AFC West Breakdown + Vegas Super Bowl Picks

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Episode: AFC West Breakdown + Vegas Super Bowl Picks
Release Date: July 16, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

---

Introduction & Community Highlights

The episode kicks off with the trio engaging in their signature banter, setting a lively and welcoming tone for seasoned listeners and newcomers alike. Andy Holloway invites fans to join the Foot Clan community for premium resources and league participation, emphasizing the collaborative spirit of the podcast.

Andy Holloway [00:00]:
"Become part of the Foot [e-mail] that's where our community gathers."

---

Upcoming Events: MegaLeague & Listener League

The hosts introduce exciting upcoming events, including the highly anticipated MegaLeague—a massive tournament open to all Foot Clan members. Andy explains that the winner will secure automatic entry into next year's Listener League, adding an extra layer of competition and engagement for listeners.

Andy Holloway [02:50]:
"The Megalobol is going to be a giant massive tournament with every Foot Clan member that wants to join up into that league."

---

News and Notes

The segment covers recent NFL news affecting fantasy football prospects:

1. Melvin Gordon & Ezekiel Elliott Contract Situations

   • Mike Wright discusses the implications of Melvin Gordon demanding a new contract and Ezekiel Elliott potentially holding out, assessing the impact on their respective teams and fantasy value.

   Mike Wright [07:33]:
   "Well, Melvin Gordon came out last week and said, hey, I'm not showing up without some money."

2. Darius Gile’s Hamstring Injury

   • Concerns arise over Gile's recurring injuries, with Jason Moore expressing skepticism about his return to form post-ACL tear.

   Jason Moore [09:05]:
   "Darius Guy suffered a hamstring injury... This is no good, man."

3. Ronald Jones’ Weight Gain

   • The discussion centers on Ronald Jones adding 13 pounds, with mixed feelings about his increased weight potentially affecting his agility and pass-protection skills.

   Jason Moore [12:35]:
   "I hate when running backs put on weight. It doesn't pay off in the way that I look at it."

4. Proposed 18-Game NFL Schedule

   • Andy Holloway critiques the NFL's proposal for an 18-game schedule capped at 16 regular-season games for player participation, highlighting its potential disruptions to team dynamics and fantasy strategies.

   Andy Holloway [14:19]:
   "The NFL's preposterous proposal... I can't imagine it happens either."

---

AFC West Divisional Breakdown

The core of the episode delves deep into the AFC West, analyzing each team’s prospects for the upcoming season and their fantasy implications.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

   • Patrick Mahomes' Production: The hosts debate whether Mahomes can replicate his stellar touchdown numbers without Tyreek Hill, considering the introduction of Sammy Watkins as a potential replacement. Jason Moore expresses doubts about Mahomes maintaining high touchdown totals, citing historical quarterback performances.

     Jason Moore [18:35]:
     "Three times in the history of the NFL, only three times has a quarterback thrown 50 or more touchdowns... I'm going to look at the analytics and the probability of him throwing 40 or more touchdowns."

   • Damian Williams vs. Carlos Hyde: Andy Holloway advocates for drafting Damian Williams as a late-round flyer, while Jason Moore remains cautious about Carlos Hyde's efficiency as a pass-catcher.

     Andy Holloway [21:57]:
     "I think Damian Williams is going to succeed in this offense if he's been given the green light to be the guy."

   • Hunter Henry’s Fantasy Value: Andy predicts over 700 receiving yards for Hunter Henry, positioning him as a strong tight end option.

     Andy Holloway [31:13]:
     "I have Hunter Henry as one of the top half tight ends this year in fantasy, just behind Vance McDonough and O.J. Howard."

2. Los Angeles Chargers

   • Keenan Allen’s Consistency: The discussion revolves around Keenan Allen's value in the third round after a slightly disappointing previous season. Andy Holloway views him as a fair third-round pick, while Mike Wright questions whether his average draft position (ADP) reflects his true potential.

     Andy Holloway [28:09]:
     "I wouldn't call him a value because he's not one of these guys that goes out and just completely dominates for a season in fantasy."

   • Philip Rivers’ Stability: Philip Rivers is characterized as a consistent but middling quarterback option, suitable for streaming based on favorable matchups.

     Jason Moore [34:15]:
     "I would rather stream the position and get a guy. I'll stream Philip Rivers. I'll look at the matchups where he's got a great matchup and throw him in there."

3. Denver Broncos

   • Emmanuel Sanders & Cortland Sutton: Mike Wright and Andy Holloway evaluate Sanders' comeback from injury and Sutton’s potential rise as the team's primary wide receiver.

     Mike Wright [37:00]:
     "I'm raising my range on Emmanuel Sanders, trusting his recovery... Cortland Sutton offers more touchdown upside."

   • Philip Lindsay vs. Royce Freeman: The debate centers on drafting Philip Lindsay at a favorable ADP over Royce Freeman, given Lindsay’s recent injury but high upside upon return.

     Jason Moore [44:10]:
     "If I have to take one of them, I'll still take Lindsay there."

4. Oakland Raiders

   • Derek Carr’s Performance: The hosts express skepticism about Carr’s ability to maintain his quarterback performance, citing changes in offensive coordination and the departure of key players like Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams.

     Jason Moore [45:31]:
     "How do you catch with those pads on your fingertips? Is it the claws?"

   • Antonio Brown’s Fantasy Impact: Despite uncertainties around Carr, Andy opts to prioritize Antonio Brown due to his high target volume, though he notes a potential drop in touchdown opportunities.

     Andy Holloway [49:00]:
     "I still have him with an astronomical target volume. What won't be there the way it was in Pittsburgh is the touchdown numbers."

---

Mailbag: Listener Questions and Advice

The hosts address listener inquiries, offering tailored advice to enhance fantasy team management:

1. Bench Size & League Settings

   • Keith from Albuquerque suggests removing kickers to add an extra flex position, questioning the ideal bench size for effective waiver wire management.

     Jason Moore [53:49]:
     "I would just keep it at six."

2. Position Projection Strengths

   • Derek from Orange County asks which positions each host excels at projecting. Andy acknowledges his strength in scouting running backs, while Mike notes his accuracy with running backs and wide receivers during the season.

     Andy Holloway [54:47]:
     "I know when it comes to like rookie scouting, I am better at scouting running backs than quarterbacks."

3. Running Back Preferences: Joe Mixon vs. James Conner

   • Henry from Cincinnati inquires about the preference between drafting Joe Mixon or James Conner, especially in PPR leagues.

     Jason Moore [56:24]:
     "I would much rather take James Conner than Joe Mixon."

     Andy Holloway [56:28]:
     "I would definitely rather have James Conner than Joe Mixon."

4. Platform Recommendations & Player Valuations

   • Henry from Cincinnati also asks about convincing leagues to switch to the Sleeper app and whether Zach Ertz is being drafted at his ceiling.

     Jason Moore [58:31]:
     "Yes, he's being drafted at his ceiling to me."

     Mike Wright [58:42]:
     "They are very customizable and they're always listening, trying to make the platform better and better."

---

Final Thoughts & Resources

As the episode concludes, the hosts promote their Ultimate Draft Kit as an invaluable resource for fantasy players, emphasizing its comprehensive tools and continuous updates to aid in draft preparation.

Jason Moore [27:00]:
"The Ultimate Draft Kit is a research tool. It's not just a point at that player you should draft. There's tons and tons of information in here that you can actually form your own opinion."

They also highlight PristineAuction.com and FantasyChamps.com, encouraging listeners to utilize promotional codes for exclusive deals.

