Early Top 10 QB Rankings, Splash Zone

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: Early Top 10 QB Rankings, Splash Zone
Release Date: April 16, 2019

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1. Introduction to the Episode

In this episode titled "Early Top 10 QB Rankings, Splash Zone," hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into the early rankings of quarterbacks for the upcoming fantasy football season. They combine their expertise to provide insightful analysis, emphasizing the importance of quarterback performance in fantasy leagues.

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2. News and Updates

Before diving into the quarterback rankings, the hosts discuss significant NFL news that could impact fantasy football decisions.

a. Russell Wilson's Contract Situation

• Discussion: The hosts talk about the uncertainty surrounding Russell Wilson's future with the Seattle Seahawks. They highlight reports suggesting Wilson may seek a departure from Seattle unless a new contract is swiftly negotiated.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [02:08]: "We're recording this show late April 15th for, you know, obviously now it's Tuesday, it's April 16th, but we don't know whether Russell Wilson has signed a contract with the Seahawks. Or not."

b. Adam Thielen's Contract Extension

• Discussion: The Minnesota Vikings have secured wide receiver Adam Thielen with a four-year, $64 million extension. This move significantly increases Thielen's salary from $8 million to $16 million per season, reflecting his value to the team.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [08:44]: "Adam Thielen, he got that bag. Adam Thielen four year, 64 million dollar contract extension."

c. Leonard Fournette's Legal Troubles

• Discussion: Leonard Fournette was arrested for speeding and driving with a suspended license. This incident raises concerns about his reliability and potential impact on his fantasy performance.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [12:02]: "Leonard Fournette was arrested in Jacksonville on Thursday for speeding and knowingly driving with a suspended license."

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3. Quarterback Rankings

The core of the episode revolves around early rankings of the top 10 quarterbacks, assessing their fantasy potential based on past performance, team dynamics, and projected improvements or concerns.

a. Patrick Mahomes – Ranked #1

• Discussion: Patrick Mahomes retains the top spot due to his exceptional talent and previous performance. However, the hosts express skepticism about his ability to consistently replicate his breakout season.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [19:37]: "Pat Mahomes at number one, not surprising, finished number one, had 14 quarterback one weeks."

b. Andrew Luck – Ranked #2

• Discussion: Andrew Luck is ranked second despite his extended hiatus from football. His comeback has been impressive, with multiple games showcasing his high touchdown potential. The hosts believe Luck's history of performance secures his high ranking.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [23:28]: "Andrew Luck, 40, 39 touchdowns, 4593 yards... And he had an NFL record eight straight games with three or more touchdowns."

c. Aaron Rodgers – Ranked #3

• Discussion: Aaron Rodgers, despite a dip in performance the previous year, remains a top fantasy option. The discussion centers on his reduced red zone attempts and the potential for improvement with a healthier set of receivers.

• Quote:
  Mike Wright [26:49]: "Aaron Rodgers saw his touchdown percentage drop two full points from his career average from 6.2 down to 4.2."

d. DeSean Watson – Ranked #4

• Discussion: DeSean Watson is placed fourth due to his impressive statistics last season, including a high completion percentage and significant rushing yards. Concerns remain about his offensive line and potential regression.

• Quote:
  Mike Wright [30:09]: "He was sacked 62 times... I think Watson will be completely back to health, completely back to mental health."

e. Baker Mayfield – Ranked #5

• Discussion: Baker Mayfield garners the fifth spot with strong red zone efficiency and the backing of a solid offensive line. Despite some reservations from the hosts, his potential for high touchdowns keeps him highly ranked.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [33:42]: "Baker Mayfield had the second highest quarterback rating inside the 20 in the red zone last year."

f. Carson Wentz – Ranked #6

• Discussion: Carson Wentz is ranked sixth, reflecting his limited games last season and dependency on rushing performance. The hosts debate his durability and offensive support as key factors influencing his ranking.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [38:53]: "He just wasn't the same Carson Wentz you got when he was break, you know, MVP candidate."

g. Cam Newton – Ranked #7

• Discussion: Cam Newton occupies the seventh spot, with his fantasy potential contingent on health and offensive strategies. Despite a rocky return from injury, his rushing ability provides value.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [39:37]: "Cam Newton, when he is healthy, is always an elite fantasy football producer."

h. Matt Ryan – Ranked #13

• Discussion: Matt Ryan is somewhat controversially placed at thirteenth, reflecting concerns over his fluctuating performance and system changes. The hosts argue over his value, balancing past excellence against recent inconsistencies.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [36:06]: "Matt Ryan is not a guarantee. You've got to change at offensive coordinator."

i. Drew Brees – Ranked #10

• Discussion: Drew Brees is acknowledged for his consistent performance but noted for some underwhelming games. His high fantasy ceiling is balanced by occasional low production weeks.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [52:17]: "He threw for just a hair under my guy."

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4. Strategic Insights

The hosts provide strategic advice on drafting quarterbacks, emphasizing value and the depth of the position.

• Streaming Quarterbacks: Given the depth in effective quarterbacks (41 QBs in top performances last season), the hosts suggest streaming the position and prioritizing value over early selection.

  Quote:
  Mike Wright [18:16]: "The point per game differential between Quarterback 8 and Quarterback 14 was less than a single point."

• Value Over Hierarchy: Focus should be on selecting quarterbacks who offer the best value relative to their draft position, rather than strictly adhering to traditional rankings.

  Quote:
  Jason Moore [11:22]: "They are very close to me, so. Yeah, so I would just take the better value."

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5. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The hosts wrap up the episode by reinforcing the importance of smart quarterback selections and staying informed with the latest NFL developments to make advantageous fantasy decisions.

• Quote:
  Jason Moore [54:17]: "If you believe there's an 80%, then yes."

They also briefly mention upcoming promotions and community engagement, encouraging listeners to stay connected for future insights and giveaways.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Jason Moore [02:08]: "We're recording this show late April 15th... we don't know whether Russell Wilson has signed a contract with the Seahawks."

• Jason Moore [19:37]: "Pat Mahomes at number one... had 14 quarterback one weeks."

• Mike Wright [26:49]: "Aaron Rodgers saw his touchdown percentage drop two full points from his career average..."

• Jason Moore [33:42]: "Baker Mayfield had the second highest quarterback rating inside the 20 in the red zone last year."

• Jason Moore [36:06]: "Matt Ryan is not a guarantee. You've got to change at offensive coordinator."

• Mike Wright [18:16]: "The point per game differential between Quarterback 8 and Quarterback 14 was less than a single point."

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Final Thoughts

This episode provides a comprehensive early look at quarterback rankings for the fantasy football season, combining statistical analysis with expert opinions. The hosts encourage listeners to consider both value and position depth when drafting quarterbacks, ensuring strategic team building for fantasy success.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, this is David Johnson, running back of the Arizona Cardinals, and you're listening.

[Mike Wright]

To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in Fantasy Footballers Back once more. Jason Moore is here. Mike the fantasy hitman, present and accounted for. That is correct. We've been warned. We have been warned.

