Early Top 10 WR Rankings, Dave Gettleman Speaks

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Episode: Early Top 10 WR Rankings, Dave Gettleman Speaks
Release Date: April 9, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers kick off the episode by diving straight into their Early Top 10 Wide Receiver (WR) Rankings for the upcoming fantasy football season. They discuss the methodologies behind their rankings, emphasizing the importance of evaluating offseason coach statements against team actions and player performances.

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Methodology for Ranking WRs

Timestamp: [03:50]

• Jason Moore underscores the significance of aligning coach speak with actual team acquisitions and transactions. For example, if a team vocalizes support for a player but signs additional talent that dilutes that player's role, it signals potential regression.

  "My number one method for cutting through coach speak is to compare it to what the team's actions are and see if they line up." — Jason Moore [03:39]

• Andy Holloway prefers coach statements that support his narratives about favored players, ensuring consistency in his rankings.

  "I prefer that coach speak fits my narrative and what I want them to say about players that I like." — Andy Holloway [03:39]

• Mike Wright highlights the importance of monitoring disciplined target distribution and reliability, pointing out that negative comments about players from coaches often indicate genuine concerns.

  "You’ve got to pay attention to anything that's not super positive." — Mike Wright [05:20]

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Top 10 Wide Receiver Rankings

1. DeAndre Hopkins
   Timestamp: [07:36]

   • Consensus: Number 1

   • Stats (Previous Season): 115 receptions, 1,572 yards, 11 touchdowns, 163 targets.

   • Analysis: Hopkins maintains a high target share (>30%) despite team dynamics and supporting cast uncertainties. His ability to secure first downs and minimal drop rates solidify his top spot.

     "DeAndre Hopkins is a force who can stay healthy, is an elite wide receiver and he's going to pull in a plus 30% target share." — Andy Holloway [08:01]

2. Davante Adams
   Timestamp: [11:07]

   • Consensus: Number 2

   • Stats (Previous Season): 111 receptions, 1,386 yards, 13 touchdowns, 169 targets.

   • Analysis: Adams' consistent high target volume and touchdown production make him a reliable top-tier WR. His rapport with quarterback Aaron Rodgers ensures sustained performance.

     "Devonte Adams always helped your fantasy team last year and he can come through with monster games." — Jason Moore [13:00]

3. Julio Jones
   Timestamp: [15:14]

   • Consensus: Number 3

   • Stats (Previous Season): 113 receptions, 1,677 yards, 8 touchdowns, 170 targets.

   • Analysis: Julio's consistent yardage and dominance as a field stretcher keep him near the top. Despite questions about his touchdown consistency, his overall performance remains elite.

     "He's the only wide receiver in the NFL to have over 1,400 yards in each of the last five seasons." — Mike Wright [16:16]

4. Michael Thomas
   Timestamp: [18:50]

   • Consensus: Number 4

   • Stats (Previous Season): 125 receptions, 1,405 yards, 9 touchdowns, 147 targets.

   • Analysis: Thomas leads the league in receptions with an impressive catch rate (85%) but faces concerns about target depth and consistency. His role in the Saints' offense provides a solid floor but limited upside compared to top-tier WRs.

     "He just does not have the aura and feeling that he is going to give you monster games consistently." — Mike Wright [19:23]

5. Odell Beckham Jr.
   Timestamp: [24:28]

   • Consensus: Number 5

   • Stats (Previous Season): Not specified

   • Analysis: Beckham brings elite speed and breakaway potential. However, his transition to a new team and quarterback (Baker Mayfield) introduces uncertainty regarding target volume and offensive chemistry.

     "Odell Beckham Jr. is the best pure wide receiver." — Jason Moore [26:20]

6. Tyreek Hill
   Timestamp: [31:49]

   • Consensus: Number 6

   • Stats (Previous Season): 12 touchdowns, 1,479 yards, 87 receptions, 22 carries.

   • Analysis: Hill's explosive playmaking ability makes him a top fantasy WR. Despite legal issues and potential team changes, his on-field performance remains exceptional, offering high ceilings in fantasy leagues.

     "You need to focusing on players who can just have monster win it for you game so early in the draft." — Jason Moore [34:44]

7. Juju Smith-Schuster
   Timestamp: [37:59]

   • Consensus: Number 7

   • Stats (Previous Season): 166 targets, 1,297 yards, 15 touchdowns.

   • Analysis: Juju's role in the Steelers' offense, especially with Patrick Mahomes as quarterback, positions him as a high-upside player. His target volume and potential for touchdowns make him a valuable asset.

     "Juju will be a top three again, given his talent and target share." — Jason Moore [41:24]

8. Antonio Brown
   Timestamp: [42:21]

   • Consensus: Number 8

   • Stats (Previous Season): 15 touchdowns, 1,297 yards, 168 targets.

   • Analysis: Despite team changes and age concerns, Brown's elite talent and touchdown potential keep him in the top 10. His value is contingent on quarterback play and offensive strategy in Oakland.

     "I don’t think Antonio Brown can fall out of the top 12 as much as I'm crapping on Derek Carr right now." — Andy Holloway [45:13]

9. Mike Evans
   Timestamp: [46:07]

   • Consensus: Number 9

   • Stats (Previous Season): 86 receptions, 1,500+ yards, 8 touchdowns, 138 targets.

   • Analysis: Evans is underrated due to his consistent production and high yardage per reception. Despite less PPR upside, his touchdown potential and role in the Buccaneers' offense under Bruce Arians make him a reliable WR1.

     "Mike Evans won’t be going in the first round of your draft, so he won’t be your number one pick. But that's why he's going to be of values." — Jason Moore [48:53]

10. Ty Hilton
    Timestamp: [50:50]

    • Consensus: Number 10

    • Stats (Previous Season): 1,270 yards, 6 touchdowns, 120 targets, 76 receptions.

    • Analysis: Hilton offers stability with high catch rates and yards after catch. However, his ceiling is limited by team offensive dynamics and competition for targets, positioning him just inside the top 10.

      "Ty Hilton has only played in 14 games and has been really consistent in the ones he played." — Jason Moore [52:19]

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Mailbag / Listener Questions

Timestamp: [53:48]

1. Keeper Decision: James Conner vs. George Kittle

   • Question: Devin Collin from Saskatoon asks whether to keep James Conner or George Kittle for his fantasy team.
   • Advice:
     • Mike Wright recommends keeping James Conner, emphasizing draft value and positional needs.
     • Andy Holloway concurs, suggesting that Conner offers better overall value.
     • Jason Moore supports the decision to keep Conner, noting Kittle's higher draft cost relative to the value he provides.

2. Targeting Sammy Watkins Amid Tyreek Hill Uncertainty

   • Question: Ty from Georgia inquires about the viability of targeting Sammy Watkins considering ambiguity around Tyreek Hill's status.
   • Advice:
     • Mike Wright views Watkins as having limited growth potential and suggests he may not be a top-tier WR1.
     • Jason Moore believes Watkins could elevate his performance if Tyreek Hill's situation resolves favorably.
     • Andy Holloway is less concerned, maintaining confidence in Watkins' role within a dynamic offense.

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Conclusion

The hosts reaffirm their Top 10 WR rankings, highlighting the depth and talent available at the position. They emphasize the importance of balancing consistency with high upside when drafting wide receivers and encourage fantasy managers to consider both statistical performance and team dynamics in their decisions.

