Fantasy Football 2017 - Fantasy Trade Troubles + AFC West Breakdown

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode: Fantasy Football 2017 - Fantasy Trade Troubles + AFC West Breakdown Release Date: August 3, 2017

The Fantasy Footballers, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright, delve deep into the intricacies of fantasy football in their August 3, 2017 episode. This comprehensive summary captures the essence of their discussions, providing valuable insights for both seasoned and novice fantasy football enthusiasts.

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1. Trade Policy Dilemmas

Quick Question Segment: Balancing Trade Policies A listener, identified as the commissioner of his league, reached out via Twitter with concerns about his league's voting-based trade policy. He highlighted how one member's constant campaigning against trades jeopardizing their playoff chances has led to a stagnation in trading activities.

• Mike Wright emphasizes the redundancy of traditional voting and waiting periods in fantasy football trades. “Why do we still have voting and these waiting periods and things in fantasy football?... It makes the game worse.” (04:00)

• Jason Moore adds that in established leagues with experienced players, vetoing should be reserved strictly for collusion or blatant exploitation. He suggests implementing an immediate trade approval system with potential retroactive reviews based on unanimous opposition. “If a trade seems lopsided... It’s real, it’s really, really hard to get everything right.” (07:14)

• Andy Holloway proposes empowering the commissioner to handle suspicions of unfair trades, ensuring decisions aren't solely based on individual biases. “Perhaps it makes people feel better because the commissioner doesn't have all the power.” (06:40)

The trio collectively advocates for streamlined trade processes that foster more active trading without unnecessary barriers, enhancing the overall fantasy football experience.

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2. Player Updates and Injury News

Injury Reports Impacting Fantasy Rosters The hosts provide updates on key players' health statuses, crucial for managers making draft and waiver decisions.

• Sterling Shepard reports a recent ankle injury, diagnosed as a low ankle sprain. “Things looking good. Diagnosed with a Low ankle sprain...” (10:05)

• Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins exits practice with a non-contact left leg injury, raising concerns about his season's impact. “Ryan Tannehill just scrambled for X amount of yards. Let's stop talking about this knee.” (13:46)

• Will Fuller sustains a broken collarbone, sidelining him for two to three months, which subsequently affects DeAndre Hopkins' fantasy value. “Expected to miss two to three months. Does this help or hurt Hopkins?” (10:38)

• Alshon Jeffery misses his third consecutive practice due to a shoulder injury, highlighting the Dolphins' injury-prone roster. “Alshon Jeffrey, shoulder injury, missed his third practice in a row on Thursday.” (16:58)

These updates underscore the volatility of player statuses and the importance of monitoring injuries closely during the fantasy football season.

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3. AFC West Breakdown

The hosts dissect each team in the AFC West, analyzing player performances, team dynamics, and their implications for fantasy football.

a. Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback Concerns and Running Back Dynamics Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about the Chiefs' quarterback stability, predicting potential changes in the starting lineup due to investment in younger players like Pat Mahomes and Kareem Hunt.

• Andy Holloway predicts, “...my prediction is that Alex Smith and Spencer Ware are not starters at their position at some point during this year.” (19:44)

• Mike Wright highlights Alex Smith's role as a reliable streaming option on the waiver wire, noting his versatility despite occasional low-output games. “Alex Smith is the perfect streaming waiver wire quarterback.” (21:10)

• Jason Moore discusses the running back situation, suggesting a 50/50 timeshare between Spencer Ware and Kareem Hunt. “I think it will be a 50, 50 timeshare and both of these guys are going to have value.” (22:00)

The Chiefs' offensive strategy, especially concerning their running backs and quarterback play, remains a focal point for fantasy managers.

b. Oakland Raiders

Receiver Conundrums and Quarterback Stability The Raiders face challenges with their wide receiver lineup and quarterback performance.

• Jason Moore critiques the inconsistency between Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, advocating for drafting Crabtree as a safer, value pick. “Draft Michael Crabtree and be cautious with Cooper. If it fell this way, are you okay having both of them on your team? No.” (35:11)

• Andy Holloway warns against overvaluing Derek Carr, anticipating potential underperformance based on past division games. “You might want a refund by mid season if you lock yourself into Derek Carr with an early draft pick.” (36:06)

• Mike Wright points out Derek Carr's struggles in late-season division games, emphasizing the tough AFC West schedule quarterbacks face. “Derek Carr's final four games... he scored 11 or fewer fantasy points per game.” (38:07)

The Raiders' quarterback and receiver performances are critical considerations for fantasy drafts, with a call to manage expectations on their outputs.

c. Denver Broncos

Wide Receiver Focus and Offensive Line Improvements The Broncos are analyzed with a spotlight on their wide receivers and revamped offensive line.

• Andy Holloway praises Demaryius Thomas for his consistent performance, despite missing high-reception roles, positioning him as a top-performing fantasy receiver. “He’s the most consistent player in football over the last three years at the wide receiver position.” (41:37)

• Jason Moore highlights the offensive line's significant upgrades, anticipating improved running back performances from C.J. Anderson and Jamal Charles. “The running game should be able to open up a little bit. More for CJ Anderson and maybe Jamal Charles.” (45:52)

• Mike Wright discusses Melvin Gordon's potential, balancing his high usage with injury concerns. “Melvin Gordon had no backup last year.” (55:08)

Denver's enhancements to their offensive line and receiver corps suggest a promising outlook for fantasy owners targeting their running backs and wide receivers.

d. Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen’s Revival and Running Back Strategy The Chargers' performance hinges on Keenan Allen's health and the running back rotation.

• Mike Wright underscores Keenan Allen's reliability and high contested catch rate, despite his fluctuating draft position. “He is really, really, really good. Maybe the upside... is devastating to opposing defenses.” (50:39)

• Jason Moore discusses Melvin Gordon's dual potential as a running back, balancing efficiency with the risk of reduced touchdowns. “I see the upside with Melvin Gordon.” (53:23)

• Andy Holloway critiques draft strategies around Keenan Allen, emphasizing his value despite his lack of recent touchdown production. “It's a risk-reward thing... The reports are positive.” (51:43)

The Chargers' combination of a revitalized wide receiver and robust running back options presents diverse drafting strategies for fantasy managers.

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4. Running Backs and Wide Receivers Analysis

Balancing Scarcity and Potential Breakouts The Fantasy Footballers delve into the nuances of drafting running backs and wide receivers, stressing the importance of understanding player roles and team dynamics.

• CJ Anderson is lauded for his reliability and involvement in the Chargers' offense, despite criticisms of his handling by certain analysts. “His job is very, very safe... When he's on the field, he produces.” (46:16)

• DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard are discussed as potential alternatives for backups, though concerns about their ability to take over the primary role remain. “There too many guys there to say that there is a handcuff. There is no Marshawn Lynch handcuff.” (40:26)

• Demaryius Thomas and Amari Cooper are compared, with Thomas being favored for his consistency despite Cooper's high talent. “Demarius Thomas... extremely talented and I don't usually like drafting guys where the... you do have players that.” (31:55)

The hosts emphasize the importance of evaluating player consistency, team offensive strategies, and potential breakout candidates when selecting running backs and wide receivers.

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5. Final Thoughts and Upcoming Content

Promotions and Future Episodes Wrapping up the episode, the Fantasy Footballers promote their partnership with Pristine Auction for exclusive memorabilia and tease upcoming segments, including more divisional breakdowns and specialized episodes focusing on sleeper picks and breakout candidates.

