Fantasy Football 2017 - Hype Train + NFC South Breakdown

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Episode: Fantasy Football 2017 - Hype Train + NFC South Breakdown
Release Date: July 27, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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1. Introduction and Show Updates

The episode kicks off with the hosts sharing updates about their podcast schedule. They announce an increase in frequency, moving to a five-times-a-week format starting the following week, with even more content available for premium members at joinhefoot.com.

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2. Hype Train: Offseason Headlines and Player Analysis

a. Kenneth Dixon Injury and Ravens RB Situation ([02:00] - [08:41]) The hosts discuss the recent injury news regarding Ravens' running back Kenneth Dixon, who underwent medial meniscus surgery and is now out for the season. This development raises questions about the depth of the Ravens' backfield.

• Jason Moore: “I would take Terrence West around the fifth [round].” ([06:06])
• Mike Wright: “Terrence West just has the opportunity.” ([05:19])

They debate the potential rise in value for Terrence West and Danny Woodhead, considering the Ravens' current roster moves, including the signing of Bobby Rainey.

b. Ryan Grant and Redskin Report on Running Back Depth ([12:00] - [13:16]) Ryan Grant is highlighted as a potential over-the-radar pickup due to positive reports from Washington's WR coach Ike Hilliard. The hosts weigh in on whether Grant will outperform Josh Dachshund and argue that defeating contenders like Laquan Treadwell requires active participation.

• Andy Holloway: “If you're in a deeper dynasty league... you could have picked them up for $0.” ([12:14])

c. John Brown's Conditioning and Fantasy Impact ([13:22] - [14:31]) John Brown's offseason conditioning is discussed, with reports indicating he bulked up to 185 pounds. The hosts consider whether this physical improvement translates to better on-field performance and increased fantasy value.

• Jason Moore: “He is still coming at a discount on the ADP.” ([14:10])

d. Marshawn Lynch's Usage with the Raiders ([14:38] - [16:11]) Marshawn Lynch’s potential limitations on carries due to team strategy are debated. The hosts reflect on Lynch's role compared to Latavius Murray and discuss the implications for his fantasy value.

• Mike Wright: “If Lynch is able to play 16 and he's only getting 195, that's...” ([08:29])

e. Wendell Smallwood and NFL Panthers RB Depth ([16:16] - [19:25]) The potential role of Wendell Smallwood with the Eagles is evaluated, along with broader discussions about the Panthers' RB depth and the possibility of team roster cuts affecting fantasy options.

• Andy Holloway: “Do you buy the hype or not?” ([16:40])

f. John Brown and Defensive Schemes ([10:18] - [11:49]) Duke Johnson’s role as a slot receiver is analyzed, with the consensus that there isn't significant hype around his increased usage.

• Andy Holloway: “I don’t buy the hype.” ([10:18])

g. Kelvin Benjamin’s Declining ADP ([56:20] - [58:39]) Kelvin Benjamin's falling draft positions are humorously compared to paying or ignoring a parking ticket, emphasizing his undervalued status despite potential upside.

• Mike Wright: “Kelvin Benjamin is falling. He made weight.” ([56:20])

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3. NFC South Breakdown: Team and Player Evaluations

a. Atlanta Falcons ([23:05] - [31:22]) The Falcons' offense is dissected, focusing on Matt Ryan's consistency and potential regression from his career-high performance last season. The running backs, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, are analyzed for their PPR (points per reception) potential.

• Jason Moore: “I believe Matt Ryan is good enough to enter that echelon with this offense.” ([26:00])
• Andy Holloway: “Matt Ryan is a decent quarterback. Not one of those...” ([31:45])

b. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ([31:22] - [40:54]) The Buccaneers receive a critical evaluation, particularly focusing on Jameis Winston's inconsistent performance and the questionable offensive strategy despite adding high-profile players like DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin.

• Jason Moore: “I need help, guys. Or like some medicine.” ([34:44])
• Andy Holloway: “The passing game, as we saw in the playoffs last year...” ([37:49])

c. New Orleans Saints ([41:48] - [47:30]) The Saints' running back situation, featuring Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, and Alvin Kamara, is analyzed. The discussion centers on the balance between Ingram's efficiency and Peterson's high-risk, high-reward potential.

• Jason Moore: “I believe in him for the future.” ([26:05])

d. Carolina Panthers ([48:33] - [55:44]) The Panthers' offensive philosophy changes with the addition of Christian McCaffrey are discussed, alongside concerns about Cam Newton's evolving role and fantasy viability.

• Jason Moore: “He [Christian McCaffrey] could make Cam Newton more fantasy relevant.” ([50:54])
• Andy Holloway: “Cam Newton has not had great success as a high-level passer.” ([54:05])

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4. Key Takeaways and Fantasy Implications

• Terrence West vs. Danny Woodhead: With Kenneth Dixon's injury, drafting Terrence West in the fifth round is recommended, while Danny Woodhead remains a solid PPR option.

• John Brown: Bulked up and potentially more effective, John Brown remains undervalued and is considered a sleeper pick.

• Matt Ryan: Although last season saw a spike in performance, a slight regression is expected, placing him slightly lower in quarterback rankings.

• Mike Evans: While Evans remains a consistent target, his role and target distribution may limit his top-tier fantasy value.

• Mark Ingram vs. Adrian Peterson: Ingram is viewed as a safer fantasy back, whereas Peterson is a high-risk, high-reward option based on age and injury history.

• Cam Newton: Projected as a boom-or-bust QB with limited fantasy reliability despite a favorable schedule.

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Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore: “I would take Terrence West around the fifth [round].” ([06:06])

• Andy Holloway: “If you're in a deeper dynasty league... you could have picked them up for $0.” ([12:14])

• Mike Wright: “Kelvin Benjamin is falling. He made weight.” ([56:20])

• Jason Moore: “I believe Matt Ryan is good enough to enter that echelon with this offense.” ([26:00])

• Andy Holloway: “The passing game, as we saw in the playoffs last year...” ([37:49])

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Conclusion

The episode provides an in-depth analysis of current NFL offseason news, focusing on player evaluations and their implications for fantasy football. The hosts offer strategic insights into drafting decisions, emphasizing value picks and cautioning against overhyped players. Their breakdown of the NFC South teams further equips listeners with the knowledge needed to navigate the upcoming fantasy football season successfully.

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Connect with the Fantasy Footballers:

• Website: joinhefoot.com
• Twitter: @FFballers

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Before we get started today, wanted to tell you about the Secret to Victory, a new podcast from Gatorade and Gimlet Creative about how the best athletes in the world use defeat to fuel a win. This week you'll hear from NBA star Karl Anthony Towns on how blowing the last game of an almost perfect college season wasn't the end, but it better prepared him for an NBA career. Visit Gatorade.com podcast to listen now or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, this is Willie Sneed with the.

[Andy Holloway]

New Orleans Saints and you're listening to.

[Jason Moore]

The Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

Foreign to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, coming to you from the Play Draft Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Ah, welcome to the Show. It's Thursday, July 27th. Jason Moore is here.

[Andy Holloway]

I am. I am as excited as everyone out there to get to August. So many training camps starting this week, but next week starting on Tuesday. We're going every day.

[Jason Moore]

Mike is here.

[Andy Holloway]

Hello. Howdy, folks.

[Jason Moore]

It's me, Alex Smith, just out for my mail. I'm Andy Holloway. I'm here as well.

[Mike Wright]

Alex Smith wears slippers when he picks up his mail.

[Andy Holloway]

And capris, apparently, and still has a.

