AFC West Breakdown + Henry Gets Paid - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode: AFC West Breakdown + Henry Gets Paid
Release Date: July 16, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers kick off the episode with a lighthearted banter about pre-workout supplements ([00:06] – [02:08]), quickly transitioning into the main topics for the day: a deep dive into the AFC West division and noteworthy fantasy football updates. The hosts aim to provide comprehensive analysis, actionable advice, and insightful opinions to help listeners gain a competitive edge in their fantasy leagues.

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Buy/Sell Segment: David Montgomery as a Top 20 Running Back

Segment Time: [03:46] – [11:08]

Overview: The hosts engage in a robust debate about whether David Montgomery should be considered a top 20 fantasy running back.

• Andy Holloway ([04:54]): Expresses skepticism about Montgomery's ability to break into the top 20, citing stronger alternatives like James Conner and Chris Carson. He critiques the Chicago Bears' offensive improvements, suggesting they aren't substantial enough to elevate Montgomery's fantasy value.

  "I just don't see it getting better to the point where he's a top 20 back." ([07:07])

• Jason Moore ([06:07] & [08:29]): Leans towards buying Montgomery, highlighting his consistent volume and potential for increased opportunities as the season progresses. He acknowledges Montgomery's modest rookie stats but believes his health and workload could push him into higher rankings.

  "Montgomery will have tons of opportunity. I think he'll stay healthy and that'll be enough to get him in the top 20." ([06:31])

• Mike Wright ([06:31] & [10:50]): Currently ranks Montgomery at RB24, emphasizing his reliable volume but remains cautious due to last year's underwhelming performance despite high usage.

  "I have him right now at RB24, but it is a very tough sell because you have players ahead of him." ([06:31])

Consensus: While Andy remains cautious, Jason and Mike see potential in Montgomery’s volume and health to justify a top 20 ranking, albeit with some reservations about his end-zone effectiveness.

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News Segment

Segment Time: [11:45] – [67:59]

Key Updates:

1. Derek Henry Signs Four-Year Deal with the Titans

   • Details: The Titans agree to a four-year, $50 million contract with Derek Henry, including $25.5 million guaranteed ([12:07] – [13:48]).
   • Analysis:
     • Andy Holloway ([13:10]): Sees the deal as mutually beneficial, providing Henry with security while giving Dynasty owners confidence in his continued presence.

       "This gives security. So I love it for Dynasty leagues." ([13:48])

     • Jason Moore ([13:53]): Appreciates the low-risk nature of the deal and its implications for Dynasty leagues.
     • Mike Wright ([13:53] – [15:18]): Supports the deal, emphasizing Henry’s role as a focal point in the offense despite concerns about locking up a running back later in his career.

2. Kenny Stills Arrested

   • Details: Houston Texans wide receiver Kenny Stills faces felony and multiple misdemeanor charges related to a protest, potentially impacting his availability for the season ([15:04] – [16:05]).
   • Analysis:
     • Andy Holloway ([16:07]): Advises caution, especially in redraft leagues, due to uncertainty surrounding Stills' availability.

       "Don't draft Alshon Jeffrey if he ends up not playing the first six weeks." ([17:41])

3. Alshon Jeffery Likely on PUP List

   • Details: Philadelphia Eagles receiver Alshon Jeffery is expected to start the season on the Physical Unable to Perform (PUP) list, missing the first six games ([16:25] – [18:54]).
   • Analysis:
     • Andy Holloway ([17:41] – [18:54]): Highlights the risk of drafting Jeffery in redraft leagues and suggests avoiding him unless certain of his availability post-PUP period.
     • Mike Wright ([21:20] – [21:43]): Recommends stashing Jeffery on the IR rather than an active bench spot.

4. Washington Wide Receiver Kelvin Harmon Out for Season

   • Details: Kelvin Harmon of the Washington Football Team suffers an ACL injury, ending his rookie season ([21:43] – [22:10]).
   • Analysis:
     • Mike Wright ([22:10] – [23:17]): Suggests Stephen Sims and Antonio Gandy-Golden as potential replacements, emphasizing their roles and opportunities within the offense.

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AFC West Divisional Breakdown

Segment Time: [25:06] – [67:59]

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Overview: As two-time Super Bowl champions with a stellar record of 12-4, the Chiefs are portrayed as a fantasy goldmine.

• Performance Metrics:

  • Point Differential: +143, second-best in the league ([26:10] – [26:38]).
  • Offensive Stability: Returning all 11 starters, including Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones.
  • Coaching Continuity: Andy Reid remains at the helm with a consistent coaching staff.

• Key Insights:

  • Jason Moore ([26:31] – [28:49]): Emphasizes the Chiefs' high-scoring offense and Mahomes' role as a top-tier quarterback.
  • Andy Holloway ([28:11] – [28:49]): Highlights the Chiefs’ offensive depth and Mahomes' proven track record, reinforcing the team’s dominance.

Notable Quote:

"And Patrick Mahomes is number two weapon." – Jason Moore ([36:03])

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2. Denver Broncos

Overview: The Broncos are in a rebuilding phase with Drew Lock at quarterback and significant offseason moves aimed at improving their offense.

• Quarterback Concerns:

  • Drew Lock's Performance: Last season finished with a 4-1 record but struggled with accuracy and decision-making ([40:35] – [44:09]).

    "He wasn’t that good. I’m not confident in Drew Lock as, you know, as a top quarterback." – Andy Holloway ([41:33])

• Offensive Upgrades:

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Drafted to bolster the running game, yet faces competition from Damian Williams, raising questions about workload distribution.

    "Eventually, you know, he will be the absolute dominant fantasy option on this team." – Andy Holloway ([33:09])

• Running Backs:

  • Josh Jacobs: Viewed as a breakout candidate with high upside, especially in expanded roles.

    "Josh Jacobs is one of my favorite second-round picks." – Andy Holloway ([53:34])

• Coaching Adjustments:

  • Pat Shurmur as Offensive Coordinator: Expected to positively influence the Broncos' offensive strategy.

Key Insights:

• Mike Wright ([34:15] – [46:38]): Balances concerns about Lock’s uncertainty with optimism about Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s potential.
• Jason Moore ([46:38] – [47:46]): Advocates for Josh Jacobs’ breakout potential despite Drew Lock’s shaky start.

Notable Quote:

"Josh Jacobs to me is one of my favorite second-round picks." – Andy Holloway ([53:34])

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3. Las Vegas Raiders

Overview: The Raiders are navigating a quarterback transition from Derek Carr to Derek Henry, with offensive weapons both gained and lost.

• Quarterback Situation:

  • Derek Carr: Experienced a career-best season but faces scrutiny over his future with the team.

    "If Derek Carr and the Raiders are struggling, there will be clamoring for their $15 million backup quarterback." – Andy Holloway ([54:16])

• Offensive Weapons:

  • Darren Waller: Central to the Raiders’ offense, but projected to experience touchdown regression.

    "Darren Waller is the one who opens it up for the Henry Ruggs draft pick." – Mike Wright ([50:34])

  • Henry Ruggs III: Highly touted rookie wide receiver with significant speed, projected to provide fantasy value despite potential usage concerns.

    "If you want to look at Tyreek Hill and go, the guy is just so fast like you guys, you have to say that about Henry Ruggs." – Mike Wright ([50:41])

• Running Backs:

  • Josh Jacobs: Positioned as a key fantasy asset with high potential running back stats.

    "Josh Jacobs is not a hard sell, is there?" – Jason Moore ([53:07])

Key Insights:

• Andy Holloway ([47:46] – [55:00]): Highlights Darren Waller's pivotal role and expresses mixed feelings about the quarterback transition.
• Jason Moore ([55:00] – [62:00]): Focuses on Josh Jacobs’ breakout potential as a primary fantasy running back.

Notable Quote:

"Darren Waller is the key cog of the offense that will make things go." – Mike Wright ([50:34])

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4. Los Angeles Chargers

Overview: The Chargers are in a state of flux with the departure of Philip Rivers and the introduction of quarterback Justin Herbert, alongside significant changes to their offensive roster.

• Quarterback Transition:

  • Justin Herbert: High draft pick stepping into rivers’ shoes, with questions surrounding his immediate impact and chemistry with receivers.

