Fantasy Football 2017 - Keep/Trade/Cut + AFC South Breakdown

Summary

Fantasy Football 2017 - Keep/Trade/Cut + AFC South Breakdown

Release Date: July 25, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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1. Introduction and Episode Overview

The episode kicks off with the hosts introducing episode #401 of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. They set the stage for a deep dive into fantasy football strategies, focusing primarily on the AFC South division.

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2. Keep/Trade/Cut Segment

Players Discussed: Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, Jonathan Stewart

The trio engages in a spirited debate over whether to keep, trade, or cut three key players.

• Andy Holloway's Take:

  • Decision: Keep Jonathan Stewart, Trade Eric Decker, Cut Randall Cobb.
  • Rationale: "I value the running back position and the idea of getting depth with Jonathan Stewart" (03:56).

• Mike Wright's Take:

  • Decision: Keep Randall Cobb, Trade Eric Decker, Cut Jonathan Stewart.
  • Rationale: "I can’t get myself to invest in a less than version of last year's Jonathan Stewart. I want to keep Eric Decker just because he’s such a touchdown machine" (05:09).

• Jason Moore's Take:

  • Decision: Keep Eric Decker, Trade Randall Cobb, Cut Jonathan Stewart.
  • Rationale: "He (Decker) is a touchdown dependency... Randall Cobb has been a wide receiver one before" (07:13).

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright on Jonathan Stewart: "He's going to have fewer carries because Christian McCaffrey is going to, you know, eat into those" (05:09).
• Jason Moore on Eric Decker: "He is the 12th wide receiver being drafted off the board right now as a wide receiver" (07:56).

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3. Foot Clan Fun Segment

The hosts engage their listeners with a series of lighthearted questions to determine which host best fits various amusing scenarios.

• Examples of Questions:
  • Help change a flat tire: Mike Wright wins with 49% of the vote (10:35).
  • Babysit your children: Andy Holloway secures 56% (11:35).
  • Voice of Siri: Jason Moore chosen with 39% (11:50).
  • Take over as quarterback: Andy Holloway selected with 57% (14:55).

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway on babysitting: "Dad. Of course." (11:40).
• Mike Wright on changing a tire: "He can change your battery" (10:24).

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4. AFC South Breakdown

The bulk of the episode is dedicated to analyzing each team within the AFC South, evaluating their fantasy football prospects for the upcoming season.

a. Houston Texans

Key Topics:

• Quarterback Situation: Transition from Brock Osweiler to Tom Savage and Deshaun Watson.
• Running Backs: Focus on Lamar Miller and potential targets like Deontay Foreman.
• Wide Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins' target volume and efficiency concerns.

Insights:

• Mike Wright expresses optimism due to offensive changes: "They’re going to run the ball at the same clip versus their past" (26:23).
• Andy Holloway highlights Lamar Miller's efficiency issues: "High volume. A lot of what they did mirrored one another. And Lamar Miller in this offense first year was" (19:19).

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright on Luigi's potential offensive improvement: "There is reason to believe that the offense could be more productive" (17:23).
• Andy Holloway on DeAndre Hopkins: "He's being severely overdrafted. I can’t imagine him returning that value this year" (23:18).

b. Indianapolis Colts

Key Topics:

• Andrew Luck's Status: Training camp on the PUP list, uncertainty about preseason play.
• Running Back Duo: Frank Gore and Robert Turbin, with added depth from Marlon Mack.
• Wide Receivers and Tight Ends: Philip Dorsett's low target volume and Jack Doyle's potential.

Insights:

• Andy Holloway remains confident in Andrew Luck's regular-season potential despite preseason uncertainties: "If he has practice time, if he’s trending the right direction... I’m going to be comfortable with him" (35:27).
• Brooks expresses skepticism about Frank Gore’s fantasy upside: "His... upside I just don't think is there" (38:47).

Notable Quotes:

• Brooks on Jack Doyle: "He’s my man from the Colts offense if I want a tight end" (41:13).
• Mike Wright on Frank Gore: "He'll have enough volume to be... an RB2 on your fantasy team" (38:47).

c. Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Topics:

• Blake Bortles' Performance: Last season plagued by inefficiency and poor deep passing.
• Wide Receiver Concerns: Allen Robinson's decreased yards after catch and target efficiency.
• Rookie Impact: Leonard Fournette's potential as a top-tier running back.

Insights:

• Andy Holloway critiques Blake Bortles' deep passing efficiency: "When Bortles targeted somebody 20 plus yards down the field, what percentage of those passes were? 7%" (45:07).
• Brooks and Mike discuss Leonard Fournette's high ceiling despite offensive line concerns: "Different from Todd Gurley’s situation last year... I'm nervous to go in on Leonard Fournette" (53:53).

Notable Quotes:

• And Andy Holloway on Leonard Fournette: "What are the possible outcomes for Leonard Fournette?" (51:26).
• Brooks on Allen Robinson: "His yards after the catch, only 5.8 yards per target. That was third worst in the league" (45:07).

d. Tennessee Titans

Key Topics:

• Marcus Mariota's Role: Questioning his efficiency and target volume.
• Wide Receiver Dynamics: DeAndre Hopkins' target ceiling and the impact of offensive changes.
• Tight Ends and Offensive Line: Delaney Walker's future and the improvement in the offensive line.

Insights:

• Mike Wright emphasizes that despite offensive changes, the Titans will likely maintain a similar run-heavy approach: "They’re not going to say, 'We’re not running the ball.' We're going to say... passing is more efficient" (27:53).
• Brooks raises concerns about Delaney Walker's value amid increased competition: "He's currently the tight end seven according to fantasy football calculator... I'm not going to spend a middle round pick for this" (32:13).

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway on Delaney Walker: "Delaney Walker will be all right. He'll be a tight end one" (33:33).
• Mike Wright on Delaney Walker: "He'll be a tight end one, but you won't have felt it through most of the year" (33:33).

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5. Community and Promotion

The hosts promote the podcast's community features, encouraging listeners to join forums and leagues at jointhefoot.com. They also mention their upcoming Game of Thrones-themed show and remind listeners to participate in the 2017 Podcast Awards.

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6. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with the hosts thanking listeners for their support and reminding them to follow the podcast on Twitter and join their fantasy football community. They sign off with enthusiasm for helping listeners enjoy and succeed in their fantasy football seasons.

Closing Quote:
Mike Wright: "Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast." (55:54)

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Key Takeaways

• Keep/Trade/Cut Decisions: Diverse opinions highlight the complexity of fantasy roster management.
• AFC South Insights: Each team presents unique fantasy opportunities and challenges, particularly regarding quarterback efficiency and offensive strategies.
• Player Evaluations: Emphasis on evaluating players based on both past performance and future potential within team dynamics.
• Community Engagement: Strong encouragement for listeners to engage with the podcast's community for enhanced fantasy football experiences.

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Notable Timestamps

• 00:08: Jason Moore's grand introduction.
• 03:36 - 07:56: Keep/Trade/Cut discussions.
• 10:00 - 15:24: Foot Clan Fun Segment.
• 16:04 - 54:42: AFC South Breakdown.
• 55:54: Episode Conclusion.

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For more in-depth analysis and up-to-date fantasy football advice, tune into the Fantasy Footballers Podcast and join their vibrant community at jointhefoot.com.

