
The Fantasy Footballers Podcast keeps the divisional breakdowns going with the AFC South! Get an offseason recap and 2019 fantasy football preview for the Texans, Colts, Titans, and Jaguars. Can Deshaun Watson be the top fantasy QB? Will Marlon Mack domin
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Andy Holloway
All right, all right, all right.
Mike Wright
It's almost that time of year, the.
Andy Holloway
Time when I set the foundation for.
Mike Wright
Supreme and total dominance at my fantasy football draft.
Andy Holloway
How can I be so confident?
Mike Wright
Because I use the ultimate draft kit.
Andy Holloway
From the fantasy footballers man. It updates all off season, so I never worry about using old busted information. Consistency charts, auction values, full projections. Oh, baby, this thing's got it all.
Mike Wright
You want to keep it 100 for your draft?
Andy Holloway
Head to ultimatedraftkit.com and get your copy today. This is Melvin Gordon from the Los Angeles Chargers and you listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
Jason Moore
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Andy Holloway
Welcome in Weekend Edition. Oh, footballers.
Mike Wright
Melvin Gordon knows a lot about the Weekend Edition. Right now.
Andy Holloway
We got a great show today. We're going to break down the Melvin Gordon situation. Take a deep dive, make sure you know exactly what's happening because fantasy owners, Mike, Jason, they are freaking out.
Jason Moore
Oh, it's time.
Andy Holloway
Freaking out. So we'll break that down here at the top of the show, let you know what's happening. A lot of news. It's exciting, it's fun. Teams are in camp. The injury part isn't as exciting as the hype part of it, right? But this is the time of year as a fantasy owner of a team preparing for your draft, dynasty, league, whatever, you have to be willing and able and capable of laying down thy pride and moving your opinion around a little bit because you spend a lot of time, months, preparation, and there are going to be things that come out, information that comes out that's going to change the narrative that you've practically written in ink upon your brain. You need to get some white out, cover it up. It might be ugly. It's hard, right?
Mike Wright
Whiting out your brain hurts and yeah, very difficult.
Jason Moore
But it's need a drill. It's really true. I mean, we say all the time, stay water because you want to not just be so rigid that I like this guy, I like my take that new information doesn't change the equation. We want to help people win in their fantasy football leagues. That's why this time of year, what we're doing here is going through all the news that's coming out of every camp. I mean, this is the time for where news ramps up and some of it really doesn't matter and some of it really changes the equation. It's a matter of sifting through that. It's exciting times.
Andy Holloway
It is. And drafts are Coming. People are getting ready to go and you know, the Melvin Gordon situation will start at the top. And you can follow us heffballers on Twitter. We'll post breaking news, things that are happening. We'll retweet stories that are relevant to fantasy owners. But I want to start at the top with Melvin Gordon because I'll say a couple things. One, look, I still think that something gets done with Melvin Gordon. I still believe that. That being said, the news is trending in a negative direction from Helvin Gordon right now. And so as a result of that, the first thing I did when I got into the studio today had a bunch of players I needed to tweak for my rankings and one of them was Melvin Gordon. He needed to be adjusted because, yeah.
Mike Wright
I moved him down too.
Andy Holloway
Our rankings right now are prescriptive for your draft as if it's happening right now. Even if Gordon signs in two weeks, he will be adjusted back up. As of right now, he's somewhere in the lower 17. I don't remember where he landed 17 to 20 at running back now because if I drafted today, I don't have enough confidence in spending a first round picking him.
Mike Wright
No, you should not have confidence to spend a first or a second round pick because here is the lay of the land for Melvin Gordon. It is different than Le'Veon Bell last year. Levy on Bell was a franchise. He was supposed to be franchise tagged. He did not sign that contract. So he technically was never under contract, never facing fines, which Melvin Gordon will now face a $30,000 fine per day, per day that he skips of training camp. So that's money that will be taken away from him. Le'Veon Bell could, could hold out and then become a free agent. His his path was clear. There was nothing in the way. Melvin Gordon still eventually has to show up because he has played four seasons in the NFL. So he is eligible to be a free agent. However, he is still bound to the confines of the fifth year option. So he is under contract.
Andy Holloway
So if he, if he skips the year, guess what? He's a fifth year option.
Mike Wright
He's under contract next year.
Andy Holloway
So the only way that holding through the season would benefit Melvin Gordon is if he was certain it would force their hand to trade him. Otherwise, he's in the same situation, only without about a million dollars worth of fines that's out of his pocket. Plus 5.6 million, which is the fifth year option price from Elvin Gordon, his best bet. Logically, the way I understand the contract is to if you're going to play this out, if you're going to miss games, you show up halfway through the year, you accrue your season and you move on without being a charger going into next year. The general manager has come out, Melvin Gordon has come out. They have both dug in. The opinion out there is that it could lead into the season. The Chargers are not going to be the same team without Melvin Gordon.
Jason Moore
The Chargers can't afford. I mean it's just the thing is when you really look at this just from a logic and team building perspective, the Chargers, especially with their current stadium situation, they're not filling a 25,000 seat stadium. They cannot afford to pay Melvin Gordon what he wants. So this is going to be an inroads that lasts a little while. And Tom Telesco, their GM has said he's a charger, like we're not looking at trading him. And there's not a lot of teams out there with cap room that would sign him to a big traded deal. The only team that makes sense to me doesn't even have a gm. The Houston Texans would be a great landing spot, but they don't have a GM right now to work a deal. So this is an ugly situation.
Andy Holloway
It is I and we'll see what happens. You know, the second he agrees to term shows up at camp, he'll be number five running back adjusted right back up. But fantasy owners have questions about planning for Melvin Gordon situation. You might have Melvin Gordon, they want to know do I invest in Echler or Justin Jackson. You also might not have Melvin Gordon and you might remember last year when James Conner was a 11th to undrafted type of guy and everybody that did take the shot on him paid off in fantasy victories because Connor was the guy all year long. If I could tell you today, let's just presume Gordon comes back week nine or eight. If you could have a guy for eight weeks and get them at a value, who do you want? Do you want Echler? Do you want Jackson?
Jason Moore
I want Jackson for sure. Because Echler, look, they're both going to get a lot more work. I mean Echler will get more work without Melvin Gordon. But the difference for Justin Jackson between him with Melvin Gordon there, which he's going to be barely utilized and him with Melvin Gordon gone, he's going to be the primary downs back. I think we've seen that.
Mike Wright
They've talked to Mark Jackson.
Jason Moore
Yes.
Mike Wright
Oh, you think it won't be Echler?
Jason Moore
I do not think it'll be Eckler.
Andy Holloway
Eckler's got first team reps in training.
Jason Moore
Camp, but look at, look at the draft price difference. Echler is not only already starting high, but as Melvin Gordon stays out, he's going to continue to be the guy drafted early, whereas Justin Jackson is free in drafts. If you're drafting now, I mean, get him.
Andy Holloway
I would take the counterpoint, though, that if you wanted to take it with a different angle, Austin Eckler should have prolonged value through the duration of the return. So if you're going to reach for a player, like if you wanted to say, hey, I'm going to reach a half a round or around for Austin Eckler on the chance I get seven games of him being heavily utilized and then he's still relevant, that's kind of the count. I'm not saying I would do that.
Jason Moore
Necessarily, but, but reaching for Echler, if you're going to be reaching in a couple weeks, that's going to be, yeah, the fourth, the fifth round, you're, you're giving up good options. Reaching for Justin Jackson is like, I'm going to take him in the ninth, the 10th round. That's a, that's a big reach. He's in the 13th right now. But of course, ADP is skewed because this is new information.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that will definitely change. It's a tough situation because much like every one of these holdouts, the Lev Bell situation last year, you're just, there's a level of gamble that's taking place. We're not contract attorneys. Okay?
Mike Wright
Right.
Andy Holloway
We explain the situation as best as we know it, but there are complexities. There is leverage to be had. I think it's going to come down to Melvin Gordon laying down his pride a little bit. If he wants to lower that price tag, maybe he just wants to do what David Johnson wanted last year, get some more guaranteed money. David Johnson was a holdout threat in quotes before he came to an agreement last season. He was in a similar situation as Melvin Gordon. They came to terms. Jason, you certainly don't believe that the Chargers are going to open their money bags at all. I'm just, I hate dealing with these situations.
Mike Wright
So let me ask you this, Jason, because, I mean, we all have the stance that we aren't drafting Kareem Hunt because we know that he has an eight game suspension. He won't be back until week 10 because of the bye week. Melvin Gordon takes us the distance. He misses eight games. Are you, do you have the same stance as you are not drafting Melvin Gordon?
Jason Moore
I would, I would still draft Melvin Gore. Because the giant difference is when Kareem Hunt comes back is how involved is he? Is he the guy? It's Nick Chubb. You're having a, you know, a guy that's you're going to get in week 10 who might be a backup running back that you held all year when Melvin Gordon comes back, he is the Melvin Gordon star. And let's be honest, if he misses about four or five games, maybe that's good for him because he usually misses about four or five games. So then I'll be like, oh, now he can stay healthy the rest of the.
