Fantasy Football 2018 - Early QB Rankings

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast: Early QB Rankings Summary

Episode: Fantasy Football 2018 - Early QB Rankings
Release Date: April 19, 2018
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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1. Introduction and Episode Focus

The Fantasy Footballers kick off the episode by diving into their primary topic: Early Quarterback (QB) Rankings for the 2018 fantasy football season. They briefly touch upon upcoming discussions on rookie quarterbacks, setting the stage for an in-depth analysis of established and emerging QBs.

2. Drafting Strategies and QB Selection

The hosts discuss various strategies for drafting quarterbacks, emphasizing the value of selecting a high-performing QB early versus waiting for a reliable option in later rounds. They highlight the benefits of streaming quarterbacks, where managers can pick and switch QBs based on weekly matchups to maximize points without committing to a single player early on.

Notable Quote:

Jason Moore [02:02]: "When you spend a late draft pick on a quarterback that ends up being a year-long starter, you don't even have to play the week-to-week game. You just lock him in."

3. Detailed Early QB Rankings

a. Aaron Rodgers – Number 1

Aaron Rodgers leads the rankings, praised for his consistency and high touchdown potential. Despite missing Jordy Nelson, Rodgers remains a fantasy powerhouse due to his ability to produce substantial points each game.

Notable Quote:

Mike Wright [08:07]: "Aaron Rodgers is my, by far, my number one guy."

b. Russell Wilson – Number 2

Russell Wilson secures the second spot thanks to his dual-threat capability, combining passing yards with significant rushing yards. However, the hosts express concerns over early-season struggles and potential team changes that might affect his performance.

Notable Quote:

Andy Holloway [12:00]: "Aaron Rodgers is my, by far, my number one guy."

c. Tom Brady – Number 3

Tom Brady is ranked third, lauded for his exceptional game management and reliable production. While Brady offers remarkable consistency, there's a debate over whether his performance truly justifies his placement above other top-tier QBs.

Notable Quote:

Jason Moore [17:55]: "So in that scenario, I would much rather have Cam."

d. Cam Newton – Number 4

Cam Newton is placed fourth, recognized for his explosive rushing ability that significantly boosts his fantasy value. However, his high variance in performance leads to discussions about his reliability compared to more consistent QBs like Brady.

Notable Quote:

Mike Wright [18:10]: "Cam Newton will give you huge monster games."

4. Mid-Tier QB Evaluations

e. Kirk Cousins – Number 5

Kirk Cousins is somewhat controversially placed at number five, with the hosts debating his overhyped potential versus actual performance metrics. While some see value in his consistent passing yards, others question his overall impact on fantasy success.

Notable Quote:

Jason Moore [19:17]: "Kirk Cousins, I have him at nine. Jason has him at six. Mike has him at five."

f. Drew Brees – Number 6

Drew Brees occupies the sixth spot, sparking a heated discussion about his recent performance dip. While his passing yards remain impressive, the decrease in touchdown rates raises concerns about his fantasy reliability.

Notable Quote:

Andy Holloway [21:33]: "He is a Hall of Famer. He's great. But I think that this is the Drew Brees we're going to see is, you know, a manage the game, be smart, be accurate."

g. Deshaun Watson – Number 7

Deshaun Watson is tied for seventh, noted for his high touchdown rate but also for the unpredictability of his performance. The hosts debate the sustainability of his peak performance levels and the risks associated with his injury history.

Notable Quote:

Mike Wright [31:08]: "That's impossible. But what can he actually do when we're out of the realm of the stratosphere and castles on clouds?"

h. Andrew Luck – Number 8

Andrew Luck is ranked eighth, with significant concerns about his injury history overshadowing his potential. The hosts discuss the uncertainty surrounding his return and the impact it may have on his fantasy value.

Notable Quote:

Jason Moore [34:12]: "He hasn't thrown the Duke yet."

5. Lower-Tier QB Discussions

The conversation moves towards quarterbacks ranked from ninth onward, including Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, and Jimmy Garoppolo. The hosts weigh the pros and cons of each, considering factors like offensive weapons, consistency, and injury risks.

Notable Quote:

Mike Wright [43:44]: "The reemergence of Keenan Allen, he did. He got the interceptions under control last year."

6. Mailbag Segment: Listener Questions and Advice

The hosts address listener inquiries, providing tailored advice based on different league settings and specific player scenarios.

a. Tight Ends and Wide Receivers Sharing Roster Spots

Question: How does having tight ends and wide receivers share roster positions affect draft strategies?

Response: The hosts advise that in such setups, top-tier tight ends like Gronkowski and Ertz can be highly valuable but are limited. Managers are encouraged to prioritize wide receivers first and only draft tight ends if they fall within the expected draft range without overcommitting resources.

Notable Quote:

Jason Moore [52:07]: "If you're not backed into starting a tight end, don't have to start a tight end."

b. Trading Antonio Brown in Dynasty Leagues

Question: Is this the right offseason to trade Antonio Brown in Dynasty leagues, and what should be expected in return?

Response: The consensus is that trading Antonio Brown is viable for teams looking to rebuild. However, trading him would likely mean sacrificing current performance for potential future gains, making it risky for managers aiming to compete immediately.

Notable Quote:

Andy Holloway [54:28]: "If you're in the running, which I feel like if you've got Antonio Brown, that's a pretty darn good building block to build a team around."

c. Comparing Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry in PPR Leagues

Question: Will Josh Gordon outscore Jarvis Landry, and will either outscore Larry Fitzgerald in PPR leagues?

Response: Mike Wright confidently predicts that neither Josh Gordon nor Jarvis Landry will surpass Larry Fitzgerald in PPR formats. He suggests prioritizing reliability over potential high ceilings with these players.

Notable Quote:

Mike Wright [56:08]: "They will not outscore Larry and I would in a PPR league."

7. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The Fantasy Footballers wrap up the episode by reiterating the importance of strategic quarterback drafting and being mindful of each player's potential and risks. They encourage listeners to leverage their detailed rankings and strategies to dominate their fantasy leagues.

Takeaway: Selecting the right quarterback early can set the foundation for a successful fantasy season. Managers should consider factors like consistency, offensive support, and injury history when making their choices.

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For more insights and detailed player evaluations, listeners are encouraged to visit thefantasyfootballers.com and join their fantasy football community.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, foot clan. Today's show is brought to you by fantasychamps.com not only can you get awesome trophies and gear for all of your victories, but you can get unbelievable custom fantasy football jerseys with your team name, your favorite number, your color scheme. Go to fantasychamps.com use the promo code ballers to save 10%. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Ah, welcome in. So fine, so fine to be back. Thursday, April 19, the fantasy footballers Podcast. How you doing, guys?

[Mike Wright]

I was letting you handle that one yourself. It was just going so well.

[Jason Moore]

It's been one of those days.

[Andy Holloway]

It's going great, man. It's going fantastic. I'm a little upset that it is not already the NFL draft, but. Oh, it's. It's so soon.

[Jason Moore]

Mere moments.

[Andy Holloway]

And I'm so happy that today we're covering the quarterback rankings for rookies, Right?

[Jason Moore]

No, no.

[Andy Holloway]

Dang it. What? Dang it.