[Jason Moore]

Subscription to the local newspaper.

[Mike Wright]

To the paper. Someone tweeted that picture at me where Alex Smith had the capris on my. Was it with fashion forward Alex Smith? What's happening right now?

[Jason Moore]

Alex Smith is the coolest person on the face. He's shattering the mold for me. He's someone I look up to.

[Mike Wright]

That makes sense.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome into the podcast. We're back again. You can find us on TwitterFFballers today. We have a great show planned for you. We have the Hype train back in the building. A great quick question based on the Kenneth Dixon news that broke yesterday. Broke might be the wrong word for Kenneth Dixon.

[Andy Holloway]

It tore yesterday.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The news tore. Is that what you said?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think that's the correct pronunciation.

[Jason Moore]

And then we have what the NFC south divisional breakdown on the podcast today. So going to be a lot of fun. I do want to remind you we have a giveaway and the time to enter is. Well, it's almost gone here. We have five days left as of when we record this. So you have a couple days to get in there. Foot clangiveaway.com we are giving away a Ty Hilton autograph jersey.

[Mike Wright]

It's madness.

[Jason Moore]

A Tyreek Hill autograph jersey.

[Mike Wright]

That's madness.

[Jason Moore]

A Tevin Coleman autograph jersey, guys. Madness.

[Mike Wright]

This is madness.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

That's crazy. And it's free to enter foot clangiveaway.com all right, quick question of the day. With Kenneth Dixon out for the season, by the way, he had his medial meniscus repaired on Tuesday, so he's gone.

[Mike Wright]

Say the hope was it was just going to be a trim, which is a, I believe, a six to eight week recovery process. But because of what he had to have done, he's now out for multiple months, and we'll miss the season.

[Jason Moore]

So the quick question has to do with Kenneth Dixon and Danny Woodhead and Terrence West. However, do you think that that's a situation where he goes into surgery thinking one thing, and when he wakes up, he finds out he's out for the year?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I don't think they knew prior.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Do you discover and then you wake up and you go, hey, look, I'm sorry, we found this. You're done.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think they put you under for a knee surgery, do they?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, they would put me under?

[Mike Wright]

Well, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

What do you think that they tell them right in the middle of the surgery?

[Andy Holloway]

I would.

[Mike Wright]

If I'm getting my knee worked on, I'm monitoring this situation.

[Jason Moore]

Do you have, like, a little display on the side that shows the amount of months missed as they proceed with.

[Mike Wright]

No, I'll tell you, I'm on WebMD making sure they do everything.

[Jason Moore]

All right, good.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't do that. Doctors help us out. There's plenty of doctors listening to the show. Tell us what his life experience was.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that would be good to know. However, we do know this. He's out for the year. And so now you have a flurry of questions about Terrence west and Danny Woodhead. So where would you draft these guys? Where would you draft Terence West? Where would you draft Danny Woodhead? I have my thoughts, but I want to hear yours, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So there's no way they don't replace the running back. And the question is, since. Since that happened, the Ravens did sign Bobby Rainey. Now, if that is their replacement, then I'm moving him way up. I still feel like Bobby Rainey is not going to be a replacement for. For what they were expecting out of Kenneth Dixon. So as of right now, I'm kind of holding still at where their value was, because it can really go one of two directions. Either they don't add another piece to the mix, in which case Terrence west goes up, Danny Woodhead goes significantly up to me, or it flips the other direction. And, you know, all of a sudden a Ryan Matthews who's released comes, or.

[Jason Moore]

I Feel like you're forgetting. I mean, they have players on the depth chart. Buck Allen moved up the depth chart with this move. He's still there. Javorius Allen's still there.

[Mike Wright]

He's still there. But if they have I.

[Jason Moore]

He's not going to be off that team. I think Buck Allen is going to be the.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're saying that you believe that this is. What is it?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I do. I believe it's going to be Terrence West, Danny Woodhead, Buck Allen, and then Bobby Rainey as a depth play. I do.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, Buck Allen couldn't get on the field last year. I don't know why they would move forward with him.

[Jason Moore]

He's 25 years old and they drafted him and he performed. He was put in a position on that team to at times catch 10 passes in a game.

[Mike Wright]

Two years ago. Well, yeah, I mean, he. He couldn't get on the field. They replaced him with Kenneth Dix.

[Jason Moore]

They're not going to add anybody because Talia Farrow is there too, and he's moved to, quote, unquote, fullback. But Talia Farrow was somebody who took snaps, too. They have enough gaps. And so that's the approach I'm taking. Obviously. I'm going to draft. I'm going to draft Terrence West a lot ahead of his adp. A lot ahead of his adp, which is ninth round, right now. When I looked at the adp, I saw guys in the sixth round that I would take west ahead of Derrick Henry. I would take him ahead of Paul Perkins. So that might be a hot take. Yeah, I would. I would take him right around the end. The middle or the. To the end of the fifth round, which is around Abdullah. I would take him around the Abdullah range.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, I missed. You're saying that this for Terrence west or for Danny Woodhead?

[Jason Moore]

That's for Terrence West.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I would take Terrence west around the fifth. In the fifth round.

[Mike Wright]

And I agree with Terrence West. I already had him as a low end running back, too. I bumped him up a little bit and he's now currently sitting as my RB 18 and a half point PPR. So I'm with Andy that I'm looking around that fifth round range, right around Amir Abdullah. I mean, that's a perfect area to.

[Jason Moore]

Now we drafted our Scotty Fishbowl team and we took investments of Terrence west and Darren McFadden late.

[Mike Wright]

And don't curse us.

[Jason Moore]

They could be paying off.

[Andy Holloway]

Come on, Reaper.

[Mike Wright]

Sorry.

[Jason Moore]

In terms of Danny Woodhead, I polled the Foot clan yesterday and asked him, you know, in a full point ppr, who would you rather take just straight up. And it was like 98% Danny Woodhead, full PPR.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to go with.

[Jason Moore]

You're in that boat as well.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The question would be half point. Do you have Woodhead or are you going West?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I'm definitely going Woodhead. Woodhead has shown it before. He is a special talent, whereas Kenneth Dixon is just.

[Mike Wright]

You mean Terrence West?

[Andy Holloway]

Terrence west just has the opportunity. My big worry with Danny Woodhead before this news was is Danny Woodhead, even though he's proven in his career that he can be good around the goal line, is he going to get that opportunity with the other backs there since he's still a little smaller with, you know, with this news, I think Woodhead has involved in the goal line. He bumps up and has 100 carries and in the passing game he's going to be utilized so much on the team.

[Jason Moore]

I completely agree. I said he may lead them in receiving in receptions.

[Mike Wright]

What's unfortunate here, at least fantasy wise, I mean it's unfortunate for Kenneth Dixon the person, but fantasy players, we've been, we've been watching Terrence west this entire off season as a huge value while Kenneth Dixon is being drafted ahead of him and will serve a four game suspension. And you knew that west was a starter for four games. Now I think that home leagues people are going to likely catch on that they should be drafting west higher than the ninth. So his adp, I expect to jump at least to the seventh.

