
Fantasy Football Podcast for August 21st, 2018. On today’s show, we’re talking about Breakout players! Andy, Jason, and Mike deliver two players each that could break out in a big way for 2018 fantasy football. We also discuss the latest NFL News, inc
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Andy Holloway
Hey, all, before we start today's show, I want to get real with you with a message from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Your draft, it's here. You can have time with your friends. You can have fun with your friends. Well, let's remember to be smart this season. Remember that your reaction time slows way down when you are driving drunk or driving high. Do not kid yourself. If you feel different, you drive different. Learn more@nhtsa.gov and remember, drive high, you get a DUI.
Cortland Sutton
It's Cortland Sutton, wide receiver for the Denver Broncos, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers.
Jason Moore
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Andy Holloway
Breakout time, Doppler effect.
Jason Moore
Feel like we went around the world.
Andy Holloway
I'm excited. Should be fresh off the my guys episode Booty scooting Cam Newton on all your teams.
Cortland Sutton
Now. I'm sure he's. He's scooting on to. Scooting on to some starting rosters.
Andy Holloway
Well, we're gonna talk briefly about him and Christian McCaffrey in the news today, so hang tight for that. I got questions for both of you about the Panthers offense. We've also got a great quick question. Had a legend sign a contract. And today we're talking about breakouts. We're each bringing a couple breakout names forward for your consideration. Some guys, we think, have the opportunity to go from fantasy irrelevance to relevance.
Cortland Sutton
Or just take that.
Andy Holloway
Or take the next step. Exactly. Find us on twitter @the ffballers on YouTube. We are over there. You can watch the show. You can watch the very entertaining My guys drop from yesterday on the show. Believe that was cgi? No, that was.
Cortland Sutton
We filmed that. Okay. We just. We can do strange things with our bodies.
Andy Holloway
That's YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. The giveaway is footclangive away.com the sign DeAndre Hopkins jersey right now, Couple copies of Madden the UDK for life. And if you don't have the ultimate draft kit, by the way, if you already have it and you win this contest, we'll refund your money and then we'll give you a UDK for every year that you live. And then you bequeath it to your next of kin and you can check out the ultimate draft kit. Everything that's involved updated every single day@ultimatedraftkit.com One of the things I wanted to highlight today was the risk ratings. All of our projections and rankings. The tiered rankings inside the UDK include our risk rating, and that is a consensus assessment of risk for each and every player. When you build a fantasy team, your objective is to both give yourself upside and mitigate risk so that you have staying power to win your league. And that is one of the tools that we give you in the Ultimate Draft kit to help you assess risk. A lot of things go into that. Injury changes, consistency over time, what we expect from the depth chart, a lot of different things.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I mean, I say this every year. I think it helps especially the new listeners who have not yet won a championship. You do not win your championship at your draft. You build a foundation to make the moves in season. And part of the a good foundation is mitigating the risk. So I think that's worthy of pointing up. And also, if you were looking at today's episode, you know, we got our breakouts here. We have our breakouts in the Ultimate Draft kit, of course, our breakouts, our busts, our sleepers, our values. Today we're going to talk about the guys that we individually really believe in that might have a breakup versus the consensus guys in the UDK that we kind of more expect to. To have a breakup.
Andy Holloway
It's a great point, Jason.
Jason Moore
Oh, thanks.
Andy Holloway
Quick question of the day. Adrian Peterson, welcome back. He's been signed by the Washington Redskins. And so I'm calling this Quick question are yo Adrian.
Cortland Sutton
Oh, Adrian.
Andy Holloway
He's been signed by the Redskins. They're depleted by way of running back Darius Geist, injured Byron Marshall, Samaj P. Ryan, banged up. So they signed the. The elder statesman, Adrian Peterson last year played for the Saints and Cardinals. So I want to know, guys, I want to know how deep you believe you have to go before you draft Adrian Peterson. So I'm going to start here. Adrian Peterson in 2018 or Corey Clement?
Cortland Sutton
Oh, Corey Clement. Corey Clement.
Jason Moore
Clement.
Cortland Sutton
Clement.
Andy Holloway
Corey Clement. Clementine. He's the 46th running back off the board right now. And you're taking Clement over Peterson?
Jason Moore
Yes.
Andy Holloway
Gio Bernard.
Jason Moore
I would take Adrian Peterson over Gio Bernard.
Cortland Sutton
I would take Gio Bernard.
Andy Holloway
Okay, Bernard's the 47th running back off the board right now. What about Mr. Jordan Wilkins, played last night, running back, rookie for the Indianapolis Colts or Adrian?
Cortland Sutton
That is a great question because the I'm wondering how the coaching staff is going to feel about Mr. Wilkins and his goal line fumble yesterday, fumbling in that region. Apparently they haven't cared about Naim Hines. He's got the itis.
Andy Holloway
I believe Wilkins had a couple of receptions yesterday.
Jason Moore
Sure.
Cortland Sutton
But my point is when a Rookie fumbles with a goal line opportunity. Sir, that's, that's not a good look. I would. That one I have to see. I got to wait for preseason week three to see how things.
Andy Holloway
I would probably take Wilkins right now, like if it. I mean, because you might not get to win, right?
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Cortland Sutton
If I'm drafting today, I'm. I guess I'm taking Wilkins.
Jason Moore
I would go Wilkins as well. I'd rather have the upside of a guy that may be, you know, he has the chance to turn into one of those weekly starters. I think Adrian Peterson will have some weeks of relevance, but I don't think he's going to be a weekly starter for the whole year.
Andy Holloway
C.J. anderson or Adrian Peterson?
Cortland Sutton
Anderson.
Jason Moore
Anderson.
Andy Holloway
Anderson's the 42nd off the board right now. James White or Adrian Peterson? James White in a standard league.
Jason Moore
James White in a standard league. I would probably go Adrian Peterson.