    "It's a million question marks because much like Denver, where the office is going to go as far as Drew Lock can take them." – Jason Moore ([46:35])

• Offensive Weapons:

  • Keenan Allen: Despite being an elite receiver, his value is tied to the success and passing volume of Herbert.

    "You have to make a bet. And there are times when players like DeAndre Hopkins have waited through multiple crappy quarterbacks and been fine." – Jason Moore ([65:52])

  • Austin Ekeler: Versatile running back with significant receiving capabilities, though his value depends on Herbert's passing strategy.

    "I have him at the RB17, which means I think he's going to be a very valuable, useful fantasy player." – Andy Holloway ([62:56])

• Wide Receivers:

  • Mike Williams: Seen as undervalued with high upside due to his ability to accumulate yardage on fewer receptions.

    "Mike Williams might be undervalued." – Mike Wright ([65:52])

Key Insights:

• Andy Holloway ([57:02] – [66:36]): Discusses the uncertainties surrounding Austin Ekeler’s role and Keenan Allen’s value contingent on Herbert’s performance.
• Mike Wright ([60:00] – [66:36]): Advocates for the potential of Mike Williams despite concerns about passing volume.

Notable Quote:

"Keenan Allen is a true number one wide receiver. If you look at the reception perception metrics he puts up in every single year. He is an elite route runner." – Mike Wright ([63:57])

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Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers provide a thorough analysis of the AFC West, highlighting the Kansas City Chiefs' dominance, the Denver Broncos' rebuilding efforts with promising running backs like Josh Jacobs, the Las Vegas Raiders' quarterback transition and reliance on Darren Waller, and the Los Angeles Chargers' uncertainties with their new quarterback and wide receivers. Additionally, key fantasy football updates, including Derek Henry’s contract and player injuries, are dissected to offer strategic advice for listeners. The episode combines expert opinions, statistical insights, and actionable recommendations to equip fantasy managers for the upcoming season.

Notable Closing Quote:

"Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast." – Andy Holloway ([67:59])

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Key Takeaways:

• Chiefs remain the premier fantasy team with Mahomes at the helm.
• Broncos offer high upside with Josh Jacobs but come with quarterback uncertainties.
• Raiders present opportunities through Henry Ruggs and Josh Jacobs but hinge on Derek Carr’s performance.
• Chargers have potential with Justin Herbert and versatile players like Austin Ekeler but require careful monitoring of quarterback dynamics.

Listeners are encouraged to join the Fantasy Football community at JoinTheFoot.com for additional resources and to engage with other fantasy football enthusiasts.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Greet Scott.

[Jason Moore]

If my calculations are correct, you are listening to this before your fantasy football.

[Andy Holloway]

Drafts have taken place. I have been to the future and.

[Jason Moore]

Those that follow the advice from the Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit had a spectacular season and with certain victories, it's almost as if Biff had given each of them a copy of Gray's False Almanac. I'd highly recommend heading over to www.ultimateraftkit.com without any further delay.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike wr.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in.

[Andy Holloway]

That was long.

[Mike Wright]

Someone had their Pre workout.

[Jason Moore]

Thursday, July 16, 2020 Micah I only messed around with that pre workout stuff about one time in my life because there are ingredients inside of there that were in the the time machine from Back to the Future. There was some plutonium inside of that I didn't feel myself for weeks.

[Mike Wright]

Your skin starts.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, it starts tingling hot and itchy.

[Mike Wright]

Look, you feel like you could run a very, very long distance.

[Jason Moore]

If you feel like if you don't run that distance you'll probably explode. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean it's not the best when you look at ingredients, it contains crystal.

[Jason Moore]

And you're like, oh, thanks Walter. Yeah, the periodic tables all jumbled inside of that thing.

[Mike Wright]

Do not take if you have an aversion to science.

[Jason Moore]

Science. Welcome in the Fantasy footballers podcast. Thursday, July 16 Some news to talk about on the show today. We're back in the divisional breakdowns as well the AFC west which is a division with Patrick Mahomes and other quarterbacks.

[Andy Holloway]

Right, well said.

[Jason Moore]

That we will talk about and I'm excited. It's going to be a good show. YouTube.com the fantasy footballers if you want to watch the show, you can subscribe. Click the bell. We appreciate it. Be one of those first 200,000 as we said.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, get in, get in while you still the windows closing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we're going to cap it. Did you not know that? We're going to put a cap, a hard cap.

[Mike Wright]

The first ever YouTube actually really, really.

[Andy Holloway]

Disappointed to know we haven't hit it yet because we've announced this once before and usually when we announce anything is just done the next day.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, good point, Jay. Twitter@the ff ballers jointhefoot.com is our fantasy football community. You can get into local and online leagues. That's a part of the jointhefoot.com package over there where you get access to the extra episode, the fantasy community, the forums, bunch of really cool stats and proprietary stuff in the season and there's just over 7,500 of you over [e-mail] supporting the show. We appreciate it. All right, before we get into some big time news, we're going to do a little buy Sell.

[Andy Holloway]

Buy or sell presented by Pristine Auction.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Al Borland sent me a little note here reminding me of the pre workout that I had taken one time. That was the whatever the jacked brand is jacked. But it's like so intense that they have to use the number three as one of the letters instead of.

[Mike Wright]

That's how you know it's elite. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

It's incredible. I think it's banned in like 35.

[Jason Moore]

States and most countries. Yeah. All right. Buy or sell. David Montgomery will be a top 20 fantasy running back. Buy or sell. His best ball average draft position right now is the running back 23 off the board. Often mentioned in that group of, you know, Love Bell, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, some of that kind of crew and where you have to make that decision in your draft. Who do you feel most comfortable with as your a running back to potentially. But what do you think about David Montgomery as a top 20 fantasy running back?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't like it. It's one of those things where I so I went and I looked at my rankings once again. I think Brooks putting together these show docs is just scouring my. He is currently my running back. 20 on the dot. Oh, but I'm going to sell this and say he's not going to get in because a couple of the running backs behind him, James Conner, Chris Carson, you know, I don't know who will stay healthy necessarily. But like, those are better backs. Those are backs. I would rather put my stock in for fantasy than David Montgomery. And I think that the improvements that Chicago has made this year aren't good enough. Aren't big enough. I mean, you know, I talked about Nick Foles being one of the more overhyped offseason acquisitions recently that I don't think really moves the needle. And I remember how desperately this team needed a tight end, not just for the passing game but for the running game. They were, they were rumored for Austin Hooper, they were rumored for Hunter Henry. You know, they were trying to get a big name guy and they went out and spent a bunch of, bunch of money on Jimmy Graham who can't block. So I just don't see this. I don't see it getting better to the point where he's a top 20 back. It's in his range of outcomes, but I don't want to bet on it.

[Jason Moore]

I'll I'll buy it. Just barely. RB18 in my rankings last year he had 10, 74 yards from scrimmage, 7 touchdowns in his rookie year, only averaged 4 yards per touch. Much like their entire offense. It wasn't very pretty. But Montgomery will have tons of opportunity. I think he'll stay healthy and that'll be enough to get him in the top 20.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's. It's opportunity. I have him right now at RB24, but it, it's, it is a very tough sell because you have players ahead of him, you know, like Clyde Edwards, a lair. I have him projected for more points than Montgomery. Montgomery's volume is far more assured than Edwards, Allaire and like Mark Ingram, Devin Singletary, guys, I have like just ahead. But the, the safety of Montgomery's volume. Now, last year he had that volume and he still was not very good.

[Jason Moore]

He was, meh, meh.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

David mcgomery.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he was not great for your fantasy team. I'm going to sell him getting into the top 20. But he is. His volume is safe and he will be decent floor, I guess.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, that's what I agree. I mean, you know, when I say that I'm selling him not being a top 20 back and speaking a little bit disparagingly on the Chicago Bears situation, that's not to say I won't have David Montgomery on my fantasy teams. He serves a purpose. We, you know, last episode we went through the jets and we were talking about Jameson Crowder, how he has a floor and it's pretty much the same as his ceiling. It's just exactly what's going to happen for James. He's going to get a lot of targets. They're all going to be short. He's going to be okay, you know, have five or six touchdowns. I feel like David Montgomery, to me, his, his volume is so safe that I'm willing to take him when he's plugging in that third running back spot. That's, that's what you need, someone with volume. But I don't see him capitalizing with the, you know, some of these players you hope that you get upside. Maybe he falls into the end zone nine or 10 times. I just don't. I don't believe it's going to happen.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, and that's fair. I mean, last year he did finish as the RB25. Really? Remember, coming into week one, we thought maybe he'd be the starter from day one. It pretty much was.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike Davis was week one.

