Breakout Picks + Player Questions, SOS

Summary

Episode Summary: Fantasy Footballers - Breakout Picks + Player Questions, SOS

Release Date: August 20, 2019

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright dive deep into potential breakout players for the upcoming NFL season and address listener-submitted questions. The discussion is tailored to provide fantasy football enthusiasts with valuable insights, strategic advice, and actionable recommendations to enhance their fantasy teams.

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Breakout Picks

The primary focus of the episode revolves around identifying breakout candidates—players expected to significantly outperform their draft positions this season. Each host presents their top choices, supported by statistical analysis and team dynamics.

1. Chris Godwin – 66% Confidence

[Timestamp: 09:55]

Jason Moore kicks off the breakout discussion with Chris Godwin, a wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Moore emphasizes Godwin's enhanced situation following the departure of key teammates:

"When you bring those things together, I think you tear jump. I think you become a very reliable player."
— Jason Moore

Godwin is lauded for his exceptional ability to make contested catches and his integration into head coach Bruce Arians' pass-heavy offense. With the Buccaneers now a pass-first team, Godwin is poised to receive a substantial increase in targets, making him a prime candidate for a breakout season.

2. D.D. Westbrook – 65% Confidence

[Timestamp: 30:29]

Mike Wright brings attention to D.D. Westbrook of the Jacksonville Jaguars, highlighting his potential rise due to improved quarterback play and vacated targets from departing players:

"There's the natural rise of targets for the third year player... he's going to be an excellent PPR guy."
— Mike Wright

Wright points out that Westbrook will benefit from an increase in targets as the Jaguars streamline their receiving corps, making him a valuable asset in PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues.

3. Miles Sanders – 75% Confidence

[Timestamp: 30:32]

Andy Holloway presents Miles Sanders, a running back for the Philadelphia Eagles, as a high-upside breakout pick. Sanders' impressive preseason performance and favorable offensive environment are key factors:

"It's a guy who ran a 4.49. If you watch the combine video of him and Saquon, he's got Saquon beat in the first third of that 40 times."
— Andy Holloway

Sanders is viewed as a cost-effective option with the potential to earn significant touches in the Eagles' dynamic backfield, positioning him as a strong RB2 with upside.

4. Aaron Jones – Confidence <60%

[Timestamp: 31:00]

Jason Moore discusses Aaron Jones from the Green Bay Packers, acknowledging his talent but expressing caution due to changes in team strategy under new head coach Matt LaFleur:

"I can't fathom him going, yeah, we're going to do the same thing."
— Jason Moore

While Jones demonstrated his capabilities last season, uncertainties regarding his workload and the Packers' offensive approach make this a more cautious recommendation.

5. Vance McDonald – 85% Confidence

[Timestamp: 32:38]

Mike Wright stands firmly behind Vance McDonald, the tight end for the Pittsburgh Steelers. McDonald's increased role following the departure of Antonio Brown and his proven ability to produce makes him a top breakout candidate:

"If he's playing, he's going to break out. It's going to happen."
— Mike Wright

Wright highlights McDonald's performances, including a standout playoff game against Jacksonville, as indicators of his potential to become a reliable fantasy starter.

6. Curtis Samuel – 80% Confidence

[Timestamp: 35:59]

Andy Holloway introduces Curtis Samuel from the Detroit Lions as a versatile player with breakout potential, contingent on his health:

"What you're paying for Curtis Samuel in the seventh round is going to more than return the value."
— Andy Holloway

Samuel's seamless transition to wide receiver and his high reception efficiency make him a valuable late-round pick with significant upside in PPR formats.

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Player Questions (Mailbag)

The hosts transition to the Mailbag segment, addressing questions submitted by listeners. The discussions provide strategic insights on various fantasy football scenarios.

1. Keeper Costs and Strategies

[Timestamp: 42:35]

Question: "We're going to start doing keepers in my league starting 2020. Just wanted to know your thoughts on the best way to determine keeper costs in the draft and how to handle players that are taking off waivers during the season."
— Kyle in Chicago

Discussion:

• Jason Moore advocates for a system where only drafted players can be kept, eliminating the possibility of keeping waiver wire pickups.

  "I love the forced strategy on a league where it's like if you don't draft the player, if the league doesn't draft them so they cannot be kept, they're just not eligible to be kept, they're back in the draft."
  — Jason Moore

• Andy Holloway and Mike Wright discuss alternative methods, including ADP-based round penalties and monetary costs for keepers, ensuring that players acquired from waivers are priced appropriately.

2. Drafting Tony Pollard

[Timestamp: 46:31]

Question: "Why is no one even drafting Tony Pollard anywhere comparatively? Shouldn't he be getting drafted somewhere behind or between Austin Eckler and Justin Jackson? We haven't talked a lot about Tony."
— Parker in North Phoenix

Discussion:

• Mike Wright addresses concerns regarding Ezekiel Elliott's potential holdout, which affects Pollard's draft value.

  "Melvin Gordon's holdout threats are real. I don't believe Zeke is actually going to hold out."
  — Mike Wright

• Andy Holloway adds that Pollard has shown promise in preseason but remains cautious about his workload and team dynamics.

3. Remedies for Non-Responsive Trade Proposals

[Timestamp: 49:45]

Question: "Is there a remedy or punishment for people who take way too long to respond to trade proposals or at times even let the trade expire?"
— Matt in Wisconsin

Discussion:

• Mike Wright suggests establishing a dedicated communication platform (e.g., Facebook group, Twitter DM group) to enhance engagement and prompt responses.

  "The remedy is building up conversation in your league."
  — Mike Wright

• Jason Moore recommends direct outreach via personal messages rather than relying solely on the platform's trade system.

4. Choosing Between James Conner and Nick Chubb

[Timestamp: 51:33]

Question: "I can keep him forever. Do I keep James Conner or do I keep Nick Chubb? Full point PPR."
— Josh from Boston

Discussion:

• Andy Holloway leans towards Nick Chubb, citing his consistent performance and the stability of the Cleveland Browns' offensive scheme.

  "I think Nick Chubb's a more talented player."
  — Andy Holloway

• Mike Wright weighs in on James Conner’s contract situation but ultimately agrees with Holloway’s preference for Chubb based on long-term value and performance reliability.

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with the hosts reiterating the importance of strategic planning in draft selections and keeper choices. By identifying high-potential breakout players and addressing key fantasy football questions, the Fantasy Footballers provide listeners with the tools needed to build competitive and resilient fantasy teams for the upcoming NFL season.