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Notable Quotes

• "DeAndre Hopkins is a force who can stay healthy, is an elite wide receiver and he's going to pull in a plus 30% target share." — Andy Holloway [08:01]

• "Devonte Adams always helped your fantasy team last year and he can come through with monster games." — Jason Moore [13:00]

• "Mike Evans won’t be going in the first round of your draft, so he won’t be your number one pick. But that's why he's going to be of value." — Jason Moore [48:53]

• "Tyreek Hill is the definition of a game breaker." — Jason Moore [32:16]

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Final Rankings Recap

1. DeAndre Hopkins
2. Davante Adams
3. Julio Jones
4. Michael Thomas
5. Odell Beckham Jr.
6. Tyreek Hill
7. Juju Smith-Schuster
8. Antonio Brown
9. Mike Evans
10. Ty Hilton

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Feel free to visit TheFantasyFootballers.com for more insights, articles, and resources to dominate your fantasy football league.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

Hey, Foot Clan. We have a great show for you Today, the top 10 wide receiver rankings. Before we get into it, I want to remind you about the Ultimate Draft Kit. The Ultimate Draft Kit is the number one tool to dominate your 2019 fantasy draft. We have all the 2019 stat projections in there. We have 100 plus player profile videos. We got custom league scoring coming this year, reception, perception content, our top 200 list, risk ratings, and so much more. You can learn more about it and when everything [e-mail] this is DD Westbrook.

[Jason Moore]

Here with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and you're.

[Andy Holloway]

Listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Ah, welcome in. Excited to be here. Excited to be with all of you. Jason is here.

[Jason Moore]

I am excited to be with one of you here.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not. I'm not saying who, not saying who, but one of you. I am just thrilled. I'm thrilled to be here with you. The other one. Maybe I am, maybe, maybe not. I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

Mike Wright is here. The fantasy hitman wearing the Hat Week.

[Andy Holloway]

It's hat. Well, half of a hat week. Getting the hair trimmy, trimmed up tomorrow. I just had the brainstorm while I was listening to the introduction, the intro music to our podcast, which is sensational.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. You made that? Mm.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for pointing that out. But I mean, with March Madness and everything going on. I know. I know that there are people out there listening to this show who are the leaders of marching bands and pit bands. How has no one arranged the theme song for the Fantasy Footballers for a marching band?

[Mike Wright]

Like on a field? Yes. Like at a random high school game?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I have no idea why they haven't done that.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, you want to get in the listener league, you send that footage of your marching band playing the Fantasy Footballers theme song in the key of E, please.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

And you'll get in.

[Mike Wright]

Congrats to the championship team, by the way, from the big game.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, who cares? Well, we're.

[Mike Wright]

It's Tuesday.

[Andy Holloway]

Who was it? Who's in?

[Mike Wright]

You don't know who's playing in the championship game?

[Andy Holloway]

I heard something terrible happened to Auburn.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Auburn's out. Yeah, Virginia.

[Jason Moore]

Virginia won.

[Mike Wright]

And then Texas Tech, they want it all.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I've heard. I've heard the Virginia win.

[Mike Wright]

We may or may not be recording this show at about three in the afternoon on Monday, April 8th. You're listening to it on Tuesday, April 9th. After.

[Jason Moore]

After Virginia won.

[Mike Wright]

Virginia won the big game. All right. Hey, here's a quick question for the show today. By the way, I said it in the intro, it's a huge show. We've got our early top 10 wide receiver rankings. It's so exciting to get into these. Last week we did running backs. Today we're going to share Our consensus top 10 at this point in the season or in the preseason. But first, a quick question, guys. How do you sort through all the offseason coach speak? All of the, you know, the hype, trains coming in, the reporters are talking. Everybody looks great. What matters to you from the news? I mean, we're going to report lots of hype. What matters the most?

[Andy Holloway]

I prefer that coach speak fits my narrative and what I want them to say about players that I like.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, so if they're on your roster, somebody you've liked for multiple years. Yes, those are the truest.

[Jason Moore]

My number one. My number one method for cutting through coach speak is to compare it to what the team's actions are and see if they line up like, you know, a couple months ago, Jordan Howard was being talked up as, yeah, he's a part of our plans. He's going to be the lead ball carrier. And they're bringing in, you know, they're bringing in Benny Snell for private interviews. Then they sign Mike Davis and you're going, jordan Howard is not going to be part of their plans. And so you got to compare what's being said because they don't, you know, they're always talking everyone up. But what are they doing with their money? Are they spending it on people, on resources, you know, their time and their money? That's what I try to pay the most attention to.

[Andy Holloway]

And if they say something bad about.

[Mike Wright]

A player, those you should.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not me being facetious. If they're talking poorly about a player, there's a reason for that because right now everybody is the best and everybody is great.

[Jason Moore]

Also, everybody's injury. Super ahead of schedule. Yes. I mean, they are so far ahead. It's going great.

[Andy Holloway]

Why do we have schedules anymore?

[Mike Wright]

Well, to speak to the Jordan Howard situation, Matt Nagy said, yeah, there's a role for Jordan Howard, but we're listening. I mean, that was like the news before the trade. That was not all roses. That was not. He's going to be here.

[Andy Holloway]

But you don't generally say that about players that are really have a role on your team.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I mean. That's what I mean. You got to Pay attention to anything that's not super positive.

[Andy Holloway]

Agreed.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Hey, follow us on Instagram Instagram.com fantasy footballers. The website is the fantasy footballers.com. hot off the press, gentlemen. Couple of great articles. The Commissioner's guide to 2019 league adjustments written by Michael Weinrich. And then a brand new article from a brand new writer. Lauren Carpenter just published a David Johnson Top 5 RB discount article. Check that out on the website.

[Andy Holloway]

Making the case for dj.

[Mike Wright]

Congrats to our six new writers, by the way, who joined the team. Gonna have some great content on the website because I know if you're listening here in April, you probably can't get enough fantasy football. So we understand, because there's not enough. That's why this show exists. So no news today. Just a reminder, check out the Sleeper app. You'll get breaking news on the sleeper app. You can load your league in there. Switch to the sleeper platform for your dynasty league. And without further ado, we're going to jump right in because I want time to talk about these guys. Ready to rumble?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we've put together our lists here in April because it is not quite May or June.

[Andy Holloway]

It's not what it's gonna be.

[Jason Moore]

May. Yes. Brooks. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

You know what's funny is now that we're multiple years of Justin Timberlake trolling me, I. I get these. I mean, these messages start up three, four weeks ago. I started getting them on Twitter where anytime anybody is like, probably, they're probably penciling in their calendar, their home calendar.

[Andy Holloway]

Can't wait.

[Mike Wright]

And as soon as something from their life touches the month of May, I get it. They tweet me the month of what it's gonna be.

[Jason Moore]

May.

[Andy Holloway]

What's great, I don't know if you've seen. Timberlake is well aware of. Of what is going on with the memes and he just owns it. Because how awesome is that? You own the month of May. Like, that's when you know you've made it.

[Mike Wright]

Life goals.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Not. Not the money and the fame. He owns a month. Justin Timberlake.

[Mike Wright]

All right, top 10 wide receivers on the basis of a half point per reception. League number one, DeAndre Hopkins. Jason and Mike, you both have them firmly atop your rankings. I've got them at number two last season. 115 receptions, 1572 yards, 11 touchdowns. 163 targets.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's the big thing.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, and no drops. 0, 0.

[Andy Holloway]

The big thing for DeAndre Hopkins, coming out of 2017, where we had the small sample with him, with the Sean Watson, which when Watson was On the field, DeAndre Hopkins was absolutely dominating. Still had a fantastic season overall, but it was. There ain't, there's no way, there's no way that DeAndre Hopkins can hold up the type of target share that he was pulling in last year. And I was right.

[Mike Wright]

It went up.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it went down. It went down. But it was still well over 30% which to me now, two years in a row, that's where his target share is going to be. The rest of the guys on his crew like D or not dd, dd's in my head from the intro. Kiki and Will Fuller, these guys just can't stay on the field. Hopkins is a force who can stay healthy, is an elite wide receiver and he's going to pull in a plus 30% target share. That's why he's number one for me.

