Early 2018 Busts, Backfields to Avoid, Hate Blockers

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Early 2018 Busts, Backfields to Avoid, Hate Blockers"

Release Date: June 14, 2018

Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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The June 14, 2018 episode of Fantasy Footballers delves deep into the realm of potential early draft busts, problematic backfields to steer clear of, and introduces the humorous concept of "Hate Blockers." The trio offers astute analysis, engaging banter, and actionable advice to help fantasy managers navigate the complexities of their drafts.

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1. Defining a "Bust" in Fantasy Football

Andy Holloway opens the discussion by clarifying what constitutes a bust in fantasy football. Contrary to common misconceptions, a bust isn't necessarily a player who falls dramatically in performance but rather one who significantly underperforms relative to their draft position.

Andy Holloway [20:21]: "Because loaded. It's easy to interpret that to mean something as extreme as you believe that this player that was great is going to fall off the face of the earth and become irrelevant. And that is not what we're saying when we talk about bus either here on the early Bus show..."

2. Early 2018 Bust Candidates

The hosts identify several players they believe might not live up to their draft expectations:

• Deshaun Watson (QB)
  Mike Wright presents an intriguing case against drafting Deshaun Watson in the fourth round. While Watson showcases potential, Wright argues that if Watson finishes as the fourth-best quarterback, drafting him at his current position would result in a significant bust.

  Mike Wright [21:22]: "This is the first time that anything like this has ever happened in my memory. But my bust candidate is also ranked as my fourth highest quarterback... If he finishes as quarterback four and you take him where he is currently being Drafted, you have made a gigantic bust decision."
  Andy Holloway [25:08]: "Based on the progression of Andrew Luck, which despite the interpretation of the press conference was a step forward for him, he was throwing the ball in public to other players. Are you adjusting anything based on where we're at?"

• Corey Davis (WR)
  Jason Moore names Corey Davis as his primary bust candidate, positioning him at Wide Receiver 27. Despite Davis's talent, Moore emphasizes concerns over his target volume and offensive situation, which may limit his fantasy production.

  Jason Moore [26:22]: "The player I fear will not return value on his draft position is Jarvis Landry..."
  Andy Holloway [30:00]: "27Th wide receiver off the board with perceivably top 15, 16 upside to me. Would you disagree? That's the upside."

• Jarvis Landry (WR)
  Jason Moore also points to Jarvis Landry as a potential bust, critiquing the Miami Dolphins' offensive strategies and the limited target share Landry might receive under head coach Hugh Jackson.

  Jason Moore [45:35]: "Now, as an OC, he's had some really high level wide receivers, but he's not. He is the head coach. And here's what I'm talking about with the pie..."
  Andy Holloway [51:07]: "Yeah, yeah. No, I make sense. Jarvis Lander. You hear the quote he said this morning?"

• LaShawn McCoy (RB)
  Mike Wright and Jason Moore debate LaShawn McCoy's potential to become a bust. Wright cites concerns about McCoy's age and volume, given his heavy usage in past seasons.

  Mike Wright [35:01]: "I will draft LaShawn McCoy and I will get a couple games and I will trade him that. I don't think he's going to hold up this year behind that offensive line. That's my worry."
  Jason Moore [43:32]: "To call him a bust at the back of the second for a running back that should touched the ball easily over 300 times. He is their best receiving option."

3. Backfields to Avoid

The discussion shifts to identifying entire backfields that fantasy managers should avoid, primarily due to inefficient offensive strategies or questionable player performances.

• Miami Dolphins' Backfield
  Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about Miami's rushing offense, highlighting their last-place finish in rushing attempts per game last season. With a backfield comprising Frank Gore, Kenyon Drake, Calum Balaj, and the rookie Marlon McFall, Holloway questions the overall effectiveness and volume these players will receive.

  Andy Holloway [09:50]: "The backfield I'm avoiding, it actually ties into one of my busts. So put the pieces together if you want to, but it's Miami's backfield..."
  Mike Wright [10:10]: "Yes, he will have some games where the value is there. You can get some starts, some flex opportunities."

• Derek Henry (RB, Tennessee Titans)
  Andy Holloway and Mike Wright discuss Derek Henry's potential decline, citing his low yards per carry and struggles in third-down situations. Holloway points out that despite Henry's talent, the offensive line's inefficiency and evolving backfield dynamics could hamper his fantasy output.

  Andy Holloway [32:15]: "The Titans... could not run the ball last year. Okay. In the first half of games, spanning 500 carries for that offense, Henry averaged 3.1 a carry..."
  Mike Wright [34:30]: "I love the pick. I would absolutely qualify him as a bus candidate..."

• Buffalo Bills' Backfield
  The trio scrutinizes the Bills' offensive line issues, with Andy noting significant retirements and lack of replacements, leading to concerns over the line's performance and its impact on the backfield's effectiveness.

  Andy Holloway [38:54]: "They did not replace their left tackle... Left side of the line."
  Mike Wright [39:00]: "They are going to stack the box like they've never done before in Buffalo."

4. Introducing Hate Blockers

The hosts humorously introduce "Hate Blockers" — sunglasses worn by Jason Moore — purportedly to shield him from negative comments about his bust picks. This lighthearted segment adds a playful dynamic to the serious discussions.

Mike Wright [02:34]: "I got my hate blockers on because I know already that my two bust candidates, people are gonna be like, yard, I hate you."
Jason Moore [09:28]: "I do hate you."

5. News and Notes

Brief segments address the latest happenings in the NFL, including player signings and team strategies. For instance, the signing of Terrence West by the Saints and its implications on their backfield is analyzed.

Jason Moore [11:52]: "He'll get the first opportunity."
Andy Holloway [13:18]: "I think they're going to use Mark Ingram situation..."
Mike Wright [16:56]: "We want to thank Pristine Auction for sponsoring today's podcast."

6. Listener Questions (Mailbag)

The episode features listener-submitted questions, which the hosts address with their characteristic blend of expertise and humor.

• Dynasty Draft Strategies
  Alexa from Tampa inquires about integrating rookies into a dynasty startup draft or maintaining separate rookie drafts. Jason Moore recommends separating the drafts, especially for newcomers, to better value rookies without skewing the main draft.

  Jason Moore [54:13]: "I think for people who are new to Dynasty, it's more, it would be better for them to separate the drafts..."

• Third Round Reversal Drafts
  Cole from Florida asks about the effectiveness of third-round reversal drafts. The hosts generally view this format favorably, appreciating its attempt to balance drafting advantages.

  Jason Moore [55:38]: "I don't mind it."
  Mike Wright [55:47]: "Yeah, I'm fine with it..."

• Trading Ezekiel Elliott for Jordan Howard and Dalvin Cook
  Joshua from Oklahoma poses a trade scenario involving Ezekiel Elliott. Mike Wright leans towards acquiring Jordan Howard and Dalvin Cook, believing both can finish as RB1s, while Andy Holloway prefers keeping Elliott due to his consistent performance.

  Mike Wright [56:14]: "I think I would rather have Jordan Howard and Dalvin Cook."
  Andy Holloway [56:55]: "I probably would keep Zeke."

• Managing Kickers in Fantasy Leagues
  Doug from Massachusetts questions the value of keeping kickers in his lineup, citing arbitrary scoring impacts. The hosts debate the role of kickers, with Mike Wright advocating for eliminating kickers and using flex spots instead, while Andy Holloway prefers nerfing their influence rather than removing them entirely.

  Mike Wright [57:24]: "So to me, I say add another flex spot, get rid of the kicker and have leagues that are even more active..."
  Andy Holloway [58:25]: "My official opinion on kickers is I like them."

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Conclusion

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast provides fantasy managers with critical insights into potential draft busts and offers strategic guidance on navigating backfields that may underperform. Through engaging discussions and relatable humor, the hosts equip listeners with the knowledge to make informed decisions, all while maintaining the entertaining and high-quality standard that Fantasy Footballers is known for.

For more insights and detailed analysis, tune into future episodes or join the community at FantasyFootballers.com.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot Clan. Got a great show coming up. Gonna be talking busts, but first I want to remind you, you can get the ultimate draft kit. @ultimate draftkit.com we are always adding to the Ultimate Draft Kit and we have added dynasty rankings, a bunch of new reports including market share, red zone, target share reports. We've expanded the cheat sheets for 2018, and then you've got all that goodness you've come to know and love from the Ultimate Draft Kit. Guaranteed to get you ready for your 2018 fantasy draft. Check it out at UltimateDraftKit.com welcome to.