Transcript

[Jason Moore]

In a world where the line between success and failure can be measured in fractions of a point, three gentlemen, nay heroes, have put aside their differences to combine forces and produce the greatest fantasy football draft kit of all time. Many said that it couldn't be done. Many said it shouldn't be done. But the desire to be the best, the passion to rise above the rest, has pointed these podcasters on a one way path to fulfill their destiny this summer. From the creative minds behind the Fantasy Footballers comes a blockbuster multimedia extravaganza the likes of which has never been seen. Video profiles, stat projections, tier breakdowns, printable cheat sheets, rookie rankings, sleepers, busts, and so much more. Mike Wright calls it the one draft tool you can't miss. Andrew Holloway says it's changed his life. And Jason Moore said, when I saw all the content in the ultimate draft kit, I fell to my knees and wept. I wept like a baby. Don't miss this opportunity. Go to www.ultimatedraftkit.com today and secure your copy today.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Coming to the Play Draft Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andrew Holloway]

It's Tuesday.

[Mike Wright]

It's Tuesday.

[Andrew Holloway]

Tuesday, July 25, 2017. And we are the fantasy footballers show number 401. We are, we are the Fantasy Footballers.

[Brooks]

We are the. That sounded like one statement that We Are the Fantasy Footballers show 401.

[Andrew Holloway]

We Are the Fantasy Footballers comma show 401 begins now. Andy, Mike and Jason, welcome in.

[Brooks]

I have announcement.

[Andrew Holloway]

You have an announcement.

[Brooks]

Foot clan. You are my weakness.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I see what you did there. I'm weeping.

[Andrew Holloway]

Okay, that's a little Game of Thrones reference from last night's or two nights ago. We will do a Game of Thrones show after the show either today or neck on Thursday.

[Brooks]

Stay tuned.

[Andrew Holloway]

Here's the thing. We've got some updates coming to the udk. Some of the player profile videos. As we often do, we are updating Mike Wallace and Jeremy Macklin, Ezekiel Elliott, a few other guys. So Tyree Kill, Tyreek Hill just updated some of our dynasty rankings on the udk. So for those of you who have access, lots of updates coming your way. New consistency charts here on the horizon.

[Mike Wright]

I hope someday. We've been promising.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right, today's episode's a good one. We have the AFC south breakdown. First. We're going to jump into. In lieu of a quick question, we're going to play a little keep, trade, cut.

[Mike Wright]

Keep, trade, cut.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right, key trade cut. Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, Jonathan Stewart, Brooks, pick these names out and apparently we all have different takes. So keep, trade, cut Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, Jonathan Stewart. Who wants to kick it off? Do you want me to go?

[Brooks]

Yes.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right. I'm keeping Jonathan Stewart, I'm trading Eric Decker and I'm cutting Randall Cobb and I'll tell you why. I value the running back position and the idea of getting depth and in Jonathan Stewart. You know, right now Jonathan Stewart and Jamal Charles are back to back in fantasy drafts. They're late 8th round draft picks and you look at Eric Decker. I want to trade Eric Decker because I think there is a lot of love for him out there and I understand why. But you're bringing a player who has, who's coming off of an injury into a new offense. Last year, Titans receivers averaged nine, 0.9 catches per game as a unit. That's under 10 receptions total from the wide receiver position. That's second to last in the league. They passed the third least in the NFL. And so for me, that just makes Decker too scary to be the keep here.

[Brooks]

He played three games.

[Andrew Holloway]

That's part of what makes it scary. He's in a new offense and he was injured and he's coming off an injury now. He's in a place that doesn't pass a lot and you're talking about a TD dependency. We're going to talk more about the Titans later on, but I'm going to keep Stuart, trade Decker, Cobb.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I'll hop in here because my cut is your keep. To me, Jonathan Stewart's just. Look, I realize where he's going in the draft versus what he should do. He should outperform his running back rank. But I don't think that there's any true upside because last year he was the 23rd running back in half point scoring or in standard. And he's going to be less than this year. He's going to be less than the role he had last year. No, no, not less than in the rank, less than on the field. He's going to have fewer carries because Christian McCaffrey is going to, you know, eat into those. I'm not a huge McCaffrey supporter in the sense that I think both these guys are really going to be splitting the workload. But I can't get myself to invest in a less than version of last year's Jonathan Stewart. And I want to keep Eric Decker just because he's such a touchdown machine paired with another efficient touchdown guy. But I'm like, Andy, I'm not convinced yet until I see something, you know, on film in camp that he's back, he's healthy, you know, reports are good. So I'm going with Cobb. I'm going to keep Cobb, trade Decker and cut Stewart. You know, last year you have a wide receiver one in Devonte Adams, who we have said for a while, Devonte Adams stinks. And in some ways he's not an elite wide receiver to me, but he was a wide receiver one because of Aaron Rodgers. Randall Cobb has been a wide receiver one before. If the pendulum just swings and the touchdowns go to Cobb, I will take the quarterback upside with Aaron Rodgers.

[Andrew Holloway]

We saw Cobb as a wide receiver one through the first seven weeks last year. It was close for me between those two. So good pick.

[Brooks]

So I missed the trade in the cut.

[Mike Wright]

My. I trade Decker. I cut Jonathan Stewart.

[Brooks]

All right, I'm keeping Eric Decker. I traded him to you and I gladly take him. He is.

[Andrew Holloway]

Of course you keep Eric Decker. Yes, of course I keep the last games played total in the. In the last 12 months. They're the only players.

[Brooks]

12 months, okay. We're talking about Jonathan Stewart. He hasn't played a full season since 2011. Eric Decker got hurt last year.

[Mike Wright]

Surprised you don't love him then.

[Brooks]

Jonathan Stewart and like Eric Decker is coming off an injury every single week. Jonathan Stewart is coming off of an injury. That's how frequent he gets hurt. Eric Decker. I don't hold the touchdown efficiency against Eric Decker. He's going to Mariota, who last year was unbelievably efficient throwing touchdowns. Eric Decker in the last six years, 13% of his receptions are touchdowns. And this is not a one or two year sample. This is. That's who he. He is 51 touchdowns over the last six years and he only played three games last year. I'm trading Cobb because there's still suckers like Jason who are buying into the pendulum swing as a possibility. No, not really.

[Mike Wright]

It's.

[Brooks]

I think that's in the realm of possibilities. And I'm cutting Stewart. I don't buy into this. He's keeping all the carries he had last year. You don't spend a top 10 pick on a running back to give 250 carries to the veteran.

[Andrew Holloway]

So we have three completely different picks. I'm a little surprised someone who values running backs like you, Mike, that you would go the Decker direction. But hey, we're going to talk a lot about the Titans on today's show. Going to break down the AFC south teams so very much looking forward to that conversation, which we'll start here in just a Minute. Before we talk about that, I have a couple of exciting things to break down for listeners. First few days. There are a few days left for the 2017 Podcast Awards. And so if you enjoy the podcast, you want to help us out, take a couple minutes, go to footclan, vote.com and nominate us for the People's Choice and the best sports and Recreation podcast for 2017.

[Brooks]

Do it.

[Andrew Holloway]

And we would really appreciate it.

[Brooks]

Do it.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right. We did have show 400 on Saturday. Show 400 in our success. Yeah. And a big credit to Judge Giamatti over there, who cut together about 11 minutes of our greatest hits. Misses, maybe. It's hard to say. You know, I never had so much reaction than to the spread your legs. The spreading the legs comment. I was listening back because that was funny.