[Mike Wright]

What I love about him is if you want to give the argument against like a regression at in target share percentage of teams, targets look to first downs and he was number one in the entire league in first downs. That's the down that, that's the money down. You know that on third down they're looking to DeAndre Hopkins, they're doubling DeAndre Hopkins and it doesn't matter. 81 first downs for DeAndre Hopkins this past year been an absolute monster. Look, you really can't argue against DeAndre Hopkins. Everything's there. He's got continuity at the quarterback position. Jason is there. What's more to say?

[Jason Moore]

I mean, every argument that has been anti Hopkins from the past has now been debunked. You know, his first year breakout, was that really going to happen after he, you know, collapsed the next year under bad quarterback play? Well, no, it was real. His breakout was real. You know, four years ago he was the number four wide receiver. Then he regressed. Then he was the number one wide receiver in all of football. But, you know, you didn't know. Does the rapport with, you know, desean Watson, does it stick around? Is he really going to be hyper targeted? No, he is. Well, is he going to be good with Will Fuller out there? Well, he's got a higher split rate with Will Fuller. There's literally, I mean, the last two years he averages the 1.5 wide receiver. In fantasy he is dominant. He should.

[Andy Holloway]

He averages the 1.5.

[Jason Moore]

1.5. So if he's not first, he's second. That's the last two years. I don't know how you can take, I mean, like, look, Andy, your Number one wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Correct.

[Jason Moore]

That we'll talk about in just a second. I love, I am so excited for. But I would not. And I think he might even have the higher ceiling. But there's just no world, barring injury, where DeAndre Hopkins isn't so hyper unfathomably targeted. And equaling that with talent, to say he's as safe as it comes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, I do think that it is a little bit arbitrary at the top. I mean my, my number one guy is our number three consensus. So we'll talk about him in a second.

[Andy Holloway]

And to the point of that, I was saying that Hopkins will always be on the field. He's missed one game in his entire.

[Mike Wright]

Career, so the durability factor is not in question.

[Jason Moore]

Don't you put that on him, Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

He's fine. He's a beast.

[Mike Wright]

Is he on the Madden cover?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, this guy's never missed a field goal before. Great.

[Andy Holloway]

What are you doing? The Collinsworth jinx over there.

[Mike Wright]

Number two. It's actually devonte Adams, our consensus number two wide receiver. Jason and Mike have him at number two. You guys are just identical so far. I've got him at three.

[Andy Holloway]

You're brilliant.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

Guys are so smart. Look. Devonte Adams was the number one most consistent wide receiver in fantasy football last year. 111 catches, 1386 yards, 13 touchdowns, 169 targets last year. Devonte Adams had the second most touchdowns in football. He also had the second most targets and was tied for targets per game. Those are at least by way of the touchdown total. Those are numbers that could go down a little bit for devonte Adams from a target share perspective. They did not have anybody else to go to. Adams was dominant though. No bus games whatsoever. There was no one else with a 100%. No, like no bus last year, no bus this year for devonte Adams. So we know that his floor is extremely high. I guess my question to you is that, do you think that he is. Is there room to rise for devonte Adams or do you see his numbers regressing from last year? If you had to put money on One Direction, which would it be?

[Andy Holloway]

If you have to put the money on it, I guess I would take slightly under. But there is absolutely room for him to go up. It's all about Aaron Rodgers to me. Aaron Rodgers sustains high level fantasy wide receivers as long as someone is capable. And that, I mean, if you go back three years ago, that was the question about devonte Adams. Is he actually good enough? Well, this shocks people. It Shocks us. Sometimes guys actually get better once they get into the league. That's not who they are at the end of their career. Devonte Adams was somebody who actually rose to the occasion. He became a number one. And as long as Aaron Rodgers is there, devonte Adams is going to be incon consistent like you said, 100% of the time. That's, that's, that's an insane number. That devonte Adams always helped your fantasy team last year and he can come through with monster games. And if someone actually emerges for Aaron Rodgers as a wide receiver too, that just means that player is going to be a fantasy asset as well. It doesn't take away from AD as we've seen numerous times when there's actually a second go to weapon on the Green Bay Packers. They're just all fantasy friendly. It doesn't mean that like back when it was Jordy, I mean Jordy and Cobb, Jordy's still putting up top three numbers even if Randall Cobb's being great.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you don't, you don't worry about that even, even a third. I mean James Jones back in that time was putting up double digit touchdowns. And that's the, that's the reason it can grow because devonte Adams, the last three seasons, the only player with more touchdowns than him is Antonio Brown. I mean devonte Adams is as locked and loaded guaranteed around the end zone. Like we, we don't usually look at touchdowns as one of those sticky stats. It's not for most players that's the least predictable thing. But I don't. There are certain players that year in, year out I get rid of the, you know, that, that factoid of oh, touchdowns are hard to predict. Or you know, they, you know, they're not the stickiest because certain players like Antonio Brown with Big Ben and the number one wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers, they are the touchdown scoring wide receiver of the NFL. And I mean, well, Aaron Rodgers had a down year, 25 touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

We used to have those conversations about Jordy Nelson though. Even Jordy Nelson in his duration with Aaron Rodgers, you know, it was 15 touchdowns one year, then it was seven, then it was eight, then it was back up to 13, then it was back up to 14. So there can be variation. We're not, I don't think those are guaranteed. I'm curious and I want to transition this into this next conversation. I have Julio Jones at number one. He's our consensus number three wide receiver. Mike, you got him at three, Jason at four. You guys finally let go of each other's hands here and went a different direction. I'm sorry but I want to know the argument why you like devonte Adams more than Julio Jones since you both have him in that boat. Julio Jones, just so you are aware, 113 receptions, 1677 yards, eight touchdowns, 170 targets. That's more than DeAndre Hopkins monster back half of the year in terms of touchdown scoring. No player in the NFL had more, has had more 20 plus yard receptions since the start of 2016. He is a fourth quarter guy. He is a game breaking player. He's the only wide receiver in the NFL to have over 1400 yards in each of the last five seasons. So when you talk about floors and what you can guarantee from a position, I look at Julio and I look, I know that the maybe enough years has passed to where we don't look at him as a player that can score 13, 14 touchdowns. I still think he can do that. I still think that's a possibility. And you see the second half of the season where he scored in almost every game.

[Andy Holloway]

He was Julio Touchdown Jones at that point.

[Mike Wright]

He was. So why do we like Julio has a longer, a longer history of purely dominating performances. Why do we like Devon? Why do you both like devonte Adams a little bit more than Julio Jones?

[Jason Moore]

Touchdowns? Yeah, the reason is the touchdowns. I mean we joke that it's Julio Touchdown Jones just because he was finally scoring touchdowns. But it's not just like oh, the beginning of last year he wasn't a dominant touchdown scorer. If you look at the last three seasons, right, the last three seasons where Julio's dominated, you take his touchdown total and you say you know what, I'm a double it. I'm going to give you twice as many touchdowns. You'd still have to add one more before he equals what devonte Adams has had over that time. So yeah, he is much more dominant from a possession full PPR standpoint. But those touchdowns win in fantasy. And so that's why I just, I'm locked in as a true believer of, you know, I would put my money on double digit touchdowns barring injury for devonte Adams, I would put my money on not. And I also have a little bit of fear of slight regression for Matt Ryan. There is still a chain. I know it's going back to an offensive coordinator that you know is not just new but back again Backstreet boy style. And you know, but you look at Matt Ryan's history really up and down, up and down, up and down. And last year he had a very up year while their running game was injured. If Freeman is back, I. Those are some of the reasons why I love Julio.

[Mike Wright]

In his last nine games, he's done everything he can to convince you this is. This he can turn over a new leaf and find himself into in those games.

[Andy Holloway]

But there's just such a long history of Julio only hit the double digit touchdown mark once, which is. That's ludicrous for a player who has dominated the league for as long as Julio has.

[Mike Wright]

So rather than jump on the bandwagon over the last eight games, you're going to lean more towards the last three years for his career?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct.

