
Mike is back! It’s another new episode of The Fantasy Footballers Podcast as Andy, Jason, and Mike each choose early Sleepers & Values for the 2019 fantasy season. Plus, which Vikings player are you most likely to pick in your fantasy football drafts? P
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Andy Holloway
What an incredible show. We're about to have sleepers and values for fantasy football. Mike is back in the house. This is going to be awesome. If you're just joining us, want to make sure everyone knows the Ultimate Draft Kit is also out. It is up, it is for your use right now and we have an app this year on both the Android Store and the App Store. Go check it out. Ultimate Draft Kit.com youm will not be sad. Hi, this is Kyle from Lancaster, California from the League of Fort Knox and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Jason Moore
Welcome back.
Mike Wright
Thank you.
Andy Holloway
Good to be back.
Mike Wright
He does exist, America.
Jason Moore
Oh, we thought it would never happen.
Mike Wright
Honestly, there was a part of me that thought I was stuck. Like I had moved. I live here now and the place that I live was actually the airport.
Jason Moore
Yeah, we did mention that on the show. Welcome back, Mike. Jason is here.
Mike Wright
Ever seen that movie Back Together Terminal?
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
Look, I was almost that man.
Jason Moore
But you know the difference between you and Tom Hanks, Mike? I mean they're only.
Mike Wright
I'm attractive.
Jason Moore
There are only a couple of. Take that Tom Hanks back with a vengeance. You had your children at the airport as well. Tom Hanks didn't have to deal with none of that.
Mike Wright
Yeah, well, because honestly, if I didn't have to deal with the family and the children, I would have. I just would have stayed there.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Airport life.
Jason Moore
Welcome back. Welcome to our Sleeper and Value early sleeper and Value show today. You can find us on Twitter at the ffballers YouTube.com the fantasy footballers and the Instagram at the pictures flying on the Instagram videos too. Brooks. Brooks handles the gram. Instagram.com fantasy footballers handles the gram. Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah. That's what the kids say.
Mike Wright
There's a video up right now of you and Jason epic high fiving.
Jason Moore
There was some epic shuffleboard that took place with Mike out of town. Jason and I went on a run.
Andy Holloway
11 game winning streak.
Jason Moore
Yeah. And there is a gift now. Did you ever. Is that where it's at? It's on Instagram. Brooks, did you tweet that too? I did tweet that as well. Well, it's worth worth tweeting. A reminder, tomorrow we'll be in Chicago. Ballers Live live podcast tour begins in Chicago at Thalia Hall. If you want tickets, ballerslive.com we'll be in New York the week after, then San Francisco, LA and Phoenix Ballerslive.com for tickets. Come hang out, be part of a live show. Live mailbag, live mailbag drop featuring you. Oh, yes, it'll be a lot of fun. All right, get into it. Quick question of the day. Brooks is calling this team adp. Pick them. So we're going with the Vikings today. Which Vikings player are you most likely to draft at their current adp? Their current average draft position in a half point per reception league. Who are you most likely to draft? Dalvin Cook at 205. Adam Thielen at 301. Stefan Diggs at 401. Kirk Cousins right now going at 1209. Kyle Rudolph, 1312. Alexander Madison. Barely said his name properly because you.
Mike Wright
Were going to sing it.
Andy Holloway
Alexander Madison.
Jason Moore
Well, I got thrown off a little because he's actually ahead of Rudolph. 1307. Take your pick.
Andy Holloway
Look, this is, this is like hard for me to do because for the last several years I have been Mr. Adam Thielen, especially when it comes to the Thielen versus Diggs. I'm on record saying this year I am.
Jason Moore
You Wish you were Mrs. Adam Thielen?
Andy Holloway
I mean, I do and I still believe I can be with a little bit more diet. You just got to believe and work out.
Jason Moore
Probably should shave the beard, but go on.
Andy Holloway
You know, the. And so the reality is I thought that Stefan Diggs, like he's done the last several years will by the time we get closer to the season, he'll overtake Adam Thielen and ADP or they'll be back to back. But right now, if Stefan Diggs is a whole entire round after Adam Thielen and you're talking about a guy who's going to be a top 24 wide receiver for sure, has the ability to be a top 12 wide receiver in the fourth round, I think Diggs is probably the guy from the Vikings that I will personally end up with if the average draft position holds where it is right now.
Jason Moore
So the question was, which Vikings player are you most likely to draft at their adp? When I looked at this list, Diggs was the one that jumped out as the best potential value. That being said, I'm most likely to draft Dalvin Cook. I've drafted him in several drafts. He's going at 205 in the second round. So I'm feeling very comfortable about that position. I think you're talking about a player that at the end of the season could have been worth a first round pick that I get in the middle of the second round. So he's the most likely player for me to draft being a running back heavy type of drafter. So Mike, what about you? I was kind of surprised that this was your answer.
Mike Wright
Yeah, my answer of this list is the most likely is Alexander Madison. And I have, I have this weird fud. I feel like a fudster.
Jason Moore
I don't even know what that is.
Mike Wright
Fud, Fear, uncertainty and doubt.
Jason Moore
Oh.
Mike Wright
And now I know it's most most commonly talked about when people are, you know, they're trying to spread misinformation about other companies and things like that. But I am just, I, I am, I see the world where all three of those top players are literally weak winning or league winning type of players. David Cook could easily skyrocket if he stays healthy. He's been amazing on the field. Adam Thielen's first half, Stefan Diggs still has that potential. But I also easily see the world where they all disappoint at the exact same, at the exact same time. And Alexander Madison was, he was one of the rookie running backs that I was very interested in. He popped in my production model out of Boise State. He's not necessarily, he doesn't explode in any particular part of his game. He's just to me a well rounded running back and I think that opportunity is going to knock for him at some point with like, they've already talked about him. They want him to be the Latavius Murray for this offense, which is, I mean that's kind of the obvious thing right away for the Vikings to say. But they spent a third round pick on the guy they had a huge need at running back. Dalvin Cook is not the healthiest person in football throughout his entire career.