[Jason Moore]

I want to throw this out there too. Kenneth Dixon, unfortunate for him missing that time. We had people ask, well, does that mean he doesn't have to serve a suspension? Well, no, he does because he has to serve that suspension when he would have been on an active roster.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Alright. Jason alluded to it earlier. We wanted to inform you about our podcast schedule as it is changing for the better. For the better. When August hits. We are a five times a week podcast, six if you're a jointhefoot.com member. But we're going every day and right now you're used to seeing those episodes pop in super, super early in the morning. And the reason that happens is because we're recording them really late the day before. Now with five shows a week, we're recording that morning and then releasing the pod. So they're going to come out a little later in the day than you're used to, but you're going to have five of them. To sift through. So if you, you know, you got the one from yesterday, you got the one from today, you've got, you might be driving to work, you might turn around, come home and go back to work to get them all in. You might extend your commute on purpose, work out longer. All right, there you go. Work out.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, let's save our bodies and our.

[Mike Wright]

Gas and the earth.

[Jason Moore]

Awesome.

[Mike Wright]

Triple stage.

[Jason Moore]

Our podcast saves the world.

[Mike Wright]

It's really the solution for all of humanity.

[Jason Moore]

I agree. There's just no debate about that. Perfect button for this. Let's talk hype train. Today's news and notes segment is the Hype Train, where we break down some of the off season headlines and whether we are buying into the hype because, man, hype is oh so tasty the offseason when you get ready for your draft. So let's start here with news that Duke Johnson is the leading candidate to replace Andrew Hawkins as the slot receiver in Cleveland. If Duke Johnson is the quote unquote slot receiver in Cleveland, does it matter?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I think Andrew Hawkins.

[Jason Moore]

Wasn'T a headline fantasy player, albeit like four years ago. He caught a few passes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Give us your answer, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

No, moving on.

[Jason Moore]

Good answer. That's mine too.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So I don't buy the hype. I'll share the other side of the story. I don't think that there is much hype here. If you actually look at the story, it's basically, oh, he's going to be used in the slot. He was using the slot, you know, two years ago as well.

[Mike Wright]

74 targets, both years. I mean, I don't see how playing the slot more quote unquote is going to drastically improve his targets.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I agree he might not improve his targets, but the quality of the targets for, from the backfield to the slot, those, those go up. It also allows him to be on the field in, you know, situations where, you know, it's a clear running down or something like that. So I think there's an advantage here. One of the things I looked at when this news came out was just the game splits of last year because I was blown away when he, you know, 74 targets is a lot of targets for a running back. But last year in the, in the five games he played with Robert Griffin the third, no shock there, he stunk. I mean, Robert Griffin could not, you know, accomplish those little dump off passes.

[Jason Moore]

That's the splits for everybody with Robert Griffin.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. But in the 11 games he played with all of the other, you know, numerous Cleveland Quarterbacks, he was over 10 points a game PPR last year. And if they're wanting to get more involved in the passing, a very late round guy with Robert Griffin out of the way.

[Mike Wright]

PPR only.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, completely agree. PPR only.

[Jason Moore]

He's Riddick light to me. Worse offense Riddick type of role. However, I have two words for you, Kaka. Oh, you know, affirmation of Isaiah Crowell as the lead dog.

[Mike Wright]

I like that.

[Jason Moore]

Not that we need it. It's two words for me. It is. You might put a dash, I would.

[Mike Wright]

Say, how would you, on him on a pia caca.

[Jason Moore]

Moving on. All right, Ryan Grant. I told these guys a couple days ago, pay attention to Ryan Grant. Redskin Redskins wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard continues to talk him up. He is running ahead of Josh Dachshund in OTAs heading into camp. Best pure route runner on the team, according to multiple reports from Washington. My takeaway here is, yes, I do buy the hype on Ryan Grant. I liked what I saw in limited work from him and I don't think that Josh Dachshund is going to be handed anything. So you've got to come out and prove it. We saw this with Laquan Treadwell last year where, look, if you aren't bringing it, if you're not healthy and bringing it, it don't matter where you're drafted. Somebody else is going to play ahead of you. So I do buy the hype on Ryan Grant. What about you two?

[Andy Holloway]

I think the skill set that Ryan Grant has matches what Kirk Cousins has a very precise route runner, but he doesn't have the athleticism to, you know, for fantasy purposes. If he gets that job, I don't, I don't know how high his ceiling is. That being said, the opportunity is huge. And if you're in a deeper dynasty league like we're in, you could have picked them up for $0 for fab like I did.

[Jason Moore]

Also, when I say I buy the hype, I buy the hype and how it impacts docs and not so much on the prospects of Ryan Grant.

[Mike Wright]

Third round pick.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Mike Wright]

Ryan Grant.

[Jason Moore]

No, don't think so. All right, let's move on. Maybe. Maybe. All right, here we go. Some news broke about John Brown bulking up to 185 pounds this offseason. Love it looking. I've seen 18 reports that say the same thing. They all say, well, John Brown's John Brown again.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Dave, Pat is the voice of the Arizona Cardinals and his. He tweeted out my report from Camp is John Brown finally looks like John Brown again. And that's all. Reports have been positive on John Brown coming out of camp. It remains to be seen what he'll do on. On a football field. But yeah, are we. Is he still coming at a discount on the adp? I don't have that right in front. Of course he is.

[Jason Moore]

He is. Because of I. When we talk about John Brown. I noticed one thing on Twitter and YouTube. People are like, I'm not gonna get burned by him again. Yeah, that's why he's at a discount.

[Mike Wright]

I get it.

[Jason Moore]

People are hurt.

[Andy Holloway]

Perfect post hype sleeper. When a guy burns you that big, he. There's no way he's going to be drafted at a. At a where he should be drafted if he bounces back.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's talk about Marshawn Lynch. Is this a story or is this not a story?

[Andy Holloway]

This is a story. Here's why.

[Jason Moore]

Jimmy Durkin of the San Jose Mercury News says the Raiders could hold Marshawn lynch under 200 carries.

[Andy Holloway]

It's not a story for, you know, the impact on fantasy. It's a story for all of the listeners. So this news came out yesterday. I participated in A Pros vs Joe's FFPC draft last night and Marshawn lynch fell to late in the fourth round. Wow. And it's entirely because the report comes out that says they might limit him to under 200 carries. That makes sense. Latavius Murray, 195, had one. Was limited to under 200 carries, but that's 14 games.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, but this is not a head coach. This is like the Raiders might hold Marshawn lynch to five more carries than Latavius Murray last year. That's. I do not buy that.

[Mike Wright]

I'm saying that where. What I buy into is this isn't the first time that this news has been talked about coming out of Oakland. And Yeah, Murray had 195 carries, but that was 14 games. So I mean, if. If lynch is able to play 16 and he's only getting 195, that's. You're just pulling down the amount of touches for Marshawn and he might end up as a touchdown Reliant running back for someone who's being drafted in the second round, which. That, that makes it news for me.

[Andy Holloway]

That, that makes sense. And I think he will. I think what you're getting in Marshawn L. Is going to be a somewhat touchdown Reliant running back, but I think he's going to get the. I mean, in those same. Only 14 games. Latavius murder got 12 touchdowns. So I mean, 195 carries.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And we want to, we want to pull it back to. Do you buy the story? Do you believe that that's what they'll do or not? Mike is a. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Wendell Smallwood, CSN Phillies. Reuben Frank expects him to have a pretty significant role. Wendell Smallwood with the Eagles this season.

[Mike Wright]

Is that Wendell Smallwood?

[Jason Moore]

Do you buy the hype or not?

[Mike Wright]

Is it did. Was this a report from his father?

[Jason Moore]

No, that's his pen name. Reuben Frank is the Wendell Smith. Yeah. Do you buy into a Wendell Smallwood year having some relevance?

