
Fantasy Football Podcast for April 17th, 2018. On today’s show, we move on to the tight end position in our early rankings shows for 2018 fantasy football! Andy, Mike, and Jason discuss their consensus Top 12 TEs, as well as some sleeper picks in the la
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Andy Holloway
Great, Scott. If my calculations are correct, you are listening to this before your fantasy football drafts have taken place. I've been to the future, and those that followed the advice from the Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft kit had a spectacular season. And with certain victories, it's almost as if Biff had given each of them a copy of Gray's Sports Almanac. I'd highly recommend heading over to WWE. Www.ultimatedraftkit.com without any further delay.
Jason Moore
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Andy Holloway
Ah, great. St. Scott.
Mike Wright
My.
Andy Holloway
Back again. Back by popular demand from a couple.
Mike Wright
Days ago.
Andy Holloway
Tuesday, April 17th. Welcome back. We have our early tight end rankings on today's show. Everyone is here. Everyone is present in mind and body.
Jason Moore
Hey, well, you know, let's slow down there a little bit. In my. In body.
Andy Holloway
Oh.
Jason Moore
Physically here.
Andy Holloway
Oh, okay.
Jason Moore
We never know my mental state.
Andy Holloway
No, no. And that's part of the fun.
Jason Moore
Mm.
Andy Holloway
That's why they click subscribe, Jason on.
Jason Moore
Itunes and I thank them for it. Thank you.
Andy Holloway
Thank you. Mike is here.
Jason Moore
Hey.
Andy Holloway
Always enthusiastic, always excitable.
Mike Wright
I was giving Jason his moment in the sun.
Andy Holloway
Was that the celery that you had at lunch? Is that why you're so amped up? Oh, at least a lot of natural caffeine in that celery.
Mike Wright
4.
Jason Moore
What a.
Mike Wright
What do you call a cut stalk?
Andy Holloway
It's a celery stalk.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Thank you.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Four giant stalks of celery. Not good.
Andy Holloway
Unhappy. Unhappy all the way.
Mike Wright
Are there people out there that really take a bite of celery and go, yeah, this is it with peanut butter.
Andy Holloway
By itself, Jason, by itself.
Jason Moore
Does ranch count?
Mike Wright
No, I wish it counts. I mean.
Jason Moore
I mean, does that count as by itself?
Andy Holloway
No.
Mike Wright
I doused my celery and ranch just so I could get it.
Jason Moore
I completely by itself. Bite of celery. No. Nobody goes, oh, my good. Jim. Jim, get in here. You gotta try this. It's so good.
Andy Holloway
I like putting gore in your lineup.
Mike Wright
I tried to feed a stalk of celery to a bunny rabbit. I got kicked in the face.
Andy Holloway
Did you?
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
I hope that's it.
Mike Wright
You ever been kicked in the face by a bunny?
Andy Holloway
I know this is a strong legs. We have a great quick question. I'm gonna get right to it, but I'm gonna say this. The problem with dressing and stuff on carrots and celery is that the dressing taste is gone and you still have three quarters of the chew left. That's the problem with Putting it on vegetables.
Jason Moore
You're not putting enough dressing, my friends.
Andy Holloway
That's the key. You can find us on twitter@the ffballers instagram.com fantasy footballers. The community is jointhefoot.com Become a member of the Foot Clan and get access to Foot Clan leagues. An extra episode every week. Bonus stats, projections. Some. Some secret. Some secret things.
Jason Moore
Secret.
Andy Holloway
Behind the curtain. You get to see behind the curtain. Quick question of the day. Can you compare streaming the quarterback position to streaming the tight end position? And that's a great question. I actually, before I saw Brooks put this in as the quick question I had thought a little bit about, I wanted to go back and look at last year's stats and see how the top tight ends did, the top quarterbacks did, and then compare it to the next 10, just how those finish. The next 10 finish and they're the same. I actually thought there might be a disparity between if you had Gronk, Kelsey and Ertz compared to like the average score of the next 10, I thought that that gap would be larger than the top three quarterbacks in the next 10. It was the same. It was about four points per game difference. If you average the top three at the position and compare it to the next 10. I don't know if I gave you an answer saying that other than the fact that the score, the difference between the top tier guys and then that next category of, you know, streaming player is about four points.
Jason Moore
Yeah, one of the. There's. You can argue actually for it and against it there's kind of two countering arguments. One says that you know, at quarterback, your replaceable value. Right. You've got a ton of great quarterback options, far more than 12 good startable quarterbacks. So you could play off the waivers tight ends, you've got three good ones and then a bunch of garbage.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
You know, and so you can make the argument that it's worth having one of those tight ends so that you don't have to play, you know, that crazy game. But the other side of that is what happens is quarterbacks are pretty consistent. They're always putting up points. Tight ends, you looked at the end of year rankings, Andy, where you say the difference is not so much, but the tight ends after those top three, they are as inconsistent as possible and it's very matchup based. So you want to get those streaming tight end options when they're playing those juicy tight end matchups. And I think you can stream as successfully there. It's a little bit more annoying because there's not as good of a pool of players to choose from.
Mike Wright
It's inconsistent. And here's the thing though, you're talking about all the top three guys. Zach Ertz was not drafted to be a one of the elite tight ends.
Jason Moore
He was by me, fair.
Mike Wright
We liked him to break out. But Gronk hit, Kelsey, hit.
Andy Holloway
Let me illuminate something on the stats real quick.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Andy Holloway
If you do the same examination to the running back position, the gap is 10 points between the top. Between the top three and the next 10 on a PER game basis.
Mike Wright
Okay, so I've just. And what did you say it was for the tight end?
Andy Holloway
4. Yeah, I'm just making the point. That's why you stream. I didn't mean to cut you off. No, no. And finish what you're saying.
Mike Wright
A top three running back is dominant, but I lean with the streaming philosophy, which I'm sure we'll talk about in today's show. Like I said, Ertz was about an 8th round pick. You had Greg Olson, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifferts, Jimmy Graham, which Graham finished. Okay. Martell is Bennett, Delaney, Walker. Those guys were all drafted in front of Zach Ertz. So if there's people out there saying, whoa, you know what? We drafted Zach hurts to be this. People did not. People did not do that last year.
Andy Holloway
If you take the argument to the extent that, man, I just don't want to deal with tight end, I'm just going to grab one of those awesome automatic guys unless they get hurt.
Mike Wright
Right?
Andy Holloway
And then you waste the draft capital and you lose the draft flexibility.
Mike Wright
Recall the names that I said, those guys were all drafted above Ertz. And then here, rounding out your top 10, Evan Ingram, Kyle Rudolph, Jack Doyle, Cameron Brait, Jason Whitten. I didn't say any of those names who were drafted to be a top tight end, but there they are. Because that's just what happens when the ebbs and the flows of a tight end getting a good matchup, pulling in a couple more touchdowns than the other guys, that's how you win at the position.
Andy Holloway
Well, the beauty of today's show is not only are we going to give you our top 10 consensus tight end rankings, but we're also each going to give you a sleeper outside of those ranks that we think could finish there. So if you're looking for that diamond in the rough, we're going to give you some early names that we think have the potential to do it, to get into that category, to be that steal. Because if you steal a tight end late that you're drafting to stream and they become an every week starter. That's when your team can do a lot of damage. Yeah, same thing goes with quarterback position. So I did want to remind everybody, if you haven't listened to the previous shows, we did running backs and wide receivers, our early rankings. Right before that we did free agency winners and losers at the end of March. We have our early mock draft up at from the end of March. Lot of older shows before this one. Very valuable if you haven't listened. If you're joining us for the first time, first of all, welcome. You're not going to regret it.
Jason Moore
Glad you made it past the celery takes.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, we always start with some good veggie takes.
Mike Wright
To be fair, I think we sucked a lot of people in with that. It's. It's not a hot take.
Andy Holloway
It's a relatable. Disgusting to say that celery sucks.
Mike Wright
I mean, you've got 95% of the market with you.
Jason Moore
So they came for the celery takes, they're staying for the fantasy.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I like what, I like where these guys are thinking about.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, celery sucks. I hate celery, too.
Jason Moore
Oh, those, those add ons, though, are delicious. I like ranch and peanut butter.
Andy Holloway
Those add ons, I don't know. Have you ever ordered them at a restaurant as an add on?
Jason Moore
Can I get an add on? I'd like some ketchup, please.
Mike Wright
Add on today.
Andy Holloway
You ordered mustard?
Jason Moore
Darn right I did.
Andy Holloway
For your fries.
Mike Wright
Oh, please.
Jason Moore
We don't have time. All right.
Andy Holloway
We don't have time for that.
Mike Wright
All right.
Andy Holloway
By the way, a couple quick notes. One, we're recording this show a little bit early, so if any incredible breaking news that you're amazed we haven't talked about is not in the show, it is only because of that. And we're doing that. Brooks is heading out of town for a little while and frankly, we need him.
Jason Moore
We will.
