Fantasy Football 2017 - The “My Guys” Episode + Early Targets

Summary

Fantasy Football 2017 - The “My Guys” Episode + Early Targets
Podcast: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Release Date: August 22, 2017

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Introduction

In the August 22, 2017 episode of Fantasy Footballers, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright dive deep into their personal selections—referred to as "My Guys"—for the upcoming fantasy football season. This episode is designed to help listeners identify undervalued players who could provide significant returns, thereby enhancing their chances of winning their leagues.

Targeting Team Defenses

Before delving into their personal picks, the hosts discuss strategies for selecting team defenses in fantasy drafts. The conversation emphasizes the importance of considering both elite defenses and those with favorable early-season matchups.

Jason Moore begins by advocating for super elite defenses like the Denver Broncos, especially if you're able to secure them without overreaching in your draft. He states:

"I'm looking for a super elite defense. Let's say I'm, you know, I drafted first and I've got that last turn and everybody's picking their defense at the end. Then, you know, I'll grab the Denver Broncos because they're, they're a great defense and hopefully, yeah, they repeat."
(03:29)

If an elite defense isn't available, Moore suggests targeting defenses with strong early schedules:

"I'm immediately looking at that week one schedule or possibly the first, you know, week one, two, three, you know, the schedule to open the year."
(04:00)

Mike Wright adds to the conversation by recommending the Miami Dolphins, noting their favorable matchups and the positive impact on both their defense and offensive players:

"I feel like the offensive players for Miami will do well, which creates a positive situation for your defense. If you know what the other offense has to do, you can key up on just sacking the quarterback. Get some turnovers."
(05:05)

Andy Holloway cautions against drafting great defenses with challenging early matchups, using the Kansas City Chiefs as an example:

"The worst team you can draft in your fantasy draft for defense is the Kansas City Chiefs. Because they're a great defense...you got to play them against New England, not me. So then why draft them?"
(06:01)

"My Guys" Selections

Each host presents three players they're particularly excited about for the 2017 fantasy season. These selections are based on the players' potential to outperform their current draft positions, offering significant value to fantasy teams.

Jason Moore's Selections

1. Zach Ertz (Tight End, Philadelphia Eagles)

   Ertz is Moore's top pick, praised for his consistency and potential to be a top-five tight end. Moore argues that Ertz's overall season performance, when accounting for missed games, positions him as a reliable and high-value option:

   "Zach Ertz was great the whole year long, but he was injured and he missed a couple games after that week one... he's in the ninth round. I think that is great value."
   (12:07)

2. Mark Ingram (Running Back, New Orleans Saints)

   Moore defends Mark Ingram against prevailing skepticism, highlighting his consistent workload and role in the Saints' offense:

   "Mark Ingram is a guy that's being disrespected right now. If you want to draft him, you can get him way after Adrian Peterson in the draft right now, which I think is silly."
   (26:57)

3. Dak Prescott (Quarterback, Dallas Cowboys)

   As a rising star, Dak Prescott is lauded for his rookie performance and potential to continue delivering consistent fantasy points:

   "Dak Prescott is a great quarterback. He has the third best fantasy season since the year 2000 for a rookie quarterback... he is legit good."
   (38:41)

Mike Wright's Selections

1. Michael Crabtree (Wide Receiver, San Francisco 49ers)

   Crabtree is highlighted for his route-running prowess and red-zone efficiency, making him a valuable asset despite being undervalued in drafts:

   "In 14 games, including missed weeks, he would have been 89 total receptions... putting him in half point PPR as the number two tight end overall."
   (13:43)

2. Martavis Bryant (Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers)

   Bryant is presented as a high-ceiling, risky pick due to off-field issues but with significant upside if he overcomes these hurdles:

   "...his production has been absolutely outrageous. In 2015... he put up a line of 48 receptions, 760 yards and six touchdowns."
   (30:18)

3. Stefan Diggs (Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings)

   Diggs is lauded for his consistent target share and potential for explosive performances, making him a strong late-round value:

   "He had a three game stretch where every single game he's over 10 targets a game. They had a sensational rookie year... he is projecting wide receiver one for Stefan Diggs."
   (42:54)

Andy Holloway's Selections

1. Todd Gurley (Running Back, Los Angeles Rams)

   Gurley is chosen for his high usage and potential rebound after a challenging previous season, backed by a new offensive scheme:

   "I think he's your guy and I love him... this is where he belongs."
   (17:29)

2. Doug Martin (Running Back, Baltimore Ravens)

   Martin is seen as a redemption story, poised to return to his top form after overcoming personal issues and suspension:

   "Doug Martin is one year removed from 1400 plus yards in 2015... he's going to be the guy."
   (34:44)

3. Cam Newton (Quarterback, Carolina Panthers)

   Newton is praised for his dual-threat capabilities and the evolution of his role in the Panthers' offense, despite criticisms of his passing accuracy:

   "Cam Newton, I'm telling you, come and ride with me... he's a ninth, he's almost a ninth round pick."
   (46:14)

In-Depth Discussions and Insights

Zach Ertz vs. Tight End Values:
Moore defends Ertz against narratives that downplay his early-season performance, emphasizing his consistent production and undervaluation in drafts.

Mark Ingram's Underappreciated Role:
Despite concerns about workload distribution with Adrian Peterson's presence, Moore argues that Ingram remains a reliable RB with significant opportunities, especially in a high-powered Saints offense.

Dak Prescott's Rookie Potential:
Prescott is highlighted as a transformative rookie quarterback who offers stability and consistent fantasy points, making him a valuable late-round QB option.

Michael Crabtree's Route Mastery:
Crabtree's technical skills and red-zone efficiency make him a high-upside pick, especially in leagues that reward receptions (PPR formats).

Martavis Bryant's High Ceiling:
Bryant is presented as a gamble with considerable upside, contingent on him returning to form and overcoming his suspension-related setbacks.

Stefan Diggs' Target Share:
Diggs' consistent target volume and potential for explosive games position him as a strong late-round wide receiver, particularly in improved Minnesota offense settings.

Todd Gurley's Rebound Potential:
After a disappointing previous season, Gurley is seen as a top option thanks to increased opportunities and a revamped offensive scheme aimed at maximizing his talents.

Doug Martin's Redemption Arc:
Martin's ability to return to his previous form after personal and professional challenges makes him a compelling mid-round running back pick with upside.

Cam Newton's Dual-Threat Efficiency:
Despite criticisms of his passing accuracy, Newton's rushing ability and evolving role in the Panthers' offense make him a valuable quarterback option with high fantasy potential.