[Andy Holloway]

Not at all.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Greg Rosenthal mentioned at the most recent around the NFL podcast that Carlos Hyde could be a surprise training camp cut. Joe Williams, anyone? Yeah, I've been saying it for a while. I'm buying it because I don't think Carlos side is very good.

[Andy Holloway]

That is ridiculous.

[Mike Wright]

That's, that's, that's ridiculous.

[Andy Holloway]

Hard to say that he's not good. You can say he's unreliable.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Because you don't, you don't trust his health.

[Jason Moore]

But is he good enough to not cut Jason?

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. He's good enough to not cut. I don't think he will get cut. I also don't think Vance McDonald is going to get cut.

[Mike Wright]

Vance McDonald's the more interesting cut because they did just pay him. Meanwhile, Carlos Hyde is. He's finishing up his contract on his. He was a second round pick, I believe. I'm trying to pull it up. So they owe him. They owe him like a million dollars. Why would they cut him?

[Jason Moore]

Who are you referring to?

[Mike Wright]

Carlos Hyde, a proven running back who is actually good by metrics and eye test.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I will not argue. He has his health. He can't finish a season, so it appears, but he's very good. And Joe Williams, meanwhile, zero NFL snaps.

[Jason Moore]

There seems to be an opinion in San Francisco whether it's true or not. We don't know.

[Mike Wright]

There's a lot of bio coming.

[Jason Moore]

There's an opinion that he doesn't fit their system in any way, shape or form. Therefore they may look at it like, hey, let's let the youth movement continue throughout this roster as opposed to keep an incumbent with injury concerns that could cause a locker room issue. You know, I say Carl's Hyde isn't any good. I'd be wrong if you just told me his game by game stats. I know that for a fact. But clearly they don't think he's a building block. If this Much stuff is coming out of camp.

[Andy Holloway]

That's why I added Vance McDonald on here. I think this is either, you know, they're both getting cut, the new regime's coming in and just clearing house and saying, you know, new youth build for the future, you know, these aren't our guys or they'll both stay. That's. That's kind of how I see all the reports because you really do have that what you just described. The buzz around there is out with the old. And.

[Mike Wright]

And I would say usually at this point, if for Hyde of the youth movement, I would say, well, the coaches got to keep their jobs, so that's why they keep these players. But given the Shanahan long contract, lynch contract, they're very long. So it poss.

[Andy Holloway]

It's.

[Mike Wright]

If he's cut, it's because I would agree that it's with you saying that they're just going to move ahead with young guys.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

Except for Pierre Garcon.

[Jason Moore]

Tim Tourneyman of the Lions official website expects Theo Riddick to be more involved in the red zone this year. Buy or sell this hype.

[Andy Holloway]

May I want to buy it. I have a hard time believing it. If the other running backs there are healthier than last year, how will his opportunity go up? I guess you could say Anquan Bolden is gone and so if you use him in the slot.

[Mike Wright]

I was just going to say if by more involved they're saying they're going to slide him into the slot, then sure. But no, not as a running back.

[Jason Moore]

All right, last piece. Everybody's favorite player, the Eagles head coach or I'm sorry, the offensive coordinator has been praising Nelson Aguilar for a great spring. I could barely say that out loud, but there's also a report that Jordan Matthews knee issue is more serious than tendinitis.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, there's reports that.

[Jason Moore]

Do you like him even more now?

[Mike Wright]

No, listen. There's reports of that it could be more than tendonitis. There's also reports that it's. He's come down with contract itis.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Of course he has.

[Mike Wright]

Just throwing it out there.

[Jason Moore]

Do you like. I mean is it in his best interest to come down with contract itis in the midst of a Alsha and Jeffrey Torrey Smith Nelson Aguilar paying well. I mean take it up.

[Mike Wright]

Alshon's on a one year deal. Tori Smith's deal is not actually that strong for a player. If you look at what he's actually guaranteed and Aguilar's coming to the end.

[Jason Moore]

Wide receivers like Jordan Matthews, they go make their money with another team.

[Mike Wright]

Right? That's what I think that's possible.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we are going to jump into the NFC south divisional segment here. Going to break down all of the things going on with those teams. Which players headed out the door, which ones are coming in the fantasy implications. Before we do that, I want to thank the sponsor of today's show, Flea Flicker. Hey commissioners, does your site make simple league updates harder than they need to be? I think I've heard that from a lot of fantasy owners. If so, it's time to try something new. Flea Flicker is a free fantasy sports platform with easy management, robust customization. Another request, we get a lot from listeners lightning fast live scoring in blockbuster trade features. Which sounds like I can get my get my hands around that. Built for customer commissioners to provide year round access to football, baseball, basketball and hockey leagues. It even has a new mobile app so you can stay tuned in anytime, anywhere. Oh, did I mention that this is 100% free.

[Andy Holloway]

Free.

[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

All right, it's time to talk some NFC South.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's get divisional.

[Jason Moore]

Staying on the ticket theme for a second. I went to a baseball game, Diamondbacks game last night with my.

[Mike Wright]

I'm sorry.

[Jason Moore]

With my little sister. Are you apologizing that I had to watch baseball? Yes, I love baseball, but. Yeah, you don't want to buy them from the scalpers that we saw down there? No, we walked by a scalper. Now, mind you, we have tickets, right? And you know, they're asking if you want tickets. And when we said no, he started yelling to his buddy that we don't get it. He just kept saying, these guys don't get it. They don't get it. And I'm like, we got tickets. We have tickets already. Do we need two tickets to get in? What don't we understand? All right, let's talk about the Atlanta Falcons, last year's NFC representative in the Super Bowl. Just a prolific offense, 11, five season monster year. One of those, you know, perfect seasons in a lot of ways. And the offense is pretty much the exact same. If you don't, you know, if we're not talking coaching change there with Kyle Shanahan heading to San Francisco, the personnel, it looks just like last year. You got Matt Ryan and Freeman and Coleman at the running back spots. You got Julio Sanu Gabriel and then you have a second year tight end in Austin Hooper. 33.8 points per game last year. Interesting stat when you break down the difference of points per game versus just offensive points per game. So that would take out defensive points, that would take out special teams and kicking. So special teams is kicking.

[Mike Wright]

So what we need to do for fancy football.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, got it. The guts of the player. 20.9 offensive points per game for this roster. And really, just, you know, what more can you say about Matt Ryan's season? He was.

[Mike Wright]

What were the Rams, do you recall? Just so we have some context.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Offensive points per game for The Rams were 8.8.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, so. So the Falcons are putting up a lot of points.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. And one of the interesting things that we'll talk about right away, I want to hear your opinions on both of the running backs in this offense. Last year, a stat that stood out to me for the Falcons, 55 yards per game receiving from the running back position, which I think was number one in the league. So obviously Tevin Coleman made a lot of hay that way. Do you expect those type of numbers to persist when you have two great pass catching backs?

[Andy Holloway]

I think they'll be up near the higher end of the league. I don't necessarily think they'll be number one because that was so skewed by some of those huge long runs that Tevin Coleman had. But they have the capabilities there. I mean, those two backs are great. Devonta Freeman is a fantastic pass catching back. And whether or not the, you know, the Falcons regress, which I'll probably talk about in a couple minutes here, spoiler, they're going to devont. Freeman and Julio. Those guys. Those guys are absolutely fine. I mean, two years ago, if they were to regress to that, Devonta Freeman was the number one running back. So, you know, I don't have worries over Freeman. I think Coleman is being a little bit overdrafted.

[Mike Wright]

He's actually falling injured.

