Fantasy Football 2018 - The Overreaction Episode, Blake the Snake Gets Paid

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Fantasy Football 2018 - The Overreaction Episode, Blake the Snake Gets Paid"

Release Date: February 27, 2018

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Introduction to the Overreaction Episode

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright tackle the theme of overreactions in fantasy football. As the NFL offseason heats up with the Combine and free agency approaching, the trio aims to help fantasy managers navigate the noise and make informed decisions without falling prey to inflated or deflated perceptions of player performances.

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Key NFL Dates and Updates

The hosts begin by outlining important NFL dates to keep fantasy managers in the loop:

• NFL Combine: Starts either the day of recording or the following week (clarification needed). It spans from Tuesday through March 5th ([04:43] Mike Wright).

• Free Agency: Opens at 4 PM Eastern on March 14th. This marks the beginning of player signings and team restructuring ([05:03] Jason Moore).

• NFL Draft: Scheduled for April 16th through 18th, where fantasy managers can secure their team rosters for the upcoming season ([05:03] Jason Moore).

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Quick Question: Dropping Kickers and Defenses

A listener named James posed a question on Twitter: "How do you convince a league to drop their kickers in their defense positions?"

Jason Moore responds by suggesting to simply "lay off" and leave them alone ([07:01] Jason Moore). However, Andy Holloway and Mike Wright discuss the unpredictability of kickers, highlighting their inconsistency and the challenges they present in fantasy leagues. They recommend nerfing kickers by adjusting their scoring metrics instead of eliminating them entirely, thereby reducing their impact without removing their strategic value ([08:34] Jason Moore).

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News Highlights

The podcast covers several critical NFL news items that have fantasy implications:

1. Blake Bortles' Starting Role:

   • Jason Moore made a public bet that Blake Bortles would start in Week 1 for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The discussion reveals uncertainties about Bortles' role, especially with the team's recent signing and draft choices ([09:27] Jason Moore).
   • Andy Holloway questions the legitimacy of the bet in light of possible injuries, urging to consider whether Bortles will indeed start without unforeseen setbacks ([10:01] Jason Moore).

2. Rams Acquire Marcus Peters:

   • The Los Angeles Rams traded for Marcus Peters from the Chiefs, exchanging a 2018 fourth-round and a 2019 second-round pick. This move is seen as both teams restructuring and potentially benefiting from the acquisition ([13:07] Jason Moore).

3. Jaguars Release Chris Ivory:

   • The Jacksonville Jaguars released running back Chris Ivory. The focus shifts to other players like TJ Yelden and the legendary kicker Adam Vinatieri, albeit humorously ([13:56] Mike Wright).

4. Dolphins Release Julius Thomas:

   • The Miami Dolphins plan to release Julius Thomas, adding to their roster changes and affecting fantasy managers who may have him on their teams ([14:17] Mike Wright).

5. Cardinals and Kirk Cousins:

   • Mike Jarecki reports that the Arizona Cardinals are not interested in pursuing Kirk Cousins, citing financial limitations and the need to bolster their offensive line instead ([14:49] Jason Moore).

6. Vikings and Case Keenum:

   • The Minnesota Vikings are not expected to franchise tag Case Keenum, keeping their options open unless there's a significant change in strategy ([15:10] Mike Wright).

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Main Segment: Overreactions in Fantasy Football

The heart of the episode revolves around identifying and discussing players who might be subject to overreactions—either being undervalued or overvalued—based on their past performances, injuries, or team dynamics. Each host presents their selections with supporting arguments and statistical insights.

1. Jameis Winston

• Overview:

  • Jason Moore defends Jameis Winston, highlighting his improved completion percentages and reduced interceptions in the latter half of the previous season.

• Notable Quote:

  • “Jameis Winston does not suck as an NFL quarterback, and he does not suck as a fantasy quarterback.” ([20:11] Jason Moore)

• Conclusion:

  • Fantasy managers shouldn't dismiss Winston based on last year's inconsistencies; his potential for high fantasy output remains strong.

2. Carson Wentz

• Overview:

  • Andy Holloway cautions against overdrafting Carson Wentz, despite his impressive season, suggesting that expectations may lead to inflated valuations.

• Notable Quote:

  • “People will be overreacting to how good he was when healthy this year and he will be overdrafted this coming season.” ([23:26] Andy Holloway)

• Conclusion:

  • While Wentz's performance was stellar, managers should assess his sustainability and not let hype drive their draft picks excessively.

3. Drew Brees

• Overview:

  • Mike Wright argues that Drew Brees remains a top-tier fantasy quarterback despite a dip in touchdown numbers, emphasizing his efficiency and high completion rates.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “Drew Brees is going to be a fantasy steal for me in drafts.” ([26:56] Mike Wright)
  • “Don't overreact to the dip in Brees’ touchdown production; his overall efficiency and yardage still make him a valuable asset.” ([31:30] Mike Wright)

• Conclusion:

  • Managers should recognize Brees' consistent performance metrics and avoid dropping him due to isolated setbacks in touchdowns.

4. Ty Hilton

• Overview:

  • Despite a less productive season, Ty Hilton retains elite status due to his leaping ability and high yards per catch, which can still translate into substantial fantasy points.

• Notable Quote:

  • “Don't overreact to the down season... and just move on.” ([31:00] Mike Wright)

• Conclusion:

  • Hilton's underlying talent ensures that his performance won't be permanently sidelined by a single underwhelming year.

5. Amari Cooper

• Overview:

  • Andy Holloway defends Amari Cooper's value, pointing out his consistent performance in the first two years and attributing last season's struggles to factors like injuries.

• Notable Quote:

  • “Don't overreact and leave him for dead the way that a lot of people did with DeAndre Hopkins during his down year.” ([35:26] Andy Holloway)

• Conclusion:

  • Cooper remains a valuable wide receiver, and his down season should be viewed as a temporary setback rather than a red flag.

6. Mike Evans

• Overview:

  • Mike Wright discusses Mike Evans, noting his fluctuating red zone efficiency but emphasizing his consistently high reception and yardage totals.

• Notable Quote:

  • “Don't overreact to Mike Evans on a down touchdown year.” ([38:26] Mike Wright)

• Conclusion:

  • Evans' reliability in receptions and yardage solidifies his status as a top fantasy receiver, despite variations in touchdown production.

7. Kareem Hunt

• Overview:

  • Jason Moore expresses reservations about Kareem Hunt's elite status, citing last season's inconsistent performance and potential changes in the Jaguars' offensive strategy.

• Notable Quote:

  • “Don’t overreact and think he's a guaranteed elite player.” ([45:31] Jason Moore)

• Conclusion:

  • While Hunt demonstrated significant talent, managers should consider the Jaguars' depth chart and possible workload distribution before committing high draft picks.

