Early Top 15 RB Rankings + Broken Down Carr

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: Early Top 15 RB Rankings + Broken Down Carr

Episode Details:

• Title: Early Top 15 RB Rankings + Broken Down Carr
• Release Date: April 15, 2025
• Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast, the expert trio delves into the early-season rankings of the top 15 running backs (RBs) for the upcoming fantasy football season. Alongside detailed player analyses, they discuss significant NFL news, including the impact of New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr's injury on his team's draft strategy.

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1. Introduction and Episode Kickoff ([01:35] - [06:40])

The episode begins with the hosts welcoming listeners back around Tax Day, April 15, 2025. They set the stage for an insightful discussion on early RB rankings ahead of the draft, which is less than two weeks away.

• Jason Moore [03:32]: "We have our early top 15 running back rankings show today... we got the draft here less than two weeks away."

2. NFL News Highlights ([06:40] - [20:50])

The hosts transition into recent NFL updates, prominently featuring Derek Carr’s significant shoulder injury. This injury poses questions about his availability for the upcoming season and affects the Saints' draft preparations.

• Jason Moore [06:45]: "NFL Network's Ian Rapoport has reported that Derek Carr is believed to have suffered a significant injury to his throwing shoulder... this threatens his availability for the upcoming season."

Discussion points include:

• Dead Cap Implications:
  • Andy Holloway [07:37]: "The dead cap this year and next year would be a catastrophic number."
• Seniority and Backup QBs:
  • Potential backups like Cam Ward and Shador Sanders are analyzed for their readiness and impact.
• Impact on Draft Strategy:
  • Jason Moore [08:42]: "I think they're going to take one [quarterback prospect] in the first..."

Other team movements discussed include the Browns bringing back Joe Flacco and speculations around Kirk Cousins potentially moving to Cleveland.

3. Early Top 15 Running Back Rankings ([14:21] - [71:45])

The heart of the episode focuses on the hosts' individual rankings of the top 15 RBs, providing in-depth analysis based on last season’s performances, projected opportunities, and team dynamics.

Ranking Criteria:

• Opportunities per Game: Average of 19 per game for top RBs.
• Rushing Attempts: Around 240 attempts.
• Rushing Touchdowns: Approximately 10 touchdowns.
• Receiving Metrics: ~59 targets, 350+ receiving yards, multiple receiving touchdowns.
• Team Performance: Top RBs are typically on teams averaging around 9.7 wins.

Key Players Discussed:

1. Saquon Barkley ([16:34] - [20:14]):
   Ranked as the top RB due to his exceptional performance with 345 rushing attempts and 13 touchdowns last season. His efficiency and role in Philadelphia’s offense make him a safe RB1 pick.

   • Jason Moore [16:35]: "Saquon Barkley is safe where I don't worry about that team imploding."
   • Andy Holloway [18:51]: "Saquon clearly is a great pass-catching running back."

2. Bijan Robinson ([21:09] - [24:43]):
   Positioned second for his high expected points added per play (EPA). While his opportunities are promising, there are considerations about consistency and team strategy.

   • Jason Moore [21:10]: "Mike has him at 3."
   • Jason Moore [21:38]: "He had the second most total touches in the NFL last year and was only stuffed on 14% of carries."

3. Jameer Gibbs ([27:35] - [31:50]):
   Third on the list, Gibbs is lauded for his EPA per play but with cautious optimism regarding his workload consistency.

   • Jason Moore [27:56]: "Gibbs is a better fantasy football running back than Bijan. If the opportunities were equal."

4. Christian McCaffrey ([33:10] - [38:48]):
   Discussed as a top-tier RB when healthy, McCaffrey’s value is sometimes overshadowed by injury risks and team dynamics.

   • Andy Holloway [33:40]: "He's the most valuable fantasy asset over the last decade... he'd be the dude."

5. Derek Henry ([34:17] - [36:08]):
   Ranked fourth for his consistency and high opportunity volume, though some skepticism exists about his RB1 status.

   • Jason Moore [34:17]: "Derek Henry wins 22 fantasy points a game and losses 12.8."

6. Kenneth Walker ([63:35] - [66:19]):
   Viewed as a high-upside or risk due to last season’s inconsistencies and current team strategies.

   • Jason Moore [65:00]: "But he is the type of player, to me, that if it bounced right, Kenneth Walker's a top five fantasy running back at the end of the year."

7. Josh Jacobs ([47:44] - [56:15]):
   Analyzed for his strong performance but tempered with concerns over touchdown variability and offensive line stability.

   • Jason Moore [54:33]: "He was the real consistency on the offense."

8. Chase Brown ([57:05] - [59:03]):
   Positioned at number five, Brown’s versatility and performance are highlighted, though there are concerns about his draft position and future opportunities.

   • Jason Moore [57:36]: "Chase Brown is very versatile. He can catch the football."

9. James Cook ([59:03] - [61:14]):
   Ranked lower due to inconsistencies despite high touchdown numbers, raising questions about his reliability.

   • Mike Wright [60:07]: "He is nerve-wracking."
   • Andy Holloway [61:04]: "He's scary. He's not a bell cow workload situation."

10. Joe Mixon ([61:14] - [63:57]):
    Debated placement with differing opinions but recognized for his role in the Baltimore offense.

    • Mike Wright [62:30]: "Joe Mixon's still under contract for two more years. He is their primary guy."
    • Jason Moore [63:39]: "You'll probably draft somebody you love."

11-15. Additional RBs:
The hosts continue to discuss other RBs like Bucky Irving, Kyren Williams, and Chuba Hubbard, providing nuanced takes on their strengths and potential drawbacks based on last season’s performances and projected roles.

- **Jason Moore [47:44]:** _"Number 8 in our early running back rankings, we've got Bucky Irving."_
- **Andy Holloway [58:06]:** _"Jason and I have him similarly ranked. He's RB13 on sleeper."_

4. Notable Quotes and Insights

Throughout the rankings, the hosts share key insights and memorable quotes that encapsulate their evaluations:

• Jason Moore [21:38]: "He was only stuffed on 14% of carries, which was the second best number in the entire league."
• Andy Holloway [35:37]: "Henry is being drafted that way, though."
• Jason Moore [36:28]: "Derek Henry, I don't know how it goes wrong."
• Mike Wright [52:51]: "It's hard to talk you into him because I am aware... it is disingenuous of every argument I make against Joe Mixon."

5. Conclusion and Upcoming Episodes ([71:14] - [72:44])

The episode wraps up with a preview of upcoming content, including early top 15 wide receiver rankings slated for Thursday. The hosts encourage listeners to follow them on social media and subscribe to their podcast platforms.

• Jason Moore [71:14]: "On Thursday, we're going to go through our early top 15 wide receiver rankings."
• Andy Holloway [72:27]: "Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers."

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Key Takeaways:

• Top RBs: Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson lead the rankings due to their high efficiency and opportunity volume.
• Derek Carr's Injury: Significant impact on the Saints' draft strategy and quarterback depth.
• Player Consistency: Emphasis on RBs who perform consistently, especially on winning teams.
• Injury Concerns: Christian McCaffrey and others are evaluated with caution due to past injuries.
• Future Projections: Discussions focus on how team dynamics and offensive strategies will shape RB performances.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore [16:35]: "Saquon Barkley is safe where I don't worry about that team imploding."
• Andy Holloway [18:51]: "Saquon clearly is a great pass-catching running back."
• Jason Moore [21:38]: "He was only stuffed on 14% of carries, which was the second best number in the entire league."

This episode provides valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts, offering a comprehensive early-season analysis of running backs to inform draft decisions and team strategies.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

Foreign to the fantasy footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, welcome in Tuesday. Tax day.

[Mike Wright]

Oh man. Sorry everybody.

[Jason Moore]

April 15, 2025, the fantasy footballers self are back. Yeah, so you can listen up, listen in. We got our early running back rankings show today. Jason Moore is here. Mike the fantasy hitman. I'm Andy Holloway.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you know it's going to be a really excellent show. I can always tell based upon your introduction.

[Jason Moore]

Oh really? Yeah, I set the tone.

[Andy Holloway]

You set the tone. Well, today you came in a little longer than usual on your little yelling.

[Jason Moore]

You keep track. I'm sure Kyle keeps track.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, Kyle's got the stopwatch out.

[Jason Moore]

Good weekend gentlemen. Ready to talk football?

[Mike Wright]

We over under Jason Zandi or over under Andy's welcome screen?

[Jason Moore]

You know, based on the things I see people betting these days, like which arm goes into the green jacket for Rory McElroy.