[Andy Holloway]

That's good. I've noticed that on his adp. And just keep, keep it sliding. Another, just a little bit further.

[Jason Moore]

Scooch it. Scooch it down.

[Andy Holloway]

Just a little. Scooch my booch down and he'll get to where he belongs. People were over hyping him based on what he did last year.

[Mike Wright]

Well, you get out of the season, you're very excited, pumped. I mean, like, how far does Tevin Coleman have to fall before you're okay jumping in on essentially a backup running back?

[Jason Moore]

I would take him in the sixth round.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. I think that's where he's going.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, take him in the late six. I mean, that's where Derrick Henry's going. I take Coleman.

[Mike Wright]

I'd rather have Coleman.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, me too. That's. That's my point. Let's talk about Matt Ryan. You brought him up. We've had lots of debates. Before the show started, Jason and I were debating once again because I was making the point to Jason that every time a new, exciting, amazing stat about that season comes out, it's just another reason that Jason says he's going to regress. One of the things I looked at Matt Ryan last year. In 16 games, he was a QB1 11 times. The other five games, he was a two QB2. He never had a game outside of a QB2 11 times as a QB1. One of the most consistent seasons you can expect from this kind of player. I am of the belief and I know, Mike, you're more on my side. Look, the personnel is the same on the field. We expect greatness from Drew Brees every single year. We expect it from Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. I don't see a reason, I believe that Matt Ryan is good enough to enter that echelon with this offense and these offensive pieces. So I'm not calling for a regression on the offense.

[Andy Holloway]

All right? So here's why I think that there is a clear and definite regression coming for the offense. Now, when a player throws for, you know, new career high in touchdowns or anything, you always have to ask the question, like, have they just gotten better or is this, you know, an outlier? If it's away from the package and it can be either. I mean, there's plenty of examples where a guy stepped up and he took that leap forward and plenty of examples where no, that was.

[Mike Wright]

Got that xp.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. You know, that was the outlier. It's rare to have that example come after, you know, almost a decade playing football. And all of a sudden the, you know, now he goes from throwing 21, 28, 26 touchdowns the three years prior to 38 touchdowns. And just look at the team as a whole. Okay. Because I think that's a little bit better way to start when, you know, we're breaking down the entire division, let me tell you. Here are the total points scored for the Falcons, okay. The last four years, total points for the Falcons, 353 points. 381, 339. Pretty consistent around that. 350, which is very, you know, that's not bad. 540. Now let's take a look at. Okay, well, maybe they leveled up and they'll stay at 540. In the last several years, going back To, I think, 2011, teams that scored over 540 points, you have the 2011 packers and Saints. Two teams did it that year. The next year, both of those with Drew Brees, with Aaron Rodgers, they went down to 433 and 461, which is basically losing 200 points. Out of those two teams, the 2012 Patriots did it. They fell 113 points the next year. The 13 Broncos did it. They fell 124 points the following year. There's just no example of a team or a player that takes this type of a leap up. That doesn't. Even if he. Okay, he doesn't regress all the way back. He's. He's going back and that's going to happen. I think he's going to go most of the way back.

[Mike Wright]

And I agree that he's going to come down because if I was projecting last season, then Matt Ryan would be my number one quarterback. I mean, so, yes, there's going to be regression, but since 2012, Matt Ryan averages 4,700 passing yards. It's not Abnormal for him to be up near 5K. I mean he's, he's a good quarterback. There was the outlier of. He averaged since 201214 interceptions a year that went down to seven and he's averaged 29 touchdowns since 2012 and it was 38 last year. The thing about 2012, I went back to that is because that's when he had a really strong year. That was essentially his best fantasy season to the this point of his career, 32 touchdowns. And look at his personnel. He had three elite options. He had Julio Jones, good Roddy White and good Tony Gonzalez. And so that's why I'm not completely backing off of Matt Ryan, because he's Julio, Taylor, Gabriel, his running backs. Sanu is not a, he's not a bad player. He's fine. But if it was just Sanu and Julio, maybe I have concerns, but I'm not going to bury Matt Ryan all the way out of my top five because of the regression.

[Jason Moore]

He's got a great schedule to start the year and he has a pretty decent schedule overall. It makes sense for him to not necessarily top out at those numbers. But I still have a lot of, I just think the stability of what you see on that offense and the head coach gives me a lot of confidence in him being an upper echelon quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

And just so we're clear for the listeners, I'm not saying he goes back to where he was the 19th ranked quarterback the year before, before he had those weapons. But 2012 is a perfect example. He was the seventh quarterback, depending on scoring format, seventh or eighth.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

I've got him right now as my eighth quarterback in four point, seventh in six points. So that's where I expect him to go to. Is a decent quarterback. Not one of those.

[Jason Moore]

We need to move on from Matt Ryan.

[Mike Wright]

Okay?

[Jason Moore]

No, we need to move on. Talk about some more Falcons.

[Mike Wright]

I was going to move on to Austin Hooper.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and I want to bring him up too because Austin Hooper, I want to get your take on where you would draft him. The thing about Austin Hooper hype for me is when you look at the numbers last year, this is a team that was at the bottom of the league in terms of targeting the tight end position. 30th out of 32 teams, only five targets to the tight end position per game. Only three catches a game on average for the tight end. And that's not going to get it done in fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

He could be the most athletic player, but if he's the fifth option on the team, which Based on the weapons you just named, he might still be you're looking for. Do I pick a game where Austin Hooper catches a touchdown? Not so much. Can I start Austin Hooper every week?

[Mike Wright]

Where I draft Austin Hooper is in the year 2018. That's where I was going to go. Yeah, but he is a player that keep an eye on him and you can't really use his rookie year if you're trying to use that as his fantasy baseline. The first seven games he only played on 23% of snapshots. The second seven, 66% and that's only 14 games because he missed two. But it's just saying he is. He is a player who is up and coming. I believe in him for the future. I'm not drafting him in redraft, but he could end up being a waiver wire pickup.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to put you guys on the spot with one more Falcon before we move on here to the Buccaneers. Taylor Gabriel, right now an 11th round draft pick. He's going around players like Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Kenny Britt, Mike Williams of the Chargers, Jordan Matthews aforementioned. Where does he fall in that mix? Because I have a feeling you guys are not taking Taylor Gabriel over Kenny Britt.

[Mike Wright]

Probably not Kenny Britt, but this depends on my roster construction. I feel like Kenny Britt is just a safer floor type of guy. Meanwhile, Taylor Gabriel, Weeks 8 through 15 was a wide receiver two in six of those seven games. He was a wide receiver one twice. He's highly volatile. That's why I was saying it's roster construction. If I have two safe or let's say I have one real safe wide receiver, one mix and then I'm going to throw Gabriel as my third wide receiver because I know that he can win me a week as long as my roster is safe to absorb his failures, which will happen.

[Andy Holloway]

Right? I agree completely. Also a great target in a draft only. Best ball format.

[Mike Wright]

Oh yes.

[Andy Holloway]

I love the upside that he gives you. Like you said, he's got number one.

[Mike Wright]

I took him on in my Tuesday's play. Draft, draft.

[Andy Holloway]

Very nice.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's go ahead and talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished second in the Division 9 and 7. A lot of hype around this offense. A lot of big pieces being added to The Bucks offense. DeSean Jackson, O.J. howard and Chris Godwin in the draft. Jeremy McNichols as well. I'm going to be honest with you guys. I'm going to come clean. I'm having. I feel like I need to come into the therapist's office right now. And I need you guys to talk to me.