[Andy Holloway]

We have.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Jason had some hot wings for lunch.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Jason had some hot wings. We've been warned that bodily functions may become audible. Well, I can't.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So just like you might want to listen through your iPhone speaker today instead of the nice headphones you have on.

[Jason Moore]

Unless I mean an intimate look at our opinions is what we promise people.

[Mike Wright]

If you're into like ASMR throat burps.

[Andy Holloway]

Then this is your channel. Congratulations, you found it.

[Jason Moore]

I could see Brooks is vigorously typing to register that YouTube channel, ASMR Throat Burps by Jason Moore. Gargle, gargle, gargle.

[Andy Holloway]

I call them my lions.

[Jason Moore]

Every day. Every day we hear how we should be on the lookout for whatever post lunch recording extravaganza Jason will bring our way. How were the wings?

[Andy Holloway]

Honestly? And this is. Look, this isn't very hot takey. If you've actually had them. It sounds red. Robin has top five hot wings.

[Mike Wright]

Hashtag not a sponsor.

[Andy Holloway]

Could be so. Hey, Mr. Robin, Mrs. Robin, if you're out there, I love your wings.

[Jason Moore]

So you would probably, if they wanted to sponsor you would take it. Full payment in wings, 100%. Well, I also probably all flats.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

As opposed to the wings. All right. We got a great show. Quarterback early rankings today. I'm excited. We're going to get through as many as we can. Probably not going to linger at the top. Pat Mahomes, very good player. Very good player. Aaron Rodgers. Ever heard of him? He'll be in the list.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. But people are mad at him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. They're a little upset. And not. We're not just talking about Mike McCarthy. No, we're talking about fantasy owners.

[Mike Wright]

We're talking about apparently Greg Jennings.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, well, you have to fill me in on the read that wasn't it.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah, yeah. There was a.

[Mike Wright]

From that article that came out.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. You know, when people are back, when people are done playing football and then someone else is still playing football, the done people are very bitter.

[Mike Wright]

I can't wait to feel that way.

[Jason Moore]

About podcasting when you're done. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

What you're gonna say about us.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, let's say we can't really, we can't wait for that time because.

[Andy Holloway]

Because we will still be podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Right? Right.

[Andy Holloway]

You'll have been kicked off and there'll.

[Jason Moore]

Be this article that goes up on the Athletic or something and Mike will be like, man, those guys.

[Andy Holloway]

The egos.

[Jason Moore]

The egos. All right, hey, listen, we have a very important announcement.

[Andy Holloway]

Listen, listen to your father.

[Jason Moore]

Big announcement. All right.

[Mike Wright]

That is poignant when it's. Listen. I mean, we're usually assembling people assemble.

[Andy Holloway]

And listen to your father.

[Jason Moore]

Before we get into the news, before we get into the quarterback rankings, we have a very exciting announcement. The NFL Draft. In case you haven't had the, you know, the radio on. Listen to podcasts, go to usbn.com radio.

[Mike Wright]

You go with the radio.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I mean, out here in Arizona.

[Mike Wright]

We'Re trying to kill the radio.

[Jason Moore]

When I flip on the radio, all they do is talk about the NFL Draft. That's the. That was what was on my mind. It's in. Well, it's just like a week away. Just a little over a week away. And now is the time to Pre order the 2019 Ultimate Draft Kit. And let me tell you why. The reason why is we have a very special UDK NFL Draft pre sale bundle going on from right now, this moment until the final day of the NFL draft. And here's what you get. If you order the Ultimate Draft Kit @ultimate draft kit.com Before April 28, you will automatically get the Ultimate Draft Kit at the lowest possible price, the number one tool for dominating your draft. The you'll get a $10 gift card to shopballers.com for some free swag. You will get first access to Dynasty and rookie rankings, which will be releasing right after, shortly after the NFL draft. As soon as we can get our heads around where all the players went, we'll get them out there. You'll have them for your Dynasty drafts, for your rookie drafts. Plus, here's the special part of this bundle. If you are in that group that orders before April 28, you get a chance to win the Ultimate Fantasy Footballers Prize Pack. Here's what comes in it. We're giving away another one of the spots for the 2019 Listener League. That is the league that you play with us, where you get to be part of the Slack Channel. You get to be part of the whole kit and caboodle. And if you win, you come back for the next year. We're giving away one more spot to a lucky winner. We're giving away two custom jerseys from fantasychamps.com. we are giving away a special tour prize because our live tour of the podcast will be announced very, very soon. And a lucky winner will get two VIP tickets on the next tour, two front row seats, a signed limited edition poster, a tour T shirt, a special meet and greet with the three of us at the show.

[Mike Wright]

The front row of our live shows due to Jason's throw, his sweatiness. It's actually a splash zone.

[Andy Holloway]

It is, but we will provide the ponchos.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The first three rows. Really?

[Andy Holloway]

I run a little hot.

[Jason Moore]

I want to say this. The similarities between Shamu and I saw.

[Andy Holloway]

Where it was going.

[Jason Moore]

I'm kidding.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I thought you were at least gonna go with Gallagher.

[Jason Moore]

I. He knew where it was going, and I didn't know whether to finish the sentence. For the record, I love Jason so much.

[Andy Holloway]

I love you too, brother.

[Jason Moore]

You're proud of me for finishing the joke, right?

[Andy Holloway]

I am. If you wouldn't have. I mean, a lot of times I'll read a YouTube comment or something like, oh, you guys are so mean to Jason. Like, here's an insight. We're all three actually really good friends. And I.

[Jason Moore]

You've also never seen Jason win a shuffleboard game because he pays it back when he wins.

[Andy Holloway]

That I'm a monster. That's just the truth. And so, yeah, give it to me.

[Mike Wright]

I can take it.

[Jason Moore]

All right, so that's what we're giving away. You can go to ultimate draft kit.com to snag your UDK before April 28, and you will be automatically entered to win, by the way, if you already have yours.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you. I was going to make sure I didn't hear you say this yet.

[Jason Moore]

If you already have yours. No, you did not need to wait to get it. Now you are also entered to win.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you're just already in.

[Jason Moore]

You were already in, and you were part of the previous giveaway.

[Andy Holloway]

And if we run more giveaways in the future, you're in. If you buy it now before the April 28th double your chances.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, here we go. News time.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Mike Wright]

All I'm doing is picturing, like, Dan Rather or Anderson Cooper.

[Jason Moore]

News time.

[Andy Holloway]

Here we go.

[Mike Wright]

News time.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, big, big maybe for you guys. A big, big maybe. Here's the deal. Russell Wilson, we're recording this show late April 15th for, you know, obviously now it's Tuesday, it's April 16th, but we don't know whether Russell Wilson has signed a contract with the Seahawks. Or not. It's not trending that way. He gave a deadline. A source told Mike Florio that the Seahawks believe Russ wants to play somewhere else. And if he does not sign or hasn't signed by the time you're listening to this, according to Russell Wilson, he will not sign an extension with them at all.

[Mike Wright]

Peter King, yes, according to Peter King.