• Andy Holloway encourages listeners to join their best ball leagues at playdraft.com, highlighting the interactive and competitive nature of their offerings. “If you are looking to get into some of those awesome best ball leagues, there's no better place to play than playdraft.com ballers.” (57:04)

• The hosts hint at expanding their content to cover deeper fantasy insights and player profiles, urging listeners to engage with their community for ongoing support and updates.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway: “If my calculations are correct, you are listening to this before your fantasy football drafts have taken place. I've been to the future and those that followed the advice from the Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit had a spectacular season...” (00:06)

• Mike Wright: “Why do we still have voting and these waiting periods and things in fantasy football?... It makes the game worse.” (04:00)

• Jason Moore: “If you haven't heard us say it, you only veto a trade for collusion. You don't veto a trade because you think it's lopsided. Right. That's it.” (05:54)

• Andy Holloway: “We are always listening to how we can make this show better and make your league better...” (03:20)

• Jason Moore: “Amari Cooper, senior year he had a 50% contested catch rate. That's below average for college.” (34:09)

• Mike Wright: “Derek Carr's final four games... he scored 11 or fewer fantasy points per game.” (38:07)

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This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast offers a wealth of information, from strategic trade policies to in-depth team and player analyses within the AFC West. Whether you're refining your draft strategy or navigating mid-season trades, the insights provided are invaluable for crafting a championship-winning fantasy football team.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Great Scott. If my calculations are correct, you are listening to this before your fantasy football drafts have taken place. I've been to the future and those that followed the advice from the Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit had a spectacular season and with many victories. It's almost as if Biff had given each of them a copy of Gray's Sports Almanac. I'd highly recommend heading over to www.ultimateraftkit.com without any further delay.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the Play Draft Studios with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome into the Thursday, August 3, 2017 there is football on the.

[Mike Wright]

I smell something.

[Andy Holloway]

Is it pigskin? Is it? Oh, no, you smell. Oh, come on, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I smelled.

[Andy Holloway]

Come on, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

No, I smell football.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I thought you were gonna say you smelled butt.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Jake. Yeah, that's what I thought, too. If you're watching the YouTube.

[Andy Holloway]

Hold on. Before everybody turns off the. Turns off the podcast. Mike has taken. Mike has taken the opportunity. We're talking about the AFC west today. And so he had snagged an autographed Jake Butt jersey from Pristine Auction. And I walk into the studio today and gone is J. Ajay's jersey off the wall and in its place, Jake Butt.

[Jason Moore]

That's really where I thought you were going. I thought you were.

[Mike Wright]

Guys, I am so far above that level of humor.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodness gracious. That is the opposite.

[Jason Moore]

True.

[Mike Wright]

But what I was gonna say is.

[Jason Moore]

There'S football tonight also. Hey, we need to give a big old happy birthday. Tom Brady's 40 today.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, is he really?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, today he's 40.

[Andy Holloway]

40 years old.

[Mike Wright]

40, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Garoppolo. 10 years away from starting. Exciting. Welcome into the show. We are talking AFC west breakdown and great quick question. We're talking about some trading dilemmas, some trading philosophies for commissioners, how to run trades in your league. So we're going to talk through that on the quick question. Wanted to let the listeners know now that we're five days a week, we've got two more days of these divisional breakdowns. So today and tomorrow, tomorrow we'll be doing the NFC west and then it's on to bigger and better things. We're going to have sleeper breakout bus shows. We're going to have our My Guys episodes. There's just going to be more. There'll be more mock draft episodes. You know, every day of the week, we're going to have something new and special for you to get you ready for the 2017 fantasy football season. So get excited for that Follow us on twitter @the ffballers. So you know what's going on. Check out our [e-mail] and always feel free to give us feedback over there. We are always listening to how we can make this show better and make your league better, you know, and little Jake butt doesn't hurt.

[Mike Wright]

Never.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, quick question of the day. This one came in on Twitter. He said, hey, Andy. Recent subscriber.

[Mike Wright]

Hey, Andy.

[Andy Holloway]

Podcast. Yeah, this was to me, but you guys get to answer it. He absolutely loves the podcast. What he does not love is the trading policy in his league. There's a voting policy in place, and every season, one guy just campaigns and complains about every trade he feels threatens his playoff spot, resulting in people not even trying to trade anymore. Any suggestions or ideas for balanced trade policies in the league? Hashtag. He signed it overit Commission.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, good. So this is the actual commissioner. This is the one with the.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right.

[Mike Wright]

So, I mean, I'm trying not to get my blood boiling here at the beginning of the show, but here's the deal. Why do people. Why do we still have voting and these waiting periods and things in fantasy football? And my answer to that is, well, that's just. That's how we've always done it.

[Jason Moore]

Right?

[Mike Wright]

That doesn't make it right. It's. It's. It's. It's a waste. It makes the game worse. And we. We have taken a look at that in our league of record, and we've completely eliminated the waiting period. You make a trade with someone, we're all big boys and big girls. We sometimes a trade may not seem fair, but guess what? They made the trade. These two people have agreed that this is a fair and equal trade. So just because me as a third party may not like what's going on, it. It's irrelevant. I'm not part of that trade.

[Jason Moore]

I would. I will say this. There's a slight difference in the type of league you're playing in. So if you're in a fresh league that's got some vets and some noobs, you know, there's. There's three or four people in the league that maybe this is their first time playing, then having a trade window where there's voting can kind of make sense. And that's the only situation. So, like, we say this all the time, if you haven't heard us say it, you only veto a trade for collusion. You don't veto a trade because you think it's lopsided. Right. That's it. It's collusion or bust. But I will say there is one slight other thing that I would be willing to vote a veto on, and that would be taking advantage. Not collusion, but taking advantage of someone who doesn't know at all what they're doing yet. So, you know, if news comes out that one half knows something and the other, you know, doesn't know yet, then that's ridiculous. Or so you're saying.

[Andy Holloway]

Hypothetically, if Jordy Nelson tore his ACL and then the other player goes and makes a trade offer since Jordy Nelson for, you know, Julio Jones.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Takes advantage of an owner that doesn't know that, to me, I would vote no on.

[Andy Holloway]

But the thing is, you can put that power in the commissioner's hand to protect that type of thing or institute if you want a veto policy. Maybe it makes people feel better because the commissioner doesn't have all the power. Make it unanimous. If every person in the league simultaneously agrees that the Jordy Nelson who's injured for Julio Jones trade is wrong, then at least you have a policy that doesn't put the power, you know, in a couple people's hands to judge the value of a trade. Because Mike said it. If the trade seems lopsided, we've seen this many, many times in our years and years of playing because they can go the other direction.

[Mike Wright]

We get things wrong.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. All the time in football.

[Mike Wright]

It's really, really hard to get everything right. Nay, impossible. So, I mean, we.

[Andy Holloway]

There was a trade is not always reality.

[Mike Wright]

The trade that comes to mind with. In our league of record that involved, I believe it was A.J. green. And we thought, oh, my goodness, the person who traded away A.J. green just got hosed. But in fact, they got a whole bunch of really awesome startable pieces. And you're like, oh, well, maybe they actually lose that trade and I should just shut my mouth.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And here's a pro tip for a lot of leagues, because I think there's a lot of listeners that say, okay, my league doesn't have the same problem as this person that contacted you on Twitter. You know, they only veto for collusion. But pro tip is get rid of the waiting period. That doesn't mean you're getting rid of votes. You can vote every time. What we do is. What you can do is you have a trade go through, it's instant, then a poll goes up for voting. And if it turns out that it's unanimous or that half the league has a huge problem, whatever your policy is, then you can retroactively undo it. But the waiting period causes major problems when it comes to waiver wire timeline. Thursday games, Thursday games. And all of a sudden there's like this. With a 24 hour waiting period, I feel like there's like 36 hours where I can actually make a trade. And otherwise it's like, okay, now I'm too close to this game, or I don't know how the waivers went, things like that.

