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Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
Fantasy Football 2017 - Top 10 Quarterbacks + ADP Predictions
00:50:28
Fantasy Football Podcast for August 15th, 2017. The Fantasy Footballers are back again with our Top 10 QB Rankings for the 2017 season. Are there any players that made our Top 10 that you can get late in drafts? Which Top 10 guys should you be avoiding be
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- [00:00]
Andy Holloway
Hey, foot clan. The hour has come. Your fantasy football drafts are taking place, many of those in the next couple of weeks. And if you're not digging deep in the Ultimate Draft Kit, you are missing out on prime info that will have you ready to dominate your fantasy football draft. It is jam packed. We're talking all of our 2017 season projections for each and every player, 100 plus player profile, videos, sleepers, breakouts, busts and values. Tons more, including. This thing's updated every day. This is not out of date like some old Busted magazine. We update our rankings all the time and they are instantly available in the cheat sheets in the rankings. You don't want to miss it. So give yourself the tools to execute a perfect draft and set the foundation for a fantasy championship. Get instant access right now at ultimate draft kit.com that is ultimate draftkit.com.
- [01:02]
Jason Moore
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the Play Draft Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
- [01:17]
Andy Holloway
Welcome in. Welcome into the show.
- [01:22]
Mike Wright
It's the show. Welcome into the show.
- [01:26]
Andy Holloway
Tuesday. It's a Tuesday show. August 15th.
- [01:30]
Mike Wright
It smells like the hour.
- [01:33]
Andy Holloway
The hour is here. The time has come. I had a friend on Facebook the other day, they said, oh great, it's that time of year. People start talking about football again. Oh, one of, one of those, one of those guys. And I said, get out of here. I said, look.
- [01:48]
Jason Moore
Said blocked.
- [01:49]
Andy Holloway
I said, buddy, you're in trouble because football is here. And we're back. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Five days a week, right in your pocket. Great show today. Top 10 quarterbacks on the episode. Also have a great quick question. It's pointing towards preseason week two. Curious your guys answer on it. Follow us on Twitter at the ffballers. We're on YouTube. YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. The website's the fantasy footballers.com so I'm going to jump right in. I'm not going to dilly dally whatsoever. What player do you believe has the biggest rise or fall in ADP by next week? So basically project a player you think will do something this week and camp, most likely preseason week two, that may result in a big rise or big fall in adp. So if you're drafting them today, maybe you get a bargain, maybe you're overpaying.
- [02:46]
Jason Moore
Yeah, I'll bring someone up that actually, I mean, even if he doesn't continue, which I think he will, you need to be aware he is in the middle of a, you know, Mount Everest plummet down from the summit.
- [02:59]
Andy Holloway
Andrew, that sounds intense.
- [03:02]
Jason Moore
Yeah, a lot of people have died this way.
- [03:04]
Andy Holloway
Just a Mount Everest plummet down from the summit.
- [03:06]
Jason Moore
Yeah. So Andrew Luck right now because of his shoulder injury, what's going to happen is the closer we get to week one, they are never going to say, guess what, he's starting week one. If he starts week one, they're not going to say that until the the week of at the absolute earliest. So that means when you draft, you're going to be a week out or two weeks out or three weeks out from the start of the NFL season. And Andrew Luck, you don't even know if he's playing. He's currently injured, his ADP is going to fall. If you look at the end of July to now, he has dropped two full rounds. And the thing is, the reason he's dropping isn't about to change. He's not going to be back practicing fully tomorrow for the next week or so.
- [03:54]
Andy Holloway
Not expecting any TMZ video of him throwing the ball out in the backyard, showing his arm strength.
- [04:00]
Jason Moore
Yeah, I'm sure there's some of that. But that will come hand in hand with more reports saying we're unsure about Andrew Luck's status for week one. And that'll win. Negativity always wins.
- [04:11]
Andy Holloway
I will put a little, a little bonus on the year pick there of Andrew Luck. I don't think we'll see Jack Doyle move up at all in this offseason. But Eric Swoop, he's injured, he's week to week. Doyle is primed to be that sleeper tight end candidate.
- [04:25]
Mike Wright
Love it.
- [04:26]
Andy Holloway
And I don't think anything's moving because Andrew Luck is a question mark. So Mike, do you have a pick?
- [04:32]
Mike Wright
I do.
- [04:32]
Andy Holloway
I give you mine.
- [04:33]
Mike Wright
Okay, my guy. Because I'm going to project something to happen this weekend. This player, I talked about him yesterday. I would kind of just, you know, just mentioning that he looked good and he looked ready for the season. C.J. anderson gets to play the San Francisco 49ers. If he's going to put in a little bit more time with the starters, I think that when people see, okay, he's healthy, he's ready to go and I don't expect Jamal Charles to do anything of note, then I think that he will be able to rise up at least around because he's as of right now on fantasy football calculator, he's going in the fifth round and he's a starting running back. So it wouldn't shock me to see him put up a pretty solid performance against a bad defense and thus four. I don't know.
- [05:21]
Jason Moore
That's four, thus nailed it. Whatever.
- [05:23]
Mike Wright
I meant to say he's going to move up.
- [05:25]
Jason Moore
I think therefore would work.
- [05:26]
Andy Holloway
Yeah, therefore would have been good. Henceforth, I'm going to go with Cameron Meredith. I think you'll see flashes from Cameron Meredith in week two. He was sucking up some pretty bad targets from Glennon, but I think he was dropping targets. I think they figure it out this weekend and you see some big plays for Meredith in the first quarter and I think you start to hear the first rumblings of the stuff that we have said about Meredith for a while, which is he could be a viable wide receiver two candidate. So I'll go with that. I want to let everybody know we are giving away a signed David Johnson helmet. Full size helmet.
- [05:59]
Mike Wright
Are we sure we want to tell people that?
- [06:01]
Andy Holloway
Well, the counts out of the bag.
- [06:04]
Jason Moore
Similar to the centerpiece of our set.