[Mike Wright]

The Fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Ah, welcome, welcome, one and all the Fantasy footballers back once again. I am Andy Holloway, joined per usual, by Mike the Fantasy Hitman Wright and Jason.

[Jason Moore]

This is a special edition of Jason Moore.

[Andy Holloway]

He's so cool. Too cool for school.

[Mike Wright]

I don't even know if I'm gonna be here, fellas, doing this show. I'm too cool for you guys.

[Jason Moore]

Pulling a full Corey Hart.

[Andy Holloway]

If you right now. If you saw.

[Jason Moore]

Don't mess around with the man in shades.

[Andy Holloway]

He's wearing his sunglasses indoors. And that is because yesterday you went to the eye doctor.

[Mike Wright]

Sure did.

[Andy Holloway]

For a little consultation. Just take a little peek, see at the eyes.

[Mike Wright]

They do this thing where they dilate your eyes and it says it's four to 24 hours on old Google. They dilated my eyes so much that I think I'm ready to go into labor. Good dilation joke.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

It was a special one. Yeah. So Jason is me sporting the shades today, which is cool. You know, some cool takes.

[Mike Wright]

I got my hate blockers on because I know already that my two. My two bust candidates, people are gonna be like, yard, I hate you. I'm gonna say, can't see you.

[Andy Holloway]

I do.

[Jason Moore]

I do hate you.

[Andy Holloway]

For your bust. We had sleepers and now we've got some busts next week. We've got values and as well as a live show, by the way, the Minneapolis live Show next week, ballerslive.com if you want one of the last couple tickets left. And well, we got.

[Jason Moore]

We do have to tell the people because not everyone lives in Minneapolis.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that for real?

[Jason Moore]

Well, we don't. So I assume there's other people that do not live up there as well in the tunnels. We will be live streaming this show for free on our YouTube. So search for us there. YouTube.com you know where YouTube is?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Subscribe to the Fantasy Footballers Channel. Make sure you get the notifications. And Thursday night, you'll get a ping. It's going to be lit, fam.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Yeah. They're gonna be footland, fam.

[Andy Holloway]

We're doing it upright, though. It's gonna be a nice live stream. There's gonna be a bunch of cameras. You'll see the crowd, you'll see us. You'll see a great show. It's going to be fun, and then you'll know what's in store. If you want to come to any of the other live shows in New York, Philly, Dallas, Phoenix, which again, you can find [e-mail] Quick question of the day, my friends. Here's the question. Are there any team backfields that you are completely avoiding in fantasy football? So we're talking about messy situations, maybe bad offenses, maybe weird draft prices. Are there any backfields that you are. Hands off.

[Jason Moore]

Jesus. That's got his notepad.

[Andy Holloway]

You're covering your eyes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, big detective.

[Andy Holloway]

I do.

[Mike Wright]

I do have a notepad here because I was, you know, I was looking and I'm trying to come up with the team I'm going to avoid.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, gumshoes.

[Mike Wright]

And it dawns on me as I start writing down all the possibilities, I'm like, you know, I feel like I'm answering this question just to answer. And the truth is, the truth is, I don't think there's a backfield I avoid completely. Because if the value is good enough, then, you know, then. Then I would be willing to take them. I had some candidates that all had the same. The same thing, right? Where there's just too many guys, you don't know who it is. And usually I do avoid those. Indianapolis, Cleveland, Philadelphia, where I don't necessarily like the first guy, and then it's murky after that. But I'm willing to draft Corey Clement. Late. Absolutely. Naim Heinz, if Marlon McFall's. But then I got to a team where I went, oh, nope, there is an answer, because I'm. I'm not doing Raiders. Sorry, Marshawn. Lynch troopers.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yes.

[Mike Wright]

Sorry, Doug Martin. I actually do buy in a little Marshawn. For me, I buy into the Doug Martin area. The Doug Martin hype that he's going to be involved. And I don't think he's good. I think he's done. And so if I knew Marshawn was going to be the guy, I would take him because I. To me, he didn't look done. I think Marshawn's going to split 50, 50 and they're both going to suck. So you can have your Raiders backfield, and I'll take my Jared Cook.

[Andy Holloway]

Marshawn will just be like a different runner from last year. He'll be a bad one this time.

[Mike Wright]

No, I think that he will not get the work that we started to see him get the second half of last year.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Mike did bring up an interesting quote the other day from John Gruden talking about making him the workout.

[Jason Moore]

But to be fair, the quote came before they had grabbed Doug Martin for. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And I also think I accidentally called him a workhouse, which is different than a workhorse.

[Jason Moore]

It's. It's fine.

[Andy Holloway]

But shelter.

[Jason Moore]

So the backfield.

[Mike Wright]

Shelter from the storm.

[Jason Moore]

I am concerned with number one. I am mostly concerned with how I cannot take Jason more serious right now.

[Andy Holloway]

It's ridiculous.

[Jason Moore]

With the sunglasses situation.

[Mike Wright]

Nor should you. Can I interject here just for one quick, quick second on your team, I have to warn you and the audience. I just realized. I literally was looking down. I realized because I'm wearing these shades, these hate blockers. I think that I feel that I can say absolutely anything I want. So watch out on today's show.

[Andy Holloway]

You think that you feel that you can say anything is what you just said with your mouth.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Did they give you anything other than this dilation medicine? Did you have a Xanax by chance or some goodness?

[Mike Wright]

Can I confirm nor deny?

[Jason Moore]

All right, so I. The backfield that I am having trouble with and I'm a little bit nervous about, that's Tampa Bay.

[Andy Holloway]

I.

[Jason Moore]

During the scouting process, Ronald Jones was not my favorite running back, favorite rookie. He seemingly has entered a very good situation. Tampa Bay, they seem like they desired a high level running back. They spent draft capital, second round pick on him. But there's already talk of. Okay, well, early on there, he's going to share time with Peyton Barber, which last year Peyton Barber was okay. He wasn't anything special, but he was okay by the NFL standards. They've already declared Charles Sims will be the third down guy. So it. It certainly could. Certainly could be just coach speak.

[Mike Wright]

Ronald Jones is a bust.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, stop. Stop it.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. That's the glasses talking.

[Jason Moore]

I love this Jason Moore so much.

[Mike Wright]

I don't like his film. I don't like. You know, the situation seemed perfect.

[Andy Holloway]

Stop it.

[Mike Wright]

Ronald Jones is gonna be a bust.

[Andy Holloway]

You guys, I need the glasses.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we just go.

[Jason Moore]

Just pass them around for future shows.

[Mike Wright]

We'll keep them on the table for when you want to say something.

[Andy Holloway]

I already knew.

[Jason Moore]

Let Me.

[Andy Holloway]

Just let me tell the people this before I tell you my backfield. I already knew the show was going to be a challenge. Like sometimes you go through things in your life that you know will refine and change you and build you as a person and also tempt you to murder your friends. And this show might be that because I already know the names coming in these early bus pics and frankly, they're great. I don't like them. And then that comment about Ronald Jones is ridiculous as well. But listen, we also have an exciting announcement I'm going to tell people about in just a minute. But the backfield I'm avoiding, it actually ties into one of my busts. So put the pieces together if you want to, but it's Miami's backfield, okay. Which currently is a combination of Frank Gore, Kenyon Drake and Calum Balaj. Fresh draft pick by Adam Gaze. There are a lot of reasons to dislike this backfield. One general principle in my life, I've. I've set out to draft running backs from winning teams. I don't think Miami qualifies as that this year. That's just my take. If you're a Miami Dolphin fan, I'm sorry, you can make fun of my Cardinals. They're probably not going to win either. That's number one. Number two evidence of last year, last year was they were dead last. 32nd out of 32nd in rushing attempts per game. So you had teams at the top, Carolina, Minnesota, Buffalo. By the way, all the top four rushing attempt teams made the playoffs. That's 30, 33 attempts a game. They averaged 22 attempts a game that they now get to divide against those three players who we don't know what their long standing value is. And I'll talk about Kenyon, Drake, oh, very soon.

[Jason Moore]

Get the glasses.

[Andy Holloway]

But I don't want any piece of Miami's offense. And now you take Jarvis Landry out of it. So I just don't have a lot of confidence there. I'm staying away from them because of what I have to pay. Now, Jason, you know, I know that you'll talk about Frank Gore later this offseason, most likely, and look, he may be the eternal value at the position, but I don't really want to touch that backfield.