Conclusion

The "My Guys" episode offers a comprehensive look into each host's strategic picks for the 2017 fantasy football season. By focusing on undervalued and high-potential players, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright provide listeners with actionable insights to enhance their fantasy rosters. Whether it's Zach Ertz's tight end reliability, Mark Ingram's steady role, or Cam Newton's dual-threat capabilities, the episode equips fantasy managers with the knowledge needed to make informed draft decisions.

Listeners are encouraged to share their thoughts and engage with the Fantasy Footballers community across various platforms, ensuring they stay connected and updated throughout the fantasy season.

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Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore on Zach Ertz:

  "Zach Ertz was great the whole year long... he is being drafted as the 27th running back being drafted right now."
  (12:07, 26:57)

• Andy Holloway on Drafting Defenses:

  "The worst team you can draft in your fantasy draft for defense is the Kansas City Chiefs."
  (06:01)

• Mike Wright on Martavis Bryant:

  "He is absolutely ridiculous... he has the ceiling that Martavis has."
  (31:43, 32:53)

• Jason Moore on Dak Prescott:

  "Dak Prescott is a great quarterback... he's going to transform your fantasy team."
  (38:41)

• Andy Holloway on Cam Newton:

  "Cam Newton, I'm telling you, come and ride with me... he's a ninth, he's almost a ninth round pick."
  (46:14)

• Mike Wright on Stefan Diggs:

  "He has looked excellent... projecting wide receiver one for Stefan Diggs."
  (42:54)

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This summary provides an overview of the key discussions and insights from the Fantasy Footballers' "My Guys" episode, offering valuable guidance for fantasy football enthusiasts looking to optimize their team selections for the 2017 season.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot Clan, guess what? Today's show is brought to you by fantasychamps.com fantasy champs is our official provider of fantasy football trophies, fantasy football rings, championship belts, all that good stuff. You got cases to display them. You got to check them out. People ask us all the time, where do you go to get your trophies? And we tell them, fantasychamps.com use the promo code BALLERS to save 10% foreign.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, coming to you from the Play Draft Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Sometimes, sometimes late at night, I stare at the ceiling and wonder how in the world I work with these two knuckleheads.

[Jason Moore]

Gotta hit him with the twist. I'm so excited for today's show.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike the fantasy Hitman. Right back again, the Fantasy Footballers podcast. You two get to do this for a living, huh?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

I got two crazy gentlemen dancing as the show opens up. Because this is the My Guys episode.

[Jason Moore]

Pumped up, man. I'm revved up. This is. This is plant your flag day. It's like other people's flag day, except this is about us, the us three. My guys.

[Andy Holloway]

I just let you keep going.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, please, please keep it going.

[Jason Moore]

There's nothing like watching a train wreck.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome into the show. It is the My guys episode.

[Mike Wright]

You see, I got this flag. See, it's got a player's face on it. Trying to put it in the ground.

[Jason Moore]

It's mine.

[Mike Wright]

Trying to plant it like a flower tree.

[Jason Moore]

Watch it grow. Not half mast here. It's all the way up.

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks, how are you doing today? Oh, great. We're getting ready to leave the country internationally. Another country is going to let this guy in.

[Mike Wright]

I can't wait to.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm worried about the border.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I don't know if I'll get back, though.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you may be stuck up there. We're going to Canada for the fantasy sports show this weekend.

[Jason Moore]

Get your tickets. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

If you're up in the Northeast, going to be in Toronto over the weekend. Going to be a lot of fun. We'll be watching that big Mayweather fight up in Toronto.

[Jason Moore]

That's right.

[Mike Wright]

It's kind of a fight. We'll see.

[Andy Holloway]

You notice I didn't mention McGregor, Mayweather.

[Mike Wright]

I hope.

[Andy Holloway]

I hope it's a fight, but yeah, we got my guys today. Each of us have selected three players that we are gung ho about heading into the season. Guys that we really like, guys that we think maybe are undervalued or should be valued the way we value Them. So gonna get into that. Let me tell you about our sleeper bot channel. If you're on the sleeper bot app, check it out. We've got a fantasy footballers channel on there. All of our new episodes, all of the articles, they get posted automatically over there. And if you need a place to hook a league up, they've got a new league system that's pretty cool. They come out with updates all the time, so check it out. Alright, quick question of the day, guys. I'm almost out of breath. Name a team defense that you are targeting in drafts. In fact, if you want to add a little extra, maybe tell people what you're looking for from a defense inside of your draft. I mean, I know we make fun of kickers, but how do you think of defenses?

[Mike Wright]

I'll let Jason go first because he stole mine.

[Jason Moore]

Which one? Because I had two ideas down for.

[Mike Wright]

The Steelers because I'm all about that week one matchup.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So to speak to what you, what you just said, Andy, of like, what do you look for? You look for basically one of two things. I'm looking for a super elite defense. Let's say I'm, you know, I drafted first and I've got that last turn and everybody's picking their defense at the end. Then, you know, I'll grab the Denver Broncos because they're, they're a great defense and hopefully, yeah, and hopefully they repeat. But if I don't get one of those, then I am, then I am immediately looking at that week one schedule or possibly the first, you know, week one, two, three, you know, the schedule to open the year. And there's two teams that I am targeting. Once you're past those super elite defenses, one is absolutely, as Mike said, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers, I mean, they're scheduled the first large chunk of the season and this is a little bit more abnormal, I think, to have such a run of juicy matchups. But they start with Cleveland. That's always going to be a good time for a defense. Then Minnesota, which is not a scary one. Then you go Chicago, Baltimore, Jacksonville. Oh, I mean that is a good run to open the year. I think their defense is improved as well. I would also throw out the New England Patriots because I think their defense is actually very good. They have a couple good matchups early and of course, just like the Bills and the Dolphins, they do get to play the jets twice, which is.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a treat.

[Jason Moore]

It's a treat.

[Mike Wright]

I'll jump in here a name that maybe you haven't thought of, but I'm throwing out the Miami Dolphins. They have a pretty favorable start to the season. They play the Bucks, the Chargers and the Jets. And what's also nice about them, it's favorable. It's considered favorable for defense, for fantasy scoring. It's also favorable for running backs and quarterbacks. So I feel like the offensive players for Miami will do well, which creates a positive situation for your defense. If you know what the other offense has to do, you can key up on just sacking the quarterback. Get some turnovers.

[Andy Holloway]

Some turnovers, Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know that weird that word came out of the toy nose.

[Jason Moore]

You got a toy nose over sweetly. Andy, who are you taking? Tell me it's the Bills and we'll just do the trifecta.

[Andy Holloway]

You know who I'm not against?

[Jason Moore]

The Jets.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll tell you who. The worst team you can draft in your fantasy draft for defense is the Kansas City Chiefs. Because they're a great defense.

[Mike Wright]

I said that seems odd.

