Fantasy Footballers Podcast – Episode Summary: "Early Breakouts & Busts" (June 18, 2020)
In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into early fantasy football predictions for the upcoming season. They discuss potential breakout players, possible busts, recent NFL news, and provide actionable advice for fantasy managers. Below is a detailed summary of the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.
1. Buy or Sell Segment: Baker Mayfield
Discussion Overview: The hosts analyze the fantasy prospects of Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, debating whether he should be a “buy” or “sell” in fantasy drafts based on his performance and team changes.
Key Points:
- 2020 Performance: Mayfield set a rookie record with 27 touchdowns in 13 starts, following 22 touchdowns in 16 starts the previous year.
- System Improvements: The Browns have upgraded their offensive line, which could enhance Mayfield's efficiency and touchdown potential.
- Supporting Cast: With receivers like David Njoku, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, and Kareem Hunt, Mayfield has a strong set of targets.
- Efficiency Concerns: While Mayfield has the potential for high touchdown numbers, interceptions remain a concern. Moore notes, “He might throw 30 interceptions” ([03:46]).
- Projections:
- Jason Moore: Projects Mayfield for 26 touchdowns, choosing to sell his value.
- Mike Wright: Buys Mayfield, projecting up to 30 touchdowns but accounts for potential interceptions ([05:46]).
- Andy Holloway: Projects Mayfield for 20 touchdowns, expressing uncertainty about his consistency ([05:46]).
Notable Quotes:
- Mike Wright ([03:29]): “Give the man a chance.”
- Jason Moore ([06:23]): “20 is very low.”
Conclusion: The hosts are divided on Mayfield's fantasy value. While Moore opts to sell based on his projections, Wright remains optimistic, anticipating a high touchdown count despite interception risks.
2. NFL News and Updates
a. Philadelphia Eagles Injuries
Discussion Overview: The hosts review significant injuries affecting the Philadelphia Eagles, impacting both their offensive line and wide receiver corps.
Key Points:
- Alshon Jeffery: Continues to deal with a Lisfrank injury without a clear return timeline, reducing his reliability and impact on the offense.
- Brandon Brooks: Star right guard Brandon Brooks suffered a torn left Achilles tendon, sidelining him for the entire 2020 season. This poses a severe setback for the Eagles' offensive line ([09:14]).
- Impact on Carson Wentz: With offensive line issues and Jeffery's absence, quarterback Carson Wentz's fantasy value is questioned. His touchdown rates drop significantly without key offensive weapons.
Notable Quotes:
- Jason Moore ([10:34]): “This does not summarize the... gravity.”
- Austin Eckler ([10:34]): “Brandon Brooks's injury is more impactful than the Alshon Jeffery injury.”
Conclusion: The Eagles face considerable challenges with their offensive line injuries, potentially hindering their fantasy prospects and overall team performance for the season.
b. Kyle Shanahan's Contract Extension with the 49ers
Discussion Overview: The 49ers extended head coach Kyle Shanahan with a new six-year contract, underscoring their commitment to his offensive philosophy.
Key Points:
- Offensive Success: Shanahan is renowned for crafting potent offenses, making the 49ers a favorite for strong fantasy performances.
- Future Expectations: The hosts anticipate continued offensive excellence under Shanahan, benefiting players like running back Raheem Mostert ([11:52]).
Notable Quotes:
- Jason Moore ([12:20]): “Won't be the last time we're talking about a Kyle Shanahan offense on today's show.”
Conclusion: Shanahan’s extended tenure with the 49ers bodes well for their offense, providing stability and confidence in the team’s fantasy prospects.
c. Saints Running Back Coach on Alvin Kamara
Discussion Overview: Joel Thomas, the Saints' running back coach, revealed that Alvin Kamara played through multiple injuries last season, potentially impacting his performance and durability.
Key Points:
- Alvin Kamara's Health: Kamara dealt with knee, ankle, and back injuries during the previous season, raising concerns about his injury susceptibility.
- Fantasy Implications: While Kamara remains a top fantasy asset, questions about his long-term durability persist ([12:59]).
Notable Quotes:
- Austin Eckler ([13:06]): “Every running back gets hurt.”
Conclusion: Despite Kamara's injury history, his elite talent keeps him a valuable fantasy asset, though managers should monitor his health closely throughout the season.
3. Breakout Candidates
a. Raheem Mostert (49ers, Running Back)
Discussion Overview: Jason Moore highlights Raheem Mostert as a potential breakout candidate, forecasting increased workload and continued high performance in the Shanahan-led offense.
Key Points:
- Last Season's Performance: Mostert had standout games in the latter half of the season, showcasing his speed and efficiency with a high true yards per carry metric.
- 2020 Projections: With Mostert now in Miami, he is expected to receive a larger share of carries (projected 123+ carries), making him undervalued in fantasy drafts.
- Skill Set: His 4.2 speed and 96 percentile burst score position him as a top-tier running back with ample scoring opportunities ([14:32]).
Notable Quotes:
- Jason Moore ([16:00]): “Raheem Mostert is in a position here with Matt Breida, leaving 123 carries that he had last year.”
Conclusion: Mostert's enhanced role and proven speed make him a prime candidate for fantasy breakout, offering substantial value for managers who draft him early.
b. Hollywood Brown (Wide Receiver, Ravens)
Discussion Overview: Mike Wright champions Hollywood Brown as a breakout wide receiver, citing his speed, route-running abilities, and increased target potential with Lamar Jackson.