Andy Holloway
Frankly, we have to admit, at this point in time, we need Brooks to do the show.
Jason Moore
We will definitely cover everything, whether it's on the next show. Make sure you're following our social media too, because we're. We're not disappearing from existence. No. Yeah, we'll. We'll share our takes on Instagram and Twitter and Facebook. So.
Andy Holloway
But one thing we didn't get to talk about.
Jason Moore
Yes.
Andy Holloway
From a couple shows ago when we were discussing. I don't even know. Jordan Matthews.
Jason Moore
Yes.
Andy Holloway
Has signed a one year contract with the Patriots, which apparently equates in Mike's Mind signing their contract equates to him being a good fantasy player, which unfortunately hasn't been the case for the couple years.
Mike Wright
No, it's.
Andy Holloway
It's simply a validation that you and Bill Belichick are in the same sphere of thought.
Mike Wright
You're darn right. And if you look at my Dynasty squad, everyone who becomes a Patriot, they're just, they're on my roster.
Andy Holloway
You consider yourself a good talent evaluator?
Mike Wright
I'm basically a talent scout for the New England Patriots.
Jason Moore
Quickly, it's a unpaid.
Mike Wright
It's a heavy burden.
Andy Holloway
Unpaid but not invited.
Mike Wright
I had talked about on a previous show that I think that Dorsett is going to get a chance. To me, Jordan Matthews will get the. He will get the chance to be the number three wide receiver, whether or not he can formulate and mold into what the Patriots want to do with their play calling and how they run concepts. I read this fascinating article about the Patriots, how they run just concepts instead of strict plays, and it's really an incredible read. I apologize. I don't know the name of the article, but if Jordan Matthews can get into that, I think that he has the advantage because both, both Philip Dorsett and Kenny Britt can be cut with zero dead cap. We don't know the numbers of Jordan Matthews contract, what is guaranteed to him or not.
Andy Holloway
It's, it's probably, it's probably nothing.
Mike Wright
Yeah, it's roughly very.
Andy Holloway
It's most likely that he's not guaranteed anything. And, and then you have three players that could all be actually valuable because of the Belichick way, the Patriot way.
Mike Wright
Of stealing players from the Bills.
Andy Holloway
And they could all be, they could be cuts, too. I mean, you had, you've had players come in, what, Reggie Wayne was part of camp a few years ago and Tim Tebow was part of camp. They didn't make the final roster. We don't know. And I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I think Jordan Matthews is worse than Dorsett or Brit. I don't. I think he's better than those guys, assuming he's healthy. I think, I think things have been blown out of proportion on my hate for Matthews. I just don't think he's very, he's got a very narrow skill set. That's the, that's the gist of my view of him. So I think it can be done by a lot of different players if you give them volume. But hey, nice piece to add to that after losing coach, if your skill.
Jason Moore
Set is to be a very good Slot receiver. Can you name a better team to play on than the New England Patriots?
Andy Holloway
Yes, I could, because they have Julian Edelman. I don't think that. I mean that that would be the argument against it. Mike, you talked about Matthews being used almost like a tight end in their system when they do that. Used to do the two tight end sets. Maybe it's Gronk and Matthews and Edelman's outside or. I don't know.
Mike Wright
That's.
Andy Holloway
We don't know what they're going to do.
Mike Wright
It'll be very interesting to see what happens.
Andy Holloway
If I have an email out to Belichick to see. I want him to clarify. I'm inviting him on. Yeah, it's open invitation to Bill Belichick.
Jason Moore
Confirmed yet? Not denied yet. But he could be on the show someday.
Andy Holloway
Yes, yes. We'll see what happens.
Mike Wright
All right.
Andy Holloway
But yeah, we'll move on. We'll get into the tight end rankings.
Mike Wright
Hey, before we jump into the tight end rankings, want to thank Fantasy Champs for sponsoring today's show. You got to check out Fantasy Champs for all of your fantasy football gear, all your trophies, rings and belts. And right now, ladies and gentlemen, we talk about the drafts approaching and we know that there's people out there, a good amount of you, that use the Physical Draft Board. Well, you can get your preorder in over at Fantasy champs for the 2018 fantasy draft board. I encourage you to go check it out.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, all the names will be in there. All the. Of course, the whole board. You get, you save money if you use the promo code. Ballers.
Mike Wright
Yeah, that's it. Fantasychamps.com the promo code is Ballers.
Jason Moore
Yeah. And we also want to remind everybody the Ultimate Draft Kit is available for pre order. It's the cheapest price. You can get it all year long if you're unfamiliar. The Ultimate Draft Kit. That is our Magnus Opus, or whatever that word is.
Andy Holloway
That's what it is.
Jason Moore
It's what we pour ourselves into. If you love this show, you want.
Andy Holloway
To help support Magnum Opus Magnum. Not Magnus.
Jason Moore
Magnum. Magnum Opus.
Mike Wright
Isn't Magnus a Very strong Man?
Andy Holloway
A magnum Opus.
Jason Moore
That would also make sense.
Andy Holloway
It's a masterpiece.
Jason Moore
Oh, yes, it is.
Andy Holloway
It's the greatest work of a writer, an artist, a composer.
Jason Moore
But this, you know, we've had this out for several years in a row and there have been great success stories from the Ultimate Draft Kit. Using the tier based methodology, having breakdowns on players and really going into your draft, much better prepared old timey magazines that are outdated and not just outdated. In content, but outdated in actual today's methodology of winning fantasy football. So if you want to win at fantasy football, go toultimate draft kit.com. do it now in pre order. Launches June 1st.
Andy Holloway
Sounds like a plan.
Jason Moore
Breaking news.
Andy Holloway
All right, all right. Time out. Time out. We. Look, some news has broken in the NFL surrounding Dez Bryant, C.J. anderson. And while we had recorded the tight end and quarterback shows ahead of time, Brooks out of town, we wanted to break into that episode right now and just give you our thoughts and comments on the death situation. What was that? Was that you fighting somebody?
Mike Wright
That's my fists breaking in, breaking itself. You ever broke into a podcast?
Jason Moore
I was thinking more like a robber. Like the alarm's going off.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, but it's our show, so we have the code. Oh, okay. So we're gonna. We wanted to jump in real quick, break into the episode, record a little thoughts, comments. We'll get into it in more detail next week. But first, big news.
Mike Wright
I will say this.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
I will say this. The. The fact that you. Andy, this has been a really good, solid week for you because you have thrown a lot of shade on DEZ and CJ Anderson both over the last, I don't know, year or two.
Andy Holloway
The world is listening.
Jason Moore
And both get cut this week. And it's. You know, look, let's talk real, real talk.
Andy Holloway
If the Patriots cut Jordan Matthews today, I would be. It would be the greatest day of my life.
Jason Moore
Three for three, Mike. You've got Dez on Dynasty. I have C.J. anderson on Dynasty. So it's been. It's been rough.
Andy Holloway
That's. That's another reason it's a good week for me. Well, I play against you two.
Mike Wright
I do have devonte Booker.
Jason Moore
So the.
Mike Wright
The tears were. At least right now, they're swept up by.
Andy Holloway
All right, well, let's start there. Trade devontae Booker while you can.
Mike Wright
I would.
Andy Holloway
You're going to get in your. You're going to get in the Kenyan Drake situation here soon with devontae Booker. There's no way they're. They're walking into the season with just Booker.
Mike Wright
I would agree with that. Actually. We had talked about this, I think months ago, because the C.J. anderson cut just with his contract of how much they owed, how they can.
Andy Holloway
Get out for nothing, saving 4.5 million, cutting him.
Mike Wright
We expected him to get cut months ago. Instead, they were like, look, I think this is a jerk move by both. By both teams to have stretched it out for this long. I mean, if you don't want these Players on your team cut them and let them go free agents.
Andy Holloway
I will give the Broncos a pass because they had been soliciting trade offers for CJ Anderson. They had tried to get something for him during this period. They have every right, in my opinion. Oh, they have the right fight through and try to trade him. And they had that trade in principle done with Miami. That didn't happen. But as far as Des goes, I don't know what you, Des, might have been.
Mike Wright
Well, hold on.
Andy Holloway
We're going to start.
Mike Wright
So Devontae Booker. I agree this is probably peak value for Devontae Booker currently on the roster. You have Booker and you have D'Angelo Henderson.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Who also has a lot of value in Dynasty right this moment.
Mike Wright
He could. He's a bit older.
Jason Moore
He's.
Mike Wright
He's. Devontae Booker is actually barely older than, than D'Angelo Henderson, who came into the league a few years after he did. And Henderson is a smaller framed guy than Booker. There was the reports earlier in the off season that the team was determined to make Devontae Booker their lead back. I think going into the season, he still will have that role, but I expect them to draft a running back. So the round they take a running back, that will speak volumes.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
If you see a running back taken in the first three rounds, then that person is likely to push Booker right at the beginning of the season. I would say fourth or later, you.
Andy Holloway
Can start to feel okay.