[Jason Moore]

We're doing our early quarterback rankings and then we'll talk rookies very, very soon. This is the time when you should get the spot on the couch ready though. Like you should lay your claim so that nobody else can take it.

[Mike Wright]

Get the police tape.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Mark it off.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

Get the snacks ready.

[Jason Moore]

I can't wait.

[Andy Holloway]

Always have the snacks ready. Mike, don't be a fool.

[Jason Moore]

I know Jason's been doing work. He's got his early rookie quarterback rankings. Terrible rankings.

[Andy Holloway]

Just does have them done the worst.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, wrong order, but right names.

[Andy Holloway]

All my film study eyes closed.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Which I don't understand.

[Andy Holloway]

Just to show off.

[Jason Moore]

Doesn't make just to show off. Look what I can do. All right, today, quick, quick question. What's your favorite personal example of drafting a quarterback late in fantasy drafts and hitting on the year long starter? We talk all about streaming quarterbacks. This is the gold mine though. You spend a late draft pick on a quarterback that ends up being a year long starter. You don't even have to play the week to week game. You just lock him in. And that's called the old lock and mock. You lock them in and then you mock your league mates.

[Mike Wright]

Nice.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike, do you have an example?

[Mike Wright]

I didn't know who you were going to pass.

[Andy Holloway]

I think we all have examples. But you know, Mike, you've led the charge, you've got a lot of them. So we'll let you kick it off.

[Jason Moore]

I don't. I'm surprised you even the ability to pick one.

[Mike Wright]

This one was my favorite.

[Jason Moore]

You Got a bucket full.

[Mike Wright]

Because the. It just summarizes, you know, fantasy football as a whole. 2015, I took Carson Palmer. I took him in the 10th round very late. I believe I was the last team to grab a starting quarterback. I had, with Carson Palmer's help, the highest scoring team in the history of that league. Still hold the record. And I took home third place.

[Jason Moore]

You're definitely 100% the only person who knows that stat about that team.

[Mike Wright]

I just happened to look it up today.

[Andy Holloway]

But you only know that stat because you. When you don't win the championship because you're like, I need something. I did it. Look. That's right. I did it.

[Jason Moore]

I should have won.

[Andy Holloway]

Who do you think? Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

By the way, I would have crushed the championship match had I not been.

[Jason Moore]

Year that I won.

[Mike Wright]

This is a different league.

[Jason Moore]

This is my money league.

[Andy Holloway]

Mine was from that, that same year. Great year for me. It was. Cam Newton finished the number one quarterback. Went very late.

[Jason Moore]

2015.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, in 2015. Went very, very late. I looked up his ADP today. He was double digits back in 2015.

[Mike Wright]

Do you remember how you acquired him?

[Andy Holloway]

So actually, I guess. I guess this is a slight misnomer because it was right after the draft. It was waivers. So he went undrafted that year?

[Mike Wright]

No, he was on my team. Oh, yeah. And then he stunk week one. And I said that. I knew it. Cam Newton, you bum. And I dropped him and I picked.

[Andy Holloway]

Him up and had the number one quarterback for us the year. I thank you greatly, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

Mike has the ability. He's done this before. RG3, Tony Romo, other players. But what the worst part about Mike is everybody knows what Mike's doing. And in many drafts, people have tried to identify the guy he was targeting super, super late and then steal him from him. And then Mike just takes somebody else and they're fine, too.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Because it's a quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So I. Look, I'll bring you back in time to a great old story.

[Andy Holloway]

It's the worst story.

[Jason Moore]

Kurt Warner, when he was battling with Matt Leinert in preseason, looked a lot better than Matt Leinert against the Raiders preseason, week three. And I just walked over and I believe it was like 2013. I clicked the old sign button and I rode him to a championship game.

[Mike Wright]

From my perspective, 2013. I'm just going to help you out with that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Because he was not playing football in 2013.

[Andy Holloway]

But when that year was, I remember, I remember the preseason game three game. And I, I saw the exact same thing that Andy Holloway Saw, I went to my computer and literally I was about one minute late from signing Kurt Warner that same year. Thanks, Andy. And I believe you wrote him to a championship that year.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to assume it was.

[Jason Moore]

I wrote it to a championship game.

[Mike Wright]

Because that was the year he was. That was his best year in Arizona. Over 4,500 yards, 30 touchdowns. By far the best year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, and he was the hometown guy, so it was just an extra bonus.

[Mike Wright]

Bonus.

[Jason Moore]

All right, find us on Twitter at the ffballers, the websites thefantasyfootballers.com it's where you can submit questions for the mailbag segment of the show. You can also find us on YouTube. We are on Patreon jointhefoot.com our community and instagram.com fantasy footballer. So we're gonna get right into it. We're recording this show a little bit early. Brooks will be back for our next episode. We are completely live.

[Andy Holloway]

We're not even right now. We're not even aware of that crazy Odell Beckham trade that went down.

[Jason Moore]

We're not even aware those incredible signings.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not going anywhere.

[Jason Moore]

And that. Yeah, we're just skipping the news today.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, there's too many quarterbacks to disparage. Yes, let's get.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we're getting into all of them, so let's just. Let's move on. Quarterbacks draft one late. All right, that is it for today's episode.

[Andy Holloway]

It's not the quarterbacks themselves that need to be disparaged. In fact, it's because there are so many great, unbelievably good quarterbacks for fantasy football that it's the position that needs to be disparaged. I love this quick question today, Brooks, because it illustrates, like, waiver wire, late round, and you ride these guys to victory for your entire year. And there was no shortage of options from us to pick for just the last several years. So, I mean, today we'll cover them. But there are so many options. Late. I was thinking about it today. I was looking from the bottom up, starting at quarterback 31, because there's pretty much right now only 31 starters. Sorry, A.J. mcCarron. And it was like, okay, there's a couple guys that I think are going to be really bad. But then I start getting to like, okay, Case Keenum. I think he could be absolutely fine. He's like my, I don't know, quarterback 26. I don't remember that low of a quarterback that I liked in recent years.

[Jason Moore]

So we're going to go through as Many as we can probably try not to talk too long on the top guys just because we know where they belong. So, speaking of which, Aaron Rodgers are consensus number one.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely. The Aaron Rodgers is an absolute touchdown stud. He was on pace again this year for 40 plus touchdowns. But the question is, I guess the biggest question for me is Jordy Nelson. He's gone. There was an absolute Vulcan mind meld between Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. But the past five years there's been 17 games without Jordy. Now if you average those out, he's about three points. Aaron Rodgers is about three points worse per game. Still averaging, you know, 23 fantasy points a game. Perfectly fine. I will say in 2015, that was the Jordy Nelson where he missed, you know, the whole year and he struggled. He struggled. That second half of the season, he was only averaging two touchdowns a game, which for most quarterbacks, that's fantastic. But that's not Aaron Rodgers. That's not what you expect. But that was the year there was no number one on the team. Devonte Adams had not grown into his role. He had not broken out. That was the year when Richard Rodgers tied for the league or the team lead with eight touchdowns. So I'm not worried. Aaron Rodgers is my, by far, my number one guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think that by far is right because even though they lost Jordy, Devonte Adams is, I think, capable of being a number one. Now you have Randall Cobb, you have Jimmy on Jimmy Graham. But to me, the difference between Aaron Rodgers and the next three guys is monumental. It's massive. I mean, over the last, since 2011, Aaron Rodgers, if he's playing, you know, healthy, he's one of, if not the best quarterback in fantasy every year.