Mike Wright
Do you have a round? This is all new information. So do you have a round where you're. Where in your head you think, yeah, I'll take the risk that I'm going to be stashing a running back for eight weeks.
Jason Moore
Like if. Well, I mean, right now it's. You have to only go on what information we have now. So if I was drafting today and I don't know that he's missing eight weeks, I don't think he will miss that much. Maybe four weeks in, they work something out, I would probably be looking at Melvin Gordon like, man, fourth round. But he'll never get to me. Right now.
Mike Wright
Yeah, right now for me, fourth round is. I would just do it because the guys going in the fourth round, assuming that I missed Kerry on Johnson for speaking strictly running backs, they're all shaky as the fourth round running backs always are. So fourth round, I would. I think I would smash.
Jason Moore
You're on the clock there. Melvin Gordon, Derek Henry, you're taking Gordon.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I think I would take Gordon.
Andy Holloway
That's just what I would do. Right now, I'm the most optimistic, but the news has not been great. Posturing on both sides. We'll continue to track it. We're not even into August yet. And a couple things to get out there before we get into the rest of the news. Footclangiveaway.com Couple days left, signed Pat Mahomes jersey. We're giving one away from pristineauction.com that's probably the best giveaway we've ever had on a one off, like a one item thing. I was signed Pat Mahomes jersey.
Mike Wright
It's pretty awesome. And I will say, if you have already entered. We did. Recently we updated a way to get a couple points for the raffle.
Andy Holloway
Yes. To win. We did. We added another one in there. You can nominate us for the Streamys.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
And.
Andy Holloway
And you heard Matthew McConaughey.
Mike Wright
Oh, oh.
Andy Holloway
I heard him at the top of the show.
Mike Wright
Have you guys, look. Would you consider just playing that music over the entire podcast?
Andy Holloway
I was gonna say it's really the music when it hits.
Jason Moore
All right. All right.
Mike Wright
That's pretty good. I am instantly at ease. I am mellowed out. I'm ready, man. No tilting. You can't tilt with that music on.
Andy Holloway
No, no. It's really good to talk what I.
Mike Wright
Need in my life.
Andy Holloway
When you're making some Melvin Gordon decisions, you gotta have that going background. But he was talking about the ultimate draft Kit. You can get it right now@ultimate draftkit.com instant access app access. Huge updates coming to the app. You're going to be able to mark players off for your draft.
Jason Moore
Star them, kind of mark them like a void.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. You can draft them, you can hide them. You can do many more things that give you functional utility of the rankings and we're just upgrading and changing that each and every day. Ultimate Draft Kit.com A dollar goes to a dollar of every UDK goes directly to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. And I want to say this before we get into the news. We've had some people give us feedback on supporting St. Jude. We had some people that made a donation to St. Jude in our honor, so to speak, for our partnership with them. That happened this morning. And there was no way for me to write that person back and say thank you, but thank you for everybody that's been supportive because when you came to a live show and you bought a VIP ticket, you were supporting St. Jude. And so there are a lot of you out there that have made that decision to support them. And we're happy to be partnered with you and with them.
Mike Wright
We'll get into the news. I just have a little bit of breaking.
Jason Moore
News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.
Andy Holloway
This is the fun part of it. Put it on record. We are recording this show, the Saturday show, middle of the day, Friday.
Mike Wright
Right.
Andy Holloway
So if something happens beyond this breaking news from Mike, you will understand why.
Jason Moore
I hope Melvin Gordon signs.
Mike Wright
No, no, it's not that.
Jason Moore
It's just.
Mike Wright
It's another piece for our injury section. So I'll bring it up when we get there.
Andy Holloway
Also officially, no Zeke Elliott at camp today. So that is another situation that couple other holdouts going on. Michael Thomas, officially a holdout, did not show up.
Jason Moore
They are reportedly close about within a million dollars and on a five year extension.
Mike Wright
A lot easier to throw. A lot easier to throw a lot of money at a top level wide receiver than a top level running back. So, yeah, I expect Thomas back soon with a new deal.
Andy Holloway
He's just taking a very long Uber drive to camp. They need a little extra time. Circle the block right, See if they can knock it out. Zeke did not join the Cowboys, did not show up at camp.
Mike Wright
We'll see. He should be back soon.
Andy Holloway
We'll see what happens there. Couple of small signings.
Jason Moore
So real quick, I expect him back, but if you're drafting today, I'm still.
Mike Wright
Drafting him with full confidence.
Jason Moore
So, like, he's my one. He's my one on one.
Andy Holloway
What do you. Tie break Shaquan or Camara or McCaffrey? Would that be. Does he go number four for you now in that tier?
Jason Moore
Yes, that's what I was going to bring up right now. Zeke would have that little minuscule knock. Yeah, I mean, they're all great, so I'd rather avoid the risk.
Andy Holloway
Right. Makes sense. Packers signed Corey Grant, former running back of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Mike Wright
Yeah, likely a special teams move, but we'll see Corey Grant when he's electric. When he was healthy, man, he was a lightning bolt.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Dolphins signed Alan Hearns.
Jason Moore
Good for you, Allen. Wait, where's that drop? We need it.
Andy Holloway
I'm on the hunt.
Jason Moore
The perfect situation for this.
Andy Holloway
For what?
Jason Moore
For, I don't know, maybe we would call it something like mediocre signing of the week.
Andy Holloway
I don't think the wait was worth it.
Jason Moore
It was.
Mike Wright
It certainly was not.
Andy Holloway
But it's. We got a lot of drops. This is a hunting situation over here.
Mike Wright
So this is. I have been bullish on Albert Wilson's outlook. If he is healthy, which he is, he's like practicing on the side, getting planned days off. We will see what's going on with that injury. The Alan Hearns signing, I think is a backup plan that they just need to bolster the depth and in case Albert Wilson is not ready to go anytime soon.
Andy Holloway
Alan Hearns stinks. All right. Broken thumbs club. That's what my show doc says. Julian Edelman, Sterling Shepherd. Edelman's break happened a few weeks ago. Means his recovery is underway. He should only miss a few more weeks. He'll be fine for the season, says Ian Rapoport. Sterling Shepard just fractured his thumb in practice on Thursday. Pat Shermer says he's not concerned. Confirmed this morning, no surgery.
Jason Moore
The timetable for this recovery, according to pro football doc puts him. He says this is a realistic recovery. He should be good to go for week one. But it does. I mean, look, you're missing camp. You're missing all, you know, all the reps. So it puts you behind the eight ball.
Andy Holloway
Corey Coleman, Giants wide receiver. Same practice towards acl. Done for the year. No Corey Coleman, no Sterling shepherd for a while.
Jason Moore
Evan Ingram season. I'm just saying. Yeah.
Mike Wright
You know, I don't think Coleman really affected Ingram too much. If you are looking at deep, if you're, if you're going look deep, where you're. You're flipping the rocks upside down looking for grubs, looking for just nasty bacteria and you're in a. Look, it's dynasty. It's deep. I. In one of my leagues, I did go and grab Cody Lattimore, who should move into the wide receiver three position.
Jason Moore
Oh, the wide receiver three for Eli Manning.
Mike Wright
I gotta say, maybe don't worry.
Andy Holloway
Fifth target in the offense behind the tight end and the running back.
Jason Moore
Yeah, you don't need to do that.
Mike Wright
Just. We're just saying who does this actually affect?
Andy Holloway
Looking for grubs.
Jason Moore
If you're in a. I will say if you, in fairness, if you're in a 32 team keeper league, then I'm 28 starting spots. Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Calvin Ridley and Daeshun Hamilton both tweaked their hamstrings. Just pay attention. See if they come back to practice soon. If these things linger. Jason's brought it up before. Hammies, bad hammies can.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Ruin a season.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, it can be bad.
Jason Moore
So it's the one injury where this time of year, like right now, even though it's so early, I make a little note and I say put a little dot next to someone's name and worry about them or, you know, I'll up their risk rating in the ultimate draft kit because they come back. It's just hard. You rest and you always think you're okay. And then you come and then you, you go and you start practice, you get in the game and you tweak it again.
Andy Holloway
They certainly can. And I would say a guy to compound that risk rating would be somebody that has a history of that kind of an injury as well. You know, Ridley, Hamilton, up and coming players we need to pay attention to.
Mike Wright
So before we get into the more positive news, the players I was alluding to, both Derek Henry and A.J. brown left practice early. The head coach, Vrabel, says he's not concerned, but they left practice early, did not come back.
Andy Holloway
All right, other news. Hopkins, he's off.
Mike Wright
He's back, baby.
Andy Holloway
He's off. The pup. He's already back.
Mike Wright
Chris Carson, this one's interesting.
Andy Holloway
Confirms he's 100%. Entering training camp took a 40 yard screen pass and practice one to the house full sprint, healthy. That's ready to go.
Jason Moore
Great. That's great news. Chris Carson right now is undervalued in drafts.
