Fantasy Football 2018 - Early RB Rankings Part 1

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast Episode: Fantasy Football 2018 - Early RB Rankings Part 1
Release Date: April 3, 2018
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

---

Introduction

The episode kicks off with the hosts expressing their excitement for the upcoming fantasy football season. After a brief, humorous exchange and a light-hearted voicemail segment, the trio dives into the main topic: Early Running Back (RB) Rankings for the 2018 fantasy football season.

---

Early Running Back Rankings

[12:26] Main Segment Introduction

Mike Wright introduces the primary focus of the episode: debunking initial RB rankings and providing a detailed analysis of the top contenders for the 2018 fantasy football season.

---

1. Le'Veon Bell – Ranked #1

[13:59] Discussion Highlights:

• Consistency & Touch Volume: Le'Veon Bell is unanimously considered the top RB due to his high touch volume both on the ground and through the air. Last season, Bell had over 300 carries and was the only RB with over 100 targets.

  Andy Holloway states, "Le'Veon Bell had over 300 carries and more targets than Alvin Kamara. He is the number one running back." [14:20]

• Offensive Stability: With a proven track record and a stable offensive scheme, Bell's performance is deemed reliable.

  Jason Moore comments, "When he plays, he's great and always has been as soon as he became the guy." [14:20]

---

2. Todd Gurley – Ranked #2

[15:17] Discussion Highlights:

• Talent & Utilization: Gurley is recognized for his exceptional talent, though there's concern about a potential dip in receiving touchdowns from the previous season.

  Jason Moore notes, "I expect Todd Gurley's total touchdown number to come down this season." [17:16]

• Consistency Concerns: Despite his high performance, Gurley's touchdown volume may not sustain its peak from last season, factoring into his second-place ranking.

  Mike Wright adds, "He had a higher target market share than Duke Johnson, and this is Todd Gurley." [18:17]

---

3. David Johnson – Ranked #3

[19:00] Discussion Highlights:

• Versatility: David Johnson returns from an injury and is expected to regain his role as a dual-threat RB, contributing significantly both in rushing and receiving.

  Morgan states, "David Johnson will get the ball a ton." [20:41]

• Touchdown Potential: While high in volume, there's skepticism about Johnson's ability to replicate his previous year's touchdown performance.

  Jason Moore expresses, "I worry about his touchdowns." [20:34]

---

4. Ezekiel Elliott – Ranked #4

[23:15] Discussion Highlights:

• Performance & Perception: Elliott is lauded for his consistent performance despite criticisms regarding his physique.

  Jason Moore asserts, "Why would I draft David Johnson over... with all the question marks over Zeke?" [23:25]

• Offensive Role: Elliott's role in the offense remains pivotal, and his ability to break down defenses is emphasized as a key factor for his ranking.

  Morgan concurs, highlighting Elliott's importance in the offense. [No specific timestamp]

---

5. Kareem Hunt – Ranked #5

[27:58] Discussion Highlights:

• Touch Volume: Hunt is praised for his high touch volume, both rushing and receiving, making him a valuable asset in fantasy leagues.

  Mike Wright mentions, "Kareem Hunt was one of only six running backs that had more than 300 touches." [30:24]

• Risk Factors: Concerns include potential fluctuations in workload due to team dynamics and offensive strategies.

  Morgan warns, "Cream Hunt feels like a tear break to me." [28:25]

---

6. Melvin Gordon – Ranked #6

[32:27] Discussion Highlights:

• Consistency & Team Improvement: Gordon is expected to remain a top performer as the Chargers enhance their offensive line, providing him more opportunities for consistent production.

  Jason Moore states, "He's going to be a huge part of that [team's] improvement." [33:09]

• Efficiency Concerns: While Gordon has proven his ability to accumulate yards, there's debate over his efficiency and overall excitement factor compared to other RBs.

  Morgan comments, "Objective good production without the monstrous plays." [35:58]

---

7. Leonard Fournette – Ranked #7

[36:47] Discussion Highlights:

• High Carry Volume: Fournette is expected to see an increase in workload, potentially surpassing 300 carries if he remains healthy throughout the season.

  Morgan emphasizes, "He's going to be over 300 carries and he's going to get goal line and he'll have rushing touchdowns." [38:00]

• Injury Concerns: Fournette's history of leg injuries raises questions about his long-term durability and impact.

  Morgan expresses concern, "Consistently having lower body injuries." [37:08]

---

8. Alvin Kamara – Ranked #8

[40:02] Discussion Highlights:

• Upside & Volume Growth: Kamara's explosive performance last season positions him high, with expectations for increased usage in the Chargers' offense.

  Mike Wright states, "He's a special, special player." [41:41]

• Efficiency Doubts: There's skepticism about Kamara maintaining his extraordinary yards per touch, though his talent makes him a coveted pick.

  Jason Moore remarks, "He has to have a huge workload increase." [42:51]

---

9. Dalvin Cook – Ranked #9

[43:00] Discussion Highlights:

• Recovery from Injury: Cook's performance is contingent on a full recovery from last season's injury, with expectations of returning to his prior form.

  Jason Moore explains, "He should be ready to go full strength by week one." [44:30]

• Team Offensive Dynamics: Cook's success is tied to the overall offensive strength of the Chargers, including improved quarterback play and offensive line support.

  Morgan questions, "Is Dalvin Cook going to soak up everything?" [46:19]

---

10. LaShawn McCoy – Ranked #10

[46:47] Discussion Highlights:

• Age & Performance Decline: At 30 years old, McCoy faces the typical decline associated with aging, despite a strong performance last year.

  Jason Moore warns, "30 is usually that scary age for a running back." [47:38]

• Team Offense Concerns: Uncertainties about the Bills' offensive line and quarterback play add risk to McCoy's fantasy value.

  Morgan points out, "Coaching staff seems to want to force their agenda." [48:08]

---

Mailbag Segment

[49:44] Listener Questions:

1. Dynasty Team Picks:

   • Question: Valuing draft picks versus players in a dynasty league.
   • Response:
     Morgan advises, "The perceived value in these actual rookie drafts is much higher than that." [51:01]
     Jason Moore recommends sticking with tier-based drafts and capitalizing on overvalued players' mistakes.

2. Seahawks-Obsessed Leagues:

   • Question: Navigating leagues where Seahawks players are overvalued.
   • Response:
     Jason Moore suggests avoiding over-drafting Seahawks players and focusing on better value elsewhere.

3. Tight End Comparisons:

   • Question: Highest upside and safest floor tight ends among Trey Burton, George Kittle, and Luke Wilson.
   • Response:
     All hosts agree Trey Burton has both the highest upside and safest floor. [53:42]

4. Keeper Decision – Le'Veon Bell vs. Adam Thielen:

   • Question: Whether to keep Le'Veon Bell or Adam Thielen.
   • Response:
     Morgan and Jason Moore advocate for keeping Le'Veon Bell due to his consistent RB1 performance.

---

Conclusion

The hosts wrap up the episode by reiterating the importance of early RB rankings and hinting at deeper dives in subsequent episodes. They also promote their Ultimate Draft Kit and encourage listeners to engage with them on various social media platforms.

