Explain Yourself! + Rankings Debates - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/3

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - "Explain Yourself! + Rankings Debates" (Released June 3, 2025)

In this engaging episode of The Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into fantasy football strategies, NFL news updates, and heated rankings debates. The episode titled "Explain Yourself! + Rankings Debates" offers a blend of insightful analysis, camaraderie, and spirited discussions aimed at helping fantasy managers gain a competitive edge for the upcoming season.

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1. Introduction and Draft Strategy Insights

The episode kicks off with light-hearted banter among the hosts, setting a relaxed tone. The trio discusses the importance of preparation in fantasy drafts to avoid making impulsive decisions that could lead to regret.

• Mike Wright [02:12]: "Don't let one bad pick become four bad picks."

• Andy Holloway [06:08]: "You can't just have one [backup player]. If you had three picks away and now you're down to two, you need to figure out who that second player is before you're on the clock."

Key Takeaways:

• Preparation is Crucial: Being well-prepared with multiple player options can mitigate the impact of unexpected draft outcomes.
• Stay Calm Under Pressure: Avoiding panic and staying aligned with your draft plan ensures consistency and reduces the risk of cumulative poor picks.

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2. NFL News Highlights

The hosts provide updates on several NFL players, focusing on injuries, contract negotiations, and potential trades that could impact fantasy rosters.

• Johnny Smith’s Contract Saga [08:11]:

  • Johnny Smith seeks a new contract with Miami, aiming for $4.8 million.
  • Mike Wright [09:05]: "Mr. Arthur Smith has an addiction to Johnny Smith."

• Kyle Pitts’ Availability [09:56]:

  • Reports indicate Kyle Pitts isn't practicing due to an injury, raising trade rumors.
  • Mike Wright [10:17]: "The best thing for Kyle Pitts would be a change of scenery."

• Jalen Waddle’s Performance Concerns [49:06]:

  • Discussions revolve around Waddle’s inconsistent performances and declining target share.

Key Takeaways:

• Monitor Player Movements: Staying updated on player statuses and team dynamics is essential for adjusting fantasy strategies.
• Injury Implications: Injuries and contract disputes can significantly affect player availability and performance, influencing their fantasy value.

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3. Rankings Debates: Quarterbacks

A spirited debate ensues over the rankings of quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow, with differing opinions on their fantasy potential.

• Baker Mayfield’s Value [25:27]:

  • Jason Moore: "Baker Mayfield... how all the arguments that you would make against Baker Mayfield, most of them apply to Joe Burrow, except for the fact that Baker runs for more yards."

• Joe Burrow’s Consistency [34:00]:

  • Andy Holloway: "Joe Burrows mean is much higher."

• Baker Mayfield vs. Joe Burrow [26:15]:

  • Mike Wright: "I've got him for 30 [touchdowns]."

Key Takeaways:

• Performance Metrics: Evaluating recent performance and consistency is vital in determining a quarterback’s fantasy worth.
• Running Ability vs. Passing Efficiency: Baker Mayfield’s rushing yards may offset some of his passing inconsistencies, whereas Joe Burrow maintains a higher touchdown rate but with different durability concerns.

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4. Rankings Debates: Wide Receivers

The discussion shifts to wide receivers, focusing on Lad McConkey and Jalen Waddle, examining their past performances and future potential.

a. Lad McConkey’s Potential

• Andy Holloway [38:10]: "Lad McConkey is so doggone good. If his body can keep up, he could lead the league in receptions and yardage."

• Jason Moore [44:59]: "Best bets in fantasy football rookies who break out and finish as a top 24 wide receiver their first year."

Key Takeaways:

• Team Identity’s Impact: The Ravens’ emphasis on a strong running game may limit McConkey’s target share.
• Upside vs. ADP: While McConkey shows high potential, his average draft position (ADP) may not yet reflect his ceiling, presenting potential value.

b. Jalen Waddle’s Inconsistencies

• Jason Moore [47:08]: "Dropping Jalen Waddle to the 40s is just a little too extreme for me."

• Mike Wright [50:15]: "His targets and receptions have gone down for three straight years."

• Andy Holloway [52:20]: "The majority of his games are just disappearing actually."

Key Takeaways:

• Performance Variability: Waddle has demonstrated flashes of brilliance but suffers from inconsistent game-to-game performances.
• Fantasy Implications: Managers need to weigh his high-ceiling potential against the risk of stagnation in his performance metrics.

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5. Final Thoughts and Season Outlook

As the episode draws to a close, the hosts emphasize the importance of adaptability throughout the fantasy season, highlighting that success is a season-long endeavor involving drafts, trades, and weekly management.

• Andy Holloway [07:08]: "You don't win your championship at the draft. You only set a foundation. It's a season-long game."

Key Takeaways:

• Continuous Evaluation: Regularly assessing team performance and making strategic moves is crucial for championship contention.
• Flexibility in Strategy: Being open to adjusting rankings and leveraging in-season opportunities can significantly enhance a fantasy team’s prospects.

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Notable Moments and Quotes

• On Avoiding Draft Regret:
  Mike Wright [02:12]: "Don't let one bad pick become four bad picks."

• On Baker Mayfield's Projection:
  Jason Moore [25:27]: "I've got him ranked real high. So you explain yourself."

• On Jalen Waddle’s Future:
  Jason Moore [50:13]: "Dropping him to the 40s is just a little too extreme for me."

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Conclusion

This episode of The Fantasy Footballers Podcast provides a comprehensive analysis of key fantasy football topics, from draft strategies to player rankings and NFL news. The hosts offer diverse perspectives, encouraging listeners to think critically about their fantasy decisions and stay informed on the latest developments. Whether you're a seasoned manager or new to fantasy football, the insights shared in this episode aim to enhance your understanding and performance in your league.

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Connect with The Fantasy Footballers:

• Website: [ultimate draft kit](https://ultimate draft kit.com)
• Community: jointhefoot.com
• Twitter: @FFballers

Transcript

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[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

You went for it. Good for you.

[Andy Holloway]

And not only.

[Mike Wright]

I thought I was totally fine. Hold on, let me do it again.

[Jason Moore]

Well, if you thought it was fine.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Then you weren't listening.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was gonna leave it.

[Andy Holloway]

I was proud of you because it was so bad at the beginning.

[Mike Wright]

Here's.

[Andy Holloway]

But you pushed through.

[Mike Wright]

Here's the problem. I will explain this. Before the show began, you were in the bathroom.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And once upon a time, we started the show with you in the bathroom.

[Andy Holloway]

I remember that.

[Mike Wright]

And so Al Borland has the genius idea. He goes, just do a welcome in while he's in the bathroom. We'll scare him again. And I do it.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh.

[Mike Wright]

And it worked and it sounded fine. So I went in with less hesitation.

[Andy Holloway]

No fear, no fear.

[Mike Wright]

And I should have had so much fear.

[Andy Holloway]

Should have had more fear.

[Jason Moore]

You only have one per day. You wasted.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you're right.