Mike Wright
Yes. And it might be a time like a full, full time share, but Booker should be the leader.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
He doesn't deserve a pile of shade. I think it is an opportunity for him.
Jason Moore
Obviously with where the Broncos are drafting if the Giants don't take Saquon. They're in prime Barkley territory now.
Mike Wright
Oh, they're. That's. That's what's so crazy about. This is the top five in the draft. I mean, you have like you talked about The Giants at 2. The Broncos, I think, are at 5. These teams, they're. They need quarterbacks of the future. And you are in a very blessed and lucky situation that Case Keenum disagrees. I like Keenum for now. But you still need to draft the future of your team. And why would.
Andy Holloway
That's actually what they're printing on the back of Keenum's jersey for now in place of his name. Just for now.
Mike Wright
You have four net and four now and four now.
Andy Holloway
All right, Des. Des gets cut by the Cowboys quite terse on Twitter. Letting his emotions fly. Of course, now he's expecting. Now he Says he would have accepted a pay cut had they offered one. Which is what I would always say after I'm cut and not offered one.
Mike Wright
Right.
Andy Holloway
To endear myself to, to my teammates. But he came out, he said he wanted to, you know, play them twice a year. But now it seems like the NFC is not interested. And we have talk thus far about Baltimore. We've heard rumors about Houston, we've heard interest from the packers and the Cardinals and let's just talk both sides of the DES deal. Real quick thoughts on what this means for the Dallas offense and what it means for the eventual DES home.
Jason Moore
Yeah, it's, it's not good for the Dallas offense. Say what you will about whether even if you're in the DES Bryant is washed camp, it's not good to lose a strong, good contested catch rate guy. Now this is good news for Alan Hearns value. Alan Hearns is no DES Bryant, but he will be, I believe, the de facto one now and it almost certainly guarantees that they will draft a rookie, you know, Cortland Sutland maybe at high.
Andy Holloway
Team, the first pick.
Jason Moore
And so I, you know, I think that this is, you know, you know, we're going to talk about Dak on Thursday and you know, before hearing this news with Des Bryant gone. But I believe this is bad news for Dak and slightly bad. I did consider when the cut happened, I did consider whether or not to move Ezekiel Elliott. I've got him one spot ahead of David Johnson and should I flip those. I chose to not.
Andy Holloway
I chose to not. I. For me, on the Zeke side, I'm, I'm more confident in Zeke's volume. Volume than I would be. You know, it's not a big effect for me.
Mike Wright
Here's your top three wide receivers as of right now for the Dallas Cowboys. Beasley, Alan Hearns, Terrence Williams and Deontay Thompson. And you can throw Cole Beasley in there if you want.
Andy Holloway
You should. Whitney. No, it's not. It's a strange thing, right? Because is it is perception reality? Is it if DES is washed, which last year production wise didn't do Dak any favors, say Dax, fault, whatever, right? But if he's actually washed and they go draft a guy, then that should be better for Dak, you know, if it's just the name, the perception, if you don't have a potential one on your actual roster. I don't think any of us think like Jason used the word de facto in front of the one on purpose with Alan Hearns. None of us think Alan Hearns has the. The freshly released fifth string Jaguar Alan Hearns does not project as a one for Dak Prescott. So there's concern on that office. There should be.
Mike Wright
And they, they took a bath in terms of dead cap. I mean it was over $8 million a post June 1st. They went with the post June 1st release. So it's $8 million and then they're done. But when you're talking just the contract, it wasn't. It's that much more to just pay him instead of just eating $8 million. But.
Jason Moore
So that's.
Mike Wright
That's how strongly they felt about we got to get Des Bryant off this team.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. There was the cost benefit analysis of attitude versus production. Obviously there was some conflict between Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett and the rest of the. The mines there in Dallas. All this talk of baths and washing. Jason, we're giving you a hint here, man.
Jason Moore
I'm on it.
Mike Wright
So the prime landing spots.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, we're. Give me your ideal favorite spot for Des Bryant to land and still have production value because much like Jimmy Graham, who is not at his peak career wise, he can still have great fantasy value because of the touchdown totals.
Mike Wright
Well, and that's funny that the packers have been floated as one of those possibilities which would be. I think that's a pretty solid fit for DEZ Bryant. They will never run the ball inside the five, ever. If you have Adams, Des and Jimmy Graham, my top pick would be the San Francisco 49ers. I don't think they want to spend the money though. They have so much invested in Pierre Garcon. They just paid Marcus great win to keep him back or to keep him on the team.
Jason Moore
That's.
Mike Wright
So that's my. That's my prime spot with Jimmy Handsome and Kyle Shanahan system. I don't think it's going to happen.
Jason Moore
My prime spot would be Seattle. I think you've got Doug Baldwin in the slot. You don't really have a true outside guy and you have a high but.
Mike Wright
That people want DEZ Bryant in the slot. So.
Jason Moore
I know, but are you on. Des Bryant gets to choose where he goes and he does not want to move to the slot. So he's. Wherever he goes, he's not going to be there. So yeah, I think Seattle would be great. You lost Jimmy Graham, you know, the red zone target. It's a perfect fit for me. But you know, by the time we're going to know real soon someone's going to pick him up, I think it's.
Andy Holloway
Going to be Baltimore and I'm okay with Baltimore. I think I'm okay with Baltimore. I still think. I mean, he comes in, probably usurps Crabtree as the, you know, best value wide receiver there.
Mike Wright
Yeah. And Buffalo could really use him. I don't know if they will pick him up.
Andy Holloway
So if you're listening, New England, you barely have anything sunk into Jordan Matthews. You probably already got him into the facilities. You've seen what he's all about. Let's let him go. Let him go. All right, I guess we're. Are we returning back to the regular show now?
Mike Wright
Let's get back into the tight ends.
Jason Moore
Tight ends, tight ends.
Mike Wright
Everyone in that old, you know, the strongman competition. 50% of them are named.
Andy Holloway
Magnus really did not know that magnum opus like this Jason is always simultaneously, simultaneously genius. And just a bit off of that.
Jason Moore
Like, idiot savant is kind of what I go for.
Andy Holloway
It's like you paint the Mona Lisa, but with a mustache and finger paints. All right, number one, guys, it's Rob Gronkowski, number one on our consensus tight end ranks. Everything here is based on a half point per reception scoring system. We all have him at number one. Consistent. The number one most consistent tight end. Last year he had over 1,000 yards, eight touchdowns, played 14 games, which in his mind is 16.
Mike Wright
Hey, I'd be happy.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
And still finished number one.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, he's had four top, or, I'm sorry, four number one finishes since 2011. Three out of the last four years, he's been number one. The gist is when he's on the field, he's the best tight end. It's an easy case. So where does he go ahead, Mike?
Mike Wright
I said over 50% of his games are what we break down as great games, and no one else is even close.
Andy Holloway
Not just good, great.
Mike Wright
This is like the. An elite tight end finish. No one else comes close to this. For Gronk, the discussion every single year comes down to draft price. Last year, he was coming off of a down year where he missed a vast majority of the season, so he was a little bit cheaper. Now he's the number one tight end. His price will probably boomerang back up to, I would imagine, early second round. I don't think he'll make it back to the first, but early second round. So unfortunately, that becomes a place where I'm not willing to pay. It's the draft price.
Jason Moore
What's fascinating, and I know this is. I know this is really early. Good. ADP is not set, but I feel like Gronk has not gotten the Buzz that he usually gets after one of the number one years. And if you look at the early average draft position, he is right where he was last year, actually a little bit behind where he was last year. And last year he was an extreme value. We, you know, we drafted Gronk in a lot of different places. He is the one tight end right now that I think I will, I will desire to have. If I'm in the middle of the second, I would take Gronk. He is that big of a difference maker. And, you know, so I'm willing there.
Andy Holloway
It's probably, it's at, it's at the late second right now because of the rumors about his possible retirement. Yes, I do agree with Mike, though. I don't think it gets into the first round. Your price for these guys right now is basically you're going to spend a second rounder on Gronk, you're going to spend a third rounder on Kelsey, you're going to spend a fourth rounder on Ertz. And, and so that's where they're going right now. And I would expect it to be right for the regular season. So that's the cost that you're going to, you're going to have to give up a big position player somewhere else. And look, if Gronk slips to the back of the second round and I'm in that draft, I'm okay. I'm going to think about that. Like you said, Jay, I mean, when.
Jason Moore
You give up another big important position player, you have to have basically the. And that's why, like Kelsey will never be drafted by me next year. It just, I'm not giving up a big important positional player for a really good tight end who has a lot of question marks. And even though I love Zach Ertz, he's got question marks too. We'll talk about those two guys. But Bronk to me is the only of the big Three that I will actively try to target.
Andy Holloway
Well, our consensus number two, my number two, Jason's number two, is Zach Ertz. And I have Ertz ahead of Kelsey because there are less variables there for me. Kelsey, while he has been elite longer, is changing quarterbacks and is Ertz changing quarterback? No, he's not.
