Booty-Scootin' Cam Newton + Hold Em' or Fold Em' - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: Booty-Scootin' Cam Newton + Hold Em' or Fold Em'
Release Date: June 30, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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1. Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers kick off their episode with the hosts expressing their excitement for the upcoming fantasy football season. The conversation quickly shifts to discussing current happenings and strategic considerations essential for fantasy managers.

2. News Segment: Cam Newton Joins the Patriots

Jason Moore leads the discussion with breaking news about Cam Newton signing with the New England Patriots:

"[06:15] Jason Moore: The Patriots have signed Cam Newton to an incentive-laden one-year contract. He's back."

The trio analyzes the implications of this move, debating whether Newton will serve as a starter or a backup quarterback to Jared Goff. They delve into Cam's health history and his impact on the Patriots' offense, considering his rushing ability and past MVP performance.

Key Points:

• Contract Details: A minimal one-year deal with significant incentives, reflecting the Patriots' strategic maneuvering without heavily impacting their salary cap.
• Starting Role: Despite Jared Goff being the starting QB, the Patriots' acquisition of Cam Newton suggests an intention to have competitive options, potentially reshaping the team's offensive dynamics.
• Fantasy Implications: Cam Newton’s rushing prowess makes him an intriguing fantasy option, but concerns about his health and the Patriots' offensive scheme remain.

Mike Wright emphasizes the potential benefits:

"[14:43] Mike Wright: Cam Newton is currently a top 12 quarterback for me."

Conversely, Andy Holloway urges caution, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Cam’s health and the Patriots' evolving offense:

"[09:32] Andy Holloway: If he's healthy, he's a starter for the Patriots. If not, there's a chance he'll be off the roster."

3. Hold 'Em or Fold 'Em Segment

In this strategic segment, the hosts evaluate various players based on their average draft positions (ADP), past performances, and projected outcomes for the upcoming season.

a. Lamar Jackson

Jason Moore passionately advocates for Lamar Jackson, highlighting his dual-threat capabilities:

"[18:35] Jason Moore: Lamar Jackson had an incredible season with 3,100 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, and 1,200 rushing yards."

Andy Holloway supports the decision to hold onto Jackson, recognizing his consistent fantasy output:

"[25:39] Andy Holloway: Lamar Jackson is pretty much a lock to be one of the top two quarterbacks."

Mike Wright, however, opts to fold, adhering to traditional late-round quarterback strategies:

"[23:24] Mike Wright: Fold. I'm adhering to the strategy because I believe it is the optimal strategy."

Conclusion:
Two hosts (Jason and Andy) decide to hold Lamar Jackson, valuing his high ceiling and consistent dual-threat fantasy potential. Mike refuses to deviate from conventional strategies, choosing to fold on Jackson despite his standout performance.

b. Cooper Kupp

The discussion shifts to Cooper Kupp, who had a fluctuating performance last season. Jason Moore initially opts to fold him due to inconsistent recent performances:

"[33:11] Jason Moore: Cooper Kupp was on fire early but faded towards the end of the season."

Andy Holloway counters by recognizing Kupp's potential resurgence and consistent target volume:

"[37:59] Andy Holloway: Cooper Kupp has been a top fantasy option or was off the field with injury; he's now back and could thrive."

Mike Wright decides to fold Kupp based on his current ADP ranking:

"[35:14] Mike Wright: He's just outside of my top 20. I still think he'll have a solid fantasy year, but I can't draft him where he is."

Conclusion:
Despite mixed opinions, all hosts lean towards holding Cooper Kupp due to his demonstrated talent and potential for a strong comeback, although Mike remains cautious due to his ADP.

c. A.J. Brown

Jason Moore presents A.J. Brown as a valuable late-round pick, appreciating his versatility and yards after catch:

"[40:08] Jason Moore: A.J. Brown led the league in yards after catch. He's a beast on the field."

Andy Holloway concurs, acknowledging Brown's consistent performance:

"[41:24] Andy Holloway: A.J. Brown was the number two fantasy wide receiver from weeks 10 onwards."

Mike Wright also supports holding Brown, despite some uncertainties:

"[44:52] Mike Wright: I'm holding A.J. Brown considering his strong finish last season."

Conclusion:
All hosts agree to hold A.J. Brown, recognizing his high upside and consistent fantasy production.

d. Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ)

Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about drafting OBJ due to his injury history and inconsistent performances:

"[45:29] Andy Holloway: Odell Beckham Jr. has hurt many fantasy players over the last three years due to injuries."

Jason Moore sides with folding OBJ, referencing his disappointing seasons:

"[50:00] Jason Moore: I'm most certainly a fold on Odell Beckham Jr. at that price."

Mike Wright remains conflicted but eventually opts to fold OBJ, citing his past performance and injury concerns:

"[53:36] Mike Wright: I have him at wide receiver 10, but I'm folding Odell Beckham Jr. due to his inconsistency."

Conclusion:
**All hosts decide to fold Odell Beckham Jr., prioritizing reliability and minimizing injury risks in their draft strategies.

e. Golden Tate

The conversation moves to Golden Tate, evaluating his role with the New York Giants and fantasy viability:

Mike Wright highlights Tate's potential value despite a rocky season:

"[56:16] Mike Wright: Golden Tate had big games with Daniel Jones, averaging 14 points per game in half-point scoring."

Jason Moore remains skeptical, emphasizing the depth and cost concerns:

"[58:58] Jason Moore: Golden Tate is a tough sell due to his inconsistent performance and higher cost."

Andy Holloway acknowledges Tate's potential but questions his overall reliability:

"[59:11] Andy Holloway: Golden Tate had six touchdowns last year but struggled with target consistency."

Conclusion:
Mike Wright and Andy Holloway lean towards holding Golden Tate, recognizing his upside and potential consistency. Jason Moore remains inclined to fold, citing concerns over reliability and cost-effectiveness.

4. Running Backs Discussion

The hosts briefly touch upon running back strategies, mentioning players like Le'Veon Bell, Chris Carson, and James Conner. They debate the value of drafting these backs in relation to wide receivers and quarterbacks, emphasizing the importance of balancing positional value against overall team strategy.

5. Final Takeaways

The episode underscores the complexity of draft strategies in fantasy football, balancing player potential against risks like injuries and inconsistent performances. The hosts advocate for informed decision-making, leveraging data and individual player analyses to optimize team rosters.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore:

  "[18:35] ... Lamar Jackson had an absolutely stunning year... Is it worth it? Is it valuable? Is it the direction you should go?"

• Andy Holloway:

  "[25:39] ... Lamar Jackson is pretty much a lock to be one of those top two quarterbacks."

• Mike Wright:

  "[14:43] ... Cam Newton is currently a top 12 quarterback for me."

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Conclusion:
This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast provides a comprehensive analysis of key fantasy football moves, centering on Cam Newton's Patriots signing and a deep dive into the Hold 'Em or Fold 'Em segment. The hosts offer diverse perspectives, balancing optimism for high-upside players like Lamar Jackson and A.J. Brown with cautionary stances on veterans like Odell Beckham Jr. and Golden Tate. Their strategic insights aim to equip fantasy managers with the knowledge to make informed decisions in their drafts.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foreignasy Footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in the fantasy Footballers. Back with you. Tuesday, June 30th we have a fun show for you today. We have some very exciting news to discuss, to dialogue about, to talk about, figure out.

[Andy Holloway]

You sure do.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I almost went. I thought about it and I'm sure there were, there were some people playing along at home and they did it. I thought about it. It's Newton time. But it just was. There's not enough.