Andy Holloway
Remember I told you I took Aaron Jones out of my my guys. Oh hey now Jay Gruden says Darius guys won't be limited at training camp. That was a hamstring injury after the big injury last year. Does this make you look at him again?
Mike Wright
Well, we'll see what that actual ADP is looking like. I mean you had the coach speak of Gruden was talking up Darius Geist and his pass catching ability saying that they didn't feature him enough in college. We'll see man. If the draft price is right, maybe. But he's close to just off the board completely.
Andy Holloway
All right. Buccaneers coach Bruce Arian says Chris Godwin.
Mike Wright
Quotes get the train going, man.
Andy Holloway
Come off the field ever. He's not coming off.
Jason Moore
He's kick. He's kicking when they punt. He's playing defense now. He's just. He's literally not allowed to come off the field.
Andy Holloway
Yep. And much to the chagrin of his friends and family. But Godwin, does this matter? I mean this is just hype.
Mike Wright
This is Bruce.
Jason Moore
Yeah, look, I remember Bruce matter because.
Andy Holloway
We knew he was going to play.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Bruce talks up all of his players and gives astronomical numbers. He'll say something like I want him to touch the ball 40 times a game.
Mike Wright
Back to the Andre Ellington. Yes.
Jason Moore
I mean yeah, this is hype that you can ignore. But Chris Godwin is great and there's a lot of extra targets to go around. He's moving to that Fitzgerald slot position that it wasn't just Fitzgerald, Heinz Ward. I mean there's a lot of the slot position's always been good and I am a big believer in Chris Godwin this year. But this that the never coming off the field is just a fluff piece.
Andy Holloway
Tampa may end up in the annals of history as the hype land of the past five years if things don't go the right way for Jameis Winston. Chris Godwin this year. Winston is the problem for Godwin 100%. So Godwin is great. Kaylin Belage took the first snap at running back during team drills on both Thursday and Friday. Comments.
Mike Wright
Yeah, this is definitely interesting if because this is this is not the normal Miami beat reporters which look that was happening about like Mike Kosicki.
Jason Moore
Well one handed cat you want to talk the last five years the annals of hype machine that's that's in Miami for sure. But yeah, this isn't that. This is. This is just reporting of play by play of what's going on. It was. He worked with the Ones for hours. Now Caleb Bellage or Kenyan Drake did get in with the Ones, but that was hours later and then they were.
Mike Wright
Both on the field together today. It would. Right now I have Calum Balaj projected for more carries, but I have Drake with more passing work. That's and he ends up as more valuable.
Jason Moore
I definitely this is one that is making me take a second look and adjust because I'm a big believer in the talent of Kenyon Drake. And you're going to book a room at the Bellage.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
I didn't tweak anything because I had them both for 175 carries. I still think that's the case. My belief in Balaj affected hype train for Drake more than it did thinking Bellagio set the world on fire. On an offense. It's not necessarily going to be amazing, but I did invest in Balaj about a month ago. Picked him up in Dynasty League. Needed a running back, thought he was worth a shot. Hopefully it pans out.
Jason Moore
Yeah. If you're drafted now, he's a great value super.
Andy Holloway
He could just lower the ADP of Kenyan Drake. Jason, if you're interested in Kenyan Drake in like the late fifth or something.
Jason Moore
I mean he's in the fifth now, so if it lowers him and he can drop down to like the sixth.
Andy Holloway
All right, all right.
Jason Moore
I'm probably still in on Drake in.
Andy Holloway
The fifth, but I could tell you right now I probably shouldn't be.
Jason Moore
I'll say that. I'll say that like foot clam. Don't follow. Follow my lead on Carry On Johnson. Don't follow my lead on Kenya Drake. I can at least see the, you know, the truth out there.
Andy Holloway
That was today's News Notes. I can tell you right now it's going to be a longer episode today. We've got the AFC south on the show. Make sure you check out the Sleeper app. It's a great fantasy sports platform. They're always working on it. We had the privilege of having them to our live show in San Francisco and chatting with them and they're working hard to make the best platform that exists on the planet.
Mike Wright
Yeah. And before we jump into the AFC south, want to thank today's sponsor manscaped number one in men's below the belt grooming. Look, fellas, I got it.
Jason Moore
We got to be real here.
Mike Wright
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Andy Holloway
That's not gas powered, right?
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Andy Holloway
Speaking of causing a ruckus. Yes. This deal that we've got from our other sponsor of today's show, Shady Rays, caused a bit of a ruckus on Social because the deal was too good. And that's not a joke. So if you need sunglasses, which most everybody does, and if you're in Arizona, it's.
Mike Wright
Do you live where there's sun?
Andy Holloway
Where there's a sun? Look, I've been a Shady Rays. I bought Shady Race for, like, three years before they ever booked anything on the show. I love them because I lose my glasses and they have great glasses and they actually last. And you can go get a pair of glasses and if you lose them, you just pay shipping and handling and they'll replace them for you if you break them or if you lose them. It's like sunglasses insurance. And I like that a lot, dad Proof. It's. Yeah, exactly. Doesn't matter what happens to them. You can't say that about any other provider. And this is the deal that people are freaking out over. This is the best deal they got. You use the code footballers. At shadyrays.com you get half off two or more pairs. So you basically get two pairs for $45 with the code Footballers. And then if you lose them or break them, they replace them, you get them again. So it's pretty much the best deal in town. Use the code footballers@shadyrays.com let's get into the divisional breakdown.
Jason Moore
Let's get divisional.
Andy Holloway
Hey, Judge, how you doing? Excellent. How you doing, Andy? I'm doing good. Is this our second to last Superman breakdown? Yes, sir. So we're almost through all of them? Yeah. We've got the NFC south to wrap it up. Why do we start with the afc? Why does the NFC get the second position? Huh? Swan. Alphabetical.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Hey, man, zz.
Andy Holloway
Simple as that.
Jason Moore
Good answer. Good answer.
Andy Holloway
Good answer. All right, well, if you haven't heard any of the previous episodes, the previous divisional breakdowns, you can check them out on the podcast, whatever, your. Whatever app you're listening to, you.
Mike Wright
Just.
Andy Holloway
Just.
Jason Moore
You've got one day left before we take them down.
Andy Holloway
No, no, we're keeping them up. So check them out. We're in the AFC South. Last year, the Texans won the division 11 and five. The Colts 10 and six, the Titans nine and seven. So three teams above.500 and the Jags, well, they let you down five and 11. Interesting division, interesting fantasy storylines for each of these teams. Last year, the Texans, and that's who we're going to start with. The Texans had the 8th best rushing yards per game. They could run the football. Deshaun Watson helps that quite a bit. Bill O'Brien and company. What are we expecting from this offense this year? I'm most excited to see three competent, talented pass catchers on the field at the same time. For Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Kiki QT. If you told me right here, right now, today, I'm gonna make a statement. It's gonna seem outlandish.
Mike Wright
Oh, man. Are you gonna beat me to it?
Andy Holloway
If those three guys. If you gave me 16 games, DeSean Watson will be the number one quarterback in fantasy football.
Mike Wright
I was just going.
Andy Holloway
Were you gonna say.
Mike Wright
I was literally gonna say, if all three guys stay healthy, Watson is one of the guys that can challenge Mahomes and end up as the number one quarterback. He.
Jason Moore
He is.
Mike Wright
He's a great player. He runs the ball. Third most rushing attempts and third most rushing yards at the quarterback position. That gives you a monster boost on a weekly basis. And what is. What's wild is how often they let him throw the ball inside the 10. I mean, 42 attempts inside the 10, that's the fifth most in the league. Like for.
Jason Moore
For what.
Mike Wright
What you feel like. The Houston Texans there and Bill O'Brien his DNA as a head coach of I'm going to. We're going to grind and no, they're letting desean Watson do what he has.
Andy Holloway
To do to score to add to your point. It's working.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
He throws a touchdown every 3.8 pass attempts in the red zone.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
So not only does he attempt them, they work out. It's the second highest percentage in the league. Only Baker Mayfield was better in the red zone last year on those attempts.
Jason Moore
The Houston Texans opened their camp this week. The first article that I read, the five takeaways from a great beat reporter there, the number one takeaway was on the goal line work the red zone inside the five was how good Deshaun Watson was. He was tearing everyone up, just snapping the ball, quick pass every single time a touchdown. Deshaun Watson has the dual threat way more so like I know Pat Mahomes can run, but his rushing ability in fantasy. I am very excited you want to talk about. Okay, Hopkins is here. He's great. But the player I'm most excited about is Deshaun Watson. The only problem is of course he plays quarterback. He plays quarterback in fantasy. It's just not worth drafting a quarterback early when you need multiple running backs and wide receivers and there's 20 good quarterbacks. But I want DeSean Watson. I need to play in a, in a 2QB league so I could take Watson.
Andy Holloway
So the huddle doesn't have Houston using either of their first and second round tackles that they invested draft capital in as part of that starting offensive line.
Mike Wright
They probably should.