Cortland Sutton
Here's the thing for Adrian Peterson. I. It's a, It's a strange. That's wrong. It's an interesting signing for Washington to go with him, especially over someone like Orleans. Darkwa. You have Rob Kelly and Samaj P. Ryan. P. Ryan is of course dealing with the ankle injury. Rob Kelly by all accounts right now is still the starter. Are they going to say okay, and Adrian Peterson off the street is now good enough to be our starting running back. When coming into last year, they were more than comfortable having Rob Kelly as their starting running back. He possibly could have been their starter this year until Darius Geist were to supplant him. Adrian Peterson has some juice left, but if you watch him play football, he's not even close to the same player. There's a lot of wear on Adrian Peterson. He is a first ballot hall of Fame running back, but that's based off of his body of work from years past, not anything recent. They gave him a very, very small contract. It's just over a million dollars. Nothing is guaranteed. Meaning there's. There's no guarantee that, that if, if the Washington running backs return to health, there's no guarantee that Peterson makes this roster.
Jason Moore
Yeah. And there's certainly no. I expect, I project you believe he will to make the roster and to be the starter. That's what I. But, but it is worth saying that there is no guarantee he's going to be the starter. No promises made. Adrian Peterson is I believe somewhere around 37 yards away from overtaking Jim Brown on the all time list. So it's not. It's one of those situations where he might not need to Say, hey, I want to prove myself that I can be, you know, I can lead the league in yards. He might be going, I just want to crack that top 10, get ahead.
Andy Holloway
Of Jim Brown last year was biometric standards. I mean, he had a couple of games where he helped you in fantasy because he was, you know, 159 yards rushing, 130 yards rushing. Everything else looked pretty bad metric wise. I mean, second worst in the league in yards per carry, fourth worst in terms of stuffed on plays up the middle. It was mostly negative marks for Adrian Peterson last year.
Cortland Sutton
The thing, the thing, he did not.
Andy Holloway
Play behind a good offensive line in Arizona and he was forced into high workloads which would naturally depreciate that yards per carry a little bit. And then the injury to, in the year he got injured and didn't play after his 159 yard game.
Jason Moore
Not only that, but if you remember when, after one of those huge monster games and I, you know, Adrian Peterson was the new hotness and I tried to throw a bucket of cold water on him that week, said don't play him because at that age he was going from a Monday night Football game to a Thursday night football game. He did not have the rest. So a lot of his numbers were just trashed by that game where he was not ready. News and notes from around the league.
Andy Holloway
Well, we heard, we have some news on Titans wide receiver Rashad Matthews, but it's not very strange news. Not the kind of news we expected. We've, we've been wanting an injury update as to why he hasn't been participating in both camp and now two preseason games. But the news this morning is that Rashard Matthews, who was the leading receiver for the Titans last season, he's agreed to a one year extension through 2019. He negotiated it himself. He fired his agent and negotiated this deal has a base value of $7.75 million for the 2019 season and exactly zero guaranteed dollars.
Cortland Sutton
And it is a team option.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Cortland Sutton
Meaning that the team will say yes or no. You're going to get this contract.
Andy Holloway
Well, and we'll talk more about the Titans offense and wide receivers on today's show.
Cortland Sutton
So it'll be interesting if in fact turns out that Rashard Matthews absence from training camp was a holdout. We just, we don't have the update yet. Well, if Rashad Matthews is magically back today or tomorrow, you have to assume he was holding out and well, it's.
Andy Holloway
One of those things where you can't be on the field practicing and in your Agent suit in the office so he can't do the like switch hat thing. Yeah.
Cortland Sutton
You do slow down.
Jason Moore
Yeah. It's hard to run routes.
Andy Holloway
Have you ever seen anybody in a suit with pads?
Jason Moore
Oh, and pads?
Andy Holloway
I have. You have the rock. You never seen ballers. He basically looks like a man wearing pads.
Jason Moore
He does. Underneath the suit?
Andy Holloway
Yeah, he's just got the pads on.
Jason Moore
All right.
Andy Holloway
The jets running back Isaiah Crowell has cleared the Leaf's concussion protocol. He's back in practice. We'll see. You know, the expectations for Isaiah Cruella are all over the map. He should have every opportunity to be the guy in New York. And I do think that they're the second best team in a weak division, or I guess you could say. I mean, you kind of just throw the Patriots out and there's three people competing for second place.
Cortland Sutton
Sure.
Andy Holloway
The Saints have released running back Terrence west, which begs the question for me. I don't think anybody had Wes on the roster. Maybe some people had him in dynasty leagues, but Jonathan Williams actually looked pretty good.
Jason Moore
And not only that, but Jonathan Williams is. He's at this point a must own in dynasty leagues because you've got a guy who is talented on an offense and on a team that always produces four running backs, he's got that first four week opportunity. And then 29 year old Mark Ingram is going to be a free agent. I don't expect them to resign him at the end of this year. That's when he'd be 29. Jonathan Williams could have a future for the Saints, so it's definitely worth monitoring. I don't know that I would necessarily draft him, but he could be a starter, a startable asset those first four weeks of the season, too.
Cortland Sutton
Agreed.
Andy Holloway
All right, we are going to get into the breakouts, but this last piece of news I think is really important to discuss. Yesterday Jason was proclaiming the great praises of CMC of Christian McCaffrey. The opportunity he's going to have to run between the tackles, his opportunity to improve on what he did between the tackles last year in Carolina. Yet today we find out that left tackle Matt Khalil has had a knee scope that came from the recommendation of Dr. James Andrews. They've already lost the right tackle. They've lost all pro guard Andrew Norwell. The offensive line is in shambles in Carolina. Now I. Of all the players, of all the quarterbacks, that. That doesn't necessarily lead to negative fantasy production. Russell Wilson, for example, Cam Newton, I think falls into that category of look, you got to scramble you got to get out of the pocket. That doesn't necessarily hurt his fancy value. It can hurt the fancy value of cmc. So do you have, do you have concern. Do you want to, do you want to pull back on any of your hype for Christian McCaffrey?
Jason Moore
Yes, yes and no. I don't pull back on the hype of utilization. No, no, no. I think the utilization is really what I was hyping. I believe he will be the predominant runner, the predominant pass. He'll be a three down back, utilized a lot. But it is worth noting he, you know, just because he had a great 70 yard run in preseason does not mean he's going to be more efficient than he was last year with a worse offensive line. So he, he still very well will be inefficient through the tackles due to the downgraded offensive line. But I mean, he was a running back 12. He was a running back one last season due to his pass catching and that's not going away. And his carry volume will increase. So even if he's inefficient, he should have a better season this year than last year.