[Andy Holloway]

Saying Russell Wilson will not sign an extension ever. Essentially, if they don't get something done now, then they're going to. He's going to play out his contract. You can franchise tag him if you need to. He'll go the Kirk Cousins route, which does lead to the idea that trade. Maybe he would trade. There's a lot of possibilities. Or maybe he really does want, you know, I think Tyron Matthew was out there saying he, you know, wants to.

[Jason Moore]

Play in New York.

[Andy Holloway]

Playing New York.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Also big news. Adam Thielen, he got that bag. Adam Thielen four year, 64 million dollar contract extension. So Adam Thielen officially getting paid. The Vikings rewarded Adam Thielen. He would have gone into the season making 8 million this year. He's going to make double. He will make 16 million this season. I saw some tweets to this. To this extent. Thielen Diggs both locked up big, big money poured into quarterback and wide receivers for a team that wants to run the ball more.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I was saying about 90% of their cap is the two wide receivers and their quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

But I have been more insistent and more on the other side of that equation where the over talk, the over discussion of the running game. Look, I love Dalvin Cook because he's the only man in town and they do want to run the ball well when the push comes to shove. They had a defense that struggled last year. They have to, I mean you're not going to. How much money is locked into Thielen, Diggs and Cousins? $100 million.

[Andy Holloway]

The truth isn't that like when we talk about the Seahawks or the Lions really wanting to be a run for first run only type of team. That's not what Minnesota is wanting to do. They just want to be more balanced. Before they fired who was there? DeFilippo. Before they let him go, it was, it was a really obnoxious ratio of as far as to Zimmer, to Mike Zimmer head coach. So they just want to be more balanced. They want to be able to run the clock out when they're up. They want to be able to, you know, play good football. I think this is a good move. I mean, obviously, I've been saying. And Andy, you've been saying that Thielen is their number one receiver. He will be the number one target. And I think it's going to be a good offense.

[Mike Wright]

It's just, it's a crazy situation. Speaking for the NFL business side, because when Adam Thielen had his breakout coming from his undrafted state, worked his way up, had a little bit of success, not a huge amount, they rewarded him, they gave him money. I mean, and they took, they took the gamble on their side saying Thielen is for real. And Thielen took his gamble of saying, I need to cash in on this. Unless he got the best of both worlds. If something terrible happens, teams don't do this where a player has massively outperformed their contract, even when that contract was already a big payday for that player to start with. So this is a very interesting business move by the Minnesota Vikings to me.

[Jason Moore]

Do you agree with the fantasy football sentiment that we talked about last week with the wide receiver show that you take the guy at the best value between theaters?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, only if Thielen is the better value. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

No, see, I'll feel it all the time for Jason.

[Mike Wright]

They're very close to me, so. Yeah, so I would just take the better value.

[Jason Moore]

Chris Hogan signs a one year deal with the Panthers.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I spared him. I spared him the drop.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's nice of you.

[Jason Moore]

I spared him the drop. The jets signed Tom Montgomery.

[Mike Wright]

It's interesting.

[Jason Moore]

Formerly of the Ravens, packers, last year to back up Love Bell.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's.

[Jason Moore]

Or be a piece of that puzzle. He is their new ball pal. That's what he is. He's the new blow pal.

[Mike Wright]

Well, and Ty Montgomery is far more like Le'Veon Bell than the other guys that they had on the team.

[Jason Moore]

Have we not talked about Leonard Fournette yet?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Leonard Fournette was arrested in Jacksonville on Thursday for speeding and knowingly driving with a suspended license. So here we are.

[Mike Wright]

Do you get a lesser punishment if you say, I knowingly I did not know that it was suspended?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, of course you want to say I did not know. You don't want, you don't want to go around being like, yeah, I just.

[Mike Wright]

Didn'T care why this would sound. This sounds to me like Leonard Fournette admitted that he knew it was suspended for.

[Jason Moore]

Here's what fantasy owners need to be aware of. It's been a very. It's been a tightrope walk for Leonard Fournette with Tom Coughlin and that organization they already pulled out the guaranteed money on his last year of the deal. Now you have this situation where Tom Coughlin has been talking up Leonard Fournette. Fantasy owners are expecting big things. There's not a lot of competition. Alfred Blue is there. Like I said, it's a clear path forward for Leonard Fournette. And now this. There's something that happens here that gives people like Jason, who own him in a lot of leagues at least a little bit of pause to say, is this. Will this be the straw that breaks the camel's back?

[Andy Holloway]

You know, Tom Coughlin is not good. It's not good when you've got someone like Tom Coughlin who really does genuinely care about that stuff. I mean, Leonard Fournette laughing on the sideline while they're losing. A lot of coaches would just. Whatever, you know, he's. He's a human. This was not okay for, you know, grandpa Tom Coughlin. And so this is one of those things where it's like. I mean, in fairness, like, it shows a little bit of immaturity. You're a. You're a multi. Multi millionaire. You can't pay your, you know, your. Your traffic fines, like, take care of your business.

[Jason Moore]

A headache's a headache. That's why, look, from what actually happened, you know, this isn't domestic abuse. This isn't some sort of, you know, dui. This is not something that. This is a slap on the wrist type of offense.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. You just don't want your star running back coming up in the news arrested.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. So that was today's news and notes brought to you by Sleeper. Be sure to switch your Dynasty league over to Sleeper. Download the app today, guys, it's time. Let's talk quarterbacks. Maybe. Maybe we will, maybe we won't. I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

Quarterbacks.

[Jason Moore]

And now, you know, the thing is quarterbacks, when I can't find the drop to hit. I'm sorry to tell you this. This is human nature. I'm a fallen person. I just want to blame Brooks. I don't want it to be my fault. I instantly want it to be Brooks's fault. He didn't capitalize the drop. It was a lowercase.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, so based on. Based on that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you say that this was Brooks fault in this situation?

[Jason Moore]

This one, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, good.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. This one, yes.

[Mike Wright]

If I were running the soundboard, I mean, there's. There's so many buttons over there that you could push, and I could not find what I needed to push. I would just push something.

[Andy Holloway]

Close your eyes.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, because you don't want to get to that awkward point, Right?

[Andy Holloway]

Let's close your eyes. Let's get to the new drop.

[Mike Wright]

Now, quarterbacks, carry out your favorite style.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I did close my eyes.

[Andy Holloway]

That was.

[Jason Moore]

That was great. Now quarterbacks carry on Johnson. All right. Hey, look, we did not include rookies in these rankings. I say that because I really wanted to. I believe. I believe Kyler Murray will end up in a starting role, drafted so high that he has to be, whether it's Oakland or Arizona or New York or wherever, Denver, who knows? But he'll be starting. So I think Kyler Murray starting defaults him in the top 15.

[Andy Holloway]

I really do, 100% in the top 15. If he's a top 10 quarterback, I won't be surprised at all. And I wouldn't doubt if going into draft season, he is my number one target at the position, because depending on where, I mean, if he doesn't get the steam of this year's fantasy success and he's drafted like a rookie quarterback, I will. I will absolutely take him for the. For the potential. I mean, you look at Russell Wilson, right? Comes in and rookie season or Cam. The guys that run rookie season, they.