8. Kirk Cousins and Washington's Running Game

• Overview:

  • Andy Holloway warns against overhyping Kirk Cousins' move to a new team, suggesting that the accompanying running game may not live up to expectations.

• Notable Quote:

  • “People are going to overreact and say, I don’t want Kirk Cousins.” ([46:44] Andy Holloway)

• Conclusion:

  • Managers should critically evaluate Cousins' potential impact within his new team structure rather than succumbing to prevailing narratives.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• “Jameis Winston does not suck as an NFL quarterback, and he does not suck as a fantasy quarterback.” – Jason Moore ([20:11])

• “Don’t overreact and leave him for dead the way that a lot of people did with DeAndre Hopkins during his down year.” – Andy Holloway ([35:26])

• “Drew Brees is going to be a fantasy steal for me in drafts.” – Mike Wright ([26:56])

• “Don't overreact to Mike Evans on a down touchdown year.” – Mike Wright ([38:26])

• “People are going to overreact and say, I don’t want Kirk Cousins.” – Andy Holloway ([46:44])

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Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers Podcast episode serves as a crucial guide for fantasy managers, encouraging them to look beyond the surface and avoid knee-jerk reactions to player performances. By dissecting various players' situations and underlying statistics, the hosts empower listeners to make strategic decisions that can enhance their fantasy teams' competitiveness.

For more insights and strategies, listeners are encouraged to engage with the podcast community and utilize resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit to dominate their 2018 fantasy drafts.

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Note: This summary intentionally omits advertisement segments, intros, and outros to focus solely on the core content and discussions of the episode.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

Hi, this is Eric Dickinson, NFL hall.

[Mike Wright]

Of Famer, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in to the show. Always a pleasure to be here.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm so happy to be here with you two gentlemen.

[Jason Moore]

Everybody's happy and healthy and ready to talk football. I know. I'm excited for the next few months. I'm excited to talk about the rookie class. I'm excited about free agency. I'm excited for the NFL draft. I'm excited for all the dynasty play. It's just going to be outstanding. And I know if you're here listening to the show with us that you are excited as well because it's. It's late February.

[Mike Wright]

One week. One week till the combine. That means what? About two weeks until free agency?

[Jason Moore]

What do you call the combine again?

[Mike Wright]

The underwear Olympics.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. We learned that on the last show. If you didn't hear that, which was.

[Mike Wright]

Shocking news that two people in the fantasy football industry had never heard that because our esteemed colleague Brooks said, oh, yeah, they call it that all the time.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And they do. But the nice thing is when you say something like that, you get an opportunity to pause and reflect on what is really being said. And that's what we chose to do.

[Jason Moore]

It's true. And Mike, you know, you are the most well rounded in terms of just general pop culture and knowledge.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

You're a man of the people.

[Mike Wright]

I am a man of the people. That's right.

[Jason Moore]

Unverified.

[Mike Wright]

Very unverified.

[Jason Moore]

Man of the people, but a man of the people. Look, we have a great show today. This is the overreaction episode. We're going to talk about players that we think maybe you shouldn't overreact to.

[Andy Holloway]

I was thinking about that. Is this really the overreaction show? Because it seems like it's. It's more of the under reaction. Well, we tell you what to not overreact to.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, some.

[Andy Holloway]

The overreaction show is like, hey, guys, this is gonna be nuts. Let's do this low.

[Jason Moore]

Last year I mean, last year Matt Ryan was an example. We had him on this show. Well, we didn't have him on the show, but we had, we asked, we asked. He said, you guys are overreacting to my top season. And we said what? We said, don't overreact to the huge year. So that was a. Don't overreact. But people, the people out there are overreacting. We're overreacting to Matt Ryan. Todd Gurley went from being that number one running back, you know, or a top five guy, I mean, the year before to being a disappointment.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And last year we said.

[Mike Wright]

Or react.

[Jason Moore]

I said don't overreact.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right. That's right.

[Jason Moore]

Deandre Hopkins. We said don't overreact. You know, he had a down year, but things were, things were amiss. Maybe we'll talk about some players that are in that category this year. On today's show. We each chose three different names that we're going to bring up, make our cases, give our rebuttals and I'm excited to see what you guys think. So if you want to participate in the conversation after you listen to the show, go over to Twitter @ the FF Ballers, chat with us, let us know what you think. Let us know if there's somebody that we glaringly left off the list.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Comment on the YouTube comments. Who are you thinking people are going to overreact to that? We don't cover here today.

[Jason Moore]

If you want to win a Todd Gurley or Lev Bell signed jersey, we're giving them [e-mail] youm can go over there, participate. It's free to enter and we're going to give those away by the end of March. A signed Todd Gurley signed Love Bell jersey and the the ultimate draft kit is available for pre sale on the Website Ultimate Draft Kit.com this is the one stop shop to dominate your 2018 fantasy draft. Tons of tools, information, stuff you just can't miss.

[Andy Holloway]

You know you're going to get it so might as well pre order save some of that cache case.

[Jason Moore]

And before we get into the quick question, I want to hop into these NFL dates. Just make you aware of some things. The combine, when is it, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

It's next week. Is that correct? It starts next week. We on. It starts Tuesday. It runs through March 5th.

[Jason Moore]

And then.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, isn't that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I know. It runs through March 5th.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. I'm just. Sorry, wouldn't that be March 5th?

[Brooks]

Next Tuesday, I think it starts today. Fellows, that we're recording.

[Jason Moore]

What? What? Hold on, hold on. We're. The day before.

[Mike Wright]

Am I reading this wrong? Oh, my goodness.

[Brooks]

When you just search for NFL combine, it shows today, the 27th, March 5th.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, well, that means that the real drills don't start on Tuesday, so they'll start later this week. Man, I got all mixed up. All mixed up.

[Jason Moore]

March 6th is the deadline to franchise March 12th through the 14th. Is that legal tampering period where teams can start to wink at each other.

[Mike Wright]

I call it the tickle fight.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, they just start to try to get Kirk Cousins in the door. And then March 14th is when actual signings can take place. Free agencies open at 4pm Eastern on the 14th of March. NFL draft is April 16th through the 18th. And maybe Brooks can get us kind of some more specifics on the combine premier event days, and you can. You can kind of touch base with us later on during the show. Brooks. All right, quick question of the day.

[Brooks]

Actually, can I touch base again right now?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, you can get that base.

[Brooks]

Friday, my March 2nd.

[Jason Moore]

There we go.

[Brooks]

Running backs, offensive line, kickers, and special team. Saturday, March 3rd, quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, Special Teams ST is listed?