[Jason Moore]

Do you believe that there will be a mad scramble for some undrafted pass catcher from Green Bay at some point this season?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, if Jerome Allison comes out week one and looks like he's super involved, I mean, there's going to be someone surprisingly involved.

[Jason Moore]

His 8, 8 year average, which is a nice track record, 4,200 plus passing yards, 35 passing TDs on average per year. Locked and loaded. All right, number two, Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson was, he was by far the number one.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Quarterback last year and doesn't get talked about enough for whatever reason, probably because watching that team at times was painful. And we've talked about it before. Russell Wilson going deep so often. But that led to a lot of opportunities. 3,983 yards, 34 touchdowns, just 11 interceptions, but also rushed for 586 yards and three touchdowns. That's why he was so, so high above at number one.

[Mike Wright]

You know what I think happened to Russell Wilson? We talk about this a lot on the show, the brand. And I'm talking like you have an iron brand just melting your skin off those first couple games. That's who you were. That's what fantasy players remember. They're not off the top of the head going, oh yeah, Russell Wilson in standard leagues was about 50 points better than the quarterback too. But the first two weeks of the season he stunk. Quarterback 24, quarterback 14.

[Jason Moore]

And made that brand on your. Yeah, on your mind.

[Mike Wright]

Right, right on the chest of those who drafted him and spent high draft capital and probably a lot of people dropped him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you're exactly right. The problem with Russell Wilson and why we don't view him as high, you know, coming off of the number one year, it's an emotional thing because you had those first two weeks which were two of his only. He only had five down weeks the whole season. But two of the of the other three bad weeks were in championship weeks in the playoffs. They were week 15 and 16. So he let you down right at the get go after you drafted him. And then they let you down after getting you to the championship or to that semifinal matchup. So there's a lot of bad emotions. And then you have to deal with the fact that Paul Richardson gone, Jimmy Graham gone. The team itself looks worse. Which I think that could work.

[Mike Wright]

The team's gone, gone.

[Andy Holloway]

They supersonic and got out of there. Sorry, Seattle.

[Jason Moore]

Wow, Sean Kemp is shaking his head at you. Look, I think Wilson's immune to the losses. I really do totally agree. I don't think because you have the foundation of rushing yardage because I don't think Paul Richardson was. I mean you could substitute him in for somebody else. It's like the Steve Nash effect back in, in the NBA. Like Wilson made Richardson, Richardson didn't make Wilson. And it'll be interesting. This is not uncharted territory for him to finish in that top three. I mean 2015, third best, 2014, third best.

[Andy Holloway]

So he's never not been a quarterback one his entire career.

[Mike Wright]

Four of the last five seasons, 500 plus rushing yards. You just had two years ago when he had the major ankle injuries. It seemed like every week stifled that he was getting hurt. So he was down at 259 rushing yards, but other than that over 500. And if your quarterback is going to rush for over 500 yards because of how things are scored, whether you like.

[Andy Holloway]

It or not, Jason, I'm on the.

[Mike Wright]

Knot and I lean that way as well. But that's how we score things right now. So he's very, very valuable.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's go to the number three, the TB12 method. Tom Brady himself.

[Mike Wright]

Plant based.

[Jason Moore]

Plant based. Tom Brady. Oh, Plant man delivering the goods. 4,500 yards, 32 touchdowns, eight interceptions. No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, no, I was going. Plant man knows that the plants will grow, man. Oh, that's an old reference and I'm sure there's no way you guys know that one.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, but that's what Twitter's for, Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

Plant man knows that the plants will grow.

[Mike Wright]

No, we do not.

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks, Brooks, Brooks.

[Jason Moore]

Shaking your head no. Giamatti doesn't even know.

[Mike Wright]

I don't, I don't expect you because this is, this is going super deep.

[Jason Moore]

Because there's something my dad used to.

[Mike Wright]

Say to me every night. This was a reference from Beavis and Butthead.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Plant man.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Tom Brady. We both, all three of us have him at number three. Consistency, rank at number seven. Last year, look, it was somewhat of a strange year where at times, because of losing Edelman, because of the ups and downs during the season, you maybe felt differently about how he performed, but he ended at number three. What can you complain about?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's really hard. And he's getting more weapons back healthy.

[Mike Wright]

He lost his number one weapon from last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he lost Brandon Cooks. I mean, to me, the outside threat of Brandon Cooks can be filled with Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, while the slot underneath work that he has always thrived. You've got Julian Edelman. You have so many guys to compete, we don't even know who's going to make the roster. They just gave the one year deal to Jordan Matthews. I still think could make some noise there. You've got Gronk. I mean, he has plenty of weapons to use. You haven't seen him slow down. You have to. I mean, I don't know how you can rank him much lower than this anyways just because he gets the job done. And you. Look, he's only had two of the last 10 years where he's basically not a top 10 quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Is there a part of you who we're going to move on to? Our number four, by the way, I.

[Mike Wright]

Have a couple of things I just wanted to throw out for Tom Brady real quick is I'm with Jason. I want to, I want to rank him lower, but he just ends up there and this past year when he finished as the quarterback three, he was only better than the quarterback seven, three times on per a weekly basis. But he just, he can put up massive games. And I thought, okay, well what happens if Brandon Cooks is gone? He doesn't have the speed. And I went back to 2010, he was the quarterback three. He didn't have a single receiver over a hit 150 yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's like he's one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

[Mike Wright]

And that's what I'm saying.

[Jason Moore]

Where I vegetables.

[Mike Wright]

I want man, I want him to be the plant man. I want to rank him lower than quarterback 3. It just can't happen.

[Jason Moore]

Well, let's talk about the differences between him and our number four. And our number four is Cam Newton. Big bounce back year last year ended up number two according to our scoring system and 16 games, just 3,300 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 16 picks. So that by itself you're like, hey, you're down in the 20s. And then he ran for 754 yards, six rushing touchdowns. And that's why he's Cam Newton. And this is what he's done. I mean he's had top four performances in four of his six years and he was Cam again last year. And the question that I have is, you know, preferentially, let's say you end up with Tom Brady or Cam Newton. You got that heads up choice, Cam Newton. Higher percentage of great games. Okay, so weak winning type of monstrous performances. Brady a little more consistent. 7th best, 7th most consistent compared to Cam Newton at 10. What do you prefer in your quarterback? Tommy Touchdown or Cam Newton who has that foundational rushing attack and then you get Greg Olson back, hopefully healthy this year.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean if they cost the same, I think I would rather have Brady a little bit more consistency because Brady's still, you know, you say not in the top seven a certain amount, but he's, you know, almost always a quarterback one. He's very solid. He's not, you know, letting your team down on a weekly basis. I would rather have the consistent he.

[Mike Wright]

Did in the playoffs, but yes, he.

[Andy Holloway]

Did a couple years in a row. I think in week 16. The issue is that Tom Brady will cost more. You know, Tom Brady will be really.

[Mike Wright]

You think, you think Brady will go higher in drafts this year?

[Andy Holloway]

I do, just because of the name. And maybe people will be back on.