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Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore on Chris Godwin’s Breakdown Confidence

  "Matt Harmon's reception perception says he's the easiest breakout to spot from a distance."
  [09:54]

• Mike Wright on D.D. Westbrook’s Favorable Factors

  "DD Westbrook, for me has so many things in his favor."
  [17:29]

• Andy Holloway on Miles Sanders’ Draft Value

  "The last seven years on average there's about two and a quarter of the top 12 running backs are rookies... Miles Sanders is a perfect shot to take."
  [22:11-22:35]

• Jason Moore on Aaron Jones’ Efficiency

  "He is an unbelievably effective, efficient, talented running back."
  [26:14]

• Mike Wright on Vance McDonald’s Breakout Potential

  "If he's playing, he's going to break out. It's going to happen."
  [32:38]

• Andy Holloway on Curtis Samuel’s Value in Late Rounds

  "What you're paying for Curtis Samuel in the seventh round is going to more than return the value."
  [35:59]

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the episode, highlighting key discussions, strategic insights, and notable quotes that provide valuable guidance for fantasy football enthusiasts.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Pristine Auction.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in. Welcome to the show. Show. It's Tuesday, August 20th. Another great podcast coming your way. We have breakouts. Now, we're not talking any old ordinary. I mean we've got our Ultimate Draft Kit and it's awesome.

[Jason Moore]

No, we're talking major and we've got.

[Andy Holloway]

Breakouts in the Ultimate Draft Kit.

[Mike Wright]

Well, you should just define it the Ultimate Draft Kit. At least, at least 2/3. Usually all three of us have to sign off on that player before they get into the Ultimate Draft Kit. Breakouts on the show is where we're allowed to let that personal bias seep out.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we're doing our own breakout picks on the show today are some of our favorite guys. So we got got some breakouts. NFL season's coming. Quick. Got a good quick question. We're excited I mentioned it. The Ultimate Draft Kit. If you need help on draft day, we've got an app this year. You can check it all out at ultimate draft kit.com A reminder, a dollar of every UDK sold goes directly to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. All the proceeds from this Saturday's live show in Phoenix going straight to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital as well. Been a great partner this year and.

[Mike Wright]

We know, look, we know the time of the year. You are consuming all fantasy football content that you can. If you've never been in the Ultimate Draft Kit. This thing is jam packed. It is bursting.

[Andy Holloway]

Is there an IV in there? Can you hook it up?

[Mike Wright]

You might need one after you're done going through all the information. I'm telling you, you log into this thing and it's, it's a research tool. This isn't just us saying, well, pick this guy. That's how you win. You want, you know how to win. You pick that guy. I mean, we're letting you research, trying to figure some things out for yourself as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. You can follow us on twitter@the ffballers. The fantasy footballers.com is the website. Here's the Quick question. It comes in from Corey in Hawaii.

[Mike Wright]

Bonjour, Corey.

[Andy Holloway]

Really? So non continental? You're throwing the non continental Bonjour.

[Jason Moore]

I totally get behind that. They're far enough away.

[Andy Holloway]

Bonjour, Mike didn't even think twice.

[Mike Wright]

No, I don't have to look when you.

[Andy Holloway]

Whenever I need your passport. Mike, you don't need your passport to go to Hawaii.

[Mike Wright]

Whenever I see the commercials letting me know that good deals are happening, they're like, sorry, Alaska and Hawaii.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, so you want to. You want to give them that foreign flair.

[Mike Wright]

That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

You.

[Mike Wright]

You also, you can get the ultimate draft kit for the regular price. It's not raised.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. How much do you guys factor in strength of schedule in your fantasy football rankings? Does it play a big role when it comes to fantasy success? What say you?

[Jason Moore]

I do not. It's something I've learned over the last few years to utilize less and less. I try to get more accurate, more predictive strength of schedules, and I do look at that when I go into every team. But over the last several years, I mean, if you're just picking and choosing, you can be like, oh, look, this team did really well and they had a great early season strength of schedule. But then you're just picking and choosing because what about the teams that did great and had a terrible strength of schedule every year? That's one of those data points that are wrong. So when it comes to the schedule, personally, I don't put too much weight on it. Obviously, you know, from before the schedule comes out, what divisions they're playing against. So you can tell if it's a little bit easier, a little bit more difficult. But I don't factor it in. Crazy. Where I do factor the schedule is week one defensive pickups. That's like, you know, I look at the early season schedule and think, how is a team going to get off to an easy start, a difficult start? Like I've mentioned, I'm not drafting the Jaguars defense, great defense. They play Kansas City Week 1. Not like I don't want to play them.

[Andy Holloway]

You're not taking that chance.

[Jason Moore]

I don't want to roster two defenses to start. So the Ravens who are at Miami, the Eagles home against the Redskins, Seahawks home against the Bengals, Cowboys home against the Giants. Those are like. I look at week one to make that determination.

[Andy Holloway]

I factor them immensely. When you talk about in season rankings, preseason draft rankings, I don't because of the fact that many times the players that I draft are not the. That's not the team I finished the year with either. So if I'm trying to overemphasize the season schedule, number one, I have to make assumptions about the fact that every defense is going to be the same thing that I think they're going to be, which is never the case. Number two, I'm going to keep those guys throughout the season so that I can utilize them in this dynamic, amazing playoff schedule. So no, when we do in season projections, that's what defines your week to week projection. As you start to see more and more about what these defenses can do, that affects the way your week to week rankings at the running back, the wide receiver position, obviously that plays a big role.

[Mike Wright]

I still look at early season though. In the udk, we break down full season and early season is included in that. And guys like Mark Ingram, he's not really a running back that I've been super interested in this offseason, I feel just okay taking him. But they have a great schedule to open things up. So maybe when I'm in those rounds where I'm looking at guys like Mark Ingram, I'm going to use that as a tiebreaker to know that Ingram should get off to a pretty nice start.

[Jason Moore]

So he play against Miami, right? Cardinals, the Kansas City Chiefs.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So I do look at the early ones. It's people want their fantasy playoff rankings, strength of schedule. Right now that part is going to be so different.

[Andy Holloway]

And to your point, I don't mind you looking at them. I think that's why we break it down like that. In the udk, we talked about streaming quarterbacks on the ranking show all the time. You don't want to same logic behind the defense. You don't want to go grab a quarterback that's got terrible perceived matchups. But even you looking at that, even what you believe about Ingram schedule could be wrong because defensive turnover and the expectations. So I mean, we saw that last year. Certain games you expected amazing top of the season. And it didn't happen for some players. So you just got to those first six weeks of the NFL. You're starting to learn about what defenses are. What.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. People ask, you know, what's a. Is there anything any time of the year where it's harder to rank? Week two, setting projections for players is extremely difficult. You might think, well, week one, no, it's week two. When you have that week one data, which is nothing, that is a nothing sample size. And it starts infecting your brain. I feel like, okay, well, I'm just gonna draw a conclusion that this team is washed Based off of the. Of the opening schedule.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's a good point. It's a good point. We're going to get right into it today. No news segment on the show. We do want to give a shout out to Sleeper. Check out the Sleeper app. Let's get into the breakouts.

