
Fantasy Football Podcast for July 28th, 2018. We’re LIVE from the Trocadero Theatre in Philadelphia on the Fantasy For The People Tour presented by DRAFT! Andy, Jason, and Mike dive into the biggest fantasy football storylines for the 2018 season. Plus,
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Andy Holloway
Foreign.
Jason Moore
To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Andy Holloway
Welcome.
Jason Moore
Welcome.
Andy Holloway
In Philadelphia. You showed up. You showed up. They heard now. We took a very interesting beginning to this tour. Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Andy, Mike and Jason live in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Now, we went. We went to Minneapolis, and they didn't like you. And we went to Dallas, and they didn't like you either. And so I expect.
Jason Moore
Whoa.
Andy Holloway
I expect you to represent in the mailbag drop better than they did. Is that fair? Can we get a better mailbag drop? So be ready. Be ready for that. We have a great show today. We are going to be getting into the top fantasy storylines for 2018. So it's going to be great. We're going to talk through a ton of stuff on the show. You're going to get smarter. You're going to win again. It's good to be champs, Mike. It's good to be champs. I'm surprised they need seats. I expected them to just be levitating above the crowd.
Mike Wright
Just wish I knew what it felt like.
Andy Holloway
I know. So, no, we're gonna have some fun on the show today. I'm excited, as always. You can follow us on twitter @ the ffballers, the unverified one @ ff.
Mike Wright
Hitman, the man of the people. Thank you.
Andy Holloway
You got that underdog mask on, right?
Mike Wright
Fair enough.
Andy Holloway
And you can follow Jason. Jason ffl. I'm at Andy Holloway. I'm excited. Let's get this thing going.
Mike Wright
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Andy Holloway
Well, quick question, Mike.
Mike Wright
Right. This is usually the part of the show where we do the quick question, but I'm gonna let you in on a little secret. Philadelphia. We're upstairs. We're in the green room.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
In argument.
Andy Holloway
It's very warm.
Mike Wright
An argument breaks out between myself and this character over here.
Jason Moore
Over.
Mike Wright
We're talking about a player, a wide receiver. His name is Josh Gordon.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
And look, the way that Jason is valuing this player is there's. There's really no other way to put it. But it's criminal.
Andy Holloway
Oh, it's criminal.
Mike Wright
It's criminal. It is against the law. And when things are going in a lawful direction, there's only one place I can take him, and that's take him to fantasy court.
Jason Moore
The fantasy court with Judge Giamatti, the plaintiff. Mike. The fantasy hitman Wright is accusing Jason Moore of criminally undervaluing Joshua Gordon with two counts of sedition and defamation of character.
Mike Wright
That's right, your honor. Your honor, I need to Bring something to your attention.
Andy Holloway
This is serious.
Mike Wright
This. This man over here. I want to talk about Josh Gordon and how he just. He doesn't believe. He's not valuing him properly. It's making me mad. And we gotta get. We gotta get a resolution.
Andy Holloway
You need a ruling.
Mike Wright
We need a ruling.
Andy Holloway
We need a verdict.
Mike Wright
We need a verdict. And your honor, before I jump into something, I need to enter some evidence.
Andy Holloway
Oh. Oh, no. Mike is reaching for some evidence. Oh, dear. Other way, Mike. Other way, Mike.
Mike Wright
So I need to enter this into evidence. Exhibit Compelling.
Andy Holloway
Very compelling.
Mike Wright
Look, I've pulled out a picture of Josh Gordon. Exhibit A. Abdominals.
Andy Holloway
Yes, yes, I can see them.
Mike Wright
Exhibit biceps.
Andy Holloway
Whoa.
Mike Wright
Bulging. Bulging biceps. Exhibit C. His chest.
Andy Holloway
So far, so good.
Jason Moore
Exhibit D. Oh, objection. Object. This is a family show, Mike. I object.
Andy Holloway
Sustain. Sustain.
Mike Wright
I was just gonna bring up the deltoids.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
So you have a big picture of Josh Gordon, and that is your compelling statistical evidence.
Mike Wright
I've got more.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Jason Moore
I sure hope so.
Andy Holloway
You're going to see, I'm going to say this candid. Candidly. Jason has been. He's been ready to go.
Jason Moore
Oh. I mean, I. My. My case is just the Jackie Childs.
Mike Wright
Of fantasy I've just started. Here's the deal. Josh Gordon had not played professional football in three years. His first game back, he drops 4 for 85. Pretty good game for fantasy. And who. Who was he playing against? He was playing against Casey Hayward, the number one rated cornerback from Pro Football Focus. And I'm not talking by a small margin. A wide. Wide gap separated Casey Hayward from Jalen Ramsey, A.J.
Jason Moore
Bouillah.
Mike Wright
It doesn't matter who I name because they're all behind Casey Hayward. He was number one. Gordon immediately commanded a 25% target. Target share in his five games. Three of his five games over 20 yards of reception. We're talking about Josh Gordon, my man.
Andy Holloway
What about Landry?
Mike Wright
Thank you, judge. Look, Josh Gordon, he. He had a couple down games, but like I said, he was coming off of the street. He hadn't played in three years. He scored amongst the tops of all wide receivers, Matt Harmon's reception perception in both man and zone coverage. And he did all these. He did all of his damage. With Deshaun Kaiser as his quarterback, he was the wide receiver. 20 in the games that he played. You want to talk about a quarterback? Tyrod Taylor. He's the new signal caller for the Cleveland Browns. In 2015, there was a wide receiver that played for Tyrod Taylor in a shortened year. In 12 games of production, this wide receiver Put up A line of 60 for 1047 yards and nine touchdowns. Seven games of 80 plus yards. A touchdown in seven of 12 games. Of course, we know that that wide receiver was Sammy Watkins. Similar skill set to Josh Gordon. My closing statement for Josh Gordon. He ain't no Zay Jones.
Andy Holloway
Oh, all right. Few are you are.
Jason Moore
Now, let's talk about the truth. Okay, I will grant you that that photograph is very impressive. But let me ask you this.
Andy Holloway
I, I, no, I, no, he's tainting the jury.
Jason Moore
All right, I need to, I need to call a witness to the stand.
Mike Wright
Wait, whoa, whoa, hold on, hold on. Erroneous.
Jason Moore
This witness's name is Mike Wright.
Mike Wright
Oh, I'm here.
Jason Moore
Okay, tell me something. What player would you say has the best biceps in the league?
Mike Wright
Ooh. Best biceps in all the league.
Jason Moore
Best biceps.
Mike Wright
Well, he might be suspended now because his biceps are so good, but that's Bobby Turbin.
Jason Moore
Robert Turbin.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Biceps, bicep, Bob.
Jason Moore
So because he's so physically fit, we should draft him, right? No, he's suspended.
Mike Wright
That's the only reason. I don't want Bob Turban on my team.
Jason Moore
So here's this, here's the act.
Andy Holloway
You call him Bob, too.
Mike Wright
Look, second round pick, I would take him, but he's suspended.
Jason Moore
But he's suspended. Yeah. Here's, here's the reality with Josh Gordon's situation. First of all, he has a rookie quarterback coming in. And you like Baker Mayfield, right?
Mike Wright
Love him.
Jason Moore
You love him. So I went back and I looked at who had some of the best rookie quarterback seasons, right? I'm talking top 10 since 2000 in passing attempts, played all 16 games. Guys like Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, they've been successful quarterbacks. If I took an average of, of their top 10 passing attempts, and I give half the year to Baker Mayfield, and I give the other half to Tyrod Taylor. We don't know who's going to be the quarterback, which is really good for drafting their wide receiver. Right? Like, I don't know who's throwing them the ball. But, but whatever. I want to make a good case for Josh Gordon. So I'm going to go ahead and use. I don't believe you. I'm going to go ahead and use a lie. Tyrod Taylor's career high in passing attempts, along with those other top passing attempts from rookie quarterbacks, I'm going to put those together and you know what you get? You get 493 passing attempts. That is okay, but it's not great. Now let's Think. Okay, well, what's his target share going to be? You said he got 25% of the target share last year. That's an unbelievably great number. Except someone, some smart person out there said, what about Landry? And not just Landry.
Mike Wright
What about him?
Jason Moore
What about David and Joku? What. What about.
Andy Holloway
I don't see any pictures of them.
Jason Moore
Corey Coleman. What about Duke Johnson? Thank you, Duke. Johnson lovers are everywhere. But here's what I'm gonna do, Mike.
Andy Holloway
Keep it up, okay?
Jason Moore
For the people. I'm still gonna give them a great target share. I'm gonna give them 20%, okay? That's what Doug Baldwin got, and he was the clear cut number one.
Andy Holloway
That's what he's doing you so many favors, Mike.
Jason Moore
Oh, I'm. I'm really making your case for you here. The guys that are at 20% are. Are incredibly powerful. Devonte Adams, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin. Those are clear cut ones. Now, I don't think he finishes at 20%. It's probably more like 18%, which would be like Marvin Jones, Stephan Diggs. But I'll give you the 20, and I'm gonna give you the best pass percentage of those guys and give them a 60% completion rate. So. So we've seen the math. I know you. You've stuck with me through this boring math problem.