[Mike Wright]

Super Cam was the quarterback too.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. Maybe people will be back on Cam Newton with the bounce back year. If they did cost the same, I'd.

[Jason Moore]

Rather go Brady right now based on ADP data, which is limited, but from the past week at fantasy football calculator.com Brady's going in the back of the fourth, whereas Cam is going in the middle of the sixth.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So in that scenario, I would much rather have Cam.

[Jason Moore]

It's basically Rogers, Bray, Rogers, Wilson, Brady.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So so far, the same top four, which again, I won't have a single one of these guys on my roster. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And just jumping off the page for Cam Newton is the bus percentage at 44%. So, I mean, yes, that's the other.

[Jason Moore]

Side of the finishes.

[Mike Wright]

The quarterback, too, on the season. But nearly 50% of the time you went, what the heck, Cam.

[Andy Holloway]

A complete bust really let you down. There are three guys that really did that a lot this past year. They all three had 44%. Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins, and I'll wait on the third.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah, yeah. Going to get into that.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll get to them.

[Jason Moore]

All right. So finally. But we're not all yes men here. We do not all agree. And we finally are getting to the quarterbacks here where we have some disagreement. Number five, Kirk Cousins is actually our consensus. Number five. To me, that's wild. I'm really surprised. It should be the next guy on this list.

[Andy Holloway]

No way.

[Jason Moore]

But Jason, the next guy, Jason caused major issues. Kirk Cousins, Wow. I cannot wait. Let's just skip him. No, Kirk Cousins, I have him at nine. Jason has him at six. Mike has him at five. Jason's six ranking is unbelievable.

[Mike Wright]

Well, we got to stay with Kirk Cousins.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I'm talking about.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

He has him at 6. The guy that he's disparaged all off season. That's my whole point.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, oh, I got you.

[Jason Moore]

He last year was the 15th most consistent quarterback goes to Minnesota, equipped with all of the, you know, he's got the full holster, maybe he's got double holsters. He's got the ammo bag on. I mean, he is ready to rumble.

[Andy Holloway]

Those are the reasons I've got him at 6. When I disparaged him this off season, it was more so a matter of I don't think he is necessarily worth the money. I think he'll be a little bit overhyped wherever he goes. But he did end up going to the best case scenario. The best weapons, best offensive line, best run game, best defense. Now, the defense, I think, hurts a little bit from a fantasy perspective. Because you, you know, I brought up this point earlier in the off season. You saw the games where Case Keenum they won and his passing attempts were just not even high enough to be fantasy relevant for that week. And you're going to have some of those from Kirk Cousins. They're not going to want him to go out and throw the ball 35 times. If they're winning the game and beating down their opponent, why would they? They're not focused on your fantasy points. That's, I think, going to be the issue that we run into this year with Kirk Cousins. Andy, you've got him at 9, so I'm assuming you see more of that side of it. What is the side that you think will let people down on Captain Kirk?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I don't think it's liking other players more. That's all it is. I mean, you have to make a decision between these guys. I think Cousins will have a fine season. I don't think it'd be forced. I think it's what you said. He won't be forced into those situations where maybe he has to air it out as often. Maybe there's a game or two here or there where he. It's a one touchdown game and they get it done. I just like other players more. One of them being number six on our list. Drew Brees. I've got him at five. Mike has him at six. Jason, you got him at 11. And for some reason you've been filled with a venom against Drew Brees this morning in the office. I don't know why. I'd love to hear the arguments. You seem to have them. Top 10 quarterback every year since 2008. Last year, quarterback nine. Just 23 touchdowns, 4,300 yards, 0 quote great games. Jason, why are you so down on Drew Brees? Why are you letting him push that QB1 envelope here and almost drip into the QB2 range?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I am down on Drew Brees from a fantasy perspective. He didn't show me anything that said that he lost his arm strength or his ability a lot. Old Peyton Manning, you know, and obviously the yardage was good as a touchdown issue, which I'm sure people are saying, oh, if the touchdowns come back, he'll be great. But here's my issue with Drew Brees and it's. It's a major one that the style of Drew Brees that he has been the last decade is no longer needed and wasn't used. This is a team that does not look like the hapless Saints of the last five years or so. They are a defense. First great running game. They're going to score a lot of touchdowns on the on the ground score some touchdowns with their defense. And if you look at what happened last year, so last season, right, you've got Drew Brees who finishes as a top 10 quarterback. So everyone's happy with Drew Brees, right? You drafted him, you got a top 10 quarterback. You were freaking murdered by Drew Brees. If you played him last, last year, I mean, you, you didn't even make the playoffs. You didn't come close to making the playoffs. You know how many times Drew Brees actually finished as a top 12, meaning a quarterback? One. Last year? Four times. Four. Kirk Deshaun Kaiser did it seven times. He was not helping you win games. He was losing for you. But he was never so, so, so bad. You know, he didn't go out there and put up five points to where his end of season rank was terrible. Can he bounce back? Absolutely. He's a Hall of Famer. He's great. But I think that this is the Drew Brees we're going to see is, you know, a manage the game, be smart, be accurate, set up a great run game. So those are my arguments.

[Jason Moore]

I understand some of that. But I think that if we were ranking him based off of last year's performance, you'd get it right. But we're projecting towards next year. And the way I look at it is I think Drew Brees had arguably his greatest NFL season ever last year, broke the accuracy record in the NFL. And you know what? He did it on the league Leading yards per attempt number. You talk about manage the game. Drew Brees, he wasn't. He was the most yards per attempt. He's never done that in his career. And yet his yards per attempt were that high. I don't view them as a defense first team. I looked at them as a balanced team. And, and I simply think that the touchdown number is going to swing back to the mean, which is all you need from Drew Brees next year to get what you want in fantasy. Now, the value wise, I thought maybe that season that you're describing, the painful branding of sadness that he did last year, I thought that would drive him down the draft board. So I don't think I'm going to have him because he's still going in that fifth range. He's going ahead of Cam Newton. So I don't think I'm going to have Drew Brees. I do think that, you know what you said in the beginning, no decrease in skill set, every ability to lead that offense and arguably the best NFL season I've ever seen him have in.

[Mike Wright]

From 2014 to 2016, the New Orleans Saints rushing touchdown to passing touchdown ratio was 2 to 1 in favor of passing touchdowns. And all of a sudden last year it swings to a one to one ratio where they are equal in passing touchdowns and equal in rushing touchdowns. I just, I don't think Drew Brees is done. He threw for over 4,300 yards. That's not a game manager. That's a guy who's winning the games and just didn't happen to have the touchdown luck. His touchdown rate went from 5.5.1, five and a half down to 4.3. That thing's going to jump back up into the fives in my opinion, which makes Drew Brees a fantastic quarterback. The previous three years before last year he led the league in passing. I don't buy the narrative that it's a run and defense only team.

[Jason Moore]

Let me ask you something, Jay. If Drew Brees was 31 years old and had the season he had last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Does it change the way you view the next season?