[Andy Holloway]

I was, I was without a doubt hearing it's football time along with the music because I'm just, I'm just ready. But you're right, this is, it's not.

[Mike Wright]

Football time yet, Jason, but this is.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, the real thing.

[Mike Wright]

It's Newton time.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

Whenever you get around 70 days away from something, that's.

[Mike Wright]

That's when it's time.

[Jason Moore]

Jason gets hyped.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's right.

[Jason Moore]

The 70 day mark.

[Andy Holloway]

The 70 day mark is usually the day that I get, you know, peak excitement and it's all downhill from.

[Mike Wright]

To be fair. That's basically like when we go peak Christmas.

[Jason Moore]

I was gonna say that's the Christma.

[Mike Wright]

That's when the tree is up 70 days out.

[Jason Moore]

Or in your case also 70 days after.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

All days before and after. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

You still have not put. Is that right? You have not put your tree away.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, the main one is put away. But there is a Christmas tree.

[Jason Moore]

You have a secondary.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, there's a white Christmas tree in our front room that's been up for, I don't know, years now.

[Andy Holloway]

You're talking about the Fourth of July tree. That's why it's there now.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the Memorial Day tree.

[Andy Holloway]

Right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we got it. Great show for you. We're bringing back the hold em or fold'em segment. We did this last year live in New York City when people could congregate together. And it was legal.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And good. And we hope it becomes that again someday, sooner. Reminder, head to ultimate draft kit.com if you want access to the 2020 Ultimate Draft Kit. Lots of updates and changes based on the news that broke yesterday that we're going to talk about today. You can find us on twitter @the ffballers. Here's a quick question of the day comes from Twitter, from O'Doyle Rule.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Is that meant to be like Matt Rue Ru O'Doyle?

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's just from the Adam sandler, you know, O'Doyle rules.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, but it's spelled R U Y.

[Jason Moore]

L E. We're Just going to let it go. All right, look at, look at the last name.

[Andy Holloway]

Look at the last name of the listener here.

[Jason Moore]

He says, I am interested in joining a dynasty league, but I am afraid of it consuming my life like baseball leagues would. Just how much more time on average do you need to tend to these leagues?

[Andy Holloway]

You're welcome. Let me just say you're welcome if you're worried because we will do a lot of the tending to your league. If you're listening to this show. One of the things that is, I think, really nice and comforting about this show, just, you know, you've got it in your daily listen, we have a good time, we entertain. It takes a lot of the work off your. You let us do the work and you dominate.

[Jason Moore]

That's the subscribe and Thrive plan.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I like the rhythmic rhyming, but yeah, I mean, so that is a part of it. Andy, you can speak to the baseball side, right? Because in a baseball fantasy league that does consume your life every single day. You have to be making transactions and lineups to be fair because the act.

[Mike Wright]

Of watching a baseball game just, it sucks. Sucks your life out.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, you have less games by a lot in football to baseball. You're not managing lineup decisions in the same fashion because you're having to do them day to day and manage starts and things in baseball. The heavy lifting of a dynasty league in football is not that heavy. It really isn't.

[Mike Wright]

Correct.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, there is what Jason said, a level of kind of acclimation to a deeper pool of players. That would be the biggest, I think, learning curve is you just have a much deeper pool of players. So your knowledge of, of, you know, the third or fourth string player on a certain team actually matters. But that's why we talk about them. And you can, you can, you know, follow people on Twitter, you can listen to the show, you can do your own research. And you know, after you do that for a year, you're going to feel pretty comfortable with Dynasty and you're not going to feel like it's a burden. You're going to feel like it's an extra layer of strategy and fun that you're, you know, having.

[Mike Wright]

And you don't have waivers like you do in redraft. Like, you don't have that, okay, I got to get all my bids in. Who's the big pickup? Because it's pretty rare when you have a pickup on a Dynasty waiver wire. Well, like depending on the size of the league. So it's, it's do you want to be really active looking for trades? Like, that's in the off season. That's what it is.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the only pickups that you have are things like when, I don't know, a guy like hold drop Gronkowski for like three years in a useless amount of time just in case he ever returns to the league. But then he get, you know, he drops them like a week before he signs with another team and then like Al Borland ends up signing him and stealing your soul. Yeah, those are the situations.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, the nice thing about a dynasty league is in season it is, it is much less work than your normal redraft league. It's the off season where you get a little bit more time, more fun, because, you know, the NFL draft will matter a little bit more to you, maybe a lot more to you, and then you have your rookie draft. But I find that it pairs really like dynasty pairs really, really well with your redrafted keeper leagues. Because I don't want to have too many leagues. I want to care a lot about my leagues. And I could add another dynasty league or two outside of the startup draft. Then it's, it's much easier to manage those leagues as the years go on.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's jump into some news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

You know what I'm gonna do? I'm gonna lead with this. The NFL with the buried news handed down penalties to the Patriots for their television crew filming the Bengals Browns game in December. 1.1 million and finds a 2021 third round pick that they lost. So they'll only have like three or four that year in compensatory and whatever maneuvers they have. And then they are not allowed to shoot games during the 2020 season in Spygate Part 2.

[Andy Holloway]

And it's irrelevant.

[Jason Moore]

That's irrelevant because the real news is.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yes, he's back.

[Jason Moore]

Cam Newton. The projected destination for Cam Newton. Months and months ago. The hypothetical destination, New England. The Patriots have signed Cam Newton to an incentive laden one year contract. He's back. And, you know, we all have thought about this for the last 24 hours. You know, I've seen analysts out there trying to get the projections out as fast as humanly possible. Let's be clear, this is not a, you know, cut and dry, simple situation. And there are Jared Stidham believers and there was out there that believe he'll be the day one starter. But I've gotten to the point where I'm pretty comfortable projecting Cam Newton as the starter for this team. It's a one year deal. But oh, yes, voice of public opinion.

[Andy Holloway]

They didn't pay him anything. He's on like a minimum contract.

[Jason Moore]

In some ways, that is the knife twist that will be the sweet addition for Bill Belichick. Not only did he get Cam Newton, but he barely paid him. They don't have any money.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

The Patriots are. They don't have any money to make this transaction happen and allegedly made it happen.

[Mike Wright]

Allegedly. Nobody else offered him a contract either. So if you're, if you're Cam at this point, do you just hold out knowing that there's going to be some injuries, things will happen, maybe a starting job opens up and then he goes and hopes he can get that, or do you go to the Patriots for very little money, reset your career possibly. Like if Cam's the starter and he came, has a great year. Cam is the starting quarterback for the Patriots.

[Andy Holloway]

For the Patriots. Or he's going to get paid. Yeah, yeah. I mean, the reality here is, if anything, the fact that he took a one year prove it deal says he believes in his health versus waiting until a team was very desperate. But the reports have come out that this has been in the works for months.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just been waiting on health. And I believe that, I mean, you had Belichick after the draft talk about they didn't go into the draft not planning, you know, planning to not draft a quarterback. That's just the way that draft fell, which kind of says. They were looking at people, which says what they believe about Stidham. And now they've gone out and signed someone. I don't believe that you signed Cam Newton to come in and back up Stidham or to compete and cause that issue. I mean, I don't think that's helpful to Stidham.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and it's, it's a difficult situation because it's the Patriots and their plans. We don't know them. And Stidham is obviously in a better position to be the future of the team if he can deliver on the, the kind of promise that they see in him. But I'm with you. I think that the fact that they probably wanted to draft a quarterback to compete with Stidham to begin with. The fact that this has been discussed as being in works for months tells me that, look, the plain and simple fact is they have a good defense. They were an elite team. They started what, eight. No. Last year. They have an opportunity. They have a window right now. And if Cam's the best opportunity for that, that's what you're going to get. And so let's talk about Cam as they if he's the starter, what the implications are because obviously last year Cam didn't look okay. He was not a good and he was coming off the best passing year of his career where he was a 67% passer. We've seen him have success with big bodied receivers. Kelvin Benjamin comes to mind. So people are Devin Funches. Devin Funches. You look at Nikhil Harry who's a monster physically and you wonder is this a bump up for Nikhil Harry? Knowing that you have a proven former MVP quarterback at 31 years old now the likely start on your team does.

