Busts + Buy or Sell: Hot Takes Edition

Summary

Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast Episode: Busts + Buy or Sell: Hot Takes Edition
Release Date: August 21, 2019

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Episode Overview

In this engaging episode of Fantasy Footballers, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright dive deep into the realms of fantasy football, focusing on potential busts and bold buy or sell predictions for the 2019 season. The trio offers astute analysis, shares strong opinions, and provides matchup-winning advice to help listeners dominate their fantasy leagues.

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Understanding Busts

Andy Holloway begins by defining what constitutes a "bust" in fantasy football. He explains that busts are projections where players underperform relative to their Average Draft Position (ADP). Unlike breakouts or sleepers, busts carry a negative connotation, often disappointing fantasy managers who drafted them.

Andy Holloway [02:05]: "Busts are the ones the biggest statement. It feels like... just a negative connotation."

Mike Wright adds that busts are hard to project because they represent players who were highly touted but fail to deliver fantasy value, either due to performance issues or injuries.

Mike Wright [02:27]: "You're saying that player sucks. You're saying they won't return fantasy value compared to where the market has them going."

Jason Moore emphasizes the importance of avoiding busts, as they can waste valuable draft picks and bench spots.

Jason Moore [03:02]: "Busts are... the players to avoid. That is so important in fantasy football."

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Buy or Sell: Bold Predictions

The hosts present bold predictions from Andy's recent article, encouraging listeners to decide whether to buy or sell these picks based on their insights.

1. Sam Darnold vs. Mitch Trubisky

• Prediction: Sam Darnold will have more QB1 weeks than Mitch Trubisky in 2019.

  Mike Wright [06:11]: "Sam Darnold is a better quarterback than Mitch Trubisky in my opinion."

  Jason Moore [06:37]: "Because fantasy scoring is so in the favor of rushing for quarterbacks, Mitch Trubisky is a great runner."

• Outcome: Both hosts opt to sell this prediction, citing Trubisky's rushing ability as a significant factor in fantasy scoring.

2. Rams Wide Receivers' Fantasy Performance

• Prediction: All three Rams wide receivers will rank outside the top 12 in total fantasy points.

  Mike Wright [07:51]: "They're all not in the top 12. That means that three Rams are in the range of 13 to 20."

  Jason Moore [08:09]: "I like the prediction. It could very easily happen."

• Outcome: Both hosts decide to sell, believing that at least one Rams receiver will break into the top 12.

3. Dalvin Cook Leading NFC in Rushing Yardage

• Prediction: Dalvin Cook will lead the NFC in rushing yardage in a healthy 2019 season.

  Mike Wright [08:33]: "Dalvin Cook stays healthy, leads the NFC in total rushing yardage."

  Jason Moore [08:58]: "I don't think he's going to take over that role. He's a great third-down guy."

• Outcome: Both hosts agree to sell this prediction, questioning Cook's ability to outpace other NFC running backs.

4. Mo Ali Cox Touchdowns for the Colts

• Prediction: Mo Ali Cox will score twice as many touchdowns as Jack Doyle this season.

  Mike Wright [09:51]: "Mo Ali Cox, tight end, scores twice as many touchdowns, twice as many as Jack Doyle."

  Jason Moore [10:34]: "He's going to be a top QB1. Foot Clan will not partake in drafting Kareem Hunt."

• Outcome: Both hosts buy this prediction, recognizing Ali Cox's potential to surpass Doyle in touchdowns.

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News and Notes

The trio transitions to the latest news impacting fantasy football, sharing updates and insights that can influence draft strategies.

1. Dallas Cowboys' Extension for Jalen Smith

• Discussion: The Cowboys extended linebacker Jalen Smith's contract, surprising many who expected extensions for high-profile players like Dak Prescott or Ezekiel Elliott.

  Mike Wright [12:19]: "That's an excellent move for your defense... just a fish slap to the face for all of us."

2. Preseason Updates

• Darius Guyce: Expected to play in the Thursday preseason game against the Falcons, offering potential depth at his position.

• Derek Henry & Duke Johnson:

  • Henry: Resumed practicing after a calf injury.
  • Johnson: Returned to practice post-hamstring injury.

  Jason Moore [15:02]: "I would rather have Pollard for the upside that you start the season with a stud running back."

3. Ravens' Marquis Brown and Chargers' Dontrell Inman

• Marquis Brown: Rookie wide receiver showing promise but may not yield significant fantasy value this year.

  Andy Holloway [16:14]: "Marquis Brown right now is going to be a deep threat. Taking the top off at times, but fantasy wise, not this year."

• Dontrell Inman: Re-signed by the Chargers, potentially offering reliable depth but limited fantasy impact.

  Mike Wright [16:40]: "Inman had a fine year back in 2016... not really fantasy relevant."

4. David Montgomery and RB Hype

• Discussion: Encouraging excitement around rookie running back David Montgomery, highlighting his potential role and workload.

  Jason Moore [17:32]: "David Montgomery... he's in a good system, he's going to be used, and he's talented back."

  Andy Holloway [17:56]: "Montgomery should have more work from week one, guaranteed to him."

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Bust Picks Discussion

The hosts delve into specific players they believe to be bust picks for the upcoming season, providing detailed reasoning and analysis.

1. Damian Williams

• Perspective:

  • Andy Holloway argues that Williams is being drafted too high, citing his limited career usage and high risk due to potential regression.

    Andy Holloway [22:16]: "He's the player that represents the most risk at the running back position in his tier and that's bar none."

  • Mike Wright defends Williams, emphasizing his talent and the opportunity he has within the Chiefs' system.

    Mike Wright [27:18]: "Damian Williams is actually a talented running back... he might not be Carlos Hyde, but he's safer."

  • Jason Moore leans towards Williams busting, concerned about his consistency and reliance on maintaining a starting role.

    Jason Moore [26:59]: "If Damian Williams loses it for a moment, he might not get it back."

• Conclusion: Andy decides to categorize Damian Williams as a bust, whereas Mike maintains faith in his potential.

2. Kareem Hunt

• Prediction: Kareem Hunt will be a significant bust, largely due to his limited role and low fantasy output.

  Jason Moore [30:17]: "The game strategy of drafting Kareem Hunt is nonsensical."

  Jason Moore [31:11]: "You're not going to play him that week because you don't know what the role is... you're talking about week 11 now."

• Outcome: Both hosts agree to sell Hunt, warning listeners against drafting him despite his enticing name.

3. Russell Wilson

• Prediction: Russell Wilson will underperform relative to his ADP, experiencing a significant drop in passing touchdowns.

  Mike Wright [33:37]: "Russell Wilson is going to bust compared to his ADP."

  Mike Wright [36:01]: "I think Russell Wilson is now my QB1. Imagine that."

  Jason Moore [37:53]: "He's going to be a top 12 quarterback."

• Andy Holloway debates whether Wilson will continue his high performance or regress to more average numbers, but both hosts ultimately decide to sell Wilson.

