Fantasy Football - Early Top 15 RB Rankings + Pre-Draft Vibes - Podcast for 4/14

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Episode: "Early Top 15 RB Rankings + Pre-Draft Vibes"

Date: April 14, 2026
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike “The Fantasy Hitman” Wright

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Episode Overview

In this engaging and analytical episode, the Fantasy Footballers break down their early consensus top 15 running back (RB) rankings for the 2026 season, with a fresh, pre-draft spin (“vibes over spreadsheets”). Before the NFL Draft reshuffles the landscape, Andy, Jason, and Mike provide their bold opinions, projections, and fantasy advice, dissecting each top RB’s potential, risks, and the crucial context surrounding their situations. The episode is full of strong takes, stats that matter, and plenty of classic Fantasy Footballers’ playful banter.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Setting the Stage: The Pre-Draft Vibes (02:22–04:24)

• Early rankings = early heart: These rankings are based on gut, inclination, and "vibes" rather than finalized statistics; full “Ultimate Draft Kit” analytics drop in June.
  • “This is more vibes, you know what I mean?” – Jason Moore (02:35)
• Acknowledge ADP and league “groupthink” will change post-draft and after training camp storylines erupt.
• NFL offseason news and pre-draft speculation can change opinions quickly; coaching and landing spots matter immensely for RB values.

NFL News & Notes: Relevant Offseason Moves (07:33–16:06)

• Philly’s WR situation: Jokey confusion about the Eagles’ reshuffling their receiving corps. Speculation about A.J. Brown’s future and WR relevance.

  • “A.J. Brown will be a Patriot. That’s what I believe.” – Mike Wright (08:54)

• Impacts for Dallas Goddard and new WRs: Wicks and Hollywood Brown likely “last-round flyer” options, not regular fantasy contributors.

• Green Bay’s WR shakeup benefits Christian Watson, making him “an early ‘my guy’ candidate.” (11:03)

• Travis Hunter’s positional future: Expected to be a full-time corner; ongoing dynasty debates on his true value depending on IDP vs. standard leagues.

  • “Now you’re worried… he might literally have no value for the rest of his career for fantasy.” – Jason Moore (12:30)

• Other News:

  • Bijan Robinson's 5th-year option picked up.
  • Travis Hn Jr. (formerly Etienne) drama over name pronunciation.

What Makes a Top 15 RB? (15:27–18:45)

• Workload is king:
  • Average top 15 RB line: 312 opportunities, 250 carries, 60 targets.
  • 77% of top 15 RBs see 18+ touches/game and score 10+ total TDs.
  • Almost all top-15 RBs are on winning teams (average 8.9 wins per season).
  • “You need workload.” – Mike (16:18)
• Team win projection and offensive environment heavily influence RB upside.

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Early Top 15 Running Back Rankings & Deep Dives

1. Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons)

• Consensus rank: 1 | [18:57]
• Hosts’ takes: Andy & Jason prefer Bijan’s potential as a workload monster; Mike narrowly favors Gibbs.
• Concerns: Falcons' 7.5 wins projection, unfamiliar winning culture.
• Upside: Elite talent, top in forced missed tackles and yards after contact.
• Quote: “I just think Bijan is the better running back. If I was building an NFL team, I would draft him over Gibbs." – Jason (19:00–20:15)

2. Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)

• Consensus rank: 2 | [18:57]
• Hosts’ takes: Mike’s RB1 (“I just like Detroit’s offense more.”)
• Upside: Superb receiving role in a high-volume, high-win offense; no real competition.
• Quote: “It's hard to repeat at number one. You do see changes and I like them winning more games... Flip a coin.” – Mike (21:12)

3. Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)

• Consensus rank: 3 | [23:21]
• Hosts’ takes: All rank him 3, citing age (30) and the toll of massive touch volume (413 last year).
• Notes: Dominant fantasy production if healthy, but “can’t expect 17 games from anyone”.
• **Red-zone usage remains elite; possible minor decline in explosiveness.
• Stats: Led all RBs in red zone receptions.
• Quote: “He is not the same player... but he's going to catch the ball so much.”—Andy (24:59)
• Fantasy advice: “I feel my confidence level in Bijan and Gibbs is just much higher than it is in McCaffrey because those guys are... still younger and can still rip off the 50-yard touchdowns...” – Mike (27:49)

4. Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts)

• Consensus rank: 4 | [28:14]
• Hosts’ takes: Jason and Mike are higher than Andy (who is at 6).
• Key questions: Will Daniel Jones (QB) be healthy—and if so, is the offense good?
• Upside: “He is single-handedly going to win people championships.”—Jason (29:13)

5. James Cook (Buffalo Bills)

• Consensus rank: 5 | [31:24]
• Hosts’ takes: Mike is highest (4), Andy and Jason at 5.
• Intrigue: Not heavily used in the passing game for a “modern” top RB. Lighter on targets (40 last year).
• Reliability: 11 top-10 weeks, played all games; “most reliable” in many ways.
• Quote: “He feels more fragile to me. But then you watch him play football, you're like—that's dumb.”—Andy (32:04)

6. Devon Achan (Miami Dolphins)

• Consensus rank: 6 | [34:41]
• Hosts’ takes: Mike is highest (5), Jason & Andy at 6.
• Notes: Team expected to regress, but Achan is the “only show in town,” elite pass-catching upside.
• Consistency King: 11+ fantasy points in every game played.
• Quote: “He is all of it. He’s going to catch a million passes...I don't know how it doesn't work..." —Jason (35:08)

7. Omarion Hampton (Los Angeles Chargers)

• Consensus rank: 7 | [37:27]
• Hosts’ takes: Jason bullish (7), Mike lower (10).
• Projection: Unproven but high-upside; “borderline first-round running back for fantasy." —Jason (39:04)
• Cautions: “I want it to happen. Let me be clear. I really want it to happen. I don't know why I'm as nervous, but I think it's just—like you said—we didn't get to see a lot last year.” – Mike (39:04)

8. Kenneth Walker III (Kansas City Chiefs)

• Consensus rank: 8 | [40:26]
• Hosts’ takes: Mike is highest (7), others at 9.
• Narrative: Chiefs paid up for him, should be a workhorse... if targets and draft don’t undercut his value.
• Consistency Issues: Has always faced "something"—injuries, committee, etc.
• Quote: “I just don't think that there's any world where he doesn't dominate total touches." —Jason (41:37)

9. Ashton Jeanty (Minnesota Vikings)

• Consensus rank: 9 | [44:16]
• Hosts’ takes: Andy highest (7); Mike lowest (12).
• Notes: Team was worst in NFL last year (offensive line was “putrid”), but Jeanty commanded elite share of workload (39%).
• Risk: RBs with rookie QBs average just 7.5 TDs; committee could loom once rookie QB Mendoza plays.
• Quote: “He was the entirety of the running back position.” – Andy (45:13)

10. Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals)

• Consensus rank: 10 | [48:09]
• Hosts’ takes: All around 10.
• Cautions: Very susceptible to being replaced by a rookie in the draft. If alone, potential is strong; “truly dominant” when given work last season.
• Quote: “If he's alone, he's fine... most liable. I am terrified for his value if Love were to fall to 10.” – Jason (49:09)

11. Josh Jacobs (Green Bay Packers)

• Consensus rank: 11 | [51:54]
• Hosts’ takes: Mike highest (8), Jason and Andy at 12.
• Notes: Not the “new hotness,” but consistently a touchdown and volume machine. If the injuries mount up again at WR, offense may lean heavily on him.

12. Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles)

• Consensus rank: 12 | [55:00]
• Notes: Entering his age-30 season, efficiency likely to keep declining—but team and line give him a chance. Past elite volume remains nice, but upside capped.
• Quote: “It was a down year big time for Saquon... It's still Saquon Barkley is my point." – Mike (55:31)

13. Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens)

• Consensus rank: 13 | [56:42]
• Notes: Age-defying but team has O-line and fullback losses; Henry should be a value unless the Ravens totally fall apart. “I've been talking about him being old for five years.” – Jason (56:53)
• Fun moment: “His body is a wonderland, a temple. It's spectacular.” – Mike (58:51)

14. Travis Hn Jr. (New Orleans Saints; formerly Etienne Jr.)

• Consensus rank: 14 | [60:05]
• Hosts’ takes: Mike highest (13), Jason lowest (18).
• Notes: Massive contract signals workhorse role; main risk is involvement of Alvin Kamara (rumored potential trade). If Kamara lingers, lower upside.

15. Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos)

• Consensus rank: 15 | [64:00]
• Notes: Perennial “solid but unspectacular” RB2. Elite yards after contact, but historically awful as a receiver (“least efficient pass catching back of our generation”). Never flashy but always steady.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This is more vibes... If you made me draft today, I’d probably draft this guy.” — Jason Moore (02:35–03:00)
• “I just think Bijan is the better running back. If I was building an NFL team, I would draft him over Gibbs.” — Jason Moore (20:15)
• “He feels more fragile to me... but then you watch him play football, you're like — that's dumb.” — Andy Holloway on James Cook (32:04)
• “I am willing to get hurt.” — Jason Moore on Ken Walker III (41:37)
• “He was the entirety of the running back position.” — Andy Holloway on Ashton Jeanty (45:13)
• “His body is a wonderland, a temple. It's spectacular.” — Mike Wright on Derrick Henry (58:51)

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Additional Insights

• Age and Volume Themes: The top tier is dominated by youth and projected heavy touches, with older backs like CMC, Saquon, and Henry discounted for projected decline but not eliminated due to proven workload and role.
• Offseason Uncertainty: Several spots (Brown, Jeanty in particular) could shift sharply due to draft outcomes or further free agency/trade activity.
• Fantasy Advice: Monitor offensive context (QB stability, offensive line health, win projection) and be cautious of RBs vulnerable to new additions or committee development.
• Ongoing Debates: Name pronunciations (Etienne/Hn, Achan/A-chan), the fleeting value of “last year’s breakout,” and how to handle players on bad teams.

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:22] - Vibes-based rankings methodology
• [07:33] - News & notes: Eagles WR trades, Green Bay WR shakeup
• [15:27] - Top 15 RB stat profile / what makes an RB1
• [18:57] - Bijan & Gibbs debate (RB1/RB2 discussion)
• [23:21] - Christian McCaffrey analysis
• [28:14] - Jonathan Taylor analysis
• [31:24] - James Cook deep dive
• [34:41] - Devon Achan breakdown
• [37:27] - Omarion Hampton outlook
• [40:26] - Kenneth Walker III discussion
• [44:16] - Ashton Jeanty projection
• [48:09] - Chase Brown risk analysis
• [51:54] - Josh Jacobs / RB cluster talk
• [55:00] - Saquon Barkley & Derrick Henry age/decline talks
• [60:05] - Travis Hn Jr & Kamara situation
• [64:00] - Javonte Williams steady RB2 value

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Final Thoughts

The Footballers’ early RB rankings reveal the “pre-draft vibes” landscape — brimming with confidence in elite youth, caution for reliable veterans, and the ever-present dread of a surprise draft pick torpedoing a budding fantasy star. Touches, touchdowns, and team health remain the pillars of RB success, but fit and context (especially post-draft) will shake things up. Look for Thursday’s episode for the same bravado applied to early WR rankings!

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Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in. Tuesday, April 14th. Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers. Mike Wright is here.

[Jason Moore]

Jason Moore accounted for.

[Mike Wright]

I'm Andy Holloway. Oh, welcome in one and all. Great show for you today. It's never too early for the early top 15 running backs.

[Andy Holloway]

Not when you call them early.

[Mike Wright]

No, we have prefaced it, these are the early top 15 running back rankings episode. Or I guess we have running backs today, wide receivers on Thursday. So getting into early rankings, these early

[Jason Moore]

rankings are really about the heart, you know what I mean? Because, like, when our fully established rankings come out, when, you know, at June 1st, the ultimate draft kit, we've statted everybody out. This is like, this is more vibes, you know what I mean? I'm like, I like this guy more. I don't have him statted out yet. And I'm not sure 100% that, like, that's how the chips are going to fall.

[Mike Wright]

But if you made me draft today, I'd probably draft this guy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, exactly.

[Mike Wright]

So we're going to go through our top 15 by consensus. So we have some differences of opinion and they get averaged out Here. So that's the main, the main event today. We got some news to talk about as well. A reminder, you can watch the show over on YouTube. YouTube.com the Fantasy Footballer. Subscribe. Click the bell. We do some live events over there. That way you know what's going on.

[Andy Holloway]

We have a magic wall and we

[Mike Wright]

have a magic wall. That's what we should just call it. We do. We have a magic wall if at any moment.

[Andy Holloway]

Magic Mike's wall.

[Mike Wright]

If we want to just be in the middle of the Caribbean.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it's just, it's good for search engine stuff, Jay.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

He wants the, he wants naming rights on the wall.

[Jason Moore]

He wants Magic Mike's. I think you're going to get different results. You know what I mean? We're not going to crack that.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just trying to get a new audience.

[Mike Wright]

All right, YouTube for the magic wall. Mike's Magic wall.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, no. Magic Mike's Wall. That's what it is.

[Mike Wright]

The draft kit is ultimate draftkit.com if you want to go preorder it, it is the best possible price right now. You will get instant access to the Dynasty Pass if you pick up the ultimate draft kit. And you know, we're almost to the draft. We're 10 days away, which is crazy.

[Andy Holloway]

And we're, we're rapidly approaching crazy season.

[Mike Wright]

And we're, we're even still being surprised at times.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what I mean. We're. We're in it where you're group think and just like in fantasy football when you get in the tops, like some group think does start to take over and NFL mock drafts, it's hard to not have, you know, let me peek at my friend's paper and see how they're doing things over there. But we just had Daniel Jeremiah, who's great at his job. I love Daniel Jeremiah.

[Mike Wright]

Always had you like to start conversations

[Andy Holloway]

about somebody because Papa Josh great at his job. But no, we don't ever see that.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, okay, good point.

[Andy Holloway]

Like Papa Josh is a guy. That's the. And then you go from there.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

But he had Jeremiah love not only falling in the, in the top 10, which I did.

[Mike Wright]

I do believe that that could happen.

[Andy Holloway]

That could happen, sure.

[Mike Wright]

But the team.

[Andy Holloway]

But going to the Kansas City Chiefs at nine after making Ken Bone Walker the fourth highest paid running back, it just is like that's what teams, teams do wild stuff. But that would just be such a use of your assets to make your team better, to just lock them all into the running back position.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, that really would be the closest thing to the running back version of Michael Pinnick's junior to the Falcons, where you spent the off season spending huge money on somebody. Now, you don't normally do that at running back. Especially when you look at that team and you're like, well, they could use Makai Lumen, they could use Jordan Tyson, they could use Carnell Tate. One of those guys would be there at nine.

[Andy Holloway]

Certainly at least one will be there,

[Mike Wright]

if not all three. Kenyon, Sadiq. So don't.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't put Sadiq to the Chiefs. Jay.

[Jason Moore]

Why?

[Andy Holloway]

Because we can't survive it. I know all of us who are holding the wall of like, Kenyan. Sadiq has some red flags in his profile. He is as a prospect, you're like, golly, it's really hard not to push up the chips all the way into the middle of the table with what he can do, just who he is

[Mike Wright]

as an athlete with.

[Andy Holloway]

But then you put him on the Chiefs and it's like it'll be Clyde Edwards Allaire all over again. You will just any red flag, you just, you'll split them in half and you'll go right through them and say, what, what, what problems? He's on the Chiefs.

[Mike Wright]

That's everything that the draft represents, that level of conversation and insanity. And there will be. It might not be Jeremiah Love to the Chiefs, but there will be so Kidoki.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, we got a Magic Mike wall.

[Mike Wright]

See, we didn't.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, goodness gracious.

[Mike Wright]

We did not ask for that.

[Jason Moore]

No, I'm out of here.

[Andy Holloway]

See, we got a new audience coming in.

[Jason Moore]

Al comes back from vacation and he's just thinks he could do anything.

[Mike Wright]

Am I wrong that I'm mad at how long it took? If that was the gag, that was a while.

[Jason Moore]

It should be pretty quick, I would think.

[Andy Holloway]

He doesn't have all the protocol down for Mike's or Magic Mike's wall yet.

