Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: Fantasy Football 2018 - Rookie Review: 2017 RBs & QBs
Release Date: January 30, 2018

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, where hosts Andy Holloway and Mike Wright dive deep into the performance and future prospects of rookie running backs (RBs) and quarterbacks (QBs) from the 2017 NFL season. This episode serves as a comprehensive review, assessing how these rookies have fared, where projections may have missed the mark, and what fantasy football owners should anticipate for the upcoming season.

Running Back Analysis

Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette, drafted fourth overall, showcased his potential but also raised concerns regarding efficiency and injury susceptibility.

• Performance Review: Fournette demonstrated strong physical attributes and a high volume of carries. However, his efficiency was questionable, recording just 10+ yards on 18 of 268 carries—a rate comparable to seasoned backs like Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson ("24:04").

• Injury Concerns: Fournette battled ankle and foot issues, which limited his performance and raised doubts about his durability moving forward.

• Fantasy Projection: Despite inefficiencies, Fournette remains a top RB1 due to his volume. Fantasy players should consider him a high-risk, high-reward option, especially if he can stay healthy and improve his efficiency.

  "I'm just saying that a lot of fantasy players out there are going to be scrambling to get Leonard Fournette on their team, and I will take him if he falls to me." – Andy Holloway [26:47]

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey emerged as a versatile back with significant pass-catching duties, positioning himself as a valuable asset in PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues.

• Performance Review: McCaffrey led RBs in targets, averaging 7.1 receptions per game. However, his catch percentage was lower than expected, impacting his overall efficiency.

• Fantasy Projection: In full PPR formats, McCaffrey could rival Fournette as a top-tier running back, given his dual-threat capability. His ability to exceed Fournette in half-point and full-point leagues makes him a compelling choice.

  "Christian McCaffrey in full PPR, he's going to be closer to Fournette, but he doesn't have the same touchdown upside we saw him." – Andy Holloway [27:51]

Dalvin Cook vs. Joe Mixon

Comparing Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon highlights considerations around potential, team dynamics, and injury risks.

• Dalvin Cook: Cook faced an ACL injury early in the season but showed promise upon his return. His role in Minnesota's offense suggests he could be a reliable RB1 when healthy.

  "Dalvin Cook is coming back and what? He moonlights for other teams." – Andy Holloway [30:07]

• Joe Mixon: Mixon's performance fluctuated with inconsistent rushing efficiency and shared backfield responsibilities. While he possesses strong pass-catching skills, his overall impact remains uncertain.

  "Joe Mixon was good. He was elite out of the backfield." – Mike Wright [33:16]

Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt solidified his role as a lead running back, leading the league in rushing touchdowns and demonstrating reliable volume.

• Performance Review: Hunt's consistent production and role as RB1 make him a dependable choice for fantasy teams, though occasional fluctuations in usage may occur.

  "Kareem Hunt, this is his job. And I think he's going to be a running back one." – Andy Holloway [40:10]

Other Notable Running Backs

• Deontay Foreman: Foreman showed flashes of potential before an Achilles tear. If healthy, he could be a valuable mid-round pick due to his big-play ability.

• James Conner: Projected as a handcuff with potential to emerge as a starter in Pittsburgh, Conner remains a speculative but intriguing option.

  "James Conner, if he's the starting running back for Pittsburgh, he becomes very interesting." – Andy Holloway [44:08]

• Other Rookies: The episode also touches on players like Samaj P. Ryan, Wayne Gallman, and Austin Ekeler, analyzing their roles and future prospects based on team dynamics and performance.

Quarterback Analysis

Mitch Trubisky

Trubisky’s rookie season was marred by inconsistent performance, leading to questions about his future role and effectiveness.

• Performance Review: Trubisky struggled with efficiency, particularly in touchdowns, ranking poorly compared to established quarterbacks.

  "There are only two quarterbacks with a worse touchdown percentage: Mitch Trubisky, C.J. Beathard, and Brian Hoyer." – Andy Holloway [54:16]

• Fantasy Projection: With a new offensive coordinator and potential weapons, there is cautious optimism about Trubisky's ability to improve and become a viable fantasy quarterback.

  "There's a possibility of a big second-year leap for Mitch Trubisky with the offensive minds coming into Chicago." – Mike Wright [53:43]

Deshaun Watson

Watson's ACL tear raises concerns about his recovery and future performance, though his pre-injury performance indicates high potential.