[Andy Holloway]

The NFL wasn't the same. Mike was saying, we do it because we've always done it. But the NFL didn't have Thursday night games and Sunday night games and two Monday night games on a certain week, and waiver wire periods going through the way they do and fab budgets. Eliminating that barrier to trading is what this writer, what this listener was asking. He's saying, hey, how do I incentivize people to trade? Well, don't make it so burdensome. And don't tuck it into a tiny little window every week where you have to fight tooth and nail to actually get something through.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And just stare. If there's one guy that's always the problem, you go up to him, you put this podcast on. You stare him deeply in the eyes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You click, play lovingly. Lovingly, lovingly.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe rub his cheek with the back of your hand.

[Mike Wright]

Passionately.

[Andy Holloway]

Listen to this. Buy him a Jake butt. Jersey.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the.

[Andy Holloway]

When you hand it to him, you say, I'm not saying anything, but I'm just saying.

[Mike Wright]

I'm saying, just saying. Before we jump into the news, I just want to tease something on this show.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Not another haircut.

[Mike Wright]

No, I can't get much more off of the hair without looking like Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, ouch. Let's just stick to the weight problems and leave my hair alone.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, so his smile curled quick on that one.

[Mike Wright]

So foot clan this Tuesday. So this upcoming Tuesday, there's going to be a very exciting announcement regarding this show. In the fantasy footballers. I just want to make sure everyone is staying tuned and staying on pins and needles.

[Jason Moore]

Cool.

[Andy Holloway]

Get up on the. Get on the pins and the needles.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Well, safely, as safe as possible. You need to. Your entire body needs to be on the bed of nails for it to be safe.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right. Okay. So big announcement coming up.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Football tonight, I think.

[Jason Moore]

Well, it's.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, it's kind of football.

[Jason Moore]

So no football tonight.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Updating Sterling shepherd news yesterday, we talked about it live on the show. The news broke on the show about his ankle injury. Things looking good. Diagnosed with a Low ankle sprain, also known as what I had every other day I played basketball growing up. So the tears may have been for not, but that's a good news for Sterling Shepherd. We had some. Somebody commented that sometimes we are not as sensitive to player injuries as they would like us to be. And I kind of. I kind of understand that criticism.

[Jason Moore]

Excuse me, you're dying over here.

[Andy Holloway]

I kind of understand that because, you know, in fantasy, I feel like we have the responsibility to quickly turn our attention to the implications of injury and the other benefits someone else, which benefits someone else. And I don't think the criticism was more on that. I think it was more on, like the way we make light of, I don't know, Eric Ebron or Carlos Hyde or those players that just keep getting hurt. But, you know, those situations are ones where I think we're all reflecting on the collective memory of every player in fantasy football that has to deal with those type of things. But we're very happy. I mean, yesterday the Sterling Trevor news had us in a bad mood. So he is, he's okay. Will Fuller, not as okay. Suffered a broken collarbone on Wednesday. Expected to miss two to three months. Does this help or hurt Hopkins?

[Jason Moore]

It helps Hopkins. I mean, Hopkins is a volume receiver. I gave Hopkins. I only bumped him up five receptions because I'm expecting Fuller. I took five games away from Fuller, which was about 20 receptions, and I moved some of those to Hopkins direction. When we saw Hopkins as a dominant receiver, it was because of his market share. He was the target share. Yes, well, right, his target share, his market share. It was because he dominated that. And so if Fuller is out, Fuller is clearly their next best wide receiver. And I think that just will mean you've got to rely more on Hopkins. And I'm the Hopkins, I'm the anti Hopkins guy here. I think he's one of, if not the most overdraft drafted players so far up to this point. But this does bump him up. I think he's up to my, like, wide receiver 17.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't even like Anthony Hopkins.

[Jason Moore]

Don't you say that. Sir Anthony Hopkins.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's very true. Jaylen Strong, Braxton Miller, do we have any interest in these?

[Andy Holloway]

I do think Jalen Strong has an opportunity. I mean, there have been, there's been a little bit of buzz about him and with this injury, he'll have an opportunity to prove that he's worthy of being a first or second round draft pick. He was, he flashed in the red zone at times, but yeah, opportunity there. I'll be really interested. It seems like things are trending towards Watson and Kaiser maybe starting the season as the starters on both of these franchises. So as a fantasy player, look, the unknown is more exciting than the known of Tom Savage and Cody Kessler. So I'm excited if those opportunities happen. Not going to read too much into the upside, but at least it exists. Whereas I don't feel like it exists with Tom Savage, unfortunately. All right, big news this morning. And again, you might have more information by the time you hear this than we do. Ryan Tannehill exited the prac Thursday's practice today. Non contact left leg injury, the left knee. The team is currently courting Schefter. They're fearing the worst. This is the knee. Just so people understand, this is the same knee that he injured last year. He had a partial tear of the ACL and he chose instead of having surgery to have stem cell treatment and to basically rehab the injury. Now, I was on Twitter this morning and it was absolutely incredible because five minutes before he was hurt. Beatriders or the Miami Twitter, I don't remember who it was said, were they.

[Mike Wright]

Saying something very positive?

[Andy Holloway]

They said Ryan Tannehill just scrambled for X amount of yards. Let's stop talking about this knee. That was the exact quote like don't worry about the knee. And one of the medical doctors on Twitter said, hey, the partially torn ACL is not a problem until it's a problem. Like that was the reaction to that tweet and five minutes later it's a problem. It's a problem and we don't know the implications. Jason, you were doing some research into Matt Moore and how Tannehill, Matt Moore affected that offense. What, what did you find if Ryan Tannehill misses time?

[Jason Moore]

There were big shifts and granted it was only three games last year, but we saw what does Ryan Gase and what would the game plan shift to?

[Mike Wright]

Adam Gase.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, Adam Gase. What would the game plan shift to with Ryan Tannehill gone? And what we saw last year was a major uptick in carries for Jay Ajayi. Now, his total production was actually less per game, fantasy wise because the team didn't score as many touchdowns in those games. However, you're talking about a guy that went from 16 carries a game to 22 carries a game in the three games with Matt Moore, and he averaged over 100 yards a game during those games. What I was also fascinated with was how was Matt Moore targeting receivers. Devontae Parker was about the same, but with the difference between Jarvis Landry And Kenny Stills was pretty drastic. Jarvis Landry was on Pace for 97 receptions and his pace with Matt Moore would have been 80. So that's a significant difference.

[Andy Holloway]

And that seems corollary to the run dependency, right?

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

But Matt Moore also, if I'm remembering correctly, Matt Moore goes deep.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he does. And Kenny Stills, in those last three games, he caught a touchdown in every single one of those games. Three of his nine touchdowns came with Matt Moore. So that running game to bring the defense up and drop that bomb over the can, he, Stills, you know, it.

[Andy Holloway]

Changes the landscape for Miami. It really does. Because I think, I think Matt Moore.

[Mike Wright]

Is a competent quarterback though.