[Jason Moore]

Wasted it on a bit.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, I wasted it on a bit. But here we are. And I know that's not going to get redone, so. Tuesday, June 3rd, the fantasy footballers Podcast. Andy Holloway, Mike Wright, Jason Moore, back with you. It's exciting. It's going to be a fun day. We've got some explain yourself rankings debates on the show today. Because the UDK is live, all of our rankings are live. The ultimate draft kit. And so there are three players today that we have kind of a big difference in our rankings, you know, one individually much different than the other two. So we'll go through Some. Explain yourself. We got a lot of NFL news to catch you up on. Good. Quick question. And some mailbag if we have time. But yes, the UDK it is alive. Ultimate DraftKit.com toilet season got an upgrade. Yes. That's one of our bigger marketing.

[Jason Moore]

You know, phrases like, when you're my age, you know, I'll get on the app store. I'm like, I gotta find a game for the bathroom. Yeah. And I'm like, no, none of it needs. This doesn't work for me anymore. I need games.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

The mobile games.

[Mike Wright]

It's like, you're not into that.

[Jason Moore]

I just.

[Mike Wright]

I can't candy crush while you're crushing it on the toilet.

[Jason Moore]

No, no. My own personal candy crush.

[Andy Holloway]

Candy crush that toilet.

[Jason Moore]

Like, no. I don't know why I can't get into any of them.

[Mike Wright]

Does this disappoint you? Are you. You're just not like a fun guy anymore?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I. Look, you know, how dare you.

[Mike Wright]

Hold on. I think I know what people do in your situation.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Sudoku. I think that's what they move on. I think they move on to some.

[Andy Holloway]

Sudoku old person game.

[Jason Moore]

I can 100% get down on some Sudoku. That's a good game.

[Mike Wright]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a good. We're there, we're there.

[Jason Moore]

There's a jigsaw puzzles is rapidly approaching.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it is.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, no.

[Mike Wright]

And bird watching.

[Jason Moore]

Well, that's already here because. Because that's awesome.

[Mike Wright]

You're already into bird watching. Okay, good. You'll be collecting plants soon, taking care of gardens. I don't know what else old people do, but we're going to. We're about to find out. Quick question of the day from Brandon writing in on X. Have you ever made a draft pick and then immediately regretted it? Last year in a live Super Flex draft, I took a second quarterback and immediately regretted it as I left A.J. brown out there on the board.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

So, first of all, have you ever done that? Second of all, like, how do you avoid panic and tilt when you feel instant regret during the draft?

[Andy Holloway]

I think we've. We've all.

[Jason Moore]

I'm sure I have.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I don't have, like, a memory of, oh, my gosh. I left this player and I took that player. I think what has happened before, and maybe this is more in mock drafts or in, you know, drafts that I'm not specifically prepared for. This draft is when you grab the same team.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what I mean?

[Jason Moore]

I remember doing that now with Alfred Morris back when he was Having his run with Washington. And I was probably like Terry, just.

[Mike Wright]

Just having players because in fantasy they're so isolated on our cheat sheets and stuff. Sometimes it's individual breakdowns that you, you're not putting the pieces together on the teams in the moment. Because of tilt.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, no, it happens. And after that. You're reminding me now, Jay. After I took two people from Washington. Oh, this, this can't be good.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, how you avoid that. It's really just preparation. Like the more you're prepared beforehand, you're listening to this show, you're, you know, if you got the UDK when you go into your draft prepared, it's, it's very rare that you're going to make a pick and immediately regret it. I would say the times that it happens, and we've said this before, like you always have to have. When you're one pick away, you have to have two players.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You can't just have one. If you had three, three picks away and now you're down to two, and now you're down to one. Before you're on the clock, figure out who that second player is that you want. Because when you've only got one guy left you want and that guy goes right before you, it's, Your brain goes toast. Your brain's just gone.

[Mike Wright]

Don't let one bad pick become four bad picks.

[Andy Holloway]

Right?

[Mike Wright]

Right. Like if you, if you go into a draft with a plan, you might make a mistake, you might take a pick and then you see somebody else on the board or you realize, like Mike was saying, you drafted two guys on the same team. Like, don't let that compound itself into missing on four or five picks in a row. Because you go on with the plan, you mess one up, go back to the plane, you know, draft the rest of the pieces of a good team. Figure it out from there. You set the foundation of your team at the draft, but you're not, you know, nobody's taking that drafted team and going all the way without tons of great moves throughout the way. Free agency, waiver, wire trades, all of the above. That's why our show doesn't stop in like the end of August.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Like you don't win your championship at the draft. You only set a foundation. It's, it's a season long game, dude.

[Jason Moore]

Alfred Morris appeared in nine seasons.

[Mike Wright]

We were busy talking, Jay. And this deep dive in Alfred Morris.

[Jason Moore]

I had moved on, man.

[Andy Holloway]

You'd move back. Sure.

[Mike Wright]

Albert Morris is most famous to me for driving the same beater car even when he got a paycheck.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, it was awesome. The beginning of the. Of his career, you know, three straight thousand yards. It was rookie season.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

RG 3, 16, 13 touchdowns on the ground as an undrafted or. Oh, he. I'm saying he was around six. I'm undrafted in fantasy. Oh, right, right. Like no one. We weren't drafting Alfred Morris. It was right before that season happened. All of a sudden whispers started to come out. That's true. And then he was.

[Mike Wright]

And he was a six round pick.

[Jason Moore]

In the NFL draft. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, that's in nine years.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man. Good for you. Alfred Morris.

[Mike Wright]

Pretty. Pretty legendary season. Thank you for that, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

You're welcome.

[Mike Wright]

All right, let's talk some news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Mike Wright]

Ah, welcome to the news.

[Jason Moore]

That was much better.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Yeah. He got some regrets. Ricky Pierce saw hamstring injury. Likely won't return to practice until training camp. Says Kyle Shanahan. You know, off season injuries right now. Yeah. I mean, there was a corollary report just about Juwan Jennings being targeted all over the field.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

He's all that's left.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Johnny Smith conveys he wants a new contract with Miami. He is due 4.8 million and his agent and his bank account would like to cash in on a career year. Miami's been seeking a trade partner instead of agreeing to the request for a new contract.

[Andy Holloway]

It's not a great sign.

[Mike Wright]

Steelers have expressed interest. Mr. Arthur Smith has an addiction.

[Andy Holloway]

To Johnny Smith.

[Mike Wright]

To Johnny Smith. So we'll see where he ends up. It's tough. We just did player profile videos for Johnny Smith in the udk and right now we're moving forward, projecting him on Miami because.

[Andy Holloway]

Because he's on Miami.

[Mike Wright]

Because he's on Miami.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Somebody asked why we didn't have an Amari Cooper player profile. It's because he's on nobody's team.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man. Ain't nobody want Marty Cooper right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. John who is going to be quite an important piece because I think that Johnny Smith as a Dolphin is actually a really important fantasy tight end relative to the position he's not, you know, in that. In that upper tier. But then if he leaves, I mean, he was. The amount of targets and receptions he had, especially once TUA came back. That is probably really good news for the Tyreek Truthers and the Jalen Waddle Truthers if John who is not on the roster. So we're on John who Watch now.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Maybe some foreshadowing for a segment later today. Talking some Dolphins. But we also have some Kyle Pitts news. Many teams reaching out to the Falcons about the availability of Kyle Pitts says.