[Brooks]

I don't know if that makes sense.

[Mike Wright]

But look, if you make it in the NFL, you're. You're a stud. You are an elite athlete. But if you're going into the combine just to try out. I just want to be special teams. You got to aim higher. Got to aim higher.

[Jason Moore]

Long snappers. Got aim higher. I mean, that has to be the main category there, right? Like, long snappers.

[Mike Wright]

We'll find out.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, thanks, Brooks.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Brooks]

And Sunday and Monday is mostly defensive players, it looks like. So Friday and Saturday, defense.

[Jason Moore]

All right. I don't even know why this is the quick question based on my own answer, but this one comes in from James on Twitter. He says, how do you convince a league to drop their kickers in their defense positions? And my answer to this is, lay off. They're fine.

[Andy Holloway]

I think this quick question comes in.

[Jason Moore]

Why you got to get rid of them?

[Andy Holloway]

Because we. Or, you know, I know I do. And Mike, I think you're pretty much there with me. We disparage kickers a lot of times, not in the NFL, but for fantasy purposes, because they are not as easy to predict. They're not fun to play compared to the other. Just look at the draft season, and you look at all the time spent on researching all these players, and then look at the end of season rankings and realize what a big deal kickers make. And there's kind of. There's something off there. What I would recommend, and I'm speaking only of kickers because I actually love defenses in fantasy football. So long as it's not Dynasty. If you're in a keeper redraft. I love playing the waivers for kickers. I recommend nerfing kickers. Start with nerve if your league. Because I tried to get rid of kickers forever in our league of record and.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, you have.

[Andy Holloway]

Andy stayed true to his quick question answer and said, no, leave him alone.

[Jason Moore]

Then finally I was in favor of nerfing them.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that's what I'm saying. Finally the conversation shifted from get rid of kickers to just nerf them because we had like, kickers that were outscoring the top five tight ends and, you know, make it to where they're not impacting the games.

[Jason Moore]

For example, we had, we had, you know, five 50 yard kicks and above were five points and 40 plus were four. And, and then below that it was three. And then if you miss something within 30 yards, it was minus two. And. And so we just took that and we just said, hey, look, you miss a kick, you get zero. You miss an extra point, you get negative one. You make a kick, you get three.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

And if you're over 50, you get four.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

So we simplified it. It changed the variance because I agree it's obviously a harder to predict position. It's dependent entirely on game flow and field position and some of these things that. But at the same time, you have. You have good kickers and you have bad kickers, of course. Did you have any thoughts there, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

No, I'm completely with Jason on this one.

[Jason Moore]

All right. All right, let's get into the news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

I made a very public bet on Blake Bortles and that was a water bet, right? Yeah. It's not over yet.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait, this.

[Mike Wright]

It's not over yet.

[Jason Moore]

Well, right.

[Andy Holloway]

What was the bet? Tell me.

[Jason Moore]

Start week one. That was the bet.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're going.

[Mike Wright]

We're going to have to check the table.

[Jason Moore]

It was Brooks. You remember this, right?

[Brooks]

In our log, it says, Blake the Snake will be a starter this year.

[Jason Moore]

Right. I'm planning that out until.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're telling me. Hold on.

[Mike Wright]

That is nonsense.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not going to pay it out when there's a chance that an injury nullifies the bet.

[Andy Holloway]

But the injury would not have at all held to the spirit of what you were saying. That's what I was going to bring up. So you're saying that if he's there and he's ready to be their starter and you know, on the drive to week one, if he got injured for the season, you would say. I want to say that.

[Jason Moore]

I would say that I was accurate in my prediction. Well, I'm not inaccurate. Brooks read the bat to me again.

[Brooks]

I think he's got to start a game. That's.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you.

[Brooks]

Blake the snake will be starting.

[Jason Moore]

You're the judge.

[Mike Wright]

You're creating a.

[Andy Holloway]

You're Twitter. All right.

[Mike Wright]

You're greasing that slope on Twitter and YouTube.

[Jason Moore]

No, I'm not.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, you are.

[Brooks]

You have to start a game to be the starter, don't you?

[Jason Moore]

Thank you. No, it's just common sense.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I mean it's.

[Jason Moore]

The bet was we'll start a game.

[Mike Wright]

That was not the bet.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, it was.

[Brooks]

We'll check the tape for the official.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, so how would you pay that bet out? He was the bet. Will he sign a three year, 54 million dollar contract with Jacksonville?

[Andy Holloway]

Jacksonville decide that he is their starting quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

No, it wasn't.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I'm saying the spirit.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

For you maybe. Well, that wasn't for me.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

The Jags have signed Blake Bortles to a three year deal. What was so funny about this back and forth ping pong story? Thing is it was Blake Bortles as a starter. Then a news story broke out this weekend that said they are looking at their options elsewhere. We've heard about Kirk Cousins. In my opinion, if I'm Jacksonville with that defense, I'm probably trying to find a better solution than Blake Bortles because the teams that the reason they were defeated by New England in the playoffs is because once the second half rolled around, Blake Bortles, they made him beat him and he couldn't.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it was play calling. Blake portals played pretty well.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I would agree. I think it was more that they.

[Jason Moore]

But those are chicken or egg. Because if you have a player that you don't believe and can't trust to call plays for because he makes mistakes, you don't call the plays. So it's. If the guy has historically shown you he can't perform, which he has for the most part, that you can't trust and they couldn't do. They couldn't commit a big turnover. I get it. We don't get to see what happens if they make those play calls, but maybe they do. When he throws three picks, maybe they do and he wins the game. Either way, he signed a new three year deal. To me this is Blake Bortles. Look, you're going to sign whatever this offer is.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Because if you aren't back with Jacksonville, there's. There's a chance I was going to be right with that bet. Would you agree with that? If he wasn't with Jacksonville, there's a chance he's not starting next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Certainly a chance. Yes. But he played well enough. I mean in that, in that game against the Patriots, he had a 98.5 passer rating. I mean he played well. And the thing about this contract is it's. It doesn't break the bank. He is actually reasonably cheap. He will be as far as a cap hit this year, the 19th quarterback according to Spotrek and I believe they.

[Jason Moore]

Have a lot of flexibility to get out of this thing in 2019.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. But Blake Bortles got paid some money and I'm going to lose the bet. I'm going to probably lose this bet.

[Mike Wright]

Unless you Tanya Harding this situation.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not willing. Not willing. All right. The Rams have acquired Marcus Peters from the Chiefs in exchange for some draft picks. A 2018 fourth round pick and a 2019 second round pick. I think they sent back a six with Marcus Peters. And look, this is just a trade to. They're reworking this Chiefs offense, defense, they're getting younger, getting cheaper and this is probably good for both teams. I think it's probably good for both.