[Mike Wright]

There's just no reason for any of this to have happened today. Okay, we got news to talk about. We'll do it right now.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Mike Wright]

The Eagles have acquired Johan Dotson. Oh, wait, no, no, no, sorry. It's this year's Johan Dodson. It's Don Tavian Wicks from the Packers.

[Andy Holloway]

They already acquired this year's Johan Dotson when they picked up Hollywood Brown.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, so this could be and different.

[Andy Holloway]

And Elijah Moore.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, they did.

[Andy Holloway]

Also on the team, don't forget.

[Mike Wright]

Well, because I did one Elijah Moore plus one Hollywood plus one Dontavian Wicks equals one traded AJ Brown.

[Jason Moore]

It Feels that way. It definitely feels like this is all preparation for him saying sayonara.

[Mike Wright]

I mean it was two picks.

[Andy Holloway]

It was a fifth, fifth round and a sixth round, fifth round this year, sixth round next year and they gave him a one year twelve and a half million dollar extension which I don't remember. Kyle, do you remember what the Hollywood Brown contract was?

[Mike Wright]

Wicks is the best player not named A.J. brown and Devonte Smith in the wide receiver room. But on a team that doesn't throw the ball with the volume that we're excited for in fantasy combined with, you know, do they take, I mean they've been rumored to be a home for Tyson or one of these young wide receivers. They will draft one as well. That's what I'm saying. They're going to draft a wide receiver. A.J. brown will be a Patriot. That's what I believe.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Rossini told me and.

[Andy Holloway]

We don't have any answers, people.

[Jason Moore]

We got questions.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we got the same questions you do. Oh, I could tell you.

[Mike Wright]

Did you feel like Dangerfield on that?

[Andy Holloway]

I could tell you boots on the ground. I have been to that resort.

[Mike Wright]

Mike has been to that same. He has inside.

[Andy Holloway]

I went with my wife to this resort.

[Jason Moore]

It is romantic.

[Andy Holloway]

It is a very romantic spot. That's just telling you. I've been there. Not saying one way or the other, but I've been.

[Jason Moore]

I believe you said that the spot

[Andy Holloway]

of that photograph was on top of a room. It is a private balcony that all the rooms have.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And Mike did the research.

[Jason Moore]

No answers.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, no answers. Just.

[Andy Holloway]

Just questions. Hollywood Brown was a 1 year 5 million.

[Mike Wright]

Hollywood doesn't matter more. Really doesn't matter. Wicks could matter a little bit.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

But you have to convince yourself that the number two or three guy on this, I mean Dallas Goddard, is he still a question mark?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean he's a question mark because he's never done anything until last year.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just saying from a past catching standpoint, it's just hard for me to believe Wicks will be relevant regularly of

[Andy Holloway]

course but it'll be the. What's his ADP like? Wicks will probably be left into the double digit rounds of someone who's interesting to take a shot.

[Mike Wright]

He's the last round pick guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Also the Green Bay packers implication that one is almost more interesting because when so Dobbs left and it was like oh well, Wicks might hang on and actually be, you know, somewhat relevant on the packers. Well, so they trade him away. So you have, you have Watson Reed and Matthew golden are your primary wideouts. And as Tucker Kraft comes back from the ACL injury. But it's like t if you're team golden, just keep. Hope they keep shipping these wide receivers out.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I know. I think. I think Christian Watson. I mean before this move, Watson was climbing up my boards as a true. Like, I agree early my guy candidate. That is happening. You know, Wick's leaving. It makes it even more of a just is he going to be healthy? And if he's healthy, he's probably going to be good. Devon Hn not close to agreeing on a contract extension so far. That makes sense. It's April and he just stopped showing up. So they'll work on that. Travis Hunter expected to be a full time cornerback this upcoming season.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, man.

[Mike Wright]

Now let me tell you a little story. Once upon a time, moments before this. Moments before this news formally broke, there have been. There's been speculation that this might be the case. Still, there was talk about Brian Thomas Jr. Getting traded. Like that's still a rumor. So I thought to myself, like, maybe, maybe I could get Travis Hunter super cheap.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, interesting.

[Mike Wright]

In a dynasty league.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Because of the rumors. And maybe I'm like, this guy's too good of a wide receiver to keep him off the field anyways. I pulled that trade back. Yeah. As soon as this news broke. And I'm very, very happy that I did because it would have been. It would have been a problem.

[Jason Moore]

It is a very interesting question. In dynasties, what do you do if you have Travis Hunter? You invested a early pick.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, he was a like the one of five.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. First round pick last year. And now you're worried, presuming you're not in an IDP league where you can use him as a cornerback. You're worried that he might literally have no value for the rest of his career for fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

My whole thought on it was that one, where he was drafted and two, he's. He was the. Wasn't he the Bulitnikov winner at wide receiver? Is that the. Maybe that's a tight end award. What Isn't Bulitnikov wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

The Belitnikov is wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

But I don't remember if Hunter won it.

[Mike Wright]

He won the Heisman.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you, Kyle. Also, he also won the BaliTnikov Award. Spell as the nation's most.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, please spell Bulletnikov B.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I. Litnikov.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, that is correct. He was the nation's most outstanding receiver. To me, you look at that situation and you're like, how do you keep that guy off of the Offensive side, one injury, one situation. I think his days contributing on offense are not over. I will say that. But I'm not trading what I was offering.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, so what would you trade him away for if you had him?

[Mike Wright]

A future second?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I'd still need a first.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I don't think you're getting a first.

[Andy Holloway]

But then I'm not trading. I'm saying, like, dad, you have to come. I have to recoup something.

[Mike Wright]

I was offered Travis Hunter for a couple future seconds and I turned that down and countered with a like a 2028 third and a 2027 second. And then I pulled that away when this news broke. But I think this, this news is a bit. Could be premature. I mean, Travis Hunter is debating disputing it, isn't he?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he said something on Twitter, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

[Mike Wright]

Bayshalt Tootin Rumors. Let's just stay with Jacksonville. Roll an opportunity. Going to see a major hiker. Amazing breaking news here. Travis H.N. jr.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Was traded. That's signed by the Saints. By the way, this is our first attempt at properly pronouncing his name.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to go ahead and put myself out there on a limb and say I'm going to get it wrong.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's all right. But we're going to try.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So we'll give it a go. Formerly the Artist formerly known as Travis Etn. Travis H.N.

[Andy Holloway]

jr.

[Mike Wright]

In New Orleans. Yeah. The opportunity is of course going to go up for Bashaw Tootin. Can I report stuff like this?

[Andy Holloway]

John Shipley did, but it's also he believes we're not 100% sure.

[Mike Wright]

This is on us for mentioning it. Bijan Robinson's fifth year option has been picked up. He's going to be expensive soon. We're going to go ahead and kick it off here. We're going to get right into the running backs.

[Jason Moore]

Running backs.

[Mike Wright]

I can't believe we're here, guys. Our top 15 running backs early rankings. We get to discuss a number of these players there will we should also layer in like could they get messed up in the draft? If there's any other names in there. Kyle, put together some stats for us. What makes a top 15 running back the average for a top 10 top 15 running back? 312 opportunities, 250 rushing attempts, about 1100 yards on the ground, 10 rushing touchdowns. On average, 60 targets, 47 receptions, 365 and three in the receiving game. So over the last five years, 77% of top 15 running backs averaged at least 18 opportunities a game. So you need workload.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

77% had at least 10 total touchdowns. So between, you know, the rushing work and the receiving work, at least 10 touchdowns. And then, you know, they were also on winning teams.

[Andy Holloway]

This one. This one matters, though.

[Mike Wright]

Top 15 running backs are on NFL teams that average 8.9 wins.

[Andy Holloway]

Like, when you're going through the list, there's. There are definitely guys who will break through because they, you know, like, like Devin Hn or. No, no, I'm messing his name. It's not Devon Hn.

[Mike Wright]

It's not Devon etn.

[Andy Holloway]

That's good. I froze there. Devon Hn.

[Mike Wright]

You're any Hn in the conversation.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, my gosh. We'll get it. But it's like the Dolphins, they don't project to be a great team.

[Mike Wright]

Let me ask you this.

[Andy Holloway]

Some guys can break through hn.

[Mike Wright]

Is it a. Is it like a Louisiana way of saying etn? Like, kind of.

[Jason Moore]

We do.

[Andy Holloway]

We have Papa Josh here who grew up in Louisiana. He did confirm this.