Andy Holloway
Therefore they. I mean, they're basically dead last in the league as an offensive line and they have a quarterback that is comfortable outside the pocket and moving around.
Mike Wright
He also took the most sacks in football last year.
Andy Holloway
Exactly.
Mike Wright
You can't keep doing that.
Andy Holloway
So they invested. They invested two early picks on tackles.
Jason Moore
And Matt Khalil is back and he was dominating in camp. That's their left tackle. He was injured and is oft injured. So whether or not he can stay.
Andy Holloway
Healthy, not dominating too in his past, but it would be anything good if.
Jason Moore
He is a major upgrade for them.
Andy Holloway
No doubt. No doubt. So getting to the receiving core. So we say all that about Watson without a fantasy prescription. He's somebody that you know who's being drafted ahead of him at the quarterback position right now. Like what's his adp?
Mike Wright
Is he pulling that up?
Andy Holloway
Is he in the fifth? Yeah, he's in the back of the fifth. Back of the fifth round. So Deshaun Watson too hot in this, in this, in the late sixth, he drops to the late sixth, early seventh round with the potential of being a quarterback that can be number one with healthy wide receivers. Do you start to look at that sneaky value? It's not Mahomes in the third, it's Watson in the seventh.
Jason Moore
If I'm in a late round league where, you know, like we are our league, we everyone prescribes late round quarterback so everybody's ADP is pushed. I think that's really common. A lot of the people listening will play in those leagues. If DeSean Watson was in the seventh round, I'm taking him for sure because he is going behind Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers and I've got him right now as my number two quarterback.
Andy Holloway
Okay. So transitioning to the past catchers, we know DeAndre Hopkins is DeAndre Hopkins. There's not much to say about him. He's good. Draft him. He's great.
Jason Moore
Yeah. I mean really we don't need to discuss. He's one of the best three wide receivers and he will stay that way.
Mike Wright
Yeah. The thing to discuss is simply does.
Andy Holloway
It affect him if the other receivers are healthy?
Mike Wright
It does. It will definitely take targets away from him. He the past two years has been a 30 plus percent target market share guy. But last year Will Fuller had 45 targets. Kiki had 41. I mean those numbers would, would go up if those players are actually back on the field.
Andy Holloway
Last year we were saying the same thing. Now we suffered the injuries again, but we were saying the exact same thing about his target share. He probably deserves that target share.
Jason Moore
Yeah. And he's going to get it. Hopkins, I mean the target share might go down because of Kiki, but those aren't the valuable fantasy targets. Those are the short range stuff. In games that Will Fuller has played, Hopkins has. At least last season he had more fantasy points in the games that Will Fuller was playing than when Will Fuller was injured. I have no worries whatsoever about Hopkins. I don't think anybody does.
Mike Wright
No. Not being he'll still be elite. The question just becomes is he your number one guy or number three?
Jason Moore
Sure.
Andy Holloway
Will Fuller is going at 710 right now. When he's been on the field with Watson, he's been incredible. It hasn't happened very often. KIKI QT. I am shocked by this ADP. Absolutely shocked. The fact that Kiki is going at 907, which seems mind blowing to me for a PPR guy to go two rounds ahead of somebody like Anthony Miller in Chicago blows my mind. Like I don't like that value on Kiki at all.
Mike Wright
Oh, you in the ninth?
Andy Holloway
No.
Mike Wright
Oh, see, I'm perfectly fine with it.
Andy Holloway
Because the best case scenario for Kiki, I know he may be the peppered guy, but the touchdown upside isn't there with Kiki. So I guess I'm just a little surprised because he's not been and you know, he played six games in his career. I'm surprised that he's there.
Jason Moore
Personally, I think it's just because of what you saw in the first five games obviously as a rookie. The first five games before he went back down to injury, once he got on the field, he was on 125 target pace for 83 receptions, 874 yards as a rookie. So people are saying if he takes that step forward, but I actually like if it's a full ppr, he's obviously more interesting. But I do agree with Andy. I think that how many of those.
Andy Holloway
Games was Will Fuller a part of? Was it all of them? So we have Fuller variable. And then even if that projection that you just said came true, it's not that. Are you happy with 80 and 800?
Jason Moore
No. But you're hoping that, that as a rookie in the ninth round, second that.
Andy Holloway
Second ppr, it's a different story.
Mike Wright
Even, even in a half point ppr. I mean like around the ninth round, that's where you're just starting to take your shots on guys. And, and I. If Kiki, like I have him down for just over 20% of the. Of the targets and that's, that's very valuable for the efficient quarterback that Sean Watson right now.
Andy Holloway
I mean Kiki's going around mvs. Give me MVS all day long. Sutton is going behind Kiki. Westbrook, Samuel Tate. I don't want any of those guys. I don't want.
Mike Wright
Yeah, that.
Andy Holloway
I don't want him above those guys. Fair D Jacks. Here's a good one. Mike. Dante Moncrief or Kiki? Ooh, Moncrief is. That's two rounds later.
Mike Wright
Yeah, definitely a team, team makeup question for me.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, we don't have to talk about Kiki anymore.
Mike Wright
Sure.
Andy Holloway
Why do we feel so blah when we draft Le Mar Miller?
Mike Wright
So I took a look at Lamar Miller because it's insane. We all are like, you know Lamar Miller, he's been so bad.
Jason Moore
He sucks. He is the worst. He was supposed to be good when he got to Houston and he sucked.
Mike Wright
And since joining the Houston Texans, he is averaging the fifth most touches at the running back position.
Jason Moore
Yes, that's really good.
Mike Wright
Yeah. He has the fifth most rushing yards in the NFL.
Jason Moore
Wait, that's super.
Mike Wright
But here's the problem. Here is the problem for Lamar Miller. Five carries inside the five. Last year Alfred Blue had four. And just for some context of guys who I do not like freaking, Doug Martin had 11 carries inside the five.
Jason Moore
Like inside the five is Deshaun Watson territory.
Mike Wright
Main running backs get carries like the volume that Lamar Miller sees. He should be at least at double digit. When you break things down, he should be seeing double digit carries inside the five. But they don't, they go, they go to Sean Watson.
Andy Holloway
The cumulative numbers are not helpful for fantasy because the same numbers apply to someone like Jordan Howard who was thrown away for a six round pick. He's like the third most rushing yards over the last three years. They're not that helpful because it just means, guess what? Congratulations, you're a running back who had a starting job and stayed healthy for three straight years.
Jason Moore
Yeah, that does mean something.
Andy Holloway
It does mean something. Now that he helped me last year. Miller helped me a ton last year.
Jason Moore
The reason, and Mike brought it up, it's the touchdowns, right? Because if you look since he's been a Houston Texan, his 16 game pace, he averages over 1,000 yards rushing every single year. It's just he also averages only five touchdowns. So I think where he's going in drafts right now is great. I mean, look, he's not going to be a top five, top 10 running back, but he's going to be an RB2. That's helpful to your fantasy team. And he's being drafted very late because he doesn't have the upside. People are swinging their picks on, you know, pushing their chips in on someone who is much more volatile. They don't know what they're going to be yet, so they're excited about the possibility. If you build your roster knowing, look, a guy like a Lamar Miller in the mid middle, late rounds is a good plug and play, RB2 or RB3, great.
Andy Holloway
Much more stable than anybody going around him before and after. Lamar Miller is got James White, Tariq Cohen, Tevin Coleman, Rashad Pinney, Darrell Henderson, Darius Geist. The only one that if you made me bet my house on 200 carries, I'm only doing it right with Lamar Miller.
Mike Wright
Now speaking of the stability, Deontay Foreman, the backup running back will be now a full year removed from his ACL or apologies his Achilles tear, which it's eventually. I mean it took him out last year. He was, he was absolutely nothing. The Team let Alfred Blue go. They like the depth chart is really the Mar Miller and Deontay Foreman. Are you taking a late round shot on Foreman at all to see week one? Maybe he gets in there and he surprises you with his workload.
Jason Moore
I would love to take a late last Foreman.
Mike Wright
I'm talking to Andy. I'm not talking to the Foreman truther.
Jason Moore
Because I believe Foreman is a great running back and the ability to take over the backfield. I think exactly. The problem is he's in the ninth round right now. Like that's not that late. I feel like Deonta Foreman who last year had negative 7 rushing yards coming off of this injury as a backup. He shouldn't. I like. Like I want to take the shot the same way with Bellage Balaj sitting in the 13th round even before the news of him being. You know they should be going around the same place. So I'm not sure why Foreman's draft cost is so high. Right.
Andy Holloway
It's because of the meh feeling of Lamar Miller.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
And I do think that the team would love to hand the job off or part of the job off to somebody more that they'd view as more explosive and dynamic than Lamar Miller. Problem is we don't know if Foreman can do it coming off the injury. Sure look like he was going to before we got to move on the Colts at 10 and 6. The Colts start on the road this year. A couple games. Tough one to start the season against the Chargers. Then they go to Tennessee. Another good defense. That'll be an interesting.
Mike Wright
It will.