[Andy Holloway]

On the Rams side, I know that there's some speculation that this could free them up with who they franchise to franchise Sammy Watkins if they're afraid of him departing town.

[Jason Moore]

Departing town as they say. The Jags have released.

[Mike Wright]

I'm about to depart. See.

[Jason Moore]

Depart town.

[Mike Wright]

See.

[Jason Moore]

The Jags have released Chris Ivory.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it makes complete sense.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I think TJ Yelden showed he is a great player for a specific role.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Yelden in the back half of.

[Jason Moore]

As opposed to forced as into that starting role from years before.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

Adam Vinatieri.

[Andy Holloway]

I would. I would pick up Corey Grant if he's available in.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he's a free agent too, isn't he?

[Mike Wright]

He's an un. He is a restricted free agent. We don't know what his.

[Jason Moore]

Jason's outlook will be. Keep your eyes on him. Adam Vinitari, one year deal. He's going to be back. He's going to be back to break the NFL's all time scoring record. He is in his late 70s, is that correct? Early, early.

[Mike Wright]

Early 70s, yes.

[Jason Moore]

The Dolphins plan to release Julius Thomas by the start of the new year. Was he did he ever. Did he.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Did he ever play for them? Did he ever. Whatever your question, Mike Jarecki of the Arizona Sports does not expect the Cardinals to join the bidding war for Kirk Cousins. So we'll see.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the Arizona Cardinals still could surprise and jump in, but they have problems.

[Jason Moore]

On the offensive line.

[Mike Wright]

They certainly do and I want them.

[Jason Moore]

To bring in Andrew Norwell.

[Mike Wright]

There are, there are whispers in the bushes that they will bring in Andrew Norel Norwell offensive guard from the Panthers who graded out, I think he was a top five offensive guard from Pro Football Focus. He's a great player and will get paid a lot of money. You're not going to be able to pay a lot of money for the line and pay Kirk Cousins.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I really want to get into these overreactions before that. Ian Rapaport talking about the fact the Bills are not planning to release Tyrod Taylor at this point and he's also reporting that the.

[Mike Wright]

This is huge.

[Jason Moore]

Vikings. Yeah. That's why I want to end with it. The Vikings are not expected to franchise tag Case Keenum slated to hit free agency barring a change of heart.

[Andy Holloway]

This seems like I want to, I.

[Jason Moore]

Want those news stories. Barring a change in this news. This is the news.

[Andy Holloway]

This seems like they could be trying to make that run at Kirk Cousins and you know, not.

[Jason Moore]

They've got the cap room.

[Andy Holloway]

They do. They certainly do. So it would be a great destination for Kirk Cousins and and it also frees up some of the other teams that you know, that are perfect example Arizona Cardinals saying we're not going to go after Kirk Cousins. We don't have the money. It might be better for the Arizona Cardinals to put that money elsewhere, improve their offensive line and get someone like a Case Keenum than to put it all at the quarterback position when I mean differences in opinion about whether or not Kirk is a true franchise saving quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

I do not believe he is also Jarvis Landry news. I mean he signed the franchise 10 sign. I'm sorry he, he was assigned the franchise tag. They are ambitiously seeking to trade him. That is the most recent report is affirming those their desire to trade, get compensation and send Jarvis Landry elsewhere. So if you're a Devonte Parker owner, if you're a Kenny Stills owner, Jarvis Landry, obviously they're going to be massive fantasy implications in whatever happens in that transaction. So. All right, before we talk overreaction, we do want to thank today's sponsor Pristine auction. Go over to pristineauction.com I'm telling you, you're gonna find a plethora of amazing autographs, signs, sports memorabilia spanning all sports. Obviously, we are a football show, so I'm gonna let you know that they just recently auctioned off an official. Brett Favre Signed Packers 8x10 Photo 68 Bucks Alvin Camara signed custom matte white ice mini helmet, $92.

[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

We got it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we got a Camara jersey. What'd you pay for that from? 75 bucks.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, right around there.

[Jason Moore]

Tyreek Hill signed Jersey, $55. There's hundreds every five. Evan Ingram signed Giants Jersey just went yesterday. $40.54.

[Mike Wright]

That's nonsense.

[Jason Moore]

So that was stolen. I'm going to report that to the authorities. Look, there are hundreds of daily auctions. That's the gist. Hundreds of them. So we read you these literally off of the site yesterday. So hundreds every day. Check them out. Pristineauction.com P R I S T I N E auction.com Attention gamers.

[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

Do what you all think I'm going to do, which is that's in my top five drops. I really like that one. I'm a big fan.

[Andy Holloway]

That might be in my top 10 movies all time.

[Jason Moore]

Jerry Maguire.

[Andy Holloway]

Great movie.

[Jason Moore]

Great movie. All right, let's talk overreactions. Things that we expect to see from fantasy owners league mates. Maybe you're going to see it reflected in draft reporting in terms of fantasy draft reporting and the way that people are talking. And we are here to equip you. We're here to inform you. We're here to get you thinking the right way about fantasy football. And that means taking a second look at some of these overreactions. And I'm going to start this out.

[Andy Holloway]

Because this segment is brought to you by Xanax.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, chill out. Not an official sponsor. But I think the name that I'm going to throw out there first is perfect because we tell you on the show, Mike brings it up all the time. Stay water. Right? Be pliable. This is a player that I didn't have very much confidence in last year at the fantasy quarterback position. And I have to let the stats and the performance on the field dictate the way I feel about him heading into next year. Now, the reality is, if you owned him last year, you didn't end up in a good place as a fantasy owner. But Jameis Winston does not suck, okay? He does not suck as an NFL quarterback, and he does not suck as a fantasy quarterback. Last year, we saw some very interesting statistics out of Jameis Winston. First of all, you had a poorer beginning to the year. It was rough, really bad, tough schedule. We talked about that at the beginning of last year, too. But then you had an injury as well. And so you saw the feeling around Jameis Winston is that been there, done that, as a fantasy owner. Let's. Let's throw our chips somewhere else. Last year, Jameis Winston had a career high completion percentage. And what I thought was really impressive was looking at the splits of Jameis Winston. He went from 61% in the first half of the year to over 66% completion percentage in the second half. That's an incredible completion percentage. That is really, really good. And you saw a career low in interception, something he struggled with immensely in the NFL. And so what you really had from a fantasy perspective was you had a low touchdown total last year. His touchdowns were down. And you had a missing games. And you had Mike Evans not, you know, giving you that Mike Evans type of season. But look at this. And here's my final point here. I just want people to realize what you're looking for at a quarterback, at a value quarterback in the draft is you're looking for a range of possible outcomes, right? There are certain players you draft and they have the potential to finish between five and 15 or between eight and 10. But Jameis Winston, over the last five games of last year, averaged 316 yards a game, which is over a 5,000 yard pace and he was on pace for 29 touchdowns in that time. So his range of possible outcomes is he still has the capability of getting you high profile fantasy numbers. He's going to end up a value. I'm bringing up him up now because one, I think you guys both are on board with this.