---

Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore [20:12]:
  "Look, I think the odds are that... you're going to be hurting your fantasy roster."

• Andy Holloway [31:13]:
  "I think Damian Williams is going to succeed in this offense if he's been given the green light to be the guy."

• Mike Wright [37:00]:
  "What do you guys think?"

---

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast offers a thorough analysis of the AFC West, providing insightful projections and strategic advice for fantasy football enthusiasts. The hosts blend expert knowledge with engaging discussions, ensuring listeners are well-equipped to make informed decisions for their fantasy teams.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot clan. You enjoy this show? You ready to rock this season out in fantasy football, Become part of the foot [e-mail] that's where our community gathers. That's where you have access to all of our premium resources, our in season tools, and of course, foot clan leagues. The foot clan leagues. You can find other people in your area or online. And if you're in the join the foot. If you're an official foot clan member, you will be able to get in this year's megaloman. So check it out. Go to jointhefoot.com hi, this is Josh from Louisville, Kentucky representing the International seven time zones Dynasty league. And you're listening to the fantasy Footballers podcast. Welcome to the Fantasy footballers podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, welcome in. Brand new show, a brand new day, Mike. A brand new day.

[Jason Moore]

Thought you were gonna go brand new show, brand new clothes. Because you're a little fashionista.

[Mike Wright]

16 0. The Cardinals are going 16 0. I've got an Arizona Cardinals shirt on today, so I'm very excited.

[Jason Moore]

Vintage.

[Mike Wright]

It is vintage.

[Jason Moore]

Vintage.

[Mike Wright]

I got some Cardinals kicks on, too.

[Jason Moore]

That's the type of Cardinal that does not exist in Arizona.

[Andy Holloway]

That is a St. Louis Cardinals shirt on top of a football.

[Mike Wright]

You guys don't know this? I mean, they used to be the Chicago Cardinals. This is a Chicago Cardinal shirt.

[Jason Moore]

I did know that.

[Mike Wright]

So you tried to outsmart me with a different wrong answer.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I was not talking about football.

[Jason Moore]

It's the baseball low.

[Andy Holloway]

Thus me specifying that he's on a.

[Mike Wright]

Here's a. Here's a couple things to get into. We got AFC west divisional breakdown on the show today. A good quick question. Some mailbag. We just got back from San Francisco.

[Jason Moore]

We made it out.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, my gosh.

[Jason Moore]

We made it out alive. The show was rowdy. The people over there have a lot of things to say, but thank you for coming out. We went over after the show and we.

[Mike Wright]

Would you play some shuffleboard?

[Jason Moore]

There was some unfortunate fans who thought they were good at shuffleboard, but they.

[Andy Holloway]

Teach them a lesson.

[Jason Moore]

Well, we had to crush them.

[Mike Wright]

You smoke them?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Wait, like they started with a 51 lead and they said. And they said, jump in here, guys.

[Andy Holloway]

We're like, all right.

[Mike Wright]

You went all day.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And then they got destroyed.

[Mike Wright]

They went all Falcons.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not sure at the beginning of the show if anybody actually understood the words you were kind of screaming, but that you were talking about the megalobol.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

So this is the. Why don't you explain that for two seconds. Just sure.

[Andy Holloway]

It's coming later. Get in it yet. But it is coming. And the Megalobol is going to be a giant massive tournament with every Foot Clan member that wants to join up into that league. Into that league. Whoever wins automatic entry into the Listener League the next year. It's coming. It was a crazy time last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The Listener League. We'll talk about that too in coming weeks. I mean, August is almost here. We're going to get through these divisional breakdowns.

[Jason Moore]

I'm excited to sneak up on you.

[Andy Holloway]

Snuck up on me quick. August is almost here.

[Mike Wright]

I know.

[Andy Holloway]

Listener League is going to get going.

[Jason Moore]

Wow. August moves very silent.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Very stealth mover.

[Mike Wright]

Sneakiest of months. Here's your quick question today. If you were a betting man as Brooks poses the question. Actually I give credit to Kyle jumped in. What current Vegas odds stand out to you the most and why? We have the super bowl odds that have been released coming out of Vegas. For example, The Chiefs at 6 to 1 got the Rams, the Patriots and the Saints at 8 to 1. Obviously you've got Miami sitting there at 300 to 1.

[Jason Moore]

That's how you win big.

[Mike Wright]

My 16 and oh, Arizona Cardinals are sitting at 100 to 1. But is there one specific line that I don't know, you want in on? For me, there were two that jumped out. I'll go with the Philadelphia Eagles at 20 to 1. If I had to pick two teams to represent their respective conferences, it would be Philly and the Colts. So I like their odds.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the Colts were my pick. They've been my. Where are they at right now? They're the same as the Eagles. Yeah. I mean the Colts are in Indianapolis, Andy, but the. That's a mic joke for you. Yeah, they're 20 to 1 right now.

[Jason Moore]

Saying it was hilarious.

[Andy Holloway]

I looked over.

[Jason Moore]

Andy's confused.

[Andy Holloway]

Your face was so happy. So that's. That's appropriate. So look, I like the Colts as.

[Mike Wright]

Trying to be nice.

[Andy Holloway]

My like current who's my pick to win the Super Bowl? It's currently the Colts. And you know, look, 20 to 1 odds, I like it. If you want a dark horse. If you want like the longest odds that I think does have a shot, I would throw the Carolina Panthers out.

[Mike Wright]

There at 60 to 1.

[Andy Holloway]

At 60.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that's not bad. That's not bad. The couple teams, I liked it where it was.

[Mike Wright]

Cleveland at 20 to 1. By the way, they've got to be freaking out just about the odds they don't even need to play the season.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

20 to 1. That's beautiful.

[Jason Moore]

Look, I like. I like the Browns a lot. I think they're going to be better but that's just. That's Vegas stealing people's money. Yeah. So I went with a couple mid. Mid tier options where I believe they could actually re improve what is like a bounce.

[Mike Wright]

Not no start over.

[Jason Moore]

Well, that's a bounce back. I was trying to find a more eloquent proof. I knew that was not right.

[Mike Wright]

Jason Esque.

[Jason Moore]

But did you know what I meant?

[Andy Holloway]

I knew exactly what you meant.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

A nice post.

[Jason Moore]

Hype sleeper both sitting at 40 to 1. The Atlanta Falcons and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Who both I think could be Great again. And 40 to 1. That. That's a good line. That's how you win big.

[Mike Wright]

He foles taking them to the Super Bowl.

[Jason Moore]

Look.

[Andy Holloway]

Portals almost did it.

[Jason Moore]

I would say their defense taking them to the Super Bowl.

[Mike Wright]

Atlanta, we've talked about their kind of. They have this nice schedule. When it pertains to dome games, warm weather games, every single game on the season. It's where Matt Ryan plays.

[Jason Moore]

I call those room temperatures his best.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, room temperature. It's room temperature in here right now.

[Jason Moore]

No, it's not. We live in Arizona.

[Mike Wright]

But they do have a tough schedule. That's a tough division. I love Atlanta as a pick. As a dark horse pick for sure. Gonna be interesting to see who emerges. Somebody has to finish last in that division. I think Bruce Arians is gonna have to accept his.

[Jason Moore]

Oh no, not Bruce.