[Andy Holloway]

The cap situation mean that someone like Rex Burkhead gets cut and now Mohammed or Sony Michelle actually has more opportunity on the ground and open lanes because you're not clogging, you know, playing the run because it's Jared Stidham. We are, we are acknowledged Cardinal fans. We play the Patriots this year. I could tell you right now I would much rather play against Jared Stidham than against Cam Newton. And so here's the question that I have that I think is very fun. Who wins more games in 2020? Newton, the Patriots or the Buccaneers? The Patriots. Patriots. Right.

[Mike Wright]

But you could have asked me that with stadium and I still would have said the Patriots.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh no, I would not have.

[Jason Moore]

Tampa Bay is in a very tough division so I think it could be real close. I think both teams could have a lot of success.

[Mike Wright]

I think the thing about it when I say that about Stidham is because I think the Patriots can win games with 10 points.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

They have that ability.

[Jason Moore]

But yeah, I mean that defense second half of the year was not the same as the first. The schedule we know that the defense is good.

[Andy Holloway]

It's probably not as good as it appeared last year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean Jason's point is well made where if you were a fan of a team that wasn't New England and you thought about playing them or you're a Buffalo Bills fan and you thought about that division, you're not smiling.

[Andy Holloway]

With this news and that says who.

[Jason Moore]

The starter is or is likely going to be.

[Mike Wright]

But it can't be what's difficult for when I'm projecting Cam as well and I'm with you guys that like I still think that Stidham has a chance to be the starting quarterback for the Patriots but at this point I'm going to project the player who was a former MVP and is still in peak years of athletic ability for a Quarterback. But projecting him out is very interesting because he, Cam has always been a low volume passer comparatively to yeah.

[Jason Moore]

32 to 3400 yard type.

[Mike Wright]

What the Patriots have where you know, Tom Brady averages what like 580 passing attempts in a, in a full season. What does that look like for Cam? Is, is Cam Oak like is he really better, you know, physically? Because he had that whole. The, the video where he came out and he talked about how beat up he actually was. He admitted how hurt he was and needed the surgery on his foot. Is Cam still going to be able to run the way that we are used to or do we actually. Do we see Newton's passing yards go up, his attempts go up, the rushing attack goes down at least a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

Right now cam is my 20th ranked quarterback. Just to put it out there, that's where his projections ended up for me managing the game. I've got him down for 22 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions lower than career average rushing attempt total of 90.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

For about 388 yards on the ground. So that's where he lines up.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I believe he will still run and I think that Belichick will utilize the skill set of Cam Newton to its maximum degree. So I've got him for 111 rushing attempts. I think he is going to run fewer, much, much fewer passing attempts total as a team. I've got the Patriots down in their total plays ran. I think they're going to be a little bit more. They're going to be slower pace of play with Cam. But yeah, I've got him in four point passing leagues at quarterback 17 so relevant draftable. Certainly has a high upside with what he can do rushing and if favorite.

[Jason Moore]

For comeback player of the year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Top 10 in Vegas odds for MVP.

[Mike Wright]

Candidates which is so insane. That's ridiculous. He, I gave him more passing attempts than he's used to having it. I didn't go up to the Tom Brady area but with the pass I'm over 500 though. I have him over 500 over 500 passing attempts and Cam Newton is currently a top 12 quarterback for me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean you have to acknowledge that being a quarterback one is within the range of outcomes here. Tom Brady was a quarter, was a quarterback one last season. Right. And a lot's been made about how bad this receiving court is. You've got a 35 year old Edelman, Nikhil Harry who didn't do anything, Mohammed Sanu. But if you go back and look at, you know, Cam's MVP Season and, and who he was throwing the ball to. It was straight trash.

[Jason Moore]

And not to, you know, again, I don't know if people are listening and they want us to declare the future. We can't do that. Certainly not with new. Well, Jason can, but that's because you have some magic rocks. Maybe, but I can't declare the future with New England. We're just trying to lay it all out for you. There is still a percentage chance Camp Newton's not on this roster. I mean, there is a chance that he doesn't look himself. We've seen veterans come into New England. The Reggie Waynes, Eric Deckers, those type of guys, they walk in, they walk out. And he's not a financial commit. I mean, they spent $9 million on one game of Antonio Brown last year. They're spending a million dollars on Cam Newton unless he blows the top off of that expectation and they figure it out. So right now, projected as a starter by all three of us.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

Think he will be on day one. He gives him the best chance to win on paper right now, but not, you know, not a guarantee.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's all about the health. Because if he's healthy, I think it is a guarantee he's a starter. If he's not healthy, you're right. There's a percentage chance here that he's not even on the roster. He can't get healthy. They just move on. But with a list, Frank, and it was 100% foot, you listen, everyone was, you know, Cam was talking about this last year. Everyone was worried about the shoulder. Worried about the shoulder. He, he said it had nothing to do with that. It was, ironically, the preseason game when he played against the Patriots where he hurt the foot.

[Jason Moore]

And then some of those throws really look like the shoulder had something to do with it, though.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, yeah, but imagine that you have a foot that you can barely stand on and throw the ball. I mean, you're going to throw it different. You're going to throw it.

[Jason Moore]

Two shoulder procedures in a three year span. One to address the torn rotator cuff in 2017. He did. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

He's scar tissue.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it just, it wasn't. It was an injured player last year. It's not. He's only 31 years old.

[Andy Holloway]

It is usually 12 months to return to peak performance from a list. Frank. The surgery was after week two of the season. So you're going to be coming. When he starts the season. He's going to be near the timeline of peak performance. And Cam has a history of coming off of Injuries. Well, this one makes you think he doesn't, but this was a brand new injury. You remember when he walked away from the truck accident?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

He's Superman for a reason.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he just adds to the excitement for the upcoming year. Another player that, you know, another drop that we can keep hitting. Gotta love it. All right, you guys ready to do some hold and fold them?

[Andy Holloway]

Hold them or fold them?

[Jason Moore]

All right, we're going to play hold them or fold them. We're going to look at a player's average draft position, what they did last year, some of the narrative street out there in the fantasy community, the hype, all of the things heading into 2020, we're going to lay that out and we're going to decide whether we're holding, whether we're going to fold them. Am I going first?

[Andy Holloway]

Yep. Yeah. Okay, you're up.

[Jason Moore]

We haven't talked about him a lot. I mean we, the NFL fan community has talked about him a lot, but we on the show, we haven't. I want to talk about Lamar Jackson.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Last year, obviously, absolutely incredible mind bending type of season. 3100 passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, just six interceptions, the unheard of 1200 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, league winner in every way, shape and form.

[Andy Holloway]

He was good.

[Jason Moore]

I mean just really unstoppable. And fantasy playoff weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

He didn't leave anything off.

[Jason Moore]

No, no.