[Mike Wright]

Totally.

[Jason Moore]

And two, I think that he's going to end up in our ultimate draft kit as a value or a sleeper pick this year because I think we all like the potential of James Winston.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I don't think the narrative is going to change for him. Right. Like, he had a lot of publicity this last year when they brought in Desean Jackson and they, they draft O.J. howard and you know, expectations and hopes were high. This is why people are overreacting and thinking he sucked so bad this last year. Actually, you know, if you didn't make James Winston one of your guys, I would have made one of mine because this, he's the perfect. Don't overreact from last year. He also dealt with, you know, that injury and then coming back and having kind of a lousy time getting back.

[Mike Wright]

In the connections, the connection with desean Jackson. I mean, just narrowly missing a guy running free for a touchdown by a yard or two in five or six times.

[Jason Moore]

And he'll be back this year. Speaking of DeSean Jackson and the other thing is they stunk, man. They were the second worst team in the nfc.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So when you stink and your team stinks and the perception of you is bad, that's the overreaction we're telling you to avoid. Jameis Winston is actually going to provide fantasy value next year.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let me give you the exact opposite overreaction. Let's talk about not a team that stunk. Let's talk about a team that won the Super Bowl. They are so great. A great defense, a great offense, and it's all led despite the Super Bowl MVP by their franchise quarterback, Carson Wentz. And I could tell you right now, people will be overreacting to how good he was when healthy this year and he will be overdrafted this coming season. There are a slew of reasons for this, but let's just pretend that the injury isn't one of them. Okay. Let's say he's not coming back from a late season injury.

[Jason Moore]

Even with the injury, he was the number four quarterback. Just so you know, I'm making your.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly setting the table. Number four, even though he only played 13 games, he was that good. He was on Pace for 41 touchdowns. And his touchdown percentage, meaning of his attempts when he threw the ball, how many were touchdowns was 7.5. Who is. Guys, who is the best, you know, modern era, the last decade, who's the most efficient touchdown throwing quarterback in the NFL? Hall of Famer.

[Jason Moore]

That's Aaron Rodgers.

[Andy Holloway]

It's Aaron Rodgers. He's clearly the best at just throwing.

[Jason Moore]

Touchdowns because he'll have lower yardage games but always give you high production.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he is, you know, he is the gold standard for touchdown percentage. And over his career since he's been a starter, he's six and a half percent. He's a percent.

[Jason Moore]

Are you telling me Carson Wentz is better than Aaron Rodgers?

[Andy Holloway]

He's 1% better than Aaron Rodgers. A whole percent better. No, I'm saying that it's not sustainable for him to throw those amount of touchdowns. And if you compare it to the yards that he threw, he was on pace for just barely over 4,000 yards. His 16 game pace would have put him about 10th just ahead of Alex Smith as far as yardage thrown. You add in the unfortunate injury that happened very, very late for a rushing quarterback, which hurts some of his rushing numbers. And my point is just this. Because he's so young and was so good, was throwing touchdowns left, right and center and because they won the super bowl and you're going to go into next year with everyone thinking the Eagles are a contender, they're a great team. I want the quarterback of a great team. He'll be drafted in that fourth, fifth round, maybe six. And I'm saying don't do it, don't do it. You're going to be overreacting if you do that.

[Mike Wright]

All right, I'm going to jump in here. I'm staying at the quarterback position. A player who was ranked I think as a fairly as a top five fantasy quarterback coming into the past season because he always finishes there except for last year and that is Drew Brees. Now Jason and I, he's giving me the eyes right now. The. It's giving me the look. Yeah, Jason's not sure. He.

[Andy Holloway]

We said this beforehand when we were in the office. I was like, whoa, really? Because I'm, I am going to be one of those people overreacting based on last year. And he said, well, let's see if I can convince you. So I'm all ears, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

So here's the deal. If you think that Drew Brees washed, you were not watching Drew Brees play quarterback last season. Drew Brees was ninth in attempt, so still top 10 in passing volume, but however, first in completions, first in completion percentage. In fact, he said, of all time. And if you're thinking, well, I don't want to buy into the outlier, well, you know who owns three of the top four most accurate seasons? That's Drew Brees. So that's not a bizarre outlier thing for him. Now here is where I think that some things start getting interesting because it's all about touchdowns for Drew Brees. Yes, the yardage did come down, but the touchdowns is where things got way out of, way out of whack for Drew Brees. For fantasy purposes, here are some, some deep passing numbers of which Drew Brees was, you know, one of the most accurate deep passers. Alex Smith had 33 completions, deep passes, 12 touchdowns. Russell Wilson had 33 completions of deep passes, 12 touchdowns. Matt Stafford had 30 completions, deep pass, 10 touchdowns. Carson Wentz, you just talked about him. 25 deep completions, 10 touchdowns. Drew Brees, 33, five touchdowns. Those numbers just vanished. So of passers, there was five passers that had over 30 deep completions. Three of five had 10 or more touchdowns. The only guys that didn't, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Here's Drew Brees touchdown rates since 2013, 6.0, 5.0, 5.1. Five and a half, 4.3. And here's my final point on here. Here is the passing touchdown to rushing touchdown ratio for the New Orleans Saints over the past five years. So like for in 2013, 3.9. So as in you had 3.9 passing touchdowns for every one rushing touchdown. That's pretty high. However, then you go 2.12, 2.31. There was a full one to one ratio of rushing touchdowns to passing touchdowns. One of those numbers stands out as a complete outlier for a guy who is going to be a first ballot hall of fame. There's nothing in his, in his numbers or his play that says that he is lost anything or is washed at all. So I think that people are going to overreact and drop Drew Brees out of the fantasy, the fantasy light where he still should remain. Which Drew Brees is going to be a fantasy steal for me in drafts.

[Andy Holloway]

My only issue there, the deep passing is really that's, that's quality investigative journalism. Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

Nice pronunciation.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, thank you. That's kind of my role here. The only issue I have is I think a part of why that number happened, speaking in the past to rush ratio is because they weren't always down like they had been you know, the last three or four years their defense got a lot better and he wasn't having to throw the ball as much. Thus the yardage and thus the passing touchdowns going away. That's my worry is that I think the Saints are really good next year and not.

[Jason Moore]

Here's not an ADP question. Who would you rather have question. Mike Breeze or Ryan Breeze? Breeze or Wentz?