[Mike Wright]

You can find this show on YouTube. YouTube.com the fantasy footballers on Instagram, Twitter @the ff ballers. The website's the fantasy footballers.com. we also appreciate everybody who is subscribing. Get on board. Five shows a week starting August 1st. It's going to be fun. A brand new season. I was encouraged hearing that there have been at least three small itty bitty baby meetings between the NFL and the nflpa.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Because I would like football to continue indefinitely because it's my job. All right, let's get into. Let's get into some news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by slee.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Melvin Gordon came out last week and said, hey, hey, I'm not showing up without some money. Well, Zeke, it's being reported by Pro Football Talk that Zeke has privately said he will hold out of training camp unless he gets a new contract. I Do you believe that this is as concerning as the Gordon news? I am not afraid of Gordon not playing. I know, Jason, you are very afraid of that. Zeke has an extra year on the contract. Seems like maybe a flex and just missed training camp. Show up and do his thing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The hard part for Zeke is like when guys go with this threat and they do miss time, the fines that they accrue, those end up getting kind of just wink, wink, we'll take them out. Here's your new contract. But if he pulls this kind of a stunt and then there's no actual new contract, the team has the right then to, depending how much time he misses that he could get a huge fine. So I don't think that he's going to miss much of training camp, if any.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Because he's still two years away. He's in the fourth year. He'll get a fifth year option and then that's when he would, you know, really have to have a new contract. I feel like this is one of those flexes where, hey, I'm going to. I'm going to miss some so that, you know, I want a new contract, then I'll be back. I'll be fine. I'm not really worried about the Zeke situation when it comes to missing games.

[Mike Wright]

No, not for this year. But this can be one of those kind of inflection or the spark of a problem happens. Now I remember this in Arizona with Anquan Bolden's contract situation. Even if this year they don't give him a contract, he comes back and plays. It's only going to be worse for the Cowboys next offseason because he'll be in the same situation Gordon is in going into that fifth year. Just something to keep your eyes on. Darius Guy suffered a hamstring injury while rehabbing. Now, when this news broke originally it seemed like a fresh injury. The news came out after that that Geist's injury happened a few weeks ago. You know, Geist downplayed the injury, said there's no reason for concern. He's a liar. There's always reason for concern when you have re injury during the recovery from a major surgery in which you had a setback and a follow up surgery. This is not Darius Geiss's ear.

[Jason Moore]

And that's what the hamstring injury guys coming back from the ACL tear, they are very susceptible to getting that hamstring injury. And these, this is no good, man. This is what we were talking about. Geist and his value just a couple shows ago where it's. He's kind of trending down the middle of the rounds. Maybe I'LL take a shot on it. But if we're, if we are talking about guy's recovering from hamstring issues in training camp, then just no thanks and I will take my shot. I'll grab Adrian Peterson late.

[Mike Wright]

So it does it, does it affect your perception, Jason, on Peterson as a late round?

[Andy Holloway]

It makes me feel more confident in taking Peterson as a late round guy. That will start the year with a good workload. I don't think. Look, they call him Darius Glass.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, they do.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I've seen that you apparently do that on Twitter. Look, he is having some health problems. I wouldn't come in and just be like, okay, he's the lead dog now. He's going to run the show. Like, I don't think that's, I don't think that's wise. So I do like Adrian Peterson as a late round flyer. To start your season off strong, the.

[Mike Wright]

NFL is suspended officially. Chris Herndon, jets tight end for the first four games of the season due to his substance abuse policy violation, pled guilty back in 2018 to a DUI.

[Andy Holloway]

He is appealing. That's the word on the street. So he's appealing. He is appealing because usually there's a two game suspension and because there was another person at risk, they made it four. So it is possible that this gets reduced. But I mean, either way it's irrelevant. You cannot draft Chris Herndon because you're not drafting a maybe takes a step up tight end who's not playing for sure.

[Mike Wright]

Ronald Jones. It's reported he is up to 221lb after playing at 208. When we were talking about Ronald Jones in the draft season last last year, the big problem was weight. You just don't have efficient, effective workload guys at 200, 205. The Reggie Bush category of size. He's at 221. Says he put on a lot of pounds of muscle. Sounds like something you would say. 2018, second round pick has a great opportunity this year. Peyton Barber may be the guy, but he's not a special running back. So you have an opportunity.

[Jason Moore]

This whole news segment is just me shaking my head. This is all, it's all bad news right now. We need some positivity.

[Mike Wright]

But you're taking this Ronald Jones putting on 13 pounds.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Running back.

[Mike Wright]

You called him underweight all off season as bad news.

[Jason Moore]

I did not. I wasn't going after his weight when I was attacking him. I was going after. He can't do certain things right now. Maybe you're thinking, okay, he Adds weight and he could pass protect better. But pass protecting is not just. I mean we've seen Jacques Rogers who is not a large guy. He's been an excellent pass protector. It's a, it's a technique and a mentality that Ronald Jones just doesn't have. I hate when running backs put on weight. It doesn't pay off in the way that I look at it and in all my research, running backs adding weight, you think it sounds awesome. But Ronald Jones is calling card was speed, it was agility. And now he's 13 pounds heavier. That's a lot of extra weight. And we had some friends who were at the sportscon event this past weekend saying yes, he's put on weight. He doesn't look like he's in putting adding football weight.

[Andy Holloway]

He looks, he doesn't look like he's in football shape.

[Jason Moore]

He is looking a little couch potatoey. So like I cannot neither confirm or deny.

[Andy Holloway]

I also put on 13 pounds of muscle recently.

[Mike Wright]

I think couch potato we weight is the worst descriptor you could ever have for weight like that is just humiliating. Levels of weight, like that's a new category.

[Jason Moore]

But no, this is, this is not good.

[Mike Wright]

Put on some roly poly weight. All right, I do want to bring this up because you know the listeners, they probably want to hear us weigh in a little bit about a rumored 18 game schedule. Do you want to talk about it for a second? Do we have time for that?

[Andy Holloway]

I just want to call it stupid. That's. Yeah, I mean the 18 game schedule, I'm fine with that. But the proposal is that there's a 16 game cap on how many games a player can play in the regular season according to the NFL's proposal. That is the NFL's preposterous proposal. That makes no sense. That means, that means 12% of the games out there. You're going to have a backup quarterback playing. That changes competition, that changes ticket buying, fandom, everything. I mean, look, you're going to. If you're in fantasy, you're definitely going to have a lot more to track and to keep your eyes on when it comes to matchups. And I don't think it's going to happen. I can't imagine it happens either.

[Mike Wright]

All right, that's it for today's news and notes. With fantasy football gearing up, now's the time to ask your commission if you're using the correct. The right. The most flexible platform they should use Sleeper. Check out the Sleeper app. Download it today. All right, we've got a lot to talk about. Let's get started.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's get divisional.

[Mike Wright]

All right. We are traveling to the AFC west today. On the show we're going to break down everything that has gone on with the Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos and Raiders. Talk about our expectations for these teams, hopefully illuminate, hopefully bring to mind some things that will help your fantasy drafts. Talk about expectations. We're going to start with the 12 and 4 Chiefs who just barely won the division over the Chargers last year. Both teams at 12 4. The big story around the Chiefs this off season, there's been several for fantasy purposes. Yes, they've been Damian Williams. Will he be the guy? Will he, is he capable of being a productive NFL and fantasy running back? Obviously all the, you know the legal situation with Tyree Kill. Will Patrick Mahomes have his favorite weapon on the field to continue what he did last year? I mean Patrick Mahomes was unconscious all year long. I mean four touchdowns, four touchdowns, four touchdowns, six touchdowns. He single handedly won leagues.

[Andy Holloway]

So will the cold blooded Sammy Watkins be able to stay healthy this season and step up for fantasy perhaps in the absence of Tyreek Hill. A lot of questions. I agree.

[Mike Wright]

You I saw you retweeted a little bit more of the wisdom look of the Watkins look.

