Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Bounce Back Players + The Return of the Hitman" (July 10, 2018)

The Fantasy Footballers, hosted by Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright, deliver another insightful episode focusing on identifying "bounce back" players poised to elevate their performance in the 2018 NFL Fantasy Football season. Additionally, the episode marks the return of Mike Wright after a brief hiatus.

1. Welcome and Introduction

The episode kicks off with the trio welcoming back Mike Wright after his six to eight-week absence spent near Big Bear Lake, where he attended to personal matters. Holloway humorously refers to Mike as "the elephant in the room," setting a lighthearted tone for the discussion [00:59].

2. Recognition for Draft Accuracy

A significant highlight is the acknowledgment of their draft accuracy. FantasyPros.com ranked Fantasy Footballers’ Jason Moore at number three out of 130 experts for draft accuracy. This achievement underscores the show's reputation for providing reliable fantasy football insights. Holloway shares, "It's validating to the analysis and the work we do, and we're proud of that" [05:27]. The hosts express gratitude towards their loyal listeners, attributing their success to the community's support.

3. Main Segment: Bounce Back Players

The core of the episode revolves around identifying players who underperformed in 2017 but have the potential to significantly improve in 2018. Each host selects two players they believe fit this "bounce back" criteria.

a. Mike Wright’s Selections

1. Amari Cooper

   • Analysis: Cooper had a challenging 2017, with nearly half of his yards coming in just two games and suffering from defensive pressures. However, Wright remains optimistic about his potential, noting significant changes in his team dynamics and offensive opportunities.
   • Quote: "If Amari Cooper has a huge amount of his yards in four games yet again, it will not surprise me." [13:35]

2. Jordan Reed

   • Analysis: Despite past disappointments due to injuries and limited game time, Wright believes Reed can bounce back if he maintains health. He emphasizes Reed’s established rapport with quarterback Alex Smith, who has a history of supporting top-tier tight ends.
   • Quote: "He's playing at least 12 games." [27:35]

b. Jason Moore’s Selections

1. Marcus Mariota

   • Analysis: Following an injury that sidelined him for part of the 2017 season, Mariota showed promise early on. Moore projects Mariota as a quarterback one for the upcoming season, anticipating a robust return given the Titans' offensive improvements.
   • Quote: "I think he's a quarterback one this next season and he's being drafted very, very, very late." [16:13]

2. Emmanuel Sanders

   • Analysis: Sanders had an underwhelming 2017 but possesses the skills and experience to reclaim his status as a top receiver. Moore highlights Sanders' route-running and durability, positioning him as a valuable late-round pick.
   • Quote: "He's a wide receiver too on the season as opposed to having to shoot for the moon." [28:18]

c. Andy Holloway’s Selections

1. Ty Hilton

   • Analysis: Hilton's inconsistent 2017 was attributed to poor quarterback play rather than his own performance. With a stable quarterback situation, Holloway anticipates Hilton regaining his pre-2017 form.
   • Quote: "He's a top 12 guy with Andrew Luck." [20:18]

2. Greg Olsen

   • Analysis: Despite dealing with a foot injury, Olsen's consistent history and relationship with quarterback Cam Newton make him a strong candidate for a bounce-back season. Holloway is confident in Olsen’s ability to return to his elite tight end status.
   • Quote: "Greg Olson is a great bounce back candidate." [31:59]

4. Listener Questions and Answers (Mailbag)

The hosts engage with listeners' questions, providing tailored advice on various fantasy football strategies.

a. Drafting Multiple Running Backs Sequentially

• Question: Adrian from Tulsa asks about the viability of drafting three consecutive running backs in a PPR league.
• Hosts' Advice: Holloway advises against pre-deciding to draft multiple running backs, emphasizing flexibility to capitalize on available talent. "I generally have a problem with you deciding before the draft that you're going to have three straight running backs" [36:33].

b. Strategy for Two Tight End Leagues

• Question: A listener from Philadelphia inquires about drafting strategies for leagues requiring two tight ends.
• Hosts' Advice: Moore recommends securing one reliable tight end early and streaming the second position, suggesting targeting top-tier tight ends without overcommitting early. "You need to make sure that your first tight end isn't a complete question mark past the Trey Burton tier" [37:53].

c. Drafting Multiple Players from the Same Team

• Question: Nick from New York asks about the risks of drafting multiple players from a single team.
• Hosts' Advice: The trio advises caution, highlighting that good defenses like Minnesota's can limit the upside of multiple players from the same team. "Minnesota's defense is too good to allow all four of those guys to go off in a game" [40:15].

d. Running Back Committees

• Question: Daniel from Charleston asks at what carry percentage a running back committee becomes problematic.
• Hosts' Advice: Holloway and Moore focus on total carry counts rather than percentages, suggesting that around 60% is ideal but recognizing the value in high carry counts even if percentages vary. "Devonta Freeman...he was at 51%" [40:59].

e. Dynasty Trade Decision

• Question: Caleb poses a trade scenario in a dynasty league: swapping Tyrell Williams and Leonard Fournette for Adam Thielen and Devonta Freeman.
• Hosts' Advice: Wright and Moore support acquiring Adam Thielen and Devonta Freeman, citing Thielen's elite receiver status and the easier replacement of running backs in dynasty formats. "Adam Thielen is very, very close to an elite fantasy wide receiver" [42:31].

f. Keeper League Strategy

• Question: Scott and Tucson Arizona ask whether to keep David Johnson in the first round or Michael Thomas in the eighth round.
• Hosts' Advice: Both Jason and Holloway advocate for keeping Michael Thomas due to his high value and potential as a top wide receiver, despite his lower draft position. "It's Michael Thomas for me" [43:37].

5. Concluding Remarks

The episode wraps up with the hosts reiterating their appreciation for listeners and emphasizing their commitment to providing valuable fantasy football insights. They maintain their characteristic blend of humor and expert analysis, ensuring listeners are well-equipped for the upcoming fantasy season.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Mike Wright on Amari Cooper: “If Amari Cooper has a huge amount of his yards in four games yet again, it will not surprise me.” [13:35]

• Jason Moore on Marcus Mariota: “I think he's a quarterback one this next season and he's being drafted very, very, very late.” [16:13]

• Andy Holloway on Greg Olsen: “Greg Olson is a great bounce back candidate.” [31:59]

• Jason Moore on Emmanuel Sanders: “He's a wide receiver too on the season as opposed to having to shoot for the moon.” [28:18]

Key Takeaways

• Bounce Back Potential: Identifying players with the capacity to rebound is crucial for gaining an edge in fantasy leagues. The hosts provide data-driven insights into why specific players are expected to improve.

• Draft Flexibility: Rigid drafting strategies, such as committing to multiple running backs early, can hinder the ability to capitalize on value picks. Flexibility allows for adapting to the draft flow and maximizing team potential.

• Value in Late Rounds: Players like Emmanuel Sanders and Greg Olsen offer significant value in later rounds, providing high upside without necessitating high investment.

• Team Dynamics Matter: Player performance is often influenced by team dynamics, including quarterback play and offensive strategies. Understanding these relationships can inform more accurate player projections.

Final Thoughts

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers combines humor with in-depth analysis, offering listeners actionable strategies for the 2018 fantasy season. By focusing on bounce back players and addressing listener concerns, the hosts demonstrate their expertise and commitment to helping fantasy managers succeed.