Breakouts + Players We Forgive, Surprise Offenses - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/25

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode Title: Breakouts + Players We Forgive, Surprise Offenses
Release Date: August 25, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers kicked off the episode with a warm welcome to both new and returning listeners, expressing gratitude for the growing community and encouraging reviews on various platforms. The hosts outlined the episode's focus on breakout candidates, players deserving forgiveness from the previous season, and surprise offenses that could impact the upcoming fantasy football landscape.

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Players We Forgive

The segment centered around identifying players who underperformed last season due to various factors but show potential for improvement.

James Conner (Pittsburgh Steelers)

• Al Borland highlighted James Conner as a player worth forgiving:

  "If James Conner is healthy, he's going to be a complete draft steal." [04:03]

• Discussion Points:
  • Conner's performance was hampered by limited opportunities and poor quarterback play.
  • His health remains a key concern, but his talent positions him as a valuable asset if he stays healthy.
  • Andy Holloway noted:

    "He's the kind of player that if he's the guy and he's healthy, he's going to be much higher in Final fantasy finish for 2020 or he's going to be hurt." [05:38]

David Montgomery (Chicago Bears)

• Andy Holloway advocated for drafting Montgomery despite last season's subdued performance:

  "I think he's going to vault up. I think he's going to be a great depth piece and very much outdo his ADP." [36:40]

• Discussion Points:
  • Montgomery's role as the Bears' sole goal-line back presents significant touchdown potential.
  • Improvements in his offensive role and conditioning could translate to increased fantasy production.
  • Al Borland acknowledged Montgomery's previous lack of fantasy output but remains optimistic:

    "He just had such little fantasy production that it’s difficult to go back on." [06:57]

Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles)

• Jason Moore expressed willingness to forgive Ertz for his underperformance in the first half of the previous season:

  "I am forgiving Zach." [09:06]

• Discussion Points:
  • Ertz's early struggles were offset by his overall talent and potential for resurgence.
  • Contract considerations and team dynamics indicate a strong future performance.
  • Jason Moore emphasized:

    "He’s going to be a really valuable tight end." [09:59]

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Breakout Candidates

Identifying players poised to exceed expectations, the hosts discussed several key breakout prospects.

Noah Fant (Denver Broncos, Tight End)

• Jason Moore championed Fant as the breakout tight end of the season:

  "He is this year's breakout tight end." [27:38]

• Key Insights:
  • Fant's athleticism and improved offensive schemes could elevate his role.
  • His yards per reception (14.1) ranks second among rookie tight ends over the past 25 years.
  • High touchdown upside with potential for 8+ touchdowns.

Ronald Jones II (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Running Back)

• Andy Holloway highlighted Ronald Jones as a prime breakout RB:

  "I think he has just an incredible opportunity this year." [33:11]

• Key Insights:
  • Jones is expected to secure significant goal-line touches, increasing touchdown potential.
  • Enhanced role in passing game despite limited catches last season.
  • Jason Moore supported the pick:

    "I am happy to draft Ronald Jones where he's going right now for the chance of the goal line, for the chance of a true Breakout." [35:13]

Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts, Running Back)

• Al Borland and Jason Moore discussed Taylor's potential as a breakout RB:

  "I have bumped him way up in my rankings and it's, it's go time." [36:40]

• Key Insights:
  • Taylor's impressive college production positions him as a high-upside pick.
  • Improved pass-catching skills and involvement in the Colts' offense could boost his fantasy value.
  • Contrasting opinions on his immediate impact versus long-term potential.

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Surprise Offenses

The hosts analyzed NFL offenses that could unexpectedly perform well, benefiting fantasy managers.

Denver Broncos

• Jason Moore sees Denver as a potential fantasy surprise if key players perform:

  "If they click, I think it will be really good if it clicks." [48:37]

• Discussion Points:
  • Integration of players like Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant could enhance offensive efficiency.
  • Potential increase in Melvin Gordon's goal-line opportunities.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Andy Holloway identified the Raiders as a surprise offense:

  "I think more viable fantasy options [are] in Las Vegas." [49:17]

• Key Insights:
  • Handling Tyrell Williams' injury opens opportunities for Brian Edwards and other rookies.
  • Improved quarterback play with Derek Carr could elevate the entire offense's performance.

New York Jets

• Al Borland expressed unexpected potential for the Jets:

  "I am going to bring up the New York Jets. ... I still believe in Sam Darnold." [49:34]

• Discussion Points:
  • Sam Darnold's growth and potential team improvements could lead to a better offensive output.
  • Despite past struggles, a favorable environment might unlock his fantasy value.

Cleveland Browns

• Jason Moore and Al Borland discussed the Browns as a post-hype sleeper:

  "I think last year I called for the collapse, but the Browns this year I think could be much, much better." [50:45]

• Key Insights:
  • Strong supporting cast with players like Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. enhances their offensive potential.
  • Austin Hooper's dominating training camp suggests improved tight end performance.

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News and Notes

The hosts provided updates on player injuries and team developments that could influence fantasy decisions.

• Injuries:

  • Kenyan Drake (Arizona Cardinals): Spotted in a walking boot, raising concerns about his workload and availability.

    "It's precautionary." [12:42]

  • Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks): Exited practice early but showed improvement.

    "AJ Green resuming running on Monday." [14:43]

• Steelers:

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster: Anticipated to flourish with Ben Roethlisberger's return.

    "I do believe JuJu is going to have the break up." [15:11]

• Raiders:

  • Brian Edwards: Recognized as a major beneficiary of Tyrell Williams' potential injury.

    "He has absolutely moved into that later round." [17:35]

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Mailbag: Listener Questions

Question: Calvin Ridley or Hollywood Brown? Full PPR Dynasty League.

• Response:
  • Jason Moore advised prioritizing Calvin Ridley over Hollywood Brown in dynasty redraft leagues due to Ridley's higher probability of being a top 15 wide receiver despite some uncertainty.

    "The probability of being a top 15 wide receiver is higher with Calvin Ridley." [45:02]

  • Al Borland echoed the sentiment, noting Ridley's consistency and higher floor compared to Brown.

    "Calvin Ridley is a priority over Marquis Brown." [45:13]

  • Andy Holloway discussed the ceiling differences, acknowledging that while Brown may offer higher upside, Ridley is the safer and more reliable pick.

Additional Mailbag:
Question: What offense can surprise people in 2020 and be very good for fantasy?

• Jason Moore: Denver Broncos if key players like Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy maximize their roles.
• Al Borland: New York Jets, surprising with Sam Darnold's potential improvement.
• Andy Holloway: Cleveland Browns, leveraging the talents of Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr.

