Early Breakouts & Busts - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast – Episode Summary: "Early Breakouts & Busts" (June 18, 2020)

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into early fantasy football predictions for the upcoming season. They discuss potential breakout players, possible busts, recent NFL news, and provide actionable advice for fantasy managers. Below is a detailed summary of the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

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1. Buy or Sell Segment: Baker Mayfield

Discussion Overview: The hosts analyze the fantasy prospects of Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, debating whether he should be a “buy” or “sell” in fantasy drafts based on his performance and team changes.

Key Points:

• 2020 Performance: Mayfield set a rookie record with 27 touchdowns in 13 starts, following 22 touchdowns in 16 starts the previous year.
• System Improvements: The Browns have upgraded their offensive line, which could enhance Mayfield's efficiency and touchdown potential.
• Supporting Cast: With receivers like David Njoku, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, and Kareem Hunt, Mayfield has a strong set of targets.
• Efficiency Concerns: While Mayfield has the potential for high touchdown numbers, interceptions remain a concern. Moore notes, “He might throw 30 interceptions” ([03:46]).
• Projections:
  • Jason Moore: Projects Mayfield for 26 touchdowns, choosing to sell his value.
  • Mike Wright: Buys Mayfield, projecting up to 30 touchdowns but accounts for potential interceptions ([05:46]).
  • Andy Holloway: Projects Mayfield for 20 touchdowns, expressing uncertainty about his consistency ([05:46]).

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright ([03:29]): “Give the man a chance.”
• Jason Moore ([06:23]): “20 is very low.”

Conclusion: The hosts are divided on Mayfield's fantasy value. While Moore opts to sell based on his projections, Wright remains optimistic, anticipating a high touchdown count despite interception risks.

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2. NFL News and Updates

a. Philadelphia Eagles Injuries

Discussion Overview: The hosts review significant injuries affecting the Philadelphia Eagles, impacting both their offensive line and wide receiver corps.

Key Points:

• Alshon Jeffery: Continues to deal with a Lisfrank injury without a clear return timeline, reducing his reliability and impact on the offense.
• Brandon Brooks: Star right guard Brandon Brooks suffered a torn left Achilles tendon, sidelining him for the entire 2020 season. This poses a severe setback for the Eagles' offensive line ([09:14]).
• Impact on Carson Wentz: With offensive line issues and Jeffery's absence, quarterback Carson Wentz's fantasy value is questioned. His touchdown rates drop significantly without key offensive weapons.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore ([10:34]): “This does not summarize the... gravity.”
• Austin Eckler ([10:34]): “Brandon Brooks's injury is more impactful than the Alshon Jeffery injury.”

Conclusion: The Eagles face considerable challenges with their offensive line injuries, potentially hindering their fantasy prospects and overall team performance for the season.

b. Kyle Shanahan's Contract Extension with the 49ers

Discussion Overview: The 49ers extended head coach Kyle Shanahan with a new six-year contract, underscoring their commitment to his offensive philosophy.

Key Points:

• Offensive Success: Shanahan is renowned for crafting potent offenses, making the 49ers a favorite for strong fantasy performances.
• Future Expectations: The hosts anticipate continued offensive excellence under Shanahan, benefiting players like running back Raheem Mostert ([11:52]).

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore ([12:20]): “Won't be the last time we're talking about a Kyle Shanahan offense on today's show.”

Conclusion: Shanahan’s extended tenure with the 49ers bodes well for their offense, providing stability and confidence in the team’s fantasy prospects.

c. Saints Running Back Coach on Alvin Kamara

Discussion Overview: Joel Thomas, the Saints' running back coach, revealed that Alvin Kamara played through multiple injuries last season, potentially impacting his performance and durability.

Key Points:

• Alvin Kamara's Health: Kamara dealt with knee, ankle, and back injuries during the previous season, raising concerns about his injury susceptibility.
• Fantasy Implications: While Kamara remains a top fantasy asset, questions about his long-term durability persist ([12:59]).

Notable Quotes:

• Austin Eckler ([13:06]): “Every running back gets hurt.”

Conclusion: Despite Kamara's injury history, his elite talent keeps him a valuable fantasy asset, though managers should monitor his health closely throughout the season.

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3. Breakout Candidates

a. Raheem Mostert (49ers, Running Back)

Discussion Overview: Jason Moore highlights Raheem Mostert as a potential breakout candidate, forecasting increased workload and continued high performance in the Shanahan-led offense.

Key Points:

• Last Season's Performance: Mostert had standout games in the latter half of the season, showcasing his speed and efficiency with a high true yards per carry metric.
• 2020 Projections: With Mostert now in Miami, he is expected to receive a larger share of carries (projected 123+ carries), making him undervalued in fantasy drafts.
• Skill Set: His 4.2 speed and 96 percentile burst score position him as a top-tier running back with ample scoring opportunities ([14:32]).

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore ([16:00]): “Raheem Mostert is in a position here with Matt Breida, leaving 123 carries that he had last year.”

Conclusion: Mostert's enhanced role and proven speed make him a prime candidate for fantasy breakout, offering substantial value for managers who draft him early.

b. Hollywood Brown (Wide Receiver, Ravens)

Discussion Overview: Mike Wright champions Hollywood Brown as a breakout wide receiver, citing his speed, route-running abilities, and increased target potential with Lamar Jackson.

Key Points:

• Skill Set: Brown is not solely a deep threat; he excels in route running and has reliable hands, making him versatile in Jackson’s offense.
• Projected Targets: Wright forecasts over 100 targets and up to 100 receptions, placing Brown in contention for a wide receiver one spot ([21:22]).
• Youth and Opportunity: As a young receiver on a dynamic team, Brown is poised to capitalize on increased passing volumes and Lamar Jackson’s development as a passer.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright ([18:00]): “Hollywood Brown is going to have every opportunity to be that guy again this year.”

Conclusion: Hollywood Brown's combination of speed, hands, and potential target share positions him as a high-upside breakout candidate, especially if Lamar Jackson continues to improve.

c. Daniel Jones (Giants, Quarterback)

Discussion Overview: Andy Holloway advocates for Daniel Jones as a breakout quarterback, highlighting his rookie achievements and the Giants' offensive weapons.

Key Points:

• Rookie Performance: Jones threw 24 touchdowns in 12 games, ranking fourth all-time for rookie QB touchdowns on pace for 32.
• Supporting Cast: Surrounded by speedy receivers like Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton, Jones benefits from a fast-paced offense.
• Defensive Weaknesses: The Giants' subpar defense may lead to favorable game scripts, allowing Jones ample scoring opportunities ([28:22]).
• Injury Considerations: While Jones fumbled more than ideal, Holloway emphasizes his potential to improve ball security ([28:53]).

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway ([28:12]): “I really, really believe that Daniel Jones will be a top 10 quarterback by the end of the year.”

Conclusion: Daniel Jones's promising rookie performance, combined with an improving offensive setup, makes him a potential fantasy breakout quarterback, though concerns about consistency and turnover management remain.

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4. Early Busts

a. Austin Eckler (Running Back, Ducks)

Discussion Overview: Mike Wright identifies Austin Eckler as a potential early bust, questioning his receiving role and fear of target regression based on historical trends.