[Andy Holloway]

Kyle Pitts's agent probably.

[Mike Wright]

Nope. Jordan Schultz, Fox News. But Kyle Pitts is not practicing right now. He's not at OTAs, dealing with an injury. Wink, wink.

[Jason Moore]

Oh my goodness.

[Mike Wright]

The best thing for Kyle Pitts would be a change of scenery, which might not be the best. It might not be a good thing at all. But I, to me, that's the best. Because if somebody goes out and tries to acquire him, there's two things that are going to be true. One, they have a plan for him. Two, they have a plan for his contract. Like you're going into your final year. If both of those things, you know he's still very young, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean it's him or RJ Harvey.

[Andy Holloway]

I think they're months apart.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So you're, you're talking about a reclamation of potential that another team might, that we would talk ourselves into believing.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know, man.

[Jason Moore]

I think we need to hold the line here.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. On all that, he just seems so disinterested on the field, you know.

[Mike Wright]

But you've sent me two trade, two or three trade offers for Kyle Pitts and our dynasty League because there's part of you that's like trying to buy the. Buy the lowest you could buy.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely.

[Mike Wright]

Because there's some small part of you that believes.

[Andy Holloway]

Because he's 24 years old.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. You know, that's it.

[Andy Holloway]

He's 24 years old. You know, he had a thousand yard rookie season. He showed flashes. But then, you know, when I went to make those trade offers from you, Andy, I started with a second round pick and then I looked at Kyle Pitts again.

[Jason Moore]

Did you send it?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I had it. I was like, that's what I'm going to, I'm going to offer a second. And it was, it was more than.

[Mike Wright]

Just you should see what I would do.

[Andy Holloway]

But I'm just saying like if you send it. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And then I'm like, whoa, run an experiment.

[Andy Holloway]

I forgot that he's played four full I dare you seasons.

[Jason Moore]

I feel like that's an auto accept from Andy.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, for sure it would be. I'm not offering a second.

[Mike Wright]

Let me tell you. Maybe this will entice you.

[Andy Holloway]

It will not come.

[Mike Wright]

Year one, one touchdown. Year two, two touchdowns. Year three, three touchdowns. Year four, four touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh my gosh.

[Mike Wright]

Year five, five touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Whoa.

[Mike Wright]

So in about six years we're going to be talking top tier tight End. Yeah. So we don't know. I mean, Kyle Pitts right now, not practicing, not traded and not under contract after this season. CJ Stroud, dealing with a minor shoulder muscle issue. No concerns from their offensive coordinator about him not throwing. And then Joe Mixon, lower body. Lower body injury, did not participate in Friday's OTAs. It was reported that he had a minor workout injury. Nothing serious is the quote.

[Andy Holloway]

Believe he was in a walking boot.

[Mike Wright]

Should have been a running boot.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, my minor injuries that I put on a walking boot.

[Mike Wright]

Well, they said he'll be ready for training camp. We'll follow along.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

It is one of the concerns of any of the aging backs suspicious. So we had a report for all of the madness going around. Stefan Diggs, one of the, you know, radio pundits talked about the fact that cutting him is on the table. He just signed a three year, $69 million contract and then he showed up at OTAs and he. We're in a world.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he was there and then he was gone.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And then this. Then the video came out, the boat video, and now he's back.

[Mike Wright]

There's. Here's the confusion around Diggs. There were a lot of. There were like people in the know in New England talking about wishful thinking is him being back on the field by Week 4 of the NFL season. Now, prior to that report, this show, the three of us identified Diggs as a value for the udk he would have been in are UDK values.

[Andy Holloway]

He was. We removed him before the release of the ultimate draft.

[Mike Wright]

Wrote the blurb up and everything, looked at him based on where he's being drafted, Drake May's potential, the contract as a value. Then this news report comes out and it says, oh, you know, he might not be available to week four. We're not going to recommend a player that you shouldn't draft.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Must be really behind in his recovery. Or not even behind. It's just, you know, the timeline for him.

[Jason Moore]

If he's not ahead of the timeline, then Jason, he is in fact behind.

[Mike Wright]

And then the video comes out and he's without a brace today and he's running around with Keisha Boute and he looks totally spry and fine. And it's June 2nd, we don't have football till September. And this guy looks very, very healthy.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not a doctor. I was saying this, I was saying this before the show that I don't understand. Like, I still think that he might go on the pup and miss the first four weeks. Like the B Reporters are saying because that's being reported. But I don't get how that's humanly possible. He's running full routes, no brace. He looks fine. I know that's. You know, that's a far cry from necessarily being in NFL shape. But it's like. But we're. But the season doesn't start tomorrow or next week or next month. You've got months from now before. Like I watch that video and I don't know how. He is not ready for week one.

[Mike Wright]

One is unfortunately. One of the ways he's not ready for week one is if he wasn't on the team. And there's some consequence of these boat related. Boat related suspensions.

[Andy Holloway]

Think it's less about the boat there, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

It's not the first boat related conversation in the off season. Zeke in a boat.

[Jason Moore]

Stay away from both Giants. Look, there's. You would very dangerous bad things happen on a boat.

[Andy Holloway]

You remember Tom Brady getting off the boat?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, man. That was a weekend in Bernie's.

[Mike Wright]

That dude was after celebrating his.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he had celebrated.

[Andy Holloway]

He had really celebrated.

[Jason Moore]

Got after it.

[Mike Wright]

Boats are. Yeah. Where it's at. Joe Flacco right now being reported by the athletic sack Jackson favorite to win the job.

[Andy Holloway]

What? It's going all over the place.

[Jason Moore]

Hold on.

[Mike Wright]

So it's a full.

[Jason Moore]

This is news to me.

[Mike Wright]

Well, this is full circle. The off season began and I was completely convinced that Joe Flacco would be.

[Jason Moore]

As was I. I held off for so long on my projected stats.

[Mike Wright]

Then they draft Dylan Gabriel and Shador.

[Jason Moore]

Sanders and trade for Kenny Pickett.

[Mike Wright]

And they traded for Kenny Pickett. And now the way it's being traded for Kenny Pickett. Yeah, the way it's being discussed is there's two battles right now. There's the battle for the starter job, Flacco and Pickett, and there's a battle for the top rookie. Now, if Flacco doesn't win the starter's job, I don't know if he's in Cleveland. That's how I'm looking at this.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Is that I don't.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think they'll probably ask for a release.

[Mike Wright]

They're not going to keep four quarterbacks on this roster. So to me, it's like if Flacco and I think both rookies are staying.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So it seems like one of those two Pickett or Flacco would be gone. It's still up in the air now. Flacco, if he won the job. I'm already on the side of like I'm a little bit more pro.

[Jason Moore]

Judy.

[Mike Wright]

A little bit more excited about Najoku. I assume Flacco being in that starter.

[Jason Moore]

Changes mind your outlook of the Cleveland.

