
Fantasy Football Podcast for January 30th, 2018. The Fantasy Footballers are back with another important offseason episode. On today’s show, we do a deep dive review on the Rookie RBs and QBs. Did rookie RBs make a bigger impact than ever in 2017? Who b
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Andy Holloway
Hey, Foot Clan. Today's show is brought to you by fantasychamps.com I know there's some slackers out there. They're thinking, you know, I won my fantasy championship. Now is the time. Stop slacking. Go get that gear. Go show off that Foot Clan title. Fantasy Champs has everything you need. Custom fantasy football jerseys, trophies, rings, belts. Ladies and gentlemen, we've seen a lot of fantasy football championship belts, and these are the absolute jump on fantasychamps.com right now. Check everything out and you can save a little bit of money with the promo code. Ballers. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Draft Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Oh, yeah, yeah. Mike and Jake Rizzen. The. He's out.
Mike Wright
Hey, I'm here.
Andy Holloway
Andy is here as well. Jason Moore is off enjoying a nice vacation. Brooks is here, and you might go. Wait a minute. Mike only hosts when. When Andy is off.
Mike Wright
This is as close as we've gotten to a one man show. So I am present.
Andy Holloway
He's struggling.
Mike Wright
I'm present. I don't know if I'm here.
Andy Holloway
Andy.
Mike Wright
I'm trying.
Andy Holloway
Andy is dealing with a vocal sensation.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
I asphyxiation.
Mike Wright
I've been running away from bears such as Jay Grizz for a while, screaming, apparently. I don't know why I can't get my voice back.
Andy Holloway
I have been a week.
Mike Wright
Half a voice.
Andy Holloway
I got. I got a voice and a half and a bear. So we are good to go.
Mike Wright
This thing started to go when we went to fsta, which, by the way, shout out to the Foot Clan.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
For the, you know, lifting us up, giving us that best social media award.
Andy Holloway
Got that, Josh Groban.
Mike Wright
And the best thing that can happen when you go to a conference where your whole objective is talking to people is to completely lose your voice. So I'm here. I have, like, my cup of tea and I have my hashtag footclant title shirt on.
Andy Holloway
So you're gonna be. You'll be the captain, but the. Whoa.
Mike Wright
The Jay Grizz will be there too.
Andy Holloway
The big quiet J. Grizz. You'll cap. I will be the. The voice of the captain.
Mike Wright
I'm going to just basically lob you softballs.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
Because that's all you can handle.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
And then you'll just answer.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. No fastballs, please.
Mike Wright
We have the rookie review on the show today.
Andy Holloway
It's the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Thank you for tuning in.
Mike Wright
They know that, don't they?
Andy Holloway
There's some new people.
Mike Wright
That guy with a really Nice voice. Introduced us. Oh, I am wearing my hashtag footclant title T shirt, which you can see on the YouTube now. I won this and I'm trying to remember. That was over you.
Andy Holloway
That was.
Mike Wright
And you still owe me a ring.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
And I was feeling kind of generous today and I kind of want those.
Andy Holloway
Slackers I was talking about for fans. I'm one of them.
Mike Wright
I wanted to troll you specifically. So Untrollable. If you've won a Foot Clan title, you can get these@shopballers.com and just for today, if you use the promo code Mike's tears, you can say it's already in there. You can save 10%.
Andy Holloway
Oh, come on.
Mike Wright
So Mike's tears will give you 10% off the Foot Clan title shirt@shopballers.com I just. I woke up and I needed to do something to celebrate.
Andy Holloway
I see. And my pain is your gain. Foot Clan.
Mike Wright
That's right.
Andy Holloway
Get that 10%. So this may be obvious, Andy, Is that no apostrophe in there? Just all one word?
Mike Wright
Just Mike's Tears.
Andy Holloway
Okay. Yeah.
Mike Wright
No apostrophe.
Andy Holloway
All right. Well, welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast. We are doing a rookie review. We're coming off the hot series where we talked the truth about all the positions. You can go back. That's evergreen content. Check it out. How did a player perform? Did they actually help you? Despite. Maybe they finished as a running back one, but did they actually help you? Were they just terrible on the road? All of that stuff? You can go back and check those shows out. Today's quick question comes from. Love it from Willem. J. De Grief says which rookie player who didn't break out this year will break out next year? And we'll go to our guest analysis or guest analyst. That's right. J. Grizz is going with Tariq Cohen, who had a mini miniature breakout.
Mike Wright
Really, Jay?
Andy Holloway
Yeah. He says John Fox is out. Matt Nagy is in, former OC from the Chiefs.
Mike Wright
Plus Jordan Howard's too good. That's. That's my truth. I believe that Jordan's too good.
Andy Holloway
I think that if you get some innovative things happening with the Chicago Bears, that both Jordan Howard and 3Cone can be fantasy relevant. Because Jordan Howard, as good as he is, he's a grinder. He's a two down guy. He. Everyone could catch the ball in the NFL, but that is not his specialty. We saw them lose week one because of them stone hands. I'll jump in here and mine's a.
Mike Wright
Little bit, by the way. We'll talk about Trubisky and the impact of, I mean this is the rookie show for running backs and quarterbacks. So we'll talk about both of those.
Andy Holloway
And the new head coach I'm going with Chris Godwin.
Mike Wright
I really like it.
Andy Holloway
Wide receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers he was picked in the third round. He didn't do a ton last year but he, he was one of the receivers that was highlighted in our ultimate draft kit. Matt Harmon. He features the reception perception. He's from NFL.com Matt Harmon and he breaks down how good are these players? How can they separate? And he looked at the college tape of Chris Godwin and he loved him. And so that caused us to take a, you know, a deeper look. And sure enough, Chris Godwin was an excellent wide receiver. He just didn't have a ton of opportunity with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson was the big free agent splash. But once he got in there, he produced Week 9 against the Jets. He had to come in. He played on 97% of snaps, 10 targets, 5 for 68. And then the final four games he played over 50% of snaps. And in three of those games he had at least 68 yards or more including the final two weeks a 98 yard game and then a 111 with a touchdown. Chris Godwin is an excellent player. He's going to be a later round value. Who I think has the, who has the opportunity to break out because Jameis Winston in that second half, once Chris Godwin was playing, Jameis Winston played a lot better.
Mike Wright
How much depends on D. Jacks and Cameron Brait. Maybe, you know, coming back as an rfa.
Andy Holloway
I think that it's just Humphreys where.
Mike Wright
Pronounced with an umphrey.
Andy Holloway
It's pronounced with an umphrey still. But Chris Godwin I think will will be that third wide receiver. DeSean Jackson will still be there, but Chris Godwin. Now I'm not calling for a wide receiver 1 wide receiver 2 level of a breakout unless something were to happen to Mike Evans or desean Jackson. But I think Chris Godwin is going to be a great late round flyer.
Mike Wright
I have to throw Corey Davis out there.
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Mike Wright
And that one's probably going to be a popular pick but for a reason. He did not break out, right?
Andy Holloway
No, he did not.
Mike Wright
And we saw flashes in the playoffs. Eric Decker is a free agent going on his age 32 season. He's not going to be back in my opinion. Harry Douglas will be gone. And so you're talking about a new regime coming in with Adam Vrabel with a New offensive coordinator now. They signed him this morning. Matt LaFleur from formerly of the Rams. And an opportunity for a really big guy who has a lot of skill, a lot of talent. I mean, he. You just talked about Godwin. What's he going to be? He's going to be a late round value. Davis has a chance to be a one or a two.
Andy Holloway
Oh, certainly.
Mike Wright
I mean, a top 15 guy.
Andy Holloway
You're going to have to pay up for Corey Davis. So I bet he's drafted.
Mike Wright
So let me. Let me throw this out there while I still have a voice to do. So if Landry leaves Miami and it's Parker is the one there, would you even count Parker as the one? Or are you still thinking it's still.
Andy Holloway
I would say Kenny Stills, who has actual production the past two years.
Mike Wright
Would you. So you'd like Davis over Parker even if Landry left?
Andy Holloway
If Landry leaves.
Mike Wright
If Landry left, would you draft Davis over Parker?
Andy Holloway
Man, that theoretical upside of devonte Parker is so enticing.
Mike Wright
It's just sitting there. But they won't. I mean, Tannehill will be back.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I think I would go with Corey Davis, but they are going to.
Mike Wright
Be making that decision in Dynasty. It's tough.
Andy Holloway
Oh, you had a trade offer?
Mike Wright
Well, I've been going back and forth. Do I want to ship Parker out?
Andy Holloway
Do tell.
Mike Wright
Would I ship Parker out with a little something to get Corey Davis because I like Davis so much.
Andy Holloway
No, no, no. I want to hear this. You got to break this down for.
Mike Wright
The Foot Clan right now. I have an alpha out there that I have sent. Sending devonte Parker.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Mike Wright
And Mack Hollins in Dynasty away for Corey Davis. Oh, I would do that if you were who?
Andy Holloway
I would. I want the Corey Davis side of that trade.