Mike Wright
Yeah, but. Nerd.
Jason Moore
Nerd. Nerd alert. Do you want to know how many receptions that would be just by math?
Andy Holloway
Just by math. So many other ways to come up with those numbers, but go with the math.
Jason Moore
Okay. It would be 59 total receptions.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Andy Holloway
Did he pick up? Oh, I can't talk. I forgot. I'm not allowed to talk.
Jason Moore
So here's the thing. Last year, if you want a wide receiver under 60 receptions that did well, there was one. His name was Alshon Jeffrey, and he did that on the back of nine touchdowns, which I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Eagles offense slightly better than the Browns off his little score.
Mike Wright
I know what you're doing right now.
Jason Moore
So my point is the ceiling is already capped with Gordon, and that was in a good situation. What happens if things don't go his way?
Andy Holloway
But it's the Browns, they're going to go his way.
Jason Moore
Criminally overvalued right now. And I rest my case.
Andy Holloway
Right. All right. What do we think? He's kept a very stoic face. By the way, the fantasy court rules in favor of Mike Rice. Wow. Give the judge a round of applause.
Mike Wright
We.
Andy Holloway
We've Lost Tayson.
Mike Wright
It's fine. The show's better. Let's move on without him.
Andy Holloway
He didn't even win with. With the pandering. I, you know, that's very difficult, by the way, to sit here and just listen and not contribute and not make the case. But I think I sided with Mike as well.
Jason Moore
That's fine, you guys. Also, at the end, I made this case towards the draft season last year. Same exact thing. I looked at the numbers, the target share about a player we all liked early on, and then I said, no, I'm off of Terrell Prior.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, yeah.
Jason Moore
How did Terrell Prior do last year? Yeah, go ahead. Draft Josh Gordon. Especially if you're in a league with me.
Andy Holloway
All right, Mike, how does it feel to finally be a champion?
Mike Wright
Feels great. It feels great.
Jason Moore
Storylines for 2018.
Mike Wright
Here's a story.
Andy Holloway
Feels good of 2018. All right. Six big storylines. We want to capture what we think will consume fantasy owners for the better portion of 2018. Help answer some of these questions. The big one is better Luck next time. We're talking about the hell. Nope, not Ray Rice. We're talking about the hell.
Mike Wright
Oh.
Andy Holloway
Talking about the health of Andrew Luck.
Mike Wright
No, no, no.
Andy Holloway
All right, so here's the simple question as I knock your mic over. What happens if he's healthy? What happens if Andrew Luck is healthy? What are the implications of a healthy Andrew Luck? All signs point to him throwing real footballs. We met with some Foot Clan members before the show.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
And all the research we've done, all the models we've looked at, we realized that quarterbacks, when they play better for.
Mike Wright
Fantasy, many more points.
Andy Holloway
More points than if they don't. So what happens if he's healthy? What happens if he's a healthy Andrew Luck for this year? What are you looking at?
Mike Wright
So for me, you got to look at the facts of what Andrew Luck has done. And Andrew Luck is great. Andrew Luck has been a sensational fantasy quarterback. But the bigger question for us, for fantasy players, the supporting cast, and here's the actual truth for Andrew Luck and what he has supported. He has supported a top 18 wide receiver or better in. In three or four years. He had a wide receiver one on his team. We're talking Ty Hilton, who gets a huge, huge bump if Andrew Luck happens to play. But that's where it tops out. And that's it. And this is where people get really, really excited about interlucking Colts high scoring offense. Ty Hilton's back. Wide receivers up the wazoo.
Andy Holloway
Ryan Grant has arrived.
Mike Wright
Grant.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
No, But I see it on Twitter. People want to know, is he a flyer?
Mike Wright
But here's the deal. Only once, only one time has Andrew Luck, when he's playing, had a top 20 running back on his team. And that was. That was the infinity stone. Frank Gore was running back 12. The wide receiver 2. Not pretty. His rookie season, he had some good wide receivers, including Reggie Wayne, who at that time had become his wide receiver, too. For Fantasy Wide Receiver 31, you're talking an average finish. The second wide receiver for the Colts when Andrew Luck is playing an average finish, wide receiver 65.
Andy Holloway
That's bad.
Jason Moore
It's.
Mike Wright
It's 10 over where I wanted it to be, but I. But I cannot fudge them. Are we going with it?
Andy Holloway
No, we're not going with it. I just remembered I need to be ready for those moments.
Mike Wright
You certainly do. He's had a top 14 tight end, though, three times. So that's.
Andy Holloway
That's. You hear that? You hear that, Jason?
Mike Wright
Eric E. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. So said.
Jason Moore
Hi.
Andy Holloway
Where's your Hebron picture?
Mike Wright
So that's. That's the truth about Andrew Luck. We automatically assume a prolific quarterback comes back and everyone's going to get better and we can be hopeful.
Andy Holloway
Let me. Let me piggyback, because you brought up the running backs, and I know he hasn't sustained a great running back, but to me, his health means hope for the running game in general. I don't see any hope for them with that and Andrew Luck because the offense can be good enough to get them in a position where maybe it's Jordan Wilkins and he's a steal of your fantasy draft. Or maybe Naim Hines gets involved more than we think.
Jason Moore
Or Bob Turban.
Mike Wright
Oh, he'll be back. Yeah, he'll be back.
Andy Holloway
Or the Mac attack, you know, maybe your guy, he shows up. So the thing is, is you need hope out of that backfield. And if the offense can't move the ball, this is going to be. They're in a competitive division, so they'll be in the basement. And I won't be excited about the running game if Andrew Luck's not healthy.
Jason Moore
The one thing I will say for the Colts this year, because I've been the most anti believing that Andrew Luck.
Andy Holloway
Is so anti believing back.
Jason Moore
You know, I just. I really hesitate. You know, even now he's still saying, I'm sore, but not as sore as I was. And it's like, just. Just be better. It's been two years.
Andy Holloway
He's doing his best But I actually.
Jason Moore
Do think I like drafting the Colts this year. I like, like drafting Luck, Ty Hilton, because all the way up to your draft, people still will have a little bit of uncertainty which will push the price down. And should Andrew Luck not be healthy? And this is kind of my take on the opposite question.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, let's go to that. What happens if he's not healthy?
Jason Moore
What if he's not? They will be better offensively and for fantasy this season than they will than they were last season. I think that the change of coach going to Frank Reich, I mean, how did Frank Reich do for you guys? You are the worst.
Mike Wright
Oh, don't worry, he'll get his hate.
Jason Moore
I will not be pandering to this crowd all night. But my point is they've got a good offensive mind there. And you know, ty Hilton finished 25th last season without Andrew Luck. So I am willing to draft all Colts and I think they're probably going to be a value. And by all Colts, all Colts, I.
Andy Holloway
Mean Marlon Mack, even if he's not healthy.
Jason Moore
Yes, I think there's going to be a value there.
Andy Holloway
It's just trouble.
Mike Wright
They were a value last year too, eh?
Jason Moore
Yeah. Pagano.
Andy Holloway
I think if Andrew Luck's not back, they may be picking first in the NFL draft and they're in too competitive a division with Houston and Jacksonville and Tennessee. I think that it's just trouble across the board and I won't even want to start. Ty Hilton.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
He finished 25th and that was on the back of what, two games?
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
Those were nice games, though. Great games if you can pick them. All right, second storyline I want to talk about. We're going to call it New Kids on the Block. Right? We're talking.
Jason Moore
Oh. Oh, yeah.
Mike Wright
Someone has to know that.
Jason Moore
I know it.
Andy Holloway
That just. You're the old kid on the block now.
Mike Wright
Hey. NKOTB for life.
Andy Holloway
Wow. Scoot back. We're talking about new quarterbacks, so we're talking about the five first round rookie quarterbacks and then the quarterbacks that switch teams. So you had Kirk Cousins, Pat Mahomes is a starter this year. Case Keenum, Alex Smith switched teams. I think that this is one of the bigger storylines of fantasy in 2018. Which quarterback for you makes the biggest impact on their new team's fantasy prospects? Because that's what we're paying attention to. I don't care if they're going to win or just be better.
Mike Wright
Oh, all right.
Andy Holloway
I don't even think Sam Darnold's in camp yet.
Mike Wright
That was actually that was Sam.
Andy Holloway
That was Sam.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
Sam's up in the balcony.
Mike Wright
Thanks, Sam.
Jason Moore
Thanks for coming out. Nice to meet you.
Andy Holloway
But who makes the biggest difference, fantasy wise?
Mike Wright
I. I'm gonna let the foot gland in on a little.
Andy Holloway
What did I say?
Mike Wright
No, no, this is behind the scenes.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Mike Wright
And I'm gonna pass it right to him because Jason has a quarterback written down here and I can see a little bit of his argument. Except his argument is words, words, words, words.