- [06:06]
Andy Holloway
You can see that on YouTube. We're giving away an autograph David Johnson helmet. And you can enter@footclangiveaway.com it's free to enter. You can check out the different ways you can enter over there. We like to do a couple of giveaways every month. We do one on the show and then we do a bonus bonus, an extra giveaway with things like trophies and more autograph gear and DFS passes, all that kind of stuff. We do that over@jointhefoot.com as well. Just our way of giving back to the listener because we like you.
- [06:36]
Mike Wright
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's right.
- [06:38]
Jason Moore
That's true.
- [06:39]
Andy Holloway
That's fair. All right, so no big news. We're going to jump right into the rankings here and let's talk quarterbacks.
- [06:49]
Jason Moore
Quarterbacks.
- [06:51]
Andy Holloway
All right, top 10 quarterbacks, our consensus rankings. So we'll talk about where we each individually have players, what to expect from them in 2017, what last season look like and whether we expect repeats to happen. Number one. Our consensus number one quarterback is of course Jared Goff.
- [07:10]
Jason Moore
Oh, he's got Jared Goff pick number one for a reason, people.
- [07:14]
Andy Holloway
If he's won in the NFL, he's won in ffl. Welcome to the show. If it's your first time here, the real number one is Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers is our consensus number one. We all have a number one across the board right now. His average draft position is late second and last year. What can you say? 40 touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers. Ho hum. Over 4400 yards and a minuscule seven interceptions. Here's the headliner for me. People don't remember this. You know who the Third leading rusher is at the quarterback position. Last year it's Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick and then BAM. 51 attempts, 386 rushing yards, Aaron Rodgers. Those are the kind of numbers that we'd probably say, hey, you know, if Russell Wilson can get up to around 400 yards, he offers you that beautiful baseline. We don't talk about the rushing yardage for Aaron Rodgers very much because he gives you so many other things to talk about. But what is there to say?
- [08:14]
Jason Moore
Well, I think we should say this. He is the number one quarterback because he will almost for sure. I mean if he plays 16 games, he's going to finish as about the number one or number two quarterback. That's usually what he does if he's got.
- [08:26]
Andy Holloway
And that's 2008.
- [08:28]
Mike Wright
369 rushing, 369. Yes, I had missed, put down 386.
- [08:32]
Jason Moore
I did want to bring up the fact that we won't see, I don't, I don't imagine that we will see the Aaron Rodgers we saw last year. Not, not to that level repeat. He had his career high in attempts, his career high in completions, his career high in rushing yardage. All come last year when the running backs all, you know, got injured and they ended up having to take a wide receiver and say, you're our running back because we don't have any. They had to throw the ball more than the Green Bay packers usually like. That's obviously not to say Aaron Rodgers is not great, but you can't just look at last year's numbers and say this is what I'm going to get. I expect that he will have more down to normal Aaron Rodgers numbers when you. Which is still great. That's what I'm saying. He's still one or two. But it can't just be the same amount of output that he had last year if their running game is that much better.
- [09:26]
Mike Wright
Yeah, since 2011 when Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson played 12 more games together, he averages 4,400 yards and 40 touchdowns. So even if his volume comes down, Aaron Rodgers game is actually efficiency. It's not high volume. He's not a Drew Brees 5,000 yard passer.
- [09:47]
Andy Holloway
That's just, that's just a bonus. When he gets in that situation, he still provides quarterback one value.
- [09:52]
Mike Wright
He threw the ball 62 times inside the 10 yard line, which is unbelievable. And maybe that goes down a little bit if they can find a running game. But there's, it's. Aaron Rodgers is the best and he's going to, they're going to put him in the throat. Yeah. And they give him scoring possibilities frequently.
- [10:11]
Andy Holloway
QB 1 through 6. He finished inside that range from 1 through 6.
- [10:16]
Mike Wright
Okay. Yeah.
- [10:17]
Andy Holloway
QB 1 to 6, 47% of the time. So when you talk about consistency, difference making position, tell somebody why they shouldn't be drafting Rogers at 210. Tell them why you wouldn't draft him at 210. Because you can't talk that long about how good and how much of a difference maker he is and how consistent since 2008 he's finished inside the top seven without giving the other side of that equation.
- [10:39]
Mike Wright
Yeah, well, the difference is just strategy of. We talk about this show streaming, a quarterback waiting until the later rounds and that's just because the way that fantasy football works is and the NFL is a passing league now. Each quarterback throws at 20 plus times a game and it's not shocking at all to see low level quarterbacks throw 200 to 250 yards and two scores on a given week. Especially when you know that they're going to be up against a bad secondary. So it's. While Aaron Rodgers is the best, he won't be on any of my teams because I can replace him. 40 quarterbacks last year posted at least one week where they were a top 12 scorer. That ends just so we are on the same page. Yes, that's more than there are teams in the NFL because that's how, that's how reliable it is to look at a matchup of a quarterback versus a bad defense. You can say, well this guy's a backup, doesn't matter. He's a backup who's going to touch the ball on every single snap and he's going to throw a large amount of times. It's just because of where the rules are in the NFL and the rules, how they work in fantasy football, quarterbacks are just devalued. But if you want the best one, Aaron Rodgers is the best one.
- [11:52]
Andy Holloway
Let's talk about the only quarterback in the top eight to not play all 16 games last year. That was Andrew Luck. We talked about him earlier with the concerns about the shoulder and maybe being available in week one. However that knocks him back into the seventh round. And if that is just fear, that is not grounded in anything. Let's say let's just pretend he misses week one. Okay. Starts the season week two against Arizona. Andrew Luck in the seventh round seems like a steal. Am I wrong? 4,200 yards, 31 touchdowns and missed a game. Last year.