Jason Moore
Would you. So when you say, I mean in all likelihood you're not actually drafting Madison, you're likely.
Mike Wright
I am actually. Like I've been in, I'm in the midst of many industry mocks and I find myself grabbing Alexander Madison in the double digit rounds and basically all of them.
Jason Moore
Does it feel like you're grabbing the equivalent value of like what Latavius was last year in Minnesota, but you're getting him for free?
Mike Wright
Yeah, basically.
Jason Moore
Okay, makes sense. I mean Cook, regardless of how good he is, there needs to be another piece of the puzzle. If you believe the team's going to run the ball more, it's not going to only be Cook. So the draft capital says pay attention to Madison. All right. Jason mentioned the ultimate draft kit. You should hop in and check out a brand new video. Mr. Matthew Harmon. Oh, Dropped a brand new introduction to the 2019 Reception Perception Project. A lot of people look, you understand what rankings are and you understand the tiers and you understand these other components of the draft kit, but maybe you don't know the practical value of the reception perception data that's inside it is proprietary to the ultimate draft kit. It has been put together by Matt Harmon over a series of several years of just many moons charting. I think he says in the video, 50,000 routes at this point, he has viewed so a lot of data and information, but he also clues you in on how to best use it to prepare for your fantasy football draft. So check that out atultimatedraftkid.com. let's get into the news.
Andy Holloway
News and notes from around the league presented by sleeper.
Jason Moore
Yeah, the footballers. We reached an agreement with Mike the fantasy hitman. Right. To bring him back into the fold after a long absence. He. This has all been a ruse. He wasn't trapped in any airport. He was holding out. His agent reached out to us. Jay Grizz made a compelling proposal as well.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, the early reports are Jay Grizz is really unhappy that we brought Mike back. But, you know, somebody called it.
Jason Moore
Somebody called him the depth chart assassin Jay Grizz now.
Mike Wright
Oh, that's a throwback.
Jason Moore
There were rumors that he gave some phone calls to the airline is why. So this being. That being said, Mike, when you left, it was hat week. You still got a hat on.
Mike Wright
Well, here's the thing.
Jason Moore
Have you found any somebody to cut your hair yet?
Mike Wright
Here's the thing.
Jason Moore
This is no, there's no way.
Mike Wright
Look, I wouldn't. I was on vacation.
Jason Moore
That's true.
Mike Wright
I'm not gonna spend my vacation time getting a haircut. And then I was trapped on vacation. And now we have this live show. I'm. I am in a quite a pickle.
Jason Moore
If you come out on the Chicago live show with a hat, I will be very entertained.
Andy Holloway
I hope he comes out bald. I hope he Chicago live show.
Jason Moore
I'm going 10 gallon. I want to see a 10 gallon on the live show.
Mike Wright
I literally was talking to my wife about this. Of like, when you're complaining about all the problems, I'm trapped. I got this show Friday. I got my stupid hair. I got to figure out this is a problem. So, Chicago, get ready for hat live show.
Jason Moore
Hat live show. All right, espn, there's been some talk not just about Michael Thomas, but also about Julio Jones and the contract situations for both players. The Saints coming out and saying, hey, they're willing to make Michael Thomas the highest played wide receiver in the game. Talk about Julio Jones's contract and optimism that it gets done before camp. There's been talk of A.J. green's contract. So let me just throw this out there for fantasy owners. In all three of those circumstances, how does the contract situation translate to how you view. View these players for fantasy, specifically Michael Thomas, Julio Jones and A.J. green.
Andy Holloway
Michael Thomas, it's irrelevant to me. He's young, he's going to get paid. There's no. No question. A.J. green and Julio, on the other hand, I'm much more. I'm anticipating these contracts and these signings and they're going to make an impact for dynasty. I think of the three, it's definitely A.J. green. That's the most worrisome. He's got, you know, he's older for a wide receiver. He's got toe problems and this.
Jason Moore
Are you describing Julio Jones? Are you describing A.J. green?
Andy Holloway
I could be describing.
Jason Moore
I think those are the same exact.
Andy Holloway
I could be describing either, but I'm describing the one who missed several games last year and is in a tumultuous situation with a franchise that is changing head coach, changing who knows how long. Andy Dalton will be the quarterback. They are they very well halfway through this season. Could say we're in rebuild. We're in. We've got to rebuild. You know, we've got some, some pieces in Joe Mixon. We got our new head coach that we like, but we're going to blow this thing up.
Jason Moore
So that's not good for A.J. green.
Andy Holloway
Exactly. If he gets a long term contract signed before the start of this year, his dynasty outlook is much better.
Jason Moore
I agree.
Mike Wright
And Julio's still got two years left on his contract. I'm actually a little surprised that there's so much hullabaloo going on with Julio right now.
Jason Moore
He's not in the same boat as Green.
Andy Holloway
No.
Mike Wright
Green's in a contract year. Julio was signed through 2020, but he wants more money.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, well, we all want more money.
Mike Wright
Am I right, America?
Jason Moore
Yeah. Hey, guess what?
Mike Wright
What?
Jason Moore
The chin. The Chin has retired.
Mike Wright
Oh, man.
Jason Moore
I just. This news broke came through on Sleeper while Jason and I were enjoying some Lunch and Josh McCown retired after 17 seasons. Played for 10 different teams. He was the first quarterback I ever saw play football live. That tells you how long he's been in the league. He was the Cardinals quarterback in 2002. He has one of the greatest chins in history. Sure. Both in ways than one.
Andy Holloway
Yes. Literal and figurative.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
In the boxer sense.
Andy Holloway
He can take a Hit.
Mike Wright
Yeah, he, his career is so bizarre and just improbable of, you know, it drafted to be maybe a starter and had to start with when the Arizona Cardinals were an absolute dumpster heap of a team. They like, they were the laughing stock. Dan kind of was a journeyman. Took a, took a year off the Chicago. I don't know if you guys remember the Chicago Bears. The Bears had to lure him out of retirement and that was like eight years before. And that was the huge resurgence when he was in Chicago and like he was a fantasy waiver studio.