Jason Moore
Yeah, that's kind of my specialty, Mike.
Mike Wright
I hope he has something.
Andy Holloway
So your notes, Your notes are words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words. Oh, thank you.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Look, my. My quarterback that's making the biggest improvement for their team is Case Keenum. Case Keenum and I, you know, if.
Andy Holloway
You'Ve listened, they're laughing because he didn't. You already won.
Jason Moore
Is a good quarterback, which is a compliment to the fact that you beat him.
Andy Holloway
The. Yeah, that does work in their favor.
Jason Moore
It does work in their favor. He is a good quarterback. When we thought he was a poor quarterback, he was playing for Jeff Fisher. Everyone is a poor quarterback playing for Jeff Fisher. Yeah.
Mike Wright
Even Nick Foles. Am I right?
Jason Moore
Right?
Mike Wright
Am I right? I can do it too.
Jason Moore
So I believe he. I mean, look, in college football history, he is the number one all time leader in yards. He is also the number one all time leader in touchdowns. The guy doesn't suck. But last year, Brock Osweiler, Trevor Simeon, they. They did nothing for the Denver Broncos offense. So I think Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, I even think Cortland Sutton actually might get played towards the end of this season. As well as, you know, the. The Freeman at running back, I, I think that Case Keenum makes a huge difference for Mike.
Andy Holloway
You're on board with that too?
Mike Wright
Yeah, 100%. That's. That's my guy. Because the wide receivers are so good. They got fully bodied this past season and they just. They were not the wide receivers for fantasy that we wanted, that we expect, that we know they can be. Because the quarterback play was insufferable. You saw case Kingdom is 20 points better at 20 point positive in the passer rating. It has to be an upgrade. Meanwhile, some of these others wide receiver or quarterbacks who are starting for new teams, they. They already had an impact. So I mean, they have to keep the status quo. The pressure is on.
Andy Holloway
That's the angle I'm going to take. Because for me, it's actually Kirk Cousins, because the expectations in fantasy are so high for all of the Minneapolis fantasy impact guys. Right? Diggs and Thielen and Cook and Rudolph. And you have so much of an expectation for him to come in and at least provide what Keenum did. Now he might do it. I think Kirk Cousins has put up pretty prolific fantasy numbers, things that guys don't generally do year over year. But he's also got a lot of pressure on his shoulders. It's not often that you have an NFC championship team that has turnover at offensive coordinator, that has turnover at the quarterback position he comes in with. Look, if there's one thing that Cousins has done in his career, it's a. It's the mental mistakes. It's not bearing the pressure. Guys didn't want him in town. He's made some questionable calls. I'll never forget him taking a knee at the end of the first half.
Mike Wright
Instead of spiking the ball, about to.
Jason Moore
Score, take a knee.
Andy Holloway
So I think for, you know, for the relevance of all of the Minnesota players, the pressure's on cousin Shoulders to be what you think he's going to be in fantasy. All right, one more question there. Which rookie quarterback has the highest year one upside?
Mike Wright
I can't.
Andy Holloway
Everybody, every fantasy owner wants to find.
Jason Moore
There's no late diamond. It's a clear cut answer.
Mike Wright
I can't believe both of you are on this wagon.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, we both have Lamar Jackson.
Jason Moore
Yeah, Lamar Jackson is going to be. Look, if we're talking about who has the highest upside, who has the highest upside, it's not who's got the highest percentage of those are all people that draft finishing well, but who has the highest upside, it's Lamar Jackson. We know this. That rushing quarterbacks, they score more fantasy points. I don't like it, but it's true. Here's the thing. Let me ask the crowd because they know this was. This was a local guy who's the best running back to come out of college in years, just drafted. Saquon Barkley is a beast.
Andy Holloway
They don't know how to feel about him anymore. I can feel it.
Jason Moore
It's tough. They've drafted.
Andy Holloway
I can feel it.
Jason Moore
But who had more rushing yards last year, Saquon Barkley or Lamar Jackson, the quarterback?
Andy Holloway
I'm not, I'm not going to go. You're. You're 100. Right. And I'm just going to piggyback on him because what has been established around Lamar Jackson is what excites me so much. They drafted him for a purpose. Joe Flacco has been stunningly bad.
Mike Wright
Yes, he's gained.
Andy Holloway
I think he's made $112 million and he's been dead last in the league in a ton of the more important categories including touchdown to interception ratio. James Urban, quarterback coach for Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, was the quarterback coach for Mike Vick. Knows how to use a player that can run the ball and has the dual threat. You have Greg Roman. He set the blueprint for Colin Kaepernick when he had a monster season. So all the pieces are built around him. I don't have confidence that Joe Flacco is going to hold him off. And if he starts, he will be a fantasy force. He will be a top 10 level guy. So to me, it's Lamar Jackson. Who do you have? Mike?
Mike Wright
He's not going to start. That's the problem. I get it.
Andy Holloway
How sure are you?
Mike Wright
How many games? Give me an over under. Give me an over under. Make it good.
Andy Holloway
Eight games.
Jason Moore
Oh, yeah. Hit it. Hit it. Water bat.
Mike Wright
I'm going Razor Ramon on you over here.
Andy Holloway
It's over eight games.
Mike Wright
Joe Flacco this season.
Andy Holloway
This will be the year.
Mike Wright
It doesn't matter. It doesn't. They were 9 and 7 this past season. They were a shadow away from making the play playoffs. They're not making a quarterback change. For a guy who's counting almost $25 million against the cap this year, he's gonna. He counts 26 or in. In 26 million against the cap this next year. He is the quarterback 100% for this season. As much as I want to see Lamar Jackson, see what he can do, his upside is maybe he plays a couple games because Joe Flacco got hurt. The guy who actually has upside is the number one pick in the draft who will be playing this season with.
Jason Moore
This guy.
Mike Wright
Baker Mayfield. We, we know that there are no rookies who are locked in to start week one. I don't think Baker is going to start week one.
Andy Holloway
Oh my gosh. We're going to make another bet.
Mike Wright
Wait.
Jason Moore
Oh my goodness.
Mike Wright
Okay, hold it. Just, just save it over there. Here's the thing. Jason wanted to talk about rushing quarterbacks. Okay. Baker Mayfield averaged six rushing touchdowns a season when he was the full time starter. He had two seasons over 300 rushing yards. Yeah, that's not Lamar Jackson, but that's Alex Smith. That's Aaron Rodgers. That gives you a huge bump if you're putting up 300 or 400 yards on the ground. Here's the deal with the Cleveland Browns. I took a look at their record over the past two years.
Andy Holloway
I've heard, I've heard rumors you did some counting.
Jason Moore
One in 31. I'm done.
Mike Wright
Here's, here's the opening schedule for the Cleveland Browns, the Steelers, the Saints, Sam Darnold up there. And the jets are going to take them on. The Raiders, the Ravens, the Chargers.
Andy Holloway
Sounds like Tyrod is going to be six and.
Mike Wright
Oh, there is a. Yes. And that's what my point is, is there is a huge chance that they start, that they start 0 and 6. 0 and 5. Baker is coming in against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You, you have heard it here first.
Andy Holloway
So that would be that Baker plays more than eight games. Like Lamar Jackson.
Mike Wright
Lamar Jackson's not playing eight games. Baker's actually going to play.
Andy Holloway
So that, that. Eight games.
Jason Moore
Eight games.
Andy Holloway
Do you believe Baker Mayfield will play eight, start eight games?
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
Oh, waterbed.
Andy Holloway
All right.
Mike Wright
You better bring those, those flips and swim trunks.
Andy Holloway
Oh, because I don't believe it.
Mike Wright
You're taking a bath.
Andy Holloway
All right, so you like Baker. Let's go to this one. The fountain of youth. Let's talk about Saquon Barkley and the power of the rookie running back in fantasy football. That is a storyline that has permeated multiple seasons. Right. 2015, listen to this. Two rookie running backs in the top 10. D.J. gurley, 2016, you had one Zeke, which I know somebody down here loves him, is in love with him. One person. 2017, three rookie running backs inside the top 10. We know rookies are going to exist in that top 10. So there's all this risk and fear in fantasy football of drafting one. It's not been in my mind for years. Saquon's by far the best opportunity to be inside of that top 10. And to me, he is Zeke plus targets.
Jason Moore
Right?
Andy Holloway
That's the, that's the ceiling. Is Zeke plus target. So I think he can be great. I think Saquon is the one you want. And I think that there are going to be others that emerge. Obviously, you have candidates and Royce Freeman, you have candidates elsewhere. What do you think? How good can he be?
Jason Moore
Look, Saquon legitimately could be the number one running back at the end of the year. That's his, that's his ceiling. It's not out of the question. Last season, you look at Shane Vereen and Eli Manning, the second half of last year, he passed to the running back.
Andy Holloway
You're talking about 2006 for a second.
Mike Wright
He passed Vereen to Coleman.