[Mike Wright]

The way they pronounce things is very different. Thank you. Thank you. So anyways, you're going to mess up. Poor Devon Hn is going to get

[Andy Holloway]

messed up if he already did.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I was like, oh, crap. If you didn't see Kyle Brandt talking about the name swap. Well, not swap. The correction of Achan. Him bringing up Brett Favre was like the funniest part because it's like. Yeah, hold on now.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Those are in the wrong order.

[Andy Holloway]

The letters, they're backwards.

[Mike Wright]

The problem isn't the name at all. The problem is I wish we would have known sooner.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. When you go to the NFL combine, or at least like the NFL draft, when you're drafted, that should be part of the processes. Okay, now tell us second contract.

[Mike Wright]

Name changes are not. I'm not cool.

[Jason Moore]

The only time that it's acceptable is if you're basically adding a senior. You had a son. Now you could. You can amend your name. I think it's, you know, there's, there's, There should be rules in life, but

[Andy Holloway]

you're bringing up a good point. Like, how is the NFL? Do they not do this?

[Jason Moore]

They must not.

[Andy Holloway]

Like when they. Seems pretty easy to combine. Give me your name.

[Mike Wright]

See, I don't state your name. Maybe you change your mind on how you say it.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, they called him ETN for so long that maybe he was just fine with it. He's just.

[Mike Wright]

Whatever.

[Andy Holloway]

I can't keep correcting people.

[Mike Wright]

But now he got paid.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And it's time to.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right.

[Mike Wright]

Straighten people out. But this is your last one. None of this chosen Anderson stuff. We're not doing this 10 times. We're not doing this 20 times for you. All right, you guys ready to get started?

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Well, we'll include number one and number two in the same discussion pretty much because the debate is going to be these two guys. But number one on our list, Bijan Robinson. Number two, Jameer Gibbs. We did not all agree with the order here. You guys both had Bijan at number one. I have Jameer Gibbs at number one. That is. That is just a product of the Montgomery.

[Andy Holloway]

How dare you.

[Mike Wright]

I know it's on. It's unacceptable, but. Yeah, I just like Detroit's offense more. That's it.

[Jason Moore]

That makes sense. I mean, you just talked about these top running backs usually come from good teams. Right now it's a seven and a half win total for the Falcons. They haven't had a winning season in

[Andy Holloway]

quite some time since 2017.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

Gross.

[Jason Moore]

Sorry, Kyle. Not sorry. I'm a Cardinals fan.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the Cardinals are like one in 10 years.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's not sorry. That's congrats.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, your team is pretty good. But yeah, I mean, the question between Bijon and Jameer Gibbs is splitting hairs. I think the more explosive games will come from Jameer Gibbs. You don't see as many breakaway touchdown runs from Bijan usually. Although he did last year. He did have a couple. You know, he's been last year and now this off season training with cmc. It seemed like he got a little bit more explosive last year. Maybe that'll be. I just think Bijan is the better running back. The just overall, you know, if I was building a NFL team, I would. I would draft him over Gibbs.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he is a video game character. Number one, enforced missed tackles on rush attempts. Number one in yards after contact. Number one among all running backs in percentage of teams first read targets. You know, I don't know or like their quarterback situation. So we'll see how their offense is able to move.

[Andy Holloway]

They agree.

[Mike Wright]

Jameer Gibbs also is getting. I know we like to joke about the blobfish, but the running scheme, I trust it in Detroit. So it's splitting hairs. I lean the Gibbs way. It's hard to repeat at number one. You do see changes and I like them winning more games. I just think that there's no one to compete with Gibbs at all. Bijan's amazing. Flip a coin.

[Jason Moore]

The really ironic and insulting thing here is we're talking about who between these two guys. Should be the running back one, and it's those two. And we're not even considering the guy who was the running back one, Christian McCaffrey, who very well might just continue scoring more fantasy points than every other player out there, as he has done multiple times in his career. Is this just age?

[Mike Wright]

Gibbs was tied with McCaffrey in the first read Targets, you know, getting the receiving work. So we like that as a special recipe. But, yeah, I think. I think it's age, injury risk. I mean, it's not a small difference. Number three is Christian McCaffrey. We'll take a quick break and come back and talk about last year's absolutely dominant victory lap for Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

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No.

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[Mike Wright]

All right, Jason, you brought it up. Christian McCaffrey. Right now we all have him at three, so that's including Mike. Mike is one of us.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

And he has him at three. It was an incredible year. He had 413 touches, which is the most since DeMarco Murray in 2014. I remember that DeMarco Murray season.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yes.

[Mike Wright]

And I remember it didn't. It wasn't that good forever. CMC has been good forever. It's. It's wild. I mean, it. It was everything that Mike could have dreamed and more. 21.5 fantasy points per game and all the touches he could handle.

[Andy Holloway]

He.

[Mike Wright]

In 17 weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep. That's the thing, is he stayed healthy, you know, there's numbers of running backs who get this many opportunities, then they get hurt the next year. It was, you know, like this was part of the conversation for Saquon Barkley going into last season. But it's like I don't know for sure if this is truly a correlation or causation event of like, well, I had all these opportunities. It sort of makes sense. But it's just every running back gets hurt when you play all 17 games. As much faith as I had in McCaffrey, I didn't expect 17 games. That's preposterous to expect it from anyone at the running back position. You, when you draft him, you should think, I Hope I'm getting 15 games from this player and I hope they're not out. In championship week he only played.

[Mike Wright]

He's played 17 weeks twice and both times it was after a seven game season and a four game season.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So he definitely didn't. You know, you talk about workload, this will be the interesting one.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not the same player. Like this is not McCaffrey of two years ago. Watching him, you know that where he always had kind of a sneakier burst and like was you're like, oh yeah, Chris McCaffrey really is faster than I remember. That's. That's going down it. But he's going to catch the ball so much. You have the George Kittle torn Achilles is a situation because it's a weird of well, if he's out, I would expect McCaffrey to catch the ball more. But if George Kittle is out, it's not as good for. For Christian McCaffrey in the San Francisco 49ers, their offense, they really need guys there.

[Jason Moore]

Like who's really bringing in Mike Evans.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

I think helps their passing game a lot because the receiving game is like

[Andy Holloway]

it's one like you lost George Kittle and now you're bringing in Mike Evans. I mean there's so you really only. You have like one alpha player besides Christian McCaffrey.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. It's funny, when they got in the red zone, they passed the ball to McCaffrey. McCaffrey led the league in red zone receptions tied with Almond Raw, which that's the first running back to ever do that. And so I do think in the red zone, Mike Evans is going to be a pretty important piece.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Of that offense and Kittle coming back eventually.

[Mike Wright]

So they'll have both in the red zone.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So I mean that's. You can't really say much negative on Christian McCaffrey. Other than just with that much work and at his age he carries a lot of risk and we've seen it before. But if he's on the field, he's going to score more fantasy points than.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, to Mike's point about not being the same guy during his prime seasons, his average long run was like 26.5, 20.5. Last, last year there were. It was like 13, like he didn't. And that, that's just looking at all the long every game. What was his long run in every game? Averaging it out. He didn't have as many explosive plays. I think the second to last game of the season he had a 44 yard run.

[Andy Holloway]

He had a 41 yard run. But before that his long on the year was 24. So he really, he wasn't ripping.

[Mike Wright]

What was his yards per carry?

[Andy Holloway]

3.9.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So this was a product of volume. And so if the volume comes down, whenever the volume eventually comes down for McAfee, you're going to see those numbers come down. He's not going to do it forever, but he can probably do it again On a team projected to win ten and a half games. We just talked about that recipe for success. They're not going to go away from him unless injury comes his way. So you know Mike, considering what he represented value wise last year compared to what he's going to cost this year, how are you looking at the McCaffrey proposition compared to the other names?

[Andy Holloway]

So right now on underdog, so in basketball he's going as the running back. 4. I think we have him at 3. 3 or 4 is fine. I just, I feel my confidence level in Bijan and Jameer Gibbs is just much higher than it is in McCaffrey because those guys are, they're still younger and they can still rip off the 50 yard touchdowns every once in a while. So this, I'm not, I'm not abandoning McCaffrey, but I just prefer the other two guys if I'm picking 101.