Mike Wright
Yeah, so do I.
Andy Holloway
Just. That's. I mean, that would be. That would be an Andy Hollow.
Mike Wright
Now, I've said it on the air and it's not going to happen.
Andy Holloway
Well, while Brooks is editing and publishing. You got to push this hard before. Before your league mate hears it.
Mike Wright
That's true. I need to send him a message right now.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Now, if he thinks he's smarter than me and better than me at fantasy, he'll obviously do the deal to outsmart me. You know what I'm saying?
Andy Holloway
I send him this episode right away.
Mike Wright
Oh, because you're in my division.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
And I'm the defending champion of the world. Yes. Okay. I wanted to remind people one way you can help support the show other than sending me like lozenges is you can actually support us on itunes on the Apple Podcast. Apple podcasts, yes, it is the Apple podcast app. A lot of people still refer to it as itunes. I am a man of the people. I want to make sure that everybody understands what's going on.
Andy Holloway
You got to let the people know.
Mike Wright
That it's Apple Podcasts so you can drop us a review on there. We read those on the show from time to time and they really help support the podcast, which is free. Brooks, I'm sure you've left us a review before.
Andy Holloway
Oh yeah.
Mike Wright
Okay, that's Good. The website's thefantasyfootballers.com we are going to start the pre sales on the UDK oh very soon. Probably Super Bowl Sunday.
Andy Holloway
What?
Mike Wright
Yeah. So best possible price on the UDK, 10,000 plus. People understand the value of the UDK. All you got to do is look on Twitter, put in the hashtag udk@the ff ballers. You'll see people's reviews.
Andy Holloway
That's the ultimate draft kit.
Mike Wright
That is right. You'll be ready for 2018. Thank you, Brooks. Let's get into the news.
Andy Holloway
News and notes from around the league. Well, there was some interesting news last week. We had already recorded the show and then this broke that the WWE chairman Vince McMahon will be relaunching the XFL. He hopes to get it off the ground January 2020. And my Twitter feed, my mentions, they.
Mike Wright
Want the commentary now. Is Ronda Rousey going to play quarterback maybe?
Andy Holloway
No, she is in the WWE now.
Mike Wright
I'm just trying to figure out what's going to happen here. 20 years later. The XFL back.
Andy Holloway
Wow. Was 20 years. Wow.
Mike Wright
You know it was a long time ago and there's already been a 30 for 30 about it. So.
Andy Holloway
But so my mentions, our, all of our mentions were. Was the XFL podcast. Not currently scheduled, but we will see.
Mike Wright
We're not going to compete with the NFL.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. We're not going to break things down. The xfl who knows. It's all about good football. I think that if they put out a good product, people will watch because people love football. I love football. If they can figure out how it's an eight team league. If they can get eight good quarterbacks.
Mike Wright
Right.
Andy Holloway
But here's the thing. NFL can't get 32 good quarterbacks.
Mike Wright
Can't get a good quarterback.
Andy Holloway
So good luck with that. But you know, we wish them the best of luck. Bill center very unfortunate news. Eric Wood, he has to retire from the NFL after nine seasons. An excellent, an excellent center. He was 16th the 16th ranked center last year according to Pro Football Focus. This was. They gave him a postseason physical and I mean, luckily for Eric Wood, they caught something in his neck that was a problem that is forcing him to retire. So, Eric Wood, best of luck with your life. My friend Tom Brady had his stitches removed, so he's not going to be.
Mike Wright
As good this week.
Andy Holloway
That says big news. So now is it possible that Tom Brady, he's not a snitch, is he?
Mike Wright
Because snitches get stitches.
Andy Holloway
That's what I've. That's what I've heard.
Mike Wright
Probably. Probably not.
Andy Holloway
Did he snitch on Rex Burkin?
Mike Wright
I think people snitch on him with the flake gate on the video and those things.
Andy Holloway
So Gronk, Rob Gronkowski, he is. He's returned to practice. He's still in the protocol, but he's.
Mike Wright
Not going to miss another Super Bowl.
Andy Holloway
He. Yeah, I fully expect Rob Gronkowski to play. Robbie Anderson has pleaded not guilty on nine. Nine charges.
Mike Wright
This. Rob is not going to be in the Super Bowl.
Andy Holloway
Man.
Mike Wright
Did you just realize it was nine charges?
Andy Holloway
I knew it was bad and I, because I read some of them, I didn't realize it was up to nine charges.
Mike Wright
You can get eight charges thrown out and still end up suspended.
Andy Holloway
That is a. You can get cleared on all nine charges and still get suspended.
Mike Wright
Not good.
Andy Holloway
ESPN's Adam Schefter report. Blake. Blake the Snake Blake. Oh, do we got that?
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
He had a surgery on his right wrist last Friday. So. Ladies and gentlemen, Blake Bortles, who's playing sensational football through. I mean, not the first game in the playoffs, but that.
Mike Wright
Brooks is shaking his head.
Andy Holloway
But the next two games. Would you define sensational football? Did you see Blake Bortles against the Pats? I think sensational is a stretch. No, Blake Bortles played great.
Mike Wright
You know, it's hard because I blame Bortles and Marone equally for what happened because it was one part you don't give your opportunity. You don't give an opportunity to the quarterback to show you whether he can do anything. But then Bortles has also shown you so much that he doesn't deserve the opportunity.
Andy Holloway
But my point was simply he did all that. He was hurt with a bum wrist. So next year, look out.
Mike Wright
Yeah, he'll be the best backup in the league next year.
Andy Holloway
Oh, he's starting next year.
Mike Wright
You think so?
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I do think so.
Mike Wright
You want to do a really.
Andy Holloway
Oh, yeah. Put it on off. Put it on the board. I mean, water bet all Right.
Mike Wright
We'll bet on that. I don't think he's starting.
Andy Holloway
I do think he will start.
Mike Wright
If I were Tom Coughlin, I would do everything in my power to get Alex Smith. Alex Smith is the most perfect piece. Oh, the Jags you could possibly have.
Andy Holloway
You can get out.
Mike Wright
They're a Super bowl winning team easily with Alex Smith, at least in.
Andy Holloway
In the Super Bowl.
Mike Wright
Yes. They were close this year with Blake Bortles.
Andy Holloway
That's what I'm saying. What? Yeah. So we shall see. Ian Rapaport says Andrew Luck is very close to throwing. Andrew Luck's been very close to throwing now for two years.
Mike Wright
He's got to be going crazy. Andrew Luck has got to be going crazy.
Andy Holloway
Rapaport also saying. Talking about dynasty here. Darren Sprouls is leaning towards returning for the 2018 season. Darren Sprouls is an unrestricted free agent. If you are playing in Dynasty, check.
Mike Wright
Interesting.
Andy Holloway
Your waiver wire. Go. You can go ahead and peek because I picked him up a couple weeks ago.
Mike Wright
Dang it, man. Dang it. Mike's tears. Use the promo code. Mike's tears.
Andy Holloway
Yes. @shopballers.com But Darren Sprols, he only played three games. Well, two and a half. Whatever. But he still had juice. We'll see what happens. Will he be back with the Eagles? They do have Corey Clement who played great this year. They have Donell Pumphrey.
Mike Wright
I don't think he'll be back with the Eagles. We'll see. I want to circle back to the Andrew Luck thing. I posted a question on Twitter.
Andy Holloway
Oh, yeah.
Mike Wright
That I thought would be really close. So with McDaniels coming in and Luck seemingly. We think he'll return. I was curious what the Ty Hilton versus Tyreek Hill hype would be. Who would go higher? And I know there's a lot of stuff that has to happen, but I threw it out there. 6,000 people voted. 51% would take Ty Hilton, 49% Tyree kill.
Andy Holloway
And I don't know who I would take.
Mike Wright
I guess the question was more who's going to be drafted higher in next year's fantasy drafts. They predicted Cy Hilton. I would take Tyree Kill right now. And I.
Andy Holloway
Even if it's Pat Mahomes.
Mike Wright
Yes. And I want to bring that up because I'm not sure that's not better. I really don't. I. I think Tyreek Hill is a really good wide receiver, and I'm not sure it's not an actual upgrade for his stock. This is not a. This is not a wide receiver 3. This is not a late round wide. This is a one. Tyree Kill is a one. And this is an established offense. Not. Not a team that, you know, has a broken offensive line and a lot of issues. No running back. You know, talk of the Colts taking Saquon Barkley at three. That's their current state of affairs.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
So I would take Tyree Kill.
Andy Holloway
All right. In further news, we have coaching news. So Schefter is confirming the Colts will hire the Patriots OC Josh McDaniels. The Cardinals hired ex Broncos OC Mike McCoy as our offensive coordinator. And he is also alluded to he believes Larry Fitzgerald will be back with the Arizona Cardinals. We shall see.
Mike Wright
I was reading that this morning. He's.
Andy Holloway
It's all in the quarterback.
Mike Wright
Yeah. So I, I think that Fitz will be back.