[Mike Wright]

No, I mean, I don't think Frank Gore is a value that you're going to get a top 12 or even Mr. RB12, but he'll have some games. He'll have some games where the value is there. You can get some starts, some flex opportunities. You know, when Kenya Drake gets hurt, which has always been the knock on him, you'll have a few workhorse games.

[Andy Holloway]

Twitter. You can find us on Twitter @ the FF Ballers. It is Thursday. It is Father's Day in a few days, and we decided to have a little fun. So you want to check out our YouTube channel. There's a very.

[Jason Moore]

It's the live stream. And this.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, there's a very fun dad jokes video that we have now put up on the YouTube channel.

[Jason Moore]

Jason is surprised by this news of a video we made that he is in.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I forgot that it was going up today.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's up already.

[Mike Wright]

It's a huge day.

[Andy Holloway]

It is.

[Mike Wright]

It's. We. Yes, it's a huge day. You've got to go watch the video.

[Andy Holloway]

YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. Check the video out, share the video. Everyone goes. It's a happy Father's Day gift.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And because if you know this show, it's nicknames, it's puns and his dad jokes.

[Mike Wright]

Inaccurate fantasy football.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And hate blockers.

[Jason Moore]

Sometimes we do football.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, so let's go ahead and jump into a little bit of news.

[Mike Wright]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, I don't have a mediocre signing of the week for the running back position, but if I did, I'd push the button right now.

[Jason Moore]

And it's not just. I think it's positionless. Yeah. Hit it. Let's find out. Well, let's find out together.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we're all family. Mediocre signing of the week.

[Andy Holloway]

You guys are. You guys are my best friends. You're right. And Terrence west was signed by the Saints. Terrence west was real bad last year.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the big bottom five for.

[Jason Moore]

For the dynasty crowd.

[Andy Holloway]

Yours for carry.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, Jonathan Williams.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

The Saints don't think you can get it done or it just. It. The signing to me of Terrence was. Does not make sense.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, who else did they have to come out and work out?

[Mike Wright]

They had Jamal Charles.

[Jason Moore]

I'm saying it. For Jonathan Williams to become anything, it doesn't make sense for them to have brought him in with the amount of guys who were already there on this depth chart for just four games.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

To bring Terrence west in.

[Mike Wright]

Terrence west is going to be involved the first four games. It's not going to be Jonathan Williams. They. They didn't bring in a group of guys.

[Jason Moore]

He'll get the first opportunity.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. They didn't bring a group of guys in to try out and sign someone and go look at, you know, bigger named veterans who were out there that tried to get demarco Murray in. He didn't want to come in. In a group audition situation, it is telling that the Saints are going.

[Andy Holloway]

I think they're going to use Mark Ingram situation. I mean, he's gone, he's gone. And they're not. They can't count on Jonathan Williams. Even. Even if you believe he might flash in preseason, you have to bring in more competition. So Terrence west is there. Does this affect your view of Alan Kamara in any way? No, it only makes me feel better about Alvin Camara because you didn't bring in somebody that, you know, if you had brought in DeMarco Murray, if you had brought in somebody with a higher profile name, I think I would have been more like, okay, they really are going to limit the Camaro workload. West is going to make it very apparent that they don't need to.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and west, what he will bring to the table is, to use a baseball analogy, you have your fastball, you have the go to the heater, and then you have the change up, which is just this plodding slow ball that you're hoping is going to trick somebody. So they're going to put west in, have the defense adjust to the football skill and talent of that. And then you put Khmera in you and you go, holy crap.

[Andy Holloway]

Baseball, they call.

[Jason Moore]

Can't catch him.

[Andy Holloway]

They call that moving the eye level. You're changing the eye level. And now they're, oh, we don't have to run so fast.

[Jason Moore]

I'm gonna take it easy on this play.

[Mike Wright]

James west is only 27 years old. Is that surprise either of you?

[Andy Holloway]

No. That doesn't seem that young either.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, no, sure, but I thought. I just view him as like 30 year old legs.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, he does. He does have those. Andrew Luck, listen to this. He didn't throw a Nerf football. He didn't throw a children's football. This wasn't Pee Wee. This wasn't Pop Warner. He threw a high school football.

[Mike Wright]

Now, to be fair, a couple weeks ago, in secret, when no one could watch, he threw a real football.

[Andy Holloway]

So I watch.

[Mike Wright]

Andrew Luck is a bust.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, the glasses. Oh, get him. Get the glasses.

[Andy Holloway]

Ridiculous. So, listen, we watched the entirety of his press conference.

[Jason Moore]

Brooks, get me some glasses. And I want in on this action.

[Andy Holloway]

I have to say, if Andrew Luck is back and healthy, we all know what he is. But Andrew Luck spent 10 to 15 minutes in that press conference telling himself that he's okay. Yeah, he really did. He said, you know.

[Jason Moore]

He did.

[Andy Holloway]

Equivocating between the difference between soreness and pain. Equivocating on the difference between, you know, throwing, you know, listening to my body and telling my body things.

[Jason Moore]

He went full Stewart Smalley.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Oh, yeah. I believe it in my body.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm putting it in my bones is what he said.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. And the reality is so like, you know, we. If you watch, you know, just a clip on NFL Network or something like that, a lot of times they only show the clip where he says the pain is gone. It's. It's gone. It's not like last year.

[Andy Holloway]

I hope so.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. But if you watch the whole thing, I've never. I have. This is the first time I can remember where I watched a truly good, progressive moment you've been waiting for in a player's career. Watch an entire press conference about the good moment. And I thought to myself while watching this, I need to move Ty Hilton down. That's what I thought. James did a no joke.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that why a signed Ty Hilton 8 by 10 photo went for $15.05 on pristine auction yesterday?

[Jason Moore]

15.

[Andy Holloway]

15.

[Mike Wright]

I'll take it.

[Andy Holloway]

It might have been right after the press conference. Look, we want to thank Pristine Auction for sponsoring today's podcast. Many of you have heard us talk about them before, so I want to let you know some recent auctions beyond the TY Hilton Sign 8x10 Jersey Devonte Adams signed Packers jersey. Saw a question, I believe on our Instagram about Adams vs. AJ Green this year. $68. A Tyreek Hill signed Chiefs jersey 48. Or I'm sorry, $46.80 Golden Tate sign jersey $47. This is just yesterday. And there are hundreds of daily auctions you know and can trust Pristine Auction to give you the best sports memorabilia. Authentically autographed memorabilia. They've been doing it for a long time and they're doing it right. They have the best customer service in the industry. They have a lot of great options like framing, things like that. So do not miss your chance to check out pristineauction.com browse for your favorite player, find a Father's Day gift, whatever it might be, and let them know that the fantasy footballer sent you when you sign up.

[Jason Moore]

We want to thank Quip for sponsoring today's show. Quip is all I use when it comes to brushing my teeth. Well, I lied. I use some toothpaste on the quip. But I love my Quip electric toothbrush. It costs a fraction of the bulk of your brushes Packs the right amount of vibrations to clean your teeth. The built in timer is a lifesaver. In the morning when I'm full groggy because the kids have kept me up all night and then woke me up early, I know that my quip toothbrush is going to let me know. Do I got to keep brushing? Am I good to go? Are my teeth clean? The toothbrush helps you out by doing that. It comes with a suction mount. You just stick it right to your vanity mirror. It's very, very easy. Everyone loves quip. They were on Oprah's O list. Name one of times best inventions and is the first subscription electric toothbrush accepted by the American Dental association right now. Foot Clan Quip starts at just $25. If you go to getquip.comfootballers right now, you're gonna get your first refill pack free with a quip electric toothbrush. That's your first refill pack free at getquip.com footballers spelled G-E T Q U I P.com footballers two questions.

[Andy Holloway]

Number one, how do we get on that O list with the ultimate draft kit? Is that. Do you think that Oprah's a big fantasy football player?

[Jason Moore]

I think she would be.

[Mike Wright]

If she got the ultimate draft kit. She'd be like, wow, I gotta play this. This is gonna be fun.

[Andy Holloway]

You get a draft.

[Mike Wright]

Kidding.