[Mike Wright]

Last year the number two running back was, believe it or not, Jonathan Taylor, who comes in at number four for us in our early running back rankings. I have him at six. Jason and Mike have him at four. What? It's been an interesting career for him. I mean sophomore season he's the number one overall fantasy running back. Goes through a couple years where he's missed time, banged up offensive and quarterback problems. Has kind of a more of a weird year in 2024. Finishes his RB9, Anthony Richardson Co. Figuring out was that a Carson Wentz here, I don't remember when the Carson Wentz here was but probably the year before. But we, we just didn't get to see that like top tier Jonathan Taylor again until last year. They got the offense figured out with Daniel Jones and all of a sudden he was a dominator again. It's his best season since 2021 and he was a steal in drafts. He was the RB9 off the board.

[Jason Moore]

So I think you as someone who in our league of record I had Jonathan Taylor and my goodness, I was, I was ready to sell early in the, in the year. You were ready to bail for the future and I'm like, I can't. I've got Jonathan Taylor. He is single handedly going to win people championships. The first 10 weeks of the season when their offense was good, he was lapping the field. Christian McCaffrey was the running back to at 21.4 points. Jonathan Taylor was averaging 25.9.

[Mike Wright]

It was so crazy the breakaway runs and the. You would be carried by him.

[Jason Moore]

He was unstoppable. And so I think the big question mark for Jonathan Taylor is the health of Daniel Jones. We'll know as we get closer to the season what this offense looks like, but it really is about

[Andy Holloway]

that is

[Jason Moore]

the question to me because I think he could absolutely be the number one running back better than Bijon if their offense is good, if their team is good, which that was the surprise last year. The Colts were not supposed to be a good team and then it turned out they were the number one seed late into the season.

[Mike Wright]

Well, that's two questions then. Question one is will Daniel Jones be healthy? And question two is if Daniel Jones is healthy, are they a good team?

[Jason Moore]

I think so. I think, I think that they will be. He is competent enough to allow like Daniel Jones is competent enough to allow Jonathan Taylor to not just see stacked boxes. And if you don't stack the box against big old Johnny Taylor, he's going right through you.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, once Daniel Jones went down, they were I think leading the league in points per game at almost 30. They went down to 20 points per game with Rivers and Leonard Riley. Leonard, we don't know if Daniel Jones is going to be 100% when the season starts. So that does add some risk to Jonathan Taylor. So but you know, in terms of the top tier names, it's hard not to include him. Number five, James Cook. I have him at four, so I do have him ahead of Jonathan Taylor. Jason and Mike, you both got him at 5. James Cook has basically forced Himself into this conversation with the consistent play and the way the team is running the football and making that a priority.

[Andy Holloway]

He is. He's strange because he feels like the anomaly to me of. Anomaly. Okay, did I say it wrong?

[Mike Wright]

He said it interestingly.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, well, however I said it, that's what he is because he's an interesting player of. You know, Andy ran through the numbers of like, on average, you know, the running backs in the top 15. Top 15 are getting 60 targets. Cook is at 40.

[Jason Moore]

He's never had 60.

[Andy Holloway]

This is not someone who's just, you know, the hitting you with the PPR scam. Just get padding those points at the. The end of the half or at the end of the game. That's not been the game. It's just.

[Jason Moore]

He just.

[Andy Holloway]

He's so dominant on the ground. And the touchdown regression that. That never showed up. They just. They kept using him the same exact way, but he feels. Oh, I. James Cook is. It's frustrating because he feels more fragile to me. But then you watch him play football, you're like, that's dumb. You should not have any concerns about it.

[Mike Wright]

You mean physically or his. His consistency, like physically fragile?

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, no, no, no. I'm not even talking about his size. I'm talking about how he's utilized in an offense like that. He's. It's more like Derek Henry.

[Mike Wright]

It is. That's a good.

[Jason Moore]

And he's £190. That's the weird thing is he's. He is not.

[Mike Wright]

He had the league, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. In rushing. I believe he did.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So I mean, the other thing that's like.

[Andy Holloway]

Like Derek, what did I say for Cook for targets? Did I say 40?

[Jason Moore]

He had 40 targets.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Henry's a. So I get that's a sizable gap, but it's like both of those are not numbers that are. That you would typically expect from a guy in the top five.

[Mike Wright]

He had 11 top 10 finishes, so only CMC had more. Which is like the anti fragility argument is that if you finished in the top 10 that many times, you actually were the most reliable. He was. He was pretty dominant all season long.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. He also played every single game.

[Mike Wright]

So I mean, I didn't expect them to pay him and then he would just walk into the shoes that they paid him to walk into.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. The size of the contract they gave him based off of how much work they were allowing him to take didn't seem to match. And they corrected that.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, the nice thing is, I agree with you, Mike. He's always the scariest pick to me because it's like undersized, not super involved in the passing game.

[Andy Holloway]

Do not want to play against him though.

[Jason Moore]

No, no. I mean he's on a great offense. That's the one thing that we know is that Josh Allen and the Bills, they're going to score a lot of touchdowns. So his opportunities to have a lot of touchdowns is much better than say Bijan's. But he's always the one that I'm holding my breath when I draft even though he is literally leading the league in rushing.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm trying to change that. That's why I got him where he's at. I think he's, you know, we have consistency on the offense with Brady now. So I'm pretty excited about another solid season from James Cook. I don't think DJ Moore is going to talk me out of him in any capacity. You're always going to have Josh Allen as a threat to steal some of those goal line TDs. But over the last two years it's, it's been wild. Devon ETN at number six. We can't just flip them.

[Andy Holloway]

Probably not going to confuse us.

[Mike Wright]

See, we had to do it. That's the funny thing about it. We had to do it with a Chan.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Because when he was coming out he was a Chan.

[Jason Moore]

A chain.

[Mike Wright]

He was a chain and then he corrected it. So anything to do with a Chan gets corrected. Devon a. Chan is 24 years old. I got him at 5, Jason and Mike at 6. He had 11 plus fantasy points in every single game he played last year. He was the picture of consistency. He was the only, one of the only watchable parts of that team.

[Jason Moore]

I mean his consistency is outrageous. You look at his just his game log last year and his worst game was double digit fantasy points. The worst, no real bad games the entire season and a inconsistency. Now he is finding himself in a situation where you expect the offense to be bad. Like I think that this will be a bottom third offense. However he is all of it. You know he's going to catch a million passes this next year and I don't know how it doesn't work when you are, when you are so good at pass catching at the running back position. That's the one area where I think you can be on a poor team and still succeed for fantasy. Because if you're down, you just get in dump offs like crazy.

[Mike Wright]

1350 rushing yards to go with it. This will be a team with a brand new quarterback, a brand New head coach and offensive coordinator. Probably two rookie wide receivers will be talking about after the draft. I don't know what their names will be, but they'll probably draft at least two worth talking about because they don't have anybody else. No more Tyree Kill, no more Jalen Waddle, and we will go into the season really questioning their offensive capability. The nice thing about that is I feel like we're probably only going to be able to be pleasantly surprised with the expectations because you just said it and you've been saying it all off season. I don't necessarily think the Dolphins are going to suck on offense, but because they did suck on offense.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

And so. And HN was awesome. So I think that Malik Willis is a. I liked him right in the off season, so I think he. There's the possibility that we get surprised in a positive way. Hn to me is still one of those guys that can finish it number one at the position. Not everybody's going to agree with that, but I believe it's very possible with his consistency and big plays. So number seven, Omari and Hampton. Okay. All right. Omarion Hampton, I got him at 8, Jason at 7, Mike at 10. A little bit more of a disparity here. He got it going. Started to get it going in week three. Najee Harris got hurt. Top 10 finishes in weeks three and four. Then he gets hurt in week five and you don't see him again until week 14. They had established other running backs in the offense. He was not fully healthy. Doesn't really have a big fantasy finish to the year, and here he is at seven.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it takes a lot of projecting here. He hasn't done it yet. We don't know that he's going to have the workload that you would hope to be drafting him as like the running back seven. But the projection for me is very easy. The dude is awesome. I mean, as a prospect coming out of college, he was a top tier. He's an S class type of running back. To me, the fact that he hasn't done it yet means that I think there will be value in the draft. I don't think he's going to, you know, he. He could very well finish super high. I think the offense is good. Justin Herbert is good. Their offensive line, they got the best center in the, in the league. Out of nowhere, they're getting their left tackle and right tackle back. I'm. I'm just very bullish about the opportunity and the player. So it is projection to say I think he's going to get the workload. That's the scary part is what if it's. What if it's more of a timeshare than we hoped?