Andy Holloway
You do?
Mike Wright
I do. He's. He's.
Andy Holloway
Even if the quarterback is a rookie, I don't know.
Mike Wright
I think he'll be back. I think he's got a. Too big of a piece of the offensive pie. Which represents more records, which represents solidifying his legacy and he's playing it too high of a lot.
Andy Holloway
He's locked. First ballot hall of Fame.
Mike Wright
Okay. Solidifying isn't the right word. Accentuating, adding to, sure, but building. He has Jerry Rice records that are within reach. Some of them, yeah. So I'm just saying he, I. He's playing at such a high level. I think he'll be back.
Andy Holloway
Right, but it's at what cost to your body when you know there's little to no. If it's a rookie, if it's a rookie quarterback, you have little to no chance of making the playoffs.
Mike Wright
I don't think Super Bowl. I think it'll be a veteran they bring in. All right, Blake Bortles.
Andy Holloway
Then he's starting and then you have lost the water.
Mike Wright
That's true. I will have lost if that happens. In more ways than one.
Andy Holloway
Excellent news for the show. The former Saints or Saints tight end coach Guns Mahoney.
Mike Wright
Dan Campbell. Guns Mahoney.
Andy Holloway
Guns Mahoney will interview for the Vikings OC vacancy. Dirt Cutter actually going to bring in a full time offensive coordinator. Thank you. Dirk Cutter. And we talked about the Titans had some coaching changes as well. We kind of already brought those up. Before we jump into the rookie review, you had a finger up.
Mike Wright
No, I'm going to jump in first.
Andy Holloway
Go ahead.
Mike Wright
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Andy Holloway
He's probably there.
Mike Wright
He's probably there. Different options and daily auctions every single day, hundreds of them. They have these new 10 minute auctions you can check out. It's free to browse and you can, you can get a deal. I mean our entire studio is covered in memorabilia from Pristine Auction. They are a local company near us. We get to go and check out their, you know, entire warehouse and they're great guys and they stand by their product. So check them out@pristine auction.com recently. Look that Tyreek Hill that you know who I like more than Ty Hilton Jersey just went for $79.85. Autographed authentic JSA certified A logo football from Tyreek Hill. 46 bucks. So there are deals to be had. Pristineauction.com P R I S T I.
Andy Holloway
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Mike Wright
Oh my gosh. I have my wife's birthday and Valentine's Day.
Andy Holloway
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Mike Wright
Are you going to get it for me?
Andy Holloway
Oh yeah, sure.
Mike Wright
That's a reward.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Mike's tears. You get nothing from me but my wife will be getting this. There's only one way to get 20% off a perfectly paired gift. Over $29 featuring beautiful blooms from proflowers and freshly dipped strawberries from Sherry's Berries. Visit proflowers.com today. Enter the code footballers at checkout. That's proflowers.com, code footballers rookie review.
Mike Wright
I like that draw.
Andy Holloway
Thank you.
Mike Wright
Sounds better than my Voice.
Andy Holloway
It's fresh.
Mike Wright
All right.
Andy Holloway
Fresh from the factory.
Mike Wright
Talk about how we're breaking these down and what we're going over today.
Andy Holloway
So what we're doing, you know, rookie review, we're going to look at. That's how some rookies performed, which you'll notice that a lot of these running backs were featured in the Truth episodes. But we're also going to talk a little bit about what we, how we projected these guys, where we hit, where we missed, and then a little bit of future speculation of how we foresee them in the 2018 season.
Mike Wright
Well, a lot of it comes down to talent and opportunity. Right. A lot of these players have a lot of king, a lot of talent, but will the chips fall where they need to to get them into a relevant role in 2018? And some of them have already established themselves and others haven't. And we want to kind of give you that heads up where we think it's headed. So let's start with Fournette. I mean, he was. We're going to go in the order. We're going to start at running back. We're going to go in the order of where they were drafted in terms of the NFL draft, these offensive pieces, these running backs. Now Fournette, we already talked about him. He was the eighth best running back, the fifth most consistent and had a great. I mean, this is a successful year.
Andy Holloway
Yes, it's definitely a successful year. There are a. There are still a couple red flags. I mean, you're talking some very strong inefficiencies. He only had 10 plus yards. He had 10 or more yards on just 18 of 268 carries. That's very low. That's Frank Gore, DeMarco Murray, Adrian Peterson. I mean, that's fourth worst. That's. That's not what you want from a.
Mike Wright
It's not what you expected from a.
Andy Holloway
Fourth overall pick running back for what.
Mike Wright
Has a great defense way, has great top speed. How much of this is. See, when I look at that number, that's based on percentage of carries. So one, he got many more carries than Gore, Peterson and DeMarco.
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Mike Wright
Secondly, he battled through injury this year.
Andy Holloway
And injuries are also a concern for me.
Mike Wright
Right. No, I agree with that. And then there's the element of a lot of those carries where, look, this is a defensive team. You run out the clock at the end of the game so your percentage goes down. I did expect more breakthrough, breakout plays from him, but between the injuries and the inefficiencies, you're still looking at him as a top what?
Andy Holloway
Yes. It's hard to not put him at a running back one. I'm not trying to be real contrarian here and say Leonard Fournette is a.
Mike Wright
Bust but he's not a third down guy.
Andy Holloway
Well and I was just going to say fewer receptions than DeMarco Murray, Andre Ellington and Matt Forte. So this was one of my concerns.
Mike Wright
Jordan Howard.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. So Fournette coming out of college. I know Jason loved him. You did as well Andy. I was a little more skeptical and just because of what are running backs today in the NFL of They need to be versatile. They need to be able to catch the ball and that wasn't in Fournette's profile. I wasn't saying he can't do it. It's just the production in college wasn't there. They didn't use him as that. They have TJ Eldon who is TJ Elden is a good running back and TJ Eldon is a good pass catcher. They had Corey Grant. We'll see if he comes back or not. But I don't think Fournette will be that full three down running back that you that you really want or need in fantasy. He'll still be a running back one with that volume but the injuries are concerned are a concern. Lower leg, ankle, foot. He had issues in college. He had issues this year. So they're just there will he won't be an automatic top five pick for me and I don't maybe that's not a hot take or anything but I think that a lot of fantasy players out there are going to be scrambling to get Leonard Fournette on their team and I will take him if he falls to me.
Mike Wright
Well, let's contrast him with Christian McCaffrey running back for the Carolina Panthers ended up the number 11 for fantasy running back, the 23rd most consistent. I'm not as concerned with the consistency numbers on these rookies if their role is established as they grow into, you know, these fantasy forces like these early guys will now. He averaged 7.1 targets per game. That was the number one at the running back position overall. You have a team and a player in Cam Newton that did not have an offense that featured the running back the way that they tried to feature McCaffrey this year. How do you see McCaffrey projecting forward? Because I think he has the widest range.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Mike Wright
And I think he has the opportunity to where whether you take him over Fournette next year or not, he absolutely has the ability in a half point league or a full point league to outperform Fournette. So what do you see for his.
Andy Holloway
Future in a full ppr? I think you can have that as a real conversation of Christian McCaffrey or Leonard Fournette. I mean 80 receptions this year and we, we featured this in the, in the Truth episodes, but just he had the most running back targets but that only translated to the third most running back receptions. His actual catch percentage was not what you had hoped and I don't think, I don't really put that on Christian McCaffrey. But I'm not going to say Cam Newton can't grow in that role, get an off season, a second season, getting used to that. So Christian McCaffrey in full PPR, he's going to be, I think closer to Fournette, but he doesn't have the same touchdown upside we saw him. You know, he did score five receiving touchdowns is great.
Mike Wright
Jonathan Stewart is still going to be back.
Andy Holloway
Jonathan Stewart is under contract. He is a. He has a cap hit of $5.2 million or a one and a half million dollar dead cap. So they could save close to $4 million by cutting Jonathan Stewart. My point in saying that is even if they do that, I think that they will draft a big bruiser guy because they don't want.
Mike Wright
You can't give them 200.
Andy Holloway
They won't do that with Christian McCaffrey. Even he has. He had such massive success running. It's as a runner in college. So it would be interesting to see what he can actually do. It wasn't.
Mike Wright
That is where he struggled this year.
Andy Holloway
It wasn't great this year.
Mike Wright
No. The next two running backs off the board in the NFL draft were Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon. The two running backs after them. Camara and Hunt finished 3, 4 in fantasy, but I think Cook and Mixon are the most interesting from a fantasy perspective.
Andy Holloway
You got to be fair for Dalvin Cook because if Dalvin Cook doesn't tear his acl, sure. He's an absolute beast.
Mike Wright
Absolutely. And you have a situation in Minnesota. Jerick McKinnon is a free agent. He wants to be featured. He's not going to be involved if Cook and Murray are back and Cook has that job and he has the skill set to be three downs. So you have the question mark coming off the injury. But it was an earlier injury. It wasn't late in the season.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, it was week four. He's already jogging. I expect Dalvin Cook to be back and coming. What?