Andy Holloway
Mike, I'm going to ask you this question now. Matt Khalil. The prognosis is week to week after an arthroscopic procedure.
Cortland Sutton
If I was Matt Khalil playing the way that Matt Khalil had been playing, I might get a surgery too and just be like, ah, guys, I get bodied. I was getting every. I gave you everything I had. But you know, the old, the old knee. So a little rickety. Better go get it checked out.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I mean, he many, you know, kind of thought he was a liability as is.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Cortland Sutton
Which speaks to the Panthers. If he is. If he was the best option at left tackle, there's. There's a problem.
Andy Holloway
So I guess in that respect, it's more. So we already knew Norwell wasn't going to be there.
Cortland Sutton
Right.
Andy Holloway
That was all baked in. All right, let's get into breakouts.
Jason Moore
Breakouts.
Andy Holloway
Mike, we're gonna let you kick it off. Oh, yeah.
Jason Moore
Whoa.
Andy Holloway
I hadn't even looked at these names yet.
Cortland Sutton
Well, well, well, well, well.
Andy Holloway
I think it was a little bit of destiny the way I opened the show. Mike, maybe you start there.
Cortland Sutton
Oh, wow. I thought you saw my name. So you played the intro?
Andy Holloway
No, I was complete luck.
Cortland Sutton
Cortland Sutton, Denver Broncos wide receiver. He is a rookie this year, so we don't have past NFL experience to go off of, but I want to bring his name up as a man who will be Fantasy relevant this year he's essentially going on undrafted on fantasy football calculator. He's a mountain of a man. Six three, almost 220. Incredible agility and he's fast for how large he is. What you can't ignore about Cortland Sutton is the drumbeat. This is what you have to be paying attention to in preseason. Are they getting hyped at the beginning? Well, yeah, because he was an early round draft pick at the wide receiver position and he was one of the best wide receivers being touted. Everything, everything lined up. Okay. We're checking off some boxes. Making plays in training camp. Okay. We're getting those Twitter highlights of him scoring incredible touchdowns. Fantastic. Then it just keeps going. The hype keeps growing. Cortland Sutton is making plays in preseason. That's what I am paying attention to. Last year 65% of the time from according to Sharp Football the Denver Broncos ran in 11 personnel meaning three wide receivers were on the field. That's. That's a little bit more than the middle of the pack. They're going to be running three wide and they're saying Emmanuel Sanders is going to go into the slot. Cortland Sutton was an absolute touchdown machine in college. Double digit touchdowns each of his past two seasons, 10 then 12. Not to mention really his first year he had nine touchdowns. He is a dominant wide receiver. I'm not calling for him to supplant Sanders or demarius Thomas. What I am saying is he's going undrafted and he could be hitting You Wide receiver 3 Numbers by the end of the season.
Andy Holloway
Carlan Sutton or Keelan Cole?
Cortland Sutton
Keelan Cole. Because I believe that he has an opportunity to emerge as the guy for Jacksonville.
Andy Holloway
There is a world and I am all in on Colin Sutton with you. There's a world where he is the best receiver on this team.
Cortland Sutton
Yes. Today the upside is built in. Like I said, you can't project that a rookie is going to come in and steal away the position of demarius Thomas who's a just a perennial thousand yard receiver who has shown that he's elite but he's also shown he's losing a little bit. Demarius Thomas is. He's getting new quarterback.
Andy Holloway
Case Keenum. No pre established rapport with anybody. Sutton will have an opportunity. I agree with that. I like that breakout pick.
Jason Moore
Yeah, it's. I mean he was my number one wide receiver coming into the NFL draft. I was so sad when the Denver Broncos took.
Andy Holloway
I thought he was going to go to Dallas. I thought that's where he'd end up.
Jason Moore
Yeah, he was, I think that was like the.
Andy Holloway
That way he could be overthrown.
Jason Moore
Oh, get body Dak.
Cortland Sutton
Get better Dak.
Jason Moore
Seriously? Come on. Seriously.
Andy Holloway
We want what's best for you and.
Cortland Sutton
Is being a better completions.
Jason Moore
Yeah. All right. Am I up here?
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
Okay. So I'm going to go with a guy that was almost my, my guy. I really love the talent of this player. I did when he was in college. I did when he got drafted. I've, I've, I've beat the drum on Kenyan Drake for a long time.
Andy Holloway
So many drums on this, so many days.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I mean I got a 10 piece kit over here.
Cortland Sutton
What are you, Neil Pert over there?
Andy Holloway
I guess so there's no chance he knows that name.
Jason Moore
I actually do know that one. So here's the deal with Kenyan Drake. Kenyon Drake is a player that on the field, on film is fantastic. I don't know how anybody could disagree with that. He catches the ball well. He's decent in pass protection. He's faster to the edge than most players. I mean if you just watch this preseason, he's had a couple of plays like his go to move now is try to get tackled behind the line of scrimmage, avoid that, break loose and run for 35 yards. Like that's his signature.
Cortland Sutton
That's his signature move.
Jason Moore
Exactly.
Cortland Sutton
You know, last year, feign death behind the line, feigned death.
Jason Moore
We call him the Possum.
Andy Holloway
It's just a World of Warcraft character.
Cortland Sutton
Can you Drake the Possum.
Jason Moore
Canyon Drake the Possum. He led the league in yards after contact per carry last season. He is a quality player. The red flags, the flags that you worry about that stopped me from making him a my guy is simply will he be given the opportunity? Because if you look at, you know, he was drafted, he wasn't really given the opportunity, but he was behind Jay Ajayi. They shipped Jay Ajayi out. Now part of that is the fact that they, they, they thought they could. They had Drake there. But then after that, when Drake was clearly the best running back on their roster, they still gave Damian Williams the ball ahead of him, which made no sense. It took an injury to Damian Williams for Kenyon Drake to take over. But once he did those final five weeks of the season, he was the eighth best running back in half point ppr. He was awesome, electric. And now coming into this season, some of the things that have been said by Adam Gase, the fact that, you know, I don't know if you guys are aware there was a fight in Miami this last week in their, in their camp. Someone sucker punched Kenyon Drake and it was this big to do and that guy got cut. He gone. And there was a sit down between Adam Gase and Kenyon Drake. And Adam Gase came and told the reporters. He's like, look, I need Drake on the field. I can't call plays the same way without Drake there. And who does Drake have to beat? Yes, Frank Gore's coming in. He's going to get the ball.