[Jason Moore]

Dominate Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. Yeah, I mean, we saw this last year, and he's a special player. But we'll have plenty of time post draft to talk all about where the rookies went, best possible fits, best draft, best players for fantasy. So we'll get there. Right now, we're going to cover our consensus top quarterbacks here in April. It's April 15th when we're recording this, and we all have a very surprising name at the top of the list. Now, I want to set a little context for the quarterback position first. Okay, guys, if we include week 17 of last year, we saw a total number of 41 different quarterbacks put up a top 12 performance. Why is that important, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

Because you can stream the position. It's. It's a very replaceable part of your fantasy football team.

[Jason Moore]

I think that Jason and I both commented when we were ranking our initial quarterbacks, kind of how annoying it is because you look at 24 guys, and while there are tiers, undoubtedly tiers of quarterbacks, you get to this. This area where the order could be anything between, I don't know, six through 14. So we took our shot. We ranked our guys. We'll bring them up on the show.

[Andy Holloway]

A couple years ago, the quarterback situation in the NFL started looking murky. You had guys getting older. You had Tom Brady, Drew Brees, you know, and they were about to leave and there weren't air apparent replacements. And so it's like, it was scary. Then all of a sudden you look at the last few years and you've got Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott, Mahomes and Deshaun Watson and. But none of the old guys are gone yet. So right now, more than any year I can remember, there are, there's 21 quarterbacks, not including Kyler Murray, where I think, I think Kirk Cousins is my 21st ranked quarterback. I'd be just fine going into the, into 2019 with Kirk Cousins.

[Mike Wright]

And to speak to the cluster, last year in standard scoring, the point per game differential between Quarterback 8 and Quarterback 14 was less than a single point.

[Jason Moore]

That's probably the most compelling argument to stream quarterback unless you get an incredible value on a top end guy. If QB8 to QB14 had a differential of less than a point a game, that tells you that you are literally wasting a pick if you overpay for somebody in that middling tier. Unless you are, look, shoot your shot if you are convicted. That like last year, Pat Mahomes obviously did not go at the top of the draft.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, he was super late.

[Jason Moore]

If you are positive that Baker's going to be the number one quarterback, okay, maybe that rises him up that middling tier. But the evidence is there. And look, scoring is up. The way these offenses are being run has been very advantageous to the quarterback position. There were 33 weeks last year of 30 plus fantasy points from the quarterback position. That was almost double the year before.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, two years ago is weird. It was weird wide receiver scoring, weird quarterback scoring.

[Jason Moore]

That was the year that we had a lot of wide receiver injury as well, I believe. All right, let's jump into it. Pat Mahomes. Pat Mahomes at number one, not surprising, finished number one, had 14 quarterback one weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

He was, I mean, look, we can almost, we can almost skip Pat Mahomes. Here's the reality. He was so much better than the second quarterback that the whole, you know, we are huge proponents of drafting your quarterback late streaming the position. Meaning play him off of the waiver wire, grab a guy and play the matchup more than the quarterback himself. Pat Mahomes is the only quarterback here that is worth an early pick. If he were to repeat, if he were to repeat the success, he is 100% worth statistically, mathematically, you know, looking at what you're replacing in the draft at wide receiver and running back, he would be worth it. Now will he repeat that? I don't think so. I think that we've got enough evidence of monstrous quarterback seasons that all come down to earth even when they're good. Peyton, Aaron Rodgers, those type of things. So I would not even consider Pat Mahomes. But if he does repeat, then you're happy. Otherwise.

[Jason Moore]

I see. I would consider Pat Mahomes. I think he will repeat. I think it'll be pretty close.

[Mike Wright]

8.6%. 8.6 of his attempts were touchdowns. That's. That's ludicrous.

[Jason Moore]

The case that I have for it is that number one, Patrick Mahomes is a generational type of talent. Number two, he's matched up with the best or top three play callers in the league. If you look at the reason I think he's such a differentiator and why those numbers can stay the same is if you look at third and long, who throws the ball deep? Well, Patrick Mahomes is in another echelon of what that offense does. 30% of the time he's throwing the ball deep on third and long and taking a shot. You know what Dak Prescott did, 9%, Jared Goff in the super offense, 10%, Drew Brees, 10%. That's an unbelievable type of number from Patrick Mahomes. Now, if Tyree Kill is not there, the ceiling changes when you take the fastest player in the game away from it. But I all of this to say, you know, how early do you take Patrick Mahomes?

[Andy Holloway]

Right now he's going at the seventh pick of the second round.

[Mike Wright]

No way, man.

[Jason Moore]

301. I'll take the jump.

[Mike Wright]

The thing is, if Patrick Mahomes puts up 35 touchdowns, that's a great season. That's an excellent season for a quarterback. You're happy with your fantasy numbers, but that would be a massive colossal bust if you drafted him at the back of the second or the early third. And he only throws 35 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

If he throws 45.

[Mike Wright]

Of course, if he throws 45. But then he. Now you're talking about that. And I'm fine calling him like, look.

[Jason Moore]

I'm trying to make saying he's generational.

[Mike Wright]

Guy, but to say he's going to hit 45, you're talking. Okay, he's just, he's a one. He's a top two quarterback of all time already.

[Jason Moore]

It's not necessarily saying that because the precedent set for the quarterback position in previous years that we lean on. Look, I'm trying to play devil's advocate here. I still on, on the whole, we never advocate taking a quarterback high and I don't want to. But if you do take him and what if I told you this? Let's, let's frame it differently. If you believe Patrick Mahomes was an 80% chance at a near repeat of the fantasy production, do you take him? If I, if I believe in the second round? If you believe there was an 80% chance?

[Mike Wright]

If I believe there's 80%, then yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So where are you in that percentage in that belief?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm in.

[Jason Moore]

You believe it's 50. 50.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, 20%.

[Mike Wright]

I was gonna say I would be close to the 20 to 25%.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, that's fair. That's fair. Andrew Locke comes in at number two.

[Andy Holloway]

Really? I feel like there's three guys that come in at 2, 3, 4. Would we agree there, like kind of the next grouping. We all have the same top four Lock, Rogers, Watson.

[Jason Moore]

That's how they ended up landing Luck, Rogers, Watson, in that order based on how we ranked them. Mostly because Mike had Rogers at 4, dummy. So Andrew Luck, 40, 39 touchdowns, 4593 yards. You could kind of throw out those first three weeks of the season as he hadn't played football in about a decade or so it seemed. But he had an NFL record eight straight games with three or more touchdowns from weeks four through 12 after that warm up period. And he was great. And this is a team that I love. This is a team that I think can threaten for an AFC title.

[Andy Holloway]

The reason that I would put Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck ahead of Watson, even though Watson's been great, is just because you have a history of basically those two players dominating. If you got 16 games from those two players, you know, minus the rookie year for Aaron, for Andrew Luck, you're pretty much dealing with a top five guy almost every single time you look at Andrew Luck, the fifth best two years ago, fourth best, the second best, the fourth best. Even his rookie year, he's a ninth best. So you've got this history of like, what's the floor? What's the floor for these guys, barring injury or something like that? It's like, it's like quarterback seven, you know, and you've got a lot of data to support that between those two. So if I'm taking the gamble of I think someone's going to be for sure locked and loaded, top five, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, they just, they've done it too many times.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, they're fully in the kind of prime part of their career where you look at when Brady was there, you didn't really care what the weapons were. Brady was going to be in your top five top eight. Luck has hopefully a healthy Ty Hill and funches Ebron weapons a plenty. They'll probably draft some. Did you have anything you want to add about Andrew Luck before we talk? Roger?