Mike Wright
What when you have to make the Decision on Cook. Are you making it as though He's a top 12 guy?
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
A top 12 fantasy running back?
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
And are you picking him over Joe Mixon who should have.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
The backfield locked up in Cincinnati?
Andy Holloway
Yeah, but he still. Joe Mixon still has Marvin Lewis. He still has that offensive line. He still has that offense. I know that the Vikings are losing Pat Schumer. To have lost him, I should say so. There will be change. And who's the quarterback for Minnesota, But I know they.
Mike Wright
Blake Bortles. Oh, wait, sorry.
Andy Holloway
He's playing.
Mike Wright
He's every team.
Andy Holloway
He's a beast.
Mike Wright
He has a monster. But Dalvin Cook, he moonlights for other teams.
Andy Holloway
That would be awesome. It's a quarterback.
Mike Wright
He's co owned. Nobody wants to pay that salary to one.
Andy Holloway
They all split it. And yeah, he's the backup for five teams.
Mike Wright
There you go.
Andy Holloway
So when. Oh, starters down. Can we get Blake this week?
Mike Wright
That's right.
Andy Holloway
No, you got him. Oh, all right. We'll figure it out.
Mike Wright
David, he had to pay for his own surgery. Did you hear that, Portalston?
Andy Holloway
He actually. No, he did it.
Mike Wright
He did it.
Andy Holloway
He did his own. He did his own surgery.
Mike Wright
Yeah. That's amazing.
Andy Holloway
I mean, left handed.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Very, very impressive. Dalvin Cook coming into the year. Dalvin Cook is. I feel conflicted about my played four games last year. Well, I'm talking about my analysis of Dalvin Cook coming into the league because early, early in the off season when you're talking for dynasty and everything, the combine hasn't happened. Draft hasn't happened. Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette were the two most talked about running backs and Dalvin Cook. When I watched everything, Dalvin Cook was by far my favorite running back. I liked him more than Leonard Fournette. Then the combine happened and I let that poison me when Dalvin Cook showed up and just bombed everything. Because I think that I weigh all of that stuff. I don't just weigh watching a guy on tape breaking down. How's. How does he look? How is he a good football player?
Mike Wright
And that's what Cook looked great.
Andy Holloway
Yes, he looked incredible. But then he just stunk so bad at the combine that it poisoned me and Latavius Murray there. But once the Latavius Murray injury was like, he's not going to be ready, then I was. I was fully back on with Dalvin Cook, but not fully the way that I was earlier in the off season. So that, that was. That felt bad. That felt. That hurt my soul. A guy who had. I had as My number one running back, I moved him.
Mike Wright
It's kind of crazy. I mean, you see the impact that the rookie running backs have had in the NFL this year. These top, you know, outside of Cook's injury, I mean you pretty much plug and played these top six guys, all the top six running backs are all going to be what they hoped for the most part.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Mike Wright
And if you're a. If you're looking at free agency this year and you're looking at do I draft a running back or do I go pay for one? I don't. Teams are going to draft running backs that market. Yeah. I mean Joe Mixon there was good and there was bad and there was ugly. He was only 3.5 a carry.
Andy Holloway
That's ugly.
Mike Wright
He was 10.4 after the catch, which was third best in the league. And that's with guys like Chris Thompson, who in your mind, you see Chris Thompson, you think catch the ball. Elite pass catcher Todd Gurley, what he did this year was number two. And then you have Joe Mixon who was actually ahead of Gio Bernard, who was ironically fourth. So they have a guy there.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that's the problem with Joe Mixon.
Mike Wright
But Mixon was good. He was elite out of the backfield.
Andy Holloway
But here's the problem. Gio Bernard and Gio Bernard is very cheap. When you like they could. You're talking about drafting versus paying a running back. They already signed Geo and they have him for the next two years. Roughly over $4 million cap hit per year. That's a guy you're going to keep for how good Geo actually is. So he just. You had inefficiencies running the ball for Joe Mixon. He had 15 carries inside the 10, three touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns on those carries. That's bad. He only had. He had six games of over 15 carries and really only two of those games were, you'd consider a good rushing game against Cleveland.
Mike Wright
Had some injuries at the end of the year.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. But I mean the final game against Baltimore to knock them out of the playoffs, Joe Mixon did show up. So at least you're finishing on somewhat of a strong point. But why I liked Joe Mixon as a dynasty pick was the skill set to be a three down back can be a runner and a pass catcher Jeremy Hill is likely gone. But they're not going to get rid of Gio Bernard. And if Joe Mixon isn't going to get all those targets, I mean 30 receptions for 287 yards, that's fine. If, if he's going to getting 250 plus carries. Do you think he's going to get in that 250 range?
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Mike Wright
I think it'll be right around there. Two hundred and fifty, two hundred and sixty.
Andy Holloway
So then. So then you can have.
Mike Wright
This offense needs to bounce back. I mean, if you're lying in your quarterback play and what we saw last year, I mean, the nice thing is they ended strong, but. And there is something to be said.
Andy Holloway
About, like, sort of the nice thing because then now Marvin Lewis is back. Right.
Mike Wright
I'm. As you say, there is consistency there, but he'll be interesting.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, it's like consistency and like a. Like a sludgy drink.
Mike Wright
I was gonna say. It's like if you go, you're like.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, well, it's consistent. It's consistently gross. Well, I'm gonna keep drinking it.
Mike Wright
Yeah, we're gonna have to keep drinking it as fantasy owners. Kamara, Alan. Kamara. Camara. Camara. I do it all the time now because you got the super camario in my head.
Andy Holloway
Oh, okay.
Mike Wright
I always used to say Camara, but then we threw the super camario out there. I think we need a judge's ruling.
Andy Holloway
Oh, Judge Giamatti. Where do we land?
Mike Wright
What do you want me to say from now on, Judge?
Andy Holloway
They're both fine.
Mike Wright
Dang it.
Andy Holloway
The judge is riding the fence. Yep. Oh. Oh.
Mike Wright
All right. So super Camerio into the year number three. What's there to say about him? What do you want to touch on in this episode?
Andy Holloway
I just want to point out the incredible, incredible efficiency, which is the concern.
Mike Wright
That's the red flag. And it's good and bad, right?
Andy Holloway
Yeah. But you can't take away from what he did.
Mike Wright
It's like Matt Ryan last year.
Andy Holloway
Exactly.
Mike Wright
Or Carson wins this year.
Andy Holloway
You. You have to expect regression because even. Even MVP players can't perform like that every single season. He had eight rushing touchdowns. Eight. Mark Ingram had 12. But for him to have eight rushing touchdowns is a lot. Here's the problem in. Like we said, not really. It's. It's not a problem problem, but it's a concern for a guy who's going to go first round easy.
Mike Wright
The concern. Let's. Let's.
Andy Holloway
Well, I'm going to break down the.
Mike Wright
Okay, go ahead. Go ahead.
Andy Holloway
24Th in running back touches, he was tied with Jerick McKinnon in terms of touching the ball. He had the third most fantasy points and the running back position. Only two running backs in the top 10 of fantasy points weren't in the top 10 of running back touches. Ezekiel Elliott, who was 13th in running back touches. Alvin Camara was 20, 24th. 24th in running back touches. Jordan Howard and Frank Gore were the only, only running backs in the top 10 in terms of touches that did not make it in the top 10 for fantasy points. Can Alvin Camara do it again?
Mike Wright
I feel like you're asking me, is Alvin Camara Jamal Charles?
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Mike Wright
Because Jamal Charles, that's a fair point.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. I'm not, we're not saying it's impossible.
Mike Wright
Right.
Andy Holloway
It's just unlikely.
Mike Wright
And I just wanted to add context there in the sense that you're looking at the situation and you're trying to evaluate cost versus fantasy success. Like, I don't, I don't have any doubt in my mind whatsoever that Alvin Camara is going to be a fantasy monster, assuming he's healthy for years to come. But that efficiency, you know, 24th in touch is number three running back. When you have that big difference, you're going to pay a lot for him because you're going to want the reproduction of that. And what you're going to need is the touches to go up unless you expect them to average like eight and a half per touch. And maybe, I mean, we always said that about Jamal Charles, Right. Like, how can a player average 5 to 6 yards per carry for his entire career? And he just did. And Camara could do that. But there is a bit of a, just a warning light. And what happens is when push comes.
Andy Holloway
It'S a check engine.
Mike Wright
Yeah. When push comes to shove, am I going to draft him over somebody else as the more guaranteed touch? Am I going to take him over Zeke?
Andy Holloway
No, I'm not.
Mike Wright
Someone will.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I know. All right.
Mike Wright
Kareem Hunt, number four this year. We've talked, we go listen to the running back show. We talked in depth about his consistency. We talked in depth about what happened. He was a third round pick.
Andy Holloway
He led the league in rushing.
Mike Wright
Yes. And here we have an established role for Kareem Hunt next year. Now, you did bring up on the running back show, Spencer Ware could return, could have a shared backfield to some extent. But Kareem Hunt, this is his job. You feel confident with him.