Jason Moore
Yes. More than any other team in the NFL. And now you draft one of the most prolific pass catching running backs. And if you look at the guys who finish number one overall at the position. They aren't just your goal line first and second down backs. They're Le'Veon Bell, catching as much as a wide receiver. David Johnson. Todd Gurley last year finally got to that spot because of pass catching. Nobody should be afraid to draft Ezekiel Elliot or Saquon Bart.
Mike Wright
Nobody. Don't be scared of Zeke either.
Jason Moore
Sure, here's.
Mike Wright
Here's the deal. Pat Schumer in town. Here's his offenses targeting the running back the past three years. 2017, over 100 targets between Cook, McKinnon and Latavius. 2016, 97 targets between McKinnon and Adrian Peterson. In 2015, you know where he was. Come on. Are you serious? Eagles? Come on, guys. Come on. Are you serious? I'm trying to pander and it's failing.
Andy Holloway
Jason's the best.
Mike Wright
Yeah, fair enough. 166 targets between DeMarco Sprouls and Ryan Matthews. They throw to the running back. If you're going to be in the top five at the running back position, you have to catch at least 55 baskets.
Andy Holloway
Thank you, Mike.
Mike Wright
It's probably not 55, but it has.
Andy Holloway
To be close enough. You round up and down to 55. That's the rule of fantasy football. I have no choice but let's. And nobody out here is doubting the value of Saquon Barkley at this point. So give them another rookie running back who has the most support. Surprising fantasy impact.
Mike Wright
Sure. You want me to. I'll just.
Andy Holloway
Are you jumping in, Mike?
Mike Wright
Yeah, I'll jump back in here because I expect big things from a lot of these rookie running backs. So I was trying to look at a guy who maybe we aren't expecting it, so it's going to surprise.
Andy Holloway
That's what surprise means.
Mike Wright
Boo.
Andy Holloway
You kind of got me a little bit.
Mike Wright
Jordan Wilkins. It would be surprising and yet unsurprising at the same time because Marlon Mack is there. I got really bad news.
Andy Holloway
He's not good.
Mike Wright
He's not good at football.
Andy Holloway
You're on my team now.
Mike Wright
I've been on your team. I've been hiding in the shadows.
Andy Holloway
Oh, my goodness.
Mike Wright
I've been using you as a human shield, deflecting all Marlon Mack takes. Can you absorb it?
Jason Moore
I like. I like your take on a good, surprising rookie, but you guys need to go watch the film on Marlon Mack again. He is. He is not a world class great running back, but he is a very good running back and I think he's better.
Mike Wright
So I think Jordan.
Andy Holloway
He's here as well.
Mike Wright
Jordan Wilkins is also A he is a very, very well rounded guy. But here's why it would be surprising. Even if I'm not wanting Marlon Mack on my team, he was a fifth round pick. You have to have something happen. You had Jordan Howard, who's been proven to be an incredible running back, but it took an injury to Jeremy Langford. Jordan Howard couldn't get on the field because of the veteran status of Jeremy Lankford. So Marlon Mack and crew, it's Wilkins is not a week one starter, but he could be that second half waiver waiver wire wonder who carries you into the title.
Andy Holloway
Somebody has to emerge there. And before you get to yours, I want to say I believe in Ronald Jones. I've looked at this and I know that you guys do not believe in Ronald Jones, but here's why I think that he can be a surprising second half Force 1 of the better rookie running backs. I think Tampa stinks. I think Tampa stinks. They're going to start the season, they're going to have to lean on the running game early, which may not even be Ronald Jones early, but he's got quickness, he's got vision, he's got burst, he's got big plays. And this is a team that it's not going to go well for them in the beginning part of this year. There is no reason to spin their wheels on Charles Sims, on Peyton Barber on first and second down. They drafted Ronald Jones for a reason. And I think despite the fact that I generally love running backs on winning teams, the opportunity for Ronald Jones will be there. I like him. He doesn't really have competition. To me, I don't look at Peyton Barber as competition. I like Ronald Jones.
Jason Moore
Yeah. And you know, if you're saying who's going to surprise me the most, it would be someone like Nick Chubb, who we can't forget about. Very highly drafted. Guy was awesome in college. But the truth is, you know, if we're giving advice, the guy that's being drafted, the latest.
Mike Wright
Okay, Jason, Jason, before you say this.
Andy Holloway
You know what happens you every time.
Mike Wright
You say his name, a certain thing happens. And when that audio plays his, his ADP goes up at least two spots.
Andy Holloway
His average draft position is rising. Jason. So I'm not sure you want to do this.
Jason Moore
I don't want to say this. Everyone keeps this quiet. But carry on. Johnson. Oh, I mean, look, it's not even going to be a surprise anymore because you guys listen to us. It's not fair.
Mike Wright
Why you sniffing farts over here?
Jason Moore
Sniffing the farts Look, I just really believe in Carry on Johnson. I will say this. If Carry on Johnson sucks, I'm going down in some flames. It is not going to be a good year for me. I have put a very large flag.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, yeah. They've been a really good running game lately.
Mike Wright
Detroit backfield starting to feel a little.
Jason Moore
I don't feel good about it.
Andy Holloway
All right, you guys are going to like this one. Maybe we'll call it too hot to handle the fourth storyline here, the return of Carson Wentz. We're giving this away tonight, by the way. Giving this away, if you're interested.
Jason Moore
Signed Carson Wentz.
Andy Holloway
The return of Carson Wentz and DeSean Watson last year, the numbers were insane for these guys. So I think this. The storyline for fantasy owners is do you believe it? And how much do you invest in it in fantasy drafts? So I guess I'll start here. Do you believe in the super bowl slump, Jason?
Jason Moore
Okay, so no. What do you. We haven't even answered the question yet.
Andy Holloway
They don't even like the concept of the super bowl slot.
Jason Moore
Let me just tell this crowd a little thing I just did in our Dynasty league yesterday.
Andy Holloway
Oh, my gosh, you're buttering them up.
Jason Moore
You're darn right I am. I traded Aaron Rodgers and Mark Ingram in a second to get Carson Wentz and Jordan Howard because I believe that Carson Wentz is the real deal and he is great. But I've got some bad news.
Andy Holloway
And.
Jason Moore
You'Re not going to want to hear it. We are hoping he's back for week one. We are hoping that Elshon Jeffrey is back. Week one, you lost your offensive coordinator. You lost your quarterback's coach. It's hard to return after the Super Bowl. And so, yeah, there's going to be some regression for the Eagles. Deal with it.
Mike Wright
Don't hurt him.
Jason Moore
Yeah, yeah, deal with that.
Andy Holloway
Counterpoint, counterpoint. I believe that the super bowl slump is real, but not this year. And I'm not just saying it for the crowd. I've said it on Twitter a couple weeks ago. I have the Eagles and Chargers in the super bowl this year and here's why. It's different. To me, Carson Wentz is a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder. He didn't get to finish the season. He got to help carry them there. His leg is fine. It's a well rounded team that is less dependent on one player's super season. Okay, you won the super bowl with Nick Foles. The seasons that we've seen the super bowl slump. Look, Matty Ice had this otherworldly, out of nowhere, monstrous, unrepeatable season. Cam Newton did the same thing. Those teams saw regression. This is an easily winnable division. The Eagles are primed. He's got a chip on his shoulder. I think Carson wins. Now that's not to say he's going to throw a touchdown every other pass the way he did last year.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I'm glad you brought it up because I want to spin this to the fantasy world. And you, you talked about the otherworldly seasons. Matt Ryan, Cam Newton directly after their MVP type seasons.
Andy Holloway
They, they, well, they didn't take a little end of the season off with nacl. That's what they should, sure.
Mike Wright
But both of them had an unsustainable touchdown rate. So how can you talk about them and the regression that we saw happen? This is history.
Andy Holloway
Well, so that's the question. How good are they really for fantasy owners? What is a fair expectation? Jason bought in enough to say he'd rather have Carson Wentz in a dynasty league over the next several years. So how good? What should they expect? Where does he belong and how do Philly fans avoid drafting him in the first round?
Mike Wright
It's a fair question. And here's.
Andy Holloway
They don't. They don't avoid it. They just here's lean in and it works out.
Mike Wright
Here's the situation since the year 2000, quarterbacks with over 100 completions. DeSean Watson had the second highest touchdown percentage season in since the year 2000. Carson Wentz is ninth on that list. You cannot possibly expect that to continue. You have. We've seen three players since the year 2000 with a nine plus touchdown percent year. One of those was Peyton Manning. He regressed from 9.9 down to 6.2. Aaron Rodgers regressed from 9.0 down to 7.1. But here's the question I talked about. Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers who are going into the hall of Fame immediately. Are. Is Carson Wentz immediately going into the hall of Fame after one season? He had one great season and that's for Deshaun Watson and for Carson wentz. Guys in the 7% range or are you showing the socks over there? Maybe throwing me under the bus? Carson Wentz was in the 7% range. They've seen a similar drop of over 2% to their touchdowns. And if Carson Wentz's touchdowns, if they come back down, you're in trouble for fantasy football.