[Andy Holloway]

It really, really does. The fact that he is 39 years old. They have managed this team from a roster construction standpoint to help him, you know, and develop this team away from his strengths. I mean, they're not going out and getting another super high profile wide receiver. That's, you know, they didn't go and try to make a run at someone there. They did try to make a run at Ndomic and Sue and spend their money.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

On big piece, you know, defensive guys, they're going out and making offers for Cameron Meredith, you know that. That's what they're trying to do.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And look, at the end of the day, he has to prove himself in the positive direction after what he did last year. So to Jason's point, if he gives you what he gave you last year, you're not going to be happy. All right. Before we move on, that is the kind of player debate you're going to get in the Ultimate Draft kit. Ultimate Draft Kit.com youm can pre order it now comes out on June 1st. We'll have rookie rankings in there ahead of time. And the beauty of the Ultimate Draft Kit is it equips you for your draft and it's updated all off season long. There are going to be over a hundred player profile videos where we. And we update these as well. We update the videos where we profile individual players. Maybe you have a tough decision to make between a couple guys. Maybe you have a keeper decision that you have to make before the draft we help you with the video profiles. We have all of our rankings, the top 200 list, player by player, blurbs and analysis. Matt Harmon's back with reception perception content. And if you're not aware, maybe you have heard us talk about it, you haven't checked it out@ultimate draftkit.com Pre order pricing is 24.99. That's the price. And you get all the tiers, all the cheat sheets, all the breakdowns, all the projections, all the auction values, consistency charts. It is jam packed. This is our. What did you call it? The magnum opus.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

It's our baby, too. This is what we care for and.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And we listen to your feedback. We survey every single purchaser at the end of every season to get your feedback about how to improve, how to make it faster, how to make it better. This is the way you dominate your draft. It's plain and simple. The UDK is what it is. The UDK Ultimate Draft kit dot com.

[Mike Wright]

We want to thank Pristine Auction for sponsoring today's show. This is the place you need to go for all your sports memorabilia. All of our signed jerseys always come from Pristine Auction. Who's on the wall today? Brooks? We got AJ Green. AJ Green signed jersey for prices that you cannot believe. Here's some things that have recently gone on. Pristine Auction assigned Stefan Diggs jersey, $55.

[Jason Moore]

55.

[Mike Wright]

Are you a fan of the Broncos? Are you a fan of Derrieres? Jake Butt jersey, $36.

[Jason Moore]

Fan of the Broncos and derrieres who's not.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait, how much?

[Mike Wright]

$36. Assigned it for the Broncos.

[Jason Moore]

I need one $55 item a day. Brooks. 55.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, for real? And if you're a really true Broncos fan. Demarys Thomas signed NFL football, $78. There's. There's tons of deals. They have new things every single day. Hundreds of daily auctions.

[Jason Moore]

Check it out.

[Mike Wright]

Pristineauction.com make a completely free account and let them know that the fantasy footballers sent you.

[Jason Moore]

Every time we go out to a restaurant as a company and it's someplace we've been before, Brooks always gets the same thing that he got the time before, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

He finds something.

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks, that's what he gets.

[Mike Wright]

He's a man of routine.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You find something you like and there's nothing wrong with it, Right? I mean, that's just your personality. That's all true. Yeah. I mean, you find something you like, you get it every time. I don't take the risk. The next guy on this list is. You would never order him Brooks.

[Andy Holloway]

Nah.

[Jason Moore]

Deshaun Watson tied for seventh on our consensus quarterback rankings. And to me, he's trying something new in the landscape of quarterbacks. Oh, yeah, he is flipping that menu over to that. Oh, chef's favorite. I've never seen this before, and we've never seen what happened last year.

[Andy Holloway]

The problem is, I fear that it comes with that market price tag. Oh, when you get the menu and you look and it says, how much is it? Oh, this is market.

[Jason Moore]

That's when you get the fish.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Always at the market price.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

How much is in your wallet?

[Andy Holloway]

You know, I've seen Deshaun Watson in drafts. His range is unbelievable. But if you actually go to some of the higher end, like, you know, some of the sites where the big money entries and you play those. Those level of best ball. The ADP on Deshaun Watson has him oftentimes as the third quarterback off the board.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Because people are chasing the.

[Jason Moore]

In redraft. In redraft. He's fourth right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. The unfathomable production he was having. He wasn't. You know, it's like, okay, it's the Michael Vick effect. There's a lot of Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, two great quarterbacks, both got injured, both coming back. But you can't really compare what Deshaun Watson was doing to what Carson Wentz was doing. You can't compare what Deshaun Watson was doing to what anyone was doing.

[Jason Moore]

He was going full space jam.

[Mike Wright]

You cannot compare what desean Watson was doing to the year that Peyton Manning threw 55 touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

How many?

[Mike Wright]

55. Oh, it's nonstop today. That one was completely unintentional, too.

[Jason Moore]

Guess what Greg Olson's current ADP is right now, by the way. Oh, come on.

[Mike Wright]

But that season, the season that Manning had 55 touchdowns. Got to control myself. And that was an 8.3 touchdown percentage. Deshaun Watson, 9.3. Almost one out of every 10 passes was going for a touchdown. You got to control yourself.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

That's impossible. Okay, fine. If you even. Even the most. The hardiest of desean Watson truthers have to admit, that's impossible. But what can he actually do when we're out of the realm of the stratosphere and castles on clouds, where can he possibly go?

[Jason Moore]

Here's what we do know. He can win you a week by himself. Maybe you make the argument that the consistency at that production level is impossible, but he at least showed us that he has the capability of blowing you away on the field for one game. At a time to being one of those type. Maybe that's how it goes this year. But I cannot imagine if he's healthy, you're not going to get a handful of games where he puts together that kind of efficiency.

[Mike Wright]

Cam Newton, Cam Newton will give you huge monster games. The I did, I took a look back the past five years there, there have been five times when a quarterback played all 16 games and finished with a touchdown rate of over 7% the following year. But with those five quarterbacks, that's Peyton Manning, Rogers, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson, there was an average drop in their touchdown percent of 2.7. So now you take 2.7 away from nine, you're still, still very, very happy. But my point is when these quarterbacks, and these are elite level quarterbacks, maybe you don't want Matt Ryan in there. Whatever. When they've had the monster season, there is always a fall from grace and you just, you regress to the, to your average because that's just what happens.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I completely agree. If desean Watson comes out next year and is pretty much a middle of the pack quarterback, not going to be surprised. So you might be asking yourself, well, with all those things said, why would, why is he tied for seven in our consistency rankings? And the reason is because you have to take a shot, you have to swing for the fences to see if he is, you know, I tried to just, just, you know, I was anti desean Watson throughout so many weeks last year. Like it's not going to keep happening. It's impossible to keep happening. But he plays with a chip on his shoulder. He's done it his entire career. He did it at Clemson where he has great weapons. Every time. Yeah. And every time that, you know, people count him out, if you count them out from this injury, I just don't want to be on that, on that side anymore. Where you go, maybe desean Watson is just truly a, you know, he's what he's been his entire career in college and in.

[Jason Moore]

Wasn't Dabo Sweeney the Clemson head coach? Didn't he call him Michael Jordan?

[Mike Wright]

He did.

[Jason Moore]

You pass on him. You're passing on Michael Jordan at least seven games in. He's dead. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

He's the type of quarterback where it's like I plan usually when I draft a quarterback late, I know I'm going to drop him. I don't ever fear dropping a quarterback. But with Deshaun Watson, if he were to hit, yeah, great. But if not, just drop.