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Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers wrapped up the episode by reiterating the importance of considering both upside and reliability when drafting players. They emphasized staying informed about player developments and team dynamics to make informed fantasy decisions. Listeners were encouraged to engage with the community and take advantage of available resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit.

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Notable Quotes

• Al Borland on James Conner:

  "If James Conner is healthy, he's going to be a complete draft steal." [04:03]

• Jason Moore on Zach Ertz:

  "He’s going to be a really valuable tight end." [09:59]

• Andy Holloway on Ronald Jones:

  "I think he has just an incredible opportunity this year." [33:11]

• Jason Moore on Noah Fant:

  "He is this year's breakout tight end." [27:38]

• Andy Holloway on Jonathan Taylor:

  "I am officially drawing my line on the not enough work. Great player, can catch the ball. Won't get enough this year. Will disappoint you." [41:10]

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This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the Fantasy Footballers' episode, highlighting key discussions on player forgiveness, breakout candidates, and surprising offensive units that could shape the upcoming fantasy football season.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

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[Mike Wright]

What's up, Foot Clan? Oh, yeah. You know what time it is? It's fantasy football time. It's time to get it everything you've got. And that starts with the ultimate draft, kid. You looking for tiered rankings? All right, how about over 100 video profiles? Okay. Sleepers, breakouts. The UDK is never, never gonna give you up if you're all in this season. Stop wasting time and slide into ultimatedraftkit.com.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the fantasy Footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Tuesday, August 25th, the fantasy footballers. Back with you, Andy, Mike and Jason. I. Well, Jason and myself, we didn't, we didn't know that intro was coming. That was, that was all Mike and someone else, one of our esteemed producers. That was, you know, something special.

[Al Borland]

You know, it.

[Andy Holloway]

Something's sultry. You can get the ultimate draft kit atultimatedraftkit.com get ready to go for 2020. So excited about the show. Today we have breakouts. We're going to be working through some feelings at the top part of the show.

[Al Borland]

It's always a good thing to do.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And we appreciate all the new listeners that are subscribing, tuning in, getting ready for the 2020 season. Thank you for the reviews on Apple podcasts or wherever you listen. I feel like now I'm in just a. Oh, I'm kind of calmed in, baby. Yeah, let's get into that. Quick question.

[Al Borland]

That sounded like Mitch Hedberg.

[Jason Moore]

Let's talk about some Kenny G.

[Andy Holloway]

Waffles are just pancakes with syrup traps. All right, players to forgive. Who is a player that you're willing to forgive from last season? So every off season, there's a lot of hype, there's a lot of excitement, there's a lot of expectation, and sometimes players come out and they have a good year, not a great year. They don't live up to the hype, so to speak. And they need to be forgiven. Other players get hurt. Other players, you know, it's the, they call them post hype sleepers for a reason. Sometimes you're a year off on a player. But I want to know, gentlemen, who are you forgiving?

[Al Borland]

I'll jump in here. I am forgiving James Conner, running back from the Pittsburgh Steelers. There is this tier of running backs right around there that Connor is involved with, but Todd Gurley, David Johnson, all guys that look, you're, you're going to have to work through your feelings and forgive somebody if you're going to draft them. And for me, it is James Conner, because to me, the only thing stopping James Conner from being a top 10 running back is health. Now, the health is a very large question, but those other guys in that tier, there are larger questions that have to be answered along with health. We saw Connor. Connor still put up three top 10 weeks in his limited amount of work with terrible quarterback play. Let's, let's also not forget Ben Roethlisberger is back. All reviews for the quarterback at a training camp have been glowing. It's still being reported. You know, James Conner is the guy for this team. We'll see if he can play his way into another contract. But for this year, if James Conner is healthy, he's going to be a complete draft steal.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're forgiving him?

[Al Borland]

I am.

[Andy Holloway]

Did it take you a long time or was this a quick. Well, emotional.

[Al Borland]

So he, he was my guy for me last year. I was all in on James Conner and that's a deep cut.

[Andy Holloway]

That's bizarre.

[Al Borland]

It was, it, was it burnt?

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the thing about James Conner, and we've said it on the show in the past, he's not going to finish where he's being drafted.

[Al Borland]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

He's the kind of player that if he's the guy and he's healthy, he's going to be much higher in Final fantasy finish for 2020 or he's going to be hurt. They're going to share time. It's going to be multiple running backs.

[Al Borland]

And then he won't be a fourth round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no. So interesting. Mine's in that same category, that same range of running backs, and it's David Montgomery. David Montgomery is a player that I think people have a hard time liking. After last year, the excitement, the preseason hype, how good a running team Chicago was the year prior with Jordan Howard, it all fell apart for Matt Nagy. If you remember the press conferences with Matt Nagy, it was like, yeah, I want to run the football, but they were running it like 39% of the time and trusting Mitch Trubisky 61% of the time. It wasn't a good situation. But as a Rookie, I mean, 277 opportunities or carries in that offense, finished at number 25 at the position sometimes gets lost in the equation. And if he should be the only goal line option for Chicago. So if things improve on offense, he's a very capable pass catcher. I think what he did last year is probably the basement of what you're going to see from David Montgomery. So I'm willing to draft him on the hopes that. And his camp reports have been glowing as well.

[Al Borland]

I mean, he has taken the health and the fitness to another level, allegedly. If you're new to the show, I always talk about, I love when running backs lose weight. I love when wide receivers gain weight. I don't generally like when a running back says, oh, I'm going to bulk up and put on weight so I can make it through the season. We've just seen it change the athletic profile for players too many times. It takes away from that player what they are. But when a running back loses weight, they're in excellent shape. The hard part for forgiving David Montgomery is he was around the whole time. Like there's. You can't point at an excuse really for David Montgomery other than he wasn't that good for fantasy. Like you said, the opportunities were there. He was there every game. He just had such little fantasy production that it, it's, it's difficult to, to go back in.

[Andy Holloway]

He's actually for, for a player to get over 275 carries. This is something that Brad Evans pointed out. He basically had the lowest finish of.

[Al Borland]

Any player from Brad.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, when he posted 275, that number, you generally finish inside that top 24. It's a matter of them getting into the red zone. I mean, you, you have these players on bad. This is my fear for any of these bad offensive situations. You three now. Three and out. Three and out. Not no red zone opportunities.