[Mike Wright]

No, not Luck. I'm ready for Rogers.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I'm gonna press pause for a second because I do want to thank today's sponsor, HelloFresh. HelloFresh makes conquering the kitchen a reality with deliciously simple recipes in a fresh some fresh pre measured ingredients delivered right to your door. We've been talking about HelloFresh for a long time. I can still remember making this delicious caramelized onion burger with my wife from hellofresh. All the meals come together fast, 30 minutes max, less than two pots or pans. So they're kind of like it's not just sending you something you have to work all day on. They kind of know what's going on. They know you want a delicious meal. They know you want different plans. They got classic and veggie and family. So get out of that recipe rut. Cook outside your comfort zone by trying out hellofresh and you can do that right now and get $80 off your first month by going to hellofresh.com footballers80 and entering the code footballers80. That's hellofresh.com footballers 80 and enter the code footballers80 for 20 off your first four boxes. Pretty good deal. All right, Aaron Rodgers. Mike, you got him before. Talk about Aaron Rodgers.

[Mike Wright]

So I do have Aaron Rodgers the lowest, but I have the case for Aaron Rodgers. If people weren't aware of what happened to him last year when he was still what, the quarterback? Six.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct.

[Mike Wright]

On the season, Aaron Rodgers saw his touchdown percentage drop two full points from his career average from 6.2 down to 4.2. And the problem came down, at least in my estimation. One, he was badly injured in week one. We you thought he was done for the year, but then it came down to red zone attempts. That's what made Aaron, it's always made Aaron Rodgers different than other quarterbacks is as soon as they get in the 20, they get into this inside the 10. When most teams are saying, okay, we're going to run it up the middle, Aaron Rodgers says, no, thank you, I'm going to throw it. But you saw the red zone attempts of the past five years. You're talking he's averaging a little over 100 attempts inside the red zone. And then last year, 2018, it dropped all the way to 64. That's. There's a massive, massive plummet. And it just, it was his weapons.

[Jason Moore]

Attributed that to the weapons injury.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the weapons and the injury last year, through the first four games, Geronimo Allison was on a pace of. He was catching five receptions a game for 72 yards and averaging half a touchdown. Geronimo Allison, this is just another reminder, was excellent for fantasy football while he was healthy. Then he got hurt. The rookies did not step up. So that's my case for Aaron Rodgers. Will the new coaching staff let him throw the ball inside the 20? And I think they will, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

He's going to decide that. I mean, Aaron Rodgers is going to throw the ball inside the 20 because Aaron Rodgers wants to throw the ball inside the 20. You, your case to me is a reason why he might be a really good value this year relative. He's not a good value because he's going early in drafts and he's a quarterback. But relative to where you usually get him, you know, he's got eight of his last 10 seasons at 15 or 16 games. And of those, including this last year where he finished sixth and he had one down year when he lost Jordy where he finished seventh, he averages just past the quarterback two over those eight seasons.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

He's got a chip on his shoulder the size of Mike McCarthy. Okay. So I feel like if you're going to take a shot at someone, I'm going to take a shot at, you know, who is considered one of the top five quarterbacks all time, who's proven it forever, who's getting a new offensive mind in there with a lot to prove. The health issues that you just talked about. Look, Jeronimous, it should be back. So I actually like Aaron Rodgers of those top quarterbacks, but again, in the.

[Jason Moore]

Context of where you're going quarterback league.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he provides a value for where he'll go.

[Jason Moore]

By the way, he was the only other player than Mahomes. I said 30% of the time on third and long, he's throwing deep. Rogers was at 23%. No other quarterback was above 20%. Kind of adding to the fuel to the fire of Jason's he'll do what he wants kind of mindset. Even with the handcuffing of Mike McCarthy. Desean Watson at number four, Baker Mayfield at five, Watson all the way up at number two. For Mike Jason, you and I have him at four. Last year he had, he had a heck of a season. Highest completion percentage for a second year quarterback in NFL history. He had to run around a lot. He was sacked 62 times. I remember the John Kitness season in 2006 when he was sacked more than 62 times. That was the. The highest since then.

[Mike Wright]

A lot of those sacks, that's on Watson, 100% like his offensive line is. I would not call them a strong unit, but you watch him hold on the ball. And what's crazy, I want to see if you guys feel the same way as I do, because I remember if we had pumped the brakes on Watson because his draft price got absolutely out of control. He was the second quarterback off the.

[Andy Holloway]

Board after his rookie year. After his rookie year.

[Mike Wright]

And it was, hold the phone, people. This is what he did. You can't possibly do that again. But I. It felt like at least halfway through that he wasn't having a great fantasy year like that. That was how I feel when I would. When I would watch my opponent who was in my division, he had Watson. And I was just laughing hysterically because there were so many games where Watson was actually hurting his team. But then things started to come back together for Watson. So that. My point is why I have him at number two. I think he was. I think he was shook coming back from the injury. He had to work his way back in. Into the flow of the game to have more confidence in his legs. He still ran the ball like crazy over 550 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns. I think that Watson will be completely back to health, completely back to mental health. And that's the difference for me.

[Andy Holloway]

I love DeSean Watson, love everything about him. Him being at four to me has nothing to do with him. It has everything to do with the history we have in Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck and then of course, Pat Mahomes.

[Jason Moore]

Last year, Watson went at 502. This year he's going so far at 602. Would you have been happy?

[Andy Holloway]

That's almost a round better value.

[Jason Moore]

You're. You're spot on, Jason. I've done the math.

[Mike Wright]

Almost.

[Jason Moore]

But. But would you have been happy with him at 502 last year?

[Andy Holloway]

No way. No.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

What if you got the same value at 602 this year? Are you happy with that?

[Mike Wright]

No, not at all.

[Jason Moore]

Baker Mayfield coming in at number five. He's number five on mine. He's number five on Jason's. Mike's at seven.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Mike hates Baker. That's the thing to get. To take away from this segment, how Mike hates Baker Mayfield.

[Mike Wright]

Dare you speak that evil into this?

[Andy Holloway]

I've got Baker Mania. You've got Baker Mania.

[Jason Moore]

Clearly.

[Andy Holloway]

But Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Mike does not have Baker Mania. Mike also doesn't like him as a player or person.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. It actually says he's a little arrogant for my taste. That's not me. But Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Mike says that. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I would recommend if you're holding your iPhone, to place it down because my rage could explode your battery.

[Jason Moore]

There could be some radiation.

[Mike Wright]

There's a problem.