[Mike Wright]

When I was looking at the top 15 running backs and we, you know, we rank beyond 15 to get to our consensus, it was very clear that there's only. There's only so many names where you can create the narrative and the path and the story of how it's going to go extremely well from a workload perspective. Offense, touchdown opportunities, good team. Hampton's in that category. There's not. You drop down this list. There's certain guys that you just can't make the case that they're going to be everything for their team. He certainly could be underdog. ADP has him at RB10. That would be kind of the value you're potentially talking about, you know, in your situation. This is a borderline first round running back for fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's how I view him and

[Mike Wright]

I can definitely see it. I want it to happen. Let me be very clear. I really want it to happen. I don't know why I'm as nervous, but I think it's just like you said, we didn't get to see a lot last year. Yeah, they were handing him the keys. He could have been a fantasy MVP had he been healthy.

[Andy Holloway]

You didn't see a lot, you know, on the. At the very beginning when he had to get everything, like he wasn't as efficient on the ground. You know what of his first five games, he had one huge game. The 12 for 128 including a 54 yard run. But it's like each other, each of the other four games he's 3.7 yards a carrier or fewer now they had offensive line struggles. So it's just. I think that's all a part of it. And you had as it seems ridiculous to be like, okay, we're talking about Hampton, a first round NFL pick and then we got Kamani Vidal Sassoon who is just feels like he should be an afterthought. But he was quite good for the team and Harbaugh was talking about quite a bit. Although you know this Harbaugh really talks up his players. They bring in Keaton Mitchell and free agency. I think Hampton's going to be like a workhorse, but I'm a little more hesitant compared to you guys.

[Mike Wright]

Number eight, Kenneth Walker. The third.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah baby.

[Mike Wright]

Jason and I have him at nine, Mike at seven.

[Jason Moore]

Surprise.

[Mike Wright]

Not one underdog. ADP is nine. Where Jason?

[Andy Holloway]

I've got a Few months. Jay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me craft the narrative.

[Mike Wright]

You know, we've talked, I think the most about Ken Walker of all the names on this entire list. So I don't. I don't know how much we need to get into it. My hesitation is only that it has been lined up for him to succeed many times in the past and something gets in the way of it in terms of being an every week dominator as opposed to an occasional week dominator. I think we are all waiting to see is Mahomes going to be back for week one? Is this offense going to get back on track to be what they are supposed to be? Nine is not disrespectful. Nine is good. I'm happy with nine.

[Andy Holloway]

It's kind of disrespectful.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, for the RB22 last year,

[Andy Holloway]

for the Super Bowl MVP.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, my God. Yeah. Like Sonny Michelle.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you really liked Sony Michelle after it was a Super bowl mvp.

[Mike Wright]

I did and I learned my lesson and I've changed.

[Andy Holloway]

You went in on the wrong guy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, this is obviously tough.

[Mike Wright]

It should work.

[Jason Moore]

It should work. Everything's lined up for him. You know, his rookie year, he was the running back 16, then the running back 19. Last year, the running back 22. And there's always been, whether it's injury or Charbonnet or whatever, something getting his way. The money they gave him was so much that I just don't. I don't think that there's any world where he doesn't dominate total touches. He could still get injured. But on a good offense with Andy Reid, with that investment I am in, I am willing to get hurt.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, there we go. At a guy.

[Mike Wright]

I say all this. I mean, I've got. He's one of my keepers, Mike, My guy. You know what I mean? My keeper.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

So I wonder what. I'd love to have you dunk on me all year long while he scores points for me.

[Andy Holloway]

I wonder what the targets will look like because I went back to look. So Kareem Hunt, year two for him, which that was essentially the Mahomes first year. So it's, you know, not as rookie year, but his sophomore year and going from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes, Kareem hunt dropped from 63 to 35 targets. Now, there's a game disparity, but there's that. That's the only way I think it goes sour as we don't. If we're not getting like a 10% target share, then you'll be more like the running back 10.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. Yeah, that'll be something. And that. That might. What happens in the draft, whether Sadiq or Lemon or Tyson or.

[Andy Holloway]

Or Jordan or Jeremiah Love.

[Mike Wright]

Or Jeremiah Love. Oh, that will. That'll make a difference.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man, that'll be.

[Mike Wright]

I don't want to see that because it's terrible for fantasy. It's terrible for both players. Both players.

[Andy Holloway]

My mental health.

[Mike Wright]

I will laugh profusely for so long. I mean, God forbid that Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker are impacted. Michael. Michael, lose it. We'll take a quick break. We'll come back with the rest of the

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[Mike Wright]

We are continuing our top 15 early running back rankings. Number nine, Ashton Genty. I've got him at seven, Jason at eight, Mike dumping on him at 12. Not surprising. But just based on some of the conversations we've had and the concerns that you've had for I think a committee backfield and again that are you on a good team factor, both of those kind of came true last year. I mean, Ashton Jinty, he suffered under the thumb of the league's worst team. I mean, they got the number one pick. They have Fernanda Mendoza on the way for a reason. He had to be a part of a putrid, abysmal offense all year long. So some might look at the RB12 finish as a rookie and say that's darn impressive for that to be on that team. Because what did we say? The average team wins nine games to be a top 15 running back.

[Jason Moore]

He was the RB12 on the team that got the number one pick.

[Mike Wright]

So I lean a little bit to that glass half full side of things.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean the hard part for that is the way you overcome being on a bad team is workload. And Ashton Genti was 39% of the team's rushing attempts and targets. That is McCaffrey, Johnny Taylor and Bijon are the only running backs who had a higher percentage so he was the entirety of the running back position. And because the team was so bad that's. You only had a couple spike weeks from Genti and he didn't finish as he was drafted as you had hoped. The offensive line was putrid. Now they've, they've. They went out and they got Linda Baum from the Ravens. That certainly helps. But the, I mean the metrics on their offensive line is pretty close to dead last in you know, yards before contact stuff rate, rush success rate. As in these things were all bad for running backs behind this, this line. So that. And then. And the stat that you're alluding to Andy. So running backs with a rookie quarterback. Over the last decade, teams with a rookie QB who have started 10 or more games aka their rookie quarterback is their full time starter, the running back one for those teams averaged seven and a half total touchdowns. That is a. That's a very scary number when you're looking at the other running backs who are in this range.

[Mike Wright]

The thing with him is it might not be Mendoza for a while and we do like the new head coach Kubiak coming in. So those are.

[Andy Holloway]

I do, I agree. It's just how long until Mendoza comes in?

[Jason Moore]

I mean it could be the year when, when Kirk Cousins is there. One of the things that was great about Genty and the usage that you were just alluding to is that Geno Smith checked the ball down a lot. Geno Smith would throw. I don't know that Mendoza will do that as a rookie to the same degree. But Kirk Cousins will. Kirk Cousins will check it down a ton of. I think the touchdown totals could be higher and hopefully you get half a season before that transition is made.

[Andy Holloway]

I believe end of year Bijan was excellent. Yes. And that was Kirk Cousins as the quarterback on a bad team.

[Jason Moore]

I, I definitely believe that Cubes wants a committee here. I do not believe he can do it. They don't have. There's not a free agent to sign right now that could hurt him. And really this, this is not a running back class where nine days from now I'm afraid of what happens to Genti. So I think he will have a solid workload and obviously he has the talent to be talked about as just a pure running back like Bijan, like Gibbs.

[Mike Wright]

It's a big part of it is believing in the talent that he possesses. Number 10 is Chase Brown. I've got him at 10, Jason at 10, Mike at 9. Underdog has him at re 13. So we're above at least best ball ADP with Chase Brown, I'll bet people

[Jason Moore]

are afraid of the draft.

[Mike Wright]

I'm afraid of the draft with Chase, I think, I think Chase I was

[Andy Holloway]

last year very fair.

[Mike Wright]

I was afraid last year and we got. We came out unscathed. And he ended up being the worst player in fantasy for a few weeks until Mike could acquire him and he could dominate for the rest of the year.

