Early Breakouts & Busts - LIVE in Chicago

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast: Early Breakouts & Busts - LIVE in Chicago

Release Date: June 25, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

---

1. Introduction and Live Show in Chicago ([00:00] - [03:10])

The episode kicks off with the Fantasy Footballers trio—Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright—welcoming listeners to their first live show of the 2019 tour from Chicago's Pristine Auction.com Studios. Mike humorously remarks on the vibrant atmosphere, noting, “[00:39] Mike Wright: Not bad, not bad.” The hosts engage in playful banter about Chicago’s sports scene and local culture, setting an energetic and entertaining tone for the episode.

---

2. Growing Up: Player Comparisons ([03:10] - [06:26])

Andy introduces a segment where each host selects a player under 25 and discusses their potential growth and career trajectory. Jason humorously compares himself to "Detlef Shrimp" before selecting David Montgomery, asserting, “[05:09] Jason Moore: I believe he will grow up to be Frank Gore.” Mike shares his childhood aspirations, initially wanting to be a dinosaur, then an astronaut, and ultimately embracing his role on the podcast. This segment blends personal anecdotes with insightful player analysis, adding depth to the discussion.

---

3. News Update: Matthew Stafford's Injuries and Fantasy Impact ([13:28] - [16:00])

The hosts delve into recent news about Matthew Stafford, revealing that he played through broken bones in his back during the previous season. Andy expresses frustration, “[13:52] Andy Holloway: Matthew Stafford... playing through broken bones in his back all of last season.” They analyze how Stafford's early-season performance was promising, with an average of 273 passing yards and two touchdowns per game in the first seven weeks ([15:06] Mike Wright), but his performance declined sharply due to injuries and changes within the team. Jason emphasizes Stafford's historical consistency by stating, “[16:00] Jason Moore: Matthew Stafford has been a quarterback one... in the top 12 of the last eight years.”

---

4. Main Topic: Early Breakouts & Busts ([20:21] - [56:27])

a. Breakouts: Dante Pettis and Kyler Murray ([22:23] - [37:14])

Jason advocates for Dante Pettis as a breakout candidate, highlighting his college performance with 163 receptions, over 2,200 yards, and 24 touchdowns. He notes Pettis's versatility and potential under Kyle Shanahan’s offense: “[25:04] Jason Moore: He is very well rounded. I believe he will be... a high end RB2 for a long time.”

Mike champions Kyler Murray as his breakout quarterback, citing his exceptional rushing ability and passing accuracy. He states, “[29:55] Mike Wright: This year's breakout for me... Kyler Murray will be a breakout at the quarterback position.” The hosts discuss Murray's dual-threat capabilities and his fit within the Arizona Cardinals' revamped offense, comparing his potential to that of elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes.

b. Busts: Sony Michel, Amari Cooper, and Darius Geist ([37:18] - [56:27])

Andy selects Mike Williams as a potential bust, questioning his target consistency despite impressive touchdown numbers last season. He remarks, “[38:16] Mike Wright: 10 receiving touchdowns for Mike Williams... opportunities with a great quarterback.”

Jason points out the pitfalls of drafting Sony Michel, citing his dependency on touchdown volume without significant receiving involvement: “[44:20] Jason Moore: Sony Michel will be a bust... if he's not catching the ball and he's not up in the double digit touchdowns, then it's not happening.”

Mike criticizes Amari Cooper for his inconsistent performance, stating, “[55:36] Mike Wright: He is a great wide receiver. But somehow he just manages to disappear in over half of his games.” Additionally, Darius Geist is highlighted as a bust due to his injury history and limited role within a crowded backfield: “[56:20] Andy Holloway: Variables are stacked against him. You have injury… it’s just not going to be worth drafting him.”

---

5. Live Mailbag: Listener Questions ([62:55] - [78:47])

Listeners engage with the hosts through live questions, primarily focusing on auction drafts and dynasty league strategies.

• Auction Draft Tips: Tyler asks about common pitfalls in auction drafts. Mike advises against getting caught in bidding wars over mid-tier players, emphasizing sticking to a strategic tier-based approach: “[64:08] Mike Wright: Avoid overpaying due to room excitement.”

• Dynasty League Q&A: Daniel inquires about drafting Tyreek Hill in dynasty leagues. The hosts discuss the balance between his high potential and associated risks, particularly his contract year status and the unpredictability of his performance.

• Quarterback Settings: Taylor seeks advice on quarterback scoring systems in dynasty leagues. Jason and Mike advocate for balanced scoring that rewards both passing and rushing performance without overvaluing one aspect.

• Deciphering Coach Speak: Rocky asks how to interpret coaches’ comments about players. The hosts recommend focusing on comments from positional coaches rather than head coaches and being wary of overly positive headlines that may not reflect true performance or role integration.

---

6. Conclusion and Giveaway ([79:04] - [80:37])

The episode wraps up with a giveaway of a signed Mitchell Trubisky helmet to a listener named Christopher. The hosts express their gratitude towards sponsors Pristine Auction and St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, encouraging listeners to support these partners. They also promote their upcoming tour stops in New York, San Francisco, Louisiana, and Phoenix, inviting listeners to join their live shows.

Mike humorously concludes with, “[80:22] Mike Wright: Foot Classic. And if you're listening at home, guess what? We love you too. We'll see everybody next time. Goodbye,” leaving listeners with a sense of community and anticipation for future content.

---

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright ([00:39]): "Not bad, not bad."
• Jason Moore ([05:17]): "He's very well rounded. I believe he will be Frank Gore."
• Andy Holloway ([13:52]): "Matthew Stafford... playing through broken bones in his back all of last season."
• Mike Wright ([15:06]): "Through the first seven weeks, he was averaging 273 passing yards, two touchdowns per game."
• Jason Moore ([16:00]): "Matthew Stafford has been a quarterback one... in the top 12 of the last eight years."
• Mike Wright ([29:55]): "Kyler Murray will be a breakout at the quarterback position."
• Jason Moore ([37:18]): "Sony Michel will be a bust... if he's not catching the ball and he's not up in the double digit touchdowns, then it's not happening."
• Andy Holloway ([38:16]): "10 receiving touchdowns for Mike Williams... opportunities with a great quarterback."
• Mike Wright ([55:36]): "Amari Cooper is a great wide receiver. But he just manages to disappear in over half of his games."

---

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the dynamic discussions, insightful analyses, and engaging interactions between the Fantasy Footballers hosts during their live Chicago show. Whether you're a seasoned fantasy player or new to the game, this episode offers valuable perspectives on identifying breakout talents, avoiding potential busts, and navigating various league formats effectively.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

Foreign.

[Jason Moore]

To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, coming to you from Pristine Auction.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Of Chicago. Welcome into the first live show of the 2019 tour.

[Mike Wright]

Not bad, not bad.

[Andy Holloway]

I can see the Tony Kuko jersey right now. This place is jumping. We've got a great podcast.

[Mike Wright]

That man did 30 curls right before entering the building. And it's looking good, sir. Looking good.

[Jason Moore]

Sun's out. Guns out, sir.

[Andy Holloway]

Those are white like yours, Jay. Those are white like ours. Welcome into the show. Great one. We got breakouts and busts today. Got some news, Got an interesting quick question. Mike has been hyped all day long.

[Mike Wright]

I'm. I'm rubbing my hands like a. Like I got an evil. You're ready.

[Andy Holloway]

You're. You're ready now. Jason, you've been to Chicago a couple times.

[Jason Moore]

I have. I love Chicago. Great improv scene here. Great people. The foot is out.

[Andy Holloway]

The panda bear is out.

[Jason Moore]

The panda bear is always here, baby.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, if you think he's out, just wait.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, if you've been a few times, I know you love the food here.

[Jason Moore]

Of course I love the food here.

[Andy Holloway]

Someone just yelled pizza. I like pizza.

[Jason Moore]

In fairness, one of the things I like the most about everywhere I go is their food. That is true.

[Andy Holloway]

Now I'm curious everything you know about Chicago in like, I don't know, 55 seconds.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

Well.

[Jason Moore]

Chicago is home of one of the largest groups of foot clan in the world, which is what they are primarily known for. Addition to that, they have several sports teams, one of which is the Bears, who have a quarterback that will never amount to anything. That's right. That's right. I said it. Wow. They have the Cubs.

[Andy Holloway]

Very tall tower.

[Jason Moore]

178,000 years. Won a world title.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

They have the Chicago Bulls. Who? Michael Jordan. One of the best, I would say the best player of all time. And he won five championships. I do not count. I do not count. The championship against the Phoenix Suns.

[Mike Wright]

That was fair.

[Jason Moore]

That one did not exist or I would not be here. That's 55 cents.

[Andy Holloway]

That's pretty good. That's pretty good. Yes. Chicago, you're the first stop on the People's Fantasy Tour. New York next week, then San Francisco, Louisiana and Phoenix.

[Mike Wright]

You don't talk about that in Chicago.

[Andy Holloway]

Not even inner division. They're angry.

[Mike Wright]

It's New York.

[Andy Holloway]

Boo the Packer fan. Don't boo us.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, there we go. Let him have it.

[Jason Moore]

But.

[Andy Holloway]

Ballerslive.com Ballerslive.com for tickets. All you out there. Listening. We got a live mailbag on the show today, but right now we got a quick question. Now I want to talk about growing up because we've already done it.

[Jason Moore]

I'm waiting.

[Andy Holloway]

I want us to pick a player under 25 years old and I want to talk about what player they're going to be like when they grow up. Okay, so a young player now what's the comp? What do they grow up to become? What did you. I wanted to be Michael Jordan when I was a kid. I fell short of the goal in many ways.

[Mike Wright]

You got the, you got the shooter, you got the.

[Andy Holloway]

Nobody wants to grow up sweep Detlef shrimp.