[Al Borland]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Inside the five opportunities, he's a tackle breaker. He was one of the best in football. He just has a mediocre offensive line and a bad quarterback situation. But I love knowing that he's going to get 275 to 300 opportunities.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the good news for David Montgomery, obviously, they bring in a new star player to the offense who's been tearing it up in camp, which should help the offense. Their star has been reportedly Jimmy Graham. So now that They've added Jimmy Graham to the Bears offense.

[Andy Holloway]

Cole and Cole Comet. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

For me, this. This is. Look, people are wondering, is it. Is it Philip Rivers? No. Get P River out of my life. I'm not ready to forgive yet. But Zach Ertz was a player.

[Al Borland]

You're not going to swim.

[Jason Moore]

Who? Last year. I don't know if you guys remember. No, I'm not swimming in P River, Mike.

[Al Borland]

Not again.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know if you remember last year. Those of us who had Zach Ertz do remember, but he really stunk the first half of last year. I mean, like, really bad. Six of the first eight weeks, he wasn't in the top 12 at tight end.

[Al Borland]

He was brutal.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a wasted pick at tight end.

[Jason Moore]

It was a wasted pick. It was terrible. And you ever have one of those guys where you've got him for their bad stretch and you trade them and then they're great? That's what I experienced. And that hurts. It doesn't feel good.

[Andy Holloway]

You actually did the opposite with Greg Olson a few years back. You watched him dominate the NFL and then traded for him for his bad stretch.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. So I did the same, just in reverse order. But I never forgave Greg Olson. I am forgiving Zach.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's on our bathroom wall.

[Jason Moore]

He's Olson. Yes, I hold grudges, but with Zach Ertz, I've been rising on him. You know, the hairline thumb fracture for Goddard, the nebulous situation of the receiving core, the questionable health of Alshon Jeffrey and age of DeSean Jackson. In the end, Zach Ertz is just going to be a really valuable tight end. And the nice thing is he keeps dropping every live draft that I'm doing. I just see Zach Ertz fall to the fifth. People don't want him.

[Andy Holloway]

No. He's being disrespected.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he is. And I like that for my emotions and for, more importantly, the value. So I'm back in on Zach Ertz, and honestly, he's been one of my targets in the last few drafts I've been doing. So let's go.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he's also feeling left out from the, like, bag of cash party that's going on with George Kittle and Travis Kelsey. Yeah. Dallas Goddard came out today talking about how Zachary deserves an extension.

[Jason Moore]

And he's in his contract year, I believe.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he's got two years left.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, really?

[Andy Holloway]

But that didn't stop nobody. You can. Kelsey had time left, too. You can find us on Twitter, FF Ballers, the community. Over 10,000 [e-mail] it's your chance to get into the Megalobol Tournament right [e-mail] that's where you can get access to foot clan leagues, the extra weekly episode. Tons of sweet perks for our listeners [e-mail] the website's the fantasy footballers dot com. Let's talk news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

I have a note in here. Jason Moore, former co host of the Fantasy footballers podcast, was spotted in a body bag Monday after two of his my guys were injured. He will be missed.

[Jason Moore]

A lot of people saying, I'm, I'm trying to take your reaper title. Ooh. Which is not one I want. I am happy to not have that. But it was not good news.

[Andy Holloway]

Kenya Drake spotted in a walking boot Monday. Tyler Lockett exited practice early. Thoughts?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I tweeted my thoughts that someone needs to go protect Marquis Brown immediately.

[Andy Holloway]

Who's actually the more injury prone of the three?

[Jason Moore]

Someone go keep him safe. Look, it's not what you want, obviously. I want these players to be healthy. It's not what I can predict. You know, that's one of the hardest parts of fantasy is you talk and you do the research and you do all this stuff and injuries. You know, it's like you said with James Conner last year, you are all in. You didn't get to see it on the field. And both of these guys are presumed to be okay. They should be fine for week one. But I just don't like, you know, people are saying, oh, it's not, it's precautionary. But with Kenyan Dre, it's precautionary.

[Andy Holloway]

That's Cliff Kingsbury said, that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

[Jason Moore]

Why aren't all of your players in a walking boot then?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, that's how I, I read it. I was like, wait, Kenyon Drake said I'm good.

[Al Borland]

Then he posts, fingers crossed.

[Andy Holloway]

Fingers crossed.

[Al Borland]

What do you make of that, Jason?

[Jason Moore]

Do you know what this symbol means? It means. I sure hope what I'm saying is true. Or.

[Al Borland]

Or I'm lying.

[Jason Moore]

Or I'm lying.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, I hate to say it, but I was a believer that Chase Emmons was going to have a considerable role in this offense. Regardless, at this point, he's, he should be an imperative for a Kenyan Drake, somebody who's rostering Drake because much like the Miles Sanders News, if they have to come out and say he should maybe be ready for San Francisco the first week, what is the chance that Drake gets a full workload? Is there a chance that Sanders in that first week, Drake in that first week, at least just those weeks, doesn't get a full workload? I mean, how are you not looking at Edmonds the same way you would look at Madison in. In Minnesota?

[Al Borland]

He's pretty close for me in terms of priority draft priority, like Chase Edmonds is a great player. We saw what happened when he was the starting running back when David Johnson sort of was playing that one week, except it turned into the Chase Edmonds show. So, yes, Edmonds is. He is a priority later round running back for me. Not necessarily that if I draft Alvin Cook, I am drafting Alexander Madison. I don't have that same conviction of if I draft Drake, I have to get Edmonds.

[Andy Holloway]

But is Madison the only one in that category in general for any of these insurance backups?

[Al Borland]

Yeah, I'm not drafting backups because I would prefer to draft your backup. I want the opportunity at the.

[Andy Holloway]

Stay away, man. Stay away. Tyler Lockett exited practice early. Doesn't appear to be anything of grave concern now in speaking of much healthier players, AJ Green resumed running on Monday.

[Jason Moore]

Congratulations, Andy.

[Andy Holloway]

So just to be clear, A.J. green running. Tyler Lockett not running. I'm going to enjoy this one. Sweet, sweet five seconds of time in today's news and notes Deontay Johnson, he's missed the last five days of practice.

[Al Borland]

Steelers wide receiver potential, like breakout candidate. He was the hot, hot breakout candidate over the off season.

[Andy Holloway]

Still is.

[Al Borland]

Yeah, no, he still is just saying that this is.

[Jason Moore]

He has very little work with Ben Roethlisberger, so it's worth at least, you know, noting that if he's missing a week here, he didn't really play with Big Ben last season, one game. Whereas juju's now going into, you know, the third year with him. You just drafted juju personally in a home league, Mike, I really hope juju's the guy. You know, he's one of those, I think, just super talented players. And if Big Ben is back, I do believe juju is going to have the breakup.