[Mike Wright]

Is it because he's a professional quarterback?

[Jason Moore]

It's because he is. And it's because even though like the, the days, you know the couple year ago run that Joe Flacco had on the Browns. I don't. I think we're probably that's gone. But Joe Flacco could throw for 4,000 yards. Can. Can he Pickett throw for 4,000 yards? I doubt it.

[Mike Wright]

Can Kenny Pickett throw across a couple of seasons? Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Kenny Pickett like what. What's Kenny Pickett's high for touchdowns? Doesn't he get one of the lowest. Let's guess.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's guess.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to guess 17. I think he's high.

[Jason Moore]

I think you're too high.

[Mike Wright]

15. 15 is.

[Jason Moore]

I'll go with you guys. Guess I'm pulling it up.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to say 18. That does feel high.

[Jason Moore]

You guys are so off.

[Andy Holloway]

Was it like nine?

[Jason Moore]

Andy, you need to take 10 off of your five. Seven touchdowns. That's his career high as a rookie. And 12 starts, seven touchdowns. He followed it up in 11 starts.

[Mike Wright]

With lowest touchdown rate of all time through 25 starts.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I'm saying. This has been a problem for me when I'm trying to evaluate the Cleveland.

[Mike Wright]

Browns is this is why you can't pick Kenny Pickett.

[Jason Moore]

You can't.

[Mike Wright]

If you're the, if you're the Browns. You can't pick him as one of these options.

[Jason Moore]

Oh my gosh.

[Mike Wright]

Unless you want.

[Jason Moore]

Did you.

[Mike Wright]

Did we say the part to have the first pick.

[Jason Moore]

So the report that came out from the athletic that was mentioning they think Joe Flacker is the favorite. It did say it's not going to be one of the rookies at least.

[Andy Holloway]

As a starter for sure.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I mean is there's two battles. There's the, the best of the rookie.

[Jason Moore]

Backups making sure that was communicated and.

[Mike Wright]

Then there's the starting job and we all know that all these guys are going to play because this is going to be a terrible year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. We will see all. We'll see all three that are on the roster.

[Mike Wright]

That's how I feel.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

This is huge news. Probably should have led with this. The Lions all pro center Frank Ragnow announced his retirement. He wasn't only 29 years old. Four time Pro Bowler was the number one blocking center in the game last year.

[Andy Holloway]

He, I think he's a top three or now was a top three center in the NFL. He missed very few games since they drafted him in 2018. He's an enormous part of. You look at the strength of this offense. The Lions are a great office. The literal number one scoring offense last year. And the strength, it's not Jared Goff, it's not Amon Ra, it's not even Jameer Gibbs. It's their offensive line. The offensive line is what makes everything else work. It's what lets David Montgomery and Jamal Williams score 15 touchdowns a season. This is a brutal loss. Now they did spend a second round draft pick on a rookie guard who right now in camp has been playing this the snaps at center. I mean we saw last year, we saw the Eagles lose an all world hall of Fame center and they were fine. They had, they had a plan in place. That being said, I feel like they knew that, you know, Kelsey every year was like, are we going to have Kelsey back? They kind of had a plan in place. I'm not sure that the Lions had enough time to know exactly what they think.

[Jason Moore]

They had an inkling at least because they took him in the second round.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he, but he wasn't a center. He was a guard in Georgia. Yeah, he's a three year starter there. But they did bring him in because he's versatile and he could play center and they brought him in at rookie campus, the center. So I think that's when the inkling began. We thought this was contract related. 29 year old, all pro, a teen that's on the rise.

[Jason Moore]

Did you guys read his little message?

[Mike Wright]

I did, I read it seemed like it was health.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, 100%. And it was just, it felt, it felt kind of sad for him to be at the age he's at and he's like, I thought I had more football. He's like, but I don't. I'm hurting. My body is. You're like, oh man.

[Mike Wright]

Your body's not forgiving.

[Jason Moore]

Wait till that age.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait till you're 40, man.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I got bad news for you.

[Mike Wright]

Jason's worst sinner in years.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I used to be a sinner.

[Mike Wright]

So there you go. I mean that's significant. It will be a change. They do have, you know, still a foundational pieces around him for sure. You know, Routledge stepping in. But you know, there's just a lot that a top tier center does well.

[Andy Holloway]

And you mentioned Philly.

[Mike Wright]

They went out and won a Super bowl when they lost.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I don't know. I'M not going to overreact to this. I think the Lions are going to be a good offense, but I do look at the specific piece, the center being gone and how that affects Jared Goff. Jared Goff is not one of those guys that likes to, you know, make things on his own. You know, he's a, he's an in system, awesome player when everything is working.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And so like Jameson Williams, he's a guy I know. Andy, you're, you're pretty bullish on.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the one player that I think almost gets hurt the most, probably David Montgomery, followed by Jameson Williams. Because you want the plays to develop that downfield passing they've talked about with Martin coming in, that they want to push the ball down the field more. Well, you got to protect Jared Goff. So it's just a little worry on the back. You know, the hair stands up a little.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. It'll be interesting if it affects the running game more and if that leads to golf having to throw the ball more. And I don't know, right now it's just fresh, brand new news. But a big, a big loss, no doubt. We'll take a break. We'll jump into some rankings. Explain yourself.

[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

What's going on Foot Clan Springtime is here and baseball season is officially underway. You know that. There's a reason myself, Andy Holloway is the only one talking about baseball season. Look, I appreciate the game. I love the game. Been a fan my whole life. Do not miss your chance to add your favorite players from the diamond into your prize picks lineups. The Prize Picks app. Absolutely great. Easy to use, very fun. And baseball season is going. So for me personally, maybe I'm going in there and I'm making some. I'm taking some shots on Corbin Burns of the Diamondbacks to deliver on a very promising and surprising signing this off season. I'm making them Diamondback picks every night when they play. That's the great thing about baseball is there's games going on every single night. So you can go make your picks in less than 60 seconds and turn your sports takes into real money all season long. On prize picks, you can sign up today. You get $50 instantly when you play $5. You don't even need to win to receive that $50 bonus. It's absolutely guaranteed. So download the app today and use the code footballers to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup. Again, download the app today and use the code footballers to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup. Prize picks.

[Andy Holloway]

Quite well, thank you.

[Mike Wright]

No, clearly you are not. No rational person would do as you have done. Explain yourself. I think I'm rational, Mike. Sometimes I thought I was a rational person.

[Jason Moore]

No, we all, we all think that. We all think we're rational when we're putting in our projections. And then the captain of this show, Andrew Holloway, decided he's going to put Baker Mayfield at quarterback six. We're talking about Baker Mayfield Lazer. I'm sorry. No, no. For this argument. I can't call him that, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

When I call a guy his cool nickname, it does not help me.

[Mike Wright]

He's trying to set up the negative.

[Andy Holloway]

Back in the kitchen. You're a Baker.

[Jason Moore]

So a player who had never surpassed 28 passing touchdowns, jumps all the way to 41, jumps 500 passing yards, even though he played every game two years ago for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And Andy's like, oh, pocket passing. Baker Mayfield. I got him ranked real high. So you explain yourself.

