AFC South Breakdown + Hype Check, Dingleberries - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: AFC South Breakdown + Hype Check, Dingleberries
Release Date: July 11, 2020

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Introduction

In this engaging episode of the Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the intricacies of the AFC South division, providing crucial insights and analyses for fantasy football enthusiasts. The conversation also touches upon off-season acquisitions, player performances, and addresses listener questions in their mailbag segment.

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AFC South Division Breakdown

1. Houston Texans

Performance and Key Players: The Houston Texans emerged as the division winners with a 10-6 record. Last season, they demonstrated resilience by coming back from deficits in eight or nine games, finishing with a balanced 4-4 in fourth-quarter comebacks. This was largely attributed to the performances of Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins.

• Deshaun Watson:
  Watson's dual-threat capability was a cornerstone for the Texans. Despite concerns about his reliance on scrambling, both hosts agree on his high fantasy value due to his passing efficiency and rushing upside.

  Andy Holloway [11:08]: "If we're talking fantasy purposes, Deshaun Watson...he throws touchdowns at a very high rate."

  Jason Moore [12:30]: "I trust Deshaun Watson to get it done. He could easily have more than [500 rushing yards]..."

• DeAndre Hopkins Departure:
  The loss of DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona poses a significant challenge. Hopkins was instrumental in the Texans' offense, and his absence is expected to impact the team's performance and fantasy prospects.

  Mike Wright [09:36]: "They lose DeAndre Hopkins. If you hadn't heard about that. Our thoughts."

Fantasy Implications:

• Will Fuller vs. Brandon Cooks:
  Both receivers are viewed as high-upside, late-round picks. Fuller’s injury history makes him a risk, while Cooks offers reliability but with similar draft positions.

  Jason Moore [13:43]: "Both Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks represent that...if one of them ends up inheriting a large target share."

• Running Back Concerns:
  David Johnson remains the focal point, with debates surrounding his efficiency and volume. The potential for Jonathan Taylor's emergence adds another layer of complexity.

  Andy Holloway [15:10]: "David Johnson...has a 3.7 yard per carry mark...phased completely out of the Cardinals offense last year."

2. Tennessee Titans

Season Outlook: The Titans, with a 9-7 record last season, are poised as divisional favorites. Derrick Henry continues to be a dominant force in the running game, contributing 21 rushing touchdowns. However, concerns linger regarding the efficiency of Ryan Tannehill, especially without key offensive line players.

• Derrick Henry:
  Henry's consistent performance makes him a top-tier fantasy running back, though his lack of involvement in the passing game limits his ceiling.

  Andy Holloway [18:21]: "...Derrick Henry doesn't carry the safety net of a pass-catching running back..."

• Ryan Tannehill:
  Tannehill's fantasy value is scrutinized based on home vs. road performance splits and his dependence on Henry's running game.

  Mike Wright [22:15]: "Ryan Tannehill is still a really good late-round target..."

Fantasy Implications:

• Draft Strategy:
  Hunter Henry remains a solid, albeit potentially limited, tight end option. The Titans' offensive strategy may not heavily favor tight end targets beyond Henry.

  Jason Moore [24:16]: "He's still going to be solid. But if the passing volume decreases, then you've got Hunter Henry light."

3. Indianapolis Colts

Team Overview: The Colts are highlighted as a team with significant question marks, primarily due to the transition from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissette, and then to Philip Rivers. Despite a promising offensive line and high draft picks like Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor, uncertainties remain.

• Jonathan Taylor vs. Marlon Mack:
  Taylor's high draft investment is debated, with discussions on whether his dependency could pose risks versus the undervalued Marlon Mack.

  Jason Moore [34:34]: "I think that's why he's not being drafted in the first round. But you do have to keep in mind the Colts didn't have a first-round pick."

• Philip Rivers:
  Rivers brings veteran experience, but his integration with new offensive weapons raises questions about offensive consistency and fantasy reliability.

  Mike Wright [38:11]: "Michael Pittman Jr. really fits the Mike Williams situation perfectly..."

Fantasy Implications:

• Running Backs:
  Jonathan Taylor is viewed as a high-ceiling pick despite potential early-season volatility, while David Johnson offers security with his workhorse status.

  Andy Holloway [33:49]: "The ceiling that Jonathan Taylor could hit is astronomically high for me."

• Wide Receivers:
  Michael Pittman Jr. and DJ Chark are considered primary targets, with doubts cast on their consistency and potential breakout performances.

  Jason Moore [38:27]: "He's totally the big-bodied high...talented wide receiver playing with Philip Rivers."

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Team Dynamics: The Jaguars are portrayed as a team in need of rebuilding, especially on defense. With Gardner Minshew stepping in as quarterback, and the acquisition of DJ Chark as a key wide receiver, the team's fantasy outlook remains uncertain but holds potential upside.

• Gardner Minshew:
  Minshew's sophomore season is under the microscope, with expectations of increased passing efforts and his synergy with wide receiver DJ Chark.

  Jason Moore [45:17]: "I expect those numbers to go up. So I like if you're in a two quarterback league. I love Gardner Minshew as my second quarterback."

• DJ Chark:
  Chark is lauded as the best fantasy option on the Jaguars, with his deep-threat capability making him a high-value receiver.

  Andy Holloway [43:11]: "I am so madly in love with what DJ Chark could be this year."

Fantasy Implications:

• Wide Receivers:
  Chris Conley and Keelan Cole are discussed as late-round gambles with potential upside, although consistency remains a concern.

  Mike Wright [50:46]: "I was going to say, I think we need clarity because you said you'd rather have Tyler Iford..."

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Player Analysis and Hype Checks

Stefan Diggs

• Overhype Debate:
  Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about Stefan Diggs' fantasy value as a Buffalo Bill, despite his on-field performance.

  Andy Holloway [05:01]: "I've been like the most bearish on Stefan Diggs as a Buffalo Bill. I just, I don't get it."

  Jason Moore acknowledges Diggs' talent but agrees that he might be overhyped for fantasy purposes.

  Jason Moore [05:17]: "I think Stefan Diggs is one of the better NFL receivers out there...but those things can be true while it's still overhyped."

Jonathan Taylor

• High-Value Prospect:
  The conversation revolves around whether Jonathan Taylor is overhyped or a genuine top-tier running back prospect. While concerns about his early-season performance and dependency are raised, his potential to become a league-winner is emphasized.

  Jason Moore [34:34]: "I think we all agree with that. The beginning of the season, Jonathan Taylor is going to be splitting first and second down work..."

  Andy Holloway [33:49]: "The ceiling that Jonathan Taylor could hit is astronomically high for me."

Deshaun Watson

• Fantasy Reliability:
  Watson remains a high-value quarterback in fantasy, with his consistent touchdown rates and potential rushing yards making him a strong pick.

  Andy Holloway [11:08]: "For fantasy purposes, Deshaun Watson is going to be just fine."

  Jason Moore [12:30]: "Deshaun Watson can scramble a lot more than he has in the past."

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Mailbag Segment

1. Drafting Second Quarterback in Two-QB Leagues

Question:
Kenny from Guam asks about the optimal timing for drafting a second quarterback in a 10-team, two-QB league.