[Brooks]

And that one caught my wife very off guard. She said, wait, what did he say? I was like, hold on. There was a faux pas that happened.

[Andrew Holloway]

You expect that from the wizard of grammar over here. But. All right. So I thought it would be fun before we talk AFC South. I thought it would be fun, too. I polled the foot clan, I polled the listeners, and I basically gave them 12 questions. Of which footballer would you choose? I mean, 400 episodes in you've got to know us pretty well. And so who would you choose for these various interesting things that you could choose one of us for and only one of us.

[Mike Wright]

And you told Mike and I to stay out.

[Andrew Holloway]

I told Mike I don't know the answers. I posted it, and then I handed it all over to Brooks, and I said, brooks, you write down who wins. I only who wins these ones. Who's chosen? All right, so here's an example. All right, we'll start with this one. Which footballer would you choose to help you change a flat tire?

[Brooks]

Well, the question is, Jason, can you change a tire?

[Mike Wright]

I sure can. Done it many times, but I'm sure you're surprised.

[Brooks]

I actually am very surprised.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah. I've changed the tire, too. So which. Which footballer did the foot clan choose to help them change a tire?

[Producer]

Well, the foot clan was surprised also. Jason, you. You got last on this one.

[Mike Wright]

I would expect nothing.

[Andrew Holloway]

Who won that one?

[Producer]

The winner is. Mike.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yes.

[Producer]

49% of the vote.

[Andrew Holloway]

Okay.

[Producer]

Mike Wright.

[Andrew Holloway]

Mike Wright, you chosen.

[Brooks]

Why? Is it because I can change your tire?

[Andrew Holloway]

All right, we can make predictions on.

[Brooks]

You know what else I can do? I can change your battery.

[Andrew Holloway]

Wow.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's. That's a plus.

[Andrew Holloway]

I was gonna say Jason tried to help help my wife change the battery when I was True story. Stuck watching the kids. He drove up there, and I helped.

[Mike Wright]

Take care of it. Fix nothing. But Andy came and fixed the problem the next day. So you are a wise listener. Base. Foot clan.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right, number two. Which footballer would you choose? To help you or. I'm sorry. To babysit your children? To babysit your kids. What do you guys think?

[Brooks]

I'm gonna. I'm going with Jason.

[Andrew Holloway]

Really?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, that would be the right pick.

[Brooks]

He's a clown. All right, Cheer my kids up.

[Andrew Holloway]

Who won that? Who won that one?

[Producer]

The winner is Andy.

[Brooks]

Oh, the responsible one.

[Mike Wright]

Dad. Of course.

[Producer]

56%.

[Mike Wright]

How did we not assume it would be Dad?

[Andrew Holloway]

56% of the vote. What was the next closest?

[Producer]

Mike with 25. Jason.

[Mike Wright]

19 left off.

[Brooks]

It's not going well.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right, here's a fun one.

[Brooks]

It's gonna be some hurt feelings.

[Andrew Holloway]

Which footballer would you choose to take over as the voice of Siri on your phone?

[Brooks]

Oh, I'm taking me.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I took you as well. I answered these myself. I took you as well.

[Andrew Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Who the dulce.

[Andrew Holloway]

Who'd they pick? Who'd the Foot Clan pick?

[Producer]

Well, Jason, you should have picked yourself, man. 39%. Jason is the winner.

[Brooks]

Congratulations.

[Mike Wright]

That's probably just because of the voice of public opinion. They want that as CEO.

[Producer]

No, no one wants that.

[Andrew Holloway]

How do I get to the local Albertsons?

[Mike Wright]

I'm sorry. I can't help you right now.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right, number four. This was a fun one. Which footballer would you choose to take with you as the third wheel on a first date?

[Brooks]

Oh, man, I'm such a good wingman.

[Andrew Holloway]

There's no way Mike loses this.

[Mike Wright]

No, there's no way Mike's losing this. It's. 75%. Is. What is it?

[Producer]

Mike is the winner.

[Brooks]

Yes.

[Producer]

47%.

[Brooks]

Oh, Brooklyn.

[Andrew Holloway]

That's pretty good. I mean, 47%.

[Brooks]

Your date will be so successful.

[Andrew Holloway]

How would you help somebody?

[Brooks]

Oh, I give the best advice.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah. Good, good. All right, here we go. Here's a fantasy one. Who would you pick to help you pick your lineup for weeks?

[Brooks]

The one that matters.

[Andrew Holloway]

16. I know.

[Brooks]

This is where my feelings are hurt.

[Andrew Holloway]

So which footballer do you pick to help you with your lineup for week 16?

[Producer]

You guys have a guess or.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah, just. Just tell us.

[Producer]

Just tell us, Jason. 50%.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. As I said, we have some great, smart listeners out there.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right, which footballer do you want to be stranded with in the wilderness?

[Brooks]

Oof.

[Andrew Holloway]

Who they pick? Brooks.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I'd go andy.

[Producer]

Mike Wright. 62%.

[Andrew Holloway]

That is a big one. You come across as an outdoorsman, apparently.

[Brooks]

It's just.

[Mike Wright]

It's the hair.

[Andrew Holloway]

It's the hair. A beard means you can handle yourself outdoors. Who do you pick to defend you in court? Which footballer?

[Producer]

This one is the biggest winner of them all.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, if it is, then I'm guessing it's Andy Go.

[Producer]

You are correct.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yes.

[Producer]

66%. Andy Holloway.

[Brooks]

It's all those Judge Giamatti cases.

[Andrew Holloway]

Take care of business. All right, but your entire strategy really.

[Brooks]

Relies on just complimenting the judge. I don't. Sure. I don't know if that'll work in the court of law.

[Andrew Holloway]

We'll do our best. All right. Who do you take on a road trip with you? Which footballer?

[Producer]

Oh, Jason Micro.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, me.

[Producer]

49%.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right. Which footballer do you take with you on a bank robbery?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's gotta be Mike.

[Brooks]

That's not Jason.

[Andrew Holloway]

I bet it's you.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah, you got a neck tattoo. I mean, come on. It's a bank robbery. Like, you gotta strike some fear.

[Brooks]

That means I'm easily identifiable, which means.

[Andrew Holloway]

You go down and they don't. So who did they pick?

[Producer]

Mike Wright. 54%.

[Brooks]

I'm not sure how I feel. That one. About that one. America.

[Andrew Holloway]

Here. Here's one. Which footballer do you pick to explain to you how babies are made?

[Mike Wright]

Ooh, that's. That's gotta be me. I'm making enough mistakes during that conversation where you'll just be entertained.

[Andrew Holloway]

Who was it?

[Producer]

Jason Moore. 50%.

[Andrew Holloway]

50%. All right, two more. Two more, and then we're into the AFC south preview. Which footballer do you take? Do you pick to take over at quarterback for your favorite NFL team?

[Mike Wright]

Otherwise, you failed.

[Producer]

Andy Holloway. 57.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right, last one.

[Brooks]

Wait, that one's only 57.

[Andrew Holloway]

That's high.

[Mike Wright]

That should be 100%.

[Brooks]

Yeah.

[Andrew Holloway]

Oh, I gotcha.

[Mike Wright]

Most people have not watched us throw.

[Andrew Holloway]

Hold on. Who was second on the quarterback? One.

[Producer]

Mike.

[Andrew Holloway]

Mike. All right. Sorry.