[Andy Holloway]

No, is that a real one, people?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, which arm goes in first?

[Andy Holloway]

Which one?

[Mike Wright]

Which one? It, I mean it's gotta be right arm, right?

[Jason Moore]

It was left arm.

[Mike Wright]

Oh man, they got up. You got.

[Jason Moore]

You would have lost so much money, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you know, because that's where I'm doing it.

[Jason Moore]

There's the comedy of betting on absolutely anything that could happen. But even more ridiculous than that is watching people root for the thing that you can't believe people bet on. So watching them, you know, a couple guys on an Instagram reel or alive that are going left arm. Come on, left arm, left arm. Come on. The research, the research says it's gonna be left arm.

[Andy Holloway]

Come on, it's so much fun.

[Mike Wright]

I mean it's dumb, but we're in on tails.

[Andy Holloway]

We're always tails. Never fails. And it makes just, it makes that non playing time so something to watch. Just like I Mean, who cares about the coin flip except when you need it to land on tails?

[Jason Moore]

Well, yeah, if you want to get a kind of a betting market out on the welcome in, you can do that. Yeah, you know, we'll figure it out. We, like I said, we have early top 15 running back rankings on the show today. We got NFL news to catch you up on. We got the draft here less than two weeks away. Right? At two weeks.

[Mike Wright]

No, last starts on Thursday.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, it's coming soon. Rumors every day. You know, you never know what's real.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I know.

[Jason Moore]

Because we're always surprised.

[Andy Holloway]

And there are legitimately every year there are smoke screens and you know, sometimes that's used like, oh, they're bringing these guys in. They're looking at wide receivers from their top 30 visits. Ah, maybe it's a smokescreen. I don't think those are smoke screens. But when there is just blabbermouths really kind of saying what they're looking for, I feel like there's no benefit.

[Jason Moore]

That would be an amazing name for like one of the primetime sports shows, Blabber Mouths. Just call it Blabber Mouths and you know. Yeah, that's kind of what we do, isn't it? Ultimate DraftKit.com head over there, get access to the Dynasty Pass. It will be updated for the third time right after the draft. And we get a lay of the land and we see which players are gaining value based on their draft destinations. And, you know, there's all the team opportunity charts in there so you have a chance to get in there and see what teams are needing what. And you know, Mike, you've been paying attention like I have to these visits, right?

[Mike Wright]

We've got the top 30 visits. We're, we're trying to figure some stuff out. I think we've got a little bit of. We got something. We got a what a fish on the hook here. We're going to talk about all that stuff on the Dynasty pod this week.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And Kyle is half insane right now because he's been just completely digging into that level of data. And it's fun. Some of the stuff is actually really interesting to see how these top 30 visits correlate or don't correlate to, you know, position groups and whether it's a first round pick or whether that, you know, someone that made one of these top 30 visits gets drafted by the team. And the funny thing is if we just wait, just like, I don't know, a week and a half, none of it will matter. We'll Know where everyone is. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

But I mean the one that stood out was the running back visits for the Cincinnati Bengals.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

And we've got a top 15 running back show today.

[Andy Holloway]

Chase Brown is on it.

[Jason Moore]

Chase Brown is in that top 15. Top 15 as of right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. But if Travion Henderson, one of the players brought in for a top 30 visit, gets drafted by the Bengals, Chase Brown will not be in the top 15.

[Jason Moore]

No, he will not. So, yeah, we've all individually gone through and ranked our, you know, this is pre UDK stating every play, every player out. But looking at kind of where we have them right now. And we all went through an individually ranked probably around the first 30 running backs and then grabbed our consensus top 15. And we'll share that with you on today's episode. No quick question for the day because we want to get into the rankings so we'll jump right into news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

Oh well, might not be clicking that send in the car, but the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport has reported that Derek Carr is believed to have suffered a significant injury to his throwing shoulder. Suffered it last year and it threatens his availability for the upcoming season. And that the Saints have been preparing for the draft knowing about this injury. So some of the, I mean there have been quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Sounds like we got a blabber mouth quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Rumors were already swirling around the Saints, Jackson Dart, Shador Sanders, discussions around those players. Suddenly you find out your starter might not even be available. Who has so much money committed to Derek, I mean committed to him now.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh yeah, the dead cap this year and next year would be a catastrophic number. I think next year's dead cap, you can look it up, but I want to say it's around 65 million and.

[Mike Wright]

That'S next year and that's next year.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not if they cut them now. Obviously they're not going to cut him now. Nick Underhill, one of the best reporters over there for the Saints, he was tweeting about this, talking about like this is, this is a, this is a big situation. And so I, I don't subscribe to his paywalled content, so I don't know all the details, but he was insinuating that this is a bigger deal than what it seemed like a couple weeks ago.

[Mike Wright]

We got 80 million this year for Derek Carr. Should they cut him, which that's not going to happen. And next year gets next year. It's still a 59, but don't worry, when we get to 20, 27 as long if they don't do anything in the contract, it's only a cool 40.

[Jason Moore]

I just. This is a team that has two third round picks. They have two thirds, two fourths and a first and a second round pick. They do have the ability to move around. So Cam Ward is not going to be in the cards for them.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

And drafting at nine, you know, depending on who you follow, that might seem too soon for the other two quarterback prospects. I don't know. I think they're going to take one.

[Andy Holloway]

In the first, in the first.

[Jason Moore]

But if they don't, if Shador Sanders falls out of the first round and they're sitting at 40 and they have two thirds and two fours to trade up and take them with the first pick of the second round or something like that. The solution that they have on the roster right now is, I mean, Spencer Rattler.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Ben Denucci.

[Andy Holloway]

The solution is not on the roster.

[Mike Wright]

Jake Heinous. Because they. Anus, man. Come on.

[Jason Moore]

That's a fun one.

[Andy Holloway]

He's still on the roster. Yeah. The depth chart behind Derek Carr, they went winless in the games that Carr did not play last year.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, wow.

[Andy Holloway]

And so this is a team that needs Derek Carr there or they need a future quarterback. I don't, I mean personally, I don't think there is one available.

[Jason Moore]

That's where. Yeah. You and I disagree on that.

[Andy Holloway]

Right, Right. To me it's like, okay, I think Cam Ward could be a legit starter. I do think Shador Sanders can be a legit starter, but I think he needs to end up in a really good destination. I'm not sure if the Saints are there. We had just talked about Alvin Camara on a recent episode.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And Derek Carr's health issue came out really after that as far as into the public sphere. And that changes my belief on Alvin Camara's value. You know, all those Derek Carr checkdowns with that bum shoulder. Delicious.

[Jason Moore]

But we also disagree on Jackson Dart. Right. Which you were pretty.

[Andy Holloway]

I do not think you were pretty.

[Jason Moore]

Chill about him on the show.

[Mike Wright]

Have you gone back?

[Andy Holloway]

I did. I did go back and I watched. I watched several more games and I'm. I am not bullish on Jackson Dart. I don't think he's a first round.

[Jason Moore]

Quarterback as in talent. But he might get drafted in the first round, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Right. Yes, yes. He might go there. I just don't. I wouldn't have him graded that way.

[Jason Moore]

We had some other contract updates. The Browns bringing back Joe flacco on a one year deal just $4 million up to 13 million if seemingly he became a starter during the year, which the.

[Mike Wright]

Who knows? The newest thing that came out very recently was the Browns are unlikely to take Shadow or Sanders. I don't know if you mentioned that, Andy, when we were saying it, but.

[Jason Moore]

I still think it's Kirk Cousins. That's who I think is going to Cleveland.

[Mike Wright]

It could be Kirk Cousins. They would have to trade draft capital and then figure out how they're going to pay that. The salary.

[Jason Moore]

I think it's already done.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you?

[Jason Moore]

I do. I. And that's based on Miles Garrett's resigning with the team and interviews about his knowledge of who's going to play quarterback for them this year and just putting. And my thought that Kirk Cousins won't be sitting on that bench in Atlanta when all said and done, you know, I can't imagine that Miles Garrett's, you know, excited about, oh, I know. Joe flacco signing a $4 million deal. You're not going to know who you would get in the draft. I think it's Kirk Cousins. We'll find out.

[Andy Holloway]

You get Kirk Cousins and Travis Hunter there. That would be a really interesting.

[Mike Wright]

We still think Kirk Cousins is good.

[Andy Holloway]

I think Kirk Cousins, the dude got.

[Mike Wright]

Benched for a team trying to get into the playoffs.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that another year removed from that Achilles injury could be good for him. He's not the age where I think he has to have fallen off. Obviously, he had a massive injury and he played like crap down the stretch. But he also had. I mean, it was this last year where he had a 500 yard throwing game. He did.