[Andy Holloway]

Unless you played in Week 17. Championship.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he was majestic. 27 red zone carries, as many as Mark Ingram had last year. That's from the quarterback position. 176 total carries as a quarterback. That'll be like 23rd in carry count among running backs altogether. This was just an absolutely stunning year. And when we talk about chasing that QB one from years prior, we've seen this, we've seen it in different ways and shapes and forms. The Peyton Manning 50 touchdown years, the Brady 50 touchdown years, the Patrick Mahomes MVP season compared to last year and what he does for your fantasy team, people chasing him, he's the early draft pick. Is it worth it? Is it valuable? Is it the direction you should go? Because you have this bona fide guarantee at quarterback. Because if you got what you got from Lamar this year, right, he is 100% worth that draft pick and probably a higher draft pick. His average draft position right now, 22 overall. Yeah. If you knew the second round, if.

[Mike Wright]

You knew you were going to get last year, then yeah, he's, I mean you probably take him in the back of the first. Like he was so consistent and so he Was a buzzsaw of like he would win your whole matchup, just your quarterback. And that, that really doesn't happen very often.

[Jason Moore]

And the big thing with, with Lamar, like you said, I mean he would be a first round pick. And you had years ago when people were taking Mike Vick in the first round because of, you know, that amazing season. So all that being said, hold them, fold them with the draft position with the consideration of mine, I am going to hold him. I am going to hold him.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, and the fantasy community erupts. The late round quarterback strategy that we all adhere to says what are you doing Andy?

[Jason Moore]

And the reason that I'm going to say, because right now you're looking at this 22nd pick in drafts there's a chance you could be that first, the first pick in the draft, you could be taking the Christian McCaffrey and coming back and Lamar Jackson could be one of your next two picks in the end of the second round, at the top of the first round or third round. The reason I think Lamar Jackson is a hold at that position without question is because of the differentiating factors in Lamar Jackson's game. And I went back and I looked at a player that to date, before Lamar Jackson existed, Cam Newton, who supplemented each and every fantasy season with his floor that, that incredible rushing baseline. And Cam was ridiculously consistent with top end finishes. His four 16 game seasons from his rookie year on, he finished third, fourth, third and first. Now that rookie season, I don't know if you remember this, I was looking Up Cam stats, 14 touchdowns on the ground for Cam Newton, which is just silly. You look at what Lamar Jackson did last year, the yardage totals, the carry totals were just on another plane, another stratosphere. What wasn't was the touchdown totals and at the quarterback position it was seven on the ground. It wasn't an outlier in the kind of unpredictable touchdown realm. Do I think that Lamar Jackson is going to run this year as much as he did last year? I do. And I think that that characteristic, those levels, 1200 yards rushing, yep, that breaks the position. This is not waiting for a player to throw another 50 through the air. He had 36 through the air. That probably comes down. If Lamar throws 30 touchdowns next year, 10 interceptions and rushes for 1200 yards and seven touchdowns, he's more than worth that pick to me. So that's why I ended up in the hold because I don't think 22 is insanity for what he offered teams last year. If he was 11th, 12th, 13th pick in the draft, you'd be going, oh my gosh, you're just betting too much of your team on him. But if he's your third pick, I don't know. That's my argument. I knew it would be controversial.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it is.

[Jason Moore]

And maybe I like it.

[Mike Wright]

Not a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so Mike, are you hold or fold on?

[Mike Wright]

Fold.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're fold. You're adhering to the late round.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, I'm adhering to the strategy because I believe it is the optimal strategy. And it's just we've like you're saying we chase the quarterback one and even with Cam. So when Cam was awesome, you know, it's 3, 4, 3. But if you're getting the third quarterback in the third round or the back of the second round, it's a bad deal. That's not enough. That is not a. He doesn't change your situation over the course of the season. He'll. He will give you burst games and win, of course, but over the season it wouldn't be enough for me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you're. What you're saying when you take Lamar Jackson is that he has to finish as the number one quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

The only way that he cannot finish as a number one quarterback and still be good is if it was say the, the number two quarterback. But it's because Pat Mahomes caught fire as well.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

I am actually a hold them here. Oh my good. I am in. This is super rare for me, for Andy, for us as a group to be in on an early quarterback. And I not only see you shaking your head, Mike, I feel, I feel the listeners shaking their head saying, no, you can get a late round quarterback. We are late round quarterback truthers here. That's how we play the game. But at the same time, we always say you need to stay water and.

[Jason Moore]

You can't be a blind adherent to a strategy. If Mike here, maybe this will make it easier on you.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

22Nd overall pick is a running back with 1200 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. I mean, that's your quarterback. This is not just a quarterback. Lamar Jackson's not just a quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

You're getting a quarterback and a running back in one. In one slot. And I came into this off season stating being Mr. Pat Mahomes, I believe he's going to bounce back to two years ago as far as like electricity, not necessarily 50 touchdowns. But I started him out knowing he would end as my first quarterback and I probably still wouldn't draft him where he's going to land, but that's how I Looked at the Chiefs offense and when I finished and saw that Lamar Jackson had a healthy lead over Pat Mahomes, I believe Lamar Jackson, because of the rushing floor, barring injury, is pretty much a lock to be one of those top two quarterbacks. So. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So two holds, one fold.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm a surprising hold.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

Mind's blown. And really, history is on Mike's side. Just to be clear, history is on Mike's side for that argument and because it's what we've preached for years. But I do think that Lamar is categorically different.

[Mike Wright]

He is different. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I'm going to hop in next because I'm actually talking about one of Lamar Jackson's receiving options here in Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews. I picked two players where I genuinely didn't know where I stood on them. I know where I stand on the player and the outlook for the season, but that does not always equate to whether or not you draft him. Like, for instance, you know Lamar Jackson is going to have a great year. Right, Mike?

[Jason Moore]

That is correct.

[Andy Holloway]

But you would not draft him.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And so where am I on Mark Andrews as one of my two players? I believe in Mark Andrews quite a lot, but he's a tight end at a onesie position. So let's just recap who Mark Andrews is as a fantasy option, what his range of outcomes are. In 15 games last year, he had 10 touchdowns, 852 yards. That was only his second year as a tight end. Tight ends take a long time to burst out. I talked about this last week. The fact that Hayden Hurst leaving, I believe, is going to open up.

[Mike Wright]

Hayden burst. You just said burst out, so I was going off of your words.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

You have to remember. I don't know what comes out of my mouth, Mike. Like, you knew that I said burst out. I had no idea.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, okay.

[Andy Holloway]

So here's the thing. Mark Andrews coming into year three without Hayden Hurst, I think could take a step forward. I have him right now ranked as my number three tight end, ahead of Zach Ertz. I believe Mark Andrews is talented and I think Lamar Jackson loses a little bit of the rushing and. But ads, I have him adding 60 passing attempts this season. So Mark Andrews has the opportunity, I think, to break out. Everybody wants that next George Kittle, the previous Travis Kelsey, the, you know, the breakout guy before he breaks out, where.

[Jason Moore]

You'Re going to feel like you want this upcoming years. Mark Andrews, because he had that breakout here.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, but he didn't. Mark Andrews last year broke out in Fantasy but he didn't cement himself as one of the absolute. No, no, no. We'll look at where he's being drafted. He's being drafted in the fourth round. He has not catapulted up into the tier of Travis Kelsey and George Kittle.

[Mike Wright]

Pretty good.

[Andy Holloway]

It's pretty good.

[Jason Moore]

Now you're right that he's not kiddling Kelsey but you and but you just said he broke out in fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

No, he burst out.

[Jason Moore]

Did he burst? No. Hearse burst?

[Andy Holloway]

Hurst burst.

[Mike Wright]

Hurst gonna burst.