- [12:23]
Jason Moore
Yeah, Andrew Luck in the seventh round I think is, is going to be a good value. I expect that he could fall all the way in drafts to, you know, where he's going behind Matt Ryan in leagues because people are going to be afraid to pull that trigger on a guy that's injured. But what you need to realize is Andrew Luck has missed games before and he's come back strong over the last three years. All this, you know, all this love we're giving to Aaron Rodgers, rightfully so. But over the last three years, no quarterback has finished with more, you know, percent of their games as a quarterback one than Andrew Luck at 73.68%. That means if you are going to end up grabbing one of those earlier round quarterbacks, you need to make sure unlike, you know, the Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisbergers where they might finish as, you know, the third best quarterback. But half of the games are going to be great, half of the games are going to be bad. When you invest early in a quarterback, you want a guy who's going to do it week in, week out with consistency, whether they're home, on the road, you know that type. So I think Andrew Luck is actually the kind of when you combine draft strategy with high end quarterback, he's one of those guys that actually makes sense for helping you win a championship because you're not giving up a second round pick right now. On average you're giving up a seventh round pick. So you know, you're not, you're not losing that much. And what you are getting is a guy that's going to be very reliable.
- [13:47]
Mike Wright
Here's the do you have any concern oh, do you have any concern with Andrew Luck that last year Indianapolis gave up nearly three sacks a game? Andrew Luck took 41 sacks last year he's injured, he's going to likely miss week one because of damage he sustained from getting hit.
- [14:07]
Andy Holloway
Now it's probably not improved there either. I mean.
- [14:10]
Mike Wright
Right, and it certainly has not. But so is there, are we talking a high injury risk?
- [14:18]
Andy Holloway
I don't think so. I mean this surgery was to repair that labrum and I think you have to look at it. He's also one of the most mobile quarterbacks in football. You just talked about Aaron Rodgers. Well, he was seventh in rushing yards at the position. He had over 350 rushing yards. And what you lean on with Andrew Luck more than almost any other quarterback is the big play. I mean, he fits the mold of a fantasy big play guy. 11% of his attempts over 20 yards down the field in terms of his attempts to Hilton. Now you've got Moncrief there. You have Aiken 7.8 yards per attempt. I think you hope that he continues to do what he's had to do, which is they don't have a running game much like Aaron Rodgers didn't last year. You have to put it. Put it in his hands. Their defense wasn't that good and you have to hope he can stay upright.
- [15:09]
Mike Wright
And that's what I mean, though. You're hoping he could stay upright. When he got hit, he got sacked 41 times. And he puts himself. He's certainly mobile, but he puts himself in more danger because his running style is not like Aaron Rodgers, where Rodgers won't take hits. Andrew Luck is willing to do that because he's so big. I'm just saying that even in the seventh round, that sounds like it could be a great value for a guy who can be the quarterback. 1.
- [15:36]
Andy Holloway
But last two years, you have to draft another quarterback. If you draft Andrew Luck, that's the weird thing right now is if you think he's going to miss a week, you probably have to take a guy in the later rounds and have that insurance, at least for the first couple of weeks to see how he is.
- [15:50]
Mike Wright
Seven games played in 2015. Missed a game last year, is going to miss a game this year. Like, is it getting to the point where his body just can't bounce back as well? I'm just asking the question.
- [16:03]
Jason Moore
I don't think it's to that point. That's my honest answer. He's, you know, three years in a row played 16 games, and then last year he only started.
- [16:11]
Mike Wright
But that's what I mean.
- [16:12]
Jason Moore
Like last year he only missed one game. He's got the surgery to get better. I think that they're being slow with him to make sure that that re injury doesn't happen. I don't worry about injury with nearly any core.
- [16:23]
Andy Holloway
Who do you worry about more, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck getting hurt?
- [16:26]
Jason Moore
Cam, because he is running and taking different type of hits.
- [16:31]
Andy Holloway
Both had shoulder surgery in the offseason. Both get beat up.
- [16:34]
Mike Wright
I just have this fear that this. We will be having this conversation again next off season.
- [16:39]
Andy Holloway
I hope not.
- [16:40]
Mike Wright
Yeah, well, certainly we hope not.
- [16:43]
Andy Holloway
But is there an argument to be made for this next guy to be number one overall? Tom Brady, number three in our consensus ranks? Jason, you got him at number two. Mike, number four. I got him at three. I mean, where do you begin talking about Tom Brady? I think the most Insane statistic is two turnovers on the year by Tom Brady in total.
- [17:02]
Jason Moore
Seriously? Yeah.
- [17:04]
Andy Holloway
That's 0.4%. Derek Carr was the second best with nine total turnovers. He had two.
- [17:11]
Mike Wright
That's pretty good.
- [17:12]
Jason Moore
Tom Brady was unbelievable. You actually mentioned earlier that the only quarterback in the top eight we were going to talk about that missed games was Andrew Luck. That's not true.
- [17:21]
Mike Wright
Tom Brady, but he didn't finish his top 12 last year. That's what.
- [17:25]
Jason Moore
Sure, Tom Brady missed four games and had he not missed those games, Tom Brady would probably be going as the number one quarterback off the board because two years ago he was the number two best quarterback in fantasy and last year on a per game basis, he was as good as it gets. Now this year you add weapons to his arsenal. He gets, you know, pretty much every single receiver he had. Gronk is now healthy. You add Brandon Cooks again, we say every year, sure, but I mean we know that some years he has Gronk for 16. Last year he didn't. This year is going to be even better. And with Brandon Cooks, I think there's a reason that I've had Tom Brady as my number two quarterback from the get go. He's a guy if I'm in a redraft league and I don't care about age or having him around for any kind of long term. They're ready. The Patriots are the type of team that will set the world on fire. If they can. They will score.
- [18:17]
Andy Holloway
The words out of my mouth. I was wondering if we're trending towards seeing world. That was my words exactly. A world on fire type of year. You had his highest yards per attempt last year since 2011. You add a guy that's only going to increase that in Brandon Cooks. I mean, you're talking about second in the league in yards per attempt last year only behind Matt Ryan who lit it up with Gabriel and Julio. He was ahead of Andrew Luck in that department. He threw a touchdown every 15 passes last season. So like Mike was saying, you know the model of efficiency at the quarterback position. Is he your kind of. I mean he's going in the third round right now.
- [18:57]
Jason Moore
That's the problem.
- [18:58]
Andy Holloway
So he's being drafted right around Aaron Rodgers.