Cortland Sutton
He is infinite.
Jason Moore
Look, I don't want to speak for you two. I was thinking about this earlier. I wanted to say that we all agree, but I don't know that we do. I will speak only for myself. I still believe that Frank Gore is a human being. So weigh in on you. I believe that he is actually human.
Cortland Sutton
You're saying like he has not become a God. He is, he's still a mortal man.
Jason Moore
Alien come to earth to be a football player like that is. And if that's true, he's 35 years old. That's all he's got to be. He's got to beat a 35 year old Frank Gore. And Caleb Balaj, who I don't believe is a, you know, is a, is a real threat. He's a, he's a weapon. But Kenya Drake is great. And if you look, there's a guy who does great work out there. Joe Holka. Follow him on Twitter. Oh, Holka, like polka, he creates the rushing expectation.
Andy Holloway
It's very similar to like polka, not possum polka.
Jason Moore
Right. It's very similar to Matt Harmon. Matt Harmon does reception perception for wide receivers. So you could see how are they regardless of quarterback play, just are they good at running routes, getting open, catching the ball? He does this for running backs and it's, it's basically offensive line agnostic. How good are they despite their offensive line or in spite of their offensive line? He rated his rushing expectation. Kenyon Drake was the second best running back according to his metrics last season regardless of offensive line. And Pro Football Focus has their offensive line improving this year? Nine spots better over their rank from last year. So I believe if Kenyon Drake gets the ball 200 times on the ground, he will be a running back one. I think the breakout is there for Kenyan Drake.
Cortland Sutton
The hard part about Kenyon Drake is, is the argument all off season coming from me has just been will he see the opportunity? It's not against the talents of Kenyon Drake because I think that if he if they commit to him, he's going to be dominant for fantasy. And you are right that in the, in the fourth round, Derek Henry's going in front of Kenyon Drake. I think that's just a huge mistake because he can turn into a league winning running back if he's given the workload. But it's.
Jason Moore
And he's a great pass cat. I mean, Jericho's going two rounds earlier and they have the same upside. Right. But McKinnon's opportunity is a little.
Andy Holloway
He's got to stay healthy, too.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
That is preseason. Last year, hamstring injuries, week 11 last year, knee, knee strain, showed up injured and in college. So there are some things he has to overcome, but the talent is there. Mike. Oh, it's my turn though, isn't it?
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Cortland Sutton
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Andy Holloway
I got.
Cortland Sutton
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Jason Moore
Yeah. And hey, foot clan, let me just ask you a little question. Do you shop?
Cortland Sutton
Do you purchase things from time to time?
Jason Moore
Do you like to save money?
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Jason Moore
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Cortland Sutton
Cool, thanks.
Jason Moore
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Andy Holloway
To do a little combo here with my breakout picks. I'm going to work in a name that I've talked a lot about this off season, Corey Davis. But I'm also going to work in Tawan Taylor.
Cortland Sutton
You sure you want to do this?
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I do because Tawan's an undrafted whiteout. And let's start with Corey Davis. I've talked a lot about him this offseason. I think he's got a great opportunity. You know the metrics. He's 63209. He torched Malcolm Butler in the playoffs last year, finally showed a little bit of the ability that we didn't get a seater in the season that was marred by the hamstring injury and various injuries, but he was the number five pick in the NFL draft. Marcus Mariota needs Corey Davis to be able to ascend this year. And I talked a lot last year about there are there were wide receivers in fantasy that went from irrelevance to relevance last year from from very low fantasy finishes. Devin funches went from 86 to 21. Robbie Anderson went from 68 to 16. Stefan Diggs went from 38 to 19. Corey Davis is just primed and ready for a jump. This is his opportunity this year. Now we some things are dependent on look, is Rashad Matthews healthy? Will he be back on the field? But Corey Davis has had the time this offseason and the health needs to be there. But I like Corey Davis as a breakout candidate and with that I want to bring up Taewon Taylor, a name that Jason's brought up multiple times this offseason. A player that had two touchdowns and flashed in the last preseason game. But let's remember some things about Taylor Taylor. Number one, this is a third round draft pick. Number two, the player profiler.com comp on Tavon Taylor and his metrics specifically, his very high percentile agility is Doug Baldwin. That's the kind of player that he's comped to on Player profiler. When you watch the game, preseason Week 2 specifically, he looked a lot like DeSean Jackson.
Cortland Sutton
The speed he hit the Turbo Jets.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, he hit. He didn't. He wasn't a player who in the combine put up a 4, 3 type of number. But on the field, his game speed, he caught the eye of LeBron James with that run. Oh, did you get a little Taewon Taylor tweet from LeBron?
Cortland Sutton
I'm still waiting for him.
Andy Holloway
It was an electric performance.
Cortland Sutton
Come on, LeBron, I know you're listening.
Jason Moore
He's verified.
Andy Holloway
Now, here's something interesting about Taewon. As a rookie, he played basically in the slot the entire year. 144 of his 246 offensive snaps were in the slot. Now he's in camp, he's been playing outside a lot and we don't know when Rashad Matthews is going to come back again. It's dependent on that. But Taylor, Taylor's going to have an opportunity. On an offense that didn't get to run a lot of offensive plays last year, whose game plan was stuck in the stone age. Well, you have and now moves Forward under Matt LaFleur.
Cortland Sutton
Touchdown, touchdown. Positive regression is going to happen for the Tennessee Titans. I'll just repeat it of, of Marcus Mariota. His, his first two years, he would average a touchdown on about every 18 attempts or so and last year plummeted to 34. Every 34 attempts, he'd throw a touchdown. It's. It's bumping back up. It was, yeah, he should do it more.
Andy Holloway
He should do it more often.
Jason Moore
Not only that, but, you know, one of the reasons I, I had Tawan Taylor highly, you know, projected early this offseason because what you brought up, Matt LaFleur, he's coming from, you know, this last season, the Los Angeles Rams system that always had three wide receivers and you. And spread it around, schemed it to them. Think about, you had value in Sammy Watkins, you had value in Cooper cup, you had value in Robert Woods. That's kind of one of those things where I think the Corey Davis and Tawan Taylor, I think the offense is going to take a step forward and Tawan will be involved.