4. Kerryon Johnson

• Prediction: Kerryon Johnson is likely to underperform due to durability concerns and limited role in the Lions' offense.

  Andy Holloway [38:11]: "He runs too upright. He might not hold up to the long haul."

  Jason Moore [41:01]: "I usually take opportunity over talent... This year I'm going with Kerryon."

• Outcome: Despite recognizing Johnson's talent, concerns about his durability and usage lead Andy to classify him as a bust, while Jason opts to buy into his potential.

5. James White

• Prediction: James White will fail to replicate his previous season's performance, struggling with a reduced workload and increased competition.

  Mike Wright [48:17]: "I just don't see a world where James White sees anywhere near the same workload that he received last year."

  Jason Moore [52:02]: "He had a 21.4 target share... It just doesn't add up."

• Outcome: Both hosts agree to sell James White, viewing him as a less reliable option compared to other available running backs.

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Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, the hosts remind listeners to access all 32 bold predictions on their website and utilize resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit to fine-tune their draft strategies. They also announce their collaboration with SiriusXM radio, offering an additional live show every Thursday from 5 to 7 PM Eastern.

Andy Holloway [55:30]: "Today's show brought to you by Mugsy Jeans... use the code footballers for $10 off."

Throughout the episode, the Fantasy Footballers provide a balanced mix of analytical insights and entertaining banter, ensuring that both seasoned and novice fantasy managers gain valuable knowledge to enhance their gaming experience.

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Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway [02:05]: "Busts are the ones the biggest statement. It feels like... just a negative connotation."

• Jason Moore [03:02]: "Busts are... the players to avoid. That is so important in fantasy football."

• Mike Wright [06:11]: "Sam Darnold is a better quarterback than Mitch Trubisky in my opinion."

• Jason Moore [30:17]: "The game strategy of drafting Kareem Hunt is nonsensical."

• Mike Wright [36:01]: "I think Russell Wilson is now my QB1. Imagine that."

• Andy Holloway [38:11]: "He runs too upright. He might not hold up to the long haul."

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For more detailed insights and to access the hosts' resources, visit the Fantasy Footballers website or follow them on Twitter.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, we got a great show for you today. I want to remind you about the Ultimate Draft Kit. We've been talking about all the features you get in the Ultimate Draft Kit and what makes it special for you for your team for draft day. I want to talk about the tiers. We talk about tier based rankings. You get that in the Ultimate Draft Kit. Tiers take your rankings to the next level. Tiers take players who we project to finish in similar in a similar range and we break them up into groups. You know, sometimes a player might be six or seven spots behind another player when really they're just as good of a pick. That's just one of the things you get in the Ultimate Draft Kit. You can learn about tears and a lot more at ultimate draft kit.com draft.

[Mike Wright]

With tears or end your draft in tears. Foot Clan and also, did you know that Spotify can be used in your car? Get all your favorite music now on the road with you and all your favorite podcasts as well. No need to switch between apps. Your daily drive is a brand new playlist, a mix of music and news made just for you. It's the best thing to happen in cars since the stereo. Take Spotify for a ride in your car today. Learn [e-mail] drive.

[Andy Holloway]

This is hall of Fame and Marshall Faulk and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, welcome in. Excited to be here. Excited to be with you. Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike the fantasy Hitman Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Hello.

[Andy Holloway]

We are the Fantasy Footballers and It is Wednesday, August 21st. We have a great show for you today. Have some buy or sell some news. Our individual bust picks for 2019.

[Jason Moore]

We're going to get heated, heated up.

[Mike Wright]

The gloves are coming off.

[Andy Holloway]

Busts are the most difficult of projections because the word bust just means different things to different people. So we'll try to qualify that. But when you talk about breakouts and sleepers and values, busts are the ones the biggest statement. It feels like.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And it's such an, it's a negative connotation.

[Mike Wright]

That's exactly the, that's the difference. We mean talking people up, that's fun. The potential of somebody. But the real, the real facts of fantasy football players you draft will disappoint. They will bust compared to their adp. They will just bust outright and maybe they get injured. Like there's so many variables and it's, it's rough to imbue that upon someone and just say, because it's not necessarily. You're saying that player sucks. You're saying they won't return fantasy value compared to where the market has them going.

[Jason Moore]

And I would just say that busts are, you know, the coin bust, the players to avoid. That is so important in fantasy football. I think that's more important than just the, the breakouts. If you look at drafts and you go through, maybe you've got certain picks in each round that are your favorite, you prefer this guy over that guy. But they're, they're both good options. It's really about avoiding the certain picks that are going to be like, oof, you wasted that. You wasted that pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's kind of the way I look at mine today is, do you know as a fantasy owner what you're actually getting with this player? A lot of the times we think we're going to get one thing. Our picks today will be us saying, we think you're going to get something else than you expect. There's no point in calling a 15th round guy a bust because nobody's expecting something from them.

[Jason Moore]

Your picks today are fascinating to me because they are the identical opposites of one another. Like the. It's so interesting because the. And we'll talk about it when we get to your actual bus picks. But I. They're just the inverse situations of one another. I'll explain that later.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm warning you, Jason. They're not in here to be contentious.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

They're not in here to be contrarian to you guys and what you believe, even though they are. That's not the purpose. The purpose is to try to color in maybe the other side of the argument because you guys are so bullish on a couple of players. And I'm convicted that these bus picks are right. And we'll see. We'll get into it. It is a Wednesday episode of the show, which means.

[Jason Moore]

Buy or sell. Presented by Pristine Auction.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Wednesdays, that means buy or sell. And today my Bold predictions article hit the website. Every year I put out, I sell. You're selling the article?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, is that what we were doing?

[Andy Holloway]

No, not yet, Mike. Just hang in there.

[Mike Wright]

I got to get the hang of this thing.

[Andy Holloway]

But the buyers sell. I'm sorry? The Bold predictions article. Every year I put it out. 32 predictions. They're meant to be spicy, they're meant to be extreme. Last year, a couple of them, you know, Mike Williams double digit touchdowns, that was one of the hot and spicy projections. That worked out. Josh Allen is going to be way more valuable than people think. They don't all hit. They're meant to be spicy, but they're not.

[Mike Wright]

Andy's lukewarm room temperature water takes lukewarm.

[Andy Holloway]

Locks of the season, but let's have some fun with them today. We're going to do buy or sell. You might sell all of them because they're bold predictions, but I'm going to bring a couple of them up. You guys tell me if you're buyer selling the bold prediction. We'll go through a few first one bold prediction from the Jets Sam Darnold has more QB1 weeks than Mitch Trubisky in 2019. Buy or sell.

[Mike Wright]

This one is tough because Sam Darnold doesn't have the mobility. He doesn't got the feet that Mitch Trubisky has shown off in the past. And you want to elevate yourself quickly to a quarterback one you rip off a 30 yard run or you just have four rushing attempts in a game, it's going to help that floor out so much. But Sam Darnold is a better quarterback than Mitch Trubisky in my opinion.