---

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Jason Moore on Le'Veon Bell:
  "Le'Veon Bell had over 300 carries and more targets than Alvin Kamara. He is the number one running back." [14:20]

• Jason Moore on Todd Gurley’s Touchdowns:
  "I expect Todd Gurley's total touchdown number to come down this season." [17:16]

• Morgan on David Johnson’s Volume:
  "David Johnson will get the ball a ton." [20:41]

• Mike Wright on Kareem Hunt’s Touch Volume:
  "Kareem Hunt was one of only six running backs that had more than 300 touches." [30:24]

• Morgan on Leonard Fournette’s Carries:
  "He's going to be over 300 carries and he's going to get goal line and he'll have rushing touchdowns." [38:00]

• Jason Moore on Alvin Kamara’s Workload:
  "He has to have a huge workload increase." [42:51]

---

Final Thoughts

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the top running backs entering the 2018 fantasy football season, blending statistical insights with strategic advice. The discussion balances optimism for high-performing players with caution regarding potential risks, offering valuable guidance for fantasy football enthusiasts as they prepare for their drafts.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

For the second time in my life, I'm guilty of committing a crime. Being horrifically ill prepared for my fantasy football draft. Cause I doubt my leaguemates. Minding my team finishing 3 and 10. Earning the ridicule of not just my friends and family, but of every man, woman and child I've ever encountered.

[Jason Moore]

I.

[Andy Holloway]

At this season, I find I'm so excited I can barely sit still. Don't hold a thought in my head. I think it's the excitement only a future Foot Clan champion can feel. A future champ at the start of a long journey whose conclusion is dispersing a wide range of insults upon my leaguemates. Things like, your, you're one pathetic loser or you must be a major disappointment to your parents or my personal favorite, you suck butt face. You know who's gonna be the Toilet bowl champion this year? Not me. Not me. To join me on this journey, head to www.ultimate draftkit.com. i hope to see you there.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome. Always really a treat, a privilege when Morgan stops by.

[Morgan]

Great friend of the show, Morgan.

[Mike Wright]

Morgan, always so busy and yet always available.

[Morgan]

Morgan endorsing. That's what he does.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Andy Holloway here joined by Mike the fantasy hitman. Right, that's me and Jason.

[Morgan]

The more I'll take it, Jason. Constantly more. Because there's constantly more.

[Mike Wright]

Always more.

[Jason Moore]

More than you need at a rapid rate.

[Mike Wright]

More than you need. More than you want. More, more of the time than you want it. Welcome into the show. We've got a great one. Look, this is the beginning of the ranking shows. We've got our early running back rankings on the, on the podcast today. So we have our consensus rankings. We'll see where we differ, what we think about these players, but we're going to debut them on the show today. 2018 is on the way. It is April 3rd already, so we are in draft month, as we like to say. And I'm excited.

[Morgan]

That's. That's what they like to say.

[Jason Moore]

That's just what Andy likes to say. This is what he likes.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Apparently Brooks has prepared for us a voicemail. Quick question, is that correct, Brooke?

[Morgan]

What?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Morgan]

First time ever.

[Mike Wright]

Well, let's just jump into it, ballers.

[Jason Moore]

It's Ty from Boston. I have a quick two part question for you. Does pizza is. Does pineapple belong on pizza? And either way, yes or no, who is a fantasy player? That's like pineapple on pizza.

[Mike Wright]

Better or for worse.

[Jason Moore]

Thanks.

[Mike Wright]

Well, thank you for that very thoughtful question.

[Jason Moore]

Deep.

[Mike Wright]

I think that we are masters of all things, that we are masters of food. Analogies are the best are what we're best at. So, Jason, I think you would be the right man to lead this one off.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you are correct. There's not more of me for no reason. So the question here is, what is my opinion of pineapple on pizza? And what player represents pineapple on pizza? I am not like a guy that will go out and order a Hawaiian pizza, but it is good. I enjoy pineapple on a pizza, but I don't really like it. It's not my thing. So it's just one of those.

[Mike Wright]

Now, do you need to have ham on the pizza with the pineapple?

[Jason Moore]

I certainly would want meat on every pizza. I mean, don't be silly. You know, so the way I look at pineapple on a pizza, not something I would order, but I think in the end it works out. And that to me is Jimmy Graham, because I'm not drafting.

[Mike Wright]

You wouldn't order it.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not drafting Jimmy Graham, but I think it's going to end up working out where he has enough touchdowns to be a top six tight end, which is shockingly not that difficult.

[Mike Wright]

Surprisingly.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he'll work out. It's not my tempo.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, all right.

[Morgan]

Not my topping.

[Jason Moore]

Not my topping. Not my topping.

[Mike Wright]

All right, so you think Jimmy Graham, surprisingly delicious. Wouldn't order it, but if you end up with it, you'll eat it.

[Jason Moore]

Surprisingly, okay.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I wouldn't go soap. I don't eat the pineapple on pizza and go delicious. And I don't do that with Jimmy Graham.

[Mike Wright]

All right, Mike, thoughts on pineapple on a pizza.

[Morgan]

Here's the thing. Pineapple is great. Pineapple is my favorite fruit, really? In the entire world. Pineapple, then strawberries.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Morgan]

But pineapple does not belong on pizza. It's great by itself. And that's why this player is my pineapple on pizza. Because David and Joku is great. The greatness of David and Joku should be unlocked for all to watch, for the NFL to see, for fantasy football players to properly enjoy the greatness.

[Jason Moore]

I love it.

[Morgan]

David Joku on the right team would be fantastic, but he's on the Cleveland Browns. He doesn't belong there the same way. Pineapple does not belong on pizza. So David and Joku is my pineapple.

[Jason Moore]

I like it.

[Mike Wright]

All right. I. I am like Jason. I would never order a Hawaiian pizza, but I. I would never order it.

[Morgan]

And I would say happy birthday to the ground if you.

[Mike Wright]

If you had to.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

If you were handed one, you wouldn't pick the pineapple off being your favorite fruit.

[Morgan]

No, of course. So I'm not a. I'm not a savage.

[Mike Wright]

Just like, you have to pull them.

[Morgan]

Off and then you have to pick.

[Mike Wright]

And choose your Njoku week.

[Jason Moore]

So you. You pick them off.

[Morgan]

The problem is, though, is that the sweet juices have already infected the pizza.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. And you're really hands on. You love pizza. You love pineapple, you just don't put them together.

[Morgan]

Correct.

[Mike Wright]

You love David and Joku.

[Morgan]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

You don't love the browns and you wouldn't put them together.

[Morgan]

Man, we're seeing eye to eye right now.

[Mike Wright]

I would never order it. I've been to many a party where somebody has made that choice. I've eaten the chicken.

[Morgan]

Everyone's got that for it.

[Mike Wright]

Everybody's got somebody who's like, let's get a Hawaiian.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Right.

[Mike Wright]

Nobody nods, but he still orders it.

[Morgan]

And then Doofus is wearing a Hawaiian shirt too.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's true.

[Morgan]

And cargo shorts is like, hey, love pineapple pizza.

[Jason Moore]

So who's.

[Mike Wright]

Who's yours? Do I like it on pizza? Okay. It's all right. More than willing to eat it if the alternative is no pizza at all. And that's how I feel about Sammy Watkins. If I can get a good value on Tyree Kill, I'd rather have him than Sammy Watkins. But I think I'm probably going to have to swallow down some Sammy Watkins in the later rounds.

[Jason Moore]

You're going to eat the free pizza.

[Morgan]

At the party that's coming back to haunt you.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Morgan]

On the sound bites.

[Mike Wright]

I know, I know. It's. Analogies are a difficult thing and troublesome. And ultimately we record this podcast and then edit it, so who knows?

[Morgan]

Nope. That one's staying in. Okay, fantastic.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the show.