[Andy Holloway]

You get a draft kit?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

Question number two. Based on the progression of Andrew Luck, which despite the interpretation of the press conference was a step forward for him, he was throwing the ball in public to other players. Are you adjusting anything based on where we're at? You know, here, June 14th, I've still.

[Jason Moore]

Left him very high in my rankings.

[Andy Holloway]

That's where he is for me as well. I have him in the Matthew staff. I have Matthew Stafford pretty high. I've got them, I think five, six.

[Jason Moore]

Yep, I've still got him up there. There's, in my estimation, plenty of time for him to get back. I'm reminded of the Peyton Manning drama, which is different. But the guy they talked about, he literally could not grip a football. And I know we're talking about hall of Fame Peyton Manning. So it's a little bit different.

[Mike Wright]

It could be hall of Fame Andrew Luck could be.

[Jason Moore]

But as of right now, Peyton Manning at that time was one of the best quarterbacks of all time already. So you could have a little comfort in him falling back to that. But I just, I think Andrew Luck will be okay.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, man. I've still. I haven't moved him, but I have him at 19.

[Andy Holloway]

So you also called him a bus two minutes ago.

[Mike Wright]

Right. So I didn't need to move him because I, you know, I will move him when I see him playing in the preseason. If for any reason he's not playing all out in preseason. If they. Well, we gotta be gen you're about to play an NFL season and get smashed. If you're worried about throwing a football come preseason, then I'm basically leaving him where he is, which is about quarterback 20.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk bus.

[Mike Wright]

Bus.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, this is a perfect show for Jason and the hate ball, hate blockers. But let me, let me say this. I want to let the listeners out there know and understand what we're talking about when we say the word bust.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Because loaded. It's easy to interpret that to mean something as extreme as you believe that this player that was great is going to fall off the face of the earth and become irrelevant. And that is not what we're saying when we talk about bus either here on the early Bus show where we're each picking out two candidates, or in the ultimate draft kit when we designate some consensus candidates for the bus list, what we're talking about is a player that is going to return less than their draft value and disappoint in some fashion. They're in. So we're talking about a player that we don't have high expectations for, that the community might have high expectations for and that we see a different path for them. We see them as a landmine in the middle of your fantasy football draft. And we're saying don't step on it.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think, I think another way to put this is that it's the pick. The pick in your draft is going to be a bus. It's not the player necessarily, but it's. If you draft this player there, you're going to regret it. Because, for instance, my first bust. And I'll lead us off.

[Jason Moore]

You start us off.

[Mike Wright]

I'll start us off. This is the first time that anything like this has ever happened in my memory. But my bust candidate is also ranked as my fourth highest quarterback. Go figure that one out. I've got Deshaun Watson. Can't do it as a bust. But let me explain, because you go, wait, he can't be a bust if he finishes. If he's your fourth best quarterback, there's no way that's a bust. And I'm saying, no, no, no. If he finishes as quarterback four and you take him where he is currently being Drafted, you have made a gigantic bust decision. That's if he does what I think he's capable of doing with his rushing, which is being a solid quarterback. And here is why I think DeSean Watson's a bust. Every draft I've participated in that has been real. He's gone as the number two quarterback. It goes Aaron Rodgers and then it goes to Sean Watson. Now when Aaron Rodgers slides down into the fourth round, that's where I consider taking him. Because Aaron Rodgers has a history of completely out producing the class. He is either, you know, in most of his 16 game seasons, he's either first or second. First or second. He goes back and forth every year. He lost Jordy for a year, he was seventh, whatever, he was still great. But he has, he's a first ballot hall of Famer. And that round is where I go, he might be, he might be worth taking there. But in that same round you're talking about taking desean Watson, a guy who, yes, he had a few game stretch where if you extrapolate that, you couldn't.

[Jason Moore]

Even look at him. No, he burnt your eyes.

[Mike Wright]

Why you think I'm wearing.

[Jason Moore]

No, you're injured.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he burnt bright for that period of time and yes, he was on pace for 48 touchdowns and almost 5,000 yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I was gonna say he. That period of time is also known as his entire career. No, not put it that way too.

[Mike Wright]

Let me take his first two games. If I take his first two games, then he's on pace for 1800 yards and eight touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, all I mean is if you extrapolate the entirety of his career, it's very nice.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, it is very nice and it could happen. But we have to keep in mind he's a rushing quarterback. He is coming off an acl. Granted it's not as severe as Carson Wentz. My point again, I believe he's going to be the fourth quarterback. According to my projections, that's solid. But that's not good enough. And I've got provable examples here in my. Now this isn't to say my rankings are going to come really hard to.

[Andy Holloway]

Take him seriously with the glasses.

[Jason Moore]

Back to the notes, back to the notepad.

[Mike Wright]

No, I came prepared. Look, according to my projections where he's my number four quarterback. If I compare that versus quarterbacks going in the 10th round according to ADP Stafford, Matt Ryan Rivers, Big Ben and I look at the largest gap I have, whoever I like the least versus Watson, the largest gap of points in my projections is 33 points. The smallest is 9. But if I take a look at the running backs in round four versus the running backs in round 10, and that's in round four. We got Alex Collins, Kenyon Drake, Jaya Jai and Sony Michelle. Some of those guys I don't even really like. I don't love Jay Ajayi this year. I don't have him ranked that high. If I take him, my least favorite and I put him up against my least or my, my favorite in the 10th round, which would be between LeGarrett Blunt and Doug Martin, that's 48. That's more on the smallest end of the range or 84 points on the most. There's just no way. Unless, unless he comes out and is an absolute world beater, first ballot hall of Famer this year. That's the only way you're getting value at him in the fourth round. He's going to be a bust if you draft him there. That's what I'm saying. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I, you know, the odds are probably.

[Jason Moore]

They are against him.

[Andy Holloway]

His odds are against him to do what he was doing. I think he's going there because when he played at that level, he won you your week automatically.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

It's very much like a handful of years ago when Michael Vick.

[Jason Moore]

I was just going to say it's the Michael Vick year. All of a sudden he was the first overall pick in fantasy football.

[Andy Holloway]

If you knew that Deshaun Watson was going to be the number one quarterback and you draft him in the fourth round, you're fine. Sure. But the odds aren't in that in your favor there. Coming off an injury with an unsustainable pace. I understand the argument. I think Watson will be very good. And you do, too.

[Mike Wright]

I have him just rushing for 500 yards, rushing for four touchdowns, throwing 24 touchdowns and 3,400 yards. Those are great fantasy numbers and that's what I'm calculating this bust. So if he, if he, He. Yes, he could, he could exceed that. But what if he, what if he disappoints this year?

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

It'll be an unmitigated. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

What.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, Cam Newton had a year like that where he was the world beater number one and then people drafted him high and.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Finished 15 or whatever. Mike, do you want to share an early. Oh, gosh, you guys.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. I will go with my first bust. And it's. I just think that this guy is going to disappoint. And you know what? It disappoints me that I have to say this Because I love the player. I love his talent.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my goodness. I had not seen the second one.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going with my first one. It's Corey Davis who is currently drafted as the wide receiver 27. And in my, in my projection, I think that will go up the closer we get to actual draft season. But I did all my calculations as the wide receiver 27. Marcus Mariota, the highest level wide receiver he has ever sustained was the wide receiver 20. Before that, in 2015, his number one wide receiver was wide receiver 60, wide receiver 20 in 2016 and then 2017. The wide receiver 37. His new OC is Matt LaFleur, who's coming from the Sean McVay coaching system, which.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

The Rams were an amazing offense, except they were 24th in pass attempts this past year. And that's the situation. That's my, my biggest problem with Corey Davis is a matter of volume. Last year, let's, let's go with last year's statistics. Mario in 16 games was on pace for about 483 attempts, which is it. That's what he's been doing his whole career. His attempts are generally lower because he runs the ball 60 times a year. He's not always forcing an attempt. If I give Corey Davis what he had in the playoffs because that's when he actually performed, he had a 22% target share, that'd be about 106 targets. And if I give him his playoff catch rate, which was much higher than his in season at 60%, he. He comes out to 63 receptions for 693 yards because the volume is just not there. I don't think Mariota will force a target share onto one guy. Rashad Matthews is still, is still good. Delaney Walker is still crucial to that, that offensive situation. And if he puts up that kind of yardage, and that's me projecting him at the higher end, giving him his really good numbers from this past year, he still. He's under 700 yards. The only the wide receiver with under 700 yards. The highest he was ranked for fantasy. That was Michael Crabtree, who was wide receiver 29. He needs at least seven touchdowns to.