[Andy Holloway]

But is that a sell?

[Mike Wright]

I got to sell it just because of the feet of Trubisky.

[Jason Moore]

Same argument here. I love Sam Darnold. I've loved what I've seen this season. I agree that he's a better quarterback, but because fantasy scoring is so in the favor of rushing for quarterbacks, Mitch Trubisky is a great runner.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, are you drinking a water or a Yoo Hoo right now, Jason?

[Jason Moore]

I am drinking a water.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. I thought you pulled a Yoo Hoo out.

[Jason Moore]

I did, but I didn't want it to give me, you know, the frog throat. But I've got it already, so it.

[Andy Holloway]

Doesn'T really make a difference.

[Jason Moore]

Nothing makes a difference. I should not. I. You know what I should do?

[Andy Holloway]

There isn't really a milk product in a Yoo Hooray.

[Jason Moore]

No, I should just down a bunch of whole milk before the show. Please, no warm whole milk. Because maybe, maybe somehow that would help.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. You're selling the first one.

[Mike Wright]

It's like Drano. It pulls it all down.

[Andy Holloway]

Just try Drano.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, great idea.

[Mike Wright]

We do not endorse that.

[Andy Holloway]

Only if my bus comes true. Will he go the Drano route. All right, next one. Buy or sell. All three Rams wide receivers will outside the top 12 in total fantasy points.

[Mike Wright]

So you're going the route that they're all great. Yes, but none of them actually make it into the top 12?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Is it?

[Mike Wright]

Because to me, if this comes true, they're all not in the top 12. That means that three Rams are in the range of 13 to 20.

[Andy Holloway]

They're in the top 14, top 13 at that point.

[Mike Wright]

So it's certainly possible. But I think one of them is able to take the lead. All right, you're still finished in the. In top 12. I'm going to sell.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I like the prediction. It could very easily happen. We've talked about the O line struggles there, and, you know, if the offense does take a step back, this will clearly come true. But I like Robert Woods. I believe in him. So I'm going to stick with him being able to be in that top 12.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we'll go with one more bold prediction that you can both sell. Dalvin Cook leads the NFC in rushing yardage in a healthy 2019 season. To me, this is the last year Joe Mixon led the afc. This is the. I see that as the parallel here on the NFC side. I know he's got some pretty stiff competition.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he does.

[Andy Holloway]

At running back. But their commitment to the run. Dalvin Cook stays healthy, leads the NFC in total rushing yardage. Which doesn't mean he's the number one fantasy player, just means that consistently he's. He's getting the rock.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, step one of being the yardage leader on the ground is playing nearly a full season. That always helps, but, man, so that hasn't beaten out Saquon. The potential of Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott. Ezekiel Elliott who? Cabo, man. I mean, just, just hanging out, chilling in Cabo. I'm going to sell.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, I'm going to sell, but I want to buy one, so you need to.

[Mike Wright]

You read number two, read number two.

[Jason Moore]

Read number twoS, because I want to buy.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we'll do one more then. Despite fewer snaps, this is the Colts projection. Colts bold prediction for the year. Despite fewer snaps.

[Mike Wright]

Mo Ali, Gigantor.

[Andy Holloway]

Mo Ali Cox, tight end, scores twice as many touchdowns, twice as many as Jack Doyle this season.

[Mike Wright]

Now this, this is a struggle for me because I'm contractually obligated to buy all Gigantor propaganda. Number one, if you had said Eric Ebron, I could have immediately jumped in on that just because of what I've had to do.

[Andy Holloway]

But Eric ebron, by the way, 7x what Jack Doyle did last year, that's.

[Mike Wright]

Jack Doyle going to miss a lot of the. Lot of the season.

[Jason Moore]

I love this.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to buy it just because it's Gigantor. Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

And the baby hands.

[Mike Wright]

It's legitimately possible that all three of these tight ends have, you know, four touchdowns at the end of the season and maybe Doyle has two.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. All right. Well, you can read all of them on the website. The fantasy footballers.com all 32 bold predictions on the site today. See if you agree with any of them. See if you buy, sell any of them. But you can check out for your for your favorite team that was by herself from Pristine Auction. Go to Pristine Auction right now. Go register an account. Put in the code ballers. You get $5 towards any sports memorabilia purchase. They have hundreds of daily autographed auctions. So check that out. Buy or sell every week brought to you by Pristine Auction.

[Mike Wright]

Searching for Baker Mayfield.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, yes. We'll talk about him a little bit today. He'll. He'll be sprinkled in with some of these bust picks. But what? But not. Not in that. He's just part of a discussion is all I'm saying. You can find us on Twitter at the ffballers the Ultimate Draft Kit @ultimate draft kit.com this weekend is going to be the biggest draft day of the off season. It is every year, so the majority of you are drafting Saturday or later on. So you've got time to get into the ultimate draft kit. Get yourself prepared, get yourself ready, get a cheat sheet going. And you can check that out@ultimate draftkit.com let's go ahead and get into the news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Andy Holloway]

It finally happened, guys.

[Mike Wright]

They did it.

[Andy Holloway]

They got an extension done.

[Mike Wright]

Good for you, Dallas.

[Andy Holloway]

Dallas Cowboys dealing with you know what, Mari Cooper, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott. All players that need extensions. So they did it. They got a contract extension done for linebacker Jalen Smith.

[Mike Wright]

Yesterday was so funny as this.

[Andy Holloway]

If you're Jalen Smith, then I apologize. Congrats to you.

[Mike Wright]

One good move by Dallas. Like this was an excellent move for your defense. But the way this was teased to the media, it was very intentional of trying to build up hype for the Cowboys. You know, we all got the alert. The Cowboys have finally they have an extension for somebody. There's a press conference coming. Who's it going to be? And it'll be the. The bets were running wild. Which of the three offensive players is Mr. Cabo back for a new contract? But no, it was just a fish slap to the face for all of.

[Andy Holloway]

Us, which nobody likes.

[Mike Wright]

You ever been slapped by a fish? No, because we all were yesterday.

[Andy Holloway]

We all were yesterday.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Metaphorically. Speaking.

[Andy Holloway]

Because you guys are out of town?

[Mike Wright]

No, because of. Because they signed Jalen's.

[Andy Holloway]

I got disconnected because I was now picturing a fish actually slapping someone. Not somebody slapped. Because you said, have you ever been slapped by a fish? Which made me think that the fish had done the slapping.

[Jason Moore]

That would be fine.

[Andy Holloway]

I've never been slapped by a fish. I've never been slapped with a fish. It's one of the things I take great pride in. I've led my life in a way where that has not happened yet.

[Mike Wright]

You do not soon forget your first fish slap.

[Jason Moore]

Brooks, can you order some whole fish?