• Performance Review: Before his injury, Watson was on pace for an unprecedented number of touchdowns, but his efficiency metrics remain unrealistic projections.

  "Deshaun Watson has got to be going crazy... 9.3% touchdown rate—that is impossible for a second year." – Andy Holloway [57:22]

• Fantasy Projection: Watson is expected to return as a strong fantasy option, but the severity of his injury and subsequent recovery will be crucial factors.

  "Can Deshaun Watson be a good fantasy quarterback coming off his ACL tear? I think so." – Mike Wright [58:18]

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes, known for his arm talent, is projected to benefit from Andy Reid's offensive system, potentially making him a top fantasy quarterback.

• Performance Review: As a rookie, Mahomes showed flashes of brilliance but also had room for improvement in decision-making and reducing interceptions.

• Fantasy Projection: Mahomes is viewed as a top 15 QB with the potential to climb higher as he gains experience and fits into Reid's scheme.

  "Patrick Mahomes, you have to be optimistic. I’m going to top 15. Top 15 is fine." – Andy Holloway [59:17]

DeShone Kizer

Kizer's limited experience and inconsistent performance leave his future role as a starting quarterback uncertain.

• Performance Review: Kizer struggled in his rookie season, reflecting poorly on his touchdown rate and overall effectiveness.

  "He was thrown to the wolves... seeing what this team can do, how do you not just say, alright, Mitch, the second half of the season is yours because he's old." – Andy Holloway [55:03]

• Fantasy Projection: Kizer is unlikely to be a reliable fantasy option unless significant improvements are made in his performance and team support.

  "I think he's unlikely to be the quarterback. I wouldn’t call him a career backup." – Andy Holloway [61:04]

Mailbag and Trade Advice

Question 1: Should I trade Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones for the number three overall pick in the rookie draft?

• Response: Both hosts agree that trading away Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones for a high draft pick is advisable due to the depth and potential of upcoming rookies.

  "The answer is I would do that... If Tampa, let's say Geist, ends up in Tampa Bay, he probably doesn't slip to 103 for you." – Andy Holloway [62:33]

Question 2: How do I convince my work league to switch to a half-point per reception league from standard?

• Response: The hosts suggest emphasizing the increased excitement and strategic depth that half-point PPR formats offer, making player value more dynamic and engaging.

  "It increases the player pool, makes it more fun. You learn more about the league because you're going to have to dive deeper into who you can actually use." – Andy Holloway [67:09]

Key Takeaways

• RB Depth and Projections: The 2017 rookie RBs present a mix of high-upside players and those with questionable efficiency. Fournette and McCaffrey stand out, while others like Cook and Mixon require careful consideration based on team dynamics and health.

• QB Future Looks: While some rookies like Mahomes show promise, others like Trubisky and Kizer face significant challenges. Deshaun Watson’s recovery will be pivotal for his fantasy value.

• Strategic Trades: Leveraging depth by trading established RBs for high draft picks can yield long-term benefits, especially in dynasty leagues.

• Scoring Formats Matter: Advocating for half-point PPR leagues can enhance the fantasy experience by broadening player value and strategic options.

Conclusion

Andy Holloway and Mike Wright provide insightful analysis into the rookie RBs and QBs from the 2017 NFL season, offering valuable projections and strategic advice for fantasy football enthusiasts. As the 2018 season approaches, their evaluations help owners make informed decisions on draft picks, trades, and team management to secure a competitive edge in their leagues.

Notable Quotes:

• "I'm just saying that a lot of fantasy players out there are going to be scrambling to get Leonard Fournette on their team, and I will take him if he falls to me." – Andy Holloway [26:47]

• "Christian McCaffrey in full PPR, he's going to be closer to Fournette, but he doesn't have the same touchdown upside we saw him." – Andy Holloway [27:51]

• "Patrick Mahomes, you have to be optimistic. I’m going to top 15. Top 15 is fine." – Andy Holloway [59:17]

• "It increases the player pool, makes it more fun. You learn more about the league because you're going to have to dive deeper into who you can actually use." – Andy Holloway [67:09]

For more insights and detailed analyses, subscribe to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast and join their community at thefantasyfootballers.com. Follow them on Twitter @theffballers for the latest updates and discussions.