[Mike Wright]

The Ultimate Draft kit available@ultimate draftkit.com presale pricing.

[Morgan]

Make sure you let Andy.

[Mike Wright]

Don't be caught red faced on draft day. Get your Ultimate Draft Kit at Andy Holloway on Twitter.

[Morgan]

Can't wait for your mention.

[Mike Wright]

Good. I took a little Twitter break this weekend. Enjoyed the Easter weekend with the family. Did you guys have a good Easter weekend? Mike, did you fill it up? Live it up with your April Fool's jokes.

[Morgan]

Chop, please. April Fool's Day is a travesty of the greatest. It's a travesty upon this nation.

[Mike Wright]

My son is 9 years old and he doesn't understand.

[Morgan]

This is what we get. This is what you deserve.

[Mike Wright]

He thinks it's carte blanche to just be mischievous and decided to pour water. My nine year old pours water on my wife's dress at church as a April Fool's joke.

[Morgan]

Yeah, and you deserve it.

[Mike Wright]

And the joke was on us.

[Jason Moore]

You do deserve it.

[Mike Wright]

I do. We do.

[Jason Moore]

I just. I love.

[Mike Wright]

Why do I deserve it?

[Jason Moore]

Because 9 year olds are getting the.

[Morgan]

Sham of April Fool's Day.

[Mike Wright]

I didn't do anything. I just woke up.

[Jason Moore]

My younger one told me we were in charge. He goes, I don't like your pants. April Fools got me.

[Mike Wright]

He must really like them.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Morgan]

My children are well aware of my April Fool's stance in the right household. None of that shenanigans.

[Mike Wright]

So you had nothing happen? No, just silence.

[Morgan]

That's. Yeah, I didn't.

[Jason Moore]

You made a pizza.

[Mike Wright]

I did, yeah. Which.

[Morgan]

Oh, man. You want to make Twitter angry? Put peeps on a pizza and see what happens.

[Mike Wright]

So what is the peeps on a pizza player?

[Morgan]

Oh, it's terrible.

[Jason Moore]

That's disgusting.

[Morgan]

It's not good. It's just a really funny dad joke. But people were very. They were upset. They're about to riot.

[Jason Moore]

This year's Jordy.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I want to get to these rankings. So let's talk news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Mike Wright]

By the way, you can find us on Twitter. Heffballers. We're also on Instagram. Instagram.com fantasy footballers. We're on YouTube, Facebook, wherever you social media fi. We're there.

[Morgan]

Oh, clan.

[Jason Moore]

Subscribe.

[Mike Wright]

Click the subscribe button. All right, big news for Jason. The jets have signed Thomas Rawls, formerly of the Seahawks.

[Morgan]

Oh, you're gonna rev up the Rolls Royce.

[Jason Moore]

You guys are.

[Mike Wright]

All he has to do is beat out Isaiah Crowell.

[Morgan]

Shouldn't be hard.

[Jason Moore]

I like that you guys are throwing this on me. He is on the bottom of my dynasty bench, and so I'm happy he got a job. He has an opportunity. It's certainly one he could win. I still, even with Crowell, with Rawls, I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted rookie. I'm not counting Thomas Rawls as a usable asset yet. In fact, if we have to cut players, he's still in the on the chopping block for me. But at least there is opportunity versus not having a team.

[Mike Wright]

Kendall Wright signed by the Vikings. One year contract. Kendall Wright's days in the NFL seem to be numbered.

[Morgan]

I mean, he was okay last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Last year, depth player. Browns agreed to terms with Jeff Janis.

[Morgan]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Janice Chiefs have signed Matt McGloin. Chargers have signed Geno Smith. One year deal.

[Morgan]

We are ridiculous. That just in queue synchronize. We both yell out, ah, my gloin.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I mean, how many chances.

[Morgan]

It keeps happening.

[Jason Moore]

That's the reason that's in the news today.

[Mike Wright]

That is the only reason. Brooks.

[Morgan]

Good work, Brooks.

[Mike Wright]

Have we reported on the bigger injury news around the office? Jason's injury news.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, Jason's not good.

[Mike Wright]

Jason literally sat out of exercise this morning because he want to do. Because he decided to cook himself like a lobster in the Arizona sun.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was doing yard work, and I thought, you know, I think I want some color. I'm gonna take my shirt off. And then I got a lot of color. Red. Red is the color. And I'm in a lot of pain.

[Mike Wright]

It's funny. I mean, for us, not for you.

[Jason Moore]

Mm.

[Mike Wright]

Any other news? Marquette King was cut due to personality issues with Jon Gruden. The blurb, it makes. Yeah, it is. And it makes perfect sense only because we had been reading more and more about Gruden's clarification on bringing it back to the 80s or 90s or whatever he said was all about veterans in the locker room and defining the locker room culture. So apparently Marquette King, who had disagreements with the previous regime, too. Fun loving.

[Morgan]

Yeah, I love Marquette King, and Marquette King is a fantastic punter, but Del.

[Mike Wright]

Rio had problems with him, too, is what I'm saying. So there must be something that they don't want the distraction. He.

[Morgan]

He was also owed a lot of money for a punter, so the fact that this had to come out is strange.

[Mike Wright]

All right, without further ado, the main event.

[Jason Moore]

Running backs, we have been asked.

[Mike Wright]

The question many, many times this offseason. Who do you have at number one at the running back position? Who's the top pick? I think that's what you guys probably get when you're going out and around and someone recognizes you. Who's the top guy? Who's the top guy in fantasy this year? And then most people think, obviously, Peyton Manning. But outside of Peyton Manning.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I would say most people this year. And in fact, when I'm doing best ball drafts, the number one guy off the board most often in the ones I've been involved with, has been Todd Gurley, who is our consensus 100% agreed upon number two. He is not our number one guy. We all three right now have in half PPR formats, which is what we always talk Le'Veon Bell as our number one running back. I mean, these top, top guys, they're great. We don't need to say too much about them, but I think the conversation.

[Mike Wright]

Is why Lev over Todd Gurley?

[Jason Moore]

Why Lev over Todd Gurley?

[Mike Wright]

The reason for me now, like Jason said, they're all number one. We all have Love Bell number one. The reason for me has to do with total touch guarantee.

[Morgan]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Not that I think Gurley is going to not touch the ball a ton this year. It's just I've seen Lev Bell with the high touch counts for multiple seasons on a great offense with all the foundational pieces there, and you just know what you're going to get with Le'Veon Bell. So I'm leaning into that. 321 carries over 279 and just expecting Lev Bell to do what he does.

[Morgan]

Most running back touches in the league, over 400 touches. Last year for Le'Veon Bell, he was the only running back with over 300 carries and there were three running backs that had over 100 targets. That'll be Christian McCaffrey, Le'Veon Bell and Alvin Kamara. Le'Veon Bell had over 300 carries and more targets than Alvin Camara. He is the number one running back.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And the thing is, is we have enough history here to show that he should be right. Todd Gurley was drafted to be a stud. Looked like he was going to be a stud. Then he had a terrible year, which now in hindsight, we blame completely on Jeff Fisher. But you have seen history, that is.

[Mike Wright]

But we give Fisher no credit for his first year.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Exactly. It's been up and down, whereas Lev Bell is as consistent as humanly possible. And if you look at the consistency charts in the UDK and go to the consistency percentages, there's no one even close at the running back position to what Le'Veon Bell does when he plays. He's great and always has been as soon as he became the guy. And he's still young, so I don't think there's any question here. It's not a tough decision for me. When I'm on the clock at the 101, I don't actually go, what are the upsides? Could Gurley outproduce him this year? Absolutely.