[Mike Wright]

He seems like a lock for 1500 yards though.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

I won't disagree there.

[Mike Wright]

Number four, Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas coming in at number four.

[Andy Holloway]

This is Jason. This is your doing.

[Mike Wright]

Jason's got him at three, I've got him at five. Mike has him at six. Last year he was great. 125 receptions, 1405 yards and nine touchdowns. I think the most impressive stat if you're. And you know it probably if you're a Michael Thomas owner and you've obsessively watched him play. 85% reception percentage. Last year he was targeted 147 times. He caught 125 of them.

[Andy Holloway]

That's madness.

[Jason Moore]

That's just stupid.

[Mike Wright]

And that's how you lead the league in receptions. One part Drew Brees targeting you 147 times, one part sticky hands. Now the strange thing about Michael Thomas is that. And maybe it's just me, we can look at the numbers, but not just you. But he just does not have the aura and feeling that he is going to give you monster games consistently. And I think that has to do with this stat. Lowest depth of target, 7.6, which are all those upper echelon guys. The seventh lowest in the league of qualified players. 7.6 yards per target.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And that goes hand in hand with his high percentage rate. Right. They're.

[Andy Holloway]

They're. High catch rate.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, his high catch rate. I mean he busted in a quarter.

[Mike Wright]

Of his games too.

[Jason Moore]

Him and Drew Brees are so locked in together. The reason I have him so high is simply a standpoint of, you know, he comes into the league year one as a rookie and rookies don't usually break out at the wide receiver position. He was the number seven guy in fantasy football. He was. Has been in the top half of the wide receiver ones the last two years. He's just as consistent as they come. I love good offenses. I don't fear a Regression for Sean Payton and Drew Brees the way that I do for, say, the Atlanta Falcons needing to throw quite as much as they did. So it's more of a safety risk mitigation. He's not. He is not as dominant as Julio can be. He is not as dominant as devonte Adams. But I just. He is one of those guys that I think he has his consistency and the idea of him just really disappearing, it's not going to happen.

[Andy Holloway]

But for consistency, I mean, you can go through our top 10 here and last year, there's only one player who busted more than 20% of the games and he was up at 25. One out of every four games. You were mad that Michael Thomas was in your fantasy line.

[Jason Moore]

That sounds. That sounds like, oh, my gosh, one out of four, 25% bust. Right? It's really high. That's actually. It's not. It's not very high. It's very average for the top 24 wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not even in top four.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, right.

[Andy Holloway]

We're talking top five guys right now.

[Jason Moore]

But. And you're also only looking at that year. If you look at that same statistic over the last three years, he's among the leaders. So, I mean, I'm not worried about the few games that is, you know, especially at the beginning of last year.

[Mike Wright]

Is there a chance he gets. I mean, Mike, is there a chance you're feeling the burn over from weeks 12 on where he had like four bus games and six games. If you were a fantasy owner that had Michael Thomas at the end of the year, you probably didn't win a title or you had to fight through his performances instead of winning because of him over the last few weeks. I mean, 5.8 points in week 12, 6.5 points in week 13. Here's one of the. I mean, here's one of the reasons that I hesitate about Michael Thomas over a guy like Julio Jones. I think John Payton, Drew Brees, that offense, they're fine winning however they want to win, they're fine. If they could find two or three more wide receivers, value guys in free agency, draft a player and they could use them to win the game. I don't think they need Michael Thomas to bear the load that Atlanta needs Julio Jones to bear.

[Andy Holloway]

And I just think that the rise that Michael Thomas had throughout his career, I mean, third year in that was the best year of his career, over 1400 yards. I just, I think that the way they use Michael Thomas in the offense as not really the field stretcher, I mean, they have the guys that do that for him. He's kind of a, you know, in the middle of that, in the middle of a possession receiver and a field stretcher. I just think we're, we're capped out where Michael Thomas will be for fantasy. Unless somehow the nine touchdowns jumps up to 13, 14. That would be to me, how he would jump up into the top three.

[Mike Wright]

All right, turning over to Odell Beckham Jr. Coming in at number five. Mike and I have met four. Jason, you got him at six. Look, Beckham is a. I mean, we could talk about Odell Beckham Jr. For a long time, but it's. Yes, he's a, he's a strange one to look at for a number of reasons. One, he's been banged up, had the injured season. Two, he's changing teams. I mean, you got a new quarterback, new home, you're heading to Ohio. And look, we know how great of a player he is. We know what he does on the field. Will it translate to the same type of performances with Baker Mayfield in Cleveland? I mean, we projected certain things for Jarvis Landry that didn't come to fruition last year. And not everybody was on the, you know, bullish Jarvis Landry side, but we did look and say, man, he had such a target share in Miami. Now he goes to Cleveland. It's just going to be really difficult to have all the, all the stars aligned. The quarterback and the offensive game plan and the offensive coordinator and the way that everybody up and down the coaching staff feels about a player can change things.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I have Odell Beckham at number four. And I'm admittedly, I'm having a very hard time with personal bias because I got Beckham at 4. Like he's changing teams, which is a really big deal. And I'm, it's hard for me to not write it off because I think that Baker is a great quarterback. Odell is going to be fine. It'll be the number one guy, even though there's tons of weapons there. Meanwhile, I've got Antonio Brown. I'm like, why am I worried about Brown? Because he's changing teams. That's why I'm worried about a Tony Brown, which does not make sense. So I need. Jason, you, you seem to be the most level headed about Odell Beckham here. Talk me off of my, my Cleveland Browns express.

[Jason Moore]

So you're saying why you're so. You're still super high. And I get it.

[Andy Holloway]

I love Odell even though he's changed teams, but I hate Antonio Brown because he's not hate. But I've moved him down because he's changed the team.

[Jason Moore]

But the difference is one is upgrading their quarterback, one is downgrading their quarterback at this point in the career. Odell Beckham, I believe Eli Manning is inferior to Baker Mayfield. So he is, I know, crazy insane thought.

[Mike Wright]

That's when the voice of public opinion would jump in if there was one.

[Jason Moore]

But the, hey, you know Derek Carr.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, this is Dave Gettleman over here. I could have traded Eli for Baker. I turned it down. Yeah, I shut it down.

[Jason Moore]

So you know that it was that.

[Andy Holloway]

What Dave Goodtleman sounds.

[Mike Wright]

Sounds a lot like Donald Trump all of a sudden.

[Jason Moore]

My bad.

[Andy Holloway]

We got all the best quarterbacks.

[Jason Moore]

But the reason I have like, I think, I think Odell Beckham Jr.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll make him raspy next time.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he's younger than Brown. That would be another reason. He is far younger.

[Jason Moore]

Odell Beckham Jr. Is in my opinion the best pure wide receiver. Like I think he is number one, absolutely dominant and in which case team doesn't matter. Quarterback doesn't matter as much because you can give him a little slant route and he'll juke a guy and take it to the house.

[Mike Wright]

Third most broken tackles, by the way, at the position since 2016.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. And that's what's missing a lot of games. That's what I'm talking about.

[Mike Wright]

You know who number one is, by the way?

[Andy Holloway]

Is it Antonio Brown by a lot?

[Mike Wright]

No, it's not Tyree Kill. There's nobody in our top 10 or top 20.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, golden Tate.

[Mike Wright]

Golden Tate by a wide margin, a lot of screens.

[Jason Moore]

But the reason I'm lowest on Odell Beckham at number six is because the target volume as the complete and utter dominant one that he had for New York. We don't know. We don't know coming over here, but from what we saw last year in the. In the small sample that we have with Freddie Kitchens, with the weapons that Cleveland had, Baker spreads the ball around. Baker's going to throw to who's open. He's not trying to make sure David and Joku dominates or that Jarvis Landry is the number one guy and he's not. I don't think he's going to do that with Odell Beckham. Now Odell Beckham will lead in targets and he'll make the most of them. He's on a better offense. So if he finishes the number one wide receiver, awesome. I think you could see that happening. But I believe he will have a Total reduction in his targets, which just hurts fantasy value. And because of the changeover and the fact that he's not just the clear number, I mean, there are a lot. Jarvis Landry in Joku, even Chubb, Duke Johnson. Yeah, Duke, Johnson, Calloway.