[Mike Wright]

He had one. He had that one incredible game.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it was like 504 or something like that. And so I don't know. I mean, I'm not saying Kirk Cousins is going to take a team to the Super Bowl. I'm just saying if you compare Kirk Cousins to Kenny Pickett, it's a much better upgrade.

[Jason Moore]

Alan Lazard going to stay with the jets on a rework contract. Terrace Marshall Jr. This is in here.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah, Kyle's here.

[Jason Moore]

So the Eagles signed Terrace Marshall Jr.

[Andy Holloway]

He probably won't go get that ring. Young man.

[Mike Wright]

Probably won't make. He won't make the team.

[Jason Moore]

O'Ali Cox.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, I just want to remind people that terrace Marshall Jr. Is still only 24 years old.

[Mike Wright]

He's 24 years old.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah. So his future is bright.

[Jason Moore]

Mike More total reception the rest of his career. Marshall Jr. Jonathan Minko.

[Andy Holloway]

Mingo.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Mo. Ali Cox. One year deal to come Back to the Colts just so we can hit this And Tyree Kill weekly domestic dispute took place once again brief in a high rise condominium in Florida.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the NFL, they're tracking down the 911 audio. This like.

[Andy Holloway]

Regardless, regardless of this terrible accusation. Yeah, we were just putting together our top 15 rankings. Well, behind the scenes we put together like our top 50 rankings. And Tyreek was the most interesting name to me prior to this news of like, what do you believe? What do you believe? You know, last year he played hundreds of more snaps than he did the year prior. Had half as many yards. What's the cause? And you know, you go, oh, well he was missing, you know, TUA for a handful of games, but to a played the majority of the season.

[Jason Moore]

Injury was surgery.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm pretty sure the Dolphins had more passing yards last year than they did before. So yeah, is it the wrist is. Whatever the reason, he sucked last year for Tyreek Hill standards. So he's a year older and he was lower in my rankings than I thought he would be.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we'll be doing wide receiver rankings there. Top 15 on Thursday, so you can tune in for that. But right now it's time for running backs.

[Andy Holloway]

Running backs.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we are going to go 1 through 15. We'll keep it fairly brief, just an overview before the draft of where we have the running back sitting right now.

[Mike Wright]

So yeah, it's like a vibes check.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I never know where you guys are on certain players at this time of year. So it's a chance to see where you have them ranked where I am thinking about certain players and, you know, some interesting results here. We also had some research done on what makes a top 15 running back in general for fantasy football purposes. If you look at the last four years, the averages for a top 15 running back, you're going to be at about 19 opportunities a game, which puts you at around 300 opportunities. Reminder, an opportunity is a that's going.

[Andy Holloway]

To be a target or a carry.

[Jason Moore]

There you go. Rushing attempts, you're Normally in the 240s, 10 rushing touchdowns. That's the average 80, 80 average.

[Andy Holloway]

85% of top 15 fantasy running backs have at least nine touchdowns, 59 targets.

[Jason Moore]

47 receptions, 350 plus receiving yards, couple of receiving touchdowns, and a fantasy points per game of around 15.

[Andy Holloway]

And one of the things I find the most interesting is that all the top 15 running backs, they were on NFL teams that averaged 9.7 wins, so they're on winning teams. Only 8% of the top 15 running backs over the last four years were on teams with fewer than seven wins. And so there are some. Right. It wasn't 0%, but if you're making an odds bet and your odds, you know, are sitting down at 8%, that is a losing bet. And so later in the draft, when you're looking at Ramon Dre Stevenson or Brian Robinson Jr. Maybe Ramondre is a better player. But like, I would. I would let those late picks tie break to me for the better. The better team, the better offense, who's going to win more games.

[Jason Moore]

Also, just for the record, as we march through these players, we're not putting any rookies in the initial rankings, whereas it's very, very possible. I mean, Genti will be in our top 15.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, for sure.

[Jason Moore]

And it's possible there's another name or two, depending on the landing spot. So no rookies in the initial rankings. We'll do that after the draft. But we'll start here at number one. He's number one for both of you. He's sitting at two on my list at Saquon Barkley.

[Andy Holloway]

I went back and forth flipping my one to year one over and over and over and over.

[Jason Moore]

Did you?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So, yeah, my number one is Bijan, who I'm talking about.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm switching right now.

[Mike Wright]

Right when we start, I'm going, I'll hold out.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Saquon Barkley, I was looking this up. He's rushed for 20 plus yards 24 times over the last two years, which ties Derek Henry. So you get that big play stuff that you saw in Philly last year, that you didn't have as many of those in New York because of offensive line play. But this was a Cinderella dream come true season for Saquon Barkley. Everything, you know, you talk about looking at both sides of a situation. Free agent signed by Philly, leaving New York older than some of the other running backs. Everything you could have possibly thought could go right for him went right last year. Played for the number one offensive line, was number one in yards before contact. So again, that wasn't breaking tackles. That was literally gaining yards before anybody got an opportunity to tackle. So making the right reads. 66% of his rushing yards came before contact.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, it was a perfect storm for him. The total touchdowns were awesome. The issue, the only negative, is that he was not very involved in the passing game. No, it was irrelevant, wasn't needed. He was the running back one in fantasy points, scored enough touchdowns, got enough yardage. But it does mean if things go poorly for him in the touchdown category, which that can be a category that bounces back and forth from year to year, then he doesn't seem to have that pass. He's certainly got the pass catching ability. But with Jalen Hertz and this Eagles offense, they don't seemingly use Saquon in that way. He only had 33 receptions. That would be like the only knock. And when I kept going back and forth between is it Saquon or is it Bijan as my number one? It's really the passing work that was like the tiebreaker to me.

[Jason Moore]

345 rushing attempts is a.

[Mike Wright]

That's a lot.

[Jason Moore]

A massive amount. And it's way more than he's ever had. He had never broken 300. He got to 345.

[Andy Holloway]

Really? He had never had more than 300 carries.

[Jason Moore]

Not that I see.

[Mike Wright]

Not in attempts. No. No.

[Jason Moore]

He got to 295 in 2022, but never over 300. He also had, you know, 13 rushing touchdowns. So, you know, when you talk about things that are prime for some variability, the long touchdown runs, the total touchdowns on the ground, but it's all in front of him right now.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I don't. It's very easy and very common. Whoever finishes RB1 last year, you frequently do put them at RB1 this year, but like this in particular, it's like I don't. Saquon Barkley, injury aside, is like, it's going to be a success. Let's say somehow the Eagles aren't nearly as good as they were when they were winning a Super bowl last year. Like, they're going to be very, very good. And the fall off for Barkley, to me is like, he's. He's safe where I don't worry about that team imploding. And he'll. Maybe he's at nine rushing touchdowns, but he's. I'm locking him.

[Andy Holloway]

We still haven't had the vote for the Tush push. That'll be in May. And so that if the Tush push gets banned and you're talking about a guy who, you know in Jalen Hurts, who has 10 Tush Bush touchdowns on the docket going away, even if five of those turn into handoffs for Barkley, that is a real needle mover.

[Jason Moore]

That would be an interesting discussion on the implications because it would help Barkley. It would probably help AJ Brown around the goal line as well.

[Mike Wright]

I wonder if they would just find a sneak play.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, he can just. Yeah, he could just.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I mean.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Like.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. Fine, we won't push.

[Jason Moore]

You could just sneak the way Brady used to sneak.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Brady didn't squat 600 pounds. It was like. I wonder what his conversion was on 4th and 1. Kyle, you should look that up because I feel like it's got to be.

[Jason Moore]

Brady was humble.

[Andy Holloway]

It's got to be like 90%.

[Jason Moore]

He just read the right. All right, number two is Bijan. He's number one on I guess now Jason in my list.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right.

[Jason Moore]

Mike has him at 3. I tried to look up an interesting little fact or stat on all of our top 15 running backs for Bijon. The one that I found is not only or things that surprised me. He had the second most total touches in the NFL last year and which was just behind Saquon, who we talked about. He was only stuffed on 14% of carries, which was the second best number in the entire league.

[Andy Holloway]

So freaking good, man.

[Jason Moore]

He's younger, obviously, but when you talk about, you know, Mike, you brought up the stability in Philly, the offensive pieces, they're locked up. You know what you're getting. The offensive line. There are more variables in Atlanta now, you know, it's hard to repeat as number one at the running back position. So this is a player in Bijon that has every ability to be that number one. But you're also going to get a whole season with, you know, Kirk Cousins is not going to be the starter, but Bijan should be the backbone. Right? And he was game script proof for Atlanta last year. It was really impressive. High success rate ever for a running back with 250 plus carries. He was, he was solid and I.