[Andy Holloway]

I have had somebody string a fish up to my car once and put it through the antenna. And then I didn't realize it was a gag from a friend. A full on fish. I'm talking like two foot fish through the jawbone of the fish. I didn't notice that I drove down the freeway with a fish smacking against my car for an afternoon. But that's a story from my past. Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, More news. Darius Guyce expected to play in the Thursday preseason game against the Falcons.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you expected to watch?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, it's my job.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I want to see how he looks. I want to see how many, how many snaps does he actually get? How fluid does he look?

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Derek Henry resumed practicing on Monday. Not a lot of Derek Henry talk as he's been on the shelf with the calf injury. It's a good thing.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Texans running back Duke Johnson returned to practice after the hamstring injury. Are you taking late round shots on Duke Johnson? I'm Duke Johnson or Tony Pollard late in drafts.

[Jason Moore]

I would rather have Pollard for the upside that you start the season with a stud running back. I expect Duke Johnson to be a little bit more involved on a regular basis through the season. If Zeke were back then Pollard obviously. But I don't expect huge things for Duke Johnson. I don't think he's going to take over that role. He's not made to be. He's, he's, he, he's great at the role. He plays a third down guy, but he's doing that for a team that passes to the running back, you know very little over the last five years, their last place. So I'm not super excited about Duke Johnson.

[Andy Holloway]

Ravens coach John Harbaugh came out, said Marquis Brown, rookie wide receiver, first rounder, has, quote, a ways to go. He had been recovering from an injury. I've heard a lot more about Miles Boykin around camp than Marquis Brown. I'm kind of interested in Miles Boykin late in drafts or off the waiver wire. Gonna have my eye glancing his direction if Lamar Jackson takes a step forward throwing the football. But Marquis Brown right now is going to be a deep threat. Taking the top off at times, but fantasy wise, not this year. Probably not this year. All right, Chargers have resigned. Dontrell.

[Mike Wright]

He's back.

[Andy Holloway]

Inman.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's back.

[Andy Holloway]

It's funny because on the show the other day, I brought up how different the offense might look without Keenan. If Keenan's hurt Gordon, Gordon's holding out. We forget Tyrell Williams is gone as well. Like they lost him in the off season. Charger fans were quick to remind me that they won games without Keenan and Gordon, but I would. I imagine you want them on your roster.

[Mike Wright]

And Inman had. He had a fine year back in 2016 when they were the San Diego Chargers. You know, 58 receptions, 810 yards.

[Andy Holloway]

I couldn't have been a better landing spot to get some work. But not really fantasy relevant. All right. More David Montgomery hype. We can get the hype train going again. I don't know if it can. I mean, has it ever stopped? But coach Matt Nagy came out, said he probably gave Tariq Cohen a little too much work last season. Said they moved him around a lot. Said that they maybe gave him too much. And when you mentally drain them, it pulls them back physically. This could be more about how much they asked Cohen to do in terms of, you're in the slot on this play, you're at a wide receiver position, you're playing running back on this down. But nevertheless, they believe in and love David Montgomery.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they do.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And I think David Montgomery is a solid pick. I mean, we've, we've talked this last week over and over about the success of rookie running backs. He's in a good system, he's going to be used, and he's talented back. So I like, there's pretty much when it comes to David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, I think they're all actually good values right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I go back and forth between Montgomery and Sanders in dynasty perspective. I think Montgomery is a safer pick right now for like, guaranteed workload from week one. I don't know what the season looks like. You know, I don't know what it looks like four, five, six weeks into the year. I think that there's a fantasy roster that would be better off with Montgomery and there's a fantasy roster that's probably better off with Miles Sanders. But right now Montgomery should have more work from week one, guaranteed to him, in my opinion, than Miles Sanders will. All right, that is it for news and notes. A reminder Sleeper does not just break the latest news. They're the best fantasy platform, as simple or complex as you need. Flexible. Download today and we're going to get into the bus. Before we do that, we want to thank one of the sponsors of today's show. I have completely renovated my entire closet. You know this, Mike. This was months ago. Getting a good pair of jeans, like your favorite pair of jeans, that's like, it's like winning a contested catch. That's a, it's a big play moment. And I redid all my jeans once. I wore some Mugsy jeans. That's just what happened. Mugsy jeans are more comfortable than all other jeans in the world and they don't feel like jeans. I think that's the big thing. They don't feel like wearing a stiff pair of jeans. They use proprietary fabrics, a blend of these high tech materials that make the jeans insanely soft. It does not feel like a regular pair of jeans. They're all that I wear. They come in this stylish fit that looks really good. It's not too baggy, it's not too tight. I don't know why we haven't unlocked this secret before.

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Dude, if you're not wearing stretchy jeans, man, they're great.

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

They are. I can't wait. But in the meantime, I can still have my White Castle the microwavable White Castle burgers made with 100% beef patties that are so delicious. You know, I was reading this read and just, you know, preparing like, okay, I've got to talk about White Castle and I can't read this without desperately craving White Castle. You know, they talk about that one of a kind taste, you know, that's served on the bed of steamed grilled onions and this. Oh, I just. I want them right now.

[Andy Holloway]

You're having a moment.

[Jason Moore]

I'm having a moment and struggling. They have other flavors too. They have a jalapeno cheese slider. They. They have just cheese sliders. So even if you're vegetarian, look, there is a White Castle for all people out there. From the castle or the grocery store, you could satisfy your crave anytime with White castle. Go to whitecastle.comfootballers to get a dollar off the purchase of any four or six pack White Castle sliders Bus.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you telling me your crave can be satisfied, Jason?

[Mike Wright]

I'll never be satisfied.

[Andy Holloway]

Have you ever? You would never be satisfied.

[Jason Moore]

That song was about me. I'll never be satisfied. But momentarily, yes, in the moment.

[Andy Holloway]

Until the next slider. All right. We are talking about our busts picks. There's obviously there's our kind of consensus busts in the ultimate draft kit. We just did the breakout show where we brought forth a couple names each. So we're doing the same thing here. Look, I guess I'm starting.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you're going to have to go ahead.

[Andy Holloway]

Damian Williams.

[Jason Moore]

Boo.

[Andy Holloway]

Damian Williams is one of my busts. It does not mean that you do not draft Damian Williams. But you need to know what you are getting. You need to know what you are drafting. You might want to adjust where you drafting him. And I know there are fantasy pundits in the world who have a million shares of Damian Williams. I'm not one of them.

[Mike Wright]

Guilty.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not one of them. And there's a lot of things that go into the. Into focus here. There was a small window in this off season where I believed that Damian Williams had the opportunity necessary to return that value. That window has closed for me. It wasn't open in the beginning. It's not open now. He's got 180 rushes in his career over five seasons. He's 27 years old, never had fresh legs. He's never had more than 13 carries in a game ever in his career.