[Andy Holloway]

I had not been following Sammy Watkins Twitter account and that was a mistake. I immediately started following. If you want Jack Handy level inspiration, follow Sammy Watkins Twitter account. It's fantastic.

[Mike Wright]

Let me ask you this question at the top and this was an offense that was obviously incredible last year, ranked third in passing yards per game, first in points per game. At 35 points per game. You know you have the best tight end in football with Travis Kelsey. You had arguably the best wide receiver in football, Tyree Kill last year. This year they go out and they spend a second round draft pick on Mikole Hardman. They spend a sixth round draft pick on Darwin Thompson running back and they bring in Carlos Hyde because Kareem Hunt is gone. Spencer Ware gone, Chris Conley gone. So let me start at the top though. Expectations for Patrick Mahomes, how much do they take a hit? Like regardless of whether you would take Patrick Mahomes high in fantasy drafts, which I know we are not spinning up on Mahomes, right. The likelihood that he doesn't throw 50 touchdown passes is very high. Even with a full kind of allotment of weapons that like that kind of a season doesn't just happen over and over and over again. At least hasn't historically could. I mean it's a brand New season. It could happen, but it's low odds. How much does not having Tyree kill for four or six games affect where you think that production ends up for Patrick Mahomes? Or do you think he just kind of pivots and figures it out and it's demarcus Robinson and Hardman and those other players that, that take up the mantle?

[Jason Moore]

I think he can figure it out, but it's, it's still going to be a, a negative hit to him. And just to put some historical connotation in there, Andy, three times in the history of the NFL, only three times has a quarterback thrown 50 or more touchdowns. Now, that was a season where Patrick Mahomes would be worth the early pick because he's providing you such an edge at the quarterback position. He's outscoring everybody. So yes, he's worth an early round, but he's going to regress. And if you say, well, no, he's going to throw 40, only 13 times in the history of the NFL has a quarterback thrown 40 or more touchdowns. So that is also improbable. I mean, maybe Mahomes is different, maybe he's that different. And we're already witnessing a Hall of Fame career. But call me insane, but I'm going to look at the analytics and the probability of him throwing 40 or more touchdowns. It's just not high when, when, especially when you over succeed the way that he did and losing Tyreek, maybe Me, Cole, the second round pick. Me. Cole Hartman can fill in for a while, but he's still a rookie, so I'm not expecting that to be incredible productions. I'm out on Mahomes at his current draft cost. But I mean, he said all that. He still is the number one quarterback for me. So if he's somehow falling because you play in a league where everyone's. I'm not touching a quarterback till the 10th round in that fifth or sixth round. Sure. Then I'll take a look at funny Mahomes.

[Andy Holloway]

Two of his first three games are really, really tough. Jacksonville and Baltimore. And you assume that those first few games are where he's not going to have Tyree Kill. So the people that are grabbing.

[Mike Wright]

He actually threw zero touchdowns against Jacksonville in his game in Jacksonville last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. So grabbing Mahomes early at the sacrifice of your running back or your wide receiver pick and then getting off to perhaps a slower Mahomes start, even if he finishes the year as the number one, you're going to be hurting your fantasy roster. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I still think the odds Are that, I mean we haven't ranked that way that'll finish number one at the position. He's still an engine by which all of the pieces around him exist with great fantasy joy. You know, whether it's, whether it's looking at Kelsey and what he is for the offense or looking at Damian Williams who all signs are pointing to a heavy workload for Damian Williams. There hasn't been any indication that, you know, if he doesn't do it on the field, maybe there'll be changes but he should have every opportunity. And it's not like a running back getting an opportunity on a middling offense. It means something different when you're in Kansas City. If you get the opportunity in Kansas City, it means that you're a top 10 running back.

[Andy Holloway]

I went back and I watched Damian Williams and looked at some of him in Kansas City and the reality is the same as what I thought then. I don't think he did anything special very often. But the way that they just get the guy open in space, he is a decent pass catching back who is fast and those two qualities when you get them in space and have a really good design by Andy Reid. I think Damian Williams is going to succeed in this offense if he's been given the green light to be the guy. I think you want the guy. I mean you want the number one running back on the best offense.

[Mike Wright]

Kansas City running backs had 12 receiving touchdowns last year.

[Jason Moore]

That number will come down.

[Mike Wright]

That is as many as 11 NFL teams combined. That's part of why Mahomes touchdown total was so high. Is that even the rushing production or you know, the running back production? Part of that came through a ton of receiving touchdowns. If there was a, you know, average draft position wise a ton of Chiefs are being drafted. Kelsey at 203. Damian Williams at 208. Mahomes at 308. Tyreeks right now at 406. That'll change depending on the suspension. Sammy Watkins at 603. Hyde at 9:01. Hardman at 10:01. So is there a favorite value pick for you on the Chiefs and maybe a dark horse pick in terms of fantasy production?

[Jason Moore]

If you're still getting Damian Williams For 208, I'm going to smash that in immediately. But we just had a bet me against Jason. I don't, I don't see him staying there. As the, the hype machine builds and builds and builds. He'll be at worst the very beginning of the second round.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, and I've said this before. But you know, as Sammy Watkins stays and now drops in the sixth round, I think he is a good option. Clearly Mahomes can support a secondary wide receiver. We saw it in.

[Jason Moore]

How do you catch with those pads on your fingertips?

[Andy Holloway]

He gets the job done.

[Jason Moore]

Like is it the claws?

[Andy Holloway]

The extra claws.

[Jason Moore]

The lizard man.

[Mike Wright]

I think it might have been more better for you not to have read the tweets.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Because then you might have just examined, you know, now starting to distort things. I've been willing to not like Sammy Watkins. Totally unrelated to his lizard Persona. Like it's just been based his lizard Dom. Scary. Would you guys even draft Carlos Hyde? I guess I'm surprised to see him in the ninth round. What do you guys think about that? I. I'd love to talk about Hyde for a second because I think that he's a player that could go either direction due to camp in preseason. He should get a lot of time to run in the preseason and if he flashes and looks good, I think he's going to be picked up regularly in leagues. You know what? I draft him right now. I don't know. Probably not.

[Jason Moore]

The signing of Carlos Hyde is so bizarre, so fast because yeah, I mean they're like we got to get some veterans in here. But guys that succeed. Andy or Jason just mentioned that running backs that are fast have great hands and when they're in open space, they make things happen. Carlos Hyde does not check any of those boxes. He's. He is literally one of the most inefficient pass catching running backs since he has entered the league. So the signing is so strange to me in the ninth round. I guess if you want to, if you just want to have that backup plan in case Damian Williams is the guy. But to me, if Damian Williams is not the guy, Carlos Hyde will get a chance and then Carlos Hyde will not be the guy. Like they'll go back to Damian or maybe Darwin Thompson.

[Mike Wright]

Is there any chance that Damian is a majority work share back? But then you have a goal line situation. Carlos Hyde even like right now, I would doubt it.

[Andy Holloway]

And the reason I say I would doubt it is because of the way they use the running backs on the goal line in the passing game. You just brought up the receiving touchdowns from the running back position. They like to use them in that way. And that's not where Carlos Hyde excels. So I would be a little bit surprised.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the Damian Williams discussion in general has been a difficult one because you don't have this. You just have a strange career arc. For him and he's in such a great situation.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. When is the last time that a 27 year old running back has broken into fantasy stardom? It never like has that ever happened.

[Mike Wright]

Every once in a while I'm sure it's happened. Yeah. But it's not a regular thing.