Andy Holloway
We might be buying low on on some Colts after a couple of weeks. Then they come back home against Atlanta and Oakland. Looking sunny.
Mike Wright
Looks a lot better.
Andy Holloway
Looking sunny for those. But look, this is a Great passing offense. Sixth in football.278 a game. It's also an offense that has an interesting amount of vacated targets. 23% gone. A lot of that has to do with just injuries and turnover at the wide receiver position. Outside of Ty Hilton, the wide receiver core Hilton funches Paris Campbell the ever present Dion Kane off season hype train of irrelevance.
Jason Moore
I think the GM Ballard there just really wants to be right that he was good. Like it's going to be irrelevant. He knows it's going to be irrelevant. But he's like yes. He see he's good.
Andy Holloway
I drafted well right now. Does it go ahead?
Mike Wright
Does the name Deon Kane being so close to Dean Cain.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Mike Wright
Former Superman. Does that have any impact on the way that people think about it?
Jason Moore
Certainly makes him more handsome. I mean, you know, Dean Cain, he upped that bar. You carry that name, Dean.
Mike Wright
And Dean Cain was setting the bar for all of us in the mid-90s.
Andy Holloway
I remember, still remember when Dean Cain stepped into the Monday Night Football booth for. For a game and was like a guest.
Jason Moore
How did I miss this?
Andy Holloway
This was at the peak of Superman with Terry Hatcher. With Terry Hatcher and Dean Cain. He stepped in, they interviewed Dean Cain.
Mike Wright
That show was fabulous.
Andy Holloway
And I thought how cool that Superman was in the booth.
Jason Moore
Oh, he could see so well.
Andy Holloway
Oh, he.
Jason Moore
I mean, it's unbelievable.
Mike Wright
For review, we go to Dean Cain.
Andy Holloway
The kryptonite here is that Dean Dion Kane appears to be approximately eighth in the kind of pecking order Hilton funches Campbell, Ebron Doyle Hines, at a minimum, above Kane. And so this team, and maybe Mo Ali Cox, this team is going to be great.
Jason Moore
So good. I mean, this is the team that I believe is, you know, right now I've got them as my super bowl champions.
Andy Holloway
I think now you've gone to champion.
Jason Moore
Yeah, no, I just.
Andy Holloway
Appearance before, it was, you thought, you know, get there. Now you've given them the title.
Jason Moore
Look, they have a great underrated head coach in Frank Reich. He is. He's fantastic. The only question at all is Andrew Luck and his health. Right now he's out with the calf injury, and I know they're taking it slow and easy because they saw what happened to Kevin Durant and they don't want to rush him back, but this is the same calf injury that held him out of OTAs like a month and a half ago. That's not normal, even for a heavy calf stream to be this long of a process. So it is. I'm not worried about it. I just said I think they're going to be great when the super bowl, but keep an eye on it. If another month from now he's dealing with a calf issue, that's weird.
Andy Holloway
Worth bringing up. I would contend that their defense would be the one thing that could get in the way of that super bowl title.
Mike Wright
They were good last year.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, they're all right. They're all right. That to me, they got it. That's what's got to step up. Keep protecting Andrew Luck. What a transformation between two years for this team. Not just with the offensive line, but.
Mike Wright
Brian Kelly and Quentin Nelson things. And I would say improved rap.
Jason Moore
And I would say Frank, because he's. He's utilizing Andrew Luck in the short pass and get the ball out quicker, you know, beforehand with Pagano. It was. It was hold the ball and launch downfield every time. And so I think. I think some of the play calling has protected Andrew Luck, made him a better, safer option.
Andy Holloway
Hilton is going at 302 right now, Mack at 303, Luck at 502, Ebron at 611. Do you believe that? One, this will be a top five offense, and two, whether Andrew Luck can repeat the 39 touchdowns?
Jason Moore
I believe yes, on both. I don't necessarily have him down for 39, but can he? Yes. I mean, Andrew Luck has already finished as the number one quarterback in football before he was drafted to do it. He has the most weapons he's ever had. I mean, he. Last year, his wide receiver, too. I know you guys have done like Dontrell in men.
Andy Holloway
That was the end of the year, too. He was a free agent addition because they had run out of people.
Jason Moore
They hadn't. But now, I mean, you look at the weapons and not only do you have Paris Campbell as this electric speed guy.
Mike Wright
Paris Campbell is great.
Jason Moore
Who can, you know, get it afterwards. You've got a big target in Devin Funches that they brought in.
Mike Wright
He's great at being big.
Jason Moore
And now they have.
Andy Holloway
They have four.
Jason Moore
Big, Tiny.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Oh, yeah. He's not the big man on Team.
Jason Moore
Tiny Guy because Gigantor, Mo Ali Cox.
Mike Wright
How much time am I allowed to spend talking about mo Ali Cox?
Jason Moore
20 minutes.
Andy Holloway
Yes. Well, we're gonna start a separate podcast. Sure. Called the Gigantor podcast.
Jason Moore
Let me ask this.
Andy Holloway
The podcast is over 8ft tall.
Jason Moore
You guys are big fans of Ty Hilton's. Yes.
Andy Holloway
I love the ADP.
Mike Wright
I was gonna say when you said Ty Hilton 3. What? 302 or whatever. Yes, please.
Andy Holloway
If you think I'm gonna pay for Tyreek Hill, pay up for Tyree Kill, where I can get Hilton at 302, you're crazy.
Jason Moore
But do. Should there be worry here? The fact that if Funches and if Doyle's back and Ebron's there and Paris Campbell is there. Ty Hilton has been the only guy in town for long stretches of most of his seasons for Indianapolis. Shouldn't those people cause Ty Hilton to not have the same market share?
Andy Holloway
Not at all. Because Ty Hilton's fantasy value is never hinged upon touchdown, efficiency, effectiveness. He's always been a six, seven touchdown guy. @ most, he's a yardage guy. I don't think those guys will have any effect on Ty Hilton being a go to yardage accumulator in the offense. I don't bank on any. Look, Ty Hilton to me is a guaranteed, if he's healthy, 1300, 1400 yard guy and then you just roll the dice with the touchdowns and Andrew, that's how I view it. I don't think this offense is any different from a touchdown threat standpoint. He's going to throw it to Ebron, he's going to throw it to Doyle, he's going to throw it to Mo Ali Cox. But yardage wise, Mike, do you have concerns?
Mike Wright
No, I don't because Andrew Luck is a 4,500 yard quarterback with, in the mid-30s of touchdowns with the ceiling of being even higher. So no, I think that Ty Hilton is absolutely locked, locked in and he's one of my, he's one of my favorite draft values at the wide receiver position.
Andy Holloway
Would you be comfortable with him as, let's say you go, I mean 302.
Mike Wright
If I go RBRB.
Andy Holloway
Exactly. Are you happy with him as your one?
Mike Wright
I would be, yeah.
Andy Holloway
Okay. All right.
Mike Wright
Let'S talk about, gotta talk about Marlon Mack.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, let's talk about Marlon Mack and the running backs. Let's talk about Marlon Mack and Naim Hines. Mack, you know, what is his ceiling? How many carries do you expect? And then Hines last year had the 10th most targets for a rookie running back in NFL history with 81 targets, 29 first down receptions. It's interesting though, I did see a little, a little weakness in Naim Hines statistical output that I noticed this morning. I like the fact that he's going to be targeted but when you looked at like yards after the catch from the running back position, yeah, it was not great, it was not good. Somebody you know who's number one in football is Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon was better than Austin Eckler and better than everybody else in the NFL. Eight yards after the catch of the running back position, Naim Heinz was near.
Mike Wright
The bottom and Hines was, I mean he was a product of opportunity. We talked about how the wide receivers were gone.
Andy Holloway
Now you're talking about Divorce Allen type stuff.
Mike Wright
And then Marlon Mack also missed a good amount of the season. So I mean Hines, I think his, he will still be used but I don't expect anywhere near the target share. Especially with the addition of Paris Campbell where Campbell excels at getting the ball at the line of scrimmage and making something happen for Marlon Mack after he returned from the injury he was averaging 17 carries, 80 yards and a full touchdown per game. But he was also only putting up one and a half receptions per game because Hines was the pass catching running back where that's troublesome for me is Mack will have to maintain his touchdown pace in my opinion to fully pay off of what his draft price is right now. So JD I mean with all of your huffing and puffing and getting hot and bothered about the Colts offense, do you think Matt can maintain that type of touchdown production?
Jason Moore
He's not going to maintain a touchdown a game. I don't have him as a 16 touchdown guy, but I do think he maintains a great total touchdown count on the season because he is their clear guy. If you look back at the season, we have to take context of how the Colts got off to such a terrible start. They were losing games. Andrew Luck was throwing way above his normal even, even his normal high volume count. Then Mack comes back, they start running the ball. They've got a good offensive line. Andrew Luck goes to a lower than his average on a 16 game pace passing attempts. They win non stop on the back of Marlon Mack and then they have all the extra picks in the world in the draft. They don't go after a running back. They have the most cap space in the league. They don't sign a running back. And why? Because they have their running back. It's Marlon Mack if he is healthy. I truly believe Marlon Mack is a great value. Like I know we've talked about the fourth round running backs carry on Johnson and that's pretty much it. But to me I throw Marlon Mack in there as a good value in the fourth round. Do I wish that he caught more passes? Yes. But he's not one of those players that just doesn't catch passes. That's going to end the year with 12 receptions. He could end the year with 30, 35 receptions and he's still, he's not game scripted out out although his production comes when they win games far more. But I have the Colts winning a lot of games.