[Andy Holloway]

The Steelers are wild. They're wild. There's two layers of questions. There's do we get the AB style, 5,000 passing yards, Big Ben offense. That's layer one. And then who's Big Ben's favorite guy? Which should be juju. If they can get some guys extending down the field. James Washington, take the top off, let juju work underneath. It's going to be interesting in Pittsburgh. All right. Tyrell Williams, diagnosed with a torn labrum he says he's going to attempt to play through it. That is not good news. He tried to play through some injury last year, basically went into fantasy irrelevance. They've got Brian Edwards, they've got Henry Ruggs, they've got Hunter Renfro, they've got Darren Waller.

[Al Borland]

Yeah, it is absolutely rookie time for the Las Vegas Raiders being the hugest bump up here is Brian Edwards who has we look for the what's been dubbed the drumbeat in fantasy football of the. You want the drumbeat to be sustained and grow louder over time, over the off season, over training camp and the player who has risen the most like that that beat is going. It has been Brian Edwards. This was before Tyrell Williams was had the torn labrum in his shoulder. So now the opportunity is even greater for a player who has been impressing. Derek Carr has been gushing about Brian Edwards. He has absolutely moved into that later round. You want to take a rookie wide receiver. It's not generally, it's not my favorite draft strategy. I don't like going after these rookies, especially this year is very bizarre. But like Jalen Rager, Jerry Judy, like Brian Edwards is reaching that category of I'm willing to take my last positional pick on Brian Edwards. See what happens.

[Jason Moore]

I agree with you that he is the big beneficiary here of Tyrell Williams possibly being injured or hampered or slowed down by the shoulder. The question still remains on this team if you're taking a rookie wide receiver, have you made the switch from Rugs to Brian Edwards? Are you still taking Rugs first?

[Al Borland]

Man, I it's probably. I think we. Last time I answered this I think it was still Rugs.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's still Rugs for me.

[Al Borland]

I still lean as Rugs. You got to go with the first round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

I think Eileen Edwards.

[Al Borland]

But. But I don't blame people for.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe we see the floor.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I just think that I want the volume shot, not the big play shot. I think Edwards is just bigger, faster, stronger. Well, not fast, not fast enough. Yeah, it's definitely bigger, stronger and more of a refined route tree. I think I would go that direction as a personal preference of what I want on my team. It depends on where, you know where this guy factors into your wide receiver core. I think I do want to remind people because we lose this completely with all of this Raiders talk and their opportunity. John Paulson tweeted earlier this month, a reminder. Derek Carr finishes the number 15 fantasy quarterback last year he lost Antonio Brown right before the season began. He lost Tyrell Williams during the season. They've added Rugs, they've added Edwards. They have. You know, you saw what Renfro did at the end of the year. Williams was really never right last year. I think Carr is interesting. I think he's ahead of Big Ben on my rankings.

[Al Borland]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

In a super flex. I can see Derek Carr being relevant as he is. I've said this before, he's my favorite target for a third quarterback because that's basically in the range where he's being drafted. He is being forgotten and left for dead. But you know, he's had Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper on the same team.

[Andy Holloway]

Before and he was an MVP candidate that year.

[Jason Moore]

He was an mvp but not for fantasy. He's never been a quarterback one in fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's never finished the year that way. He has. Paulson also pointed out severe home away splits over the last two years for Derek Carr. Sixteen and a half fantasy points at home and the idea that maybe with the COVID situation and the fan situation, he may just not be as great on the road. All right. Alex Smith has not shown he's in a position to really challenge for the quarterback job according to ESPN's junkime.

[Al Borland]

We'll see.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we will see. I think obviously this team, if it's close, this team I imagine wants to go with the future of the franchise.

[Al Borland]

Yeah, I would imagine they go with Haskins, give him every chance to to either take the job or lose the job before they make the switch to Alex Smith. Before we get into today's breakouts, want to thank today's sponsor. Hello Fresh.

[Jason Moore]

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[Al Borland]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Al Borland]

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[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to get us into the breakouts, but first I want to just make sure we share this sweet off season hype. Here's the quote from Steelers camp. Oh practice after practice, the rookie is making non rookie like plays after running non rookie like routes, making non rookie like catches.

[Jason Moore]

I feel like I know who it has to be, but it could be. It could be two. It could be two guys.

[Al Borland]

You have you Please, please, please. You have to give it to me.

[Andy Holloway]

It's Chase.

[Al Borland]

Yes. Yeah. Chase Claypool, baby. Let's go all in on Juju.

[Andy Holloway]

Add another player to the mix.

[Al Borland]

I that's good man.

[Jason Moore]

Get Juju back in that slot.

[Al Borland]

Honestly, I was I reached for Chase Claypool in our rookie draft. This is why I'm so excited. I took him knowing in my heart like Chase Claypool is, he'll take some time because you had all the hula blue so out of Notre Dame. Just a giant man off the charts. Athletically you're talking height, weight and speed. Score is absolutely ridiculous for Chase Claypool. Lower production for lower college production because he's from the Notre Dame system and I thought it would take some time.

[Andy Holloway]

But do you consider James Washington Washington to be a hit or a miss for the Steelers draft?

[Al Borland]

I think we don't know yet.

[Jason Moore]

He is.

[Al Borland]

He's the un song hero right now.

[Andy Holloway]

It's really important Mike because they go every other on hits with their wide receivers. Oh then so if he's a miss totals a super total buff.

[Al Borland]

Very scientific.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Breakout time.

[Jason Moore]

Breakouts.

[Andy Holloway]

Breakouts Bus chase Claypool Breakouts Bus value sleepers this week on the show we have done some early breakout pick shows back in June. I am curious if you I'm going to ask real quick before we get into it. We each picked one for today. You can see all of our UDK breakouts@ultimate draft kit.com in mid June. Jason Hollywood Brown, I feel like you are still on board.

[Jason Moore]

I would agree he would be my pick today except he's already a my guy. Go back and listen to Thursday's episode.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike, you had Daniel Jones. Are you still in from mid June?

[Al Borland]

Yes, I am.

[Andy Holloway]

I had Raheem Mostert.

[Al Borland]

Daniel yoked Jones.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you've yoked yourself together with him for this season.

[Jason Moore]

I know that Raheem Most still in on Raheem Mostert?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think so. I think so.

[Al Borland]

Less so. A little bit less so is it the Jerick McKinnon?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I don't want more bodies back there getting handed the ball. But Mostert's camp reports have compensated for that McKinnon hype. Moster has been one of the best players at 49ers.