[Mike Wright]

They want to grow up and be the shrimp family.

[Jason Moore]

I would be very happy if I grew up in Detlef shrimp.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not the ambition. I wanted to be Jordan. I didn't work out. But what about you guys? You wanted to play basketball too?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, certainly a lot of people don't know this about me. I mean, some do the die hard fans that have listened a long time. But most people don't necessarily know that I can beat everyone out there in one on one basketball. And that is true. I'll kick it off here. The pander bear is out. But in fairness, this isn't pandering. This is actually my comp. Pre NFL draft. If you remember David Montgomery.

[Mike Wright]

Careful.

[Jason Moore]

Who got renamed into David Moppertunity. I'm talking about David Montgomery, rookie running back.

[Mike Wright]

I love that they cheer like, yeah, he's got an opportunity.

[Jason Moore]

He does have a great opportunity. So when I was scouting him, literally what I wrote, and I quote, was that I think he could be a great workhorse back if a team invested in him. I don't think they will. I was wrong with the second part because the Bears invested in him and I believe he will be a workhorse back. My comp for him. I believe he grows up to be Frank Gore, which is happy about that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I'm curious.

[Andy Holloway]

I would imagine you'd be happy with Frank Gore's career.

[Jason Moore]

I would be happy with that. You're talking about a guy who over the last decade has been the running back 14 on average. Frank Gore to me is, is. He's not.

[Andy Holloway]

They want more.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. Okay. He's going to grow up to be ladanian Tomlinson.

[Mike Wright]

There's the pander.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the thing. Frank Gore, I believe, other than aging, is not exceptional at anything, but he's very good at everything. There's no, there's no fault in his game and that's What David Mopartunity is, he is a very well rounded back. Look, him and Frank Gore, they both run a 4, 6, 3. No one's blazing. Yes, a blazing 4, 6, 3. No One's Confusing them with Ted Ginn. And I, you know, I think he is well rounded. I believe he will be about that. Like a running back 14. Not necessarily a top 10 back, but a high end RB2 for a long time. His body, his frame, I think he can hold up. So I believe David Moppertunity grows up to be Frank Gore.

[Andy Holloway]

I think any reasonable Bears fan should like that comp. They should be content with that. Mike, what do you. What do you think? What did you want to be when you grew up?

[Mike Wright]

Well, when I was very young, I wanted to be a dinosaur.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

It didn't work out strange. My parents told me I could be anything. Nah, they were liars.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Then I wanted to be an astronaut. And then I wanted to be a global sensation. Rock star.

[Andy Holloway]

Uh huh. You kind of did that.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yes. My new best friend in the crowd. I didn't make it. Yeah, but I mean, I guess we're touring with the podcast, so it's good enough.

[Andy Holloway]

Good enough, but such high.

[Mike Wright]

I want to talk about a wide receiver I love coming into the draft. Paris Campbell.

[Jason Moore]

He. Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

Look, the guy has great hands. Check number one. For a player whose number one job is to catch the ball.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Solid.

[Mike Wright]

He is Unlike David, opportunities. 4, 6. Paris Campbell is crazy fast. And I got him who he can aspire to be when he grows up. A fellow yak master. The yak master of the past ten years. Ten? That's a little bit long. I was gonna go four, five, but let's go ten. Okay, sure. Ten years, why not? Who cares? No one's listening.

[Jason Moore]

We make the rules here.

[Mike Wright]

But. But Golden Tate has been incredible. An incredible wide receiver, especially once he was freed from the shackles of the Seattle Seahawks. And he got to be the slot wide receiver for the Detroit Lions. He got to excel. That's fine. We can boo the Lions. I don't really care, but thank you. But he was an incredible. He just gets those short yardage, the short yard passes, the air yards, they don't matter. They do not matter to Golden Tate because he can break tackles, he makes moves. And Paris Campbell is much faster and shiftier than Golden Tate. But if you were aspiring to be a great slot wide receiver, why not want to be Golden Tate when you grew up?

[Andy Holloway]

Nine years. That's how long Golden Tate's career is now.

[Mike Wright]

But how long?

[Andy Holloway]

Not good. He was only fantasy players don't get Detroit in Detroit right when he started the high target totals.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. You like Paris Campbell a lot?

[Mike Wright]

I do.

[Andy Holloway]

Can he score more than Golden Tate scores? I think so.

[Mike Wright]

Because. Because he's so fast it. Where Golden Tate can get caught. Paris Campbell, if. Like was similar to Odell Beckham, if. If he makes the first man miss on a slant and the defense is in the wrong position, Paris Campbell is Gonna score an 82% catch rate last year, 809 yards after the catch. I think that was a sensational pick by the Colts.

[Jason Moore]

The reason that I would say, like, I was not a huge Paris Campbell fan in the draft solely because he wasn't a downfield receiver. We don't know if his routes are good or not. He's just blazing fast and can. And can make a man miss. But going to Andrew Luck, going to Frank Reich, I think that he fits their system and what they're doing. So I'm. I'm higher on. I'm higher on him now. I like that comp, that golden take comp.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I'm going with Calvin Ridley here. Wide receiver, Atlanta Falcons.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

And I brought this up in the studio yesterday of what comp I was going to go to, and you. You looked at me sideways. You said you're on board now.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I'm there. We got there, and it's strange.

[Andy Holloway]

But stay with me. I think Calvin Ridley grows up to be not quite Julio Jones.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Almost.

[Mike Wright]

So close. Accomplished my dream. So close of being not quite somebody.

[Andy Holloway]

He wants to be Julio because you don't. You don't grow up wanting to be Detlef Shrimpf. You grow up wanting to be Jordan. He grows up to be Julio. But listen, Julio is another physical specimen. You can't repeat it. A different Calvin did, but that's Calvin Johnson. You're not going to get that out of Calvin Ridley. He's 6:1, but he's a little guy. Julio was 98 percentile everywhere.

[Jason Moore]

This is not a physical comp.

[Andy Holloway]

This is more a career comp in so much that when you look at what happened to Julio Jones when he came out, Roddy White was the incumbent, number one and a dominating fantasy performer in Atlanta. Well, Roddy White was 29 years old when they drafted Julio Jones. Julio Jones was 29 years old when Calvin Ridley was drafted. And it's interesting, too. They both went.

[Mike Wright]

Calvin Ridley was also 29 when he was drafted. Calvin.

[Andy Holloway]

Did I say 29?

[Mike Wright]

No. He's a very Old joke.

[Jason Moore]

It's just a gift.

[Andy Holloway]

He is an old rookie. They both went to Alabama. They both had massive production at Alabama. In fact, Julio in 40 games there, 2,600 yards, 15 touchdowns. Ridley in 44 games, 2,700 yards, 19 touchdowns at Alabama. The rookie seasons pretty comparable. Julio Jones 54 for 959. 8 last year. Really good season for Calvin Ridley. I don't think anybody expected. No, we did not that kind of production, even if it was bursty, even if it was this game and then this game. And the reason why is the same reason it was for Julio in his first couple years. You have an incumbent number one, Ridley's rookie year, 64 for 821 and 10. The torch will get passed to Ridley. He may not be fully Julio, but it will happen either via injury or age over the next few years. And I think it's a very. It's an ambitious comp. Sure, he'll be the number one guy there. And I think he can. I think he can perform to the degree of like Roddy White, what Roddy White was before. So they've. They've drafted their next superstar number one for fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, they spent the first round pick on him.

[Andy Holloway]

Both first rounders.

[Mike Wright]

Calvin Ridley is an excellent route runner. So where he lacks in Julio's freakness, so to speak, Calvin Ridley can be that technician. More like not to go away from the comp, but Antonio Brown, where he. He can't rely on the fact that I can just outrun players in the NFL, but I'm on board.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you expect the big plays last year you got from Calvin Ridley?

[Mike Wright]

No, I didn't expect three touchdown games.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, I think he showed more big playability than people expected when he came in to the NFL. So before we get into the news, that was a quick question. I do want to give a special shout out to Carlene and The team from St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

[Mike Wright]

Come on.

[Andy Holloway]

They are here.

[Jason Moore]

They are awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

They're here with us tonight. We are extremely proud to be partnering with them throughout the entire tour with the ultimate draft kit. So, yes, give it up for St. Jude.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

They are doing work, doing serious work.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. So we're proud to be partnering with them. Like I said, let's get into the news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league presented by sleeper.

[Andy Holloway]

Not a lot of news.

[Mike Wright]

That's the end of the news.

[Andy Holloway]

Just a little bit of news. But I want to get your reaction to this bit of news. Matthew Stafford, the report came out. He Was playing through broken bones in his back all of last season. Previously to last season.

[Jason Moore]

Come on.

[Andy Holloway]

Boo. Come on.

[Mike Wright]

Look, we want. You want to win.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like the Raptors fans with Durant right there. Don't do that. But playing through broken bones, by the way, here, here, you can cheer this part against.

[Mike Wright]

Let me see you play through broken bones in your back. Let me see you play an NFL game. We would all die.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Jason Moore]

If you saw me finish one NFL game, then you would see me play through broken bones in my back because the first or second play would happen. Like, there's no doubt.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll work on it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I really wanted to jump off this stage tonight. Speaking of broken bones, I promised I would jump off.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just a little bit for.

[Jason Moore]

For those on the podcast who are not seeing. This is a very tall stage. I was like, I can't do.

[Andy Holloway]

It's at least 50ft.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, at least. But.

[Mike Wright]

But here's what, What's. What's very interesting about that news because we all remember Stafford's fantasy season last year is it was an absolute dumpster. It was really bad.

[Andy Holloway]

Train wreck.

[Mike Wright]

But the first half was actually excellent. I mean, through the first seven weeks, he was averaging 273 passing yards, two touchdowns per game. Like he was. It was actually very good for fantasy. And then things just absolutely fell off a cliff.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, and I bring.