[Jason Moore]

And yeah, except for you have to pay Too much. That's true. Andrew Luck comes in at number seven. And guys, this is the human game of Jenga right here. I don't know what to do with Andrew Luck, but I feel like it is. I feel like you're. You got to be afraid.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I just read on Deadspin that he has not thrown a real football yet. He's only thrown a small football.

[Andy Holloway]

He hasn't thrown the Duke yet.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the Duke is the name of the NFL game ball.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what he.

[Mike Wright]

But my Duke is very different.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Best joke ever.

[Mike Wright]

Andy couldn't handle that one.

[Jason Moore]

I have met 11 and that is with a fear of the unknown here. Jason at 5, Mike at 8.

[Andy Holloway]

Your.

[Jason Moore]

Duke is John Wayne. Yeah, I know what you're talking about.

[Andy Holloway]

This is health. This really is. I have statted him. The reason that he is up this high at 7 is because I have him at 5. And I have statted him out at 5 with health because I know what I'm doing with Andrew Luck this year and it's a pretty straightforward thing. I'm watching preseason. If he's playing in preseason, then he's healthy and I will have him basically at 5. I know what Andrew Luck is. He's great. He's going to be.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, is there any fear of, let's say he's perfectly healthy, but you don't throw a football in two years.

[Andy Holloway]

I am not overly worried, especially given the price that he's going to, you know, he's going to have a huge discounted price. This is, again, those are the type of guys I'm going to take the swing on is the. If he is right, he's going to be great.

[Jason Moore]

He's going after golf right now with the uncertainty.

[Andy Holloway]

And so, you know, that's why I have him ranked 5. But if come preseason, which is still before everyone's, you know, normal keeper redraft league drafts, if he's not playing in preseason, he'll be 20 on my quarterback. I mean, he won't be even remotely draftable. That's two years of trying to get healthy. So I have chosen to give him the health.

[Jason Moore]

And Mike, you're in between and yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just hedging here at 8 because if he's played 15 games or more, he's a top 10 quarterback and you take out his rookie year and he's a top five quarterback. So if he plays, I'm expecting good things from him.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe they just convert him to running back. Based on what I've seen him do running the football. He's a big boy.

[Mike Wright]

Just take throwing out of the equation.

[Jason Moore]

Take it out. All right, let's go. I'm gonna give you the next three on this list because I actually, actually do want to talk about this next one.

[Mike Wright]

Man. Jason's ranking of the next guy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Carson Wentz, I have him at 6, Mike 7. Jason's got him at 12.

[Mike Wright]

Get bodied.

[Jason Moore]

I know, I know, I know the argument that Jason has, which is that, you know, somehow he'll be less aggressive. Carson Wentz has come out and said.

[Mike Wright]

He had the exact same. I guess his is slightly worse than DeSean Watson, but Jason, I mean, he's.

[Jason Moore]

Just a great passer. I mean, that's Carson Wentz. If you were talking about a player that leaned on, you know, rushing yardage to accomplish what he did last year, that wasn't the case. 3,200 yards, 33 passing touchdowns. I still think that, you know, their head coach, Doug Peterson came out and said that they're optimistic. They're hoping that Carson Wentz will be smarter about using his legs, putting himself in difficult positions. I'm leaning on the arm in the film that I see from the arm and, and the weapons and the offensive line. And so I've got him at six, Mike seven. I finished last year as the QB five despite missing three games. So, Jason, you've got him down at the 12 range.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I've got him down at 12. My last quarterback one. And, you know, it's interesting, we're going back to. Back to back injured quarterbacks here with looking at, you know, Andrew Luck and why would I rank him high?

[Jason Moore]

Watson Luck wins.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. Winston. But the issue here is due to the time of year that Wins got injured, you're not going to see Wins playing a lot of these games. You're not going to know when you need to know. I don't believe about his health. And yeah, he only had. I mean, he still had 300 rushing yards, which is. That matters quite a bit for a quarterback. A lot of his fantasy production came from that, but it was more than that. It's his scrambling ability, his ability to get outside the pocket on scripted or unscripted runs. To be able to do that. It was a massive injury and it was super late in the year. I think Carson Wentz's future is bright, but I really do worry about how that injury will affect his style of play. I mean, I've still got him as a quarterback one. So I'm not sitting here going, oh, Carson's done He's going to have a terrible year, but I think he's going to lose quite a bit off of that magical season we saw last year. And in addition to that, Mike, you brought this up already. The touchdown rate. He was over 7.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

An average. You know, losing 2% off of that, it's going to. It's going to hurt.

[Jason Moore]

Frank Reich came out the new head coach of the Colts. He said when they warned him last year about protecting himself, it went out of one. It went in one ear, out the other, and that he basically kind of said, no, I'm not backing off. This is how I'm going to play. I think even if the argument is made that he's healthy 100% and returns to that form, you have a higher injury risk with a player like Carson Wentz, if he's willing to do that to his body, than you do some other quarterbacks.

[Andy Holloway]

Certainly.

[Jason Moore]

Matthew Stafford and Philip Rivers are tied for 10th on a consensus early quarterback rankings. Jason, you've got Stafford the highest at seventh. Mike, 11. I've got him at 16. Rivers, I have at 15. You guys have been nine and 10. So I'm the lowest on these two players.

[Andy Holloway]

Stafford at 16.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's a little low. Get body. That's a little low. And again, it's. It's tough because you have players all.

[Andy Holloway]

These guys we love.

[Jason Moore]

Well, yeah, I mean, I like Jameis Winston this year. I like the upside of Winston. When I look at Stafford, I kind of know what I'm gonna get from.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And it's like 4,000 to 4,400 yards and probably like 25 to 30 touchdowns. I don't have any problem.

[Mike Wright]

If it was 30, I'd be. If you're telling me staffer is going to get 30. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, last year was 29 and he got. He was QB7, so.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah. Well, he. You know, I'm banking on lucky number sevens. You know, he's two years in a row at number seven.

[Jason Moore]

He was number seven back in 2013, and he's been a top 10 guy for three straight years, so he's very safe. I think Matthew Zephyr's super safe.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And, you know, you. You have the smooth routes. Kenny G. Can we have the breakout?

[Jason Moore]

So I think we've played this song more than the fantasy points you scored last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. But you. You've got another season with him. Marvin Jones, no more. Eric Ebron is back. Eric Ebron.

[Mike Wright]

They actually have. They have a goal line back now with Legara Blunt and they haven't had a goal line back, a true goal line back in a long time. Do you think that. Are you going to factor that as a negative impact?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean it should be. I don't know if their offensive line will allow it to be. I mean they, you know, I'm not worried about every time they tried short yardage, anything with anyone.

[Jason Moore]

He had many seasons with Joy can Joy could handle himself down there. I'm not too concerned about that hurting him. He didn't have any rushing touchdowns last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I just. An interesting aside because we had talked about rushing numbers for quarterbacks and what that does their points. Matt Stafford was the quarterback seven two years in a row. However, in 2016 he had 100 fewer passing yards and five fewer passing touchdowns. Yet he had 100 more rushing yards and two more rushing touchdowns in 2016.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Wait.