[Mike Wright]

Mean, he closed out the year. So Michael Penix played the last three games, 16, 17 and 18, where Bijon was running back 8, 5 and 2. Now two of those three teams, you had the New York Giants and you had the Carolina Panthers, so. And one of those teams was Washington. So RB5 against Washington, playoff team. The other two teams that you're like, we should beat the crap out of this team. But it's just, it's nice to see they like and they really, really turned to Bijan at the end in that three game.

[Andy Holloway]

In that three game sample with Michael Penix, very small, but we love to extrapolate those out. We do you want to hear what.

[Mike Wright]

A fun one we got A fun one.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, we got a nice 69 targets, so that passing volume was still there. First.

[Mike Wright]

I wish that was higher.

[Andy Holloway]

You wish it was higher, but it couldn't be because he was on pace for 380 carries, 2,006 rushing yards and 34 touchdowns on the ground.

[Mike Wright]

Bishon is strange to me because great player, incredible fantasy football player. But you got for this, this fantasy sandwich here, we got Saquon at the top and then we got Jameer Gibbs next. It's like Bijan's not nearly as exciting as those.

[Jason Moore]

No, he's not.

[Andy Holloway]

You just want the big breakaway touchdown runs and Bijan has not had those yet.

[Jason Moore]

Flash.

[Andy Holloway]

He still can. He flashes on every single play, but he just doesn't have that 70 yarder. I think that those are not predictable but still can happen for him and I think will happen.

[Mike Wright]

They're predictable with Jameer Gibbs.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, sure.

[Jason Moore]

I think we've seen enough Bijan to know that that's not going to be.

[Andy Holloway]

The major, it's not the major part of his game, but he's, you know, he's only had two seasons in the league so far he's looked great on pretty much every carry and he was about to peak. You know, the best running back year or age for max peak is 24 years old. So he's currently 23.8 years old, I believe. No, 23.8.

[Jason Moore]

He only ran for 10 or more yards on 11 of 121 carries. That was the fifth worst number in football.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he doesn't.

[Jason Moore]

So you know, he doesn't get those.

[Mike Wright]

He just keeps gouging you.

[Jason Moore]

What's, what's amazing is his teammate, Tyler Algier, fourth best on those kind of carries. Percentage wise of his carries. He doesn't get as many carries, but he made.

[Andy Holloway]

The defenders are relaxing.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. There ain't no way they're giving this one to Algiers. Oh, they did it again.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So, so you know, number one, Saquon, number two B, John so far. And we'll take a break, we'll jump into the rest of the rankings. What's going on? Foot Clan? Springtime is here and baseball season is officially underway. You know that there's a reason myself, Andy Holloway is the only one talking about baseball season. Look, I appreciate the game. I love the game. Been a fan my whole life. Do not miss your chance to add your favorite players from the diamond into your prize picks lineups. The prize picks app. Absolutely great. Easy to use, very fun. And baseball season is going so for me personally, maybe I'm going in there and I'm making some. I'm taking some shots on Corbin Burns of the Diamondbacks to deliver on a very promising and surprising signing this offseason. I'm making them Diamondback picks every night when they play. That's the great thing about baseball is there's games going on every single night. So you can go make your picks in less than 60 seconds and turn your sports takes into real money all season long. On prize picks you can sign up today. You get $50 instantly when you play $5. You don't even need to win to receive that $50 bonus. It's absolutely guaranteed. So download the app today and use the code footballers to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup. Again, download the app today and use the code footballers to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup. Prize picks run your game.

[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

Jameer Gibbs. Jameer Gibbs comes in at number three. Mike, you have him up at number two. I've got thoughts on Gibbs. One of the fun facts I looked up, number one, an EPA per play out of all running backs.

[Mike Wright]

That makes sense.

[Jason Moore]

So if you're not familiar with that stat, that is expected points added per play. It's a metric that quantifies how much a team's performance on a play changes. When you give somebody an opportunity that is almost double the number of sake one. He was by far number one in the NFL. We all know what the talent and ability of Jameer Gibbs is. But I, when I got in here and I looked at these names. There's not that many names in the top running backs that I feel amazingly 100% confident about. There aren't, but Gibbs is one.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct or not?

[Jason Moore]

I'm still.

[Andy Holloway]

No, you're not.

[Jason Moore]

Saquon and Bijan. Bijan. And I think to some degree, Derek Henry.

[Andy Holloway]

Christian McCaffrey.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, because I still. I mean, Christian McCaffrey, sure, he could. He could be. But you're nervous about it. That team has been dismantled. You're figuring out the quarterback. You have different offensive pieces. He's been hurt. I'm just saying from a. Like, I love Jameer Gibbs, but I do not expect one bit that this team tries to philosophically change with David Montgomery.

[Andy Holloway]

No, they don't. And if you look at the last four. So David Montgomery got injured in week 15. So 15 through 18. That last month of the season, Gibbs was nuclear in half. PPR. He's scoring 30 fantasy points a week. Prior to that, he was fantastic. You know, no one's complaining about having him. But he wasn't that he wasn't number three overall. Right. He wasn't the. I mean, 16.9 fantasy points per game. That's pretty nice. But it's not 29 point something else. Like when David Montgomery was there. It's. It's sad and frustrating how greedy we are watching those two players and being like, I want more. They're doing awesome things. But I do see your point, Andy, of like, he's not going to be what we saw at the end of the year when Monty is there. The Lions are not going away from David Montgomery.

[Jason Moore]

He's still, I mean, he's still talent wise. You know, I think if he had the amount of opportunities that we expect Bijan to get, I would have Gibbs ranked higher.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, me too.

[Jason Moore]

Like, Gibbs, I think is a better fantasy football running back than Bijan. If the opportunities were equal.

[Andy Holloway]

You're saying so per touch, he's the better.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, literally, he's number one in expected or EPA per play. So it's like, it's just not. I don't have the confidence that he's going to get the opportunities that guarantee him number three as opposed to six or seven. One of the funniest stats that I didn't even realize, you know, you could track was scoring the first touchdown in a game. Derek Henry scored the first touchdown in a game seven times this year. Right. No, number two was.

[Andy Holloway]

It's got to be David Montgomery.

[Mike Wright]

David Montgomery.

[Andy Holloway]

David Montgomery started every game six times this year.

[Jason Moore]

He was the first touchdown scored in.

[Mike Wright]

The entire game, even with David Montgomery and everything that's there because I don't disagree. I don't think this is.

[Jason Moore]

And by the way, we all have him ranked 2 or 3.

[Mike Wright]

So this is not a, it's not a full Gibbs takeover. But I'm also factoring in, you know, over the last three years for the Detroit Lions, Jared Goff's yardage, it's gone up, but it's like three years ago he's at 4,440 yards. Last year almost 4,600. This year just over 4,600. But those first two that I was quoting, he was throwing touchdowns at a 5% rate. He jumped up to almost 7% this past year. Like that's. I expect that to come back down to around five or the mid five. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

But I don't think that just switches over to running to rushing touchdowns. I think that the total amount of touchdowns at the line, which was the number one in the league, that number will come down. So I don't expect it to just go, well, he's going to throw fewer, so they're going to rush for more. They're losing Ben Johnson as the offensive coordinator. They lost their secondary offensive coach as well.

[Mike Wright]

So do you think they. Does the identity of the team change at all? Like is Jared Goff thrown for 4,500 yards again or are we getting.

[Andy Holloway]

I think they're going to try to go. I think they're going to try to run back how they have been playing the last few years. They did bring their new offensive coordinator was with the Detroit Lions three years ago. So I think they're wanting to keep it intact. But yeah, it's really just a matter of how many opportunities is Jameer Gibbs going to get when David Montgomery is healthy. If you look at last year, he got 16.9 opportunities. I talked about that's how many points. Both numbers, they're both numbers are accurate. 16.9 opportunities per game with David Montgomery, 23.3 without him.

[Jason Moore]

A couple things there you pointed out or we talked about 19 point or 19.9 opportunities per game is the average for a top 15 running back. So obviously he's hyper efficient. It was also interesting talking about Bijan. They won eight games last year just above that seven threshold that only 8% of running backs fit. Number four is Christian McCaffrey. You guys have him at four, I got him at five. I think that's a little bit higher than where people are putting him now, but I think later it will Change. If he is on the field at training camp and looks perfectly fine, what are the positives and negatives of CMC Jason?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, the positives are he's the most valuable fantasy asset over the last decade. When he is out on the field, he is two positions and one, he will fill as much in the receiving game as a good fantasy wide receiver and as much in the running game as a good fantasy running back. So it's just if he's healthy, he's the dude. He hasn't aged out. He's 28.8 years old. He's got some fresh legs at the moment, honestly.