[Jason Moore]

I know, but. But the thing with Montgomery is I do think that there's more ceiling there than meets the eye. We were excited for the Bears running game for a reason and what Nagy had been able to do in years past, obviously not a good season, but I think the truth in that offense is better than what it was last year. And Montgomery in particular has passing game chops. He's a very capable pass catcher. He had several impressive plays down the field, you know, seam routes, things like that. So that. That offers me a little bit more of an upside, but am I going to bank on it? Meh.

[Mike Wright]

No thing about Matt Nagy, like, we were all very excited. You know, he's a. He's from the coaching tree of Andy Reid and we've seen great success for. From offensive people coming from that tree. And I think we've ended up with like a. Like, we thought we were buying a legendary performer and we got like a budget magician who's up there. And. Thanks. Like, he thinks his tricks are so awesome, you know, and like, oh, you've never seen this one before. And then, then the cards fall out of the pocket. You see the rabbit just jumping behind him again, because this is what he does. But. But then he thinks it's really impressive and keeps going with these like. No, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. Let me do that trick over.

[Jason Moore]

Did you.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you see that?

[Mike Wright]

You see that trick?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And then you just go, yeah, it's magnets. Show me under your wrist. And then you're like, oh, no, no.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no, no. But have you seen this trick?

[Jason Moore]

And then he just gets the right kicker and they make this. They go to the Super Bowl.

[Andy Holloway]

David Montgomery's range of outcomes is running back 18 to running back 24. That's.

[Jason Moore]

No, I don't think so. I don't think so.

[Mike Wright]

What do you think is. What's his upside, Andy?

[Jason Moore]

He's back in one. Like a 10 to 12. Okay, 10 to 12. 15 plus touches in 12 of 16 weeks as a rookie and nobody's. If you give him 15 plus touches with pass catching chops and he stays healthy, I think he could make a jump.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's just the touchdowns. It's whether or not the offense takes enough of a step forward in order to have him fall into the end zone more. I have him with seven rushing touchdowns, two receiving touchdowns. So that's. That's a, That's a good amount. Over a thousand yards, but puts him right now.

[Jason Moore]

He's not going to do it. He's not going to do it with 17 and a half points scored per game as a team. That's not. Montgomery is going to be exactly what Jason said which is you'll be happy when he falls into the end zone. You'll be unhappy the weeks he doesn't. And then I mean like last year. But the draft price at least is lower.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. And that's the whole difference is that last year there was hype. People tried to. When you got him in your league it was because you went a little earlier on him because you thought the upside was there and he disappointed on that. If he finishes exactly where he did last year and you got him at his price this year, it's like okay, I know what I'm getting now Brooke.

[Jason Moore]

Brooks when we'll move on. But I want to know where Montgomery went last year. I can't remember where that is relative to like Clyde's allaire this year. I looked back and it was really consistently a third round pick third round early. And where's Clyde in the second right now? Yeah. Or is he third round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Clyde's climbing into the second.

[Jason Moore]

There was a lot of excitement around Montgomery last year. So you are definitely feeling those burns that was buy or sell from pristineauction.com use the registration code ballers to get a $10 credit. Let's talk some news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

See how Brooks already knew the answer to the question beforehand. That's impressive.

[Mike Wright]

It was.

[Jason Moore]

I tried the judge coming through. All right. The deadline has passed for teams to sign franchise tagged players to long term deals. But.

[Mike Wright]

And someone got one.

[Jason Moore]

But somebody got one.

[Mike Wright]

Dak.

[Jason Moore]

No, not Dak.

[Andy Holloway]

Of course, of course.

[Mike Wright]

Now we don't need him. Andy Dalton's on the team.

[Jason Moore]

Derek Henry.

[Mike Wright]

Good for you man.

[Jason Moore]

And the Titans reached an agreement on a four year deal. According to Jay Glazer. Four years, $50 million, 25 and a half guaranteed. We were just getting this news before we pressed record so we're all processing it. Our initial reaction was okay, like Derek got paid but he didn't break the bank. He didn't outpace Zeke. Zeke's deal's much larger than this one. Similar guaranteed money. But the What? Zeke Steel's $90 million deal. This is a $50 million contract. We were also discussing Derek Henry's such the focal point of this offense. Even more so than maybe Zeke is in Dallas. So the Titans needed to lock up Derek Henry.

[Mike Wright]

I don't.

[Jason Moore]

I don't mind this deal.

[Andy Holloway]

The deal makes sense for both sides whether whether or not you want to sign a four Year deal on a running back that's going to put him into his age 30 season. That's where I worry about it. However, he did come into the league having a couple of years behind DeMarco Murray where he wasn't really getting the workload. So maybe you say, you know, less wear and tear and also big boy, big boy, crazy mammoth of a man who probably can, you know, go strong into his later years. But that would be the only downside is, you know, locking up a running back for four years this late into his career. But he's awesome. And for Dynasty, you know, I'm a.

[Jason Moore]

I'd say there are three sides in the deal. There's the Titans, there's Derek Henry, and then there's Dynasty owners.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And Dynasty owners have to be thrilled because you don't want a guy who, you know, if Derrick Henry has a mediocre season this year and then hits free agency and next year's free agent class for running Max is out pretty wild. Yeah, it's, it's, it's incredible. Which means not everybody out there is going to get the deal you think they are. This gives security. So I love it for Dynasty leagues.

[Jason Moore]

But Dak did not reach an agreement. So I had read some rumors that he passed on 100 million in guaranteed money. Yeah, that was a rumor. That's tough to do. I don't have the. I would have to take a lot of pre workout to do that.

[Mike Wright]

Dak talked about he's bet on himself his entire life is the quote where he was talking about it. He's going to make a lot of money this year and if he, like, if he is a good quarterback this year, which he's going to be because I think that Dak is good, that the, the bag will get bigger than it would have been had you signed him already.

[Jason Moore]

It does feel very low risk compared to, you know, Derek Henry goes into this year without a deal. Feels a lot different.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you can't, you can't.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Let's say both of those guys get injured this year, missed the whole season, they don't even get to play one week. Come the following season, nobody's signing Derek Henry and everybody's opening up their purse for, oh, maybe I can get Dak now.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, without question. So, all right, Congrats, Derek, on the new deal. And Dynasty owners of Derek Henry know that he's going to be part of a really good system. Good head coach, good offense. It's good, good news for fantasy owners. All right, Texas wide receiver, Texans Wide receiver Kenny Stills was arrested during a protest. He was charged with a felony. He was also charged with multiple misdemeanors. And the Texans organization have come out and said they're aware of it. They're gathering more information. Obviously, any arrest has implications on availability for the season. Kenny Stills has not been a hot topic in terms of, like, output. You're looking at Brandon Cooks, you're looking at Will Fuller before Kenny Stills in that offense, but he might not be available for some time if there's a suspension involved.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's, it's hard. I don't know the legal process. I mean, it's. This was for protesting, so we'll see if the charges hold up or not. But you are right that generally when you're facing a felony, there is a, there's usually an NFL suspension behind it.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Jason was bringing this up this morning. Philly voices Jimmy Kimski notes. Alshon Jeffrey is, quote, almost certain to start on the PUP this year in Philadelphia. That fits with the never being drafted in any Scotty Fish league.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I think that's the expectation all around Philadelphia. This was not an article about his health. It was just an article about whether or not he's, he's worth it if his value and what they, you know, making an argument that they should have cut him last year, but there's no timetable right now for his return. And all the local people in Philly pretty much have an expectation that I've seen for him to land on the pup. So that would be the first six games missed. So you need to, you know, adjust your expectations accordingly because in later in drafts and we took him in Scotty Fish because he went crazy late in drafts. But there's this period where you're, you're in the mid to late rounds and his name sounds enticing because he's Alshon, because, you know, he's been the number one guy. He's been the touchdown machine with wins and you want him and don't, don't do it. Don't. If you're in any kind of redraft league, don't. There's no chance that you should draft Alshon Jeffrey if he ends up not playing the first six weeks.