[Andy Holloway]

It is odd. But here's what you don't want to do. You don't want to draft a great defense, a defense you love that you don't want to play week one and they play in New England Week one. The drafting the Chiefs. Not optimal is not optimal. Yeah, you like them for the rest of the year, but you. What are you going to do? You got to play them against New England, not me. So then why draft them?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Otherwise you gotta want to draft two defenses.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you gotta have two defenses. So that's not really an answer that stay away from the Chiefs.

[Jason Moore]

I like that answer.

[Andy Holloway]

I like the Bengals. Flacco could miss week one. I like the Rams if Luck were to miss. I like the panthers against the 49ers. Those are all nice starts to the year that I think could turn out well. And then I think either side of that Jacksonville Houston matchup might end up looking pretty good from a defensive side as well in week one. So any other thoughts, guys?

[Jason Moore]

I would just say thank you to ESPN for changing it to where if a defense scores, it does not count against my defense.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Because, for instance, the jets, who have the most horrific offense imaginable right now, they do have a defense that could score. I mean, their defense might outscore their offense this year. And if it doesn't count against me on those special teams. That's good.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's a fair point. So follow us over on Twitter heffballers. Stay with us all year. We're on YouTube. YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. And we're on the Fantasy sports network over on Facebook. We're everywhere that you could possibly be. We are right there behind you.

[Mike Wright]

Including Canada.

[Andy Holloway]

Including Canada. So, guys, I'm not going to get into any news today. We'll cover that later on this week. You guys want to do. You ready? Are you ready?

[Mike Wright]

Let me check.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Maybe your favorite drop. We'll see.

[Jason Moore]

That's abrasive.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike coming in with the very complimentary guitar.

[Mike Wright]

It should be abrasive because we're serious about these fellas.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. It is our annual My Guys episode. I'm excited to hear who you guys have picked. I'm excited to hear your arguments about them, why you believe they're somebody that the fantasy football owner needs to put on their team. Let's kick it off with Jason. He's so excited. He's so into things. Let's just let you start.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I will start. And I'm going to start with a tight end. And no, it's not Kobe Fleener.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh.

[Jason Moore]

And no, it's not Kyle Rudolph. And no, it's not Eric Ebron. No, I'm cheating on all those guys with this other fella. And really, I feel like I'm cheating on Andy because you've always been high on him. But this year, my guy, number one is Zachary Ertz of Philadelphia Eagles. Listen, Zach Ertz is a really good tight end. He is a very good football player, a great receiving tight end. And if you look at the last few years, we talked about this a couple episodes ago. You can write a narrative because he's had these back half of the last two seasons. In 2015, if you just take from week nine on. So the second half of the season, he was the tight end four. And last year, if you take the last, you know, the back half from week nine on, he was the tight end number one. That's pretty good. But of course, the first half of the season, he has not been quite as good. Now in 2015, we can. We can understand that he was still new, a young tight end. But what happened last year, why last year was it a back half thing and not a front half? And as I was looking into it, yeah, you say easy because I know your answer. Your answer.

[Andy Holloway]

You found another answer.

[Jason Moore]

I found another answer. And I think it's answered.

[Andy Holloway]

My answer had to do with Bradford getting shipped out of town. Right.

[Jason Moore]

Bradford's gone. You've got Carson Wentz stepping up. You know, systems change. You don't have that rapport yet. I am saying that's not the reason I am saying there is no reason. I am saying that Zach Ertz was great the whole year long, but he was injured and he missed a couple games after that week one. Week one he came out, he was fine. Then he missed a couple games and he comes back and he was fine. So check this out with the Zach Ertz hate out there.

[Andy Holloway]

Check it out.

[Jason Moore]

Now you always hear the. Well, if you take the back half and you extrapolate that out and make these mondo super mega stats. Yeah, he would have had 110 reception pace for 1138 yards, eight touchdowns. That would have been first just about any year. But let's not do that. Let's just take all of last year, including the first half. But obviously he missed a couple games and we forget that. We look at the season totals and think, okay, he was the tight end six. Well, he was the tight end six in 14 games. This is his stat line. Including week one and week five and all the weeks where he wasn't exploding for the year, he would have been 89 total receptions at that pace, which would have led the league ahead of Dennis Pitta for 933 yards and five touchdowns, putting him in half point PPR as the number two tight end overall. He's good. Now you have Jordan Matthews leaving town. I really believe that Zach Hertz is, you know, a top five tight end this season and he is being drafted as, you know, I don't know, a back end bum. Yeah, I mean, Ertz is not going to cost you a lot right now. He's in the ninth round. I think that is great value. That's where I want to take a shot at a tight end that can be a weekly starter all year. It's not, you know, I'm giving up. You know, I'm deciding, okay, I'm not going to pick Jamal Williams, the hopeful running back for Green Bay. Instead, I'm going to take a tight end that's going to score a lot of points this year, especially if you're in any kind of ppr.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I look, that's my guy. You have turned around and you're preaching to the choir.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, I love Zach Ertz. I do feel like he's, you know, he's been stolen away from me, but he wasn't going to be one of my guys this year. And he's your guy and I love him.

[Mike Wright]

Do you factor in at all that his name starts and ends with the letter Z?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, of course. I mean, I'm not a Dummy. Yeah. I mean, that's. That's probably the reason.

[Andy Holloway]

Zachary Adam Ertz, first man.

[Jason Moore]

I love it.

[Andy Holloway]

First. First man. Mike, let's kick it over to you. Let's. All right, let's talk about your. My guy.

[Mike Wright]

The first guy I'm going to talk about, he was a wide receiver one last year, but he's still being disrespected and he's dropping to those middle rounds, that fifth round, which is absolutely ridiculous. I'm talking about Michael Crabtree, last year's wide receiver. 11 in half point PPR. He is an excellent wide receiver. Last year in the ultimate draft kit, we have Matt Harmon's reception perception and he charts out advanced metrics, things like how does. How is a player running routes? Are they having success against man coverage, against zone coverage? How are they in contested catch percentage? Well, when it was a contested catch, 86% success rate, which puts him third best of all the wide receivers that Matt Harmon charted for the draft kit last year. He is excellent in the red zone.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

He's not a nine route runner anymore.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

If you want to take that against him that he has a lower yards per reception, it doesn't matter because he is a technical. He is a maestro at running routes and creating separation in the short and intermediate game. Last year he was 10th in targets. He was fourth in red zone targets. Did you see the touchdown that he put on in preseason?

[Jason Moore]

I mean, not a lot of people are scoring a touchdown there. That would. That was a great move.

[Andy Holloway]

So why. Why is he so disrespected?

[Mike Wright]

Because Amari Cooper's there, so everyone is projecting. Oh, well, Amari Cooper is. He's the number one wide receiver there. He was a high draft pick. He.

[Andy Holloway]

Crabtree can function, though, as a wide receiver. One he probably couldn't.