Andy Holloway
Well, you know, you inspired me by going double Bears yesterday on the My Guys show. So also, this just in. Taewon Taylor's mom actually calls him Taiwan Taylor.
Jason Moore
Oh, oh, no, another one.
Andy Holloway
Get out of here. That's not actually True.
Jason Moore
Come on.
Andy Holloway
That's not true. That's not true.
Jason Moore
Boo. We don't need a Taylor on the toilet.
Andy Holloway
Goodness gracious. Very high volume booze.
Cortland Sutton
Mike, if I could do them louder, I would.
Andy Holloway
What's the next breakout candidate that you want to bring forth?
Cortland Sutton
All right, I'm going to bring him up.
Andy Holloway
Never heard of him.
Cortland Sutton
Amari Cooper. This is the year. Thank you. This is the year for Amari Cooper. He's going as the wide receiver, 16 in draft. People just, they aren't sure what to do with him. And I wanted to bring up a couple wide receivers of Note the past two years that Jon Gruden was a head coach. 2008, Antonio Bryant. 138 targets, 83 for 1248 yards and seven touchdowns. 2007, Joey Galloway. In 15 games, almost 100 targets, 57 receptions, over a thousand yards and six touchdowns. So wide receivers in Jon Gruden's system, they can thrive. Amari Cooper, we've seen the talent, we've seen it flash. Last year he had the second highest scoring wide receiver game of the year. And here's a quote from Derek Carr talking about Amari Cooper last year. Quote. He will never tell you and he'll never even talk about it, but the man was out there playing on one foot. That's what Carr said earlier in the offseason about Amari Cooper. And you could, you could see it, you could see a change in the way that Amari Cooper played. It's to go from that high, the second highest scoring wide receiver game in fantasy of the year, to just absolutely vanishing and being able to get nothing done. This was, this was exactly the example of when a guy plays through injury, but he really shouldn't be, he should be letting it rest. That's what Amari Cooper, he made a mistake this last year, but I believe that as the, as the number one in the system, Amari Cooper can thrive. Michael Crabtree is gone. Michael Crabtree was the absolute go to red zone weapon for Derek Carr. Shift those over to Amari Cooper. Just shift some of those over to Amari Cooper. And you're talking about a wide receiver, one who has top, dare I say, top five upside with his skill set and his newfound opportunity as the one on the team.
Jason Moore
Yeah, yeah, I can, I can buy that. My. Look, I'm happy to have this opportunity because early, early, if you're new to the fantasy footballers, maybe you haven't heard my love affair with this player. And I haven't had the opportunity to talk about him because Please be Kobe Fleener.
Andy Holloway
Please be Kobe Fleener. Please be Kobe Fleener.
Jason Moore
Things have been going wrong for him, but I am absolutely still 100% believer that he will break out this season. It is Rashad Penny, rookie running back for the Seattle Seahawks. And I finally, now that we're coming up to the main weekend of drafts, I'm actually going to be able to get him. When he was a third rounder, I was saying there's no way I'm drafting Rashad Penny. I know the talent. I think he can be a true three down back. I believe he is an elite talent. So did the Seahawks. They drafted him in the first round which is a huge look, draft capital matters for running backs. There's no way you can look at, you know, if you break down the history statistically over the Last, you know, 20 years in the NFL, draft capital at the running back position for first rounders means they get the opportunity. They always get the opportunity. Unless they have their career cut short with some catastrophic injury. If he gets the opportunity, he's going to succeed. And right now what's happened is Chris Carson was made the starter. He was the starter in camp and then Rashad Penny got injured where he's going to miss the rest of the preseason. He's going to continue to drop in drafts. And if you look at fantasy football calculator and you look at the average draft position of him and of Kris Carson, they're basically making an X. Chris Carson will be drafted this weekend ahead of Rashad Penny, which makes sense. He's the current starter. But Chris Carson is not as talented as Rashad Penny. You say, oh, he's looked good in preseason. Yeah, he's had a couple good runs. How about that goal line fumble that you know, you were just talking about with Jordan Wilkins? He had a goal line fumble. Those things matter. He hasn't just.
Andy Holloway
That's a glum. It's a glum ball.
Jason Moore
Right? So new stat, registered trademark as the season hands on. The reason I want to bring up Rashad Pinney is because he's going to be a late round draft pick. He's going to be in the eighth round, the ninth round. There are very few guys you can get there who could become a 300 plus touch first round draft capital pick who can catch the ball, who can run in every direction. And another thing to bring up, look, Chris Carson 300. Oh, absolutely. A 300 this year, this season could be a 300 touchdown.
Andy Holloway
I don't believe it.
Jason Moore
Here's another thing that will help that happen? You. You guys have.
Andy Holloway
I'm kidnapping Chris Carson this afternoon.
Cortland Sutton
The Celtic pride situation.
Jason Moore
I don't need to kidnap Chris Carson. Have you guys seen the way Chris Carson runs the ball? I mean, he. He runs ferocious. He runs like he is trying.
Andy Holloway
Reminds me of Thomas Rawls.
Jason Moore
Yes.
Andy Holloway
Rawls ran that way.
Jason Moore
They both ran the exact same way. How did Rawls hold up? He's in the shot with that running style. I mean, that running style will not stay healthy.
Andy Holloway
I'm not going to bank on an injury.
Jason Moore
I'm not banking on an injury, but I do. Look, it happened last year and if.
Cortland Sutton
So, it'll happen again.
Jason Moore
If he doesn't get injured this season, Rashad Pinney will absolutely take over the role this season.
Andy Holloway
300 is the only thing that threw me. I don't think 300 is in the cards for Rashad Pinney.
Cortland Sutton
Yeah, even. I was very bullish of even.
Andy Holloway
If you took Carson out of the equation right now. I don't know if three hundreds in.
Jason Moore
The cards for the Seattle Seahawks have revamped their team, their coaching staff and everything to run the ball. That's what they want to do. Whether you believe it's Chris Carson. Look, either one of them, somebody should have a breakout because they are going to run the ball left, right, center, stupidly, they're going to run the ball more than they should. But for fantasy, we need to be aware of that. That's what their offensive coordinator wants to do. They don't want to, you know, just put it in the hands of their, you know, Pro bowl quarterback for some reason. Yeah.