[Mike Wright]

And that would explain it.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, it's more of a reason why they struggled now. They had a new offense in place, new head coach, and Stafford had been known for seven straight years 4,200 plus passing yards.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

All of a sudden, it falls off. The Bears didn't treat him well. Four interceptions, eight sacks in two games.

[Mike Wright]

That's you. I encourage you to cheer that.

[Andy Holloway]

They could have been. I don't know if they broke his back, but they could have.

[Mike Wright]

14. 14 of his 21 passing touchdowns came in those first seven weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So that's how bad things fell apart here.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the reality and what we need to remember with Matthew Stafford. It's so easy as fantasy players or fantasy analysts to get too caught with recency bias and just, yes, whatever happened last year is what's going to happen and not look at the larger set of data. And Matthew Stafford has been a quarterback one. He's been in the top 12 of the last eight years. He's been there six times, so.

[Andy Holloway]

But this year in fantasy drafts, he's being lumped with Andy Dalton and Sam Darnold and Derek Carr and the Honest.

[Mike Wright]

Truth for me is.

[Andy Holloway]

And I don't want to draft him or play him.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. And I had written Stafford off because I thought this was 100% a Golden Tate problem. But perhaps the injury played far.

[Andy Holloway]

Marvin Jones.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

No Marvin Jones. So Danny Amadola there. Now, Mike, I know you've got him. Oh, got him in Dynasty.

[Mike Wright]

How's his health meter doing?

[Andy Holloway]

Just about as it always starts at 100%.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

But it. It goes down.

[Andy Holloway]

Goes down quick. Mike, you brought up Albert Wilson.

[Mike Wright]

Ooh, yes.

[Jason Moore]

Bad news guy.

[Mike Wright]

My new best right here.

[Andy Holloway]

That has to be Albert Wilson himself.

[Mike Wright]

He can't travel with his body.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true. That's the news. He could miss the start of training camp.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You liked him as a. You don't care.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Well, the missing training camp was. Was fully expected.

[Andy Holloway]

That's why he's here tonight.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. He's not doing anything else.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Mike Wright]

The thing about Wilson is he's supposed to be on track for the start of the season, and he is. He is. Like your last round. He is a complete. His sound asleep. This is a Rip Van Winkle. Levels of sleeping. That's a literature reference for people in the crowd. Gonna bust. Boo. I got booed.

[Jason Moore]

Boo. Literature.

[Mike Wright]

Boo.

[Jason Moore]

Reading.

[Mike Wright]

But yeah. So that's why I like Wilson, is he's. He's still on track to be ready for the season.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Anything else we should touch on? The past interference rule has changed again.

[Jason Moore]

Sorry, Saints fans. One year too late. That's.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that better? Let's ask that question. Is it better if an irreparable harm has been done to your team? Damon, our manager, the biggest Saints fan I know. I don't think he stopped crying for days. I mean, that was misery. What a baby.

[Mike Wright]

Get over it.

[Andy Holloway]

But if. If a rule like that happens and then a year later, they fix it.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Does it make you feel better?

[Jason Moore]

Yes. You got. I mean, like, you don't.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you think?

[Jason Moore]

You're not happy? I'm not saying it makes you happy. Like, oh, good, everything's fine. Nothing to see here.

[Andy Holloway]

But would you accept an honorary super bowl trophy?

[Jason Moore]

Of course I would.

[Mike Wright]

If they accept.

[Jason Moore]

If anybody out there has any honorary trophies, I will.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. It's not a trophy. It's a blue. It's a ribbon.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's fine with it.

[Jason Moore]

What else?

[Mike Wright]

Sort of super bowl winner.

[Jason Moore]

Yep, I accept. But look, I would want it changed. You've got to learn from the mistakes that the NFL is making. This is good news. I like that. The NFL is always Progressing, always looking at the rules, saying, let's not just have our game continue to suck.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that was hard. That was difficult. All right, that's news and notes for today. A reminder, grab the sleeper app, the best, most flexible platform.

[Mike Wright]

Before we jump back into the show, we want to thank today's sponsor, Turo. Turo is the largest car sharing marketplace in the world, available across the U.S. canada, the UK and Germany. With over 10 million users worldwide, Turo has the widest selection of cars available. So you can choose the right car for whatever occasion, often at a lower cost than the rental car companies. Whether it's a pickup truck for moving day, a flashy convertible for a weekend giveaway. Find the perfect car for your next adventure on Turo. Or maybe you're in the market for a new car. Book that car on Turo. You see what it's actually like. Live with that car for a couple days, hop on the Turo app or website, find and book the car you want, then meet the host and they'll hand over the keys. Choose from multiple protection plans for each trip which include up to 1 million in liability insurance through Liberty Mutual. Download the Turo app, that's Turo on the App Store or Google play or visit turo.com and right now get $25 off your first trip when you sign up with the promo code footballers at checkout. That's code footballers turo.com terms apply.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's go ahead and move on to you.

[Mike Wright]

Ready for this, the main event.

[Andy Holloway]

Who's going first here?

[Jason Moore]

You know, I'll go first.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Breakouts.

[Andy Holloway]

It's very intense up here, I can tell you that. Very intense.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, there you. Stop. Stop.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, keep going.

[Jason Moore]

You're too kind. You're too kind. I can, I can get him to stop. Watch this. My breakout is Carry on Johnson. Now here, here's, here's the truth.

[Mike Wright]

Jason's last year breakout was no here's.

[Jason Moore]

Carry on, my wayward son.

[Mike Wright]

So here's Jason's 20 20.

[Jason Moore]

Look, I, I only, I only say his name.

[Andy Holloway]

Thick pane of glass. He's got to go all the way three seasons to get through it.

[Jason Moore]

Look, I do, I fully, I 100 believe he's going to break out. He would be my breakout guy. But I've talked to him. I've talked about way too much, too many years. He's not know what you're going to. He's not too many years.

[Mike Wright]

It's his second year in the league.

[Jason Moore]

I look, I'm a man of the People, they don't want to keep hearing me talk about Kerryon Johnson other than that guy. So I'm going to talk about my.

[Andy Holloway]

He owns Carry On Johnson. So that makes sense.

[Jason Moore]

Here's, here's the actual breakout that I'm going for for this show that I want to make a case for because honestly right now I think that the majority that while, while you hear this name from time to time, like oh, he's got breakout potential that's not being realized in the draft at all. He is so cheap.

[Andy Holloway]

So you want to ruin it and.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to ruin it.

[Mike Wright]

Well, the honest to good, I'm not going to give away the name. The hype train was coming out of the station 100% early on in what we call the extended buy. Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

I heard him say it, so I had to do it.

[Mike Wright]

But then the NFL draft happened, right. And it hurt him. That made the train take a quick pit stop. Yeah, someone had a potty.

[Andy Holloway]

Trains are known to do well.

[Mike Wright]

It's really easy.

[Andy Holloway]

Local gas station.

[Mike Wright]

It's very easy to stop a trainer tires.

[Jason Moore]

So look, my, my breakout candidate right now is being drafted as the 95th player in your draft. So you can get him cheap and if he doesn't break out, it's down that battle. He's the 35th wide receiver going in your drafts, which of course, hopefully I'm about to destroy that right now. It is Dante Pettis who is going to break out this year. Let me make a case. Okay. The case starts back in college. I love them coming out of college. A very talented player. 163 receptions, over 2200 yards and 24 touchdowns. Now touchdowns translate. That's one of the. If you look at sticky stats from college, it's kind of funny because touchdowns are one of those we talk about in fantasy football. They're not a sticky stat from year to year in the NFL. They really aren't. You can't predict.

[Andy Holloway]

Difficult to predict.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Difficult to repeat. Circumstantial based on team, offense and opportunities. Calvin Johnson dragged down on the two yard line 47 times one season.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. But when it comes to running backs and wide receivers, specifically from College to the NFL, touchdowns are a great predictor. 24 in college is unbelievable. Another great predictor of NFL success, we've said this on the show before, is special teams kick and punt returning success. And Dante Pettis very well might be the best punt returner in the history of NCAA football. We're talking over 1200 yards.

[Andy Holloway]

I think Devin hester fans are out there.

[Mike Wright]

He said, ncaa.

[Andy Holloway]

I like this.

[Jason Moore]

I did say ncaa. Look. Nine. Nine punt return touchdowns in college. That's unbelievable. So then what happened in the draft last year? We've got to. We've got to rewind the tape and go, okay, look, he was the 12th draft pick taken on day two in the second round. The 49ers drafted him as. That's extremely good draft capital. But it wasn't just that draft capital. They traded their second and their third round pick to go get their guy. They're like, I want Dante Pettis. They draft him, he comes in. So what happens? Week one, week one. Last year, he was a starter. We're talking over 70% of the snapshot. And Pierre Garcon and Marquis Goodwin were healthy then, and they still said, pettis, Pettis, you're in. You're a starter. He finished week one as the wide receiver 20. So then we.

[Andy Holloway]

15 spots higher than he's being drafted this year.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Week two, he has another good week. His snap counts are great. 80%. Gets injured in week three. He's basically out from that point out until week 11. Okay. Because he's dealing with these injuries. He's way lower than 50% snap percentage on all those games. If you look at the game log, you'll see, like, oh, he was. He was playing, but he was injured. He was not playing many snaps. It wasn't until week 11 that he got back up to over 70% of those snaps. And from week 11 to 14 last year, this is still his rookie year where he's figuring out the offense. At this point, Jimmy Garoppolo is gone over that period. He was the wide receiver 12, and he didn't do it. Here's one of the things that a lot of times those numbers, when you're like, oh, this month he was the wide receiver 12. Well, that's because he had some, like, you know, 252 touchdown game. That inflates everything. All four weeks, he was a wide receiver two or better. He was consistent week in and week out as a rookie. Now you look at what he's talking about this offseason. He's talking about how, like, he didn't. He. He was so focused on the playbook and trying to get it. He was so in his head trying that he wasn't that great.