[Mike Wright]

Did you read my note?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, okay, yes. He had 25 in the playoff game last year. I see the note there. I'm just saying regular season game for fantasy purposes. He's never had more than 13. I'm not saying that. I feel like the argument built for Damian Williams is built entirely on the back of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. And that's a pretty decent argument for who's starting. The problem is you're going to see some regression in the catches last year. He caught 95% of passes his way his entire career. He's a 70% catch guy. That's not going to happen again. The teams come out and said it's going to be a committee. My eyeballs watching the Kansas City Chiefs. I believe that Darwin Thompson is going to have a role carved out in this offense. I believe that they're going to use a committee. I believe that Damian Williams has proved he can barely stay healthy on a consistent basis. And I actually, I actually see some similarities to the way fantasy players might be looking at Damian Williams and the way that they look at Derek Henry. In as much as you have a pretty big career for both players, you have a pretty small amount of games at the end of last season that were amazing for both players. And then we're trying to project forward. Is the amazing part the reality or is the previous part of their career the reality? Again, he's not going to bust in as far as you draft him, your debt. My thought is I think he's being drafted too high. I think he's the player that represents the most risk at the running back position in his tier and that's bar none. I mean, the team's come out and said he's going to be a part of a committee and we have to trust that he's going to be the Damian Williams of the last five games as opposed to the Damian Williams preceding that. And that's where I'm at and I'm happy to talk about it.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just, I think he's being drafted too high. He's. I never want to take him at the tier that he's at. I have more confidence in players like Devonta Freeman.

[Jason Moore]

It's hard, it's hard to draft Damian Williams. Like I, I believe that when, you know, this is, this is when I talked about your picks being inverse of one another for running backs specifically, there is the huge debate of talent versus opportunity. You want both. Which one do you want more? Opportunity over talent. And this is. I've said for a long time, I don't think Damian Williams is a very talented. I mean, he's talented insofar as he's an NFL running back. Right. Like they're all talented but among his peers he is not special. He is not a talented player compared to the elites.

[Andy Holloway]

I think what makes opportunity it is. It's 100% the opportunity. And then I'LL give him credit. Like, I don't think he's the best pass catcher in the foot in football. I don't think he's the best running back in football. His versatility is what gives him playing time on this roster. And obviously they committed some money to him and things like that. I just don't have the confidence level that other fantasy owners have drafting Damian Williams and that's, you know, behind him. I have so much excitement over players like Chris Carson, which you can get way later in the draft. And I feel better about Chris Carson than I do Damian Williams, so I just can't see myself drafting him. So I think that he qualifies as a bus for me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, we, Mike and I were in LA yesterday shooting some stuff for the NFL League 1 coming to a screen near you. But. But we were talking about. We were talking about Damian Williams and you know where we stand right now. And I believe that Damian Williams will have a successful role, but that if he loses it for a moment, he might not get it back. There's just no investment in the team. And if Darwin Thompson were to take over, if Damian Williams gets a hamstring injury in week three, he's not one of the, he's not a Melvin Gordon type where when he comes back, he's just got the job. He's the, he's the guy. That's my worry. So when it comes to him being a bust pick, I am perfectly fine with that.

[Andy Holloway]

Alex Collins was this category last year, didn't play in the preseason. The guy, no matter what, compensated. So that happens to players every year. Mike, I respect the fact that you disagree. I respect the fact that you're a big Damian Williams believer. I respect the fact that you have him in your dynasty team.

[Mike Wright]

I do.

[Andy Holloway]

So I just don't like where he's going.

[Mike Wright]

And look, I get it. I see. I try to be realistic and see both sides of it. And just to speak to from my position, one, Andy Reid, I know he said, he said committee, but also over this offseason, there was just praise heaped upon Damian Williams saying he's the guy.

[Jason Moore]

He's.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to have all the opportunities. He's just now at this point, he just has to go out there and produce. Then he got hurt. And as is often to happen in the NFL, when a player gets hurt in training camp and can't practice, coaches do get frustrated. But all signs still point to Damian Williams being the starter he was in preseason Week two. He was out there for the entire first drive then was put on ice because he's still being worked back in as far as talent. I disagree with Jason. I think Damian Williams is actually a talented running back. He went undrafted for reasons that had nothing to do with him as a running back. They were off the field things and if you in talent and opportunity run through the rest of the roster, Damian Williams is by far a better running back especially in the system that Kansas City runs than Carlos Hyde. And you have Carlos Hyde was the original reason why people were jumping off of Damian Williams bandwagon over the off season. And now they're talking about Carlos. I might not even make this team. I like Darwin Thompson. I think he is a good player but he still is a six round draft pick and he's a 200 pound guy. Like he can't come in and be the beef that Damian Williams can in so that I think Williams is safer and he's. I think that's what he has dropped.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what we're talking about is safety and that it makes sense. He drops in ADP because at the beginning of this offseason Darwin Thompson wasn't on the roster. The refrain from Andy Reid was not committee based, it was Damian Williams. Now it's turned into a committee and he hadn't hurt his hamstring. So every little shot over the last couple months has reduced my confidence level in Damian Williams having a consistent workload. Things could go right for him and being on that offense is worth its weight in gold because even if he loses workload, he's still going to be productive. That's why this bust means to me. I would love to take Damian Williams, you know, after the David Montgomery, Chris Carson, Devonta Freeman territory.

[Mike Wright]

Sure there is absolutely risk with Damian Williams. But just to go to your comp of how you like Chris Carson more, I don't mind that. I really like Chris Carson for this year. But in, in my estimation of fantasy football realms of possibility, Damian Williams can finish as a top five running back. I don't think that Chris Carson can unless he sees this, sees a huge bump in his pass catching opportunity which can happen.

[Andy Holloway]

But, but would be necessary for that tier.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, who wants to go next with their bus pick?

[Jason Moore]

I'll. I'll go next with one that might be a head scratcher at first. Right. Because I'm throwing out Kareem Hunt as a gigantic bust. Now you might say well how can he bust? He's in the eighth round zero points.

[Andy Holloway]

Week one, zero points. Week two, zero points.

[Jason Moore]

Week three. Keep going.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you're guaranteeing.

[Jason Moore]

Here's why I wanted to bring him up, though. We were doing a live draft, a real draft, and Kareem Hunt was drafted in the eighth round. And I was like, what? And then I went and I looked at ADP and Kareem Hunt is going in the eighth round. And then we did a draft yesterday and Cream Hunt went in the eighth round. And all I want is, I want the Foot Clan to know that you're not going to be part of that. The Foot Clan will not be partakers in drafting Kareem Hunt and clogging your bench, you will not partake. And ruining it makes formal ban.

[Andy Holloway]

Formal ban from Jason.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, the game strategy of drafting Kareem Hunt is nonsensical. He's missing the first eight weeks plus a bye week. Okay? So the first week you can possibly play this player is week 10. Now, you're not going to play him that week because you don't know what the role is barring. Okay. Nick Chubb got injured in week four, and now, you know you're just waiting. Barring that situation, you're talking about week 11 now. And the only way you play him in week 11 is if in week 10 he comes out and was super awesome. But the reality is he's a backup.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

When he comes back, he's a backup running back. What are you doing? Here's some guys that will help your team that are being drafted behind Kareem Hunt. Sammy Watkins. Okay, Say whatever you want about the Lizard King, but he's.

