Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2017

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - "Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2017"

Release Date: January 23, 2018

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Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the quarterback (QB) landscape of the 2017 NFL season. Titled "The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2017," the episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the top-performing quarterbacks, their consistency, and projections for the upcoming fantasy football season.

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Top Performers and Consistent Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: The Standout Performer

Russell Wilson emerged as the most prolific fantasy quarterback of the 2017 season, amassing nearly 4,000 passing yards and 34 touchdowns. His dual-threat capability, adding over 500 yards on the ground, significantly boosted his fantasy value.

• Jason Moore (10:46): “Nobody in fantasy football scored more points than Russell Wilson on the season.”

Despite his outstanding performance, Wilson ranked fourth in consistency. This discrepancy was attributed to injuries to key teammates, such as offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, affecting his overall team performance.

• Andy Holloway (10:11): “We didn’t have it [consistency]... Russell Wilson was the most consistent when combining performance with injuries.”

Alex Smith: A Surprising Contender

Alex Smith shined unexpectedly, finishing fourth and fifth in consistency rankings. His ability to throw for over 4,000 yards and achieve 26 touchdowns with only five interceptions made him a valuable asset.

• Jason Moore (28:00): “This was a banner year for Alex Smith. It showed that he could do a little bit more behind center and get the ball downfield.”

Smith’s performance raises questions about his future draft value, especially if he remains with the Kansas City Chiefs or moves to a new team.

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Inconsistent Performers and Busts

Cam Newton: Boom or Bust

Cam Newton displayed a high resurgence, primarily due to his rushing ability, which accounted for 754 yards. However, his inconsistency plagued his fantasy value, with a 44% bust rate.

• Jason Moore (15:56): “Cam Newton… ran it 139 times for 754 yards. That’s the most from the quarterback position since 2014.”

While his touchdown numbers were bolstered by rushing, his air game suffered, leading to a lower consistency rank.

• Andy Holloway (16:28): “Cam Newton will continue running next year based on what we saw this year. My problem… you can’t always guess his bad games.”

Tom Brady: Age and Consistency

Tom Brady maintained solid fantasy performance but showed signs of age impacting his game. Ranking seventh in consistency, Brady had 19% great games but fewer monster performances compared to previous seasons.

• Jason Moore (21:04): “Tom Brady consistency rank of number seven.”

Brady’s future performance is debated, with concerns about his ability to sustain high levels at age 40. However, his leadership and defensive support remain strong points.

• Andy Holloway (21:17): “I believe that Tom Brady will still be good next year.”

Carson Wentz: Potential and Regression Risks

Carson Wentz had a standout year, finishing fifth with 33 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. However, his injury concerns and potential regression make him a risky pick for next season.

• Jason Moore (30:59): “Carson Wentz… he’s probably not going to end up on any of my fantasy teams next year.”

Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers: Middle-of-the-Pack Challenges

Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers both faced inconsistent performances, struggling with turnovers and fluctuating game performances. Cousins ranked sixth but was deemed garbage for fantasy owners due to unpredictability.

• Andy Holloway (35:16): “Kirk Cousins… he was garbage this year for fantasy owners.”

Philip Rivers benefited from strong receiving options but remained susceptible to interceptions and game collapses, affecting his consistency.

• Jason Moore (46:11): “Philip Rivers… he threw 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions.”

Drew Brees: Declining Fantasy Value

Drew Brees experienced a notable drop in fantasy performance, finishing ninth with only 23 touchdowns—the first time since 2007 he fell below the 30-touchdown mark.

• Andy Holloway (48:35): “How he finished as the number nine quarterback. He didn’t help you at all this year.”

Brees's declining performance was linked to a stronger defense and reduced offensive firepower.

• Jason Moore (50:03): “This was the first year better defense. Much better defense.”

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Emerging and Fringe Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Uncertain Future

Dak Prescott ended the season at eleventh, showing potential but plagued by injuries and inconsistency. His future remains uncertain, with substantial dependency on offensive line health and key player availability.

• Andy Holloway (52:27): “50% of his games were not okay. They were bust.”

Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff: Solid but Not Stellar

Matthew Stafford maintained veteran consistency, while Jared Goff proved to be a streaming option with decent performance but lacking breakout potential.

• Jason Moore (55:42): “Jared Goff… he’s a perfect streamer.”

Stafford and Goff are seen as reliable options but without the explosive potential of top-tier QBs.

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Conclusions and Draft Recommendations

The hosts emphasized the importance of quarterback consistency in fantasy football, highlighting that even slight variances in performance can significantly impact weekly scores. They advised fantasy managers to:

• Avoid Overvaluing Inconsistent QBs: Players like Cam Newton and Kirk Cousins, while having high potential, pose risks due to their inconsistency.

• Consider Value and Upside: Alex Smith and Jared Goff are suggested as late-round picks with potential upside, especially if they secure favorable team dynamics.

• Monitor Injuries and Team Changes: Quarterbacks like Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott require close monitoring due to their injury histories and team dynamics.

• Streamer Strategy: For quarterbacks like Jared Goff, managers might consider a streaming approach, selecting QBs based on favorable weekly matchups rather than drafting them as core team members.

• Top Picks Should Be Reliable: Solid performers like Russell Wilson and Tom Brady remain valuable assets, but managers should balance their roster to mitigate potential busts.

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Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore (07:09): “Tom Brady's hand pain can be directly related to his… anticipating his sixth ring.”

• Andy Holloway (10:44): “You have a quarterback where he is definitely hurting you, especially with how much the top quarterbacks put up.”

