Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode Title: Breakouts + Players We Forgive, Surprise Offenses
Release Date: August 25, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers kicked off the episode with a warm welcome to both new and returning listeners, expressing gratitude for the growing community and encouraging reviews on various platforms. The hosts outlined the episode's focus on breakout candidates, players deserving forgiveness from the previous season, and surprise offenses that could impact the upcoming fantasy football landscape.

Players We Forgive

The segment centered around identifying players who underperformed last season due to various factors but show potential for improvement.

James Conner (Pittsburgh Steelers)

• Al Borland highlighted James Conner as a player worth forgiving:

  "If James Conner is healthy, he's going to be a complete draft steal." [04:03]

• Discussion Points:
  • Conner's performance was hampered by limited opportunities and poor quarterback play.
  • His health remains a key concern, but his talent positions him as a valuable asset if he stays healthy.
  • Andy Holloway noted:

    "He's the kind of player that if he's the guy and he's healthy, he's going to be much higher in Final fantasy finish for 2020 or he's going to be hurt." [05:38]

David Montgomery (Chicago Bears)

• Andy Holloway advocated for drafting Montgomery despite last season's subdued performance:

  "I think he's going to vault up. I think he's going to be a great depth piece and very much outdo his ADP." [36:40]

• Discussion Points:
  • Montgomery's role as the Bears' sole goal-line back presents significant touchdown potential.
  • Improvements in his offensive role and conditioning could translate to increased fantasy production.
  • Al Borland acknowledged Montgomery's previous lack of fantasy output but remains optimistic:

    "He just had such little fantasy production that it’s difficult to go back on." [06:57]

Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles)

• Jason Moore expressed willingness to forgive Ertz for his underperformance in the first half of the previous season:

  "I am forgiving Zach." [09:06]

• Discussion Points:
  • Ertz's early struggles were offset by his overall talent and potential for resurgence.
  • Contract considerations and team dynamics indicate a strong future performance.
  • Jason Moore emphasized:

    "He’s going to be a really valuable tight end." [09:59]

Breakout Candidates

Identifying players poised to exceed expectations, the hosts discussed several key breakout prospects.

Noah Fant (Denver Broncos, Tight End)

• Jason Moore championed Fant as the breakout tight end of the season:

  "He is this year's breakout tight end." [27:38]

• Key Insights:
  • Fant's athleticism and improved offensive schemes could elevate his role.
  • His yards per reception (14.1) ranks second among rookie tight ends over the past 25 years.
  • High touchdown upside with potential for 8+ touchdowns.

Ronald Jones II (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Running Back)

• Andy Holloway highlighted Ronald Jones as a prime breakout RB:

  "I think he has just an incredible opportunity this year." [33:11]

• Key Insights:
  • Jones is expected to secure significant goal-line touches, increasing touchdown potential.
  • Enhanced role in passing game despite limited catches last season.
  • Jason Moore supported the pick:

    "I am happy to draft Ronald Jones where he's going right now for the chance of the goal line, for the chance of a true Breakout." [35:13]

Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts, Running Back)

• Al Borland and Jason Moore discussed Taylor's potential as a breakout RB:

  "I have bumped him way up in my rankings and it's, it's go time." [36:40]

• Key Insights:
  • Taylor's impressive college production positions him as a high-upside pick.
  • Improved pass-catching skills and involvement in the Colts' offense could boost his fantasy value.
  • Contrasting opinions on his immediate impact versus long-term potential.

Surprise Offenses

The hosts analyzed NFL offenses that could unexpectedly perform well, benefiting fantasy managers.

Denver Broncos

• Jason Moore sees Denver as a potential fantasy surprise if key players perform:

  "If they click, I think it will be really good if it clicks." [48:37]

• Discussion Points:
  • Integration of players like Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant could enhance offensive efficiency.
  • Potential increase in Melvin Gordon's goal-line opportunities.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Andy Holloway identified the Raiders as a surprise offense:

  "I think more viable fantasy options [are] in Las Vegas." [49:17]

• Key Insights:
  • Handling Tyrell Williams' injury opens opportunities for Brian Edwards and other rookies.
  • Improved quarterback play with Derek Carr could elevate the entire offense's performance.

New York Jets

• Al Borland expressed unexpected potential for the Jets:

  "I am going to bring up the New York Jets. ... I still believe in Sam Darnold." [49:34]

• Discussion Points:
  • Sam Darnold's growth and potential team improvements could lead to a better offensive output.
  • Despite past struggles, a favorable environment might unlock his fantasy value.

Cleveland Browns

• Jason Moore and Al Borland discussed the Browns as a post-hype sleeper:

  "I think last year I called for the collapse, but the Browns this year I think could be much, much better." [50:45]

• Key Insights:
  • Strong supporting cast with players like Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. enhances their offensive potential.
  • Austin Hooper's dominating training camp suggests improved tight end performance.

News and Notes

The hosts provided updates on player injuries and team developments that could influence fantasy decisions.

• Injuries:

  • Kenyan Drake (Arizona Cardinals): Spotted in a walking boot, raising concerns about his workload and availability.

    "It's precautionary." [12:42]

  • Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks): Exited practice early but showed improvement.

    "AJ Green resuming running on Monday." [14:43]

• Steelers:

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster: Anticipated to flourish with Ben Roethlisberger's return.

    "I do believe JuJu is going to have the break up." [15:11]

• Raiders:

  • Brian Edwards: Recognized as a major beneficiary of Tyrell Williams' potential injury.

    "He has absolutely moved into that later round." [17:35]

Mailbag: Listener Questions

Question: Calvin Ridley or Hollywood Brown? Full PPR Dynasty League.

• Response:
  • Jason Moore advised prioritizing Calvin Ridley over Hollywood Brown in dynasty redraft leagues due to Ridley's higher probability of being a top 15 wide receiver despite some uncertainty.

    "The probability of being a top 15 wide receiver is higher with Calvin Ridley." [45:02]

  • Al Borland echoed the sentiment, noting Ridley's consistency and higher floor compared to Brown.

    "Calvin Ridley is a priority over Marquis Brown." [45:13]

  • Andy Holloway discussed the ceiling differences, acknowledging that while Brown may offer higher upside, Ridley is the safer and more reliable pick.

Additional Mailbag:
Question: What offense can surprise people in 2020 and be very good for fantasy?

• Jason Moore: Denver Broncos if key players like Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy maximize their roles.
• Al Borland: New York Jets, surprising with Sam Darnold's potential improvement.
• Andy Holloway: Cleveland Browns, leveraging the talents of Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr.

Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers wrapped up the episode by reiterating the importance of considering both upside and reliability when drafting players. They emphasized staying informed about player developments and team dynamics to make informed fantasy decisions. Listeners were encouraged to engage with the community and take advantage of available resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit.

Notable Quotes

• Al Borland on James Conner:

  "If James Conner is healthy, he's going to be a complete draft steal." [04:03]

• Jason Moore on Zach Ertz:

  "He’s going to be a really valuable tight end." [09:59]

• Andy Holloway on Ronald Jones:

  "I think he has just an incredible opportunity this year." [33:11]

• Jason Moore on Noah Fant:

  "He is this year's breakout tight end." [27:38]

• Andy Holloway on Jonathan Taylor:

  "I am officially drawing my line on the not enough work. Great player, can catch the ball. Won't get enough this year. Will disappoint you." [41:10]

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the Fantasy Footballers' episode, highlighting key discussions on player forgiveness, breakout candidates, and surprising offensive units that could shape the upcoming fantasy football season.