[Mike Wright]

He's.

[Andy Holloway]

He's the king now. He ain't the man. He took over the top seat.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You want either shot on the Green Bay wide receiver to Geronimo Allison or MBS there. Dee Dee Westbrook with all of our. My guy quarterbacks. You know, Cam Goff, Russell Wilson. Like, these are valuable players.

[Mike Wright]

Not Russell.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, come on.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't get that going.

[Jason Moore]

I guess we'll start about. We'll.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike. I don't know. Oh, he is yours.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I was about to say. I don't know how you don't.

[Jason Moore]

Matt Burrito, Adrian Peterson. There's. I just want. It's a psa. Really?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

That Kareem Hunt is not going to help your team this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Big name. Big name moves up the adp.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. Don't draft him. Foot Clan. Let other people clog your bench and not be able to make waiver wire moves because they're holding on to a backup running back that they get to play in Week 11, they hope.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's one. That's a consensus bus for us as well in the ultimate draft. Kit. Totally agree. But, you know, mercifully, I was in a mock draft yesterday, 12th round.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, not that. Not that you want to take him, but at least he went in the 12.

[Jason Moore]

I'm glad you bring that up, though, because this is one of those things where it's like, okay, if he's available at my last round, I would never take a roster clog for that long. Don't. When he drops in value, don't think, ooh, shiny.

[Andy Holloway]

If you already have him, what do they do? Go trade him to the Nick Chub owner? Sure, if you clog his bench.

[Jason Moore]

Right. He's a landmine.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Mike, you get to bring forth your great bus.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. So I will qualify it. I was making a joke. I would draft Russell Wilson before I draft Kareem Hunt, just so you know. But the bus. Oh, he loves him, but the bus I'm going with. It's unfortunately because I love the quarterback, but it is Russell Wilson. His ADP actually has gone down a full round over the last month. And when I. When I think that Russell Wilson is going to bust, this is him busting compared to his adp. I'm just talking about the range of outcomes. Russell Wilson last year threw a touchdown on 8.2% of his passes. That is an outrageous number. Before that, his career. His career touchdown percentage was 5.7 before last season. Last year, that would have given him 26 touchdowns, putting him in the. In the range of. Maybe you want to stream Russell Wilson sometimes and he finishes as the quarterback. 16. Since the year 2000, there had been eight times a quarterback has thrown the ball over 150 times and had that touchdown rate, that unsustainable eight over 8% touchdown rate. The average drop for those quarterbacks the following season has been 3%. Dropping down. Like, that's a huge deal. So, like, for Russell's inst, talking about Russell from 8.2 down to 5.2, that's A. That's a really, really big difference for fantasy outcome. And players in that list. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers. You're talking first ballot hall of Fame quarterbacks having these huge outlier years and then seeing the natural regression that just happens after a big season. He's not going to repeat being a perfect passer to Tyler Lockett, who is a deep threat. Lockett's catch percentage went from 66% to 81. Like, this was a Magic year for Tyler Lockett. I'm not taking that away from him. But Lockett went from seasons of two touchdowns, one touchdown, jumped all the way up to 10 because the magic dust just happened to land upon Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett last year. Russell Wilson is fine if, if people are letting him slide in the draft. I'm okay taking the shot on him, but I just see massive, massive regression coming to his passing touchdown volume. Sure, he'll probably throw the ball a little bit more, but that's not the game plan for Seattle.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you rather. I know I. And we've heard it. We don't to beat it into the ground because we talked to Russell a little bit. You guys have discussed him, right? Obviously, Jason, you can, you could get back at him here with your thoughts, but would you take Russell Wilson or Kyla Murray? Because I think that's an interesting situation that went back to back in the 12th round of a mock I was in yesterday. Russell Wilson's history and pedigree. Like I talked about this on the show. I felt like your thoughts on Russell Wilson are painting too. Too negative a light. Kind of like I thought Jason was painting for Matt Ryan. Like you were both grading them at their basement.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

As opposed to like the middle ground of like, maybe he's not that good. Maybe he's not what he was last year, but maybe he's not 16 since he's never finished there. But who would you, who would you rather have in that situation?

[Mike Wright]

I think I'm going to take Kyler. Look, things didn't look great in that game, but I'm going to take Kyler. Based off of what? The offense, what the coaching staff. They're saying they want that offense to be. They want it to run through Kyler and Seattle doesn't want their offense to run through Russell Wilson. They want it to run through Carson and Rashad Penny.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The only thing I would say is when Peyton Manning lost on his, you know, great numbers that fell down after his electric passing touchdown run.

[Mike Wright]

What he couldn't do a great year.

[Jason Moore]

What he. Yeah, he had a great year, but he, he couldn't just. Oh, he adds 150 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Because like on average, Russell Wilson has three rushing touchdowns per season and last year, zero. So okay, let's say you take away four passing touchdowns, give him three rushing touchdowns and fantasy scoring that's identical. So I think Russell will make it up. We've got a water bet on record through the Wheel of Water app.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

So I think he's going to be a top 12 quarterback. You don't. All right, Both sides.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Now I get to do this. I get to do this one. I'm sorry. My second bus pick again. It's an ADP adjustment. It's a belief adjustment. It's. It's a Maybe a stifling of the ADP rise. It's carry on Johnson. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.

[Mike Wright]

You should be.

[Andy Holloway]

I know what that means to our relationship. I know what that means to your propensity to share your White Castle with me, which goes to no sliders for you. But I want.

[Jason Moore]

This is actually great news.

[Andy Holloway]

My. My problem with Kerryon Johnson is pretty similar to the one that I brought up before. But I want to talk about a few other things. I think he's going too high. I think this comes down to a lens problem for fantasy owners. They know how talented Kerryon Johnson is when he's on the field and he's healthy and you get to watch him. And I look at the comp of a 2017 Joe Mixon a little bit with Kerryon Johnson this year where nobody doubts that Joe Mixon is one of the best pure talents in football. I don't doubt that Kerryon Johnson is one of the best pure talents in football. There's a reason he dropped in the NFL draft and that reason has to do with durability concerns. If you go back to the scouting reports that you look at when Kerryon was drafted, his frame might not hold up. He runs too upright. He might not hold up to the, to the long haul. These are the same scouting reports that the Lions had when they drafted Kerryon Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

He didn't drop.

[Mike Wright]

Drop to the second round where they.

[Jason Moore]

Traded up to get.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, you. Yes, he did drop from. Okay, he didn't drop. He didn't get drafted in the first round not because of talent but because of durability. His talent in college was worthy of being a high first round type of draft pick. His durability knocked him down and it knocked him down in scout's eyes in high school. College. Left right shoulder, sprained mcl, broken thumb while in college, ribs, hamstring, ankle, shoulder.