[Mike Wright]

By how much.

[Jason Moore]

But the ceiling is. Is, I would say identical with both of these guys. The floor to me is very different, barring injury.

[Mike Wright]

So Love Bell caught 85 passes last year. 7.1 Reception or targets per game, total yardage. Gurley outmatched him through the air, big plays, but 7.1 targets per game, number one in the league in terms of running backs. Does. Does the lack of Todd Haley concern either of you for the game plan, or is this because it's more of.

[Morgan]

The same because Big Ben is the quarterback?

[Jason Moore]

It.

[Morgan]

It doesn't change things for me. It's like Peyton Manning offense. As you. I didn't care who the OC was for Peyton Manning.

[Jason Moore]

We.

[Morgan]

I know what he's going to do and I know how he's going to run the offense.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And the new offensive coordinator is, you know, was the quarterback coach. Same. Same system. I. They're not going to change what is working so well.

[Mike Wright]

You mean they're not bringing Steve Sarkeesian in, Right.

[Morgan]

Oh, my goodness. He was almost my pineapple.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, on the pizza.

[Morgan]

Yeah. Like doesn't belong on the pizza.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Morgan]

Sarkeesian doesn't belong. You calling place with a Falcon.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but that would have really like Cirque's.

[Morgan]

No, no, no. You can format it either way. I'm just. I was leaving it as pineapple doesn't belong.

[Jason Moore]

So now the Todd Gurley side of the equation.

[Mike Wright]

We do have him as our consensus number two.

[Jason Moore]

The Todd Gurley side of the equation. To me, look, he is super talented. You saw that. You see him used in the right fashion. We were all wanting him to be utilized in the passing game. And that's great. But what stands out to me as a possible regression point is the receiving touchdowns.

[Morgan]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Last season he had six receiving touchdowns. That is a very high number. And it's not a number that you see a lot of running backs repeat in any kind of a year after year after year. Could he get more than 13 rushing touchdowns? I mean, yeah, possibly in that offense.

[Mike Wright]

He could do it.

[Jason Moore]

But my point is, I expect Todd Gurley's total touchdown number to come down this season the same way that going into last year. I thought David Johnson wasn't going to get, you know, 20 touchdowns from the. Coming off that 2016 season. So that is my worry with Todd Gurley is his touchdown volume. I realize that the offense looks good. He looks great. The workload will be there. He's the number two. But I do think his touchdowns come down.

[Morgan]

It's not just the passing touchdowns. It's the passing yardage. Right. His rookie year, he was 7.6. Or, I apologize, rookie year, 9.0 yards per reception. Sophomore year, when it was bad, 7.6, he jumped up to 12.3 yards per reception. That's not a sustainable number. And if you watch the Tennessee Titans game, when Todd Gurley had the. Had the Huge reception. That inflated things and a couple of the big plays. He will still get the targets. He had the fourth highest target percentage for running backs. He had a higher target market share than Duke Johnson. And this is Todd Gurley.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I trust McVay to be creative enough to get him the ball in the passing game and get him in space. But you're right, those are a couple points there where Lev Bell was targeted more, had a decent what, 150 fewer yards through the air than Gurley. So that could come down a little bit. Gurley was technically the most consistent running back last year, even over Le'Veon Bell. Both of them only busted one time on the entire year. Based on our. And yeah, 52.5 receiving yards per game. That's a ton. You're getting that David Johnson like performance from the year before from Todd Gurley. He's our consistent or our consensus number two. Anything else you want to add on Gurley?

[Morgan]

Nope.

[Mike Wright]

We're going to start to get into the much more debatable yes. Group here and I think we'll start with that debate right here.

[Jason Moore]

David Johnson.

[Mike Wright]

David Johnson is our consensus number three.

[Morgan]

We got to get the band. Get the band ready.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Jason, you notice didn't sing and I know why. He has them ranked. He has him ranked four, not three. Mike and I have him at three. And David Johnson returns from injury. He played half a game last year. And here we are, the number one running back in fantasy in 2016. By the way, these rankings are based on a half point per reception scoring format.

[Morgan]

You could just say the right scoring format.

[Mike Wright]

I could, I could, but I don't want to, you know, alienate our listeners who play in totally acceptable but inferior scoring systems like. Like Brooks.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we still get out of here.

[Morgan]

Brooks, full ppr.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, don't try me again.

[Mike Wright]

Said that was like. Oh, yeah, that was like a political party he's supporting over there. So David Johnson, Jason, you have to explain why you have him. And all the way down at number four, Ezekiel Elliott. Flip flopped. Kind of how we described the differences between Bell and Gurley. But David Johnson coming off the injury healthy. The story for me, if you have to write, write the narrative for David Johnson is he's going to get the ball a ton. Is the team good enough to get him in a position to score? I don't worry about touches with David Johnson, barring health issues, which we always presume health in these situations. I don't worry about touches. I worry about touchdowns. Is that fair, Mike?

[Morgan]

That is Completely fair. The volume will be there in 2016 though. I mean, just, just remember.

[Mike Wright]

Let's remember. Let's go.

[Morgan]

Oh, do we got a flashback button? I don't but 20 total touchdowns over 2,100 yards from scrimmage. The thing that we. That has some hope for David Johnson. I mean Sam Bradford, when he's healthy, can. He can be a good quarterback. But the Cardinals have spent off season money to upgrade their offensive line. Justin Pugh, Andre Smith, they've brought guys in. Are those guys the answer? I'm not sure. But at least they're. They're addressing the situation. And if the offensive line can be strong and this. The new Cardinals appear to be trying to set themselves up to be defense and David Johnson. So the volume would be there. A player with 80 receptions, I mean, that's ridiculous. Ridiculous. So he's going to get the ball. But the 16 rushing touchdowns is not, it's not obtainable.

[Mike Wright]

It is important that people remember David Johnson. The receiving aspects to his game are a. They're a feature of his game. They're not an accident. Like they target him in the passing game because you should target him in the passing game. Larry Fitzgerald's the only proven receiver on that team. So David Johnson will very much. I think you can make the argument right now he is the wide receiver to the RB1 and the wide receiver two for the cardinal.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely correct. And he came out of college, you know, he was a wide receiver at one point in time. Came out, I believe in 2016 Pro Football Focus when they do their scoring and ranking their number one. Their number one wide receiver ranked was David Johnson a running back. So yeah, you're right, Andy. It's not like, oh, Sean McVeigh came to town and figured out I should get my running back into a scheme. It was much more so of if you're not utilizing David Johnson the passing game. So I'm not worried. Change of offensive coordinator. They're still going to use him there. I completely echo everything you said. The touchdowns themselves are the worry the office as a whole.

[Mike Wright]

So number four. Let's move on to number four and then you can explain.

[Jason Moore]

Well, that's where I was going. For me, it's not so much an argument against David Johnson. It's a reminder of how good Ezekiel Elliott is. Ezekiel Elliott missed games. Ezekiel Elliott was out of shape. He was fat. Oh, have you seen the pictures lately? He's so overweight this season. Get your life together, Ezekiel. Except. Except, except is that one below the belt? I'm saying this. No, I'm not saying that's what I'm saying. I'm saying that's what the people. I see this, I read this. That's what the people are saying. Oh, he's so fat.