[Andy Holloway]

I put a call in. Yeah, I was like, dude, Jake Brown, get him in there, take your value real quick and that'd be awesome.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, he was a true workhorse. The RB7, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game on 100 total yards per game from week six on first five weeks. Very powerful in the psyche of fantasy football players. They make a big impact. We just talked about Tucker Kraft. It felt like Tucker Kraft was a part of a, like a majority of last year. Yeah, he wasn't. He was a part of like six weeks. But those first six weeks with all the anticipation, that's. It makes a big deal, a big impact on fantasy players. So Chase Brown started slow, ended hot, was truly dominant. And if he's alone, he should be fine.

[Jason Moore]

If he's alone, he's fine. I mean, this is the player definitely most liable. I am terrified for his value if Love were to fall to 10, which I know is not likely, but if that happens, they will take him. This is a team that has brought in a lot of running backs for top 30 visits. So they are looking at this position as one of a position of need. And you know, I know I just said that this isn't a great draft class for the running back position, but there are a couple of guys out here that, I mean, I just don't think Chase Brown can be great if he's not getting. I don't. I don't think you're going to like him in fantasy as a 50, 50 guy.

[Mike Wright]

They did bring back P. Ryan.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Who was in addition later in the season last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. But. Yeah, so P. Ryan and the. And they've drafted Taj Brooks. So last year. Yeah. As we are going through this argument, there were, there were Brooks supporters who were like, that was it. That's the guy that's going to come in and fully disrupt his backfield and take over and make Chase Brown irrelevant. So it. If they like. Let's say it's round three, Jay, it's round three. It's a guy you already don't like. Are you going to let that influence Brown here?

[Jason Moore]

I think I would. If it's round Three meaning day two. If it's a day.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

If it's a day two pick. Yeah. That'll. That will lower him in my rankings. Even if it's, you know, Mike Washington in round three, I'll be like, yeah, they're not drafting him to not give him the work. Taj was what, like fifth round, sixth round?

[Andy Holloway]

He was a. He was day three.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean they didn't invest in him a sixth round pick. So that would be very different to me if they use a top three pick on a running back.

[Mike Wright]

I think, I think I'm. While I'm a little bit afraid, I think Chase Brown's probably going to be okay. And I think that this team would be wise to go into the season leaning on him for another year versus drafting a non defensive player.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like if love is there, I get it.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

I totally get it.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. That will end it for him.

[Andy Holloway]

The other than that. So they right now the Bengals have pick 1041 and 7241 won't be price.

[Mike Wright]

He'll be gone already.

[Andy Holloway]

And just for this team, what they need on the defensive side of the football.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Would be.

[Jason Moore]

Which is 11 new guys.

[Mike Wright]

I think we had a pretty similar discussion about Chase Brown last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

That's the funny thing is we were like, oh, we were looking for the big name to ruin it, but they didn't waste the pick there and they were fine. So, you know, I think we tried for a lot of years to make Kyren not a thing like Kyron's going to the time and it just kept happening. I don't know if that'll be the case here. Number 11, Josh Jacobs, who I feel like, you know, he's got his own little CMC light story going to a degree where like you, you know, you had the down year in Las Vegas. You want to be out on him. He's not the new hotness, he's the old busted. But he just plain gets it done. This is clearly the key cog in the entire offense for Green Bay. They just traded away two wide receivers. Are you going to bank on Jaden Reed, who's always hurt? Matthew golden has never done it. And Christian Watson, who's always hurt. Are you going to bank on Josh Jacobs being the kind of centerpiece of this backfield once again?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, 15 touchdowns two years ago, 13 touchdowns last year. He is the their goal line machine. That's going to be pretty important for scoring fantasy points. I feel like I'm too low on.

[Mike Wright]

I do too I do, too. Mike's got him at 8. We both got him at 12. I don't like it.

[Andy Holloway]

I was pretty surprised. But this, this cluster of players, when you don't have your, like, actual stats for them, it's. It is difficult.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it is. It is. Because you. We've been around the block with Josh Jacobs. You'd love to find the narrative. This is where, like, it scares me the most. Hampton, Jacobs.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

That. That situation could be one of the most. Like, clearly you should just.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't want to play with you anymore.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you should just take Jacobs. That's the answer to that. But no one's going to do that first.

[Sponsor Voice]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

I'll take Hampton.

[Mike Wright]

Hampton's going to go ahead of Jacobs in every draft.

[Jason Moore]

What if. What if this year he could score 13 or 15 touchdowns, you know?

[Mike Wright]

Right, right, exactly. I mean, because we have them ranked this way. And then I was like, if. I was like, hey, you know, you got to draft one of these guys and you got to guarantee their fantasy production's higher than your life's on the line.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm taking Josh Jacobs.

[Mike Wright]

You're taking Jacobs?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

These are the. These are like the silly ones sometimes, so be careful. Jacobs is just a machine. The offense is good. I mean, I just mentioned, like, Matthew golden and two hurt wide receivers. Well, guess what his depth chart is. It's Marshawn Lloyd. Guys, Marshawn Lloyd looked at another guy pulling his hamstring and that pulled his hamstring.

[Jason Moore]

It was a mirror.

[Andy Holloway]

He's an empath, man.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's like the people that throw up. When someone else is throwing up, he pulls his hamstring if somebody else is pulling his hamstring.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep. You have. Emmanuel Wilson is a Seattle Seahawk.

[Jason Moore]

Let me check.

[Mike Wright]

Just.

[Andy Holloway]

They got to add somebody here. You. It would be surprising if Green Bay is like, okay, we'll go one more time into the year believing that Marshawn Lloyd's going to be the backup.

[Mike Wright]

And you got Marshall.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm sure they hope. They hope.

[Mike Wright]

He was.

[Andy Holloway]

He was what, a third round pick two years ago, and we've really not.

[Mike Wright]

Any minute now. Now the next two names, we'll lump them together. 12 and 13, Saquon and Henry.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, man.

[Mike Wright]

Saquon at 12 saw 300 plus opportunities. He's done that for four straight years. Saw 50 targets. Cool. The Eagles offensive line is elite, but they were missing, you know, a key piece of their line for the majority of the season. It was a down year big time for Saquon. He's now the RB8 in best ball. So we are. We are low on him as well. And that's another one. Hampton or Saquon? You look at that situation and you're.

[Andy Holloway]

You can at least. So you look at last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you can. It was. It was trouble. And A.J. brown, if he's out the door, do we figure out the offense? I don't know. It's still Saquon Barkley is my point. It's a hard name to pass on.

[Andy Holloway]

It is.

[Jason Moore]

I think having a down year, you know, he'll turn 30 this year. That's a little scary. You know, we talked ad nauseam coming off of his RB1 finish two years ago about the efficiency and what happens after that much work. He had a massive workload going deep into the playoffs and, you know, it was unsurprising. Now, was that all Lane Johnson? Was that, you know, missing Lane Johnson? And once he's back, it's all fixed and it's a great offense. They changed the offensive coordinator, which helped a couple years ago, so there's ways that it could get corrected. But I guess I don't expect the efficiency to get better as he gets older. It should get worse as he gets older. And so I, you know, I would like to have Saquon, but I don't think he's going to be, you know, a top three back.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The biggest counterpoint is the guy that we're talking about next who's 32 years old, who we.

[Jason Moore]

He's never slowed down.

[Mike Wright]

We. Okay, that might be fair. Derek Henry is still playing running back in the NFL. He's 32, 0.2 years old.

[Jason Moore]

I've been talking about him being old for five years.

[Andy Holloway]

He was the RB because he's been old for five years, the RB7.

[Mike Wright]

And listen to the fantasy. I mean, look at the fantasy finishes from week six on, right? That's when the old guys get better. Right. The later part of the year, well,

[Jason Moore]

that's when the weather gets colder, Andy.

[Mike Wright]

10, 8, 9, 23, 6, 5, 10, 23, 19. 8, 1, 11. So from week six on, just, I mean, guys, he was on pace for 1800 yards. He's not going to catch the football.

[Jason Moore]

2319. That was an issue.

[Mike Wright]

I mean. Wait, what?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know. I didn't hear.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you were going down through your list of all his rankings. 5, 10, 23, 19. 2319 is a big issue. It's a code code red. That's a. That's a human sock.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, this is a Monsters Inc. Wow. You got me. You just out cultured me, bro.