[Andy Holloway]

He wasn't playing fast right now look.

[Jason Moore]

At his outlook this year. Who's he competing with? Marquis Goodwin. Everyone is basically saying he's pretty much a backup even in camp right now. Pierre Garcon is gone. Debo Samuel. I love Debo Samuel, but Debo Samuel is going to deal with the same Kyle Shanahan, difficult playbook rookie.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm so thankful that you love Dante Pettis, because I. I felt like for a couple. The couple weeks after Deebo was drafted and Jalen Hurd was drafted, it was clouding your vision, but you've come around.

[Mike Wright]

I was the glaucoma.

[Jason Moore]

Look, talent. Talent wins when you've got a great offensive coordinator and the opportunity, he is the clear wide receiver, one for the team. So if he's the wide receiver, one for Kyle Shanahan's system. With Jimmy Garoppolo coming back, taking a year to leap. And if you listen to what people are saying about his camp this year, they're raving. Everybody is raving. You've got Kyle Shanahan saying he. Look, he didn't come back in the offseason just to get healthy. He came to get better. And you could see that in his body. And you want to talk body. You want to talk a little bit of handsomeness. Let's listen to what Jimmy Garoppolo, the handsome one himself, says about Dante Pettis.

[Andy Holloway]

They love handsome things.

[Jason Moore]

They love him.

[Andy Holloway]

Big fan of handsome things.

[Jason Moore]

This is why they love me. Here's what Jimmy Garoppolo said. And look. Brace yourselves. He says Dante's body is maturing. Oh, gross. He says he's coming out of breaks with power. He has speed. It doesn't look like he's moving very fast, but he is. It's a weird thing.

[Mike Wright]

That's a compliment.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no, listen. Yes, it is a huge compliment. Think about.

[Mike Wright]

That's what people say about me. He's not. He doesn't look like he's going very fast, but that's the end of the.

[Jason Moore]

That's what you say about yourself. I don't look like I'm going fast, But I am.

[Mike Wright]

But I am.

[Jason Moore]

Trust me. Check this out. It's like Aran Foster, right? You remember he always looked like he was just jogging. And it's like he's 10 yards away from people. So this is what he said. He said he, you know, it doesn't look like he's running really fast, but he is. It's a weird thing for a quarterback to get used to. He's different than most guys running. It's hard to describe unless you're seeing it, but you're trying to throw it.

[Mike Wright]

Just have to believe.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no, listen. This is Jimmy Garoppolo talking Not me.

[Andy Holloway]

Trustworthy source.

[Mike Wright]

This is his quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

What source do you want to know more about than the only player who's.

[Andy Holloway]

The I'm 100% on board on Dante pesticide. I went out and acquired him in our dynasty.

[Mike Wright]

Except for the body mature part.

[Andy Holloway]

That part is.

[Mike Wright]

It didn't go well.

[Andy Holloway]

I need to see it to believe it, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

His body is maturing. Believe it.

[Mike Wright]

Has he gotten the talk?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I. I talked to him. Things are changing.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to know. I want to hear. Because me and you are on the same. We're in the same camp with Dante and his maturing body now, Mike. I want to hear how it goes wrong. What? What could go wrong for Dante Pettis next year?

[Mike Wright]

I tried to make him my breakup player, and then I found out that.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason was going to go wrong.

[Mike Wright]

We're all on board with Dante Pettis, especially because the only thing that can go wrong for Dante Pettis is that Jason is in fact correct with his hypothetical power of the fantasy football industry. And Dante Pettis starts rising up until that to like the fifth round in drafts because people start getting itchy trigger figures when they're drafting.

[Andy Holloway]

They need more of a secret podcast.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Don't tell anybody.

[Jason Moore]

Don't tell anybody if you're in a draft.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Don't draft them if it's a mock.

[Andy Holloway]

So, Mike, it's your turn. Your breakout.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Because mine's another white out, so I want to go to yours.

[Mike Wright]

I kind of wish I had the sunglasses because I know what's going to be said, but I don't need somebody. Have a. Because I welcome the hate. I welcome it. This year's breakout for me. Quarterback. The first overall pick in this year's draft, selected by the Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray will be a breakout at the quarterback position.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he will.

[Mike Wright]

Let's. Sounds good to me.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm on board.

[Mike Wright]

Jason's body is maturing right now. This is what I want to point out about Kyler Murray. This is where we're going to start. Rich Rebar dubbed it the Konami code, which is very eloquent because as Jason and I, we are very opposed to it. Quarterback rushing in fantasy football is broken, in our opinion.

[Jason Moore]

So stupid.

[Mike Wright]

But here we are.

[Andy Holloway]

Chico. Every.

[Mike Wright]

Every 10 yards they run, they get a point, as opposed to the 25 passing yards. Yards. So just the fact that he is a rushing quarterback is a huge deal. I want to highlight some rushing quarterbacks and these guys, these are quarterbacks who were selected very high in the draft to bad Teams. But because they are running quarterbacks, huge things happen for them their rookie season. Cam Newton 14.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh man, I got that.

[Jason Moore]

Oh yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh.

[Mike Wright]

So Basie almost 1500 rushing yards his last year at Auburn. He was the first overall pick. Where did he finish? Oh, quarterback three on the heels of over seven.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's just Cam Newton.

[Mike Wright]

Just the 1, 700 rushing yards for him that season helped elevate him. RG3. Robert Griffin had almost 700 rushing yards his final year, which by the way, he had 843 as freshman quarterback, second overall pick. Oh, 815 rushing yards, quarterback five on the season. What's happening here? Vince Young, he burned bright.

[Jason Moore]

He and, and, and in fairness, he was not very good.

[Mike Wright]

In all fairness, you are correct. But it doesn't matter. Nobody booed that because in college, his final season in college, over a thousand rushing yards, he came in the quarterback nine on the heels of over 550 rushing yards. Lamar Jackson last year, over 1600 yards is a little bit more difficult because he didn't come in until halfway through the season. But in that time he was the quarterback eight in the seven games when he started because he had over 550 yards. Should I keep going with this? Because Josh Allen, Colin Kaepernick, who was, he wasn't a first rounder but still came in in his first year as a full time starter, was an absolute fantasy stud. Kyler Murray's last year in college, really his only year as a starter. What did he have? Oh, over a thousand yards rushing. It's just the baseline that, that you come in. Did you not hear the other quarterbacks who I was talking about?

[Andy Holloway]

They went to college too.

[Mike Wright]

Look, quarterbacks who rush for high production as a quarterback in college, it translates very well into the NFL. And you know what? Oh, weird. He does this thing that's called throwing the ball as well. And Kliff Kingsbury, new head coach, he's bringing in the air raid system. They have restocked the Arizona Cardinals at the wide receiver position on very high draft capital picks. Christian Kirk last year in the second, Andy Isabella this year in the second. Hakeem Butler, who draft Twitter and many of us, thank you very much, we loved him.

[Andy Holloway]

His body already matured.

[Mike Wright]

He slipped all the way to the fourth round. And don't overlook the pick of Keyshawn Johnson in the sixth round. He was an absolute production stud. Here are some numbers, some very interesting numbers for Kyler Murray last year. According to pff, his adjusted completion percentage, he ranked as the number two quarterback in the country. His adjusted completion percentage versus pressure. The number one adjusted versus the blitz. Number two, his deep pass adjusted completion percentage. Number seven, average depth of target number eight. So he wasn't just.

[Andy Holloway]

Not just dinking and dunking.

[Mike Wright]

He's not throwing little dump offs to Paris Campbell. He is absolutely going deep. You combine the fact that rushing production translate and Kyler Murray is an absolute freak athlete with the fact that he can throw the ball and his. His numbers. We were all very, very excited for Baker Mayfield last year. His passing numbers are big. Better. They are better than Baker Mayfield's last college year. Kyler Murray, it doesn't matter if he's on a bad team because he's going to break out.

[Andy Holloway]

Kyler Murray has. I fully support applauding that as a Cardinal fan, by the way. How confident though? Let's put this to a test. He's a ninth round draft pick.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you want him there? Are you confident making him you spend a ninth? I feel like yes.

[Mike Wright]

I would gladly take him in the ninth.

[Andy Holloway]

Make him your starter.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Because week one.

[Mike Wright]

Because I am extremely confident that by the end of the season Kyler Murray will be a quarterback one. And he has. Yeah, there we go. My man in the front. And then there's the upside of just what if he's. What if he rushes like Cam Newton except doesn't throw the ball like Cam.

[Jason Moore]

Newton throws like Baker.

[Mike Wright]

He actually throws like bakery. I mean you. You Frankenstein that into one quarterback. And that is outrageous production.

[Jason Moore]

Here's one thing that we can say and this is genuine. Like because we are in Arizona, we make no qualms about.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, we're.

[Jason Moore]

We're impartial. No, we are Arizona Cardinals fans.

[Andy Holloway]

Which is embarrassing to say after last year.

[Jason Moore]

Right? Super embarrassing. I'm not proud of this. This is just a fact I share. Facts born into it. Not proud of all the time. But the reality is we don't want to put ourselves out there because of getting the homer thing. But we also get the information. Like for instance, last year Josh Rosen traded up to the number 10 pick to get him. And the buzz.

[Mike Wright]

That was a groan. That was the saddest groan I've ever heard in my life.

[Andy Holloway]

That was my. That was the echo of me on draft day when they took him the.

[Jason Moore]

The buzz of Arizona beat reporters on Josh Rosen last year was non existent. Nobody ever came out and said, man, he looks great in camp. I mean it was Sam Bradford's the starter and maybe we'll see. You know, it just. There was nothing this Year. It's totally different. The players, the coaches, they're all saying there's something different about this guy. He's special, he's different.