Mike Wright
Sure.
Jason Moore
So if you're telling me I've got a guy who once he was back from injury we, you know, his third game on was on pace for 277 carries. There's not a lot of guys in the league that all right, we do.
Andy Holloway
Need to get into the Titans and the rest of this division. But first, Eric Ebron. Is double digit touchdowns for Eric Ebron still on the table with the passing game additions?
Mike Wright
No, not, not at all. To me I think Eric Ebron will be one of the most disappointing picks of this year's draft. He looked the natural regression that tight ends who have put up a season of 10 or more touchdowns since the year 2000. It's 13 players and I'm not going to go through all of them. But the vast majority, they're hall of Fame level players. Tight ends that followed up that season with at least seven touchdowns. The next year it's only five players and that's Gronk Graham, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis and Tony Gonzalez.
Jason Moore
And we were talking about do all the new weapons there hurt Ty Hilton. Andy brought up the fact that he's not a touchdown based guy, so he's going to get his yards. Whereas Eric Ebron was a touchdown based guy. If Devin Funches soaks up a couple mo Ali Cox soaks up a couple, you've got Jack Doyle back. Yeah, I mean that he's going to take a hit at touchdown.
Mike Wright
And here's one more crazy Ebron efficiency stat. Eric Ebron had 12 red zone receptions. Eric Ebron had 11 Redstone touchdowns. So he caught the ball 12 times inside the 20 and 11 of those were touchdowns.
Andy Holloway
You know what? He did it all for one man and that would be Jason.
Jason Moore
Thank you Ebron.
Andy Holloway
He had a magical season for one reason and that would be the vote of confidence that Jason had in him from the beginning of his natural life.
Jason Moore
In that case, Marla Mack, it's your turn. You do it for me this year. Look, from just to throw this out there because I think it's interesting from week six on, when Marlon Mack got back, from week six to 17, that's most of the season. Marlon Mack was the running back. Eight in half point PPR and he's in the fourth round.
Mike Wright
All right.
Andy Holloway
Last, last Chris Carson.
Jason Moore
Oh, Marlon Mac.
Andy Holloway
Last Eric Ebron Carson was much higher in that span.
Mike Wright
Last Eric Ebron stat.
Jason Moore
In that stat.
Mike Wright
He was not with touchdown reception leaders under with Andrew Luck under center. He had never had a player with double digit touchdowns. It was Hilton like Hilton was seven, Hilton with five.
Andy Holloway
You're saying for the Ebron factor.
Mike Wright
Yes. Ebron was the first one over 10.
Andy Holloway
Tennessee Titans 9 7. Last year battled through a difficult lost season for Marcus Mariota. Played with injury literally in every single game of the season. Had that ulnar nerve contusion. Probably didn't even say that right then. A downward spiral of multiple injuries. He had a stinger, he had an AC joint sprain, he had a strained oblique, he had broken ribs. He had a ruptured plantar fascia. It didn't go well and they still ended up at 9 7. I think they're one of the dark horse teams in the NFL. I have. I like what they've done in the offseason addition department, adding Adam Humphries, who by the way, I think caught the ball closest to the line of scrimmage of any wide receiver in football last year.
Mike Wright
Humphreys is great help for NFL teams.
Andy Holloway
He will help AJ Brown draft in the second round in a third round investment on a guard. I like what they've done on defense. I think this team is sneaky good. But that doesn't always translate to fantasy football and unfortunately I don't think it will at the wide receiver position. So let's start there. Corey Davis, A.J. brown, Adam Humphries, Tawan Taylor. Are you taking any shots on any of these guys?
Jason Moore
You just named too many guys for a low volume offense when it comes to passing the ball for me to get in on any of them. Because AJ Brown and Adam Humphries are going to take away some from Corey Davis. Corey Davis is going to take away a lot from those guys. There's too many weapons here. If there's one pass catcher that I might entertain from the Tennessee Titans, it's Delaney Walker.
Mike Wright
Old man Walker.
Jason Moore
Old man. He's got his Walker out and he's doing fine. He's, you know, he's activated. He didn't land on the pup. So because tight end is so bleak and we've got a long history of older tight ends and their 30s still performing for fantasy, I would entertain him late in the draft.
Andy Holloway
All right, how about the running back situation? Derek Henry, Dion Lewis, obviously you just talked about them leaving the field today. No indications that that's a major injury. So let's talk about Derek Henry. Set the league absolutely on fire to end the year. They just kept handing him the ball and it kept working. It didn't matter if everybody knew what was happening. But this is an offensive line that just lost their left tackle for four games, violating the league's substance abuse policy. Any concern for a slow start for Derek Henry? This. Their starting schedule is at Cleveland, then the Colts, Jacksonville in, Jacksonville in Atlanta. I think everybody wants to know what is the truth about Derek Henry.
Jason Moore
I think the truth is he's a good running back and I think they figured out how to use him and he's going to be a workhorse back on the ground. But he does not catch passes. That's not his forte. I don't think he's, you know, sometimes there's players like Marlon Mack. Marlon Mack I think is a fine pass catcher. They just don't utilize him in that that way. I don't think Derek Henry is Actually a good pass catcher. I think he's poor at it and they've got a great pass catcher beside him. So he's a guy that I think could end up with 15 receptions on the year. And that, that kills you. I mean that's one of those things where you can get game scripted out. If you're losing and if the touchdowns don't come or you, you know, you have inefficiency, which we've certainly seen from Derek Henry plenty, then you're, you're completely hosed. So that's why I'm really fearful to take Derek Henry. Even though I believe they figured out the right way to use him and they plan to, I think they're going to run him into the ground. So I mean, where do you guys stand on Derek Henry?
Mike Wright
I. The problem with the truth about Derek Henry is you have to pay a lot of draft equity to find out and I'm not willing to pay that price. Last year, yeah, the end of the season was fantastic. But it's not like they didn't try it before for Derrick Henry. Week two, 18 carries for 56 yards. Week three, 18 carries for 57 yards. He had, he had double digit carries seven times or so before the big one hit at the end of the season and things just went nuts. Where is that Henry running against worn down defenses? I mean there's a lot of variables.
Jason Moore
If you look at the ultimate draft kit, the 2018 consistency charts, they look so weird with Derek Henry because the.
Mike Wright
Entire first looks like a stoplight.
Jason Moore
The entire first half of the year is just completely red and then the second half of the year is pretty much completely green. I mean he started the year 57th, 41st, 42, 43, 43, 50. That's the rank among running backs. There's only 32 teams. Like he was terrible.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, it's complicated situation on the pass catching side. I can't put confidence in like I don't want to take a shot on anybody except for looking at Delaney Walker at tight end who seems like he's healthy. Joni Smith is not healthy. Walker is a safety.
Mike Wright
Walker's been great.
Andy Holloway
Mario with Mariota and Mariota, man, last year there were eight starts he had where he didn't even throw a touchdown. Eight starts. I mean until the passing offense proves something, Delaney's the only one that you look at and say, well, you know, I'm going to punt tight end, I'm going to grab a guy in the, in the, at the end of the draft that probably is not going to win me any weeks, but at least it's not going to lose me any weeks. And you know, I'm not going to face Kelsey and Ertz and Kittle every single week. So Walker will get me by.
Mike Wright
That's right.
Andy Holloway
That's probably the only passing game option I'm looking at. I'm not interested in Humphreys. Corey Davis's time has come and gone. He can have success for some other fantasy owner.
Mike Wright
He surpassed six.
Jason Moore
No, he can't.
Mike Wright
Only four times last year. But he had a couple blow up games where you thought, okay, this is it. This is when Corey Davis is going to turn the corner and finally become the player who the Titans thought they were drafting.
Andy Holloway
Mack and Henry, we have at the same spot right now. Our consensus.
Mike Wright
I would take Mack.
Jason Moore
Yeah. For you know where I stand.
Andy Holloway
Okay. They're probably not as heavy of a run team as the Titans will be, so I was curious about where you'd be as of today. All right. Let's talk about Jacksonville. Jacksonville starts at home against Kansas City. That'll be interesting. Put Patrick Mahomes coming off an MVP season gets to go play that Jacksonville defense and then they go to Houston.
Jason Moore
Oh, I'm glad you bring that up. And because Jacksonville is one of the highest drafted defenses out there because they're a great defense, but don't do it. Do not draft Jackson. Like just mark that down. Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Just don't drop them at all.
Mike Wright
Held Mahomes under control more than any other team did last year.