[Mike Wright]

Crabtree?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know. I think you're saying if you take.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm saying if you took Cooper, it's like Cooper is both his poison for respect and his. You know, it's a good thing for him to have Cooper on the other side because it lets him exploit.

[Mike Wright]

It's a possibility. I won't rule it out completely, but I think.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I think that he would have.

[Andy Holloway]

I appreciate that.

[Mike Wright]

I think he would still have great success regardless if Cooper was there, because he gets open and Derek Carr is a good quarterback. He should have 4,000 yards and close to 30 touchdowns. And Michael Crabtree is. Where he looks.

[Jason Moore]

Is.

[Mike Wright]

Especially when he's trying to throw his touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

You're not worried about Jared Cook.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not worried in the slightest.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

About Jared Cook. And it's. Is the team better with Marshawn lynch there? Arguably, yes. And with the evolution of DeAndre Washington, I think that the run game only helps. It helps him score more points. Michael Crabtree is where Derek Carr goes to in those types of situations. I just, I don't understand why a wide receiver one is being just.

[Andy Holloway]

Michael Crabtree is round. He's that comfort food for Derek Carr. You get in the. In the red zone and he knows he can lean on him. That's absolutely true. And so, Mike, you are hanging your hat on Michael Crabtree.

[Jason Moore]

I can tell you this.

[Mike Wright]

2017, when we first target him everywhere.

[Jason Moore]

When we first started out, our, you know, players top to bottom, I'm talking a long time ago. Whenever it was February, March, you know, when we did our first run through, I took a look and Michael Crabtree was like my wide receiver 36. Because I disrespected him. I was just like, I'm just, you know, I'm thinking, okay, Cooper takes that step forward. So I see how people forget about him. But at the same time, I was like, well, that's. They want to have him as the. As the wide receiver 36. And I completely agree with you, Mike. I think he's one of the better valued picks in this draft. He's going to be a, at worst, a wide receiver too, that you're drafting. You know, you could be drafting him as your wide receiver three or four.

[Mike Wright]

And I think he still carries the stink of the 49ers failure.

[Jason Moore]

Completely agree.

[Andy Holloway]

I think you've always had the ability, though, to see through the stink with certain players like Michael Crabtree, Eric Decker, Rashard Matthews. Non high profile wide receivers that you people don't draft because they don't represent top five performances. Like, what are the odds that Michael Crabtree is a top five guy?

[Mike Wright]

Zero.

[Andy Holloway]

What are the odds that Amari Cooper's top five guy?

[Mike Wright]

20.

[Andy Holloway]

More than zero. More than zero, sure. And that's what blocks people.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I'm saying.

[Andy Holloway]

I like that pick.

[Mike Wright]

The nine route, it's. It's gone. That's not part of Crabtree's game anymore.

[Andy Holloway]

He's.

[Mike Wright]

He's too old. He's suffered some injuries.

[Andy Holloway]

So I'm gonna give you mine. I'm gonna start here. And I realized that I think all my guys have a theme, and it's forgiveness because all three of my guys.

[Mike Wright]

Who doesn't love a theme, they've all.

[Andy Holloway]

They've all disappointed people last year. They disappointed their owners. And yet there are three situations where because of that disappointment, because of their history in their past, they offer value to fantasy owners this year. So the first one, look, at least one of these, you're going to know already. So I'm just getting it out of the way. It's Todd Gurley. I'm hanging my hat. My guy is Todd Gurley this year. Look, it went as bad as it could have gone for Todd Gurley last year. After a rookie season in which he had 76% of his starts inside the top 24, right. He was an RB1 and RB2 76% of the time. It was some of the. That was the best in the league right up there. But last year everything went bad. But you have a new offense, a new scheme coming in and at the end of the year, even if you threw out every bad number, which I'm forcing you to do, to listen to me here, you still cannot throw out 278 rushing attempts. Okay. Still fourth in the league in broken tackles, still seventh in yards after contact, 12th in target. Something we weren't expecting to see from Todd Gurley last year. Love what I saw in this last preseason game. Not reading too much into it. If you listen to this show, you know I've been touting Todd Gurley all offseason. So he belongs here. This is his right. This is where he belongs.

[Jason Moore]

Mike, care for a rebuttal?

[Andy Holloway]

I believe in McVeigh and here, let me just. I'll close it out. You can. You can ask me a question about it. Here's what else he needs confidence and he needs a good start and the pieces are there for a good start his first four games. Remember these teams and how they defended the run last year. First five games actually. The Chargers, the Packers, the Colts, the redskins and the 49ers. That's how he starts the year.

[Jason Moore]

It's pretty good.

[Andy Holloway]

That's almost a the best possible list you can imagine for teams to start against a strengthened offensive line with Andrew Whitworth and I believe in Sean McVeigh system and I believe he's going to get 278 rushing attempts and the target.

[Jason Moore]

So yeah, according to our udk the first four weeks he has the second best strength of schedule for the running back position. So that that point is is well received and I think that it is.

[Andy Holloway]

Important he's at 205 right now.

[Jason Moore]

It's far more important to weigh the only those first few weeks when it comes to strength of schedule. When you look at the whole season, things are going to get murky and we're going to be wrong about a lot of those things.

[Mike Wright]

I said I can't argue with the volume. And that's, that's really all I believe in. For Todd Gurley, I'm not nearly as boisterous. I mean, I. But he's still in my. He's still in my top ten.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Because he' touch the ball so many times.

[Andy Holloway]

So he went. Even though he struggled last year, like I said, the first, his first year he was 76% of the time. He was an RB one or two.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Last year it was 56% of the time. Okay, so in his Nightmare season, still 56% of the time he gave you a RB1 or 2 performance.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So it wasn't good. I'm not trying to paint last year as, oh, you should have been happy with it. You shouldn't have been. But 278 rushing attempts gives you a chance to be forgiven.

[Mike Wright]

So I'm looking through his game log last season because I wanted.

[Jason Moore]

How does.

[Mike Wright]

How did Todd Gurley do against the division? Because that's six games of the fantasy season and things can improve for him. But he didn't have one of those games. And that's two games against San Francisco. Who were. If you had a running back against San Francisco, that was a great matchup. Not one division game did Todd Gurley average more than three yards of carry. He was sub three. I mean, it was. That's, that's. That's impossibly bad for a, for a guy who's getting that many attempts. But it's just, it's the, it's the draft price that has me shying away from Gurley. If you told me that I could draft Todd Gurley in the third round, I would be much more responsive and more open to putting him on my team. But I'm not going to pay up the second round price.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. That's all right. I'll pay. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And I know somebody will. Somebody will pay up in absolutely every single draft. Before we move on to another one of our. My guys want to thank today's sponsor, Pro Flowers. Fellas, when is the last time that you just sent some surprise flowers to someone special to Todd Gurley?