[Andy Holloway]

No, he is. He is a competent quarterback. But I think that there was something with Tannehill and his evolution that at least offer. I think it offered more upside with Adam Gaze and Tannehill growing than Matt Moore does. Like Matt Moore, I believe he can have some solid games. I think this team can still be a pretty good team. And you wonder, do they? Let's say you find out Tannehill isn't playing. Matt Moore has more time in camp. Preseason, the offense, instead of coming in at the back of the season where it's like, okay, let's protect him, let's hand the ball off. Maybe it doesn't swing that far.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And so far right now I'll just call him Mr. Armando because I don't know how to pronounce his last name. But from the Miami Herald, great beat writer. You know, he said they're hoping for the best, but sources are saying after the examination the team is fearing the worst.

[Mike Wright]

Like this is a funny one, but we don't know Sam Bradford, that happened to him, right. Where like he basically he got hurt and then right away the next preseason got hurt again.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's unfortunate. Alshon Jeffrey, shoulder injury, missed his third practice in a row on Thursday. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm not going to over read into it.

[Andy Holloway]

This is an odd start to the off season though because all of the injury prone have at least shown some of their injury prone nature. With, you know, Jordan Reed and Eric Ebron and Alshon Jeffrey and John Brown. These are all players that keep Keenan.

[Jason Moore]

Allen off the field this week. Just let him go, let him take a vacation.

[Andy Holloway]

We're going to talk a lot about Keenan Allen on today's show. Couple of updates for you. Steelers third round running back James Conner, AC joint sprain in the shoulder. So not a massively severe injury. We are looking at that Lev Bell handcuff situation with Connor and toussaint and then I threw this one in there because I wanted to illustrate what I said on the show the other day. Baltimore sun just reported Buck Allen is quote, having a very nice camp for those worried about additions to the backfield. This is what I was saying the other day. I don't think there'll be additions to the Baltimore backfield because I believe Buck Allen will fill a depth role on that roster. And with West Woodhead and Talia Farrow at fullback but able to take short yardage carries, I think this team has what they need.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Buck Allen, it gets cold in Baltimore. Someone needs to keep Terrence west seat nice and warm from when he's on the field.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Buck Allen can do that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Buck Allen having a nice camp being news shows how bad it's been in Baltimore. This. This is the best they can come up with right now.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, you guys want to get divisional?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Let'S get divisional. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

We're going to start out with the Kansas City Chiefs 12 and 4 last year. I have an article that I am finishing up with 30 bull or a bold prediction per team.

[Mike Wright]

But are you really finishing? I am.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I'm adding to it. It's. Look, there's a time to release these things. Mike and I have the entire AFC done and I'm working on the NFC and I want it all as one big package.

[Mike Wright]

We're all very excited for this article.

[Jason Moore]

I've been waiting for months.

[Andy Holloway]

Stop. You think I want to release that Jim of an article back in June? Come on. Oh, it's timing savvy. Yeah. This is like a Christmas Day movie release. You hold on to it for a little while.

[Mike Wright]

Let's get that Oscar buzz. You gotta wait till it's Oscar.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know about that. Yeah, I'm angling here for do we.

[Jason Moore]

Do we qualify for the Emmys yet? Come on, Emmy, if you're out there. Emmy, if you're out.

[Mike Wright]

Are you talking to a person?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Emmy, that's. He gives. He or she gives the awards out. They're the Emmys. Come on, Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike doesn't know this stuff. All right?

[Mike Wright]

The Chiefs are 12.

[Andy Holloway]

Were 12 and 4 last year. My bold prediction for the Chiefs, I'm sticking with it. Even though I wrote it, you know, like six months ago. Like you said it. Look, I don't like the way the schedule looks for the Kansas City Chiefs. I think their opportunity to get off to a strong start. They're a well coached team. I'm not going to say it can't happen. But my prediction is that Alex Smith and Spencer Ware are not starters at their position at some point during this year. And so the drafting of Pat Mahomes, the high level investment, the drafting of Kareem Hunt, what his ceiling is talent wise and the fact that Kansas City, I mean, they start the year, we're just going to kick it off. You're going to go to New England and you're going to play. Okay, so just go play in New England. Then you got Philly and Los Angeles and Washington. You're in Los Angeles Chargers, not Rams. But then Houston. Either way, it's Houston, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver. I just don't like the first eight games. I think their opportunity to get off to a poor start is there. I think the investment by the front office in these younger pieces because of the cap situation. I just want to warn people that, look, I traded Alex Smith in a dynasty league to get Joe Flacco, okay? Now, all things being equal, I'd rather start Alex Smith week to week than Joe Flacco unless Alex Smith isn't starting. And that was my concern. I needed insurance for Andrew Luck. I went and got a guy that I know is going to start the whole year for their team and I have some concern there.

[Mike Wright]

So you'll be sad when Alex Smith is starting for the Cardinals next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, maybe not just saying better than Drew Stanton, but.

[Mike Wright]

So Alex Smith, the last two years, this is why we talk about. Alex Smith is the perfect streaming waiver wire quarterback. The last two years he has been a quarterback 1, 42% of the time.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, he, that's pretty good.

[Mike Wright]

He gives you duds.

[Andy Holloway]

That's crazy.

[Mike Wright]

But in the right matchups and just for some context, Matt Stafford 47%, Carson Palmer 45%. So Alex Smith is always there on the waiver wire fee to grab when you see him in a good positive matchup in which, I mean, some of those are, those games you listed are positive matchups. He's not a guy you have to draft, but he's always there and he can give you some points.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think the big stories with the Chiefs, you've got two. You have the Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware battle and you have Tyreek Hill. What can he become with Jeremy Macklin gone? So with those, I'll start with the running backs. I do not see a world in which Spencer Ware is not involved. They have a good running back that knows the system that has been efficient for them. And this is a team that has always, and I believe will always you know, Andy Reid coached. Teams will always be productive for running backs in fantasy football. I think that Kareem Hunt will be involved and I think he'll be involved from day one. You don't see Spencer Ware as a workhorse. You don't see him as the guy you want to hand the keys to the kingdom to. That wasn't their intent. Jamal Charles got injured. Jamal Charles left. They trade up for Kareem Hunt. They need him to be involved. They want him to be involved. But I think it will be a 50, 50 timeshare and both of these guys are going to have value. I think even for where each of them are going in the draft, they're a worthy pick right now.

[Mike Wright]

Spencer ware had the 18th or tied for the 18th most carries in the league. Also the receiving game. He had the sixth most receiving yards for a running back. He had 15 fewer receiving yards than Devontae Freeman, who is heralded as one of the best pass catching running backs in the league. And here's what happened to Spencer Ware because I know everyone feels disappointed in his production last year for fantasy, but we're going to play a little game, not really a game, but just these guys had more rushing touchdowns than Spencer Ware. John Kuhn, Jeremy Langford, Sean Drone, Andy Dalton, I mean this, this was the problem. Despite him getting carries inside of the 10, he had 18 carries inside of the 10. That that speaks to. There should be some refrigerating to the mean. Yeah. Returning to. Yeah, I don't know how we want to phrase that.

[Andy Holloway]

Now we have the variable of Hunt now in the mix though, because. Do you expect 18 carries inside the 10 for Spencer Ware again?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I expect him to be the primary runner.

[Jason Moore]

If you look, if you look at how they used him the year before when he only got 72 carries, he got six touchdowns in those 72 total carries. He can get the job done. I think Hunt will help him there. And I do expect him to have maybe not 18 carries, but I expect him to be the main goal.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, let me put you in the spot here then hunt in the 8th or where in the 4th because that's where they're going.

[Jason Moore]

I would take Hunt, I'll take Ware. I think both are good values. I would take.