[Andy Holloway]

Which he can do.

[Jason Moore]

Which he can do.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the one thing he can do is even, even if you're right about all the projections and nothing goes up and you don't see a growth. He could score 10 times.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, sure.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean he's. He's got the physical capability to do what Mike Evans has done in the past, which is pulled down 10, 11, 12 touchdowns, he could, but they, they.

[Jason Moore]

Also use, they use Rashard Matthews as the deep threat. The yards per target, the yards per reception, I should say for Corey Davis is right around that 10. So a lot of yard mark.

[Andy Holloway]

A lot of what you're saying though is on the basis that Corey Davis also ascends in terms of average draft position. Because right now I said, is he a six round bust? Because he's a six round pick.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I think you'll take.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you take Will Fuller or Corey Davis?

[Jason Moore]

Ooh, I would take. At that point, I would take Corey Davis, Chris Hogan.

[Andy Holloway]

I would take Hogan, Pierre Garcon, Julian Edelman. Garcon, not Edelman. Because of the suspension. Edelman is Devin Funch.

[Jason Moore]

We'll see.

[Mike Wright]

So Andy, you are, you are opposed to this, to Mike's bust call?

[Andy Holloway]

Look, I'm not opposed to him outlaying the situation.

[Mike Wright]

No, of course.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't have. Look, Corey Davis's track record is.

[Mike Wright]

But you're a Corey Davis support.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm a truth. Yes, I'm a Corey Davis believer.

[Mike Wright]

You're very against.

[Jason Moore]

No, like I said, it hurts me.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, hey, Andy, we should do this. When you guys made me a hater of Larry Fitzgerald. I believe Mike hates Corey Davis.

[Jason Moore]

Fine, fine. I hate his draft value in the sixth.

[Andy Holloway]

You said he's being drafted as the 27th wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And you believe he'll finish where?

[Jason Moore]

I believe that he will finish under the wide receiver. 27.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I don't know. It's tough. Yeah, I understand. Yeah. Certainly you make the case statistically for what he sustained. It's just a matter of. Do you believe that Corey Davis is the same thing he's had? And do you believe that Matt Lafleur.

[Mike Wright]

You know, I like Matt LaFleur.

[Andy Holloway]

And every statistical argument against Jared Goff was against him last year until he had a year that was better than that. So if you mix the floor and Davis.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

But, but even for, for Jared Goff.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think you're paying a lot for Davis. That's the problem I have with the.

[Jason Moore]

Bust in the sixth round.

[Mike Wright]

No. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

27Th wide receiver off the board with perceivably top 15, 16 upside to me. Would you disagree? That's the upside.

[Jason Moore]

No, I want. I would know. I'm not disagreeing with that. I mean, like I said, if the variance. Look, everybody is very high for Corey Davis.

[Andy Holloway]

Every fit. Yes. And every fantasy owner out there has to make a decision on him. And you're making one right now, which is. I do respect That I actually thought I'd be really upset about Corey Davis being picked here. That's why I posted a picture of you with a giant head on Twitter. But the reality is, look, you make that argument on what he's been able to sustain and depending on what you believe about Mariota and Rashad Matthews and the wide receivers he's had. Look, I get it. Corey Davis hasn't done anything other than a couple of playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

And I am not of the ilk that says, well, he's never done it, so he isn't going to do that. I don't. I hate that argument. It's just when I'm breaking down the numbers, it doesn't make sense. And it's not. It's not only a wide receiver to wide receiver comparison in the sixth round. Also going there. Evan Ingram. I would rather have Evan you die.

[Andy Holloway]

On another hill in the sixth round.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. I'm going to stay on the same team. My boss is Derek Henry and this one just stands out to me immensely because he's going, depending on your league format, somewhere between the end of the second and the end of the third round, that's where he's going.

[Mike Wright]

That's too high.

[Andy Holloway]

The Titans, in case you're wondering, in case your eyes were closed, in case you were wearing whatever glasses Jason's wearing where you can't see out of them, they could not run the ball last year. Okay. In the first half of games, spanning 500 carries for that offense, Henry averaged 3.1 a carry. The only player in the entire NFL worse than him was DeMarco Murray, who averaged 3.0. So the two worst runners when they tried to establish the offense across 500 plus carries were on the same team. He was stuffed. Derrick Henry was stuffed on 40% of his third and short carries. That's the fourth worst in the last two years.

[Mike Wright]

He.

[Jason Moore]

That is just.

[Andy Holloway]

He presents himself to be the third and short monster.

[Jason Moore]

How is that happening? I mean, like, I'm not arguing the stats like, he is a mon. Literally a monster of.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a creature of the.

[Jason Moore]

On third, the largest short form.

[Mike Wright]

You're.

[Jason Moore]

How can you not convert?

[Mike Wright]

He needs a head of steam.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't worry. Here's who. Who. Here's who was worse than him. Guys, good company. Jeremy Hill, Terrence West, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller. That's the ragtag bunch he gets to go around town with. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Hey, but at least he's going to catch.

[Andy Holloway]

Those four players are 100% cooked. They're done, they're finished. They're overdone.

[Mike Wright]

I hold out judgment on Lamar Miller.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, sure. He's been done for years. They say all the right. Look, they say all the right things about him right this off season. And look, DeMarco Murray was done, so they let him go. They said everything about Derek Henry, and then they went out and spent money on the most expensive free agent running back to bring him in there to be a supplement. I don't think they really believe that Derek Henry is going to give them enough each and every game. And I think you have to believe right now that he will. And you're drafting him three rounds ahead of Dion Lewis, two rounds ahead of Dion Lewis. I just don't get it. Like, the odds of him delivering that value to me are low now, much like Corey Davis, he could give you 12 touchdowns because he's enormous. But apparently on third and short, he's not getting in the end zone. So I have my hesitancy about Derek Henry. I see him as a bus candidate.

[Mike Wright]

I love the pick. I would absolutely qualify him as a bus candidate, especially for where he's going within the running back rankings.

[Jason Moore]

My problem is the draft price, because I think I'm on the side of. I think Henry's going to be good for fantasy this year. But if you're right in that range for the running backs, you're talking Rashad Penny, Alex Collins, Kenyon Drake is in there. Darius Geiss. I mean, I think four of those guys I would rather have over Derek Henry to. To pay at that draft price.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Jason, now. Now we're talking. Now you're going to bring up a name that I just. I think I've heard the argument before, but I. I do oppose you in this.

[Mike Wright]

Sure, sure. And look, I have a tweet from a couple months ago that talked about this player. It's kind of dark in here under these shades. I'm talking about shady. Talking about Lashawn McCoy. I have a tweet where I said.

[Andy Holloway]

I actually have a pair of sunglasses from. From Leshawn McCoy's brand. He has a shady raised pair of.

[Mike Wright]

You're gonna want to put those on this year while you watch.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, come on.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, because here's the thing with LaShawn McCoy. I tweeted out that man. I just really want to hate him. But there's just no foreseeable way for him to not have 315 touches unless he gets injured. So I will grant you the fact that he is going to get the work if he doesn't get Injured. I just don't think we're going to be happy with the results. I think injury could be a realistic outcome and I, you know, here's my argument. Okay, can I.

[Jason Moore]

Hold on, I'm having trouble.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me just do this. Judge Giamatti, are you there? Yes, sir. Are you listening to all of this?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Can I please register a formal objection?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, okay. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Can it be on record, a formal objection? Thursday, June 14th. I want to return to this objection later in life.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

I will do just about anything.

[Mike Wright]

We should get a ruling here in a little bit. Here's the thing. A lot's been made, you know, time and time and time again about age 30 is the death age for running backs, right?

[Andy Holloway]

That's not sure that's exactly how it's worded.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it's where, you know, running backs, career, just their fantasy production falls off a cliff. Now in general, there's a lot of data to support this. If you dive a little deeper, depending on how you dive, are you looking at carries? Are you looking at volume? Are you looking at what some, some reports might say? Well, it's actually 31 is the age where their fantasy production really falls off. Although maybe it's 29 if you say a minimum of 150 carries. But the point is valid. There's a lot of data that supports fantasy production around the age 30, even for superstar hall of fame caliber Sean Alexander.

[Andy Holloway]

I knew that name was coming.

[Mike Wright]

Well, you know, it's coming for a reason. And he's not the only one.