[Andy Holloway]

That's my guy. That's my guy. Baker. Oh.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you're right. It does hurt. It hurts a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

So look, it's hard not to have Baker Mania right now for Jason and I. And look, from week seven through 16 last year, he was the QB10 ahead of names like Goff Rivers, Trubisky, added Odell Beckham Jr. What I love about Baker, here's. Here's a stat that I saw this morning. I don't think I ended up tweeting it out. Baker Mayfield had the second highest. He had the second highest quarterback rating inside the 20 in the red zone last year. He had ice water on that struggling Hugh Jackson led Cleveland Brown team. He was a great red zone quarterback coming into year two. There's a lot of reasons to love him and we don't want to knock the pendulum too far that direction.

[Mike Wright]

That's all I'm doing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, clearly with your hate, you have at seven. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the reason I'm up.

[Jason Moore]

That's not even in the top six.

[Andy Holloway]

Well said. Here's the reason I have him, number five. Because when I look at this group, this starts the third tier for me and the third tier, even though it starts at number five, it goes all the way down to, like quarterback 13. And of that group, which I love every single player in there, I want the unknown. I want the ability to say, okay.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe like a father, like with all his kids, I love every single one of you. I love you all the same.

[Andy Holloway]

But I have a favorite. Like a good father, Right. Like a real father.

[Mike Wright]

But your favorite is the unknown.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's the unknown. If I know you, I don't like you. No. The reality is I'm hoping if I'm taking any quarterback early, I need them to go Pat Mahomes. I need them to go nuclear. I don't want them to do what DeSean Watson did last year and have a good year. And that's the hope with Baker. Do I think he does that? I would lean on the side of no. But he has the chance. He came in after not starting the whole season and did he tie or break the all Time. Rookie passing touchdown record. One of those two.

[Mike Wright]

He broke it. Yeah, he did not play in the first two weeks.

[Jason Moore]

He broke it. But you would not be happy with that season, obviously. I mean, he set up a record for a rookie passer not playing the first two weeks. Mike, I'm not sure I buy into your. The unknown aspect. When you combine that with the next two guys on the list, Carson Wentz, Cam Newton and the struggles that they're, you know, they're coming off injury, they're coming off of shoulder surgery and things like that. If anything, I would say a strong argument can be made for Matt Ryan, who had a monstrous number two fantasy season. Ryan probably deserves the respect of being here.

[Mike Wright]

I believe you should look at my ranking of Matt Ryan, which is where.

[Jason Moore]

You have him at pro.

[Andy Holloway]

I believe you should all look at my ranking of Matt Ryan, which is where he will finish.

[Jason Moore]

You have such bad takes when it comes to Matt Ryan.

[Andy Holloway]

That's okay. Like, I feel like skip it down here because I'm happy to talk about Matt Ryan.

[Jason Moore]

No, we will give you. Trust me, you will be the one to talk on Matt Ryan because you have him at 13 after a number two fantasy season. No doubt about it.

[Andy Holloway]

I just sounds very Matt Ryan.

[Jason Moore]

It could be Matt Ryan, but I just feel like it's so disrespectful to go from 2 to 13.

[Andy Holloway]

Is it disrespectful to go to from 2 to 15 because that's what he did a couple years ago.

[Mike Wright]

That was disrespectful for us.

[Jason Moore]

It was fantasy owners. All right, we'll move on from Baker. The big deal with Baker is you're adding one of the best wide receivers in the league, arguably the best, to a. An ascendant talent. You've got elite talent out of the backfield. You got elite talent on the outside, you got elite talent at the tight end position, and you got a great O line. You got everything going in that direction. But you need him to, you know, he's got to go from 27 touchdowns to the 40 range for. For a number five ranking to come.

[Mike Wright]

Through or the 35 rank in the low 30s. But he also was only around 3700 yards. So get that up to 43, 4400 yards and then you'll be all right.

[Jason Moore]

Carson Wentz at 6, maybe surprising for fantasy owners as well. DeSean Jackson rejoins the fold in Philadelphia. Hopefully a healthy Alshon Jeffrey and company. Look, last year, didn't finish the season again. Was playing pretty good, though. Very nice Completion percentage to start the season. It's all about looking at whether you believe Philadelphia is going to get back on track.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, I've got the pros and cons for Wentz very easily. He really only started 10 games and averaged basically 23 fantasy points per game, which puts him in the upper tier of quarterbacks during that stretch. And he's got the best wide receiving core he's ever had. You've still got Zach Ertz. You've still got Alshon Jeffrey. They add DeSean Jackson a second year for Dallas Goddard. I love the weapons, love everything here. I would. I have him at six. I. That was, that was before the latest report that I heard about the, you know, the rehab and what's going on with the back. Because similar to Cam Newton, who we've got next, I've got cam down at 9. I like all these guys in the tier, so why would I risk myself? I can make all the arguments as to how good Carson Wentz is. Same with Cam Newton. But I want to try to avoid the people who have like, I don't need to draft either one of them.

[Jason Moore]

You would take the best value of the tier.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, the best.

[Jason Moore]

If you were going to force yourself into a draft pick. And I get it. Look, Carson Wentz has to run the ball. If he doesn't run the ball, he doesn't belong here.

[Andy Holloway]

He's okay, not great.

[Jason Moore]

He never had a great game last year, in all the games he returned, he ran for 93 yards on the season.

[Andy Holloway]

What?

[Jason Moore]

That's it.

[Mike Wright]

Really?

[Jason Moore]

So that's the difference. I mean, he just wasn't the same Carson Wentz you got when he was break, you know, MVP candidate. That's what I have. 34 for 93. Am I wrong?

[Mike Wright]

Just making sure. No, that's right.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. I was about to double check that. I mean, I'm just double checking, but no great games. And the reason is, is he's not running the football and he did not have enough weapons. Did not, you know, he just didn't deliver the big time games well.

[Andy Holloway]

We kind of expected him to run less coming back off of that knee injury in year one. And then in year two, he'd run more. Except now in year two, he's dealing with a back injury. So is he going to. Is he going to do the same 9.3 yards per game?

[Jason Moore]

He would be a quick drop in this tier in our rankings that you'll probably see in the ultimate draft. Get moving forward. If he does not show that he's going to Be healthy. And he's able to do it. Now Nick Foles isn't there. They don't have the fallback plan. Not anymore. Cam Newton comes in at number seven. I have him at 10, Jason at nine, Mike at six. He could do the reverse. He could do the reverse. In my mind and in my rankings, he can move up. He's probably the sneakiest of this group, you know, now that Chris Hogan's on that team.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, what an ad.

[Jason Moore]

But look, Cam Newton, when he is healthy, is always an elite fantasy football producer. Even last year, the struggles with the shoulder, 29% of his games, great week winning weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

He finished as a quarterback one despite the fact that he was not even an NFL quarterback. The second part of the year when he couldn't throw more than 12 yards.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

That's how fire he was to start the year. Quarterback to the year prior. Two years prior to that, the quarterback won.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

That's why nine quarterback one weeks, I've.

[Mike Wright]

Got him at six. But this is. Well, let's wait and see for Cam Newton.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, I had Cam when I started making these rankings. I had him at five as my number one quarterback in that next tier, that tier three group. But then I just started realizing because a couple years ago he had this surgery he had in the off season and he came back out from it totally on fire. It helped him and he was great. And so you can make the argument, I can see him coming back and being awesome, but you got to go, well, he was worse this year than he was when he got his last surgery. Also, this isn't his first, it's his second. He is obviously by nature of nature older than he was the first time around.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And so there's, you know why?