Key Points:

• Last Season's Usage: Eckler's fantasy value was heavily reliant on his receiving, with over 100 targets. Wright fears a drop in target volume this season.
• Historical Analysis: Wright references historical data showing that running backs with 100+ targets often see significant target reductions the following year.
• 2020 Projections:
  • Wright projects Eckler for 166 rush attempts but fears his receiving targets could fall to 60-77, undermining his overall fantasy value ([35:26]).
  • Moore and Holloway express caution, aligning with Wright's concerns about target regression.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright ([35:35]): “I think he could bust for fantasy value.”
• Jason Moore ([40:02]): “I don't think he delivers on last year I have him losing, I think about 20 targets.”

Conclusion: Eckler’s reliance on a high receiving target volume makes him a risky pick, as historical trends suggest a significant drop in targets could lead to underperformance in fantasy leagues.

b. Tyler Boyd (Wide Receiver, Bengals)

Discussion Overview: Jason Moore raises concerns about Tyler Boyd's upside in a rookie-led Bengals offense, especially with established receivers like A.J. Green and T. Higgins.

Key Points:

• Team Dynamics: With the return of A.J. Green and the presence of T. Higgins and John Ross, Boyd's target share may be limited.
• Performance Plateau: Despite reliable performances, Moore questions whether Boyd can surpass his previous 1,000-yard seasons in a more crowded receiving corps ([35:20]).
• Fantasy Footing: Boyd’s average floor of around 800-850 receiving yards is seen as unimpressive for his draft position, leading to doubts about his breakout potential.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore ([43:29]): “Tyler Boyd is just kind of meh to me this year.”

Conclusion: Given the competitive receiving environment in Cincinnati, Boyd may struggle to replicate his prior success, making him a potential early bust for fantasy managers.

c. Stefan Diggs (Wide Receiver, Bills)

Discussion Overview: Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about Stefan Diggs’ fantasy value after his trade to the Buffalo Bills, citing potential target dilution and quarterback uncertainties.

Key Points:

• New Team Dynamics: Diggs joins Josh Allen, whose inconsistency as a passer could limit Diggs’ fantasy potential despite his talent.
• Target Competition: With John Brown and Cole Beasley also in the Bills’ receiving corps, Diggs may face stiff competition for targets.
• Performance Variability: Last season, Diggs had periods of high performance but lacked consistency, which could continue in Buffalo ([46:11]).

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway ([46:04]): “Stefan Diggs is going to have some monster game. And he's going to help Josh Allen.”

Conclusion: Stefan Diggs’ move to the Bills introduces uncertainties regarding quarterback performance and target distribution, potentially making him a disappointing fantasy option if he fails to maintain high target volumes.

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5. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The hosts wrap up the episode by emphasizing the importance of early season evaluations and remaining adaptable in fantasy drafts. They encourage listeners to utilize resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit and engage with the Fantasy Footballers community for ongoing advice and updates.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore ([54:09]): “Take care.”
• Mike Wright ([54:11]): “Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast.”

Final Takeaway: Early breakouts and busts can significantly influence fantasy football success. Managers should consider player roles, team dynamics, and historical performance trends when making draft decisions to optimize their rosters for the upcoming season.

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Additional Resources:

• Website: TheFantasyFootballers.com
• Twitter: @FFFootballers
• Ultimate Draft Kit: Available through the podcast’s website for in-depth draft preparation.

Transcript

[Austin Eckler]

Hey, this is Austin Eckler and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in Thursday, June 18th.

[Austin Eckler]

I know. I don't know what the sounds were there.

[Jason Moore]

2020. Welcome into the show. Mike Wright is here.

[Austin Eckler]

That is correct.

[Jason Moore]

Fantasy hitman.

[Austin Eckler]

The fantasy hat man. These days, my good.

[Mike Wright]

Get a haircut.

[Jason Moore]

We were just talking about that. You have.

[Austin Eckler]

Oh, it's. There's a. There's a troubled situation under this thing.

[Jason Moore]

So much. Yeah, I can see it's growing out over your ears. It's going to get in the way of your earbuds soon.

[Austin Eckler]

It's a problem. It is a problem. We went to the close up. Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

We apologize.

[Jason Moore]

Take the hat off. Show it off, Mike. Oh, now put the hat on. Put it on. Oh, wow.

[Austin Eckler]

It's too late.

[Mike Wright]

I will trade you all of your hair for very little of mine. Which would you prefer, Mike?

[Austin Eckler]

Oh, I'll take mine, thank you.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. How it doesn't feel great sitting on the sidelines when people complain about the fact they need a hair.

[Mike Wright]

I've got too much hair.

[Austin Eckler]

It's just so thick.

[Mike Wright]

My hair is so thick and it's just out of control. It grows so fast everywhere. Do you know the cost I have to pay on shampoo?

[Jason Moore]

Jason Moore is here, if you didn't notice.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, my hair grows slow enough where I'm still.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, to be clear, I said Jason Moore is here. Not Jason Moore's hair.

[Mike Wright]

No. Yes, of course.

[Jason Moore]

Great show for you today. Early breakouts and busts. Some news to talk about. We'll get into the mailbag. You can find us on twitter at. The FFballers giving away a signed Devonte Adams jersey right [e-mail] and definitely check out the website the fantasy footballers.com for new and exciting articles each week. Aaron Larson just threw one up there. Make the most of your mock drafts, which we did on Tuesday and turned out pretty nice.

[Austin Eckler]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you, David Montgomery, for falling into the fifth pick or whatever it was. You guys want to do some buy?

[Mike Wright]

Sell?

[Austin Eckler]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Buy or sell? Presented by Pristine Auction.

[Jason Moore]

It's weird that I just don't even want to talk about this guy anymore.

[Austin Eckler]

That is weird.

[Jason Moore]

Buy or sell? Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield, 27 or more touchdowns in 2020. In his rookie season, that's the number he hit 27. So rookie record.

[Austin Eckler]

Yes. So in 13 starts.

[Jason Moore]

Correct. And then in 16 starts in 2019, he put up a sweet 22. So are you buying or selling? 27 or more. I'm selling.

[Austin Eckler]

Give the man a chance.

[Mike Wright]

I'm buying.

[Austin Eckler]

Yeah, there we go.

[Mike Wright]

You know, I looked. Obviously, we stat everybody out for the ultimate draft kit.

[Jason Moore]

Let's see if I'm buying or selling based on that.

[Mike Wright]

I have BAKER Mayfield throwing 30 touchdowns this year.

[Austin Eckler]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

And that doesn't necessarily mean that he's some fantasy superstar, you know?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he might throw 30 interceptions.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. I've got him with 15 interceptions, so he's down at my quarterback, 16. But he does have a great cast to throw the ball to. Maybe you could. You could make an argument it's the best in the league. Between Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Kareem Hunt. I still believe in David and Joku and a lot of those.

[Austin Eckler]

Is that like, his official legal name now? You can't just call him David and Joki. You have to refer to him as I still believe in David and Jokok.

[Mike Wright]

David and Joku is on the Cleveland Browns. But I think that, you know that a lot of the problem last year was Freddy Kitchens. I don't know that Stefanski is the solution, but I do know for sure that there are great receiving options. So if Baker. I mean, this is just.

[Jason Moore]

Did we just play a clip from last year? I mean, that was true last year. It was true that he had great receipts.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

He didn't have Austin Hooper.