Jason Moore
I am not starting Jacksonville. Week one against Kansas City.
Andy Holloway
I don't recommend it.
Mike Wright
And then against Watson and then against Watson.
Jason Moore
No, don't draft the Jacksonville Jaguars defense in your fantasy league.
Mike Wright
Pick them up on waivers week three and four.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Because they play the Titans and then Denver.
Andy Holloway
This is a whole new. A whole new situation for Jacksonville. Did not work last year. Nick Foles has been brought in to lead this offense.
Mike Wright
They gave him a lot of money.
Andy Holloway
Leonard Fournette at the running back position and then you've got a wide receiving core that's pretty up in the air. Dede Westbrook is the only player on that offense at the wide receiver position that I'm looking at in drafts at all. High draft capital guy, talented player, explosive player. Checks those boxes for a guy that could, could, you know, be a nice sleeper, breakout candidate.
Mike Wright
He was tied for fifth in broken tackles at the wide receiver positions. I mean the guy can. The guy can be shifty.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. And then, you know, they have Keelan Cole. They got Marquis Lee. Marquis Lee still On the PUP coming off the acl, Keelan Cole, despite barely playing, still managed to almost lead the league in drops. And then DJ Shark. You know, he's a guy that has opportunity. They talk up Chris Conley a ton. I think Conley is interesting. I do too. Like when he's a physical freak, he just did not have that. It could be like Albert Wilson. Right. Wilson didn't have the opportunity under Andy Reid and they didn't pay him. Conley didn't have the opportunity. But as a physical talent, he'd be the sneakiest deep league kind of guy. But, I mean, come on.
Mike Wright
Yeah, yeah, there's. It would be shocking.
Andy Holloway
Kane or Chris Conley.
Mike Wright
I'll stash Conley, actually.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
But it seemed. It seems like it's a really long ways off. The question will be like the. My biggest question for Jacksonville, especially knowing Doug Marone, knowing the. The curmudgeon, the football curmudgeon that Tom Coughlin is why did they hire John D. Filippo to be their oc?
Jason Moore
The guy that got fired because when the. When the head coach wanted to run the ball more, he kept throwing too much.
Mike Wright
So when DeFilippo was the OC of Minnesota, which was almost the entire season, they were on a pace of throwing 645 times. In his earlier opportunity in 2015 with the Browns, they threw the ball over 600 times. And their quarterbacks that year were Josh McCown, Johnny Manziel and Austin Davis. So DeFilippo said, I'm not going to let the quarterback dictate how much I throw because I'm going to have him throw the ball over 600 times. Last year, there were only six teams that threw the ball over 600 times. I mean, like, that's a. That's a number. That's a volume that the vast majority of teams never even think of crossing. Now you have two very opposed philosophies in offense. Who wins?
Andy Holloway
Well, here's. We bring it up all the time. Where did they spend their money? They spent their money on Nick Foles. They brought Nick Foles in, right. They hired John D. Philippa. So they gonna throw the ball more than better than they did last year. Which makes Westbrook in the 10th very interesting if you want to take a shot there. Yeah, a flex guy. I would be very surprised if he doesn't contribute in a big way, at least in the right matchups, in the right situations. And somebody else will probably emerge in that passing game.
Jason Moore
Yeah. When I look at the wide receivers, it's too hard to Make a bold prediction on for sure it's going to be any one of those guys. I would lean towards dd, but the price of DD says you can take the shot. It doesn't cost you anything to make that bet and the payoff would be rather nice. Now the real question when it comes to the Jacksonville Jaguars is Leonard Fournette. Yep, Leonard Fournette has been one of the least efficient running backs. A lot's been made about that that he, you know, was so highly drafted so great in college, comes in and hasn't been very efficient. However, that does not matter. It does not matter if a guy's efficient, super efficient, inefficient if he is.
Andy Holloway
De efficient, a efficient, progressive.
Jason Moore
Progressive efficient, exactly. The point is he has been good for fantasy and been a high scoring fantasy option in the games he plays. So it's injury versus a good fantasy option. Do you think he can stay healthy? He's got a great offensive line.
Andy Holloway
Fantasy owners would do well to just reappropriate what Leonard Fournette represents to your fantasy team in your brain. If you can get him at a value and you no longer think of them as this anchor for your roster at the running back position, then you're fine. I think that's the truth. Don't think of him as the top tier upper echelon. You know, you've got more risk with injury suspension efficiency than you've ever had with him before and you just have to factor that into when you get him and where you get him in drafts. That's what I think it comes down to. I did want to throw it circling back for just a second. If Marquis Lee can get healthy, he's the player with the money attached. He signed the contract, sure, he's paid eight point, his annual salary is eight and a half million dollars. He's got 16 and a half guaranteed and he had a 700 plus yard season for this team. So I just want to throw it out there right now. He looks like you can't sift through the guys, but he's the one with money attached if he's healthy. Jason, are you. Do you view Fournette differently than I just explained or is that how you're viewing him? Or do you even get the privilege of viewing him that way because of his adp?
Jason Moore
You know, it's one. I don't. I think you don't get the privilege of viewing him that way because of his adp. You've just got to take the gamble, the health. Because if he's out there playing football. He's good for your fantasy team over the last two years. Here's a list of guys who have a higher percentage of finishing the week. RB2 or better. Saquon Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Zeke Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, end of list. So it's just a matter of is he playing and that's the gamble you're taking now. He used to be, you know, one of those second round type of picks. Where is he right now in ADP?
Andy Holloway
That's Fournette is at 305. You're drafting him ahead of Freeman, Henry, Carry On Jacobs, Montgomery, Ingram, Lindsey.
Jason Moore
I mean I'm never taking him over Carry On Johnson, but I think you.
Mike Wright
Would take him over Devonta Freeman.
Jason Moore
So I see an injury risk with both of those guys, but I would take the offense of the Falcons.
Andy Holloway
So no, I did move Freeman down a little bit in my rankings recently. I do wonder, you know, we talk kind of like, oh my gosh, they didn't bring anybody else in to compete with Fournettes. Really. Right. They brought in Alfred Blue.
Mike Wright
Well, and they drafted Rykwell Armstead.
Andy Holloway
So. But maybe, maybe some of that has to do with the philosophical change on offense. Maybe it has to do with wanting to throw the ball more, not trusting Fournette to be the offense that got them. Look, they tried to two years ago. It worked. Great defense Fournette pounded out. Maybe it's representative of like we're not going to invest more in the running back position because we're going to. We'll get what we get out of him, but we're going to throw it a little bit more. I, you know, it's hard to say. I don't think his, what's his ceiling I guess would be a nice way to finish that up.
Jason Moore
His ceiling is definitely a top 10 running back. So I mean if he plays 16 games and ends up with one of the largest volumes, he's not a hyper pass volume guy obviously, like a Christian McCaffrey. But his 16 game pace last year he still caught 44 reception. So I mean he's, he's able to.
Mike Wright
What is the judge doing?
Andy Holloway
The judge just dropped a reception perception graphic into our doc for Marquis Lee from 2017. If you want to know what the opposite of a Michael Thomas is, Michael Thomas has green for every route run. The nine route, the post, the corner, the out, the dig, the curl, the comeback, the flat.
Mike Wright
This is success.
Andy Holloway
Green success by route, success by route chart. This is part of the ultimate draft kit. Marquis Lee has read for. He's below average at success by route. For every route run in football, Seal would be happy.
Jason Moore
This is a rose. Is this graphic?
Andy Holloway
Anytime I. Anytime I hear his name, am I even this chart. Am I allowed to blame Blake Bortles? Even though reception perception is supposed to carve the quarterback out, Am I allowed to do that?
Jason Moore
Nope.
Andy Holloway
Because I feel like this is somehow Blake Bortles fault. Still. That's incredible. Anything else you guys want to touch on with the the Jags? Are we good to go?
Mike Wright
I think we're good.
Andy Holloway
Pristine Deal of the day. All right. A Marlon Mack signed NFL football yesterday on pristine auction.com went for $40.
Jason Moore
Nice.
Mike Wright
Not bad.
Andy Holloway
That's great.
Jason Moore
I really like Marlon Mack.
Andy Holloway
I hope he stays healthy. But did you say I really like Kenyan Drake? Is that what you said?
Jason Moore
Nope, nope, nope. I'm fading.
Andy Holloway
Pristine Deal of the Day. Make sure you check out all of their incredible deals. Use the registration code ballers for $5 towards your first sports memorabilia purchase. All autographs are authentic. And that is pristineauction.com we've got the NFC south, the closeout divisional show on Tuesday. On Thursday, I believe we're in mid round madness.
Mike Wright
Yep.
Andy Holloway
Yep. And then we've got a mock draft. Oh yeah. So a lot is happening. Intermixed with all of that content will be tons of news, notes, all the information, all the breaking news. Melvin Gordon, please sign a deal because we took you in. Scottie Fish, that would be great. And look, thanks for supporting the podcast. We appreciate you.