[Andy Holloway]

See, I would lean the where side. I think any of these battle situations, there's high upside, high risk. Same situation with draftsy Carlos Hyde in case something goes sideways there.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Problem. Same situation with P. Ryan and Rob Kelly. Same situation here with these two backs. And it could pay off. In spades. Because if you draft Spencer Ware and you get him late and he is a bell cow because, hey, they're going to use Kareem Hunt more in the passing game. They're going to give the, you know, positive regression to, you know, the touchdowns for Spencer Ware. It's interesting, it's an interesting piece of the puzzle. This is not a very good offensive team statistically last year, despite being 12 and 4, you know, 19th in the league in passing yardage, 15th and rushing yardage. So from a fantasy perspective, not as good as what they, you know, we're able to do in, in actuality and in winning these games. Now, Travis Kelsey was a headliner in fantasy last year. Led tight end, 70 plus yards a game. One of the things I thought would be interesting to look at is how did Travis Kelsey perform when Tyree Kill had big games? Okay, so I went and looked and said, hey, look, how many games did tyree kill have 50 or more receiving yards and there were six of them. Well, in those games, Travis Kelsey averaged 17 fantasy points a game as opposed to 11.9 in games where he did not pop, where Tyreek Hill did not have big games. So it didn't negatively impact Kelsey to further involve Tyree Kill in the offense. Now Hill, snap percentages, those things are going up for him this year. All the reports out of camp is that he's taken his game to the, to the next level. Very precise route runner, but you're still Alex Smith's number one.

[Mike Wright]

Sure I was. What I looked at for Travis Kelsey was how was, how was, how is he performing with and without Macklin? Because the first nine games of the season, Travis Kelsey was giving you an average of five receptions and 52 yards. That's fine for a tight end. For a fantasy tight end, that's not fine for a tight end that's going to be drafted in the third round. It's his run which was, were games 10 through 15 that started when Macklin went out and then that's when three or Macklin missed three of those four straight hundred yard games. Macklin second game back though he had, Macklin had a big game and Travis Kelsey was back down to 3 for 41. I mean it's, I think there was a pretty strong correlation. So the question will be is, is there a, a number two? Not like Tyree Kill, obviously, but he's the one. Like can Chris Conley or Albert Wilson step up or is, have they finally made the transition to say, okay, Travis Kelsey is going to be, be the Guy that we're going to give 10 targets.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think you have to spend an extended amount of time talking about the wide receiver. Two in Kansas City. That may be the question mark that we can't answer. But you have to approach that the same way we've approached it the past few years. It was Macklin and somebody else that would score every once in a while. That's how I view it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You've got two weapons there. It's Kelsey and Tyree Kill, and that's pretty much it. And the reality for Tyree Kill is I think he's going to be more involved than we have currently this off season. Expected him to be. The four games that Macklin missed, he had seven receptions a game. I don't expect him. I mean, that would, you know, that's a pace of what, 112 receptions. That's not going to happen. But he's got the talent every time he touches the ball to take one to the house. So.

[Mike Wright]

And the last thing I'll say for Kelsey, for those who are, you're like, I'm drafting Travis Kelsey in the third and the fourth round. Here's his touchdowns of his career. Five, five, four.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm not.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not a. He does not score.

[Mike Wright]

So it just. I'm just. I love Kelsey. I love the talent. I'm. I'm with him. I'm with Zeus. But just saying, be careful where you are. Spending a draft pick on Travis Kelsey.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So before we. Before we get to the next team, the Raiders, we definitely want to thank Pristine Auction. We gave him a shout out earlier for the awesome signed Jake Butt jersey. You can get anything you want. We also had a. We had a patron send us the Mike Tyson punch out framed with the NES controller.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's incredible. But I just wanted to point out, like, that's the level of items that are on Pristine Auction.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the depth.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Thank you. The depth. Jake Butt, he's. This guy has done nothing in the NFL.

[Jason Moore]

He's an injured rookie, but he looks.

[Andy Holloway]

Great on the wall.

[Mike Wright]

He looks fantastic.

[Andy Holloway]

And Tyreek Hill, aforementioned. We just gave away a signed and autographed. See?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Doubled up. He did it two times. No signed Tyreek Hill jersey. We just sent it out to a listener who won one of our recent contests. We picked that up on pristineauction.com. these guys are the absolute leaders. And they just added a new feature. If you pick up a jersey on there, you have the option of adding custom framing to that jersey. So if you pick up that stalwart favorite player of all time, you can just have them custom frame it. It's cheaper and easier than having you take it down to the local framing shop.

[Mike Wright]

They may make it look pristine.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I see what you did there. So check them out. P R I S T I n e auction.com Sign up for free and let them know the footballers sent you.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, and let them know about our punny comments. The Raiders were 12 and 4 as well. The Raiders, Derek Carr leading the ship, leading the charge, Freshly paid. A team that lost Latavius Murray, A team that gained Marshawn Lynch.

[Jason Moore]

They lose Latavius 12 touchdowns and one.

[Andy Holloway]

Of the best short yardage backs in the league. When you start to dig into the numbers on Latavius Murray.

[Jason Moore]

But is he or was it the line?

[Andy Holloway]

Wow. That is the question. Jared Cook also joining the franchise. Cordero Patterson is on board as well. One of the better offensive lines in the league obviously protected David Carr or Derek Carr. Well. And no one protected David Carr. No, never did.

[Jason Moore]

Sorry.

[Andy Holloway]

So Marshawn is back.

[Mike Wright]

He is.

[Andy Holloway]

I also think there's a great wide receiver conundrum in Oakland because you have the reality that yet again Michael Crabtree outscored Amari Cooper 192 to 185 in the back half of the year. Amari Cooper was about eight points better. But these guys, they don't go next to each other in the draft. And so, you know, what is the decision making process for a fantasy owner? I mean, Jason, you picked up Amari Cooper early in a best ball league. You're waiting for him to have that double digit touchdown year. And obviously that is well within the realm of possibilities. He's super talented, he's missed on a few opportunities. It seems like he should be the guy to go to. And yet Seth Roberts gets those end zone targets for some reason despite dropping a bunch.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was in a best ball league. And if, you know, if you've had Amari Cooper, you have experienced the up and down nature. So I'm more fine with him there than in a redraft league because he does have a tendency to disappear. He'll have the major booms and the busts.

[Andy Holloway]

I just wanted to bring some stats to what you're saying. 63% of the time Michael Crabtree was a one or a two. 43% of the time Amari Cooper was a one or a two. So that's the boomer bust thing you're talking about.

[Jason Moore]

Right. But one of the things that I really like when I look at Cooper, obviously he's extremely talented and I don't usually like drafting guys where the.

[Mike Wright]

At their ceiling.

[Jason Moore]

At their ceiling, where it's like, okay, if he does what, you know, we hope he does, then he's just matching the draft price. So that gives me hesitation in redraft. That being said, last year, so rookie year, zero red zone targets, right? Last year seven. Now he scored zero touchdowns, but he also led the league tied with Brandon lefell with four pass interference calls in the end zone. So that's four robbed. I mean, they threw him the ball in the end zone four times where, you know, he didn't have the opportunity to catch it. And the team got the ball at the one yard line and go figure. Latavius Murray had 12 touchdowns. He also caught a touchdown at the very back of the end zone where his toe hit the white line. And it was ruled out. If you, I mean, obviously you can't just be like, well, give him those five touchdowns. But those were opportunities that were there. And had he, you know, if you had added five touchdowns to his numbers last year, where would he draft it?

