalvin Cook in PPR formats.

Response:
Consensus among hosts favors selecting Michael Thomas over certain running backs due to his high target volume and PPR reliability.

Jason Moore [54:44]: "Yeah, I would take Michael Thomas over Dalvin Cook today... over Joe Mixon and Miles Sanders."

Jason Moore [55:07]: "It's unanimous. And a full PPR. I'm going to take Michael Thomas over Derek Henry."

3. Justin Herbert Nickname and Hunter Henry’s Value

Question:
Scott from Indiana humorously asks how bad Justin Herbert needs to be to earn the nickname "Justin Turdbert," followed by a question on how Tyrod Taylor's performance impacts Hunter Henry.

Response:
The hosts engage in humorous banter about Herbert's potential struggles, linking it to fantasy implications for Hunter Henry. They discuss the impact of Tyrod Taylor’s efficiency on tight end targets and Henry’s fantasy value.

Jason Moore [55:37]: "I think he just has to have one bad week."

Mike Wright [56:35]: "The impact of Tyrod Herbert on Keenan Allen has been discussed at length. How does it affect your view of Hunter Henry?"

Andy Holloway [57:44]: "I have to... I'm not drafting him at the price."

Jason Moore [58:21]: "Hunter Henry...we expect the total targets to come way down as a team."

Conclusions and Final Thoughts

The hosts wrap up by reiterating the importance of strategic drafting and staying informed through community resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit. They encourage listeners to engage with future episodes for ongoing divisional breakdowns and fantasy football advice.

Mike Wright [59:43]: "Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the_ffballers."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway [05:01]: "I've been like the most bearish on Stefan Diggs as a Buffalo Bill. I just, I don't get it."

• Jason Moore [13:43]: "Both Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks represent that because if one of them ends up inheriting a large target share that DeAndre Hopkins left."

• Andy Holloway [33:49]: "The ceiling that Jonathan Taylor could hit is astronomically high for me."

• Jason Moore [55:07]: "It's unanimous. And a full PPR. I'm going to take Michael Thomas over Derek Henry."

Final Remarks

This episode serves as a comprehensive guide to navigating the AFC South's fantasy landscape, offering valuable insights into player performances, potential breakout candidates, and strategic drafting tips. Whether you're a seasoned fantasy manager or a newcomer, the Fantasy Footballers provide essential knowledge to enhance your league performance.

For more detailed analyses and ongoing updates, join the Fantasy Footballers community at jointhefoot.com and follow them on Twitter @the_ffballers.