[Andy Holloway]

Does Odell Beckham have an injury problem?

[Jason Moore]

And that's the other issue is. Yeah, I mean, he's played one year, making it 16 games. He had a 15 in there. But I mean that, you know, he's going into his sixth season.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you think about his injuries, Andy?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think he. I think he gets a little bit banged up and I think that at the end of the day, he's Odell Beckham Jr. I mean, if you want. I know we, we got to take a quick break, but the next guy we're going to talk about. There was a lot of hesitation last off season with transitioning quarterbacks.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And that's a similar situation to Beckham and it kind of worked out for the whiteout.

[Andy Holloway]

Before we move on to that player, I want to thank today's sponsor, SeatGeek. The ticket industry has not changed in a long time. A bunch of big companies, they've been around forever. They don't really care about making the experience easier for the customer. SeatGeek showed up and they got more than 50,000. Business. Yeah, 50,000 plus five star reviews in the app store, Sea Geek is focused on making your experience as easy as possible. They pull millions of tickets from all over the web. Rates each deal on a scale of 1 to 10. Even Jason can figure that one out. It displays them on an interactive seat map so it's simple to find what you're looking for. Green dots are good. Red dots are bad. Oh, they're overpriced. I made a mistake.

[Jason Moore]

You grabbed the red, I grabbed the red one.

[Andy Holloway]

Go for all the red. You like those red dots with Sea Geek. They're helping you out. We've all got it installed on the phone. We've all had those last second purchases of, hey, you know what? I got a free night. I'm gonna go to the game.

[Mike Wright]

Yep, seatgeek.

[Andy Holloway]

Beep, bop, boop. I'm getting tickets. They're making it easy. And right now our listeners can get 10 bucks off their first SeatGeek purchase. When you use the promo code ballers, you can use that for concert tickets, sports, comedy, whatever you want. SeatGeek supports our show. Go support them. Remember, that promo code is ballers. 10 bucks off your first purchase.

[Jason Moore]

Can I just speak real quick on Beep.

[Mike Wright]

Bop, boop.

[Jason Moore]

No on the red dots. Like, Mr. And Mrs. Dots, if you're out there listening, put out a box of just the red ones. Cause there's.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait, are we talking about dots? Candy? Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Not Red Hots?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Mike Wright]

You like Red Hots.

[Jason Moore]

All right. They're a little spicy for me.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like they don't exist other than Halloween. Like, is that when Red Hots exist?

[Jason Moore]

Why? I don't want yellow dots.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel like dots could vanish from the world right now and you'd be fine and 95% of the population would not care at all.

[Jason Moore]

Count me among the five.

[Mike Wright]

I just had a. We had a family trip up to the zoo. Dots had to drive about an hour.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you bring some Dots?

[Mike Wright]

And I. Look, I'm a road trip eater. You know, I need to be eating in the car. I got some of those Sour Patch Kids.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, there you go. And I didn't eat like a decent.

[Mike Wright]

Person, and I didn't need a single yellow one. Just left him in the bag.

[Jason Moore]

What is wrong with the yellow candy? Trash. Really? No. Generally, if it's not banana, then the yellow version of candy. Chicken.

[Mike Wright]

Nobody wants to eat lemon candy.

[Andy Holloway]

I do.

[Jason Moore]

You do?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And you won't eat lemon cookies?

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Mike Wright]

What is wrong with you?

[Andy Holloway]

Because a lemon is supposed to be sour. A lemon is not supposed to be sweet.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, gosh. You never had lemonade.

[Andy Holloway]

I have, and I like it sour. Like my takes.

[Jason Moore]

Like your face.

[Mike Wright]

Don't put sugar. Did you put sugar in this lemonade? Take it out.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I just. You make lemonade or you cut it in half and squeeze those.

[Mike Wright]

You said like his face.

[Andy Holloway]

He's got a sour, low key insult over there.

[Mike Wright]

Pucker face. All right, listen. Beep, bop, boom, Tyreek Hill. We talked all about all these different regression markers for possible downsides to Tyreek Hill transitioning from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes. And maybe it's not the template for every player, but it sure went well for Tyreek Hill. He was fantasy's number one wideout last year. 12 touchdowns, 1479 yards. He runs the football. 22 carries on the season, 87 receptions when he went off. You won your week.

[Jason Moore]

This is really just about, you know, right now at this time of the year. It's. It's one of those, like, we don't know what's going on with, you know, the NFL is going to wait until the investigation is done, and then. So there's risk right now if that was gone and he's exonerated and, you know, he didn't have anything to do with it. And he's playing 16 games.

[Mike Wright]

Where is he then?

[Jason Moore]

Five might be too low. I mean, I would certainly look at taking him in the top three. I would, I would. You know, right now I'd rather have.

[Mike Wright]

Tyree Kill than Michael Thomas. Yeah, for sure. I knew Tyreek was going to play.

[Jason Moore]

I do as well.

[Mike Wright]

And look, he's the definition of a game breaker. I mean, 2720 plus yard plays last season, that's the most in the league. That means you're getting basically twice the game. He's catching the ball and has a chance to turn on the jets. 11 yards per target. The actual opposite of Michael Thomas. That's the best in the NFL.

[Jason Moore]

The argument against Tyree Kill as a player has always been he caught too many of his touchdowns from long distance. That's not repeatable.

[Andy Holloway]

He did not score in the red.

[Jason Moore]

Zone two years ago because he did not need to.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he doesn't.

[Jason Moore]

And that's the thing with him. You just.

[Mike Wright]

He's got to take a knee on the one to start pumping up those stats.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, no player in the NFL is as fast, speed wise in pads. He just, I said this the other day. I feel like defenders, when Tyree Kill gets the ball and you're the defender, that's like, you're up. Go get them in there. I want their inner monologue. My inner monologue would be like, oh.

[Andy Holloway]

I would instantly grab the hamstring.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Like as soon as we're lined up, the snap goes off.

[Mike Wright]

I want to see one of those 40 yard dashes with Jason, but where they give him the like, oh, they superimpose over. No, no, I want the multi second head start for Jason. Like, I want to know how many yards Jason could go.

[Jason Moore]

I am five yards away from the 40 and he would when he starts and I'm like, I got this, guys.

[Mike Wright]

That would just be very, very fun to see.

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks is highlighting his consistency rank because he was tied for 15th and that's what you get.

[Mike Wright]

You are going to get that with Tyree. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what you're going to get.

[Mike Wright]

Every once in a while.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's why you just make sure your wide receiver too is nice and safe.

[Mike Wright]

He was limping for half the year.

[Jason Moore]

Now, I've talked about this and he.

[Mike Wright]

Still put up 12 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

I've talked about this in previous years, but based on, you know, a lot of work that we've done in spreadsheets behind the scenes, I truly do believe in and honestly this speaks to myself as something to remember because it's against my ranking of Michael Thomas and I might need to adjust this. But the value of high end wide receivers, when you're going to be drafting a wide receiver early, you want the big explosive games more than the consistency. That is like I remember making a note to myself two years ago that that's something I wanted to remember because you can find other you later in the draft off of waivers. Very easy to get a consistent weekly output from the wide receiver you choose to start. That isn't going to just, you know, completely vanish. It is not easy to find wide receivers who can just have monster win it for you game so early in the draft. You need to be focusing on players who can, you know, Tyree Kill.