[Mike Wright]

He didn't have Cream Hunt for half the year, and he didn't have Austin Hooper. So I think those are two pretty. Pretty big differences. It was year one with Odell Beckham, who was also injured. So, you know, he had 22, 27 the year prior. This is not out of the realm of possibility.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, 27 is not impossible by any stretch. I'll sell it. I think this team's identity will be the running game. I saw some people talking about Cam Newton because Cam Newton was working out with Odell, Talked about him being a backup option in Cleveland. If the upcoming season were to go the way last year's went for Baker, having some competition, having somebody to step in would have been important. I mean, it was arguably the worst starter of the NF in the NFL last year.

[Mike Wright]

He was bad.

[Austin Eckler]

Yeah, he was very, very bad. And the thing you didn't mention, Jay, is it's the offensive line. Massive, massive upgrades for the Cleveland Browns offensive line compared to last year. And that's.

[Jason Moore]

That should make a big difference.

[Austin Eckler]

That's the difference to me. I have right now, I have Baker projected for 26. So I you know, I'm selling based on my projection, but that's very, very.

[Jason Moore]

It's a soft sell.

[Austin Eckler]

Yeah, it's. I certainly see 30 in the realm of possibilities.

[Mike Wright]

Eddie, what do you have him statted.

[Austin Eckler]

Out for 12, 20, 20.

[Mike Wright]

What?

[Austin Eckler]

You're. He's getting worse.

[Jason Moore]

That is correct, Mike. Based on mathematics, you are accurate. Yes, he's getting worse.

[Austin Eckler]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Actually, I don't have him collapsing this team. Like I said, the identity, the Stefanski offense, the fact that Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt can carry the load and they can have success with that. Yeah. I mean, 20 is low.

[Austin Eckler]

20 is very low. Last year, so Kirk Cousins, when things had completely changed for Minnesota, and I'm not, you know, Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than Baker at this point, but in 15 games of a regular season, Kirk Cousins was at 26. So that even with the. The identity being completely on the running game, I agree. He still hit 26. It's about efficiency.

[Jason Moore]

It is about efficiency, but that also wasn't. It wasn't just like some abnormal low touchdown total last year. It was a low yardage total. It was not having success. He played 16 games. He only threw for 3,800 yards.

[Mike Wright]

I think it's fair to look back at last year and say that Baker Mayfield was bad at quarterback. He was missing guys that were wide open. I mean, when you watch, if you go back and look at all the targets to Odell Beckham, you would talk about two people on a different page of the playbook. They were so out of sync, so many uncatchable targets. He was just flat out bad. And so this is why it's a matter of what do you believe about Baker? Is he just not actually good enough to be an NFL franchise quarterback?

[Jason Moore]

We're about to find out.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And then this is going to be the make or break. I still believe in David and Joku and Baker Mayfield.

[Jason Moore]

All right, that was by herself from Pristine Auction. Pristineauction.com use the code BALLERS. Get a $10 credit on some sweet sports memorabilia.

[Mike Wright]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

Well, we have some. Is this. This is unfortunate. Eagles news. Yes. Become par for the course. Eagles news in some ways. First, Alshon Jeffrey without a timetable for return. If you have to add, I still believe in front of David and Joku, you have to add without a timetable for return. After Alshon Jeffrey, he had a Lisfrank injury in 2019. No timetable to return.

[Austin Eckler]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Al Shawn Jeffrey, once again looking as unreliable as ever.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. If you read the injury blurbs in the ultimate draft kit. That's really telling on Alshon Jeffrey. I mean, that was, you know, done a month ago where it looked like, just based on the injury, what it was when it happened, that it would be a very, very real possibility. He starts the season on the pop and now I think that's the expectation of a lot of Eagles beat writers, is that he's going to miss six games. And that is bad. Bad news for the Eagles. Bad for obviously Alshon and his value. Good news for Jalen Rager trying to get a chance to come in as a rookie with high target volume. But, yeah, that's not good. And it's not the only bad piece of news running the Eagles game.

[Austin Eckler]

I think that's secondary.

[Jason Moore]

Go on.

[Mike Wright]

Right. I think the bigger news is that star right guard Brandon Brooks has suffered a torn left Achilles tendon. He will miss the entire 2020 season.

[Jason Moore]

Brooks told me to hit the loser horn, but that felt really demeaning on a person's actual injury.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that was more about the.

[Austin Eckler]

That to me, that was a horn of sadness.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you.

[Austin Eckler]

Is how I interpreted it.

[Mike Wright]

We were with.

[Jason Moore]

That's where I was with him.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Austin Eckler]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

But this does not summarize the. I mean, that just doesn't summarize the gravity.

[Mike Wright]

It.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, Mike. Hey. Hey, did you hear? Mike broke his leg?

[Austin Eckler]

All right, I see where you're coming from. I see where you're coming from, but.

[Jason Moore]

This is big news.

[Austin Eckler]

Yeah, well, yeah, like, this sucks. This sucks really bad. Not only for the Philadelphia Eagles, but just as fans of football, because this, the Brandon Brooks injury to me is more impactful than the Alshon Jeffrey injury. One, because Jeffrey should be back eventually, but you need the offensive line for everything, for whence, for all, for when Alshon Jeffrey comes back. This is very unfortunate news. He was in fact, PFF Pro Football Focus number one overall, overall guard in 2019.

[Mike Wright]

Think about Carson Wentz when Lane Johnson. Well, this was there and is not there.

[Jason Moore]

This is like two bits of news that just put the Eagles in the exact same spot they were in last year. Yeah, offensive line problems, wide receiver problems. Carson Wentz's career much, much better projections with Alshon Jeffrey in the lineup. From a touch like he's played 23 games without him. His 16 game pace, touchdown wise without Alshon Jeffrey is 18 with Alshon in 33 years.

[Mike Wright]

That's worse than 20.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, with Alshon, it's 34 on a season, so. And you've seen it down in the red zone. Alshon's just Kind of like a go to guy. As annoying as he is for fantasy.

[Austin Eckler]

Owners, he's great on the field.

[Jason Moore]

He's really helpful for Carson Wentz and here the Eagles are in the same boat as they were last year and.

[Mike Wright]

He, you know, dynasty wise, he should be able to come back fine. He's actually had this injury already on his other leg and he came back.

[Jason Moore]

Talking about Brandon Brooks.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Austin Eckler]

Oh, that's like Alshon dynasty. No, I would not.

[Mike Wright]

Just talking about the Eagles and Carson Wentz and with Brandon Brooks's injury, he'll be able to come back, but it's not going to be in 2020.

[Jason Moore]

49Ers extended Kyle Shanahan. This is according to. They're following the obligatory made it to the super bowl rule where you have to do this immediately.

[Austin Eckler]

And it wasn't just an extension. It was a. He had three years left. Because if you remember, the 49ers went all in on Kyle Shanahan when they signed him. Yes, but so it's actually a stick, a new six year contract because the three years that he's on or that he had left, they have now been replaced with a pay raise. Kyle Shanahan offenses are great. They are great. Everywhere he has gone, he has had a great offense.

[Jason Moore]

Won't be the last time we're talking about a Kyle Shanahan offense on today's show. All right, you guys want to talk. Oh, one more bit of news, sort of. Saints running back coach Joel Thomas confirmed Alvin Camara played through knee, ankle and back injuries last season. I guess confirmed what our eyes showed us, what the production showed us. We've talked a lot about the Saints offense, how they went from this. You know, Camara, I think at 18 total touchdowns the year before last year, the rushing touchdowns dropped off the map for New Orleans. Maybe they didn't have confidence in Alvin Camara around the goal line.