[Mike Wright]

This one's so fun to me. It's a good discussion. Like Baker, by the way, I didn't place him at 6. To be clear, the Way we do rankings here at the Fantasy Footballers Stats.

[Jason Moore]

The stats chose me.

[Mike Wright]

Stats are the stats. And in fact, you know, when you look at kind of how the three of us project Baker, we're not too far off. No, I do have him at 6. He ended up at 6. I think that the discussion that I want to have is one that I feel like one player is being omitted from. We have a repeated refrain on the show about the pocket passer touchdown variability. But there's one quarterback, not Baker, there's one other quarterback that seems to get a pass on this. And it's true in drafts. And so to me, Baker is Discount Burrow. And that's the situation, that's the discussion I want to have. Because Burrow is a 4th round draft pick right now, which means that if you're sitting in the fourth round and you're saying, I've got to have Joe Burrow, right? I've got to have that guy instead of somebody like Baker in the sixth round, that means I'm not getting George Kittle in the fourth round, right? I'm not getting Joe Mixon in the fourth round. I'm not getting Rashi Rice, I'm not getting Alvin Camara. These are. This is who I'm going to pass on to get Joe Burrow, who, to me, I just don't understand really functionally how all the arguments that you would make against Baker Mayfield, most of them apply to Joe Burrow, except for the fact that Baker runs for more yards, which is a. It's a bit of an equalizer for the variability at touchdown in the touchdown numbers. Now, I didn't go out and Project Baker for 41 touchdowns. I projected him for 30. But he ran for 378 yards last year. If you look at the last two years in the NFL, Baker Mayfield is number one in the league in passing touchdowns. Over the last two years, he's the number one most effective passing quarterback. And one of the things that really rubs me the wrong way is any argument around Baker Mayfield that is historically based on previous seasons with different organizations in the past and touchdown rates in the past. Those are misleading, in my opinion, and a huge mistake for fantasy players.

[Andy Holloway]

I disagree.

[Mike Wright]

I. That's why I'm explaining myself. I think that's just really fundamentally not valuable to our analysis of Baker Mayfield, because this was not. This was a guy almost ran out of the league that was part of, you know, the Cleveland organization. That was dysfunctional. He struggled there, had his one game in Los Angeles.

[Jason Moore]

Thank goodness they got him out In Watson Inn, right?

[Mike Wright]

In Cleveland.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, my gosh. Yeah. I mean, but, but those, those years, those years are so incomparable on so many levels. I mean, from the touchdown percentage to just his consistency, his completion percentage in Cleveland, he had years of 59%, 60%. You know, he's better than Burrow. He was at 71%, Burrows at 70% last year. Oh, what else? Oh, yeah, he's an A in consistency. So his last rolling 17, you can throw the injuries in for burrow. His rolling 17, 64% of the time he's in our, you know, our metric for consistency at the quarterback position, burrows at 52%. So you got to give, you got to give Baker his due, his credit. And the fact that 40 plus touchdowns is now in the arsenal is now in the range of outcomes for him. Like we've talked about Jamar Chase, that's probably Jamar Chase's peak season. Like, you just went out and you just set the triple crown for Jamar Chase is not every season.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

And you took Baker Mayfield and you gave him another rookie weapon. He's got two elite pass catching running backs, you got four elite pass catching wide receivers, and you've got an elite pass catching tight end. And you have the same foundation to the offense. Like from a repayment, repeatability standpoint. This is why I was on Team Baker last year. Because last year was a call for regression for Team Baker. And you want to know what the basis of that was? His historical touchdown percentage and everything he's ever done on these other team. He wasn't the same player. He wasn't the same player at all. So I think that, I think the floor is 30 touchdowns on this roster. It's a great team. Jason's constantly talking about Bucky Irving breaking down and not being able to be like, you can't build the offense around Bucky Irving exclusively. It's a Baker offense. Mike Evans is a, I mean, an elite wide receiver still. Chris Godwin, you brought him up last week. He was the number one fantasy producer. During his active weeks. He was the number one fantasy wide receiver. And then you've got McMillan and you have Igbuka and you have Otten and you have these other guys. I just feel like the case. Oh, and by the way, you have slightly, a bit of an offensive line. Like he took fewer sacks than Joe Burrow. Did they both fumble the same amount of times? He threw more picks. And again, I'm not saying he is Joe Burrow. I'm just saying the arguments that are being made against Baker are not made against Burrow. And I don't think that's fair because Burrow is a pocket passer that's going to run for 200 or fewer yards and Baker's going to go for three to 400.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I disagree with that. Of. And we'll start off, we all like Baker. Yeah, I think that he is a good pick. Like, he's okay if you want to take the discount. Baker, like Joe Burrow was at 200 rushing yards, which he's done two times in his career.

[Andy Holloway]

Baker.

[Jason Moore]

Baker ran two fewer times last year than he did two years ago and put up over 200 more rushing yards. I think that was more of a just a fluky thing for Baker. So I'm not necessarily in on the rushing, but I'm in on that he can. He can throw in the 30s.

[Mike Wright]

It's an ADP argument to me too. Right. 21.9 fancy points were getting for Burrow last year, 21.5 for Baker last year. And I get to draft players in the fourth round like Marvin Harrison and combine them with Baker. If that was my. Like, I'm probably not taking those guys, either of them. I'm probably just going to wait a little bit longer. But I'd rather have two rounds of value because the guys I'm getting in the fourth round at other positions are better.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I understand everything you're saying. When I said I disagree with the historical touchdown, I think that is probably the most important thing to look at with a pocket passers. What is their historical touchdown rate with Joe Burrow, you know, since his rookie season, he's at 5.9% over the last four years. This is not, you know, was last year higher than it will be this year? Sure, probably. But he is always someone that is throwing a ton of touchdowns. Always. Year after year after year after year.

[Jason Moore]

Three fully healthy years for Joe Burrow. Yeah, he's the lowest. He's been at 34 passing touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And so whereas on the Baker side, when I say I disagree, what I disagreed with was specifically that. Look, let's just look at the last year in Tampa Bay, he was at 4.9% touchdowns. That's really good. That's above league average. That's solid. And that was with that same team.

[Mike Wright]

His average in Tampa Bay, 6.1.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that's because you're including last year 7 point.

[Mike Wright]

Completely fair to include to get an average. Yeah, that's how you get an average in Tampa Bay.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

You don't just Count the bad year and not the good year. No, the average is 6.1.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm talking about league averages. 4.5. And we see. All the time. We see this every single year. We're going to see it this coming year with Lamar Jackson, whoever has that crazy high, like 7 1/2 or higher percent touchdown percentage. It always regresses. It doesn't matter if it's, you know, if it's Peyton Manning or, you know, anyone. They always. Aaron Rodgers would.

[Mike Wright]

So Joe Burrows is going to regress, is what you're saying? Because it doesn't matter.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, Joe Burrows is going to regress. They're both going to regress. That's where I look at. Okay, well, then what. What are they regressing to? What is their mean? And so Joe Burrows mean is much higher.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Joe, if you do your strategy and throw out the most recent year, his mean is 5.1.