[Mike Wright]

Just head to head.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, I think it's Carson Wentz, but I can't honestly give you an answer for that right now.

[Jason Moore]

Andrew Luck.

[Mike Wright]

Breeze. As of right now.

[Jason Moore]

Tom Brady.

[Mike Wright]

Lean. That's lean Brady, but that's really close.

[Jason Moore]

And it's less of a question of would you rather, you know, where. Who'd you rather draft? It's just where do you think they'll finish?

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

So interesting. Yeah. It's so hard not to dismiss, you know, when you have part one, his age getting up there and part two production going down. You know, there is a beginning of the end for everybody. But what you're saying is kind of like no statistical reason for that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm just. We. I've talked about this on a few shows ago about wide receivers and touchdowns and how it's not as sticky as we want it to be. And I think that's just what happened here for Drew Brees is just game situation ended up that they were able to get more rushing touchdowns and I mean you flip five touchdowns back to what they're normally at. It's. The fantasy outlook is completely different for Drew Brees.

[Jason Moore]

All right, looks like we all went with wide receivers for this next one. I went with Ty Hilton and I, I know how frustrating it was to own Ty Hilton, to even glance upon his fantasy stat sheet from week to week. Last year he didn't break a thousand yards.

[Mike Wright]

You vomit.

[Jason Moore]

He only had 57 receptions. But I want people to remember that Ty Hilton is still an elite fantasy wide receiver. That's what I want people to realize. The overreaction is he's going to get tossed down below Brandon Cooks and Adam Thielen and Tyreek Hill. Those are the players that are going to fight him for average draft position. But last year you saw his catch percentage drop from. He's normally been in the 58, 59% for his career. It was 52%. We know why that was. It was quarterback play. Right. Andrew Luck wasn't there. He still had his highest yards per catch since his rookie season, 16.9 yards. He's still a game breaking wide receiver. The opportunities disintegrated without Andrew Luck. Larry Fitzgerald, who's now coming off his third straight 100 plus yard reception. I'm sorry, 100 plus reception season. He had three straight sub 1000 seasons when he didn't have a real quarterback in Arizona and his receptions dropped from 71, 82, 63. That's what you're seeing. Go back two years. Ty Hilton was a 91 reception, league leading 1400 plus yard, six touchdown guy. You're never going to get more than five or six touchdowns, maybe seven touchdowns from Ty Hilton. But you're not going to get 57 for 966 next year with Andrew Lock. You're going to have him, he'll be well over a thousand yards. He'll be well over 80 receptions or in that range. And he always plays 16 games, which is not something that you can count on from fantasy whiteouts. So I'd say don't overreact to the down season. Just kind of throw it away the way you would have done with Larry's years with John Skelton and such and just move on.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's fair. I'm, I'm going to go with a guy that I, you know, I hesitated putting down, but this is, this is kind of the point. Amari Cooper.

[Mike Wright]

What are you doing with Amari Cooper?

[Andy Holloway]

I am not overreacting now. What I am not saying here is that he is going to completely break out and be, you know, a top five wide receiver. What was that?

[Jason Moore]

That was you?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, it sure was.

[Mike Wright]

Inception of Amari Cooper.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I thought I had the, I thought I had the Cooper drop and I found, I found apparently some old, old track of. Jason, just talking about.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so Amari Cooper, sorry, who came into the league in, you know, a great fashion, right. He was the highest drafted wide receiver that year. So this is a guy that, from his college tape. There it is, there we go. Hanging with Mr. Cooper coming out of college, everybody knew this is a really talented wide receiver. He's fast, he runs good routes. All of a sudden he comes out first year, he shows it. He is a great wide receiver. In fact, his first two years combined and a lot of people didn't like his sophomore year. He didn't have enough touchdowns. You know, people were sad on that. His first two seasons as an NFL wide receiver, if you go all the way back to 20, so we're talking the last, you know, 17 years. He's got the 12th best combined first and second years. This is not a bad wide receiver. And he rightfully Gets a lot of grief from this last year.

[Jason Moore]

He gets perfect that you're choosing this.

[Andy Holloway]

Why?

[Jason Moore]

Because you were the, you traded for him at the end of the year. You tried to find the value in him.

[Andy Holloway]

I did because I could, I could trade very well.

[Jason Moore]

You got a soft spot for him.

[Andy Holloway]

I could trade very low on Amari Cooper and I think he's going to be able to put this, this behind him. It's recently come to light, you know, you never know if these things are a little extra fluff or true. But Derek Carr came out and said, look, if you knew what Amari Cooper was dealing with health wise this year, most other players would not have even suited up. And he was out here giving it everything he had.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I believe the quote was he's out there playing on one foot according to Derek Carr.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And so he's, you know, he's, he's out there giving everything he had. He had 10 drops. Everything he got. Everything he got. But he had a very poor season. And I'm just, what I'm saying is don't overreact. It's way too early to know players average draft positions yet because numbers are so easily skewed. But I took a look today at every platform I could as far as where real drafts are happening, you know, drafts, best ball leagues that we're in all the time. Where is he actually going in there the, you know, MFL 10 drafts and just anywhere I could find to see real ADP numbers. And some places Amari Cooper is still getting respect, but I've seen him as low as, you know, being in the 20s, mid-20s as a wide receiver. He is a talented guy who is going to be, I think the clear number one. I expect Crabtree to be back, but the fact that they've talked about cutting him does not instill a lot of hope there. Gruden's coming in, he's going to have to figure out, you know, who are my key pieces to build around and Cooper's going to be one of those guys. So don't overreact and leave him for dead the way that a lot of people did with DeAndre Hopkins during his down year.

[Mike Wright]

All right, I'm going to talk about, it's a little auxiliary piece here for what Andy was talking about and that from Jameis Winston to Mike Evans. We recently released an article talking about our writers put together their way too early top 10. And you can comment on this, Brooks. People are saying, people are saying they don't not, they do not like Mike Evans.

[Brooks]

There were many comments that he should not be in the top 10.

[Mike Wright]

They do not like Mike Evans. And here's, here's my counterpoint to Mike Evans and this is. This entire argument is about the red zone, efficiency in the red zone and touchdowns. I have some very interesting numbers here. In 2014, Mike Evans, rookie sets the world on fire. He gets 13 targets inside the red zone. Those turns that into six touchdowns. Everybody loves Mike Evans. The next year, 14 targets in the red zone, two touchdowns. Everybody hates Mike Evans. 2016, 17 targets, seven touchdowns in the red zone. We, we love Mike Evans again.

[Andy Holloway]

He's great.