[Andy Holloway]

He didn't mention Emmett Smith, just John Alexander.

[Mike Wright]

There's a lot of people that do that. Now other studies have shown, okay, it's, it's not about age, it's about volume. Volume has much more to do with it than age does. That's why guys like Fred Jackson can do more late in their career because they didn't have the volume on their legs. And the number numberfire did this incredible deep dive study a couple years ago where they showed that there is a number out there that is really dangerous for a lot of players. And it's whenever they're rushing carries crosses 1800 the following season, their efficiency dies. That's the end. And here's the deal. This past season, Shady crossed 1800 carries. So that's just to say that's not a guarantee. But it's to say that historical data says that when you hit around age 30, by the way, he turns 30 in about a month. And when you cross 1800 carries, by the way, he's crossed 1800 carries this past season. Those are historical data points for when the fall might come. Now, let's say. Let's say Shady's better than all those other players.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, Andy's getting sweaty.

[Mike Wright]

How are the Bills? How are the Bills doing right now? How they looking? How about.

[Jason Moore]

How's that?

[Andy Holloway]

Better than you think.

[Mike Wright]

Really?

[Andy Holloway]

Better than you think.

[Mike Wright]

Offensive line, Eric Wood. How'd he. How's he doing? Oh, he had to retire. Unfortunate. What about the guy just to the left of him, their guard? Richie Incognito, man. Oh, yeah, he's retired, too. Well, at least they didn't trade their left tackle.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, they did.

[Mike Wright]

So you're telling me that his entire.

[Andy Holloway]

Left side of the line, I just bit my tongue off?

[Mike Wright]

That wasn't.

[Andy Holloway]

Bit my tongue right off the entire.

[Mike Wright]

Left side of the line. That was not replaced in the draft and free agency.

[Jason Moore]

They're playing two linemen. Did you know that?

[Mike Wright]

That's what it seems like, man. I mean, they have now what has to have gone from a good offensive line to one of, if not the worst in the league. And then in addition to all of that.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, great.

[Mike Wright]

Tyrod Taylor opens things up for running backs. You have the threat of him as a rushing quarterback. He's gone. And the guys replacing him are the opposite.

[Jason Moore]

Josh Allen can move.

[Mike Wright]

No, Josh Allen can move, sure. But they're going to start with A.J. mcCarron. I don't.

[Jason Moore]

They won't. It'll be Josh Allen.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think they won't.

[Mike Wright]

Let's say Josh Allen is from week one. Okay. I think they are stacking the box like they've never done before in Buffalo.

[Andy Holloway]

If. Okay, hold on, hold on, hold on. Let me cool off. Let me cool off. First of all, I want to correct one thing. You said he was past the 1800 threshold before last season. Okay, the death threshold.

[Jason Moore]

So he was.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I get it. You can use that as an argument that he's got even more on his record. He had 2,000 carries before last season. 1998, he went out for 1138 yards and six touchdowns and still four carry and still was shady.

[Mike Wright]

How much a carry was that? His worst of his career. Did it. Did his efficiency drop after his 1800?

[Andy Holloway]

You said it dropped off a cliff and it was mad.

[Mike Wright]

And it was only his worst carry yards per carry career.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, this is the first year I've ever.

[Jason Moore]

Running back 7.

[Andy Holloway]

He's the first year I've ever had to scroll on the ADP page to find Leshawn McCoy. He's going in the back of the second round. You're insane if you think he's going to be a disappointment on that kind of value. He's not a first round pick. He's 209.

[Jason Moore]

He is the slippery fish.

[Andy Holloway]

He also has played with about seven other quarterbacks than Tyrod Taylor as the argument and seven other offensive lines. And he's always been Shady McCoy. But I'm going to digress because I think Mike wants to participate in this.

[Jason Moore]

To call him a bust at the back of the second for a running back that should touched the ball easily over 300 times. He is their best receiving option. He's their best running option. He is a carry for Shady McCoy I think is he doesn't generally take hits even though it's funny enough he goes down like every game. He doesn't absorb impact like bruising runners. So I think that he has a little bit of longevity built into his career. And on top of that, the pass catching ability separates him. There are so few three true three down running backs in the league. If you can get a three down running back at the back of the second in a PPR league, if I'm.

[Mike Wright]

In the back of the second, I will draft LaShawn McCoy and I will get a couple games and I will trade him that. I don't think he's going to hold up this year behind that offensive line. That's my worry.

[Jason Moore]

Fair enough. Fair enough. Am I up or are you up?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't remember anymore. Look, I'll. I'll jump in real quick. I. I have Kenyon Drake who's drafted a few picks after Derek Henry as another early bus candidate. I've made the argument about Miami's rushing offense as opposed to Buffalo which was number one in the league last year or.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they had a good offense in the top four.

[Andy Holloway]

We don't know if they have a good.

[Mike Wright]

No, they did.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I know they did. We don't know if they will this year or not just because a couple guys are gone.

[Mike Wright]

You don't.

[Andy Holloway]

We don't know you. I don't. You know Kenyon Drake. Here's the thing that I think is very interesting and I wanted to bring him up. He was a much better rusher than he was a receiver last year. We talk about Kenyan Drake and carving out the receiving role. He was pretty bad from a percentage standpoint. I mean maybe that's the quarterback's play. He was 32 of 50. That's 66%. That was bottom five in the league. Catch percentage, that's Carlos Hyde catch percentage, that's bottom five. And now you've got Drake, Gore, Balaj and 22 carries to go around on a team that's going to be passing in the second half of the game. I don't think he's going to be a, not a completely unproductive player, but I think most people are drafting him in anticipation of an RB2 role and I think he's going to deliver week to week flex appeal unless there's an injury. And so to me, it's just a, It's a bucket full of question marks.

[Jason Moore]

It's.

[Andy Holloway]

It's question mark about the backfield. It's question mark about the volume. Is question mark about his ability actually to perform efficiently on third down. He's a big play guy, but I worry about week to week reliability. So, yeah, I'm passing on Kenyan Drake this year.

[Jason Moore]

I don't blame you. The problem with Kenyon Drake is last year when he finally was given, he wasn't given the. When he finally inherited, he was ready for it.

[Andy Holloway]

He was absolutely ready for it.

[Jason Moore]

He was incredible.

[Andy Holloway]

He was a great runner.

[Jason Moore]

But what confidence does the Miami staff have to give him that level of a workload? The additions they have made to the running back position now, of course you got to fill out your depth chart. I'm not arguing against that. But it seems that they, they are preparing to not give him that type of a workload that he was given when he was the fantasy MVP of the playoffs behind Todd Gurley. Jade Jay's nodding in approval. Are you?

[Mike Wright]

No, no, I'm just listening and loving. Loving life, man.

[Jason Moore]

Just loving life.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, that's all I'm doing here. This is a good, this is a good time with doing my boy over here yelling at each other about fantasy football.

[Jason Moore]

Okay? I love it. This player that I'm going to talk about here, I think will disappoint. And this is another situation. I don't know if the pie is big enough.

[Andy Holloway]

Why the deep breath, Jason?

[Mike Wright]

Because.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you surprised?

[Mike Wright]

I was really surprised when I saw this name.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you gonna yell at him?

[Mike Wright]

I'm not gonna yell at him because I hold myself in it just so well.

[Andy Holloway]

I thought you were gonna go with in incredible esteem.

[Mike Wright]

I hold myself in incredible esteem. No, I just think this guy. I get all the reasons. I understand what you're about to say about this player. My fear in putting him on a list, statistics, you get it, Is that I think he's just great. Like, I think he's A great player. And that's my fear of calling him a bus. I get it. So I'm going to listen now.

[Jason Moore]

The player I fear will not return value on his draft position is Jarvis Landry. So I'll start here. Hugh Jackson as a head coach has produced the wide receiver 28, 21 and 88.

[Andy Holloway]

Not good.

[Jason Moore]

Now, as an OC, he's had some really high level wide receivers, but he's not. He is the head coach. And here's what I'm talking about with the pie. Jarvis Landry in 2016 had 131 targets. He had a 28% share of Miami's targets.

[Mike Wright]

That's my kind of slice of pie.