Response:
Jason Moore outlines two strategies: aggressively securing a second QB within the first few rounds or waiting for value to present itself later in the draft. Andy Holloway emphasizes the importance of monitoring tier depletion rather than specific rounds.

Jason Moore [53:07]: "My second quarterback might be a Matthew Stafford and I'll just come Zombieland strategy."

Andy Holloway [54:16]: "Make sure you're paying attention to the tiers as they are being depleted."

2. Drafting Michael Thomas in PPR Leagues

Question:
Jake from Wyoming inquires about prioritizing Michael Thomas over running backs like Dalvin Cook in PPR formats.

Response:
Consensus among hosts favors selecting Michael Thomas over certain running backs due to his high target volume and PPR reliability.

Jason Moore [54:44]: "Yeah, I would take Michael Thomas over Dalvin Cook today... over Joe Mixon and Miles Sanders."

Jason Moore [55:07]: "It's unanimous. And a full PPR. I'm going to take Michael Thomas over Derek Henry."

3. Justin Herbert Nickname and Hunter Henry’s Value

Question:
Scott from Indiana humorously asks how bad Justin Herbert needs to be to earn the nickname "Justin Turdbert," followed by a question on how Tyrod Taylor's performance impacts Hunter Henry.

Response:
The hosts engage in humorous banter about Herbert's potential struggles, linking it to fantasy implications for Hunter Henry. They discuss the impact of Tyrod Taylor’s efficiency on tight end targets and Henry’s fantasy value.

Jason Moore [55:37]: "I think he just has to have one bad week."

Mike Wright [56:35]: "The impact of Tyrod Herbert on Keenan Allen has been discussed at length. How does it affect your view of Hunter Henry?"

Andy Holloway [57:44]: "I have to... I'm not drafting him at the price."

Jason Moore [58:21]: "Hunter Henry...we expect the total targets to come way down as a team."

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Conclusions and Final Thoughts

The hosts wrap up by reiterating the importance of strategic drafting and staying informed through community resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit. They encourage listeners to engage with future episodes for ongoing divisional breakdowns and fantasy football advice.

Mike Wright [59:43]: "Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the_ffballers."

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway [05:01]: "I've been like the most bearish on Stefan Diggs as a Buffalo Bill. I just, I don't get it."

• Jason Moore [13:43]: "Both Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks represent that because if one of them ends up inheriting a large target share that DeAndre Hopkins left."

• Andy Holloway [33:49]: "The ceiling that Jonathan Taylor could hit is astronomically high for me."

• Jason Moore [55:07]: "It's unanimous. And a full PPR. I'm going to take Michael Thomas over Derek Henry."

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Final Remarks

This episode serves as a comprehensive guide to navigating the AFC South's fantasy landscape, offering valuable insights into player performances, potential breakout candidates, and strategic drafting tips. Whether you're a seasoned fantasy manager or a newcomer, the Fantasy Footballers provide essential knowledge to enhance your league performance.

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For more detailed analyses and ongoing updates, join the Fantasy Footballers community at jointhefoot.com and follow them on Twitter @the_ffballers.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, foot clan.

[Jason Moore]

You sitting at home? Sometimes you're like, oh, my gosh, I don't know what to do.

[Mike Wright]

I'm sitting at home all the time.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

Here's what you do. You get up on the Ultimate Draft Kit and you read up on these players and you get ready to dominate this year. Look, the Ultimate Draft Kit is available. It is up. If you want to see every single statistic we have on every player, every write up, every video profile you want, all the tools, the analysis, the research, get it now. Spend some time looking at this beautiful thing, this masterpiece of fantasy football. And you can get it at ultimate draft kit.com welcome to the fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in. Welcome in. Saturday, July 11, the fantasy footballers Podcast. Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike the fantasy Hitman. Right back with you for a third illustrious episode of the week. A Saturday episode.

[Andy Holloway]

Illustrious.

[Mike Wright]

Illustriously delivered. Hand delivered. Hopefully this game's great now. Yeah, yeah. The weekend's. The weekend's great now, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we did it.

[Mike Wright]

We should be probably. I mean, if it's corollary to us having a show, considering the state of the world, we should probably be having three to four shows a day based on what it is.

[Andy Holloway]

It would be too great. Too great.

[Mike Wright]

It could be a little too great. Welcome in. We have another divisional breakdown, the AFC south on today's show. Very excited to talk about these teams. I have questions that I need answered and so I'll be leaning on these two gentlemen, these illustrious minds. I'm just gonna use that word illustrious as often as possible. It's gonna be good. We'll get into some mailbag as well. Let me remind you, as Jason did, head over to ultimate draft kit.com you can get access. You get access to the app on your phone as well when you go to ultimate draft kit.com we're on Twitter @the ffballers instagram.com fantasy footballers and the community of thousands of foot club members. Illustrious community jointhefoot.com if you asked me to define the word illustrious, I couldn't do it.

[Andy Holloway]

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

[Mike Wright]

No, it probably does not. It's just long. It's just a longer word and I like longer words.

[Jason Moore]

I feel like it means shining brightly. That's how I view it.

[Mike Wright]

I think that's probably, that's actually probably the definition. Al Borland, Judge Giamatti, do you have any insight for us? A well known, respected and admired.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that shines bright to me.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's pretty good. My vocabulary is on point even if I didn't know it. All right, quick question of the day. Which off season acquisition will end up being the most overhyped? And obviously for our show, this is in the fantasy football context because I think that there's a big difference. There are off season acquisitions that will mean a lot to the National Football League team, but not to fantasy owners.

[Jason Moore]

Right. You know, when I think of moves that are overhyped to me, I look at the Bears and acquiring Nick Foles and how that's going to change it for everybody. You know, it's either going to make Mitchell Trubisky a great quarterback because of the competition and now he's really putting in the work, motivated, you know, Or Alan Robinson, you know, he's a top 10 wide receiver last year with Mitch, now he's got a Super bowl mvp. Look, Nick Foles is a perennial backup. He's an okay quarterback. I don't know that he's better for this team than Mitchell Trubisky. He probably is, but you know what I mean? Like, I think he's just kind of a neutral sideways move. And I've seen a lot of, you know, hype on Alan Robinson and David Montgomery of just the offense going to be a lot better. I don't know that that's true.

[Mike Wright]

Remember when Mike Glennon made Josh Rosens really good?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, exactly.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you could be right. We had a worst case scenario in that Chicago offense last year. I think that's why people still have confidence in Alan Robinson. But yeah, Nick Foles is not going to fix everything. He hasn't fixed everything. Wherever he's been and it's been a lot of different teams. I would probably bring up Stefan Diggs.

[Andy Holloway]

But you know that I will.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, really? Is that yours?

[Andy Holloway]

Of course. Come on. I've been, I've been like the, the most bearish on Stefan Diggs as a Buffalo Bill. I just, I don't get it.

[Mike Wright]

From a hype perspective.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. I don't get it.

[Jason Moore]

I think you guys could be right that he is the most overhyped. I don't think it's bad. I think Stefan Diggs is one of the better NFL receivers out there and he's amazing and he's going to help Josh Allen, he's going to help the Bills. It's a great acquisition. But those things can be true while it's still overhyped. Those things can be true while it's like, oh, now we've got, you know, a top 10 wide receiver Josh Allen's going to be an MVP candidate, yada yada.