- [19:01]
Jason Moore
No, no. Foot glan member will be drafting Tom Brady. Tom Brady in a redraft because I hope not. Yeah, I mean if you listen to the show, you, you know the metrics and the stats that talk about, you know, the, the poor investment and giving up one of those high end running back or wide receivers to go to a replaceable position at quarterback. That's the tough part.
- [19:25]
Andy Holloway
If I were in a league and I owned Tom Aaron Rodgers and I thought I could go trade him in a redraft for Tom Brady, plus because of the name of Aaron Rodgers and because of Brady's age, I would be looking to make that move. I don't think you're going to see a very significant difference between them at all. I think you have the chance that Brady goes absolutely crazy and I think you can get value on top of him for an Aaron in an Aaron Rodgers situation. So I'd be looking to do that because I think Brady has every bit of the chance to finish at number one this year.
- [19:56]
Mike Wright
Yeah, these top guys is just splitting here, even with the next guy too.
- [20:02]
Jason Moore
It's almost more about. It's not about are they good and how will they perform and how have they performed? It's just about what do they cost you in your draft? What do you have to give up? And that's why I like Andrew Luck, because I don't have to give up what I do for the other three big guys. All right, before we get on, no.
- [20:20]
Andy Holloway
Drew Brees for you, huh?
- [20:21]
Jason Moore
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- [21:36]
Mike Wright
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- [22:37]
Andy Holloway
So check out Pristine just like Tennessee did.
- [22:40]
Mike Wright
That's right. It's P R I S T I n e auction.com youm make a completely free account. It's always free to bid. When you make that free account, let them know that the fantasy footballer sent you.
- [22:50]
Andy Holloway
All right. Mike is right. There's not a lot to talk about with these front, front half quarterbacks. You know their names, you know what they're going to do. So I do want to save us some time to get into some of these later guys.
- [22:59]
Mike Wright
But this is my number two guy.
- [23:01]
Andy Holloway
But Drew Brees is Mike's number two. And let me read you some numbers. This is from 2007 on where he finished in fantasy football, mind you, 16 games played in every game every year except for I think 1. He had 15 games played. 512-62-12663.
- [23:18]
Mike Wright
Yep, that's a nice song.
- [23:20]
Andy Holloway
You know what you get? It's a dun. You're done. And it's not like he's dropping off. He led the league in passing yards. He led the league in attempts and he had an insane 73% completion percentage. The only blemish on Drew Brees, one of maybe two. One would be home road split. The other one would be 15 interceptions, which was seventh most in the league. But when you're throwing the ball 673 times, it's going to happen, right?
- [23:44]
Mike Wright
Yeah. In his home Road splits, Look, they exist. He's 7 points since 2012. He's 7 points better at home. That's okay. I can deal with that. For Drew Brees, these are it's not Big Ben levels of the home road split and I'm not going to let one pimple on my nose, I'm not going to stop that, let that stop me from going to the prom and being the best with Drew Brees. So I love him. I think that of the big quarterbacks, he's the one who I think has the highest potential to finish as a top three quarterback. Mixed in.
- [24:19]
Andy Holloway
You want him in the fifth with.
- [24:21]
Mike Wright
The lower adp, I probably don't want him in the fifth. But I'm just saying of the guys we're talking about who the question marks on Drew Brees, while I would, I'd love the Andrew Luck value, there's just, there's a lot of question marks. So I'm not adding him into this. But of Rogers, Brady Brees, I will take Breeze. He's the latest of them and has just as much chance as Brady and Rogers to finish as the number two or number one guy.
- [24:46]
Jason Moore
I feel like if you grab Drew Brees, you have to be running two quarterbacks because while he will finish as, you know, a top six quarterback and very well will finish as a top three quarterback while he's done that, take the last two years as a sample size. The last two years. Here's some quarterbacks who have a higher percentage of of their games finishing as a quarterback. One, you have Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott and then the big three that we already mentioned on the show.
- [25:19]
Mike Wright
And how long is that?
- [25:20]
Jason Moore
That's over the last two years. So over the last two years it's.
- [25:24]
Mike Wright
Cheating throwing Dak in there. He's only played a year.
- [25:26]
Jason Moore
Well, sure, but I mean his percentage was great. So take Dak out. The point is really the three guys that matter to me are Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor. Those are guys you're getting in the double digit rounds and they have just as high a percentage chance of finishing as a quarterback one as but not top five. Yeah. Their upside is certainly when they hit, they're not hitting like Drew Brees. Drew Brees is going to go out there and throw you the 5 touchdown 400 yard game. He'll win you a week. That's why I'm just saying if you do take Drew Brees, I feel like you need to invest in a second quarterback.
- [25:57]
Andy Holloway
And that's a bold statement. Yeah, I don't want a bold prescription.
- [26:01]
Jason Moore
Say this from Dr. Last year I had Drew Brees and about half the games I didn't want to play him. And if I didn't, I would have helped my team.
- [26:09]
Andy Holloway
All right, we'll move on.
- [26:10]
Mike Wright
Okay. Oh, no.
- [26:12]
Jason Moore
Oh, what's happening?
- [26:13]
Andy Holloway
Dear diary, I can't convince my friend Jason to love Matt Ryan.
- [26:21]
Mike Wright
I don't feel like this is.
- [26:23]
Andy Holloway
This is not Ryan. Number five in our ranks. He has Julio and Gabriel and Freeman and Coleman and Hooper. And he completed more 40 plus yard plays than anybody in the league. He had more 20 plus yard plays than anybody in the league. He had more yards per attempt than anybody in the league.
- [26:43]
Mike Wright
Some people are stupid.
- [26:44]
Andy Holloway
But he won't accept him. He won't accept him into the elite. And I don't know what to do. He calls it an outlier. I'll talk to you tomorrow.
- [26:57]
Mike Wright
That was a big entry into the diary. That was a few pages.
- [27:01]
Jason Moore
Yeah.
- [27:01]
Andy Holloway
All right, Jay, sing it to us. 5,000 yards, 38 touchdowns, seven picks. I think we know, we know the tale, but he's going in the sixth round in PPR league.
- [27:13]
Jason Moore
Yeah. I mean, I would never draft Matt Ryan in the sixth round of a PPR league because I don't see him.