[Jason Moore]

First season knees and toes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, first season last year where he gets an opportunity doesn't hold up. The team isn't blind. The lens that they have is one where we need to use Kerryon Johnson in an appropriate fashion to avoid durability concerns. We've seen preseason so far. There is a worst case scenario for Kerryon Johnson that's What I believe the worst case scenario is if you take what happened in preseason game one and apply it, which obviously Kerryon is going to be on the field and he's going to be a very good player on a very bad team in my opinion. But if he doesn't get the third down work that gives him the pronounced target share that we want and he doesn't get goal line because they believe in CJ Anderson on the goal line, you've got a player that is going to underwhelm compared to ADP scouting report, never avoiding, you know, the hits. Remember Darren McFadden's durability concerns. He runs a lot like Darren McFadden, very upright running style. So if it's all risk aversion, when you talk about high draft picks, and for me the risk is too high. The lens that this team is looking at him through the other players that they picked up on the roster, the fact that I don't believe they're going to have as many goal line chances as other teams in football, I'm just concerned.

[Jason Moore]

Would you believe that I actually like your bust pick from a. From a conversation piece?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I wouldn't believe that.

[Jason Moore]

Well, then you're wrong. I think it is somewhat important because we talk about carry on. I love carry on. When I said earlier that you have two opposite picks, you have a player that I don't believe is talented in Damian Williams who has the best opportunity in the league versus a player in Kerryon Johnson who I think is so talented, so unbelievably talented in a bad situation. So I usually take opportunity over talent. This year I'm going with my guy Kerryon. Honestly, part of the reason I'm going with Kerryon is Juju Smith Schuster. He was one of those guys that I just thought the talent was unbelievable. Yes. And I didn't take him as my. My guy because the opportunity seemed a little bit nebulous. And you weren't sure. I am. I'm buying into the talent and I think the talent will win. But your conversation here is important because if he doesn't get the passing work and he doesn't get the goal line, there are risks to carry on. Even the carry on Johnson truther knows it. Now here's the question I have. Carry on.

[Andy Holloway]

What if he gets both of those?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, if he gets both of those going to White Castle. If he gets none, I'm also. But the, the question is Damian Williams and Kerryon Johnson, they are going back to back right now. So you're on the clock you have to draft one of those two guys. Which one are you?

[Andy Holloway]

Kerry on Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

Just good?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Thank you for putting it to me that way. I have to take one of my two butts. Which one do I take? It's Carry On Johnson. So.

[Jason Moore]

So here. My bust to go.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. Great, great.

[Jason Moore]

I'm giving it back. Look, Carry On Johnson. He's my guy. Christian Kirk, He's a. Your guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

I believe Christian Kirk is a bust for where he's being drafted right now. He has been skyrocketing until this last weekend. He was up in the sixth round.

[Andy Holloway]

You're welcome.

[Jason Moore]

And on his way up. Sorry. Yeah, but I don't see the. Look, I love the talent of Christian Kirk. I love the future of the Cardinals in this offense. But we have to be realistic as to the difference between Kyler Murray being successful for fantasy because he is a heavy rushing quarterback versus a rookie. Even a great rookie quarterback coming in, what it does for the other offensive pieces around him. Because the truth is, Kyler Murray is probably not going to put up enough stats in the passing game to support one breakout wide receiver. So here's. Here's the examples, here's the data that I look at. Okay? Rookie quarterbacks, they don't throw a lot of yards. There's only three.

[Andy Holloway]

You can't even throw a yard. Technically. You can't pick it up and throw.

[Jason Moore]

It for a lot of yards.

[Mike Wright]

It's just an idea, Jason. You can't throw ideas.

[Andy Holloway]

You can throw measurements.

[Mike Wright]

You could. I guess you could throw a yardstick.

[Jason Moore]

I am. Yes, clearly still correct then.

[Andy Holloway]

Rookies do not throw yards.

[Jason Moore]

They can't throw yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you. There's only, you know, three quarterbacks in history that have thrown for 4,000 yards. Peyton. The great Peyton. Manny, you're talking about rookie rookies. Yeah. The great Peyton Manning comes out, throws for 3,700 yards. The Vegas look at Vegas. What do they believe Kyler Murray is going to do now? I'm taking the over. I'm slamming the over, okay? But the Caesar Sportsbook that's not trying to lose money had him listed at 2,940 passing. I put my house on that when it came out. FanDuel was at 3100 passing.

[Mike Wright]

You can, but you might not have a house.

[Jason Moore]

So the reality here is that I.

[Andy Holloway]

Don'T believe the yardage will sustain a breakout. You might believe in the player, but you don't believe the opportunity and the passing yardage can mathematically add up.

[Jason Moore]

That plus the passing touchdowns I mean, Baker tied the all time record for 27, 27 last year. So if he throws for 3,500 yards, which would be great, and 25 touchdowns, which would be great for a rookie, those numbers are not good enough to have Larry Fitzgerald, a four wide receiver spread thing and have Christian Kirk break out.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think we have to argue about this. I don't. Because I think it just comes down to what you believe Kyler Murray is going to do on the field with his, with his arm. I don't, I don't look too heavily at the history of rookie quarterbacks. When you talk about what this offense is going to do and you know Cam Newton's rookie season, he threw for over 4,000 yards. He's one of the three, 2011 last season. You don't get a count Baker, but he was on pace for 4,200 yards in his rookie season. Kyler was a more prolific passer and a more efficient passer at Oklahoma than Baker Mayfield was. So if you believe. Here's what I'll put this out there. He's my guy. Christian Kirk's my guy. If you don't believe Kyler Murray can throw for 4,000 yards this year, let Christian Kirk pass you by. Let him go. If you don't believe that, that's in the realm of possibilities. I do. I believe that this team, the defense is atrocious. I don't. Especially the first six weeks of the season. We haven't seen the offense. Kyler Murray is a hyper, accurate, prolific passer. I believe he's a better passer coming in to the NFL than Cam Newton was. But that team had to throw the football. Steve Smith and company. I remember that debut.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, Steve.

[Andy Holloway]

But it is a fourth.

[Mike Wright]

I was there.

[Jason Moore]

That was, that was awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

And again, Kyler can run. Kyler's a passer first. Kyler is a pat. It's not Lamar Jackson, where you have 18 design runs a game like Lamar Jackson does, you're going to have high pass attempt totals in Arizona because they're going to be coming from behind. He's not just he will run the football, but he wants to pass the football first. So if you don't believe he can, if you think he's a 3,000 yard passer, you better stay as far from Christian Kirk as you can.

[Jason Moore]

I have him down for 3,812 yards, so he's near that 4,000. It's a great year and 24 passing touchdowns. But when you split that with all the options, including Larry Fitzgerald hall of Famer who is obviously going to get his. I mean, that puts Christian Kirk. For me, he's wide receiver 46 right now.