[Mike Wright]

And I'll table this next name until we talk about this team on today's show. But Jonathan Taylor is one that I answered with a question mark here and that will really depend on on the average draft position of Jonathan Taylor in my mind. But there are leagues, there are many of them in which he is going very high. So we can discuss debate that shortly. You can follow us on. Well, you can subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify ad free on Stitcher Premium. Appreciate all the reviews supporting the podcast. And I don't think we have any news, do we? Brooks, got anything to talk about in the news department?

[Andy Holloway]

No sir.

[Mike Wright]

Different NFL teams are coming out with like percentage of seats that they're willing to sell to people potentially this year.

[Andy Holloway]

It's very bizarre. It's so I like, I don't know, I guess it's better for the NFL because they at least who was it that they just came out and said they'll sell 25% of their Jacksonville. So Jacksonville, they'll sell 25% of their seats. It's. They can make a little bit of money and that's, that's how they feel comfortable implementing safety protocols for fans to be far enough away from each other. But I'm telling you as one who's I've been to big games that are not full. The stadium is not full and it's I think, worse. I think the experience is worse than sitting at home, than having nobody there. Like I've, it's, it's not a wildly popular sport, but Arizona teams have been dominant in arena football. We have the Arizona Rattlers and they've won like so many of the super bowl version of the of arena football. I've been to many of them and there is no energy. It's, it's almost soul sucking the lack of energy because people want to.

[Mike Wright]

You just hear like smattering.

[Andy Holloway]

You just hear like a couple people clapping and the announcers trying to get people hyped and you're just. But you can't because there's so few people trying to fill this space with sound that it almost comes off as just as more sad. More, more sad and pathetic than, than actually energizing the players. Like, I mean maybe on the field it's a different experience. They would rather have at least some people cheering them on, but it comes off as really sad. Really, really sad when you're there.

[Mike Wright]

It's going to be a very Strange season, no doubt.

[Jason Moore]

Let's get divisional.

[Mike Wright]

All right, AFC south breakdown time starting with the Houston Texans, who won the division somehow. 10, 6. They. I read some stat about the amount of games last year that they were trailing in going into the fourth quarter and I think it was eight or nine of them. And they managed to go four and four in games where they started the fourth quarter behind, which is a testament to Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins and company.

[Andy Holloway]

It's also not going to happen again.

[Mike Wright]

Very. Yes, statistically that is an anomaly. Look at the Chargers. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

The Chargers two years ago had like where they were just winning all their one score games. When that flips all of a sudden you look like a bad team.

[Jason Moore]

And then they had a top 10 pick in the NFL draft. Yeah. The Texans were the only playoff team with a negative point differential, so. And they lose DeAndre Hopkins.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And he didn't, you know, certainly with what Tennessee did in the playoffs, it didn't feel like Houston was the division winner. They were. And you know, Bill O'Brien gets carte blanche again as general manager and head coach. Big changes this off season. DeAndre Hopkins departed to Arizona. If you hadn't heard about that. Our thoughts.

[Jason Moore]

Oh yeah, Hopkins, Cardinal.

[Mike Wright]

But Hopkins in those trailing games. No, no wide receiver had more first down receptions when behind either. He was such an important part of them coming back in those games. They add David Johnson, they add Randall Cobb, they add Brandon Cooks and you know, they are a team that has the luxury at this point in time of the lower paid quarterback and so they can fill up cap space at positions that other teams don't running back. And they've chosen to do so for this window that Bill O'Brien and MC. But let's talk about Deshaun Watson to begin with because you know, from a fantasy perspective, he was very good. Little bit of a, you know, we saw him run a couple great games together and then he disappear and then run a couple great games together. I think we all agree he's a very, very talented quarterback. Mike, you've spent some of this offseason talking about maybe the team has to depend on him more using his legs.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

If we're talking about fantasy purposes, I'm not off to Sean Watson. I think he can still get it done, especially with, with the wide receivers. He has. They, you know, they excel at stretching the field. And DeSean Watson, he throws touchdowns at a very high rate. This is just, this is who he is. The decisions that he makes on the football field have led to a higher than average touchdown percentage. And then he doesn't have the safety blanket, which that can. That'll turn into targets for David Johnson, no doubt. But I think he's going to have to scramble a lot more than he has in the past. And we could see some really elite rushing numbers, which for fantasy purposes means that desean Watts is going to be just fine.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I do have him rushing more this year as well, Mike. I've got him up near 500 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns. He could easily have more than that. He had seven rushing touchdowns last season on only 413 rushing yards. I agree. I trust DeSean Watson to get it done. And if this team is a little bit worse, you know, because of the personnel, for fantasy purposes, Watson will scramble, he'll dump it off, he'll throw it deep, and I think he's going to have a great season. I've got him as my quarterback seven right now. I assume he probably would have been in the top four if he had Hopkins.

[Mike Wright]

My. My biggest concern with Houston is that I think this team has every chance at starting 0 and 4. He has to adjust to new wide receivers. I think he will, but it's not going to be fun to do it on the road against Kansas City and then against Baltimore, then. Then on the road against Pittsburgh and then against Minnesota to begin the season. And so when you're trying to as a fantasy owner, you're sitting here going, okay, in most fantasy drafts, you can get a Will Fuller, a Brandon Cooks, at a discount, you know, compared to what a number one or number two in deshaun Watson's offense would produce. But you have to bet on one of them and you have to do it in the face of that schedule where you might not be able to kind of filter through those difficult matchups and say, I made the right choice. I mean, Will Fuller is. I believe they. He's on the fifth year option. They chose to pay him. We know that he has the existing rapport with desean Watson. And yet more discussion in the fantasy community comes out around Brandon Cooks. They're being drafted around the same spot. Do you. Do you think Will Fuller is being ignored for fantasy purposes?

[Jason Moore]

I don't know that he's being flat ignored. Everyone sees his upside, right? But everyone also sees him get injured left, right and center. It's a matter of can he stay healthy and are you willing to take that risk in the seventh round? The back of the seventh round looks like where he's going right now. Wide receiver, 35 Look, I've got both of these guys in my 40s in wide receiver rankings, but that doesn't tell the whole story. I think that when you are drafting in the seventh or eighth round, those are the type of guys that if you've built your roster with solid wide receivers already, you've got volume and you're looking for high upside. Both Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks represent that because if one of them ends up inheriting a large target share that DeAndre Hopkins left, then you know they're going to help you win games, win leagues.

[Mike Wright]

Last year, Darren Fells at tight end, who we've not talked about a lot, had seven touchdowns. He was the tight end eight. Through the first eight weeks, we talk about the 44% of the team targets vacated, which is the highest in the NFL with Hopkins leaving. Is Darren fouls a late round target for anybody?

[Andy Holloway]

No, he's, he's just the. He'll be on your waiver wire. And when you have to stream and hope that a guy gets a touchdown, then he's in that group. I'm not counting on him to be anything of a weekly starter for me.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Is there another discussion or debate on this team? I mean, David Johnson is the running back core. We've talked about him a lot. He's going in the fourth round right now. The first pick of the fourth round two consecutive years with, without being able to get over to that 3.7 yard per carry mark. Phased completely out of the Cardinal offense last year, but arrives with nobody else really behind him. It's the David Johnson, Duke Johnson experience in Houston. I can't wait to see how many people draft the wrong one in their different platforms.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's, that's a good piece of fantasy advice. When you're drafting D. Johnson running back for the Texans, be careful and make sure you're grabbing the right one.