[Mike Wright]

He would be fantastic. But so in the ultimate draft kit, we teamed up with Matt harmon, writer for NFL.com because he, he does this study called the reception perception, where he looks at how does a receiver do just running routes? Are they actually a good wide receiver? And he also measures things like contested catch rate. Well, Amari Cooper's contested catch rate bad. And he. So he put out the hypothesis that perhaps this is why when you're talking about those 10 zone targets, that Amari Cooper is not getting them. Amari Cooper, senior year he had a 50% contested catch rate. That's, that's below average for college. Since being in the NFL, he is below the 38th percentile in contested catch rate. Meanwhile, Crabtree tied for, tied for third best last year with an 85% success rate for contested catches. And that's, that makes perfect sense. That's just a hypothesis right now. But when windows are tight in where you have nowhere to go and you can't just break away, I mean, that.

[Jason Moore]

I can make some sense.

[Andy Holloway]

He added 10 pounds of muscle. Like, I wonder if that's part of the motivation there is.

[Mike Wright]

Is that the report?

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, no. That's. Yeah, that's just the reality. If you see a picture of him as well, you'll see him. He's thick. I wonder if that's part of the equation. He wants to be more competitive on contested catches.

[Jason Moore]

That would make sense. It's a smart hypothesis, but I think we can rule out that hypothesis rather quickly, considering he. That David Carr. Derek Carr still throws the ball an ungodly amount to Seth Roberts, who, if you. Does Seth Roberts know how to catch the ball? Stop.

[Mike Wright]

Carr thinks he does.

[Jason Moore]

Stop throwing to Seth Roberts.

[Mike Wright]

We can say what we want.

[Jason Moore]

But I had someone tweet me and be like, oh, but Seth Roberts left this year. And I was so excited for a second. I was like, what, did I miss that? No, he's still there.

[Mike Wright]

And just to point out, for Michael Crabtree, yes, he was. He was a wide receiver 1 or 2, 63% of the time. And he actually, he was quite safe. I mean, you're talking. He was. He busted less on a weekly basis, and we're saying a wide receiver four or worse. He busted less than Julio Jones and Mike Evans.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So, I mean, he was a great pick. He's still going way too late in drafts. I don't see what. Why drafters are just putting everything on Amari Cooper on this projection. Meanwhile, Crabtree's over here. Like, I've been doing it for two years now with the Raiders. What do I have to do?

[Andy Holloway]

Amari Cooper is going in the second round. Michael Crabtree in the fifth round.

[Jason Moore]

He's a great value. Draft Michael Crabtree and be cautious with Cooper. I mean, that's. That's. If you're in a redraft league, that's the best advice.

[Mike Wright]

If it fell this way, are you okay having both of them on your team?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Probably not. And part of that is what we're going to get into. Now, I want to talk about Derek Carr because I think this show in, in particular is lower on Derek Carr than the populace.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Than the common thought, than the voice of public opinion who happily drafts Derek Carr in the. But is he.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, but he's so young and he's been so good and he's only going to get better.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you could be right. But I don't think he's the sixth quarterback off the board.

[Jason Moore]

No, he is the sixth quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I don't think he should be.

[Mike Wright]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

And the reality is that, yes, he missed the game at the end of the year and the efficiency, the lack of interceptions, the. What your eyes told you is how good of a quarterback he is. But in fantasy, he had some. You know, he didn't really improve on the core fantasy numbers last year other than reducing mistakes. And so I like Derek Carr, but I think it would be a jump to call this a super prolific offense yet. And that adds to the question of Crabtree plus Cooper. Do you want them both on your team? You know, sixth in the league in rushing yards, middle of the pack in passing yards, 13th in the league. That's good. But it's not like Green Bay where you're saying, okay, I can have Jordy Nelson and I can put devonte Adams and I don't even think twice about it. I think we all want Oakland to be that and we all love rooting for this team. They're young, they're fun, they're exciting, they have a great opportunity, but I just don't. I think people are jumping the gun. Like, we have kind of a warning there for Derek Carr purchasers that look, you might want a refund by mid season if you, if you lock yourself into Derek Carr with an early draft pick. That might not be your best case scenario in the draft.

[Mike Wright]

Derek Carr's final four games, final four division games, he scored 11 or fewer fantasy points per game. He didn't get to play Denver the second time, but the first time he played them, he put up seven and a half points. I mean, it was bad. And guess what? You have to play all those teams two times. Yeah. So it's the Chargers and the Chargers last year. I mean, they get Jason Verrett back. I mean, they're a solid pass defense. The Chiefs are well known, the Broncos are well known. It's.

[Andy Holloway]

It's not the easiest division to play quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Right. And I'm not one to say, well, okay, you have. I'm not going to let a division completely scare me off. But, but under 11 points or under in every one of those last games, I mean, that's, that's brutal.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we do need to jump into the Broncos. Okay, but before I do that, I want to just quickly talk about Marshawn Lynch.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Latavius Murray last year was an RB1 or two, 64% of the time in that offense, 12 touchdowns. We've talked about that a lot. When you look at a breakdown of how the carries are going to go, if you look at last year, Murray had 195 and both of the other guys, Jalen, Richard, Deandre Washington were in the 80s. I think that's the breakdown you're going to see this year. Around 200 to 220 carries is how I'd break down Marshawn lynch with about 80 to 90 carries for the other two guys.

[Mike Wright]

Despite the reports that say they want him under 200.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Despite the Reports that they may manage him saying he's going to be around 200 to 220. That's what I think the realistic truth is about Marshawn Lynch. If you're looking at that equation 64% of the time in RB1 or 2, do you think Marshawn lynch beats that number that Latavius Murray set last year or is excitement for lynch kind of like unwarned?

[Jason Moore]

I think percent of games that he's going to play, I would say he beats that number. I expect he's always been a good goal line back. He's got a great offensive line in front of him and I think he's going to be put in situations to succeed. The worry with him being, you know that he was. He left after having a back injury and he is older, he's 31. The worry is how many games is he going to play. And so but percent of games played I think he'll be great. I just worry about that. And since I'm saying you worry about Marshawn lynch, there's a lot of people out there that say great sleeper candidate DeAndre Washington. And I was. DeAndre Washington was one of my favorite prospects coming out last year, but I got.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm a Jalen Richard guy.

[Jason Moore]

See here's. I got to throw cold water on both because okay, Marshawn lynch goes down. Is it. There's DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. Neither one of them is taking over. And oh, you. You could be wrong with both and it could be Elijah Hood, the 230 pound back getting all the goal line work. So there's too many guys there to say that there is a handcuff. There is no Marshawn lynch handcuff.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, Denver, let's talk about the Broncos and let's start in the passing game. I mean we know that there's a battle Paxton Lynch, Trevor Simeon for the quarterback position. I think it's going to be tough sledding for both guys again this year. Now, Simeon had flashes. He had these big games. He could end up being the guy in control of that offense. But I want to talk first about the wide receivers because I think, I think it's hard for people to think about Demaryius Thomas and how they want to think about him. I went back and looked over the last three years. The percentage that he was in that wide receiver one range the last two years was 18%. Each of the last two years going back to 2014, he was up at 38%. So you're saying kind of like, okay, he's not prolific. He doesn't always finish as a wide receiver. 1. Yet in the last three years, he ranks third best in all of football with 66% of the time being a wide receiver 1 or 2. Only behind Antonio Brown. Only behind Oda Beckham Jr. Here's the most consistent player in football over the last three years at the wide receiver position. You know, the reception totals will be up there. I like taking the flyer on him because I feel like a couple more touchdowns drop his way. All of a sudden he's a top 10 bat wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. His floor is so high and he's so safe for those early rounds. I really, I really like Demarius Thomas and I think he is a little bit safer than Sanders not knowing the quarterback situation because if Paxton lynch comes in, he will rely a little bit more on Damaris Thomas. That being said, I.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you like the ADP of 311?