[Mike Wright]

We're making fun of you, Jay. That's what we were doing. He was making fun of you. And then he asked me if it was below the belt and I said, yeah, we didn't think that you were being below the belt with Zeke.

[Morgan]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

But my point is this last season on a per game basis, because you have to, you have to go per game with Zeke, since he was suspended for several games, he was better than Alvin Kamara. He was right behind Le'Veon Bell. I mean, he has 19 points a game and half point scoring. He was actually ahead of Le'Veon Bell in standard scoring. And he comes in rookie year and was unfathomably good. His sophomore year. He's unfathomably good. He's dropping in ranks. So I'm saying stop it. I have no worries with Zeke. He has never shown me anything to think he's not consistent. He's not going to get the ball, he's not going to get the touchdowns. And he still has the areas where he could still improve by being more involved in the passing game a lot. Todd Gurley. So I just say, why would I draft David Johnson over. With all the question marks over a Zeke? That's where I stand.

[Morgan]

First off, there is, I mean, there's the eternal fantasy football debate of Alvin Camara or Alvin Camara. Somehow Jason did them both.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I did.

[Morgan]

In one pronunciation.

[Jason Moore]

So tip of the stuff, I've been training.

[Morgan]

But here's the numbers for Zeke. He had the one outlier game, if you remember, against Denver where he was nine for eight on the ground. So that means his numbers, right? In nine games he had 233 carries, almost 1,000 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. That's almost 110 rushing yards per game.

[Jason Moore]

Per game.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, we obviously Mike and I have him at 4, so we don't have a great departure here. I still lean on the side of the reception totals. That's fair because this isn't the difference between these teams. These question marks you bring up, I mean, yes, you have Dak Prescott, but this was a 9 and 7 Dallas team and an 8 and 8 Cardinal team with similar pieces and maybe 50 more receptions for David Johnson. So that's where I lean. It's splitting hairs. I guess you could also split them on the side of okay, is, you know, is he going to stay out of trouble and is David Johnson going to stay healthy? And that's, you have to ask yourself that question. So fair enough.

[Morgan]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think that's all right.

[Mike Wright]

Before we lay out number five, which.

[Jason Moore]

Feels like a tear break rankings.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I would say that before we get into number five, we do want to thank today's sponsor, fantasy champs. Look, if you haven't, if you're just tuning in and you haven't heard of fantasy Champs, well, shame on you. Shame on you for tuning in this.

[Morgan]

Shame on you for never hearing something.

[Mike Wright]

How dare you. Fantasychamps.com is the absolute best place to go for fantasy football trophies. They have custom fantasy football jerseys. They have fantasy football rings. You can get your draft boards. So if you're going to do a live draft and you need a draft board, there's no place better than fantasychamps.com use the promo code Ballers. When you go over there, it's as simple as that. There's not some great big sell here. There is great products.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. If you want products, that's where you go.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I actually just saw, I don't know if it was in a tweet, but I saw a picture of their warehouse of all these golden trophies lined up getting ready for the 2018 season. It's simple. Go to fantasychamps.com if you want some gear for your league.

[Morgan]

The promo code is ballers.

[Mike Wright]

Ballers, Ballers.

[Morgan]

Save a little bit of quiche and reminder. The ultimate draft kit is available for pre order. This is the cheapest possible price. The ultimate draft kit. It stays updated all off season. This bad boy will launch on June 1st. That's when you can get in and you can see the hundred plus video profiles, all of our projections for every fantasy relevant player. You know the regular lists like the sleepers, the breakouts, busts, all of that stuff is available. But I want to emphasize we don't sleep on it. We, we don't hit publish and then it's done. News happens. We're scrambling. We're scrambling. I'm waking andy up at 3 in the morning. Dude, we got, we got to change the projections.

[Mike Wright]

That's why it's called ultimate. Yes, it's the ultimate draft kit. It's not the unnecessary draft kit.

[Morgan]

It's not the ultimate.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I like it.

[Morgan]

It's the ultimate. So check it out. Ultimate draft kit dot com.

[Jason Moore]

How do we not own udk dot com?

[Mike Wright]

It's very udk.

[Jason Moore]

You got to get your udk yeah, let's check.

[Mike Wright]

That's Unreal Engine.

[Morgan]

Yeah, we know why.

[Mike Wright]

Because I like how you bring that up just publicly on the show.

[Morgan]

Like, because Epic Games owns that. Yeah, I don't think there's. That's why.

[Mike Wright]

That's the answer. All right, number five, why don't we.

[Morgan]

Own Gears of War? Have we thought of this?

[Jason Moore]

It's a good question, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I used to say that about Facebook. Now I'm not so sure. Kareem Hunt is the number five on our list. Ironically, he's our number. All of us have him at six, but he just falls in as our consensus number five because of where we have other players lined up. So Kareem Hunt, number five. Jason, you said it kind of felt like a tear break.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I think the top four, right, David Johnson, Zeke Leve Bell, Todd Gurley. Those feel really safe. Really. Sure.

[Mike Wright]

Those are comfortable.

[Jason Moore]

And now you get to the next tier where you've got absolutely great options at running. Running back this year is far deeper when it comes to stud running backs than it was last year and the year prior going into draft season. But while there are still great options on the board like the next four or five will name, there's a lot more questions now with Kareem Hunt. Okay, Spencer Ware coming back, how does that affect him? Alex Smith, the quarterback changing, does the offense get worse? Does the offense get better? There's just a lot more murkiness here. And you'll find with a lot of these players, especially dealing with last year's rookies that were so great, you just don't have a large enough sample size to have, you know, surety on Levy, on Bell. You've got the year after year after year progress where you can bank on Todd Gurley. You thought you had it after year one, then he had allows year two. So this is what we're dealing with here. That's why Kareem Hunt feels like a tear break to me and is and is my 6th best player.

[Mike Wright]

Broke 48 tackles last year, the most in the NFL, I believe he was also the rushing leader. He was kind of a feather in the cap for a running back to lead the league in rushing.

[Morgan]

Todd Gurley would have been the leader had he played the final week, but.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, but you had, you had kind of a. I don't know if I want to call it a roller coaster. I mean, it was like you were gobbling up fantasy points in the beginning of the year with Cream Hunt. The value, where you got him, league winning type guy. Then your stomach Got a little sick for a little while there. Yeah, thanks to. Mostly we blame Andy Reid for that underutilization, but that is built in. That is baked into the risk with Kareem Hunt. And then he finished the year very strong and he still caught 53 passes. So he checks that box. When you want an elite running back, you want him to be involved in the passing game. And look, 53 catches on 63 targets. That's great.

[Morgan]

And we do have at least the narrative street hype train. Andy Reid has already said he wants Cream Hunt further involved in the passing game. So if he can go up from 50 plus receptions, that's. That's huge. He was number one in yards after contact, more than Lev, more than Todd Gurley.

[Mike Wright]

But can he catch fireballs from Pat Mahomes? Does he wear a certain. Do you have to wear a certain like heat protecting glove when you.

[Morgan]

It's called oven mitts. Yeah, oven mitts for Kareem Hunt. And then he will be fine.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I think.

[Jason Moore]

That'll make it a little difficult to catch.

[Mike Wright]

Eric Ebron's had those on for years and has not helped. There was all oven mitts.

[Morgan]

There is a. All oven mitts. The column. Yeah, there is a direct correlation with running backs getting touches and running backs being awesome for fantasy football. And Kareem Hunt was one of only six running backs that had more than 300 touches. So I feel very confident in the volume for Kareem Hunt.