[Mike Wright]

Look, the triple check people drafted Matt Barkley instead of Saquon Barkley. So if, if you've got the same initials, you're in trouble.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, same initial, same team, same position. Watch out. But you look at Carlos Hyde. Last year, Carlos Hyde had 245 carries, 1070 yards and six rushing touchdowns. You know, I think it's possible David Johnson is worse as a runner than Carlos Hyde right now because you just haven't seen him even hit 4 yards of carry in consecutive years. But while that's possible, you know, David Johnson has had far more juice. He's a hard worker and he's going to get the rock. I mean, he's guaranteed for 250 carries here, so the volume is secure.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And if he gets 265 carries and only rushes for 3.9 a carry, he's a thousand yard rusher. And we know that when there is a large vacated targets, it goes to the running back. And I think David Johnson excels there. You've seen Aaron Foster in the past with Bill O'Brien be used as a workhorse in both the rushing and receiving game. So like I like David Johnson this season.

[Mike Wright]

And does that same logic apply to Duke? I mean, if it's vacated targets and Duke has traditionally been their third down guy. I know that David is a great pass catcher, but Duke's getting on the field, is he not?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Duke will get on the field. I mean he was on the field last year with Carlos Hyde getting those. But the difference being that Carlos Hyde does not have that skill set. So I think there will be, it'll be much worse for Duke Johnson this year than last year because they'll want to keep David Johnson on the field. That's, that's my belief.

[Mike Wright]

All right, let's talk about the Tennessee Titans. They finished nine and seven last year, third in rushing yards per game. The Derek Henry experience was a mighty fine one for fantasy football owners. 21 rushing touchdowns, an improving defense made the playoff run. I think they have a great defense heading into the new year. They lost. Well, Delaney Walker retired. Marcus Mariota, he's gone. Ryan Tannehill paid and then they lose Jack Conklin on the offensive line. But when you look at this team, I think we probably all have them as the divisional favorites.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think that's fair.

[Mike Wright]

But at the same time, we do not have expectations for the kind of efficiency numbers that Ryan Tannehill put up last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, this. The Titans are very tough. Derek Henry is very tough. I'm like, I'm not betting against him, but I, it's like it's concerning to spend that high of a draft pick on, on a. He's a two down guy. I mean it's, it's been said over and over but that the truth of the matter is that's what Derek Henry is. He's not going to get the passing numbers that some of these other running backs are going to get. And when, like you, when you're drafting your quarterback, you want to make sure they have a rushing baseline most of the time because it just makes things so much easier for fantasy. They're that much safer. And Derek Henry doesn't carry the Safety net of a pass catching running back and you look at the numbers of what can happen. Like when Tannehill wasn't on the field, he was rushing for under 70 yards a game, still putting up very respectable rushing numbers. But he didn't transform into the fantasy monster that he was until they made the switch to Tannehill. And Tannehill was playing just absolute bananas football going crazy with deep completions to AJ Brown every single game, really opening things up. So that's just. I'm not betting against Henry, but I'm very hesitant every time I go to draft him as my first running back. You're as my first pick.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. It'll be interesting. I think he'll sign a contract by the way, before the season begins. That is I'm predicting that he extend. They extend him in the next couple of weeks. Jason, what were you going to say?

[Jason Moore]

I was just going to, you know, I totally understand the arguments here, Mike. It's what we've said for years. You want a guy who can't get game scripted out. Statistically speaking you need a pass catching running back if they're going to end up in the top. I mean it just very rarely ever happens without someone having a baseline of receptions. And Derek Henry doesn't have it. And I am 100% betting on Derek Henry. I'm not just not betting against him. I believe Derek Henry is an outlier. There are human beings that are just different and all the statistical analysis does not always apply to every single human. You know and I will say this, it's better when they win than when they lose. That makes sense for just about all first and second down running backs. Obviously part of that's going to be he already scored touchdowns to get the lead and part of that's going to be he, he's up at 25, 26 carries. But if you look at, you know, there was a stretch last year from week two through five where they lost three of four games. That was with Marcus Mariota. They're losing games, playing poorly. He was on a 316 carry pace in those losses. He's going to get the rock. So he's one of those guys where I don't, he's. When I say one of those guys, he's the only guy that I don't care about the receptions. Like I'm, I'm much more hesitant on Nick Chubb even though the upsides there. I'm not flat betting on him the way I would bet on Henry.

[Mike Wright]

I don't have a Lot of concern either with the offensive line turnover, with them investing the draft pick, losing Conklin, you know, with when he ran to the left, which was away from Conklin side, Henry was 6.5 a carry. The Taylor Lawan run to the left side. But Tannehill is. Here's an interesting split because the home road splits for Ryan Tannehill are worth mentioning. He was plus 9.97 fantasy points at home. So 28.12 at home, 18.15 on the road. And we brought this up with certain players before. Drew Brees, Big Ben come to mind. Is that something that fancy owners should be aware of because of where they're drafting Ryan Tannehill? I mean, right now he's a 12th round draft pick, the quarterback 18. So if you're playing the streaming game, are you avoiding him on the road?

[Andy Holloway]

No, Ryan Tannehill is still a really good late round target. I don't, we don't expect him to be able to continue what he did. But.

[Mike Wright]

Well, now that wasn't my question of whether he's a good target. It was whether you use that data to stream him differently. Because you're probably in the streaming category at 12th round, aren't you?

[Andy Holloway]

You are in the, you're in the category of if it doesn't work out, the investment was very low. So you can bail on him. But if you're drafting, like if you're drafting Tannehill, guess, guess where his first game is on the road. So if you're drafting him, you're playing him, you're not going to be worried about the home road splits, at least right away.

[Jason Moore]

To speak specifically to that, I'm not worried at all. He only had four road games after he became the starter and in some of those games there were, you know, those were three touchdown Derek Henry games. Okay, well, he smashed them. They, you know, it wasn't like he played poorly. So I don't worry about that small sample.

[Mike Wright]

All right. The other big fantasy names worth mentioning, AJ Brown obviously right now being drafted as the wide receiver 17, absolutely dominant last season over the back half. And then Jonu Smith. Do you think the A.J. brown is. Well, all the upside exists while the ceiling is, you know, top five, top three. Do you worry about the up and down type of performances you might get in this offense due to the Derek Henry focus?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't worry about it. Considering the draft price like it. I'm shocked and I'm very, very proud of the fantasy community that we've all gotten together and not over inflated the draft price. So wide receiver 17, like, yeah, you're going to have some ups and downs, but at that point of the draft, you're not. You don't think you're getting a guy who's putting up top 12 numbers every single week. At least you shouldn't.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah. And then Joni Smith, Jason has him up at tight end seven. I haven't. The lowest at tight end 19. Mike right in the middle. Tight end 13.

[Andy Holloway]

He's tough, man.