Andy Holloway
I do. I do feel very confident with Kareem Hunt. And yes, you're going to get the weeks where the head coach comes out and says, I don't know how he only got five carries, that's going to happen, but he's going to be a running back one. And I think that's like Cream Hunt in my projection he will go after Alvin Camara in drafts which you would.
Mike Wright
Take the better value there.
Andy Holloway
Yes, but I'm just saying it's, it's hard to invest a pick, a higher pick in a guy who got the 24th most touches compared to Kareem Hunt who I know is going to get volume. They you could even, even see his role expand. Yes, Spencer Ware will be back, but we'll see how good Spencer where it can be coming off that injury.
Mike Wright
But if it's Pat Mahomes, how much do they want to put on Mahomes versus the running game?
Andy Holloway
Exactly.
Mike Wright
That type of thing.
Andy Holloway
And I mean Kareem Hunt was pulled for a lot of third downs for Sharkandrick West. Maybe Kareem Hunt gets a little bit more of that third down roll.
Mike Wright
All right, let's talk about the more interesting names at the back of the running back list here. Deonta Foreman. Yes, very interesting because Foreman flashed many times this year. A lot of negative press about Foreman to start the year out of shape was the, you know what we heard the narrative. We heard you had the off field incident. You have Lamar Miller there, you had Alfred Blue there. I want to bring kind of put this in context. Deonta Foreman tore his Achilles at the end of the year, at the end of a great touchdown play. I look at him and I see Jonathan Stewart, okay, but like healthy and like in his prime and a player that can catch the ball, he can make a big play. Alfred Blue is a free agent. He's not coming back. Assuming correct the health of Deontiforman, which right now we're seeing good reports. We're seeing Deontay Foreman in a walking boot. We're seeing Deontay Foreman optimistic about his recovery. And I see next year about a 50, 50 split between foreman and Lamar Miller. What do you see for Deontay Foreman? A player that should be a value in fantasy drafts.
Andy Holloway
I think I agree that he's going to be a value. Lamar Miller, will he be a Houston Texan? Here's the contract situation. He will be 6.75 million against the cap. A 2 million dollar dead cap if they cut him. So you can save port 4.75. Maybe that's a, that's a gray area. Lamar Miller could be back. Here's what's interesting for me, for Deontay Foreman he essentially played nine games because technically it was 10. But he didn't really play against Seattle. I think he had 1% snap, 1% of snapshots. He played roughly.
Mike Wright
I had that many as well.
Andy Holloway
I had less or fewer whatever in nine games. He essentially played around 25% of the snaps in those games per game. But in five of nine of those games he had double digit carries. So when he was on the field, they gave him the ball.
Mike Wright
There was a hot hand element to the way they ran that backfield and.
Andy Holloway
There was a much hotter hand when DeSean Watson was the quarterback. So if, if Foreman can take a bigger slice of that running back pie, I think he's very interesting, then he becomes very interesting. Here's the real red flag. The fumbles. His last year of college, per Pro Football focus, he had seven fumbles and 323 carries. That's bad. That's bad.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Last year he had two fumbles and.
Mike Wright
78 attempts and it got him on the bench.
Andy Holloway
LaMar Miller fumbled one time with 238 carries. Yeah, twice in 78 carries. That's bad. He cannot do that and think that he's going to stay in NFL running back.
Mike Wright
Well, Lamar Miller runs at half speed to keep the ball safe. Another third round pick, James Conner. Is there a world where James Conner has fantasy relevance next year outside of a handcuff?
Andy Holloway
Yeah, certainly.
Mike Wright
But odds of Lev Bell returning are about 95% to me.
Andy Holloway
I would put Lev Bell returning at high 80s. I'm not going in the 90s. But James Conner, if he's the starting running back for Pittsburgh, he becomes very interesting. But other than that, he's just the handcuff.
Mike Wright
A lot of running backs went off the board in the fourth round of last year's NFL draft. Samaj P. Ryan, Tariq Cohen, Joe Williams, oh, Humphrey, Joe Williams, Jamal Williams.
Andy Holloway
The tales I've heard of Joe Williams.
Mike Wright
Wayne Gallman and Marlon Mack all went off the board in the fourth round. Let's hit on your favorites and what you see as the future tree con. We talked about him in the quick question. Samaj P. Ryan had his opportunities last year, never put up what we qualified as a great game in terms of our consistency ranking. So that would be a top five performance. Had 175 carries, had 603 yards and a touchdown, so didn't get into the end zone at times. Certainly looked like a competent NFL quarterback or running back.
Andy Holloway
Sure, if you want to. I want to bring up something kind of gross.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Andy Holloway
Because you said mention the names that are interesting to me and you know, you know my love for Samajp Ryan, who was mostly disappointing. But do remember the Washington offensive line was absolutely decimated. So I'm not giving up on the Washington running back situation, we don't. It might be Rob Kelly, though, so we're not sure what's going on yet. Wayne Gallman. I told you it was going to be gross. I told you it's going to be gross. Pat Schumer's in, right? Final. Final four games for Wayne Gallman. This is what he averaged in the final four games when the season was done. They're saying let's. Let's see what Wayne Goman can do.
Mike Wright
Running back for the New York Giants.
Andy Holloway
Yes. Thank you. 11 carries for 51 yards, five receptions for 31 yards. Now, those aren't incredible numbers, but that's five receptions a game over 80 yards a game. And his new head coach just saw Jerick McKinnon get 51 receptions last year. Wayne Goleman, if he piques your curiosity a little bit, he does. Now, to be fair, Paul Perkins, Smash Jackson piqued my interest a little bit last year coming off of a few good games. But the fact that they use so much Wayne Goleman as a receiver and Shane Vereen, you know, their receiving guy, unrestricted free agent, he's not coming back. In my opinion, if he comes back, this, this Wayne go twinge of hope, it's probably squashed by a giant boot. But just saying, don't go, oh, New York Giant running back. I want nothing to do with this. And meanwhile, I'll scoop them up in the seventh round and just see, see what happens so there.
Mike Wright
I mean, when you look at the landscape for these fourth round guys from last year, P. Ryan Cohen, Joe Williams to Nell Pumphrey, Jamal Williams, Wayne Gallman, Marlon Mack, every single one of them has shared backfield question marks there, right? I mean, Gallman's not going to get he, you know, while Smash Jackson's not the answer.
Andy Holloway
Oh, no. Oh, no, no.
Mike Wright
Paul Perkins, it's not going to be Gallman's entire backfield. Marlon Mack has an opportunity, great opportunity with Gore being a free agent with Josh McDaniels coming in with the times that he flashed last year, but he didn't have ton of work.
Andy Holloway
That's all on Frank Gore. What is your current projection for Green Bay, their backfield? Because you have Jamal Williams, who.
Mike Wright
And you have Aaron Jones and you have Tom Montgomery. That's. That's my projection.
Andy Holloway
Oh, you think their Ross will continue to be a running back?
Mike Wright
I think they'll use him. I think they will.
Andy Holloway
You.
Mike Wright
He. He was good and I think they'll use him in that capacity, but he's not going to carry the load. And there's going to be question marks. I don't know how that really sifts out. I mean, you're going to. Have we talked about it. Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb. Is there a, you know, if Randall Cobb's gone and Tom Montgomery starts playing out of the slot more, maybe something gets clarity. But right now I think it's going to be. I think they're okay sharing the backfield.
Andy Holloway
Because they've said that, but they don't actually do that. When they have a guy, he is the guy. I mean, you had Time Montgomery, who.
Mike Wright
Was set to break, they didn't want Time Montgomery to be that though.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Mike Wright
Jamal Williams was hurt. Aaron Jones was hurt. So when Montgomery got, you know, more work than every other running back in football, that was by necessity.
Andy Holloway
Right. But then Aaron Jones, once, once it went to Aaron Jones, it was all Aaron Jones, who in the. He had the two games where he was over the 80% of snaps, which. 80% of snaps. That's a lot.
Mike Wright
Yep.
Andy Holloway
Even for, even for great, great running backs. That's a lot.
Mike Wright
So how do you. I want to know what you see right now. It's January 30th.
Andy Holloway
I think it's Jamal. I think it's Jamal Williams, who from week nine through 16 averaged, averaged 18 attempts and four targets.
Mike Wright
The interesting thing about Jamal Williams, the only thing I'll bring up about him is that he was elusive, wise.
Andy Holloway
Oh, no.
Mike Wright
Plays of 10 plus yards. He couldn't do it.
Andy Holloway
No.
Mike Wright
And so he does seem like the kind of back that will take. He can take a beating, he can catch the ball. I, you know, if I had to pick one of the three, yeah, I probably take, take the big bodied Williams.
Andy Holloway
That's what I mean right now you got to take one.
Mike Wright
You're gonna give me one more name to think about out of the running backs. Before we talk briefly about quarterbacks here you got Chris Carson, he was a seventh round pick.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. No.