[Mike Wright]

Speaking of betting on yourself like that, Alshon Jeffrey, I don't know if you guys remember.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the one year deal, right.

[Mike Wright]

He bet on himself going to Philadelphia.

[Jason Moore]

It worked out and then they won a Super Bowl.

[Mike Wright]

Did work. The reason you can't cut him, Jason, is like, if people wanted to last Year, it would have been 20 and a half million dollars of dead cap. This year would be 26 million dollars in dead cap to move on from. I know you can start these things out.

[Andy Holloway]

They could have. They could have cut them before that, but then they restructured to where now?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, is that what happened? Okay. Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

So it's pretty. Pretty crazy. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

He would be somebody that we'll talk about when he returns because of his history with Carson Wentz last year, even though he was beat up. I mean, he had a number 8 overall finish on in week 6, a number 2 overall finish in week 13, a couple other top 24 finishes. Carson loves throwing him the football, but he's not. Jason's right. You can't just throw him on the bottom of your bench. He's not enough of a guarantee to hold him for six weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you know how old Alshon Jeffrey is?

[Mike Wright]

I do.

[Andy Holloway]

I think It'll surprise you.

[Jason Moore]

30.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you think, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

30.

[Andy Holloway]

He is actually 48.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

So I think that's another red flag.

[Jason Moore]

I didn't know that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah. Just letting all the book land know. No, he's. I mean, look, I hope I'm that way when I'm 48. No, he is 30, but it feels. Feels like it.

[Mike Wright]

What's. It's an old 30 is. We just. We deal with his injuries, but like Andy was pointing out, when he's playing and he's actually healthy, I think he still has enough juice left to be good for his team and good for fantasy football. But we're at this point of. Can you ever count on that as a team?

[Jason Moore]

Well, and the truth is, is if he starts on the pup. Let's have that discussion briefly. I mean, they brought in Marquis, Goodwin. Desean Jackson will be there. They have Jalen Rager, they have two tight ends, and they got Miles Sanders.

[Andy Holloway]

And I think a Whiteside who was, you know, disappointing rookie last year, but coming back.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but to speak to your point, Mike, there were games last year. Alshon had nine receptions for 137 yards, 10 receptions for 76 yards. He loves scoring. But at the beginning, you know, six weeks of no Alshon not worth threat. Somebody will be. Somebody else will be a good fantasy wide receiver for that team. Who is it?

[Andy Holloway]

Boston Scott?

[Jason Moore]

I mean, it's probably desean Jackson.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what's funny is all the talk on whether it's Jalen rager, whether it's DeSean Jackson, and the truth is we actually do know the answer. It's not one of those, like I'm not sure the answer is Zach Ertz. Zach Ertz. Every time that other players have gone down, Zach Ertz, we talk about this every year. It's like, oh, like, yeah, Ertz was great, but it took a bunch of injuries around him and that's why he had the opportunity. If you look at when everybody was healthy, he wasn't really that involved. But every single year he gets the opportunity and we know it's going to go to him. So Zach Ertz, to me, if Alshon is on the PUP needs a bump up in your mind because right now he's, you know, he's not even in the conversation with Mark Andrews. To a lot of people it's like it's Travis Kelsey, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and they don't really care about Ertz. I think that could be a mistake with, with Alshon's health.

[Jason Moore]

You believe that about Goddard then?

[Andy Holloway]

Not, not as much because of the.

[Jason Moore]

Goal line opportunities being there. Jeffrey, such a, you know, he averages half a touchdown a game or whatever it is.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Goddard certainly goes up with the touchdowns, but I can't rely on touchdowns when you don't get the passing volume. Ertz gets the passing volume.

[Jason Moore]

Mike, what are you going to say?

[Mike Wright]

Just that. Alshon, Jeffrey, this is, this is just fantasy football strategy. If you have multiple irs, and depending on what, what platform you're playing on, Alshon Jeffrey may be eligible to go into that ir. So I'm willing to take him with like my last pick, my second to last pick and stash them on the ir. I just won't be stashing him on an active bench.

[Jason Moore]

All right, and one more bit of news. Washington wide receiver Kelvin Harmon was a rookie last year. Six round pick, Torres, ACL. He's missed. He's going to miss the entire 2020 season. Stephen Sims, who I think is a very talented, undervalued, fantasy wild card type of player, potentially more opportunity in the offense. Trey Quinn's still there, but you also have they brought in Antonio Gandy golden, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, yeah, Gandy Golden. Look, he's big, he's strong, he's athletic for his size. And if you go watch tape of him, he played at a very, very small school. But to me he would be the, the most obvious replacement for Kelvin Harmon. Like, I like Stephen Sims too. He's an interesting player, but he's a slot wide receiver. And Trey Quinn is still there. And if you look at Stephen Sims, what he did, you have 29 of his targets came in those final three weeks when Trequin was, was no longer playing. So I think Gandy golden would.

[Jason Moore]

Opportunity.

[Mike Wright]

Would have the opportunity on the outside. And he's interesting. Not from a, like a, from a redraft purpose, but I liked him. I liked the prospect for dynasty purposes. It's tough to, you know, put fantasy stock on a team that I don't really see multiple wide receivers sustaining value behind Terry McLaurin. But he's at least an interesting player and a name you should know.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. All right, well, we can get into the divisional breakdown. Before we do that, I want to thank today's sponsor. You know them. Hello Fresh. You can get fresh pre measured ingredients and mouth watering seasonal recipes delivered right to your door with HelloFresh, America's number one meal kit. So many different recipes to choose from every single week. You can break out of the recipe rut. Jason, you want out of the rut?

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

Oh, my goodness, that's.

[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

Let's get divisional.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we're getting one more thing before I forget to mention this, a part of my love for Antonio Gandhi, Goldie, is if he, look, if he succeeds, you're gonna have some Gandhi, have.

[Andy Holloway]

Some Gandhi, which is of course the most important thing. And honestly, I was very upset that we actually spoke about Gandy Golden. And you did do it.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Say it.

[Mike Wright]

I had to correct it. Jason. I'm here. I paid for the. Paid for the crimes. And we got it out there.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Yes. AFC west divisional breakdown, starting with the Kansas City chief, Super bowl champions, 12 and 4 for two consecutive seasons. Fantasy gold mine of a. Of a team, very impressive. Top to bottom. Obviously, you know, my job. Our job on this show for divisional breakdowns is not to tell you how good the Chiefs are.

[Andy Holloway]

That's an easy job.

[Jason Moore]

That's very simple. You just look at every metric everywhere.

[Mike Wright]

Dude, that point differential. Their point differential is.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, what was it?

[Mike Wright]

143? Second place? Second and third, I should say. The Broncos and Raiders, they finished the season tie, but the Broncos had a negative 34 point differential and the Raiders were negative 106.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they had to play the Chiefs twice. I mean, it's not fair to be in that division.

[Mike Wright]

They score so many points.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think I read that their average points in losses was 36 and a half. So when they lose, they still scored 36 and a half. Also, you also don't want to try to beat them because when opposing teams led by 10 points on the Chiefs. During the year, the Chiefs were undefeated, they were 5 and 0. And then we saw that all through the playoffs. Right. Because they were down 24 to Houston.

[Andy Holloway]

They were nothing. Right. Wasn't it?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

They were down points to Tennessee. They were down 10 points to the 49ers. It's almost. And think about what that does psychologically to the opposing team. Your objective is to beat them. If you get a lead, you become more scared and you play differently. And they're also. I mean, this is like if you could design a circumstance for a great team inside of a video game, the Chiefs are that. Because. And I even mean going into 2020, they're returning all 11 starters. They're returning, I believe, 10 of 11 on defense. They filled one of their holes by drafting Clyde Edwards Allaire in the draft. They paid their best player on offense and defense, Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones. And they have complete continuity in coaching staff. All players. On a season in which there might not be much of a training camp and opportunity for any of these new offensive coordinators and head coaches to do anything in terms of building any type of, you know, just coordinated playing with these teams. Are they going undefeated? This is what I'm asking you.