Jason Moore
He has a very similar on the field situation as I view Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is, you know, no more competent backup in the last 10 years than Josh McKeown or Ryan Fitzpatrick. When they're on the field, you're kind of, you're like, oh, maybe that's even good for their receivers as opposed to bad, you know, when the starter goes out. So congrats on a wonderful career, well respected player. And he joins ESPN as an analyst. A couple bits of hype news. Let's start in Pittsburgh, report out of the Athletic.
Mike Wright
This is the best hype train of all time, guys.
Jason Moore
Well, I, the Pittsburgh one, just both of these comments. Well, Dante Moncrief slapping the bass. Diabayan Moncrief, they say a slam dunk. That he's the number two wide receiver.
Mike Wright
Looks like a slam dunk.
Jason Moore
Looks like a slam dunk. Do you believe he's a slam dunk, Mike?
Mike Wright
He absolutely looks like it. We're actually going to be talking about Dante Moncrief later in this show.
Jason Moore
Well, let's table that then.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
Let's talk about something a little bit better.
Mike Wright
Even better. Let's go.
Jason Moore
It makes perfect sense that Mike.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
Would be even more excited about this player than anybody else. And we'll get to that. But you know, some, some hype about.
Mike Wright
Mo Ali Cox now we call him Gigantor.
Jason Moore
We call him Gigantor on this show.
Mike Wright
If you don't know who Mo Ali Cox is, don't feel bad because I would be shocked if you really were paying attention to him.
Jason Moore
He six, five.
Mike Wright
I didn't know who he was until 67, until last year, preseason. I'm watching the Colts. Then there is a man who is standing literally three heads above everyone else on the team. I go, who is that guy? He is enormous. Then you find out, oh, he plays tight end. He plays one of the quote skill positions.
Andy Holloway
He's enormous. And the six, five, two, six. Get out of here.
Mike Wright
That's garbage. He is seven eight.
Jason Moore
He is seven feet eight inches tall, at least 600 pounds. Runs, runs a four, 140.
Andy Holloway
I mean when there's, when there are 22 NFL players on the field, several of them are six, five. Oh lineman, you got, you got a bunch. And then there's this one guy that walks on that's like he's actually.
Jason Moore
It's been confirmed he's one of the Monstars but Mo Ali Cox predicting a breakout season. Now see, here's what we know about Andrew Luck when we bring it back to fantasy and Molly Cox's giant head. Easy to target, but he's. He's going to be a red zone threat. He did score a couple times last year. Andrew Luck is. Has no qualms about throwing a large quantity of touchdowns to the tight end position. Wiley Cox, Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron will all see time on the field.
Andy Holloway
It's not good news for Ebron.
Jason Moore
That's more. You're not looking at Molly Cox as a fantasy threat. You're looking at him as an addition for Andrew Luck and as a threat threat to Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle's production at the position. Right?
Andy Holloway
Right.
Mike Wright
And to be fair, neither Jack Doyle or Eric Ebron, they're not practicing right now. The reason why Mo Ali Cox looks so awesome is because he's the starting tight end for that team as as it lays right now. And he's. He's humongous.
Andy Holloway
Guys, I can't stress this. He's so big. I mean if you're. We can't say it enough. He's gigantic.
Jason Moore
Now picture Mike's head which in and of its own right is also humongous. Renowned as being a larger than average head. If we look when we take gifted cranially when we get pictures it doesn't matter if Mike standing in the front or the back, he's in the foreground. The biggest of us now double that.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
And that's Molly Cox's head.
Mike Wright
No, that's the size of his hand.
Jason Moore
That was today's news and notes. A reminder Sleeper does not just break the latest fantasy news. They are also the best fantasy platform. As simple or as complex as you need your league to be, it is flexible. Download the sleeper app.
Mike Wright
Today they're doing the tiered ppr. I don't know if you follow me on Twitter. A few months ago we had talked to them someone had brought up this interest very interesting system for tiering the actual value of a reception. And it was just like this is a really cool idea. So I was talking with this person, retweeting their idea and Sleeper said, hey, we can do that.
Jason Moore
And then they did.
Mike Wright
And then they did. It's going to be an incredible experiment. Hey, before we move to the early sleepers, want to thank today's sponsor, Manscaped, the number one in men's below the belt grooming. Look.
Jason Moore
Whoa. Look, fellas, sensitive area, you gotta keep.
Mike Wright
It tight, you gotta keep it right. And that means you gotta groom yourself. And you go, you want to groom with the absolute number one. You use Manscaped. Like Andy said, it's a sensitive area. If, if, if you've been taking care of yourself, which I hope you have. We've all experienced the, the injuries, the injuries that can come from using an inferior product.
Jason Moore
Who am I kidding?
Mike Wright
It's more like, ah, yes, it's not a pleasant situation when the injury occurs. And that's why they're Lawn Mower 2.0. They have the proprietary skinsafe technology. This trimmer won't nick or snag. Accidents are finally a thing of the past. And look, you don't want to use the same trimmer you use for your face. Absolutely. And they got an anti chafing deodorant and moisturizer for this sensitive area as well. You got to use the right tool and manscaped is the way to be. And right now you can get 20% off plus free shipping and a free travel bag with the code footballersanscaped.com that's 20% off with free shipping@manscaped.com use the code footballers. Clean yourself up.
Jason Moore
Also, quick reminder before we jump into Sleepers to check out fantasychamps.com our friends@fantasy Champ, the best fantasy football trophies, fantasy football rings, draft boards, awards, plaques, whatever you need. Use the code ballers@fantasychamps.com they'll get you taken care of. Let's talk sleepers.
Andy Holloway
Sleepers.
Mike Wright
I forgot about that one.
Jason Moore
Yeah, it's pretty good. It's pretty good.
Mike Wright
Well, we come from the land of the ice and snow, Andy.
Jason Moore
Yes, yes. If you look up on our wall, that's a vintage sleeper up there. We've got to on the wall. Doing his famous sleeper touchdown celebration production team. He just didn't. Now they let you celebrate again. I mean, to was the reason they stopped it, him and Ochocinko. And then. And then they brought it back. He's coming out of retirement.