[Mike Wright]

Come on, please. Have a.

[Jason Moore]

Take a seat.

[Mike Wright]

Have a seat. Lay down if you must.

[Jason Moore]

It's this relationship I have.

[Mike Wright]

Tell me what troubles you, my son.

[Jason Moore]

I need to talk about this relationship I have with Jameis Winston because it's a hot and cold thing. Sometimes we're hot for each other and sometimes we're not for each other. Last year this blew me away. Last year he was outside the top 12 for the last six weeks of the season. But more. More depressing. Depressing than that. Only three top 10 finishes out of 16 weeks for Jameis Winston last year. And when you start to look at this offense, I see all the glitz and glamour. Desean Jackson, Mike Evans, and I can see all the touchdowns. But then I see this as a team. 25 carries a game, fifth most in the league. A commitment to the run that led them to a near playoff berth. And I don't know if I should commit to this breakout Winston narrative or not. And I need help, guys. Or like some medicine.

[Mike Wright]

I can join you because I've been a little bit worried about Winston and the Buccaneers passing offense for a while. Mike Evans, I still believe in him. I'm still fine where he is. Being drafted, I believe. I don't, actually. Don't. What wide receiver is Mike Evans going as?

[Andy Holloway]

I'll vet it.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you. The first eight games, Mike Evans was getting 13 targets a game because the Buccaneers defense was vastly underperforming. And as we know, Mike Evans was the show in town. Jason has signaled to me that he is the wide receiver. Four in drafts. I wouldn't, I wouldn't take him fourth. So I lied when I said I'm okay with where he's going. I'm still okay with him being, you know, a second round pick. But the final eight games, the defense turned it around. Nine targets a game. The final five games of the season, he was averaging five receptions and 60 yards. I mean, that's fine. That's perfectly fine. I mean that's essentially a thousand yard season. But that's not a top four wide receiver. Unless. Unless he's dropping those 12 plus touchdowns again. So I am. I don't want Evans in my top five.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. When it comes to the entire passing game. I'm so confused by the Buccaneers 16th.

[Jason Moore]

Most passing yards last year. So I look middle of the pack.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And remember last year, right? Everyone was talking about the schedule to come for the freaking playoff schedule. The playoff schedule was so juicy. It's just a bunch of garbage teams. And so you want.

[Mike Wright]

Where Mike Evans went five receptions for 60 yards through the right.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the point. They super disappointed and you go, well that, that's weird. They had, you know, but they won those games. And that's the problem is, is that well for fantasy they won. The problem is the methodology that worked for them was not good for fantasy players in good matchups. Here is the weirdest stat I have seen in a while when I was getting ready for this show. So I looked up the team and what happens.

[Jason Moore]

Winston has six toes on his left foot.

[Andy Holloway]

Six toes.

[Mike Wright]

That's why he's. He's so mobile. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

In.

[Jason Moore]

It's all based on toe quantity.

[Andy Holloway]

I looked up as a team, how do they do against. When they. When they face top half and bottom half passing defenses, there is a huge gap on the team level. So when they. When they face top half pass defenses, their point differential as a team was more than negative 7. Or I guess it would be less than negative 7. But against the bottom half it was positive 7. That's a huge swing. So their team is so much better against bottom passing D teams. And this is over the last two years. Well, Jameis Winston, if you look at his splits, he actually performs better against top half passing defenses. So you go, what in the world?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I'm just getting very confused over here, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's why.

[Jason Moore]

He's saying the team's better against bad passing defenses, but Jameis is worse.

[Andy Holloway]

The passing game, as we saw in the playoffs last year, is not over a 32 game sample size, which I think is fair because Dirt Cutter was still the. So the last two seasons, Dirt Cutter was offensive coordinator, then head coach. And it even got even more drastic as the head coach last year. When they face a good passing defense, they pass the ball almost 10 times more a game. They just commit. We're like, we're going to beat you while you do. And they've done this for 32 games. I don't get it. It makes no sense.

[Mike Wright]

Or is that more so because of them they were losing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, obviously the better passing teams are better teams and so they could be down. That makes sense. But his efficiency was worse. But Jameis actually performs better against those more difficult teams. The first six weeks, man, the Bucs schedule is not. Does not look good overall on the season. They've got a good schedule. So. Yeah, I mean, the Bucks, there's a lot of question marks here.

[Jason Moore]

Did we help anybody there?

[Mike Wright]

I have no clue.

[Jason Moore]

Desean Jackson. Where do you put desean Jackson? Range of possible outcomes before we move on from. I mean, I feel like we need to talk about the running back situation. Yeah, we'll get there, speak briefly about Jackson, and then Jason maybe touched on the running backs and we'll move on.

[Mike Wright]

DeSean Jackson is. His outcomes to me is wide receiver two, wide receiver three. He was 1,000 yards last year, but he was still just a three. And Kirk Cousins is one of the better deep ball passers. While we know that Jameis Winston likes.

[Jason Moore]

To air it out, just sometimes the other team catches it.

[Mike Wright]

He's just a little more erratic with his decision making, but he's still, you know, desean Jackson, expect him to be right around that thousand yards. But will he. Will it be four touchdowns or will it be seven? I mean, that's going to be the difference for DeSean Jackson.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Okay. And so what about the Jacquiz Rogers, Doug Martin situation? Martin keeps climbing up draft boards, making him.

[Mike Wright]

Did his suspension go away?

[Jason Moore]

Well, not a value right now.

[Andy Holloway]

No. No, he's still. He's still missing the first three games. First three games. We assume it's going to be Jacquiz Rogers in that role for those first three weeks, which goes Miami, Chicago, Minnesota. So it's kind of.

[Mike Wright]

It's all right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's all right. You don't want that Minnesota game. You know, Doug Martin at that point should take over, become that lead back. I think that Jacquiz is a great value late. He's like an opposite handcuff. He is the reverse. Handcuff is what Jacquiz is, a handshake. Because, you know, when you draft a handcuff, you've got to take up, you know, bench space, that capital of your roster with somebody that's not doing anything. And then three weeks in, you cut him, having received nothing out of him, because you need a roster spot. Jaquiz at least is going to give you value. And then you cut him in week four and you had with the potential.

[Jason Moore]

That on a team where you run the ball 25 times a game and he's not worried about the workload because he knows it'll be shared later. He may get a lot of work those first few weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Once Doug Martin does come back, though, the schedule is after like two weeks. The rest of the season's pretty nice for him.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's talk about the New.

[Mike Wright]

Orleans Saints, but are you drafting him?

[Andy Holloway]

Nope.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

One of the most prolific offenses in the league will always be with Drew Brees. Let's talk about the Saints. They, Tim Hightower isn't there anymore. They drafted Alvin Camara, they brought in Adrian Peterson, and they brought in Ted Ginn and lost Brandon Cooks. That's kind of the lay of the land on the offensive side of the ball for the New Orleans Saints. I want to talk about the running backs to start this thing out. Nobody. There are no questions about Drew Brees. If you, if you have a question, just go to the ultimate draft kit, click on consistency charts and then look at all the green for 10 straight years and more than that. But Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, Alvin Kamara, Trevoris Cadet. Last year, the Saints targeted the running back more than anybody in football. Almost nine times a game. That was number one. The receiving touchdowns from the running back position was number one in the league last year. Trevares Cadet had 40 of those receptions. Tim Hightower had 22. That's 62 receptions. How do those break down in the passing game? Are those all Mark Ingrams? Adrian Peterson has been talking all about. In fact, he's going to set a career high in receiving yards and all of that. How do we see this breaking down? What is the biggest risk that a fantasy owner can take with this backfield? What is the biggest reward?