[Mike Wright]

Well, they're not tired.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. When I hurt when I was, you know, going through my rankings, it was like, this is where I would take him. If those three guys are gone, I'm so excited for those three. I put Gibbs in the excitement for me. Then there's question marks for everyone. Christian McCaffrey is going to be the same conversation we had last year. Like, if he's on the field, he's great. He's worthy of being the number one running back. They still have a lot of money invested in him. This is a team that odds to go to the super bowl still really surprisingly high. I don't see it that way. But this is a team whose expectations is to be good.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the team that has higher odds to make the super bowl that I don't want to make the same mistake on is who I have ranked higher than him, and he's our next name on the list. Derek Henry. Derek Henry was the running back to last year. Insanely consistent. 347 opportunities, 325 carries. I feel like that is the layup that people didn't want to take last year. The way that we. That some people messed up the Saquon and the. And the Derrick Henry moving team situation and didn't trust the player, didn't trust the super bowl winning, you know, structure around them. I'm not making that mistake again here. I feel really good about Derek Henry, so I have him a spot higher and I just feel like it's not as sexy of a pick, but it's the right pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, right now, looking at sleeper adp, Derek Henry is fourth. Fourth running back. Take it. So he's. He's where you've got him in. Christian McCaffrey is actually the eighth. People are really scared. I don't blame anyone for being scared and I don't blame anyone for just saying I'm out. Like, I don't want to hold the bag again, especially if you had the experience last year. I have. As of this moment, my decision is I'm in. I want to play for the win. And if he, you know, he's done this before where he's been injured and lost a season and then he just comes back and is awesome.

[Jason Moore]

Derek Henry wins 22 fantasy points a game and losses 12.8. That has been the story of his career where he's 19.2 in every win and 9.8 in losses. Baltimore is currently tied with the second highest odds of making the super bowl, just behind Philly. Tied with the Chiefs and Buffalo. Henry is they're just going to reroll this. Yeah. One more year in Baltimore. Like I said, he scored the first touchdown more than anybody in football.

[Andy Holloway]

He does feel like the easy layup. Who you don't see him as the running back one this season.

[Mike Wright]

That's the issue.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't see him as this game script proof, you know.

[Mike Wright]

Correct.

[Andy Holloway]

Bijon versus Derek Henry. You're much more excited and comfortable to have Bijon but man, Derek Henry, I don't know how it goes wrong.

[Jason Moore]

Right. So that's why he's in the category to me with Bijan and with Sake one. Now Al chimed in real quick in our chat. So I'm going to go to him. You said quote, there is no way I would draft CMC with an early pick this year. Correct. Can you tell me why? Because I think this is important. It might be indicative of why his sleeper ADP is where it's at. But why wouldn't you take him just injury risk. I'm not playing that game again. I've been burned too many times and the loss, the loss of McCaffrey is the worst possible feeling you could have.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Lighting your one on one on fire.

[Andy Holloway]

Speaking of lighting, the lighting in Deucer's alley is obviously not good because if you if it was better you could see how yellow how yellow you are. Jeremy Brock Bowers. Yeah. You chicken? You could say I told you so.

[Jason Moore]

At the end of the season.

[Andy Holloway]

Howard. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

What's interesting about Derek, specifically Derek Henry and Chris McCaffrey is if you said Derek Henry is the RB one at the end of 25, I would be very surprised to go to number one. Like top five easy top three. Yeah, I get it. But number one where that just that would surprise me. If you say Christian McCaffrey is the number one running back in the year, I will have no surprise from that. But then on the inverse is if you Tell me that Christian McCaffrey screwed everybody again because an injury was not fully reported. I go, oh yeah, that makes sense. So it's, it's this weird all. It feels like an all or nothing.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I think what happens, let me ask you this because I know we got to get through 15 names, so. But I want to stay here with the McCaffrey question of I think they'll draft somebody that you like at running back right now in the college game. Yeah, I think they're going to do that.

[Andy Holloway]

I do too.

[Jason Moore]

And I think that, I think that it's in their interest at McCaffrey's age, coming off of multiple little issues. Right. We came into the draft last year and everyone literally said we're not worried about the camp injury. We'll just do it because we, we don't want to be caught without McCaffrey on our team as a number one overall back. And it burnt us.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

If they draft that other player, it's in their interest to not use McCaffrey to the same volume as they did in the past.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe. Yeah. And perhaps they will do that. But they've always had competent backups. It hasn't been. And they still chose to utilize Christian McCaffrey. How they have.

[Jason Moore]

That might have cost them a season of Christian McCaffrey.

[Andy Holloway]

It could have. But also if they draft a running back, we'll see where they draft them. You know, if it's day one or day two, great. If it's day three, that's going to be, you know, less worrisome. But I think it's more about their future if they draft a running back than it is about giving Christian McCaffrey less work.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, what, what a crazy five year stretch for McCaffrey because just, I mean it's three games played, then it's seven games played, then 17, 16 and now four games.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And honestly it should be a seven year stretch because he was, if you go back after his rookie season, he's the running back three, the running back one injured the next year, injured the next year, then he's back healthy. The running back two the running back one injured the next year and that was last year. So it's like if he plays, he's great.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The, where I'm on with the drafting of a backup is I don't think they'll spend a day two on it. It. The situation is strange of you had, you had Jordan Mason who at the, at least at the beginning of the year was like, this is a very competent player. For you, like, you know, in that run, I think he was leading. Talking about Jordan Mason was leading the league in rushing yards, you know, he was. He didn't turn into that. The pass catching didn't get there like you had hoped or the team had hoped. But they had him for. They could have had him very cheap. And then instead they took that, you know, a late pick. I don't remember what the pick was from Minnesota, but it was like, why, why not just keep Jordan Mason if you're in that. If they're going to draft someone, I mean, that would say they're concerned about Garendo, who they took in the third round, who was like, he at least flashed on the field. I don't know if they, they look at what he'd put on the field and say, that's good running back play because we like exciting plays. But sometimes that's not what a coach is looking for.

[Jason Moore]

At six is Devon Achan. Some variety in our rankings here. I'm at 6, Jason at 9. Mike, you're at 6 with me.

[Mike Wright]

Nervous here.

[Jason Moore]

The fun fact I looked up on Achan. No one in the NFL targeted more on early downs than Devon HN. 70 targets ahead of Camara, Bijan breeze. So 70 targets, early downs. Weird offense. Everything changed for Miami. Passing game. It's elite for Devon Hn.

[Andy Holloway]

But is Tua healthy?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

How many games?

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I think the way they're running this offense, 17. I mean, the way they're running this offense, Tua will stay upright.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean that. That's one of the reasons I've got him lower is just because you've got the variability of health issues here. Devon Achan himself has dealt with injuries. You know, his rookie season he was injured a lot. But there's the Tua factor. Like if Tua goes down. You had six games without Tua and you had a player who with Tua had 19 and a half fantasy points per game without Tua was 7.7. You stack the box. You don't worry. That doesn't work for Tavana H And the targets went from six and a half targets per game to 2.2 without Tua.

[Jason Moore]

You don't have confidence in Zach Wilson back there.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't.

[Jason Moore]

That would be one of the things that they were so inept at quarterback after HN or sorry, after Tua got hurt. HN is going to be one of those. Let's see what that happens at the draft.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

I had people coming out after we talked about Jalen Wright being a Swing and a miss. Very upset that we didn't give him more time to develop.

[Andy Holloway]

They won't remember who that is at the end of this year.

[Jason Moore]

So at number seven, we have Kyren Williams. I've got him at 10. I didn't know this was.

[Andy Holloway]

Didn't know you hated him.

[Jason Moore]

Controversial. I didn't hate him because Sleeper has him at RB12.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I know, I know. It's funny. The world hates him.

[Jason Moore]

Let me tell you what the reason why.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, God. Is he returning punts again?

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no. But I deserve that. Here's the reason why. J.K. dobbins averaged more receiving yards per game than Kyron. I read that and I had to go make sure I wasn't reading a lie. He averaged 11 receiving yards a game. That's the third worst of 34 qualified running backs. But he's a red zone monster. He was the number one in touches inside the red zone, 4.7. All running backs considered, he got more touches per game inside the red zone than anybody else. But I'm just pointing out when players don't catch the football, which Kyron doesn't, that's a. That's almost nothing. Right? 11.4 per game. You're at the bottom of the list. You're below J.K. dobbins, who we know doesn't catch the football.