[Al Borland]

It does seem like he has taken the starting job which was this very bizarre.

[Andy Holloway]

They did.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Al Borland]

They changed the upped his pay. But the anomaly of last year where Tevin Coleman was the starter every single week and then the guy who was better was Raheem Moster. It's like the the sixth man in the NBA is better than your starter. Like, but we need him to be the sixth man.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they're one of the teams that keep things very close to the vest as well. Like Kyle Shanahan values not putting things out into the media, which is going to be interesting to follow this year. But yeah, I think I'm still in on it. I'm looking up at the if you're watching on YouTube, there's a graphic up here.

[Al Borland]

Got a breakout.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike and I are behind bars.

[Al Borland]

I always think of the old like arcade Atari game Breakout.

[Andy Holloway]

I think of the Kool Aid man.

[Jason Moore]

I think that one actually makes the Most sense. It's like, bam, I'm here now. What's up? Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Do we have.

[Al Borland]

Can we get Al Borland?

[Andy Holloway]

You're not on the. You don't have that intro voice ready, do you? Okay. He's shaking his head no. He can't say no.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

He doesn't want to change. Change our view of. Oh, yeah. All right. Breakout candidates. I'm not going first. Jason's going first.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going first.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, my. Oh me. Oh, my.

[Jason Moore]

Well, let's start here. Yeah, I love it. Look, it's, it's a little bit deeper. We've been talking about, you know, obviously are my guys, tons of huge breakout stars, Terry McClure and Marquis Brown, who we really believe in. But this is someone that I've been rising on. And part of this came. I talked yesterday about. I went and I watched Drew Locke tape to see what I actually believe. And it convinced me that I think Noah Fant is this year's breakout tight end. You have a lot of things in his favor, namely the fact that Noah Fant is a freak of nature athlete. We're not talking, you know, but on your sunglasses.

[Andy Holloway]

If you go to the player profile on our website for Noah Fant, he's.

[Jason Moore]

In the Saquon Barkley range. I mean, the only. He's ahead of George.

[Al Borland]

We call it the Chase Claypool Range now, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

You wish. Look, Noah Fant is not only a superstar athlete, but he was drafted to be an important receiving option. His big problem coming out of college was blocking. He was, you know, that was like a weakness. Even though he's a super strong guy, he was known as a pass catching tight end. And you, you know, in years past, those guys would drop in the draft, but he was selected number 20 overall and he was pretty good. He finished as the tight end 16. Now that didn't, that didn't win people. You know, last year he was mostly irrelevant, but that's what rookie tight ends do. We talk about that a lot. Rookie tight ends pretty much don't ever break up. Evan Ingram had a good rookie season, you know, pretty much end of list. That was the 13th best finish in the last 20 years for a rookie tight end and it was the sixth best finish for a first rounder. So he showed enough flashes, big breakaway plays. I watched when I was watching Drew Locke, I watched a lot of shout out to Denver the city because their coverage of King.

[Andy Holloway]

Nice weather.

[Jason Moore]

Well, yes, but no, no, like they. I see why we have.

[Al Borland]

How you doing?

[Jason Moore]

Denver Broncos fans Always writing in so passion. They clearly have an extremely passionate fan base. Because I'm watching.

[Al Borland]

It's the oxygen. They're not getting enough.

[Jason Moore]

They must not be. But it's also the media. The media there was doing such a great job. You could basically watch their training camps. They had Peyton Manning sitting in there for an hour where they're showing the broadcasting the camp and the practice. It was really cool. Watch a lot of it. And I saw several plays designed for Fant and several plays where when he got the ball, boom, he's gone. You know, look, Fant had the second highest yards per reception 14.1 for a rookie tight end over the last 25 years. So the top he had a couple.

[Andy Holloway]

Hundred and thirty yard receptions.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. And you want to know who had the number one since he was number two the last 25 years? Mark Andrews. Okay, so there are a lot of things here that say this is a year two leap for a special player who is on an offense that could take a step forward. And the nice thing is because you don't expect him to be higher than third in targets at least I don't for his team. I think he can get up around 80 or 90 targets in this offense as, as a, as a ceiling. But he's the type of player who could be extremely efficient. You know, you saw last year Jared Cook just dominate with these 19 yard per receptions, tons of touchdowns. That's what I see could happen for Noah Fant. And if I have to take my shot on him or TJ Hawkinson or one of these young tight ends to break out, I am calling for the breakout on Noah Fant.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he will have to take the step forward in year two. But I'm with you. I mean you and I have both have him inside of our top 10 at the position. I love the breakdown. What would you consider a fantastic finish for him? What's the ceiling?

[Jason Moore]

I think he needs to be top five. I think a breakout has to be top five at tight end.

[Andy Holloway]

That'll be tough.

[Jason Moore]

It will be tough.

[Andy Holloway]

But the volume, the volume will be the.

[Jason Moore]

I could easily see him having eight or more touchdowns which would put him up in that category.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh my. Oh my. What about you, Mike? You are, you are not calling for the breakout, at least based on the.

[Al Borland]

Range for Noah Fan. I can.

[Andy Holloway]

Can you see the path?

[Al Borland]

Oh, 100%. I can see the path. What's wild? And maybe we just have, you know, we've blocked it out from previous years, but this year in particular, when you look at the Tight ends with ranked 7 through 20 you go oh yeah, I can see the path for almost every single one of these guys. Maybe we get like a renaissance period here for the tight ends and we can get out of there.

[Andy Holloway]

Probably not.

[Al Borland]

Look, I'm trying to bring hope to the people over here and you're just squashing it down.

[Andy Holloway]

Well every year, I mean I think you're going to have the breakout tight ends and then you're going to have the disappointments like OJ Howard last year that was supposed to be the big breakout. But I.

[Al Borland]

You don't have to take no offense with a fifth round pick.

[Jason Moore]

No, that's what I love and that's part of why I picked him. It's not just because I think he's worthy of a fifth round pick. It's because he has the path to breaking out and he costs you nothing. No offense is not being drafted. At least in dynasty leagues he is. But in a redraft league, Noah Fan is a double digit pick.

[Andy Holloway]

The major breakout candidates at tight end. What I look for are those big play capabilities because that is a differentiator from being the just down in distance first down weapon. Last year he had a 75 yard reception in one game, a 48 yard reception, a 43 yard reception. Reminds me of the Mark Andrews, the George Kittles, those type of players. That kind of upside I'm on board for. Would you if you were going to lock somebody into your lineup today, like you don't get a change amount. This is a best ball type of question. Are you locking Jonu or are you locking Phantom? Jason?