[Jason Moore]

I do. I mean, you like the man. You're getting them at the three, four turn. And I think that's great value for a guy that's outproduced where he's being drafted at the last several years and is still in his prime.

[Mike Wright]

I think that the, the problem that fantasy players have with Thomas is almost his perception. I was. He's just, he's too safe. Like, because the, and I know that sounds ridiculous, but it's. What I mean by that is the touchdowns are gone. Like since Peyton Manning, those, those monster gears with Manning, the touchdowns have just absolutely disappeared. The yardage is still there. So it's, it's just safe. You know, it's a, it's a nice floor, but the ceiling is gone.

[Jason Moore]

He doesn't have the quarterback to finish as a wide receiver. 5. It's not going to happen. He, you know, out of the question.

[Mike Wright]

But I want him on my team.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

It's hard. He plays 16 games too. Five straight years of 16 games. It's hard for me to say the ceiling is completely gone when he had, you know, 10, 14, 11 touchdowns with Manning. Yeah, but you do have players that. That's enough. That's the hardest to predict total there. And if you give a guy 105 receptions, 95 receptions, I still think that possibility exists. But let's, let's step back from that. The way that I've looked at Demaryius Thomas is to kind of add to what you're saying is I've looked at him as a, you know, a very tall Jarvis Landry now because touchdown totals aren't there for Landry.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But he's so safe. Like people look at Jarvis Lander, you say, okay, I got a safe guy on my roster. I can throw him in at wide receiver too. Darius Thomas is my favorite wide receiver too.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's fair. I think that him dropping to 311, I mean, that's. That's outrageous for a player who.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that. That's prior range. Do you want prior? Do you want Demarious Thomas?

[Jason Moore]

Demarius Thomas?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Thomas for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Do you want Keenan Allen or Demarius Thomas?

[Jason Moore]

Demarius Thomas.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

A perfect example. You're going, oh, you've got this upside potential if he stays healthy with Keenan Allen, who also isn't a touchdown guy.

[Andy Holloway]

But where is the Demarious Thomas one handed camp catch to help him compete with Terrell Pryor? That's right. That hurts right until the draft end.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk. You guys want to talk running backs?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I do. And right in front of the running backs. I want to bring up the offensive line because the offensive line was a huge.

[Andy Holloway]

I was trying to follow along.

[Mike Wright]

Who are you drafting?

[Andy Holloway]

No, they're right in front of.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I'm saying. Right in front of the running backs. I mean, I guess technically if.

[Mike Wright]

And you destroyed my pristine pun. And you're going to allow that to fly.

[Jason Moore]

That was beautiful. It was sweet music. So here's.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a different bar. Okay. The high jump. The high jump level is set.

[Mike Wright]

His is a step.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, right.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, both of yours is low, but his is lower.

[Jason Moore]

When I think about the teams, this office parallel bars that have improved their offensive line the most. You know, the Browns come to everybody's mind. I think some of the health with the Chargers until yesterday seemed like they had improved, but the Broncos, despite the fact that for some reason, and maybe it's because the current trade for Alan Barber that just happened was before the rankings Pro Football Focus lowered them one spot in their projected rankings for this year. But I don't get it because, I mean, you added ron Leary, the 22nd ranked, you know, guard. You added Alan Barber, who was the 16th ranked guy. You got rid of a 40th ranked guy. And then they got the number one offensive tackle in the draft, the guy that they wanted. Nobody else had gone when they drafted Garrett Bowles. That offensive line was a major problem last year. You could see it every time you watch the game and they've improved it. So the running game should be able to open up a little bit. More for CJ Anderson and maybe Jamal Charles.

[Mike Wright]

You better keep that down.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, we might as well throw Steven Ridley in there, too.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Just have a little fun. Look, C.J. anderson, we all know the story started last year for the first six weeks was an RB1 or an RB2 got hurt. That's been the case. Mike loves it because, I mean, Mike loves him because when you see him on film, he gets the job done. He's heavily involved. He can catch the ball a little bit. A lot of. There's a really big Matt Kelly article that came out just destroying CJ Anderson.

[Mike Wright]

To be fair, Matt Kelly hates CJ Anderson and part of his defense is, well, look at the. Look at the backups.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Devonte Booker stinks.

[Andy Holloway]

Jamal Charles is Devonte Booker's hurt.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

This. The article became up before that. But Booker, even when healthy, is not good. Jamal Charles is old. Busted.

[Jason Moore]

Who?

[Mike Wright]

D'Angelo Henderson. I mean, it's. It's C.J. anderson's job. I mean, it's. His job is very, very safe. It's. And I, I can't argue the health question, but when he's on the field, he produces. He was the RB11 when he went out after week seven. And it's. I don't see. Yesterday we talked why you wouldn't draft him. Honestly, even with the injuries, I still want him on my team.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

And running back, we know position scarcity, you need them on your roster. Yesterday we talked about LeGarrett blunt. They're going back to back in fantasy drafts. Put me in your. You know, who would you take? You're staring those two guys down. Are you high enough on Blunt with the volume that we're talking about? Or do you take C.J. anderson because the passing game involvement.

[Mike Wright]

It would be Anderson.

[Andy Holloway]

What about Abdullah, one of your guys or Jay Anderson, two of your guys. They're 506, 509 right now.

[Mike Wright]

I think I would go Abdullah then. And if I'm. If I'm staring down both of them, I'm going to go Abdullah.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Abdullah's upside where we're going to talk or we've already talked Lions. But Abdullah, I mean, the more the reports keep coming out for Abdullah, if you want to hit the train sound for him because what was it yesterday that he's the running back coach has anointed saying he'll be our featured back.

[Andy Holloway]

Any other fantasy surprises you expect from this team? Do you still think Emmanuel Sanders is a value?

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Is Jake Butt breaking out?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Mike Wright]

No. And Jake Butt is long term is going to be a good player. He only fell in the draft because of injuries. But Cecil Lammy, who's very connected to the Broncos, he said that the tight end who is standing out, it's AJ Derby. So if you want to get. You want to roll around in the mud and just get absolutely filthy with.

[Jason Moore]

Your tight end, they don't throw to the tight end.

[Mike Wright]

Just saying that.

[Andy Holloway]

Someone to watch in preseason.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. AJ Derby is the one to keep an eye on.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk about the Los Angeles.

[Jason Moore]

There we go.

[Andy Holloway]

Los Angeles charges 5 and 11 last year. I want to talk about Keenan Allen right out of the gate.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Last year we know that the Chargers were devastated by injury. I think that a lot of fantasy owners are giving them a pass on that season because of that. Because we've seen, you know, Philip rivers the last five years. He said three times inside the top 10. But let's talk about Keenan Allen. Every report it's glowing. Full speed. Right. Quick and explosive is the quote. Back to pre injury form is the narrative. So one, do you buy it? And two, what is buying it mean in terms of balancing wanting him on your roster and waiting in drafts to get him?