[Brooks]

Jay Wiley, the wily veteran.

[Andrew Holloway]

Which footballer did the Foot Clan choose to be stuck in a small room with for 48 hours?

[Brooks]

Should be none of us. That's the correct answer.

[Andrew Holloway]

Who'd they pick?

[Producer]

Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

There you go.

[Producer]

This one's pretty close. Mike. 38%. Andy. 32. Oh, Jason. 30.

[Mike Wright]

I am not the one you want there. I'm. No, that's way too far.

[Andrew Holloway]

Noxious gases.

[Mike Wright]

It says small.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right, it's time to move on.

[Mike Wright]

Let's get divisional. We are a football show, right?

[Brooks]

Yeah.

[Andrew Holloway]

That's a little fun. I wanted to know how people, you know, they get to know you after a while, apparently I can defend you in court and take care of your kids, maybe throw a football.

[Brooks]

All right, let's start Ultimate Dad.

[Andrew Holloway]

That was all dad stuff. Yeah. You can't be trusted in court.

[Brooks]

Who would you pick to remind you to change your underpants every day?

[Andrew Holloway]

All right. Andy Holloway, Houston. Let's talk about the Houston Texans. 97 last year won the division at 9 7. This year you talk about. I mean, the question for me, the headliner for me is the quarterback position. Last year, obviously, Brock Osweiler finished at the bottom of the league in basically any category you can imagine from the quarterback perspective, last year was just bad. But this year, now, you just knocked Julio Jones down. Sorry, Julio. On the desk. Tom Savage, Deshaun Watson are the quarterbacks in play in Houston. I just wonder if the recipe for success in Houston is going to stay the exact same. This is a team that led the league with almost 26 carries a game. It was not an efficient offense. And I want to know what you guys think about the main pieces in Houston this year, fantasy wise and really, what can fantasy owners expect to change from last year? Is there reason for enthusiasm about a guy like Lamar Miller or, or the tight ends who had such a large target share or the wide receivers who didn't have such a large target share? So what do you guys think?

[Brooks]

Go ahead, Jay.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, there is reason for optimism. You know, there's, there's two big changes in this offense, I think that will, you know, make an impact. One is Brock Osweiler leaving. And as we studied for this specific, you know, show, we saw how much was truly on Brock. You know, not everything can be blamed on Brock, but there was a lot. Like, Mike, you had some hot tight end stat percentage target numbers that showed it. That's not the Texans. That's not the Bill O'Brien scheme. That was Brock Osweiler targeting the tight ends like crazy. And so part of it is that. And then. And then the other part is the offensive coordinator. I know, I know the change kind of happened a little bit earlier last season where the play calling was Bill O'Brien, but, you know, their offensive coordinator is gone now, so They've got Bill O'Brien running the show. He's saying, look, if we're going down, we're going down with me. He has been a much higher producing offensive coordinator than the guy he's replacing right now. So there is reason to believe that the offense could be more productive, especially when you look at how inefficient they were. There's really nowhere to go. But that's good for Hopkins. Good for Lamar Miller.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah. You know, I went on Twitter this morning. I didn't even know we were talking about the AFC South. And I was mostly just trying to inflame Jason, posting some Lamar Miller stats. And we've talked a lot about Gurley, we've talked a lot about Lamar Miller. Both of them are players that were highly inefficient last year. High volume. A lot of what they did mirrored one another. And Lamar Miller in this offense first year was last year. High quantity of carries. But this is an offense where I looked this up earlier. One rushing touchdown every 68 carries. That is the worst. That is the worst in the league. And Mike looked this up earlier too. Houston has a very low quantity of inside the five carries from the running back position.

[Brooks]

What I was just going to throw out for Lamar Miller, he was. And while he was inefficient, his volume still did carry him through. He was a running back two or better in 10 and 14 games, but he was only in RB1 three times because the touchdowns were not there. Lamar Miller carried the ball 15 times inside the 10. That's one less carry than Tim Hightower. I mean, they could not get inside the 10. The offense was not strong enough. And the question is, can Deshaun Watson or Tom Savage improve on that just slightly? Because I don't think you need a huge upgrade at the quarterback position to improve the running game.

[Andrew Holloway]

You're still. The recipe is still going to be the same. And yes, maybe they are improved to some degree on the efficiency, a few more opportunities. They did draft Deontay Foreman in the third round. We saw Lamar Miller early in his career with Miami. Straight line runner, speed, big playability. The big plays weren't there last year. Same problem with Todd Gurley, by the way. No big plays. Lamar Miller couldn't make those big plays, big touchdowns. I worry about a change. Like if you want to lock him in as a 2, you're going to get it. That's not the problem for me. I just don't know if there's nothing to that offense that makes me say, you know, I feel like if you made an argument for Lamar Miller improving this year, you've got to make a similar argument for, you know, Deandre Hopkins taking a leap because you have more opportunities for that offense down in the red zone. I mean, they were, they were the worst team in the league, I think, with, you know, receptions per touchdown at the wide receiver position.

[Brooks]

But here. So here's What I'll say about Hopkins, he's a career 58.2% catch. That's. That's what his catch percentage is. Sorry I said that.

[Andrew Holloway]

No, I got you. I'm with you.

[Brooks]

Last year was sub 52% because of Brock.

[Andrew Holloway]

Stinky. Yeah, the Brock effect.

[Brooks]

But. And he had 150 targets last year. You know, if you give him his, his career catch percentage, he only bumps up to 87 receptions. Now when Hopkins was dominant in 2015.

[Mike Wright]

Didn'T he have like 180?

[Brooks]

He had 192 targets. I went and looked back and even that year, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones had more. But I went back in 2014, the highest target total, 184 to Demaryius Thomas. 2013, 181 to Pierre Garcon. In 2012, there was three guys who had 192 or better, and that was Calvin, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Marshall. And then back in 2011, Roddy White, target leader, down at 180. So just historically speaking, 190 plus targets is not the regular. And that's what Hopkins needed to be such a high level fantasy producer. Is he a great, possibly elite level talent? Yes, I completely agree with that, but I don't think that he's going to see the passing volume he needs.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah, and that's been the problem. This is a team that averaged 0.4 touchdowns from the wide receiver position per game. That's not, that's poor. That's problematic.

[Mike Wright]

Go up.

[Andrew Holloway]

It can go up. But again, like you said, what is the. They won the division. This is not talking about a team that needs to come in and necessarily make a monster change. JG Watt comes back. I think there's concern now for the.

[Brooks]

People who are holding out hope for The Mad Hatter, C.J. fedorowicz or Ryan Griffin. So last year, those two fellas, those two tight ends accounted for 28% of Houston's targets. I mean, that's, that's a pretty high share. You go back to 2015 and those two fellas, granted Ryan Griffin missed some time, accounted for 9% of the targets. 2014, those two guys, plus Garrett Graham, who was the leading tight end on the team, 11%. So what Jason was referencing is it. This doesn't sound like It's a Bill O'Brien scheme where we want to feed the tight end targets. This sounded like Brock Osweiler was checking down, was a coward and will not throw it up to Hopkins.