[Jason Moore]

I would lock Phantom because while I think Joe News week to week baseline could be a little bit higher, I don't think Jonu has the games that you know end up with 125 yards and a touchdown the way that Noah Fant can can have a weak winning performance.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, my breakout candidate that I'm going to bring forward today, it's Ronald.

[Al Borland]

Stinking Jones, emphasis on the middle part.

[Andy Holloway]

Ronald Jones, I think he has just an incredible opportunity this year. He's being drafted as the RB29 last season he finishes, he finishes the RB26 last season. You know what he did that on? He did that on 36% of his team's snaps, 36% last season starter and Peyton Barber is gone. Ronald Jones is the goal line back. And I want to draw your attention in particular to what the primary ball carrier does for Tom Brady offenses. The opportunities that they have over the last going back to 2014, the lead running back for Tom Brady. I mean great opportunities inside the red zone team rushing touchdowns inside the five. Jonas Gray 10 carries inside the five. Sony Michelle double digit touchdowns all the way back to 2014 for the lead ball carrier for Tom Brady's offense. Ronald Jones had four of those opportunities last year. Four chances inside the five. All four were touchdowns for Ronald Jones. You look at what's taken place in camp, Keyshawn Vaughn is getting the Bruce Arians always treats his rookies this way treatment. He's irrelevant to me. He is when Bruce Arians doesn't mince words. Yeah. What's his role? He's punt returner maybe. Maybe special teams. David Johnson got the same treatment when Chris Johnson was the guy. And I think the difference in talent between Ronald Jones and the other weapons that they have, I mean the Sean McCoy is there. Yeah. But Ronald Jones was a very, very good runner. A high percentage of his runs over 10 yards. He had breakaway capabilities and he is bulked up. He's gotten stronger and looks the part. I know he doesn't catch a lot of passes, but when he catches passes he does a lot with them. He was I think over 9 per catch last year.

[Al Borland]

That's very impressive.

[Andy Holloway]

He was also very reliable in terms of targets to catches in the at the end of game, something bruise Aarons needs. They get caught 12 or 13 fourth quarter passes. He's not getting a lot of chances there but he's so explosive that when he does get them, you know, it's like Derek Henry a little bit. You know, Henry doesn't get a ton of opportunities in the passing game, but he finds a way to do a lot with them. If Ronald Jones is the guy for Tom Brady, double digit touchdowns is a very reasonable projection for him and that will outpace RB29 by a lot.

[Jason Moore]

I know that we have a lot of folklore and listeners who are more seasonal, they don't necessarily listen all off season which upgrade. Upgrade your fantasy. Listen to the off season. But if you're just coming back and you're waiting for me to jump all over Andy and be like but Ronald Jones sucks, then you have missed what I've been talking about this offseason. I've gone back, I've watched the tape and I am in. I'm in on Ronald Jones at running back 29. The opportunity versus the cost, the risk versus reward is outstanding and I am happy to draft Ronald Jones where he's going right now for the chance of the goal line, for the chance of a true Breakout. It is a nebulous situation there where if they just decide to kind of give him a little bit more of that third down work, he can, he can vault up. I don't expect that, but I think he's going to be a great depth piece and very much outdo his ADP.

[Andy Holloway]

4Th highest yards after the catch at the running back position last season in doing, doing it on 36% of snaps, it's kind of ridiculous. So if we expect the offense to move, I think you're going to need him to score touchdowns, but I think he could do it.

[Al Borland]

All right, my breakout pick, I'm going with, I am going with the other rookie running back that people are targeting, Jonathan Taylor for the Indianapolis Colts. And the reason for this, I have bumped him way up in my rankings and it's, it's go time.

[Andy Holloway]

It's time to make 17 up to 17 for Mike.

[Al Borland]

It's time to make the stand on who you are in on who you are out on. And I believe in the talents of Jonathan Taylor. Thomas.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Al Borland]

Look.

[Andy Holloway]

What an actor.

[Al Borland]

Yes. One of the best covers of teen bop of all time. I mean, the comp for Jonathan Taylor is the Incredible Hulk. If you're going to compare him to anybody else in the universe, the Colts traded up to get him. When a team trades up for a running back, you have a huge hit rate of success on top of he was a second round pick. So they traded up in the second to go and get him. You had Jim Ursay before the draft, there was reports that Marlon Mack, they're working on a contract extension. Ursay went out of his way to say, oh, that's not true. And that's a really strange thing for the owner of a team to come and say, no, we're not actually going to give him an extension. In college, Jonathan Taylor averaged over 2,000 rushing yards a year. And okay, that's pretty good. Let's talk about the pass catching. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is not the best pass catching running back in this, this group of rookies, but he still had a 10% target share in the final year and he gets Philip Rivers. Over the last two years, Philip Rivers has sent an average of 28% of his targets to Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckler. And I want to remind people, Melvin Gordon, okay, let me just ask this, is Melvin Gordon a pass catching running back?

[Andy Holloway]

You're saying is he like a prototypical pass catching running back?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Al Borland]

Just when you think of Melvin Gordon.

[Andy Holloway]

I do, I do.

[Jason Moore]

Catches the ball in the NFL? Yes.

[Al Borland]

Yeah. He wasn't used like that in college. In Wisconsin you had so his sophomore year, two receptions. Junior year, one reception. Then he shot up to 19 his final year. Jonathan Taylor had 26 last year. Like he, like I said, not the most fluid. Compared to the other guys, I think he's pretty fluid.

[Andy Holloway]

But I don't actually worry about his skill set as a pass catcher at all. I watched all of his training camp tape. I watched all of his route running, I watched all of his catches. He wants to prove that he's that guy. I don't worry about that one bit.

[Jason Moore]

I am so glad you're saying that. Even better, chime in, because he is a good pass catcher like he is.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

When I watch, I think he's more.

[Andy Holloway]

Than a capable pass catcher.

[Jason Moore]

Go watch Leonard Fournette's combine drills and then watch Jonathan Taylor's combine drills and you go, oh, one of them has that little hitch, that little securing the.

[Andy Holloway]

Ball giddy up called the Howard.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Al Borland]

It's called the Ronald Jones.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean that's fair. But no, Jonathan Taylor looks great when he catches the ball.

[Andy Holloway]

My question is not whether he can do it, it's he has to be. They have to use him that way.