[Mike Wright]

And I guess before we move on, it is worth reminding people what's going on with Tyree Kill right now. There is, there's simply reports of him being named in on a police report regarding a case with a child, potential child abuse. We don't know his involvement. We don't know what the investigation will bear out. All we know is that Tyreek Hill has a pre NFL history with domestic abuse. And anything that deals with abuse of a child, anything that deals with having a history before the NFL puts you at greater risk of more severe punishment in the NFL. And obviously we want justice to be had in whatever case is taking place, whether that that bears out on Tyree Kill or not. But we have to talk about the fancy implications either direction. And right now people are trying to unload Tyree Kill. People are looking at it as an opportunity to buy Tyreek Hill.

[Jason Moore]

And I don't blame either side. I mean the pendulum from a fantasy perspective is Tyree could never play another game in the NFL for the rest of his career. It's not, it's that far. If it comes out in the negative and he's guilty of that along with his previous history, I don't see another team giving him a chance on the.

[Mike Wright]

On the Tyree Kill as a fantasy force side. Listen to this. He scored three times the fantasy points than the top wide receiver for the 49ers and the top wide receiver for the Redskins. So your, your wide receiver one. If I said before the season, Jason, you can have three Josh Dachshund or one Tyreek Hill, you would have been losing the Josh Docks inside of that.

[Jason Moore]

I probably would have taken the kill.

[Mike Wright]

Before last year though. You wouldn't have number seven on our consensus top 10 wide receivers. We already brought it. You know Mike, you brought up Kiki intro the show. Yes, we talked about. No, I'm sorry. Dee Dee intro the show.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you finished off our Mario.

[Mike Wright]

Kiki was in the middle. And then now we've got juju.

[Jason Moore]

Kiki Dee Dee juju.

[Mike Wright]

So we're at the juju portion.

[Andy Holloway]

How is that joke managed to survive legs on this show?

[Jason Moore]

Because it's the music from possibly the best game of all time.

[Andy Holloway]

I throw out hundreds of horrible, horrifically jokes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the chicken tender one on the last show.

[Andy Holloway]

Not I apologize for nothing.

[Mike Wright]

We know.

[Andy Holloway]

But somehow Kiki didi juju.

[Jason Moore]

That's the one.

[Mike Wright]

It's just catchy, Mike. Bad jokes that are catchy are at least catchy.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll make them poppy.

[Mike Wright]

You got to make yours rhyme at least.

[Jason Moore]

Can we all agree that juju at number seven, which is where I personally have him ranked. Can we all agree it's way too low? No, way too low.

[Mike Wright]

Well, where does he belong?

[Jason Moore]

Number one, baby.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. It's perfect timing to talk about juju because this Antonio Brown juju. Smart man.

[Andy Holloway]

What is Twitter going on?

[Mike Wright]

Look, the question that I have. Let me just drill down juju for you. 166 targets last year. 4th most in football, 89 yards a game, 7th most in football, the 5th most yards in the league. I just want to know what the outcomes are for juju. He was the wide receiver nine last year. We have them at seven, seven and eight. Do you see those numbers which were at the upper top, the high end part of the league? Do you see them staying the same or do you see them with opportunity to grow? Because my only concern about juju is that you've seen this breakout season. I love the player. He's super young. He's great. Big Ben's nearing the end of his career. No more Antonio Brown to take coverage away. I think we've talked about it on the show quite a bit, but I just wonder how tapped he is. I wonder if 7, 8 is right where he's going to finish. I think we might have just got it right at seven.

[Andy Holloway]

It's all about the touchdowns because the target, the receptions, the yardage, it is there. But you give juju three more touchdowns. So now he's just at double digits and now he's sitting right around the wide receiver 5. And that's not talking about. You're giving him Antonio Brown levels of touchdowns where it's 13 plus, because then he's easily, easily in the top four, probably in the top three. So Jason, I lean more with Jason side Of it's possible we have him too low.

[Mike Wright]

Do you think he leads the league in targets?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think he's going. If he's not a league leader he's going to be top three because I mean look, I know part of it is Antonio Brown, right? Antonio Brown. So good he's demanded the targets. He's just an unbelievable talent. But the other part of it is Big Ben. He gets a rapport and he's going to hyper target him. If you look at the last, what is the last six years? This is no small sample. Antonio Brown has averaged a 16 game pace of 178 targets. That's gone.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

And you've got a clear number one rapport in juju with him. So yeah, I mean juju will be a. If he doesn't lead the targets, the NFL and targets, he's going to be top three and his talent alone. I realize he has not had the coverage that Antonio Brown, that's a big question ever received. I realized that he's in the slot.

[Mike Wright]

More than anybody threw more than anybody.

[Jason Moore]

What's that?

[Mike Wright]

They threw more than anybody in football.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

And last season. So you transition a little bit to you know, more of a James Connor.

[Jason Moore]

I think they're going to be balanced enough. But I mean the last six years was the, you know the data I was just using that wasn't just from this one single season of throwing the ball more.

[Andy Holloway]

And in the last six years also to your point, Jason, Antonio Brown has only scored fewer than 10 touchdowns once. That was two years ago. But he only played in 14 games.

[Mike Wright]

Do you look at it the same breath that you would Aaron Rodgers with Green Bay where like that number one guy is going to end up in the double digit category just because of how much they throw, how much Big Ben throws.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah, I lean that way.

[Mike Wright]

So the range of outcomes for juju, could he finish the year as the number one overall wide receiver?

[Jason Moore]

100%. Yes he is.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not going to put him close to there but yes he could.

[Jason Moore]

He is so talented.

[Mike Wright]

Last year I wanted to call him a star.

[Jason Moore]

Oh a star has been born for sure. I wanted to make him a my guy but there were so much statistical things that said it's going to be really tough for him to actually succeed next to Antonio Brown.

[Mike Wright]

I think you've taken enough credit though as if he was your guy, you know what I mean?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Because he was.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean I talked to him about.

[Mike Wright]

Every you like to bring up that he was going to be your guy. So many times that he basically is your guy and then you get credit.

[Andy Holloway]

Did I. How many times have I brought like guys? I was so close. Patrick Mahomes was almost my guy last year. I was so close.

[Jason Moore]

But there's a difference between when I actually love a player and you just making something up.

[Mike Wright]

That's true.

[Jason Moore]

That's. That's going to be the best.

[Andy Holloway]

Tomato, tomato.

[Mike Wright]

Antonio Brown, you get your moment here. Number eight. So we've all got him. Well, I don't.

[Jason Moore]

You have him.

[Mike Wright]

I have him. Flip flop with, with juju. Antonio Brown. We have markings as our consensus number eight wide receiver for 2019. Last year, 15 touchdowns, led the NFL 168 targets, 1297 yards, double digit touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. I think that we all agree on a few principal points with Antonio Brown. Number one, I don't think any of us believe that he's done by way of age, like he's too old. Number two, I think we all agree his season may come down to one person only. Derek Carr or whoever plays quarterback comes down to that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Just comes down to can. Can Derek Carr or whomever plays quarterback do enough to stretch the field with Antonio Brown to make up for any type? Like do we expect 15 touchdowns in Oakland? I think none of us do.

[Andy Holloway]

No, certainly not.

[Jason Moore]

That would be more than half of Derek Carr's total touchdowns that he throws next year if he had. I mean that's the way that I see it. I, I don't think Derek Carr is going to throw enough. I've got him currently statted up for 28 touches.

[Mike Wright]

What's his career high? 22.

[Jason Moore]

I believe it's 32.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, 32. The year before 2016.

[Jason Moore]

Right. His MVP season. So I mean maybe he throws 33, 34 and has his best year he's got. He certainly has his best core of wide receivers he's ever had. But this is, you have to keep in mind this is a team. You know, if you look at the offensive coordinator mixed with Gruden, they do want to still establish the run and be a run first team. We'll have to see what they do in the draft. Obviously they signed Crowell. There's still room for other running backs. I just don't see like he's not going to get the same targets that he's had. He's not going to get 178, 16 game pace target. I don't, I don't see that happening in Oakland.