[Mike Wright]

The nature of nature.

[Jason Moore]

The great equalizer.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. So it's just one of those things where if he's healthy, he. He is.

[Jason Moore]

But see, there's a lot of if. There's if for Baker, there's if for wins, there's if for Newton. Now you believe there is if for Matt Ryan. Whereas I think Matt Ryan. I will be moving him up just on the basis of these discussions.

[Andy Holloway]

Join me. Then I will be moving him down.

[Jason Moore]

I have him at night. Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

I know I need to equalize the breaking.

[Jason Moore]

Mike has him at 5 and I get it. Look, why do we like Baker?

[Mike Wright]

Weapons.

[Jason Moore]

Weapons.

[Mike Wright]

And he's a good quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Matt Ryan have any weapons age? Matt Ryan have any weapons? Julio Jones?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, you're worried about Matt Ryan?

[Jason Moore]

Calvin Ridley, Mohammed, Sanu Devonta?

[Andy Holloway]

Freeman, I'm not worried about Matt Ryan's age. He said, why do we love Baker?

[Jason Moore]

He's a senior player, has done. Has done this before. He's put up multiple top three fantasy seasons.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, he has. What's he done every single season following those top seasons?

[Jason Moore]

Just don't like those kind of arguments.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I'm not.

[Jason Moore]

I hate those kind of arguments.

[Andy Holloway]

You can't predict that. Oh, just because every other year he has a great year and every other a down year, it's going to continue. You can't do that. And that's not what I am doing now. That's not to say that that's not true. Going from 7 to 15 to 7 to 19 to 2 to 15 to 2 to. I don't know. But here's the reason that I don't that I'm against Matt Ryan. Essentially, you look at his last four years. He's had two really great years where he threw a lot of. It's all based on one thing and one thing alone. Touchdowns. That's it. He threw 38 touchdowns in his MVP year two years ago, 35 last year. Those are great. You're going to have a great time. But the other two mixed in. The other two mixed in. It's not like he threw 30. He threw 21. He threw 20. And what happened this last year, his main red zone weapon on the ground, Devonta Freeman wasn't there. Take some of those touchdowns away. I just feel like Matt Ryan is not, I mean, put it this way, average in those last four years, including the massive MVP years and last year, just average them in touchdowns. And that's 28 touchdowns is what he has been averaging over that time. I mean, that's losing 42 points off of this last year. Now he's quarterback 13, where I've got him ranked. I don't think he is a guarantee. You've got to change at offensive coordinator. You've got Devonta Freeman and hopefully a.

[Mike Wright]

Change back to the guy he had.

[Jason Moore]

An MVP season with.

[Andy Holloway]

Nonetheless, a change from the system he just threw 35 touchdowns with. And Devonta Freeman in the running. I can't imagine the running game not getting better than it was last year, which was really bad.

[Jason Moore]

But don't you think it's a little bit pick and choose when you can rank Jameis Winston? Where I see him, you have him at like 7 tula. But that change, all the, you know, the change is bad for Matt Ryan, but the change is good for Jameis Winston. Just because Winston has never done it if Winston put up a monster season, is the change bad for Jameis?

[Andy Holloway]

No, but I'm not ranking him here because of change. Change is one of the multitude of reasons. I'm ranking him here based on what Matt Ryan himself has done over the course of his career and what the truth about Matt Ryan is and his touchdown rate. That's why I'm ranking him there. I'm just adding on that he also is having a coordinator change. I don't believe that that is necessarily better. I am a gigantic belief. Like for instance, this is dealing with the exact same human dirt cutter. Dirk Cutter is the change for both of those quarterbacks. Do you, Andy, believe that dirt cutter is a very good offensive coordinator?

[Jason Moore]

I think he's a pretty good offense coordinator.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I said very good. Please answer the question.

[Jason Moore]

No, I don't think he's very.

[Mike Wright]

Where were you on the night of the 25th?

[Andy Holloway]

Right. Bruce Arians, I think is a very good offensive mind. Would you agree with that?

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's the.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, but I mean we're splitting hair. It still comes down to talent on the field. I mean it doesn't matter.

[Mike Wright]

Ryan is a great quarterback and Matt.

[Jason Moore]

Ryan has Julio Jones and ascendant Calvin Ridley.

[Mike Wright]

Calvin Ridley.

[Jason Moore]

Ridley is a game breaker for him.

[Mike Wright]

That's the difference to me is I.

[Jason Moore]

Think he could fit. Matt Ryan could easily finish as the top three quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Again, the difference to me is not saying he will.

[Jason Moore]

I have him ranked it like 8 or 9 because of the reasons you brought up. But I'm not going to throw him six points below Jameis Winston like an insane person.

[Mike Wright]

Is Julio Jones Call Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Stephen A. Smith entered his call, answered his call.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm talking about that. Out. That's disgusting.

[Mike Wright]

He entered his.

[Andy Holloway]

You said that a lot like Steven Shamu is fine. You could call me Shamu. I'm fine with that. I've got a few extra lbs. You call me Stephen A. Smith bad takes. Goodness.

[Mike Wright]

Julio Jones metamorphosized last year into Julio Touchdown Jones. We saw that happen back when Matt Ryan was having the years where he is. You're right. With the 20 touchdowns, 21. He wasn't playing with two first round wide receivers. Calvin Ridley is a massive difference to this offense. I don't necessarily love Calvin Ridley as a standalone fantasy wide receiver, but I think he is a massive difference to Matt Ryan being able to sustain his. His touchdown rate. It might come down a bit, but you give Matt Ryan 31, 32 touchdowns. I think that's well within the realm of Possibilities. He's never had a problem with yards ever. And he's going to be cheap. He's going. Who? People will not pay up for Matt Ryan in fantasy drafts. They just won't do it.

[Jason Moore]

They're not 703 right now behind Brees, behind Watson, just ahead of Wilson. They're going to pay him higher. They're going to take him higher because of the number two finish.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me make. Yes, they will finish.

[Mike Wright]

Number two is going in the seventh round.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let me make my final point on Matt Ryan. Week 1. Were the Falcons considered a very likely super bowl contender of last year going into last season? Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

100%. In week three, were they? No, they were dead. Why? Anybody remember they lost all of their defense? Their defense just got destroyed. They lost all their best players to season ending injuries and then they were given up 43 points a game. 37. 41, 29. I mean, they were giving up monster points. So Matt Ryan's got to air it out and score touchdowns like they can't win the way that they wanted to. And they. I mean, they were in complete shootouts week in and week out.

[Jason Moore]

There's only one way to settle this.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's do it.

[Jason Moore]

Top 10 finish for Matt Ryan.

[Andy Holloway]

Put me down.

[Mike Wright]

Of course I'm in on that water bet.

[Jason Moore]

Now I want the record to show because people ask this question. We're going to do a better job tracking and posting the water bet results this year because Al Borland, the producer from the Spitballers podcast who's sitting behind the desk next to Judge Giamatti himself, he's going to make sure that we stay on top of these. We post them to YouTube. He's got his thumbs up.