Mike Wright
To know to start the season?
Andy Holloway
No, he's not.
Mike Wright
So you, you have 100% faith that Carson Wentz is ready to go week one?
Andy Holloway
Yes, I do. I do. Which has been all of the news that we've had as well. It's not just me speculating. I don't really like having to do this again because of the Andrew Luck situation last year at this point.
Mike Wright
Last year, Andrew Luck was playing week one.
Andy Holloway
Correct. But that doesn't mean that Wentz isn't going to.
Mike Wright
Of course it doesn't just say it's it. There are some a little bit more risks.
Andy Holloway
110 targets. Okay, so he's in that same range last year. More than Gronk, less than Kelsey. 110 targets, 74 for 824 and eight touchdowns. Obviously a monster year. Finished the year at number three. And frankly, look, he's. He's the best pass catching weapon that the Eagles have caught, what, almost 20 more passes than Alshon Jeffrey did in that offense. He's reliable, 58 yards a game. Jason, why do you have him at 2 over Kelsey? Same reasons or.
Jason Moore
Yeah, very, very similar reasons. I do expect Carson Wentz to be back. I don't think he's going to be the same mobile quarterback, but if he's in the pocket, his first read was Zach Ertz. The breakout was clear with Ertz. He is an extremely talented pass catcher. A mismatch all over the field. I believe that the target volume, I am supremely confident it will be there with Zach Ertz, whereas with Travis Kelsey, now you have Sammy Watkins added to the mix, which will take some targets away. There's. There's another weapon there that, you know, you're not dealing really with that for the Eagles. I mean, Mike Wallace replacing Torrey Smith does not make me feel like the target share is going to change drastically.
Mike Wright
Here's my. I have Ertz at 3, so I still like him. But this is my devil's advocate, cautionary tale for Zach Hertz. It's all about the touchdowns. And we talk frequently on this show that touchdowns can be. They can rise and fall with a high variance. Zach Ertz played 14 games both in 2017 and 2016. He only had four more targets. Last year he actually had four fewer receptions, barely more yardage, but he went from four to eight touchdowns. And two years ago, people were disappointed with what Zach Ertz did for them, for what they were expecting. And here's where it's somewhat cautionary. I mean, identical stats, but more touchdowns. And now everyone thinks that Zachary is elite. Carson Wentz had a 7 1/2% touchdown rate. That's way too high. The League average is 4.3. Those numbers are going to come down. And Zachary, it's went from in the red zone. 14 targets turning into three touchdowns to 18 targets turning into eight touchdowns. I think Zach Ertz is great. He's still my number three. But I want to at least have the caution out there that I don't think it's locked and loaded that you're getting a top three finish from Ertz.
Andy Holloway
Go ahead, Jay.
Jason Moore
I was going to say this is why, you know, we're debating the value of will Zach Ertz repeat. I want the target volume. I think that's there the same argument with the Sammy Watkins red zone work. And the red zone work.
Mike Wright
I'm going to talk about that.
Jason Moore
The touchdowns that were abnormally high for Kelsey this last year. I think you've got the argument for both of them. These guys. That's why I said even though I obviously I would love to have Kelsey on my team, I'd love to have Zach Ertz. I'm not really targeting either of these guys because I think there's a bigger chance that they underperform the total stats they did last year. But because of what they did last year, their draft position is much higher than what we had in 2017.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, it makes sense. I mean, Kelsey is our three, he's Mike's two. And the same argument can be made for him previous three years. Five. Five. Four touchdowns. Last year it jumped up to eight touchdowns. He loses his quarterback. He actually had about 100 fewer yards last year, but the same beautiful 80 plus receptions. And that's what you got to love about Kelsey. Obviously you have stability with the head coach. They know what Travis Kelsey can be. I'm not trying to overemphasize the quarterback.
Jason Moore
Change, but now, Andy, I am a little surprised that Travis kelsey is your three considering Pat Mahomes, you have slated for 82 touchdowns this year.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Per game.
Jason Moore
Top two quarterback Pat Mahomes, your new man crush.
Andy Holloway
I like Katmahomes potential gentlemen.
Jason Moore
Yeah, he. I mean we need to remember, excited.
Andy Holloway
To watch that offense.
Jason Moore
For all intents and purposes, he is a rookie.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
On the field.
Mike Wright
And so my argument against Travis Kelsey is if you pull out your podcast.
Andy Holloway
App against him just, just to make.
Mike Wright
He's my number two.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
But I'm just saying he was identical. Just like Ertz.
Jason Moore
His.
Mike Wright
His stats, his yardage and receptions were almost identical. Except he had four touchdowns two year ago, two years ago and eight last year.
Andy Holloway
So let's distill this then for the listener because the message here is that you have regression points but possible for Ertz and Kelsey.
Mike Wright
Sure.
Andy Holloway
You can 100% bank on rob Gronkowski to be a high touchdown guy because that's what he Does, Yeah. Therefore, it might be better to wait and to value a guy like Ingram or Henry or somebody else on this list. And so, Kelsey, we have him at 3. You've heard the arguments for both guys. Let's talk about Evan Ingram. Let's talk about some more of these interesting tight ends. I think Ingram is a gamble in the sense that, look, you are either banking on him to repeat what he did last year on an offense that will get Odell Beckham Jr. Back, which should have a healthy Sterling shepherd for the year, likely to add some more offensive pieces. Last year he was the. What was he, fourth best tight end last year?
Jason Moore
Yeah, I think he was.
Andy Holloway
Depends on score consistency. Ranked number four, 722 yards, six touchdowns, 115 targets. Can he repeat what he did and does he belong here at number four?
Jason Moore
So he's my number five. I don't quite have him repeating his performance from last year. I remember early in the off season wanting to. We had a segment where we were talking about regression or watch out for these and I had Evan Ingram as kind of my potential bust. Like, look, I know he had the unbelievable, the best rookie tight end season for fantasy since Jeremy Shockey. Even better. And you know he's great. All that jazz. He came out to do this. But I was going to make the case against him because like you said, he lost Oto Beckham, he lost Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard for part of the year. He was a huge center of the offense. But as I looked more and more, he was a rookie. He's going to take a step forward. As a sophomore. His catch rate was actually atrocious.
Mike Wright
It was real bad.
Jason Moore
I mean, really bad. So if, if his targets go down or stay near the same, but he gets better at, you know, his craft at this tight end roll and catches a higher percentage of the balls. Especially when you have Odell Beckham taking defense away. I think he'll be near the same. I mean, I've got him five. I'm, I'm pretty confident in his ability to be a quality tight end. But this is where, and you know, we've said this for the last several years, I can't wait for the year that it changes. And the tight end landscape is full of awesome studs. But right now it's.
Andy Holloway
It could be that, though. I mean, you could have that with some of the names in this year's group. You don't just have the elder statesman. You have guys like Jordan Reed that are going to be way down the list just because of injury. But he could even actually perform.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Since 19.
Andy Holloway
Are you talking about like coming into a season where you know that like seven, eight guys are going to do it?
Jason Moore
Yeah. I guess my point is just, I don't know, like all the middle tier. All the middle tier guys, I just don't care enough about them. I'm pretty much a Gronk or I'm double digit round drafting.
Mike Wright
Since 1992, the only rookie tight end with 100 plus targets, the aforementioned Jeremy Shockey and Evan Ingram, and the games where he played with Odell Beckham, he averaged about half a target, fewer or less. I don't know the grammar for that, but he essentially was getting the exact same target share when Beckham was on the field compared to the rest of the season.
Andy Holloway
When you look at catch percentage, do you worry about Eli?
Mike Wright
Maybe. Maybe you can attribute that to him. But yeah, his catch percentage was 55.7, which.
Jason Moore
How much?
Mike Wright
Oh, my goodness.
Jason Moore
Hit me, Hit me. Yeah. I can't believe I had to call you out on that mic because there.
Andy Holloway
Was a decimal involved.
Mike Wright
VO is 55. Yeah.7.
Jason Moore
55.7. There you go.
Mike Wright
But. But that's. And that's tight ends with over 100 targets. There were six players. His was by far the lowest. Second lowest was Gronk at 65. So there's. You can look at it either way of saying it was. It was very poor performance or with like Jason was saying, is he going to get better? He was a first round pick. They're going to continue to.
Andy Holloway
I don't think I want to spend a late fourth, early fifth on Evan Ingram.
Mike Wright
Yeah, that's.
Jason Moore
No, that's exactly the point. That's rough. And I don't want to keep repeating this for every player, but basically. But I will. Everyone we're going to talk about. Unless you're getting to like the seventh, eighth round. If I love you, I'm not drafting you at tight end. I'm just not.
Andy Holloway
And I think it's a waste of a show. Well, but why are we even here?
Jason Moore
It's not a waste of a show. It's just like going through rookies, which we'll do here pretty soon. You need to understand these players for the rest of the season because these guys will be dropped and traded and all that jazz. All right, but in the draft. Don't. Don't do it.