[Mike Wright]

Is Andy Reid the one who's like, yeah, we don't need no preseason. We don't need to do that. Don't worry, don't worry about straight guys. We don't need training camp either. Let's just start the season.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, so you start with the fantasy discussion. Not around whether Patrick Mahomes is good. Yeah, he's good. He should be your quarterback. Sure. It's kind of the discussion on Clyde Edwards allaire to me because we, we talked about, you know, the excitement for Montgomery last year who was coming into a great running offense. And make no mistake, I mean if you are an Andy Reid running back, 16 years as a head coach, his top running back has been a top 10 scorer 12 times in 16 years.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I went and I looked Damian Williams, who is, look, he was a fantasy bust last year because of injury. Like every game that Damian Williams played in, over 60% of the snaps, he was a top 16 running back at worst.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And that's.

[Mike Wright]

He produces when he's on the field.

[Jason Moore]

So does that speak to a willingness to just spend up on Clyde Edwards a lair that some are doing and just. Sure, it might be, it might be a tough three, four or five weeks. You know, you've got all the rhetoric about Damian Williams ready to compete, but you don't invest that, that kind of draft capital on a guy that you're not going to make your running back. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Eventually you're right. Eventually, you know, he will be the absolute dominant fantasy option on this team. It's just a matter of when and what it costs you. The win, I believe, won't be for the first four or five weeks of the season, especially with this shortened preseason coming in. You know, the running back coach talking up Damian Williams, you know, this won't be, you know, Kareem Hunt came in and was great, got the whole workload as a rookie, but that was because he wasn't supposed to. The presumed starter got injured. If that happens, goodness, I mean, by the way, now he's going to be in the first round.

[Jason Moore]

I'm starting to change. You're rising, you're starting to soften on my thought that Damian will have much of that backfield for very long.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you're. So you're shifting over to Edwards a layer.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just, I'm shifting towards the thought that Jason, you know, what you're saying is true, but that timeline, I'm shrinking it in my head. I'm thinking maybe one or two weeks for there to be more of a shared backfield. And then Clyde, you know, great players separate themselves. Damian Williams has been able to, you know, third down wheel routes. He's Not a traditional. You know, we saw this in the playoffs. We were looking at Damian Williams in the backfield versus Derek Henry and you said, oh, this is just. They don't play the same position, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they're very different. But when you're speaking to the cost, like if it's, if it's one to two weeks, Andy, like you are starting to project, then Clyde Edwards allaire to me 100% worth the draft pick. What's wild is if you start thinking about it, if it takes five to six weeks, but you're confident in about five to six games, Edwards Allaire will be the primary running back. I still think that he's probably worth that draft pick. I mean, you have to figure out your team in the meanwhile how to get off to a hot start, how to survive without your second round pick. Doing really anything for you at the beginning of the season. But like I said, for Damian, when there's a running back on the field a lot for Kansas City, there are top 10 running back.

[Jason Moore]

So I've got a perfect question for you to put this on the table because what you're saying is the ceiling so high for Clyde when he's the guy that the cost is worth it. So pretend right now Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliott, suspended six games. Where do they go in your fantasy draft with the output that they would bring you?

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

If Christian McCaffrey wasn't hurt?

[Mike Wright]

Well, then we, I mean, and you.

[Jason Moore]

Get him in week seven. You saw that with Z, didn't Zeke.

[Mike Wright]

Had a couple years ago he started.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but it wasn't in the.

[Mike Wright]

Oh no, he actually was in the.

[Andy Holloway]

Middle of the season.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, okay.

[Andy Holloway]

It was in the middle of season when the suspension came down. So you weren't sure. But we did have the conversations that mirror this. Where would they go? And I think that that depends on, you know, who else is on the board in different years to say they'd go at the back of the first or the beginning of the second. To me, you know, I still do think Damian Williams is involved. I don't like getting off to a slow start, but I will grant you that Clyde Edwards Allaire will be a great second half of the year player. But I want to get off to a hot start in all my redraft and keeper leagues. So at if it was a third round pick, then I'd be fine going running back, running back, running back and knowing that I've got two guys ahead of Clyde Edwards Allaire, if he's in the third round, I'm fine. But the second that means that I have one other starting running back and then I'm plugging a hole with a Sony Michelle later or you know, Jordan Howard. I don't want to do that.

[Mike Wright]

Well, what about still doing that? Going running back, running back, running back. But instead. But you're grabbing Edwards Allaire in the second round and then in the third round then you're drafting Levy on Bell, Chris Carson, Connor.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

You don't have to go down to David Montgomery. Just in things that could happen inside of your draft. Are you okay starting that with the potential that on the second half of the season you have a top 10, possibly even better fantasy running back through that time span?

[Andy Holloway]

I think if I, if just personally if I were to grab Edwards Allaire, I'll end up with three running backs in the first three rounds.

[Jason Moore]

The interesting thing though about the discussion is Clyde Edwards Alaire is not suspended. So there is a percentage chance that the timeline is faster and there is a percentage chance he's a valuable player because this offense is the best in football. They lose with 36 points. There's a chance that he's startable, he's flexible before he's even the guy. Sure. So that's why I've changed my thought process a little bit.

[Andy Holloway]

Where do you guys have him? I have him on the season at running back 15. So I still have him finishing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you've got him higher than I do right now, but I'm warming to.

[Mike Wright]

He's a 15 for me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Okay. He's at 18 right now on my board, which is Chris Carson, Lev Bell, David Johnson range because of what we've talked about in the past. But I'm just starting to see a pathway where. Because that, that is such a high ceiling.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

And if you can maneuver your way through three, four, five weeks of the season without him as your number one player, if he becomes that he's a top 10 running back.

[Andy Holloway]

The thing is, I want to make the argument against Edwards Allaire on talent. I wasn't a huge fan of him and talk about, well, we haven't seen him. There is a chance that he doesn't succeed as well, but I just, I don't actually believe that with Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid like the schematically he's going to get the ball open and whoever the running back is, I don't care. Damian Williams, I've said forever is not a good running back, but he's great at fantasy. If he's got the ball in that system. So anybody will be.

[Jason Moore]

Meaning that.

[Mike Wright]

Why you got to do my man dirty like that? Should have been the Super Bowl MVP.

[Jason Moore]

At the wide receiving position. Tyreek Hill, McColl Hardman, Sammy Watkins. Being pointed out to me that Sammy is still just 27 years old, same age as Devonte Parker's breakout season. That don't. That does not matter to me. If you heard Sammy Watkins talk about this season, he basically comes out and says he's not going to be that productive. He basically said, you know, I'd rather be a guy that that's under 1,000 yards on a Super bowl team than go somewhere and try to shoot for 1,000 yards. So his expectations have been qualmed by, I don't know, his career maybe, but.

[Mike Wright]

He did average 96 yards a game in the playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

The toughest of the competition. He was almost 100 a game.

[Jason Moore]

I think my Sony Michelle playoff argument that went into last year has cooled me on playoff arguments a little bit. But no, I mean, Sammy is still. He's being drafted as a wide receiver 58. I mean, is that appropriate? That doesn't feel appropriate to me. For Patrick Mahomes is number two weapon.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, no, I would. I'm fine drafting him.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, this is a wide receiver 54. This is not. No wide receiver. 58.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. It's wild.

[Mike Wright]

I think that he is. His the cost of drafting him is just. That's too low for what he could become. Tyreek Hill is also a very difficult evaluation for me because you had the first five weeks so he got injured right away. But then right when he comes back for five games, he's the wide receiver two in points per game over that stretch. Hurts his hamstring in week 11 and then his average finish becomes wide receiver 35. And I've kind of made the argument about you can see a correlation between the defense getting better and Tyree Kills production going down. But. But then you also have to factor it was a hamstring injury and a hamstring injury for Tyree Kill is going to be pretty devastating for him. Jay, where. How are you on. On Tyree Kill right now?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the defense argument of the Kansas City Chiefs having a much better defense the second half of the year, requiring them to score less. It holds a little. A little bit of water. But you know, to me personally, I don't have a qualm at all about taking Tyree Kill in that top group. You know, when I, when I look at the best wide receivers out There, you know, Michael Thomas is in that first tier. And then it's pretty much Tyree kill Devonte Adams and Julio. To me, like, I don't. I'll put them in a blender. I'll.