Andy Holloway
Here's the analogy I would use. Whether it's wise or not. If you're a fantasy owner, the truth is, is you need to look at this like you're not trying to. It's a solid marriage. Right. You're not going to draft him and it's not going to be like the days when you were dating last year and he was throwing four touchdowns a game at unsustainable rates. But it's a solid marriage. You're very, very happy with the other person as long as you don't draft him in the first few rounds.
Jason Moore
Yeah. I mean, the best advice we can give Eagles fans if, like real advice is probably don't draft Eagles. Because if you're in a league with people that love Eagles, I mean, you are die hard. You're the most die hard fans there are. They're going to be overvalued.
Andy Holloway
Here's a real question.
Jason Moore
If you take. I want to know if you take one, take Corey Clement because he cost you very little. He's actually a good value.
Andy Holloway
I want to. I wonder if they would ra. Would you rather win your league without Eagles players or lose it with a roster full of Eagles players?
Jason Moore
Win. I heard win.
Andy Holloway
Okay, good, Good. We got the right crowd. They're here to win their league. Is there a danger to over or underestimating Carson and Deshaun Watson?
Mike Wright
Yeah, the touchdown rate, it's coming down for both of them.
Andy Holloway
So only a danger on overvaluing.
Jason Moore
Yes.
Andy Holloway
You don't see danger on undervaluing those guys and just the narrative.
Jason Moore
Right.
Andy Holloway
We just talked about it for 10 minutes. The unsustainable numbers.
Jason Moore
Yeah, it's impossible.
Andy Holloway
Can Carson Wentz be the number one without those numbers?
Jason Moore
No.
Andy Holloway
You don't think so?
Mike Wright
Sorry.
Andy Holloway
All right, let's move on. The good, the bad and the ugly. I'm not. I'm not the last one. I could be the good or the bad, but I'm not the ugly. All right, Backfield battles in 2018.
Jason Moore
I'll take it.
Andy Holloway
Indianapolis, Green Bay, Houston, Tampa. There are a number of teams where we do not know what is happening in the backfield necessarily. That's a major storyline for the 2018 season. Because if a fantasy owner wants to win, they're going to have to navigate those. They can't just avoid them. It can't just be hands off. I don't think about it ever again. So what backfield battle to you is the most important for fantasy football owners? Well, what backfield?
Jason Moore
It's. For me, it's definitely Green Bay. I think that the Green Bay backfield has for a long time been valuable. But if you only look at the end of season rankings you can have a false narrative that the Green Bay running back doesn't do a great job because there's been a lot of injuries there other than the two seasons with Eddie Lacey where he, you know, was great. But if you look at last season and you see that. So Ty Montgomery starts, he's on fire. He's a top five back. He's great those first three weeks later when he comes back, if you didn't remember had a top 10 week in those two games that he played Jamal Williams, he had a stretch where it was like, okay, Tyler Montgomery got injured, you're up. And then, oh, Aaron Jones had a stretch. But between those three guys, between those three guys, there were eight top 12 running back finishes in Green Bay. That's great for, for a frame of reference here. LaShawn McCoy, he had seven. Kareem Hunt only had seven. Leonard Fournette only had six top 12 finishes. Green Bay is going to be a super valuable backfield.
Andy Holloway
It's just, you follow the offense and that's what I lean Green Bay as well. Just because you want the most valuable offense for somebody to emerge out of.
Mike Wright
Agreed.
Andy Holloway
You're on the Green Bay train. Okay, so next question. Which one? Which backfield will keep you frustrated all season long?
Mike Wright
Green Bay.
Andy Holloway
Did you answer? Green Bay as well? Both of them.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Because the most important and the most.
Mike Wright
Frustrating because the best running back on the team is suspended for two weeks to start the season. Aaron Jones. That's going to lead to time Montgomery getting an opportunity. But we. His body just cannot hold up to being a running back. No matter how much they want him to be a running back or no matter how much he wants to be a running back. It's. He's going to break down and then they'll probably give Jamal Williams another shot because Aaron Jones screwed up, did stupid stuff off the field and eventually Aaron Jones will come in and be the best running back on the team.
Jason Moore
Yeah, for me, I'm picking the Oakland Raiders. I think it's going to be super frustrating all year because I, I follow bad coaches. Like when I look at, when I look at the pass and I say, I'm so confused. So here, when I look, when I look at frustrating backfields that aren't because.
Andy Holloway
Of injury, why do you follow them?
Jason Moore
When. What for this question. I'm saying when you want to look at who's. Who's going to be a frustrating guy to own, it's always because there's the dumb freaking coach that is a curmudgeony old monster and won't look at analytics and won't get the right guy.
Andy Holloway
And that is what you really think. My goodness.
Jason Moore
And that's Greg Olson and the offensive coordinator for the Raiders. So look, if they give Marshawn lynch the ball 250 times, they're going to be happy. It's not going to happen. Doug Martins going to be involved. Jalen Rashard might be involved. I mean, it's just, it's going to be frustrating.
Andy Holloway
Okay. All right. I, I, my inference that I got out of that. I didn't know you were going Greg Olson. I thought you were going Jon Gruden. And while I know the belief amongst all of us isn't there for Jon Gruden, he's traditionally thought I was a good coach.
Jason Moore
He could. Jon Gruden could absolutely be a great coach. We, we haven't seen it in a long time, but Greg Olson cannot.
Andy Holloway
Okay. He spells his name too incorrectly, apparently. I, it's funny, when I thought about what backfield would frustrate me the most, I was surprised at the answer I came up with, and I actually thought it was Carolina. I love it because as a fantasy owner, when you're on the two yard line and you own Christian McCaffrey and you know your odds of him getting the ball over C.J. anderson or Cam Newton or you're the Cam Newton owner or you're the C.J. anderson owner, you just don't know who's going to score week to week. So I think it will be frustrating because you have this happened with Jonathan Stewart a lot of the time when you owned him in that backfield, it was like, okay, this is a Cam game. We're just going to give it to Cam on the goal line. You don't know what the reason is. It's just today you don't get fantasy points.
Mike Wright
And it's not just those variables. I mean, it's. You're playing a full intense game of D and D. You got to roll those dice at first. You got to hit that. Christian McCaffrey's even going to be on the field when they get to the two. Okay, I got it. I'm safe.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
12. Is he going to get the ball? Snake eyes.
Jason Moore
You're out.
Mike Wright
Because Cam Newton runs it in himself. I mean, there, there are so many variables. I know the Christian McCaffrey height.
Andy Holloway
I still have bad Mike Tolbert dreams.
Mike Wright
It's real. It is exploding. We're getting even more hype. Train blowing over. It's rolling through. Oh, is it coming?
Andy Holloway
It's I wonder how loud that is.
Mike Wright
It's coming down. The track for Christian McCaffrey and CJ Anderson is going to make a lot of people sad because no one in fantasy wants to believe in Anderson, and he's coming with dubbed fingers for all the Christian McCaffrey owners.
Andy Holloway
All right, so which of those backfield battles produces or has the highest chance to give you a top 10 running back?
Mike Wright
I'll hold my answer because it's gross.
Jason Moore
You know, I. I agree.
Andy Holloway
Oh, no, it is gross.
Mike Wright
It is.
Andy Holloway
Looked at it.
Mike Wright
Here's.
Jason Moore
Here's the truth. It is gross. But I am changing mine to yours as well, and here's why. I can kind of make a little bit of the case. So I'll just lead with the gross. While Green Bay, I think, is the most powerful, your argument of it could still be messy there. So the highest percentage of Getting a top 10 running back has to be from a guy who gets the workload by himself. And if Deont Foreman starts on the pup, Lamar Miller, he's got. He's going to get the work. And here's the thing. He was a top 12 running back when DeShawn Watson was playing. You saw it last year.
Andy Holloway
I have some of his highlights. Do you want me to play them?
Jason Moore
He's only 26 years old.
Andy Holloway
I can actually give you. You want some highlights?
Mike Wright
Yeah, he's running down the field. Oh, he's running to the offensive line.
Andy Holloway
That's a top ten quarter running back. You know, the reality is it's annoying to concede Lamar Miller's opportunity. I just don't want to do it. I feel like it's not fair. And I would say Green Bay, because I believe Aaron Jones has the ability to be that if he gets enough of the workload.
Mike Wright
And I don't. I don't want my. My talk here of Green Bay, of them, me believing they'll be frustrating. You still have to take the shot. You have to draft one of these guys later on. Get. Get some.
Andy Holloway
If you're making me draft Lamar Miller, I get to draft Green Bay running back.
Mike Wright
So that's the. That's the concession. You got to get Lamar Miller and then one of the Green Bay. And then you just feel really, really gross about your entire roster. Fantastic.
Andy Holloway
All right, we have the final storyline I want to talk about on today's show, which will be right after that, we'll do the mailbag. All right, so be ready. We'll get Brandon up here. We'll answer some questions live. Mailbag. This will be the show that releases on Saturday, by the way. So the Philly show is the Saturday show. Here's the final point. We'll call it. It's hard to say goodbye. Okay? Fantasy contributors. Their careers are coming to an end. Sunsetting. Sunsetting. Players. Players that you know. It's time to say goodbye. Last year. It happens every year. Eric Decker. Farewell.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Brandon Marshall. Aurovoir, Jeremy Macklin.
