Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: Fantasy Football 2017 - Busts + NOT “My Guys”
Release Date: August 25, 2017
Introduction
In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into the challenging task of identifying potential busts for the upcoming 2017 NFL season. They also explore the concept of players who, while not necessarily busts statistically, are still not advisable to draft ("Not My Guys"). The discussion is enriched with expert analysis, candid opinions, and strategic insights to aid fantasy football enthusiasts in making informed decisions.
Segment 1: Understanding Busts and "Not My Guys"
Jason Moore opens the conversation by highlighting the difficulty in labeling players as busts, emphasizing the responsibility that comes with such predictions:
"It's just difficult to put that on someone ... I got two guys that I am absolutely fine putting this label on."
[01:27]
Mike Wright echoes the sentiment, stressing the importance of honesty in their evaluations:
"It's ... difficulty to put that on someone ... but I'm going to tell you the truth."
[01:54]
Definition Clarifications:
-
Busts: Players expected to underperform based on past statistics, average draft positions, and offensive roles.
-
Not My Guys: Players who, despite not being outright busts, are deemed undesirable to draft due to various concerns, such as inconsistent performance or unfavorable team dynamics.
Segment 2: "Not My Guys" Breakdown
Jason Moore shares his "Not My Guys":
- Isaiah Crowell (RB, Cleveland Browns): Despite decent rankings, concerns about inconsistent performance and team turmoil make him unreliable.
"I always end up taking the guy behind him. I just can't get myself to..."
[04:00]
Andy Holloway introduces Melvin Gordon (RB, San Diego Chargers) as his "Not My Guy." While Gordon has been a consistent performer, Holloway expresses doubts about his ability to replicate touchdown-heavy performances:
"I have ... he's in my top 10 for my projections, but ... I think it can't continue unless you see major improvement."
[06:07]
Mike Wright counters by highlighting his trust in Gordon's ability, placing him as his number four running back despite acknowledging potential regression:
"He's my number four running back ... you know ... much later than him."
[06:42]
Additional "Not My Guys":
- Patriots Running Backs (e.g., James White, Dion Lewis) due to inconsistent usage and game-plan variability.
"James White ... Get on the goal line and give him the ball ..."
[08:06]
Segment 3: Bust Candidates
The hosts present their top bust candidates for the season, providing in-depth analysis for each.
1. LeGarrett Blount (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)
Mike Wright critiques Blount's 2016 performance, labeling it as his career-best despite inconsistencies:
"Out of the top 24 finishers in 2016 ... LeGarrett Blount ... still wasn't the consistent force you want ..."
[12:21]
Concerns include:
- Lack of improvement prospects.
- Offensive line uncertainties.
- Potential competition from teammates like Wendell Smallwood and Danelle Pumphrey.
Andy Holloway agrees, pointing out the Eagles' reliance on volume without guaranteeing production:
"They can't possibly continue to go forward with the Blount's production unless you see major improvement."
[13:11]
2. Devonte Adams (WR, Green Bay Packers)
Mike Wright selects Adams as his second bust candidate, citing last year's performance as explosive yet inconsistent:
"Last year ... 12 touchdowns ... but ... 75 receptions ... not the consistent force."
[24:52]
Jason Moore emphasizes the unpredictability of Adams' touchdown production, especially with Eli Manning as quarterback:
"TDs are hard to predict ... Texans offense ... defensive strength ..."
[25:04]
Andy Holloway notes the difficulty in banking on Adams' touchdowns given the Texans' offensive style:
"He is being drafted at a spot that says he will do it ... it's going to be hard for him to do that."
[40:49]
Segment 4: Listener Questions (Mailbag)
The hosts address questions from their audience, providing tailored advice based on their expertise.
Question 1: Draft Strategy in a 10-Team League with Three Wide Receivers and a Flex
Listener: Ryan McCauley from Dallas asks whether it’s smart to adopt a wide receiver-heavy draft strategy.
Andy Holloway suggests that altering the scarcity of positions doesn't necessarily change his balanced approach:
"I don't change my strategy ... I'm more likely to take a wide receiver."