[Jason Moore]

I'll take one out or, you know, that sounds painful.

[Mike Wright]

If they're in a blender, you're not getting one out.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I'm getting into the blender. Yeah. This is how I get my veggies.

[Jason Moore]

Jason blends things together and then takes one object out somehow.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right. Yeah. But I'm just saying, like, I don't have fears that Tyreek, because here's the truth. The truth is he is one of the fastest, if not the most practically fast player in the NFL. With the best quarterback. Yeah, one of the best. I mean, he's proven it his entire career. He's. He's been great. So I'm not, I'm not reading into his hamstring induced poor performance last, last half of last year.

[Jason Moore]

Dynasty. Question on Travis Kelsey is that he's the tight end. 1. How many more seasons do you think he has at that range?

[Mike Wright]

At least. At least two for me. Probably three. Which means that he still would be my number one tight end last year.

[Jason Moore]

97 for 12, 29 and 5. So there's touchdown upside still with Travis.

[Andy Holloway]

Kelsey, it was 10.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. All right, let's talk about the Denver Broncos. Moving on. If I've learned anything over the last three months, Broncos fans are real and they are. They are intense. They believe they're just a passionate people. They believe in an undefeated season on the way. Drew Locke's the future.

[Mike Wright]

Wasn't your lock like 4 and 1?

[Andy Holloway]

He was true.

[Jason Moore]

He was 4 and 1. The Denver Broncos were 7 and 9 last year. It was a bad offense. 32nd in football. That's bad in passing touchdowns. They did not have a lot of weapons. Which is probably one of the kind of arguments for why Drew Locke can have more success on the field. Yes, they were four and one. Yes. Over his five starts, he posted six and a half yards per pass attempt and just an 89 rating. Drew Locke was not good for fantasy for himself or his. For the Cortland Suttons of the world.

[Mike Wright]

I believe there was one good game in there.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. One out of five is bad for fantasy. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

QB, here's his finishes. QB 22, QB 8, QB 31, QB 20, QB 21 and Submarine Cortland Sutton.

[Mike Wright]

Over that time span though, like three of those five matchups were top eight matchups for fantasy quarterbacks. So him not coming through in the majority of.

[Jason Moore]

You're talking about easy, easy schedule.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

He. He is the centerpiece of everything that you put together going forward. You look at this team, they added weapons, they added, you know, Jerry Judy, KJ Hamler, Melvin Gordon Glasgow at center. I mean, they have really done everything in their power to put together a really good offense to match what I think is a. Is a pretty good defense. And none of it matters if Drew Locke isn't good. The whole question is, is Drew Locke actually really good? Can he take that step forward and make those other weapons work or not? He won games, but it was an easy schedule. He wasn't that good. He was bad at throwing the ball accurately, you know, past 10 yards. I'm not a. I'm not confident in Drew Locke as, you know, as a top.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not.

[Andy Holloway]

I am not quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

And you have to make that decision when you invest in all of the weapons around him. Cortland Sutton fared best with Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco was far more accurate than Drew Locke was Locke.

[Mike Wright]

At least Locke finished at 64%. That's still not bad. Like, that's.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just a matter of where you look at where they're throwing. 0 to 5 yards, 0 to 10 yards.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And I'll say this for Sutton, yes, the production was down, but at least he was still the number one target. He was getting at eight targets a game with Drew Locke. His. His target share in those games was actually slightly up compared to the rest of the season. So the. The opportunity for Sutton is still. Was still there, I should say. And you got to project.

[Jason Moore]

You got to project a move, a move of luck to being better or locked to being better then, because, you know, those target numbers combined with the fact he ended up at wide receiver 38 or lower in four of the five games with lockdown.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Shows you, I guess, what concerns exist for any situation with a quarterback transition. I mean, last year, Sutton was wide receiver 13 with Joe Flacco on the season. So any of these teams facing, you know, just to make it more global, any of the teams facing quarterback transitions, this shows you that you can make a transition, still win football games. I mean, the winning argument's tough because we're in the fantasy game. And the Pittsburgh Steelers won games last year don't care. And they did not. Those that did not make, you know, Duck Hodges the future of the team. And I don't want to, you know, when Drew Locke is throwing to Daeshawn Hamilton and he's, you know, he does not have all these weapons that they brought in. That's going to be a problem, too. And he's got a whole nother year to mature. This is not to, you know, don't draft a Bronco. I'm just kind of concerned, and my projection for Lock has him struggling. So wide receiver 19 is where Sutton is being drafted. That's fourth round.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think I want to do that.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't want to do that. He certainly has the ability and with the question mark. And Lock could. Could crush that. He could take a step forward, and Lock takes a step forward, and you end up having a good draft pick there. But, you know, I think are all three of us kind of.

[Jason Moore]

I'm slightly lower than ADP on Sutton. I'm at 23.

[Andy Holloway]

Are all three of us. I know Andy and I, based on what we just said, are not believers in Lock as a true franchise quarterback. Where do you stand, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

I. I don't think I feel strongly one way or the other.

[Andy Holloway]

It was. So you're in the five games right.

[Mike Wright]

At the end of the season. It's.

[Jason Moore]

I'm.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not taking a bunch from that sample size, so I. I just don't know. He's surrounded. So if, like, what we're. What we're saying of. If Drew Lock fails, it's Drew Lock's fault. The last month, the people around him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah, exactly. The last month with Drew Lock, Cortland Sutton was the wide receiver 48. That's below wide receiver 19. Where he's being drafted. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And, you know, we've seen players go one direction or the other in that sophomore year, that next opportunity. We've seen golf make huge improvements. That one of the big changes for this team is making the decision to bring in Pat Schumer.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

At offensive coordinator, which I think is a good move. It was the head coach in New York for a couple of years. I think he's a good addition. I like him. I thought he got a rough situation in New York, and he might be just one of those guys that's better as a coordinator, AKA Norv Turner type of coach. But you give Pat Shermer some weapons, you give Drew Locke an off season.

[Andy Holloway]

I love. I mean, I literally, I look at what Denver has done in the offseason, I go, this is just a home run across. I love. I love the moves they've made. And it's 100% now on lock to step it up. Shermer is going to be good for him, though. He's. He's going to scheme things, pass when.

[Mike Wright]

He should pass, and he'll be good for Melvin Gordon.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Like Schumer. Schumer. Running games historically are great. So that, to me, that. That's the glimmer of hope for me, for Melvin Gordon, because I'm not nearly as bullish on his fantasy prospects as you guys. Like, I see it. I see the path. The opportunity should be there since he was given the money. It's a little. I thought the move was interesting when you have Philip Lindsay, who's having success for your team, that you go out and you dethrone him as the starter with Melvin Gordon.

[Andy Holloway]

But.

[Mike Wright]

But I at least see the path. I don't really want to draft Melvin Gordon.

[Jason Moore]

Who's the. Who's the goal line back in Denver?

[Mike Wright]

Melvin.

[Andy Holloway]

Melvin Gordon.

[Jason Moore]

Who's the passing down back in Denver?

[Andy Holloway]

Melvin Gordon.

[Jason Moore]

That's. That's a little bit. That's the reason I least like him to be like. Do you like. Let me ask you this, Mike. Melvin Gordon or David Montgomery?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's a great question. That's a very good question. And they are, in fact, back to back in my rankings. I have David Montgomery one spot ahead of him.

[Andy Holloway]

I would rather have Melvin Gordon. I think he's. He's actually proven it in the NFL while maybe he isn't the efficiency, you know, leader over his career. He's gotten the job done. He's great around the goal line. He's great as a pass catcher. And he's.

[Jason Moore]

Two revenge games this year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Quick hits right here. Before he closed this team out, the.

[Mike Wright]

Chargers also will want their revenge.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And they've got the defense to give it.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Philip Lindsay. Any value?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Only as a backup.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Not really.

[Jason Moore]

No. Fantastic breakout opportunity.

[Mike Wright]

He is on that list.

[Jason Moore]

Buy or sell.

[Mike Wright]

He's on the list of. That we bring up for Chris herndon of since 2000. You have a very small handful of tight ends who actually hit 500 yards in their rookie year. He did it. But no, I'm not. I'm not in on fant. Not this year.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Las Vegas Raiders.