[Mike Wright]

So I want him on my team. It's. It's really tough because his ADP404 like Jason was talking about. I mean, you're not wanting to draft a guy at his ceiling. I don't think 404 is drafting Keenan Allen at his ceiling, but there's a ton of risk. There's a ton of risk. However, I just want to point out Keenan Allen. This is obviously two years ago, but when Matt Harmon did his reception perception on Keenan Allen, his success in running routes against man coverage top 3%, he. His contested catch rate that season was 82.6%. That was better than Antonio Brown's last year. And that's on one more contested target. I mean, he's, he is really, really, really good. I mean, he is an excellent wide receiver. Maybe the, the, the upside, because you want like the Terrell Pryor, the big super sexy touchdowns. That's not Keenan Allen's game. But in short and intermediate, he is absolutely devastating to opposing defenses. But I mean, in the fourth round, I'm okay going in on that and I know you guys are not.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just difficult to reconcile limited success like that, limited metrics. Where never had a year where he had more than 77 receptions to finish the season, eight touchdowns. He did have that, but that's going back to 2013. Right. So since then 4, 4 0. It's a long time to wait on that potential. Now I believe in the competitor that Keenan Allen is. I believe in the quarterback. You talk about the difference between Demary Thomas and Keenan Allen. You've got Philip Rivers throwing them the ball. Those are great signs. You also have Mike Williams injury. We don't even know if Williams is going to play in 2017. So every opportunity is there for Keenan Allen. It's a risk reward thing. I'd love him in the fifth round. I love him in the sixth round. It's. He's. He, you know, Bonafide steel at that rate. I just don't know if I'm willing to jump in yet. But the reports are positive. Maybe I'll be on board.

[Mike Wright]

Have you seen that beard?

[Andy Holloway]

The beard's pretty good.

[Mike Wright]

It's pretty good.

[Jason Moore]

The beard is back.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to talk to wrap that around his knees. Keep him safe.

[Jason Moore]

I want to talk about the head coach.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

For a second because I think it reflects.

[Andy Holloway]

Where are you drafting him?

[Jason Moore]

Melvin Gordon? I'm drafting. Yeah. If you're playing ESPN and you've got the head coach position, I think the Chargers are going to be all right. But Anthony Lynn, if you remember him when he was so he was a running back then he was a running backs coach forever. Then he took over the last few years as offensive coordinator and assistant head coach for the Buffalo Bills. Wherever he has gone, the running game is great. Last year the Bills running game was as good as it could get. They were. They were the best. They were most efficient. They were the tops. Now he goes to a team where when they drafted Mike Williams, to me, I thought I made a big mark on my notes when I was. When I was watching that. That said they want to run the ball. I know that might seem weird with drafting a wide receiver, but Mike Williams was the best run blocking receiver I've seen in a long time. They bring in Anthony Lynn and I mean you. Those guys make such a difference in the running game and nobody knows that better than a longtime running back. Running backs coach who comes in. I think the offense will be prolific. But this is what, you know, I've said Melvin Gordon has the highest potential to bust in the first round because of his inefficiency. But I also see the upside with Melvin Gordon. He was locked and loaded as one of the best players last year. He finished the year as the seventh best running back despite not playing three games. With Anthony Lynn coming in in a tough division, I think they're going to run the ball more. Give Melvin Gordon all the opportunity. And I will be drafting Melvin Gordon this year, despite what I've said about the, about his risk.

[Mike Wright]

All right. And I see the upside as well. But here's my problem with Melvin Gordon. There was 11 running backs last year that had 250 or more carries. Nine of those had over a thousand yards. Because when you have 250 carries, getting 1,000 yards should be easy.

[Andy Holloway]

Unless you're Todd Gurley.

[Mike Wright]

Unless you're Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon. Now, what's the. What saved Melvin Gordon's fantasy season was touchdowns. He had five touchdowns from the one yard line. Now, are those going to happen again? I don't know. And you think, well, he's Melvin Gordon in the receiving game. Well, for running backs, he was 23rd in receptions and he had 33 receptions. And here are two other guys that also had 33 receptions. I'm going to give you their yards. Latavius Murray, 33 receptions, 264 receiving yards. Spencer Ware, 447 receiving yards. I know that's fine against where that's.

[Jason Moore]

He was historically, maybe that's not fair.

[Mike Wright]

But I gave you Latavius Murray and Melvin Gordon, 192. So Latavius Murray, the, the rumbling, fumbling Latavius Murray was able to get 50 more receiving yards on the exact same reception. Is Melvin Gordon actually good?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, he is actually good. And you think so, too. You ranked him number nine, so we all have him inside of our top 10. His opportunity mixed with the offense is great. Brandon Oliver is just a backup. I mean, Phil Jeffers is excited about Brandon Oliver. Come on. Come on, Mike. That's ridiculous. Brandon Oliver is a backup. He has it printed on his birth certificate and that's fine.

[Mike Wright]

But Melvin Gordon had no backup last year.

[Andy Holloway]

It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter.

[Mike Wright]

Okay?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm telling you. Look, if you don't believe that you need to move him because you've got him very high in your rankings.

[Mike Wright]

Don't, don't.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think you need. I don't think you need to throw so much shade on Melvin Gordon. I don't want to worry people about that. But here, here's what I want people to know, too, as we, as we close out today's show and we get into the NFC west tomorrow. If you want to look, we're hitting some of the fantasy highlights, really. The head, the headlines, Melvin Gordon, the storylines. Yes. Mike's number nine, running back, Melvin Gordon, the storylines from some of these teams. You're probably saying, hey, why didn't you talk about this guy? Why isn't Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, We've got a lot of breakdowns on individual players. If you want to see all of that, go to the website. Go check out the fantasy footballers.com check out the ultimate draft kit, 100 plus player profiles. We talk about these players on a one to one basis and you can see all of our stat projections, all of the storylines that we see from each and every one of these teams see interesting things. Look, Tyrell Williams, we didn't talk a lot about him. Sleeper alert. Tyrell Williams was a wide receiver. One or two, the same amount as DT or prior. DT or prior, both third round picks. Tyrone Williams is a ninth round pick. There's a nugget for your fantasy roster. Okay. And we get into all of that with all these different players in the Ultimate Draft Kit atultimatedraftkit.com and on the show, obviously over the next month we're going to be talking about all of our sleepers, breakouts, busts. Probably not about Melvin Gordon anymore because Mike's going to drive me crazy if we talk about him again. I do have my number four though, so that would be why Andy loves sub. No, I just like player and you like guys that are. He was way too healthy for you. So yeah, I would have thought Melvin.

[Jason Moore]

Gordon right in the middle.

[Andy Holloway]

I would have thought if Melvin Gordon committed himself like he did last year to be hurt for that last game of the year, but I'd move him up. He did that for you, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

It's not enough. I need more.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that why he's number nine instead of 900?

[Mike Wright]

I need more missed games.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, he does play for the.

[Jason Moore]

Chargers, so there's a good chance.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, that is it for today's podcast. I want to remind everybody out there if you are looking to get into some of those awesome best ball leagues, there's no better place to play than playdraft.com ballers. You get a free paid entry into a best ball league. Mike, every single week is doing a live draft with listeners of the show. Best ball is a fun way to basically mock draft for your redraft year, plus win some cash.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

It's not a mock fun. It's not a mock.

[Mike Wright]

It's real.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's a double. You get, you get to play, but you also get to see where people are falling.

[Jason Moore]

It's a real to play and practice same time. And then every Friday we're giving a tip, tip or two on how to play that format, so.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, thanks for listening. Thanks for tuning in. We'll catch you in the morning. See you later.

[Mike Wright]

See you tomorrow.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football team community on jointhefoot. Com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.