[Andy Holloway]

Getting back on the rails here. My point is that what he has not done is transformed into 130 target number one tight end option. He came out and a lot of his, I mean he had 10 touchdowns, he was one of only two receiver receiving options in the league to have double digit touchdowns last year. So you have to worry a little bit which is why he's in the fourth round. Whether or not he's got enough volume to even be as good as he was last year or to take that next step forward. I believe in the talent. I believe in the quarterback obviously. And so looking at what, what I believe in the fourth round would I be willing to draft who I think is the number three tight end in the league? Yes, of course you would.

[Jason Moore]

After that argument.

[Andy Holloway]

I am a fuldom I would not. And here's why the number the fourth round.

[Mike Wright]

I am just so confused at what.

[Andy Holloway]

Is happening the fourth round tight ends over the last couple of years. The fourth and fifth round. Those guys that get drafted there, they're exciting, they're on the precipice of taking that next step forward. Allah, O.J. howard, Zach Ertz for several of these years, Jordan Reed, you know, Jimmy Graham on one of the. These are no guarantees here. And I think in order to pay off in that fourth round value because it's not just about whether he's good, it's about what are you giving up in the fourth round. And in the fourth round there are some wide receivers that I am absolutely in love with. DJ Chark is going behind Mark Andrews. I'm not drafting correct.

[Mike Wright]

That is the correct move.

[Andy Holloway]

Mark Andrews over DJ Chark. He's going ahead of Calvin Ridley. I'm not drafting a tight end who could take that breakout because here's the truth. I'm projecting 60 more passing attempts for Lamar Jackson and that is about 460 passing attempts is a very low number. So I don't see how Mark Andrews hops up to 130 targets. I think he's great. I think he'll finish the year okay. But he is not going to help my fantasy team as much as other players. In the fourth round. I will take a shot on some of my favorite late round guys like Hayden Hurst, like Mike Gasicki, like Jonu Smith who cost me nothing. And I will pair them in the draft with Calvin Ridley or DJ Chark or AJ Brown who he's going one spot next to in best ball leagues right now. So that's my fold. And where do you two stand on Mark Andrews?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'll fold him for a fourth round pick. I don't see the need to invest. I don't think the passing volume increases. I think Hollywood Brown is more involved. They might add a piece in the passing game and I don't, you know, 30 catches or whatever it was for Hayden Hurst last year. The way the NFL works, you don't just translate that to the next man up. I mean it's. I feel confident that Mark Andrews will be a top five tight end. I feel confident that Lamar Jackson loves throwing him the football more than just about anybody. But I'm not going to spend a fourth round on him.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean you spend a fourth round last year on Zach Ertz who was the tight end three and I could tell you he didn't help my team as much as other options in the fourth round. And Zach Ertz was good.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

I wouldn't draft him over the wide receivers right now in the fourth. We'll see if ADP shakes up by the time August rolls around. But I want Mark Andrews on my team. But I don't think I can get him. All right. The name I would like to bring up for holding or folding Cooper cup wide receiver for the Los Angeles Rams who was absolutely on fire to start the year. He. I mean it was. We hit this point of the season of like do you try to trade and then we're speaking to a trade with Andy was do I try and trade Odell Beckham Jr. Who is kind of flat right now for Cooper cup and it's like you can't possibly. Yeah, you should probably try and do that because Cooper cup is absolutely crushing. Weeks two through five here as fantasy finishes 13, 4, 5 9. Jared Goff had a league best 135.4 pass rating when throwing it to Cooper cup on third down. Like he was so reliable. He was so great. He then he had a game of 200 plus yards and then it fell apart at the end of the year where he the production went away, the targets went away, the Team moved to a different offensive philosophy.

[Jason Moore]

Can I just say that just to interrupt you?

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

That that was annoying. That was annoying for that to happen with Cooper cup. Every year there's a certain amount of games consecutively that a player can put up monumental numbers to where you finally feel like you can anoint them.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Like, like I felt like I got to the point with Cooper cup where I go, he is definitively a wide receiver, one he should be definitively thought about, traded for in dynasty leagues, considered a wide receiver run.

[Andy Holloway]

And then he, I think he cemented himself at that point in the season as a top five wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Yeah, he was absolutely fantastic. And then he was actually okay those final five games because he caught a touchdown in every single one, which he's good at.

[Andy Holloway]

Cooper Cup.

[Mike Wright]

Cooper cup does get touchdowns. So laying out what happened last year and right now Cooper cup has an ADP of wide receiver 13 in basketball. Am I holding or am I folding? Cooper Cup And I am folding. I have Cooper cup ranked now as the wide receiver 21. So I am not saying it's all doom and gloom for Cooper Cup. I just can't possibly draft him at his adp. And here is why that end of season is so concerning to me. One, because the snaps went down. You know those final five games he was down at 63% where he was and he was averaging just six targets in those games. Five receptions, 56 yards. That was what he was averaging. The touchdown saved everything for fantasy purposes. But if you look the real fantasy decline came week 10. This is coming off of the buy and coming off of his game where he was 7 for 220 yards, where he absolutely destroyed the Cincinnati Bengals. That next game off the bye week, 0 for 0. The next game 3 for 53. You know what stands out about those two games? Brandon Cooks wasn't on the field. Cooper cup had such a massive opportunity and he didn't catch a single pass. Like what, what happened?

[Jason Moore]

And then you saw they just seem so broken.

[Mike Wright]

They absolutely did. And like people have been talking about it and honestly I can accept this, that like Cooper cup was pushing himself back or he did push himself back from the ACL surgery, rehabbing. He just, it, it fell apart for him. His, you know, tired, whatever it is when recovering from an ACL injury. I've never had to do it personally. They're saying it just. It trailed off. But to me, how do your targets drop to six targets a game after the bye week? It wasn't just production, it was opportunity. It completely disappeared. And now there's also this according to reception perception. So these are the words from Matt Harmon available in the ultimate draft kit. Cooper Kupp has never finished above the 12th percentile in success rate versus man or press coverage at any point in his career. He cannot play outside. That is interesting to monitor. After we saw cup snap rate fall in the closing weeks of 2019 when the Rams played fewer 11 personnel, we're all having to make a decision. Do the Rams really go to 12 personnel? Do they actually make the switch that they made for those final five games? Because there's a lot of implications like Cooper Cup's production went down. Tyler Higby. If they stay in that system, Tyler Higby will be an absolute steal. Or maybe it's Gerald Everett, but one of the tight ends, it's going to be incredible for fantasy purposes because if they're in 12 personnel, Cooper cup can't go into the slot. And I have great concerns of these things happening.

[Jason Moore]

So Cooper cup, interesting.

[Mike Wright]

He's just outside of my top 20. I still think he'll have a solid fantasy year, but I can't draft him where he is going right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. And I understand those arguments. I'm glad that the Foot Clan is getting to hear that side of it because I think that that is obviously within the range of outcomes for Cooper Cup. We saw it at the end of last year. I am absolutely holding. I am not on the old side. I think that having an off season and a plan without Brandon Cooks is different than when Cooks initially goes down and you're scrambling and the team looked like it was in shambles. I think with Cooks off the field, cup is a great wide receiver. Cup is used by Jared Goff. Cup came in in his rookie year, was the 26th wide receiver in 15 games. Then the following year he was a top 10 wide receiver until he got injured.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And then he was a top. So all he's done, just to recap in his entire career has been a top fantasy option at wide receiver or been off the field with injury. I think an extra year removed from ACL, I'm in. I've got him as my wide receiver. 9.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my.

[Jason Moore]

I have him at wide receiver. 6.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my goodness.