[Andy Holloway]

The one name we didn't talk about. I just want to mention because with all this talk about all the weapons. Jerry Judy is exceptional. He is.

[Mike Wright]

Love you love Jerry Judy.

[Andy Holloway]

I do love Jerry Judy. I think he's one of those guys that, you know, could make lock better than lock. And so he's one. He's. He's one of Those late dart throws that I would take my shot on that if Lock turns out okay. Because I just, when I watched his tape, he's the only guy that I've ever been able to look at and say, oh, he's. He's kind of got Odell Beckham in him, which, you know, was a. Just a crazy special talent.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's talk about the Raiders. I don't know where to go exactly. This is a different, confusing team because you can make, I think, simultaneous arguments that this team would love to move on from Derek Carr at a moment's notice. You can also make statistical arguments that Derek Carr had the best season of his career last year. Career highs and completion rate. The team was pretty decent. 9th and passing yards per game. They were competing on a regular basis in Jon Gruden's system. They also didn't target the wide receiver at all. They didn't have wide receivers to target was part of the problem. But they were like 30th in the NFL in terms of targeting the wide receiver position. Yeah, Darren Waller, go crazy. Hunter Renfro was hurt for a lot of the year. Tyrell Williams was hurt. This off season they draft Henry Ruggs with the first wide receiver pick of the entire NFL draft. Give me kind of the high level drill down of how you view this offense.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I'll jump in it. I still think that the offense runs through Darren waller. We have 28 times that a tight end has had 1100 or more yards. And like this is, if you want to talk to the regression of Darren Waller, maybe his targets come down. But last year, 1100 yards, we've only seen that 28 times. And of that group, Waller is tied for the lowest touchdowns of that group. Because what do you have? Three, three touchdowns. And 75% of those players, those tight ends had at least seven touchdowns. So you have, you have touchdown positive regression that is coming for Darren Waller. Even if you think that the volume is going to come down, I still think he is the, the key cog of the offense that will make things go. He's the short route guy. I know you know, the slot machine is there holding things down. But like Waller is the one who opens it up for the Henry Ruggs draft pick.

[Jason Moore]

To me it does Henry Ruggs have fantasy value this year?

[Mike Wright]

I think so. I think he will. But the dude, if you want to look at Tyreek Hill and go, the guy is just so fast like you guys, you have to say that about Henry Ruggs. That dude is just so fast that I think he will have value.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he certainly has a skill set that works in the NFL. I just worry that it's not going to be a high volume usage with what I saw in college, the way he was, you know, what the wide receiver, two or three for his own team. You know, the way that you project the Raiders offense forward, like you said, things kind of running through the tight end, which is what Gruden said. And then that's what they did last year. I think in best ball he's got great potential because if you're telling me name a couple players who could have three 70 yard touchdowns this year, Rugs is, is on the short list. But making the start in your redraft or keeper league, I don't want to trust that this season. Josh Jacobs is the piece I want more than anything. Sure. He was not good. He was great and I don't think people realize that because he missed a couple games. He wasn't involved in the passing, you know, on a per game basis. He was third in rushing yards per game up there with Derek Henry and Nick Chubb who were outstanding. That's how good Josh Jacobs was in his rookie year. It's just a matter of whether they can get him more involved in the passing game. And we've talked about this recently. He's going to have more work than you know, he's going to have more than 20 receptions, which is what he.

[Jason Moore]

Had last year, I think Jacobs, I was polled the other day by another fantasy entity about players that could make their debut in that top five. A group of running backs most likely to do it. Jacobs was my answer for basically every breakout category. Missing a few games provides a ADP opportunity for fantasy players to get Josh Jacobs at a better value than they could. It's very similar to me than to the excitement that I had for Dalvin Cook coming into last year. He was the breakout, you know, guy that just stood out to me as somebody that everything's laid out for him to have success this team, you know, he was an investment by Jon Gruden. I'm on board completely. I think he has. Not everybody has the chance to be a top three running back. He has a chance. To me, he's got the shot.

[Andy Holloway]

Josh Jacobs to me is one of my favorite second round picks. If I'm in the second round and I leave with Josh Jacobs anywhere in it. I mean I was, I was the second pick in the second round in an industry mock and I took Jacobs, I absolutely love his upside and the fact that he can be your second running back or you can have, you know, a Michael Thomas paired with someone that could be that top five guy. I just absolutely love the potential.

[Jason Moore]

Jacobs is not a hard sell, is there? Are you looking at Derek Carr in two quarterback situations at all with upside if he's got, you know, improved weapons? If Josh Jacobs is involved in the passing game and you believe in what he can do with the ball in his hands, do you have any belief in Derek Carr?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, this might sound like a cop out, but it's actually 100% true. Derek Carr is my absolute favorite target in a two quarterback league as my third quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

That, like, that is not very nice.

[Andy Holloway]

But it kind of is because I believe Derek Carr can actually be really, really good this year. But I worry about Marcus Mariota, you know, it's like Gardner Minshew. He can suck all season. They got nobody else to go to. If Derek Carr and the Raiders are struggling.

[Mike Wright]

Say that about Mike Glennon.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. If Derek Carr and the Raiders are struggling, there will be clamoring for their $15 million backup quarterback. But I think he's good. And if they can win enough games and move forward offensively, he's one of those guys that's there in the group of the third quarterbacks being drafted in two quarterback leagues. And you want a third quarterback? He's the guy I target.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's talk about Darren Waller before we move on from this team. Last year, big time season, Mike says the offense is still going to go through him. Draft costs, 6 round pick, tight end, 5. Are you comfortable?

[Mike Wright]

I'm okay with it. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You want to know what makes me uncomfortable? And it's really dumb.

[Mike Wright]

Is Powder.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Super dumb. Why did they. Why did anybody invent this thing? It's the worst. No, it's the fact that one of my biggest fears is the history we have over the last couple of years of these round five, six tight ends. Every time that there's the round five, round six tight end seems like the next guy after all the good guys, they always bust. And so I kind of am fearful that way because you can see how it, how it happens. I mean, they had no wide receivers to throw the ball to. Hunter Renfro didn't get started early, then he got injured. Then they add Nelson Aguilar. They add. They get Tyrell Williams back, you know, from his injury. They add Henry Ruggs, they add Brian Edwards. There is a very clear and obvious path for the team to not run through Darren Waller. I still have him as my Fifth tight end past those four aforementioned, you know, much clearer higher tier tight ends. But I, I pass him in every draft that I've, I've been in plenty of drafts where it's like, oh, I need a tight end. Darren Waller's highest on my board. He's available here. Nope. I like other running max and wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

I will say it now, last year is kind of proof that this doesn't always happen. But frequently those middle tier tight ends, the middle round guys, it's, you're going for the older tight end who just like they're, they're, they feel like they're on the way down. But Darren Waller is still young and athletic enough. Just got the bag of, I think that he's still safe.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Anything else you want to talk about with the Las Vegas Raiders? Shall we move on? All right. Wrapping it up with the Los Angeles chargers last year 5 and 11 season did not go the way that they thought it would go. Philip Rivers is now gone. Anthony Lynn at head coach still around. I like Anthony Lynn. They've had some.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think he's a good coach.

[Jason Moore]

Tough luck over the last couple of years. No more Rivers, no more Gordon though. Those were kind of the fantasy foundation of that team for the past five years. No.

[Mike Wright]

And then they like upgraded at the running back position addition by subtraction.

[Jason Moore]

You're talking about Austin Meckler.

[Mike Wright]

That's who I'm talking about.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So Austin Eckler is the starting running back of this team. A team that now has a new quarterback that may or may not be Tyrod Taylor for a number of weeks. That may be Justin Herbert who was drafted with the six overall pick. They had Joshua Kelly in the fourth round. A running back that will be complimentary to Austin Eckler and to Justin Jackson. And I think this is one of those teams with a million question marks because much like Denver, where the office is going to go as far as Drew Lock can take them, you know, you need to have some level of confidence in who's throwing the football to make bets on players like Keenan Allen or Austin Eckler and the receiving totals he had from last season or even Mike Williams, you know, somebody whose name isn't brought up at all last year. His name is brought up all the time because he's coming off a double digit touchdown season and Philip Rivers is there. I don't know if we said Mike Williams name on the show.

