Fantasy Footballers Podcast: "Early Sleepers & Values" Summary

Release Date: June 23, 2020

In this engaging episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the realm of fantasy football, offering expert analysis, strategic insights, and valuable advice to help listeners dominate their leagues. The episode, titled "Early Sleepers & Values," covers a variety of critical topics, including player injuries, ranking debates, sleeper picks, and listener questions. Below is a comprehensive summary capturing all key discussions and takeaways.

1. Welcome and Episode Overview

The hosts kick off the episode with their characteristic banter, setting an upbeat tone for the discussions ahead. Mike Wright humorously references the song "From a Distance" by Bette Midler, highlighting their camaraderie and light-hearted interaction before diving into serious fantasy football content.

2. Listener Question: Aaron Jones vs. AJ Dillon

Timestamp: 03:57

A listener named Tom from Ohio poses a pivotal question: "Why is Aaron Jones ranked so high with the Packers drafting AJ Dillon in the second round? He's our consensus running back. Six right now I have him at nine, Jason at nine, Mike at six. Last year, over a thousand yards, I believe he had about 75 touchdowns, right?"

Discussion Highlights:

• Aaron Jones' Performance and Regression:

  • Andy Holloway acknowledges Jones' exceptional performance last year but anticipates a regression in touchdowns: “Aaron Jones is going to have touchdown regression... He was the running back depending on scoring from last year.” (04:03)
  • Mike Wright adds that Jones' ranking is also influenced by the talent pool of other running backs, stating, “Aaron Jones ranking is also based on our confidence in other running backs in the NFL.” (05:37)

• Impact of AJ Dillon:

  • Jason Moore emphasizes that AJ Dillon won't significantly detract from Jones' role: “AJ Dillon doesn't come in and take that away from him. So he's still a top option to me.” (06:28)

• Final Consensus:

  • The trio maintains that despite some regression, Aaron Jones remains a top-tier running back, balancing his workload with the addition of AJ Dillon to the Packers' backfield.

3. Injury Updates: Debo Samuel and Others

Timestamp: 06:37

A significant portion of the episode addresses recent injuries affecting fantasy prospects:

• Debo Samuel's Jones Fracture:

  • Mike Wright reports that Debo Samuel suffered a broken left foot: “Debo Samuel suffered a broken left foot during a workout with teammates on Tuesday of last week. He'll be sidelined three to four months.” (06:37)
  • Andy Holloway discusses the prolonged recovery timeline and its alignment with the NFL season kickoff: “If it's 12 weeks from the day he had surgery, 12 weeks is the exact day of the kickoff of the NFL season.” (07:08)
  • The hosts express concern over Samuel's injury history and its impact on his dynasty value, with Andy rating him at 33: “I have Debo at 33 now.” (12:43)

• Other Injury News:

  • Dez Bryant's return to the 49ers and Josh Gordon's reinstatement are briefly discussed, highlighting the volatility and unpredictability of player availability.

4. Sleeper Picks: Surprising Value Players

Timestamp: 17:21

The hosts each present their own sleeper and value picks, identifying under-the-radar players poised for breakout seasons.

• Andy Holloway: Boston Scott (Philadelphia Eagles)

  • Overview:
    • Andy highlights Boston Scott as a deep sleeper: “Boston Scott's opportunity here is actually pretty good because they do need to find more ways to involve players in the passing game.” (18:05)
  • Rationale:
    • Scott's proven ability in the Eagles' offense, especially in the passing game, positions him for significant fantasy relevance.
    • His performance in the latter part of the previous season demonstrated his potential as a reliable RB2 with PPR upside.

• Mike Wright: Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts)

  • Overview:
    • Mike selects rookie Michael Pittman Jr. as a sleeper: “Frank Reich absolutely adores this kid. He's a contested catch master.” (22:53)
  • Rationale:
    • Pittman's role in the Colts' offense, coupled with the potential departure of Ty Hilton, offers Pittman an opportunity to emerge as a primary receiving threat.
    • Compared to other rookies, Pittman's draft position presents significant value.

• Jason Moore: DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles)

  • Overview:
    • Jason advocates for DeSean Jackson as a value pick: “DeSean Jackson is left for dead because he's a 33-year-old guy coming off an injury. But he's come off of injuries before.” (44:32)
  • Rationale:
    • Despite age and injury concerns, Jackson's speed and proven track record make him a potent option when healthy.
    • His role in the Eagles' offense remains pivotal, especially with the introduction of newcomer Jalen Rager.

5. Mailbag: Listener Questions and Strategic Discussions

Timestamp: 48:17

Listeners' questions provide a platform for the hosts to offer tailored advice and expand on strategic elements.

• Third-Round Reversal Strategy:

  • Michael from Columbus asks about the viability of a third-round reversal in drafts, particularly differentiating between dynasty and redraft leagues.
  • Jason Moore responds that while the strategy can be effective, it isn't mandatory and depends on the overall draft dynamics: “I’m fine with it, but I don't think it's any type of mandatory decision.” (48:47)

• Nick Chubb in Dynasty Leagues:

  • Jeff from Kansas City inquires about managing Nick Chubb in a dynasty league amidst concerns over Kareem Hunt's role.
  • The hosts agree that Nick Chubb retains significant value due to his talent and the potential decline of Kareem Hunt's role with the Browns. Andy emphasizes: “Nick Chubb is going to be awesome this year. I don’t worry.” (51:00)
  • Jason Moore supports holding onto Chubb, highlighting his long-term potential: “Nick Chubb is still a really solid dynasty running back.” (50:36)

6. Value Picks: Undervalued Players to Target

Timestamp: 31:59

Beyond sleepers, the hosts discuss players who are undervalued relative to their average draft positions (ADP), offering opportunities for savvy managers to gain an edge.

• Robert Woods (Los Angeles Rams):

  • Andy Holloway touts Robert Woods as a consistent performer who outperforms his ADP: “He is the number one wide receiver for the Rams. Now that doesn't mean necessarily that he's going to be the number one fantasy option, but he's a value.” (31:20)
  • His reliability and target volume make Woods an attractive option, especially considering his historical performance against his draft position.

• Ronald Jones II (Tampa Bay Buccaneers):

  • Mike Wright identifies Ronald Jones as an undervalued RB: “Ronald Jones is being undervalued for the opportunity he has this year.” (35:05)
  • Despite some concerns over his role and consistency, Jones' involvement in Tampa Bay's offense offers substantial upside, particularly in PPR formats.
  • Andy counters some skepticism, emphasizing Jones' potential: “Ronald Jones is worth the shot.” (38:14)

7. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The episode wraps up with the hosts reinforcing the importance of strategic player selection in fantasy football. They encourage listeners to utilize resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit and engage with the Fantasy Footballers community for ongoing support and updates.

Notable Quotes:

• “Aaron Jones is going to have touchdown regression... He was the running back depending on scoring from last year.” — Andy Holloway [04:03]
• “AJ Dillon doesn't come in and take that away from him. So he's still a top option to me.” — Jason Moore [06:28]
• “Ronald Jones is being undervalued for the opportunity he has this year.” — Mike Wright [35:05]
• “DeSean Jackson is left for dead because he's a 33-year-old guy coming off an injury. But he's come off of injuries before.” — Andy Holloway [44:32]

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast provides a wealth of information for fantasy football enthusiasts, blending insightful analysis with practical advice. Whether you're navigating player injuries, evaluating sleeper and value picks, or strategizing dynasty league moves, the expert trio equips you with the knowledge to enhance your fantasy football prowess.