[Jason Moore]

So I have to be a hold and the real thing, again, it all draws back. What do you extrapolate from that end of the year? When I hear that Matt Harmon statistic, I say how much opportunity is Cooper cup had to succeed on the outside. How you, you know, what are we extrapolating? Is this A man that can't succeed there or a man that has had limited opportunity to succeed there. That's something that you look at. You know, we've had to deal with that with Adam Thielen a little bit going in, inside, outside. I believe in the talent of Cooper cup and the red zone prowess of Cooper Cup. And at the end of the day, it's like they were broken at the end of last year. I don't know if they're trying something new. I have a hard time believing they can just put that into place in 2020 each and every week and have success. It seemed like an offensive line situation that they had to just do some hijinks to get around.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. But I would say it wasn't just hijinks. Results like they went from.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but then they didn't make the playoffs. I mean, they pushed. Their playoff push was unsuccessful. So it's hard to.

[Mike Wright]

I get that. But their. Their points per game, like if you look at when they were. They had this weird lull in the middle of the field, then all of a sudden they went back. Yeah, Jared Goff was great again.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, their offense was better. It was a success. They might not have. They might not have made the playoffs, but they actually, during that change, they did win more games than they lost. They were three and two the last five games. That's from memory.

[Jason Moore]

It's a bet. You have a bet on Cooper cup based on what you saw at the end of the last year. Also based on Sean McVay, you know, and his ability to have success with those guys. Statistically speaking, I have to be a hold, but I get it. I get the uncertainty.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that's why I'm genuinely happy that the argument was made. Because Foot Clan needs to know that in the range of outcomes, when two of the three have him ranked so high.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let me work to confuse people. My second player for hold'em and fold him is AJ Brown.

[Andy Holloway]

I didn't know who your players were. This is. This is a lot of fun for me.

[Mike Wright]

You're great friends on Twitter.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah. A.J. brown, needing some bulletin board material, found a tweet of mine the other day where I. I was thankful. You know, I tend to be a positive tweeter, but you never know what someone's gonna find. And it was. I had tweeted. The worst mistake that AJ Brown ever made was standing next to DK Metcalf in that pre draft photo because he's a monster. He's a beast. He's a huge, like, AJ Brown is not of this world as much as DK Metcalf is, you know, a monstrous wide receiver. A big guy, a big body Des Bryant like Kai. So it was kind of like you underestimated that physical prowess of AJ Brown, which obviously he said that was stupid to underestimate me. Look what I did on the field. And from a physical standpoint, I mean, I just have this in here. According to Next gen stats, Brown led the league in yards after catch, above expectation. No one was like him in the NFL last year in terms of, you know, taking the ball and going up field and disappearing. I mean, he just manhandled people. So, you know, he responded and said, hey, good, I'll just continue to be, you know, undervalued and I'll continue to do what I've done. Last year, from weeks 10 on in points per game, A.J. brown was the number two fantasy wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

That's pretty good.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, number two is all right. And you know, we obviously saw what Ryan Tannehill did in that span. Now you come into this year as ADP, right now as the wide receiver 16. That's not.

[Andy Holloway]

It's dropped.

[Jason Moore]

And why I said I was going to confuse the hook line is because I kind of look at that and I'm confusing myself because I'm like, everything that happens. 16, 16.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, my God.

[Jason Moore]

So see what I'm saying?

[Mike Wright]

No, I'm reevaluating.

[Jason Moore]

I think maybe we've.

[Andy Holloway]

Early in the off season. Sorry to interrupt. But early in the offseason, I know that he was like, he was up near top 10 at wide receiver and.

[Jason Moore]

These regression metrics, right, touchdowns. In 2019, he had eight of them. His touchdowns based on expectation for those routes in those plays would have been just three touchdowns. I mean, he was a player that essentially outperformed the opportunity in the same way that Tannehill did. We've made this argument all year long about how this team runs through Derek Henry, but now I see that wide receiver 16 number, and you guys just talked about Mark Andrews, Mark Andrews versus the chance at the, you know, these stretches of games where he's the number two overall wide receiver, the player, the talent coming into the league, how much I loved A.J. brown. And then he carries it out in one of the hardest, most difficult places to do it, someplace Corey Davis couldn't do it for years and with his draft capital. And I thought I was going to say I'm still folding, but I'm not.

[Mike Wright]

No, you should not. I'm in.

[Jason Moore]

That's a hold at draft pick overall 44.

[Andy Holloway]

Everyone shut your mouth. Let's keep him at wide receiver 16 so that we can draft it because.

[Jason Moore]

It'S too affordable for a potential top 10 wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, what's his floor? Because I recognize that you take a bunch of touchdowns away and he only had 52 receptions last year. Granted, that was a rookie. Those will go up a little bit. But he's not a high volume guy because this is not a high volume passing offense.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but it was a rookie year and he didn't surpass 55% of snaps until week five. Oh, so he wasn't even on the field. And we all knew that and we all saw that and it was a problem.

[Andy Holloway]

So what's his floor like? Wide receiver 20.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. I mean, his floor is four picks below.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. If you're drafting a wide receiver 16, this is, this is great information because both of us were surprised. I, you know, we don't just sit there and study ADP every single day because it changes so often.

[Jason Moore]

It was a bit shocking to me. And you look at the situation, here's what the problem that will happen, and we saw it in the playoffs and those aren't manifested in the consistency charts on the website. He's going to disappear. There's going to be a week like week 13 where he's the 59, but every wide receiver kind of disappears. The real question is, is he going to win you weeks?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And A.J. brown is, you know, a sophomore in the NFL. They brought back the player that made him the number two wide receiver from weeks 10 on. And your price is wide receiver 16 now. Not the kind of hype, not the kind of price that it was earlier in the off season. People have cooled on him, they've cooled on Tannehill. They have not carried both of those numbers through to the ADP anymore. So at this point, I'm going to hold A.J. brown.

[Mike Wright]

I would as well. Like I have him ranked right now as wide receiver 18. And that was almost hot. Takey to the point of you could see how confused we are about that ADP drop.

[Jason Moore]

So, yes, he's a 14. So he's ahead of the ADP and we got it.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

At that point you've got a, you've got a safe enough floor and a high ceiling. So, yeah, thanks for the information, fellas. All right. The player I'm going to bring up is one that I have had, I would say, a battle with over the last couple of years. I've not been very kind to Mr. Odell Beckham Jr. That's true. Has hurt many fantasy players. I would say three years in a row. I realized that he was. I know Mike always grimaces because the year before last. The year before.

[Jason Moore]

Nary a positive word from you on him.

[Andy Holloway]

Nary a positive word.

[Jason Moore]

Nary a positive word.

[Andy Holloway]

The year before last, Odell Beckham had a very strong overall season. He was very. He finished as the wide receiver 16, but only played 12 games.

[Mike Wright]

Wide receiver 16 and 12 games is a very good season.

[Andy Holloway]

But he obviously let everybody down because he was injured for the playoffs. Nobody won with Odell Beckham because he wasn't there when you needed him at the end of the season. My point is this. Back to. Back to back years of being drafted in the first round and not helping you win a championship.

[Jason Moore]

That's a fair point. I mean, three consecutive years of that. It's true.

[Andy Holloway]

And all three because of injury. Right. He only played four games the first year. Then he missed the, you know, the four most important games the next year. And now this last year he didn't. You know, he didn't miss games. He played all 16. Except it was injury. Right. That's what people are saying. It was. He was. He was hobbled. It was a core issue. Obviously, it was injury. He had it. Surgery fixed. So I don't usually get elective surgeries for no reason. I'm not. Like, I wasn't injured, but I would love surgery.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we were shooting for the Clementine, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah. I was really wanting the Clementine surgery. So, look, Odell Beckham Jr. He has obviously had great spurts within his career. He is a great wide receiver. So nary a kind word. There's. There are.