[Andy Holloway]

Last week.

[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

Don't wait.

[Mike Wright]

Don't wait. Make someone's day.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And hey, we want to tell you about SeatGeek. The best and the only way to buy tickets if you're going to any kind of sporting event and obviously the NFL season, it is right around the corner. Sometimes buying tickets for sporting events can be confusing and there's just annoying. Yeah, it's really annoying. But with the SeatGeek app, it's super simple. They've designed it to where it's very, very easy. You download the app on your phone, you look at what game you want to go to, and you've got an interactive map where they show you a color coded grid of here's the best ticket prices in this area and that area. We've used it many, many, many times. For every event that we have gone to, we just pull up the SeatGeek app. It's super easy. They've got great prices. It's the most bang for your buck, for sure, because they grade your ticket prices so easily. Here's the best part. You can get $20 off your first SeatGeek purchase as a listener of this show. Just download the SeatGeek app, enter promo code footballers today. That's promo code footballers for $20 off your first SeatGeek purchase. You will definitely not regret going to these live events.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we're back to you. Jay, we're back to you. Oh, give us another my guy.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I'm going to give you a my guy that I feel like I'm on an island about. Okay. He is my guy and my guy alone because nobody else wants him.

[Andy Holloway]

Brandon LaFell.

[Jason Moore]

Well, yeah, I mean, how many of my guys do we get? Here's the thing. No, I'm going to talk about Mark Ingram. I'm going to Defend Mark Ingram's honor. And I'm claiming Mark Ingram this year in 2016, 2017.

[Andy Holloway]

Tricky, tricky.

[Jason Moore]

As one of my guys. Well, it's hard for me with the years because when I look back at other years, Mark Ingram has always been really good and been worth his draft price. So in 2016, last year he was the running back nine. Now all of this is half point scoring. That's our default on the fantasy footballers. He had 205 carries. That was it. And he was the running back nine. Now if you had him last year, you were a little disappointed because they came in spurts and you couldn't always guess the game, right? But how about the year before? In 2015, he was the running back 13. He was the running back 13. He only, he only had 166 carries and only played in 12 games and he was the running back 13. Then in 2014, that was, you know, when they had Pierre Thomas and Kyrie Robinson actively involved. But Jason, he only had 13 games and he was the running back 15. Yeah, but Jason, but Jason himself, in.

[Andy Holloway]

2014 and 2015 and 2016, Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara weren't on the roster.

[Jason Moore]

That is why he is my guy. Because this is a guy who three years in a row has not needed to touch the ball 275 plus times. Todd Gurley, he hasn't needed to do that. He has. I mean, think about last year, okay? Last year Tim Hightower had 133 carries, okay?

[Andy Holloway]

So those 132 too many.

[Jason Moore]

You're darn right they were. And so now Adrian Peterson comes in. Now I expect Adrian Peterson to get more than, more than 120. He sure did. He has worked back from his injuries. He, he's getting that carry. He deserves it. But not 133. Adrian Peterson will come in and he will take more than that. But the point is, it's not like Mark Ingram is going from having all of the work to all of a sudden, Adrian Pearson's in there now and taking 150 carries. If he takes 150 carries, that's only, you know, 20 carries more than what was out there last year with Hightower. And then you go, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, Jason, what about Alvin Camara? I mean, he has looked great in the passing game. If he comes in, isn't he going to kill Mark Ingram's value? Maybe.

[Andy Holloway]

Can't kill Mark Ingram.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, but Trevor's cadet last year had 54 targets, caught 40 receptions. Okay, so let's just, I mean, passes caught 40 passes, he had 40 receptions, whatever. I'm just excited to talk about the fact the marking room is a guy that's being disrespected right now. If you want to draft him, you can get him way after Adrian Peterson in the draft right now, which I think is silly.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that is silly.

[Jason Moore]

He's the 27th running back being drafted right now. He's on a super high powered team that he is the only running back there who is intimately familiar with their system. And while all the news has been so great about Adrian Peterson now Alvin Camara, Mike Triplett, great ESPN reporter who covers the Saints, has said, hey, I realize all the news has been great because they're new and shiny, but Mark Ingram's been great at camp. I mean, Alvin Kamara was great last this past weekend. Mark Ingram didn't play. Mark Ingram wasn't involved. So yeah, Kamara, you look great. My point is that Mark Ingram, he will have a role to play. He will get his 166 rushes and his 35 receptions at the work and six or seven touchdowns. And if you're getting that guy right now, he's dropping. I've seen him dropping into the sixth round. You want to know who he's going by in the sixth round? Derek Henry and Paul Perkins. I would much rather have a Mark Ingram. What happens if Adrian Peterson, who's 72 years old coming off a knee injury, we'll see that. What if he gets injured?

[Andy Holloway]

Just so you can take a breath, I'm going to start talking. That's what I was going to bring up though. I can't see a player being drafted that late. Have more upside if that starter. Because everybody's given Adrian Peterson. Look, you'll be happy to know I moved Peterson down earlier today.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not happy. You're the fancy reaper. That hurts my argument. Move him up.

[Andy Holloway]

I move peterson down about 20 carries. But if Peterson isn't Peterson, if he doesn't give them enough, if something's wrong, if he gets hurt again, all of a sudden Ingram is. He's a top 10 back and the pass catching chops are there. So I understand that. It's all about that value to me. Like if you told me I was paying up in the first four rounds, the first five rounds for somebody whose role. Look, I know the end result has been okay over the past few years, but you don't know how he gets there all the time. I wouldn't want to pay that much. But you don't have to pay that Anymore.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, I'm not saying that Mark Ingram, I'm calling him to be a top five back. He's right now my running back. 19. But where he's being drafted.

[Andy Holloway]

27.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's the 27th running back off the board near the sixth round. I think people are. And let's be honest, after this last week, he's going to be falling. There's. With what Alvin Camara did with his first handoff. Mark, nobody's going to want to touch Mark Ingram. And I'll touch him.

[Mike Wright]

So.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Moving on this one, an elderly gentleman.

[Mike Wright]

So the New Orleans Saints last year as a team for their running backs, just to talk to Jason's point of they can sustain multiple running backs for fantasy. They had the seventh most rushing yards, the seventh most rushing touchdowns now. And they had the most receptions, the most targets, the most receiving touchdowns. I mean, there is humongous volume going to these running backs.

[Jason Moore]

And it's like that every year. I mean, you can go back to when Deuce McAllister, I mean, Reggie Bush and Darren Sprouls and Pierre Thomas, all these running backs who have been on the team at the same time, Chris Ivory, and been productive.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we got to move on. Mike, I need another one of your guys. All right.

[Mike Wright]

This one's a little risky.

[Andy Holloway]

Risky business.