- [27:18]
Andy Holloway
As, I don't like points.
- [27:21]
Jason Moore
I don't see him as a truly elite fantasy quarterback. I mean, everything you just named, of all the incredible statistics, you can, you know, you can paint that either direct. You've said so many times, Andy, on other players. You don't like when a guy sets career highs pretty much across the board and has their highest touchdowns and their highest yards and, you know, pretty much their best season of, you know, their entire career. Especially when it's deep into the career, you know, when this isn't like, oh, maybe he took that third year leap forward.
- [27:51]
Andy Holloway
Brooks, do I say that? Have I said that before?
- [27:54]
Mike Wright
It's just the implication that they are. Will not do that again.
- [27:57]
Andy Holloway
Brooks is shaking his head no. He said, I never said that before.
- [28:00]
Jason Moore
Okay, well, you have certainly said it before, Mike. Has he has Andy talked about he doesn't like when a guy.
- [28:05]
Mike Wright
I don't know verbatim, but I know what you mean because when you set a career high the next year, you get drafted with certain expectations.
- [28:13]
Andy Holloway
Is he being drafted like that? Like the sixth round is not being drafted that way? It would be the third round with Tom Brady with a quarterback because he.
- [28:20]
Mike Wright
Finished two with the quarterback.
- [28:21]
Jason Moore
Andrew Luck is seventh round right now. Andrew.
- [28:24]
Andy Holloway
Oh come on.
- [28:25]
Mike Wright
You can't use Andrew Luck.
- [28:26]
Andy Holloway
That's terrible.
- [28:27]
Jason Moore
Andrew Luck was.
- [28:28]
Andy Holloway
Andrew Luck is seventh round. He's heard. That's why he was a fifth round guy.
- [28:31]
Jason Moore
Andrew Luck was a fifth round guy. Right.
- [28:33]
Andy Holloway
I'm saying. And that's my point. Matt Ryan's a six round guy. That's the value. You prove my point.
- [28:38]
Jason Moore
Otherwise he'd be drafted 14th round guy.
- [28:40]
Mike Wright
We're not, we're not arguing the late round guys yet.
- [28:43]
Andy Holloway
But I just don't. None of the arguments make sense.
- [28:45]
Jason Moore
Here's an argument.
- [28:46]
Mike Wright
Let me get this out. Quarterbacks, you see it every year, well, nearly every year, whoever was last year's number one quarterback, they are drafted as the first quarterback off the board the following year.
- [28:59]
Andy Holloway
Yes.
- [28:59]
Mike Wright
That happens with Rogers. That happened with Cam Newton, Brady, when Brad, like when guys do that, they, they skyrocket in next year's draft. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan has that. Has the pessimism already baked into his ADP because he's apparently the first quarterback.
- [29:17]
Andy Holloway
No, just that he's being drafted behind.
- [29:20]
Mike Wright
Go, go back to your belittling of elite, Matt Ryan.
- [29:24]
Jason Moore
Sure. It's all about the touchdowns for me. All about.
- [29:27]
Andy Holloway
He had too many.
- [29:28]
Jason Moore
Yes, his per. Yes, he did.
- [29:30]
Mike Wright
His per.
- [29:31]
Jason Moore
His per 16 game pace over his entire career was 26 touchdowns. He threw 38 touchdowns last year. Let me read you some of the names of guys that caught touchdowns. Okay. You had DJ Talavia, Joshua Perkins. Sounds like a Patrick DeMarco, Levine Toy, Lolo, Aldrich Robinson. These are guys now who caught two each. You had Justin Hardy with four touchdowns, Taylor Gabriel, 6.
- [29:56]
Andy Holloway
I'm just saying he sounds like a benevolent quarterback.
- [29:58]
Jason Moore
Oh, very benevolent. Where was he for the previous, you know, decade of his career?
- [30:03]
Andy Holloway
I got a hot step for you.
- [30:04]
Jason Moore
Because did he not have a bunch of those since 2016?
- [30:07]
Andy Holloway
He's averaged 38 touchdowns per game.
- [30:10]
Jason Moore
You, you can have him. You can have him. And if you think that he's going to, if he's going to throw 30.
- [30:15]
Andy Holloway
I'm just having fun.
- [30:16]
Jason Moore
Look, I will draft him.
- [30:18]
Andy Holloway
Here's something I actually have said. No words to put in my mouth. Look, I've told Jason, last time we debated Matt Ryan. Look, when you, when you come right down to it, asking him to repeat, it's pretty much going to be impossible. Asking him to have a very, very good year at a six round adp, I don't think is unreasonable. I'm surprised he's not being drafted with all this hype baked into him. I don't know what happens Let me ask you this. What happens if they hold on and win the Super Bowl? Is that enough of a difference in people's mind? The super bowl champion, number two, fantasy quarterback coming into this year, I wonder if he goes up two rounds.
- [30:56]
Jason Moore
He probably would, but now he's a loser. We're fickle people, Andy.
- [31:01]
Mike Wright
We are.
- [31:01]
Andy Holloway
All right, Russell Wilson, number six. I have him at six. Jason, you got him at four. Mike at eight. I see all the beautiful things about Russell Wilson, the most beautiful ever since he came into the league. He finished 10, 8, 3, 3, 11. You've got a top 12 quarterback in Russell Wilson. You got him in the seventh round. You take in Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck right now.
- [31:20]
Jason Moore
Ooh.
- [31:24]
Mike Wright
Probably Luck.
- [31:25]
Jason Moore
Yeah, I think I'm still on the Luck side, but it's certainly close. I've been a big Russell Wilson supporter forever. It's a matter of their average draft position, really. I mean, I think both those guys are elite. Get the job done, guys. Both of them finish ahead of Matt Ryan this year. And so whichever one is later, that's.
- [31:46]
Andy Holloway
The one I would snag.41 sacks last year, second most in the league. Still managed the fourth most rushing attempts despite the injury to the ankles, but those increased in the second half of the year. Do they. Have they done enough to improve his odds of success behind that offensive line? Because if he's having to move the way he had to move last year, propensity to get hurt, having a hard time, you know, having to absorb a lot of sacks, which means some turnovers. Have they done anything that gives you a reason to believe that that's changed?