[Jason Moore]

There's a kind word.

[Andy Holloway]

There are kind words. He is a great wide receiver. He was playing with injury last year. There are a couple pretty crazy stats when it comes to Odell Beckham Jr. You know, he had the second most deep targets in the NFL, which is great, except, you know, that's. It doesn't feel that great. Here's my favorite. Since 2000, since the year 2000, there have been 301 wide receiver seasons where they had 132 or more targets. There's a lot of targets, and that's a large sample size. 301. And Odell Beckham's last year ranks 277th in terms of PPR fantasy points. He stunk. He was trash last year for this Browns team, and Baker Mayfield was trash. So hold them or fold them. You would assume I'm out again. I assumed I was out again, but I am actually a hold them. If the ADP holds on Odell Beckham who is not a first round pick as I feared he might be again, he is a third round pick. He is going right now between DJ Moore and Alan Robinson. Look, all of those, those three guys have worries to me. DJ Moore hasn't really proven it for a long time as quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Has one of you to say that about DJ Moore. I mean waiting for that all Summer Long, we're D.J.

[Andy Holloway]

Somebody to say he's not guaranteed, but he's not guaranteed. Alan Robinson. I've, you know, been on record being, you know, pitchforked and torches with you two coming after me for my lack of love for Alan Robinson. And here with Odell Beckham at that point in the draft, look, 132 targets is a really nice number he had last year. And I think that he didn't get those for no reason. He got those because he is great. And the thing is he was complaining is in 2016, Alan Robinson was 281st on that list. Of those 301, DeAndre Hopkins in 2016 was 285th. Mike Evans was 275th. Okay, so Otto Beckham was 277th. But the thing that's in common with these guys is that they're great and that's why they kept getting that many targets even when they were struggling. And after those years, Hopkins, Alan Robinson and Mike Evans have dominated. So if I'm picking in the third round and I'm looking at ceiling and I say which one of these guys could end up as the wide receiver one, Only Odell Beckham is there. Alan Robinson is not wide receiver one. I don't believe J. Moore's wide receiver one and, and at that price, if he creeps up to the top of the second, well, I'm not competing with DJ Moore and Alan Robinson anymore. So right now I'm a hold on Odell Beckham and I think with that surgery, with that fixed, he's going to show that he is a great wide receiver this year. The biggest risk is obviously injury.

[Jason Moore]

This is a real eye opening episode. I'm most certainly a fold on Odell Beckham Jr. At that price. We just talked about a receiver around later that I think has just as much of a chance to be wide receiver one as Beckham does.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

I mean the argument for A.J. brown around and a half later, I feel like he's just as much of a dice roll on production as Odell Beckham. Has been based on the past three years. You mix that with a concerning Baker Mayfield season, that could mean quarterback tumult and the Kevin Stefanski higher. And it does not make me feel cozy in the third round.

[Andy Holloway]

I get that. I love the fourth round wide receivers right now. I love A.J. brown. His value is better to me than Odell Beckham value. So. But the question isn't which one are you taking? You're playing that ADP game when you're on the clock. So here's the running backs. Let's say maybe you agree you're not a huge DJ Moore fan. Here's the running backs that are right there. Lev Bell, Chris Carson, James Conner.

[Jason Moore]

You're saying versus Odell.

[Andy Holloway]

Versus Odell Beckham.

[Jason Moore]

Lev Bell, Chris Carson, James Conner.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Chris Carson's interesting. But I. My point is you're going to have to draft someone in that round and I'm not excited.

[Mike Wright]

I bypass.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You know how I'm drafting A.J. brown now in that round.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. I mean maybe.

[Jason Moore]

No maybe that is the heads up with Odell Beckham Jr. It's very close between those two, so.

[Andy Holloway]

But you're a fold and Mike.

[Jason Moore]

I am a fold. Yeah. Mike, where are you?

[Mike Wright]

I have Beckham right now at 20. I think I would hold for now because I. My argument.

[Jason Moore]

He's being drafted at wide receiver 10. But you would still hold.

[Andy Holloway]

I have him at 13 in my rank.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's at wide receiver 10 because the. Wow, man, that's just. That's really high. That's much higher than I have him ranked. That was the argument for what you were talking about, Jason. I was going to say yeah, but he gets the targets. You had since cleared that up. Like he's going to get the targets.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know though, man.

[Jason Moore]

Austin Hooper's arrival. Jarvis Landry gets his targets. Yeah, well, Jarvis Kareem Hunt gets his targets.

[Mike Wright]

Jarvis got his last year.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, real quick. I've got a pretty targets. I've got to throw to Brooks because the head has been more vigorous than I have ever seen. He doesn't even know he's been doing this. Nodding in agreement when I talk about his injuries. Nodding in agreement when you know you're. I think this is a strong fold, but maybe I'm reading the head movement wrong. Brooks, Judge Giamatti, where do you stand, hold or fold on Odell Beckham Jr.

[Mike Wright]

Fold them.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean that. That head was.

[Jason Moore]

He was. You could see a lot of emotion over there.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel like usual me would be listening to this and screaming at me saying he's such an injury risk.

[Jason Moore]

Well, later. What are you doing later you might be listening to this and screaming at you.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true. It's a matter of whether or last.

[Jason Moore]

Year'S Odell Beckham, you would have been.

[Andy Holloway]

Screaming, stay water, my friends.

[Jason Moore]

You see, it's funny, the ADP in the way that AJ Brown shocked me that it was late. It kind of shocked me that Beckham was this significantly above where AJ Brown was.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's wild. And also. But I have to do this, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Into the this bust year of 2018. Yeah, I get it. He got hurt and he wasn't there for the fantasy playoffs, but he was the wide receiver. 7. Up until that point, through 12 games.

[Andy Holloway]

You're speaking my point here, Mike, he.

[Mike Wright]

Got you to the playoffs. That's not a bust. It's so ridiculous to call him that.

[Andy Holloway]

I look, for the purpose of this.

[Jason Moore]

You call him a bust last year, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Last year, yes. He was a bust compared to his adp.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah. Last year.

[Jason Moore]

He's a disaster.

[Andy Holloway]

Unmitigated disaster. Yeah, for sure.

[Mike Wright]

I mean.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Yeah. Who we got, Mike? All right.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think I really fully understood the game that we were going to play of this. Trying to set up a player who is ambiguous.

[Jason Moore]

So do you want to ask us our opinion before you even give your case?

[Mike Wright]

Sure. Let me ask you the opinion, your opinion on a wide receiver who's currently being drafted in basketball in the 13th round. He's the wide receiver, 55, which is pretty sweet.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

Better late than never. But at that point, if you're folding on a guy, for me to bring him up doesn't really make much sense. But I looked when I was trying to find the player I wanted to talk about, I looked at someone who has a huge disparity in ADP and where I have them ranked. And I understand me bringing this player's name up right here after I just talked about Daniel Jones is going to make me look like I have now become a Giants homer and a Giants truther, which is not the truth. But I want to talk about Golden Tate, wide receiver for the New York Giants, who was actually much better than people remember. And people realize he started the year off with a four game suspension.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Way to go golden.

[Mike Wright]

That didn't help you. As Jason would say, that's a bust.

[Jason Moore]

If you draft him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, didn't feel good.

[Mike Wright]

Which we said don't draft Golden Tate because you don't want to sit through.

[Jason Moore]

A well, you can pick him up later.