Mike Wright
But now they do team celebrations. Do you think Ochocinko and Terrell Owens would be about the team celebrations?
Jason Moore
They were Known as team players, Mike. That was what they were renowned for.
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Jason Moore
All right, we're into. We're each going to pick an early sleeper, defend or make the case for that player and then we'll give an early value as well. Do we have volunteers? Who wants to go first here?
Mike Wright
I'll jump in here. My early sleeper. I want to highlight this player that is the Bird alert himself. Albert Wilson. He is a reception perception superstar. Has been for quite some time. He is.
Jason Moore
There might be people right now saying, who does he play for, Mike?
Mike Wright
So Albert Wilson plays for the Miami Dolphins. He had. He kind of came up in the league for the Chiefs. Got a, you know, not. Not a huge contract, but for a player of his caliber, got a nice contract to come in for Miami. He did suffer a pretty major injury last year where people were thinking, we don't even know if he's going to return to football. But all signs point to him being 100% on track to start the season. And I want to highlight a few things for Albert Wilson, his opportunity. Miami cleaned house. They brought in an entirely new regime. Yes, maybe they're trusting the process, but they did not draft a single wide receiver. And this could definitely be a team you look at and say, well, that team seemed like they needed to invest some capital in a wide receiver. They were able to bring back Devonte Parker at a bargain deal for him. And it's. It's Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson and Devonte Parker. Those are the big three guys. He has four, four speed. If you saw him last year, he had a game where he absolutely went Hamburglar. Just huge. Three huge plays in this game in reception perception. Like I talked about, he scores in the 98th percentile of success versus zone. So if you try and put a zone defender on Albert Wilson, you're done. You are absolutely toast. He is going to make you pay. He excels in the short and intermediate game like a player. Julian Edelman. Why do I highlight that? Because of the new regime in Miami. They are trying to make south beach into South New England. Because they brought in. They just said, new England, send us your coaches with Brian Flores as their head coach. He's a defensive guy. That means the offense is going up to Chad O'Shea who spent the last 10 years as the wide receiver coach for the New England Patriots. Someone is going to. This is my belief, they are going to do their best to turn someone into a Julian Edelman style of player. Get Chad O'Shea has already said he's bringing that offense down the Quick timing, routes, and I don't think there's a better player fit on this team than Albert Wilson who fits that scheme. Yeah.
Jason Moore
No more Danny Amendola threat. The thing about Wilson, that is the complete distraction because I think the hype train would be through the roof on Wilson if you had his first half of the year of last year and you could put the injury out of your mind.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
The injury is the thing that, you know, the injury with how we're projecting the offense are the two points of pause for me.
Mike Wright
Absolutely.
Jason Moore
On excitement for Wilson. He'll probably. According to Matthew Betts in our ultimate draft, Kit says Wilson will probably be limited through the entire off season program. So will I ever have the guts to buy in? Mike? You think we should?
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that's the. That is the tough thing. A lot of times serious injuries, they take longer. You know, it's like, okay, however long it takes to be truly recovered.
Mike Wright
It was a hip injury. So if you were out there, you don't know what happened. He suffered a hip injury.
Andy Holloway
Sure. And it's one of those things where it's like, look, the NFL season starts when it starts. It doesn't give thought to your injury recovery. And that leads very rude. It is super rude. That leads into my sleeper because my sleeper was a guy who got a devastating injury. Torn Achilles for Deonta Foreman when he was looking. Starting to look awesome his rookie year. And that torn Achilles was on a.
Mike Wright
Was on a massive touchdown play.
Andy Holloway
Yes, it was. He had an awesome. I believe it was a touchdown reception.
Jason Moore
Broke away against Arizona.
Mike Wright
Yep.
Andy Holloway
And into the end zone. He fell with one Achilles attached to his body.
Jason Moore
It was a rough injury.
Andy Holloway
It was. And it was sad. And you know, the thing is about that injury is it's tough to come back from, especially for running backs. We have rarely seen running backs because there's a couple things that have to happen. You have to be young enough to where teams still want you. You have to be given an enormous timeline, which most of the time running backs don't. They just don't get that opportunity. Well, Deonta Foreman has the opportunity. He basically missed all of last year. He did get back last season. He was in the playoffs. I think he only had like three carries for negative 10 yards or something. Sure. I mean, but he wasn't there last year. That last year was him getting right. But look what the. The Houston Texans have done, right? I mean, they improved their offensive line or at least they hope to have in, I believe, small ways. They lost Alfred Blue. They did not bring in other running backs. It is Lamar Miller and Deonta Foreman. And ESPN recently wrote up an article about all 32 teams. Who was the camp star? Who was the, the surprising breakout player of each team's camp? And for the Houston Texans, it was Deonta Foreman, who everybody says looks amazing. Bill O'Brien has been talking him up and you have to go back to 2017 to remember what was happening. 2017, Deontiforman's rookie year, they started getting him more and more involved, getting him games with double digit carries. All of a sudden Lamar Miller looked like he was. His job was in jeopardy and then he tore his Achilles and Lamar Miller had the entire backfield last year and was the guy nobody's been excited about. Lamar Miller, Lamar Miller, he on his own. He provides a value for where he's being drafted, if he's the guy. But the reason why I believe in Deont Forman as a sleeper is because he's one of the rare guys that I don't believe. It requires an injury in front of him for him to actually come into fantasy relevance. He could win the job. He's truly 100% healthy. He's had like a almost two year recovery timeline. He's young and if you don't remember Deonta Foreman from when he was drafted in 2017, I loved him. You know, I love this tape. He had incredible college production. Kevin Cole, a great fantasy mind back in the day was working for Rotovis, had this great running back model, projection model that was really, I mean it was very accurate. It had a, just a great historical success rate. And Deonta Foreman in that model was the number one running back ahead of Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, Marla Mack, Aaron Jones, that group that those guys scored well. So my point is he's talented, he's got the opportunity. I believe it reminds me a little.
Jason Moore
Bit of the Dalvin Cook situation where combine wasn't as friendly to him. But what you saw on tape and what we saw in the field before the injury was pretty impressive.