Andy Holloway
All right? Don't draft our number five tight end, Hunter Henry.
Jason Moore
Wait.
Mike Wright
Oh, Jason will disagree.
Andy Holloway
Sorry. Jason has it.
Mike Wright
Jason's ready.
Andy Holloway
Four, five, six.
Jason Moore
He drops to the seventh he's ready for goose.
Andy Holloway
Oh my gosh, do I have him? Here he is. That was a painful week.
Mike Wright
Weeks. Weeks one and three.
Andy Holloway
One and three. Yeah, yeah.
Mike Wright
Nothing.
Andy Holloway
I just remember squadoosh. I remember the feeling. Didn't you lose by half a point one of those weeks?
Mike Wright
Yes. I needed one catch for seven yards in week one.
Andy Holloway
There's a reason that Mike's the lowest on Hunter Henry. All right, 14 games last year, 45 receptions, 579 yards, four touchdowns. Pedestrian, pedestrian numbers. Tight end. 14 on the year. This is all about, I think, the torch being passed, right? The baton being passed. This is don't pass the torch. It's very hot.
Jason Moore
This is about don't pass that. It's not just about that. It's Hunter Henry being another year into the system and Antonio Gates, the Hall of Famer being gone. Antonio Gates, look, he was a decrepit old man on the field last year.
Andy Holloway
Come on.
Jason Moore
He was though. I mean he didn't.
Andy Holloway
Decrepit old men don't catch touchdowns for my knowledge.
Jason Moore
Sure he had. Put it this way. Antonio Gates had 11 red zone targets which converted into only three touchdowns. He had 500 snapshots. Antonio Gates was very involved. If Hunter Henry takes over the predominant pass catching tight end role that has always been with Philip Rivers and always he. He also has the talent and skill.
Andy Holloway
Because he's always had Antonio Gatesonio Gates.
Jason Moore
Yeah, but, but Hunter Henry was a highly touted. I mean he. I'm not saying Hunter Henry is Antonio Gates. It's going to be a Hall of Famer. But I'm also saying it's not like, you know, I'm not sitting here going, well, you know, the next guy up who was drafted in the fifth round has an opportunity and Philip Rivers goes to him. No, Hunter Henry was a super highly touted, highly drafted second round draft pick. Yeah, I mean he was talked about as a first round draft pick. Fell to the second.
Andy Holloway
He wasn't happy. He wasn't happy with you saying second.
Mike Wright
Which sounds like they weren't very pleased with the first round chatter. Then if he dropped all the way.
Andy Holloway
To the second like a bum is pathetic. Look, this is one of the hardest things in fantasy football is to imbue another player with the responsibility of replacing a Hall of Famer. We tried to do this with various tight ends in New England to replace Aaron Hernandez. That didn't come to fruition, but they weren't high pedigree guys. And to Jason's point, that does not mean, look, year 134 receptions last year, 45. Do we think he's going to be in the 60 reception range? And you're hoping for double digit touchdowns? Eight touchdowns. You'll be really happy if that happened.
Jason Moore
Yes, I will.
Andy Holloway
He's just 23, so I like him. I do like him because I like the offense.
Jason Moore
It takes tight ends a couple of years. You're disappointed in Hunter Henry, but you shouldn't be because he's only played two years at tight end. Usually you don't break out within those first two years. The fact that he has.
Mike Wright
Evan Ingram disagrees. Jason.
Jason Moore
I said usually. The fact that he has disappointed ownership should show how good he was because his expectation was probably too high. Give him that opportunity. And look, every single year you look at the fantasy finish of people and the ranks change. I'm calling for a change for Hunter Henry. He's going to be great. And if he is dropping to the seventh or eighth round, this is the first tight end that.
Andy Holloway
Is there any chance I want to.
Jason Moore
I want to take a swing at a guy who could finish top five and be consistent. That's Hunter Henry.
Andy Holloway
Is there any chance they. They do Antonio a solid because he says he still wants to play and he's a free agent and they could bring him back in a one year deal and make you just cry. Weep.
Jason Moore
Oh, yeah.
Andy Holloway
I think it could still happen. I hate to say it.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
No, I did sign Virgil Green. So if you want to be comforted by the fact that they're at least making plans without him. But I don't know, that's.
Mike Wright
To me, that's actually. That's a big check mark for Hunter Henry.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Because Virgil Green is a block. He's a blocking tight end. Enough of.
Andy Holloway
Jason is blocking.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I gotta show. I gotta show.
Mike Wright
You look like your white dad trying to raise the roof.
Jason Moore
I'm raising the walls.
Andy Holloway
Hey, push it out from the 20s.
Mike Wright
Apparently the roaring 20s last year when Hunter Henry was the goose, it's because he had to stay in and block. He couldn't get out and run these routes. So that's a check mark.
Jason Moore
All right, tight end number three next year.
Andy Holloway
All right, number six on our list, Mike's number five. Jason six. My seven is a player that. Look, here's a little behind the scenes. He. His picture may or may not be on the bathroom door of one of our two restrooms here at the studio. You want to talk about Jason's fault.
Mike Wright
Fantasy burns where when a player just absolutely destroys you and tanks your season and you feel that Sting and we talk about on this show, you need.
Andy Holloway
Sometimes you buy a canvas of that player next year.
Mike Wright
You got to be forgiving. Well, Jason took out his vengeance.
Jason Moore
I was forgiving with him as far as fantasy goes, but not as far as commemoration. You know, I needed that bathroom with a large Greg Olson poster. I can't.
Mike Wright
How are you gonna do Olson so dirty?
Jason Moore
I know. Well, what's crazy is we have Jeff.
Andy Holloway
Fisher on one bathroom, we have Greg Olson on the other and it's. And when somebody needs to do their business and it's like I'm heading to Olson or I'm heading to Fisher.
Jason Moore
The year prior in the league of record, I won a championship with Greg Olson. And then the following year, Greg Olson, if you don't remember, this was two years ago was. I mean, he was unfathomably great the first half of that season. He was Gronkian and I traded for him to get back to back titles and he was sighted 18.
Andy Holloway
He was so good that he still finished the year the third best tight end.
Jason Moore
That's exactly how good he was the first half that I didn't have him for.
Andy Holloway
All right, so last year, injury, Marge season, Olson getting older, changes to that offense he has. He had finished in the top seven for five straight years.
Mike Wright
Three straight years of 1,000 yards, an incredible feat for a tight end. And I have Greg Olson.
Andy Holloway
Speaking of feet, I love it.
Mike Wright
Yeah, he did have the broken foot. I'm giving Greg Olson a pass and I'm choosing to believe that he can still put up those the thousand yard type of A season. From 2012 through 2016, his catch rate was 65% even with Cam Newton throwing the ball. Great catch rate. Last year it dropped all the way to 44.7 on 38 targets, only 17 receptions. I'm wiping the slate clean for Greg Olson and choosing to believe that he will still be one of the premier fantasy tight ends once again. I don't know what his cost will be because he burned so many people. The foot is still a situation where frequently with the injury guys have to go in for a second surgery. They're saying he doesn't need it as of now, but in the season that could suck and could change.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I mean that second surgery is usually something that happens in season, in game crap. Yep, I'm going to need that second surgery. That surgery requires a redo about 20% of the time, which is a really large number. One in five require that second surgery. He has not had it yet, but if he is on the field and playing. If he doesn't need that surgery, he is going to be more consistent than most of these guys we've talked about already. I would bank on him. If every single one of these tight ends is playing 16 games and they're healthy, I'd take him over Evan Ingram. I would.
Mike Wright
Really.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Upside of.
Jason Moore
Because I believe the consistency is important at the tight end position. Yeah.
Andy Holloway
They didn't add anything in the pass catcher department to make me think Olsen's not going to be heavily involved.
Mike Wright
Right.
Jason Moore
And so the reality is when I'm outside of the top three tight ends, I expect. I'm hoping that I nailed it. I'm hoping that I got Hunter Henry in the eighth and he's great and consistent. But I am always expecting to drop this guy at some point. So if he gets hurt and re injured, then so what I drop in my stream. But until that point, he will be a quality tight end. So I don't mind Greg Olson. I hope he continues to slide.
Andy Holloway
Speaking of health, the salary at the tight end position has to be number seven on our list. Delaney Walker.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I think that's a little too low brow for Delaney Walker.
Jason Moore
But he's like not.
Andy Holloway
He's not flashy.
Mike Wright
He's bland.
Andy Holloway
He's not. Is celery not the most bland? You're describing celery. Oh, celery's bad, but celery's bland as can be.
Jason Moore
But celery also serves a purpose.
Andy Holloway
Is celery bland?
Jason Moore
Yes. Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Thank you.
Jason Moore
And it serves a purpose. I mean, you're eating those hot ones.
Andy Holloway
It carries raisins and peanut butter.
Jason Moore
Ants on a log, my man.