[Austin Eckler]

Well, and we knew he had, he had the ankle sprain that cost him some games. But knowing that he was also dealing with a knee and a back injury, it's.

[Mike Wright]

Does this concern you at all for durability? Do you look at him and say, not really. He's okay.

[Austin Eckler]

I mean every running back gets hurt. So this, I think we could get this report from every running back coach about, about their running back. They're like, well, actually he's, he was playing through a, through a back and a knee injury all year.

[Jason Moore]

That's true. I mean, it's true. They get beat up. So any other news you guys want to talk about?

[Austin Eckler]

No, all right, let's go.

[Mike Wright]

Breakouts.

[Austin Eckler]

Almost gotcha.

[Jason Moore]

So the ultimate draft kit has a number of what we would call consensus breakouts from the three of us. This show is about some individual early breakout and bust picks. So we're sitting here in the middle of June. We have some of our favorites. I'm sure we will not agree on all of these names, that is for sure. Especially because, Jason, I know I've scanned this show document here and I know you've taken some shots at players that.

[Mike Wright]

Hey, this is my opportunity to say what I believe the truth is.

[Jason Moore]

That's true. So let's start with our early breakout picks and we'll go right into that Shanahan offense. I'm going to go with running back Raheem Mostert.

[Austin Eckler]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

If you look at the identity of this team, you talk about what Kyle Shanahan does best and has proven he can do in the NFL to run the football. The 49ers last year they had the second most rushing attempts in the National Football League with 498 attempts. That was behind Baltimore. Baltimore has an extra running back built into that quarterback and that's why they led the way. But from a running back perspective, nobody really does it quite like San Francisco. And you know, you had Matt, Matt Burrida in the mix last year. Raheem Mostert, did he break out at the back half of the year? I would say he had breakout games, still had a couple disappearing acts, and you still have Tevin Coleman to deal with. But Raheem Mostert is in a position here with Matt Breida, leaving 123 carries that he had last year. He's in Miami now. He has a great opportunity to have a much larger workload in one of the best rushing offenses in football. So I think he's not being valued that way in fantasy drafts right now. Interesting stat about Raheem Moster last year. Some people like the yards per carry metric. Some people hate the yards per carry metric. Player profiler goes a step further with what they call their true yards per carry, which basically gets rid of those monster runs and looks at a more averaged number. Raheem Moser was number one in football last year in that average number. Now, he still had 12 breakaway runs that put his yards per carry at 5.6, but when you kind of normalize it, it was still 5.3. Best running back in football by that metric. A lot of that has to do with the system. It's taken Raheem Mostert a long time to get to this point. But this was a 95th percentile speed guy. 4, 4, 2. This was a 96 percentile burst score. So Raheem Mostert, we saw it on the field last year. He was their best running back and I think he's going to have every opportunity to be that guy again this year. Tevin Coleman will have his games, but Tevin Coleman, if he showed me anything over the last five, six years, is that he disappears. He's the Amari Cooper of the running back position. Sometimes he shows up and you go, oh. I mean, in Atlanta you'd be like, oh, Tevin Coleman, that guy is going to be the, you know, a superstar on a franchise. And then, yeah, yeah, injuries, things like that.

[Mike Wright]

So do you worry about the Kyle Shanahan roulette wheel where I know that.

[Jason Moore]

That'S the worry that's been brought up on the show a lot. That roulette wheel lost one of, you know, its pieces in Matt Breida. So, yeah, I get concerned around the goal line on any of these teams that all of a sudden it's same thing that would happen with Alvin Camara. You'd be like, crap, Mark Ingram got that carry. This player's on the field for that down. But I think Mostert was given the opportunity, he earned that opportunity last year. And the team's moves in the offseason say they're very comfortable going forward with those two guys. If you have 498 carries, they're not coming from Garoppolo. So you distribute those across a couple of players. To me, that gives you a great opportunity to be a top tier guy. And they're going to score a lot of points. They're going to move the football. So for me, Raheem Mostert is one of those players that is being drafted behind where his true value could be.

[Austin Eckler]

No, I like it.

[Jason Moore]

What's interesting is players like Mostert. Compare it to the hype that you get on a player like Clyde Edwards Allaire. Like these are two great offenses in football, but Clyde Edwards Lair we see creeping forward and forward and forward in drafts. May have a slow start, doesn't have an established role. Mostert feels a little bit older, little bit of ambiguity. I don't know if people see the upside of Mostert is kind of why I'm surfacing him today.

[Mike Wright]

The breakout potential of him is great based on where he's going in a draft. You're not drafting a guy who has to break out to in order to capitalize on his value, which is what.

[Jason Moore]

Clyde Edwards Alaire would be. Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

But you're drafting a guy who still can break out even and he doesn't even need to return value on that spot.

[Jason Moore]

Weeks 12 through 19 last year, RB7 and second most rushing yards of all time in a playoff game. We saw it on display. So I think he will have every opportunity. There's the hype train stuff in the off season, adding 10 pounds so he can take more carries, all of that stuff. But I just like what I saw on the field. Part of it is the eye test and he passes that for me.

[Austin Eckler]

Yep. You want to go ahead, Jay?

[Mike Wright]

Sure, sure. I'll hop in here with a guy that, you know, I, I've, I've talked about a few times and not just on this show, but I believe in Marquis Hollywood Brown and I think he is a genuine breakout player this season. Not only do I think he can be, I believe he will be a breakout candidate. He's a great wide receiver. Go look at reception perception and see how he fares. He's not a one trick pony deep ball, you know, just because he's so fast and you know, he's got one of those true, you know, cards in his pocket. That's just like, I'm faster than you. I beat you. You look at next gen stat numbers and you see the amount of space that defenders give Marquis Brown in his rookie year. It's, it's, you know, near the top of the league. There's a reason for that. But then he's also a good route runner. He's got good hands. He's just a really solid wide receiver. Look at last year, comes into the league as the number one drafted NFL wide receiver even though he was injured because of that talent. And he's on a team that is, that has, you know, the last year's MVP for quarterback, unlike, you know, the common breakout candidate of Terry McLaurin. We all love Terry McLaurin, but he's got Dwayne Haskins throwing him the ball, whereas Marquis Brown has Lamar Jackson. And you could say, okay, well there's, there's touchdown regression coming for Lamar Jackson. That outlandish 9% of his passes went for a touchdown. Okay, that's not going to happen. Well, he also only threw the ball about 400 times. That is also likely to not repeat. I mean, that is so far beyond. That's lower than any other quarterback that played even 11 games. I mean he was almost the same as Drew Brees who missed a huge chunk of the season.

[Jason Moore]

Let me, let me ask you a Question on him. When he was with Kyler Murray in his junior year, he put up 75 for 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns in 12 games. What about. Yeah, in college. Yeah, what about that line? Do you think that line is feasible in the NFL? Is that a ceiling line for Marquis Hollywood Brown, 75 receptions?