[Andy Holloway]

So, Joe, Joe, you're saying over the.

[Mike Wright]

Last three years, and Baker was 4.8 in Cleveland, so it's just not that different.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

And you don't pay as much, so. I do. I don't. I just feel like we are really enamored with Joe Burrow. And so you're paying. If Joe Burrow doesn't deliver that season in that round, which he definitely couldn't. It definitely could go the other way.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you worry about Joe Burrow this year? Like, are you. Are you willing to draft him where he's going in drafts?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, then.

[Mike Wright]

No, I'm not.

[Andy Holloway]

That feels intellectually honest.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. No, I don't think I am because I don't think. I don't think you're going up. I don't think any of us would think he's going up.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Mike Wright]

So, you know his career highs, 34 and 35 touchdowns. So, like. And then two injured years. So the injury, like the durability factor doesn't even get. I didn't even talk about it. Like, Baker is resilient and never gets hurt and takes a ton of sacks and never gets hurt. Joe Burrows missed two seasons.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So it's just. It's one. It's a conversation I think is interesting. And again, it's more about that conversation between those two than it is about any disparity, me and you. Like, we have.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we're not that far.

[Mike Wright]

We're not that far off. I mean, we're. I think I have them for more passing yardage than both of you guys because I'm giving, like, I love the structure of the offense. This Was they had a top five quarterback, top 15 running back, another top 24 running back, a top 12 wide receiver in Evans and Godwin was the wide receiver two. I said one before number two in fantasy before injury, and then a top 12 tight end.

[Jason Moore]

I bet for us, I bet it's just rushing.

[Mike Wright]

That was the only team to do it since the 2012 Patriots to have those stats for those positions.

[Jason Moore]

Over the last decade, 48 quarterbacks have had 30 or more passing touchdowns and a 5 1/2% touchdown rate or higher. 40 of the 48 decreased in touchdown rate the following.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, he ain't, he's not throwing for 41. Yeah, that's why I have him for 30. But it's. But 30 somehow ended up at 6.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think that when you move.

[Mike Wright]

Beyond the top tier of guys, it's just kind of like the issue is.

[Andy Holloway]

Like two years ago he had a great season. He looked good as, you know, like you, like you talked about you were in on him coming into this year because he was really good. In Tampa two years ago, two years ago he was the quarterback 10. That was good.

[Mike Wright]

Everyone was afraid of the offensive coordinator change.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but I mean he was the quarterback 10, which is a good season. He had a very good season, but at the quarterback 10 for where he's being drafted. That's the issue is like if you're, if you're drafting him at quarterback six and he finishes a quarterback 10, you know, in his ADP, he's not a double digit round quarterback. Right now based on what he did last year, people are drafting Baker much higher than, you know, we would hope to get a deal on him.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean you're right. And so that's too expensive for him too. What's wild is if you look at passing attempts the last two years in Tampa Bay, I hadn't seen this till just now. 566 last year, 570 this year. Okay. So literally almost the exact same amount of attempts. 364 completions last year. 407 completed 7%.

[Jason Moore]

Far more accurate. And his yards per attempt was almost a full yard higher.

[Mike Wright]

So. Yeah, I mean you've got arguments where like, you know, Evans big playability, does that diminish? But I don't know. I don't know. I think it's a fun one to talk about.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Baker's always fun to talk about. But let me just say this. I don't like talking negatively about Baker because I love, I love Baker.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it didn't Feel good?

[Mike Wright]

No. And I know this one's not going to feel good.

[Andy Holloway]

No. I hate this even more because this sucks.

[Mike Wright]

I saw this name pop up for the show and I said, I knew I was talking about Baker, and I'm like, oh, who are you going to be talking about, Jason? And he says, I'm going to be talking about lad McConkey on the show. And I said, well, oh, great. Just another Jason Benedict Arnold. Another Jason loves lad McConkey argument. I can't wait. Can't wait to hit play on that. And then I see this, like, I got him a nine, Mike. You got him at nine?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Jason has his little Lad down at a little spot outside the top 15 at wide receivers. Got him at 16. So, Jason, as much as it hurts, explain yourself.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I love lad McConkey. I went back and I watched film on Lad, and he is so doggone good. If they. If their goal was to have Lad McConkey lead the league in receptions, even in yardage, I think they could do it. If his body can, you know, keep up with it. He's obviously a little bit more undersized. The issue I have here is team identity. This is a team with Harbaugh and Giro that want to establish it. They want to come out and run the ball. You know, last year to start the season, you had J.K. dobbins looking awesome, right? Comes out 10 for 135 on the ground, 17 for 131 on the ground. It looked like this was a running team. And we talk a lot about Justin Herbert's splits between that first month of the season and then the rest of the season, and for just cause, because he sucked the first four games of the season. They weren't throwing the ball a lot. They were running the ball a lot. I JK1 leg, JK Dobbins over here. The gas ran out after those two weeks. It was like, okay, you know, he just. He doesn't have it. They weren't able to run the ball successfully with him and Gus Edwards. And so they. They had to turn the ball over to Justin. Herbert is the best option for them. And they did. And they had success. And they could definitely continue that this year to great success because Herbert is great. The issue is I don't think they're going to have to, and I'm worried that they're going to choose not to and that they're going to. Look, they went out and got Najee Harris. That is right off the bat. That is a humongous Upgrade over Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. But then they went out and got Omarion Hampton. They spent a first round pick on that. They've improved their offensive line. Like this is a team that's saying, hey, what we want to do, we weren't able to do last year. Let's go do it better. Let's run the ball more. They've got a good defense. This is one of those issues where now I'm looking and if they're going to be winning these games and running the clock out, Harbaugh does not need to get the passing stats up. He wants to get the W's. And I think they're going to get a lot of W's by running the ball. Then you add in the fact that you add Trey Harris. I know I'm pre NFL draft. I was very high on Trey Harris. I think he was my wide receiver. Four in the pre NFL draft. They spend a day to pick on him. They also brought in Mike Williams. So there's more target competition and I believe there will be less volume. So that's my main argument. This is not a talent or a capabilities thing. I mean, if you look at the second half of last season with lad McConkey, I'm sure one of you have those.

[Mike Wright]

No, I got. I got him up right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Say it because I get hot bothered.

[Mike Wright]

I can mention from week 11 on and tell you he's 109 for 1600 7.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

But I can also tell you that I remember like my. I love the film. We were off season, lad McConkey brothers. Then he goes to this team and I was pretty down on him for the first half of the year because basically the equation was this. Lad gets in the end zone, you're happy. If he doesn't get in the end zone, you're mad. And you can look at the first 10 games of the year, it's exactly the case. If he didn't get into the end zone, you're talking about, you're finishing at wide receiver. 64 or 55 or 49 or 37 or 36 or 43, it was irrelevant. It was only that last stretch, which, you know, weeks 11 through 18, when they needed to transition the offense, when they didn't have that foundational running game that he could give you a fantasy week regardless of a touchdown, which he did often. 123 yards, 117 yards, 87, 94, 95. And so, I mean, it's compelling because if there's a question about identity, are you Taking him over Trey McBride?