[Mike Wright]

So if you had to give him a risk overall, a risk rating. Okay, I would give him a. What's the risk on Kareem Hunt versus those first four?

[Morgan]

Oh, the first four.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Morgan]

Because I mean those first four, except David Johnson, I said, would give him a little bit of a higher risk rating as well. But I agree that Hunt is. The chance of Hunt being a one year wonder is far higher than David Johnson.

[Mike Wright]

But mostly because David Johnson's been in the league longer.

[Morgan]

Yeah, but Kareem Hunt is a fantastic running back. He will get the volume. But you do have to deal with the Andy Reed shenanigans of you. There's going to be a few weeks here and there where Cream Hunt just doesn't get the ball.

[Mike Wright]

All right, it's time for Jason's number five running back, my seven, Mike's eight. And our consensus number six should be five. Just to count them up. Lev Bell, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Cream Hunt, and now Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon coming in at number six. Well, Jason, you. You have to be the man to make the case here with him at number five, and I actually think it's.

[Jason Moore]

A pretty easy case to make.

[Mike Wright]

Last year he finished the year, what, five. The year before was seven.

[Jason Moore]

So I believe this last season he was. He was the seventh ranked.

[Morgan]

No, last year he was five.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, last year he was five. And then in 2016 he was the seventh ranked. So consistency wise, he's been in that top 10. But you believe he stays around five.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, the reality is he's. He's missed some games. We forget how on fire he was two years ago because he did.

[Mike Wright]

He missed any games last year.

[Jason Moore]

I'm saying in this career, I'm saying when you look back at the, at the sample when he had his sophomore campaign where he broke out and was dominant, I mean, he was so good. What'd you say he finished Fifth?

[Mike Wright]

Seventh.

[Jason Moore]

He was seventh.

[Morgan]

He was fantasy dominant.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he was fantasy dominant. I know you're going to bring up the efficiency, you know, and that's why you don't like him. But this is where I see a team trending in the right direction. They have their workhorse. There's no reason on planet Earth why the sandwich San Diego Chargers, why the Los Angeles Chargers would not want to utilize him when he's been so successful for their team, for real NFL. And the reality is, I think the Chargers are taking a step forward. They've improved their offensive line. I think their offense looks great, their defense looks great. I have them projected to the playoffs. And if they as a team are taking that next step up and they're great the way that I believe they're going to be, Melvin Gordon is going to be a huge part of that. And at the end of the year, he's going to be a top five running back or, you know, maybe he's six or seven. But I see a lot fewer reasons to say he could drop out of the top 12, barring injury. There's just no way. Whereas some of these other question marks, you know, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, maybe their roles change. We haven't seen that established. That's where I love Melvin Gordon.

[Mike Wright]

Interesting fact for Gordon, and make of it what you will, he broke 40 tackles, which was the second most in the NFL. He was also stuffed 68 times, the second most in the NFL. So he was put in a position.

[Jason Moore]

Offensive line play.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I was gonna say that. That does seem to lean itself to bad offensive line play. The volume was there, so he made it work. And 58 receptions goes a long way towards that. Mike you have him the lowest at 8. Obviously still a top 10 back. We're splitting hairs here in the first 10 running backs. But why is Melvin not as high as he is for you, as he is for Jason?

[Morgan]

It's just liking other players more than Melvin Gordon.

[Jason Moore]

No, it's because you hate Melvin Gordon and you always have. Admit the truth, Mike.

[Morgan]

I've admitted the truth many, many times that I, I'm not fully convinced that Melvin Gordon is a great running back. I think he's fine. And like I said, the correlation of touches, Melvin Gordon gets touches. So I've. I've admitted defeat that Melvin Gordon will be fine for fantasy football. And I even brought up a. A or he wrote a note for Jason's defense of a lot of people like, okay, Austin Eckler. What's going on with that? The passing role, Eckler, I saw him in there. Some in there catching passes. The games where Austin Eckler got his most targets of the year, Jacksonville. Austin Eckler got five targets, Melvin Gordon got eight. He still got targeted against Denver. Austin Eckler got four targets. So did Melvin Gordon. So the games where Eckler was being heavy or had heavier utilization in the passing game, so did Melvin Gordon. The touches are going to be there. He's just. He's. He's a good.

[Mike Wright]

He's not as exciting to own is what it seems like. You didn't have a lot of monstrous plays. You just had production.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, he did.

[Morgan]

He finally broke a thousand yards.

[Mike Wright]

Eleven hundred, didn't he?

[Jason Moore]

Dude, that's so not fair to him. What was he, 997 yards? Oh, it's in 13 games.

[Morgan]

It is certainly not and yet a fact.

[Mike Wright]

All right, number seven. Number seven on our consensus top ten running back ranks. The way too early running back ranks, but not. Not really too early. Right. Time. Leonard Fournette. Leonard Fournette, number seven. I have him at eight. Jason seven. Mike, you got him up at five. I do. That's interesting. I didn't realize you had him so high last year. 268 carries over a thousand yards, nine touchdowns, caught 36 passes for 302 yards. So do you think people are freaking.

[Jason Moore]

Out right now as we keep naming names and they're going, where's Alvin Camara? No, no. I think some people are good.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

Anyways, back to Leonard Fournette.

[Mike Wright]

Leonard Fournette, 13 games last year. So he had the injury bug a little bit. Average 20.6 carries per game, third highest in the league.

[Morgan]

That's why he's five for me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And that's. That's fair. He. To me, he is. He's like a step down from Zeke, but they're in the same category together, where I'm not going. Maybe they can surpass 35 receptions, but I'm not banking on either player having more than 30, 35 receptions.

[Morgan]

It's just the touches.

[Mike Wright]

But speaking of, they're going to be a good team.

[Morgan]

Of, yes, they will be a great team. But speaking of risk factors, Leonard, 4 Nets has to be very high. So many leg injuries. Not. This is not a fluke, lacerated kidney. This is a. Things repeatedly happening to his lower body, which gives me great concern. But if he plays 16 games, Leonard Fournette is going to be an absolute monster. He gave the line of 268 carries. That was in 13 games.

[Jason Moore]

It's ridiculous.

[Morgan]

He's going to be over 300 carries and he's going to get goal line and he'll have rushing touchdowns. So he's five for me right now.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Anything you want to add on Fournette, Jason?

[Jason Moore]

Just his consistency. I mean, Leonard Fournette genuinely is one of the most consistent backs this last year. I mean, you bring up the 13 games and how good he was in those games. There was very rarely did he ever, you know, poop your team.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

If he was playing because of the ball, said so. I really like Leonard.

[Mike Wright]

They also picked up Andrew Norwell. They stole a very, very good guard from the market, from Carolina. So Andrew Norwell arrives in Jacksonville. Leonard Fournette doesn't. He doesn't get enough credit for the turnaround in Jacksonville, in my opinion. And I know, Mike, I completely disagree. You're just. I know, I know. But you have to just watch. I have to watch the games. And there are before when they had Ivory or they had Yelden or somebody else. You need somebody who falls forward. You need somebody who moves the pile. And they had not. There's few guys in the league that when you hand them the ball and they run into a giant pile, they always gain a couple yards. Lynch used to do that all the time. He is there. Marshawn Lynch. The way that Seattle drove their offense through. Marshawn, that's how Jacksonville wants to do it. Takes the pressure off of Bortles and just run the ball.