[Jason Moore]

And why it would not surprise me if Carlos, if he maybe he has brought it on the goal line. Even Kareem Hunt's rookie season, it was really obnoxious to see how much Shark Hendrick west would get in there. That's absolutely opportunity. But that didn't stop Kareem Hunt from being a top 10 guy. So I'm not scared of that. Just saying there will be times that Carlos Hyde will annoy you if you have Damian Williams.

[Mike Wright]

All right. We do want to take a quick pause to remind you about the ultimate draft kit@ultimate draftkit.com I mean, every single week we are adding to it. Jason, just this morning got Mark Andrews tossed into those consistency charts, player updates, we got cheat sheets, player videos. We keep improving it and the app is really going to get better and better. We're going to add some tools to help you utilize the app during your draft to keep track of players, some of the things you've been requesting. We're listening. We're going to get it out there and this is something that can help set the foundation for your 2019 season in a really strong fashion.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. What's great about the Ultimate Draft Kit is it's a research tool. It's not just a point at that player you should draft. There's tons and tons of information in here that you can actually form your own opinion because we still want you to have your own opinion. And then if you want a little bit more help, the tiered rankings breakdown, that's how we always handle all of all of our drafts. So check it out. Ultimate Draft Kit.com all right, let's talk.

[Mike Wright]

About the Chargers at 12 and 4, the Chargers last year. I mean this is a great team, a great offense led by a veteran quarterback and Philip Rivers up and coming players at the wide receiver position. Keenan Allen has been consistent. He's been a target monster. Mike Williams exploded last year for double digit touchdowns. You have kind of the contract, the contract standoff situation with Melvin Gordon. But Melvin Gordon has been an absolute beast. He's going with the sixth pick right now in fantasy drafts. Kenan Allen's going in the third round. Is Keenan Allen of value in the third round?

[Andy Holloway]

You know, I mean, I think that's where he belongs. I wouldn't call him a value because he's not one of these guys that goes out and just completely dominates for a season in fantasy. The last couple years have been really weird where he's gotten off to a slower start, had a better stretch, and it really comes down to the touchdowns for him. He's pretty consistent with the volume, but the touchdowns seem to come in spurts. Third round is where, you know, I think he's going to return that value. I don't think he's a bad pick there at all, but I don't. I'm not sitting there seeing his ADP being like, man, that's crazy. He should be back in the first, early second.

[Mike Wright]

I bring it up only because last year he was 206, so the expectations on him have obviously decreased a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

I think it was.

[Andy Holloway]

People were disappointed with Keenan last year.

[Jason Moore]

Because end of season.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. While he ended up pretty similar to his previous year, when he was in the second round last year, people were looking at what he did in that second half. Do you remember where he was basically the number one wide receiver and people thought that would continue last year from the get go and he would just dominate. He didn't do that. So I think people are disappointed. Now. He's about where he should be, I would say.

[Jason Moore]

The end of the season, I think, also skewed the way that people think of him. You had the game against the Chargers in Kansas City where he got hurt essentially immediately posted a zero. So that crushed you. And then only he was basically.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Nothing for the last three games.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. But before that, I mean, he was pacing over nine targets a game, just under seven receptions, 83 yards and half a touchdown a game. I mean, he was. He was actually very, very good. So a third round, I think, is. Is fair because he can still get a little bit hot and cold.

[Mike Wright]

In 2017, he was the number three overall fantasy wide receiver. What is that Incorrect?

[Jason Moore]

I don't remember that. Maybe that was like over the second half.

[Mike Wright]

No, that's. That's right. And that's. That's why that second round. Exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

That's why the second round was there. Last year he finished at 12 because he won.

[Jason Moore]

People lead.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

That's a nice ceiling to have built into a player. That's why I wonder if he could be.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he could be. Could be.

[Mike Wright]

You know, I've painted a lot of the Chargers offense on predictability, but the fact that, like, you know, okay, Tyrell Williams is leaving, that benefits Mike Williams. Not really Thinking, you know, does that just create more dependency on Keenan Allen? For Philip Rivers, this was a. An offensive line that ranked number 13 in football last year. This is an offense that was 10th in passing yards per game. In terms of, you know, you lost Tyrell Williams, he's gone. He was a deep threat. Antonio Gates, he was the. The corpse of Gates was running around a little bit last year. He's gone. And so the Hunter Henry story. Yeah, Hunter Henry is the guy that I think, you know, helps maintain this offense, helps keep this offense in the upper echelon and keeps them competitive with the Chiefs in this division. Keenan, or, I'm sorry, Hunter Henry, expectations for you guys.

[Andy Holloway]

I've got Hunter Henry as one of the top half tight ends this year in fantasy, just behind Vance McDonald and O.J. howard. Those guys, I think Hunter Henry, 700 receiving yards.

[Mike Wright]

What do you think?

[Andy Holloway]

Over, under, over, under. I have Hunter Henry down for 718. So I will take the over. Clear.

[Jason Moore]

But that's. That's interesting. So you, you have the Vance dance slightly above.

[Andy Holloway]

I do. I believe in Vance McDonald. You know, you look at the targets vacated for both teams, and while it's good, like you're missing Antonio Gates, you're missing Tyrell Williams, there's. It's just not comparable to the amount of vacated targets for the Steelers.

[Jason Moore]

So you're probably passing on Hunter Henry then. So.

[Andy Holloway]

Because you can get, based on the.

[Jason Moore]

Hunter, a round or two later. Yeah, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, I've said this before. When it comes to the middle tier guys, pretty much Evan Ingram, O.J. howard, I'm willing to look at them. And after that, I'm actually, you know, just waiting. Waiting forever.

[Mike Wright]

All right, you guys know my love for Mike Williams. I have him ranked at wide receiver 17 on the season. He is one of only five players targeted more than eight times inside the 10 zone in 2018. The others were Michael Thomas, James White, Mike Williams, obviously Corey Davis and Doug Baldwin.

[Jason Moore]

Come on, Corey Davis, get it together, man.

[Mike Wright]

They keep trying. Yeah. So other storylines here. What is Philip Rivers, for fantasy purposes? Is he a consistent middling option?

[Andy Holloway]

That's exactly what he is.

[Jason Moore]

He is a nice 401k where maybe you have enough to live off of, maybe you don't.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, he has been so fine. Yeah, eighth in 2017. Last year he was the 11th ranked quarterback. I mean, he's generally been in that top 12 category. It looks like eight of 10 years, but it's always near the back of it. So he can, basically, he can beat you on a certain week, but he doesn't generally end up with big numbers over the course of the year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, if you look at his season as a whole, he ends up as a quarterback one, but usually he spends the majority of his weeks outside of the top 12. But. But not very far beyond that. I mean, last year you had looks like six games where he was a top 10 quarterback, which is. That's, that's okay. That's good. But that means that there's 10 games where he wasn't and he never finishes extremely low. Right. He's. He's never going to be the 30th quarterback in the week because he's a, you know, he's a vet. I mean, look, week in, week out, ranked 15th, ranked 13th, ranked 14th, ranked 18th. Just looking at his numbers for weeks last year, and it's like, that's not going to help you win in a fantasy league, in my opinion. I would rather stream the position and get a guy. I'll stream Philip Rivers. I'll look at the matchups where he's got a great matchup and throw him in there.

[Jason Moore]

His numbers are wild, man. When you actually look at what he was doing last year until those final three weeks, I know we're talking about he's outside of the top 10, but I mean, it took until week 13 or game 13 that he was throwing that he threw fewer than two touchdowns. So, I mean, he was very consistent. He was perfectly consistent and just a nice floor.

[Andy Holloway]

But are you happy with that general fantasy question?

[Mike Wright]

I'm not happy with that.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you happy with someone that consistently doesn't put up a goose egg but never gives you at the quarterback position?