Cortland Sutton
Get away from there.
Jason Moore
And Rashad Penny in college was fantastic. He was my second favorite prospect behind Saquon Barkley. Coming out drafted in the first round. He had 2,248 yards and 23 touchdowns in college and is a very capable receiver. He looked good in his first preseason game, had a great pass block that left Russell Wilson able to throw a touchdown. And I believe in the breakout of Rashad Penny and next season you're going to be drafting Rashad Penny in the top three rounds. That's my full belief.
Andy Holloway
I think somebody asked the question of if you could see the future and know the ADP of a player next year, who would it be? Who would you want to know? Like, who? I guess the way I'm saying it is if you could see the ADP for next year, what knowledge would that give you? Like, what player would you want that knowledge on more than anybody else?
Jason Moore
You know what's funny is I. Yeah. I wanted this to be a quick question. My player was Kenyon Drake. That was who I wanted. But Rashad Penny would be the next guy up. My two breakouts, because I believe in the talent. I believe as well that they will get the opportunity. But they are, they are risky, these two players in the ultimate draft kit. I've got them statted out very well. I think they're going to have great seasons, but they do have a higher risk rating for sure.
Andy Holloway
All right, we're going to answer some Foot Clan questions after I drop the final breakout here on the show. This would be a guy I'd love to know his ADP next year. And it's Patrick Mahomes, quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, bounced the ball off the moon this past week, completing a 69 yard touchdown pass with 63 yards in the air to Tyree Kill, who Tyree Kill looked like he was on like the playground because there were three Falcons behind him, all running after him like a game of tag and he had about four or five yards in between him. But here's how many quarterbacks have completed a pass with at least 63 air yards since 2009. Aaron Rodgers. That was it. And no, that's it. Oh, Patrick Mahomes and Patrick. And it took him all of two preseason games to go out there. And we know, we know that narrative, like having silly arm strength does not make you a fantasy superstar, but we're bringing up opportunities to break out. And what I actually liked seeing was the entirety of his performance. It was a much better game than Week 1. He identified Travis Kelsey, lined up outside in one on one, dropped a diamond to the outside to Travis Kelsey, utilized him. He has weapons with Hunt and Hill and Watkins and Kelsey. So I think it's the assortment of weapons mixed with the arm strength mixed, you know, you mix in Andy Reid and the freedom that he's going to give his young quarterback to come in and do what it takes to win. It's a defense that I think at a minimum is about the same. Maybe a step back and there's going to be some shootout opportunities for Pat Mahomes to win you a week. And when Pat Mahomes goes off this year, it's going to be the type of performance that finishes in the top three in fantasy. It's not going to be 10, 11, I think so breakout candidate. He's the QB16 right now in drafts.
Jason Moore
I love Patrick Mahomes as a breakout. You want to draft him as your guy week one. Now keep in mind he does Have a schedule.
Cortland Sutton
Jason, he's got a rough.
Jason Moore
Jason.
Andy Holloway
What about the schedule?
Jason Moore
He's got a rough early season. Always talk about the schedule.
Andy Holloway
Jason very angry.
Jason Moore
No, look, I love the breakout on the season. I would be fine drafting him and say, hey, maybe he'll just beat those bad defenses. But it is worth noting he has a rough early schedule. But the thing that really puts Mahomes over the top for me, not only does he have Andy Reid, a great system, a great arm, but it's his legs. You realize that the last two seasons in college, he had over 700 rushing yards and 22 rushing touchdown.
Andy Holloway
You're saying he, he can do some booty scooting?
Jason Moore
Yeah. I mean, you got your cam, you got your Mahomes rushing. Quarterbacks in fantasy, they're just. They're an unfair advantage. Take advantage.
Andy Holloway
Well, I mean, if you don't buy into my torod Taylor take. If you don't believe in Taylor, Mahomes is in the category of guys that you can just take. Like, if you want to take a guy.
Cortland Sutton
Mahomes is not getting flyer for sure.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, well, sure. And if you want to take a flyer with your last pick in a draft, he's another guy you can consider with a breakout opportunity. I think he's going to have growing pains. He's going to have some tough weeks. But if he has, if he has the rushing yardage to set a floor for him, if he does have even a baseline that is at or above what Alex Smith was doing running the ball in Kansas City, that's going to help. You'll survive those weeks a little bit better. All right, let's get into the mailbag.
Jason Moore
Mailbag.
Andy Holloway
All right, if you have a question for this podcast, we let you. Was that a fish? Yeah. Like a little fish at the end of the mailbag.
Cortland Sutton
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Huh? It's coming up for air out of practice over there. Go to the website, the fantasy footballers.com. there's a submit a question button. You can send them in, try to answer a few on almost every show and you can dial our voicemail hotline. 302464, TFFB. Here's a voicemail question. Hey, ballers, what's up? This is Andy from Houston. Got a question for you. I'm going to be the commissioner in my new work league and one of the changes I am recommending to the guys is to implement dropping the kicker and adding a second flex position to replace it. What do you guys think of that change? Would you guys want to play in a League with two flex positions and. Yeah, we'd love to hear your thoughts. Thanks so much. Love the show, guys. Well, we do. We do play in a league like that. Our dynasty league is no kicker and.
Cortland Sutton
Extra flex and no defense.
Andy Holloway
And no defense. So I. Jason's just smirking because he, he feels like it's like a cause that's being supported.
Jason Moore
Look, I love.
Andy Holloway
He wants to drop kick the kicker.
Jason Moore
I want to drop kick the kicker. Look, you put so much time and energy and research and analysis and fun. You put fun research into running backs and wide receivers and quarterbacks.
Andy Holloway
And this is just an act of will, though. You could do that with kickers, but you don't.
Cortland Sutton
But no one does.
Andy Holloway
That's true. But I remember being at our live show in New York and when Jason had to face a Foot Clan listener who was a collegiate kicker and he had some thoughts.
Jason Moore
I got no problem. Get rid of him. Get rid of him. Get by him.
Cortland Sutton
But I mean, you bring up the great point. Have you ever in your fantasy football career. I'm not talking about the fantasy football dog in. I'm talking not you, not just you, but have you ever heard someone say, I got the breakout of the year?