Mike Wright
Sure. But he's, he's not a pass catcher though.
Andy Holloway
Well, I mean he was not a pass catcher in college at all. 100%, you're right. For some reason the Texans have talked him up as a good pass catcher. Bill O'Brien has said that he's a good pass catcher, but I mean we've seen, we've heard that with, you know, Jordan Howard and things like that. So take it for what you will. I. That Is a, that is definitely a question mark but he's a guy that's going super late or virtually undrafted and.
Jason Moore
Round Deonta Foreman 10th round right now Lamar Miller is going in the six.
Andy Holloway
And in a dynasty league. Look, I know some people maybe they drafted and they held on because they're. They super believe in them and you're not going to pry them away. Some people are like I don't care about this backup who got negative yards last year. See if you can buy him cheap.
Mike Wright
I mean I'm with you that it's when you can get a running back in the, in the double digit rounds who has the potential to usurp the, the, the quote starter like Deontay Foreman. So one, he's going to be on a, he's going to be on a high powered offense. The Texans are going to score a lot of points as long as Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins are on the field. If wat or if Foreman can steal even just the goal line role and you have a great backup running back.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
And the definition that we give for a sleeper is a player who is either not drafted or is drafted very late that are primed to emerge as a contributor, as an impact player, as somebody that can excel due to these reasons you brought up increased opportunity or the scheme change or the circumstance you're talking about a player that is not hyped is drafted much later in drafts. Mike, you just mentioned players that have the chance, the opportunity, the percentage chance to usurp. These are. It's a perfect transition because I was deciding between Curtis Samuel, I was deciding between him and Kalen Balaj for my personal. Yeah Balajim very similar and Bellaj is in that boat. I mean Kaylin Balaj is the late 13th round pick. Kenyon Drake is a 5th round pick. I have them projected for the same amount of carries this year. So that's my honorable mention of Calum Balaj and we'll talk more about him over the course of the offseason. It's not to say he's going to do it but there are only a certain number of players. It's why I like you know we'll talk about Royce Freeman in a little while. Same reason.
Andy Holloway
Yeah just to sneak in here like I do not believe in Calum Balaj. I don't think he's a good enough running back, doesn't have the moves and and I do believe in Kenyan Drake 100%. So like I'm on the other side but I still recognize the value that Kalen Balaj is in the draft because I could be wrong. It doesn't even matter. Maybe I could be right and the coaches, they want Bellage or they give him the opportunity. I completely agree with the idea that Caleb Lash is in a perfect situation to be able to be a great sleeper, have the opportunity and I could just be wrong on the well.
Jason Moore
And keep in mind, Kenyan Drake believes he's a lizard person.
Andy Holloway
No, no, he's one of them.
Jason Moore
No, he doesn't.
Andy Holloway
Oh, he's no Sammy Watkins, but I.
Jason Moore
Could have got you to take him right out of your breakout list. No, I'm going to go with Curtis Samuel. Curtis Samuel is one of my favorite sleeper picks. This is a former second round draft pick and I think what's interesting to look at is over the second half of last year, you know the hype is there for DJ Moore, right? DJ Moore is currently a 6th round draft pick in fantasy drafts and for good reason. DJ Moore is a very talented player. High draft capital, first round pick, first round pick. But Samuel was a second round pick and over the back half of last year. By the way, you can get Curtis Samuel in the 11th round right now and I don't think that's going to change. I really don't. They had equal targets last year over the second half. 57 targets, 58 targets, receptions 33 to 37. Curtis Samuel scored four touchdowns to DJ Moore's one. Similar receiving yardage. DJ Moore outpaced him a little bit. Fantasy points. Curtis Samuel was better. So when you look at that comparison, what you see on film, Curtis Samuel, he passes all the tests, reception, perception wise, very talented player, very good route runner. People look at him as the gadget guy. No, he's a great route runner. Huge opportunity right in Carolina for these guys to both emerge. I'll take the 11th round pick. The sleeper that showed out on the field versus the sixth round pick. If I have to flip that coin, I think that both guys have the chance to do well, but one of them's free for me. So that guy's Curtis Samuel. I think he's a great sleeper pick. I think he's got a great opportunity and I love identifying that what I'll call right here. The cheaper guess. Okay, give me the cheaper guess in Caleb Belange. Give me the cheaper guess in Curtis Samuel. So that's, that's my sleeper pick. Any thoughts on Curtis?
Mike Wright
I, I love the pick of Curtis Samuel. One being a sleeper. I will say I, I do believe his ADP will rise. Those industry mocks I was talking about, I know an industry mock versus a home league. These are very, very different things. But he basically averages out to be a mid 8th round pick. So it people are going to start picking up, they're going to get the fumes, the whiffs of the hype train for Curtis Samuels. I think he ends up in the single digit rounds before August really gets going.
Jason Moore
If we have anything to say about it, that will probably be the case.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. It is telling though that in the industry mocks, the people that, you know, do this for a living, they're much higher than the average draft price on Curtis Samuel. That alone is telling that they see something there, you know, talent and opportunity that has the potential to break out.
Jason Moore
And we have to remember too, before we get into the values and we talked about this a little in the office today with the Belange Kenyon Drake situation, there are so many factors in decision making here. It's not like the Carolina Panthers. They don't sit back and they go, man, we're going to give DJ Moore and we're going to give them 30% more opportunity this year because we spent a first round pick on him last year and two years ago Samuel was a second. That's not how you think. You're out there to win games, you're out there to produce. They don't care about your fantasy team. They don't, they don't care if DJ Moore is going higher in your draft and they don't care if, you know, if a team does view Kenyan Drake as a player who can't carry a high workload. They don't care about deficiency numbers if that's the perception. Now we don't know that to be the case with Balaj and Drake, and Drake is a hyper, talented player. But we just have to remember they're not, they're not looking through the same lens that we're looking through.
Andy Holloway
So stupid.
Jason Moore
I know. Let's get into the values.
Andy Holloway
Values.
Jason Moore
The energies. It's high, Mike.