Mike Wright
What language do you got lined up?
Andy Holloway
That's all I know. So there were several last year. DeMarco, Murray.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Goodbye.
Andy Holloway
Anybody draft him?
Mike Wright
Goodbye.
Andy Holloway
So who's the guy this year that. It's time to say goodbye? Mike. It's time to say farewell.
Mike Wright
We got to start with me, Okay? I need a temperature check because the guy who we're saying Goodbye to is LeGarrett Blunt. Do we still like him here? All right, we're good. We're good. I'm safe.
Andy Holloway
Totally indifferent.
Mike Wright
LeGarrett Blunt. Philadelphia, they did it right with LeGarrett Blunt. He was fantastic for your team, but you knew that you had to move on. He's going to be turning third. 32. A running back turning 32. He's moved over to Detroit. And how did they reward him for his new contract?
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Super bowl champion.
Mike Wright
They traded up in the second round for his replacement, whose ADP is about to go up. Another two.
Andy Holloway
He's now in the third round. Jay, I'm sorry.
Jason Moore
See, we got to stop hitting that drop.
Mike Wright
But legarit Bl, we loved you, but enjoy.
Andy Holloway
It's time to say goodbye.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Mike Wright
You've got to ride off into the sunset. You're a hero.
Andy Holloway
So by extension, you do like Kerryon Johnson.
Mike Wright
Oh, of course I like Kerryon Johnson.
Andy Holloway
I thought about some different players. I would so love to say Lamar Miller in this segment. I wish he didn't have such an opportunity. I'm actually going to say I'm going to pick a player that is going to Baltimore to die. I know you don't like it. It's Michael Crabtree. We love him. Yeah, we all love Michael Crabtree. When did that happen? Did you own him last year? Then you should not like him.
Mike Wright
What, do they love him? He put up zero against him.
Andy Holloway
That's true. He's entering his ninth season. He saw a major decline last year. 44 fewer targets, 31 fewer reception, 400 fewer yards. The only glimmer of hope was his touchdown totals. And then he shipped out of town for Jordy Nelson, who, by the way, might be mentioned in a second. His catch percentage was down. His Yards per reception was down. He was seventh in drops in the NFL. There are enough metrics to make me say, boy, I really hope he goes and pairs up with Joe Flacco. That's going to get his career on track. Worked for Jeremy Macklin, but I thought.
Mike Wright
It was lamar Jackson playing 16 games.
Jason Moore
Oh, eight.
Andy Holloway
Eight games.
Mike Wright
Eight.
Andy Holloway
And he's going to run. So I think it's Michael. I think Michael Crabtree. You won't be talking about him as a draftable asset next year.
Jason Moore
Yeah, look, one of the reasons that I can get behind that is we've, We've discussed this on the show before. You know, when free agent wide receivers change teams, that there's no guarantee they're going to do. Poor Alshon. Jeffrey was great last year.
Andy Holloway
Say that's the exception, not the rule.
Jason Moore
But usually, you know, there's. There's a bump there, there's a hurdle. Terrell Prior obviously sucked. Pierre Garcon, I mean, he got injured. Jeremy Macklin, Eric Decker switched teams last year.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, they're all trying to grab onto another couple paychecks, and they don't have it anymore.
Jason Moore
And so we saw Jordy Nelson last year in his age 32 season, lose a Hall of Fame quarterback and he was worthless. I mean, he didn't even get 10 yards of reception. He is now 33. Changing teams, getting Derek Carr.
Andy Holloway
You know what the truth is? Here's the truth. If Devonte Adams wasn't so good during the time that Rodgers was out, I don't know if we doubt Jordy Nelson. We just say, oh, man, nobody could throw the football. But Adam sustained production where Jordy disappeared.
Jason Moore
And Jordy had 88 targets. He didn't do much with those targets, so I think he's lost a step.
Andy Holloway
All right, it is time for our live mailbag.
Jason Moore
Warm up them pipes.
Andy Holloway
Warm your pipes up. We're going to invite Brandon Marion Lee back up here. We're going to grab her a mic and a seat. We're going to do a live mailbag. If you are one of the people selected to ask a question, there is a microphone right up here. So if you have the special bracelet, come up and get in the line. She will unravel the microphone and come sit with us. And so are you ready to deliver?
Mike Wright
Oh, I mean, there we go.
Andy Holloway
Well, I told him if they have a question to get up, so. But we can all stand up. You guys ready? You have to beat Minneapolis and Dallas.
Mike Wright
That's a fair point. Dallas brought it.
Andy Holloway
Fair point. Here we go.
Jason Moore
Mailbag.
Andy Holloway
It's pretty good. Someone spit on me. I got a little bit on the, on the face.
Mike Wright
I lost a couple beard hairs.
Jason Moore
New York is on notice.
Andy Holloway
Welcome, welcome up here, Brandon. Let's go. First question. Let's hit it.
Mike Wright
A sailor. Oh, gentleman.
Andy Holloway
Oh, do we need to turn it on? Do we need some assistance in the front? Try it again.
Mike Wright
Just try and talk. Oh, I can. Are you whispering?
Jason Moore
Are you whispering?
Andy Holloway
Talk very loudly.
Mike Wright
All right, we're having technical difficulties.
Andy Holloway
We'll repeat that one while we figure it out. So what's your question?
Jason Moore
So thanks. First of all, thanks for coming out to Philadelphia, home of the super bowl champions.
Andy Holloway
You got it.
Jason Moore
And so Captain Sink here, I want.
Andy Holloway
To thank you guys.
Jason Moore
Guys, good to see you guys.
Andy Holloway
Long time folk clan member.
Jason Moore
All right, so here we go. We got a little bit of a.
Mike Wright
Sophomore question for you.
Jason Moore
We've got. This year, we've got five, total of five RBs going in the first and second round with ADP. And what we're looking for here is super Camario, hunt, Fournette Cook, McCaffrey. Which one of these things you guys think this is Fool's gold?
Andy Holloway
Which one of these guys should the.
Mike Wright
Captain not sell sail with this year?
Andy Holloway
Give me the five. Give me the five names again.
Jason Moore
All right, so we got Camario.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, right.
Jason Moore
We got Hunt. We got Fournette Cook and McCaffrey.
Mike Wright
Well, I kind of already answered the question when Christian McCaffrey was brought up, but he's the one who, out of that list I am the most concerned about, skeptical about the targets are going to be there. But he was not consistent this past year. His, his splits when Greg Olson actually played were.
Andy Holloway
Were poor.
Mike Wright
Now it's very, very small sample size. Was that because he was a rookie finding his way, or is that because Cam Newton loves Greg Olson and he soaks up targets when he, when he plays? So Christian McCaffrey is the guy I'm, I'm out on.
Andy Holloway
These questions are always difficult because they're being drafted there for a reason. And yet you know from history that one or two guys are not worth sailing with through the whole season. So you have to pick somebody for a reason. I still throw Dalvin Cook out there because I, I don't know that the workload for Dalvin Cook will sustain the expectations. Maybe Latavius Murray is more involved simply to keep Dalvin Cook fresh. What do you guys think?
Mike Wright
Go ahead, Brandon.
D
I agree with you about Christian McCaffrey. C.J. anderson was one of only a handful of running backs that had over 1,000 rushing yards last year, and it was probably one of the quietest thousand Russian, very quiet of all time.
Andy Holloway
So quiet. They said goodbye.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
D
They were like, bye. But I think, I think there's a possibility he does it again. So there's just no floor for Christian McCaffrey if he doesn't have any rushing yards as a running back. He still is a running back. Right?
Jason Moore
Yeah. I want to answer someone other than Christian McCaffrey, because everybody's saying Christian McCaffrey, but I have to just answer what I believe is the truth, which is Christian McCaffrey. I, I mean, I, I believe in North Turner as a. I believe in his history, his long history of using a bell.
Andy Holloway
So long.
Jason Moore
I mean, he's always. And until the injury to Adrian Peterson, he's given someone all the work. But I also don't like when running backs gain weight when they put it on and slow down. And, you know, that's the big news around Carolina is like, oh, he's bulking up and I'm here and oh, he's slowing down.
Mike Wright
Right?
Jason Moore
That's not good. All right. All right.
Andy Holloway
Does Jay Grizz agree?
Mike Wright
Jordan Howard, first round pick.
Jason Moore
Next question.
Andy Holloway
Thank you for your question, captain. Hey, everyone.
Mike Wright
My name is Dave. Hey. David Moore.
Jason Moore
So nice to meet you.
Andy Holloway
Nice to meet you as well, everybody. So my question is, have we tilted a little bit too far on.
Mike Wright
On wide receivers based on the poor performance last year, similar to the way.
Andy Holloway
The community did with running backs a couple years ago?
Jason Moore
Yes and no.