[Jason Moore]

Breakouts.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. We get to bring a couple names each to the table here today. Players that were excited about. Players that there's a wide range of conviction when it comes to a breakout.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Everybody throws this word around all the time and you kind of have the, you know, the way Twitter is and with social media and it's hard to fly under the radar and be a.

[Mike Wright]

Breakout with the coverage that fantasy gets now. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So I think it's more important than to kind of qualify our breakouts more by our percentage of certainty. How strong do we believe in it? Because let's, let's face it, there are a lot of players that could break out. Maybe they got a 10% chance or a 20% chance. But I, you know, how sure are you sure. When you talk about your guys, talk about how positive you are that these players are going to have that breakout season.

[Mike Wright]

And it's not. All breakouts are not created equal. A guy that, that we like, you could say, oh, he's going to break out, but that just means now he's going from absolute nothingness where you've never even heard of this player's name to now. Now they're a wide receiver. 3. They're not burning down the house with fantasy points, but they are usable on a week to week basis. That's how I look at a breakout. As someone who had no value. And now almost weekly that this person.

[Andy Holloway]

Has value, I think that's fair. And I think a lot of the times it also represents a tear jump. You know, does the.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Does a player move into a tier that will be talking about them completely different in 2020?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, and I'm, I'll kick us off here because I am pretty darn confident and bullish on this player. I think the breakout is as likely as it was for me and my acne in high school. We're talking complete breakout.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, gross.

[Jason Moore]

You're welcome. You're welcome, everybody.

[Mike Wright]

Were you, were you a full face?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah, full face back. Sorry. My former colleagues, friends, family.

[Andy Holloway]

Present company excluded.

[Jason Moore]

We pulled through. We pulled through. We got for you super handsome. Now for those just listening. Yeah, look, early in the off season I talked about. Thanks, guys. I talked about Chris Godwin a lot in the early off season because I really, really believe in both the talent and the situation. When you bring those things together, I think you tear jump. I think you become a very reliable player. But we haven't really brought his name up that much in the last month or so.

[Andy Holloway]

Obviously around left that to everybody else.

[Jason Moore]

Right. I was going to say around the community. Plenty of buzz around Chris Godwin, but he's someone that I personally believe is a. Is a great wide receiver. So coming out of college, Matt Harmon said he was basically the best contested catch player he had ever tracked in the UDK this year. Matt Harmon's reception perception says he's the easiest breakout to spot from a distance. He literally on every single route. He is above the NFL average by a wide margin with the exception of one route. He's a tactician. He's got a great, you know, ability to grab the contested catches. And if you look at he's entering his year three. Right. Last year he became relevant. He was the wide receiver, 25. A top end wide receiver three. And that was while you had Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson taking a bunch of targets away. Now those two guys are gone. He's going to go way up in targets. And you have the addition of Bruce Arians installing his offense where we know from a large sample of history that the slot guy for Bruce Arians is great. Obviously it was great for Larry Fitzgerald. Larry Fitzgerald had a five year stretch with him where he was averaging 137 targets, 92 receptions, 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns. That's great. But it wasn't just there. And it was, you know, first ballot hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald, where he was the one. Look back to when he was with the Steelers and Bruce Arians had Heinz Ward, who was dominating in that area. Same, same kind of numbers. 130 target pace from 2008 and 2009. 88 receptions, 1100 yards, 6 and a half touchdowns. And that was on a team where he.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you just name another hall of Famer as your example for the other hall of Famer?

[Jason Moore]

I don't believe Heinz Ward is a Hall of Famer. He's not already in, is he?

[Andy Holloway]

I thought Heinz Ward was on his way.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I certainly did not name another First Battle hall of Famer. And who's to say Chris Godwin is not a future hall of Famer? Andy.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe, maybe that's last year Heinz Ward missed the hall of Fame cut for three straight years.

[Jason Moore]

There you go. But he wasn't the one.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, but was Chris Godwin in Batman.

[Andy Holloway]

Heinz Ward was in Batman.

[Jason Moore]

I did not. I did not know that. Okay, so sorry.

[Andy Holloway]

Thanks, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

We have deep rail Jason. But, but back then you still had San Antonio Holmes, who was, you know, in 2009, had more targets because a lot of, you know, it's like, well, you got Mike Evans, you still had heath Miller with 100 targets and the slot role was valuable. So I think it's the combination, right? You've got the talent of Chris Godwin, who's excellent. The camp buzz has been electric. Every highlight from him in camp and in preseason has been dominant. You've got the role, you've got the vacated targets. It's just kind of this whole picture where I think he's going to become a very relevant weekly player. And I think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to be seen similar to how we view the Minnesota Vikings. Right? You got Thielen, you got Diggs, you got Kyle Rudolph. And they're not a pass first team, but this is a pass first team that's got basically, you know, you've got Evans and Godwin and O.J. howard. And I think all three are going to be very fantasy relevant players this year.

[Mike Wright]

Jameis.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, that was a joke.

[Mike Wright]

Four snaps. Four snaps where Jameis Winston was playing. So 22 snaps. This is from Adam Leviton. Chris Godwin has been on the field for all 22 and he's been in the slot for eight of them. So they're. He's gonna, he's a full time player, which we already knew that. But they are moving him around and they're putting him in the slot.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think, I think the only difference between some of the examples that you gave is a player with a history of success in the NFL from a fantasy perspective or a career perspective. I think Godwin can do it. I think you saw the ups and downs of being with Jameis Winston last year. I mean, he, if you look at the consistency chart for Godwin As a 22 year old, you know, you might not want to look too much because he had some rough weeks, but of course I think he's going to. He was a fringe kind of player that you were willing to put in the lineup last year. Everybody's been on the bandwagon this offseason. So then it's just an ADP situation from a fantasy owner perspective. But that, that doesn't preclude him from breaking out, even if he's too expensive right now.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, I just think his floor is, is very high now. And so where he's at in adp, I'm fine taking him there because I think he's going to be a.

[Andy Holloway]

So you are. You're fine taking him at his current.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Average draft position?

[Jason Moore]

100%.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

408 right now. So you have to choose between Robert woods and Chris Godwin in every draft that you're in. Which one do you choose?

[Jason Moore]

Because I don't ever choose between Robert woods and anybody else.

[Andy Holloway]

Godwin or Golladay?

[Jason Moore]

Godwin.

[Andy Holloway]

Godwin or Lockett? Another friend. Friend of yours.

[Jason Moore]

Lockett was almost my breakout, but I feel like he's already broke out. I love Lockett.

[Andy Holloway]

He really does.

[Jason Moore]

I really do.

[Mike Wright]

I'm right now very strange what has happened here.

[Jason Moore]

I'm telling you guys, Lockett's in for a huge season this year. Breakout 2 point B.