[Mike Wright]

I think 16 games? Yeah. I mean I have him statted for 74 receptions.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

This year, you know, I've got him well over 100 targets because if you look at the target market share that I think he will actually command somewhere north of 20%. Last year it was 16%. I mean you're talking about John Brown. Last year it was like 23%. You know, it's like he's, he is going to be one of the two main targets there and I'm not worried about Miles Boykin and Willie Snead. So it's a smaller piece but he's going to get a large slice of it and he's extremely talented. Look at the first five weeks of last year. Then he got injured. He got that ankle injury in week five. Those first five weeks. He was on a 16 game target in his rookie year for 125 targets. I mean that's if he got 125 targets. He's an absolute breakout star. And when it comes to the touchdown opportunities, the real thing that makes a guy break out in fantasy football, they're there. He had seven touchdowns in limited time where he's averaging like 59% of snaps. That's going to go up this season. And you can get tap passes with him. You know you're around that goal line. Just give him a little in round tapsy. He can also get an 83 yard touchdown like he did last year. I mean this is a guy who I think has everything in his corner. They drafted him to be that guy. They want Lamar Jackson to grow as a passer as well. So I think passing volume goes up. He his snap percentage goes up. Him getting better in year two is there. There's no competition for targets outside of Mark Andrews. He's awesome. I am a genuine believer that he's going to break out this year.

[Jason Moore]

Last year at the trade deadline in fantasy leagues I didn't target anybody as much as I did Hollywood Brown. In leagues that I had keeper opportunities, he seemed like the kind of player that due to the injury, what you see on film is an elite player. Much like Tyree Kill. He forces the defense to play him a certain way which gives him that kind of space underneath. He won more on curl routes and out routes than he even did on nine routes because of what he makes the defense do. If I'm playing devil's advocate from Hollywood Brown which I think is important. Yeah, it's injury is a concern. He is not built like DEZ Bryant. He is a player that is built like desean Jackson. That is a who has struggled with injuries at times as well. A lot of these speedsters do and last year Hollywood Brown did. So that would be one risk factor. The other one is just what do they need from him. The recipe for success last year did not require Hollywood to do that. So will they continue? You know, I think Lamar loves throwing him the football. If you watch when he's active, it's Mark Andrews, it's Hollywood Brown as often as possible. So the breakout path is there. I think those would just be the things that jump out is yeah, the.

[Mike Wright]

Injury risk is legit. Injured in college injured. Obviously I just said week five is ankle injury. But I do think he is going to be, you know, when they really needed him they eased him back from that ankle injury and played him about 50% of snaps. And then come playoffs and you saw another crazy line, you know, 120 plus yards and double digit targets.

[Jason Moore]

Brooks, look up his current average draft position for me and if you don't have it, you got it. I want to know where he's going right now.

[Mike Wright]

He's not being drafted as a breakout then that's what I love. Just, just like Raheem Moser. He's not being drafted.

[Austin Eckler]

Wide receiver 29 in best ball.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, wide receiver 29. I'm happy to take him there because I think his ceiling is a wide receiver one.

[Jason Moore]

All right, before we get to Mike's percentage chance that you think Hollywood could be a wide receiver one this year.

[Mike Wright]

Percentage chance, I would say 20% as a wide receiver one.

[Jason Moore]

That's about where I'd have it.

[Austin Eckler]

Yeah, it's pretty good. Before we move into Mike didn't want.

[Jason Moore]

To give his percentage.

[Austin Eckler]

I would put it at 10, maybe 10%.

[Mike Wright]

But a top 20 wide receiver, I think that to me is 65%.

[Austin Eckler]

Cool. Before we move to my break, I pick want to thank today's sponsor Simply safe. Fellas, what is the number one sign of a bad home security system? Answer. A home security system that is so complicated you just never use it. And then that is exactly the type of security system that Simplisafe has spent a decade fighting against. It's designed to be easy. It protects your home 24, 7 and you can order this thing online with the click of a button. You open the box, place the sensors, plug it in. And now your home is protected by SimpliSafe. There's no technician, there's no salesperson that has to come and disrupt your house. There's no outrageous monthly fees or a two year contract. They got rid of that stuff. That's nonsense. According to SimpliSafe and us, who uses SimpliSafe to protect our studio, this marvelous studio that we're recording the show in. We don't worry about it. When we're gone, it's protected by Simplisafe and you can head to simplisafe.comfootballers and get free shipping and a 60 day money back guarantee that simplisafe.comfootballers to make sure, make sure they know that our show sent you.

[Mike Wright]

And we also want to thank hello Fresh. America's number one meal kit. And my dinner multiple times every week. Look, they offer fresh, high quality ingredients every week for a super flavorful experience. And really they're breaking you out of your rut. I have staples in my life, right, like, oh, we got to get the sounds. We're throwing in pizza. What is it tonight? Spaghetti. Whatever. I love when it's a hellofresh night because it's always something new, it's always something different. It's delicious. And you can save up to 28% by using HelloFresh versus just grocery store shopping. And you don't have to do the shopping. That's my favorite.

[Austin Eckler]

You're stopping the shopping.

[Mike Wright]

They give you pre portioned ingredients. There's less mealtime prep work. Pretty much all these meals are on the table in just about 30 minutes. It's a wonderful time for me and my wife when we make them. We love it. There's something for everyone. And you can go to hellofresh.com 60footballers and use the code 60footballers. That's the number. 60footballers to get 60% off your first three weeks, including free shipping on your first box. That's hellofresh.com 60footballerrs and code 60footballerrs to get $60 off your first three weeks, including Free Shipping and your first box. Additional restrictions apply. Visit hellofresh.com for more details.

[Jason Moore]

Curious of our listeners would have preferred to get only $55 off just for the sake of the show, but I guess 60 is more than 55.

[Mike Wright]

That is a mathematical fact.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Mike, you have a breakout candidate that will be very polarizing. Yes, for our audience it will be.

[Austin Eckler]

But we, we had a very impassioned listener of the show writing.

[Jason Moore]

I'm staring at his email right, right.

[Austin Eckler]

Into to the show to say how, how can we possibly think that Daniel Jones is going to be a breakup fantasy football player? He's a Giants fan and a lot.

[Jason Moore]

Of capital letters in this email. Mike.

[Austin Eckler]

Okay. And he brought it. He brought the fire. But I still believe in Daniel Jones as a fantasy breakout quarterback. And the reason I am going with that one to me, if, when I'm watching Daniel Jones play, yes, he made a lot of mistakes. He's a rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks make a lot of mistakes. Those fumbles, that's unforgivable. What he did in the fumble.

[Jason Moore]

Number one in the NFL in turnover worthy plays per game in a season where Jameis Winston did that.

[Austin Eckler]

Yes, because he fumbled the ball. However, he only threw 12 interceptions which as a rookie, that's not too bad. But here's what I want to highlight about Daniel Jones. The last 10 years, rookie quarterbacks that have played at least 10 games, they've started those 10 games and average 250 passing yards per game. Andrew Luck, Baker Mayfield, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Daniel Jones, that is it. He is in there with elite category. He put up the 10th best fantasy season for a rookie quarterback and he started 12 games. In 12 games he threw 24 touchdowns. That's the fourth most for a rookie quarterback. Of all time. Of all time. That put his pace at 32 touchdowns, which would have blown Baker Mayfield's rookie record out of the water. It would have been the only rookie quarterback to ever throw for 30 touchdowns. Now I get it, he didn't do that. But still the fourth most touchdowns in 12 games. That's very impressive. He joined Deshaun Watson as, as the second rookie quarterback ever to have three games with four plus passing touchdowns. That's a very impressive feat. And that's if you, if you're discounting the game, his first start where he had two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns. Like he put up monster games. He was inconsistent, yes, but he was a rookie and he runs the ball.