[Jason Moore]

It really is true. And to combine that with what I was saying, consistency wise, if you look over the last two years, the consistency percentage for making sure you Finish as an RB2 or better RB1 or 2. So that you're having a good week. Last year the data was David Johnson was 100% because he only played the one game. Then it went Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Zeke Leonard Fournette. I mean he, if he's playing, he's a win for your fantasy roster.

[Morgan]

Oh yeah, absolutely. But we just, we disagree that Fournettes impact on the actual NFL team.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, we do.

[Jason Moore]

I side with Andy on this one.

[Morgan]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

All right. You might not on this one. Number eight on our consensus rankings is Alvin Camara. Super Camario. Hey, he's my number five guys.

[Jason Moore]

I don't, I don't blame you.

[Mike Wright]

I read a really good. You know what convinced me as I read this really good article?

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I don't agree with you.

[Mike Wright]

I read it article on a website, the fancy footballers.com written by an expert in the industry and it made the case for Alvin Kamara this year. And I think that there is room to grow. Last year, this super, incredible, unstoppable, unbelievable year for Alvin Kamara. 120 carries, had 81 receptions, 826 yards. Obviously did all of his damage through the air, but I still think there is room to grow for Alvin Kamara and I do not. Look, this is a handpicked choice by Peyton. This is a team that was on Diggs catch away from being in the title game. I don't think things are going to change very much for this roster. So then do you believe that he can be as efficient as he was last year? Probably not, but I think he'll compensate for that. In kind of a replication of the second half utilization which went up proportionally. Him and Ingram, he got more of the carries. He got a lot more in the playoffs and I think that they're going to use him. The big number that everybody's afraid of yet should be excited about was that 7.7 yards per touch. You're afraid of it because nobody's ever done that for their career and nobody's ever going to do that for their career. And you like it because that means you're a special, special player. So you guys. Jason, you've got him the lowest. You got him at 9. I don't really take issue with anybody who doesn't want to buy into my narrative. I just.

[Jason Moore]

Your narrative in that article was fantastic. Which is basically you laid out the case for why his volume should and will go up. And I really like that that. Because that's what you need. For Camara to replicate what he did last year, he needs a Little bit more volume. And my issue, the reason I've got him lowest, I've got him at 9 is because I don't have to project any of the other guys that I've got ahead of him for some kind of magical increase in volume. And volume is the most predictable stat that we have, especially for running backs to predict success in fantasy. It's not touchdowns, it's not utilization and passing game versus being a goal lineback. It's how many times do they get to touch the ball. And while I love Alvin Camara, he was my bold prediction last year to be a top three rookie running back. I really like the talent and he could absolutely. That's why I said I don't blame you for having him at 5. I've got him ranked at 9 because in order for him to meet kind of what projections I'm giving, he has to have a huge workload increase. And you know, I hope it happens, but I'm not going to bank on it.

[Morgan]

Yeah, There was only two running backs in the top 10 of fantasy points that weren't in the top 10 in touches and that was Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara.

[Mike Wright]

And that's because excluding his rushing stats, he would have been the wide receiver 21 in PPR leagues. Yeah, that's, that's. He's a he. He doesn't feel as cozy as your running back one if you draft him to be it the way that a Fournette or Zeke or Bell or Johnson, any of those bigger, more guaranteed touch players. But I do think he will perform to that level. He obviously has to stay healthy. Being a smaller back. Can't have concussion issues. He got banged up last year once with a concussion. There are, there's a lot of confidence I have in Sean Payton to use. So. But if, if Mark Ingram had as good of a year, it's still possible. And you don't have to deal with an Ingram in the backfield of all those other guys. So I definitely understand if you want to take them down the list a little bit. Mike, you have him at seven. Jason, nine, Our number nine running back on our early running back rankings. Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook, injured last season, but before he was injured averaged 15 fantasy points per game was excellent. A bit of a surprise for those that maybe were worried about his combine performance, but my confidence in Dalvin Cook comes down to how good I think this team's going to be. And if you're going to be a top five team in your conference and this guy can catch the Ball. This guy can run the ball. And you're going to have to worry about Kirk Cousins and those wide receivers. I just think the opportunities are going to be through the roof for them. Great defense, a lot of games that they're going to lean on him. Is that pretty much why you guys have him in the same boat? Jason, eight. Mike, you have him at 11.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, look, when, when he played last year, he was great. This is a matter of if he was. If he was healthy and we knew he was healthy, he could be higher than this in the rankings. This is all a matter of how does he come back from that injury. This is an injury where at his age and at the recovery timeline that he's been given because of how early that injury happened in the year, he should be ready to go full strength by week one. So that's kind of what I'm projecting him forward. And if that's the case, the coaching staff has already talked about he's the guy they're going. They're not going to shy away because of the injury. They're going to give him the work. And on a team with so many weapons, you're not going to be able to just stack the box. You got Kirk Cousins, Kendall Wright now screaming out of the slot. You know, I. That would be great, the new offensive tactic to throw the D off. But no, I mean, you saw there were a lot of people worried after the combine, but he did what he did in college, which was electrify. Break off big runs, you get used fantastically in the passing game, and I think the offense gets better. He's back. He's the workhorse. And I don't believe this is projecting a new workload for him. It's merely projecting health.

[Mike Wright]

Pretty comfy at number nine.

[Morgan]

But when the question for Dalvin Cook is what does the receiving game look like? Because, I mean, last year in his three and a half games, he had, you know, 11 receptions on 16 targets. In the first three games, Jerick McKinnon took 10 targets. Jerick McKinnon's not there. Latavius Murray is the current backup. And Latavius Murray did not get targets in the, in the Minnesota's passing game. So is Dalvin Cook all of a sudden soak up everything they had planned for McKinnon last year?

[Jason Moore]

Probably not everything, but it's. It certainly sounds like a bump up.

[Mike Wright]

All right, number 10, Shady, you're still in the top 10. Number 10 overall, Lashawn McCoy. Last year, he was, he was pretty darn good. 287 carries, 1138 yards, six touchdowns, caught 59 passes for 448 yards and two touchdowns on 77 targets into the year is the RB7. We've got him at 10 right now. This is a product of liking other teams and situations and players more than what we like in Buffalo.

[Jason Moore]

No, not for me.

[Mike Wright]

What is it for you?

[Jason Moore]

This is a shady scare for me. I recognize he's great.

[Morgan]

Don't throw shade on the shady one.

[Jason Moore]

And look last year I didn't see anything that said he lost a step. Right. He looked great. But he is entering 30. He has crossed the threshold of carries where you have seen a history of other great running backs who fall off. And there was nothing in two years ago's film to say that DeMarco Murray was done. He looked great two years ago. But as soon as some injuries started creeping up into Murray at this age, all of a sudden it was difficult and it impacted his ability to produce. So you combine that with the Bills looking like who's the quarterback? What's the offense going to be like? He's older. My risk rating for him is going to be high because I just don't.

[Mike Wright]

Know how those variables are different than what they've been like. They've had quarterback problems, they've had offensive line problems. They'd have offense problems for three years and he was fourth and then seventh and then, you know, he'll be top 10.

[Jason Moore]

It's been a slow trend downward. And I mean slow because it's not like he's fallen off anywhere. But he has to, you know, trended to, you know, downward the last two years. Now he's also a year older. I mean, 30 is usually that scary age for a running back.

[Morgan]

Melvin Gordon wishes he could do what Shady McCoy did last year.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely. I'm not saying Shady had a bad year. I'm just saying there are markers that scare me and that's.

[Mike Wright]

Why would you count that as trending down the last two years when he went from 16th to 4th?