[Jason Moore]

That's the cartoon where you cut the piece of cake and then you lift the rest of it up, leaving just the one tiny slice. In 2017, Jarvis, 161 targets. Once again, 28%. If you look back at what the Browns have done the past two years, you had Terrell Pryor's incredible season right where he was a thousand yard receiver. He had 140 targets. That was still only 25%. And Terrell Pryor was what? Wide receiver 20, wide receiver 21. And the thing about that is behind Terrell Pryor, the second highest targeted player on that team was gary barnich with 82 targets this past season. Duke Johnson had the most targets on this team at 93. Jarvis Landry has not had to play football with guys that commanded targets the way he does in Cleveland. I know it's a crazy thing to say, but Cleveland is full of offensive weapons from Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, who I, as much as I'm a Josh Gordon, I love Josh Gordon. I think he's great. But Jarvis Gordon or Landry, I'll take Gordon.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

But both Gordon and Jarvis Landry are going to disappoint people based on their draft position because I see them both finishing in that. Maybe you're a wide receiver too. Maybe you're a high end. Three.

[Andy Holloway]

You have to be very prolific for two guys to be.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So the ADP is, is out of control that two players on this team and the attempts are just. They're not going to be there now. It's. How long is it going to be? Tyrod Taylor, who. This is the same type of situation as Marcus Mariota. The attempts are lower because he runs so much. And what, what is going to change for the Cleveland Browns? Are they going to say, okay Tyrod, we're. You're going to throw the ball a ton, which you've never really done. And you're talking things were optimal as far as garbage time this past season and they. The Cleveland Browns still had 574 attempts. They were like a middle of the pack.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what I was going to ask because if you thought their defense wasn't going to step up.

[Jason Moore]

They want to run the ball.

[Andy Holloway]

Would they guard? Well, they wanted to last year. Right. Hugh Jackson stuff it down their throat with Isaiah Cruel and then they'd give up on in the second quarter because they didn't have the option.

[Jason Moore]

Right. But I'm saying they. Even when they were forced to pass the ball, we did. They did not produce.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you think about Todd Haley? What do you. I mean he brought up the numbers that Hugh Jackson put up with his top wide receivers, but Todd Haley brings something to that.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Equation.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he does. And I don't think that Jarvis Lander is necessarily going to be terrible. I just don't think that he will return value where you are drafting him because of. Because of the pie of. And I didn't even talk about in Joku. Duke Johnson. The newly extended. Duke Johnson. These guys are going to be involved.

[Andy Holloway]

They made him taller.

[Jason Moore]

Was that what I said?

[Mike Wright]

No. The newly extended. Oh, so.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you did nothing wrong, Mike. You deserve the rim shot button on that one, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

You do.

[Andy Holloway]

Too bad.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, is it broke bad.

[Mike Wright]

There we go.

[Jason Moore]

But 161 targets, that's not what I see in the realm of possibilities for Jarvis Landry this year. And we know that despite last year's increasing incredible success of scoring touchdowns inside the 10 zone, that's not been his. That's not his forte either. So I.

[Andy Holloway]

What's his career worst finish as a wide receiver? Do you know that?

[Jason Moore]

Off the top of my head, I do not.

[Mike Wright]

Probably like 18 is my guess.

[Jason Moore]

I can pull it up.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we can look that up. I will say this.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a very difficult to discern player because if he's being drafted as the wide receiver. 24 and I don't have a like, I don't have any strong opinions about like your take being right or wrong here. It just seems like 24 is probably well below his career worst.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

But that's giving me pause.

[Mike Wright]

That's where you go towards the argument he's making. Honestly, I like your argument, Mike, in the sense that it reminds me a lot of my argument against Earl Pryor last year from a target. Like where are the targets coming from? You can't just. You can't just manufacture them. You have to look at the team and say, okay, then who isn't getting these targets at an expected rate that the quarterback's going? So, I mean, you know, and the truth is, I don't have a whole lot of pass targets for this offense this year because Tyrod doesn't throw a lot. And I don't think he will when they bring in Baker. Baker will throw a lot in his career. But usually rookies, their. Their attempts are not super high, which would lead the offense to say, okay, if, If. If Jarvis is around 20, which is still a really okay number, really good. That's going to. That could very well disappoint. So while I think Jarvis Landry is a great player, I like your argument.

[Jason Moore]

So here's the thing.

[Andy Holloway]

He probably means more to the Browns than he means to your fantasy. Yes, 100%.

[Jason Moore]

And this is my argument is not a knock on Jarvis Landry as a wide receiver. Two years ago, he. In half point, he finished as the wide receiver 14. So it took him 131 targets.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. No, I make sense. Jarvis Lander. You hear the quote he said this morning?

[Jason Moore]

I did not.

[Andy Holloway]

So he talked about, is he mad at me? No, he's mad at somebody else. He said, I have not heard from Ryan Tannehill. I'm not surprised. We didn't really have a good relationship.

[Jason Moore]

That's weird. That's weird.

[Andy Holloway]

Just imagine what kind of relationship if he has a good relationship with his quarterback. How many targets? 600? 700. It's pretty funny, though. I mean, the dysfunction and yet, you know, always open.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Anything else to add with Jarvis Landry?

[Jason Moore]

Nope.

[Mike Wright]

Some.

[Andy Holloway]

Some early bus candidates, some we agree on, some we disagree on. Let's jump in the mailbag.

[Mike Wright]

Mailbag.

[Jason Moore]

Bang, bang.

[Andy Holloway]

Is there a Lashawn McCoy bet there somewhere?

[Mike Wright]

Let's. Sure. How about Lashawn McCoy does not finish as RB1. RB1 water bet.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that's a genuinely good bet. Yeah, I think that's a good bet for both sides because he's not being drafted. What's his.

[Jason Moore]

I was just going to look it up for you guys and you were all, no, I.

[Andy Holloway]

No, that's fine because you said he.

[Jason Moore]

Was seven last year, so he's currently being drafted. Fantasy football calculator and PPR leagues as the running back. 13.

[Andy Holloway]

Perfect.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Perfect.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he seemed. Yeah, that's a great bet. If you have a question you want to ask, ask us the question. I lost.

[Jason Moore]

What happened there?

[Andy Holloway]

I was. I was thinking about something else. If you want to ask us a Question, Go to the website, the Fancy Footballers.com. click the submit a question button.

[Jason Moore]

Focus.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, it's impossible to focus with with the hay blockers. Dan Aykroyd over to the right of me. I mean, this is 302464. TFFB is the voicemail number you can call. You can leave us a voicemail. Let's go ahead and answer one of those. Hey footballers, this is Alexa in Tampa. My question for you guys is in the Dynasty startup draft, is it better to have the rookies integrated in that startup draft or to have a rookie draft completely separate? If so, which one would you do first? Just looking for some of the advantages and disadvantages of that. Anyway, thanks so much, guys. Normally I'm Alexa. Normally I'm asking Alexa questions.

[Jason Moore]

She's never heard that one.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Alexa asks the fantasy footballers.

[Jason Moore]

So here's what I will say to this. Yes, because you're asking this question, I assume you are new to Dynasty, which welcome, welcome to your latest obsession. I think for people who are new to Dynasty, it's more, it would be better for them to separate the drafts because you don't know how to properly value rookies just yet. So I would do your full redraft or not readjust your full startup draft and then you inverse the draft order and you do the rookie draft.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I was going to bring up. I like even if you're not new and I totally agree that a lot of times newer players, if this is a newer dynamic league, they don't know where to properly cycle in rookies and that can make one or two people that maybe has a better idea get an unfair advantage. It's such an important thing as a Dynasty startup draft. But I actually like separating them even for vets of the Dynasty world, simply because being at the very top, getting the elite talent is, you know, that's an advantage obviously. And to be able to reverse the other draft and say, well then you get the top end of the rookies this year, I feel like at the end of both drafts the league is a little bit more even.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I will say this particular year, if you draw pick 12 or whatever, the last thing is and you have the number one rookie pick, you've essentially picked up two first round picks in a startup.

[Mike Wright]

So which is good though that the person that gets, I mean someone's going to get Barkley and so I think that let him be the last pick in the first round.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's an interesting question from Cole in Florida. What are your thoughts on Third round reversal drafts in this format, the draft is just like a snake draft, except that everything flips at the end of the second round. We play in competitive 12 team league with Ballers preferred scoring. You guys do amazing work.

[Jason Moore]

I don't, I don't mind it.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm fine with it. I mean, it's there. There are, you know, those who believe it's more. That it's the more fair way to go with.