Andy Holloway
Always the question was, have we swung the pendulum too far on wide receivers?
Jason Moore
I mean, I, when I say yes and no, the reason I say that is because, yes, we are, we are not giving wide receivers their due. They will absolutely bounce back. They will score more.
Andy Holloway
But no, they've had a meeting and they've decided, well, the NFL is going.
Jason Moore
I mean, it's, it's a passing league now. They want more points. And so it's going to come back to the wide receivers. The problem is, did you, Brandon, did you get to see this picture of Josh Gordon?
Mike Wright
We've all seen it.
Jason Moore
Yeah. But the, the truth is, because of that trend, if you go in a draft and you're not going full zero, you know, running back where, where you're planning on just taking pass catching running backs at the end, you're going to be in trouble because everyone is going so running back heavy right now. If you want a good running back, and I do, then you have, you have to. You know, usually we zig when people zag but when I try to do that in this year and mock drafts, I just end up with really crappy running backs. I don't like it.
Mike Wright
Go ahead, Brandon.
D
I actually have a passionate take on this. You guys probably haven't heard. First of all, last year wasn't about the wide receivers not being good. It was about the quarterbacks all getting injured. Okay, look around the Drew Stanton's of the world, desean Kaiser's that were like in and out and all this other stuff. It was a really down year for quarterbacks as well. But we don't notice it because they score a ton of points and who cares, right? And we just switch them out and so no one cares if Aaron Rodgers is still healthy. You know there are major desean Watson, Carson Wentz, all of these people affected wide receivers disproportionately. So it will go up first of all. Second of all, I have zigged when people have zagged. But what I do is I take those Bell Cow rookies, the Royce Freeman's, the Ronald Jones, what I take them a little early, like the fourth or fifth round as opposed to waiting a little bit. And then I also take those pass catchers. But I think you can do it this year. But again, I just think that we have gone too far and not actually cause we don't point out the source of the problem which was quarterback play.
Mike Wright
And I agree. I think that the wide receivers are going to bounce back. The situation for the first round is there are more than a handful of these elite level, at least the perceived level of running back. We all want a top five pick because Gurley, Lev Bell, Zeke, David Johnson and Camara. But then we got Saquon Barkley in there, we got Melvin Gordon in there. Depending on your opinion. You have Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette in there as well. So when I'm at the top of the first round, I still want that elite running back. But I completely agree that people are bailing on the value of guys like Odell Beckham. They're bailing way too soon and forgetting how good they have actually been for fantasy.
Andy Holloway
Good question.
Mike Wright
Thank you, sir.
Jason Moore
Next question.
Mike Wright
Holla Ballas.
Jason Moore
Holla.
Andy Holloway
This is a man in a beer shirt drinking a beer.
Mike Wright
You know it. And Brandon, thank you for joining us this evening.
D
Oh well, thanks for having me.
Mike Wright
So I do have to give half a question, half a humble brag. I was able to flip Kareem Hunt in a keeper league, full point ppr. Kareem Hunt would be in the first round for Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas in the eighth round managed to flip that, but I'm also keeping Kareem Hunt in the ninth. Yes, correct. But am I way too in on. On the Saints, or should I try to flip Michael Thomas into a trade or just sit here and brag about.
Andy Holloway
Have another beer.
Mike Wright
Did you mean Camara? Alvin Kamara? Sorry. Okay, because you said you traded Cream Hunt and you were also keeping. No, no, no, no. I'm keeping Camara and Thomas keeping Camara. Okay, so for.
Andy Holloway
For an 8th and a 9th.
Mike Wright
4 and 8th.
Andy Holloway
And have another beer.
Mike Wright
The story is you're sitting pretty. You're sitting pretty, but congratulations. And. And. No, I. I'm not moving. No, I'm taking that. That. That value is absolutely extreme. I've expressed my deep love for Michael Thomas this year, and you don't have.
Andy Holloway
A poster of him.
Mike Wright
Well, because I ran out of money. You know how much he costs per muscle? It's ridiculous. FedEx is out of control. Other side. Humble brag. Does it help that I'm drafting 102?
Andy Holloway
It does help.
Mike Wright
Congratulations, my friend, and thank you.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, sit pretty.
Mike Wright
I don't think any of us would disagree. You take the value with the Saints?
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Thank you.
Andy Holloway
Right here. What's up? How you doing?
Mike Wright
I want to thank you guys for.
Andy Holloway
My first Foot Clan title. You repping the shirt, too? I like it.
Jason Moore
Dang.
Andy Holloway
Right? So my question is, what's your favorite way to use the UDK during your live draft when you're trying to, you know, sneak it around your friends? I mean, I downsell got the Excel sheets, and I use it that way and use the tiered stuff, but am.
Jason Moore
I doing it right? Sure, yeah. You know, for me, it's funny because there's all the tools in the world, and, you know, you can. There's so many parts of the ultimate draft kit that you can read. Have fun research. But when it comes time for your draft, I love. Like, I. There's something. So I can't get rid of the paper. I can't do it. I want the printable cheat sheet, and I want to be able to look at every player at a glance across all the tiers. And that's the only tool that I basically use on draft day, other than I'll probably have my computer up with some technical tabs open to strength of schedule or other reports that are in there. But. But for the most part, it's one sheet of paper.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I like having the paper. I like having the Sharpie marking off the names, and then I know when I get a little dizzy, that's when I draft a quarterback. So that's. Yeah, no, that's my favorite part too. Thank you for your question.
Mike Wright
Thank you. Have a good one.
Andy Holloway
All right. My lady and gentlemen, thank you so much for coming to Philadelphia.
Mike Wright
Oh, thank you, Mike.
Andy Holloway
What's your name?
Mike Wright
You got to talk in the mic.
Andy Holloway
Jeff from Philadelphia. Hey, Jeff, would your last name be Haynes? It would be. Okay, yes. Yeah, we'll get to that. All right, so my question is about Mr. Devin S. Scrumptious.
Mike Wright
Oh, hold on, hold on, hold on.
Andy Holloway
All right.
Mike Wright
Brandon was not ready for that.
Jason Moore
Great question already.
Andy Holloway
Have a good night.
Mike Wright
What have I gotten myself?
D
I love him.
Andy Holloway
Why? So in looking at your rankings, the Andy and Mike part of me likes his youth and what he was able to show last season. But the slightly more disturbing Jason part of me sees all of these new and returning weapons in Carolina and think he'll get squeezed out. What is your confidence level in Mr. Scrumptious? Both for 2018 and as a potential long term asset.
Jason Moore
Just so you know, just so you know, Brandon, that's Devin Funches, that is Devane.
D
I gathered, I gathered. Yes, thank you.
Mike Wright
Go ahead. I think Jason should be the one who has to answer this question.
Jason Moore
I'm actually curious Brandon's thoughts first.
Andy Holloway
So you like Devin.
D
This is interesting. This comes down to a concept that I have and we all should have. At a certain point, everyone is value. Even if you don't like the Jason.
Mike Wright
I was going to say even Kelvin. Kelvin Benjamin.
D
Yes, yes.
Mike Wright
Are you sure?
D
I listen, if you're in an industry draft, I don't think this will happen in normal people drafts, but in. I was in an industry draft. No, I mean this because people try to be cute in industry drafts. They're oftentimes, you guys have seen them, they're useless. Right. The first quarterback goes off in the eighth round and you're like, that's not real life. That just is weird. So my thing is I was in a draft where he went in the 20th round and I was like, okay. You know, and I think that Devin Funches is slipping like that. I think there's a possibility that he's going to be in the double digit rounds. And at that point, the upside is what if Greg olson never is 100%. I'm not saying I hope that I don't, but if that happens, what if.
Andy Holloway
DJ Moore takes a while, which I.
D
Think is very possible. And Christian McCaffrey, he's the guy. But if he's Only on the field half the time because C.J. anderson's on the field half the time. Well, whoops, there's Devin Funches. So if he's a double digit guy, I think the upside is there. But if I have to take him in the seventh, nope, it's very good.
Andy Holloway
For the show if he stays relevant to fantasy.
Mike Wright
We can dance.
Jason Moore
We need that.
Andy Holloway
We need that. Yeah.
Jason Moore
Here, here's my issue with Devin Funches. And you know what drop was that?
Mike Wright
Oh, we going back?
Jason Moore
No, that's a. That's a good point, Andy. Thank you. The thing with Devin. Can't even say the name now. Let's just call him Funches. The problem is that last year was a perfect storm for him. There was no other relevant wide receiver there. You did lose Greg Olson. You had your next best receiving option was a running back.
Andy Holloway
There are wide receiver twos that get forced into wide receiver 1 jobs and that is how I view Finches still good now wide receiver one good.
Jason Moore
Exactly. And I am a big believer in DJ Moore. They drafted him as the first wide receiver taken in the draft. They used their rookie last year, came through to the Rookie in Christian McCaffrey. He is going to use DJ Moore. Greg Olson is as of right now back. So I think that his opportunity, I mean Funches had the best case scenario last year and I think he was somewhere around like wide receiver 22. So. Okay. And so I don't see him having an upgraded year by any means. He's going to take a step backwards from volume, from opportunity, and I think he's out talented now on the field with DJ Moore there.