Mike Wright
Look, those are some, some fire drops, fellas.
Jason Moore
All right, let's talk about some early value picks. Each of us selected one guy. Why don't you kick it off, Jason? Because it's a perfect little transition here.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, nice segue. Because Curtis Samuel, he does have talent coming into another year in the sense of DJ Moore, he's got talent coming into another year of the system. I think the wide receiving core for the Carolina Panthers, they've got Greg Olson back, they've got those two wide receivers, they've got Christian McCaffrey.
Jason Moore
Decent.
Andy Holloway
Cam Newton is an incredible value right now. He ended the year injured, obviously had the surgery on his shoulder in the off season and his last two games were basically he, he couldn't throw the ball more than 10 yards. They were taking him out on plays when they had to throw it deep. It was unbelievable. And look, I'm scooting. I'm scooting that booty.
Mike Wright
Oh.
Andy Holloway
I'm scooting that. Oh. Here's the reality. Cam Newton is one of the best fantasy football players or quarterbacks of all time. He never doesn't produce when he's on the field. Now you can worry about injuries, right? In his career when he plays 16 games, he has been a top four quarterback. The lowest he's been in a 16 game season is quarterback four. That's pretty doggone good. And he's right now being drafted as the 10th quarterback in the ninth round. I'm usually a double digit quarterback drafter, right? I wait till the 10th round and then I start looking. This year in the ninth round, I'm going to be looking for Cam.
Jason Moore
It's a shoulder sale.
Andy Holloway
You get a discount getting a discount on the shoulder sale. And I don't care about, I interest.
Mike Wright
You and a man with only one shoulder.
Andy Holloway
I don't care at all about the injury or the injury risk that Cam presents when, when I get my quarterback of the 9th or 10th, let's say he re injures it and he's out, whatever, I'll pivot. I expect that there's a good chance when I draft my 9th or 10th round quarterback, you don't scoot the position.
Jason Moore
You don't scoot your booty with your shoulder.
Andy Holloway
But here's the thing that's true. No, he's had this surgery before and came off of it for a career year and was amazing. What I care about is on a week by week basis, is this a guy that's going to dominate. And if you look at what he was doing last year before the shoulder injury, he was dominating eight of his first 11 games. If you go through, you know, week 12 where you know every team's had their bye week, he's, he had eight games as a top 10 quarterback. Do you want to know who else had eight games as a top 10 Quarterback? The list is Pat Mahomes, Cam Newton and no one else. Not Matt Ryan, who was great. Not Jared Goff, who had that incredible first half of the year. Not Brees, not Deshaun Watson or Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck. None of them had that kind of a rate, a percentage of their games played in the top 10. At quarterback. Cam Newton is a huge value in, you know, near double digit rounds and he's already past the shoulder surgery. He's already throwing full in many camps and you know, so he's going to go and have a full training camp, full preseason. I am all about Cam Newton this year.
Jason Moore
I feel like last offseason we spent a lot of time or I tried to spend a lot of time telling you he was going to run and he's not going to stop running. The case with Cam Newton is always eventually that will happen, right? Eventually, some year something will happen where Cam Newton's not going to do it for, you know, an infinite amount of time. But thus far you're right. I mean the proof is in the pudding. When he plays, he's great. When he doesn't play, doesn't put up numbers unfortunately. But when he plays he's been great and I think he's going to stay at a discount. There are too many other fantasy quarterbacks with glisten and gleam coming off of them. The Baker Mayfields, the Carson Wentz's. Not to say that he should necessarily go ahead of those guys, but because there's so many that are interesting. Right?
Andy Holloway
Even guys like Matt Ryan who finished number two last year, definitely going ahead of Cam in this year's startup.
Jason Moore
Yeah, you don't just have players like Drew Brees or they have, you know, Tom Brady sitting ahead of him in drafts. There's a lot of very young, attractive other options. So it makes him a value. I doubt he changes much before in fantasy drafts. Sure, I'll jump in. It's Royce Freeman. Royce Freeman is my early value pick and it would have given me nothing but joy to maintain my full Philip Lindsay fandom on into the off season. Loved him last year. Picked him up in every league. Enjoyed every moment of owning Philip Lindsay except for every very end of the season. But you got to stay water in fantasy. You've got to rotate your viewpoint. And this is another situation like Balaj and Drake where Royce Freeman. Royce Freeman's a high draft capital guy. Mike spent much of the off season talking up Royce Freeman last year.
Mike Wright
Stupid Philip Lindsay.
Jason Moore
I'm pretty sure he was a my guy for you last year.
Mike Wright
Yes, he was.
Jason Moore
And the thing is is the season didn't go the way we expected for Royce Freeman. But it wasn't all Royce Freeman's fault. He battled through injury throughout this season and Philip Lindsay was great. He showed up he showed out, he stole carries. But this is not the offense in Denver is going to be balanced between these players because Royce Freeman is good and that's why Royce Freeman still averaged for a carry in a season when he battled injuries. He is a patient runner. He breaks tackles in a way that you know, Philip Lindsay is evasive. Royce Freeman is violent. Royce Freeman, he's very strong and he faced eight in the box 36% of the time last year and you saw it, it was weird because when he got on the field he just didn't face the opposing front that Philip Lindsey faced last year. He's an 8th round pick and take this for what you will, but he's a fluid pass catcher. He is a flexible pass catcher. Cecilammy, who's based out of Denver, he's a very well respected fantasy name for years, but he especially knows the Denver, you know, he's on the Denver beat. Says he looks amazingly fluid as a receiver in camp. There's just some things that lined up against Royce Freeman last year. I believe that this offense which, look, there's renovation happening in Denver and I think Philip Lindsay is a great and talented player. But Royce Freeman is the one that I would say if I had to bet on one, putting up double digit touchdowns in the offense, like who's got the best odds of doing that? It's Royce Freeman. It's not Philip Lindsay to me. So as a value in the draft, I think you get guaranteed production with the Royce Freeman draft pick in the eighth round.