[Andy Holloway]

2 point B. Okay, Mike, why don't you take the reins, all right.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to jump in. We've talked about him a little bit more and more over these past weeks. I really think he's going to break out. And that is wide receiver from the Jacksonville Jaguars, Dede Westbrook. Look, Nick Foles. He is now the quarterback for the Jaguars. And Nick Foles has targeted players lined up in the slot at the sixth highest rate over the last two seasons. Blake Bortles, not so much. The slot is not his favorite wide receiver. Last year in five stars Nick Foles completed over 72% of his passes. He was fantastic. Blake Bortles was at his career best at 60.3. DD Westbrook still managed to be a wide receiver 33 in half point PPR. He had 101 targets. There's only 28 players last year that saw 100 or more targets. And you want to talk about vacated targets. Jacksonville the third most over 50%. Moncrief and his 89 targets are gone. TJ Yeldin and his 78 targets, they are gone. Jacksonville did not make a big splash addition. You got Chris Conley, he's a fine player. But. But that's not the open the Raiders going out and saying we have a problem. We're bringing in Antonio Brown and they added in pass Happy Quarter Coordinator DeFilippo as their OC. He had great red zone usage. His his red zone target percentage is just is in line with Stefan Diggs. So here's what I see. Here's the three bullet, three pronged approach for DD Westbrook.

[Andy Holloway]

There's bullets, there's prongs. This is all sorts of things in threes to support this argument.

[Mike Wright]

Now that I'm looking at it, maybe it's four, but maybe whatever. Maybe it's three. Look, there will be. There's the natural rise of targets for the third year player because of the vacated targets. He will get increase in usage just from the natural tendency of his quarterback. He will see an increase of catchable targets just because of better quarterback play. And then there's the possibility of targets going up because they brought in a pass. Happy OC There are for a lot of breakout players, you're looking at one or two stabilizing forces. Like these are the two reasons I'm buying into this player. DD Westbrook for me has. Has so many things in his favor.

[Andy Holloway]

Who do you have more confidence in to get the ball to? Their slot receiver, Jameis Winston or Nick Foles? Honestly, Nick Foles. Nick Foles, yeah, it's both players. I mean it's compelling arguments for both players because they're very similar. Last year, last year, total fantasy points, they were almost the exact same. Chris Godwin and D.D. westbrook. People don't realize that there is a four round difference right now in Godwin and I think it comes a little bit with the high flying.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Ceiling we've seen from Winston. And then Arians and Tampa Bay will.

[Mike Wright]

Have a better offense.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Overall, I'm not saying that.

[Andy Holloway]

And, but right now Dede's in the eighth round, whereas maybe not anymore, but whatever.

[Mike Wright]

But yeah, and this is not. I'm calling for Dee Dee to break out to be a top 12 guy, but I think DD Westbrook can easily find himself into the top 24 if he's getting the same target market share or the increased market share because Nick Foles is there. DD Westbrook is going to be an excellent PPR guy.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. My breakout, it's actually our breakout. I think we threw him into the UDK over the last month. Miles Sanders, running back for the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm in love with the draft price. I'm in love with the player. When we went through all of these different dynasty rookie drafts over the last, you know, three or four months ago, it was that tough decision. Okay, Jacobs, Jacobs was going ahead of both these guys. And then do you go David Montgomery, who has a great opportunity there in Chicago, or do you go with Miles Sanders and it didn't feel great going with Miles Sanders in the beginning. Banged up, injured Jordan Howard's there. They bring back Sprols, they bring back, you know, they have this plethora of running backs but now, you know, you look at the draft cost between Miles Sanders and David Montgomery, you look at what you think the offense is going to be. Yes, we can. We can be big naggy fans in Chicago. Their offense wasn't that good. Right. It wasn't an upper echelon offense compared to what Philadelphia has shown and is capable of being. So I think the offense is better in Philly. So the question then is, hey, will Miles Sanders be given enough work to justify drafting him, playing him? Is he a startable RB2 since Chip Kelly jettison LaShawn McCoy after the 2014.

[Mike Wright]

Season, the Eagles go back to Chip.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the Eagles have had a different leading rusher every single season since DeMarco Murray, Ryan Matthews, LeGarrett Blunt, Josh Adams.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, Ryan Matthews. But I miss you.

[Andy Holloway]

I know, but. But Miles Sanders is the highest draft capital pick the Eagles have had since Lashawn McCoy. This is a second round pick with a three down skill set. So you look at a few things in the preseason. I say don't look at stat lines. Right. You look at what the player does and to me he's checking every box. Here's box one. Jason, you said step one on any yesterday on the show. Number one thing that can happen to a running back in the preseason is not play. Yes, that's assuming you're at the top of the depth chart. Next best case is to get the first snap. Well, Miles Sanders got the first snaps ahead of Jordan Howard in preseason week two. Did a lot with them. He also, if you watch the film, showed that he could pick up the blitz. He had a couple of great blitz pickups. Something that they're concerned about to get him on the field to be a three down type of guy. Great vision, great ability to change direction in the open field. More explosive than any other back that they have on their roster. This is a guy who ran a 4, 4 9. If you watch the combine video of him and Saquon, he's got Saquon beat for the first third of that 40 times.

[Mike Wright]

What about the two thirds?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that was sake 1, but 4, 4 9. Okay, so you're not talking about a huge gap.

[Mike Wright]

You could have gone with the fact that that Miles Sanders had more rushing yards before entering the draft than in his final season than Barkley at the same exact position.

[Andy Holloway]

This is just a really, really good player and really, really good Rookie running backs do things in fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I was going to say.

[Mike Wright]

Second round pick in the NFL draft.

[Jason Moore]

You know, the last seven years on average there's about two and a quarter of the two and a quarter out of the top 12 running backs are rookies every single year at the running back position. Miles Sanders is a perfect shot to take, a perfect guy to take the shot on because he doesn't cost you much and he's in the situation where he could absolutely emerge. I really like the pick of Miles Sanders.

[Andy Holloway]

And you think about the player players he's around. Eckler, Cohen, Miller, you're talking about a different ceiling. Miles Sanders.

[Mike Wright]

Before we get to our next set of players, want to thank today's sponsor, NFL Game Pass. Only with the NFL Game Pass do you get every out of market preseason game live. Can the Browns show early signs of being a playoff contender? Do the Cowboys have all the pieces in place?

[Andy Holloway]

Go watch Miles Sanders pick up a.

[Mike Wright]

Blitz to make a run in the nfc. Watch Miles Sanders pick up a blitz. I would. We are in the NFL Game Pass every single day right now. We're going into preseason. We're using that condensed, the condensed version of the games. It's incredible. You take in an entire football game in about 30 to 45 minutes or. Yeah, 30 to 45 minutes. You can watch whatever you need to watch right now.

[Jason Moore]

Being able to push a left arrow key and just watch a play over and over and over. So great.