[Jason Moore]

The boom, the.

[Andy Holloway]

A weak winning performance?

[Mike Wright]

No, not, not really wanting to draft that. I, maybe I end up flexing into that week to week, but I want to talk, I want to circle back to Melvin Gordon for a second because this team is predicated on. They want to be a great defense. They're in the top 10, you know, in defensive rushing yards per game, defensive passing yards per game. Melvin Gordon's a part of being that kind of a team. You get to grind it out with Melvin Gordon. If Gordon misses time, how are you shifting your mind? Like, what are you doing as a fantasy owner with Austin Eckler and Justin Jackson? What is your kind of prescription for people with like, I'm not that worried about Gordon, but at the same time, you still have to think about a plan for this offense and how much does it hurt without Gordon?

[Andy Holloway]

I think Justin Jackson stands to gain the most because Austin Eckler kind of has a role carved out and his will grow, certainly without Melvin Gordon. But it's not like Austin Eckler will just become the workhorse Melvin Gordon role. That's not what he's there for. And last year when Justin Jackson had that opportunity, he showed that he could do it. So I think what would actually happen if Melvin Gordon is traded or misses games is you're going to have Justin Jackson up first as the one and the one two punch and it'll pretty much be a committee backfield, but both will be, I think, startable assets because it's a quality office.

[Jason Moore]

Sure, it's a tough call because when Gordon went down last year, Echler was the guy who got the first shot where he. And that first one, he touched the ball 18 times. It was a, it was a real stinker because he, on those touches he produced about 43 yards. But then once again he was 15 carries, two receptions. So I, I still have to lean that. Echler would be. Would give or would be given the first shot, but it will be a full time share with Justin.

[Mike Wright]

There are some very big Echler fans out there in the world. I'll tell you that. That believe he could be a lot more than the opportunity he's been given so far. Let's talk about the Denver Broncos.

[Jason Moore]

Hooray.

[Mike Wright]

Are we done? All right.

[Jason Moore]

There's plenty to talk about.

[Mike Wright]

No, look, I think that there are. There are a number of topics. I want to talk about Emmanuel Sanders. I want to talk about Lindsey and Freeman. Last year The Broncos were 6 and 10. Last year the offense had trouble and there were problems. Lindsey was the bright spot for fantasy owners because he was a superstar.

[Jason Moore]

Emmanuel Sanders was a very bright spot before the injury as well.

[Mike Wright]

Yep. But I mean, Case Keenum is gone. Joe Flacco. Hello. Welcome. Welcome in.

[Jason Moore]

With his beard. Have you seen him with the beard?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Mike Wright]

It's that mile high air. You need to protect your, your, your, your face, neck and your face.

[Jason Moore]

There's a lot of neck beard going on. Have he almost.

[Mike Wright]

I saw it. Yeah. Oh yeah. He see it, Jay?

[Andy Holloway]

I haven't seen it, but I know.

[Mike Wright]

That he is a hairy picture of wildebeest.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Drew Locke was drafted in the third round. It's worth just bringing second. Third round it was. I believe so. I believe he's a third round pick. Either way, I'm bringing him up because if things went south for the Broncos, it's a tough division. The Chargers and Chiefs are and you know, the Raiders have improved. I don't know how committed you stay to Joe Flacco if the team is second round. Haha, you're right.

[Andy Holloway]

That's on me.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you can blame Brooks.

[Jason Moore]

Brooks, pack your things.

[Mike Wright]

You fire all of all the things you've ever done, good, bad, getting Drew.

[Jason Moore]

Locke's round one off, it's not just getting it wrong. It's disparaging Mr. Locke himself. Unbelievable. You will never be forgiven.

[Mike Wright]

Well, there you go. Brooks has been fired. Borland, shift over one chair, please.

[Jason Moore]

Having said that, we have a job opening. Please send your resumes to Brooks.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not leaving. Okay, well, right. You need to go through these resumes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's right. We need somebody to hire. But I don't, you know, this is a different team. I think that the Broncos, the Dolphins, there are a handful of teams where you look at them and you just. Because we don't have something jumping out at us as fantasy owners as the, you know, a high end option, sometimes we can devalue the players on these teams and they're maybe not even the Giants. Right. Odell's gone. Eli Manning, oh, nobody likes Eli Manning. But there are, there's value to be had on these teams and I think that that is going to come out here in Denver as well. If there's one thing that Joe Flacco tends to do is they're going to let him throw the ball down the field. Cortland Sutton is a big man. Emmanuel Sanders, I have, I have raised my range. I've got him ahead of Daeshun Hamilton in fantasy production on the season because I'm trusting what my eyes are seeing about his recovery. I've watched interviews with him talk about his recovery. He's, he's gone about as fast as you can go with an Achilles recovery. And this is not straight line videos you're watching. He's running routes, he is moving laterally and he's a very, very good player. And I think a player that is coming back into the fold, I think he's just, he's the best wide receiver they have, like in a pure skill position. He's better than those other two players. I don't have him ahead of Sutton because I think Sutton offers more touchdown upside than Emmanuel Sanders does. But kind of digging through the muck here. Are you going to find somebody you're happy with at all with Joe Flacco throwing him the ball, or is this a bunch of wasted breath? Because we shouldn't even be talking about wide receivers?

[Andy Holloway]

In Denver, certainly someone could emerge. I mean, I remember the days where Joe Flacco threw it deep as well. Those, those were neat.

[Jason Moore]

The Steve Smith years were awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. But it's been a long time. And the question is, was that because of his weapons or is that because now he is much more of a dink, a dunk passer?

[Mike Wright]

John Brown.

[Andy Holloway]

I lean that direction, I lean that, you know, which means Daeshun or Emmanuel. I'm not as bullish as you, Andy. On. You know, I've seen the same videos, but you see those with everyone, you know, you see them running against air, not in pads, looking sharp, looking great. And I think that there's another world to get to when it comes to being on the field, in contact, all of that. And so I leaned Daeshon for the short stuff. But if you want to throw your pick out for who has the best chance to really emerge as a relevant, a very, very good fantasy option, I think it's got to be Cortland Sutton because if someone comes through, you want a red zone option. He's the big bodied guy. He looked great in spurts. He disappeared in spurts. But a lot of what's being said around Denver is that it looks like he's ready to step up into that number one role. He himself assumes he is going to be the number one option. And if that's the case, if he's stepping up to be, you know, the new Demarius Thomas, hopefully someday they get the new Peyton Manning.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, I have a. My problem with Sutton is that I wanted him to do that. I mean, all these same refrains were there for the second half of the season. It was time for Sutton to step up and be the next demarius Thomas. It still is rookie season, sure, but it was disappointing. Was there anybody happy with. I mean, he was.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Mike Wright]

People were swarming to pick up Cortland Sutton for his opportunity and that was without Emanuel Sanders. And so if this is going to be an offense predicated on running the ball and having a rejuvenated defense, I don't. I want him to succeed. I want him to be great. I don't know if the volume is going to be there for him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's fair. Do you have any interest at all in Noah Fant? You have first round draft pedigree for tight end. It still is. Rookie tight end. I don't, but I mean, what we have seen before is Joe Flacco. Hyper target, his tight ends. And now he does a very athletically Gifted one.

[Mike Wright]

I don't doubt that he will have four games this year where you like, man, he should be picked up on the next week's waiver wire. I'm just worried about the weeks in between them.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I stand there as well. I don't think this is a great offense as a whole. I'm not super waiting to get my piece of it, and when I get my piece, it's not going to be for the rookie tight end.