[42:20]
Mike Wright concurs, emphasizing the ease of finding wide receivers but maintains a balanced roster:
"It's just so much easier to find a wide receiver."
[42:35]
Jason Moore adds that his initial draft strategy remains unchanged, focusing on quality regardless of league configuration:
"It doesn't change my first few rounds ... be more balanced."
[43:28]
Recommendation: Maintain a balanced approach early in the draft, focusing on high-quality players regardless of positional abundance, and adjust depth strategy based on league specifics.
Question 2: Draft Rankings – Top 200 vs. Tier-Based Rankings
Listener: Brad from Detroit inquires about using top 200 rankings versus tier-based rankings from the Ultimate Draft Kit.
Jason Moore advises against relying solely on the top 200 list:
"Don't do it ... rankings are super flawed in that methodology."
[43:55]
Andy Holloway cautions that top 200 lists can mislead draft strategies:
"You're going to miss the running backs grouped together ..."
[44:43]
Mike Wright supports tier-based drafting, highlighting its flexibility and adaptability during drafts:
"Stay water ... make adjustments ... think a little more ..."
[46:00]
Recommendation: Utilize tier-based rankings to maintain positional flexibility and adapt to the fluid nature of drafts, rather than adhering strictly to a rigid top 200 list.
Question 3: Third-Round Pick – Ezekiel Elliott vs. Rob Gronkowski
Listener: Quincy from Harrisburg seeks advice on choosing between Ezekiel Elliott (RB) and Rob Gronkowski (TE) in the third round.
Andy Holloway and Mike Wright both lean towards drafting Gronkowski due to his high potential and positional scarcity:
"I'd be Loving life."
[46:49]
Jason Moore acknowledges the temptation but underscores the consensus for Gronkowski:
"It's not that clear cut ... but I think taking Zeke ... but so could Gronk."
[47:06]
Recommendation: Favor drafting Rob Gronkowski in the third round for his elite tight end performance and significant upside, which can provide a competitive advantage given the rarity of top-tier tight ends.
Question 4: Running Back Enhancement from Offensive Line Improvements
Listener: Andrew from SeaWorld questions which running back would benefit most from their team's improved offensive line.
Andy Holloway identifies Todd Gurley as a primary beneficiary:
"Todd Gurley."
[48:54]
Jason Moore adds C.J. Anderson as another potential beneficiary due to expected offensive line improvements:
"We'll also throw C.J. Anderson ..."
[49:04]
Recommendation: Consider drafting running backs like Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, who stand to gain significantly from their teams' enhanced offensive lines, potentially boosting their rushing yards and overall fantasy performance.
Segment 5: Closing Remarks
The hosts wrap up the episode by encouraging listeners to engage with the community, participate in giveaways, and stay tuned for future episodes filled with valuable fantasy football insights.
Notable Quotes
-
Jason Moore on Bust Labeling:
"It's just difficult to put that on someone ... I got two guys that I am absolutely fine putting this label on."
[01:27] -
Andy Holloway on Melvin Gordon:
"He's in my top 10 for my projections ... no way ... unless you see major improvement."
[06:42] -
Mike Wright on Devonte Adams:
"He's being drafted at a spot that says he will do it ... it's going to be hard for him to do that."
[24:52] -
Jason Moore on Tier-Based Drafting:
"When you have a top 200 rankings ... you are going to miss that ... much, much better way to draft."
[44:49] -
Andy Holloway on Ezekiel Elliott vs. Gronkowski:
"I'd be Loving life."
[46:49]
Conclusion
This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast provides a thorough analysis of potential busts and undesirables in the 2017 fantasy football landscape. By dissecting player performances, team dynamics, and draft strategies, the hosts offer invaluable guidance to help fantasy managers navigate their drafts and build competitive teams. Whether you're weighing the risks of drafting certain running backs or considering the high-value tight end options, the insights from Andy, Jason, and Mike aim to enhance your decision-making process for a successful fantasy football season.