[Mike Wright]

Mike, what is the worst case scenario, stats wise this season? For Antonio Brown Last year, 104 receptions, 1300 yards is 1297, 15 touchdowns. Worst is worst case scenario.

[Andy Holloway]

Worst case is low end wide receiver 1. I don't think Antonio Brown can fall out of the top 12 as much as I'm crapping on Derek Carr right now. I mean, Carr in 2016, he did enough to sustain two wide receiver ones with Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. So we'll see. Because if things let that year, let's say that things bend a little bit more in the favor of Crabtree than they do for Cooper. I mean, he's pushing at that wide receiver 7 range at that point, which is right around where we have Antonio Brown. So I feel very confident and comfortable where we have him right now.

[Mike Wright]

All right, it's time for the most underrated player in the top 10. Mike Evans coming in at number nine on our rankings. I think he's the most underrated. Kyle, our editor in chief asked the question, is he perennially and forever 25 years old? It sure seems that way considering the fact that, what, he's starting his sixth season, sixth season in the NFL. But last year, in case you weren't paying attention, which was an easy thing to do in Tampa, probably a preferred thing to do. 86 receptions over 1500 yards, eight touchdowns, 138 targets, an absolute physical force, 2620 plus yard plays. That is one fewer than Tyreek Hill, who no one could stop talking about all season long. 17.7 yards per reception, third most in the league. And guys, 1500 plus yards, I mean, those aren't numbers to sneeze at.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it was the most yardage of his career. But since he came in in 2014, he has never failed to surpass 1,000 yards, a thousand plus yards in five straight seasons to start his career. I mean that's, that's at the tops. That's elite.

[Mike Wright]

He finished at wide receiver 8 last year. Despite the back and forth between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston. Bruce Arians arrives in Tampa and for any of his shortcomings, look, he put together great offenses in Arizona.

[Jason Moore]

That's. Excuse me, that's what I was going to bring up. Do you think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense is better just overall, More points scored, more yards on the year with Bruce Arians than with dirt cutter. Dirk Cutter was an offensive coach. Because I'm in agreement with you, Mike, and I'm curious, do you think Andy.

[Mike Wright]

I do.

[Jason Moore]

So. I mean, this is a step forward, I believe, for an NFL offense taking on Bruce Arians and If that's the case, this is why I'm so bullish over Chris Godwin. I love Mike Evans, I love O.J. howard. It's kind of. I see the whole Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense taking a step forward this year.

[Mike Wright]

He has a little bit lower of a floor than a guy like Julio because Julio is going to put up 100 and 100 plus receptions, whereas I think Mike Evans is probably firmly going to be in that 80 to 90 range. That's where he caps out. So in other words, you've got to turn the touchdown dial for Mike Evans.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, you do.

[Mike Wright]

If you turn that dial up, he's a top five guy. If you turn it down a little bit, the lack of PPR capability for him, it's probably going to pull him down into that 10 to 11, 12.

[Andy Holloway]

Range and yards after catch.

[Mike Wright]

Right. He just, that's not his forte.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, because he's put into bad situations, I believe. I mean, I don't think that he is missing the talent to do it, but the way that Jameis throws him the ball, it's got a lot of.

[Jason Moore]

20 yard down the field jump balls.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. And I'm getting tackled immediately.

[Mike Wright]

So I think he is one of the best values out of these names that we've brought up. And really, we're not telling you anything too surprising today on the show. We're revealing rankings, but I don't think that you don't know that Antonio Brown or juju is good about this because.

[Andy Holloway]

I agree with you that we do seem to underrate Mike Evans talking as the general public. Would you be happy and confident at this point? You're in a draft. Mike Evans is your wide receiver one.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah. I would feel fine.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I see the point you're making because, because I, I feel like I'd be ok. I should be all right, but I'm not excited.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

I'm like, okay, as long as Julio.

[Mike Wright]

Is my wide receiver too, I'm fine.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, obviously that's the nice thing about Mike Evans. Right. Mike Evans won't be going in the first round of your draft, so he won't be your number one pick. You know, hopefully you grabbed a stud to make, make it worth it. But that's, that's why he's going to be of values, because nobody is excited about him. The guys that you're not excited about who are still really, really good, those are good for fantasy football.

[Mike Wright]

Well, and that's a good thing to identify as a fantasy owner, as a, as a commissioner in your draft is look for guys that, you know, played on a team that struggled. I mean, there's going to be opportunity. David Johnson. This article that just came out on our website from Lauren Carpenter. David Johnson at least provides the potential value of a top five pick at a better draft position. Because Arizona was abhorrent, they were difficult to look at. Tampa struggled, they bounced around quarterbacks. You could easily ignore the strong end of the season that Mike Evans put up. Week 16, 18 points. Week 17, 25.6 points. Those two games, you know, oftentimes people don't see them because those guys aren't on championship teams. Ty Hilton rounds out the top 10. I have him at 10, Jason and Mike at 11. Last year he was banged up, fought through it to end the season. You know, kind of surprising. In the games he played, he only busted 7% of the time. That's kind of been the M.O. for Hilton, is that he's had kind of the up and down situation. But Andrew Luck returned with a vengeance. 1270 yards, 6 touchdowns, 120 targets, 76 receptions. This despite missing 3 games and being banged up for a number of them. Highest catch rate percentage of his career. Highest yards per game of his career. Ask the same question that you just asked Mike Evans. Would you be comfortable walking into the season with Ty Hilton as your number one?

[Jason Moore]

No, I don't believe I would. I like Ty Hilton. I mean, he's, you know, he's a wide receiver one in my rankings. But if you look back, I love what Frank Reich is doing for the Colts as a team, as an offense. He's clearly Andrew Lux one. So you're, I mean, you could be fine, but you're not excited because you look back at Ty Hilton's history and you go, okay, he's, you know, he's been in the league a long time. He's had Andrew Luck for a long time. And you, you've only had, really three years ago when he finished as the wide receiver number five. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

But two years ago he didn't have Andrew Luck.

[Jason Moore]

Sure, he was bad then, but the year before that when he had him and Andrew Luck was there, he finished as the wide receiver 2111 the year before 14 this past year, granted, in 14 games. It's just one of those things where I look at him as a back end one or a really, really high end two, but I don't see him as the target hog that I want as my wide receiver one that I'm confident is going to finish. Will you as a top 10 guy.

[Mike Wright]

While we Talk about him. Jay, will you pull up the splits and tell me what he finished from weeks 10 on as a wide receiver? I'm just curious because obviously those first couple games of the year, he was actually okay. Got injured for three or five games. But Andrew Luck was kind of figuring things out downfield. I'm curious what he was from weeks 10 on. I'm not sure. It's very high. It might be kind of right around where we have him ranked. But I am kind of curious.

[Jason Moore]

Number five.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, so he's the number number five. That's kind of what I was wondering is once we saw him with Andrew Luck and Andrew Luck was comfortable, he was back. He was doing what he was trying to do. That's a pretty good sample size from weeks 10 on.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, but you also.

[Mike Wright]

And I think that's his ceiling. I think.

[Jason Moore]

Why?

[Mike Wright]

I think wide receiver 5 is in the cards.

[Jason Moore]

I think that is his ceiling. But you have to keep in mind, they were dealing with a lot of injuries. They had no number two whatsoever. You know, Doyle was gone, and they had a. They had a rotation of a couple different guys.

[Mike Wright]

Do they have a number two now?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I like to hear him say that. They had no number two.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I mean, Eric, you realize you.

[Andy Holloway]

Just besmirched Eric Ebron.

[Jason Moore]

No, Eric Ebron is not a number two wide receiver. Yes, I apologize. You are not a good enough wide receiver, too, in mine or. Mike called him a turd.