[Mike Wright]

He's tough. Yeah, he is. He's got so much potential and athleticism. And so those type of tight ends are always extremely tempting. Trey Burton and. And sometimes it works out. I mean, sometimes you do see those players emerge and break out. And Jonas Smith has had his fair share of monster plays. I mean, he's a great runner with the ball in his hands. I guess I'm not making the bet on Jonu this year the way Jason is.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You know, every now and then, every year, you have to see the tight end break out, who has the physical ability and the opportunity on the field to really take that step forward. And that's where John who, you know, he's still very young. He's crazy athletic. He's. I mean, to put him in the John who's in the Trey Burton field is unfair to. To. To John who? Smith. And, you know, I think the fact that he's coming into this season as the guy, he's not behind Delaney Walker, where he spent his entire career so far, they're going to involve him. And I could see him being the second target in this offense. At worst, third. So, yeah, I love taking.

[Mike Wright]

Is that because you don't want to utter Corey Davis's name?

[Andy Holloway]

I was just going to bring him up.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. That is because I don't want to utter Corey Davis's name. It's crazy. In our Scott Fishbowl draft, we're doing. We are. I mean, where. Where Corey Davis goes is in no man's land. Nobody wants to touch Corey Davis.

[Mike Wright]

All right, before we move on to the Indianapolis Colts, we want to thank today's sponsor, wgu. You won't stop working until you reach your goals. And neither will wgu. That's why they've created an online university for people whose ambition never rests. WGU's innovative competency based learning model was designed specifically to fit into the lives of busy adults. WGU is non profit offering online bachelor's and master's degrees in business, IT education and nursing. And you can move through the material you already know and spend time learning what you don't, which is the way to do it. A little bit faster and then you finish faster. It's about half the cost of most other online universities. So you can graduate with far less debt or none at all. And you can get your $65 application fee waived at WGU Edu Fantasy Footballers. That's WGU Edu Fantasy Footballers. All right, let's talk about the team that I think has in my mind maybe more question marks than any other team in the division and that's the Indianapolis Colts. I mean last year this is, we were just talking about this in the studio because we had a live show in Phoenix and that show was what in August. And I mean this was less than a year ago. That they went from the divisional favorites.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't believe you.

[Mike Wright]

With Andrew Luck as their quarterback to suddenly losing their franchise quarterback and being thrust into the Jacoby Brissette experience and completely dis just changing this team overnight. And so last year they go seven and nine, which again we, I think we all like in respect Frank Reich, the job he did. I mean 7 and 9 feels like a pretty good accomplishment considering the situation that they were put in.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

And so they, they were seventh in rushing yards per game. They were able to run the football. They have a great offensive line. They ended the 2019 season with a PFF graded third best offensive line. They are PFF's number one offensive line heading into 2020.

[Jason Moore]

They're amazing.

[Mike Wright]

Which is a music to the ears of their very not fleet of foot quarterback Philip Rivers, one of their big off season additions, bringing in the veteran Philip Rivers, Jason's favorite player. And then they also invested heavily on the offensive side of the ball in the draft. Michael Pittman Jr. Second round pick. Jonathan Taylor, many people's number one collegiate running back, maybe the best pure runner in college football in the second round. And so they lost Eric Ebron, they lost Devin Funches who they never really had. But this is a team that is in a position where you could, you could look very optimistically at this season. And what they, the weapons that they have is that. Is this the team that you think is most likely to threaten Tennessee at the top of the division or do you still like what Deshaun Watson can do?

[Jason Moore]

I think the Colts have a really solid team front to back. Their defense I think is young and very good. Their offense with that offensive line is great.

[Andy Holloway]

They are the Vegas favorites currently. If you're sorry. Vegas has them projected at nine wins. I don't know if we've mentioned that.

[Jason Moore]

This, this should be a solid team. And when I look at what Philip Rivers does for this team, it's, it's fantastic. It's the exact opposite of what we often say to me, you know, we'll talk about CD Lamb comes in and it's not great for him, but it's great for Dak. These pieces that are added, this is the opposite. Like I don't see this as a, you know, all these great pieces. Ty Hilton and you know, pass catching running backs out of the backfield and Paris Campbell and Michael Pittman. I don't see them as an upgrade for Philip Rivers because last year he had Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry for pardon Mike Williams and Austin Eckler, but he is such an upgrade over Jacoby Brissette for these fantasy options that I'm willing to trust Ty Hilton and Jonathan Taylor. You're possibly most overhyped.

[Mike Wright]

Is that you pooping on me?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, that's what I said to you.

[Mike Wright]

Well, let me just make, let me just make the case for that situation. And look, I like Jonathan Taylor and if he's given the, you know, the lion's share of carries in this offense with that offensive line is going to be outstanding. You know, we know that Philip Rivers, the chargers, they ranked first, third and 11th in backfield targets over the past three seasons. This is not on a team that only had backfield targets. You had Keenan Allen, you had Mike Williams, you had Hunter Henry, you had the ability to throw the ball downfield to Travis Benjamin. He still prefers to throw the ball to the running back position. One of the questions that a lot of people have is whether Jonathan Taylor is going to be involved in that capacity. Not a lot of catches in at the collegiate ranks. Pro Football Focus credited him with eight drops on 50 catchable passes. I think he could, he could end up in that role. But they have a very dynamic pass catcher in Naim Heinz and they have two running backs on first and second down that are very good. Marlon Mack is a very good runner. He's. He had over a thousand yards, eight touchdowns at the fourth most rushing first downs in the league. And so it's just a matter of when and if Jonathan Taylor represents that fantasy gold for your team and when you draft him in the third round, you are dependent on Jonathan Taylor. So whether he's overhyped or not, I can't see the future. I don't know if Marlon Max is going to get banged up. I don't know if Taylor's going to get enough passing game work. My prediction is that he won't put you in a position where you're happy. You're dependent on him in the first half of the season.

[Jason Moore]

I think we all agree with that. The beginning of the season, Jonathan Taylor is going to be splitting first and second down work with Marlon Mack and then probably does not project this year to be the pass catching guy. Well, while I love Jonathan Taylor and if you want him you're going to have to draft him in the third. I think at the end of the year they're going to realize that as good as Marlon Mack is, Jonathan Taylor is a. You know, he's just a different level of human. He's 226lbs ran sub 4 4. He is. He's just something that you can't replicate with another. With another guy. And I do think he'll win the job and be really good for fantasy towards the second half of the season. I don't usually like drafting guys that are going to be better in the second half and worse in the first half. I want to get off to a hot start, make sure I make the playoffs. You can't win a championship if you don't make the playoffs no matter how good your team is at the end of the year. So I do see what you're saying in the overhyped because he's a third round pick and you might get off.

[Andy Holloway]

To a slow start and the offensive lineman we focused on it. But you can't undervalue what that means for a. For running backs and a good running back. Like that's this. This is Zeke stuff to me. I'm not. I'm fine making that comp. This is. This is Zeke possibilities for Jonathan Taylor where Zeke would have come in and he would lead the league in rushing yards per game. He didn't really get past. We had the one season where he really got off on a whole bunch of receptions. But before that Zeke was dominant. One of the most consistent running backs, if not the most consistent running back for fantasy purposes because he's good, like really, really good and his offensive line was fantastic. So I it. The. The third round. The end of the third round is very tough. Running back 21 though is when you put.

[Jason Moore]

It doesn't sound so bad when you say it like that. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

When you say running back 21 in context, it's not so bad. It's. It's just the upside of what Jonathan Taylor could be compared to guys compared to like the people who are being drafted as running back 20, running back 22. You know, right around him, the range of outcomes. That ceiling that Jonathan Taylor could hit is astronomically high for me.