[Mike Wright]

I think that the Denver Broncos will be surprisingly better this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I mean, look, Vegas is. Vegas is with you when it comes to, you know, you brought them up in the same breath as the Dolphins. Right. Who are like 300 to 1 because we're not sure what's going on. But they put them kind of in the category of Tennessee and Carolina that that level of odds to win.

[Mike Wright]

I think they could be a 9 and 17 this year going up from 6 to 10. So just my. But Philip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, that's where.

[Jason Moore]

I was going to go.

[Mike Wright]

Are you afraid to click the draft button? Are you afraid to take Philip Lindsay at his price point right now? We've talked so much about him. He said literally, I think it was yesterday, he will be 100%. Yeah, he said he's going to be 100% for the start of camp at the wrist.

[Jason Moore]

He has said he feels 100%, but it's also up to the trainers.

[Mike Wright]

And not a leg injury, though. I mean. Right. Similar things with David Johnson coming back.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Obviously a significant injury. Would you rather draft Royce Freeman at his current average draft position of 804 or Philip Lindsay at what is now being shown at 408? He's dropped a lot.

[Jason Moore]

If I have to take one of them, I'll still take Lindsey there.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Now that Lindsay's fallen almost fifth round. I would take Lindsey.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I would, too. That's what it's been Freeman all offseason. But when you talk about 408. I think I'm in now. I think I'm back in.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he started.

[Mike Wright]

Let's move that back up.

[Andy Holloway]

Up in the third. Like high third. And can I.

[Jason Moore]

Let's move his ADP up.

[Mike Wright]

What show was it that we just talked about it. No, I know, but which one was it? Like two weeks. I'm trying to figure out what's killing this adp. That was Saturday show, I believe.

[Andy Holloway]

Was it?

[Mike Wright]

I think so, yeah. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe it's not me.

[Mike Wright]

San Fran live show.

[Jason Moore]

I'm so sorry.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Any other storylines from Denver? Are we moving on, moving on. All right, it's hard knocks time. The Raiders 4 and 12, wrapping up the AFC West. They'll start at home against Denver and Kansas City this year.

[Jason Moore]

John Gruden & Co. Minnesota and then the Colts. Yeah, that is, that's not, that is not a good looking first four weeks.

[Mike Wright]

Denver, Kansas City at Minnesota, at Indianapolis. On paper, a rejuvenated, revamped, transformed team at the high level. And you guys, we can get into all the players at the highest level. What happened to this team? To me, the biggest problem that this team has was and what made Derek Carr go from MVP candidate to short range, you know, BB gun was the offensive. This was a top five unit that dropped way down, assimilate, fell off a cliff and they couldn't keep Derek Carr on his feet. Carr got skittish. He started preferring the shorter intermediate routes to taking shots downfield because historically he's a good deep passer. But when you barely do it and you're skittish and afraid and not making clutch throws, that's what broke this team down. I don't know how you do better than getting a guy, Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams and Josh Jacobs right to fix that problem. I mean they, you know, Marshawn's gone, you get the more versatile Jacobs in the backfield. Jordy Nelson's gone, you get the younger Tyrell Williams is a deep threat. To me, it's all about the offensive line. Can the offensive line provide enough time for Carr to be an effective passer to bring up the fantasy value of everyone around? What do you guys think?

[Andy Holloway]

Look, I think Antonio Brown being there is going to help the offensive line in a sense. The fact that Carr will have someone to go to. Carr is a super late round guy. That you know how there's those guys who are like, dude, look, there are, there are those guys. You're fine being wrong about where it's like, you know, look, if he's great, this is one where I'm not. I don't think Carr has a great year, but I'm not, I am not super confident in that at all. He's got the weapons both at running back and at wide receiver to put up enough, you know, enough fantasy points. He's got to play Kansas City a couple times, other great offenses. I think Derek Carr could be a surprise late round guy that ends up as a successful fantasy option this year.

[Mike Wright]

They also added Ryan Grant to the offense who was like a free agent pickup last offseason by from more wink wink to the Colts and Then Marcel Aitman flashed last year. J.J. nelson was. In addition, they still have Jalen Richard in the backfield. I think the offense is probably underrated, Mike. I really do.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Like you said, everything looks great on paper. Looks great on paper. But I don't, I just, I don't believe in Derek Carr as a quarterback. I don't think he's that good.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, so what does that translate then? Carry that into Antonio Brown. Not, not, not to Carr cars not being drafted in a position where you have to justify his failing or succeeding. Brown is, I mean Brown is being punished in a lot of rankings because of the transition from Big Ben to the Raiders. Even though he is the guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Though he is the best receiver in football from a skill standpoint.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And I won't, I won't argue with those points. But we've, we've seen great wide receivers many, many times have bad quarterback play behind them. And it's. Carr is not the worst, but I just don't think he can help out Antonio Brown anywhere close to the level that, that you're hoping for. Now his draft price, what's interesting about him. So I'm looking at fantasy football calculator right now. I mean he's sandwiched literally right between juju and Mike Evans. And would you rather have Antonio Brown with Derek Carr as his quarterback or do you want Mike Evans with Jameis Winston?

[Andy Holloway]

So I've gone back and forth on these two guys specifically and then right.

[Jason Moore]

After that is Ty Hilton.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And I do land on the Antonio Brown side. I think that while Antonio Brown is not going to be the number one wide receiver anymore, I've still got him with an astronomical target volume. What won't be there the way it was in Pittsburgh is the touchdown numbers. I mean Antonio Brown has always been a double digit touchdown guy. Last year, what do you have? 15 touchdowns. I mean that's not going to happen. So I think the ceiling might be off a little bit. But I mean the difference between Carr and Jameis Winston in real life is not that much. You forget Carr two years ago he was a top 10 fantasy quarterback, which is crazy to think about when he had the weapons there. So I think Antonio Brown, I'm certainly not taking him over juju, but I would take him over Mike Evans.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, Josh Jacobs, how many passes does he catch this year? What's his fantasy ceiling? How are you looking at Jacobs? Isaiah Cruell went out, got hurt. They had picked him up. Instead they have to replace him with Krampus. Doug Martin is back Again, ah yes, but this is Josh Jacobs backfield.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He should have every opportunity to contribute in both facets. Which means that you know, this is not. Even if you don't believe in the offense, even if you don't believe in the defense, the game script if you think is negative. If you're a pass catching running back like Jacobs is, you should be pretty consistent and pretty relevant. I mean look at Lindsey would be a very. Lindsay's a very interesting comp here because The Broncos were 6 and 10 last year and Lindsay's not somebody that you would look at as a prototypical. Like you know, he's not going to carry it 250 times. We've never seen Jacobs take a workload at Alabama. So. But let's say they go 6 and 10, maybe they're not a good team. Philip Lindsay still had a great year.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Right now I have Josh Jacobs catching about 40 passes, which is. That's not a number but it's. You would be perfectly acceptable. The problem with for Jacobs is just the. You're buying into the idea that he was a first round running back has a pass catching skill set because they have Jalen Richard, he's still on the team. And last year when things, when the game script flipped upside down, it was Jalen Richard just getting absolutely peppered with targets. So do they, do they take that jump and they say okay, we're just going to play Josh Jacobs on all three downs or does he just get worked into some passing plays on first and second down and then Richard is a bigger thorn than you're expecting.

[Andy Holloway]

I think the fact that they used Jalen Richard so much last year and then turned around round and said yeah, we're going to spend a first rounder on a running back and we're going to go get a Isaiah. Carell says what they want and what they want is not Jalen Richard.