[Jason Moore]

Well, because it balances out since the first two rounds. When you look at who are the highest, who scores the most. Right. It's a very heavy curve for these players who are drafted in the first round. That's why they go there for a reason. So it's trying to balance that out a little bit for the players who are unfortunate in the back of the draft.

[Andy Holloway]

Joshua in Oklahoma, would you trade Ezekiel Elliott for Jordan Howard and Dalvin Cook?

[Mike Wright]

Say it again.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

Ezekiel Elliott for Jordan Howard and Dalvin Cook. No scoring format specified.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man, that's a tough.

[Mike Wright]

I think I would rather have Jordan Howard and Dalvin Cook. I mean, it's very, very close. But those are two guys that I think both could finish as RB1s, not just, oh, they're good. I think they could be RB1 good. And so that's what it's going to take for me to give up Zeke.

[Andy Holloway]

I probably would keep Zeke. I think if I asked this question with David Johnson, Ezekiel Levy on Bell, Todd Gurley, I would stick with the singular and assume that I can find, find that diamond in the rough at the time, the running back position if I need to.

[Mike Wright]

It's.

[Jason Moore]

How good do you think Dalvin Cook is going to be?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, right now it does. It comes down to that, too. All right, here's a voicemail question. Hey, footballers, what's going on?

[Jason Moore]

This is Doug in Massachusetts.

[Mike Wright]

Quick question for you.

[Andy Holloway]

My lead is thinking about getting rid of the kicker this year just kind of seems too arbitrary. You know, so many times you may have a great week, but somebody else has a kicker that puts up 20 points and you lose on a coin flip. It seems like, anyways, we're thinking we're going to get rid of them. What do you guys think about that? Thanks a lot.

[Jason Moore]

HEAVY BREATHING intensifies Yes, Doug?

[Mike Wright]

Look, if your league, if the league is considering it, and it's something where it's like people are frustrated with the fact that kickers make such a big difference, and yet we. When's the last time we picked a kicker sleeper or kicker buster? I mean, we listen as fans, we spend all this time watching, reading, investigating, doing statistical analysis. We don't really do that on kickers. But then they come in and you know your last pick in the draft, you go and you pick one and there, there's so much randomness to it. And yeah, okay, there's some things you can look at that are a little bit more predictive of kicker success, but it's not what most people are doing. They're not enjoying kicker research, doing that. So to me, I say add another flex spot, get rid of the kicker and have leagues that are even more active, more enjoyable and aren't done in by the. Oh gosh, this guy.

[Andy Holloway]

My official, I'll go on record, my official opinion on kickers is I like them. I like them to not count for very much. I don't like taking plays out of the game of football that could be exciting and fun for fantasy football, however unpredictable they seem to be and then making them irrelevant for fantasy football.

[Mike Wright]

Would you add punters?

[Andy Holloway]

Huh? Would I add punters?

[Mike Wright]

Because that's a game, you know, that's a play.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a play that affects special teams and the kick return and things like that. I mean, look, yes, you could take that argument to the nth degree. My whole point with it is that I still like them. I don't like them. Accounting for too much of your team's overall impact.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I tried to get rid of kickers forever in our league and what we ended up.

[Andy Holloway]

It's strategic to stream kickers in a certain way. Look at the home matchup and the better kicker. There is strategy to those.

[Mike Wright]

No, like, absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

So I just don't want them to count. Like we had a league where it was, you know, five for a 50, four for a 40, three for a 30, extra point misses or minus two. Look, it's over complicated in my opinion. I like the influence of kickers on my enjoyment of the game, but I don't want them to tip the scales on my matchup with Jason this week because he happens to sign one that scores 21 points and I sign one that misses an extra point and there's a 25 point gap between us because of kickers.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's fair. If you can't get rid of them, nerf them.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. And Jason would kick them. You'd boot them?

[Mike Wright]

I'd give him the boot. You want to know my boom boom kicker of the week? It's nobody.

[Andy Holloway]

You see Graham Gano's that Instagram video, so good.

[Mike Wright]

That made me so happy.

[Andy Holloway]

I love.

[Mike Wright]

Graham Gano is now my kicker number one.

[Andy Holloway]

That's how you judge your kicker. Order based on their Instagram performance.

[Mike Wright]

Family kickball games.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he was. Graham Gano was playing his family kickball game and he's got some small children, probably similar to our kids age. And they, they, they pitch him. You know, they pitch him the kickball.

[Mike Wright]

Gives it a ginger kick.

[Andy Holloway]

He gives it a light, nice little kick. Like six miles into the forest is gone.

[Mike Wright]

Go get it.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, one more.

[Mike Wright]

Then he runs the lap around the base.

[Andy Holloway]

I know, I know. One more question from the Foot Clan. Hey, ballers, Ramy here from Los Angeles, California. Is it Grammy?

[Mike Wright]

That's what I heard.

[Andy Holloway]

To get your consensus on if you take two top three, top four tight ends, is that kind of a jerk move for the rest of the league? Because it's a slim position. For example, if you took wrong and Jimmy Graham or Grog and Travis Kelsey. Thanks.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Graham's Grammy, I don't think it's a jerk move for Graham.

[Jason Moore]

It's a jerk move for your own team.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I was gonna say I'd be thrilled if the guy, like, if I'm near the turn and I'm trying to pick and then it's one guy before me and then he goes, tight end, tight end. I'm doing a cartwheel.

[Andy Holloway]

There's very. It's a very rare thing that you would ever want to do that. And it would have to be on the basis of the fact that you're comfortable flexing that player. Like when Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were both startable assets, or Gates and Gronk, you know, when you brought up Jimmy Graham, that's not a player I would do it with. If you told me that I could get a value on Travis Kelsey and I'd be flexing Kelsey and starting Gronk, I could live in that world, but I wouldn't do it. On the motivation you're bringing up, which is I'm going to get. I'm going to get them by drafting Jimmy Graham.

[Mike Wright]

And the thing is, is, I mean, it's terrible to do if you're in a. In a normal league where you have to start multiple wide receivers or running backs and you only have to start one tight end because you're literally. Yes, you might be.

[Andy Holloway]

That is your flex every week, no matter what.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you might be able to flex.

[Jason Moore]

You are hamstringing yourself. But that's my biggest point is in your flex position, it's no longer a flex. It's two Tight ends because you can't spend the draft capital on that player and then not play them.

[Mike Wright]

And now you've ruined your depth for injuries and things at running back and wide receiver by not taking a round four, round five, running back or wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

And on top of that, you are saying I am hitting on the top two tight ends because the tight end. 3. Last year, Zach Ertz.

[Andy Holloway]

Who.

[Jason Moore]

Everyone loves Zach Ertz because he was scoring great for a tight end.

[Andy Holloway]

What would he have been as a wide receiver?

[Jason Moore]

Zach Ertz scored 165 points. That would make him wide receiver. 20.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And that's not worth. And that's hitting your team. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

That's hitting on the number three. Three guys.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So look, Grammy would have to get the top two guys. And you just.

[Mike Wright]

You're.

[Jason Moore]

You would. You're hamstringing your team.

[Mike Wright]

Don't do it unless it's a massive, like, you know, point and a half per reception type league.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's different.

[Mike Wright]

A ton of flex or something like that. But I would just say Grammy, make some. Make some cookies. Make some apple pies. Come on over and we'll chat about tight ends. Grammys. What?

[Andy Holloway]

Grammy's the best grandmother. Mike, come on.

[Jason Moore]

Well, yeah, because Mike is. No, no, no. Here's the thing. A Grammy is an award that they hand out for musicians, all right? Grammy is not.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but what about that sweet extended Duke Johnson joke?

[Jason Moore]

I am. I am firmly entrenched. If we want to talk about. I don't know if this is a good or bad take, in your opinion, but I am firmly, intentionally about to be a terrible. Take your grandparents.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Grandma, Grandpa, if you want it. Nana, Grandpa, tee to Grammy.

[Mike Wright]

Terrible take.

[Jason Moore]

You need to take yourself and get out.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I'm leaving then, because Grammy and Pop Pop matter to me. Okay. And they matter to my kids, and so do Nana and Papa, and Pop Pop and Papa are different people.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that's a strange way to refer to Frank Gore. That's all I say.

[Jason Moore]

Worse.

[Andy Holloway]

Papa's gonna have a good year down there in Miami.

[Jason Moore]

Play your best ball on draft.com ballers.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot. Com and follow us on twitter @the ffballers.