[Mike Wright]

Actually not. Hold on now I'm confusing myself. Move on.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll come back to you.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Philip Rivers.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, I was right. 2016, he had those rushing says. Basically my point was he was a far better passer this past year but he had a little bit of rushing production two years ago and somehow had more points.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, so I mean I just see him as very safe, a late round guy that if I draft him I don't have to worry, I don't have to think about getting a second quarterback yet. Just going to ride him into the season and hopefully he has sunset. Yeah. And hopefully he has a top five season again.

[Mike Wright]

I just don't see top five anywhere in the realm of possibilities once in his career.

[Jason Moore]

Right. 2011, that's a long, long time ago.

[Andy Holloway]

It was a.

[Jason Moore]

One of the reasons I have Rivers a little lower than you guys is because of the, I believe the range of outcomes he provides to fantasy owners. That's fine. I like him as a value quarterback, don't get me wrong. Like he's a great late round value but he's had finishes at or beyond the back of the QB1, QB2 range for the last six years. Last year is eighth. I like the roster, I like the player. I think he's going to be able to get by with 25 touchdowns on this roster. However, with a defense that's improving, I just kind of. He's just kind of okay for me. I like the higher upside guys more than I like Rivers.

[Mike Wright]

That's how I feel about Stafford.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just I see these guys as nearly identical to me.

[Jason Moore]

Like Brooks would order both on the menu. Let's put it that way.

[Mike Wright]

They're a good club sandwich.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, there's no problem.

[Mike Wright]

It's fine.

[Jason Moore]

It's fine.

[Mike Wright]

I have him higher than Stafford because he's a little bit more consistent for this tier of quarterback. The reemergence of Keenan Allen, he did. He got the interceptions under control last year. They're improving the offensive line. So I still like Rivers as a right around that top 10 type of a guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, I. The reason that I like Rivers a lot this year is the weapons. I think Melvin Gordon out of the backfield having Keenan Allen. I believe that Hunter Henry is far better in the pass catching role than Antonio Gates last year. In which case that's an improvement. Then you get Mike Williams could be a great, you know, wide receiver stepping in. You've still got Tyrell Williams.

[Jason Moore]

I do like Williams.

[Andy Holloway]

So I mean to me, if you compare the weapons here between Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford, the check marks got to go to Philip Rivers.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think that's fair. I was kind of curious to see how he performed first half to second half last year.

[Andy Holloway]

He was.

[Jason Moore]

And he was much better in the second half.

[Mike Wright]

That was the Keenan Allen explosion.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I mean he was. We're talking you cut his season in half, right. You go from a 4,000 yard pace to a 5,000 yard pace. You go from 26 touchdowns to a 30 touchdown pace. Just a very impressive second half. So there's a lot of reasons to kind of like their trajectory heading into the year. One guy I really like, Jameis Winston. We have him at 12 on our consensus rankings. Maybe that's the biggest surprise. He's out ahead of Big Ben, Matt Ryan, some of those guys biggest surprise.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that just both you and I, Andy, have him ranked higher than Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that is surprising. Mike's got him at 15. Probably trying to not jinx himself here like last year, possibly. But 3519 wasn't impressive last season. So we're really banking on a bounce back performance. A guy who's never finished as a.

[Mike Wright]

QB one you're banking on the final five games of the season where through those five games, literally the overall quarterback one was Jameis Winston. He had a massive jump. He had that shoulder injury. Do not forget that. He was also playing very poor in the first half. First eight games only 10 touchdowns. Final five games nine touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

He stood 5069 yard pace.

[Mike Wright]

He still had the five interceptions over the final five games. So I'm growing concerned with Jameis that the, the, the step into elite quarterback that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers thought they drafted I'm concerned that that's not going to happen and Jamis is all always just going to be okay.

[Jason Moore]

Would you rather have Matthew Stafford, who we just talked about, Are we talking.

[Mike Wright]

Fantasy or real life?

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no. In fantasy. In the 10th round, would you rather have Jameis in the 11th round? Like, if those guys are pretty much in the same spot, heads up. You take Stafford over.

[Mike Wright]

I would take Stafford, man, I probably would. But it's just the thought process.

[Jason Moore]

You could take Winston and wait and see the first couple weeks and see.

[Mike Wright]

The replaceability of quarterback. Just take wins. Like I said, quarterback one final five games, that was not Matt Stafford. So at that point in the draft, I might just go for it.

[Andy Holloway]

Go ceiling.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Knowing that I can just stream if I have to.

[Jason Moore]

All right, give me something about these next three guys and then we'll hit the mailbag. Big Ben at 13, Jimmy G at 14.

[Andy Holloway]

He's so handsome.

[Jason Moore]

So handsome. And number 15, Matt Ryan. I don't know if last year we would have expected to be ranking Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of Matt ryan heading into 2018, but that's the way it landed. He was the QB9, by the way. Jimmy G. Through weeks 13 through 17.

[Andy Holloway]

Of all of our individual rankings, the only guy here who has a top 10 ranking from one of us is Matt Ryan. Andy, you have him up at 8. So I assume you are seeing some regression to the mean, some bounce back for Matt Ryan off of his atrocious touchdown rate this last year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, the touchdown rate was ridiculous. He only had 20 touchdowns. Still over 4,000 yards, still has elite weapons on the roster.

[Andy Holloway]

You are Touchdown Jones.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's amazing. Julio Jones scored a touchdown in two games. Two out of 16 games, the best, one of the best weapons in football scored. So, yes, the Steven Sarkeesian effect was troublesome. And this did not get better over the second half of the year. So you're not really banking on, oh, I learned the system a little better in the second half. But look, this was a team that he's one year removed from the number two overall finish. I think he's a top 10 quarterback with those weapons that he has, passing the ball to the backfield to Freeman and to Coleman. And having Julio Jones is enough for me to buy into Matt Ryan over a guy like Jimmy Garoppolo over a guy like Big Ben. But hey, if you, if you really hate Sark, I don't blame you for keeping Matt Ryan outside your top 12.

[Mike Wright]

The thing for Big Ben, it was a, it Was a really strange start to the year. He was very poor for fantasy. Things were not jiving with the offense and then the bye week hit after the bye week he was unbelievable. He was only out of the quarterback one range once over that time. I know I talked about Winston final five weeks, but this was since the Steelers bye week.

[Andy Holloway]

Bigger sample size was a 9.

[Mike Wright]

He was the number one quarterback in points per game because he didn't play that final week. But it's. He was sensational that second half.

[Andy Holloway]

They figured it out.

[Mike Wright]

But with Todd Haley gone, there's some changes happening in Pittsburgh. Jason, how do you feel about Big Ben?

[Andy Holloway]

You know, I like Big Ben a lot, but I'm still. I realized this last year there wasn't the same home road split but he has a long enough career sample size where when I look at going into the NFL draft, I'm going to look at their opening schedule and as stupid as it sounds, I'm really. I care a lot about those first three weeks when I look at quarterback because I figured that's who I'm drafting the most. And so if it turns out that he starts with a home stretch, then sign me up for some Big Ben. He looked great last year. I think a star is born in juju. You've got Antonio Brown, great weapons there. Le'Veon Bell obviously gets it done. So I like Big Ben. I like. I mean, there's not a lot of these quarterbacks where I go. I'm hesitant to draft them. I mean, I think we've got to go probably all the way down. If there's a guy that I'm more hesitant to draft. We need to go down to my number 13, which is Arkansas 18 in Dak Prescott because he scares the heck out of me, man. I saw a quiet place and that thing didn't scare me nearly as much as Dak Prescott.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I love that movie.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean Dak Prescott. The more that I've watched DEZ Bryant film over the last week or so to try to figure out what is. What is DEZ like? Is. Was it him? Was. I'm like, dude, I've been watching a lot of college film for quarterbacks and Des Bryant film. And the one thing that kind of sticks out is I think last year Dak was less accurate than some of these incoming quarterbacks. And that's not a good.