Mike Wright
All right, I'm jumping in here. We alluded to it at the beginning and the reason he hasn't been talked about in the past few shows is because I was gone and I didn't have a chance to spread my love yet again for Dante Moncrief. Moncrief, like Moncrief has had a very interesting career. He was a pretty high draft capital guy because he's an absolute physical freak. 6 2, 220 runs, a 4 4. Those guys, they don't grow on trees.
Jason Moore
Makes very impressive Instagram videos. It has great at the combine.
Mike Wright
Has a top three touchdown celebration in the league right now. And the problem with Moncrief is he has inflicted several fantasy wounds upon the community. He looked like he was absolutely poised for a breakout situation in Indianapolis. When his sophomore year he put up, he had over 100 targets, 64 receptions, over 700 yards and six touchdowns. Then the next year he was the app, he was the touchdown machine. If you were playing fantasy in 2016, you knew that if there was a week of football and the Colts were playing, that meant that Dante Moncrief was going to catch a touchdown. That's just what happened. But then he got hit by the injury bug and then he got hit by it again the next year to a point where if you're the Colts and you have this wide receiver who you think there's potential, but half of his career with you, he's just been injury plagued, you're not going to give him money, you're not going to resign him, you're going to move on. That's just what happens. Then he ended it looked like he had a death sentence for his career because he ended up in Jacksonville with Blake Bortles where he was still able to have not a great fantasy year, but a reasonably productive year as a receiver given his circumstances now, slightly better circumstances. He's landed in. In what I would say the best. The best situation that as a free agent he possibly could have landed it. He's in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. The Pittsburgh Steelers traded away their best wide receiver.
Jason Moore
He's in a giant target hole.
Andy Holloway
The best wide receiver.
Mike Wright
Yeah, the best wide receiver. He's got Big Ben. I would dare to say that is a huge upgrade over Blake Bortles. And even last year with Blake Bortles, when things were rough, he was still able to average about 14 yards per reception. He's still a big play guy. He's still an elite red zone option. And I look the first. I'll give credit to Matt Harmon because this is the first. That was the first place I heard the term coined of talking about the offseason drumbeat of a player. And that's what you need to follow. It starts to. The news starts to build. It seems like fluff pieces, it seems like hype, but it just continues to build upon itself. And I believe that's what's happening right now for Dante Moncrief. I mean, people want James Washington to be the number two guy for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He graded out as one of the absolute worst wide receivers in Pro Football Focus. The way that they chart guys. And so this is, this is an open job. This is. No one is locked in as the number two guy and Moncrief is going in double digit rounds absolutely free.
Jason Moore
Well, that, that part I like a lot. But I don't want to hear what you're not saying. It's not that Moncrief is stepping in to become, you know, a massive volume target player. It's that there's opportunity. And we, I think we talked about this last week, Jason, where it's like, okay, is it Moncrief, is it Deontay Johnson, is it James Washington? I think it's all of them. I think that's the truth. You don't replace Antonio Brown with one player. You probably don't replace him with two players.
Mike Wright
Please do not hear that. I think that Moncrief is replacing Antonio Brown.
Andy Holloway
I think the hope that he's replacing Martavis Bryant hope is that that role where Martavis Bryant was running nines along the sideline and was pretty darn valuable for fantasy when he was a Pittsburgh Steeler, that Dante Moncrief can establish himself as a go to deep threat guy.
Jason Moore
But I worry about him being the Fulton Reed of the NFL next year where it's one in every five games. I'm like, yeah baby, it certainly could be. And then it rotates to somebody else.
Mike Wright
It absolutely could be. The thing is I'm just, I am willing to take the chance that I get the number two wide receiver for Pittsburgh in historically speaking before JuJu, it was really just one wide receiver. Would be. Would put up elite production for Big Ben. So I'm not saying that I think Moncrief is coming in and he's turning into a top 15 wide receiver. But to get a guy who, if he is the number two guy for, for Big Ben, I think it's pretty locked and loaded that He's a top 36 ranked wide receiver. And to get him in the later rounds when you know that he can absolutely just explode and win you a week every five games, then I'm taking the chance.
Jason Moore
Very, very interesting. I think in three wide receiver leagues as well and as a flex rotational type of option with upside and I.
Andy Holloway
Would throw in best ball leagues, best ball leagues are going to get those deep bomb touchdowns. You don't have to make the decision as to when to start them, when he's going to because I have a feeling it's going to be, you know, hot and cold. He's not going to have the volume that says when he doesn't have a big game, he still has an okay game. It's probably going to be big game or bust.
Jason Moore
Is it a one year deal again?
Mike Wright
It's a two year deal.
Jason Moore
Okay, it's a two year deal.
Mike Wright
He's only 25.
Jason Moore
Maybe he'd make the rotation, try to play with every quarterback in football each year.
Mike Wright
He absolutely could. But he's got a huge, huge opportunity. How old is he 25.
Jason Moore
Yeah. He's a good value. He's very interesting. It's tough for rookie wide receivers to come in. Everybody likes Deontay Johnson. I like Deontay Johnson. Takes time.
Mike Wright
Long term, I'm interested in Johnson, but I'm not drafting Deontay Johnson in any form of redraft this year. Rookie wide receivers also, historically, before juju, like, rookie guys just don't do anything under Mike Tomlinson.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Yeah. It's a uphill battle to do that. All right, let's jump in. Pristine deal of the day. Well, that's perfect. Antonio Brown just talked about the gaping hole. All the targets left over in Pittsburgh. And Antonio Brown signed Oakland Raiders jersey yesterday@pristineauction.com JSA witnessed.
Andy Holloway
That's pretty cool.
Jason Moore
$74.
Mike Wright
They already got them.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I mean, I'm just saying, like, if I'm a Raiders fan and, you know, I would love an Oakland Raider signed Antonio Brown jersey. And those can't be too common because they can only have been signed in the last few months. So I doubt he was going around.
Jason Moore
Signing Raiders jerseys beforehand. Yes. Pristineauction.com use the registration code BALLERS and you get 5 bucks towards your first autographed purchase. Hundreds of daily auctions. Definitely check them out. Make sure you use the code ball Ballers. Any parting words, gentlemen? Mike, any lessons learned on your. Your long and illustrious vacation?