[Andy Holloway]

It's tough to want the number two wide receiver when you don't want the number One wide receiver. And that's not to say that's a very fair point. That's not to say that I wouldn't want Keenan Allen on my team. He's a phenomenal receiver. But we've brought up the point before when great receivers have a lull in their quarterbacks. You know, we saw it with Fitz. All of a sudden they don't have a great fantasy output. You know, you're talking about a wide receiver too. And the passing volume is the number one thing that scares the heck out of me with the Chargers. I project for them to be a low passing volume team. I have from the get go. I think Tyrod Taylor is going to start at least half the season. And you know, keep in mind Anthony Lynn, he's the head coach. He was the offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills. With Tyrod Taylor, they've ran together. They've. They've installed an NFL system with those two together. And it was back to back years of bottom of the barrel passing offense. And they were fine. They had a good defense. They weren't, they weren't an atrocious team. It worked for the NFL, but it didn't work for fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

So you love Austin Eckler then?

[Andy Holloway]

That's my problem with Austin Eckler is because his value comes much more as a receiver than as a runner. He was, he was fine as a runner. But if they end up having, you know, Justin Jackson helping carry that workload, Joshua Kelly, the rookie they brought in, and all of a sudden Austin Eckler's passing receiving work goes way down. That's, that's a scary proposition.

[Jason Moore]

Let's not rediscuss Austin Eckler. We talked about it.

[Mike Wright]

But I have, but I have some good points.

[Jason Moore]

Free agent frenzy and early breakouts and busts.

[Mike Wright]

It's too bad I looked something else different up because I wanted to bring.

[Andy Holloway]

This is new, this is new. This is a new.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to sway Jason.

[Jason Moore]

All right, go ahead, go ahead.

[Andy Holloway]

Got my listening cap on.

[Mike Wright]

All right, first off, let's, let's talk about Austin Eckler on the ground. Those first four games from Melvin Gordon wasn't there. He averaged 14 attempts a game. That's over, that's way over. 200 carries.

[Andy Holloway]

Not new for the season.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just saying I want to combo with that, with. Why do we like, you know, like Mark Ingram, why do we talk so much about running backs who have very mobile rushing quarterbacks and you're not giving the same benefit of the doubt to Austin Eckler? Taylor is very mobile. He will open things up for Austin Eckler on the ground. I didn't, I haven't heard us make that exact same argument for him. And then I wanted to talk about the passing volume. The last year with Taylor and Buffalo. McCoy had 77 targets in. In that season. He ran 326 routes that year. Last year Austin Eckler ran 362 routes and he was competing for time with Melvin Gordon. He wasn't the number one running back on the team the whole entire season. He's going to run a bunch of routes like I don't. Yes, the targets are going to come down, but I think that you're the gloom and doom of. Well, his, his receiving work is just cut in half at the, at the best case scenario. I think that's not, I don't think that's the right way to look.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's intellectually the team. I think it's intellectually dishonest to compare Austin Eckler with the full workhorse, Shady, who was the clear bell cow for their team. If you think Austin Eckler is going to inherit a bell cow role here and Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelly aren't going to be involved, then it is absolutely a fair comp. He could dominate the same way that Shady did. I think he has the talent to do it. I do not think for one second he's going to be a bell cow back. That's out there for, you know, soaking up the rushing, the receiving, just everything that the offense is doing.

[Jason Moore]

Let me throw one more thing in as just a reminder. The reason I like Austin Eckler is because even if you're right about some of it coming down, none of us are making the argument he will finish as the running back six. The running back six is where Austin Eckler finished last season when he did have Melvin Gordon there for 12 of 16 games. So it's easier for me to rationalize a position as a fringe running back one when it means a reduction in his fantasy output as part of that. So that's why I'm kind of more on board. It will be different, but they will still have to run an offense and Austin Eckler was paid this offseason. Austin Eckler is fundamental to the offense. Whether that translates to RB10, RB20 will be contingent on how much passing work he gets. Most likely.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I have him at the RB17, which means I think he's going to be a very valuable, useful fantasy player.

[Jason Moore]

You say RB 70, 17.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, but, but where he's being drafted, he won't ever end up on my team because he's being drafted, you know, as a, as a back end. One, early, early two. And to speak to Mike's point about the Baltimore Ravens, they ran 596 times last year. You look at the Arizona.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not talking about volume. I was talking about we like running backs who are playing with running. We like running. We like running backs who play with running quarterbacks because it just naturally helps them.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, it helps their efficiency, but the efficiency still has to look at volume.

[Jason Moore]

Two, they start the season against Cincinnati, which means that if you did take a gamble on a, you know, a first weak start at quarterback with the tyrod Taylor, it might not be the end of the World 2 Quarterback League. Look at those Week 1 or 2 matchups. I mean opportunity. Is there other players on this team worth discussing? You know, I'm lower on Keenan Allen, that's for sure. Go ahead, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I say Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen is so hard because I think that the transition at quarterback affects him more than Austin. And it, betting against Keenan Allen is, it hurts inside like it hurts my heart because Keenan Allen is great. Keenan Allen is a true number one wide receiver. If you look at the reception perception metrics he puts up in every single year. He is an elite route runner. The way that you talk about like Stefan Diggs. Keenan Allen gets open all the time. So let's. But I agree that there will be some volume differences with Taylor running things. And so it has, it has concerns for what he can do. He's already, you know, an up and down fantasy wide receiver but when he is on a hot streak, he wins you multiple weeks in a row by himself.

[Jason Moore]

I feel like this is the perfect show to illustrate the fact that quarterback transition makes a humongous difference with what Drew Lock and Court. We all believe Cortland Sutton is a monster. I believe Larry Fitzgerald's pretty good. He had three different years with quarterback transitions where he disappeared during his prime. From a fantasy perspective, you know, he went from monstrous seasons to, you know, 600 something yards, 800 yards. I mean you have to make a bet. And there are times when players like DeAndre Hopkins has have waited through multiple crappy quarterbacks and been fine. But then there's been situations like Larry Fitzgerald when they haven't. And because of the volume mixed into like I don't think Taylor's going to be throwing the ball as well as Philip Rivers throws the football. That cause and because they think a more conservative offensive mindset is going to hurt him a little bit. I'm just out on Allen compared to draft price, but everybody has to make that decision because the talent is obviously tremendous. He's wide receiver 22 right now.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the one, the one point I wanted to make for Mike Williams is that Taylor, Taylor throws the ball deep like the volume is down. But in his time at Buffalo, he was always in the top half when it came to percentage of throws that are going deep. In his first year, he threw it at a deep rate of 18.2%. That's. I mean, he had Sammy Watkins there. But I at least wanted to bring up Mike Williams, who, according to reception perception, he has the ninth best success rate on nine routes. I mean, you got a wide receiver who's good at running a nine, who is elite at contested catch. You pair that with a quarterback who does like to throw the ball deep. I think Mike Williams might be undervalued.

[Andy Holloway]

That's worth it.

[Jason Moore]

25 years old, 6, 4, 2, 21st.

[Andy Holloway]

Round NFL draft pick. He's. He's great. I don't think anybody, I would want Mike Williams on my NFL team. That's for sure. For fantasy, I think maybe you bring up a good point here, Mike. When it comes for when you're at those later guys, Mike Williams fits the bill for a best ball. Because if you're going to get those big deep, you know, if his passing volume comes down, but he's going to have some long, bomb touchdowns, that's good. When you don't have to make the.

[Jason Moore]

Decision and he doesn't. He's never dependent on volume. I mean, 49 catches last year for 1,000 yards. Just 20 per catch. Do it on three or four plays a game.

[Mike Wright]

My goodness. What? Hold on. Is that really the line that he put up?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

20 hearts of reception.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I'm not sure. Brooks, do you know if that's number one in football? I think it's got to be. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Number one season.

[Andy Holloway]

What's A.J. brown?

[Mike Wright]

Not 20.4, but.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I thought he was in the 20s.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, it's 20.2.

[Andy Holloway]

I was such a dummy.

[Jason Moore]

All right, that's gonna do it for today's episode of the podcast. We'll be back with a Saturday episode. Remember, three shows a week and four if you're a [e-mail] mailbag question coming tomorrow. Talk to you then.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on Join the football and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.