Jason Moore
Well, we have a boom, boom. It's this.
Cortland Sutton
Yeah, but it's this kicker. He is my breakout of the year. No one has ever said that in the history of the sport.
Jason Moore
But they change victories week in and week out because this guy missed the. You know, it's just, it's. It's.
Andy Holloway
They're the lettuce of fantasy football. No, look, nobody ever says, boy, the lettuce in this salad's the real ticket.
Jason Moore
I am fine.
Andy Holloway
But you kinda. This part of the meal.
Cortland Sutton
You watch what you talk about with kale.
Jason Moore
If you are a football. If you're a football truther and you're like, I'm never getting rid of a kicker. I'm totally cool with that. Just nerf it a little bit. Don't have these things where these kickers are getting five points for a field goal.
Andy Holloway
Also, he's not totally cool with that.
Jason Moore
I'm fine with you having kickers. I'm not fine with you having these kickers that are outscoring. What if Tight ends and running backs. It's absurd.
Cortland Sutton
What if you just. You had the kicker spot. You play a kicker every week, but they score zero points.
Jason Moore
That's a good idea.
Cortland Sutton
There you go. You get your kicker. Are you happy?
Jason Moore
I would give him a point if they didn't miss anything. You know, like he didn't miss this week.
Andy Holloway
So a perfect kicker week's a point. Yeah, you miss anything, you get zero.
Jason Moore
You get zero.
Andy Holloway
And so the max points a kicker can score is one.
Jason Moore
But to speak to the flex position. Yes, that sounds perfect to speak to the flex position. I'm always a fan of more flex position. And if you're listening to this show, you're going to be hopefully more prepared than the average Joe. And that just gives you an advantage for the deeper your roster is, the deeper your starting roster is, the better decisions you're going to make over your opponents and get more hashtag Foot Clan titles.
Andy Holloway
All right, Connor Castillo in Atlanta has a which guy question following our my guy show. He said, hey, guys, 10 Team Snake Redraft league and I have the first pick. Would you rather have Gronk or Mixon in the third round? So Gronk. It's the third round, but it's the first pick of the third round in that case. Right. And you'd rather have Gronk?
Cortland Sutton
Gronk?
Andy Holloway
If I already have two players, yeah.
Cortland Sutton
Heck yeah. Give me Gronk.
Jason Moore
I'll take Jordan Howard right before mixing and then grab Gronk.
Andy Holloway
Oh, Gronk. Madman Max in Boston says after five games, everyone is certain that DeSean Watson's production has to regress when less than four games on tape. How convinced of Dalvin Cook are you? So he's bringing up the point that we often bring up. Look, Watson's got a small sample size. He's got unsustainable metrics. And here's my why is Dalvin Cook different?
Cortland Sutton
I've been asked this question quite a few times and my response is always, you are comparing literally the hardest position in professional sports. You're talking about the quarterback versus the running back, which when it comes to football is one of the easiest transitions for a college player to make. They come in and they get opportunity and they make an impact. A quarterback has a lot to learn, so that's why it is so vastly different. This is not even close to an apples to apples. This is. This is an apples to not. Not even a piece of fruit. This is an apples to broccoli, apples.
Jason Moore
To couches situation here.
Cortland Sutton
Thank you.
Jason Moore
Here's. Here's the other part of it, though. It's not just quarterback to running back. That is. That is completely legit point. But what Dalvin Cook did last year was on par with what he did in college and was a good a top 12 running back. What DeSean Watson did last year was on pace to be the best quarterback in the history of football that has ever been seen to throw to break every touchdown record possibly imaginable. That's part of why we think regression is there.
Andy Holloway
And I'm going to make the point. I mean, I've said it all off season. I do not believe Dalvin Cook's workload. I believe that that's the thing you can analyze the most from only a four game sample size. Last year, Latavius Murray was hurt. Dalvin Cook took the job and ran with it. And I don't think that that is proof that he's going to get that kind of work the rest of his career.
Jason Moore
You also have Pat Schumer leaving and he has a tendency to have a more dominant running back.
Andy Holloway
So Adrian Peterson or Latavius Murray?
Jason Moore
Oh, Latavius, Latavius.
Cortland Sutton
I think Latavius is going to steal a bunch of touchdown. I still love Dalvin Cook. I think he is a top tier running back.
Andy Holloway
I think he's an RB2.
Cortland Sutton
An RB2.
Andy Holloway
Really, I do. I think Dalvin Cook's an RB2. Yeah. All right. Voicemail Question.
Cortland Sutton
Hey ballers, this is Rick from Dallas. Quick question on the Eagles situation with.
Andy Holloway
Their quarterbacks pretty much being question marks.
Jason Moore
For the beginning of season, do you.
Andy Holloway
Think that that effect positively or negatively.
Jason Moore
Affects the Eagles running back situation?
Andy Holloway
I appreciate it. Thanks guys.
Jason Moore
If they're not ready to go, it's negative. I mean, it's not like, oh, they're going to have to run the ball more. It's oh, they're going to score fewer points, they're going to get less yardage, they're going to have a worse game. So it's definitely a negative for the entire team. If their two starting quarterbacks aren't ready to go, it looks like Foles should be ready to go. And while everything is trending in the right direction for Wentz, I do know I saw a pro football doc who's probably my most trusted source for information. He just put out an article saying that he believes Carson Wentz will not be ready for week one.
Cortland Sutton
Yeah, he's growing concerned that Carson Wentz will not be ready.
Andy Holloway
Nick Foles is going to play a half in the next preseason game. So his health is is back. I, if I had to, you know, I'm not a pro football doc and I think we're waiting for. If you listen to Carson Wentz yesterday, he passed the hurdle of the 1111 drills. But he will openly admit he does. Not him nor Doug Peterson has final say on this. It's all going to be doctor related. It's all going to be whether they believe he can withstand, you know, impact in week one, do what it needs to be done. I still lean on the side of believing you'll be there, but it's going to be down to the wire.
Jason Moore
One of the big issues here is the timeline of recovery. From what I understand in the research I've done is that basically week one is the, you know, it's got like the whatever it is, 9 to 12 month recovery. Can't remember if it's 9 to 12 or 6 to 9. But week one is the lower tier of that recovery timeline. The problem isn't whether or not he's going to be ready. The problem is during that three month period, just based on, you know, the history of this injury, there's a higher probability for re injury. Once you're past the full recovery timeline, there shouldn't be the possibility for re injury of those ligaments.