[Mike Wright]

Well, reminder, the average of a top 50, 15. They're averaging 47 catches.

[Jason Moore]

Right, right. So, I mean, it's just. He's not. He's a red zone monster. But his efficiency in the receiving game stuff hasn't been there.

[Andy Holloway]

It wasn't there this past season. I would agree. The year prior, he only played 12 games. So the numbers, while they're seemingly about the same, both years on a per game basis, they were much better. He was on Pace for 45 receptions, 300 receiving yards. That's fine to add in. So we know he's got the ability to do it. Obviously, that it's kind of like Saquon.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Saquon didn't catch the ball much last year, wasn't involved in the. In the passing game, and it worked for him. Saquon clearly is a great pass catching running back. It's kind of how I feel about Kyron Williams. I don't worry that he can't be utilized when needed in that capacity. He's not game scripted out. I don't feel like they're bringing someone else in to be like, hey, if we've got to. If we got to throw this ball a lot, Kyron you're off the field.

[Jason Moore]

Well, we should be honest about how they've decided to run the offense because you have an entire year of it. There are multiple games. He played an entire game and got no targets.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. So, I mean, how did he do it for fantasy football in those games?

[Jason Moore]

Well, he had a good year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not discounting his year at all. We're talking receiving work. I'm just not leaning on two years ago to tell me it's prescriptive for him getting more work when you got 17 games this year where you didn't get that kind of work.

[Mike Wright]

He. He is this. Like, this is for one of these players. Like, that's how it can go wrong. Like for Kyren, you know, he is more susceptible to. You just shave off three touchdowns here and you're.

[Jason Moore]

You're outside the top ten.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Now you're.

[Mike Wright]

You know, you're not. It's not terrible. I mean, especially where he's going in his ADP. But it would be terrible for our current projection.

[Jason Moore]

44Th in explosive run rate, so just 1.9% of carries, 45th in fumbles, 34th in yards per carry. So, yeah, if the. If you don't have back backstop is all. I mean, with Kyle, yes, he's been amazing.

[Mike Wright]

We need a contract, but there's no.

[Jason Moore]

There's no compensation for a lack of touchdowns if it were to happen.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's what I was. I was looking this morning just for any update on the contract information. He's wanting around 14, 15 mil a year. He's not going to get that. So the nice thing is it's Drew Rosenhaus, so he will get paid.

[Jason Moore]

Might be shorter term. Deal, though.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, I don't care. Just pay the man and give him a bunch of opportunities.

[Jason Moore]

And I still like Blake Corum, so you don't know how that involvement will change. But he's. I mean, he's ranked 7 for a reason. He finished at 6 last year. He deserves it.

[Andy Holloway]

ADP 12 in the fourth round. So currently I'm in.

[Jason Moore]

We'll take a break. We got more names. What's up, Foot Clan? Look, we have a lot of experience trying to hire the right people from our video game company before this podcast over the last 10 years as well. Hiring for this business. Look, sometimes you realize your business needs to hire somebody yesterday, but you want to find the right person, the right candidate. You cannot make the mistake of hiring the wrong person. And we have always used Indeed. It is easy. And with indeed sponsored jobs, your post jumps to the top of the page for your relevant candidates so you can stand out and reach the people you want faster. Indeed has helped us fill several positions. And look, you want to understand who you're hiring, the right qualifications and make sure you don't make those mistakes because it can really set your business back. There's no need to wait any longer. Speed up your hiring right now with Indeed and listeners of this show. Get a $75 sponsor job credit to get your jobs more [e-mail] footballers just go to indeed.com footballers right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com Footballers terms and conditions apply. Hiring Indeed is all you need hey Fidelity, what's it cost to invest with the Fidelity app? Start with as little as $1 with no account fees or trade commissions on U.S. stocks and ETFs. Hmm.

[Andy Holloway]

That's music to my ears.

[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

LLC member NYSE SIPC at number 8 in our early running back rankings, we've got Bucky Irving.

[Mike Wright]

I hate this.

[Jason Moore]

You do. We are.

[Mike Wright]

We're. I feel like we're giving him proper respect. Like I honestly do.

[Andy Holloway]

And you hate that.

[Mike Wright]

And I hate that. Adp, this is sleeper. ADP is two spots ahead of where we have him. He was and that feels like feels.

[Andy Holloway]

Like we don't like him.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it feels like that. And then it's going to like he's we're going to create this margin of error for Bucky Irving that's impossible to hit.

[Jason Moore]

He's 22 years old. Stability on the offense is there. His explosiveness is outrageous. He averaged 2.7 yards after contact per carry. So that you remember saquon was number one in yards before contact. Bucky was number one out of 44 running backs in yards after contact per carry. You've got margin and room for the offensive line to make improvements big plays. From week 10 on, he was the RB7. That might speak to your point, Mike. About he doesn't have a lot of room for error here.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Like, but can Bucky Irving Could Bucky Irving finish as the RB 2 or 3? I think he could. I do think that's in the range of outcomes for Bucky Irving. I think he could be that good.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he is talented enough. I don't think that's in his range of realistic outcomes. Because you got Rashad Dick White there. He's not going away kind of hard.

[Mike Wright]

That's on you.

[Andy Holloway]

You made his name.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think I ever said it quite like that.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no.

[Jason Moore]

I never said it as a sentence, like with Dick in the middle.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And you've also got Sean Tucker, who they like and they utilize. So Bucky is the. Is the primary back here. They love Buck Irving. I think he's going to get out.

[Jason Moore]

And said like that's.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, he's going to get the majority of the work, but he's not going to get all of the work. He's not built for that. And they have two other quality backs on the roster right now, so. I love Bucky, but he doesn't. You know, I just don't know if the workload is guaranteed there the way it is for some of the players around him.

[Mike Wright]

I. I think it's pretty.

[Jason Moore]

I think he's got 275 on the ground.

[Andy Holloway]

You think he's got 275 carries on the ground.

[Jason Moore]

I would bet you that he will have 275 carries. Sands injury.

[Andy Holloway]

I think I would take that bet.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Well, we can do it.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's do it.

[Mike Wright]

Waterbed, just for some additional context here, soon after the bye week, so they were talking weeks 12 through 18, that seven games played, he would have been on a pace of 270 attempts. But that also includes. That's a full week 14 where he carried the ball four times.

[Andy Holloway]

But that's because. Was it the week before that? Was that the mummy game?

[Mike Wright]

It might have been.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't remember week 13. How many carries did he. Yeah, he was. He was used and abused in that game. I remember he was so good.

[Jason Moore]

But then, and mind you, in those games 12, 11, 17 and 15, those are carry counts for Rashad White in some of those games.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, let's stop doing that.

[Jason Moore]

I think it's going to work out really well for Bucky Irving. I do too.

[Mike Wright]

But I don't like that adp.

[Jason Moore]

I know we want to pull back, but the reason it's there is because there aren't to me, a lot of names that I know are going to bring me a guarantee. And I think Bucky's in that category.

[Andy Holloway]

His talent is unquestionable from what he put on film last year. He was.

[Jason Moore]

You can't even question it.

[Andy Holloway]

No. Go try.

[Jason Moore]

See, I just tried and I wouldn't. It Wouldn't let me. Jonathan Taylor at number nine, Jason's the highest with him at seven, I'm at nine, Mike at 10, he's at nine. And ADP, we know how talented he is. He's only 26 years old. Still, he had a great monster sized end of the year. I mean we're talking 29 carries, 32 carries, 34 carries. They basically said we got nothing else we can do.

[Andy Holloway]

And he was exactly what they did. So good. He was so good. You realize his last five games he would have been on a season long pace of 2,458 rushing yards.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, that's. That's a. You've got questions at quarterback, right? You don't know if it's Jones or Richardson. Neither sound great. Daniel Jones was not a boon for Saquon in New York. You've got some weird outlier stat numbers here. Among 46 qualified running backs with 100 plus carries, 42nd out of 46, enforced missed tackle rate, 44th in yards after contact per attempt. And then he was actually stuffed the most of any running back in football on third and short, including more than Ramon Dre. And he fumbled four times, which is a bit of an issue. So he's also become less relevant as a pass catcher as the years have gone by. The last two years it's gone down. So those would be the warts.

[Andy Holloway]

Anthony Richardson gets scary from a passing.

[Mike Wright]

Volume, from a target volume and from a winning games perspective.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Both from an accurate target perspective.