[Jason Moore]

That's how I know who this is.

[Mike Wright]

That's how I do things over here. As the fantasy hitman, you're always a.

[Andy Holloway]

Three days past the expiration date kind of guy.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Mike Wright]

And the reason it's risky is because technically speaking, this player's still not allowed to play in the regular season. That's Martavis Bryant. But just to go off of that, he's already been reinstated for preseason. Everything is trending towards him being fully reinstated for the regular season. I have. I've seen nothing. No whispers from the bushes about a negative step back or setback for Martavis for his reinstation his rookie year. Six touchdowns in the first four games. I mean, this, his production has been absolutely outrageous. In 2015, he was suspended for four games, as been noted, and then he was actually benched for a game. But in his first nine games, he put up a line of 48 receptions, 760 yards and six touchdowns. I mean, that's. He is absolutely ridiculous. Big Ben goes from in 2014 without Martavis, 266 yards, 1.3 touchdowns. When Martavis gets in 336 yards a game, 2.4 touchdowns and a similar increase in 2015, the dude's an absolute monster. There are not very many people who can match his athletic profile for how large he is. 6 4. Ran around a 4, 45 when he was coming into the league and he said, what am I going to do this offseason? I can't play football. He was up in the gym working on that fitness. He now reportedly weighs around 230 pounds. I mean the reports he looked like a white walker. He is. The Night King is trying to recruit Martavis Bryant to do some damage. He's going to dominate, but he is risky. The reason why Martavis Bryant is available in the fourth and the fifth round is because of the risk. If Martavis Bryant had none of that baggage, he would be in the third round. And Big Ben and the passing game for the Steelers can sustain two very high level wide receivers. So I am all in on what Martavis is going to be able to do and I, that's, that's the crux of the argument there.

[Jason Moore]

So the reality. So once, you know, a couple weeks ago the NFL came out and said, hey, we're not going to, you know, he's not officially completely reinstated. We're monitoring his progress. I backed off. Yeah. This is you saying I'm planting my flag. I'm not afraid.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

It's worth it.

[Mike Wright]

And I'm telling you this is a risky pick because if something happens there's going to be. Twitter is going to be flushed with the I told you so's of. This is why you don't draft risky players in the fifth round. And that's fine. I'm not telling you you have to do this. But I, in drafting Martavis Bryant because I believe that he will be a major difference maker. There's. I don't think there's going to be many other people in that range who can, who have the ceiling that Martavis has.

[Andy Holloway]

It's funny because I'm going to, I'm going to give you my guy. The last three picks we're talking about are fifth round picks. You just talk about Martavis in the fifth. Jason brought him. Ingram in the fifth. Here's a player. I would take over both of them in the fifth round. And you might not like it.

[Mike Wright]

No, I don't.

[Andy Holloway]

But I'm going to tell you right now, who is it? Here's a quote from this player and this is how I see this season. He said, adversity yields opportunity. All right. Doug Martin. Doug Martin, the suspended look, three games. He's out three games this year. I'm going to Tell you right now, you want to draft Doug Martin. And every team that I see that has Doug Martin on their bench after they've invested earlier picks on my receivers on tight end, maybe they don't have the strongest running back core in the league. Get ready for Doug Martin. Doug Martin is one year removed from 1400 plus yards in 2015. He had 33 receptions that year. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry. And last year was a lost year. That's how you need to look at it. He said when he was suspended he was looking for support to battle and overcome his personal issues. He went to rehab. He went through that process. And everything that we have seen in camp, everything that we've seen on Hard Knocks, everything that we've seen in preseason performances shows, look, Dirk Cutter is not going to come out and award a guy who basically let his whole team down by saying you're the automatic starter when you come back. He's the starter, guys. He's twice the player Jacuzzi Rogers is. You could see the burst in preseason already. And you're talking about a player that has multiple times in his career finished in that top five echelon number. Right. He was the number two running back his rookie season. He was number three in 2015. Where can you get a player that can finish in the top five at running back in the fifth round if not this year? With Doug Martin, you have to pay the price. You have to survive three weeks. I get that. And that makes him scary. That makes him risky. Right?

[Jason Moore]

He's.

[Andy Holloway]

He's risky like Martavis Bryant is risky. So I don't say you reach. I don't think you go reach up into the fourth round for Doug Martin. But if he's sitting there in the fifth or sixth round, if you don't have the best running backs through those first rounds. Absolutely love Doug Martin. Everything I've seen tells me he's going to be the guy.

[Jason Moore]

So fifth round is where you'll take him if you're.

[Andy Holloway]

I will take him in the fifth round.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. What about you, Mike? Where would you take Doug Martin?

[Mike Wright]

It would have to be 7. 7 or later for me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And I think I split the difference. I will agree with Andy in the sense that everything you have seen with your eyeballs right now says he looks back. He's.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, it's really a lot of the Martavis argument. Right. As long as the players back being the player, you love the upside of the player.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. If you know that you're getting the Doug Martin that has finished as a top three back and you're missing three games. It's worth. It's probably worth it.

[Mike Wright]

It would be worth it. And that's why people are drafting Zeke, who has doubled that suspension in the second round, because they believe that they have a top five running back when he comes back. The problem with Martin is mean you can spin the wheel. And the majority of his career, it's come up bust and under 500 rushing yards in three of his seasons. So there is. There's not just the risk of the suspension and maybe him not being the starter. I agree with Andy that once he comes back, he is the starter. And he has looked excellent. He has looked like 2015 Doug Martin. But for me, I'm just. This is. This is. Doug Martin is a perfect example of one of those players where I talk about, you put the flag down and you just admit you're okay with whatever the result is. If I miss on Doug Martin, I don't care. I am completely fine missing on Doug Martin. So that's just. That's where he is for me, where at the right price, I will go in on him. But it has to be a price that I am willing to pay.

[Andy Holloway]

And I'm not going to go on. I'm going to let Jason give his next guy. But the offense, we like the offense, we like the opportunity for that office to put him in a good position as well. And they want to run the ball. We saw this last year. They won when they ran the ball. So J. And I can't help but think Desean Jackson, a healthy, you know, Mike Evans, O.J. howard, that all helps that offense.

[Jason Moore]

I will be honest. I have not liked Doug Martin much this year. But some of the arguments you're making, they. I think they do hold water. And if you can get him, especially in the sixth round, I think you will end up with a good pick there. And this is the first time I've even come around the slightest on Doug Martin. He's been much more, much closer to my do not draft list. So.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, all right. Number three, Mike. I'm sorry. Jason has already given us Zach Ertz and Mark Ingram. And I know this guy might be the favorite of his list.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not sure it is my favorite of the list. And what's funny is, as I was putting this list together, I had those other two picked out and I had a. I had like 10 other names. I'm kind of deciding who do I want to plant my flag on. And this guy wasn't in the list and I took another look and I thought, what am I doing? That's my guy. This is a guy I actually believe in.