[Al Borland]

And in my response that is, Philip Rivers will. Even if Jonathan Taylor doesn't turn into the third down guy, let's say Nahim Hines is the guy. Excellent third down back. That's a prototypical pass catching. Running back Melvin Gordon was getting receptions on first and second down because that's where Philip Rivers go, goes with the ball. It's behind the best offensive line in football. Yes, Marlon Mack is there, but reading through the coach speak, how I am interpreting it is they're saying, yeah, Marlon Mac's a starter, but we're going to ride the hot hand. They're leaving the crack there for Jonathan Taylor comes out. Week one looks much better than Marlon Mack in the realm of possibilities and it's Jonathan Taylor as the starter from here on out. I am all in on Taylor.

[Andy Holloway]

I love the point that you made though to start your argument. You absolutely have to draw a line in the sand with Jonathan Taylor and the draft capital and what you're willing to do now you've. You reached a different conclusion than the one I reached. But you have to do it now. I am. You made me want to make a formal statement that I am. I'm out on the rookie season of Jonathan Taylor.

[Al Borland]

Fair.

[Andy Holloway]

I. Everything that I've read around camp, I know, it's, it's, it's it is what it is. But Marlon Max had an outstanding camp yesterday. Incredible day, big runs. Naim Heinz been the most active running back in camp. Jonathan Taylor is a specimen, one that I think will be put a little bit on layaway for next season. So I'm officially drawing my line on the not enough work. Great player, can catch the ball. Won't get enough this year. Will disappoint you. Mike is all in. Moved him up to 17.

[Jason Moore]

And I would be far more on the Mike side. I believe in the talent. And while I agree with what Andy's saying to start the season, I do think it will be a 1, 2, 3 punch with those three backs by the midway point when the playoff push is happening and they need to win games, he is their best player by not a small margin. And this is coming from someone who believed in Marlon Mack as a good running back. When they were on the clock with their first pick in the second round. They were him and Hawking. They did. They said it was tough between Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, but they looked at their team, right? I mean, they needed another wide receiver. That wide receiver, too, has been a catastrophe. Whereas they have Marla mack. They have 90 mines. So they went Pittman. And then they're like, we've made a mistake. I still. Our team is better with Jonathan Taylor. Traded up just a couple spots later and grabbed them. I'm. I'm in. I.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's an interesting parallel.

[Jason Moore]

He's just too good.

[Andy Holloway]

He's very good. And like I said, Marlon Max had a great camp. How much do you see this situation like? I see the Ravens backfield in maybe a similar light. Mark Ingram is going to have one more year there. J.K. dobbins waiting in the wings here. You have Marlon Mack on a contract year. You guys both think they'll make the transition sooner because obviously you're both in on Ingram. You're not in on J.K. dobbins in the same fashion. Even though he's got a massive. He's got a quarterback advantage over Jonathan Taylor. He's got a similar offensive line situation. He's got a lot of talent, but you don't see those situations.

[Al Borland]

He has the quarterback edge in terms of the Ravens are going to score a whole bunch of points. Jonathan Taylor has the quarterback edge of that. His quarterback targets the running back a.

[Andy Holloway]

Bunch over under 20 receptions in his rookie season for Jonathan Taylor.

[Jason Moore]

Ooh.

[Andy Holloway]

Because I will take the under on that, and that will not get it done for me.

[Al Borland]

I have. I have the over statted.

[Jason Moore]

Out.

[Al Borland]

So I will take the over.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. You guys want to, want to get into a little bit of mailbag?

[Al Borland]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

I got a. Find the.

[Al Borland]

You got to find the book.

[Jason Moore]

Gotta find the drop while you're looking for it. I. Mailbag, mail bag.

[Andy Holloway]

Apologies. When I find it, I find it.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, sure, I see that now I have Jonathan Taylor statted out for 25 receptions, so I'm taking the over.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Still disappointing.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, well, this is, this would be a fun one to watch. I mean, he's such a talented player. There will be either great joy or great frustration when it comes to Jonathan Taylor's rookie, possibly both.

[Jason Moore]

We're doing our fun family home league where we're getting people who've never played fantasy before. My wife was on the clock. She's never played. She, she, she needs a running back and she says who's someone that is like really talented but you don't maybe expect them to. You don't think they're going to score that much or be involved this year, but they're just really good. And I couldn't come up with anybody for a minute and then eventually I was like, oh, wait, Jonathan Taylor's amazing, but I don't expect him to have that role. And she drafted. So.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, mailbag question. Armin in Tucson, Arizona. Calvin Ridley or Hollywood Brown? Full ppr dynasty league. Okay. That's the real. I think we'd all take Ridley over Brown in a redraft. Do you take him over Brown in a dynasty? I do.

[Al Borland]

Calvin Ridley is 25. He will be turning 26 in December. Man, that is, that is a tough three year gap.

[Jason Moore]

Two and a half.

[Al Borland]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. What's hard is I'm going to start with the redraft. Side of it is the probability of being a top 15 wide receiver. I think that the probability still lies with Calvin Ridley despite him being the number two option at best on his team. We've, we recently talked about, you know, how it was impossible to see Chris Godwin overtaking Mike Evans. And honestly, it seems impossible right now to see Calvin Ridley overtaking Julio Jones. And so. But it's one of those things that certainly could.

[Jason Moore]

It will happen at some point.

[Al Borland]

At some point it will. Yes. Julio Jones had the same thing. Julio Jones had to overtake Roddy White, which seemed like an impossibility at one point anyway. So back to my point of the probability that Calvin Ridley is a top 15 wide receiver is higher than Marquis Brown. But Marquis Brown, his ceiling, if everything goes right, is higher. Than Calvin Ridley to me.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. All right. I think I see their ceiling. Similarly, my son faced down the A.J. brown vs. Calvin Ridley decision yesterday. How do you view, like if you throw him into the mix, AJ Brown, Hollywood Brown and Calvin Ridley in a.

[Jason Moore]

Dynasty, I would go AJ Brown first and then I, at this point, I would probably still take Calvin Ridley over Marquis Brown. You know my love for Marquis Brown. I would, I would like him. But the, you know, when you're in a dynasty startup draft, it's one of those things where the rookie drafts, you could take a little bit more shot, a little bit more risk, but you're going to have this team forever. And I really, when I'm in a dynasty startup, I'm going to take the known commodity over the higher upside if there's a questionable decision here. And I think we've just, we've seen more from Calvin Ridley. In two years of being able to command more targets, we have yet to see Hollywood necessarily stay on the field. I expect a breakout this year, but I don't want to just have my dynasty startup rosters be projections of the hopes and dreams. Hopes and dreams of the brightest future.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. Because there aren't always the brightest futures. Here is another spin on the question, though. Calvin Ridley percentage chance that he is better than Julio Jones this season. Nobody would have made that bet necessarily on Godwin over Evans. What odds do you, you know, Julio's 31, 32 years old. What odds do you give Calvin to be better? Fantasy wise, he's found a way in the end zone that Julio hasn't.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I would say 15%. And that's exactly how it come. It would be touchdowns. Ridley ends up with 10 touchdowns, Julio gets his six. And if they're close in receptions, obviously Julio will have the yardage. But you know, I think there is 15%.