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Mike Wright]

You taking him over Josh Jacobs?

[Andy Holloway]

Probably not.

[Mike Wright]

What about T. Higgins? JSN Kyren?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So I mean.

[Mike Wright]

I mean that's the decision you will have to make about lad.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's where I've got him. I've got him lower than where he's being drafted. I've got his ADP lower now. That's. We're not making the bowl case here or you guys might. Obviously he's. He was a rookie. He finished at 12 as a rookie. And now coming into year two. I've seen the training videos. He's looking awesome. So maybe he levels up and becomes that Keenan Allen for Herbert. That was basically on a per game basis. Like the wide receiver one or two in fantasy. But I've got his projections almost. Almost exactly what they ended up being last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Mike and I have significantly more targets.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Than you currently have projected. Which is. Would match an identity argument where like we both have him pushing 100 catches.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And you're in the 85 range.

[Andy Holloway]

And if he, if he does what he did last year, where he finished as the wide receiver 12. Last year was a weak year for wide receivers like 10 through 20. Fantasy wise. Like if you take his points that he scored last year and you look at what that would have been the previous four years, he would have been the wide receiver 15. Wide receiver 14. Wide receiver 16. Wide receiver 14.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

So. And that's where I've got him. I've got him at wide receiver 16. I think he's a great player. I would love to have him on my team. But where he's being drafted. I think he's being drafted to level up and I'm worried he's going to level out.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it's compelling in the sense that we know you love him unconditionally.

[Andy Holloway]

Unconditionally.

[Mike Wright]

And still we're willing to let the truth come out in your statistics. It hurt. Mike doesn't like it.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, I certainly do not. I. I like LAD a lot this year. My. Those are all extremely fair arguments to me of the guy. Especially when you. Najee plus Hampton in the first round. Like that's a really strong signal by this team of this is who we want to be. Greg Roman offenses are always at the ball.

[Mike Wright]

J.K. dobbins is still hanging around. He might be on the roster.

[Jason Moore]

There is that for me. It's a lot of it is, you know, where his ADP is, which is at least where I'm seeing right now is like fringe second third right he was 1150 and seven touchdowns. That's what he did as a rookie. Now obviously fewer a couple of fewer games here Malik neighbors 1207 Brian Thomas 128210 so far more touchdowns but those two guys they're going in the first round like the the I think it's wild the fact that Ladd hasn't been steamed up to like an early second round pick. These are these are the best bets in in fantasy football rookies who break out and finish as a top 24 wide receiver their first year. They are they are like the odds of their the bet hitting returning value on ADP is so incredibly high with and Lad gives you ceiling where the other guy the other two guys do not so I just I am loving.

[Mike Wright]

Drafting does it make a difference if the Chargers are still tweeting out cool videos of Justin Herbert connecting with Quentin Johnson? Does that it doesn't make any difference.

[Jason Moore]

That makes me feel even better.

[Mike Wright]

They are still sending those videos out and I'm seeing them any I'm not even joking when I say this because you will not believe me because you haven't seen the tape. He caught it. No, I don't believe Quentin Johnson caught it.

[Andy Holloway]

There's too much on the line. There's too much AI now AI videos. You don't know that.

[Jason Moore]

Did you run that? Did you do that?

[Andy Holloway]

AI, come on, you got to zoom in on the faces.

[Jason Moore]

He also had robot hands.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, crap, you're right.

[Andy Holloway]

You got got.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we'll take a break and come back with Mike's Explain Yourself Candidate.

[F]

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[Andy Holloway]

All right, Michael. Yes, there is A player out there.

[Mike Wright]

He might have a tattoo of this.

[Andy Holloway]

Guy by now that apparently you love.

[Mike Wright]

He will never give up on you.

[Andy Holloway]

Will not give up on him.

[Jason Moore]

You absolute killer. Ranking on consistency.

[Andy Holloway]

This is player last year, consistency, rank of an F with 23% of his games being good.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Well, it stands for friendship for me.

[Andy Holloway]

In this game, he finished as the wide receiver 46.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Missing only two games.

[Mike Wright]

He did.

[Andy Holloway]

If you just go points per game. He got eight of them.

[Jason Moore]

He did.

[Andy Holloway]

He got eight points per game.

[Mike Wright]

Got eight of those points.

[Andy Holloway]

And Jalen Waddle.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You have ranked as the wide receiver 28.

[Jason Moore]

Like I said, real.

[Mike Wright]

That's really not that.

[Andy Holloway]

It's not that crazy, but it's, you know, it's a whole lot better than he did last year. Also better than he did the year prior to that. So coming off of two really down.

[Mike Wright]

Years for Jalen Waddle, you've associated yourself with him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Tell us why you believe.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I would. I would. I'd start by saying two years ago he was over a thousand with four touchdowns and 14 games played. So he was on his way to having a very fine fantasy season. Now last year, absolute disaster. Absolute disaster for Tyree Kill and my ranking at 28. The reason it's on the show, it's because you guys have them in the 40s, which it's not that I love Jalen Waldo, but I think ranking him the 40s is a little bit too egregious for a player with his talent, with his actual ceiling ability. And his. His year is. Is tough. Like, you can't. You actually have to get your detective hat on and get. Get some science equipment to go see what really happened in the year for Jalen Waddle and last year in when games where he was healthy and when Tua was healthy, like I said, there's not a lot of crossover here. But in those games, has that ever happened before?

[Mike Wright]

Both those guys healthy in the same game?

[Jason Moore]

It has, actually. I mean, overall, in his career, where 49 games for Jalen Waddle were in those games, he averages 15 PPR points a game when Tua is his quarterback, as opposed to sub 10. Now, when it is not him.

[Andy Holloway]

For clarity, those numbers you just said are the career. Not last year with Tua. Correct.

[Jason Moore]

That is his overall career did not.

[Mike Wright]

Play 49 games with Tua left last.

[Jason Moore]

Year, specifically, Jalen Waddle was actually almost five catches a game, about 67 yards per game. So that. That puts his pace about 80, 1100. You know, essentially the lad McConkey numbers and Tyreek last year in healthy games with Tua, five receptions a game, 67 yards game. Like these guys were neck and neck. Now it came, it was, it was not consistent. Like there were, there were games where Waddle played with Tua and it was bad. And then he had a couple of games where it was just, it was fantastic. It's. This is more of a note of this is a year five player who in 49 career games is averaging 15 PPR points a game. And we, the fantasy community kind of wants to just be done.

[Mike Wright]

I'll tell you why.