[Mike Wright]

Man. So I, Andy, I know believes in Adrian Peterson. I don't. And you want to hype. Train the reports at New Orleans. Oh, he looks like Adrian Peterson. And last year, very, very, very small sample size. I get it. But it was 37 carries for 72 yards. That's 1.95 yards per carry. I mean, it was a disaster before he got hurt. And people are, people are buying in because. And I get it. When Adrian Peterson plays a full season, he's a running back one. That's historically what has happened. But he's right. He's on the wrong side of the age gap. I'm very concerned about him. He's not a good pass catcher. So I'm going to take Mark Ingram, who continues to plummet in drafts, and I'm expecting a timeshare. Maybe Mark Ingram eventually usurps Adrian Peterson. The way I'm projecting it, that Peterson is done. So it's Ingram's a value and Peterson.

[Andy Holloway]

Is a wasted, I mean, wasted pick. Yeah, Peterson is a super high upside, super high risk pick is how I see him now, if I had to, you know, that's up there. Take.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to remember that one with the Devonta Freeman. He stinks.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So here's the deal with Adrian Peterson High power offense. If he gets, you know, if he becomes a touchdown machine, he will pay off in that fifth round. But he is going two rounds ahead of Mark Ingram and if you look.

[Mike Wright]

At the Saints, he's in the fifth now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

If you look at the Saints over the last few years, you've pretty much got like this systematic. So they've got Alvin Kamara, he comes in, he's replacing Trevor's Cadet. Like that's, that's the role he's coming into. Adrian Peterson's coming in and he's replacing, you know, Tim Hightower and Kyrie Robinson, who, you know, had 133 carries this last year. The year before, those two when Kyrie was there combined for 152 carries. And Mark Ingram is going to replace the Mark Ingram. And I think that that Mark Ingram role over the last few years has been very valuable. But because ap, because Kamar come in his draft, I mean, you had to take. Mark Ingram was a first round draft pick last year. I just think now he's in the 611. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And I'm not going to debate the value difference between Peterson and Ingram. Ingram should be drafted. He could have a very good season. I will argue a little bit about the kind of systematic plug and play mindset here that's being brought forward. I don't think Alvin Kamara walks in and he just automatically gets 40 receptions like Trevor's Cadet did. You know, Trevares Cadet was there two years ago and that didn't happen. And maybe people envisioned for him at that point. I think you have to look at, look a rookie coming in, you know, third down, backs have to pass block. That might be Mark Ingram's role. Maybe Mark Ingram doesn't get the first and second down. Maybe that's AP a little bit. He's talking about being used in the passing game. I just would caution the plug and play. Okay. Players leave, players come in. I don't think that these roles are always so predefined.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I mean, if you go back far enough, you do have examples of, you know, other mixes. You had a year where you had three different running backs get 100 carries back with it was Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and someone else. I forget. So, I mean, you're right. It's. We don't know the future.

[Jason Moore]

We're not Ivory that year.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think it was, but maybe so. You know, we're not smart enough to know. I just, I see Ingram, he's been efficient with what he's had in this offense that he knows, like you said, you don't just come in and replace someone. You have to learn the system. You have to prove you can do it. We know what Mark Ingram can do in this system, and it's been good. That's my point. The last point is basically just that. Adrian Peterson being a little older, being liked by Andy, Andy being the fantasy reaper. You do the math.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, you're.

[Mike Wright]

There is. There's a lot of science that just happened.

[Jason Moore]

There's only one man that's been in that system out of that. That group. And you're right. It's Mark Ingram. And for some reason, the head coach doesn't like him. Hey, let me make this.

[Mike Wright]

We haven't factored in Peyton's just disdain for Mark Ingram.

[Jason Moore]

Willie Snead's one of our favorite values. If you look at the ultimate draft kit, Willie Snead's name's plastered in there. We love Willie Snead. This year, Michael Thomas, Brandon Cooks is gone. Wide receivers in New Orleans, 222 yards a game, best in the league. I made the argument on Twitter. I believe Michael Thomas is bust proof. I don't think there's any possible way that Michael Thomas can bust this year. Some people see that, they want to tell me, oh, well, he was a rookie and, you know, now he's got number one coverage. Okay, who's catching 222 yards a game. Where's that breaking down in the wide receiver core? It's not all going to Ted Ginn. It's not all going to Willie Snead.

[Mike Wright]

Kobe.

[Jason Moore]

Willie Snead, I think has, you know, he's got 80 yards of game written all over. Michael Thomas is bust proof to me.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Now I love. Is he the best in the league? Maybe not. But he's bust proof.

[Mike Wright]

The thing about him is he. You're drafting him, you know, towards his ceiling. But I agree that even if he doesn't hit his ceiling, I don't think that he's going to harm your team. He's not going to crap your team. And the argument I've, the really only logical argument I've heard against Michael Thomas is Drew Brees doesn't over target someone. He always spreads it around. But 2015, Brandon Cooks, his top target, had 129 targets and he was the wide receiver 14. In 2014, Jimmy Graham had 125 targets and Jimmy Graham would have been the wide receiver. 16 and 2013, Jimmy Graham had 142 targets, would have been the wide receiver four. So while wide receiver 14, 16 doesn't sound great. That's. He didn't kill you. Michael Thomas isn't the Brandon Cooks, boom, bust, I completely vanish from football games type of player.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's why Andy's saying like the bus.

[Mike Wright]

That's why he's. And I'm just, I'm trying to pile on Andy's argument, strengthen it.

[Andy Holloway]

I like it. I have been cooling a little bit on Willie Snead solely from the standpoint of touchdowns. I just worry because now, you know, it doesn't look like he's going to move back to the outside like it was two years ago where I thought he had a chance to improve. Looks like he's going to stay in the role he had last year. I just worry if he ends up with, you know, a great year. 1100 yards, but four touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to really like Ted Ginn late too. Yes, really like Ted Ginley. All right, we got to move on. Carolina Panthers. Let's talk about the Panthers close out the NFC South. Look, the question to me about this entire team is, is there a philosophical change in place? They. They brought in Christian McCaffrey, they brought in Curtis Samuel, they brought in Russell Shepard, they brought in Charles Johnson. And those two names get enough talk because neither of them are probably going to be fantasy relevant in and of themselves. But both of those players could make Cam Newton more fantasy relevant because I think they're quality wide receivers to add to a wide receiver core that now includes Curtis Samuel, that has Kelvin Benjamin, that has Greg Olson, and Now has Christian McCaffrey coming out of the backfield. The story for this team, we've said it before, dead last in the league when it comes to running backs receiving the ball. 3.4 targets a game, 2.1 receptions, only 18 yards a game receiving from the running back position on average. Now you bring in Christian McCaffrey. That's his game. His game is to catch the ball out of the backfield. So is there a philosophical part of his play?

[Mike Wright]

Don't pigeonhole McCaffrey. I think he's more than that.

[Jason Moore]

That's part of his.

[Andy Holloway]

Part of his very good as a pass catcher.

[Jason Moore]

And you would think that with Cam Newton being as bad as he was, 18 completions a game, the worst completion percentage in all of football, one of the worst passer ratings in all football. You would think that high percentage passes might want to be worked into his repertoire. You remember when Eli Manning was struggling with New York and they renovated that offense and there was some Growing pains, which maybe you see that with Cam this year. But in the end it helped his completion percentage. It helped him get into a rhythm, confidence, all of those things. Is Cam Newton sitting back there as a value? Because you know, he came out Last year number 10 quarterback in week one, number one quarterback in week two and then the wheels fell off. We know what he can do, but what are the odds that he does it with this new offensive philosophy?