[Andy Holloway]

But they're doing, they're saying it like this.

[Jason Moore]

They're. Oh, please. But I agree.

[Mike Wright]

Who, who are they comping? Who are they comping? Kyler Murray's throwing.

[Jason Moore]

The most common computer pre draft was Russell Wilson. But right now everybody's been comming it to Pat Mahomes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you heard it here first. 50 touchdowns for Kyler.

[Mike Wright]

Buy the UDK. That's what you'll see.

[Andy Holloway]

I do think it's hard for people to buy the transformation when you, you go from being so bad on offense. 14 points a game was like six points worse than the second worst team in the NFL.

[Mike Wright]

We call that a Mike McCoy.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, gross.

[Mike Wright]

But that was the, that was the whole point of me pointing of these. Yes, these quarterbacks were high draft capital guys.

[Jason Moore]

Meaning they were drafted. Cam Newton was drafted number one. Meaning they were the worst team the year prior.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we have bust on the way. I got to get my breakout in. I said when I grew up I wanted to be Mike Jordan. Wanted to be like Mike. Well, bring another mic to the table. I don't want to be like you.

[Mike Wright]

You should.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm bringing Mike Williams. Mike Williams last season. He's such an interesting case now. I'm so used to this Sammy Watkins lover over here. Repeatedly say the same refrain about draft capital. How many years will Sammy Watkins life be saved by his draft capital?

[Mike Wright]

At least three more.

[Andy Holloway]

I @ least get to say it about Mike Williams. Okay, Last year, breakout, 10 touchdowns, receiving another one on the ground. How did he. How did he find fantasy value last year?

[Mike Wright]

Touchdowns. Touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it was just touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

That was it.

[Andy Holloway]

In fact, hyper crazy. Weirdly better than ever. Efficiency, 43 total receptions on the season. 43. 43 on six targets. Matt Okada brought this up. He has a beast. I agree. He brought this up. He is just the second player ever to have a season of 10 plus touchdowns on fewer than 70 targets in history.

[Jason Moore]

But, but Andy, that sounds like that, that sounds like regression is coming. That doesn't sound like a good.

[Mike Wright]

Hold on, wait. The VOPO was aware of regression.

[Jason Moore]

But look, I just got caught up.

[Andy Holloway]

Super fluent now. He's been listening for years.

[Jason Moore]

You guys are great.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I understand. Touchdown regression, touchdown predictability. We talked about it at the top of the show. Very difficult to repeat at that position. You know what makes it easier when you're 6, 4, 2, 18. It makes it easier when you only had 66 total targets last year, Tyrell Williams leaves your quarterback. Phillip rivers had a 131.6 passer rating every time he targeted you on the season. And you have the draft capital of being the seventh overall pick in the draft with more opportunity. The plain and simple truth is he wasn't on the field enough last year. But when he was look at reception perception. Dominated against zone. 84.6% catch rate, dominated in contested catches. And he's a monster. There are players, two of them that I'll bring up. Mike Evans.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And DEZ Bryant when they made their break, when they made their breakout jump. And they're similar size comps to Mike Williams. Dez went from the number 20 wide receiver, jumped up to the top 10. And Mike Evans did the same thing. He jumped up from 24 or sorry, Dez jumped from 24 to 2. Mike Evans jumped from 20 to 3. So they were both in that range. Mike, Mike Williams Last year number 24 overall. So yes, maybe, maybe the touchdowns regress. They probably won't. I'm going to go on year number two. 10 receiving touchdowns for Mike Williams. Opportunities to grow in the offense. Opportunities with a great quarterback. You don't have variables in that offense. We talk all about the Los Angeles Chargers, one of the easiest to predict offenses because not as many moving parts. Mike Williams is going to have so many more opportunities and I think the volume targets trust of the quarterback another year, 70 catches, 10 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

So.

[Andy Holloway]

I get oppo.

[Jason Moore]

I guess if you're saying 70, 70 catches, 10 touchdowns, that could be considered a breakup. My issue though with Mike Williams is the fact that, you know the two examples you brought up, dez, Mike Evans, they became the clear cut number one on their team and that's not happening unless Keenan Allen gets injured. Keenan Allen is the one. And I don't think Philip Rivers is the type of quarterback that's going to support two top 15 type quarter wide receivers. So I'm less, I'm less bullish on Mike Williams than you are.

[Mike Wright]

For me it's. I, I don't. I'm on board. I think Mike Williams absolutely can. He's for me. He's not Michael. I'm not doing the banging the table for Mike Williams and for me it's more a matter of Hunter Henry.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Where, where that with the variables you talked about. He is the one, he's the one variable that wasn't there for Mike Williams. Ten touchdowns. What, what if Hunter Henry took four of those and then, then nobody really Cares.

[Jason Moore]

Then what?

[Mike Wright]

Mike Williams.

[Jason Moore]

Then Mike Williams would have six.

[Mike Wright]

Your math is accurate, Jason. You did it.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. You want to talk bus?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Bus.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I'm excited to hear.

[Mike Wright]

Now, look, when we're in the studio, when we're in the studio that we're recording the show, it's the three of us. We're on the microphones.

[Jason Moore]

We.

[Mike Wright]

We got Judge Giamatti who's in the bag holding down the record.

[Andy Holloway]

Give it up for the judge. Come, wave. Come wave.

[Mike Wright]

Come here.

[Andy Holloway]

Come say hello.

[Mike Wright]

The judge is getting some FaceTime. There.

[Jason Moore]

He.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

Now go away. Go away.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you, Judge Giamatti.

[Jason Moore]

Get back in the dungeon.

[Mike Wright]

So. And Al Borland is also. He's also in holding things down. He's. He's not as known as the judge yet, but we'll get there. But when we play the drops, you guys don't cheer like that. What's up with that?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I don't know. I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

It, frankly, is bringing down my confidence.

[Andy Holloway]

You're talking about Jason and I.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. We've grown used to it.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

You got to do something special.

[Jason Moore]

I just might step it up.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, my bad.

[Jason Moore]

All right, well, look, are you kicking it off? Yeah. I mean, if we're going in order. It's been a while since I got to talk a lot. I love talking, so I want to go. Look, I know last year. Last year didn't go so well with my beginning of the end for the Patriots.

[Andy Holloway]

Not as well as you would have hoped. Not every beginning begins with a Super bowl championship. The beginning of every end is a time.

[Jason Moore]

Now, hold up.

[Mike Wright]

Jason, can you call for the end of the Cardinals, please, Please.

[Jason Moore]

Now, wait.

[Mike Wright]

It's over.

[Jason Moore]

In fairness. In fairness. Mike, I can't wait to hear this. Yes. Let me justify how. This was a good call. My comment was that.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. You're gonna justify. It was a good call.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, yes. You want to hear how. Oh, I would love it, because people were drafting Chris Hogan and Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michelle and all these players, and they all. If you got them in draft season, they all disappointed. So that's how I justify.

[Andy Holloway]

But victory lap.

[Jason Moore]

Victory lap. All right. But I'm going back to the well a little bit here. My bus this year is Sony Michelle.

[Mike Wright]

Sony Michelle is all his dynasty owners.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I know.

[Andy Holloway]

Disappointed.

[Jason Moore]

And this is not. Look, the injury is a worry. Right. But I. This is. This is not based on the injury. This is not. This is. Let's say he plays 16 games. I believe Sony Michelle will be a bust. But then you also have injury risk. The fact that he just got his knee scoped again. He, he was.

[Mike Wright]

I got an E scope last week. That's fine.

[Jason Moore]

You're. You're running great, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, faster than we think.

[Jason Moore]

So here, look. The hype on Sony Michelle. Yeah, the hype on Sony Michelle's real. And, and for just cause. He had some great numbers last week. From week four on last or last year.

[Mike Wright]

Keep going, just keep going.

[Jason Moore]

From week four on with Sony Michelle when he wasn't injured, which he missed a couple games on there, he was on a 16 game pace of 269 carries for 1,232 yards and nine touchdowns. That sounds great. Now he's coming into year two. They're going to need to rely on the run. A lot of people are saying no, Sony Michelle's a breakout candidate this year. If he plays, he's going to be great.

[Andy Holloway]

And I watched the playoffs. That's why, I mean, that's part of it.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

He dominated in the playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

He dominated in the playoffs. You can see how people like Sonny Michelle. But in the last five seasons, if you look at the top 50 running back performances in half PPR, there's only been two times that a player has had fewer than 25 receptions. The top 50 performances at running back, there's only been two times THAT a player has had fewer than 25receptions. Now Sony Michelle on his 16 game pace, like giving him all the games was on pace for seven. So there's like a few that's less than 25 is what I'm saying. Thank you. It was LeGarrett blunt in 2016 for the Patriots.

[Mike Wright]

What team?

[Jason Moore]

That's the point is people are saying, okay, he's going to be the legarette blunt, the 2016 legarre blunt where success colors.

[Andy Holloway]

The love of Sonny Michelle, the possibility of high double, you know, mid double digit touchdowns, that's what's in people's minds. But you love Damien Harris. You love some of the other pieces.

[Jason Moore]

There are two main reasons why I think he's going to be a bust. The first is this. It's receptions. He's not in that role. He's James White, Damien Harris, they're going to come in and Rex Burkhead. We saw this with how they use Legarette Blunt and we saw this with how they use Sony Michelle. He's not a receiving back. And historically speaking, what you have to have in touchdown Volume is enormous. If you're going to be a top 12 running back and you're not going to catch the ball, it has to be that LeGarrett blunt 18 touchdown season, the Michael Turner 17 touchdown season. That's what you have to have and you're not going to get it. But here's the other side. It's not just the receptions, it's Damien Harris. Look, they spent a first round pick last year on Sony. I get it. But then the very next year when Sony's dealing with knee issues, they go out and on day two draft Damian Harris who right now is the starter in camp because Sony Michel's not there and everybody's saying, wow, he's really good. Look at what Sony Michel did in the games that Rex Burkhead was on the field and the games when he wasn't. When he was not on the field, he was averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game. That's great. When Rex Burkhead played almost half down to 7.6 fantasy points per game. And why touchdowns? Rex Burkhead came in and sometimes he would vulture the touchdown. Sony wouldn't get it. Damian Harris is not going to allow Sonya Michelle to be at 12 or 14 or plus touchdowns. It's just not happening. So if he's not catching the ball and he's not up in the double digit touchdowns, then it's not happening.