[Andy Holloway]

He's the seventh or I'm sorry, he's a seventh round pick. And he's basically identical to Alan Robinson and Curtis Samuel.

[Jason Moore]

I would take both of those guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you have anything to weigh in, Mike, or you just.

[Mike Wright]

I lean on the side that I know.

[Andy Holloway]

You can't make the math add up in your head.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's been my problem. When I go into the stats, give.

[Andy Holloway]

Kyler 10,000 yards, then what happens?

[Mike Wright]

Let's find out.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Mike Wright]

Kyler Murray is now my QB one. Imagine that.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. You want to temper my Christian Kirk after I temper your carry on.

[Jason Moore]

You get all the information here on this show. You get both sides of every player and then you can actually say, I like this argument. I like this data better and make wise decisions.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. That means there's one bus remaining.

[Mike Wright]

There is.

[Andy Holloway]

Plus Mike's pick.

[Mike Wright]

Hey.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Mike Wright]

For me, it's James White. I hand I hear a lot of people talking. They love James White. They love scooping him up in the middle of the draft. They think he's an excellent value there. But here's my problem with James White and what happened last year. He said entered his fifth year or you know, he entered his fifth year last year and he had 113 regular season carries. He jumped up. That's how many carries he had total. He hit 94 carries just last year. He had coming into that season two regular season rushing touchdowns. That jumped up to five. He had five in the season last year. He had never seen more than 86 targets in a season, had 123 last year. This nugget from good friend of the show Scott Barrett. Last year James White had a 21.4 target share of New England's passing attempts up into that point. Up into James White. Last year the highs for a running back were James White at 15.6%. Before that, Kevin Falk at 13.8. Before that, Shane Vereen at 12 point, 12.6.

[Jason Moore]

For the Patriots for their.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, for the target share from Tom Brady. I mean, that's an outrageous jump. James White who had had 15.6 jumping up to 21.4. It just, it doesn't add up. To me. His career fantasy finishes running back 41, 28, 41 8. Everything went right. Everything went right. That's a hard one to say. Everything went right for White. That's my new slogan. Try it out. Look, last year with Burkhead, in eight games, he was scoring 13 PPR points. Without Burkhead, that jumped up to 21 points a game. Last year, Gaines was Sony, 13 of them. He had 16 PPR points, which is still good, but that skyrockets to 23 points when Sony Michelle's out. He took advantage of his opportunity with Birkin missing time. With Sony missing time, those two guys are still there. And now we are adding Damien Harris into the mix as well.

[Jason Moore]

Who can catch the ball?

[Mike Wright]

Who can catch the ball? I just don't see a world where James White sees anywhere near the same workload that he received last year.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not drafting James White anywhere because Miles Sanders is always sitting there or Lamar Miller or better choices. I don't disagree with your arguments at all. To me, James White is in case of emergency, break the glass. And inside is James White in all circumstances. Like an amped up Javorius Allen who kept finding himself in situations in Baltimore where, well, it's another Javorius Allen week because we don't have anybody else to throw to.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

So I think if things go according to plan for the Patriots, what you're saying about White comes true. I think if things go away from what the Patriots want to happen, James White will find himself as the favorite wingman of Tom Brady. So he's a more situational play where, oh, man, this guy's hurt this week. This guy's out. Gordon suspended.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Weeks.

[Mike Wright]

Burkhead can't stay healthy. Sony Michelle has had his own injury problems. So there is a world where James White is. Is the cheese and he's just standing alone in that backfield. Just him and Damien Harris as the only healthy guys and then he will return. But I'm not going to draft a guy in the fifth round banking on, okay, these two other guys have to miss time in order for my pick to return. Value.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. If you look at the season totals for James White, it's very easy to make a positive narrative. But when you do look at a game by game basis and what actually happened week seven, when Sony goes down and only gets four carries, then James White takes over for the next three games. And in that three game stretch when he had the opportunity just granted to him, he had 30 carries in three games and 30 targets in those three games.

[Andy Holloway]

So it was insane. And he meant a lot to fantasy owners. And the reward for meaning a lot to fantasy owners is an average draft position. Where he is right now, it's kind of like, thank you, we appreciate you. I'm going to draft you and then you might. I mean, you're going to feel really uncomfortable putting him into your lineup in week one.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I agree with that.

[Andy Holloway]

But you're going to have to.

[Jason Moore]

If you're in a full PPR league, he's still going to be a guy that you can rely on for a number of catches each game, similar to how year after year after year you could play Theo Riddick. He's not great in real life. He's not great, you know, for fantasy, but he's serviceable. He plays a role. And, you know, if he drops in a draft in a full ppr, I would, I would still look at him. But he's not, you know, he was a top 12 guy and that's not who he is.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, well, those were our bus picks. We've still got a couple other shows. Brooks, how are you doing? Excellent. What other shows do we have coming up here? What are you going to tease? Give me the tease this week. Sleepers and values shows coming up. All right, Sleepers and values coming up, so don't miss that. And I wanted to speak. We posted an announcement on Twitter. The fantasy footballers are coming to SiriusXM radio. I wanted to make sure that this was very clear. What exactly is happening with the fantasy footballers and Sirius xm. Nothing is changing about this podcast. Nothing is changing about the Foot Clan. Nothing is changing anywhere on what we do. The only thing that's changing is there's going to be an extra episode, a radio show live from 5 to 7 Eastern each and every Thursday live.

[Mike Wright]

Jason, you hear that, Jay?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So Brooks has got the. He's got a really oversized mute Jason button over there in case of emergency.

[Jason Moore]

I've cut the cord on it already.

[Andy Holloway]

And we just have a bunch of quotes from you that we can substitute in, in case you're saying something else. Carry on anyway, but nothing's changing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we're just adding.

[Andy Holloway]

If you have CIA, we're just adding a little extra. It's an exciting time. We get to do a show leading up to Thursday Night Football throughout the season. We get to take calls live on the show. We get to meander and talk about everything and anything. It's a two hour live show, so you can check that out on SiriusXM fantasy sports radio. They're also syndicating this podcast in the evening. So that's what's happening. If you're a fantasy footballers listener, subscriber, proceed with exactly what you've been doing. And if You've got Sirius. You can tune in from five to seven Eastern each and every Thursday on through the season. We're very excited to be on there, to be part of the Sirius XM family. And then we want to thank Pristine again. As we close out today's show, the studio sponsor yesterday, a super Camario, an Alvin Camaro Jersey sold for $85. Autographed [e-mail] make sure you go sign up. It's free to sign up. Use the code Ballers. It'll give you a $5 credit and you can bid on stuff throughout the year. If you find an auction that you like and check them out at Pristine.

[Mike Wright]

Auction, don't bid on my Baker Mayfield jersey today.

[Andy Holloway]

Whatever you do, don't bid on or do. I almost took him in the 12th round last night. He was falling.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

Falling. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on TwitterFFballers.

[Andy Holloway]

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