[Mike Wright]

It's the Game Pass. It's a great product. It's. And it's awesome being able to watch every single preseason game. Make sure to see all the action this preseason with NFL Game Pass. You can kick off the 2019 NFL season with a seven day free trial when you sign up [e-mail] fantasy footballers. That's NFL.com fantasy footballers. Make sure you get in on it before preseason. Week three is opponents and we want.

[Jason Moore]

To thank adt, a proud sponsor of the fantasy footballers. Real Protection from ADT is personalized smart home security with a system that fits your unique needs. They are the latest in the innovation in smart home security from adt. Everything from HD video, doorbells, high def, indoor and outdoor cameras, smart locks and lights, even the smart thermostats, all controlled by the ADT app or the sound of your voice. But real protection doesn't stop there. You can take ADT peace of mind with you on the go with the ADT Go app that features location sharing, safe driving reports and an emergency SOS button. Real Protection is a team of professionals who help safeguard your home with rapid connection to first responders 24 7. That's how ADT, the nation's number one smart home security Provider helps keep your home and your family safe wherever you go. Real protection with ADT. To learn more, visit ADT.com podcast All.

[Andy Holloway]

Right, we've got another breakout. Each of us has another breakout for you. Who's going.

[Mike Wright]

It's Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason's turn.

[Jason Moore]

Look, this guy is. It's a little dicey, right? And by its, I mean hamstrings. Hamstrings are a little dicey here. But I am willing to still say that I believe that there will be a breakout from Aaron Jones if I have to put my money on whether or not he's going to have a great season and be a valuable fantasy asset or whether he's going to flame out and be in a timeshare that doesn't work and not get the job and disappoint people at his adp. I'm definitely taking the Aaron Jones side when I'm on the clock at his adp. It is very difficult to pass a guy who could be a top five, top ten fantasy back. This is where if he does break out, it's not just a. Oh, you get to, you get to play him every now and then. You get to have him be a regular, you know, contributor to your fantasy team. This is a guy who could help win you a title. Aaron Jones, running back for the Green Bay Packers. You could argue he already broke out, right? Because if you look at last year.

[Mike Wright]

A little bit, he got, he got like an arm and a leg through, right?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm picturing Jurassic Park. Yes. The velociraptor coming out of the eg.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. Exactly what I meant. Thank you, guys.

[Andy Holloway]

It's kind of a velociraptor on the field.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, his colleagues have said so.

[Jason Moore]

He missed the first couple weeks last year. This is a little history lesson here. He missed the first couple weeks and then he got in about week three, but he didn't really take the starting job over until week seven from that point.

[Mike Wright]

Thanks, Mike McCarthy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I know it was ridiculous, but from that point forward, from week seven until he was out the end of the year, which is seven games, he was the running back. 10. He was a. He was an RB1 during that stretch. And that was for the team with the fewest carries in the National Football League, the Green Bay packers, with the absolute lowest total in their history of their storied franchise at running the ball. He is an unbelievably effective, efficient, talented running back. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry last year, which is probably unsustainable despite the fact that his rookie year he also averaged 5.5 yards of carry. He's great in the passing game and that's something they want to get him more involved with. So we've seen it on the field already that Aaron Jones is electric. He's great. He's been a top 10 running back for a stretch of seven weeks. But now you enter in Matt LaFleur, the new head coach coming over from Tennessee. The last two years, he's been in charge of two different offenses. Both offenses were top 10 in rushing attempts, top 10 in rushing yards. And so now it's like, oh, if you just take. I went back and I looked at every single box score the whole year that Aaron Jones was in there, whether he was a starter, whether he wasn't. And I looked at how did that break down on the carries? Were they giving him the ball? Were they giving it to Jamal Williams? Was Aaron Rodgers rushing the ball? If he got the exact same rate that everybody was upset with last year and you, you, you tell them, you tell me that they're going to Finish as the 16th most rushing attempts. You just take the number from last year. That would be 224 carries. That would end up going specifically to Aaron Jones. He is an Alvin Camara type of player.

[Mike Wright]

He's not getting 224 carries.

[Jason Moore]

No, but my point is that would just be his already his workload last year, that percentage of market share in that backfield. If they weren't dead last in the NFL and rushing attempts and they were just 16th in the NFL. I'm saying that that would be 225 rushing attempts. And if you gave him that kind of volume, he would be a breakout that, you know, Alvin Camara has never had 200 rushing attempts and he's that type of a player. Plus, a lot of the story from preseason training camp was wanting to get him involved in the passing game. We talk about it a lot in fantasy. A pass, a target is worth a whole lot more than a rushing attempt. So you've got the talent, you've got the quarterback, you've got the team, you've got a head coach coming in that wants to run the ball more. If his hamstrings were fine, I think you'd be seeing him at the like 2, 3 turn in fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I think the question marks is that it's not necessarily an asset to repeat the fact that they were dead last in rushing. Because Aaron Rodgers team, this is why. I mean, Aaron Jones was written on my board as one of My guys for about four months on the. On the board, I got a little hesitant. Now, it's a strong counterpoint to say, hey, when Matt lafor has been involved in an offense, they generally are in that upper echelon of rushing attempts. But you still have to hope that that team gets there. It's not like imbuing, you know, the Seahawks, and they're what they've already proven they have to go do it.

[Mike Wright]

Derek Henry was only. He had 215 attempts last year. He's been there. He was on the Tennessee Titans, the OC for two years, and they were split backfields the entire time.

[Andy Holloway]

That's. My confidence is, like, lower on Jones than it was. I love the talent, but if push comes to shove, I know for a fact Aaron Rodgers will throw the football. That's. That's. He will take over the team. And so that gave me a little bit of pause about declaring a breakout. But I want to have some fun with this. Let's go back through the first guys. I want to get a percentage chance of that. Percentage chance that they give you a season that fantasy owners will look at and say, that was a breakout season. And then I'll let you do that with Aaron Jones, too. But Godwin, what percentage chance do you think that fantasy owners will look back after the year and say, chris Godwin was a breakout?

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to say a 66% chance.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Two thirds. Mike, you. You brought up the name DD Westbrook. What percentage chance do you attribute?

[Mike Wright]

I was going to say 65.

[Andy Holloway]

Much different. Much different.

[Jason Moore]

I'm more confident than you, Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

My first one was Miles Sanders.

[Mike Wright]

Less expensive.

[Andy Holloway]

If I'm wrong, I'm about 75% with Miles Sanders. I thought that was going to end up low because I thought you guys were more confident in your picks, but whatever.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just. I'm. I'm just leaving margin for error, my man.

[Andy Holloway]

That's. And that's. That's your prerogative, Aaron Jones. Jason, based on what you're saying, and we've all seen the talent, what is your confidence level in Aaron Jones having a breakout season?

[Jason Moore]

It is. It is more than 50%. It is less than 60%. I would go ahead and say.

[Andy Holloway]

See, that's a proper. Brooks, how you doing?