[Andy Holloway]

I certainly think that. And Chicago fans have witnessed the Jordan Howard reception experiments. Right? How'd that. Not good.

[Mike Wright]

They don't like him anymore. He's gone.

[Andy Holloway]

I know, I know. They and I agree. I think Sonny Michelle is never going to be a pass catcher. The only point of disagreement that I will have is when you saw the workload that he handled in the playoffs and you contest that Damian Harris is automatically not going to let him have those. Damian Harris has to earn his spot in a starting rotation. Something that. No, he doesn't. No, it's just automatic.

[Jason Moore]

He doesn't have to earn it when he's drafted in the second round. He's. He's earned it by their draft capital. That's my belief.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I think you're wrong.

[Jason Moore]

We'll see.

[Andy Holloway]

And the thing is, I think you're especially wrong.

[Jason Moore]

Oh wait, wait, wait, wait.

[Mike Wright]

Hold up, hold up, hold up.

[Jason Moore]

Are we making a. What's the water bet here?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know yet. Mike, let's say this.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, so he's calling for a bust.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it's easy. I'll look at adp. Sonny Michelle's going in the fourth round, eighth pick. By the way. It's been dropping over the last month.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Because of.

[Mike Wright]

Because of the knee scope. I will set the bar at RB20. Are you willing to go. Let's go with Jason. We got. Are you willing to go rb.

[Jason Moore]

Where is he being drafted right now? Because I think he's going above that, but I am still fine with that.

[Andy Holloway]

You want to go over there?

[Jason Moore]

Sure. But I also want to know where he's being drafted.

[Andy Holloway]

He's in the. He's at 409. I don't have the position right in front of me.

[Jason Moore]

Okie dokie, hit the button. Waterbed.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll tell you if you want to audit it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's the. Is right there. He's the 21st running back in standard.

[Andy Holloway]

Which is where he lives in a standard league. He's 24th in A and a half. So yeah, you're going to lose.

[Mike Wright]

He.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

He doesn't. When the Patriots lose, which is historically, not every other year, but when. In games. In games. When they lose. Sony Michelle's production and fantasy value absolutely evaporates.

[Andy Holloway]

I just think it's hard. A rookie season that was plagued by injuries. You didn't get to see it very much. I don't think you can go and project his rookie season based on the regular season. Not look at the playoffs, not look at what he did. He was a first round draft capital guy.

[Mike Wright]

But what happened in the playoffs he was great. But were they super bowl or were they losing?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, they were winning.

[Mike Wright]

That's the entire.

[Andy Holloway]

So you heard it here first. The beginning of the end. Mike believes the Patriots are going to lose this year.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Now if they. Now here's the thing. If they start losing this year, then the beginning was last year.

[Andy Holloway]

I have no doubt that we will hear that throughout the season. Mike, it's your turn.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

So bust out your bust.

[Mike Wright]

That's a weird thing to say. All right, so season long fantasy. The relationship that I want to talk about right now, it's like a road trip. It's not always the destination, but the journey needs to be fun, exciting as well. I just watched the movie, a goofy movie with my children and I was. That's where I thought. Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

I can tell you from being around Mike for going on 10 plus years, really, really likes the goofy movie.

[Mike Wright]

And I can tell you that me and the crowd see eye to eye. Eye to eye. Look a road. And now the reason I thought of that I'm watching this. Max and his dad, goofy. They go on A road trip. And it is awesome. They're stopping. They're jet skiing on the ocean. They're going to monster truck rallies, they're going to amusement park. They were enjoying the ride. That's what I want to do with the people that I draft early at the top of my family.

[Andy Holloway]

Every step of the way. The whole season, the whole road trip, you want to enjoy yourself.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. And that's why the guys who are going in the top 10 at the wide receiver position on fantasy football calculated they only had poor gains based on expectation on 34% of their games. That means that on average, you were.

[Andy Holloway]

Happy more often than not.

[Mike Wright]

On average, the top 10, they were only a wide receiver three or worse. 34% of time. That's sensational. That's a player. I plug him in. I don't worry about anything. I'm having a great time. In fact, these other players that are going 10 spots behind the player I'm going to talk about, they were also very fun. They only were a wide receiver three or worse on 44% of the game. So they're well above you.

[Andy Holloway]

Take them along with you.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, over half the time, we're having a great time.

[Jason Moore]

Having a good time. Sorry.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, why'd you. Stop it, man.

[Jason Moore]

Having a good time.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you. So I think we can all agree that when we. When we take a wide receiver one or wide receiver two, we want to know that in over 50% of the games, we are going to enjoy the ride. They are going to produce well. This player who is being drafted as a wide receiver one, he is being drafted as the wide receiver 12. In 2016, this player was a wide receiver three or worse in 56% of his games. The next year, that number increased to 71% of his games. Last year, 66% of his games, he was a wide receiver three or worse. That you're talking about. That's a road trip where I'm on with my wife, my three kids, my dog. I drive 15 hours straight and I'm looking for a ravine because I want to take my car off of the ledge. I'm not having fun on that road trip. I got where I needed to go, sure, but I wasn't having fun. That wide receiver plays for the Dallas Cowboys and his name is Amari Cooper.

[Jason Moore]

But, but, but. Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. You're back. You're back so soon. Voice of public opinion.

[Andy Holloway]

He knows about regression now. Mike, watch out.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Mike, I'm a lot smarter now, and, and I know that he was much better once he became a cowboy, so.

[Mike Wright]

Well, here's the thing. Remember when I said in 2018 he was a wide receiver three or worse over the season? In 66% of his games.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

In the nine games for Dallas, guess what percent he was a wide receiver? Three or worse. 66%. Because in.

[Jason Moore]

In four.

[Andy Holloway]

That's consistency, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

That is.

[Mike Wright]

That's true. At least we know who he is. Which is my point. So in four of nine games for the Cowboys last year, 36 or fewer yards. At the end of the day, Amari Cooper is going to have enough burst games that you look at the destination and you're, oh, yeah, I got a top 15 wide receiver. He must have been great. And that's going to be everybody else looking at the people who took the road trip with Amari Cooper. I don't care.

[Andy Holloway]

I do care.

[Mike Wright]

Not care if Amari Cooper finishes as a top 15. I don't care if he finishes in the top 12, because we know who he is. He is a great wide receiver. But somehow he just manages to disappear in over half of his games. This is not a player I am selecting as a top 12 wide receiver. Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

Zabopo. Agree.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think that's probably smart. Sounds some good advice, Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I. Look, you're not. I'm not gonna try to talk you back into Amari Cooper. He. He makes you really, really mad as a fantasy owner.

[Mike Wright]

And look, I'm gonna hear from the Volpo three to four times. Yeah, I told you so. Amari Cooper dropped 150 and two and that was a great week. Enjoy the next four.

[Andy Holloway]

It has been his historical career narrative. Not fun to own half the time. Those games that you're talking about. He's on the bench.

[Mike Wright]

This is a wide receiver who is heading into year five of his career.

[Andy Holloway]

Like, that's like Sammy Watkins.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it kind of is. Like Sammy Watkins. You're right. And weird. You don't like Sammy Watkins.

[Andy Holloway]

It's funny.

[Mike Wright]

I think we know who he is at this point.

[Andy Holloway]

No, because we know who. We didn't know who he was until we read some of his tweets. Then we found out he was a lizard person. But let's digress. You're not. Yeah, no lizard people. Here is. Here's. Here's something we were talking about on the flight.

[Mike Wright]

Someone rips their skin off in the crowd. We do exist.

[Andy Holloway]

I would be back on this Watkins if that happens. We were flying over here. We flew in today, and we got. We actually had.

[Jason Moore]

Unfortunately.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, this was the Great thing. Mike. You know what happened with Mike? He had a few flights canceled.

[Mike Wright]

The airline that shall not be named.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. He's better looking than Tom Hanks. All that whole story.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

But the best part is we convinced him to get on a plane almost immediately. Or you did. You convinced him to get back on a plane.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, stop.

[Andy Holloway]

And here's another little behind the curtains. We had two flights to come out here today. We were that afraid. Two airlines, two separate flights. Just in case one didn't work.

[Mike Wright]

That's true.

[Andy Holloway]

We knew you were driving a long ways. But here's the thing. I think they're just screaming out airlines they hate. Which is all airlines.

[Jason Moore]

Delta.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, did I hear a spirit?

[Jason Moore]

Give me JetBlue.

[Mike Wright]

Man, those three destinations are awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

We really do need to figure out a new way to fly as humans. But yes. Let's see. We were in the exit row. So that was a good thing. Right? First off, very tall. Need the legroom. We're in the exit row. We started to ask the intrinsic question in the event because they ask you in the event of a problem on the plane, are you willing and able to assist the other passengers?

[Mike Wright]

Willing and able.

[Andy Holloway]

Wearing an Abel. And we were starting to just wonder like if we're in that fight or flight situation. When your heart is beating and your skin is flushed and your pupils are dilating and the panic is going on. Would you help or would you maybe accidentally jump out real quick?

[Mike Wright]

Are you the first one out slamming the door behind you?

[Andy Holloway]

And we all want to believe that the fighter flight would say I'm going to save all these people. I'm just not like a hundred point zero zero percent that would happen. I hope that's the case.