Mike Wright
Look, there is an airline that shall not be named, but I learned that it's good to be here. I love to be. I love to be on this podcast. Thank you for.
Jason Moore
We missed you, for all that, for.
Mike Wright
All the kind words on the social media.
Jason Moore
All right, that is it for Clan Chicago.
Mike Wright
We'll see you in a few hours.
Jason Moore
Yep. Let's do it. Ballerslive.com Goodbye.
Andy Holloway
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.
Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Early Sleepers & Values + ADP Picks"
Release Date: June 20, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
The episode kicks off with an in-depth analysis of the Minnesota Vikings' player pool and their respective Average Draft Positions (ADP). The hosts discuss which Vikings players offer the best value for fantasy drafts, particularly in a half-point per reception league.
Dalvin Cook (205 ADP): Jason Moore highlights Cook as a reliable second-round pick, emphasizing his consistency and potential to be a top-tier running back.
"I'm feeling very comfortable about [Dalvin Cook] being drafted in the middle of the second round." [02:20]
Adam Thielen vs. Stefan Diggs: Andy Holloway expresses his long-standing preference for Adam Thielen but acknowledges Stefan Diggs' rising value.
"I am most likely going to end up with Stefan Diggs if the ADP holds." [04:05]
Alexander Madison (1312 ADP): Mike Wright surprises many by selecting Alexander Madison as his top Vikings pick, citing his versatility and potential to surpass expectations.
"Alexander Madison is a well-rounded running back with the opportunity to become the Latavius Murray of the Vikings." [05:57]
The conversation shifts to contract situations of key wide receivers and their implications for fantasy football.
Michael Thomas: Andy Holloway downplays Thomas's contract concerns, emphasizing his youth and reliability.
"Michael Thomas is irrelevant to me. He's young, he's going to get paid." [11:13]
Julio Jones & A.J. Green: The hosts discuss the uncertainties surrounding Julio Jones and A.J. Green's contracts, particularly how these situations affect their long-term value in dynasty leagues.
"A.J. Green is the most worrisome with his age and injury history." [11:41]
Jason Moore shares the news of veteran quarterback Josh McCown's retirement after 17 seasons, highlighting his resilience and longevity in the NFL.
"[Josh McCown] has one of the greatest chins in history, literally and figuratively." [12:32]
McCown transitions to a role as an ESPN analyst, marking the end of his playing career.
The hosts turn their attention to emerging talents and hype surrounding specific players.
Dante Moncrief: Mike Wright passionately advocates for Moncrief, detailing his physical attributes and potential impact within the Pittsburgh Steelers' offense.
"Moncrief has a huge opportunity in Pittsburgh after the team traded away their best wide receiver." [42:50]
Mo Ali Cox ("Gigantor"): The conversation humorously covers Mo Ali Cox's imposing presence on the field and his potential as a red-zone target, despite his unconventional appearance.
"He's a red zone threat, but a distraction in the best way possible." [16:00]
The core of the episode revolves around identifying early sleeper picks—players drafted late or overlooked who could significantly outperform their ADP.
Mike Wright: Albert Wilson (Miami Dolphins)
"Albert Wilson excels in the short and intermediate game, making him a Julian Edelman-style asset for Miami's offense." [21:24]
Wilson's integration into the Dolphins' new offensive scheme under head coach Brian Flores is seen as a key factor in his potential breakout.
Andy Holloway: Deonta Foreman (Houston Texans)
"Deonta Foreman is 100% healthy and has a clear opportunity to take over the running back role from Lamar Miller." [24:43]
Foreman's recovery from a torn Achilles and his role in a revamped Texans offense make him a prime sleeper candidate.
Jason Moore: Curtis Samuel (Carolina Panthers)
"Curtis Samuel is a versatile receiver with touchdown potential, making him a valuable 11th-round pick." [30:55]
Moore compares Samuel's late-round value to higher-drafted players like DJ Moore, emphasizing his dual-threat capabilities.
In addition to sleepers, the hosts discuss early value picks—players who offer significant production relative to their draft position.
Andy Holloway: Cam Newton (Quarterback)
"Cam Newton has been a top-four quarterback when healthy and is available in the ninth round, making him a tremendous value despite injury concerns." [35:24]
Despite past injuries, Newton's consistent high-level performance when playing justifies his selection late in drafts.
Jason Moore: Royce Freeman (Denver Broncos)
"Royce Freeman is a flexible pass catcher and a reliable runner, offering guaranteed production as an eighth-round pick." [39:10]
Freeman's adaptability in the Broncos' offense and potential for touchdown opportunities make him an attractive value pick.
Mike Wright: Dante Moncrief (Pittsburgh Steelers)
"Moncrief could be the number two wide receiver for Pittsburgh, offering upside at a late-round price." [42:50]
Wright believes Moncrief's role in Pittsburgh's offense can provide significant fantasy returns if he secures a prominent position.
Antonio Brown Jersey Auction: The show highlights a signed Antonio Brown jersey available at PristineAuction.com, encouraging listeners to participate using the code "BALLERS."
"If you're a Raiders fan, a signed Antonio Brown jersey is a must-have collector's item." [48:32]
Sleeper Platform Update: Mike Wright introduces a new feature on the Sleeper app—tiered PPR rankings developed by Matthew Harmon, enhancing draft preparation tools.
"Check out the Reception Perception Project at ultimatedraftkit.com for advanced drafting strategies." [07:52]
The episode concludes with the hosts reflecting on Mike Wright's return from his "vacation," teasing future live shows in Chicago and other cities. They encourage listeners to engage with their community and stay tuned for upcoming content.
Notable Quotes:
This episode of the Fantasy Footballers provides valuable insights into early sleeper and value picks, particularly focusing on Vikings' ADP options and the impact of player contracts on fantasy strategies. The hosts offer expert analysis, backed by statistics and personal opinions, making it an essential listen for fantasy enthusiasts aiming to optimize their drafts and roster decisions.