[Mike Wright]

And then last year, 18 targets in the red zone and three touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

His career is the like equivalent to Tyree kill week to week.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he's up and down. Here's the thing though. Mike Evans has never had fewer than a thousand receiving yards in a season. And last year there were only. There were three players out of 20 out of 20 qualified players who had 19 or more red zone targets. Only three guys had a catch rate below 40%. Mike Evans is in there. Those are the other two. May shock you, may not, but Adam Thielen and Julio Jones, three guys who had touchdown problems.

[Jason Moore]

It's funny that Julio did because that means they did give him the ball down there. Oh, he had, he didn't come up with.

[Mike Wright]

He had six receptions out of 22 targets in the red zone. And player. Other players on the team were fine. So this wasn't a. I put this up a while on Twitter and for Adam Thieler, people like, oh, Case Keenum, you know, he's in the red zone. Stefan Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, perfectly fine. Mohammed Sanu, Austin hooper, perfectly fine. DeSean Jackson was fine. The other guys from Tampa Bay, their catch percentage wasn't as high. But Mike Evans was by far the.

[Jason Moore]

And obviously your point here is that don't overreact to Mike Evans on a down touchdown year. Can I poke you a little bit? Sure. Last year he had 96 receptions for 1321 yards and 12 touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

You mean two years ago.

[Jason Moore]

Sorry, yes, two years ago. I guess we're now referring to the most recent year. Okay, so two years ago, the big time year, the happy year. If he had had fewer touchdowns that season, you would have still been very happy with it. Yes, because he had the 96 receptions. The other three years in his career, 68 reception, 74, 71. Last year was his lowest yardage year.

[Mike Wright]

Lowest yards per reception went way down for.

[Jason Moore]

They've been down the last couple years. But, But My point is this. Is he the kind of player that you can see belongs in that 70 catch range? Does he need the touchdowns?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he does.

[Jason Moore]

Expecting them to come back?

[Mike Wright]

Well, he does. I'm not fully projecting all the touchdowns that come back. I'm not saying it's double digit touchdowns here for Mike Evans. My point is simply people are going to overreact and say, I don't want Mike Evans on my team.

[Jason Moore]

They spent a lot. He's a bug.

[Mike Wright]

He had, he had, he had five touchdowns last year. He stinks.

[Jason Moore]

There were those that drafted him over, you know what, probably over Beckham in some dynasty leagues last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, possibly. He was.

[Andy Holloway]

He was on that list.

[Mike Wright]

It was like an early second round pick, which to be fair, we did say he's not worth that draft. Capital. But what I'm saying is don't put him on your fantasy. Burns. I will not draft Mike Evans. If you're hanging out in the third round, need a wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely.

[Mike Wright]

Mike Evans.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, you know, I brought up the fact that Amari Cooper, his first two years going all the way back to 2000, is the 12th best in that whole time. Well, the eighth best would be Mike Evans ahead of one spot, ahead of Calvin Johnson. And if you look at the first three years of a wide receiver going back to 2000, he's the third best. The only two guys with better seasons were Odell Beckham Jr. And A.J. green.

[Jason Moore]

All right, this last overreaction candidate, for me, it's a difficult one and I wish I could just hedge. Right. But I. The question that I have, the overreaction I have is, is this, is Kareem Hunt elite and is he worthy of an elite draft pick? And I guess I'm throwing some caution out there because there are three, three to four reasons why I think Kareem Hunt might not be worth what you draft him for in 2018. Reason number one, it already existed last year and we saw what happened. And that's the Andy Reid reason. Tends to forget guys for a little while. Weeks four through 13 for Kareem Hunt were not that great. They were not that he never surpassed 16 fantasy points. He had single digits in that time period. He had these random single digit weeks in terms of carries that Andy Reid provides. So that variable was there last year. Obviously he had a monster month one, right? His month one, he was 8.53 yards per attempt. He went insane. But after month one, 3.6, 3.33 in month three, went back up at the very end of the year. Gave people the hope and I think exactly what they need to draft him very, very high. He. He was 4.97. But I want to remind people about a couple other factors. One, you do have a change at the quarterback position. You have Pat Mahomes taking over for Alex Smith. Right. And two, I last year they lost Spencer Ware and they made do with Kareem Hunt and Shark Hendrick West. I'm not going to be surprised if they put themselves in a position where they don't have to overload Kareem Hunt, especially the way months two and three ended up from a workload perspective. People thought maybe he got tired, whatever that was. So I think depth is going to be something that they add to the running back. They don't take it away. So I don't think opportunities are going to go way up. You got a different quarterback. You got the Andy Reid situation. And I hate to bring him up because it's not fair to just imbue what happened to Jeremy Hill on everybody. But Jeremy Hill's an example of a rookie that set the world on fire. That caught your eye. 5.1 yards per attempt. Well, year two, the world's your oyster. Jeremy Hill and he went out and his 3.6 a carry and you had multiple months in a row with three point. It wasn't just opportunity for Kareem Hunt in those two months. It was two straight months of 3.6, 3.3. So do I think he's a guaranteed elite player? I don't now, you guys, I. You might not fall in the same category.

[Mike Wright]

Well, the only things I wanted to bring up in favor of Kareem Hunt, he did lead the league in rushing this past year despite five other players having more carries than him. He forced more missed tackles than any other running back. By 13 he had. He forced 61 missed tackles. Number two is Melvin Gordon at 48. He's number one in yards after contact. Yeah, the glasses are. That's fine. You can put the glasses down for Melvin Gordon. That's fine. Number one in yards after contact. 839 yards. That's more than Lev Bell. That's more than Todd Gurley. So I think he's a really, really freaking good running back. And that I cannot argue with.

[Jason Moore]

That's fair.

[Mike Wright]

Andy Reid frequently forgets who his best players are. This. This is just. This happens the depth.

[Jason Moore]

He needs a cheat sheet from the.

[Mike Wright]

Ultimate draft kit for depth. I disagree that they will bring anyone into challenge even if they don't.

[Andy Holloway]

Both Spencer Warehouse could be that you know, guy that comes in and just takes a few carries.

[Jason Moore]

I just think it's a decision. That's all I'm saying. Sure. My whole overreaction is I think you actually have to make a decision as an owner like Mike, to say, I think he's really good, he's going to overcome obstacles, or I don't think he's worth the draft value.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

That's it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

He will go.

[Mike Wright]

He will be very drafted, very, very high.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And I do think that his talent will win in the end. I see him as very talented, but there are no doubt issues like Andy Reid opportunities. With my third guy, I tried a couple different approaches and either decided, you know, it wasn't a big enough overreaction or there was not enough data to back it up. Like I was going to say, people are going to overreact on Evan Ingram's rookie year, and as I started, really trying to nail that down. Yeah, maybe.