[Jason Moore]

Excellent.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. That was a proper. He gave me the time to find the button. He didn't just throw, like, the Josh Stallion thing out there, and then I'm scrambling. I just want you to learn. I do what I can. Okay. All right. So anything you want to add to Aaron Jones. I know that we both shed a little bit of doubt on there. You have.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the only thing I would add as a counterpoint to your argument about, you know, them. Them not running the ball. They've always. Green Bay, with Aaron Rodgers, has always been fine at running the ball. Last year was this weird aberration where they just decided, we're not going to run the ball at all. We're going to throw it all the time. There were games last year where I was. I was tracking this data. Let me see if I can find it real quick. Where I think they had, like, 11 or 13 carries. Whole game, like they just did.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what freaks me out.

[Jason Moore]

But that was.

[Mike Wright]

That was different regime.

[Andy Holloway]

If that's in the realm of possibilities for a team, though, it just. It gives you less confidence in consistency. Maybe the breakout games are there, but wouldn't that make you. That's never going to happen in Seattle, ever.

[Mike Wright]

If McCarthy were the coach, then you could bring that up and say this.

[Jason Moore]

I'm concerned about the time at which something like that happens. Yeah. Thirteen carries in a game. Those are so incredibly rare for an NFL franchise that a guy coming in who's been top 10 in Russia could tips the last two years. I can't fathom him going, yeah, we're going to do the same thing.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Mike, who's your next breakout? All right, give me your percentage.

[Mike Wright]

I will give you my percentage. Look, well, whatever. We'll just start with the percentage. It's 85%.

[Jason Moore]

Whoo.

[Mike Wright]

Because I'm taking Vance McDonald. Oh, it's happening, people. We are going to be doing the Vance dance. Adp, be darned. This thing is happening.

[Andy Holloway]

You. You struggle with this.

[Mike Wright]

I did.

[Andy Holloway]

In the. In the studio, you're just like. Eventually you wrote the name down because the average opposition has. It's been a. Has been bothering you.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

It's been troubling. It's made you not want to lean in, not get behind it all the way. Even though you know in the deep parts of your soul, it doesn't matter.

[Mike Wright]

This is happening. Vance McDonald is finally breaking out. The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost over 35% of their targets between Antonio Brown and the largest competition, just positionally speaking, tight end Jesse James, he is no longer there. Yes, people, we want to point out the Pittsburgh Steelers probably have some regression coming to their passing attempts. Ben is not going to throw the ball 675 times. I agree. In 2017, Big Ben was on a pace for 598 attempts. The year before that 582. The year before that 625. They're still going to throw the ball a ton, even if it's not at 675 times. Pittsburgh has been incredibly patient, more patient than I could imagine with Vance McDonald. When they traded for him, his contract was bloated. That's why San Francisco wanted to get rid of him. His injury history. But they have sat and they have waited. We have seen. We have already seen Vance McDonald take over a game for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the highest possible time. A playoff game against Jacksonville two years ago. 16 targets, 10 receptions, 112 yards. And yeah, it's just one game. I get it. But my point is we've seen him take over a game. Heath Miller, when. When Big Ben actually had a pass catching tight end, it was Heath Miller. This was a while ago. He regularly saw excellent target shares, including Jason, funny enough, the year you brought up when all three of them had over 100 targets. Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, Heath Miller.

[Andy Holloway]

You realize Jesse James started last year with the week one. He was the number eight tight end. Week two is the number two tight end.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, look, because Big Ben utilizes the tight end position. And now that position belongs to Vance McDonald. Over the last two years, only Travis Kelce has more broken tackles at the position. Travis Kelce is a full time tight end. Vance McDonald has not been. Over the last two years only George Kittle has it better yards after catching last year. 12th Most receptions at the tight end. 11th Most yards at the tight end position. He was the tight end 10 and half point PPR scoring as a part time player. What do I mean, Andy? By a part time player, he averaged 55% of the snaps.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, it didn't look like not enough.

[Mike Wright]

Right tight. But tight end 10 with 55% of the of the snapshot. He's not playing. No 55% of Pittsburgh snaps at the position this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Can he stay healthy?

[Mike Wright]

I may be. Whatever. Like everyone can get hurt.

[Jason Moore]

That's the 15% sure. Off the 85.

[Mike Wright]

If he's playing, he's going to break out. It's going to happen.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. 85%. That's our highest thus far. I'm at about 80% on my pick. So I think Vance wins the day in terms of certainty factor. And it's Curtis Samuel. You've heard a lot about Curtis Samuel. It all comes down to one thing for Curtis Samuel this season, which is to stay healthy. He's 23 years old. He's poised to make the leap. He's the talk of camp. He's an athletic freak that had transitioned from being kind of a running back hybrid guy into the wide receiver position. But he missed 10 games through the first two seasons due to injury. So his health is the key to him actually paying off for you. But right now, what I love about Curtis Samuel, in part for the fantasy side, is you got to pay two more rounds to get DJ Moore. And I think much like, you know, we've talked a little bit about Galladay and Marvin Jones and like the, the round gap is so significant between the two that there's going to be Jones weeks. And I don't dislike DJ Moore at all. I think DJ Moore has a great ceiling in the offense as well. But you have a, you have a healthy Cam Newton and his main targets are going to be DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel in this offense, along with Christian McCaffrey, obviously. So you look at where does Curtis Samuel win on the football field? And this is apart from the preseason height. This is apart from him being arguably the best player in camp. He wins at every single level, in every single route. If you look at reception perception, 74.6% success rate against man coverage, that's the 94th percentile. He's a player that you can get the ball to him downfield, you can get it to him in the screen game and he can, you know, joystick his way through the defense. And he converted 73% of his contested catches as well. I just think what you're paying for Curtis Samuel in the seventh round is going to more than return the value on Curtis Samuel in 2017.

[Jason Moore]

This has been the off season of Curtis Samuel.

[Mike Wright]

It really has been.

[Jason Moore]

He's one. I don't think any player from front to back from the very beginning to right now has had more buzz and more just people going goo goo bananas over his performance in camp. Performance on the field, he's just been outstanding. It is sad that, that he's all of a sudden, I mean, we were looking at ADP the other day and you know, I'm still a believer that Dante Pettis can break out. And Curtis Samuel was going ahead of Dante Pettis. Now in these drafts, he has skyrocketed because for the longest time he was still 13th round, 12th round. Then he got buzzed, then it was like 10th round. Now he's up to the seventh. I just hope it slows down. Thanks to you, Andy probably won't.

[Mike Wright]

I will add this in people who are in the, in the realm, we're all consuming this content Right now, you're listening to this podcast. You know who Curtis Samuel is. You may have to pay that adp. I'm telling you, in the majority of, like, home leagues, casual leagues, which a lot of our listeners play in, you're going to get him really, really late. We just did a draft, that celebrity draft we did with Juju and Ninja and Pals, we got Curtis Samuel super late. They were all sleeping on Curtis Samuel still. So I think there is still the. There's still this world that exists where guys like Curtis Samuel, the majority of your league, won't know who he is.