[Mike Wright]

They should ask your percentage percent chance.

[Andy Holloway]

What are the odds you're going to help if this thing goes south?

[Jason Moore]

50. 50.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. We. You can stay.

[Andy Holloway]

Amari's about 66%.

[Mike Wright]

No eggs in row for that guy.

[Andy Holloway]

No. But this player is going one spot ahead of Mike Williams. He is my bus this year. I'm in full physiological reaction to him. I'm sweaty. I don't. The fight or flight is there. And I can tell you with this player, I am jumping out immediately.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Him too. But the answer is Darius Geiss.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

The crowd they've already drafted. And the simple answer with nothing to it is that it's. It's just not going to happen for Darius Geist this year. It's just not. It might be next year. It might be the year after that. It might be in A time machine where he goes back and doesn't get injured in the preseason or Adrian Peterson isn't re signed to the same roster and has an over a thousand yard season in the offense. But it's just, I'm telling you, it's just not going to be worth drafting him. And like I said, he's going in the fifth round ahead of Mike Williams. I don't want any part of it. And there's several reasons why that you can look at. First of all, it sucks to be out on Darius Geist because he's a good player.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But the variables are stacked against him. You've got injury and then you had a setback to the same injury in his recovery. This is not just an ACL tear. This was an ACL tear plus an infection. You didn't have Adrian Peterson this, this time last year. You got a prolonged kind of recovery process where videos of him running straight were highlights. And I think he'll get back, but I don't know if it's going to be right now. I know you have a rotation in this offense too. Yeah. I don't even care that they spent a fourth round pick on Bryce Love. Whatever. You still got Adrian Peterson who ran for 1,000 yards. You still have Chris Thompson, who back in 2017 when he was healthy, he was in on 33% of the snaps. The year before that he was in on 45% of the snaps. Now he's not going to do that again, but you give him 20, 25% of the snaps and all of a sudden Darius Guy is an occasional rotational. Get him in there, see if he's healthy, see what he doesn't do. You got AP and Guy competing. I just don't want any part of that. So unfortunately because of the draft capital, he's just a bust. And who's the quarterback?

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Haskins, Keenum, Colt. Are they on the goal line very often where you're going to get anything out of a rotational player? I, I wanted him to be a breakout but he's a bust.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I really believe it. It's, to me it's, it's very interesting that people are willing to go into the, into the fifth round, into the fifth round with Darius guys when similar to, to Sony Michelle, like if you are not winning then Darius Geist, even if he has that two down roll, if you're not winning then Darius Geist is probably not on the field very much.

[Andy Holloway]

People draft players like Darius guys because they don't want to draft players like Matthew Stafford. And what I mean is, the. Has been the Lamar Millers, the guys that have been through it, it's not fun. Nobody wants to go draft them again. You want to draft Darius, guys, because you want to believe that he's a top. He could be a top five. He's never played an NFL down. That's the truth. Never played a regular season down in the.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you're swinging for the fences, hoping you've got something that's fun. It's fun for the Redskins right now with the. The depth chart, his pass catching ability, the injury. I. I'm shocked. Like, like, when you say Darius, guys, that's your bus, I'm like, well, duh. Like, of course he's a bus. But the. The reality is people are drafting him ahead of Lamar Miller, ahead of. Of other guys, ahead of David Cohen.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they're really?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

The dinosaur hunter. All right, it is live mailbag time. Get your voices ready. If you wanted the live Mailbag, we have some people that have been picked out for live Mailbag. The microphone's coming out. You can go line up. It's live mailbag time.

[Mike Wright]

First come, first serve.

[Andy Holloway]

I hope you're ready.

[Mike Wright]

Are you ready? Are you ready, Chicago? I said, are you ready?

[Andy Holloway]

I think they're ready.

[Mike Wright]

All right, here we go.

[Jason Moore]

Mailbag.

[Mike Wright]

They were ready.

[Andy Holloway]

That was that. I'm gonna say this. I don't know if it alienates other cities. Best one we've heard all year. Number one. Number one.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know if it alienates other cities, but I no longer have eyebrows.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we're in the mailbag. We got our first question. What's your name? Come up. Ask a question.

[Jason Moore]

Hello, my name is Tyler.

[Mike Wright]

Hey, Tyler.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for coming to Chicago, by the way. This isn't incredible. Awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you so much.

[Mike Wright]

Be here.

[Jason Moore]

I have joined an auction league this year. Oh, first one. My question is, what landmines do I need to look out for? What. What mistakes? What. What are the big mistakes that I could make on my first ever auction draft?

[Andy Holloway]

That's a great question.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And there are mistakes to be made in your first auction draft.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, definitely. I feel like when I did my first auction, where I feel like I went wrong is I gotten to a point where I felt desperate and there would players would come up and I would look at my roster and just start freaking out. Like, I, if I don't get this guy, I'm not getting anybody. So I gotta. You get in this bidding war over a mid tier player that you've just. You don't. You shouldn't be spending your money on. But then you get caught up in that ebay situation where you see that's.

[Andy Holloway]

Where you got the CUCO jersey.

[Mike Wright]

It's true. When you see someone click that button, you're like, oh, no. Oh, not today. I'm going to get that player. And you end up overpaying for a player because you, you bought into the excitement of the room. And instead of staying with your strategy of, of really having your. Your tier of players, knowing when you actually have to pan it.

[Andy Holloway]

And I would say don't nominate the guys you want. Sit back a little bit in your first one. Let other people nominate players.

[Mike Wright]

If you're new to auction, they have.

[Jason Moore]

All been, it's a keeper auction, which is weird.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. No, I'm only doing it because I.

[Jason Moore]

Get my homes for cheap.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Because my other tip. Sorry. If you're in an auction draft with new people, don't wait. You can get played because everyone who's. If you're new to auction, then it's similar to players who are new to fab. They are afraid to spend the money. So it's like a bell curve where the early round, the early nominated guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Actually go cheaper because everybody else is the 11 people freaking out and desperate.

[Mike Wright]

So if you're playing with new people in auction, don't be afraid to bid a. What? Spend up.

[Jason Moore]

Win them all. Yeah, yeah, I agree. The other thing I would say a mistake that's commonly made is buy. Like if you miss out on that first guy in the tier, you know, you're like, oh, there's this next tier of guys. I want one of these four guys or something. If you miss out on that first one, don't wait for the last one. The last guy in the tier always costs more than the second guy in the tier because everybody's going, oh, shoot, that tier is about to be over. I've got a bid up. So once that first guy goes for, you know, top dollar, the next few are usually where the value is found. And then a couple later you go, they're even more expensive. So I, you know, that's, that's where I like to find. Spend my money.

[Andy Holloway]

Thanks for the question.

[Jason Moore]

Appreciate it, boys.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

Next question.

[Andy Holloway]

What's up, ballers?

[Jason Moore]

I'm Austin.

[Mike Wright]

Austin, what's going on, man? You got to talk into the microphone.

[Jason Moore]

Will do.

[Andy Holloway]

Will do.

[Jason Moore]

So I'm in it.

[Mike Wright]

You got to talk.

[Jason Moore]

Embarrassing situation. The last three years, I have been the Brian Ketron. But do you Have. Thank you, sir.

[Mike Wright]

That was so loud.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Any advice?

[Andy Holloway]

Three years in a row, though. He deserves it.

[Jason Moore]

And bringing home that hashtag Foot Clan.

[Mike Wright]

Title, Give up those great advice.

[Andy Holloway]

Out of curiosity, and this is a risky question. How long have you been listening to the show?

[Jason Moore]

Three years. Hey, getting to the title. Yeah, getting to the title is very good.

[Andy Holloway]

Three years. You listen to Jason. I would switch it up. Mike and myself. Either one.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's. That's. That's absolutely great. Look, unless you. Unless you're in a money league. Honestly, unless you're in the money league where it's paid out first through third, if you. It's Ricky Bobby, man. If you're not first, you're last. Who cares if you're second place? Like you. You play for first place.

[Andy Holloway]

And look, remember Jason's super team.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I do remember the super team Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Things happen. If you apply the same principles that, you know, you hear on the show.

[Mike Wright]

Or that have work, be very active in season, you can't play.

[Andy Holloway]

That's where you can't play. Scared.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Of the same thing happening.

[Jason Moore]

Now, did you have a question or.

[Andy Holloway]

Invite Brian Ketron into your league?

[Jason Moore]

Just. I'm a loser. Oh. Oh, that's a great idea.

[Andy Holloway]

That's step one.

[Mike Wright]

How many you got an open league kit. There's Brian Ketcher.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, everyone boo Brian. Everyone boo him.

[Andy Holloway]

Apparently when you lose in the listener league, you get to come on tour.

[Mike Wright]

So he might have some space and he can join your league.

[Jason Moore]

Next question.

[Andy Holloway]

Thanks for coming to Chicago Ballers. My name is Daniel.

[Mike Wright]

Lean into the microphone. It's not just a little.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't be afraid of it. My question relates to startup Dynasty leagues. What round are you taking a gamble on Tyreek Hill this year?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, my goodness. Next question. Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

No, it's a. That's a. Look, the. The topic. Obviously, we don't, you know, it's not fun to talk about, but that's an important question that a lot of Dynasty owners are saying. Now, I would say this. It's totally 100% fine to just take them off your board. Say, I'm not going in at all. And not because of just risk, but just because of. I don't want. I don't want to deal with that.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

But if you. If you're saying, I want the value, where does he become a value? Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

I think right now people are taking that risk. In the fourth round.

[Mike Wright]

I was going to say in the fifth round. I mean, there are so many variables.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, he was the number one wide receiver in certain formats last year. But then you just have so much unknown and what we do know, and I could say I don't know what your confidence level is. I think he gets 10 games minimum. So you're buying a dynasty player with a checkered pass that's not going to be there for 10 games. I don't know if I want to spend anything close to a fourth round pick there.