Key Points:
- Skill Set: Brown is not solely a deep threat; he excels in route running and has reliable hands, making him versatile in Jackson’s offense.
- Projected Targets: Wright forecasts over 100 targets and up to 100 receptions, placing Brown in contention for a wide receiver one spot ([21:22]).
- Youth and Opportunity: As a young receiver on a dynamic team, Brown is poised to capitalize on increased passing volumes and Lamar Jackson’s development as a passer.
Notable Quotes:
- Mike Wright ([18:00]): “Hollywood Brown is going to have every opportunity to be that guy again this year.”
Conclusion: Hollywood Brown's combination of speed, hands, and potential target share positions him as a high-upside breakout candidate, especially if Lamar Jackson continues to improve.
c. Daniel Jones (Giants, Quarterback)
Discussion Overview: Andy Holloway advocates for Daniel Jones as a breakout quarterback, highlighting his rookie achievements and the Giants' offensive weapons.
Key Points:
- Rookie Performance: Jones threw 24 touchdowns in 12 games, ranking fourth all-time for rookie QB touchdowns on pace for 32.
- Supporting Cast: Surrounded by speedy receivers like Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton, Jones benefits from a fast-paced offense.
- Defensive Weaknesses: The Giants' subpar defense may lead to favorable game scripts, allowing Jones ample scoring opportunities ([28:22]).
- Injury Considerations: While Jones fumbled more than ideal, Holloway emphasizes his potential to improve ball security ([28:53]).
Notable Quotes:
- Andy Holloway ([28:12]): “I really, really believe that Daniel Jones will be a top 10 quarterback by the end of the year.”
Conclusion: Daniel Jones's promising rookie performance, combined with an improving offensive setup, makes him a potential fantasy breakout quarterback, though concerns about consistency and turnover management remain.
4. Early Busts
a. Austin Eckler (Running Back, Ducks)
Discussion Overview: Mike Wright identifies Austin Eckler as a potential early bust, questioning his receiving role and fear of target regression based on historical trends.
Key Points:
- Last Season's Usage: Eckler's fantasy value was heavily reliant on his receiving, with over 100 targets. Wright fears a drop in target volume this season.
- Historical Analysis: Wright references historical data showing that running backs with 100+ targets often see significant target reductions the following year.
- 2020 Projections:
- Wright projects Eckler for 166 rush attempts but fears his receiving targets could fall to 60-77, undermining his overall fantasy value ([35:26]).
- Moore and Holloway express caution, aligning with Wright's concerns about target regression.
Notable Quotes:
- Mike Wright ([35:35]): “I think he could bust for fantasy value.”
- Jason Moore ([40:02]): “I don't think he delivers on last year I have him losing, I think about 20 targets.”
Conclusion: Eckler’s reliance on a high receiving target volume makes him a risky pick, as historical trends suggest a significant drop in targets could lead to underperformance in fantasy leagues.
b. Tyler Boyd (Wide Receiver, Bengals)
Discussion Overview: Jason Moore raises concerns about Tyler Boyd's upside in a rookie-led Bengals offense, especially with established receivers like A.J. Green and T. Higgins.
Key Points:
- Team Dynamics: With the return of A.J. Green and the presence of T. Higgins and John Ross, Boyd's target share may be limited.
- Performance Plateau: Despite reliable performances, Moore questions whether Boyd can surpass his previous 1,000-yard seasons in a more crowded receiving corps ([35:20]).
- Fantasy Footing: Boyd’s average floor of around 800-850 receiving yards is seen as unimpressive for his draft position, leading to doubts about his breakout potential.
Notable Quotes:
- Jason Moore ([43:29]): “Tyler Boyd is just kind of meh to me this year.”
Conclusion: Given the competitive receiving environment in Cincinnati, Boyd may struggle to replicate his prior success, making him a potential early bust for fantasy managers.
c. Stefan Diggs (Wide Receiver, Bills)
Discussion Overview: Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about Stefan Diggs’ fantasy value after his trade to the Buffalo Bills, citing potential target dilution and quarterback uncertainties.
Key Points:
- New Team Dynamics: Diggs joins Josh Allen, whose inconsistency as a passer could limit Diggs’ fantasy potential despite his talent.
- Target Competition: With John Brown and Cole Beasley also in the Bills’ receiving corps, Diggs may face stiff competition for targets.
- Performance Variability: Last season, Diggs had periods of high performance but lacked consistency, which could continue in Buffalo ([46:11]).
Notable Quotes:
- Andy Holloway ([46:04]): “Stefan Diggs is going to have some monster game. And he's going to help Josh Allen.”
Conclusion: Stefan Diggs’ move to the Bills introduces uncertainties regarding quarterback performance and target distribution, potentially making him a disappointing fantasy option if he fails to maintain high target volumes.
5. Conclusion and Final Thoughts
The hosts wrap up the episode by emphasizing the importance of early season evaluations and remaining adaptable in fantasy drafts. They encourage listeners to utilize resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit and engage with the Fantasy Footballers community for ongoing advice and updates.
Notable Quotes:
- Jason Moore ([54:09]): “Take care.”
- Mike Wright ([54:11]): “Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast.”
Final Takeaway: Early breakouts and busts can significantly influence fantasy football success. Managers should consider player roles, team dynamics, and historical performance trends when making draft decisions to optimize their rosters for the upcoming season.
Additional Resources:
- Website: TheFantasyFootballers.com
- Twitter: @FFFootballers
- Ultimate Draft Kit: Available through the podcast’s website for in-depth draft preparation.