Mike Wright
He may have an opportunity.
Andy Holloway
No, thank you.
Mike Wright
Elijah McGuire, he's got a couple older guys in Powell and Matt Forte. Forte wants to play. Whether people want him to play is another question.
Andy Holloway
I think he, I think he still plays. Forte and Powell are not very expensive in terms of running backs. However, they, you can cut either of them for pretty cheap. Against your cap, Forte would be 1 million and Powell would be only 883,000. So against the cap, if they cut them, I think they both stay on. I just.
Mike Wright
Corey Clement, undrafted free agent. Austin Ekeler, undrafted free agent Ekeler and Burrito.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. I was going to bring up Corey Clement because he played. Played very, very well.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
He earned his way on. He beat out Wendell Smallwood for a role. No, Danelle Pumphrey was hurt.
Mike Wright
Right. I realized that. I was just going to say. And Danelle Pumphrey wasn't involved.
Andy Holloway
Danielle Pumphrey was a fourth round pick. So how do you. Are you projecting anything for Pumphrey, who's very undersized? Pumphrey is a. Darren Sprouls.
Mike Wright
Pumphrey reminds me of running back. Yeah, I was gonna say he's going to be involved in special teams. I think. I think they'll utilize him in that capacity. I think that the way that they run that backfield is it's kind of, you know, pedigree, agnostic. You know, it's just.
Andy Holloway
Well, Garrett Blunt is an unrestricted free agent.
Mike Wright
It's whoever works. And they're willing to share it. I mean, they've done it all year long, so.
Andy Holloway
Doug Peterson. Stop it.
Mike Wright
Well, I mean, it's working.
Andy Holloway
No, I don't care. I don't care if it works. It doesn't work for me.
Mike Wright
Matt Burrito or Joe Williams next year.
Andy Holloway
Burrito.
Mike Wright
Okay. Austin Ekeler worth a draft pick next year? Probably 27 probably. Exceptions, three touchdowns, 47 carries.
Andy Holloway
He's probably worth a late pick. Melvin Gordon tends to get hurt.
Mike Wright
All right, listen, J. Grizz wants to talk about Mitch. Oh, because nobody beats.
Andy Holloway
Nobody beats Mitch.
Mike Wright
Mitchell Trubisky.
Andy Holloway
Is that local?
Mike Wright
Is what local?
Andy Holloway
Nobody beats Mitch. Like, am I. Are we doing a reference that only Arizona understands?
Mike Wright
Yeah, maybe we are.
Andy Holloway
I think he's shut down, too. So if someone beat him.
Mike Wright
That's funny. I thought that that was like a Seinfeld reference because I was thinking.
Andy Holloway
Oh, no, no. That's the. That's one of those terrible local commercial.
Mike Wright
It' furniture commercial. Nobody beats Mitch.
Andy Holloway
But it's the voice that I'm doing. That's spot on.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Do it again.
Andy Holloway
Nobody beats Mitch. Go look it up. It's terrible.
Mike Wright
A lot of people.
Andy Holloway
I kind of sounded like Seinfeld.
Mike Wright
A lot of people beat Mitch.
Andy Holloway
That's the deal with Mitch.
Mike Wright
A lot of people beat Mitch this year.
Andy Holloway
Nobody beats him.
Mike Wright
Matt Nagy, new head coach Mark Helfrich comes in.
Andy Holloway
Isn't a Nagy a bad guy in World of Warcraft?
Mike Wright
Naggy.
Andy Holloway
I'm trying to think. There's the serpent creatures. Serpent.
Mike Wright
Nagas.
Andy Holloway
Nagas. Okay.
Mike Wright
That's a bad reference.
Andy Holloway
That was close.
Mike Wright
That's rough.
Andy Holloway
That was close.
Mike Wright
See Baseball fans will know Nagy's name.
Andy Holloway
Oh, sure.
Mike Wright
And you don't?
Andy Holloway
Nope.
Mike Wright
All right, look, Trubisky, there's going to be a lot of hype. I'm going to tell you right now. Are you going to put on the mufflers? Are you going to put on the headphones? Are you going to block it out? Is there a possibility of a big second year leap for Mitch Trubisky with the offensive minds, you know, coming into Chicago, so you might buy in.
Andy Holloway
I will.
Mike Wright
You're going to hear this the next.
Andy Holloway
The next Jerry Goff. Goff. Oh, yes, you're going to hear that. That's already out there.
Mike Wright
I already like Trubisky enough coming in to think that he's going to be cap, but you have to give him weapons. You lost Meredith last year. You, you know, you struggle to put him in a position where he could do very much. I mean, he had games where he started, what they won a game with eight attempts or eight completions, something like that.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Nine of 12 games he had under 200 passing yards.
Mike Wright
That's what it comes down to.
Andy Holloway
And there was of note, There are only two quarterbacks with a worse touchdown percentage. The Mitch Trubisky, C.J. beathard and Brian Hoyer Bravo teammates. So.
Mike Wright
But that's not really. No, that's indicative of the future of Trubisky.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. John Fox was limiting Mitch Trubisky. How? It's how at some point you're John Fox.
Mike Wright
Please don't tell me that you. That doesn't make me feel good.
Andy Holloway
Look, John Fox, I don't like him as a coach, but to be where he is, I have to imagine that John Fox is a decently smart person.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
You have to know or feel that your job is on the line. Your team traded up for Mitch Trubisky. You could have sat just held your ground at three and hoped that he dropped to you. But they bit, they moved up, they got Trubisky. Your job is on the line. You're out of the playoffs. You have nothing to play for except your job. And seeing what this team can do, how do you not just say, all right, Mitch, the second half of the season is yours because he's old.
Mike Wright
That's how Mitch, Mitch, no, Fox, nobody beats Mitch. But Fox is old. And you just do what you do when you're old.
Andy Holloway
I'm just. Trust me, it's. That's such poor decision making at that point. You got to unleash your, your rookie quarter, your rookie quarterback See what he can do. I coming into the season or coming into the draft, I was not nearly as high on Mitchell Trubisky as he.
Mike Wright
Was the number two pick, number 10 was Pat Mahomes, number 12 with Desean Watson. We saw the magic of Desean Watson this year. Now I'm happy. I believe in Bill O'Brien. I believe in that. His offensive ability as a coach, his ability to bring success to a young quarterback. And I'm happy they locked him up. There had been conflicts between the GM and Bill O'Brien. They kept Bill O'Brien. I love it. I think it means a lot when it comes to projecting fantasy wise what DeSean Watson can do now, what he was doing was incredible.
Andy Holloway
Oh, he was on pace but I.
Mike Wright
Still think he's a top quarterback.
Andy Holloway
Here's, here's the thing for Deshaun Watson. We had a Viking funeral for Jason. He died in the flames of DeSean Watson when he attempted to pump the brakes. Deshaun Watson in those games. So if you remove the first two games where he was bad, all of a sudden he is the best quarterback in the league. He's on Pace for 58 touchdowns, which is a ridiculous number. I know. But here's the problem.
Mike Wright
How many did you just say he.
Andy Holloway
Was on pace for 58 nice passing touchdowns because he had a touchdown rate of 9.3%. That is impossible for a second.
Mike Wright
I heard 9.3 per second. Well, which was close.
Andy Holloway
As long as Will Fuller was healthy. He was.
Mike Wright
No, he's great.
Andy Holloway
But 9.3, that's impossible. Carson Wentz this past year was 7.5. That's also ridiculously high to put you put things in context. Russell Wilson 6.1 touchdown percent, Aaron Rodgers 6.7. Those were the only other two quarterbacks other over 6% for a 6% touchdown rate. Brady 5 and a half. Alex Smith 5.1. Matt Stafford 5.1. 9.3 is impossible. Now can Deshaun Watson be a good fantasy quarterback coming off his ACL tear? I think so.
Mike Wright
Brian at brianf. Hughes on Twitter asked the question, is Deshaun Watson a top five quarterback for next year? That's tough. It's really hard to put him in the top five.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, it's going to be very hard to put him.
Mike Wright
You're not putting Aaron Rodgers.
Andy Holloway
Will he be drafted like a top five quarterback?
Mike Wright
Maybe.
Andy Holloway
I think so.
Mike Wright
So I'm not going to own him.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I probably won't either. But those, it's hard to not, not die in those flames. Well, Jay, I'M about to get cremated in a muscle look.
Mike Wright
You have the best, arguably the best wide receiver in football behind Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. Maybe if you put the. I should have said. I should have said one of the best. Fantasy wise, he was number one.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Desean Watson has an absolute beast in DeAndre Hopkins and got him the ball and put them in a position to, you know, use Will Fuller in the way that they need to use him.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that pick works.
Mike Wright
The potential is there for Deshaun Watson now Pat Mahomes, if he has an opportunity to be the starter next year. What do you see from Pat Mahomes in an Andy Reid offense?
Andy Holloway
You have to be optimistic.
Mike Wright
Top 15, top 20.