[Jason Moore]

It's also what the. The knock on Dak was heading into the NFL. Yeah, we just saw him kind of thwart that in year one, 16 through 20. Jared Goff Mike, you've got him up here at 14. You're the highest. I've got Patrick, you can blame Patrick Mahomes at 17 on me. I've got him at 10. I've got Patrick Mahomes at 10 overall with that offense, those weapons and Andy.

[Andy Holloway]

Reid easily our most, our widest gap down at 22.

[Jason Moore]

Fair, I understand. I, you know, you have to take a, yeah, take. Somebody's going to be in that top 12. We're not expecting. I think it's Pat Mahomes, Dak Prescott at 18. Jason, you've got him the highest of the group. Marcus Mariota at 19 and then Andy Dalton at 20. Oh, Andy Dalton. You love 20, don't you? You love being around 20. All right, let's answer a few questions.

[Andy Holloway]

Mailbag. Mailbag, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Oh. Visit the website the Fancy Footballers.com, click the submit a question button or dial our voicemail hotline like this. Next caller did 302464tffb hey, footballers love the show.

[Andy Holloway]

This is Ian from Memphis. I have a question. In my league we have some slightly different rules.

[Jason Moore]

The one I'm talking about now is.

[Andy Holloway]

Tight ends and wide receivers share roster position. So how does that affect your lookout.

[Jason Moore]

On tight ends on draft day?

[Andy Holloway]

How does that affect top tier Gronkowski, Kelsey Ertz, and how does that affect the rest? Thanks, guys.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean part of the answer there is obviously if they share a roster spot and you're not backed into drafting a tight end.

[Mike Wright]

So we're talking a non. There are no dedicated tight end starting roster spots.

[Jason Moore]

Correct. And basically what that does is it really lowers the pool of tight ends that are going to be drafted. I mean Rog Gronkowski himself would have slotted in around the wide receiver 12 last year. 11:12, same as Brandon Cook's points per game. So Kelsey Ertz, Gronk, they're still going to be drafted, but they're pooled, you know, at this point with those other players. If you're not backed into starting a tight end, don't have to start a tight end. You're not looking to draft late round tight end for any reason?

[Andy Holloway]

No, certainly not. And you're not going to, you know, some of this will depend on scoring, you know, position in a standard league. Your tight ends like Gronk might be a little bit more valuable. You know, the third place tight end last year average 11.8 points a game in, you know, half point PPR, that wouldn't have even been a wide receiver one. So you're talking about very few guys you want to draft, and you want to draft them around the range where you're drafting. You know, if you're. If you're talking about the top three guys, you know, you're.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not drafting one.

[Andy Holloway]

You're not drafting any of them?

[Mike Wright]

No, not at all. Because someone's going to reach on Gronk.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, Gronk.

[Mike Wright]

Gronk is the only person I'm interested in. Even Kelsey Ertz? No, no, thank you. I'll just, I'll take Wiser just because.

[Jason Moore]

Of the cost, though. I mean, at some point you would draft Zach Ertz in a league.

[Andy Holloway]

Of course.

[Mike Wright]

If somehow Zach Ertz is there in the.

[Andy Holloway]

If you're drafting.

[Mike Wright]

This is pure points analysis.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, it's points analysis. If you're drafting around your. Your wide receiver. Like the wide receiver coming off the board is the 15th to 20th wide receiver in that range, and you've got a Kelsey or an Ertz there. That's where I would consider it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean that for perspective, as opposed to Gronk, who's up in that top 12 wide receiver rank. Ertz and Kelsey are back down in that. Just out. I mean, almost. Wide receiver two, three. Bubble.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Jimmy Graham changes everything.

[Mike Wright]

Jimmy Graham, the tight end. Four would have been right around wide receiver three.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Nelson Aguilar scored more points than Zach Ertz.

[Mike Wright]

No, thank you.

[Jason Moore]

You would take Aguilar, probably. All right, this. This comes from Jim in Columbia. Where's my listeners? Oh, sure, okay, sorry. Columbia, South Carolina.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, hello.

[Jason Moore]

Where's my listeners? W2 tried to file my taxes. Haven't received my fantasy footballers tax forms because this podcast is money. Totally helped me win my local league. Finished second in my money league. Y'all are the best. There's no question there. Brooks, were you just toot tooting for us? Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, thanks, Jim.

[Jason Moore]

And Brooks, he liked the analogy. All right, Joseph in Chino Hills, California, going into his age 30 season. Speaking of Antonio Brown, is this the off season, the time to move Antonio Brown and Dynasty? If so, what's the realistic return? Wide receiver is team priority. If Brown is moved, I, as a.

[Andy Holloway]

Resident, Antonio Brown, and you know, our main Dynasty league, I've got Antonio Brown. Here's what I would say. If you are a team that looks like you need to rebuild, if you aren't capable of winning a championship, this is a great time to move him. But if you're in the running, which I feel like if you've got Antonio Brown, that's a pretty darn good building block to build a team around. Then it's going to be difficult to get enough value. You're talking about a guy who's got several years left. But right now, this year will probably be the number one wide receiver. It's hard to win a championship while making your team worse. So are you able to play for this year or do you need to play for the future? That's the way I look at Antonio Brown.

[Jason Moore]

I think it's fair and I think it's. You got to remember every trade comes with an element of risk of who you're receiving back. There's no guarantees in fantasy football. So you go make that trade that you think looks great to get that younger receiver as to find digs and some picks or whatever you want to do. I'll tell you this, you're risking a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

I went and poked the Odell Beckham owner this last week with an Antonio Brown. Plus what for Odell Beckham to try to see what's the temperature because you got all the trade rumors, the possible video with narcotics. Is he going to hold out all these question marks? That kind of the quarterback situation, which I think will be fixed in the draft, but so maybe I thought maybe he'll be going, okay, I can make my team better here and I could pair like a CJ Anderson and a 2019 something and get Odell Beckham. I would do that but couldn't get it done.

[Jason Moore]

Scott in Boston, Massachusetts, will Josh Gordon outscore Jarvis Landry and will either of them outscore Larry Fitzgerald, PPR league?

[Mike Wright]

They will not outscore Larry and I would in a PPR league. I'm going to. I'm still going to go for Josh Gordon.

[Andy Holloway]

You'll go with Josh Gordon over Landry? Yeah, he's got the ceiling. I would go with the tried and true Jarvis Landry out of those two. But I agree neither of them will outscore Larry Fitzgerald on a ppr. And that's coming from the person who you guys have falsely made me out to be a Larry hater. Love Larry.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Why do you hate Larry? All right, the next two episodes, huge draft episodes. Do not miss them. Check out draft.comballers to play basketball with us. Make sure you subscribe on Apple podcasts. Thanks for listening. Goodbye.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers. This.