[Mike Wright]

Not, not high, not good. And the thing for Cam Newton, who, if you look at him on fantasy football calculator, his ADP has actually been coming down, which like, are we going to get to the point where Cam Newton actually becomes a value that I want to target in drafts that is also unlikely. But I just wanted to bring up for Cam Newton, his running is everything. And along with that scheme change. What has been talked about out of Carolina is we want Cam to run less and they know that. But he got, he took way too many really violent hits last year for your franchise quarterback. If you go back and look at the prolific running backs, this is right about the time of their career where that stopped and they became more pocket passers or focused on that. But Cam Newton has not had great success as a high level passer. I mean, he's 4,000 yards his rookie year, but he's never touched 4,000 yards ever since then. And what you're talking for fantasy, his rushing has been everything. If you give him last year's rushing, if it's actually going to come down, let's say they give him last year's rushing for just his career average in passing. He's, you know, running back or quarterback, 1312. And that, that leads to people overdrafting him because they're expecting huge things. But his ADP is going down. So maybe, maybe the drafters are catching on.

[Jason Moore]

And I'll toss it to you, Jay, but the thing about Cam Newton that is attractive to fantasy owners is when he goes big, he goes real big.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, big time. I mean he's, he's.

[Mike Wright]

But then he goes home on the other weeks, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, last year it was the case the year before we kept waiting for the shoe to drop. You remember that and it didn't.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. Total boom bust type of potential with Cam Newton certainly, you know, with the weapons that they've added in the, you know, with running back, running backs who can receive the ball if he can get it to him, his, his, you know, you look at the guys who are high yardage guys, right? Your Ben Roethlisberger Drew Brees. Look how much they throw the ball to the running back and all those stats get added to them, you know, with those little screen passes. And that's just never been a part.

[Jason Moore]

Of Matthew Stafford as well.

[Andy Holloway]

That's. Yeah, exactly.

[Mike Wright]

They scream like Padma stats.

[Andy Holloway]

I need a couple more. You know, Cam has the chance now to cross that 4,000. If they utilize him in that way, the opportunity is there. I completely agree with you, Mike Eileen, that he's not going to be able to succeed in it, because I don't think he's a great quarterback. I think he's a freak talent and an incredible NFL asset. But as far as being an NFL quarterback passing the ball, he's below average.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to throw a couple other variables into the mix that are my pro Cam variables. One is, I look at that schedule this year, you know, he's fortunate to play in a division with middling defenses like New Orleans, and I mean, that's generous for New Orleans.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

And then Atlanta's in the middle of the pack.

[Mike Wright]

They got better, though, towards the end of the year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but there's still a big play.

[Andy Holloway]

And Atlanta are both middle of the pack. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And then New Orleans is pretty bad. But, you know, if you look at the full season, Carolina has the third best schedule in terms of easiest passing defenses, easiest. The teams that give it the most points to quarterbacks. In the beginning of the season, not as nice, but still in the top 10. I just don't see a lot of intimidating matchups where I'd be like, oh, man, I want to sit Cam Newton. He can't, you know, blow it up this week, so.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, and you brought up Mike. You know, is he getting close to a point. Is he getting close to a point on his ADP where you're willing to draft him? He already is there for me. Because in the ninth round.

[Jason Moore]

That's where he's at right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's in the ninth right now.

[Mike Wright]

He was. He's quarterback 11 the last time. I. Yeah, I think.

[Andy Holloway]

I think on my rankings, he's eight. So he's.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, I'm saying he's being drafted the 11th quarter.

[Jason Moore]

You know what?

[Andy Holloway]

That's. And that's a. That's. I've got him ranked ahead of where he's being drafted right now.

[Jason Moore]

That's the best kind of Cam Newton. The kind of Cam Newton I can cut if I need to.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

Last year, I didn't have a Cam Newton that I could cut if I needed to.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, the first three weeks I.

[Jason Moore]

Had one that buried me.

[Andy Holloway]

The first three weeks of the season are San Francisco, Buffalo and New Orleans. You know, don't you wish you had.

[Jason Moore]

A Jason you could cut if you needed to?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you can cut me right now. I'm not leaving. But you're welcome to do it. There's gonna be, you know, Milton with the stapler.

[Jason Moore]

All right, well, I'm gonna get your quick. Take one sentence. Take. I'm gonna name a player.

[Mike Wright]

You're not getting one sentence.

[Jason Moore]

One sentence. No, I want to see if you can do it.

[Mike Wright]

Nope.

[Jason Moore]

Kelvin Benjamin.

[Mike Wright]

You're not getting one sentence. Because I have an analogy that I have to talk about for Kelvin Benjamin. Go, go in the office. Kelvin Benjamin is falling.

[Jason Moore]

My one word would be chubby.

[Mike Wright]

Kevin Benjamin is falling. He made weight. You take that back.

[Jason Moore]

He made weight. Yeah, he made a lot.

[Mike Wright]

Kelvin Benjamin made a lot of weight. I has been plummeting in drafts. He's never been a wide receiver who I've targeted. But we were in our Scotty Fishbowl draft and we were very late in the draft and I referred to Kelvin Benjamin as a college campus parking ticket. Okay, that.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah, I hated this analogy. Go on.

[Mike Wright]

No, and then it be. It came to fruition that it was very, very good. You know that you should pay the parking ticket. You know that you should draft Kelvin Benjamin because if you don't sneaky, bad things happen to you. Such. And he had the situation where he didn't pay his. And nothing happened.

[Jason Moore]

No, I was fine.

[Mike Wright]

Meanwhile, Jason Moore.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He ignored his college campus parking ticket because it's just whatever.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, stupid U of A Whatever.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, it's just a parking ticket.

[Andy Holloway]

Stupid Tucson.

[Mike Wright]

They came to collect.

[Andy Holloway]

They were on my credit.

[Mike Wright]

They came to collect $20.

[Andy Holloway]

Parking tickets were on my credit for years.

[Mike Wright]

So it's. If you're like, I shouldn't have to do this, but Kelvin Benjamin is a thousand yard receiver. He has double digit touchdown potential. You don't feel good about paying it. You think you can get away with not doing it, but it's better for your team. What you're saying when the value comes.

[Andy Holloway]

ADP is so low now that he.

[Mike Wright]

Is, you know, he's the 32nd wide receiver off the board.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe he needs a little rebranding the way that we did for Paul Perkins. Ooh. Because Calvin Benjamin, I don't like seeing that name on my bench. But if you did rebrand, it's just.

[Mike Wright]

Too bad because that's a strong name.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, that's a, that's a, that's a wild.

[Jason Moore]

If he was too tall Jones, I put him on my bench, but I'm, but I'm not putting Calvin Benjamin on him.

[Andy Holloway]

I have a hard time rebranding him while he's still so chubby. I'm hoping he loses weight. And so then it's like weight. I'm not going to rebrand him, Oprah, because that, I don't want to draft that, you know, so he's a tough, he's a tough cookie to crack.

[Mike Wright]

He's closing the showdown with that.

[Andy Holloway]

That'll do it. On behalf of Oprah, on behalf of Kevin Benjamin, thanks for listening.

[Mike Wright]

Check out playdraft.com ballers.

[Jason Moore]

Get us a best ball, football leagues, and some DFS.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.