[Mike Wright]

He's gonna get targets.

[Andy Holloway]

He's gonna. He's gonna get targets. All right, well, next guy. Look, I'll say this. If people overreact and drop Adam Thielen based on how he finished the year, you're a dummy. But I don't think people are going to overreact and drop them. I wish they would, so I could shame you. And then my other one that I failed on was. I was going to say people are gonna overreact on rookie running backs based on this crazy year, but because we haven't even gone through the NFL draft and don't know where these incoming rookies are, that's not time to do it. So I landed with another.

[Jason Moore]

You sound like you're staying water, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

I am staying water, and I believe this one with all my heart. I think people will overreact on Kirk Cousins and his wide receivers wherever he lands.

[Mike Wright]

Sign me up.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

In other words, wherever he goes, you're going to get the hype train on those whiteouts.

[Mike Wright]

You're going to talk about.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. You're going to talk about fire against Thomas, you're going to talk about Demarious Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, or you're going to talk about Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs. But the thing is, is you're going to talk about it a lot. One of the things we had on our Things to Remember episode was don't forget how lousy all the free agents were, the majority of them. Because what happens is when they move, they get news. And no one's getting more news than the biggest quarterback Free agent signing in the last, you know, as long as you can remember, you've got a franchise level.

[Mike Wright]

There was one.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, sure. Are you talking Peyton?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Fair. Okay. He takes cake.

[Jason Moore]

Technically, the Jolly Green Giant was bigger.

[Mike Wright]

He was a free agent.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you're right. No, that was restricted there.

[Mike Wright]

So you can't let the Jolly Green Giant go. You pay him what he wants, what will happen? Green beans. He wants more veggies.

[Andy Holloway]

There will be so much talk surrounding his arrival and what it means that it will. It will lead to an overreaction where the wide receivers are bumped up too high, where he's bumped up too high. And we're going to completely ignore the fact that he's changing teams.

[Jason Moore]

You're talking about the number seven overall.

[Andy Holloway]

Quarterback and the number six quarterback the year before. Those will be the arguments that come out.

[Mike Wright]

Success of the three straight years of 4,000 yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

No, exact.

[Andy Holloway]

You guys are making my point and you don't realize.

[Mike Wright]

More accurate quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

You guys are making my point. My point is all of those are what's going to be said about Kirk Cousins going to this new team. But what I want you to remember is that I want you to hate.

[Jason Moore]

On Demarius Thomas when he lands in Denver.

[Andy Holloway]

He does.

[Jason Moore]

And that's what I want to hear.

[Andy Holloway]

Get one single piece of familiarity, sure of consistency. He doesn't get one. Now, unless Terrell Pryor or someone moves with him.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just going to say it worked out real well for Payton Manning. Manning through almost 4,700 yards, 37 touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

I've learned so much.

[Jason Moore]

I've learned a few things on the show. Mike Evans is better than Calvin Johnson. Carson Wentz is better than Aaron Rodgers. And now Kirk Cousins is better than Peyton Manning.

[Andy Holloway]

Peyton Manning, yes. If Peyton Manning switches teams, he's good. I said earlier, Kirk Cousins is not a franchise saving quarterback. Peyton Manning is a franchise saving quarterback. Clearly. Obviously he's done it for two different franchises. I don't know if you guys realize this, but the great Kirk Cousins. Did you know that Washington, the Washington Redskins.

[Jason Moore]

Please be his name.

[Andy Holloway]

The Washington actually had him the last few years.

[Mike Wright]

They did that.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, why didn't he bring him to a Super Bowl?

[Jason Moore]

He didn't.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

The gray Kirk Cousins.

[Andy Holloway]

The great Kirk Cousins.

[Mike Wright]

You're going with the super bowl argument?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I'm. Playoffs.

[Mike Wright]

He got to the playoffs last year.

[Andy Holloway]

About two years before that it took off.

[Mike Wright]

You're just going to leapfrog the one year they made.

[Jason Moore]

I took all the whiteouts away last year Jordan Reed was hurt.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, we'll see. But people are going to overreact and clearly two people are going to overreact on this.

[Jason Moore]

I think we both like Kirk Cousins.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Good.

[Mike Wright]

Speaking of Washington, this is where the last.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you still got one more.

[Mike Wright]

This is the last overreaction and it's going to pale in comparison because I cannot possibly be as passionate about this as Jason just was.

[Jason Moore]

The great Kirk Cousins.

[Mike Wright]

About the great Kirk Cousins.

[Andy Holloway]

Hashtag sarcasm.

[Mike Wright]

But Kenton, I'm going with italics.

[Andy Holloway]

The great.

[Mike Wright]

Emphasis.

[Jason Moore]

Emphasis.

[Mike Wright]

And this is, this is do not write off the Washington run game.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Because we had a report a few days ago that said that we expect Samaj P. Ryan to be the starter. And now there's another report. They look to upgrade the running back situation, which they might. But my point is simply if Samaj Piran is the starting running back, don't write him off. Because the Washington offensive line, their starters missed a combined 20 games and that doesn't even start to account for all of the backups that got hurt in 2016. According to Football Outsiders, they were the sixth best run blocking offensive line. They were the third best pass blocking offensive line and then had Matt Jones. You guys remember Matt Jones? Do I ran 4.6 yards per carry. Rob Kelly ran for 4.2 in 2016. Last year in 2017, Rob Kelly trudged along for 3.1 and carrying Samajp right at 3.4. So I think this is more a situation of the offensive line was absolutely mangled, destroyed for the most part it's coming back. I'm talking about guys who are under contract. So I don't want people to to write off Samaj P. Ryan who by the way had two back to back monster games and then started showing up in the injury report.

[Jason Moore]

I feel like it's more likely players fantasy owners will write off the Washington run game if P. Ryan is not named the starter. Oh so if it's anybody but P. Ryan, like P. Ryan's young enough to where I think you're going to get that. You're going to get some of the. I think the train going on.

[Mike Wright]

I would say if P. Ryan is not the starter is because they drafted a known name and then the the hype train may start. But I see if, if someone of note if one of these rookies of note does go to Washington, I'll be very excited about it. Even with Alex Smith as the quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Alex Smith was just fine for Kareem Hunt.

[Mike Wright]

He certainly was.

[Jason Moore]

That is it for the overreaction episode. Thanks for tuning in. Check out the Ultimate Draft Kit at ultimate draft kit.com and don't forget to check out draft.com ballers. Play some basketball with us.

[Mike Wright]

Get your best bell on.

[Jason Moore]

Get a sense. Get your best bell on.

[Mike Wright]

That's when you get left bell in all your leaks.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, way to save it.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.