[Mike Wright]

Not only that, but his, his checking down, if you will. It was a problem for the running backs as well because, you know, a lot's been made of oh, Lamar Miller was inefficient, only 6.1, you know, yards per reception, but it's okay. Well, yeah, but he was the best at the running back position on that team. You know, it's like, okay, sure, he was inefficient. So was it. Alfred Blue was 3.3 and that's a guy who the year prior without Brock Osler was 7.3 yards per reception. So Brock being gone is going to be good. Hopkins, I agree completely. He's not going to have the targets to rebound to 2015. It's just not going to happen. Now, will Will some of those tight end targets go his way? He have a better season than he did last year, certainly, but he's being severely overdrafted. He is the 12th wide receiver being drafted off the board right now as a wide receiver. 1. I can't imagine him returning that value this year. I feel like you're drafting his ceiling.

[Andrew Holloway]

Playing in a division with the Colts with, you know, the Titans who should have a very good offense again, you wonder if they're going to be put in a position to have to stretch the offense and whether they can do it or not.

[Brooks]

Who starts week one at the quarterback?

[Andrew Holloway]

I think it's Savage. I think it'll be Savage. I don't think Watson's going to win it in preseason. I don't. Before we move on, talk about the Titans. Gentlemen, I want to talk about Pristine Auction, the supporter of today's show. Yes, love Pristine Auction. Right now on the homepage you can find hundreds of daily auctions on autographed authentic sports memorabilia. There is an Odell Beckham Jr. Signed Giants full size helmet with a visor. On the homepage there is a Carson Wentz signed full size speed ice helmet. So this is the white helmet with the silver wings. Yeah, they've got a lot of unique helmets and things like that. Autographed, authentic, amazing sports memorabilia. You got some Drew Brees gear on there, Bo Jackson. And then if you're into baseball, you got the Buster Posey jersey on the homepage. Hundreds of daily auctions. It's fun to get on there and check it out, let them know the fantasy footballers sent you. That's Pristine Auction.

[Brooks]

Say the Pristine Auction that the account to make it is free to bid on things. Is free if you don't win. Nothing lost.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah, there's no gimmicks. It's just a really, really cool, great company and we have filled up our Studio here with amazing Pristine auction.

[Mike Wright]

It's not full.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah. You have a Lamar Miller jersey sitting in our studio. Yeah. One of your favorite players.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andrew Holloway]

Pristineauction.com P R I S T I N E auction.com all right, let's talk about the Titans. And I think the Titans are one of the most interesting fantasy relevant teams in football because you have a world of hype that you can write right into that roster. I mean, who doesn't like Marcus Mariota? Who doesn't like that potential and efficiency? Who doesn't love Derrick Henry waiting in the wings behind a super fantasy relevant demarco Murray? Eric Decker arrives. Corey Davis arrives. But the question that I have is, look, how much are they going to pass the ball because it has to go up?

[Mike Wright]

Certainly does.

[Andrew Holloway]

Because that efficiency level in Tennessee was through the roof. This is a team that Marcus Mariota had averaged around 18 receptions a game. You compare that with somebody like Drew Brees, that's 11 less per game than Drew.

[Brooks]

Completions.

[Andrew Holloway]

Completions, yes. What did I say?

[Brooks]

Reception.

[Andrew Holloway]

Well, that. That's tough.

[Brooks]

His team was average.

[Andrew Holloway]

He threw and caught.

[Brooks]

No.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yes, you're right. Completions per game. So you're talking about basically breeze having an extra 30% right every single game. So you have to be hyper efficient or you have to increase passing volume. If you think that efficiency was a bit of a, an outlier. If you know you had the efficiency of a guy, Nick Foles, years ago. Now I'm not comparing him Nick Foles, but at the time, that efficiency caused people to draft Foles very high. So how much are the Titans really going to pass the ball with all these new weapons with Corey Davis and Taiwan Taylor, Eric Decker, there's no way.

[Mike Wright]

They'Re going to run the ball at the same clip versus their past. Because you could see with they want to take the reins off of Mariota a little bit. You don't go out and spend, you know, your top 10 pick on a wide receiver, then your third round pick on a wide receiver, then go get Eric Decker to just continue to be a run the ball team. You're saying as a franchise, we think Mariota is a, is a really good quarterback. We're going to give him the tools to open up a little bit. Now they'll still be, they're not going to say, oh, we're not running the ball. We're going to be a pass first team.

[Brooks]

Exotic smash.

[Mike Wright]

Exotic smash mouth is going to get a little bit more exotic with the, with the passing scheme. So look for the running Back, you know, the rushing totals from the running back position to probably go down this, this coming season.

[Andrew Holloway]

They average 25 carries a game. They went 9 and 7. Mariota coming off the injury, you think that they're going to adjust a winning recipe?

[Mike Wright]

No, I don't think they're going to, you know, forcibly adjust. But if Mariota is able to pass the ball easier with better weapons. Remember last year his, his best weapon was Rashard Matthews, you know, and Tajie Sharp. Obviously the Titans didn't think those were good weapons because they went out and replaced them with, with three other guys. So I'm just saying as, as he succeeds. It's not that they're going to say hey we're, we're, we're going to run the ball less. It's just passing is more efficient in the NFL if you need to score points and you need to move the ball, you're going to end up passing the ball.

[Andrew Holloway]

And you're saying now they can.

[Brooks]

Yes, that's what I'm saying.

[Andrew Holloway]

So Mike, we talked about Eric Decker earlier. If you compare kind of the proportions of pass run of the Tennessee Titans and the Buffalo Bills, they're very similar. So would you have felt the same level of excitement for Eric Decker if he ended up in Buffalo than if he ended up in Tennessee?

[Brooks]

I like him more in Tennessee and it's not necessarily the volume because when it comes to a, when it comes comes to fantasy quarterbacks. Yeah. I mean obviously it's nice to have a guy on a passive team but I think efficiency is equally if not more important. We've seen quarterbacks like Tony Roma where if you and Dak Prescott last year, if you're efficient, it doesn't matter and that you get into positive game scripts for the quarterback that means that they're scoring points and maybe towards in the fourth quarter then they get to run the clock out with a running back. But being a great quarterback, inefficient quarterback has never hurt a guy like Tom Brady. He still puts a fantasy point. So I like Eric Decker going to the efficient Mariota. My, I've my word of caution for this team is on Mariota himself where I like the player. I think that he is evolving and he will be one of the top quarterbacks in the next couple years. But people got very excited last year when he went on his run and I wanted to run through the defenses that he played in that eight week stretch. Miami and I will also give you these are the their ranking and allowing points to a quarterback Fantasy Points Miami 30th, Cleveland 32nd, the Colts 23rd. Jacksonville was pretty solid. They were sixth, Chargers 16th, Green Bay 26th, Indy again and then Chicago 21st. So they in that span that he played a top half defense once and he was the QB11 that week. I mean he was absolutely destroying bad defenses. Now is that bad? No. I want a quarterback who can destroy inferior competition. But I'm not going to allow that stretch to skew what I to skew me thinking into. Mariota has this top five potential when the other times he, when he wasn't in that stretch, he was essentially a sub 24 quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he had the wide.

[Brooks]

He had really, really bad.

[Mike Wright]

He had the widest splits between top half defenses and bottom half defenses. So that is something you need to keep in mind. And when you look to the upcoming season, the first four weeks I was.

[Andrew Holloway]

Just about to say not games that you have a guy coming off an injury and be able to put up big numbers.

[Mike Wright]

Right. He's got the over the. Over the first four weeks. The 30th according to he plays Oakland.