[Al Borland]

I put it at about 10.

[Andy Holloway]

Julio Jones keeps his six touchdowns real close.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, these are my six and you can't have them.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's go to a voicemail. Question. Hey, ballers, this is Paul from Chicago. Big fan of the show. My question is what offense do you think can surprise people in 2020 and actually be very good for fantasy. Thanks, guys. Keep up the great work. Okay, so fantasy surprise for me.

[Jason Moore]

It is pretty easy and obvious. I'm going to give the second shout out to the Rockies, but I think Denver could be a fantasy surprise. If Cortland, Sutton and Jerry, Judy and Noah fan all come through. That means that Locke came through and that means that there's goal Line opportunities for Melvin Gordon. I think, you know, I've been very pessimistic on this offense until recently where I'm starting to see a path to where. Yeah, they, they. If they click, I think it will be a surprise and it will be really good if it clicks.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike, do you have a candidate that jumps out to you? I think the Raiders are in that category for me. I think more viable fantasy options in Las Vegas.

[Al Borland]

And I am going to go with something that would be a complete surprise, but it could happen and it's because I still believe in Sam Darnold. So I'm going to bring up the New York Jets. It was a. You have to throw last season out.

[Andy Holloway]

Lev Bell was in my. He was my initial entry for forgiveness.

[Al Borland]

Yeah, the dude had mono. I. Look, I get it. It's funny. It's funny that he had mono. He had a kissing disease that showed. Topanga.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, yes, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

See, that's why it's funny.

[Al Borland]

And I hope that Sam can look back now and laugh and be like, yeah, that was unfortunate.

[Andy Holloway]

But it happened all love and smooches from our side.

[Al Borland]

People can't get back into high school, sometimes for months, and this guy forced his way back onto an NFL field. There's no way that Sam Darnold was right and he showed. Oh, yes. Voice of public opinion. Yes. Is this number two? Yes. He has to overcome some things. But if you go up and going back into last off season, despite the hiring of Adam Gaze, people were. There was excitement for what Sam Darnold could do in his second year because his rookie year, you saw some things toward the end of the year. This is a growing quarterback. Maybe he really is a franchise.

[Andy Holloway]

He might physically have been growing, too, at that age.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's. No. That's no joke.

[Al Borland]

So that's. That's my. The one. That would surprise me.

[Jason Moore]

That would. But I see what you're saying.

[Al Borland]

I'm not completely out on Sam Darnold.

[Jason Moore]

Yet, but I feel like that the question would have to be which one would shock you? Not surprise you, but shock you. I want to throw one other team out because I think this is a great question. There can be a lot of fantasy gold to be found by the entirety of NFL teams turning around one way or the other. Surprise downsides. But post hype sleeper as a team, I think last year I called for the collapse, but the Browns this year I think could be much, much better. I like Chubb. I like Hunt. I'm curious about Odell Beckham. If he's Going to be back. And Austin Hooper apparently has been, despite my, you know, calling for how much I do not believe in his fantasy value this year he's been dominating camps by all beat writers, you know, reporting. So they're certainly a post hype sleeper and they don't cost what they did last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I agree with that. The jets popped into my head, you know, the contrast that is most frustrating for me and I think we talked about this in the studio a little bit. It's true of every sport. It's true of every great player. You have one, you know, it's talent, opportunity. It's also landing spot for these guys. Some players just end up in incredible situations, some don't. Josh Allen in Buffalo, you know, drafted in the same draft class as Sam Darnold. Darnold was drafted ahead of him. Most people believed in the talent of Sam Darnold far above Josh Allen. And, and, you know, Buffalo's done a better job of taking the player they drafted, equipping him with the kinds of weapons that complement him. You take the worst deep ball thrower and give him the best deep ball receiver in football. Seems like a nice way to help bridge the gap on a challenge.

[Al Borland]

Yes, they've been strong.

[Andy Holloway]

Give him John Brown, let him run the football. And here I go and I look at the jets and I say, boy, you gave him Jameson Crowder.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, no, Bashad Perryman.

[Andy Holloway]

And you just haven't quite equipped him. Maybe this offensive line's better, maybe it's not. It will go a long way to helping Sam Darnold not make mistakes, not see them ghosts. But you kind of wish that you could almost put all the players into a computer and run a simulation as them as the starter for every football team and see who's the real best player. Like, you can't do that.

[Jason Moore]

I love Darnold is better than his situation and honestly, that's a good way to put it. Next year, I think Darnold, like I would be willing to target Darnold very cheap in a dynasty league because I think when he is freed of the number two, which will be next year, make no mistake, you can't.

[Al Borland]

You can never stop a number two from free.

[Jason Moore]

You can always. You can only stop for so long.

[Al Borland]

Once it's time, it's time and then.

[Jason Moore]

It'S released and oh my, I think, I think that lightening that load will be good for Sam Darnold.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the truth, though. You can get finished by your circumstances too. David Carr is the biggest example in my mind, recent history. You get pummeled for three straight years, you lose your confidence. You're still young, you've not had the opportunity. Then it's hard to. I mean, anybody think Josh Rosen is going to have a fair shake the rest of his career?

[Jason Moore]

Nope.

[Andy Holloway]

Number 10 overall pick, and he was.

[Al Borland]

In a really bad situation in Arizona.

[Andy Holloway]

And then it's over. I mean, I don't think Sam Darnold, I mean, they could bring in another coach next year and that could change things.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I'm saying.

[Andy Holloway]

This is a make or break year for me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And you know, he could go the way of Ryan Tannehill, who took a while to get out of the shadow of Adam Gase and then was like, oh, all right.

[Al Borland]

And then he got the bag.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. All right. We want to thank Pristine Auction. Speaking of Noah fan, a signed Broncos mini helmet. Noah Fan 55.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

So you can check out pristineauction.com use the code ballers and get a ten dollar credit. That'll do it for today's episode. It was a good one.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Al Borland]

We will see you tomorrow, Foot Clan. Be safe. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.