- [32:16]
Jason Moore
No, not on the offensive line, but.
- [32:17]
Mike Wright
I mean, he's pretty used to that so far, and it hasn't stopped him from finishing as a top 12 quarterback. Now, last year was the beginning of the year was rough, man. If you had, if you had invested high in Russell Wilson. And that's, that's another problem with the thing about investing high in these quarterbacks is, is last year Russell Wilson was probably, if I'm recalling, right, like a.
- [32:43]
Andy Holloway
Fourth round pick, he was going in the third.
- [32:46]
Mike Wright
I mean, he was, it was very high up in the adp. You draft him, you spend that draft price on him, you know what he can do. You're stuck. You're playing him every single week. Meanwhile, you see quarterbacks on the waiver while you see Brian hoyer putting up three straight 300 yard games, but you can't make that move because you spent.
- [33:02]
Andy Holloway
A third round, and that goes with any quarterback. You dropped in those first three rounds and yeah, that's.
- [33:06]
Mike Wright
So that's just another feather in the hat of avoiding the early round quarterbacks. But of course we talk about these guys because some people want to play the game where they take the quarterback early. And you should know how we feel about these guys because maybe they do start slipping in draft because the name of the game is.
- [33:24]
Jason Moore
Or you're in a two quarterback league, in which case.
- [33:26]
Mike Wright
Yeah, absolutely.
- [33:27]
Jason Moore
Position scarcity.
- [33:27]
Mike Wright
Saying that the name of the game is not passing on the value of those early wide receivers and running backs. So if you're in a league where everyone's taking a really late quarterback, don't be afraid to draft Aaron Rodgers in the sixth round.
- [33:43]
Andy Holloway
Because I am not afraid.
- [33:45]
Mike Wright
I'm talking to the people right now. I don't want them to think that I'm saying, under no circumstances will I draft these guys. It's just about the right time. And usually you're not going to get that.
- [34:00]
Andy Holloway
All right, Mike and I have this next guy at number seven. Jason's got him a little lower. Captain Kirk himself. Kirk Cousins comes in at number seven on our consensus rankings last year. Just under 5,000 yards, 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. No more Garcon and D. Jacks. No more Sean McVay at the offensive coordinator position. You bring in Matt Kavanaugh and you bring in Terrell Pryor. Hopefully you'll have a healthy Josh Doxson. An ascendant Jameson Crowder last year, just to give you the context of how good he was, especially in the second half of the year. 8.1 yards per attempt, third most in the league. Almost 5,000 yards, as we said. Interesting stat though with Jordan Reed healthy, averaged just under two touchdowns a game. Much better Without Jordan reed, it was 1.17 touchdowns a game, 290 yards a game with Reed versus 253 without. It's not rocket science to say you got good players so you have more yards, but it doesn't always equate. You look at Andy Dalton, he actually put up very similar total yardage numbers with or without A.J. green. But in this situation, a lot of dependency on Reed. I think a lot of that has to do with not having red zone weapons outside of Reed because you had no height. With Garcon and Jackson, I combined them right there to Darson, if you notice. But with Pryor and with Dachshund, you've got bigger guys.
- [35:18]
Mike Wright
They're a celebrity couple.
- [35:19]
Andy Holloway
Darson, Dawson. Dawson is gone.
- [35:22]
Jason Moore
Here's the question I have. When it comes to Kirk Cousins. I like Kirk Cousins. I think he is a very good fantasy quarterback and a pretty good real life quarterback. The question I have, and I know my answer to it and I think it's different than Andy's answer, so I will ask Mike, is do you think that the passing, the receiving weapons that Kirk Cousins has this year. So Terrell Pryor, theoretically a healthy dachshund, Reed Crowder, do you think those are better or worse than when he had, you know, obviously injured? Darcon Darson, desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed, how do you see the past? Are they an equal same as last year? Are they better? Are they worse?
- [36:09]
Mike Wright
I would say that they are on paper like as of right, right now, probably slightly worse. But the ceiling of having Terrell Pryor and Josh Dockson, two huge men playing wide receiver and the improvement of Crowder, who that now he's the two. Right. They've said that in two wide receiver sets it's going to be Terrell Pryor and Jameson Crowder. And so as as long as Josh Dachshund can be adequate, then I believe it is actually an upgrade. We're adding in Terrell Pryor, who's faster than. Okay, maybe not, but at least as fast as Sean Jackson, except a much larger target for Cousins.
- [36:52]
Andy Holloway
I think desean Jackson would take offense to that claim.
- [36:55]
Mike Wright
Well, of course he would.
- [36:56]
Andy Holloway
I don't think he's as fast as DeSean Jackson, but he's, he's quick. All right. Interesting fact about him. You know, we've talked about the possible, what we call positive aggression. So what we're saying is an improvement here towards more of an average. If you throw for 5,000 yards, you're expecting more than 25 touchdowns. You saw this with Derek Carr last year. Bad 10 zone touchdown percentage. For Cousins, he was 21% of the time. That's 25th out of 26 qualified. So we'd hope that that would change, especially with bigger weapons in the red zone. All right, this might be the biggest surprise on our list. Number eight, the Red Rocket. Andy Dalton, Red Rifle. I just called him the Red Rocket, though. That's his nickname.
- [37:44]
Jason Moore
Yeah, his nickname is the Red Rifle, but we have always nicknamed him the Red Rocket. I'm. I'm pretty sure, yeah, I believe that's it.
- [37:51]
Andy Holloway
I believe Brooks is nodding. So apparently that's the case.
- [37:55]
Jason Moore
Now here's the thing. We have him as our consensus number eight quarterback.
- [37:59]
Andy Holloway
Overall.
- [38:00]
Jason Moore
He is on in average draft position. He is the 18th quarterback off the board.
- [38:08]
Mike Wright
So this that's fine. That's fine.
- [38:10]
Jason Moore
This is why you, you know, this is why at least we do don't draft, you know, half of these guys we're talking about. I mean, why would I draft Matt Ryan in the seventh when Andy Dalton, I think, is going to be just as good as Matt Ryan for fantasy? And he is absolutely free, you know, as the 18th quarterback off the board, you might not even have him drafted when you're done in your league.