[Andy Holloway]

I think the thing you love about Jonathan Taylor is that he in and of himself is obviously super talent. He's been the running back one for fantasy in the past and he projects to get the vast majority of the work in the backfield. So that's why like I've got him ahead of Bucky. I would rather have the big bodied back who's going to get all of his team's carries than a maybe just as talented back in Bucky Irving, who's 195 pounds and has two other capable backs on the roster.

[Jason Moore]

That's. You said backs a lot. That was three. You got a triple back.

[Mike Wright]

Josh Jacobs, he caught 58% of his targets.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You catch an Anthony Richardson, I dare.

[Jason Moore]

You, I dare you to.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not putting this on Jonathan Taylor, who as a rookie caught 36 of 39 targets. I'm saying, geez Louise, man, it's like the easiest throw on the football field.

[Jason Moore]

He's right there.

[Andy Holloway]

We got to get Anthony Richardson.

[Mike Wright]

He's right in front of you learn.

[Andy Holloway]

How to do the underhand throw, you.

[Mike Wright]

Know what I mean?

[Jason Moore]

Like, just like. Oh, like the Rick Barry of the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. Just a granny throw. Just, just, just toss it to him. Toss it forward.

[Jason Moore]

No quarterback has ever switched to a Rick Barry style throw yet. Yet.

[Mike Wright]

But hey, if you want to save your career, it's underhand that granny style. Float it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah. All right. Josh Jacobs. Jason and I have him at 8. Mike wanted to take a dump on him, put him at, put him at 13.

[Mike Wright]

Right. Hate.

[Jason Moore]

He broke the second most tackles in the NFL, which was two short of Derek Henry. And those two guys were in a completely other tier, almost 15 more than James Conner, who's in third place. So he arrived in Green Bay and delivered everything a running back should deliver. So everything that they signed him for, everything that you hoped you were getting if you're a Green Bay, 14 rushing touchdowns inside the 10 workhorse. He was, he was the real consistency on the offense. The wide receivers, they couldn't figure themselves out for fantasy. You couldn't trust Jordan Love. Last year. You didn't even. I mean, you got a little whiff of tight end performance for fantasy and Green Bay, but it was Jacobs.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Now, are you concerned about the every other year history of Josh Jacobs? He's a real red light, green light situation.

[Jason Moore]

If his green, if his red lights are RB 14 or 18, it's not the end of the world for a guy at RB7. I mean, it's not good.

[Mike Wright]

That's not great.

[Jason Moore]

It's not good.

[Andy Holloway]

But I mean, you know how many running backs the packers have brought in for top 30 visits? Mike, do you know, you've been on this?

[Jason Moore]

I would love to know off the.

[Mike Wright]

Top of my head. I don't.

[Jason Moore]

Zero.

[Andy Holloway]

It is zero.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You've got other problems on that team. Go fix those also. Those, those green light, red light performances. He had a couple years there that were 13 games out of 17 games played or 15 out of 17. So his fantasy finish maybe a little bit deceptive there. Always a shortened season is what I'm saying, for his bad performance. We know what you're getting with Josh Jacobs. You want two of the least sexy picks. Just take Henry and Jacobs and win your league.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, no, I think that those will be good. Henry is being drafted that way, though.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Jacobs is at RB7.

[Jason Moore]

You won't get both.

[Mike Wright]

All right, Chase, my reasoning for being lower, like, once the stats are in, I'm guessing Josh Jacobs won't be as low as 13 for me, but it's A regression of touchdowns. Of touchdowns. And not just because, like, oh, he scored so many of them. It was. The Green Bay packers went from 24 of the of their touchdowns in 2023 to 45% of their touchdowns came on the ground. Like, this was a huge swing. This has, like, we've seen how this coaching staff has handled it before, and it's there. They tend to be on the higher side of passing touchdowns. So I'm just. I'm going to. I'd be on the side betting that that will regress. That doesn't mean Jacobs is a bad pick, but I think that it'll be. It'll swing back to more passing touchdowns than what we had last year.

[Jason Moore]

11 is Chase Brown. We talked about him at the beginning. It will change dramatically if the Bengals take a running back. It's not a guarantee that they will. He was the RB5 from week nine on. You have an offense you have a tremendous amount of confidence in.

[Mike Wright]

They're going to score so many points, so many points.

[Jason Moore]

And Chase Brown is very good. He's very versatile. He can catch the football. He can be a target for Joe Burrow. We're just on rookie watch right now. I think. I think he played enough games for us all to say, hey, that's a good player.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. If they don't draft the rookie, he will be very, very high.

[Mike Wright]

Will he move up in your rankings.

[Andy Holloway]

You think he might? Right now I've got him at 11. I mean, that's an RB one. Perhaps when we stat him out post the NFL draft, he'll be higher. But as of now, that's probably where I really only see him. His ability to fall, like, if they draft a rookie, he could tumble.

[Jason Moore]

I feel like some of the outlook on Chase Brown might be similar to how we were with Kyren Williams after he kind of broke out.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Where it was like, okay, do we have that confidence going into year two?

[Mike Wright]

It's very similar because it's Chase Brown's a day three guy, just like Kyron Williams was.

[Jason Moore]

Where you're like, that's how he feels.

[Mike Wright]

Is he going to hold on to that starter spot?

[Andy Holloway]

I think the difference is Kyron Williams college tape. Like, I remember, we loved Kyron Williams.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, we did.

[Andy Holloway]

We thought he was unbelievable in college and then he just tumbled in the draft and then had a back seat. I don't remember ever feeling like Chase Brown was some amazing prospect that just.

[Jason Moore]

No, but I mean, on the field last year he was amazing.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah, he was.

[Jason Moore]

I think what happened with Kyron is, is the draft capital made us doubt him going into year two that they the team would be committed. Now Kyle gave us this number. If a team used his two plus top 30 visits on running backs, which the Bengals have done 71% of the time over the last decade, they take a running back in the first four rounds. So if you want to get out in dynasty on Chase Brown on that number, this is your moment.

[Andy Holloway]

I would definitely be. If I had Chase Brown, I would be shopping around to see if I could get a big trade for him. Because if you can, if you can maximize on his current perceived workhorse value, you might not be able to in every league, but if you can, great. Because even if he's great, whatever your trade compensation should be great. But he has the ability to really go poof.

[Jason Moore]

50, 50 shot in the first three rounds that that team takes a running back. James Cook comes in at 12 on our rankings. We've all got him similarly ranked. He's RB13 on sleeper. One thing that I found interesting about James Cook, he was the single worst fourth quarter runner in EPA per play in the entire NFL.

[Mike Wright]

Chuckered out.

[Jason Moore]

So you better get them early because he was the number one first down running back in EPA per play. So when they're in that part of the game that they love running the football, he wasn't great in the fourth quarter. They had a lot of games put away. They used other players. But you know, 16 rushing touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Didn't get extended his off season.

[Mike Wright]

He is nerve wracking.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean it was like the work went down. You know, targets went down, rushing attempts, rushing yards. I mean his yards per attempt was actually slightly up, but his attempts is down. But you go from two touchdowns on the ground to 16. This. He like, I loved James Cook going into last year.

[Andy Holloway]

He was a my guy.

[Mike Wright]

He was a my guy and he fully feels like a touchdown variance just bounced in the correct direction to totally bail that out. Because 200 carries for 1,000 with 32 receptions for 250 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. You, you're like, man, James Cook really let me down because he had all of. He had 16 rushing touchdowns. These are the RB8.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the exact inverse of who he was his entire career.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

The only thing that you could be confident in is he's not going to get rushing touchdowns. And then 16 rushing touchdowns ties O.J. simpson's record. It's, it's a wildly efficient season, a very good season. If you had him, you were happy. I agree Completely. He's. He's scary. He's not a bell cow workload situation. He's talented player.

[Jason Moore]

I think they're content using multiple backs. They 100% are at 13 is Joe Mixon. Mike has him down at 19. I'm at 11. On the other end of the spectrum, Joe, this was the number one running back in all of fantasy for the first 11 weeks of the season.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he looked real good.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, he also was right behind Kyron in touches per game in the red zone. So he averaged 4.2 chances to score inside the red zone per game, which is awesome. The Houston offense, it disintegrated over this down the stretch. It's a little bit tough because we've looked at CJ Stroud and we've kind of like said what happened, but I feel like it's been kind of in front of our face. When you have injuries to Diggs, Collins and Dell, those hurt your offense and so your opportunities per game in the red zone for Joe Mixon, which is where he was making his hay, those went away. He is older, so I think the.

[Mike Wright]

Quick he'll be twin. He'll be playing at the age of 29.