Andy Holloway
I'm going to top 15. Top 15 is fine. I don't think he drops out of that gunslinger. Andy Reid does pretty good things.
Mike Wright
Could be prone to the interception. Could be prone to a lot of success with Tyree Kill. I mean, there were games this year where Alex Smith didn't do much more than connect on a couple of deep balls to Tyree Kill and his fantasy day was made. His fantasy day was made. So Deshaun Kaiser was his second round pick.
Andy Holloway
You know, he was thrown to the wolves.
Mike Wright
They added Todd Haley, but you can't see Deshaun Kaiser as a long term starter there whatsoever. They're going to take a quarterback with the 1 or 4 and Kaiser's a career backup.
Andy Holloway
I'm sorry, I'm not going that far. I'm going that Deshaun Kizer, his head coach, did not listen to the advice of his staff who said to Sean, Kaiser is not ready to start. He played him anyways and he played him for a winless team.
Mike Wright
Is anybody really ready to start for Cleveland?
Andy Holloway
That's, that's a fair.
Mike Wright
Don't you go into the huddle saying, I am not ready. I am not ready right now.
Andy Holloway
I like, I liked Kaiser coming out of college and he's.
Mike Wright
Yeah, we didn't agree on that.
Andy Holloway
And to be fair, his head coach from Notre Dame and I can't recall off the top of my head who it was, if it was the OC or the quarterback coach for Cleveland. But someone said, someone had.
Mike Wright
They've all said he's not quite ready.
Andy Holloway
He wasn't ready. He has all the tools.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
And you've, you saw a couple good games.
Mike Wright
You saw a guy that was willing to stretch the field.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
And they have weapons, but I don't think he's going to be the quarterback. That's the, that's the essential truth.
Andy Holloway
Yes, I agree that he is unlikely to be the quarterback. I wouldn't call him a. I wouldn't just stamp the label of you're a career backup. I think if he gets in a good situation, he could succeed. But will he ever even get a chance to be in a good situation? They're going to keep him for cheap, so he's going to be there for the rest of his first contract.
Mike Wright
We will go through the wide receivers and the tight ends in a rookie review show later this week. Do you want to answer some questions, Mike?
Andy Holloway
What?
Mike Wright
You want to do that?
Andy Holloway
What? I. I guess so. Mailbag.
Mike Wright
Mailbag. Now, these are new questions, right, Brooks? Yes, sir. Okay.
Andy Holloway
Brooks is like, all right, this one's from Brooks.
Mike Wright
If you have a question, you can go to the right. This one comes in from. Hey, it's being written right now.
Andy Holloway
Should I trade Jai from my Dynasty team?
Mike Wright
The nothing you do will help your dynasty team. Brooks. The fantasy footballers.com head over there. Click the Submit a question button. You can dial Our Voicemail Hotline 302464, TFFB Mike, here's a question from Manny in San Diego.
Andy Holloway
I'm here.
Mike Wright
Should I trade Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones for the number three overall pick in the rookie draft?
Andy Holloway
Ooh.
Mike Wright
I currently have David Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Wayne Gallman, CJ Prosise, Deonta Foreman, DeAndre Washington, and Danny Woodhead.
Andy Holloway
The answer is I would do that.
Mike Wright
Because of your depth and the amount of players that you have that kind of are in the same tier of a Jamal Williams, Aaron Jones on a Dynasty team, I'd be going for a bigger potential guy.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I agree. I mean, Barkley's locked in at 101, I believe, and something devastating happens. There are a lot of excellent, excellent running backs in this draft who could find themselves in a very great situation. If Tampa, like, let's say Geist, ends up in Tampa Bay, he probably doesn't slip to 103 for you, but there's a chance that he does. There are, there are a few spots, there are a few running back needy teams that I think will fill their need with the draft instead of with free agency. So while I like Aaron, I like Aaron Jones a lot. If, especially if he gets that job, I can't say for sure that he will. So I'm willing to make this trade.
Mike Wright
I would take the 103 Adam in Cincinnati. Do I trade Lev Belloway for Kareem Hunt in the third.
Andy Holloway
Wow.
Mike Wright
The third overall rookie pick.
Andy Holloway
Wow.
Mike Wright
PPR Dynasty league. Oh, came in second last year. So he can't buy this shirt with the code Mike's tears on chopballers.com Mike's tears for 10% off.
Andy Holloway
My tears are only worth 10%.
Mike Wright
That's it. That's it.
Andy Holloway
You're a stingy man. Yeah, man. I'm going to pass this one to you. Would you trade Cream or Lev Bell away for Hunt and the third overall pick?
Mike Wright
No, I would not. You came in second last year. I'm not going to do this trade and get the player I don't think is as valuable. Lev Bell is going to get paid and then he's going to be played a lot.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
And I think I'd rather have him.
Andy Holloway
It's not just Bell though.
Mike Wright
It's that third overall. I know, but I would keep Love Bell.
Andy Holloway
I mean that third overall pick in this year's rookie draft. Edward, that worked out more than likely.
Mike Wright
How many people won championships on the back of Todd Gurley in dynasty leagues?
Andy Holloway
A lot.
Mike Wright
How many would have had the. I mean, you traded Todd Gurley away for Kareem Hunt in the third.
Andy Holloway
Oh, I'm just, just. I'm just.
Mike Wright
I'm asking you that question.
Andy Holloway
Todd Gurley's younger Brooks, what do you.
Mike Wright
Do with this trade?
Andy Holloway
I probably take it. I mean, I lean. I lean to taking it.
Mike Wright
Is it. How much of it is the youth of Cream Hunt versus that third pick?
Andy Holloway
Lev Bell's still pretty young. It's just the fact of you can get an X, an actual starter like plug and play starter. Maybe at 103. No, of course it's a maybe.
Mike Wright
There's a big maybe. Lev Bell is locked and loaded. Top three. Kareem Hunt has done. He has that potential. But we don't know Kareem Hunt. There's two question marks on the hunt.
Andy Holloway
Hunt was the number four running back.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
Le'Veon Bell was no. Le'Veon Belk has the ceiling. We know the ceiling of what he is. But we're just talking this past year he was only 30 points better.
Mike Wright
Sure.
Andy Holloway
Than Kareem Hunt. That difference of 30 points, you're going to smash that with the 103. It's.
Mike Wright
Look at your start. Why would you smash that? That guy might not play for you. And how do you know you make that 30 points up between that and what you have on the second place. A second place team.
Andy Holloway
That's what I'm saying. Look at your starters.
Mike Wright
That's why I keep love.
Andy Holloway
You keep love. Keep.
Mike Wright
I keep loving Love.
Andy Holloway
Keep loving. Love.
Mike Wright
Bell. All right, Mark in New York City.
Andy Holloway
New York City.
Mike Wright
Hopefully that was some perspective for you. I mean, you got different Eileen with.
Andy Holloway
Brooks that I strongly considered making the trade.
Mike Wright
Sure. And again, I have the hashtag foot gland title shirt, so take that for what you will.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, well, you better hope Todd Gurley repeats or you're going to the basement.
Mike Wright
I'm feeling good. Mark in New York City. How do I convince my work league to switch to a half point point per reception league from a standard? And should he.
Andy Holloway
It's tough to convince an entire league to switch scoring formats.
Mike Wright
Just so what would your argument be? Let's say you wanted to suggest that to them.
Andy Holloway
I would say I think it's just.
Mike Wright
Plain more exciting and more fun to have more points scored in that way.
Andy Holloway
It also. It creates more players that give you actual fantasy value where. And look at the running back position we talked about the rise of pass catching running backs doesn't necessarily mean that those guys are getting more carries. And if you are it. It lets them be usable. You can use a third down running back as a flex if there's the half point ppr. If it's just standard, they're not going to give you enough points to really impact your team. So I just. It increases the player pool, makes it more fun. You learn. You're going to learn more about the league because you're going to have to dive deeper of who you can actually use. So that's.
Mike Wright
That would be my argument if.
Andy Holloway
And secondly, if that doesn't work, you just say, you know what? The fantasy footballers recommend that half point is the best scoring format. So.
Mike Wright
Yeah. And then they say, who are the fantasy footballers? And then you say, well, they're the ones that have that. That cardboard bear that hosts. We didn't even.
Andy Holloway
They're the buffoons.
Mike Wright
We didn't even mention the absence of Jason. We.
Andy Holloway
Yes, I did.
Mike Wright
No, we talked about the presence of Jay Grizz, but not the.
Andy Holloway
Oh, I said he was away on vacation.
Mike Wright
Oh, okay. Yeah, he's having a.
Andy Holloway
Nobody cares.
Mike Wright
What are the. We make a lot of bets on this show. Give me the percentage odds that at this exact moment in time.
Andy Holloway
He's eating a churro.
Mike Wright
He's eating a churro.
Andy Holloway
65%.
Mike Wright
All right. For Andy Holloway, myself.
Andy Holloway
Hey, you made it.
Mike Wright
For Mike. I think my voice is almost. It's almost helped it to talk about these rookies.