- [38:34]
Mike Wright
You can't do that because you know that Andy or I will trust him.
- [38:36]
Andy Holloway
Sure.
- [38:37]
Jason Moore
Yes, we will grab him, you know, as the probably the 12th or 13th quarterback off the board in whatever league we're in.
- [38:44]
Andy Holloway
Look, one of the craziest stats about Andy Dalton, and I love him. I have him at eight. That's the highest of the three of us. So I absolutely agree with you. I think he's this year's Matt Ryan. Last year, Matt Ryan threw a touchdown every nine completions. Andy Dalton threw a touchdown every 20 completions. So you're talking about a 2x for Matt Ryan and how efficient he was. Dalton was down in the case Keenum, Alex Smith range.
- [39:08]
Mike Wright
And that's not normal and.
- [39:09]
Jason Moore
No, it's not.
- [39:10]
Andy Holloway
That's the point. It's not normal. And when he has Eifert, the touchdown totals have been much higher. 1.65 TDs with him versus 1.11 without.
- [39:20]
Mike Wright
Well, he threw a touchdown on 3.2% of his passes last year. His previous four years, 5.3. So huge, huge dip in his normal.
- [39:31]
Andy Holloway
Career trajectory has shown he can finish the season as a top five quarterback. In 2013, he was number five. And in 2015, he was in the top three before his injury. And that is what is built into this beautiful draft price, is you have him going in the 12th round, a free quarterback. All the weapons back. A.J. green, Tyler Ifer, Jill Bernard, now Joe.
- [39:55]
Jason Moore
Mixon, Brandon Lefell and Tyler Boyd are.
- [39:59]
Andy Holloway
And John Ross. We don't even talk about John Ross. And so I think he's the best value sleeper, whatever you want to call him, the best quarterback value in all of fantasy football.
- [40:10]
Jason Moore
When you have to rely on changing pieces that are. That are negative change, you know, negative changes. I really don't like. I really don't like when a quarterback has to deal with, you know, departures of people they're used to and fresh faces. That's what Dalton had to deal with last year. Last year he had to deal with that when Sanu left and Marvin Jones left. So now he has that Rapport built in with Brandon Lefell, with Tyler Boyd. Obviously he's got it great with AJ Green and Tyler Ifert. Go ahead and throw in, you know, a couple rookie awesome pass catchers, but he now has a team that he has experience with and, you know, an explosive offensive opportunity here. I think there are, I just love when there are noticeable reasons for why he was inefficient last year that are now different for this. Everything lines up for it to be easier to project a step forward for him.
- [41:07]
Andy Holloway
All right, 9 and 10 on the list from our quarterback rankings. First top 10 rankings that we're breaking out. Dak Prescott, philip rivers at 9 and 10. Let's talk about Dak. I mean it's, it would be unfair of me to look at the season Matt Ryan had and all of the career highs and the weapons and the opportunity that I think he has to not repeat every number, but have a very good fantasy season and not try to apply some of that logic to Dak Prescott. I mean, you look at third best pass rating in the league, 72% completion percentage, six touchdowns for every interception, only eight turnovers on the year. I mean that is so impressive for a rookie. Also ran the ball 44 times. My hesitation with Dak has been, look, that efficiency number, we haven't seen it for multiple years. He was fresh into the league, but it's hard to really make an argument against him other than the fact that look, he didn't have a huge touchdown total, but he got the job done week in and week out. He wasn't giving you number one, number two, number three quarterback weeks. He was giving you number five, number six, number seven, number eight, but he was doing it almost every week. So look, Mike, you buy in the most. You have him at 9, I'm at 13, Jason right in the middle at 11. I want to hear from Mike and then we'll move on and we'll talk about Philip Rivers.
- [42:24]
Mike Wright
I think that deck proved it last last year. I think he's incredibly smart. He, he's efficient and he's a, what are the multi threat quarterback. You can't just worry about keeping Dak Prescott in the pocket or he's going to make you pay in the running game. He has one of the best wide receivers in football and DEZ Bryant. I'm projecting a big step back for Dallas, the secondary. So a game script that's not as friendly for zeke or Darren McFadden for the, for the running game for Dallas. And there were, there were five quarterbacks last year who were a QB one at least 10, 10 or more times. And four of those names you would expect to hear. The fifth one you would not expect to hear is Dak Prescott. Now, I hope that Dak can give you more of those boom weeks, more of those top five, top three type of performances, because I think that he is more than capable. He had six rushing touchdowns last year and these were designed runs. This wasn't him scrambling because a play broke down and he made it to the edge and scored. It was. He was. It was a play action read or a read option play or the second read was to run. So I just. I'm projecting improvement for Dakota and he was tremendous last year.
- [43:46]
Andy Holloway
Let me ask you both this question. Did you adjust Dak Prescott at all with regards to Ezekiel 6 game suspension?
- [43:53]
Jason Moore
Yeah, I did. I took a touchdown away from him and that moved him down because I had him a little bit higher as well. I do believe that he is a very, very good quarterback, but I think without Zeke there to open things up a little bit more for him, it's going to hurt the offense as a whole. So I took one touchdown away.
- [44:15]
Andy Holloway
All right, Philip Rivers. I'm taking this number 10. Yet you just took it. You just took it away.
- [44:21]
Jason Moore
Let's see who I'll give it to. Maybe Andy Dalton.
- [44:24]
Andy Holloway
It looks like he gave it to Philip Rivers.
- [44:26]
Mike Wright
Like energy. There's only so many touchdowns in the league.
- [44:29]
Andy Holloway
You have to just distribute 100 touchdowns across all the players. Look, you took it and you gave it to Philip Rivers because you got him in number seven on your rankings, which is bold, my friend. I've got him in a 12 mike at 14. It's not like we haven't seen it before, but really hasn't been a top 12 guy since 2013. But I think a lot of fantasy owners don't realize this was a quarterback who last year had 33 touchdowns. I mean, that is number four in the league. And I don't think people thought of Philip Rivers as the number four guy in touchdowns because he had 21 interceptions.