[Mike Wright]

We got the thumb.

[Jason Moore]

The thumb is up. Just one, but.

[Mike Wright]

Well, two would be ridiculous.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Have you ever given two thumbs up?

[Jason Moore]

Just like two. That's a little over the top.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Those have to come. Those have to be immediately following the kids.

[Jason Moore]

When's the last time you've given a real thumbs up in general? Just like for a good reason?

[Andy Holloway]

Like thumbs up all the time to kids?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, to an adult. I'm talking about like, when's the last thumbs up you've given to an adult?

[Mike Wright]

Wow, a thumbs up to an adult. Never.

[Andy Holloway]

It's been a minute.

[Mike Wright]

Never.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe.

[Mike Wright]

Maybe like, only like when I'm doing the scene from Gladiator.

[Jason Moore]

What if somebody's like, you're.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that always ends in thumbs down for me. Always. I only pull this out when I know it's gonna Be negative.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah. Okay. I don't think we do that anymore. We don't drink milk in public. Once you're past a certain age and we don't give weights, we don't get summed up.

[Mike Wright]

Nah, I'll get milk.

[Jason Moore]

A glass of milk at a restaurant.

[Mike Wright]

If I'm at like an IHOP or a Denny's because I already hate myself. I am fine getting the glass. I'll take the milk over the oatmeal.

[Andy Holloway]

But you don't do chocolate. You get white milk.

[Mike Wright]

No chocolate milk.

[Jason Moore]

Wait, is that a hashtag? Not a sponsor after that. Denny's endorsement.

[Mike Wright]

Look, I love pancakes.

[Jason Moore]

I want them to be filled.5 cents each.

[Andy Holloway]

Come at me, Cracker Barrel. Yes. Not Denny's.

[Jason Moore]

Glass of milk at Denny's, then. It's permitted. All right, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees around out the top 10. Apparently we're gonna have a second quarterback show. Brooks, this is. This just in. Breaking breaking news.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, we are.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You knew that. Okay, so number nine, Russell Wilson. I've got him at seven. Jason eight. Mike all the way at 14. Dare I say this is your Matt Ryan moment? Share. Share your hate for Russell.

[Mike Wright]

It's not hate. Remember that stat I talked about at the beginning of the show where quarterbacks eight through 14 were. There was a, like a one point difference. I just don't like the way that things are going for the offense for Seattle.

[Jason Moore]

Healthy Doug Baldwin doesn't intrigue you?

[Mike Wright]

Well, here's. Here's the thing. Patrick Mahomes, you know, insane regret touchdown regression is coming for Matt or for Patrick Mahomes, who threw at a touchdown rate of 8.6. Russell Wilson was at an 8.2. Like that's not happening again for Russell Wilson. If it, if it drops into the.

[Jason Moore]

Sixes, which happen to Russell Wilson, though.

[Mike Wright]

But he's not going to throw in the eights, even if it comes down to the six, which is. That's a really healthy.

[Andy Holloway]

That's top of the NFL.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's Aaron Rodgers career. That's. That's someone who throws a ton of touchdowns every single year. You will be disappointed that you have Russell Wilson.

[Andy Holloway]

If you look at, you know, the amount of targets and a perfect pass rating to Tyler Lockett, who was scoring a touchdown every week. If you assume that Tyler Lockett's going to have some regression on the touchdown side, you have to assume the same thing for Russell Wilson. Unless you're going to give them all.

[Jason Moore]

Back to Dougie B. Wilson's fantasy finishes in his career 10, 8 3, 3, 11, 1 9.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Last year we saw a little bit more of even. You know, even with the efficiency number nine. Maybe that adds a little bit of ammo to your argument, Mike. Maybe he is more appropriately where we have him. 9, 10, 11 range.

[Mike Wright]

It's. And it's not him. I love Russell Wilson. I wish Russell Wilson was the quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Schadenheimer's doing that. It's not you, it's me.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they wanted to run. They want 1985 football, and it works. So they're going to do it again.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's what I was saying earlier. When it comes to the Lions and the Seahawks, those are two teams that don't just want to run more. They want to run everybody.

[Mike Wright]

Pete, it's. It's third and eight. We're going to run.

[Jason Moore]

Russell may run away. That's what my New York second fewest passing attempts in the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

Drew Brees rounding out the top 10. Mercifully, Jason's incredibly bullish Jameis Winston take did not push Winston into the top 10, but just barely. Even a guy like Mike, who loves Russell Will or Jameis Winston tempered it. Yep, There's a lot of upside there. But Drew Brees. Jason, you are a big Drew Brees fan. Last season, he ended up throwing for just a hair under my guy.

[Andy Holloway]

No, that was Mike.

[Jason Moore]

4,000 yards, 32 touchdowns, five interceptions. I think we know who Drew Brees is now.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's really good. It was hard for me because I want to be on Drew Brees, you know, team Brees. That's great. But as I. As I put him in this group, I kept just moving him back one spot.

[Jason Moore]

He's a year or two ahead of where Brady is.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Like Brady, you've been declining the fantasy production due to age and like the change of the offense and peppering the short stuff like Breeze, I think had a averaged up the target. That was not impressive. At least him and Michael Thomas did.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, Michael Thomas, that's correct.

[Jason Moore]

But you do see, like, the career arc being maybe a year or two behind where Brady is.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he was not in the top 12 for consistency. Had some real dud games. But he's still Drew Brees if you.

[Jason Moore]

Got him for free. Are you starting Drew Brees for 16 games in the fantasy league?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I would love to get him for free and I would start him probably 10 of those 16 and stream against, you know, the poor matchups.

[Jason Moore]

Mike, are you. I mean, he had some real duds. Week 13, seven points. Week 15, five points. It's week eight six points.

[Mike Wright]

It's funny because Drew Brees was a, he was a very heated debate on this show all of last season where Jason, we were, Jason and I were on polar opposites and he landed as the, is the meat right in the sandwich between us and right in the sandwich. Right and right in the old sandwich. And what's funny is the, the argument on both of our sides, Jason was well, the passing attempts went from 673 down to 536. I said, yeah, they're going to go back up. But they declined again.

[Andy Holloway]

But the touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

But Breeze was still way better than Jason thought he would be.

[Andy Holloway]

We were exactly 50% right. And if you put our two takes together, that was last year's Drew Brees.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

If you took away Brees last four games, it would have been much better. QB24 in that span. Jason would have been much wronger.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

As they say. All right, that does it for today's show. But I just don't want to let you go without one more thing. Christine, Deal of the day. That would be letting you know that yesterday, one lucky bitter.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I hope it was me.

[Jason Moore]

It wasn't you. On pristineauction.com an Alvin Camara signed New Orleans Saints jersey with an inscribed Rookie of the Year 17 on it. $59. That's. That's silly. That's stupid. That's outlandish. That's pristine auction.com hundreds of daily auctions. And that does it for today's episode of the show.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely. Thank you for joining us. It's gonna be a good episode on Thursday.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, Jamis, you gonna talk about Jameis, Jason?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yes, I am.

[Mike Wright]

We'll see you then.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.