[Mike Wright]

And week one, he was very bad, like. But look, I get it. You're coming off a four game suspension. You're not acclimated to the team. But after that game, he was a top 36 wide receiver in every single game he played with Daniel Jones. He was a top 24 wide receiver in five of eight of those games. The way I'm. The reason I'm phrasing it like that is because Daniel Jones did miss a couple games. The golden tape was not great when the ghost of Eli Manning came back into the NFL. But he was very good with Daniel Jones. He had big games. He was averaging 14 points per game in a half point scoring situation, which is, that's excellent to be averaging that number. Even with the games of Eli Manning from week six, which is week six on, which is removing his first game. He was the wide receiver 21. And you are getting him absolutely free as wide receiver 55. Now I can make the argument what you were going.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no, go ahead.

[Mike Wright]

I can make the argument against Golden Tate of saying, you know, they had such a roulette wheel of wide receivers. When was Sterling Shepard in slate and when was he in. These guys all had their own injury problems. But you have to remember, why is Golden Tate on the New York Giants? They traded Odell Beckham away and then almost immediately after that, they gave Golden Tate a four year, 37 and a half million dollar deal with $23 million guaranteed. They picked him up to be their wide receiver one and he came through for fantasy purposes.

[Jason Moore]

It's a tough sell for me. The Golden Tates and Jameson Crowders of the world, they feel like the, you know, when you go to the buffet restaurant and even though they have like some steak laying out there or they have the meal that's supposed to be really expensive, you only get so good of a meal at one of those restaurants. Jameson Crowder and Golden Tate feels to me like, look, we've been around the block with these players. Five years of Crowder's career, a bunch of Golden Tate's career. He'll be 32 years old. You love Evan Ingram this year. Darius Slayton came out of the woodwork. They didn't know about him when they signed Golden Tate. And you got to pay veterans a lot more money. I mean, somebody like Golden Tate, to get him to your roster, you got to pay him a lot more money. I just, you know, I know I've seen the best of Golden Tate. Does anybody disagree with that contention? The best of Golden Tate.

[Andy Holloway]

I do not. In the past, I do not disagree. I agree.

[Jason Moore]

Right. And so I wonder now what you're saying. I mean, look, the guy's not being drafted, so if he's a free player, I mean, I want you to have him on your team.

[Mike Wright]

My point is he is the leftover of the wide receivers from the Giants. He's being drafted behind Slayton and drafted behind Sterling Shannon.

[Jason Moore]

He would be for me. So I guess that makes him a fold. I would draft both those other players over.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

I looked at my rankings. I was curious where I have him ranked, because when I think about Golden Tate, I think he's being overlooked. And he clearly, at wide receiver 55, he could end up being a value. I have him ranked at wide receiver 54. And so I think he's about where he should be. And when I go and I look at his game logs last year, you're right, he was pretty good for fantasy. But, you know, you just talked about, well, the touchdowns came for Cooper Cup. That kind of happened for Golden Tate. He had, you know, in a shortened time span, he had those six touchdowns. Well, he's a six or seven touchdown guy over the course of a season. And we've seen that his whole career. He was on pace for 10 touchdowns. And I, you know, he had a week, you know, three receptions, 33 yards, but a touchdown. So he was okay for fantasy that week.

[Jason Moore]

Look, I've said it forever. This is my weakness in fantasy. I don't like the wide receiver two or three perceptively. Like, I just don't see the value. Like, when I think of Slayton, I'm like, well, I don't know what Slayton could be. I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

And you have to say his name like that. Slayton.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, my goodness.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you, Lefkoe.

[Jason Moore]

He could be a superstar. Yeah, but I know what Tate is, and I know he's not going to be the anchor of my football team.

[Andy Holloway]

If Tate is the one, then he is a value. That's. That's just flat out. I don't know that there is a one. I think there's going to be a one this game, and it's going to be different that game, and it's going to be different the next game. And so that's kind of.

[Jason Moore]

I know you like a Mike, and I'm trying to. I'm trying to listen. I'm trying to learn.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel like I'm.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, it's. It's okay.

[Jason Moore]

Like Jameson Crowder or Golden Tate.

[Mike Wright]

Golden Tate by a lot.

[Jason Moore]

Really?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Interesting. So Gordon. Yeah, okay.

[Mike Wright]

No, I like Daniel Jones. So I'm going to like some of the guys that he's throwing the ball to. And of the wide receivers, I think that it is easily Golden Tate is the number one.

[Jason Moore]

What does that really mean? Like, you see finish wise compared to his adp, obviously you have him ranked. What does a good season feel like for Golden Tate? Last year you can throw out the fantasy finish if you want, with the suspension. Year before with Stafford, he was 33rd in 15 games.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, to Mike's credit, if you throw out that first game back after the four games. So those first five weeks where he wasn't there for four and then was, you know, sucked in the first week, he was on pace for 10. 10, which, if. Which would be great.

[Mike Wright]

Well, like I said, in that time, he was the wide receiver. 21.

[Jason Moore]

10 is insane.

[Andy Holloway]

That's my point is I don't think Golden Tate's a 10 touchdown receiving. So where do you have him ranked?

[Mike Wright]

So right now I have him 29. So I have him as a top 30 wide receiver, which is an unbelievable value for a wide receiver who's going in the 50s and he's going to. I like him. I think he's the number one.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's a wide receiver 21 from week six on, for what it's worth.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Even with the problems at the quarterback position. So I always hate, like opposing an opinion on a player being drafted as the 55th wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

That's why I said, because opposing the.

[Jason Moore]

Opinion is of no value to you.

[Andy Holloway]

But we were able to do it. And that's what. And that's what's most important is that we were able to, no matter what, no matter how good the value is.

[Jason Moore]

Because it's really just upside if you want to stack them at the end of your bench. And you know Mike's wrong. Oh, my gosh. Wow. You got a guy at the end of the bench to cut. Mike's right. Then you have a steal.

[Andy Holloway]

One of the things that does come to mind is that this year I am wanting to draft a little bit more reliable depth than just swinging for the fence. And so he does fit that bill. Right. You can. You just laid out the argument for his upside, but you know that he's going to be fantasy relevant in a pinch. You could start him.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't know that about Darius Slate.

[Jason Moore]

That's how I feel about Crowder. You could just put Crowder in your lane and you'll be okay.

[Andy Holloway]

And so those type of players I am looking at in the 13th round. So I'm not like a complete, you know, punt him off the bridge situation.

[Jason Moore]

Now, that'd be rude.

[Mike Wright]

I laugh now because I was very staunch in Golden Tate.

[Jason Moore]

Easily over.

[Mike Wright]

No. I have Crowder at 32, so he's three spots behind Golden Tate.

[Jason Moore]

They do seem.

[Mike Wright]

That's still real easy.

[Jason Moore]

They feel similar to me. They really do want to thank Pristine Auction for supporting the show. They got thousands of daily auctions. Everything starts at a buck, runs for 24 hours. Sports memorabilia that you just cannot get anywhere else. Recent daily auction that just ended, a Devonte Adams signed jersey for $77. We're actually giving away a Devonte Adams signed [e-mail] from Pristine Auction right now. So you can check that out. And if you go, sign [e-mail], use the code BALLERS and you'll get a $10 credit towards that first purchase.

[Mike Wright]

We made it.

[Andy Holloway]

What a show, gentlemen.

[Mike Wright]

What a show.

[Jason Moore]

Unbelievable.

[Mike Wright]

And there'll be another show on Thursday.

[Jason Moore]

Yep, that's true.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Foot Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on TwitterFFballers.