[Jason Moore]

Jalen Waddle.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they want to do that because his targets and receptions have gone down for three straight years. They want to do it because even when he plays, he looks like he's limping on and off the field and it feels like everything has to come. Like last year's season game log. That's one of the worst flops in fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

So the burns are severe.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And I went, I went before this show, I watched every target for Jalen Waddle because I'm like, what happened where? And even that doesn't paint the whole picture because you watch him in on a lot of times you're just like, oh no, he's. He's so much faster than everybody. Some of his routes need to be crisp. I saw a lot of lazy out routes that led to issues with the catch. The screen game with Jalen Waddle was not working at all. And my dude had, ooh, he had a bit of the dropsies last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So not everything is the external's fault when it comes to Jayla Waddle. But a player who has was three straight years at 1,000 yards to start his career, that has a terrific or a horrifically bad year. I think that dropping him to the 40s is just a little too extreme for me.

[Andy Holloway]

I actually agree with you that I think we're probably both on too much of the extremes here. When, when I looked at stating out Waddle, I focused at when Tua came back. So because week one, Tua had bajillion yards, looked awesome, everything was great. Then he got concussed in week two. So when he got back in week eight, so weeks eight through 15.

[Jason Moore]

15, he got. Waddle got hurt. It's not in my sample.

[Andy Holloway]

I actually have it not in mind as well. I said that, but it is through 14. Okay. So weeks eight through 14, that was when Tua got back and Waddle was there. Now he was on pace for 77 receptions, 1,000 yards. That's not.

[Jason Moore]

That's not terrible. Five tuddies.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. That's not terrible. It's not great. It's like 10 and a half fantasy points, a flex player. But it's the process. It's the way that it comes because he had a game with Tua where he had 144 yards and a touchdown and another game where he had 99 yards on 12 targets and nine receptions. Those two were great. Those two are the reason why you're getting this 17 game pace of 1,000. But the process. How about four for 45? Two. Two for negative four yards, two receptions for negative four yards. Two receptions for 37 yards, four reception. Like.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

The majority of his games are just disappearing actually.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it looks like that year in 2022 when he was on fire. 1300 plus yards. That one's standing out as an outlier now because 18.1 yards of catch that year. Eighteen point one. Then it's down to 14.1. Then it's down to 12.8. The eight touchdowns. Right. The year since then, four and two. I know some injuries but that look, don't count on him for 17.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

So it does feel like, you know, we kind of hit our. Like that was the explosive, incredible offensive.

[Jason Moore]

Year and part of this, the off it like the 12.8. I think that's low. There was a. An outcome of how Miami was running their offense against defenses.

[Mike Wright]

Johnny wow. And maybe Johnny wow. And get me into waddle.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think that Janu is the issue. I think it was. Kyle had pointed out to me of just how often the Miami Dolphins were against zone. So I mean they're just, they're playing that shell game where they're saying you won't hit a big play on us. And good quarterbacks though, I'm saying good quarterbacks figure out how to do it. Like they figure out how to make sure that explosive things are like Josh Allen is figuring it out where Miami just said, okay, we'll only go. We're going to go short stuff. And maybe, maybe a part of that is the concerns for two or they don't want him to get hit. But then the defense is like, oh good, keep like go ahead, take all this short stuff. We don't care. That's. That's dumb inefficient football. That's not winning football when you can't hit an explosive play. Now that's. Does it come back? It's one of the, the biggest questions of this fantasy football season. What is the Miami Dolphins Offense.

[Mike Wright]

Jason has his target share at 17% which tells me that John new departing would matter a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh my gosh. That would. I was just going to bring that Smith. I think that is the, you know, you say, oh, it's the, it's the defensive coverage. You're right. However, if they do that again, it's going to be John who in the middle of short area stuff, they can replace that with Waddle, which they should. If you remember on the show last year, I was so pissed at Johnnu, I was sick of it because they're getting. He did nothing wrong and he wasn't bad, but he is not the athlete, the explosive guy that can, you know, ever be a team.

[Mike Wright]

He's a great mismatch.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And so it's a great mismatch on defensive linebackers.

[Andy Holloway]

I would have loved to see them get Waddle more. If you look at those games that TUA came back from the concussion and whatever the coverage or whatever to whatever the reason is, you had a pace of 103 receptions for John who Smith and a pace of 101 receptions for Devon HN. Everything was just, yeah, that's going to end.

[Mike Wright]

It's going to end. Those other two guys, yeah, that's 200 receptions.

[Andy Holloway]

And so hopefully they can not play that way. But it's hard to imagine with his concussion issues with the terrible offensive line and the way that defenses are playing them, I feel like their hand is a little bit forced.

[Jason Moore]

The one thing where when you're watching it that you can't fully piece together I talked about myself is because even in those healthy games with Tua where, I mean, he's an 1100 yard type of receiver, his target share in games with Tua was still down at like 16, 17%. And it's you, you. Brooks brought up a point of on right around this time last year, like we're reacting to Jalen Waddle getting so much money and then they just, then they can't figure out how to get him the ball to me, very weird.

[Mike Wright]

And this is another. I don't know if you guys agree. Disagree. Tyreek Hill's like regression hurts Waddle to me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

In the way this offense works. I mean, Tyreek Hill demanded so much. There's so much, so much open field for Waddle to work in that I wonder if he suffers and we haven't had to see him. You know, it's like juju when he had AB on the other side. Like, do you. I'm not saying he's going to Disappear like juju. But boy, juju looked like the next great thing until Antonio Brown wasn't taking away coverage. And you didn't ever get a season like that again. It's hard to project a season for Waddle like his sophomore year. But I think the ambiguity of this offense right now is scary. You know, is a risk rating in the udk. I think he's lower. Jason and I would probably both. It's kind of like lame having him in the 40s because it doesn't really seem like that makes sense. But at the same time to a risk Waddle, injury risk, offensive risk, Johnny and HN Risk.

[Andy Holloway]

It's really one of those offenses where you just got to call your shot and you hope you're right. Because if they get back down, if they get back to downfield passing, the two biggest values in this entire draft might be both Tyree Kill, Jalen Waddle.

[Mike Wright]

Like, that's fair.

[Andy Holloway]

They should be amazing values because they're not being drafted anywhere near their ceiling. If you just make want to make the case ceiling and where people are drafted.

[Mike Wright]

Draft usually Tyree Kill in that party bus or whatever with the quote, oh, no, a couple of days ago.

[Andy Holloway]

Bus. Not a boat, right?

[Mike Wright]

Not a boat.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

It doesn't matter. Anything I hear about Tyreek, I'm like, oh, no.

[Mike Wright]

He just said he was going to knock McDaniel out in one of the games last year because he wasn't getting the ball. He's like, okay. He's like, I almost knocked out our head coach.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, every clock, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Right.

[Mike Wright]

All of our tiered rankings with customizable scoring settings are in the ultimate draft kit@ultimate draftkit.com you want to see all the breakdown of where we have guys projected. We keep them updated. We update them nearly on a daily basis.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, look, I said wide receiver, 28. Is he going to be 28 by the time you hear this show? I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's true. You know, this episode, the way that we're discussing and breaking down individual players, that's a lot like what those hundred plus player profile videos are that we just recorded. So if you've got the udk, check those out in that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. See if we said the same stuff about Jalen Waddle in the video. Hope so. All right, that'll do it for today's episode of the show. Thursday, very special mock draft episode coming your way. Do not miss it. Thanks for listening.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow follow us on TwitterFFballers.