[Andy Holloway]

He didn't play at the beginning of last year. And honestly, for fantasy awareness, that front half of the year matters a lot more than the back half. For a lot of, like, fantasy owners to come around on who the player is. I mean, over the back half, he had a handful of these weeks where, you know, he was a wide receiver, two, three, fringe guy. He had a top ten week against Tampa. But that first half, I mean, he was nowhere. Nobody knows who you are. So he hasn't really. And he's so young, so he hasn't had the opportunity to kind of get in the limelight for, like you said, for home leagues or for people that DJ more the draft Capital more recently drafted high in the draft. So I. I think he's just going to be a very interesting guy and I think they're going to involve him heavily in the offense now that he's healthy. So I've got him at about 80%. I don't think there's a way a healthy Curtis Samuel isn't paying out. Even the seventh round, he keeps climbing up. You know, I still take the cheaper of the two. If you believe Cam Newton is going to be back and healthy and doing what he does.

[Jason Moore]

I do.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, that is it for breakouts today, you guys. You want to jump in the mailbag?

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Mailbag. Mailbag.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. If you have a question for the fantasy footballers, you can click the Submit a question button on the website. You can dial the voicemail hotline. 302464, TFFB. Our first question, Mike, is going to say, pointing at me.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I loved Jason's breakout. He referenced the acne. I was like, there's. There's a movie. I know there's a movie.

[Jason Moore]

You're thinking of Outbreak.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, well, there's. It's a. Seems like it would be a common name, but the only thing I could really find was the Smash hit from 2013, breakout starring Brendan Fraser. You Guys, remember that?

[Andy Holloway]

I remember when he broke out with the mummy. Yeah. What? He broke out with Encino Man. You're right. You're right. He broke out in my life with the mummy.

[Mike Wright]

That's fine. I'm just saying.

[Andy Holloway]

And then he. Then what is it? What is the opposite of a breakout break down, disappear down Houdini. Yeah, well, he's not exactly in the limelight anymore.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, not really.

[Jason Moore]

He's gonna come back.

[Mike Wright]

I still love him.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Matt in Chicago. Hey ballers, would you ever pass up a player in an earlier round because you are targeting. Targeting his teammates in a later round and don't want the stack? What perfect timing on that question. Would you pass on DJ Moore in the fifth because you want to grab Curtis Samuel in the seventh round and I would, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

There are certain players that I find myself the more mocks I do. You know, another example would be maybe I don't take Kenny Galladay earlier when. When maybe he is in consideration because I often get Marvin Jones later in a draft if there is a player that I like targeting late because of the nebulous situation of his team. I don't usually pay for the earlier one.

[Mike Wright]

But you also have to do that draft soul searching inside where if you miss out on both of these players. Now is that okay or are you. You're locked in. I got to have a piece of this offense because if you bypass the early one, there's no guarantee unless you massively reach for the second player.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. It's an interesting question and it varies quite a bit with, you know, are these guys around or two apart or are you talking about, you know, around three guy or a round nine guy or something of that nature. All right, voicemail question. Hey ballers, this is Kyle in New Jersey. I have a commissioner question. We're going to start doing keepers in my league starting 2020. Just wanted to know your thoughts on the best way to determine keeper costs in the draft and how to handle.

[Mike Wright]

Players that are taking off waivers during the season.

[Andy Holloway]

Love the show guys. Thanks a lot. Hotly debated topic from time to time here on the show. Answer number one is there's no right way to do it. I mean we, we have a league that there is no cost. You just pick three keepers. But you can't keep the same position. I mean we. People do it differently in each and every league. I know that Jason has strong feelings about not allowing like some leagues do waiver wire guys for the last round pick.

[Mike Wright]

Don't do that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's. You Know a lot of times you'll, you'll do something where you, you establish your keepers, you can keep them at whatever you drafted them. And every year or two it goes up two rounds or something like that. If you got them off the waivers, then it's your last round pick. That was like the default several years ago when keeper systems were just being made so it was really common. And then you know, after 2014, Odell Beckham Jr. Who was a waiver wire guy, who was a top, you know, five pick the next season was just completely free even though nobody in your league.

[Mike Wright]

And then it was David, then it was David Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So to me, I love, I personally love the forced strategy on a league where it's like if you don't draft the player, if the league doesn't draft them so they cannot be kept, they're just not eligible to be kept. They back in the draft. Andy doesn't like that. I love that. Like that is my preferred method.

[Andy Holloway]

So you don't get rewarded for being in a keeper league. You can't pick up a guy and.

[Mike Wright]

What'S the cost then?

[Andy Holloway]

I think you can do it a number of ways. You could do it two rounds behind adp, one round behind adp. How about this? Inventing it on the spot. What if what you paid in fab form you got to give up if you want to keep them. You get, you give up your last round pick plus the fab you spent on that player if it's a free agent pickup. Here's the thing. If a player isn't of any cost, people trade keepers so that that guy has a different value. Right. You can go trade for David Johnson and he has no cost, so he's got a different elevated value. It just depends on how you want to play. I can't imagine just telling people the more fun way to play fantasy football is if you pick a guy off up a waivers. In our keeper league, you can't keep him.

[Jason Moore]

No, it's not, I don't think it takes any fun away because it's not like you don't get a keeper now. You've got to keep the guys that you drafted or that were drafted.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean the reality badge of honor though where you have a guy that you picked up off of waivers, you're like, man, I saw that Philip Lindsay before anybody else. I saw George Kittle before anybody else.

[Jason Moore]

And that's why I drafted him is what I would say.

[Andy Holloway]

No, you didn't draft them. You waiver picked him.

[Jason Moore]

I know, but then it's. You're. We're talking about draft cost, right? So like you're rewarding. I think that the point of the. For the. Where you draft. For the draft cost. The point is rewarding the owners who found those guys in your draft late and made the decision to spend the draft equity on that guy. I got Curtis Samuel on the 13th in an early, you know, off season draft and you're rewarding their insight at the draft.

[Andy Holloway]

I didn't think keepers was about the draft only. I thought it was about the league.

[Mike Wright]

I side more with Andy on the philosophy of you got to find a way to be. To let players keep them and it's. It's ADP minus around for me.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that's a.

[Mike Wright]

You're rewarded. You, you get someone's like David Johnson or James Connor. This past year you picked him up off of waivers, right? And this wasn't even after week one.

[Andy Holloway]

Nice move, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I know.

[Andy Holloway]

Picking him up.

[Mike Wright]

Look, and he. You shouldn't be allowed to keep James Connor for free. Should be ADP minus a round so.