Andy Holloway
All right, you hang out right here, people. Give it up. Jeff Haynes is the winner of the Carson Wentz helmet.
Mike Wright
Thank you to Pristine Auction for providing the side Carson Wentz helmet. You lucky, lucky man.
Jason Moore
You stay safe in this crowd.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that thing is beautiful. Thank you, Philadelphia, for the incredible live show. Thank you, Brandon. Give it up for Brandon. Thanks to the truck. Thanks to Draft for sponsoring all of these live shows and thank you, Foot Clan, for making it an absolutely amazing night.
Mike Wright
We love you all.
Andy Holloway
We love you all.
Mike Wright
You're listening at home. We will see you on the next podcast.
Jason Moore
Goodbye.
Andy Holloway
Goodbye.
Jason Moore
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.
Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - "Biggest Fantasy Storylines for 2018" – LIVE in Philly
Release Date: July 28, 2018
The Fantasy Footballers' live episode from Philadelphia dives deep into the most pressing fantasy football storylines for the 2018 season. Hosted by Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright, the trio delivers insightful analysis, spirited debates, and actionable advice to help fantasy managers navigate the upcoming season.
Timestamp: [03:01] – [12:10]
The episode kicks off with a heated courtroom-style debate over the fantasy value of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Mike Wright launches an accusation against Jason Moore for "criminally undervaluing" Gordon, citing Gordon's impressive return performance after a three-year absence.
Mike Wright ([03:16]): "Josh Gordon just doesn't believe. He's not valuing him properly. It's making me mad."
Jason Moore ([05:17]): Defends Gordon by highlighting his significant target share and performance against top defenses.
Despite Mike's compelling arguments and humorous "fantasy court" antics, the panel ultimately rules in favor of Mike, suggesting that Gordon's recent surge may not be sustainable without consistent supporting factors.
Key Takeaway: While Josh Gordon showed promise, his long-term reliability remains questionable, making him a risky asset in fantasy drafts.
Timestamp: [13:10] – [18:40]
A significant portion of the discussion centers on Andrew Luck's health and its impact on the Indianapolis Colts' offense and, by extension, fantasy football prospects.
Andy Holloway ([13:32]): "What happens if Andrew Luck is healthy? All signs point to him throwing real footballs."
Mike Wright ([15:01]): Emphasizes that Luck has historically supported only top-tier wide receivers and questions whether this will continue.
Jason Moore takes a nuanced stance, suggesting that while Luck's presence could elevate certain players, the overall offensive depth may not significantly improve fantasy outcomes unless Luck returns to peak form.
Key Takeaway: Andrew Luck's health is pivotal. A healthy Luck could rejuvenate the Colts' offense, but without significant supporting cast improvements, the fantasy impact might be limited.
Timestamp: [18:51] – [28:00]
The panel explores the influx of rookie quarterbacks for the 2018 season, analyzing their potential impacts on fantasy football.
Jason Moore ([20:05]): Highlights Case Keenum as the quarterback with the most substantial positive impact, noting his historical performance metrics.
Andy Holloway ([22:03]): Argues that Kirk Cousins carries significant pressure due to high expectations from a robust Minnesota offensive roster.
Lamar Jackson vs. Baker Mayfield ([23:17] – [28:00]):
Andy Holloway: Strongly advocates for Lamar Jackson's upside, citing his dual-threat capability and supportive coaching staff.
Mike Wright: Expresses skepticism about Jackson's immediate fantasy impact, projecting limited playing time due to Joe Flacco's role.
Jason Moore: Predicts Baker Mayfield will see substantial playing time, offering more reliability in fantasy lineups.
Key Takeaway: While Lamar Jackson presents high upside as a dual-threat quarterback, Baker Mayfield is viewed as a more dependable fantasy option due to expected playing time and immediate role stability.
Timestamp: [28:05] – [34:40]
Rookie running backs are highlighted as a major storyline, with a spotlight on Saquon Barkley’s potential to excel in the 2018 season.
Andy Holloway ([28:10]): Compares Barkley to Ezekiel Elliott, emphasizing Barkley’s combination of rushing prowess and receiving targets.
Jason Moore ([29:02]): Projects Barkley as a possible top-tier running back, noting his comprehensive skill set.
Mike Wright ([30:05]): Discusses the offensive schemes that could maximize Barkley’s value, advocating for drafting him early.
Additionally, the conversation touches on other promising rookies like Ronald Jones and potential dark horses such as Jordan Wilkins.
Key Takeaway: Saquon Barkley stands out as a must-draft rookie running back with the potential to be a top performer, while other rookies like Ronald Jones offer high upside with varying degrees of risk.
Timestamp: [34:40] – [41:37]
Carson Wentz's comeback is dissected, focusing on whether he can replicate his stellar performance from a previous Super Bowl run and avoid a post-championship slump.
Jason Moore ([35:20]): Shares a personal anecdote about trading for Wentz, expressing both optimism and caution.
Andy Holloway ([36:08]): Contrasts the traditional "Super Bowl slump" narrative with Wentz's situation, arguing that his motivation and the team's offensive structure could defy expectations.
Mike Wright ([38:02]): Warns of a potential decline in Wentz's touchdown rate, drawing parallels to legendary QBs like Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers who faced similar drops after exceptional seasons.
Key Takeaway: Carson Wentz presents both opportunities and risks. While his drive and team dynamics could lead to a strong fantasy season, historical precedents suggest caution regarding the sustainability of his breakout performance.
Timestamp: [41:48] – [48:43]
The episode examines competitive backfield situations in teams like Green Bay Packers and Oakland Raiders, and how these dynamics affect fantasy running back selections.
Jason Moore ([42:16]): Points to the Packers' versatile running back trio as a source of valuable fantasy production despite injuries.
Andy Holloway ([43:34]): Emphasizes Green Bay’s offensive potential, highlighting the consistent performance of their running backs when given opportunities.
Mike Wright ([43:43]): Identifies the Oakland Raiders as a particularly frustrating backfield battle due to coaching decisions that limit the effectiveness of their running backs.
Key Takeaway: Understanding backfield competition is crucial. Teams with dynamic and injury-prone running back groups can offer high upside but also pose significant risks, making strategic drafting essential.
Timestamp: [48:43] – [53:38]
The hosts discuss the retirement and decline of veteran players, advising fantasy managers to plan accordingly.
Andy Holloway ([49:35]): Highlights departures like LeGarrett Blount and Michael Crabtree, emphasizing the need to replace aging talent.
Jason Moore ([52:54]): Reflects on the challenges faced by departing veterans when they switch teams, often leading to reduced fantasy value.
Key Takeaway: As veteran players retire or move teams, fantasy managers should proactively identify and draft their replacements to maintain competitive rosters.
Timestamp: [53:38] – [67:08]
Listeners pose questions regarding running back drafts and wide receiver valuations, providing practical scenarios and seeking personalized advice.
Question on Running Back ADP: Brandon asks which first and second-round running back with high ADP (Camaro, Hunt, Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey) might be "Fool's Gold."
Mike Wright ([55:40]): Expresses skepticism about Christian McCaffrey's consistency and target reliability.
Brandon ([56:58]): Highlights the volatility of RB performance based on quarterback play, advocating for cautious drafting.
Jason Moore ([57:41]): Critiques Devin Funches' expected regression due to returning teammates, advising against high draft picks.
Question on Wide Receiver Valuation: Dave questions whether the podcast has overly devalued wide receivers based on last year's performance.
Jason Moore ([59:08]): Agrees partially, reaffirming wide receivers will rebound as the NFL continues to lean into the passing game.
Andy Holloway ([60:48]): Emphasizes the continued importance of wide receivers despite past performance dips.
Key Takeaway: When drafting running backs and wide receivers, managers should balance historical performance with potential regression, focusing on player roles and team dynamics to identify true value picks.
Mike Wright ([03:16]): "It's criminal. It is against the law. And when things are going in a lawful direction, there's only one place I can take him, and that's take him to fantasy court."
Jason Moore ([07:33]): "All right, I need to call a witness to the stand."
Andy Holloway ([13:32]): "What happens if Andrew Luck is healthy? All signs point to him throwing real footballs."
Jason Moore ([28:31]): "I like drafting Luck, Ty Hilton, because all the way up to your draft, people still will have a little bit of uncertainty which will push the price down."
Jason Moore ([35:41]): "I am a big believer in DJ Moore."
The Fantasy Footballers provide a comprehensive examination of the 2018 fantasy landscape, emphasizing the importance of player health, rookies' potential, and strategic drafting to navigate competitive backfields. With engaging debates and expert analysis, the episode equips fantasy managers with the knowledge to make informed decisions and optimize their teams for the upcoming season.
Follow the Fantasy Footballers on Twitter: @theffballers
Join the Fantasy Football Community: jointhefoot.com