[Andrew Holloway]

Jacksonville, Seattle and Houston.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's trouble as far as against the quarterback position last year. So it might be hard to get off the ground for Mariota. He might be a great trade asset or even a waiver wire pickup when, when someone gets upset and drops him. If he has back, if he has back to back just albatross games, you're going to be able to get him cheap.

[Andrew Holloway]

They play the NFC west this year as well. So he gets to play Seattle and Arizona, Los Angeles.

[Brooks]

So the final thing I want to talk about for the Titans, unless you guys have something else, but it's Delaney Walker.

[Andrew Holloway]

Well, I wanted to bring that up. My exact question was is it fair to predict the demise of Delaney Walker when he was fourth in fantasy in terms of points per game at the tight end position? Anthony Fasano's gone. They drafted a third round tight end. What do you think about the Delaney Walker demise with Corey Davis, Decker, Walker and then Matthews breaking out in the second half of the year.

[Brooks]

The amount of weapons that they've added is absolutely troublesome for Walker and he's fine. The problem is you're spending that middle round pick and here are some tight ends going right around him in the draft. So he's the, he's currently the tight end seven according to fantasy football calculator right in front of him. And I'm saying not even around in front of him. Tyler Ifert and this is PPR by the way tight end 9. Kyle Rudolph, tight end 10. Hunter Henry, tight end 11. Zach Ertz. Guys who I think are very intriguing, I think they have a at least equal upside to what Walker has now. Walker has history if you want to go back and lean on that. But I'm not going to pay a middle round pick for this. For the seventh or sixth tight end, I want a guy who I can drive late and can explode or I'm just not even going to worry about that position. It's just, it's too much of a premium unless I'm getting a top three guy.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. @ the end of the year, Delaney Walker will be all right. He'll be a tight end one. But you won't have felt it through most of the year as he's just kind of this 60 reception type of guy. Unless you're talking about, you know, that that crazy abnormal year he had two years ago.

[Andrew Holloway]

All right. It's worth noting as well that last year the offensive line in Tennessee was ranked fourth by Pro Football Focus. This year they are currently ranked number one. Yeah, I'm sorry, they were one last year. They're four right now. So they're a great offensive line. Yes. All right, let's talk about the Indianapolis Colts last year. This is a team that, you know, they could pass the ball. We know the story with Andrew Lucky. What's the latest in Andrew Luck and his injury recovery? Do fantasy owners have a reason to be afraid?

[Brooks]

I was going to say that the we got to talk about the Andrew Luck news of he's starting training camp on the PUP and which that does not mean he's missing six games. By the way. The training camp PUP and the in season PUP are very different. If you're on the PUP list in training camp, you can be pulled off at any moment. And Stephen Holder, he is a Indianapolis Colts beat reporter. He was attending Chris Ballard's press conference and now Chris Ballard did not say this and Stephen Holder was very specific that this was not mentioned. But Stephen Holder's take as a reporter trying to read between the lines, he believes that Andrew Luck may not play at all in the preseason, but he should be ready for week one. However, a quarterback not getting any preseason time, a little practice time to get things going again with the receivers. Andy, you've been very, very strong on Andrew Luck coming into the season as the Andrew Luck guy this year. Is that any cause for concern for you?

[Andrew Holloway]

It's cause to pay attention. I don't think the actual playing in the preseason games is going to be the defining factor for any fear that I have drafting Andrew Luck. I think that if he has practice time, if he's trending the right direction, if everything is going towards the beginning of the season, I'm going to be comfortable with him sitting out those games. I don't think that they want to take a chance with the guy that is their franchise in every sense. So it's going to come down to is he practicing? I don't care if he plays in those games right now. I'm not adjusting him. Do I want to see him healthy and practicing? Sure. But we've been down this road with injuries before. Taking your time on these quarterbacks, limiting reps, making sure he's healthy. My concern is those 16 games during the regular season. So I want to bring up the running game in Indianapolis and I want to ask this question to you because unlike, you know, Tennessee, who we just talked through having quite a few changes on the offense, you know, adding a number of pieces, it's really not the case in Indianapolis. You didn't see a big splash made at the running back position. Yes, they drafted Marlon Mack, but you have Frank Gore and Robert Turbin, who may be the least sexy duo in the league. Efficient, you know, are not efficient. But. But producers for fantasy, you don't have a big change at the wide receiver core other than Moncrief being healthy into going into a season. You sign Kamara Akin. So my question for this is, let's say Frank Gore does hit a wall. What does that look like? What is a break?

[Brooks]

Wall comes down, my friend. Frank Gore is not stopped by the wall.

[Andrew Holloway]

He runs through it. But if, if you know at some point he's going to. Fred Jackson. Okay. He's going to hit the wall. Where eventually. Look, we all made the jokes about it. Fred Jackson, Fred Jackson, he'll play forever. Well, he's not playing anymore. And if Frank Gore was to hit a wall, how does that play out in fantasy football team?

[Brooks]

They saying who takes over.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah. What are the.

[Mike Wright]

What does that look like for Frank Gore? What does he become?

[Brooks]

I think it's all of the above.

[Andrew Holloway]

Well, how does it shake out? Does Robert Turban have a bunch of fantasy relevance? Is Marlon Mack getting first and second down carries somehow?

[Brooks]

Yeah, I'd say that even if Frank or hits the wall this year, I bet they still have him grinded out. I don't see a changing of the guard coming for this team. However, Robert Turban has been talked up very frequently this offseason. You hear about Turbin almost as much as I hear positive things about Doug Martin, which, yes, that's what a team is supposed to do. You're supposed to talk up someone who's in the back, not your starter. But Robert Turbin, over the final seven weeks of the season, he got at least one carry inside the 10 every single game. So we lament the touchdown vulture, but Robert Turban is legitimately turned into a touchdown vulture that the Colts, they, once they get in close, they want to give the ball to Turbine. And that gives you that cap on Frank Gore because Gore is not going to bust off 30 yard touchdowns with any kind of regularity. Marlon Mack, nice player, he's athletic, he's got some juice, but I don't, I don't think he's anything but a change of pace. Maybe get some receptions here and there type of guy. So it's Frank Gore bust for me on this, on this running back crew.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we joke that Frank Gore is and always will be the running back 12 because that's kind of where he's finished the last two years. But the reality is I moved him down in my rankings in prep for this show because the more that I dive in and look, I think the touchdown opportunities, he will still have touchdown opportunities, but they're not entirely his. And the workload, I just don't believe he's going to be able to have 265 carries. And if he has the 220 carries because of his inefficiency since he's been a Colt, you know, he's never cracked that 4 yards of carry. He's been at, you know, 3, 8, 37 range and that's just not going to get it done. He'll have enough volume to be a, you know, an RB2 on your fantasy team. He's still, you know, he's like the exact opposite of Delaney Walker to me. His value and where he's going in a draft is going to make sure he's probably on my team and is playing, you know, in that flex position or as my RB2 or if I have to start three RBs, he's a great option. But his upside I just don't think is there. Even with this offense.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah, this offense is a passing offense. I mean that's what you have to look to. Bottom third in the league in rushing attempts. Last year their defense was bottom third in almost every major category. So, you know, unless that offensive line improves, which it hasn't really. I mean, do you guys disagree with that? Last year they were ranked 25th. They're in the 20s still now according to Pro Football Focus.

[Brooks]

I would agree with that.