[Morgan]

Well, his efficiency did go down. I mean, this was his technically his worst year in a while. But you also have, it's pointed out, I believe was Mike Clay pointed this out. The percentage of shady McCoy's carries from shotgun where he's great and you mean two years, three years ago, 67%. Two years, 43% last year, 17%.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Morgan]

You have a coaching staff that seems to want to force their agenda upon the players instead of really utilizing the.

[Mike Wright]

Strengths of their players, but got themselves through the playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

So why would they change? I mean, why? Why would they change? It's working. He had his lowest yards per carry of his entire career. So those are the markers. But he's great. He's used in the passing game. He's a goal line guy. He's fantastic.

[Mike Wright]

Look, I think if Shady saw himself in the double digits here, chip on. He'd shake his head at you. Watch this.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

All right, that is it for the top 10. Mike, you want to run them back?

[Morgan]

All right, we got number one, Le'Veon Bell. Number two, Todd Gurley. Three is David Johnson. Four, Ezekiel Elliot. Five, Cream Hunt. Six, Melvin Gordon. Seven, Leonard Fournette. Number eight, Alvin Kamara. Number nine, Dalvin Cook. And number ten, the shadiest of the shady, LaShawn McCoy.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we are gonna take a couple seconds. Jump into the mailbag. Somebody give me a Kendall Wright mailbag, bro.

[Jason Moore]

Mailbag.

[Mike Wright]

Mailbag.

[Jason Moore]

Mailbag. Throw me the ball.

[Mike Wright]

Throw me the ball. The ball.

[Jason Moore]

The mailbag.

[Morgan]

Did you go with words I just shouted?

[Jason Moore]

No, I just shouted, but then I followed it with a mailbag shout.

[Mike Wright]

Brooks is losing his mind over there. If you have a question for the show, you can be featured in the mailbag segment. 302464 TFFB is the phone number screaming.

[Morgan]

Out of the slot.

[Mike Wright]

You can also submit a question on the website. Just screaming. Just screaming out of the slot. We're gonna start with a voicemail.

[Brooks]

Hey, ballers, this is James calling you from across the valley in Gilbert. Love the show, but I have a question about dynasty. I'm taking over a dynasty team this year. It's gonna be my first year doing a rookie draft. How do you guys look at valuing draft picks versus players? I was offered a trade for Marlon Mack and Aaron Jones and I'd be giving up the 103 pick. Just not sure how to focus on what's the best way to value those picks. Thanks, guys. Love the show.

[Morgan]

Now, I would say that is your league partner is looking at someone who's not sure how to value rookie picks and hoping to pull one over on you.

[Jason Moore]

Correct.

[Morgan]

Not that I dislike either of those players. I am on the side that Aaron Jones will be the running back for the Green Bay packers. But the actual value when you're just talking in a dynasty league, the 103 is a lot higher than these two players combined. Right or wrong. I'm not saying that the 103, whoever you take there, is a guarantee more than Marlon Mack or Aaron Jones. Just saying the perceived value in these actual rookie drafts is much higher than that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think it's fair. I would agree with that. This question comes in from Zach in Seattle. I play in the league where the vast majority of owners are lifelong fans of the Seahawks. Players from Seattle are consistently overvalued as a result. How do I use this to my advantage? Oh, they also said PBS Brooks is number one.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, what?

[Mike Wright]

Is not based on our dynasty league finish. But I get what you're saying.

[Jason Moore]

Just. Yeah. So how do you take advantage of a league where everyone likes Seahawks? Here's what you don't do. You don't get too cute with it. You don't go after the Seahawks players and try to draft them a little bit higher than they do because they'll pay up later. What you do is you take advantage of the fact that they're making foolish picks and you just stick with the plan, draft tier based and grab better value. Because someone's grabbing Tyler Lockett in the sixth round.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

And you know, the other thing I would say to steal all of them from you guys is on the waiver wire. That's where if you can scoop up someone early before they break out.

[Morgan]

Yeah. I was just going to say with one of your last picks, if I'm in this league, honestly, I might grab. I might draft Arbo.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Morgan]

And see maybe a week one breakout happens because they'll pay through the nose.

[Jason Moore]

For that player if other people aren't already drafting. Yeah.

[Morgan]

Yes, of course.

[Mike Wright]

Hometown players.

[Jason Moore]

What's the, what's the tight end there as well? That's. Oh, yes, yes.

[Mike Wright]

Hometown players are great. Throw ins for trades, too. Because if somebody, if you've got a trade that's right on the cusp. And I'm always a big fan of the 2 for 1, 3 for 1 deals where you get the best player back. If you're throwing, you know, one running back plus Darbo or plus some player that, you know, lock it, then they're like, oh, I get my guy back. I get. I get one to root for my hometown team. All right, tight end question from Oliver in Spring Texas. What tight end has the highest upside? Who has the safest floor? All right, let's say that again. What tight end has the highest upside? Okay, so that's one question. All right, and then who has the safest floor?

[Jason Moore]

Gronk.

[Mike Wright]

And that's out of these players. Trey Burton, George Kittle, Luke Wilson. Highest upside has got to be Trey Burton.

[Morgan]

I'll answer the question with this. Trey Burton has the highest upside and Trey Burton has the Safest floor.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I agree with that.

[Jason Moore]

I do too. I do as well. I think there's a lot more question marks on Kittle and Wilson.

[Mike Wright]

Agreed. All right. Brandon in Connecticut. Hey, guys. Love the show. Who do I keep? Lev Bell is a first rounder or do I keep Hooked on a Thielen in the six. That's Lev in the first. Hooked on a Thielen in the six. Adam Thielen, 12 team league one keeper. You got to trade that spot. So here's how I like to do these, Mike, you're. You're giving me the finger as in the pointer finger.

[Morgan]

The points are finger things.

[Mike Wright]

Say you had something to say. Rude. Would you like me to finish or do you want. No, you go ahead. Not too excited. All right. I like to think of these things and evaluate them as who would I end up drafting in that first round hypothetically and do I like them. Plus Thielen versus Love Bell. So. Well, you shouldn't throw the surrounder in there. But in this league with one keeper, big time running backs, you got to imagine the Gurleys and Johnson's and Zeke's there. Some of them are likely kept and it depends on where you're drafting from. But let's say, let's give a hypothetical and you can end up with Melvin Gordon and Adam Thielen. Would you rather have those two players.

[Morgan]

Over Levin Bell Again, I need the player in the sixth round. What I'm looking at here, it's only a two wide receiver and it's a standard lead.

[Mike Wright]

It's going to be a much worse player than Adam Thielen.

[Morgan]

Yes, I agree, but it's a standard league and it's only two wide receivers. So because of that I'll just take the sure value of Le'Veon Bell.

[Mike Wright]

Jason?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think you could go either direction and build a great team. But I'm with Mike. I would rather have the locked in solid, you know, running back one or worst case running back three on my roster in this format.

[Mike Wright]

All right, that is it for today's mailbag. We've got another show on Thursday. We'll be talking the rest of our early running back rankings so do not miss that more guys with bigger debates about their performance and how they'll play this year, which means that we'll probably be fighting a little bit in the studio and we'll do a stats on Thursday. We'll have the jointhefoot.com show on Thursday as well. And don't forget to check out draft.com/ballers if you want to play some best ball with us, that's draft.comballers. thank you for tuning in, listening, subscribing. We always appreciate all of your support.

[Morgan]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter @The FF Ballers.