Andy Holloway
That's right.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
I mean, fine, we'll put some peanut butter on the celery and then we'll.
Jason Moore
Call it really diverse as well. I mean, you could put that in adult beverages. You see it in children's snacks. You see it for hot wings. Like, here's the.
Andy Holloway
Here's the problem.
Jason Moore
I don't know how you overachiever.
Andy Holloway
You talked about how many elite tight end games that Gronk had. You don't get that with Delaney Walker.
Mike Wright
Well, you didn't.
Jason Moore
You got zero.
Andy Holloway
You didn't and you won't and you likely don't. Look, three touchdowns, 111 targets is what you love. 74 receptions. He was reliable. He was a check down. He was a. He's been great. I mean, I'm sure people will take that as great disrespect to Colin Sulry. All I'm saying is that you kind of give what you get. You want. You want to get somebody that is consistent. If he falls down the draft boards and not think about your position, it's kind of like Whitten a couple years ago. Yeah, he's like Whitten before he got even older.
Jason Moore
The only problem is that Whitten is a giant beast of a man who I think that helps him play into later age. Whereas Delaney Walker's, you know, Delaney's a big boy. Delaney's six foot, which is very small.
Andy Holloway
He's a big boy.
Jason Moore
He is. He's 248. So he's.
Mike Wright
Delaney Walker is only six feet tall. You need to verify your source.
Jason Moore
All right, let me check.
Mike Wright
Tight end that is six feet tall.
Jason Moore
Okay, I've got a different one that's six one, but this also shorts him.
Andy Holloway
Six two on NFL dot com. We're moving up.
Mike Wright
Oh, but who was the player?
Jason Moore
He's always been a shorter.
Mike Wright
You got a Cameron artist pain situation.
Jason Moore
Yeah, Delaney Walker's always been.
Andy Holloway
Well, he was wearing his lifts for this.
Jason Moore
No lifts. You know, he's never been the prototypical 6, 4, 2, 4. And my point is he is getting up there.
Andy Holloway
He's going to be 34.
Jason Moore
34 to play this season.
Andy Holloway
I mean, people that are 34 are pathetic. And I just turned 34.
Jason Moore
Yes, you did.
Mike Wright
Here's the thing with Delaney Walker. The stats were practically identical. Similar to Kelsey and ertz. He had 807 yards last year. The year before, 800. But he dropped from seven to three touchdowns. But you have to look at his quarterback, Marcus Mariota. 26 touchdowns down to 13. A 5.8 touchdown percentage down to 2.9.
Andy Holloway
So do you like Delaney or do you not like Delaney? I like. They have Joni Smith.
Jason Moore
Yes. Yes.
Andy Holloway
Delaney Walker is the first official member of my will not draft list. You want to know why? Because he's a fifth round pick and I can draft. I can draft Hunter, Henry, Jordan Reed, Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Ivert, any of those guys way behind him.
Jason Moore
And let me just say this because this is like a do it for me foot clan moment. Foot clan. If you're in a dynasty league and you have, you know, you're up there in age at the tight end position, you're like, man, who could I target? Go trade for Jonah Smith. Because I've really wanted to. I believe that Jonah Smith is going to take over the Delaney Walker role and excel at it with Mariota. But the guy in our league loves him and so I can't get him so do it for me. You go trade for him and you say, I got him, Jay. And I'll say, congratulations, I think we.
Mike Wright
Got one more year.
Jason Moore
Yeah. No, I agree. I don't necessarily think this is the year.
Mike Wright
That's why I just.
Jason Moore
Dynasty Delaney.
Mike Wright
Walker has generally been on my do not draft list because he's usually cost too much. And I don't see that top three finish. Basically what Jason was talking about, swinging for the fences. But if Walker. I thought this would be the year that Walker would drop in adp. So we will see if he's actually going. People are still buying in at last year's price then. No way.
Andy Holloway
All right, we got to move on to number eight, the slightly less handsome Jimmy G. Jimmy Graham himself coming in as my number six. Jason's eight, Mike's 11. I know we've been down. Been down some dangerous roads with Green Bay Packer tight ends, but Jimmy Graham on a limited year with Seattle in terms of lining up for offensive snaps and practice, which was only 68% of the time.
Jason Moore
Zero percent of the time.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Look, he had 10 touchdowns. He is great around the goal line. Mike, we just talked about devonte Adams, the big sell. Every time I want to doubt devonte Adams, you go, Aaron Rodgers is going to throw for 35 touchdowns. Where do they go? Well, I don't think 30 of them are going to Devonte Adams. I don't think 20 are. I think. I think Jimmy Graham is going to have a big red zone role. He's going to be somebody that you can count on to score more often than not in each and every game.
Jason Moore
The problem with a tight end like that, though I agree. At the end of the year, Jimmy Graham will be a top seven eight tight end for sure because of touchdowns. The problem is, will you want him on your team when he is the type of guy where you're going to start him every week and if he doesn't get a touchdown, he'll probably end up with worthless stats.
Andy Holloway
I don't know if that's true. You know that's going to be the case for.
Mike Wright
I 100% think that Jimmy Graham is.
Andy Holloway
You don't think another year of getting into better shape?
Mike Wright
No, I think it's another year of his body breaking down. He went from.
Andy Holloway
It's crazy though, because he's the fourth best tight end two years ago. Fourth best last year.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
But now he gets Aaron Rodgers.
Mike Wright
He dropped from 14.2 yards per reception down to 9.1, the lowest of his career. He went from 57 yards a game down to 32 and a half. Lowest since his rookie season. His catch percentage went way down. And Russell Wilson's a fine quarterback. It was the red zone touchdowns that saved him. But will that be enough for him in Green Bay? You had. I know people like Richard Rogers. Yeah, Richard Rogers had eight touchdowns. He finishes the tight end 10 that year. He wasn't even. He was not a top five guy with eight touchdowns.
Andy Holloway
Richard Rogers is still finishing out one of his routes from two years ago. He is not what Jimmy Graham is athletically. I think what the best value in the draft might be. Jimmy, because you can spend a seventh rounder, guarantee yourself some like week to week consistency. Delaney Walker level play with actual upside of Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Graham's athleticism.
Jason Moore
I think Jimmy Graham. Jimmy Graham will get overdrafted this year.
Mike Wright
The best.
Jason Moore
The reason he will get overdrafted is because he's got a big name now. He's got Aaron Rodgers.
Andy Holloway
7Th round is a problem for him though.
Jason Moore
I think that's some average in your league. Someone's taking them in a fifth because they're a Packers fan who believes in Aaron Rodgers.
Andy Holloway
And it only in the fifth, that's for sure.
Jason Moore
It only takes one guy but he's.
Andy Holloway
6, 7 Jason and you're all height based.
Mike Wright
The best fantasy finish for a tight end who played for Aaron Rodgers was Jermichael Finley at the tight end six.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
In 2011. And that was a 24 year old Jermichael Finley.
Andy Holloway
Not a 31 year old.
Mike Wright
31 year old who had lost his kneecap a couple years ago.
Andy Holloway
Just found it.
Mike Wright
Jimmy Graham. No, thank you.
Andy Holloway
All right. Tied for nine, Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed.
Jason Moore
Too low for Kyle.
Andy Holloway
Whatever. I don't want to have another Kyle Rudolph battle. But Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed, kind of polar opposites when it comes to consistency. Look, you look at Kyle Rudolph. Sixteen games played. Sixteen games played. 16 games played. You know he's going to be out there. Last year regressed from that number two finish to number seven. Eight touchdowns though. Got to love that. 57 for 532. He doesn't catch passes for yardage. No, we know that about him.
Mike Wright
Above 50 yards twice.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, he's a red zone. Above 50 yards two times.
Mike Wright
Two times, yeah.
Andy Holloway
So that you want to make that case about. You just made it about Jimmy. Yes, it applies for Kyle Rudolph for sure.
Jason Moore
However, however that, that is far more of a. An issue. I think that was a case keenum thing in the sense that he was, you know, a yard lower per reception than the year prior when he had 840 yards. You've got a tight. A tight end two finish, a tight end seven finish. And now he gets your boy, Kirk Cousins. I mean, he is my boy.
Andy Holloway
This is, this is his whole. But we have seven years now. I have to take the same argument about Kyle Rudolph. He has. A player like Jordan Matthews with an exact certain skill set is not going to change.
Jason Moore
Well, My point is 9.3 yards per reception was a last year thing. If you look at the majority of his career, he's 9.8 for his career. He's 10.1 if you're taking his rookie year.
Andy Holloway
No, I'm talking three different years.
Jason Moore
2013 before last year. So a four year sample of him being in the prime of his career, he's 10.1 yards per reception and he.
Mike Wright
Dropped down to what?
Jason Moore
9, 9.3.
Mike Wright
Okay, so he'll get to 60 yards per game twice.
Jason Moore
60. What's crazy here is that sounds terrible, but I like yards.
Andy Holloway
Do you ever talk about a player and you have no, you have no clue why you'd be arguing the yards per catch between 9.3 and 10.1? Why does that matter? It doesn't matter.
Mike Wright
One number is higher. This better.
Jason Moore
Thank you, Mike.
Mike Wright
I don't dislike Kyle Rudolph. I would rather wait and draft Kyle Rudolph than Jimmy Graham. 100 times out of 100 you want.
Andy Holloway
To wait and draft your guy. Jordan Reed, number eight on Mike's list, 10 on Jason's, 11th on mine. Better have a backup plan.
Jason Moore
Oh, yes.
Andy Holloway
And I'm talking to you Redskins.
Mike Wright
You need an emergency parachute.
Andy Holloway
But look, we've talked about it. He's elite. He's an elite receiver. Two years ago when he played three. Three years ago when he played 14 games.
Jason Moore
Still a top 10 tight end. Yeah, three years ago he was the second ranked tight end, but last year was.
Andy Holloway
So this is an upside pick.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I mean, this is a swing for the fences. Take a pick late, that could finish. I mean, most of the guys that you're taking late, they don't have top three potential. Jordan Reed has it at least. I don't think it's going to be actualized. And so you can just. If you want to take Jordan Reed off your draft board, I got no qualms about that. But this is a risk versus reward, a type of draft guy where if you want to swing for the fences with your last pick and know that the odds are probably against you, but the upside is definitely worth taking that gamble. I got no problem with that and that's pretty much how I look at tight end. So I'll have some shares of Jordan Reed for one week.
Andy Holloway
Two years ago he was the fourth round pick. One year ago he was a fifth round pick. Now he's a seventh round pick. Ooh, that's that, that kind of tells you the trajectory of Jordan Reed. But the, the promise of a player like Reed is what tempts player. You know, do I want to go get Kyle Rudolph or do I want to spend the same type of pick on Jordan Reed with the potential of him being a top five guy? That'll depend on your team's makeup a lot of the times. Do you have other risky players on your team, Injury concerns or are you pretty solid and can take a take a shot on reed? All right, 11 and 12 on our tight end rankings. Trey Burton and Tyler Iford. I think some people surprised that these two names are in the top 12. We snuck him in but Trey Burton is my nine, Mike's nine, Jason's 12th and you're welcome. Look, you, you've given trubisky weapons. Trey Burton is going to be in the Kelsey role. That's already come out. Nagy's talked about how he's going to use Burton. So you are certainly projecting here. But in the two games in which Zach Ertz was unable to play, Burton was the tight end seven and the tight end number one.
Mike Wright
The ability is there, the athleticism is there, the usage. That's the, that's the huge question. But you give him that contract, you've already come out and say we're going to put him in the Travis Kelce role. And that Travis Kelce role, while Matt Nagy was the play caller for the Kansas City Chiefs turned into nine targets a game.
Andy Holloway
So yes, please also comparisons to Delaney Walker when he was with San Francisco and playing second fiddle to Vernon Davis and then Burton doing the same thing to Zach Ertz and then getting that contract to go out and show people, you know, he got paid to be a great tight end, to be a pass catching tight end. I hope, I hope we can do it. I'd love to see it.
Jason Moore
Yeah. And I would just say this. It's not just the two game sample from last year without Ertz. You go back three years, you got five games without Ertz and he averages over 12 points PPR per game. If you look at the last two years, he's 14 points a game PPR without Ertz. You're exactly right. I've always loved Trey. Trey Burton My ranking of him at 12 is not because of my belief in him. It's a little bit more worry about Trubisky and I want to see, I want to see preseason. He's going to be a guy. And by he, I'm probably speaking to everybody on the Bears where I'm going to be watching Universal.
Mike Wright
Universal.
Jason Moore
I mean, this preseason I'm going to be so focused on are they clicking? Do they look like they're, you know, getting it done and moving the ball and getting guys in space? And that Trubisky is understanding it because the upside is certainly there for, I mean, if he finishes, you know, I wouldn't be surprised at all.
Andy Holloway
4 years, $32 million contract, 18 guaranteed. Signed to be a big time tight end of Shaheen.
Mike Wright
I know we're almost an hour into the tight end show, but this is finally the first tight end I'm actually excited to draft.
Andy Holloway
Tyler Iford?
Mike Wright
No, Trey Burton.
Andy Holloway
Oh, okay. I didn't think you were that excited about Tyler. If it.
Mike Wright
I mean, I'll take him, but if.
Andy Holloway
It stays home, stays in Cincinnati. He is on the cusp of the tight end two area here. We all got him in about the same range and we're just hoping he returns. I mean, he's still young.
Jason Moore
This is Jordan Reed light. He's a talented guy who's got high touchdown potential, high usage history, 27 years old and. But he's probably, you know, going to miss games and be injured. The nice thing though is, I mean, if they both cost, if they both costed the same, I'd definitely lean Jordan Reed's route. But with Tyler Ifert, he might go undrafted in a lot of leagues this year. So when you have him with your last positional pick and you swing for the fences there, I'd rather do that than. I'm never spending a seventh for Jordan Reed right now.
Mike Wright
The last three years, he's only played in 23 games. That's very low. In those 23 games though, 18 touchdowns. Yeah, that's insane.
Andy Holloway
There was a time we were talking about him in the same vein as Gronk and he was producing touchdowns at a higher rate than Gronk during his heyday.
Mike Wright
And Tyler Croft in that system as the backup tight end put up seven touchdowns last year.
Jason Moore
Man.
Andy Holloway
Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton missed Eifert.
Mike Wright
Yes, big time.
Andy Holloway
As did A.J. green. Just for. I mean, they needed those guys. All right, Gronkowski, Ertz, Kelsey Ingram, Henry Olson, Walker, Graham Rudolph, Reed, Burton Eifert. All of our early season rankings will make their way to the website, the fantasy footballers.com pretty soon. We've got the NFL draft coming up here just days away. And let's finish with this name a sleeper tight end that we didn't mention in that top 12 that you think could actually finish in the top 10.
Jason Moore
I'll kick it off here with Mr. Kittle and Pitts himself. George.
Mike Wright
I like this one.
Jason Moore
I like it. George Kittle, 6, 4, 2, 47 Coming into his sophomore year. A tight end that a lot of people liked coming out of college. He now has the good looking, the handsome one. He has the handsome one throwing him the ball. San Francisco kind of struck out on adding that extra powerful wide receiver that everyone expected early the one note I'm going to.
Mike Wright
They also struck out on Trey Burton. There was a lot of whispers from the bushes they wanted that. So that's my only hesitation with Kittle is that they wanted to replace him with Trey Burton.
Andy Holloway
Do you worry about Garrett Selleck at all?
Jason Moore
No, I'm not.
Andy Holloway
Sella caught. I think he caught quite a few passes last year.
Mike Wright
He did.
Jason Moore
He actually stepped it up a little bit and. But I think them going after Trey Burton shows that the tight end position matters for this scheme in this offense and they're discontent. It could be, it could be. But I mean we're talking about a guy who's going late that could finish top 10 if that role matters and Jimmy Garoppolo, you know, involves him in it. Kittle could take a sophomore step up.
Andy Holloway
I think a lot of people like, like Kittle and what he brings to.
Jason Moore
The table and you can say Kittle and Bits.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, great nickname. I'm going to go with David and Joku. I'm actually going to take the shot at David and Joku the fist. Yeah, your pineapple. Pineapple man from previous shows. The right player on the wrong team. But David Njoku actually might be on the right team now. Maybe Tyrod Taylor brings a little of that Charles Clay magic to Cleveland and uses in Joku and that skill set to be all that he can be to take a page from the army. David and Joku is my sleeper tight end that could finish in the top 10.
Mike Wright
And I've mentioned his name as you should have picked him up as a dynasty sleeper. But I want to mention it here for redraft sleeper and that's Luke Wilson.
Jason Moore
Wilson.
Mike Wright
Detroit picked him up. He's on a prove it deal. But the Detroit Lions lost Eric Ebron and Darren Fells. 112 target gets seven touchdowns. Luke Wilson is 65251. He is bigger and faster than Eric Ebron.
Jason Moore
Shut your mouth. I know. I'm just saying.
Mike Wright
I understand. I understand, Jason, that when you see the athletic measurables of Luke Wilson, you cannot believe it. But he's going to get a chance. We've seen huge plays from him a few years ago before the Seahawks picked up Jimmy Graham. Maybe this is his. His chance to break out from the shadow and I like him as a sleeper.
Andy Holloway
Can he. If he catches more than 50 passes this year, Mike, will he earn an extra L for his name? Could he get a third L?
Mike Wright
You know what?
Andy Holloway
Because that would be Will.
Mike Wright
No, no, no, no. I'm going. You know how they have the. The case when you go to the baseball game? They put up the case. Every touchdown Luke Wilson gets, you're adding an L. I'm slapping an L in.
Andy Holloway
In the pronunciation for the remainder of the year.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
Nice.
Andy Holloway
See, that just makes sense. That's why people come to this show, for things that just plain make sense. All right, that is it for today's episode. Thank you very much for tuning in, subscribing, listening, supporting the show@jointhefoot.com and please check out draft.com ballers. You need to play basketball. You need to get that ADP Luke Wilson going. And draft Luke Wilson.
Mike Wright
Goodbye.
Andy Holloway
Bye.
Jason Moore
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the ffballers.
Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: Fantasy Football 2018 - Early TE Rankings
Release Date: April 17, 2018
In the April 17, 2018 episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into their early tight end (TE) rankings for the 2018 fantasy football season. Balancing humor with in-depth analysis, the trio provides listeners with informed opinions, strategic advice, and insights to help dominate their fantasy leagues.
Rob Gronkowski tops the consensus tight end rankings unanimously among the hosts. Despite concerns about his draft price due to rumors of retirement, Gronk remains a high-value pick.
Andy Holloway highlights Gronk’s consistency:
“When he's on the field, he's the best tight end. It's an easy case." (25:17)
Mike Wright emphasizes Gronk's elite performance:
“Over 50% of his games are what we break down as great games, and no one else is even close." (26:04)
Conclusion: Gronk is a must-have for his reliability and high touchdown potential, though his draft cost has risen to an early second-round selection.
Zach Ertz secures the second spot, benefiting from a stable quarterback situation and substantial target volume.
Andy Holloway notes Ertz's solid stats:
“He had 110 targets, 74 receptions for 824 yards, and eight touchdowns last year." (28:01)
Jason Moore expresses cautious optimism:
“I believe the target volume is supremely confident it will be there with Zach Ertz." (29:46)
Conclusion: Ertz is favored for his dependable production and role in a consistent offense, making him a safer second-round pick.
Travis Kelce remains one of the top tight ends, known for his high target share and red-zone effectiveness.
Jason Moore discusses Kelce’s value despite potential shifts in team dynamics:
“Travis Kelce is my number three because he's consistent and gets plenty of targets." (28:27)
Mike Wright concurs on Kelce's elite status:
“Yes, he’s my number two.” (33:15)
Conclusion: Kelce continues to be a top-tier TE choice, offering reliability and substantial upside in any fantasy lineup.
Evan Ingram is viewed as a high-risk, high-reward option, contingent on his development and quarterback performance.
Jason Moore warns about Ingram's inconsistency:
“His catch rate was actually atrocious.” (35:39)
Mike Wright questions Ingram's reliability:
“With only six tight ends having over 100 targets, his low catch rate is a concern." (37:58)
Conclusion: While Ingram has potential to replicate his impressive rookie season, his inconsistent performance makes him a gamble better suited for later rounds.
Hunter Henry is positioned as the successor to veterans like Antonio Gates, offering consistency and growth potential.
Jason Moore praises Henry's opportunity:
“This is the first tight end that is going to be great and consistent." (41:38)
Andy Holloway emphasizes Henry’s role in a revamped offense:
“Hunter Henry has the talent and skill to take over the pass-catching role." (39:58)
Conclusion: As a highly touted second-round pick, Henry is seen as a promising TE who can deliver consistent performance and solidify his position in the offensive scheme.
Greg Olsen remains a reliable option, despite concerns about his age and injury history.
Mike Wright highlights Olsen’s past performance:
“From 2012 through 2016, his catch rate was 65% even with Cam Newton throwing the ball." (44:48)
Jason Moore supports Olsen’s potential return to form:
“If he doesn’t need that surgery, he is going to be more consistent than most of these guys we've talked about already." (46:16)
Conclusion: Olsen offers veteran reliability and high target potential, making him a valuable pick for those willing to overlook his age and injury risks.
Delaney Walker is critiqued for his declining performance and age, positioning him lower in the rankings.
Andy Holloway dismisses Walker’s draft appeal:
“Delaney Walker is the first official member of my will not draft list." (49:58)
Mike Wright echoes concerns about Walker's consistency and age:
“Walker has generally been on my do not draft list because he's usually cost too much." (50:51)
Conclusion: Walker is deemed a risky pick due to his age, inconsistent production, and lower upside compared to other TEs.
Jimmy Graham is lauded for his red-zone prowess but criticized for inconsistent week-to-week performance.
Andy Holloway praises Graham’s touchdown ability:
“He's going to be somebody that you can count on to score more often than not in each and every game." (52:10)
Jason Moore warns about Graham’s inconsistency:
“If he doesn't get a touchdown, he'll probably end up with worthless stats." (52:29)
Conclusion: Graham is best utilized as a high-upside tight end in leagues that heavily reward touchdowns, though his week-to-week reliability may fluctuate.
Kyle Rudolph is recognized for his consistent presence in the red zone despite lower yardage numbers.
Mike Wright appreciates Rudolph’s target volume:
“He had 807 yards last year. The year before, 800." (49:58)
Jason Moore discusses Rudolph's role and potential:
“His catch percentage is about 9.3 yards per reception, which is solid." (55:57)
Conclusion: Rudolph remains a steady option for red-zone targets, offering reliable touchdown opportunities without the high yardage of some peers.
Jordan Reed is acknowledged for his high touchdown potential but flagged for possible injury concerns.
Jason Moore underscores Reed’s high upside:
“Jordan Reed is a talented guy with high touchdown potential and high usage history." (56:47)
Andy Holloway notes Reed's draft trajectory:
“Two years ago he was the fourth round pick. One year ago he was a fifth-round pick. Now he's a seventh-round pick." (57:02)
Conclusion: Reed is seen as a high-risk, high-reward pick who could break into the top five TEs if he remains healthy and maintains offensive involvement.
Trey Burton is considered a sneaky pick with potential to emulate top TEs if given sufficient opportunity.
Mike Wright highlights Burton’s athleticism and usage:
“The ability is there, the athleticism is there, the usage. That's the huge question." (58:54)
Jason Moore contemplates Burton’s role in the Chicago Bears:
“Trubisky’s understanding of the system will be crucial for Burton’s success." (59:16)
Conclusion: Burton is viewed as a sleeper pick who could thrive under the right quarterback and offensive scheme, making him a strategic late-round selection.
Tyler Iford is recognized as an undervalued tight end with growth potential, especially in Cincinnati’s offense.
Mike Wright discusses Iford’s role and potential:
“He's still young and on the cusp of becoming a tight end two-piece." (60:47)
Jason Moore emphasizes Iford’s undrafted value:
“When you have him with your last positional pick, I'd rather take Iford than Reed." (61:38)
Conclusion: Iford is considered a cost-effective option with the potential to develop into a reliable fantasy tight end, especially valuable in later rounds.
The hosts also highlight potential sleepers who could break into the top 10 with the right circumstances:
George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers): Known for his athleticism and potential, Kittle is seen as a high-upside sleeper who could elevate his game under a new offensive scheme.
Jason Moore: “If Kittle continues to develop, he could finish in the top 10." (62:37)
David Njoku (Cleveland Browns): Njoku is viewed as an emerging talent who could benefit from improved quarterback play and offensive strategies.
Andy Holloway: “David Njoku might be on the right team now with Tyrod Taylor bringing new magic." (63:18)
Luke Wilson (Detroit Lions): With the departure of other tight ends, Wilson has an opportunity to step up and become a key target in the Lions' offense.
Mike Wright: “Luke Wilson is going to get a chance to break out from the shadow." (64:22)
The podcast briefly touches on significant NFL news impacting fantasy football strategies:
Dez Bryant Cut by Cowboys: The removal of Dez Bryant from the Dallas Cowboys affects defensive and offensive dynamics, influencing fantasy managers with him or his replacements.
Andy Holloway: “If the Patriots cut Jordan Matthews today, it would be the greatest day of my life." (16:14)
C.J. Anderson’s Situation: Cut by the Cowboys, Anderson’s availability impacts running back strategies in fantasy leagues.
Jason Moore: “Dez and C.J. get cut this week, which has been rough for dynasty leagues." (16:25)
The Fantasy Footballers provide a comprehensive analysis of the tight end landscape for the 2018 fantasy football season, balancing statistical insights with strategic foresight. From the reliable dominance of Rob Gronkowski to the high-upside potentials of Trey Burton and Tyler Iford, the hosts equip listeners with the knowledge needed to make informed draft decisions. Additionally, the discussion on sleepers offers valuable opportunities for fantasy managers to gain an edge in their leagues.
Listeners are encouraged to visit FantasyFootballers.com for more detailed rankings, projections, and resources to enhance their fantasy football experience.
Notable Quotes:
Andy Holloway on Gronkowski's consistency:
"When he's on the field, he's the best tight end. It's an easy case." (25:17)
Jason Moore on Zach Ertz’s target volume:
"I believe the target volume is supremely confident it will be there with Zach Ertz." (29:46)
Mike Wright on Rob Gronkowski's elite performance:
"Over 50% of his games are what we break down as great games, and no one else is even close." (26:04)
Note: Timestamps are approximate and correspond to the transcript sections provided.