[Mike Wright]

This is my guy.

[Jason Moore]

This is my guy. Mike. I am the highest on the three of us. I'm higher than most.

[Andy Holloway]

You're definitely the highest of the three.

[Jason Moore]

Of us, the most high of the majority of experts out there right now. I believe Dak Prescott is a great quarterback. It's as simple as that. I mean, he has the third best fantasy season since the year 2000 for a rookie quarterback. Okay, the other Y2K the other guys you got Cam Newton, you know, you've got, he's, he's up there above Andrew Luck's rookie season. He had an incredible rookie season. So the question for most people is, does that go away? And I don't think it does because he is legit good. He has a great team around him, a great offensive line. He's got DEZ Bryant. I realize right now he's in a difficult division. They've got some good defenses. His defense has taken a step back with missing, you know, the first six games for Ezekiel Elliott. I think that more of this team is going to have to go on the shoulders of Dak and I believe he's going to be able to get the job done. If you want to look at how consistent he is, sure he might not give you the, you know, number one quarterback that week type of games very often, but he is not going to crap your team very often either. Here's the list of guys. If you take his week 16 out where he basically didn't play and they rested their starters, the percentage of games where he didn't finish as a quarterback, one. Here's a list of guys who were better than him. Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers. That's it. And one of those things is not like the other. When you look at where you're going to draft him, you're getting Dak Prescott, who finished last year as the sixth quarterback overall in his rookie year. You're getting him as the 15, 15th, 15th quarterback right now in average draft position. America, America. Get your deal together. That's in the round. He is my target right now. Where if I'm in the double digit rounds and Dak is there, he's who I'm hoping for. I believe he will be consistent. He'll be plug and play, locked and loaded. I think he's going to have a great year because I believe he is a great quarterback. What round he's a rushing quarterback. So if you're in, he's a rush like threat. Yeah, he had six touchdowns on the ground last year and he's going to be able to put up several hundred yards on the ground. That's, that helps. That's why, that's why he doesn't finish outside of the top 12 as often as other guys. As far as what round I would draft him, it depends on. I mean I usually, I like so many quarterbacks late that I'm waiting until at least that ninth round. So I would say that's probably the earliest I'll take him. But the nice thing is is I won't have to reach for him. If his average draft position is the tenth, I can let him fall to me.

[Andy Holloway]

I like it. He passes the eye test. It's just a matter.

[Jason Moore]

He's great in preseason.

[Andy Holloway]

I brought this up before. It's the same thing as what happened with Russell Wilson his rookie year. Built into Dak Prescott's ADP is the fact you just. And he, it's nothing he can do about it. There's not three years of track record. So when you don't know what a guy can do over three years, you see the ADP drop. So Mark Ingram, Zach Ers, Dak Prescott, your guys. Yeah, those are all right. Mike, you've gone all wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I've gone all wide receivers. And this is a, this is a guy who I'm targeting in the seventh round or so because I project that he can break out this season he only played 13 games, yet he was 14th in receptions. So in 13 games he had more receptions then Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, Brandon Cooks missing three games. I'm talking about Stefan Diggs now. I like the Minnesota offense. I think that Dalvin Cook changes a lot of things for this team and they have upgraded on their offensive line. Sammy Biscuits gets another year. He gets an actual training camp to learn with this team instead of packing his bags and just showing up and saying, hey guys, I'm gonna throw the ball for you. I'm Sam Bradford. Check out my shoulder pads.

[Andy Holloway]

Sammy Biscuits.

[Jason Moore]

Look how high these shoulder pads are.

[Mike Wright]

Last year, Stefan Diggs, his floor, his floor per game was at least five targets, right? There are, there's not many wide receivers who are getting at least five. And then there's multiple instances of him getting double digit targets. They had a three game stretch where every single game he's over 10 targets a game. And we've seen the evidence that he can take over a game. He did it multiple times last year. Including week two when he was just absolute magma. He has that built into him. He had a sensational rookie year. I think he backed it up last year. Injuries are a concern. Injuries are absolutely a concern with Stefan Diggs. I don't think that he can play a full 16 games, but you don't have to spend a very high pick on him. And the question for Diggs is, can the touchdowns improve? And I think that they can because I'm projecting the Minnesota offense as a whole to just be better.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I agree with you there. One of the things I like about Diggs, you bring up the fact that his injury risk is kind of one of the bigger concerns for him. But what he's done this offseason is he's changed his diet, he's talked a lot about. What he needs to work on is not. I mean, when people are like, hey, what do you need to get better at? His answer is, I need to get my body prepared for 16 games. That's been his focus. I like when a guy focuses on what he should be focusing on. He knows how to run routes, he knows how to catch the ball. I'm sure he's not leaving those things behind, but he has been focusing on getting his body trained and ready to take the beating. That's great. I agree completely. If Sam Bradford 30 touchdowns, the most.

[Mike Wright]

Accurate quarterback season of all time.

[Jason Moore]

If he threw 30 touchdowns, I mean, Stefan Diggs would be a top 10 wide receiver. The problem is, can he? Will he? Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And I, I guess this would be one where I don't disagree on you being bullish about him, but it depends on what that translates into. I don't think that the ceiling for Stefan Diggs is much different than the ceiling for Jarvis Landry. They're both the exact same size. Landry 511, 200. Diggs is 6 foot 200. Right. These guys have wide receiver touch. I mean, they have touchdown caps to me. And what you've seen is the best years out of Jarvis Landry is you finish the season 13th in fantasy and then 14th in fantasy the next year. Diggs doesn't have the kind of 50, 50 ball body to go up and get those. Thielen does and we saw him do it. I just don't know how often in this offense with Minnesota, with the way they play defense, how often you're really going to see Explosive Stefan Diggs vs. PPR Stefon Diggs. Yes, PPR stuff on. Diggs is the 15th ranked wide receiver and you're going to be happy with it, but he's not a top 12 to me, so I understand.

[Mike Wright]

I'm projecting wide receiver one for Stefan Diggs. Okay. But I am projecting for a wide receiver two and a wide receiver two that you can draft in the seventh round is ridiculous. That's. That's spectacular value. So let's say I always talk about I won't be running back heavy at the beginning of my drafts. That's just how I play the game. So maybe I end up going running back. Running back. And then. And then in the fourth round, I'm grabbing Crabtree, and then in the sixth round, I pick up Stefan Diggs. Yeah, I mean, I am.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm your baseline.

[Mike Wright]

I'm ecstatic.

[Andy Holloway]

Is wonderful there. All right, I'm going to give you my last guy. I want you to walk the plank with me, okay?