Andy Holloway
You're welcome.
Mike Wright
For Mike, for Brooks, for myself, for Jay Grizz. Thank you for joining us on another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Make sure you subscribe and listen. We are here all off season long and we'll be back on Thursday with another episode. We'll go over the wide receivers, the latest news, we'll talk tight ends and who knows what else. All I know is that the coupon code Mike's tears will not work on Thursday. So you better grab the tears will.
Andy Holloway
Have all fallen to the ground and the discounts will have dropped.
Mike Wright
I'm sure that there'll be more next year, Mike.
Andy Holloway
Probably.
Mike Wright
Probably.
Andy Holloway
I'm the king of second place.
Mike Wright
Make sure you check out draft.comballers and play some basketball with us. The absolute best place to draft and play basketball leagues.
Andy Holloway
See you Thursday. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.
Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: Fantasy Football 2018 - Rookie Review: 2017 RBs & QBs
Release Date: January 30, 2018
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, where hosts Andy Holloway and Mike Wright dive deep into the performance and future prospects of rookie running backs (RBs) and quarterbacks (QBs) from the 2017 NFL season. This episode serves as a comprehensive review, assessing how these rookies have fared, where projections may have missed the mark, and what fantasy football owners should anticipate for the upcoming season.
Leonard Fournette, drafted fourth overall, showcased his potential but also raised concerns regarding efficiency and injury susceptibility.
Performance Review: Fournette demonstrated strong physical attributes and a high volume of carries. However, his efficiency was questionable, recording just 10+ yards on 18 of 268 carries—a rate comparable to seasoned backs like Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson ("24:04").
Injury Concerns: Fournette battled ankle and foot issues, which limited his performance and raised doubts about his durability moving forward.
Fantasy Projection: Despite inefficiencies, Fournette remains a top RB1 due to his volume. Fantasy players should consider him a high-risk, high-reward option, especially if he can stay healthy and improve his efficiency.
"I'm just saying that a lot of fantasy players out there are going to be scrambling to get Leonard Fournette on their team, and I will take him if he falls to me." – Andy Holloway [26:47]
Christian McCaffrey emerged as a versatile back with significant pass-catching duties, positioning himself as a valuable asset in PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues.
Performance Review: McCaffrey led RBs in targets, averaging 7.1 receptions per game. However, his catch percentage was lower than expected, impacting his overall efficiency.
Fantasy Projection: In full PPR formats, McCaffrey could rival Fournette as a top-tier running back, given his dual-threat capability. His ability to exceed Fournette in half-point and full-point leagues makes him a compelling choice.
"Christian McCaffrey in full PPR, he's going to be closer to Fournette, but he doesn't have the same touchdown upside we saw him." – Andy Holloway [27:51]
Comparing Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon highlights considerations around potential, team dynamics, and injury risks.
Dalvin Cook: Cook faced an ACL injury early in the season but showed promise upon his return. His role in Minnesota's offense suggests he could be a reliable RB1 when healthy.
"Dalvin Cook is coming back and what? He moonlights for other teams." – Andy Holloway [30:07]
Joe Mixon: Mixon's performance fluctuated with inconsistent rushing efficiency and shared backfield responsibilities. While he possesses strong pass-catching skills, his overall impact remains uncertain.
"Joe Mixon was good. He was elite out of the backfield." – Mike Wright [33:16]
Kareem Hunt solidified his role as a lead running back, leading the league in rushing touchdowns and demonstrating reliable volume.
Performance Review: Hunt's consistent production and role as RB1 make him a dependable choice for fantasy teams, though occasional fluctuations in usage may occur.
"Kareem Hunt, this is his job. And I think he's going to be a running back one." – Andy Holloway [40:10]
Deontay Foreman: Foreman showed flashes of potential before an Achilles tear. If healthy, he could be a valuable mid-round pick due to his big-play ability.
James Conner: Projected as a handcuff with potential to emerge as a starter in Pittsburgh, Conner remains a speculative but intriguing option.
"James Conner, if he's the starting running back for Pittsburgh, he becomes very interesting." – Andy Holloway [44:08]
Other Rookies: The episode also touches on players like Samaj P. Ryan, Wayne Gallman, and Austin Ekeler, analyzing their roles and future prospects based on team dynamics and performance.
Trubisky’s rookie season was marred by inconsistent performance, leading to questions about his future role and effectiveness.
Performance Review: Trubisky struggled with efficiency, particularly in touchdowns, ranking poorly compared to established quarterbacks.
"There are only two quarterbacks with a worse touchdown percentage: Mitch Trubisky, C.J. Beathard, and Brian Hoyer." – Andy Holloway [54:16]
Fantasy Projection: With a new offensive coordinator and potential weapons, there is cautious optimism about Trubisky's ability to improve and become a viable fantasy quarterback.
"There's a possibility of a big second-year leap for Mitch Trubisky with the offensive minds coming into Chicago." – Mike Wright [53:43]
Watson's ACL tear raises concerns about his recovery and future performance, though his pre-injury performance indicates high potential.
Performance Review: Before his injury, Watson was on pace for an unprecedented number of touchdowns, but his efficiency metrics remain unrealistic projections.
"Deshaun Watson has got to be going crazy... 9.3% touchdown rate—that is impossible for a second year." – Andy Holloway [57:22]
Fantasy Projection: Watson is expected to return as a strong fantasy option, but the severity of his injury and subsequent recovery will be crucial factors.
"Can Deshaun Watson be a good fantasy quarterback coming off his ACL tear? I think so." – Mike Wright [58:18]
Mahomes, known for his arm talent, is projected to benefit from Andy Reid's offensive system, potentially making him a top fantasy quarterback.
Performance Review: As a rookie, Mahomes showed flashes of brilliance but also had room for improvement in decision-making and reducing interceptions.
Fantasy Projection: Mahomes is viewed as a top 15 QB with the potential to climb higher as he gains experience and fits into Reid's scheme.
"Patrick Mahomes, you have to be optimistic. I’m going to top 15. Top 15 is fine." – Andy Holloway [59:17]
Kizer's limited experience and inconsistent performance leave his future role as a starting quarterback uncertain.
Performance Review: Kizer struggled in his rookie season, reflecting poorly on his touchdown rate and overall effectiveness.
"He was thrown to the wolves... seeing what this team can do, how do you not just say, alright, Mitch, the second half of the season is yours because he's old." – Andy Holloway [55:03]
Fantasy Projection: Kizer is unlikely to be a reliable fantasy option unless significant improvements are made in his performance and team support.
"I think he's unlikely to be the quarterback. I wouldn’t call him a career backup." – Andy Holloway [61:04]
Question 1: Should I trade Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones for the number three overall pick in the rookie draft?
Response: Both hosts agree that trading away Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones for a high draft pick is advisable due to the depth and potential of upcoming rookies.
"The answer is I would do that... If Tampa, let's say Geist, ends up in Tampa Bay, he probably doesn't slip to 103 for you." – Andy Holloway [62:33]
Question 2: How do I convince my work league to switch to a half-point per reception league from standard?
Response: The hosts suggest emphasizing the increased excitement and strategic depth that half-point PPR formats offer, making player value more dynamic and engaging.
"It increases the player pool, makes it more fun. You learn more about the league because you're going to have to dive deeper into who you can actually use." – Andy Holloway [67:09]
RB Depth and Projections: The 2017 rookie RBs present a mix of high-upside players and those with questionable efficiency. Fournette and McCaffrey stand out, while others like Cook and Mixon require careful consideration based on team dynamics and health.
QB Future Looks: While some rookies like Mahomes show promise, others like Trubisky and Kizer face significant challenges. Deshaun Watson’s recovery will be pivotal for his fantasy value.
Strategic Trades: Leveraging depth by trading established RBs for high draft picks can yield long-term benefits, especially in dynasty leagues.
Scoring Formats Matter: Advocating for half-point PPR leagues can enhance the fantasy experience by broadening player value and strategic options.
Andy Holloway and Mike Wright provide insightful analysis into the rookie RBs and QBs from the 2017 NFL season, offering valuable projections and strategic advice for fantasy football enthusiasts. As the 2018 season approaches, their evaluations help owners make informed decisions on draft picks, trades, and team management to secure a competitive edge in their leagues.
Notable Quotes:
"I'm just saying that a lot of fantasy players out there are going to be scrambling to get Leonard Fournette on their team, and I will take him if he falls to me." – Andy Holloway [26:47]
"Christian McCaffrey in full PPR, he's going to be closer to Fournette, but he doesn't have the same touchdown upside we saw him." – Andy Holloway [27:51]
"Patrick Mahomes, you have to be optimistic. I’m going to top 15. Top 15 is fine." – Andy Holloway [59:17]
"It increases the player pool, makes it more fun. You learn more about the league because you're going to have to dive deeper into who you can actually use." – Andy Holloway [67:09]
For more insights and detailed analyses, subscribe to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast and join their community at thefantasyfootballers.com. Follow them on Twitter @theffballers for the latest updates and discussions.