[Jason Moore]

I was going to say in 12 games, 279 rushing yards, two touchdowns.

[Austin Eckler]

Yes, he, he put up, he was on a pace of 365 rushing yards. That's not.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I get it.

[Austin Eckler]

That's not Lamar Jack's numbers, but it's helpful.

[Jason Moore]

No one is Lamar Jackson, old Alex.

[Austin Eckler]

Those are like Alex Smith numbers where you're averaging over 20 rushing yards a game. That eliminates one mistake right there. And we know he is working on his ball security. Then Daniel Jeremiah recently tweeted out something that caught my attention because it's something you kind of know inherently, but you didn't realize this. In each team's projected 11 personnel. So one running back, one tight end, three wide. Based on the 40 yard dash, the Giants have as a group the fastest ensemble of weapons. Even faster than the weapons in Kansas City. He is surrounded by speed. Like Daniel Jones is willing to throw the ball downfield, but he doesn't have to. He can just trust the players to run 5 yards in front of him and take it to the house. On top of everything, where the numbers are trending in a very positive direction. Their defense stinks. They are really, really bad. The game scripts are going to be in favor of Daniel Jones. Last year, the Giants 30th best, as we would call them. Their free agency additions. James Bradbury, the 75th ranked corner according to Pro Football Focus. Blake Martinez, linebacker, ranked 58th according to Pro Football Focus last year. Like these are not awe inspiring additions to the defensive side of the field. Daniel Jones is going to have to throw the ball a lot and he is surrounded by talent. I think Daniel Jones is a breakout quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

You worry about Jason Garrett.

[Austin Eckler]

I don't. I do not worry about this.

[Jason Moore]

Do you think that Daniel Jones had to do too much? In a way, it almost seems like he is training himself to be the next Jameis Winston, which for fantasy owners out there, by the way, don't hear what we're not saying. Mike, to my knowledge has not predicted the Giants to be super bowl contenders.

[Austin Eckler]

No, and I don't care.

[Jason Moore]

There's a differentiation between fantasy success and NFL success. Clearly that could not be better illustrated than Jameis Winston.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Who broke records and was dismissed.

[Mike Wright]

He was great in fantasy football and literally couldn't get another gig in the real.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, 5,000 yards can't start for another team. So Daniel Jones last year had four games where he was either in the number one or number two fantasy quarterback. The rushing yardage helps. My question to you. Mike was just going to be. Saquon struggled to stay healthy last year. Did Daniel Jones have to do too much? Saquon wasn't able to do as much. Did that inflate some of those rookie touchdown totals?

[Austin Eckler]

It's certainly possible. But I would counter that by saying this. Daniel Jones put up those 24 touchdowns that I talked about. Games that Daniel Jones played with his three starting wide receivers. That's four games.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I know Evan Ingram and yeah.

[Austin Eckler]

I'm not even counting anger I'm just saying games that Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton were all on the field together four times like this. I really, really believe that Daniel Jones will be a top 10 quarterback by the end of the year.

[Jason Moore]

Now he starts season, his schedule, Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco.

[Austin Eckler]

The schedule sucks. And that the opening schedule is. Is brutal for Daniel Jones.

[Jason Moore]

He's a dnd.

[Austin Eckler]

I don't think do not draft. Yeah, I don't think it's impossible that Daniel Jones comes out and is very surprising in these first few weeks. But even with my love and my projecting for Daniel Jones, he's not likely to be a player I'm targeting in the draft. He will be a player that I am targeting to pick up off the waiver wire like week three or week four.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that makes sense. And to speak to your question real quick, Andy, about with Saquon not there, did he have to do too much in those games that Saquon wasn't there? He actually was on a. It was only three games. It was a 16 game pace of 16 passing touchdowns. When Saquon came back in week seven on that's when he had a 16 game pace of 38 touchdowns. He was much, much better when Saquon was in there.

[Jason Moore]

All right, you guys want to talk about some early bus? Let's do it.

[Mike Wright]

Bus.

[Austin Eckler]

He's letting him have it.

[Jason Moore]

All right. So again, like I mentioned before in the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com tons of consensus bust picks, also breakout sleepers values. But these are our individual bust picks, early bust options. Jason, go ahead.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, we're kicking it off here with me.

[Austin Eckler]

No, no, please go ahead.

[Mike Wright]

I will happily.

[Jason Moore]

You have 10 seconds.

[Mike Wright]

I will happily go first. And this is where I knew there would be disagreement because you two both believe in Austin Eckler. I'm booing you.

[Austin Eckler]

Boo.

[Mike Wright]

As a fantasy option. As a great fantasy option. Especially you, Mike. Yes, you're in. You want Austin Eckler on your teams this year. And I believe that he is going to be a fantasy bust. When I looked up the best ball drafts that are happening post draft, I saw him as the 19th player taken off the board overall. Not 19th running back. 19th player. You're expecting big things I've seen talking.

[Jason Moore]

About great friend of the show, great.

[Mike Wright]

Friend of the show, Austin Eckler. I love Austin Eckler. I think he's a super, super cool guy.

[Jason Moore]

You express it in interesting ways, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Look, my, my stats are my own and they don't paint as rosy a picture. And what's ironic is I believe that Austin Eckler's fantasy relevance this year will come based fully upon his rushing attempts. That's where he's going to be good. If you guys are right, if he's up there at 200 plus carries because he ends up being the clear leader of this what I project to be a three way timeshare, then I will be wrong and you will be right. But my issue is that he is a receiving back. His fantasy production last year came so heavily based on the awesome receiving work. They will line him out wide, they'll put him in the slot, they use him out of the backfield. He had over 100 targets last year. That is fantasy gold. But oh wait, that doesn't mean that happens this year. Now there's been a lot of talk about when people have 100 plus targets at running back that the next following year. You know, I've heard this about Leonard Fournette, that the following year doesn't always work out well. Well, I wanted to see because some of those numbers are misleading. You have David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Danny Woodhead, Lamont Jordan and Alvin camaro.

[Jason Moore]

These are 100 plus target running backs.

[Mike Wright]

Those five are 100 plus target running backs who the following year played, you know, were injured. And it just ruins those numbers and it makes it look so devastating. So I did the math myself. I took every, since the year 2000, every running back who's had 100 plus targets. And I wanted to see what actually happens when they play the next year. How do they fare in general. So I took everybody with, you know, fewer than 11 games out. I want to make sure they're actually playing. And I wanted to see what was the. What happens. There's 25 running backs since 2000 that have plus 100 receptions. I'm not counting this last year because we don't know the following year receptions or targets. Targets, sorry. And the average the following year is a loss of 25 targets. 14 times. They lost more than 20. 14 of 25 of those players lost more than 20 targets. 11 of those 25 players lost more than 40 targets the following season. And now we have Austin Eckler who we know has a completely different situation. He doesn't have check down Philip Rivers at quarterback. He's got a scrambling Tyrod Taylor. I think it is very within the realm of possibility that Austin Eckler loses 40 targets. I have him losing 30 targets. And if that happens and he's not a super, you know, if he's not a 200 carry running back, then he's not going to return at the value he's being drafted at right now. That's my fear. I see the avenue. I don't think he's a guaranteed bus. I'm not saying he sucks. I think he's a great running back. But the probability that he could not return on where he's being drafted I think is way too high. So I've got him in on my draft sheets as a guy that I'm going to be avoiding because I think that he could bust for fantasy value.