[Mike Wright]

Is there a. For the sake of a fun exercise, If Marlon Mack didn't exist, John Taylor.

[Jason Moore]

Would be in my first round.

[Mike Wright]

Is Jonathan Taylor a top 10 pick? Is he a top 5 pick? With the offensive line and his pedigree.

[Andy Holloway]

I would draft him before Nick Chubb.

[Mike Wright]

He's very interesting. I don't, you know, depending on whether you can withstand those first few games of the season, I really do see a pathway for him. It's just with Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel, Saquon Barkley. Those are top 10 NFL draft picks.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, they were right away.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You know, he's getting the ball on day one. And this could be something where, you know, we're going to have a modified training camp. We're going to have a modified idea of what these teams are going to be doing. Because this would have been one of the camp battles where you're going like, I mean, we've all seen those pieces. When the news breaks and Jonathan Taylor's getting first team reps, you know, a week into training camp, you're going, oh, oh. And then his draft position shoots up. You're making more of a gamble here. You know, Marlon Mack is a player that is completely ignored in fantasy drafts because of the situation he's in where, you know that he's not going to get all of the work and Jonathan Taylor's the future. Are you both hands off on Marlon Mack in the eighth round where it's just like, no upside?

[Andy Holloway]

No, no. Certainly not in the same for Damian Williams where it's the exact same situation of. For running backs in Kansas City. I love Edwards Allaire. I think that I can make the same argument of his ceiling. But you have to make room for what if. What if you're wrong and like the fact that you can grab Marlon Mack and Damian Williams, who very well could be the starter for the first four to six games, if not more for their. For their teams, then, yes, I'm willing to draft him at running back 38.

[Mike Wright]

Would you actively look to target Jonathan Taylor is that third running back.

[Jason Moore]

I was actually going to say when you guys were talking about, you know, he's going in the third round and how roster construction matters here. I think Jonathan Taylor is. If you want to go running back, running back, running back. Yes. If you go running back, running back, running back, and he's your third running back and you've got Two solid guys already on the roster and then flood your lineup with, you know, quality value at wide receiver the rest of the way until maybe grabbing a handcuff late. That's how I end up with Jonathan Taylor on one of my redraft teams. Is that type of a strategy. And, and I think I'm going to be happy by the end. You know, I know he wasn't a first round pick, he wasn't a top 10 pick, you know, like, like these Zekes and Saquon. So obviously that's why he's not being drafted in the first round. But you do have to keep in mind the Colts didn't have a first round pick. And they, and when they, when they used their pick on Michael Pittman, they were really close to getting Jonathan Taylor there. They just wanted to get Philip Rivers another receiving option. And then when Jonathan Taylor went a couple more spots, they traded up, they traded back up to get Jonathan Taylor with their draft capital, he was only nine spots behind Clyde Edwards Allaire.

[Mike Wright]

So the draft, you're making the point that their investment was very high.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

But if as high as you can get. Yeah. I love Michael Keaton, all right. At the wide receiver position. We talked at length about Ty Hilton. He was one of my bounce back candidates on the show. We like him, I believe two episodes ago. Then it's, you know, it's a number of gambles, late round gambles. Michael Pittman Jr. Listening to Frank Reich and the offensive person, coaches talk about Michael Pittman Jr. This really, you know, I almost feel like he's being cliche. But he, he really fits the Mike Williams situation perfectly.

[Jason Moore]

I mean he's totally the big bodied high, you know, draft capital. Really talented wide receiver playing with Philip Rivers who's willing to throw it deep and into the end zone. That's such a good comp. It's, it's, it's so easy that it feels lazy.

[Mike Wright]

But sometimes it's matching up a little too much.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Sometimes the easiest answer is the right one.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And then Paris Campbell coming back is going to help this offense tremendously. He is very much a Devo Samuel type of, you know, you're going to see end arounds, you're going to see screen gameplay. He's a very dynamic player that could end up in the end zone more often than you would have thought at the beginning of the year. True. I'm excited about this team. I'm excited to see what Frank Wright can do with Philip Rivers.

[Andy Holloway]

And speaking of boring, but I think you'll Be fine if you're drafting him and you're playing him. Jack Doyle, I think will be a tight end one by the end of the season. It may not be spectacular, it's going to be boring. It's going to be blahness like. But it's granted new team and everything. But you have to look at Philip Rivers tendencies and he likes to target the tight end position. I mean, going back to Antonio Gates and certainly not seeing Jack Doyle is comparable to a Hall of Fame quality player of Antonio Gates. But Hunter Henry last year.

[Jason Moore]

Baby hands. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Ejecto on the baby hands. Yeah. Last year when Hunter Henry came back from his injury, he was 18% of the targets from Philip Rivers.

[Mike Wright]

Well, the Antonio Gates thing is interesting because Jack Doyle has the athleticism of a very late career. Antonio Gates and yet that, and yet that Antonio Gates very late season was heavily targeted even though he was a lumbering type of player at that time. And I don't mean disrespect to Jack Doyle, but Doyle is not what peak Antonio Gates was. No tight end ever was. But Doyle represents tried and true. Baby hands are not probably going to be targeted if we're looking at Naim Hines getting targeted like Austin Eckler. You have to look at Doyle and say, yes, he may get four of the most pedestrian catches per week, but that still says something for the tight end position.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Eric Ebron is gone. And as much as I want Mo, Ali Cox, Gigantor to break out and be a thing like, you have to bet on Jack Doyle being the main tight end for this team.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, you the main tight end. But we need to at least bring up the name for a second time on the same episode.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no, we do not.

[Jason Moore]

We do. They just went out three. He's not going to be the tight end. Three.

[Mike Wright]

Trey Burton.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, Trey Burton, who I believe was with Doug Peterson back on the Eagles, they went and signed him. You know, I'm just saying it's not just. If Trey Burton is healthy, it's not just going to be Jack Doyle there.

[Mike Wright]

Correct. I agree with that. Jacksonville is the last team from the AFC south we need to discuss. Last year was 6 and 10. This defense has been absolutely disintegrated from what it once was.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they got Thanos.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, I think they're all gone. I mean, everybody's gone. And now, you know, Class Campbell is gone as well. Their defense was 28th in the NFL in defensive yards per game. In terms of giving up to the opposing running backs, I mean, it's just, man, it's just not good. So, you know, when you look at the division and the fact that you have teams that are primed to compete. Indianapolis, Houston, Tennessee. This is really finding the fantasy gold in the midst of what might be a rough season. We like Jay Gruden. He's the new offensive coordinator. Replaced John D. Filippo, who, you know, had to deal with Nick Foles not there. And then it's Gardner Minshew and it's Foles, then it's Gardner Minshew. Doug Maran's still the head coach. Last year, this was. This was a place where you could find fantasy value. Gardner Minshew offered that at times as a streaming quarterback option. Leonard Fournette had an absolutely monster season. DJ Chark had a breakout season. Dee Dee Westbrook was a huge disappointment.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

When you came into last year, you were expecting Dede to be the guy to take the mantle as a fantasy producer for Jacksonville and he just didn't do it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

It.