- [45:01]
Mike Wright
I mean, that's killing you.
- [45:02]
Andy Holloway
Number one in the league. He had to do so much. Jason, why do you love Philip Rivers this season? Because, and I'm curious, if you take Rivers or you'd take Dalton. Would you rather have rivers in the 10th round or Dalton in the 12th?
- [45:13]
Jason Moore
No, I'd probably rather have Dalton in the 12th. I mean, Dalton is really at that point for me. There's a lot of guys in those, you know, I would say 7 through 11 range where the difference to me in having Andy Dalton and Philip Rivers is nothing. I mean you might say, oh well, one is my seventh ranked and one is my 13th ranked. But if you look at the actual points projection, there's almost no difference between a lot of these.
- [45:39]
Andy Holloway
Rivers has a higher Grimaces per play.
- [45:41]
Jason Moore
Oh man, if you get grimaces per play, you, I mean Rivers and Eli Manning are first and second rounders in.
- [45:48]
Andy Holloway
The Grimaces per play.
- [45:49]
Jason Moore
Yes, for sure. Especially if there's bonus points for blaming passes on other on your receiving options.
- [45:55]
Mike Wright
Your gift potential with Rivers is also much higher.
- [45:58]
Jason Moore
It sure is.
- [46:00]
Mike Wright
You factor these when you're drafting.
- [46:02]
Jason Moore
Oh, you have to, you have to know. I mean, what kind of gifts am I going to get?
- [46:07]
Andy Holloway
What kind of memes can come out of this quarterback?
- [46:09]
Jason Moore
Absolutely. Because fantasy football is fun. First. So here's the thing with Philip Rivers. I think last year we saw, because of the decimation of the offense around him.
- [46:18]
Andy Holloway
Nice word.
- [46:19]
Jason Moore
The loss of offensive linemen, the loss of Keenan Allen, you know, the loss of Danny Woodhead. There was just so much that kind of forced Philip Rivers to play with a brand new team. I was just talking about this. When you see a guy who has a change for his receiving options and it's, you know, for all intents and purposes a negative change, you're downgrading from what you're used to. He had to figure out how.
- [46:49]
Andy Holloway
How does Tyrell Williams, Darrell Williams blaming those guys.
- [46:51]
Jason Moore
How does Tyrell Williams, you know, run routes? How does Dontrell Inman run routes? How does Travis Benjamin run routes? And all of a sudden you had Benjamin looked healthy. Finally you had Philip Rivers, you know, go from 13 interceptions a year before to 21 interceptions. A lot of that also was game script because they had these wacky games last year where they were leading and then they, and then all of a sudden the teams were pinning their ears at them and coming after them. I expect the interceptions to go down and I think that's the biggest change between what caused him depending on your league. If you play in like we do, where it's minus two points for an interception, I think Philip Rivers is going to have a pretty big swing this year because he's got his weapons back healthy and another year of rapport with the guys that were new last year.
- [47:42]
Andy Holloway
He's one of my least favorite opponents in fantasy football. I hate playing against teams with Philip Rivers because you just never know when he's going to come out, light it up. He's got the ability to do it Number one, Aaron Rodgers. Number two, Andrew Luck. Number three, Tom Brady. Number four, Drew Brees. Number five, Matt Ryan. Number six, Russell Wilson. Number seven, Kirk Cousins. Number eight, Andy Dalton. Number nine, Dak Prescott. And number ten and Philip Rivers. And we will be back with more quarterback rankings tomorrow. Little reminder for everybody, the Secret to Victory is a new podcast from Gatorade and Gimlet Creative about how the best athletes in the world use defeat to fuel a win. And this week you'll hear from J.J. watt, who, by the way, T.J. watt looked pretty darn good.
- [48:22]
Jason Moore
Yeah, he did.
- [48:23]
Andy Holloway
J.J. watt will talk about how he worked his way from college, walk on to NFL Defensive Player of the Year. You can go to Gatorade.com podcast to listen now or subscribe wherever you get your podcast. A shout out to the Foot Clan thanks to everybody who has subscribed so far to the Fantasy Footballers DFS podcast. Yeah, baby. Mike Wright, Ben Cummins, Chris Meaney once a week, all year long, bringing you dfs for the rest of us, the best DFS tips, tricks, information, predictions for each and every week. Every Friday that podcast is going to come out and you can get that on itunes, you can get that on Google Play, and I can tell you outside looking in at this thing, the production quality is what you've come to expect from a fantasy footballers podcast. A lot of time and effort have gone into that and we know you love DFS out there. So those that do, or those that are just breaking in.
- [49:13]
Mike Wright
Yeah, please. If you check it out, if you've never played dfs, listen to this show and you will get you right in there kicking booty, taking names.
- [49:22]
Andy Holloway
Any parting words for the Foot Clan guys? Anything you want to remember, I'll remind you. Footclangiveway.com if you want to enter the David Johnson helmet contest.
- [49:30]
Mike Wright
I want to remind people about the live show. My man.
- [49:33]
Andy Holloway
Okay.
- [49:33]
Mike Wright
We're doing a live show. The podcast. We're doing a live in Phoenix, Arizona.
- [49:38]
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
- [49:39]
Jason Moore
On September 4th.
- [49:40]
Mike Wright
September 4th.
- [49:40]
Andy Holloway
It's now Labor Day.
- [49:41]
Mike Wright
The tickets are available now@ballerslive.com come hang out. Is going to be oodles and caboodles of noodles and fun.
- [49:52]
Jason Moore
You'll get your questions answered.
- [49:54]
Mike Wright
Yeah, answer questions, get a hug, get a. Whatever, man.
- [49:57]
Andy Holloway
We're going to give Mike some medicine. He'll be a little more calm at the event.
- [50:01]
Mike Wright
You can't hold me down.
- [50:03]
Andy Holloway
I know. Check out playdraft.com ballers if you're looking to play some best ball, some DFS. Each and every week we love the guys over there. Playdraft.com ballers goodbye.
- [50:13]
Jason Moore
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.