[Jason Moore]

Uh. Oh, that sounds not good.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to try to unravel some things that I think are wrong about the way we evaluate this player. Cam Newton is my guy for this year. And if. If I had to tell you, come take one of my three guys and have the most confidence. I have the most confidence in my Cam Newton take than I do either of the other two players. This is something that has grown immensely over the last month and a half. And I want you to come and walk along with me for a second. What is the biggest complaint that you hear about Cam Noon?

[Jason Moore]

He's a bad passer.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a bad passer, right? Has he ever been. Here's the thing. Is he ever been a great passer by the metrics we talk about, right? Sam Bradford, the most accurate quarterback in history. Well, guess what? Cam Newton's a career 58% passer. He was a 58% passer when he finished third in his rookie year, a 58% passer when he finished fourth the next year, 58% when he finished third and he finished first. We can remember, right, 2015, he was the number one quarterback. His game is not this upper echelon passer complete now. Last year, 52% outlier from his career. Career 58 guy, terrible year. The whole season fell down around him. But he's a career 58% guy. And you want to know why? Because nobody in the league has more of his yards as air yards than Cam Newton does. Him and Jameis Winston. You want to know who doesn't? Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, Matt Stafford. Those guys have 47%, 48% of their yards as air yards. You know what? Cam Newton has 63% the guy takes shots down the field. He takes big play shots. That's why the completion percentage isn't there. He's got this monster arm. We've seen the Ted Ginn highlights and I'm telling you, this year, the schedule, they have third best schedule in the league for quarterback starts the year against the 49ers, Bills and Saints. I'm telling you, if you draft them, you're not going to regret it. Even if he falls off a map, if you start him those first three weeks, you're going to be really, really happy. Benjamin, Funches, McCaffrey, Shepherd, Olson, Samuel, that's a positive thing. I'm giving you all the weapons. I'm giving you all the weapons. Big or small. He's got, he has the weapons. He's shown number one, number three, number four capability. You're still going to get 90 rushing attempts like you did last year. That's my take. They're not pulling that back. You cannot stop him. What was his expression? You can't tell a lion not to roar. He even came out and said, yeah, whatever. That's basically his response. We want you to be safer with the ball. Yeah, whatever. A lion's going to roar. When push comes to shove, he's going to run the ball and he's not too old to do it. I don't like the comparisons that people. Here's the other part I want to unravel because I'm just going to go forever. The other comparisons we hear is. And Jason's made this argument. You brought it up before too. This is the age in which running quarterbacks stop. Have you ever seen anybody like Cam Newton before?

[Jason Moore]

Nope.

[Andy Holloway]

He does not fit into the mold. You cannot even make a mold big enough for that man. So he doesn't count. I don't give those things arguments. Huge mold, Cam. It's a huge mold. Cam Newton, I'm telling you, come and ride with me. He's a ninth, he's almost a ninth round pick. I like Cam Newton there and he can give you four times he's given you a top five quarterback. So yeah, there you go.

[Jason Moore]

I'll say this because he's falling near those double digit rounds. I don't have a problem at all with drafting Cam Newton, especially with the early schedule that you pointed out. Because I expect whoever I draft, even Dak Dak's not going to play 16 games for me. I'm going to draft him and maybe I won't drop him, but when there's a bad matchup, I'm going to pick someone else up, I'm going to play him. If I draft someone else, if I get Stafford or Dalton or whoever, I'm fine to cut him. I'm fine to draft and cut Cam. But Cam does have the explosive, super high impact upside. And if, you know, the schedule starts out strong that way, I really do like that. Now, the only thing I would disagree with you on is I do expect his rushing numbers to dip. He will still probably be, you know, he'll be one of the top three rushing quarterbacks this year, but it won't be to his level of upside because while he is saying, you're not going to stop me from running, that's a huge part of my game, I have to do that. He will do that, but it won't be called for him as often. So when the play breaks down, he's going to scramble. He's going to get you 20 yards and two fantasy points on that scramble. But the coaches used to call a ton of designed runs for him. And the reason he had to say, you know, you can't teach a lion to not roar is because the coaches have come out and said, we're going to avoid that. So I do temper the rushing totals a little bit, but honestly, if the rushing totals come down a little bit and the dump offs to Christian McCaffrey, pad his stats up a little bit, you know, and all of a sudden it probably won't be an even trade. But I don't have a problem with Cam Newton this year. I really don't.

[Andy Holloway]

They finally gave him some weapons for cheap yards. That's the thing. They finally gave him cheap yard weapons so he doesn't have to be picking them all up on the ground like Jason just brought up.

[Mike Wright]

So now Cam Newton, those cheap yards, though, will have to go up a lot. If his rushing comes down anymore, he's in trouble because it's not just one for one. And I'm saying it's not just his accuracy that's the problem. He's thrown over 4,000 yards one time. If you take out the outlier 35 touchdowns, which I know, but the other five years of his career, he averages just over 20 passing touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And you're saying those first three years where he was a top five guy were on the rushing yard.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. And I, I don't buy into, I know he's puffing the chest up saying I'm going to run, but the coach has a lot to do with those things. And the Coach wants to win. Yeah, and exactly. The coach wants to win. And he saw what happened to Cam Newton last year when he got the crap kicked out of him. They're just. There's only so many times.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but if Cam goes down, then he gets Derek Anderson. So then they can.

[Mike Wright]

There's only so many times that a human being, even one, is as large and imposing as Cam Newton, can take a shot from an NFL player before it starts having a negative effect.

[Andy Holloway]

Remember when Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just. I'm concerned that really bad truck accident.

[Jason Moore]

And the truck was like crumbled and.

[Andy Holloway]

He'S just chuckling in the corner.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it was totally. What was that movie with.

[Mike Wright]

So you're saying he's Bruce Unbreakable.

[Jason Moore]

Unbreakable.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah, that's him. All right. Martavis Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Stefan Diggs are Mike's three my guys. Jason, you went with Ingram, Ertz and Prescott. And I went with Todd Gurley, Cam Newton and Doug Martin. A tale of redemption for all three players. Very excited. Hopefully. You know, I'm sure we're going to get a lot of feedback on Twitter, on YouTube on this episode, and that's what we want. So share your thoughts. We really appreciate you.

[Jason Moore]

Who's your guy?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, who's your guy this year? Who have you already drafted? And put your stamp.

[Jason Moore]

Plant that flag.

[Andy Holloway]

You got any more flag talk for the fans, for the listeners?

[Jason Moore]

No, I'm just saying, you know, or.

[Mike Wright]

A grand old flag or a high flying flag.

[Andy Holloway]

Man, suddenly I appeared in first grade. That was incredible. All right, check out playdraft.comballers. play some DFS week one. Hop in there. Draft yourself a team. Playdraft.comballers. we'll catch you tomorrow.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on twitt@the ff ballers.