Episode Summary: Fantasy Footballers - Breakout Picks + Player Questions, SOS

Release Date: August 20, 2019

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright dive deep into potential breakout players for the upcoming NFL season and address listener-submitted questions. The discussion is tailored to provide fantasy football enthusiasts with valuable insights, strategic advice, and actionable recommendations to enhance their fantasy teams.

Breakout Picks

The primary focus of the episode revolves around identifying breakout candidates—players expected to significantly outperform their draft positions this season. Each host presents their top choices, supported by statistical analysis and team dynamics.

1. Chris Godwin – 66% Confidence

[Timestamp: 09:55]

Jason Moore kicks off the breakout discussion with Chris Godwin, a wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Moore emphasizes Godwin's enhanced situation following the departure of key teammates:

"When you bring those things together, I think you tear jump. I think you become a very reliable player."
— Jason Moore

Godwin is lauded for his exceptional ability to make contested catches and his integration into head coach Bruce Arians' pass-heavy offense. With the Buccaneers now a pass-first team, Godwin is poised to receive a substantial increase in targets, making him a prime candidate for a breakout season.

2. D.D. Westbrook – 65% Confidence

[Timestamp: 30:29]

Mike Wright brings attention to D.D. Westbrook of the Jacksonville Jaguars, highlighting his potential rise due to improved quarterback play and vacated targets from departing players:

"There's the natural rise of targets for the third year player... he's going to be an excellent PPR guy."
— Mike Wright

Wright points out that Westbrook will benefit from an increase in targets as the Jaguars streamline their receiving corps, making him a valuable asset in PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues.

3. Miles Sanders – 75% Confidence

[Timestamp: 30:32]

Andy Holloway presents Miles Sanders, a running back for the Philadelphia Eagles, as a high-upside breakout pick. Sanders' impressive preseason performance and favorable offensive environment are key factors:

"It's a guy who ran a 4.49. If you watch the combine video of him and Saquon, he's got Saquon beat in the first third of that 40 times."
— Andy Holloway

Sanders is viewed as a cost-effective option with the potential to earn significant touches in the Eagles' dynamic backfield, positioning him as a strong RB2 with upside.

4. Aaron Jones – Confidence <60%

[Timestamp: 31:00]

Jason Moore discusses Aaron Jones from the Green Bay Packers, acknowledging his talent but expressing caution due to changes in team strategy under new head coach Matt LaFleur:

"I can't fathom him going, yeah, we're going to do the same thing."
— Jason Moore

While Jones demonstrated his capabilities last season, uncertainties regarding his workload and the Packers' offensive approach make this a more cautious recommendation.

5. Vance McDonald – 85% Confidence

[Timestamp: 32:38]

Mike Wright stands firmly behind Vance McDonald, the tight end for the Pittsburgh Steelers. McDonald's increased role following the departure of Antonio Brown and his proven ability to produce makes him a top breakout candidate:

"If he's playing, he's going to break out. It's going to happen."
— Mike Wright

Wright highlights McDonald's performances, including a standout playoff game against Jacksonville, as indicators of his potential to become a reliable fantasy starter.

6. Curtis Samuel – 80% Confidence

[Timestamp: 35:59]

Andy Holloway introduces Curtis Samuel from the Detroit Lions as a versatile player with breakout potential, contingent on his health:

"What you're paying for Curtis Samuel in the seventh round is going to more than return the value."
— Andy Holloway

Samuel's seamless transition to wide receiver and his high reception efficiency make him a valuable late-round pick with significant upside in PPR formats.

Player Questions (Mailbag)

The hosts transition to the Mailbag segment, addressing questions submitted by listeners. The discussions provide strategic insights on various fantasy football scenarios.

1. Keeper Costs and Strategies

[Timestamp: 42:35]

Question: "We're going to start doing keepers in my league starting 2020. Just wanted to know your thoughts on the best way to determine keeper costs in the draft and how to handle players that are taking off waivers during the season."
— Kyle in Chicago

Discussion:

• Jason Moore advocates for a system where only drafted players can be kept, eliminating the possibility of keeping waiver wire pickups.

  "I love the forced strategy on a league where it's like if you don't draft the player, if the league doesn't draft them so they cannot be kept, they're just not eligible to be kept, they're back in the draft."
  — Jason Moore

• Andy Holloway and Mike Wright discuss alternative methods, including ADP-based round penalties and monetary costs for keepers, ensuring that players acquired from waivers are priced appropriately.

2. Drafting Tony Pollard

[Timestamp: 46:31]

Question: "Why is no one even drafting Tony Pollard anywhere comparatively? Shouldn't he be getting drafted somewhere behind or between Austin Eckler and Justin Jackson? We haven't talked a lot about Tony."
— Parker in North Phoenix

Discussion:

• Mike Wright addresses concerns regarding Ezekiel Elliott's potential holdout, which affects Pollard's draft value.

  "Melvin Gordon's holdout threats are real. I don't believe Zeke is actually going to hold out."
  — Mike Wright

• Andy Holloway adds that Pollard has shown promise in preseason but remains cautious about his workload and team dynamics.

3. Remedies for Non-Responsive Trade Proposals

[Timestamp: 49:45]

Question: "Is there a remedy or punishment for people who take way too long to respond to trade proposals or at times even let the trade expire?"
— Matt in Wisconsin

Discussion:

• Mike Wright suggests establishing a dedicated communication platform (e.g., Facebook group, Twitter DM group) to enhance engagement and prompt responses.

  "The remedy is building up conversation in your league."
  — Mike Wright

• Jason Moore recommends direct outreach via personal messages rather than relying solely on the platform's trade system.

4. Choosing Between James Conner and Nick Chubb

[Timestamp: 51:33]

Question: "I can keep him forever. Do I keep James Conner or do I keep Nick Chubb? Full point PPR."
— Josh from Boston

Discussion:

• Andy Holloway leans towards Nick Chubb, citing his consistent performance and the stability of the Cleveland Browns' offensive scheme.

  "I think Nick Chubb's a more talented player."
  — Andy Holloway

• Mike Wright weighs in on James Conner’s contract situation but ultimately agrees with Holloway’s preference for Chubb based on long-term value and performance reliability.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with the hosts reiterating the importance of strategic planning in draft selections and keeper choices. By identifying high-potential breakout players and addressing key fantasy football questions, the Fantasy Footballers provide listeners with the tools needed to build competitive and resilient fantasy teams for the upcoming NFL season.

Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore on Chris Godwin’s Breakdown Confidence

  "Matt Harmon's reception perception says he's the easiest breakout to spot from a distance."
  [09:54]

• Mike Wright on D.D. Westbrook’s Favorable Factors

  "DD Westbrook, for me has so many things in his favor."
  [17:29]

• Andy Holloway on Miles Sanders’ Draft Value

  "The last seven years on average there's about two and a quarter of the top 12 running backs are rookies... Miles Sanders is a perfect shot to take."
  [22:11-22:35]

• Jason Moore on Aaron Jones’ Efficiency

  "He is an unbelievably effective, efficient, talented running back."
  [26:14]

• Mike Wright on Vance McDonald’s Breakout Potential

  "If he's playing, he's going to break out. It's going to happen."
  [32:38]

• Andy Holloway on Curtis Samuel’s Value in Late Rounds

  "What you're paying for Curtis Samuel in the seventh round is going to more than return the value."
  [35:59]

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the episode, highlighting key discussions, strategic insights, and notable quotes that provide valuable guidance for fantasy football enthusiasts.