[Jason Moore]

Well, yeah, they don't want him to be the grinder, but last year 81 targets 68 receptions for Jalen Richard. Those are real receptions for a running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Right? For sure. But that, that also says Derek Carr is looking to that position. The offense can utilize it. But I don't think it's going to be Richard. I think it's going to be Josh Jacobs. He was, he worried me before the draft because I thought he was going to be drafted as a committee guy. But the combination of him being given a first round draft capital and then having Isaiah Cruell go out to a season ending injury says he's got, he's got the shot of being a true three down back. They'll mix in Rashad, they'll mix in Krampus, but he's going to, he's going to take the lead of this offense from the backfield for sure.

[Mike Wright]

The first round draft capital nearly assures heavy involvement, but you're, you know, it should. They couldn't really throw the ball anywhere other than to Richard last year. So it'll be interesting to see. That is your AFC West. I want to get into the mailbag a little bit. This show, if you've been listening to it, either a short while or a long while, it's all about you, your league, you, the fantasy player. We're trying to get you as much information as possible to make you a better fantasy player year to year, but also enjoy your league more. Enjoy running a league if you're a commissioner. And so we like to get in and answer as many questions as we can here and over at Join the foot. Let's jump into the mailbag.

[Andy Holloway]

Mailbag, mailbag.

[Mike Wright]

All right, you'll like this one. Jason Keith in Albuquerque, New Mexico. We are getting rid of kickers and replacing them with an extra flex position.

[Jason Moore]

Congratulations, Keith.

[Mike Wright]

What do you guys think the ideal bench size should be in order to keep some talent on the waiver wire and to deal with bye week? So if you have a league where you have an extra flex spot. I guess he's wondering how big should the bench be to properly.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

Populate the waiver wire.

[Jason Moore]

So he says he currently has a six bench and they do have the IR spot as well. So I would just keep it at six.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'm 100% fine going to five bench. I think five bench and an IR is great. Six is also fine. I would, I would really. It's a matter of your league. Right. Because I think that the more into it your league is, the, the if you've got 11 other owners that really take this serious, it's one of those home leagues that, you know has been going for six, seven, eight years, everyone's competitive. Then a six bench is great. But if it's where like you've got a handful of people that aren't as into it, then, you know, those more shallow waivers, you know, it's hard for the casual people.

[Mike Wright]

All right, question from Derek in Orange County, California. Do you each have a position you are consistently better at projecting, I. E. Wanting to know whether, like Jason's better at running backs or Mike at wide receiver, etc.

[Andy Holloway]

I think within ourselves, we do not Necessarily, like I'm better at a position than others. But I know when it comes to like rookie scouting, I am better at scouting running backs than quarterbacks. For example, I trust Andy's scouting on quarterbacks better than my scouting on quarterbacks. And I trust my scouting on running backs better than everyone's.

[Mike Wright]

There's a ton of factors. Like in season last year, I just happened to be more accurate when it came to running backs and wideouts than I did quarterbacks and tight ends. So that's a little different than draft scouting, obviously. But from week to week it seemed to favor those positions. Do you remember what you were most accurate on, Mike?

[Jason Moore]

Off the top of my head, I think.

[Mike Wright]

Looks like you were the quarterback whisperer.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And running backs, you did pretty well too.

[Andy Holloway]

I know.

[Jason Moore]

Over the years, running backs usually where I feel strong.

[Andy Holloway]

Over the years though, it does tend to change. I don't think it's a universal truth to answer the question.

[Mike Wright]

Alright, this question comes in from now watch out. Hang on. Comes from the Texas Hitman in Houston.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, wait, is that you, Leatherface?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you know him?

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to the show.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, the Texas Hitman Leather, you guys don't know. Oh, I get scary.

[Jason Moore]

It's a massacre.

[Mike Wright]

I just didn't know if you'd permit more than one Mike.

[Jason Moore]

There's, there's plenty of room. There was, there was many more before me and there will be many more after me.

[Andy Holloway]

There's video games.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All sorts of hitmen out there.

[Mike Wright]

Would you really feel comfortable with mixing as your running back? One is the question and a half point per reception league. My rankings and my brain say yes, I would.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I'm okay with it. I'm not like thrilled.

[Jason Moore]

I would much rather take James Conner, but I would take you.

[Andy Holloway]

You would much rather take James Conner than yes, Joe Mixon?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

I am sorry.

[Mike Wright]

That's official commentary.

[Jason Moore]

No, that's fine. You guys can keep down James Conner all you want. You're wrong.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't have any problem against James Connor, but I would not say. I would definitely rather have James Connor than Joe Mixon.

[Mike Wright]

I would say that.

[Jason Moore]

Go, go.

[Andy Holloway]

Water bat.

[Mike Wright]

Not that, that was, that was just formalizing an open secret here.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

You know that in, in public forums we have disagreed on James Connor.

[Jason Moore]

You're going to be very sad of James Connor's success.

[Mike Wright]

It would be best for you to do your victory lap now while nothing has happened as opposed to later when you're.

[Jason Moore]

I will say we do have some fantasy source friends who have may or may not have talked to Mike Tomlin.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. And Mike Tomlin said that, you know, he can see the future and knows exactly how James Connor's production is going to be.

[Jason Moore]

When other players were named on that team, he said, no James Conner.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. We'll see what happens in this offense.

[Andy Holloway]

This is a informative podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

What other players were being named running backs? Can you name them? Is this Jalen Samuel?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

So I don't think that there's been contentions made on this show by me that James Conner is not their starting running back. That's not the. That's not the pretense by which I argue against James Connor. If you listen to the live show, I argued against James Conner on the basis that he fell off a cliff halfway through the year and he's more of a RB2 than an RB1. That's my only contention. Not that he sucks, if you remember. What I said is, I said, hey, he's more in the RB12 to 15 range. He's not the RB6 you got at the beginning of the year. So I don't have any doubt he is the starter. I do have concerns about the offense absent Antonio Brown. I assume you are not anti Joe Mixon. You're just pro James Conner.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

All right, one last question. Henry in Cincinnati, Ohio. Two quick questions. Oh, you know, I say one last question and then Henry, Henry, a second one.

[Andy Holloway]

Nope.

[Jason Moore]

You only get one Henry.

[Mike Wright]

Henry says it's quick.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

How do you convince your league to use Sleeper instead of Yahoo? And do you think Ertz is being drafted at his. At his ceiling?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he's being drafted at his ceiling to me. And Sleeper is. It's an easy to use Apple. They're very customizable and they're always listening, trying to make the platform better and better.

[Andy Holloway]

And certainly if it happens to be a dynasty or keeper league, something like that, the platform runs in the off season. You can trade picks and things like that that you can't do on some of these other platforms.

[Mike Wright]

Pristine deal of the day. All right, as we wrap it up. Pristine deal of the day. DeAndre Hopkins signed Texas jersey yesterday. Went for 55. 54. 55.54.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

So close to the perfect amount of money.

[Jason Moore]

Whoever won that should be disappointed that they didn't just pony up one.

[Mike Wright]

It's a huge mistake to make it awesome. Yeah, that's a tip. You should have tipped them.

[Jason Moore]

Shame on you.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Pristine. Auction.com use the registration code ballers when you sign up and that'll do it for today's episode of the show. Unless you two gentlemen have anything else you want to add.

[Jason Moore]

I would just add, if you are a winner and you're looking to get some fantasy football hardware in your life, Please check out fantasychamps.com the absolute best in the business. Use that promo code ballers. You're save a little bit of money.

[Mike Wright]

All right, that is it. Follow us on Twitter effballers. Thanks for supporting the show. We'll be back very soon.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on on Twitter @the ffballers.