[Jason Moore]

You want to take this or want me to take this?

[Austin Eckler]

Mike, you can start.

[Jason Moore]

My only counterpoint to you is that look, he's not being drafted as the RB6. That's what he finished as last year with those target totals with the lower rushing attempts with Melvin Gordon in the backfield. So to me it is an argument about who is integral to the offense. Great defense. I think we all agree Los Angeles has a great defense. Yes, Echler is integral to the offense. I don't know how much Taylor and how much Herbert we're going to get, but I'm not drafting him to be the RB6 and that's what he finished as. I have him ranked as my RB11. And so if the cost is RB6, I would be with you. He's not. I don't think he delivers on. Last year I have him losing, I think about 20 targets.

[Austin Eckler]

Yep, as do I.

[Jason Moore]

And I don't have them with over 200 carries. I have them with 165 instead of 132.

[Mike Wright]

So I've got them with 166. You and I see him.

[Jason Moore]

There you go, three rushing touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

But. But I have him with 77 receiving targets and 60 receptions. That's the big difference. And yeah, so obviously that is, that's the difference if you've got him at running back 11. The difference there is that and based on my research on both history and then the projection forward of the quarterback change, if he's down in the 70 targets, you're not going to be happy.

[Austin Eckler]

Now how many of those guys, in your research, when you looked at the guys who had the 100 plus targets, went 100 plus targets straight into the bag of money to be the starting running back.

[Mike Wright]

I do not have contract details attached here. Mike, he just got the bag man.

[Austin Eckler]

And he was signed as an offensive weapon. And I think you guys are. I think you're being very low, giving him 160something attempts when last year he had 132. And once Melvin Gordon came back, he's averaging what, like six or seven attempts? He's not getting six or seven attempts per game. He'll be up in the, in the 10 to 15 range every single game. In my opinion, like 10 would be 160.

[Mike Wright]

So we've got him at 166.

[Austin Eckler]

I'm saying he, he will be there, like at minimum. At minimum he'll be hitting 10 and then he'll have the games where he's up with 15 or more, 15 or more carries. I just, I believe in the talent.

[Jason Moore]

And where do you have him, though? You probably don't have him much higher than I do.

[Austin Eckler]

I have him at running back seven right now.

[Jason Moore]

You have a much higher than I do.

[Austin Eckler]

I have him and I'm with you guys. I have him losing 30 targets.

[Jason Moore]

This is his. Like you said, his stats are his own.

[Austin Eckler]

They are.

[Jason Moore]

This is an early bus show. He is on as potentially incorrect.

[Mike Wright]

And you talk about, you know, the contract situations of these running backs where, you know, I don't have those details, but these are great running backs. This is not a list of, like, These guys got 100 targets for a reason. You know, it's Ladanian Tomlinson and Matt Forte, Chris McCaffrey, Reggie.

[Jason Moore]

Shout out to Lamont Jordan, though. I missed.

[Mike Wright]

Well, no, I took Lamont Jordan out. He is not in this. I'm saying I took out the people.

[Jason Moore]

That were the following years. No, I wasn't giving him grief. I love Lamont Jordan.

[Mike Wright]

It's been a minute since I've heard that name.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. All right. I'm going to throw a name out there that I think is a boring early bus pick, but one that's worth surfacing based on where he's being drafted, and that's Tyler Boyd. Tyler Boyd is a good, reliable NFL wide receiver. But over the past couple of years, due to what's transpired in that offense, you had Andy Dalton, you had no A.J. green. You don't have any guarantee of A.J. green this year, but he is returning and he is at full health today. You also drafted T. Higgins and you have a rookie quarterback in Cincinnati. And we looked at the average draft position of Tyler Boyd. Right now it was something like wide receiver 32. I have him in the 40s this year. I just don't know what his real ceiling is going to be in a rookie led offense with A.J. green returning, with T. Higgins involved, with Joe Mixon out of the backfield. I have my concerns. He's been a very strong Reliable wide receiver. He's been over a thousand yards the past two years. That is not, you know, that's. That's a nice benchmark to say a thousand yards. It's not really special in the NFL to get over a thousand yards at the receiving position. I just don't think that Tyler Boyd is going to represent for your fantasy team what he has represented over the past couple of years. Last year, he was the wide receiver 23 in 16 games without AJ Green. I know we've had the discussions on the show before about whether Green helps or hurts him, but I like T. Higgins personally and we've talked about kind of the ceiling, the limit of a rookie quarterback situation there. I think Tyler Boyd is just kind of meh to me this year. Like, I don't think he's going to be on my teams because I don't think the upside is there with the rookie quarterback and A.J.

[Austin Eckler]

Green in the. What's wild about his ADP, I don't think is too. It's not crazy wide receiver 32, but it's the fact of on average in best ball drafts according to fantasy pros, best ball ADP going behind him, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller, Deontay Johnson, Brandon Cooks. Like, guys who.

[Jason Moore]

All four of those I'd have over Tyler.

[Austin Eckler]

Guys who have ceilings. All four of those guys have a ceiling, especially compared to Tyler Boyd. So I think it's. It's interesting to me that people are taking that safe pick.

[Jason Moore]

Tyler floor. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's not bad.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what he seems.

[Mike Wright]

Tyler floor. He's got a good floor. He has. That's the thing. He's got a good noor.

[Austin Eckler]

I will not his floor.

[Jason Moore]

His floor is like 800 yards receiving.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's pretty good.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. You won't stand for it. You feel like that is insulting.

[Mike Wright]

800 to 886 range.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. He'll be between 830 and 850 yards.

[Austin Eckler]

Oh, my goodness.

[Mike Wright]

And also, I just want to point out, while you talked about AJ Green coming back and, you know, you brought up T. Higgins. Can't forget about what?

[Austin Eckler]

Rodney Anderson.

[Mike Wright]

No. Oh, I missed a chance to talk about Rodney. No, I was going to bring up John Ross.

[Austin Eckler]

Absolutely.

[Mike Wright]

He's also there.

[Jason Moore]

We need a bet, and I don't know what the bet is yet, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Whether Rodney Anderson makes the roster.

[Jason Moore]

Not that bet. That bet. I. I guess I lost a live bet on Tuesday, so I'm not going to make any quick ones. But I just want a situation where when you're wrong about A.J. green. You have to wear his jersey for some period of time. That is very important to me.

[Mike Wright]

I'm in that. If AJ Green is a top 15 wide receiver this year, I'll wear his jersey for a week.

[Jason Moore]

That's fine. That's a one way bet. That works for me.

[Mike Wright]

Great. Because I love AJ Green. I hope he is. I just don't believe it at all. And I'm never going to draft him.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Mike, it's time for you to maybe pay back the Eckler Hayes. Yes, a little bit.

[Austin Eckler]

From Jason's nonsense to my sensical data.

[Jason Moore]

To my perfect analysis.

[Austin Eckler]

Stefan Diggs. Love the player. Do not like the destination. Do not like the destination at all. For fantasy purposes, I think Stefan Diggs is going to be a fantasy bust. Here's the thing. Last year Diggs was the guy, the guy for Minnesota, Adam Thielen played full snaps in basically seven games. Do you guys recall on Minnesota who had the second most targets on the team?