[Mike Wright]

Is that being out cultured?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Pop cultured. I 14, 14, 14, 14, 13.

[Mike Wright]

Derek Henry.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Who's going to do it? Who's got the stones? Who's got the stones to say this is the. That we're done?

[Mike Wright]

I don't think it's. I don't think it's over. I mean you could, you could say the aforementioned Harbaugh's gone. Maybe they mix it up a little bit committee wise.

[Andy Holloway]

They lost their center changing full.

[Mike Wright]

Oh yeah, that's a big deal.

[Andy Holloway]

They lost their fullback, Patrick Ricard.

[Mike Wright]

Let me ask you this. Are the Ravens going to be bad? Because that's possible.

[Jason Moore]

I don't possible.

[Mike Wright]

The Ravens aren't good. If the Ravens are good, Henry is good. We've seen this his whole career.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think the Ravens are good because they have Lamar Jackson. I mean if you've got a great quarterback, it's very difficult to have a great quarterback and be a bad football team. It can be done, but it's rare.

[Mike Wright]

So the bad year in Tennessee, the single bad year in Tennessee, he. Oh no. He played eight games. He probably would have been fine. He probably would have been fine.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

He's played 17 games three consecutive years. His body is a wonderland, a temple. It's spectacular. But they do have significant offensive line. The Ravens win fullback situations.

[Andy Holloway]

Ravens projected win total is eleven and a half.

[Mike Wright]

Don't they still need to pay Lamar?

[Andy Holloway]

That's coming up.

[Mike Wright]

I believe they still need to pay Lamar.

[Jason Moore]

The nice thing, I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

This feels like maybe they get that passing game going.

[Jason Moore]

The nice thing is he's not a new hot sexy name. So he'll be lower in the draft. You're talking about maybe having a value. I would guess he's near the back of the second right now.

[Mike Wright]

He is the back of the second RB12.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So if I can get him near the 2, 3 turn, I feel like he will out produce that last two

[Mike Wright]

names on the top 16.

[Andy Holloway]

Andy, real quick.

[Mike Wright]

It's what I'm going to say in a bit.

[Andy Holloway]

They he's got this year and next year under contract. Next year though, the cap for Lamar. For lamar skyrockets to 84 million.

[Mike Wright]

Like he's good. This is the negotiation window.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. I'm just saying like they can go through the entire year and not do anything.

[Mike Wright]

He won't be back if they do that.

[Andy Holloway]

But that would be. So yeah. Expect a new contract for Lamar relatively soon.

[Mike Wright]

Last two names, Travis HN Jr. Javante Williams to finish our top 15 early rankings. Achan is going to be the guy on a team that we are curious about in New Orleans.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Jason has him at 18.

[Mike Wright]

Mike has him at 13.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't. I've. I've always been the hater.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know. You love him. You're the highest.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Are you against. You don't like the name change?

[Jason Moore]

If I think Alvin Camara is going to be more involved than we think right now.

[Mike Wright]

So you do believe he'll be involved?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, that's the question.

[Jason Moore]

That is all of it. To me, the entirety of my low Travis ETN ranking is I think, oh, my gosh, Travis Hn, I would say

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to throw out a suggestion. Try going HN Jr.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I did. You noticed that because at least I was throwing the junior in there to get a new memory.

[Andy Holloway]

At least you'll know and then like

[Jason Moore]

we can Travis H. And Jr. Yeah. His 1. One of his best abilities, especially for fantasy, is catching the ball. But that is shared with Alvin Camara. And I think Camara will be involved in the passing game in a way that it hurts.

[Andy Holloway]

He was.

[Jason Moore]

No, he was not good. There's a reason the team went out for Camaro. The team went out and paid a ton of money for Travis H.N. jr. And so you would think that means he will be the guy. Usually, almost universally, when a contract of that size is given out to a running back, they inherit the vast majority, lion's share of the workload. And it seemed like when it happened that people were saying that Camara is not even going to play. Like he maybe retire, walk away, whatever. But then it came out that he's going to play. And I just don't think they're going to take this Saints legend and be like, ride the bench. You're not involved.

[Mike Wright]

Well, there is a middle ground too, of retirement and the expectation that he plays on the Saints. There have been a lot of trade rumors that have surfaced regarding Alvin Camara in recent days, including, and this one maybe you guys would be okay with. It's a lot better than Jeremiah Love going to your Giants. It's Alvin Camara going to the Giants to solidify that backfield. That's one of the big trade rumors that have come out recently. I don't think that you pick up Travis H.N. jr. With a plan to keep Camara. That's still my view. That's why I have him ranked higher than Jason, if you go into the season and Achan looks like he's going to be there with Kamara, I'm going to lower him in my rankings. I agree with all the principles of your ranking being if Camara is involved because you can't not use Camara in the receiving game.

[Andy Holloway]

The, the way out I would see for the Saints is you have what year two of coach Kellen Moore who all. All he knows as a coach was Camara not being very good. Like he, it's like, does he feel that I owe this player when we've. We just gave HN Jr. A truckload of cash. So I'm sure until that's like confirmed, I'm going to keep betting on HNJ to be. I think he's going to be solid.

[Mike Wright]

It's such a weird thing to spend that kind of money in free agency without a definitive plan for that situation. Like, do you think it was just a acquisition of opportunity?

[Andy Holloway]

I think so.

[Mike Wright]

Just like, oh, we can get this guy, so let's do it because he's

[Andy Holloway]

from the area I'm.

[Mike Wright]

And then we'll figure it out.

[Andy Holloway]

I would think it was, hey, yeah, you just. They got a phone call. I was like, no, you can actually get him if you offer him money.

[Jason Moore]

And they went, oh, and they know that Camara's not good, right? Camara's old. They have to have a replacement for him.

[Mike Wright]

Even if it's not this year, it could be more delayed.

[Andy Holloway]

Dennis Allen was like, don't you give Kendra Miller a chance?

[Mike Wright]

And they listen. Javante Williams, the final name, whatever surgeon last season they went out and they signed him to an extension. He was third in yards after contact per attempt. He is maybe the least sexy player you can draft and yet is so deserving of a pick and will contribute every week. I feel like he is such a locked in RB2 for fantasy where that's, you know, he's not going to carry your team but he's also not going to kill you ever.

[Jason Moore]

No. I mean he had 1200 yards, double digit touchdowns on the ground, over 300 opportunities. Even though he is the least efficient pass catching running back of our generation.

[Mike Wright]

He's just going to get 51 targets and turn that into 137 yards.

[Jason Moore]

Just terrible.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow.

[Mike Wright]

Less than three.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Less than four. That. I mean that's just awful. And really he's done this for a long time. He was doing the same with the Denver Broncos.

[Mike Wright]

That's the fewest yards for any player with 50 targets in the last 40 years.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what it seemed like. I mean, but they're going to continue

[Andy Holloway]

like Chuba Hubbard had to look at them and like that. That's, that's amazing because Chuba was 54 targets into 171 yards and that was bad.

[Mike Wright]

Well, this is, this is worse. Yeah, yeah. I mean, but we saw this incredible the year before and he doubled down. Look, he's just a tried and true solid running back. I mean, some of our other early rankings, just to throw the names out there, Bucky Irving came in at 18 in our consensus. Trayvon Henderson came in at 20, Scout at 21, Judkins at 22, the aforementioned Chuba down at 24. Technically, there is, Is there another couple players tied with this spot? I guess technically Kyron and Breeze hall are in that same conversation as well. So we will be going through our early wide receiver rankings on the Thursday episode of the show. So make sure you join us for that. You can follow us on Instagram. Instagram.com fantasy footballers and we got some stuff planned in the next few weeks before the draft gets started, man. What? I got to correct myself. It was nine days away. It's not ten. Okay, nine days away.

[Jason Moore]

Closer.

[Andy Holloway]

Nine days closer by the moment.

[Mike Wright]

And no, it should be fun. I'm excited. I want to see where Mendoza goes. I have no idea. All right, that'll do it. Jason, you can practice your Travis A. Chan Jr. In the mirror.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm gonna need, if you can

[Mike Wright]

get that going to do that a lot. Maybe he'll come out and say, never mind.

[Jason Moore]

I hope so.

[Mike Wright]

See ya.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.

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[Jason Moore]

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