[Andrew Holloway]

You know, this is a team that's going to lean on Andrew Luck. We know the power of Ty Hilton in that offense. Dante Moncrief is healthy. I really like him as a value. If he can stay healthy, obviously. Kamara Akin. Here's the last question I want to ask you guys. Only the Chargers average more tight end touchdowns per game than the Colts did last year. The Colts averaged 0.8 touchdowns per game from the tight end position. That's 12 total on the year. They also caught 73% of their targets, which was third best in the league. Obviously helps to have Andrew Luck, but you did have efficiency at the tight end position. Dwayne Allen is gone. Jim Doyle.

[Brooks]

Jack Doyle.

[Andrew Holloway]

What did I say?

[Brooks]

Jim.

[Andrew Holloway]

Jack Doyle.

[Brooks]

Jim and Jack. It's. It's interrelaceable really.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah. Jack Doyle, 54 was 54% of the offense last year in terms of targets at the tight end position.

[Brooks]

So he's my man.

[Andrew Holloway]

Is he your man?

[Brooks]

He's my man from the Colts offense if I want to tight end. And we have seen just over the years Andrew Luck can support two tight ends, which is kind of bizarre for fantasy. But Dwayne Allen, because he was a touchdown machine and Kobe Fleener was. He was fine. But I mean like he's a usable startable tight end. And it's, you know, Jack Doyle, that's.

[Andrew Holloway]

Actually what's printed right under Kobe Fleeners, his football card. Usable decent tight end. And then they Pre print the 53.

[Brooks]

Receptions and Eric Swope. I lean towards Jack Doyle. They gave him the money. I'm going to follow that. And I think that if anybody is.

[Andrew Holloway]

Going to Jack Doyle a top five tight end potential.

[Mike Wright]

No, I don't think so.

[Brooks]

But tight end one for sure.

[Mike Wright]

He's got the potential to be a tight end one. I don't think he's locked and loaded the way a lot of people.

[Brooks]

I'm saying he has that potential.

[Mike Wright]

Some of it's going to come down to Dante Moncrief. I mean you saw pretty decent split there when Dante Moncrief was not there. Jack Doyle, when it came to the end zone and the touchdowns, they, you know, he, he doubled his output, you know, on an average per game touchdown without Dante Moncrief than when Moncrief was playing. So if Moncrief is. Is back and is healthy, that's where Andrew Luck wants to go. You know, in the red Zone. Not Doyle. Doyle will still get his, but not at the same clip.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah, I think that's a fair.

[Brooks]

I have one question. We didn't even mention his name. He was a first round pick. Wide receiver Philip Dorsett. He played on 70% of snaps last year. 70% of all the Colts offensive snaps. 59 targets in a pass. First offense with Andrew Luck, how do you only draw 59 targets?

[Andrew Holloway]

You. He had that Harry Potter invisibility cloak on. I mean, that is. That's rough. That is not confidence from your quarterback.

[Brooks]

No. And so I was going to say, do you. You feel like Aiken's going to take that third wide receiver job or is it?

[Mike Wright]

I think he should because Aiken's a good, a good wide receiver.

[Andrew Holloway]

Akin's is opposite from Philip Dorsett as you could possibly get. He's reliable, less athletic, less of a burner at this stage in his career.

[Brooks]

Aiken's pretty athletic. I like him, but I would. I think that Aiken is a nice, very, very cheap. I mean, essentially free and draft. Just a nice flyer to grab a piece of the Colts offense.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andrew Holloway]

I'm not going to grab that deep, maybe, but you're not taking him over in a draft. Let's say you had to flex Aiken or Doyle. You're flexing Doyle, right?

[Brooks]

Yeah. I'm talking about in the draft. I want to see week one what they do. He's probably in my first cut spot. I'm just saying that I don't know if he takes that job if something. If Moncrief is not right.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah. That's going to be settled more in camp, I think.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And I'm not convinced that the third wide receiver role is as valuable with the way that the Colts, you know, run their packages as it is, as it is elsewhere. They, you know, he throws the ball to other positions. One.

[Brooks]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

One very last thing to say. I meant to bring it up on Frank Gore, but when we talk about all the touchdowns. Frank Gore last year had four receiving touchdowns. That is very abnormal. The last five years prior to that, one of which was with the Colts, he had three combined. So if you're just looking to hit.

[Andrew Holloway]

He finds a way to end up at RB12. Whether you like it or not.

[Brooks]

It's not.

[Andrew Holloway]

Do it on the ground. He may kick a few.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. He'll do what it takes.

[Brooks]

It's not abnormal for Andrew Luck to throw touchdowns to the running back, though, that we've seen that be a prominent role for that offense.

[Andrew Holloway]

We need to move on to Jacksonville. Guys, look, the CDC was called in. Everybody in Jacksonville was infected with a case of the Bortles last year. And it trickled down. It didn't matter if you were Alan Robinson. It didn't matter if you were TJ Yeldin. It destroyed you as an offense. Blake Bortles was patently terrible last season.

[Brooks]

When you catch the Bortles, it results in a really abnormal elbow throwing motion.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah, that's symptom number one. Then Allen Robinson struggled last year. 2.9 yards after the catch. I thought that was one of the most insane statistics. That's. That's down there in Mike Evans range. Yards after the catch, only 5.8 yards per target. That was third worst in the league. Allen Robinson, the year before his big breakout year, you had a high touchdown total and you had big plays. You had the ability for Bortles and Robinson to connect on some of these deep passes. Last year. Guess, guess. What percentage of passes over 20 yards were caught? Oh, so when Bortles targeted somebody 20 plus yards down the field, what percentage of those passes were?

[Brooks]

I do not know. Give it to me.

[Andrew Holloway]

7%.

[Mike Wright]

What? What?

[Andrew Holloway]

So you can say whatever you want about how talented Alan Robinson is, but there was a problem last year and it wasn't just Alan Robinson dropping passes or, you know, Alan Hearns, his injury. This offense, to me, you know, you had 37 attempts a game last year by Blake Bortles. I was going to say, how does that all that.

[Brooks]

And yet Blake Bortles was a quarterback. One for fans.

[Andrew Holloway]

He was, he was. But this is a team. Look, if you think I'm just bashing Jacksonville, these two gentlemen next to me will tell you how much I love Jacksonville. Yes, I was a Gus Bradley apologist for the majority of my adult life. And yet I don't know what you're going to see from the upside of the passing offense in Jacksonville this year. They want to be a more defensive team. They have a great defense on paper, you bring in Clayus Campbell and other defensive weapons. Great draft, you bring in Leonard Fournette, a strong push towards the running game, towards taking pressure off of 37 attempts a game. So let's say you take seven attempts a game off of Bortles. That seems reasonable, right? 30 attempts a game, that's still a good chunk. Now you're asking Blake Bortles to be efficient to give you fantasy value, not just a garbage man.

[Brooks]

I'm not sure he even knows the definition of efficient. Yeah, no.

[Andrew Holloway]

So.

[Mike Wright]

So based on. Based on your stat of his Deep passing. I wanted to look up pro football focus and how they ranked him as as a deep passer. And then I caught this. His quarterback rating as a. As as a deep passer, 6.4. I've never seen. I've never. I didn't know the numbers could go that low into single digits. Congratulations, Blake. You've done it.

[Brooks]

You did it, man.

[Andrew Holloway]

But here's the under 10. They would just write bad.