Mike Wright
Absolutely. And Los Angeles, we didn't forget about you. We will see you live next week and five shows a week in August. It's coming everybody. We'll see you next time. Goodbye.
Jason Moore
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot. Com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.
In the July 27, 2019 episode of Fantasy Footballers Podcast titled "AFC South + Gordon Drama, Breaking News," hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright dive deep into the pressing issues affecting fantasy football enthusiasts. The episode primarily focuses on the Melvin Gordon contract saga, provides updates on other NFL holdouts and injuries, and offers a comprehensive analysis of the AFC South division. Below is a structured breakdown of the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.
The hosts kick off the episode with enthusiasm, emphasizing the importance of staying updated with the latest NFL news to gain a competitive edge in fantasy football drafts.
[00:43] Andy Holloway introduces the primary topic: Melvin Gordon's uncertain contract status with the Los Angeles Chargers. Gordon is currently holding out, leading to significant speculation about his future with the team.
[04:10] Mike Wright echoes Holloway's concerns, stating, "I moved him down too," referring to adjusting Gordon’s fantasy rankings due to the ongoing drama.
Andy Holloway explains that Gordon’s rankings have been adjusted downward, placing him between the 17th to 20th tier for running backs. He cautions fantasy owners against spending first or second-round picks on Gordon given the uncertainty.
Andy Holloway [04:34]: "As of right now, he's somewhere in the lower 17. I don't remember where he landed 17 to 20 at running back now because if I drafted today, I don't have enough confidence in spending a first round picking him."
[05:28] Mike Wright compares Gordon’s situation to Le'Veon Bell’s holdout the previous year, highlighting the financial penalties Gordon faces ($30,000 per day) if he continues to skip training camp. This makes Gordon's position more precarious, as he remains under contract and potentially subject to fines.
Mike Wright [04:11]: "Because here is the lay of the land for Melvin Gordon. It is different than Le'Veon Bell last year."
Despite the risks, Jason Moore suggests that Gordon could still be a valuable pick in later rounds if he resolves his contract situation mid-season.
Jason Moore [10:31]: "I would still draft Melvin Gordon."
Andy Holloway advises fantasy owners to prepare for both scenarios: Gordon staying out and requiring investments in alternatives like Austin Ekeler or Justin Jackson.
Andy Holloway [07:50]: "...you might have Melvin Gordon, they want to know do I invest in Echler or Justin Jackson."
The hosts agree that while Gordon presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario, the prudent approach is to monitor ongoing developments and consider him a late-round asset unless his contract is settled favorably early.
[14:58] Andy Holloway notes that Zeke Elliott has not yet joined the Cowboys at training camp, adding another layer of uncertainty for fantasy owners.
[15:09] Jason Moore highlights Michael Thomas’s holdout, indicating that while a deal is imminent, the Chargers' salary cap constraints make it difficult for the team to meet his demands.
Jason Moore [15:15]: "...a lot easier to throw a lot of money at a top level wide receiver than a top level running back."
The hosts predict that Michael Thomas will soon agree to a five-year extension, minimizing his impact on fantasy drafts for the upcoming season.
[15:24] Andy Holloway: "He's just taking a very long Uber drive to camp."
Julian Edelman: Recovering from a broken thumb, expected to miss only a few weeks.
[17:26] Andy Holloway: "Julian Edelman, Sterling Shepherd... he should only miss a few more weeks."
Sterling Shepard: Fractured thumb confirmed, no surgery required, but practice reps missed could hinder performance.
[17:52] Jason Moore: "He should be good to go for week one."
Corey Coleman (Giants): Torn ACL, season-ending injury.
[18:09] Andy Holloway: "No Corey Coleman, no Sterling Shepherd for a while."
Calvin Ridley and Daeshun Hamilton (Titans): Both tweaked hamstrings, increasing their risk ratings for fantasy purposes.
[19:07] Andy Holloway: "Calvin Ridley and Daeshun Hamilton both tweaked their hamstrings."
The hosts emphasize the importance of monitoring these injuries as they can significantly affect player availability and performance, thereby influencing draft strategies and weekly lineup decisions.
Deshaun Watson: Positioned as a potential top fantasy quarterback due to his dual-threat capability. Expectations are high for Watson to lead in fantasy points if he remains healthy and the receiving core performs well.
Andy Holloway [29:13]: "If those three guys stay healthy, Watson is one of the guys that can challenge Mahomes and end up as the number one quarterback."
Receiving Core: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Kiki QT are highlighted as primary targets. The hosts discuss the balance between these receivers and how their performance affects Watson’s fantasy value.
Mike Wright [29:30]: "He's a great player. He runs the ball."
Offensive Line Concerns: Despite having two early-round tackles, the Texans’ offensive line struggles could lead to increased pressure on Watson, potentially affecting his performance.
Andy Holloway [31:30]: "Therefore they... have a quarterback that is comfortable outside the pocket and moving around."
Chris Carson: Confirmed healthy and undervalued in drafts, making him a strong RB2 option.
Andy Holloway [20:23]: "Chris Carson... entering training camp took a 40-yard screen pass and practice one to the house full sprint, healthy."
Marlon Mack: Viewed as a great value at running back with potential for high workload if healthy. The hosts recommend him as an RB2 or RB3 option in later rounds.
Jason Moore [54:00]: "He is a great value in the fourth round."
Deontay Foreman: Discussed as a possible late-round pickup, but concerns remain due to his recovery from an Achilles tear.
Wide Receivers: Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, and Keelan Cole are analyzed for their contributions. Delaney Walker is suggested as a late-round TE option.
Marcus Mariota: Multiple injuries last season affected his performance. Offseason additions like Adam Humphries are expected to bolster the receiving corps.
Tyreek Hill: Continues to be a top-value wide receiver for fantasy players due to his consistent yardage accumulation.
Andy Holloway [47:06]: "Ty Hilton's fantasy value is never hinged upon touchdown, efficiency, effectiveness."
Marlon Mack vs. Derek Henry: The discussion revolves around Mack’s versatility and Henry’s efficiency. Jason Moore prefers Mack over Henry due to Henry's potential burnout risks.
Jason Moore [57:58]: "I think he's a good running back and I think they figured out how to use him."
Nick Foles: Brought in to lead the offense with an emphasis on a high-volume passing strategy under new Offensive Coordinator John D. DeFilippo.
Leonard Fournette: Evaluated as a high fantasy point option if he remains healthy, though his role might be influenced by the increased pass volume.
Jason Moore [65:17]: "He is a good fantasy option over the last two years."
Wide Receivers: Dede Westbrook, Marquis Lee, and Chris Conley are discussed, with recommendations to consider Delaney Walker as a late-round TE option due to the crowded receiving corps.
Andy Holloway [55:27]: "Corey Davis's time has come and gone."
Deshaun Watson: Recommended as a late-round quarterback option due to his potential upside if he leads the Texans’ offense effectively.
Andy Holloway [32:20]: "Deshaun Watson... back in the fifth round."
Marlon Mack: Highlighted as a solid RB2 pick with high upside potential.
Jason Moore [54:00]: "Marlon Mack is a great value."
Tyreek Hill: Strongly recommended as a must-draft wide receiver due to his consistent performance and high yardage accumulation.
Andy Holloway [47:06]: "I don't bank on any... guaranteed, if he's healthy."
Leonard Fournette: Advises re-evaluating Fournette’s role and considering him a valuable late-round RB2/RB3 if he maintains health.
Andy Holloway [65:38]: "If you can get him at a value and you no longer think of him as this anchor for your roster..."
Delaney Walker: Suggested as a late-round tight end option due to limited competition in his position within the Jaguars’ offense.
Jason Moore [55:48]: "He would be entertaining him late in the draft."
The hosts conclude the episode by reiterating the importance of flexibility and staying informed with the latest NFL news to make informed decisions during fantasy drafts. They encourage listeners to keep an eye on breaking news, especially concerning Melvin Gordon’s contract status, and to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Andy Holloway [70:47]: "Melvin Gordon, please sign a deal because we took you in."
The episode wraps up with reminders about upcoming shows and promotions, ensuring listeners remain engaged and prepared for the fantasy football season.
Andy Holloway [04:34]: "As of right now, he's somewhere in the lower 17. I don't remember where he landed 17 to 20 at running back now because if I drafted today, I don't have enough confidence in spending a first round picking him."
Jason Moore [10:31]: "I would still draft Melvin Gordon."
Andy Holloway [29:13]: "If those three guys stay healthy, Watson is one of the guys that can challenge Mahomes and end up as the number one quarterback."
Andy Holloway [47:06]: "Ty Hilton's fantasy value is never hinged upon touchdown, efficiency, effectiveness. He's always been a six, seven touchdown guy."
Jason Moore [54:00]: "He is a great value in the fourth round."
This episode serves as an invaluable resource for fantasy football enthusiasts, offering strategic insights and real-time analysis of player performances, contract negotiations, and injury updates. By focusing on the nuanced implications of these factors, the Fantasy Footballers provide listeners with actionable advice to enhance their fantasy football team-building strategies.