[Andy Holloway]

There was the wrench thrown in that plan of Nick Foles.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Your hope of DD Westbrook relied heavily or mine, I should say relied heavily on Nick Foles being the starting quarterback for that team. So that it. And Gardner came in. He was great when he threw the ball down the field. DJ Chark quickly showed he can be one of the best deep threats in all football. The dude is gigantic. The dude is very, very fast. And he's being drafted as the wide receiver 23. I have. I don't know that there is a draft I have left yet without targeting DJ Chark and very, very successfully getting him on most of my team.

[Mike Wright]

He feels like a my guy to you. Tried and true.

[Andy Holloway]

I am so madly in love with what DJ Chart could be this year. And his draft price of. Of being drafted as a borderline wide receiver too is just madness to me.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And then, I mean, DJ Chark is by far the best fantasy option at wide receiver on this team. I agree with you on that. It's all going to come down to what Gardner Minshew is able to do in his sophomore season, sixth round draft pick. You know, it's not all roses for Gardner Minshew as an NFL quarterback, but that might not matter for fantasy purposes. One of the numbers I looked up, Sharp Football was discussing this. He completed 60% of his passes while his expected completion percentage was 65.8% per NFL Next Gen Stats. That was a minus 5.2% mark. David Blau, I was talking about that. Yeah. David Blau was the actual Only quarterback to do worse than Gardner Minshew because Gardner Minshew had a 7.9 yard average depth of target which ranked 28th in the NFL. So he had kind of higher completion percentage type of targets and did not meet the next gen stat expectation for it. So from a passing perspective there were some blots on his game, but he didn't throw a lot of interceptions. He's a great scrambler. He was very good when he went deep, even though it wasn't as often as other quarterbacks. And D.J. chark is a dynamic playmaker down the field and they had to play from behind last year. I think we all expect them to do it again this year. So, you know, I like him. I just know that things can go more sideways for a six round quarterback on a bad team than they can for other easier to predict quarterbacks.

[Jason Moore]

The nice thing though is that with Foals gone, they don't have anywhere to turn. So I think they are going to ride Gardner into the ground even if they are oh and 16 and then they will draft a replacement at the end of this year. But for fantasy, he was on pace for about 400 yards on the ground scrambling that baseline. Coming into year two. For a guy who you know is 16 game pace is 3,700 yards, 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions. It's actually better than that because some of those game logs were half games that were kind of split with Nick Foles. So for a rookie, those numbers are actually really good. For a rookie quarterback they're very similar to what Kyler put up. And Kyler's going super high in the draft. So you know, I don't expect him to be able to take that step forward like we expect with Kyler. He doesn't have the pedigree for a reason. But with D.J. chark and company there and with Chris Thompson out of the backfield, you know you talk about those, you know, those high target throws when you have a really good pass catching, running back as opposed to giving 100 of those targets to Leonard Fournette who is not great at that. You know, I expect those numbers to go up. So I like if you're in a two quarterback league. I love Gardner Mintra. Gardner, Gardner Minshew as my second quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think that context I can get behind. I'm. I guess I'm, I feel like I am not supporting the jorts the way that you both are.

[Andy Holloway]

Certainly not the way I do. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Maybe more as a risk aversion. You know, you say that he's going to be run into the ground. Doesn't mean you can play him for fantasy if he's out there every single week. So we'll see. Leonard Fournette last year, very good. I was looking at some of the breakdown of what his passing work was and 39% of his passing work came when being blown out. So this was that situation where they didn't have anybody else to put on the field. On third down, Leonard Fournette came in and accumulated the majority of his passing work while the team was getting its butt kicked.

[Andy Holloway]

If that won't happen again, if Chris.

[Mike Wright]

Thompson is that guy, then you should expect a significant downgrade on the passing work. Doesn't mean that Fournette doesn't positively regress in the touchdown category. And maybe, you know, he's being drafted as the RB15. When you look at Fournette at RB15 and then Jonathan Taylor at RB21, I think it was, you know, are you taking the shot on Jonathan Taylor?

[Andy Holloway]

Man, Fournette is. Fournette is so difficult because he, he should see like, he should see a monster workload. But there are so many of those, like just red flags accumulating of the team wanting to trade him, the team altering his contract so to take guaranteed money away that, you know, it really, really felt like if you had, if you had asked fantasy players in May, heading into the draft, is Leonard Fournette going to be the starting running back for Jacksonville? We would have said I probably but 60% chance that he is. Like there was a really high probability he wasn't going to be the starter. Which. Which just brings in huge concerns when you're investing a second round pick into a running back. Especially to me when Chris Thompson has joined forces again with Jay Gruden. Yes, Chris Thompson.

[Mike Wright]

I would take Jonathan Taylor.

[Andy Holloway]

Chris Thompson. Okay, perfect.

[Mike Wright]

I would do that. Number one offensive line in Indianapolis. 26th ranked offensive line in Jacksonville. Worst first down running back in all of football last year. Leonard Fournette, 2.7 A carry on first down, four broken tackles and maybe doesn't get third down anymore. And also too expensive.

[Jason Moore]

Also has a very rich injury history. He stayed healthy last year, but, you know, that's still a concern. That's still, that's still there.

[Mike Wright]

It seems like that's like a storybook. I mean, just a rich tale of injuries for Leonard Fournette. That's a good point, Jay. I mean, we've brought it up every off season and then he made it through a season and you don't talk about it at all. But for the wide receivers, for the.

[Andy Holloway]

For the other wide receivers like Chark is locked in. Chris Conley flashed a few times. We know that he is. His athleticism is actually very, very impressive. They added Leviska Chenault in the second round, who is a very dynamic player. Once you get in the ball, in space. Do you have. Are you drafting anybody else from this team or you're.

[Mike Wright]

I'd be more inclined to take a chance on Tyler Ifert than I would Conley Cole. And then the gamble at wide receiver. If you're looking at, you know, somebody that could be a little undervalued. They paid to bring in Tyler Iford. So I think that he could be just as, you know, I'm not trying to get more Jacksonville Jaguars on my team.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think.

[Mike Wright]

Don't hear what you're not saying.

[Jason Moore]

I was going to say, I think we need clarity because you said you'd rather have Tyler Iford, but make no mistake, you're not leaving any drafts with Tyler Ifert.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Make no mistake. I will not have any of these play. I mean, this is a. If you're in a Jacksonville only draft. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Then there's a chance that Tyler Ifert's on my team. I would rather have the gamble on Cole or the gamble on Conley or the gamble on Chenault.

[Jason Moore]

I would. If I had to take a show on one of them, it would be Chanel late just because.

[Mike Wright]

Over Dee Dee.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I would take him over.

[Mike Wright]

I'd probably go Dede.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I mean, Chanel, I guess they're both pretty much free. Chanel is undrafted in almost every league, so I'm just looking at a late round dart throw that could explode. I mean, Chanel is a big, strong, fast. You know, his athletic profile says maybe he could do something special. But I think we're. We're talking about these guys because we're talking about Jacksonville. And if we weren't talking about Jacksonville, we wouldn't be talking about.

[Mike Wright]

And don't. And Jacksonville fans, don't be mad at us. I mean, they have Vegas's lowest projected win total in the NFL. I would love to see Jay Gruden succeed. I would love to see Gardner Minshew succeed. Anytime a quarterback can fifth, sixth, seventh round, go out and earn a job, I'm all for it. I'd love to see DJ Chark have a great season. Those things could still happen with four and a half wins, which is what Vegas has them at. So let's do a little mailbag before we close this out.