[Andy Holloway]

I heard it.

[Jason Moore]

I have never done no. No such thing. I stood by him when he was a turd.

[Mike Wright]

Number one, DeAndre Hopkins. Number two, Devonte Adams. Number three, Julio Jones.

[Jason Moore]

You shut your mouth. You shut your mouth. Edit that out. This never happened.

[Mike Wright]

Just remember, there was a time. Number four, Michael Thomas. Number five, Odell Beckham Jr. Number six, Tyreek Hill. Juju Smith Schuster. At. Number seven, Antonio Brown. At. 8, Mike Evans. 9T by Hilton 10. And we will cover numbers 11 through as many as we can get through on Thursday's show. I think we have time for a couple mailbag questions.

[Andy Holloway]

What?

[Jason Moore]

Mailbag? Mailbag.

[Mike Wright]

All right. If you have a question for the show, TheFantasyFootballers.com you can send in your question, click the Submit a question button. You can even dial our voicemail hotline, 302-464-TFFB. We're gonna jump into a voicemail question right now. Hey, ballers.

[Jason Moore]

It's Devin Collin from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Bonjour. I have a keeper question for you guys. I have two keepers. I'm gonna keep Nick chubb for a 15th, obviously. And then I need to decide between James Conner for an eighth or George Kittle for an eighth. Half point ppr. Originally thinking Conner, but I'm worried about the Pittsburgh offense next year. Thanks a bunch. Love the show.

[Mike Wright]

That's a good question for me. It's Conner going away. Yeah. You have to look at a selection like that where you give up the same value, you're giving up an eighth in either situation and just ask yourself, where can you draft those guys? You're going to end up drafting James Conner higher than you would George Kittle. So if you want George Kittle and you want to overspend on him, you still have the better value.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you could take Kittle for a three or something like that if you want to. Do you agree? Disagree?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, no, I completely agree. It would be Connor for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Ballers Ty from Georgia, question, what do I do with Sammy Walken? Is it a good idea to target the Tyreek Hill owner in this ambiguity.

[Mike Wright]

Of his off field situation?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's my question.

[Mike Wright]

Also, Brooks is the man.

[Jason Moore]

I see how this question get on.

[Mike Wright]

Here now people know how to get their questions.

[Andy Holloway]

You have just set up a terrible example for the listeners.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Brooks's brother, let's answer your question.

[Mike Wright]

This is a really interesting question to me about Sammy Watkins. I was in this boat in our dynasty league. I think the only problem that you have when you target the Tyreek Hill owner is you're probably not going to get the kind of value you would want when you target him as kind of like an insurance policy. Like it's hard for somebody who has Tyreek Hill to go pay you big, big money for an insurance policy on their guy. They're already feeling vulnerable. They probably don't want to give, you know, everything away because guess what happens if Tyreek Hill plays now they got Tyreek and Sammy Watkins. So, yeah, you know, I think that you want to find somebody that, like I did, wants to try to, you know, strike it rich on the lottery ticket of Sammy Watkins. His values as high as it's going to be right now because of the rumor.

[Andy Holloway]

What is the actual upside though? Like, it's like Sammy Watkins is now the one.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, yes. This is great because I was talking about this with Jason and this is perfect because I don't. You weren't here and I said I believe that Sammy Watkins has leveled down from possible outcomes of his career. Like when he came in. He's been riding the coattails of the high draft capital forever, hasn't come to fruition, at some point, you level down your future ceiling. I don't think he has a top 12 type of ceiling anymore.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he could be in the top 12. But my point was, like, he doesn't just. He doesn't get to Cookie Monster and gobble up all of Tyree Kill's. He doesn't turn into that player. He's a completely different type of guy. But you still have Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback, and he's theoretically the number one wide receiver of the team.

[Jason Moore]

If Tyree Kill was gone, and I know that I am a Sammy Watkins believer, I don't believe he's leveled down at all. In fact, if you look at his numbers last year on a per game basis, they're way better than you think they were. He was a wide receiver, too, on a per game basis. And that was, you know, as he was injured, it was on target for almost 100. You know, his pace was nearly 100 targets. And that was in year one in that new system. Now he's coming into year two. If Tyreek wasn't there, I don't see how Sammy Watkins is in a wide receiver one.

[Mike Wright]

Well, because he's hurt. He'll get hurt.

[Jason Moore]

Okay?

[Mike Wright]

And look, I feel like we've been making.

[Jason Moore]

We could do that with Odell Beckham.

[Mike Wright]

Sure, but not to the extent of Sammy Watkins. Sammy Watkins had every opportunity to become Prolific with Sean McVay. Sammy Watkins had opportunities to stay healthy in Buffalo. Sammy Watkins had opportunities last year to be a premier wide receiver with Patrick Mahomes and got hurt. I feel like we've seen it, like, we've been around the block enough times. Like, the vinyl is scratched. Even the best song on the album isn't skipping. It's not a top 10 guy anymore. And obviously, I am coming from a different perspective. I traded him away because of that conviction. Look, you're making Pat Mahomes his number one guy. I'm not sure what that means still, because I don't think Andy Reid looks at. Do you think that the Kansas City Chiefs goes. They say, well, we're fine. Tyree kills gone. We're fine with Sammy stepping into that role.

[Andy Holloway]

No, they got to have somebody. But that wouldn't take away from Sammy Walken still being the number one read in the offense. I mean, him and Travis Kelsey was a Hollywood.

[Mike Wright]

I was gonna say, they'll draft somebody. No doubt.

[Jason Moore]

Hollywood.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason is calling for Hollywood Brown.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

To end up on the Chiefs.

[Mike Wright]

I'm calling for Hollywood Brown to end up on the bucks and ruin his Chris. God, no.

[Jason Moore]

Don't do that to me, man.

[Mike Wright]

All right, One more question. One more question. Isaiah in Indiana. Isaiah in Indiana, even though is a very important question. What does he say? Even though it is not likely. I just need to hear here. Someone discussed the possibility of Pat Shermer drafting his son, Kyle Shermer to play QB in this draft.

[Jason Moore]

I think it is not likely. You are. You are welcome. Isaiah in Indiana. Like I said, I got Eli, but you heard it here.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that voice better?

[Mike Wright]

It was a little bit better. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

It's me, Dave.

[Mike Wright]

You're working. You're going to be working out, gentlemen, all year long.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, I'll get it by about halfway through the season.

[Jason Moore]

It's me, Dave Gillon.

[Mike Wright]

Hello.

[Andy Holloway]

Hello, it's me.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, you're just.

[Andy Holloway]

You're Stallone.

[Jason Moore]

Barely. This is a Stallone vote this. Dave Gettleman.

[Andy Holloway]

It's me, Dave.

[Jason Moore]

Dave Gittle. That's right. David Gettle.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's a good one.

[Jason Moore]

David Gettleman's here. You are making trade. I never even looked at Drayton back.

[Andy Holloway]

Now he's a big oil tycoon. What happened there? We're not very good at voices.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

No, we're not.

[Mike Wright]

Have any of you even recently listened to David Gettleman?

[Jason Moore]

No, I have, actually, because he sounds like this. He's a pretty good voice. Guys, this is me, David, growling.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, no.

[Jason Moore]

Hit the outro. All right.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, let's get a deal on Juju Smith Schuster. Pristine Auction.com a signed Pittsburgh Steelers logo football yesterday went for $84.24. That is a JSA authentic autograph from Juju himself. Pristine Auction.com for. For Mike. For Jason. I'm Andy. For Dave Gettleman.

[Jason Moore]

For me.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodbye. One of these days. We'll get it.

[Mike Wright]

We'll talk to you on Thursday. Thanks for tuning in, subscribing and supporting the show.

[Andy Holloway]

See you next time.

[Mike Wright]

We appreciate you.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFBallies.