Fantasy Football 2018 - Early WR Rankings Part 2

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Episode: Fantasy Football 2018 - Early WR Rankings Part 2
Release Date: April 12, 2018
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Podcast: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast

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Episode Overview

In the second part of their early wide receiver (WR) rankings for the 2018 fantasy football season, the Fantasy Footballers delve deep into positions 11 through 20. Hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright offer comprehensive analyses, debating the merits and potential pitfalls of each player. This episode is packed with expert opinions, strategic insights, and spirited discussions aimed at helping fantasy managers make informed drafting decisions.

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Wide Receiver Rankings 11-20

11. Doug Baldwin

• Analysis: Doug Baldwin's ranking was a point of contention among the hosts. While he showcased consistency, Baldwin struggled with total yards and receptions in the previous season.
• Jason Moore: “Doug Baldwin has never been consistent. His consistency scores are not.”
• Mike Wright: “I think that would be the surprise for listeners is he was 13 last year. We are projecting an improvement for Doug Baldwin.”
• Insight: Despite a downturn in performance, Baldwin remains a viable option due to his established rapport with quarterback Russell Wilson and potential for offensive rebound.

12. Tyreek Hill

• Analysis: Tyreek Hill is viewed as a high-upside player who could flourish with the anticipated arrival of Patrick Mahomes.
• Jason Moore: “I usually want that outside guy who can score more per reception versus a slot guy like.”
• Mike Wright: “Tyreek Hill is a touchdown gobbler. Nine touchdowns that saved his whole season.”
• Insight: The uncertainty surrounding Hill’s target share with Mahomes introduces both risk and opportunity, making him a valuable yet volatile pick.

13. Sammy Watkins

• Analysis: Sammy Watkins is considered a more prototypical wide receiver compared to Hill, with better red-zone efficiency.
• Jason Moore: “I would rather have Sammy Watkins... if I knew they were both going to be the same amount of targets, the same amount at the end of the day, I would rather have Watkins.”
• Andy Holloway: “Are we underestimating the red zone impact that Sammy Watkins will have against Travis Kelsey?”
• Insight: Watkins offers reliability and red-zone targets, balancing the high-ceiling but inconsistent nature of Hill.

14. Amari Cooper

• Analysis: Amari Cooper is viewed as a polarizing figure with significant potential but also notable concerns regarding his route efficiency.
• Andy Holloway: “Amari Cooper needs to carry a team's wide receiver load. You have Jordy Nelson... Looked bad last year.”
• Jason Moore: “Alan Robinson should have a huge target market share.”
• Insight: Cooper's integration into a new offensive system under Bruce Arians presents a high-upside opportunity, albeit with risks related to his contested catch rate.

15. Larry Fitzgerald

• Analysis: Larry Fitzgerald remains a top-tier receiver primarily due to his high target volume and durability.
• Mike Wright: “If Sam Bradford is playing 16 games, Larry Fitzgerald's locked and loaded as a top 10 wide receiver.”
• Andy Holloway: “Larry Fitzgerald needs 91 receptions to pass Tony Gonzalez for second all-time. Larry Fitzgerald is an intelligent man.”
• Insight: Fitzgerald’s veteran presence and consistent target share make him a safe, albeit slightly aging, option for fantasy managers.

16. Alshon Jeffrey

• Analysis: Alshon Jeffrey is praised for his touchdown potential but criticized for his inconsistent target conversion.
• Mike Wright: “Alshon Jeffrey is a touchdown gobbler... He was the 12th most consistent receiver.”
• Jason Moore: “My actual biggest issue with Alshon... is the health of both him and Carson Wentz.”
• Insight: Jeffrey's ability to score touchdowns makes him valuable, but his dependency on team dynamics and health status introduces variability.

17. Allen Robinson

• Analysis: Allen Robinson is expected to flourish in Chicago with increased targets and a revamped offensive strategy.
• Mike Wright: “Allen Robinson should have a huge target market share.”
• Jason Moore: “Alan Robinson and Brooks pointed out, he was a stud with Blake the Snake.”
• Insight: Robinson's potential rise is tied to Chicago's offensive improvements and his role as the primary target, positioning him as a strong mid-round pick.

18. Josh Gordon

• Analysis: Josh Gordon is highlighted as a high-risk, high-reward option. His performance heavily depends on team offenses and quarterback stability.
• Mike Wright: “Josh Gordon has tremendous upside. His yards per catch was at 18.6.”
• Andy Holloway: “Josh Gordon is a gamble of these guys. Tremendous upside. The ceiling can't hold it.”
• Insight: Gordon’s explosive play potential makes him enticing, but legal and team uncertainties make him a speculative choice.

19. Dez Bryant

• Analysis: Dez Bryant is viewed skeptically due to his poor catch rate and offensive line issues, though there remains a slim chance for revival.
• Jason Moore: “There are a lot of targets that are credited towards Dez Bryant that are absolute garbage.”
• Andy Holloway: “Dez Bryant had 53 untouchable balls thrown at him.”
• Insight: Bryant is considered a risky pick with minimal upside unless significant improvements in his offensive environment occur.

20. Stefon Diggs

• Analysis: Stefon Diggs is appreciated for his consistency and red-zone efficiency but remains ranked lower due to team uncertainty and potential competition.
• Mike Wright: “Stefon Diggs is the better value of the combo... he's got to stay healthy.”
• Andy Holloway: “Diggs had only four games with fewer than 50 yards or no touchdown.”
• Insight: Diggs offers reliable production and high upside, making him a valuable late-round target if he maintains health and target volume.

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Insights on Rankings and Strategies

• Consistency vs. Upside: The hosts frequently debated the balance between a player's consistency and their potential for breakout performances. For instance, while Doug Baldwin offers reliability, Tyreek Hill presents a high-upside option that could dramatically outperform if his role expands with a new quarterback.

• Impact of Team Changes: Many rankings were influenced by roster changes, such as the introduction of Patrick Mahomes for Tyreek Hill or Bruce Arians’ influence on Amari Cooper's role. These changes can significantly alter a receiver's fantasy value.

• Reception Perception: Amari Cooper's reception perception ratings sparked discussions about his efficiency and ability to secure contested catches, impacting his fantasy reliability.

• Health Concerns: Players like Alshon Jeffrey and Josh Gordon were noted for their health issues, which could affect their availability and performance throughout the season.

• Veteran vs. Young Talent: The balance between experienced players like Larry Fitzgerald and rising stars like Allen Robinson and Stefon Diggs was a recurring theme, highlighting the importance of blending veteran reliability with young potential in drafts.

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Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers provided an in-depth analysis of wide receivers ranked 11 through 20 for the 2018 season, highlighting the strengths, weaknesses, and situational factors affecting each player’s fantasy potential. With a mix of consistency, high-upside talent, and team dynamic considerations, the hosts offered valuable insights aimed at helping fantasy managers navigate their draft strategies effectively.

For more detailed rankings and player breakdowns, listeners are encouraged to visit the Fantasy Footballers' Ultimate Draft Kit and join their community at jointhefoot.com.

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Note: All opinions expressed in this summary are based on the content of the podcast episode and do not reflect any personal viewpoints.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foot clan. The draft is approaching. Training camp is approaching. And that means your fantasy football drafts are approaching faster than you can possibly believe. Make sure you are prepared by heading to ultimatedraftkit.com that's where you're going to get over a hundred video profiles. All of our rankings are tier breakdowns. Cannot stress enough the importance of the tier breakdowns because that is how we draft full projections for any fantasy player. Relevance. And on top of that, it stays updated the entire off season. So make sure you get into the cheapest price possible this [e-mail] welcome to.

[Jason Moore]

The Fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in Thursday, April 12th. Just another day in the neighborhood.

[Andy Holloway]

Friendly, friendly day.

[Mike Wright]

Friendly day. Jason, how are you?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, you're back.

[Jason Moore]

Could I be.

[Mike Wright]

You're back.

[Jason Moore]

Could I be any better? Yes, I am back.

[Mike Wright]

I am back. How you feeling, Jay? Grizz filled in admirably.

[Jason Moore]

You know, he's ever.

[Mike Wright]

He never takes a sick day, just for the record.

[Jason Moore]

No, he's always trying to claw his way in here. Yeah, he did a great. Hey, shout out. Jay, you did a great job.

[Mike Wright]

But you're back.

[Jason Moore]

I am.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome back.

[Jason Moore]

Ready to bring it?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm feeling a little. Feel a little tired. I tried to relive my youth. I played some basketball last night. It doesn't work as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Are your ligaments.

[Mike Wright]

They are. They are intact.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what? You won.

[Mike Wright]

I won.

[Andy Holloway]

It doesn't matter what the score was.

[Mike Wright]

Right. We have the second half of our wide receiver rankings on today's episode. Mike and I went over one through ten.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, we. And we dominated.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

We spoke on your behalf many times, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Sweet. Yeah, just I finally said something right.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, don't say that. Accurate. But don't say that. So we are getting into 11 through 20 on today's episode. Have a great quick question. You can find us on the web, the Fantasy footballers dot com. Tons of great articles. Shout out to our writing staff. Producing some awesome off season content. And we've even got some reception perception content. Some of the rookies, some Matt Harmon written articles, some charts, very sexy charts. Oh, just. Just telling the truth.

[Jason Moore]

They are. They are looking really good.

[Mike Wright]

If a chart could be sexy, that.

[Jason Moore]

I mean if you've been a fan of Matt Harmon's reception perception and you just look at this from a fantasy perspective. I mean the arrow is pointing up this. You look at the change year after year on these charts, it's coming into that year. Three wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Breakout year.

[Jason Moore]

Breakout year.

[Andy Holloway]

A handsome man deserves a handsome chart. And that's what happened for Mr. Harmon. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So you can check them out at the website, the fantasy footballers dot com. Check out our community jointhefoot.com you can join leagues with fellow listeners of the show. If you're in one of those leagues, you know, and you need to make it a yeah.

[Jason Moore]

League.

[Mike Wright]

That's the saying that we associate with.

[Andy Holloway]

Join the foot.com that's on my a bumper sticker on my car.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Twitter, the FF Ballers. And if you want to follow each of us individually, Jason is at jasonffl, Mike is at ffhitman and I'm at Andy Holloway. So you can do that on Twitter. We tweet different stuff than the main account. So it's all good follows. All good follows. Here's the quick question of the day, gentlemen, before we get into the wide receivers. And I always love the second show because you talk about some bigger, bigger debates happening when you, you know, Jason has some of these guys. I have some of these guys far different from, from one another. So which Redskins quarterback, I'm sorry, which Redskins wide receiver are you most interested in for the 2018 season? So consider the ADP. So the average draft position of the player, consider the value. But we're talking about Jameson Crowder, Josh Dockson and newly acquired Paul Richardson. Which whiteout are you most interested in and looking at? I had not seen your guys's answer. We all have a different answer.

[Jason Moore]

I was amazed when I went in. I was the third one to put a name in and I was shocked that I was the only one saying the correct name, which is Paul Richardson. Look, I know he's the new guy in town and last year I was talking about, hey, you know, new guy coming into town. That's not always the best situation. Right. Terrell Pryor came in. He's got to learn. He's got to get a new rapport. But the quarterback's new too. So everybody is a new, you know, situation here trying to get a new rapport with the quarterback. Paul Richardson is the only fast outside option. That is proven. He's got four, four speed. He was a high second round draft pick. They just paid up to get him. And a new quarterback coming to town. I think he's just going to recognize. I genuinely believe Paul Richardson out of these three guys is just simply the best. And I usually want that outside guy, you know, who can score more per reception versus a slot guy like.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, which is what I went with. I went with the slot receiver 104 targets last year. The player I think that Alex Smith will fall in love with in that in the slot with the high percentage passes.

[Jason Moore]

An Alex Smith type receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. 24 years old still. I think there's still a lot of upside to his game and I think he's a the kind of player that could, you know, he could push 80 receptions in this offense.

[Andy Holloway]

And I went with Josh Dockson simply chasing ceiling. And you're going to get touchdowns, you're going to get draft value. Yeah, Josh Dachshund has touched on upside in my opinion. Six last year. He's not as fast certainly as Paul Richardson, but six, two runs a four five. I mean he is an athletic freak who it's. He was a first round pick. This is that third year and to be fair to Josh Dachshund, his rookie year was completely lost to injury. We just started to see what he can do about halfway through of last year. And if I'm going to take anyone from Washington, Paul Richardson ceiling to me is yeah, he's a nice wide receiver 3. But if Dachshund does break out, then you're talking about a high level wide receiver too.

[Jason Moore]

High upside.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So that's why I will grant you.

[Mike Wright]

Here's the higher level question, then I'll add one to the mix. Do you actually want any of them?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I actually want Paul Richardson because while I think he is the best player here, there will be value in.

[Mike Wright]

Paul Richardson or Devonte Parker this year.

[Jason Moore]

I will take Paul Richardson because of cost of draft. Right now Paul Richardson is basically undrafted. He's 14th round. I mean he's the last guy drafted of this three pack and I think he can be the number one producing wide receiver. I don't think he will be a wide receiver one in fantasy football. But if I can at the end of my draft get NFL either. If I can at the end of the draft get a fantasy, you know, an NFL team's leading receiver who's going to be productive on the year, which is what I genuinely view Paul Richardson. I just think the value is better.

[Mike Wright]

Than John Brown in Baltimore.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I don't trust John Brown.

[Mike Wright]

Did I read Eric Decker last week visited the Ravens, huh?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we'll see.

[Mike Wright]

All right, without further ado, let's. Let's get back into the wide receivers.

[Jason Moore]

Wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

All right, recap from the Tuesday show. Top 10. Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr. Julio Jones, AJ Green, Michael Thomas Green and Thomas were tied at 5. Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Devonte Adams, Adam Thielen. That was our top 10 consensus wide receiver rankings here in April. All right, so we're moving on. We're going to discuss 11 through 20 today, and let's kick it off with Doug. Let's talk about Doug Baldwin.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I was with you.

[Jason Moore]

I was enjoying.

[Mike Wright]

You needed to commit 2015, he was the 8th best fantasy wide receiver. 2016, he was the 10th.

[Jason Moore]

He's committing too hard.

[Mike Wright]

And then last year was. You need. You need to read that. The book with the porridge.

[Jason Moore]

Goldilocks.

[Mike Wright]

Goldilocks.

[Andy Holloway]

The book with the porridge.

[Jason Moore]

Great wisdom, Andy.

[Mike Wright]

You know, one minute I'm staring at Doug Baldwin, next minute I'm asked to recall a very difficult to remember story.

[Andy Holloway]

Goldilocks. Who remembers that book?

[Mike Wright]

13Th last year, 75 receptions, 991 and 8. Not the year you hope for from Doug Baldwin.

[Andy Holloway]

Nope.

[Mike Wright]

He busted 19% of the time. He was the 10th most consistent wide out in fantasy. So a bump up from his finish total. But what do you guys think about Doug Baldwin this year? Because there's. There's a part of me that thinks Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin, they may just be the offense. I mean, this might be what you have. And if the defense isn't as good and even more is put on the back of Russell Wilson, maybe Doug Baldwin can bounce back for a top 10.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason Howard, you're the resident Doug Baldwin, truther of this panel. How are you feeling?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, over the last several years, I've really liked Doug Baldwin. I think I was on it before. It was cool, and then it became too hot and he sucked. The reality is Doug Baldwin, while I've. While I've always liked him, he's never. We've talked about this for years. He's never been a consistent. His consistency scores are not.

[Andy Holloway]

Didn't Andy say he was 10?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's pretty good.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he was 10th in consistency scores by the fact that he didn't bust often. But his. His rating of giving you. He was, you know, 19% of the time. He was really, really good. The majority of the time, not so great. And, you know, this last year, that was with Paul Richardson. And I think with Paul Richardson gone, maybe Tyler Lockett steps up.

[Mike Wright]

Maybe.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe Amaro Darbo gets a little bit more. But I think the defense is worse for Seattle as well. You know, they've lost. They've got a lot of changing things there. The only true constant is Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin. So I actually like Baldwin this year. From a standpoint of he's going to get touchdowns, I just always worry about whether or not he can. I don't think even if he finishes as a one, I don't think he can be your one, your wide receiver one because he, you know, he's. I feel like he is more boom bust over the years, even touchdowns last year he was a little bit more consistent.

[Mike Wright]

Eight touchdowns last year, only seven the year before, but under a thousand yards and lost 20 receptions off the year prior.

[Andy Holloway]

And here's what was interesting when I was going back and team wasn't as good checking out Doug Baldwin was the first half of the year he was. He averaged nine targets a game.

[Jason Moore]

Delightful.

[Andy Holloway]

I would love nine targets a game and putting up 11 yards per reception. The second half of the year it dropped to five targets a game, but he jumped up to 17 yards per reception. So that's. I don't know what to make.

[Jason Moore]

Well, do you remember what happened to the offense?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Literally you, you were criticizing it every, every single Sunday. Just watching all Russell Wilson could do is drop back, run around for his life and launch the ball to the end zone like that was their offense.

[Andy Holloway]

Somehow it worked against Jacksonville. Ridiculous.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So, I mean I think that's, that's part to blame. But coming up this season you're going to get a little bit more of the same. But I like the fact that there's not another tried and true option there. Can their running game get worse?

[Mike Wright]

Nope.

[Jason Moore]

So that could open things up for them.

[Mike Wright]

But he definitely finished behind this ranking. So I think that would be the surprise for listeners is he was 13 last year. We actually are projecting an improvement for Doug Baldwin.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Tyreek Hill comes in at number 12. Jason, you've got him right there at 12. Mike 13, I have him at 14. And last year, all right, he played 15 games, 75 receptions, 1183 yards, seven touchdowns and throws in another 17 carries. Wide receiver eight. He's an example of one of the players that during shows this time last year or shows leading up into the season you really wondered about, you know, you were coming off this, the, the punt return, kick return monster play season. You heard all the hype about being more involved in the offense and it came to fruition. Tyreek Hill was, was heavily used. He fought through injury several times throughout the year and here he is at number 12, still a wide receiver one on an early rankings last year, finished eighth. What do you guys think?

[Andy Holloway]

It's difficult to rank Tyree Kill appropriately because last year he had 105 targets. The receiver with the most targets behind him was Albert Wilson with 62. And you know that Travis Kelce is going to be involved. Travis Kelce led the team targets. They gave Sammy Watkins a three year deal worth $48 million. He's not coming in for 62 targets. So if Kelsey is guaranteed to get his 100 plus, what happens to Hill? Does it drop to the high 80s or. Because I just don't see a world where Sammy Watkins comes in and gets Albert Wilson level of 62 targets.

[Mike Wright]

And we've said that on the show, or at least I have. I want the better value between those players. Even though I think. And have. I have Hill at 14. Even though I think that, you know, Hill may outperform him fantasy wise due to the big plays.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

I want the better value in the draft. Yeah, I think Sammy is going to be the better value.

[Jason Moore]

Certainly Tyreek Hill has I think a larger risk rating right now for being ranked this high. Had Sammy Watkins not come and Alex Smith not left, I would have Tyreek Hill up, you know, at number five or six. He is an extreme talent. But there's so many changing parts here where you're going from a large target market share to all of a sudden if he ends up next year with, you know, 20 fewer targets that's gonna, that could completely massacre 105 targets.

[Mike Wright]

Isn't.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, there's plenty of room to grow.

[Mike Wright]

That's not the, I mean that's not too high.

[Jason Moore]

No, he did not have too many targets in general. But the point is his market share within the offense. And now what, what's going to happen when Mahomes comes? Because Mahomes has the big gun of an arm and that's that downfield. Now Tyreek Hill downfield did last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Alex Smith was the best downfield passer in the league.

[Jason Moore]

But now with Sammy Watkins, who's the downfield player because Tyree kills the downfield.

[Mike Wright]

Player, you think Watkins can be too. But Tyreek Hill is not going to not streak down the field. It was gold for them.

[Andy Holloway]

They just got to go with my, my go to. On Madden, everyone runs the 9 route.

[Jason Moore]

It's a Hail Mary play.

[Mike Wright]

Every play you stack three to the right, one to the left.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah, that's my go to.

[Mike Wright]

But yeah, there's no way. I mean you can't look at it in binary. You know, it's not. There's one deep option now and you're not going to run Tyreek Hill down the field. He's going to run down the field. That's what he does better than anybody in. I mean, he averaged 78 receiving yards a game last year. I look at him the same way, I look at him in the exact same vein as Ty Hilton, which is traditionally. Ty Hilton doesn't score double digit touchdowns. He makes monstrous plays. Here's the question I have for you, Jay. Let's say I told you, both players, Tyree Kill, Sammy Watkins, same draft value and will score the exact same amount of fantasy points. Which player do you want for fantasy football? Because then you're talking about consistency, then you're talking about week to week, up and down. Which player do you want? Because Tyree Kill can win you a week. Maybe Sammy's in that same category.

[Jason Moore]

I would rather have Sammy Watkins in that world because I think Sammy Watkins is much more the prototypical wide receiver. One Tyree Kill gets it done with extreme speed. But Sammy Watkins has kind of that combination. 6, 1, 2, 11 with the 4, 4, 3 speed. Sammy is, you know, in that great 2014 draft class. That's unfathomable. Sammy Watkins went ahead of Odell Beckham and Mike Evans long time ago. No, no, no. I realized that. And he's dealt with injury. But my, my point is, if I knew that they were both going to be, you know, the same amount of targets, the same amount, at the end of the day, I would rather have Watkins. But we are in, myself included, projecting Tyreek Hill ahead of Watkins. Because we've seen it. Because it's, it's, it's been in this offense. You know, Tyree Kill knows it. Andy Reid, now we know that Andy Reid knows how to use Tyree Kill to extreme success. So I'm going to project Tyree Kill. You know, I've got him at 11.

[Andy Holloway]

I have a sidebar conversation. Are we underestimating the red zone impact that Sammy Watkins will have against Travis Kelsey? Because Travis Kelsey last year had 20 red zone targets. He had five red zone touchdowns. And Tyree Kill, for those who don't remember, did absolutely Nothing inside the 20. All of his touchdowns came from beyond that. They didn't even go to Tyree kill inside the 20. And without another, now they have another go to guy. I mean, same walk is a big dude.

[Jason Moore]

And then you, you add in same with Kelsey, you add in that change with Alex Smith and you go maybe, maybe the.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, I think the point here that's been reiterated is there's a lot of unknown in the offense now because you have Sammy Watkins and Pat Mahomes and What do they, what does that represent? Does that represent more of a passing share? Does Reed go past heavy pass crazy? Does the defense getting weaker mean that they have to rely on the passing game? And it makes the target count that Tyreek Hill had acceptable? Those are possible outcomes, but I still want the best value. And I, you know, I hear a lot of love for Sammy Watkins here, and I think it's fair. And I don't know if you're going to get that in the community because I think you're going to have people more afraid to endorse Sammy Watkins because we haven't seen it yet. But that's where you make your mark in fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

It's pretty hard to endorse.

[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

You have?

[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

I've been doing one of those two things as well.

[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

Magic. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

P. All right, this next guy's name is spelled T, Y H I L.

[Andy Holloway]

T O N. Isn't there periods in there?

[Jason Moore]

T.T.Y.

[Andy Holloway]

Hilton.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

What is happening? Ty Hilton. Jason, you have him at 11. Mike 14. I got him at 15. As of today, we're having the faith in 2016. So the last time he had a healthy Andrew Luck, he was the fifth best fantasy wide receiver. That is what you have to think about when it comes to TLI Hilton. He can be that good. He can be a top five guy because you end up with a top five quarterback at the time in fantasy football. So last year, not so good. 57 for 966 and 4. And I feel like all 57 came in one game.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I can tell you, I was going to say.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Break it down.

[Andy Holloway]

His end of season stats actually look okay. However, if you had him for fantasy, you know this, that 62% of his yards came in four games. Four games.

[Mike Wright]

I would say that makes sense with what he had behind center and what happened last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Just saying.

[Mike Wright]

And they're not a. He didn't have help either.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just saying, to have Hilton in your fantasy lineup for 16 weeks.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, it's terrible.

[Andy Holloway]

A guy who finishes with 966 yards.

[Mike Wright]

You're thinking, yeah, you flipped a four sided coin and you needed it to come up.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The truth is from last year, I do not believe. I do not believe that it was Ty. What are the three other sides? No, no, no, we're.

[Andy Holloway]

No, we're stopping here.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. What are the three?

[Mike Wright]

We're not stopping.

[Jason Moore]

So we got heads. We Got tails. Wait, didn't he say six sided?

[Mike Wright]

No, four sided.

[Andy Holloway]

Heads, tails, fails and quails.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Well, it came up fails last year.

[Mike Wright]

The four sided coin, by the way, that normally has the Mount Rushmore heads. All four is on there. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Ooh, I got Lincoln.

[Mike Wright]

Surprised you didn't know it.

[Jason Moore]

I don't blame Ty Hilton.

[Mike Wright]

If you look, you have to throw it out.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you do throw it out. You know Jack Doyle, when you watch the games, you basically had Brissette coming in and saying, today, who am I going to be able to look at first? And it was either Jack Doyle normally or every now and then if you know the bad defense and he felt like he could look a little further down the field, it was Ty Hilton. That's how I felt about watching those games.

[Mike Wright]

I still saw separation on tape all the time from Ty Hilton big play capability. He was fourth best in the NFL when it came to yards per reception with 16.9. He did what Ty Hilton does. The frequency of targets, the ability to get him the ball, the accuracy of the targets, the accuracy of the targets, all of those things factored in. So the real question is, is you're kind of. I'm kind of hedging with him at 15 right here.

[Jason Moore]

Because you'll move him up if Andrew.

[Mike Wright]

Luck is and I'll move him down if he's not. So it's kind of a. Yeah, exactly. So. And Jason, you took, I'm, I'm assuming an approach where you've got him inside that top 12 because that's probably where he belongs if Andrew Luck is healthy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think I lean towards Andrew Luck being healthy, so I'm. I feel like I'm hedging as well. I. He should be kind of a top eight wide receiver. If Andrew Luck is truly back and healthy, he is going to be a value in this year's draw draft. If Luck is healthy. Because if. Even if Luck's healthy. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

When are the questions answered about Luck?

[Jason Moore]

If he's playing in preseason, which he absolutely should be like, if he's not playing in preseason, the questions have been answered. So I think by draft day the questions will be answered. And assuming he's playing in preseason, he'll get a tiny bump, but I don't believe that he will get that Ty Hilton will get the bump up to where he will finish this year. So I think Ty Hilton is going to be a really good value. Or if Luck's not playing in the preseason, there's no way I'm off of my draft board 100%. I won't. If Luck's not playing in the preseason, I will not draft Ty Hilton.

[Mike Wright]

Bold. All right, Mike, do you have anything to add to Hilton? I think we've covered it. Here's the polarizing character that I've forced up our consensus board. Yes, you have Amari Cooper coming in at number 14. We've been here before. Amari, this is your. This is your time of the season. The hype train is on the tracks. I've got him at 10. Jason 17, Mike 15.

[Jason Moore]

I feel much better about my ranking.

[Mike Wright]

Than your guys last year. 48 receptions for 680 yards, seven touchdowns on 96 targets. The wide receiver, 33, which is very far from 10, which is where I have him. Look, I'm going to choose to believe because that's what you have to do.

[Andy Holloway]

You're buying that Gruden hype?

[Mike Wright]

Well, I'm buying the export. The Crabtree leaving town shipped off. This is Amari Cooper's team.

[Andy Holloway]

But can he handle that?

[Mike Wright]

I think he can. And look, it doesn't matter how good or bad of a season you had. You cannot have a game like the, like the game he had last year against Kansas City unless you're a very, very talented player. Because they were force feeding him the ball in that game and he made plays. And yes, some of them he had to juggle first before he caught them. I get it. But Derek Carr came out, said he was playing injured, still very, very young. This is a player who one year is one year removed from just being outside the top 12. He finished 13th in 2016. And I still believe in Amari Cooper. So that's all it comes down to. Do you still believe in Amari Cooper and to what level? It wasn't good last year. There's no sugar on last year's performance.

[Andy Holloway]

The interesting thing for Mario cooperation, you're talking about the export being a bump up. Will that actually be a bump up? Because Michael Crabtree was great for the Oakland Raiders for the past few years. Meaning you can just throw everything at trying to knock Amari Cooper out of the game plan. Amari Cooper, part of his problem is contested catches, which in my opinion a number one wide receiver has to be able to do. And these are numbers pulled directly from reception perception, which if you want these kinds of numbers, this is the stuff that's available in the ultimate draft kit. The average percentage for a wide receiver completing a contested catch in the NFL for Matt Harmon's charming charting is 64.% Cooper's rookie year, 61 and a half under average. His next year, which was his big year, bigger year, 57 and a half or 57.1 little worse last year, the lowest that reception perception has ever seen at 16.7% of his contested targets were not caught. Now does that just simply fit into that narrative that Derek Carr kind of tried to explain the way the season for Mari Cooper saying that he was playing extremely hurt. I don't know if we're ever going to get to the point where Amari Cooper can carry a team's. Carry the team's wide receiver load. You have Jordy Nelson, who unless Aaron Rodgers has been playing with him, looked bad. Looked, looked real bad last year.

[Jason Moore]

And this is a shot.

[Andy Holloway]

I have some. I have great concerns for Mari Cooper. I met, I think Andy said 15 simply based on volume. But I don't think it's going to be a very fun ride.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I've never in my entire, you know, football analysis life been so. Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hydro, thank goodness you.

[Mike Wright]

Said that because I thought you were going to give me one of the two and I'd be like either way you'd have been lying.

[Jason Moore]

I am the bipolar bear on Amari Cooper. I can't. It just depends on which side of the bed I wake up on because there are so many things, so many arrows that point to the perfect direction. If he was hurt last year and you see, I mean look, the difference between would you say 16% catch rate and his average of near 60 is huge. If he was injured last year, Michael Crabtree was the one and he's healthy this year and he's coming in. He's what, 24? He's so young.

[Mike Wright]

16. 16 years old.

[Jason Moore]

16 years old in a man's body.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And but the reality is he was straight bad last year. He just wasn't a 23 years old.

[Andy Holloway]

He'll be 24 in June.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So you know Eileen right now, I mean Eileen, volume based is usually where I try to track my stats. And he will have volume. So that means that he should be a fine wide receiver next year.

[Mike Wright]

83 for over 1100 yards and five touchdowns in 2016. He has done it. This is not Devonte Parker who we're saying, wow, he's got a great opportunity. Let's see if he can finally do it. At least Amari's gone out and given you a season. 1100 plus yards, 80 plus reception.

[Andy Holloway]

It was a very Hilton esque season.

[Mike Wright]

No, 83 for 83 receptions is a high total, sure.

[Andy Holloway]

But he had 50% of his yards in four games.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to make a.

[Mike Wright]

Because he can. He has not been able to string together. If you put those four games over a season, he would have been the greatest receiver of all time.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, agreed.

[Jason Moore]

I'm making a chart here for myself to know if the last words I spoke on Amari Cooper were kind or not kind.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, it's like a. He loves me. He loves me.

[Jason Moore]

Not exactly. I'm making this. And whatever the I ever say about Amari Cooper will go to the other side.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

That's important because I really like him.

[Mike Wright]

This is like the NCAA jump ball.

[Jason Moore]

Rule and he's terrible.

[Mike Wright]

Like, it goes.

[Andy Holloway]

What is it? Side out?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, side out. To one team or the other. You'll look down and you'll go, okay, I'm down on him. All right, number 15, Larry Fitzgerald, then.

[Andy Holloway]

There's only one reason why he's at.

[Mike Wright]

15 and his name is Jason. Look.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

No, his name is Sam Bradford.

[Andy Holloway]

His name is Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Mike has him at 11, I have him at 12, and I think I have him too low. And I'm not joking. He's going to be 100 plus reception guy this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So Sam Bradford is not going to hurt that.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't even care if it's Mike Glennon.

[Mike Wright]

No, I don't either.

[Jason Moore]

Larry Fitz.

[Andy Holloway]

Look at. Okay, let's go back and look at the Bears. Mike Glennon. What did he do? He was terrified, he panicked, and then he dumped the ball off with a short pass.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

AKA either David Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald.

[Mike Wright]

What Skelton did last year, if you.

[Andy Holloway]

Have Amari Cooper at 17 simply based on volume, who's more. Whose volume is more guaranteed in the NFL when you're talking these, these level wide receivers than Larry Fitzgerald, 162 targets.

[Mike Wright]

Last year, the fifth ranked wide receiver, perennially disrespected. I think Mike and I are just going to. Mike and I are just going to alternate speaking.

[Jason Moore]

Okay? I mean, look, I love Larry Fitzgerald. I think he will.

[Andy Holloway]

Liar.

[Jason Moore]

No, I really do. If you told me Sam Bradford is playing 16 games, then Larry Fitzgerald's locked and loaded as a top 10 wide receiver. He'll have the volume and he's as clutch as it gets. But he is. He's a slot receiver now. Right, which is fine.

[Andy Holloway]

He's been a slot receiver for many years.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. But my point is like eight of them. Okay, tell me this. In 2012, 2013, 2014, when he didn't have a good quarterback, Was he younger or was he bad then? Was he a terrible wide receiver because he wasn't finishing well for fantasy football those years? And here's his target counts. 154, 156 and 135. Those are great target counts. So why wasn't he a top 10 wide receiver then? Because he had a bad quarterback. Now he's moved to the slot where touchdowns aren't as prevalent. So my point is this. If Sam Bradford does not play, if Sam Bradford is out, I'm not banking on Mike Lynn and Larry Fitzgerald. I'm just not. I'm not going to say that he's going to be a fantasy superstar just because he gets a lot of volume.

[Mike Wright]

In games where Carson Palmer played versus another quarterback since 2014. Receiving targets per game with and without Palmer. With Palmer, 8.9. Without 9.2.

[Jason Moore]

It's just very selective that you go since 2014.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I was going since Palmer because that made sense, right? The starting quarterback. I wasn't being very selective. I was just going since Palmer was the. Do you want me go 2013?

[Jason Moore]

My point was during his poor years where he didn't have a quarterback, like.

[Mike Wright]

This year, he was an outside receiver. Back then.

[Andy Holloway]

Like last year when he had Blaine Gabbard and Drew Stanton and had 109 receptions.

[Mike Wright]

I just don't know how it can get worse than what he had last year.

[Andy Holloway]

The big.

[Mike Wright]

He lost more outside receivers. No. John Brown. No. Jaron Brown.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason, your argument does. On the surface, it sounds. It does sound convincing. The problem is back then he was the outside receiver and now he is the slot guy where the ball is schemed to him and bad quarterbacks can still get him the ball. That's. That's why I'm still fine with fit.

[Jason Moore]

But how many touchdowns is he going to have with Mike Glennon?

[Andy Holloway]

Six. Seven. That's all he needs.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

He only had. He only had six last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Booyah.

[Mike Wright]

And he's the fifth best wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

I don't want to disparage Larry Fitzgerald.

[Andy Holloway]

You're doing it.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not. I've got him as a wide receiver. Two right now.

[Mike Wright]

Pathetic at the bottom of the two for a guy who's finished. Here's his last three years. 9 12.

[Andy Holloway]

Five if you want. Before that, if you want to take a stroll down 52.

[Jason Moore]

52. 1737, the skeleton year. That's.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a strange thing to argue that because he's older now he should be worse now.

[Mike Wright]

But he's.

[Andy Holloway]

But he's not. If we want to found the fountain of view if we wanted. He kind of has. But if we want to stroll down the narrative street. Larry Fitzgerald needs 390 yards to pass Terrell Owens to be second all time. That's not very much. However, he needs 91 receptions to pass Tony Gonzalez for second of all time. Larry Fitzgerald has come back and Larry Fitzgerald is a intelligent man. He knows that the Cardinals have little to no shot to even make the playoffs, let alone make the super bowl and make a run at a championship. They're going to break that record. So if Larry Fitzgerald plays 16 games, it's a lock.

[Jason Moore]

A lock.

[Andy Holloway]

For 90 plus receptions. It's happening.

[Jason Moore]

I definitely think that would be his goal. I do agree with that. But this isn't a Bruce Arians. You're forgetting that part of it too. This is a new offense.

[Mike Wright]

True.

[Jason Moore]

This isn't Bruce Arians led. He's not going to be the one. You know. Is a defensive minded head coach coming in going to say my priority is to get Larry Fitzgerald that record? Maybe.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You want to. You guys should do a 90 reception bet. No, because this is all about.

[Jason Moore]

I'll make that 90 reception bet if. If you lose Sam Bradford. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Either way, the quarterback does not matter. I am on record saying so. You're saying that. So how do you want to phrase this bet?

[Mike Wright]

Jason's not willing to. He's not willing to do the best. Sam Bradford's healthy for 16.

[Andy Holloway]

So if Sam Bradford plays fewer than 16 games.

[Jason Moore]

No, I will not take a 19.

[Mike Wright]

This is falling apart. I knew he wouldn't.

[Jason Moore]

I will take a. I will take a top 15 wide receiver bet. No problem.

[Andy Holloway]

Fine.

[Mike Wright]

Put it on the board. Can I join you?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, you can.

[Jason Moore]

Water?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, you can.

[Mike Wright]

Easy money. Or in this case, water.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Alshon. Jeffrey comes in at 16.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm far less excited to talk about.

[Mike Wright]

You know, Alshon ended up the wide receiver. 18 last year. He played 16 games. He was great in the playoffs and the team is great.

[Andy Holloway]

And allegedly played with a.

[Jason Moore]

What was it?

[Andy Holloway]

The problem with his rotator cuff?

[Jason Moore]

Mm.

[Andy Holloway]

The whole season, apparently.

[Mike Wright]

I didn't know this. Caught 57 of 120 passes when he was targeted. That is the fourth worst reception percentage.

[Jason Moore]

Holy.

[Mike Wright]

In the league.

[Andy Holloway]

What? My goodness.

[Mike Wright]

47.5%. That's.

[Andy Holloway]

That is accurate.

[Mike Wright]

That explains 57 receptions on 120 targets.

[Andy Holloway]

If only he had two fewer receptions.

[Mike Wright]

He was the 12th most consistent receiver. Jason, you got him the highest. You got him at 15.

[Jason Moore]

Mm.

[Mike Wright]

And you got Larry Fitzgerald at 21. Explain.

[Jason Moore]

Well, a player who was half the.

[Andy Holloway]

Reception, 35th in among the league in wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

Look, we know what this show's about now.

[Jason Moore]

I am absolutely fine with where I have Larry Fitzgerald ranked right now. Alshon Jeffrey on the ground. Alshon Jeffrey is. I think he'll finish the year as a wide receiver, too. And when I look at him compared to a lot of the guys around him, the question marks say, you know, a Josh Gordon, is he going to be good on the Browns? Is he going to be the number one target? Alan Robinson. How is Mitchell Trubisky? It's just a matter of. We've seen out. We've seen Alshon be successful, especially as a touchdown Gobbler. I worry a little bit about the health.

[Mike Wright]

The best, most accurate nickname. He is a touchdown gobbler. Nine touchdown, nine touchdowns that saved his whole season. The touchdown Gobbler. The thing about Alshon that I don't like and I have him the lowest at 19 is not anything to do with his talent or ability. It's the fact that this team is filled with different weapons. They're willing to win however the defense plays them, whether that means running the ball with four different running backs filling the stat sheet for Zach Ertz, they have other weapons there.

[Andy Holloway]

And so Jeffrey, their wide receiver, too, from Tori Smith to Mike Wallace.

[Mike Wright]

If Jeffrey doesn't score, he doesn't make you happy that week.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I agree. And my actual biggest issue with Alshon and he will drop like a rock in my rankings based on this is the health of both him and Carson Wentz. So we'll know more as we get close to the season because he underwent surgery after the season.

[Mike Wright]

He's a surgery gobbler, too, just for the record.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he is. So, you know, if delicious. If coming into preseason, you know, reports are bad surgery and they're not there, then. Then he'll certainly drop to even below Larry Fitzgerald for now. Oh, I'm.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, even below.

[Mike Wright]

There is no below.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, my goodness. Where do I. So you guys know I've got Larry ranked it wide receiver 87, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Is this what you guys believe?

[Mike Wright]

Basically.

[Jason Moore]

Where do I have like 21?

[Mike Wright]

21 is the new 87 when it comes to Larry. My goodness, Allen Robinson, that's in the 20s. Jason math checks out his swan song. All right, Allen Robinson at number 17. This is one of the players when we posted the Tuesday episode, had a lot of questions about where do we have Allen Robinson? Well, we got him at 17 and that's. We all Ranked him right around the same spot. And we're expecting Allen Robinson to be, I think, a target monster in Chicago. Whether the offense will be capable of producing, you know, with Nagy and Trubisky and what they have there, I don't know. But I think Robinson's good for what, 130 targets.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the hard part about Alan Robinson. This is. This is all speculation and projecting from a season that happened, but what I'm saying, like, what's last year's stats?

[Mike Wright]

Nothing.

[Andy Holloway]

He caught a pass and tore his ACL. What about two years ago?

[Mike Wright]

Well, 100% catch rate is what you're saying.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's true, but two years ago it really wasn't that great. Three years ago it was incredible.

[Jason Moore]

Back when Mitchell Trubisky was in diapers.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So that's why I'm saying it's very hard to rank Alan Robinson because it's just. What do you. What do you believe the player of Alan Robinson is?

[Jason Moore]

Here's why I have him ranked the highest, and I'm fine with it because I'm not necessarily the hugest Mitchell Trubisky fan. I think he's all right and hopefully he takes that step forward that he, you know, very well could with Matt Nagy and the new offensive system. But there aren't a lot of other pieces here to steal. Targets. Trey Burton will come in. He'll play that tight end role. But it's the Allen Robinson show on offense. This was a team that was depleted of any and all things resembling wide receiver talent. And now Alan Robinson should have a huge target market share. And, you know, even if Mitchell Trubisky isn't the best, if you've got a young, healthy Alan Robinson out playing the X role where he's getting downfield and he's, you know, up near that 150 targets, even if it was two years ago, Allen Robinson that we say was down, the only reason that was down is because he was drafted to be a super megastar. You're going to be getting Alan Robinson in that fourth, fifth round, possibly, where two years ago, Alan Robinson. The value is going to pay off.

[Andy Holloway]

You're going to have to pay off. What's the upside?

[Mike Wright]

The nice thing about the Trubisky situation is that Alan Robinson and Brooks pointed this out, he was a stud with Blake the Snake. I got a snake, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Because people overlook Blake the Snake.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, well, sure. What do we say on. On the show? Was it last week about Leonard Fournette facing almost the most stacked Boxes in the entire league.

[Andy Holloway]

I just said a lot of people overlooked Playbourne.

[Jason Moore]

I want to talk about NFL teams.

[Mike Wright]

I want to talk about number 18, Josh Gordon. I have him at 16. Here's what I like about what I saw from the brief return of Josh Gordon last year when he had his monstrous, incredible 1646 yard, number one season. His yards per catch was at 18.9 last year. Yes, he was limited, came back just five games, yards per catch 18.6. We were worried about what happened to him in that brief pre injury time in 2014 when he was at 12.6 a catch and didn't look the same. I like the fact that we saw him making the bigger plays and doing what Josh Gordon does. That tells me that Hugh Jackson understands what he has in Josh Gordon. And yes, as when you draft Josh Gordon, you are taking a gamble, okay, you're taking a gamble on the team, you're taking a gamble on the player. But I think that you're also taking a chance at getting a top six, top seven type of talent. It's going to depend on what quarterback they put in position because his catch percentage is what was down last year compared to that breakout year.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's, that's what's huge. Josh Gordon is a gamble of these guys. You're talking tremendous, tremendous upside. The ceiling can't hold it. But last year, Deshaun Kaiser of quarterbacks in the NFL, he was amongst the top of guys who just, he wanted to go deep all the time, which that fed into Josh Gordon's playstyle. Deshaun Kaiser is gone and now you have, you have Jarvis Landry as an actual underneath weapon, which maybe you're going to buy the narrative that that's going to open things up for Josh Gordon downfield. But now with Jarvis and Duke Johnson, everything is about what quarterback, what are the tendencies of this quarterback coming in for Cleveland? Because it's going to be Tyrod for a few games, which I like that for Josh Gordon. I like that Tyrod scrambles and then just chucks it deep. But eventually it's going to be the rookie and which one comes and takes over and how does he play football?

[Jason Moore]

You know the nice thing though is by setting up with Tyrod Taylor, if Tyrod Taylor establishes Josh Gordon as the lead dog here, the rookie that's going to come in is probably going to try to continue that, not completely change everything up. But. And my problem with Josh Gordon probably.

[Andy Holloway]

Going to be Josh Allen. So that would fit in Josh Allen.

[Jason Moore]

Sam Darnold, I mean we'll find out here.

[Andy Holloway]

Just say for when we want all those 90 yard passes.

[Mike Wright]

Josh Allen. We're right there. We're going to find out soon. Cleveland had the second lowest time of possession in the league. When you talk about bringing in a person like Landry or having Taylor, you have to have an offense that moves to give these guys the potential and the ability to do this. So the team has to improve for Josh Gordon to return any type of value.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The worry I have Josh Gordon's Great monster year, 159 targets. Will he be able to do that with Corey Coleman and with Jarvis Landry and with Duke Johnson and all the other weapons? Because when he did it, the next best receiver on that team was Greg Little.

[Andy Holloway]

How dare you? How dare you besmirch the name of Greg Little.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, well, I mean, look at. I don't think we want to be. I don't think we want to do the next best receiver game on Houston last year. I mean, you can produce, but the team has to be able to move the ball. So he's a gamble. Speaking of gambles, the gamble of gambles.

[Andy Holloway]

Man, I just realized which bet we should have taken.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah, the Des versus Larry versus this guy. Des Bryant, number 19 on our consensus rankings. I would say that I'm just gonna fault.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just going to side this whole entire.

[Mike Wright]

I have him at 24, just sneaking into the top 24. Jason's got him at 14. Mike, you're at 18. Even you, even you have come to your senses about DEZ Bryant. Last year it was as bad as it gets, really. 69 receptions, 32nd most consistent receiver in fantasy football, zero great games, busted 44% of the time. And so when you buy Bryant in this draft, you are buying the comeback. You are buying the hope that he can return to something resembling the 2014 version, the 2013 version of himself. Not what we've seen the last three years with the injuries and the lack of consistency.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I agree. I mean, this Des Bryant might not even be on the Cowboys after the draft. He might be irrelevant. He might be a second wide receiver piece. Hopefully he gets moved, you know, into the slot and push his career a little further down the line like Larry Fitzgerald. There's a lot of question marks around Des here. These are early rankings later in the year if you know, if Larry is standing up better and DEZ is looking bad. A lot of this comes down to what do you believe in Dak Prescott? Because Dak Prescott's had a year and a Half of glory and half a year of absolute garbage. We can't discount the fact of how bad Dak was the second half of last year with, you know, you go watch. I mean, I don't know if many people out there have seen the video of showing every single one. I was going to bring it up, DEZ Bryant's targets. But if you watch that video, you can be kind of convinced that this was not all on Des. I mean, there. These were so many uncatchable balls. But then is Dak going to get better? Is he going to improve? I tend to think that with Zeke and with a healthy offensive line, Dak is going to be all right. And so I'm kind of seeing that go forward. But DEZ is a complete, you know, up in the air until after the draft. Do they draft another high profile rookie? Do they move him? Do they keep him? Those are all question marks. If he stays and the offense is back and Zeke is back, I think Des is going to be a valuable wide receiver too. That's how I see him.

[Andy Holloway]

The thing about Des is you have. This is a, this is a marky mark, George Clooney situation, just an absolute perfect storm. Because the video Jason was talking about, you can check it out and see for yourself. But according to this person's tracking, Dez Bryant had 53 untouchable balls thrown at him. And while 79 targets that he could either touch or catch and he came down with 69 receptions. I don't agree with all of his analysis here, but Jason's right. There are a lot of targets that are credited towards DEZ Bryant that are absolute garbage. On the other hand, Matt Harmon, one of the veterans that he has done for the reception perception is DEZ Bryant. The results are staggeringly bad, just horrific.

[Mike Wright]

When you look at success by route, below average, running the corner, the nine, the post, the dig, the curl, the slant. When you think about those targets in the videos, you said there has to be a grain of salt there because untouchable targets not getting separation, not where you're supposed to be, there's something that falls on you. And if you're looking for those that don't know what reception perception is, maybe a good chance to introduce. You're looking at the player running the route independent of the quarterback and the target. You're looking at the player getting separation, having success running the route. The thing about DEs is these numbers are very much a departure of his previous years.

[Andy Holloway]

Two years ago he was.

[Mike Wright]

Whether he's discouraged, frustrated, whatever the case, may Be he may have the physical ability to come look, if I was having a down year, I'd like to be 64 and be able to come back with the body that he has. And you know, Des could have a down year and still pull down 12 touchdowns. He's done it a couple times before, so you at least have all of the prototypical aspects of a top receiver. But I tend to believe that Des is on the downward trend, and I think Dallas might believe it too.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think I might believe it too. I'm going to keep looking. I mean, I've got a note here. I very well might move Des down even in these early ranks because there are a lot of things he needs to overcome. Whether it's his routes or whether it is Dak Prescott, you are forced to bank on a lot of chips falling the other direction. And it might be just a little bit too much against him and the.

[Andy Holloway]

Other chip that we didn't even bring up the play calling. The utilization of DEZ Bryant's. I mean, he. His highest percentage of routes is really just essentially three routes or so. So you, as a defense, you know what DEZ Bryant's going to do. You got to move around. You got to be creative. Will DEZ acknowledge and take the veteran role of. It's time to move inside. It's time to move to the slot.

[Jason Moore]

Man, I don't think the offensive minds there are creative enough to even do that.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, what do you think about that, Judge Giamatti? Can I get a ruling on Dallas's play calling garbage? Yay.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

My. The final player on our 11 through 20 list I'm excited to talk about. I figured out the two wide receivers I want this year on my roster.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow.

[Mike Wright]

So Stefan Diggs is number 20. I have him at 17. Jason 18, Mike 23. Stefan Diggs is Sammy Watkins in the sense that I want the better value of the combo. Okay. If I was just checking out adps, if I wanted to go running back heavy in a draft, like really running back heavy and go running back, running back, running back. Or maybe I want to go running back value on Gronk running back. I want my two wide outs to be Stefan Diggs and Sammy Watkins. I can get them in the fourth and fifth round. And because both players have a similar situation, I don't think Diggs is any less talented than Thielen. I don't think Watkins is any less talented than Tyreek Hill. Both of them have new quarterbacks, right? Kirk Cousins coming in. Pat Mahomes Coming in the world doesn't know what those relationships between, you know, what the rapport will be. And so I'm going to take the better value and the talent, knowing that the opportunity is going to be there. Diggs, Mike and I, we were looking at this yesterday. The Thielen, Diggs in the red zone thing is crazy. Thielen is bad in the red zone. Fourth worst, I think on targets in terms of converting them. Yeah. Catch percentage. Diggs is 85% in the red zone. He scored eight times last year. He's only six foot. You would think that six, three Thielen would get it done. But Diggs got it done last year and look for him, he's got to stay healthy. He only played 14 games last year. Never played a full season in the NFL. But I might be willing to take that chance if I can get a value.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, last year what was nice was that Diggs, There was only four games when he had fewer than 50 yards or didn't have a touchdown. So you knew at least you were getting, you were getting points. He wasn't destroying you. And the upside of when Stefan Diggs has himself a monster game, It's a, it's 150 with a touchdown. It's a, it's a weak winning type of performance that Diggs has. I like that the touchdowns went up from three to eight because they moved him outside. So it's. I feel, I feel very bizarre here being the lowest on Stefan Diggs when he was. This was my dude last year. So I feel like I'm in one of those, those body switch movies.

[Jason Moore]

Well, no one here is against Diggs, including you. True. You know, last year on a per game basis, which, you know, Diggs missed a couple games on a per game. Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs were number 12 and number 13 back to back, 12.1 fantasy points, 11.9. And that's including the fact that Thielen got two games that were sans digs. So that they were probably identical fantasy points. The reason why I still lean heavily on Adam Thielen side, even though the value might be better on Diggs is because of the. How the, how they come about. And that could change this year as new quarterback. But assuming that they stayed the same role in the system, the same read you're talking about, you know, 143 targets for Adam Thielen with close to 100 receptions. He's kind of the more possession guy last year in that system. So they're both very involved. But I think the consistency will be will be there for Thiel?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'd rather have Thielen if I've taken draft position out of the equation and that's how we ranked them.

[Jason Moore]

I just think as the, as the season gets closer and closer and closer, you're going to see these guys back to back. You're going to see, you're going to see Thielen fallen digs rise and they're going to be so close in the rankings and that's really. Yeah, I really do.

[Mike Wright]

Why do you think that's going to happen? Are people just going to look at last year's stats?

[Jason Moore]

Look when people get respected people like Diggs and when people get disrespected year after year in fantasy adp, it usually doesn't stop and that, you know, this would be year three for Thielen and I think he'll continue to drop.

[Mike Wright]

Year three, right?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, last year was his breakout year.

[Jason Moore]

Year two. Yeah, but you saw it at the end of. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, he was. It was three years ago that he broke out.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Adam coming into this season 11. Doug Baldwin 12. Tyree Kill 13. Ty Hilton 14. Amari Cooper 15. Larry Fitzgerald 16 Alshon Jeffrey 17. Allen Robinson 18. Josh Gordon 19. Does Bryant 20. Stefan Diggs. And then you can leave all of your comments with your angry player that we left out of the top 20. There's one in particular they're going to be changing. That is the beauty of the offseason. We will be updating ranks consistently and if you've got the ultimate draft kit@ultimate draftkit.com you'll see those changes. You'll also see our rookie rankings right after the NFL draft. We'll drop in there so you're ready for your dynasty drafts.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason's Amari Cooper flower. Which pedal is he pulled off recently? Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we're going to spend spare no expense building out a complex.

[Jason Moore]

I've got the chart started. I'm keeping it under my laptop whole off season leading up to draft day and at the end I'm going to see who did I, which side did I take more often than I'm just going to go all in. I'm going to bury him or he's number one.

[Mike Wright]

The important thing is you recognize your problem.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, check out draft.com ballers play some basketball. The absolute best ball experience for you this offseason. I encourage you to check it out. We'll see you next time.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our Fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on TwitterFFballers.