[Jason Moore]

You'D get him for a second round, second round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Parker in North Phoenix. Why is no one even drafting Tony Pollard anywhere comparatively? Shouldn't he be getting drafted somewhere behind or between Austin Eckler and Justin Jackson? I'm aware they're not in the same offensive systems and Eckler has standalone value, but doesn't Pollard deserve to at least be drafted and if so, where? We haven't talked a lot about Tony.

[Mike Wright]

We talked about him on yesterday's mock draft show at the very end. And yes, I believe he, he should be drafted very, very late. You'll find out soon. You'll know before week one if Zeke is going to come back. The difference between the Cowboys and the Chargers, I think nationally and just talk to fantasy people. Melvin Gordon's. His holdout threats are real. I don't believe Zeke is actually going to hold out. I think he will be back before week one. Melvin Gordon, though. I believe we'll take it to the limit and he'll sit out as many games as he thinks he can get away with without having to toll his contract over. That's the difference.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't believe that Zeke will do that?

[Mike Wright]

I don't.

[Andy Holloway]

I believe it's possible. I believe it's. I think it's possible that Zeke.

[Mike Wright]

Then why aren't you drafting Tony Pollard?

[Andy Holloway]

I didn't say not to. Oh, I didn't say anything about it yet. But I think, I think Tony Pollard is a little bit. I think the team likes him. I don't think he can handle the.

[Mike Wright]

Full workload, but he doesn't have to. He just has to handle it. The couple weeks that Zeke is gone.

[Andy Holloway]

I've drafted Tony Pollard in best ball leagues the same way I'm drafting Darwin Thompson. But I do, I'm just saying I think Zeke, Zeke believes that Zeke is the be all end all for that team. And now you've got back and forth between Jerry Jones and Ezekiel Elliott about the little quip about Zeke who. And look, you get too contentious. Pride is a powerful thing. We've seen things go from logic. Logic says you can't hold out. Your contract says this. Pride says something else.

[Jason Moore]

That quip as you call it, where Jerry Jones was like zeke who? And then Zeke's camp said that they were offended by that and all that. What it reminded me of in a little bit of a scary way was when the Bleacher Report article came out last year from inside the Pittsburgh Steelers locker room where the players were saying, hey, where is Lev Bell? I don't like that he's not here. We're fine with James Conner and love. Bell took that to heart and he was like, that's when everything flipped. And that's exactly what you're talking about, Andy. It takes it from logic to pride. And so yeah, it's scary. But to answer the listeners question as to why are they gapped, it's because right now the expectation is that Gordon will miss more games than Zeke.

[Andy Holloway]

Tony Pollard looked great in preseason week two. I will say that a couple impressive runs. Cole in Wisconsin. Hey fellows, love the show. Is there a remedy or punishment for people who take way too long to respond to trade proposals or at times even let the trade expire?

[Mike Wright]

I don't think there's a remedy.

[Andy Holloway]

Different strokes for different folks. Some people don't not as active or.

[Mike Wright]

At least not a punishment. You can't punish these people. But the remedy is building up conversation in your league. We bring up that one of the most important things for your league is an actual communication hub and a communication hub where people go regularly. Are you in the Facebook generation? Make a Facebook group. Are you in the Twitter generation? Make a Twitter DM group that every. You know that people are gonna log into it once a day and they'll see the notification. So that would be my advice. That's how you try and remedy that is get everyone talking.

[Jason Moore]

Alternatively tasers.

[Andy Holloway]

That is another option.

[Jason Moore]

I mean you got to have complete league buy in from all parties. But if you don't respond, you get tasered.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's something that you've experimented with. No, just a piggyback Mike. You can also one to one these. I mean, you want to never piggyback. You want to get a trade done. Talk to the person. Just to speak to the communication thing. A lot easier to send out a bunch of blind deals and be mad that people don't respond. It's harder to send a note and say, hey, do you want to do a trade?

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

I almost never offer a trade through the system. You know, just click, click and send. I'll text the person.

[Andy Holloway]

That makes one of us.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And I guess. I guess to be fair, you get the most trades to go through. So maybe I need to just start sending out.

[Andy Holloway]

No, people thought. People stop listening to me. Those shotgun trays worked before I had this stupid podcast. Let's get one more voicemail, then we'll wrap it up.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, guys. Love the show.

[Andy Holloway]

This is Josh from Boston Keeper question. I can keep him forever. Do I keep James Connor or do I keep Nick Chubb? Full point ppr. Appreciate the answer. Thanks so much.

[Jason Moore]

Nick Chubb, James Conner. The difference between whether you can keep them forever or not doesn't make any difference to me.

[Mike Wright]

I'm only thinking for a couple years, man. I struggled with that mightily when I was over the weekend looking at my dynasty rankings of who would I rather have, James Conner or Nick Chubb, and it got to the point of off the top of my head, I can't even tell you where I landed.

[Andy Holloway]

I think Nick Chubb's a more talented player.

[Mike Wright]

I won't necessarily.

[Andy Holloway]

That leans me that direction. It's not. It's not some slam dunk guarantee. I mean, Pittsburgh's had so much success with rushing leaders D'Angelo Williams and Lev Bell, and you know, they've had so much success, it's hard to bet against the guy in Pittsburgh. I just lean Chubb.

[Mike Wright]

Let me ask you this question, then. Is Kareem Hunt a Cleveland Brown next year?

[Andy Holloway]

Probably not, but there's a chance. Yeah, there's a chance. Yeah. And absolutely.

[Mike Wright]

So to me, then, if there. If you feel like there's a chance that Kareem Hunt is on the same team as Nick Chubb, and if that team, if they're going into the off season with both of those players on the team, it's going to. Both of them are going to be involved. This. It won't be what you. You're getting from Nick Chubb. These first eight games where he's just going to be a workhorse. And I believe that as long as James Conner is on the Steelers, he will be a workhorse.

[Andy Holloway]

The funny thing is, is if Connor is what you want him to be this year, we'll see if he plays through with his cheap contract for the next because he'll have one one season left, but he's going to get paid $758,000.

[Mike Wright]

My guess is if they offered James Conner the deal that they offered Le'Veon Bell, he would say, where's my pen?

[Andy Holloway]

I tend to agree with you. So seems like a slightly different situation.

[Mike Wright]

If they want to lock Connor up, I think they'll be able to do it.

[Andy Holloway]

Not going to have any more running backs in the NFL. They're just going to be all holding out because guess what? You don't get concussed if you hold out.

[Mike Wright]

That's true.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but you don't get paid.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that doesn't seem to bother anybody at all. Goodness. All right, that is it for today's episode of the show. Be sure to check out Pristine auction. Yesterday, assigned Mike Evans jersey or I'm sorry, assigned chrome speed mini helmet. Went for $79. There are hundreds of daily auctions from your favorite players, teams, pop culture, pristineauction.com use the registration code BALLERS and you'll get $5 off your first auction. Otherwise, we'll be back with you tomorrow. More sleepers, values and news.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. All right, we'll see you then. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.