[Jason Moore]

I just think that the default reaction is going to be okay. He started hot, got old and then died off. And I think it's more nuanced than that with how the offense lost other pieces. He was hurt multiple times dealing with a high ankle sprain. To me, this is like Josh Jacobs light in the sense that the team, the packers and the Texans both have their running back situation figured out. They did it last offseason. They paid them. Nothing's changing.

[Andy Holloway]

Joe Mixon's still under contract for two more years. He is their primary guy and will receive a massive workload for what could be a very good offense. I am much, much more in the camp that Joe Mixon is going to be very good for fantasy. He's a found pick right now. That is delightful.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I like that.

[Andy Holloway]

My big worry is simply that this was a bad offensive line that seemed like what they did is they got all their bad offensive linemen together and then they said, you're all fired. Which I get that because you guys sucked, but they didn't have anyone else to.

[Mike Wright]

And then they said, hey, the good one. We're going to trade you to Washington.

[Andy Holloway]

You're gone. So I'm like really scared about this offensive line situation.

[Jason Moore]

It's. Yeah, it seems like it can't get much worse. So you'd hope they spin on draft Day we'll be watching that. Kenneth Walker comes in at 14. Mike's got him at 12. I'm at 16. This is the weirdest dude.

[Mike Wright]

He's very strange. It is.

[Jason Moore]

I'm looking up Kenneth Walker numbers, and I'm not looking for bad. I'm just looking for truth.

[Mike Wright]

They're there, though.

[Jason Moore]

And his 4.4 yards from scrimmage per touch was sixth worst in the NFL. His 3.9 a carry versus just base defenses. Worst runner in the league against base defenses, 3.2 yards per carry in the first half last year. So if the team's throwing in the second half, in the first half, he did nothing. And he did involve himself in the passing game. He's capable.

[Mike Wright]

He got 46 passes in how many.

[Jason Moore]

Games did you guys. The numbers and the eyeballs don't match up for Kenneth Walker to me, because I feel like he's the same twitchy, elite talent in the backfield. But he did get really inefficient last year, and now you got a new offensive coordinator who you think is going to emphasize the run. Now you hope he's out there. He's injury prone. This range of outcome outcomes for Kenneth Walker freaks me out. Mike. Talk me into it.

[Mike Wright]

It's hard to talk you into him because I am aware, like I said, we're doing vibes checks. These are not our UDK stat projections for these guys, where we just. The numbers do the talking for us, even if it can be upsetting. And I am well aware that my love of Kenneth Walker and my disdain for Joe Mixon, it is about as terrible as you can. You can go. It's just not. It's disingenuous of every argument I make against Joe Mixon. You could just judo throw that thing right back at me and be like, well, that's Ken Walker. And I'll be like, yeah. But it's not. Yeah, because I like Ken Walker. So it's. It's hard of. It's what you're saying, Andy, of watching Kenneth Walker play. You're like, this is an exciting guy. And it's hard. It's hard to see him. It's hard to. It's hard to see it bounce the right way. But he's the type of player, to me, that if it bounced right. Kenneth Walker's a top five fantasy running back at the end of the year.

[Jason Moore]

Do you agree that this is kind of a defining year for him, for. For our expectations for his career? Because it feels like we could say, okay, he's not what we thought he was. If this year doesn't go well.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think that's. That's a very fair. And it's contract year. So this is, this is everything for.

[Andy Holloway]

For.

[Mike Wright]

For him. Like, he needs to play his way into more money. And what's wild about Ken Walker, because it's, you know, like, over the course of his career, if you've had him, I think it's been more good than not where Year one, it took some time for him to take over, but then he did and he was like, he really, really helped your team win. And the next year it felt disappointing. And except points per game, rookie year and sophomore year, about the same. And then he had more points per game this past year. You're like, dude, you're killing me.

[Jason Moore]

Well, in a different way, too, like being more effective in the passing game. Like, it's going to be a very interesting year for Ken Walker. I'm happy this guy is our number 15 and made it into the list here. Chuba Hubbard sneaks in at 15. He's got some really weird receiving numbers that I thought I'd throw out there. His 3.2 yards per target is the worst in the league over the last two years, and his 4.9 yards per reception was worst in the league over the last two years. So to me, I've now pictured a man that catches the football and falls to the ground. The truth of Chuba is that he is a just a fantastic interior, you know, bonafide between the tackles, running back, and he gets touches in the red zone. He's a workload guy. I don't think we believed any of these things about him when he was the Backup for Christian McCaffrey. I don't think we believed he could evolve into this kind of a player that got a big contract that could deliver big numbers. From weeks three to 16, he was the RB7. So he is. He is not going to be drafted highly, period. For fantasy. He will not be drafted where he could finish.

[Andy Holloway]

I agree with that. I'm glad we're giving him the respect that he has earned. I do worry a little bit about the workload. He was such a massive workload guy that if that took a hit, that could be really problematic. This is a team who has brought in three running backs on top 30 visits. So they are, you know, you said 50, 50 chance of a top three pick. For a team that brought in two, they've brought in three. And I don't know that they know about the future of Jonathan Brooks.

[Jason Moore]

That Would be the. That's what's so painful about that decision is you've got. You paid Chuba, Jonathan Brooks, you just spent a high pick on.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but I think that.

[Jason Moore]

And then they let go Miles Sanders.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that for them.

[Mike Wright]

Rico Dowdle.

[Jason Moore]

I'll say it brought in Rico Dowdle. No, they did.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Thousand yard rusher.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

If they were to draft, you know, an RJ Harvey or something in the fourth round, I could see him coming in and getting a. They will not work where Chuba is not the primary lead back. But you know, they need to not give him 350 opportunities.

[Jason Moore]

There's no way they won't take a player that makes you worried about Chuba. Because everything about Chuba's career is always. It shouldn't work. That's the. That's the last two years. Nothing about Chuba Hubbard's situation. Bad team. Right. We just looked at numbers. You're supposed to play for a good team to produce for fantasy. They draft Jonathan Brooks. Ah, there goes Chuba. Not valuable. Then he gets a bunch of money at the end of the year. So they'll probably draft somebody you love.

[Andy Holloway]

This is the time that I want to respect Chuba, not draft season. You know what I mean? When draft season rolls around, y'all can have them.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. All right, so there's our top 15. We also. I wanted to give you a quick opportunity to name a player that we didn't mention that you still think could finish in that top 15.

[Andy Holloway]

David Montgomery will be a top 15 running back on a points per game basis.

[Jason Moore]

Nice. Nice finish to the sentence.

[Andy Holloway]

You said quick.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but do you believe he could finish as a top 15?

[Andy Holloway]

I think he will finish as a top 15 running back. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. And then I'm going to go with Breece hall to shine a small light of joy in Breeze Hall's time on the show. That's not a phrase. Second most running back receptions in football since 2023.

[Andy Holloway]

Currently being drafted at running back 10.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I see it. I see it being okay. I see it being okay.

[Andy Holloway]

That's certainly good.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, he's RB10 and he's not.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, you won't draft him.

[Mike Wright]

He's not 15.

[Andy Holloway]

No, he's not in our top 15. I think that's just because he finished as the running back 17 this last year.

[Jason Moore]

For what it's worth, he's at 18 in our list behind Camara and Connor right now.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. James Conner is the guy I would highlight.

[Jason Moore]

Jason ranked him 57th, so that's why he didn't average out.

[Mike Wright]

James Conner is that's your name? Yeah. Of the group of like the old guys where they're kind of dead zone running backs. James Conner is someone who I will, I can't see a way right now where I abandon James Conner and be like, this guy. He should just be an incredible value pick yet again.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, he is very, very important to the team.

[Mike Wright]

He is the running back room. Trey Benson did not step up. I can't. I don't think that they'll spend draft capital on another running back.

[Jason Moore]

Like, I think, I think they like Trey based on what I hear Kyler talk about.

[Mike Wright]

Right. And they'll just, they'll, they'll try to work him in. But the Cardinals will be a team that they'll be in that win threshold. They'll be right around seven to nine. Like, you know, I'll give them eight, whatever, eight wins or so they'll find a way to get that. And then James Conner will just beat this workhorse yet again.

[Jason Moore]

All right, on Thursday, we're going to go through our early top 15 wide receiver rankings. And so you can look forward to that. If you have a minute and you want to help the show out. We always appreciate a follow on your podcast app or a subscribe button over on YouTube. You can watch the show over there and you can find us on socials on x at the FF Ballers, on [e-mail] fantasy footballers and of course the UDK is available for pre order ultimate draft kit dot com. That is it for today. We're catch you on Thursday.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.

[Jason Moore]

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