[Jason Moore]

Man. Second most targets on the, on the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota Vikings last year I would guess Adam Thielen.

[Austin Eckler]

No, it was Dalvin Cook with 63.

[Jason Moore]

That makes sense.

[Austin Eckler]

63 targets. That's what Stefan Diggs was competing with for target share. He ended up as the wide receiver 21 overall. He was a top 24 receiver in six of 15 games. He did not help your team. And now he goes from Kirk Cousins to Josh Allen. It's two teams that have very similar offensive philosophies. Not very high volume. Yeah, Stefan Diggs was used as a deep ball player this last year. But the difference is Kirk Cousins, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league to Josh Allen. And they were, they were both very similar on their deep attempts. Josh Allen threw a deep ball on 14.6% of his attempts. Kirk Cousins 13.7.

[Jason Moore]

I wish you didn't have that stat. That's a good stat because it's not just about efficiency on the D ball, it's how often he does it. My counterpoint would have been, well, Josh Allen's come out and said he's never going to check it down. He's always going to chuck the ball. But you just said that. So did Kirk Cousins.

[Austin Eckler]

Very, very, very similar. But here is what is not similar.

[Jason Moore]

What?

[Austin Eckler]

Yes, their adjusted completion. You can really dance. Their adjusted completion percentage. So Josh Allen's adjusted completion percentage. So that's factoring in things like drops. It was a stunning 28.4%. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins an adjusted completion percent.

[Jason Moore]

Of 47.8 because Kirk Cousins is great.

[Austin Eckler]

He is a very good passer. Last year Stefan Diggs had 32 deep targets and 20 of them were deemed catchable. John Brown had 28 deep targets last year, the number one wide receiver, the go to deep threat for the Buffalo Bills. 11 were deemed catchable. So 32 to 20, 28 down to 11. Josh Allen, he's got the cannon. Maybe the accuracy finally shows up. I'm not betting it is. And on top of that, what I was saying of Stefan Diggs was the guy for this team last year. John Brown's not going away. John Brown was 24% of the targets last year and they're both excellent route runners like you can if. If that's where you want to go and attack this situation of saying, well Stefan Diggs is an elite route runner. You know, who also is an elite route run according to reception perception. John Brown. Matt Harmon's write up of Stefan Diggs basically says, well now Buffalo has two number one wide receivers because that's how good John Brown is at running routes. He gets open having to deal with other place and then I even. And Cole Beasley is not going away either. He was over 20% of the targets. So I'm just not in on Stefan.

[Jason Moore]

Where do you have him? Because when you say not in, he's being drafted about wide receiver 25 right now. Fantasy finishes for digs since 2015, 46, 38, 2011 and 21.

[Austin Eckler]

I have Stefan Diggs right now ranked at 35.

[Mike Wright]

I have him at 24. So right about where he's drafting, not as an elite option, but I would counter with this. Last year John Brown was the wide receiver 20.

[Austin Eckler]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

So if you now you can make the argument of well, John Brown's still there and now there's target. I just did great, but I'm. But you, you started by making the argument that Josh Allen can't support. He's just not as good as Kirk Cousins. Well, he had a wide receiver 20 and John Brown last season. Diggs is better than John Brown. And I just want to point out that when you pay the amount of money and you try to change your team, that what you've done with Diggs, those other players who had great stretches the year prior, they can easily become irrelevant. I know it's weird and difficult to think about Robert Foster the year prior, but he was the wide receiver 20 from weeks 10 on with John Josh Allen it was like oh, but he's great. And then it was just like poof. You're done. You don't matter to me. We got John Brown and we got Cole Beasley.

[Austin Eckler]

He was an undrafted free agent.

[Jason Moore]

That is correct, Foster, but no, I think that can happen. Look, you, we all call a spade a spade. We all grimaced when Diggs was traded to Buffalo.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's not the best landing just.

[Jason Moore]

The way you did last year when Antonio Brown was a Buffalo bill for.

[Austin Eckler]

36 for a day.

[Jason Moore]

Because you knew that the identity of this team, the defense, the big play, I mean, Stefan Diggs is going to have some monster game.

[Austin Eckler]

Yes, he will.

[Jason Moore]

In Buffalo. And he's going to help Josh Allen.

[Mike Wright]

If he's being drafted as the wide receiver 25.

[Jason Moore]

That's fine.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like that's. That's fine. But if you're busting on that, you got to suck.

[Jason Moore]

Well, let me, let me ask you a couple of questions here, Mike. Then that means you have players like Sutton, probably Devonte Parker.

[Austin Eckler]

I have Parker ranked higher, yes.

[Jason Moore]

What about a guy like Marvin Jones or Tyler Lockett?

[Austin Eckler]

Let me pull up the rank. Well, Tyler Lockett, I would for sure take over Stefan Diggs. So yeah, I have Lockett at 25 and Marvin Jones right now at 28. Marvin Jones is. Would be similar, like a similar tier of how I view the player. Where Jones is going to have games where he goes off and games where he just disappears. That's that another part of the problem why I was highlighting that Stefan Diggs was actually only good for your fantasy team last year. About six times out of the whole season it's been so in those games he was great. But now will he actually have that many of those explosive games when it, when it could easily go over to being John Brown? And when you're talking about Robert Foster as the comparison, they gave John Brown a good amount of money like he's.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. And that made the. The other options are relevant.

[Austin Eckler]

But I'm saying. So Stefan Diggs doesn't come in and just replace an undrafted free agent. Stefan Diggs is coming into pair with a player who has the fourth highest cap hit on the Buffalo Bills this year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Diggs helps the quarterback. I mean, yes, it helps Josh Allen tremendously. And Diggs will have his games. He has never been a pillar of consistency. It'd be interesting to see if he was able to do that with the inaccuracies and troubles of Josh Allen. Allen will have his games. Diggs will have his games. I'm comfortable with his adp.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm comfortable with his adp. I think the strongest issue here is the consistency because that's where it's like, if you're not a high volume team and they're not they want to be a run first, defensive minded team, then you are going to have volatility. You're not going to have consistency for Diggs. And so if you, if you want to call them a bust for that reason, I mean, you know, Amari Cooper last year you could say was a bust for your team because even though he finished great, he didn't help you win games at the end of the season.

[Jason Moore]

It's really shocking. Mike didn't just go with Amari Cooper, right?

[Mike Wright]

I mean, that's just honorary, right? Like that's like our honorary doctorate. That should be in the mail soon. Someone that's listening, please. We're all asking for an honorary doctorate from someone.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we are. We would like one.

[Mike Wright]

I want one pretty bad. But his honorary bus certificate is also floating out in the ether at all times.

[Jason Moore]

It feels like Mike has an honorary Cooper bus at all times. I've got an honorary juju bust at all times. Who's Jason's honorary permanent?

[Austin Eckler]

Apparently Austin Eckler. Big Dumb Face.

[Mike Wright]

I was not anti Eckler last year. This is a brand new thing.

[Jason Moore]

I like ending the show on Big Dumbface. That's perfect. Thank you for tuning in, supporting the show. Check out the ultimate draft kit at Ultimate Draft this weekend. Take care.

[Austin Eckler]

Goodbye.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the Ffballers foot Glan.

[Austin Eckler]

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