[Jason Moore]

I mean I. Look, if he gets suspended 10 games, if you're just talking fantasy points, he's probably, he's worth it. He's worth losing. Because if he's one of those top five wide receivers and he's playing, you know, future years with Pat Mahomes, but he carries risk. I mean that's one thing. Like let's say, let's say it comes out before your draft that he's suspended eight games. So you know, and you know he's back on the field come week nine or week 10 if they've got an early buy. He still carries risk for being a bonehead in the future and losing his entire career. So yeah, maybe, maybe that's where you go. I'm going to push it back another round.

[Andy Holloway]

Out of curiosity, if you were drafting is he on your board? Is he off your board? Do you have not worry about thinking about that?

[Mike Wright]

I mean it would have to be very late because the other variable is his contract. Like he was, he was moments away from being the highest paid wide receiver in football and then he was an idiot again.

[Andy Holloway]

So both understatements.

[Mike Wright]

So he's in a contract year. So if, let's say he gets 10 games, even if he comes back and do and is great for the Chiefs in those final six games, what kind of contract do you give him? Do you franchise him? Do you let him go to a different team because Tyree Kill not paired with Patrick Mahomes, that's gonna be, that's a very, very different fantasy assets.

[Andy Holloway]

Plus Jason would tell you Sammy Watts is going to just take those first of all obviously, so hopefully that helps a little bit. It's all about risk aversion.

[Jason Moore]

Thanks. Next question.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, is this a Cubs fan or a Colts fan? It locals go cold.

[Mike Wright]

Why is it red?

[Andy Holloway]

But if he's, if he, if you picked him up and turned him sideways, all the Chicago fans would be happy. What's up? What's your name? Taylor. My question pertains to quarterbacks. So starting in a new dynasty league this year, we're trying to emphasize the quarterback position. We've got a Super Flex going this year? Okay, what are some of your favorite quarterback settings that you guys have kind of dealt with throughout the years?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean a lot of, A lot of teams want. A lot of leagues want their quarterback to be the leader of the franchise. Right. And so that's why you go Super Flex, make the position more important. Important. I think the new norm is starting to be six point touchdowns over four point, which used to be the standard. In fact, platform wise, it is it Paging sleeper.

[Mike Wright]

Paging Sleeper. The, the, the setting I haven't played with that I want to be able to play with.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Sleeper. Come on.

[Mike Wright]

Is that a rushing yard for a quarterback? One point is 25 yards, just 25 passing. Yes, that's what I want.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I know you both want that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

No, because we, we want Tim Tebow to be real valuable for fantasy because he's great.

[Jason Moore]

Vince Young should totally be a top because he's quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

He's a great quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you surfers talking me down? What is the.

[Jason Moore]

Hey guys, look, it's really.

[Andy Holloway]

With me in 25 yard, it's really.

[Jason Moore]

Dumb that quarterbacks get more for rushing than for passing. Agreed. But, but that's not a platform option right now that I know of on any platform. So I would, I would say six point quarterback passing, minus two for interception. Super Flex is super in there you.

[Mike Wright]

Go so hot right now.

[Jason Moore]

It's.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, there's not, there's not a huge amount I've played where a. If a quarterback takes a sack, he loses, loses a point, which by the end of the year everyone in the league hated it. So it, there's. I wouldn't play with it very much, but having the Super Flex is, I think, key for your dynasty.

[Andy Holloway]

League. Right on. Yeah, thank you.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you. Next question.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, he's serious. Oh, he pulled the microphone out. Very confident.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, this is Rocky from Chicago.

[Jason Moore]

I have a question about deciphering coach speak. How do you distinguish a coach hyping up a player versus a coach legitimately saying that a player is going to be involved in an offense.

[Mike Wright]

Step one is the coach. Pete Carroll, maybe I was going to.

[Andy Holloway]

Say it's very simple. If you have the player, it's totally true. No, I mean generally one thing to look out for and you know, we talk hype train throughout the off season. If there's a bad thing being said.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Pay close attention to it because you know, the beat writers, the coaches, the offensive coordinator, they want these players, Devonte Parker, year after year, they want them.

[Mike Wright]

To be king of the off season?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, absolutely. Have you seen him lately?

[Mike Wright]

It's the off season.

[Andy Holloway]

He's great, number one. But I would say pay real close attention to anything negative that you hear about a player's performance or not picking up the offense or, you know, those type of things.

[Jason Moore]

Coach speak when it comes to like, oh, this is good. This is just cool. He's doing great. It's. It's pretty worthless. I mean, generally, it's worthless. The coach speak that I like to listen to is sometimes never the head coach. It's the positional coach, the quarterback coach, the wide receiver coach. That. That just accidentally gives a little bit too knowledge about what the skill, what the scheme is going to be. I pay far more attention to beat writers and people who are watching, you know, the open mini camps and the open training camp and those things who are reporting on what's happening versus head coaches saying, if a player is having.

[Andy Holloway]

A good offseason, yeah, formation changes positions in the. In the offense, when they move guys around, coming into the slot, moving out. Those are things to pay attention to. Mike, you always talk about, yeah, I got the weight. The weight of different players, sure.

[Mike Wright]

But two other tips that I wanted to bring up. Number one, if a coach is asked about a different player or asked about player X, but he brings up player Y, Y, I pay attention to that. And then the second one is ignore article headlines. Because if you're. If you live on the Internet, your job is to get someone to click. And as much as I like sharing puff pieces like Dante Moncrief is the one that, that, that could bring up right now, which I love Dante Moncrief.

[Andy Holloway]

Now I gotta find the job.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, thank you, Moncrief. So there was recently, there was a hype. There was a Rota World headline of slam dunk of Dante Moncrief. Oh, no, this one was Big Ben talking about Moncrief. But if you actually read the article, you would find out that his words, while they were compliments, it wasn't worth a headline. That's. That's featuring Dante Moncrief. So be careful of the headlines. Make sure you read through what's actually being said.

[Andy Holloway]

You remember when we had Nick Mangold on the show and we tried Professional Football Center?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

We tried to talk to him about one of the running backs.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, we talked. Was it for.

[Andy Holloway]

Was it. It was either Forte or Ivory.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And. And he totally just didn't want to talk about him at all. Yeah, he definitely. Well, let me tell you about Bilal Pal. Because he changed the topic, changed the subject to a different player. So that's, that's a good piece of advice.

[Mike Wright]

That was Powell's big year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. All right.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you, sir.

[Jason Moore]

Is this. Last question. Last question.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, guys, what's. Nate. So what's your favorite style of. You know, when it comes to non traditional settings?

[Mike Wright]

Non traditional settings. So I haven't played it yet, but I, I brought it up on a, a recent show.

[Jason Moore]

Your tier base.

[Mike Wright]

But the idea of tiered based PPR where maybe a 5 yard reception shouldn't be worth a point just because you caught the ball two yards off. Oh, my man. My new best friend in the crowd.

[Andy Holloway]

He likes that round of applause.

[Mike Wright]

A player who had to make a difficult catch down the field of 25 yards. Maybe that one should be worth more just when you're talking about the catch, not the yard. So I think that's a very interesting scoring setting that I'm, I'm very enthusiastic to try out this year.

[Jason Moore]

I'm a big proponent of getting a point for first down. Yeah, those, those are really fun because, you know, not, not every reception like you're saying matters, but every first down matters for the team. It's. It's far more important whether if they got a one yard reception on third down that got them the first down, that should be rewarded.

[Mike Wright]

Instead of the running back on third and 15 who just runs five yards down the field, catches the ball and then gets hit.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's a, it's a much broader conversation. We don't have it here tonight, but when. When technology and the platforms allow for so many different variations, it makes it. I like keeping, you know, I'm the old man in the rocking chair.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Touchdowns only.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to keep the quarterbacks running the same amount of yards, but I like that because then we're on the same level when we talk about it. So I like being able to talk about the commonalities of those things. Now, is your name Christopher? That is true. We have, we have great news for.

[Mike Wright]

You because presented by Pristine Auction, he is the winner.

[Andy Holloway]

Give it up for Christmas.

[Mike Wright]

You are the winner of the signed Mitchell Trubisky helmet. And if you're not seeing this thing on the YouTube, you're missing out. This thing is bling, blinging, chromed out.

[Jason Moore]

This is beautiful.

[Andy Holloway]

You should go give it to him, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Do I have that helmet's either worth 30 fantasy points points or two fantasy points, depending on the week.

[Andy Holloway]

And the quarterback rushing yardage.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Congratulations, man.

[Andy Holloway]

That's how you're going to end the show.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's right. I did it.

[Andy Holloway]

A shout out to Pristine Auction for their partnership with us. Throughout the tour. You guys have heard us talk about them. Great people, great company. You're welcome. And we also again want to thank St. Jude for their partnership on this tour and the Ultimate Draft Kit, which you can get@ultimate draft kit.com A dollar of every purchase goes straight to St. Jude throughout June, July, August on into the season. And a last reminder to those listening at Home, Ballers Live, New York next week, San Francisco, Louisiana and Phoenix. Ballerslive.com Yes, I know you don't live there. You don't live there. Are you having fun?

[Mike Wright]

They've got bad weather.

[Andy Holloway]

Can other people have fun? Thank you so much.

[Mike Wright]

Foot Classic. And if you're listening at home, guess what? We love you too. We'll see everybody next time. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the ffballers. And don't forget about Turo. If you are looking to rent a car, Turo is the largest car sharing marketplace in the world. You can book any kind of car you want, from exotic sports cars to pickup trucks. They have the widest selection of cars available anywhere. Just download the Turo app. It's T u r O on the App Store or Google play. Or visit turo.com and you get $25 off your first trip. When you sign up with the promo code Footballers at checkout. Terms apply.