[Mike Wright]

Here's the reality though. They picked up his fifth year option. They, you know, I think they are quarterback. I think they are committed to him and he's going to have the opportunity. Is there any chance it was the shoulder last year and two years ago Blake is, you know, actually he's a good quarterback and last year he was injured.

[Brooks]

Well, I wouldn't say he was good two years ago. I would say he was fantasy wise. He was fantasy wise.

[Mike Wright]

No. But as a second year NFL quarterback, yes.

[Andrew Holloway]

Everybody said, hey, he made a step, a step forward. Absolutely.

[Brooks]

That step did not turn into any kind of victories. And no. Which I don't. I'm not going to put all that on a quarterback shoulder. There's a lot of other pieces but I just, I don't think he's a good quarterback. And we, we have actually we had this debate for a draft for the Scott Fishbowl. We were looking at who do we want to have on our team where this is. We're pretty close to locked into this quarterback because the waiver wire is barren. We're looking between and it's Blake Bortles and Carson Palmer and Andy and I, our first gut instinct of saying why we would take Palmer over Bortles in this type of a league where you're committed say, I don't, I don't know if the Jacksonville Jaguars will be starting Blake Bortles in come week eight.

[Andrew Holloway]

The head coach, Doug Marone, first full season. Tom Coughlin running things over there in Jacksonville, committed to the running game. I don't think that historically you have the patience level with Tom Coughlin to let a guy struggle and do what he did last year. If he comes out this year and he's a different player, if the arm motion is fixed, you notice how many times I'm saying the word if. It doesn't make it a good fantasy option.

[Mike Wright]

So two players we just talked about that are in such identical situations of two years ago, they were great. Last year they stunk. What's going to happen? Who do you guys take if you're on the clock and you're looking at DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah, I'm going to take Alan Robinson in that situation. That comes down to 37 attempts a game last year for Blake Borros, so. And Doug Marone. When Doug Marone took over, Alan Robinson improved in the second half of the season.

[Brooks]

That's true.

[Andrew Holloway]

He knew how to use him. And I think you saw more of what we came wasn't the quote was.

[Brooks]

Essentially, oh yeah, we started moving them around the formation.

[Mike Wright]

They actually started.

[Brooks]

You actually did coaching.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah. You have to see Jeff Fisher was.

[Brooks]

Baffled by that comment, by the way.

[Andrew Holloway]

So yeah, no, it's a good question between those two, but I think, I think I would take Alan Robinson in that situation. But it's close.

[Mike Wright]

No, I side there as well because at least when we, when we talk about those two guys, you know that Allen Robinson has done it with Blake Bortles before, whereas you don't know, you know, DeAndre Hopkins has a bunch of question marks. That being said, Alan Robinson. Alan Robinson is being drafted as the 18th wide receiver overall versus the 12th as Hopkins.

[Brooks]

Speaking of a guy who has done it before with Blake Bortles, that's Alan Hearn. Yeah, yeah. Moving forward, Alan Hearns. When Alan Robinson has big year. Alan Hearns also had a big year. Thousand yards, 10 touchdowns last year through his seven healthy games to start the year, 31 receptions, 443 yards. Yes, that doesn't sound great, but that's a pace of 70 plus receptions over a thousand yards yet again before he had his concussion problems, his hamstring problems. And Marquis Lee had a bit of a breakout. So is there, if it's Alan Hearns or Marquis Lee, where are you leaning on those two guys?

[Mike Wright]

I definitely lean Alan Hearns because this is not going to be a volume offense. Like Andy was saying, Blake Bortles is not going to throw that much. So I'm going with the guy who has more touchdown potential versus needs, you know, needs to be peppered with targets a lot.

[Andrew Holloway]

Yeah, I want to be, I want to be careful. I mean, I didn't say it's not going to be a volume offense. I said that 37 attempts a game is hopefully going to come down. But if your team, if their defense can't get it done, you're going to be put in a tough position.

[Brooks]

I mean, you can't fold the papers out there.

[Andrew Holloway]

I would take Lee in that situation, but I don't have enough confidence in what's happening with Blake Bortles to be on board with any of those guys. I don't want to leave Jacksonville without talking about the number one pick in Jacksonville's draft. Leonard Fournette, number four pick overall. This is an offensive line last year that ranked 22nd in the league as of right now. You know, they picked up Cam Robinson in the second round. They lost Luke Joko, which is great. Yeah. And you have a situation where Leonard Fournette, to me, the eye test, we talk so much about him in the rookie shows, but we sometimes we forget to talk about these guys again as we head into the season. One of the best pure combinations of speed and power that I've ever seen coming out of college. You can question the situation, but I think he's going to have a really, really good rookie season. I think that are going to give him every opportunity to be both the face of the franchise and the kind of major cog in this offense. Where do you guys sit on Fournette's upside this year? I know that you've both been more hesitant, maybe because of offensive line play, but what is the ceiling? I mean, what are the possible outcomes for Leonard Fournette?

[Mike Wright]

Is he ceiling would be a top five running back because he's got that talent and you know, if you put the over under it, 270 carries, I think I would lean towards the over if they're in enough game scripts to even, you know, allow to do that. So the ceiling is through the roof because his talent is through the roof. I'm a big believer in Leonard Fournette as a football player. I believe he's going to translate to the NFL. The whole hesitation for me is just the offense will, you know, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense is not the Dallas Cowboys offense. It's not the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. And recency bias makes a lot of people want to overvalue that number for a running back pick. Especially when people like us say, yeah, he's really talented and he's worth that. You know, I think you're going to have to take the risk when you're in your draft to pull the trigger. Probably late third round and say I believe he's going third. I think come draft day, I think.

[Brooks]

Come it's going to be late second.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, really?

[Brooks]

Yeah. That's where he's already going on fantasy football calculator. Yeah, 208. I mean his, his range of outcomes is pretty wide because I'm with Jason. I believe in the talent. But this is, this is almost identical to Todd Gurley situation last year. It's a bad team, good defense, but it's a bad team and a bad offensive line. I'm not spending a second round pick on that running back when behind him is Lamar Miller. And if I wanted to take a running back on a bad team that had a good offensive line, Isaiah Cruell is also going behind him. I just, I have. I'm nervous to go in on Leonard Fournette where he's going to end up in drafts, which is not comfortable with.

[Andrew Holloway]

Leonard Fournette as your RB1.

[Brooks]

That's a very correct statement.

[Andrew Holloway]

Okay. All right. I'm going to hold off on having us make division winner picks until later on this offseason. I don't want to make the call right now, sure. But it should be a battle in the AFC south, no doubt. So if you have other thoughts on these AFC south teams, feel free to tweet us Heffballers. Get in contact with us on Twitter. You can also check out our fantasy football community [e-mail] we have community forums, we have community leagues, so foot clan leagues with tons of players that are listeners of the show that are committed to playing. So you don't have two or three people in your league that are kind of tuned out by week three, but you have a fun, engaging league and that's what this show is all about, is helping you enjoy your fantasy football season. It's about that journey, not just the destination, but we try to get you that trophy as well. So you guys have any parting words on today's episode?

[Brooks]

No. Thank you for supporting the show.

[Andrew Holloway]

We'll be back Thursday.

[Brooks]

Make sure you check out playdraft if.

[Andrew Holloway]

You need somebody to watch your kids, I'm here playdraft.com ballers for all your.

[Brooks]

Best balls football needs and see you next time. Goodbye.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.