Cortland Sutton
So that's where it's like Ryan Tannehill.
Andy Holloway
That's the name that came to mind. Ryan Tannehill went through that.
Jason Moore
Yeah. I mean, you don't want to say, okay, he can play like, I would rather. This is Carson Wentz. This is your future. 10 years.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. You won a Super Bowl, Nick.
Jason Moore
Bowls hold him out for three months if you have to make sure.
Andy Holloway
Hey, wounds.
Jason Moore
I'm just saying I would rather, I would rather do that and have him for the next seven years a fantasy owner, you know, certainly. Well, look, I traded for him in Dynasty. Start him in week one.
Andy Holloway
All right, well, that is it for today's episode. Thank you for tuning in, supporting the podcast. Tomorrow we have the much anticipated annual event, the fantasy MVP episode. We've also got bus later this week we've got a mock draft live on the show. We'll have all the latest news, injury updates and more. Be sure to check it out draft.com ballers for your best ball needs and ultimate draft kit.com before your draft. Get equipped. Get right. See you later.
Cortland Sutton
Goodbye.
Jason Moore
Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.
Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Breakouts, Draft Questions, Yo Adrian!"
Release Date: August 21, 2018
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and guest Cortland Sutton
The episode kicks off with the hosts setting the stage for an engaging discussion centered around breakout candidates, draft strategies, and addressing listener questions. The focus is on identifying players who could transition from fantasy irrelevance to high-impact contributors in the upcoming season.
The hosts delve into the implications of veteran running back Adrian Peterson signing with the Washington Redskins. They debate whether drafting Peterson is worthwhile compared to other running back options available around his draft position.
Andy Holloway [04:24]: "Adrian Peterson in 2018 or Corey Clement?"
Cortland Sutton [04:27]: "Clement."
Jason Moore [05:09]: "I would take Adrian Peterson over Gio Bernard."
The discussion highlights Peterson's declining performance metrics and the uncertainty surrounding his role in a Redskins backfield already thin due to injuries.
The news segment covers Rashad Matthews agreeing to a one-year contract extension with the Titans, valued at $7.75 million with zero guaranteed dollars and a team option for 2019.
The hosts express curiosity about whether Matthews' absence from training camp is due to a potential holdout or undisclosed reasons.
Isaiah Crowell has successfully cleared the Tennessee Titans' concussion protocol and is back in practice. Expectations for Crowell's role in New York are discussed, emphasizing the competitive nature of the Titans' running back position.
The New Orleans Saints have released running back Terrence West, prompting discussions about Jonathan Williams' potential as a reliable fantasy asset in dynasty leagues.
The core of the episode revolves around identifying players poised for significant fantasy performance improvements. Each host presents their breakout picks, accompanied by insightful analysis and supporting statistics.
As a rookie Denver Broncos wide receiver, Sutton showcases considerable agility and speed, making him a promising candidate to emerge as a key fantasy contributor.
Kenyan Drake is highlighted for his dynamic playstyle and potential to secure a prominent role in the Miami Dolphins' offense, especially following Jay Ajayi's departure.
Andy Holloway [26:20]: "Corey Davis has had the time this offseason and the health needs to be there. But I like Corey Davis as a breakout candidate."
Cortland Sutton [30:35]: "This is the year for Amari Cooper."
Corey Davis is praised for his opportunity to shine with the Tennessee Titans, while Tawan Taylor is recognized for his impressive preseason performances and versatility within the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense.
Amari Cooper is identified as a breakout candidate due to his elevated role following the departure of Michael Crabtree, positioning him as the primary target in the Oakland Raiders' passing game.
Rashad Penny is discussed as a high-risk, high-reward option in the Seattle Seahawks' backfield, contingent on his recovery from injury and opportunity to secure a significant workload.
Patrick Mahomes is spotlighted for his explosive arm strength and mobility, predicting a potential ascent to the top tiers of fantasy quarterbacks, despite a challenging early-season schedule.
The hosts emphasize the importance of balancing upside with risk mitigation when building a fantasy roster. They discuss tools like risk ratings from the Ultimate Draft Kit (UDK) to assess player reliability based on factors like injury history, consistency, and depth chart position.
Jason Moore adds that while a strong draft foundation is crucial, in-season moves and adaptability are equally important for championship success.
The episode features a segment where the hosts address questions from listeners, offering personalized advice on various fantasy football scenarios.
The hosts generally support the idea, citing that it aligns with focusing on more impactful positions and enhancing strategic depth in team rosters.
Listener Connor Castillo [45:02]: "10 Team Snake Redraft league and I have the first pick of the third round. Would you rather have Gronk or Mixon?"
Cortland Sutton [45:58]: "Heck yeah. Give me Gronk."
The consensus leans towards selecting Rob Gronkowski over Dalvin Cook in this specific draft position, highlighting Gronk's consistent high scoring potential.
The discussion points out the positional differences and historical performance trends, concluding that Dalvin Cook remains a more reliable and top-tier running back option.
The hosts agree that quarterback uncertainties negatively impact the offensive performance, subsequently affecting running backs' fantasy value due to potential reductions in scoring and yardage.
The episode wraps up with the hosts recapping the key breakout candidates and emphasizing the importance of staying informed about player news and draft strategies. They tease upcoming episodes featuring the annual Fantasy MVP and mock draft live sessions, encouraging listeners to utilize resources like Ultimate Draft Kit for optimal draft preparation.
Andy Holloway [04:24]: "So I'm going to start here. Adrian Peterson in 2018 or Corey Clement?"
Jason Moore [05:09]: "I would take Adrian Peterson over Gio Bernard."
Andy Holloway [03:27]: "When you build a fantasy team, your objective is to both give yourself upside and mitigate risk so that you have staying power to win your league."
Jason Moore [40:10]: "I love Patrick Mahomes as a breakout. You want to draft him as your guy week one."
This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the "Breakouts, Draft Questions, Yo Adrian!" episode, providing valuable insights and analyses for fantasy football enthusiasts looking to enhance their team strategies for the upcoming season.