[Jason Moore]

Mailbag.

[Andy Holloway]

Chris Conley had 90 targets, man.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah. Or not. Keelan Cole. Wasn't Dee Dee hurt for a significant part of the year? Yeah, Dee Dee went in and Chart got beat up. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

He chart got beat up a little bit at the end.

[Mike Wright]

I remember starting Conley is like a desperation flex. A couple of times he was a waiver guy.

[Jason Moore]

How'd it work out?

[Mike Wright]

It was, I think I was okay. One, one time you picked the week? Yeah. I mean, well, with those guys heard it was like, okay, Conley's the next man up and they paid him to come in there and play wide receiver. So I don't know, wasn't, wasn't cozy. If you have a question for the show, head to the fantasy footballers dot com. Click the Submit a question button or you can dial the voicemail hotline. 302464 TFFB. Let's go ahead and grab a voicemail. Question.

[Jason Moore]

Sup ballers?

[Mike Wright]

This is Kenny from the island of Guam. Quick question. In a 10 team, two QB league, when do you start drafting your second.

[Jason Moore]

Quarterback and who do you target?

[Mike Wright]

Thanks, guys. Bonjour.

[Jason Moore]

First of all, bonjour.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, yes, of course.

[Jason Moore]

I think there's kind of two strategies I employ in a two quarterback league and where I draft my second one depends on what I did with my first. It's either I'm going to spend the first four or five rounds depending on which quarterbacks go off the board, not taking a quarterback, in which case I'll probably double tap them. You know what I mean? My second quarterback might be a Matthew Stafford and I'll just come Zombieland strategy.

[Andy Holloway]

I got you, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Yeah, but sometimes I like the strategy where maybe in the early second you grabbed a good value on a good quarterback that dropped there. A Desean Watson drops a Kyler Murray and if that's the case, then I'm going to wait until most of the quarterbacks are gone and grab one of the, you know, grab someone like a Gardner Minshew who I can get so late to pair with a really good, good quarterback. That's how I approach it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And it's not what round you can get it in. Just make sure you're paying attention to the tiers as they are being depleted.

[Mike Wright]

All right, Michael Thomas question from Jake in Wyoming. I'm in a PPR league. At what point in the first round would you consider taking Michael Thomas instead of a running back? In other words, who's the first running back you would pick Michael Thomas ahead Of. Yeah, there are different ways to ask that question. What do you guys think? Are you. Jason, we did a mock draft. You took Dalvin Cook in the first round. Would you take Michael Thomas over Dalvin Cook today?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I would take Michael Thomas over Dalvin Cook today because Dalvin Cook is still threatening holdout. And even though he's great, I would. But I would take Michael Thomas over Joe Mixon and Miles Sanders. Nick Chubb.

[Mike Wright]

You know, it's a full PPR as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And full ppr. Here's the question, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you take Michael Thomas in a full ppr? Would you take Derek Henry?

[Jason Moore]

I knew that was the name you were coming up with.

[Mike Wright]

That's a brutal question. And I'll take Michael Thomas.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, it's unanimous. And a full ppr. I'm going to take Michael Thomas over Derek Henry.

[Mike Wright]

All right, here's a question from Scott in Indiana. He says, how bad does Justin Herbert have to be to become Justin Turdbert? This is a great question on this show. Nickname question. How bad does he have to.

[Jason Moore]

I think he just has to have one bad week.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, one bad week on this show. Come on. When it's a low hanging poop joke, we're gonna take it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. But actually, let's be honest.

[Mike Wright]

Like a dingleberry. Yeah, I got you.

[Jason Moore]

Let's dive a little deeper here because if he comes out and is not good, we're not going to throw him under the bus. It's only after he has expectation and then lets you down. Right. Because, like, maybe he comes out, has this great game and everybody streams him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. He's gonna poop in his big boy pants. Yeah, he's gonna be Justin Turdbert a lot.

[Mike Wright]

It's so unfair.

[Andy Holloway]

The man has heard that before. There's no question he's heard that. And this look.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it's either him or it's. It's Turd Rod Taylor. I mean, it's either.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man. We can get you no matter who you are.

[Mike Wright]

We can get you no matter what. We'll find.

[Andy Holloway]

Hold on, hold on. You got. Do you have a T in your name? Mm. You're going down. Oh, you got a P in your name going down here.

[Mike Wright]

It's over. Number. He has a second question a little more fantasy relevant. The impact of Tyrod Herbert on Keenan Allen has been discussed at length. How does it affect your view of Hunter Henry? A little behind the. Behind the scenes, Jason was pushing us pretty hard to get Hunter Henry as our tight end in the Scotty Fish. League. We did not give him his way. But, you know, looking back, Mike, do you wish we had.

[Andy Holloway]

I do.

[Mike Wright]

We have Jarwin and Herndon.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep. I'm perfectly fine with those guys. And because Jason wanted to bring up Charles Clay. Charles Clay. When in the time in Buffalo, Charles Clay was very solid for fantasy purposes. But there was a reason that Charles Clay had a nickname, and his nickname was Mr. Necessary because there was nobody else to throw the ball to. And Taylor is surrounded by talent. And Hunter Henry is a very talented tight end. He's just. Is. He's in that group of. I don't have full confidence in this tight end to be good, so I'm not drafting him at the. At the price.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, he was a value in the draft when I was arguing for him at adp. I'm usually avoiding Hunter Henry. I expect he'll have about the same target share that he had, which was really, really good. But we expect the total targets to go come way down as a team, at least if Tyrod is the quarterback. So he's still going to be solid. He's always been good for fantasy when he's on the field. But if the passing volume decreases, then you've got, you know, Hunter Henry light. And Hunter Henry wasn't Travis Kelsey. He was. He was an okay option. So now he's an okay light.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. In terms of projecting. Projecting Tyrod Taylor, there's a statute of limitations in my mind on taking things that a player has done from a different franchise so long ago and projecting them forward. I just can't do it with Tyrod anymore because I have no clue what on earth he has left. It's just funny. He's. He was always a good fantasy player.

[Andy Holloway]

And honestly, he could be good like Taylor could be really good for fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

For the first half season. Unfortunately, due to my historical analysis of Tyrod Taylor on this show, you have.

[Andy Holloway]

To withdraw from the conference.

[Mike Wright]

I have to recuse myself from hyping him again. I may or may not have believed what you said in Cleveland.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

But I did not. Well, I did not. Then we have. We have. We have fully flipped our roles here.

[Mike Wright]

It's a wonderful ride, Mike. You're going to enjoy it quite a bit. Strap in. All right, that is it for today's episode of the show. Less than a week left to head to footclangiveaway.com and enter to win a signed Devonte Adams jersey. That's a nice one. Footclangiveaway.com completely free to enter a bunch of different ways head over there. That'll do it for today's show. Thank you, Foot Clan, for tuning in, supporting us. Enjoy the rest of your Saturday or whenever you're listening to this and we'll be back next week with some more divisional break ins. Thank you for tuning in.

[Andy Holloway]

Stay safe, everybody. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the Ffballers.