• Al Robinson (12:19): “Russell Wilson… he threw for 1,303 passing yards in the fourth quarter, which was most in the NFL.”

• Jason Moore (15:56): “Cam Newton… he’s not Cam Newton without running the ball.”

• Andy Holloway (20:18): “He could lead the league with that.”

• Jason Moore (30:59): “Carson Wentz… he’s probably not going to end up on any of my fantasy teams next year.”

• Andy Holloway (43:40): “He could lead the league with that.”

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Final Thoughts

The episode provided an insightful analysis of the 2017 fantasy quarterback performances, offering valuable projections and strategies for the upcoming fantasy football season. The hosts stressed the significance of QB consistency and encouraged managers to make informed decisions based on both performance metrics and potential future developments.

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For more detailed analyses and weekly updates, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast and join their fantasy football community.

Transcript

[Al Robinson]

Hey, this is Al Robinson from the Jacksonville Jaguars and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the Play Draft Studios with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in to another episode of the show. Tuesday, January. Oh, Jaguari 23rd.

[Al Robinson]

Oh, yes, the Jaguars.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that in celebration of the Jaguars victory this last week over Tom Brady missing the game with that hand injury?

[Jason Moore]

Nobody knows.

[Andy Holloway]

Nope.

[Jason Moore]

Because we call him a shot. Are recording this show before the games take place. But in support of Blake Bortles, I. I got a snake, man. I'm gonna say that this show is recorded on Jaguari 23rd.

[Andy Holloway]

Like it?

[Jason Moore]

Okay, we're gonna do a show. You can find us on Twitter @The FF Ballers. Today's the Truth episode for the quarterback position and we are going to jump right in.

[Al Robinson]

Well, just. We are at FSDA right now. That's why we had to record the show.

[Andy Holloway]

Sports Trade Association.

[Al Robinson]

And we don't. We don't let podcasts slip through the cracks. That's not what we're about. We are professionals over here. So we get the content out. We do it early. We work extra hard the week before.

[Jason Moore]

There you have it.

[Andy Holloway]

So sweaty. Working hard.

[Al Robinson]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

This morning we found out we're finalists for the FSWA Podcast of the Year. Yes, we're also finalists at this point in time. We'll find out if we have won several of the nominations that we were grateful to receive from the fsta, including best Video show and the best Social media.

[Andy Holloway]

That's all about you.

[Jason Moore]

So we'll let you know what happens when you get back.

[Al Robinson]

I have. I've. I've hit the ground. I lobbied, I pushed hard for handsomest sports analysts for that category to be involved in fsta, but I was shot down due to. I really appreciate the fear of me just sweeping the awards for years.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. You know, that, that. I thought you were getting my back on that. Do you think I'm just throwing this? Do you think that if that category were to exist, it would just be the three of us battling it out?

[Jason Moore]

I don't know. I'm wearing a John Denver cap right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Not looking too good.

[Al Robinson]

Man of the.

[Jason Moore]

I didn't take a shower today. I'm just here.

[Al Robinson]

It's not a hygiene award.

[Jason Moore]

This is the truth episode.

[Andy Holloway]

Matt Harmon would the handsome.

[Jason Moore]

He's the Dapperist analyst.

[Al Robinson]

Quite possibly.

[Jason Moore]

What? All right, here's a quick question. What player situation are you most interested in monitoring this off season for fantasy football purposes? This Comes in off of Twitter from David Snyder. Who are you most interested in following this offseason when it comes to. It could be whatever free agency, draft.

[Andy Holloway]

So many this is. I will say this based on seeing what is in the show. Duck. This is the year of the quarterback because we've never had the opportunity to watch free agent quarterbacks. They just don't ever matter because they don't exist. And this year it was ironic. I put Kirk Cousins down and then Andy chose Kirk Cousins and now we've seemingly both changed our answer. Even though he's probably going to be that first domino to drop that that biggest name. I am actually more fascinated with the trifecta of three free agent quarterbacks from the Minnesota Vikings. I want to see how that plays out. Who do the Vikings bring back? Who goes elsewhere? Does someone go with Shermer if he gets a head coaching job? I'm fascinated and so I want to see how that plays out and especially with my love for Case Keenum.

[Al Robinson]

Yeah, I hate to spoil it for you, Jason, but Case Keenum will be back.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm sure. He's a Vikings after that skull chant. You kidding me?

[Al Robinson]

It's done.

[Jason Moore]

I want to see what happens with Alex Smith. He can go into another roster and make it both fantasy and NFL relevant immediately. He's a capable quarterback. You talk about if he landed in Cleveland, right?

[Andy Holloway]

That's what I want to see.

[Jason Moore]

You know, Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman and company. Talk of Terrell Pryor going back there, Duke Johnson out of the backfield. All of a sudden all you need is a little bit of reliability at the quarterback position for a team to go from best case in point. And it'll lead into your answer, Mike. Ty Hilton and the pass catching weapons in Indianapolis. Ty Hilton went from consistent fantasy force to inconsistent. Yeah, frequent pooper because of the quarterback position. Alex Smith has the ability to go to another roster. Maybe it's Arizona. Maybe that means Larry Fitzgerald continues his, you know, 100 and 1000 pace that he's been going on it just wherever he lands. I'm curious to see how that impacts the fantasy landscape. And it could be still Kansas City.

[Andy Holloway]

But yeah, that's as you were talking. I was just a lot of talk.

[Jason Moore]

Of their willingness to trade him.

[Andy Holloway]

Just seems like a foregone conclusion. He won't be there, but he could still be the starting quarterback.

[Al Robinson]

It would be the most Alex Smith moment for them to trade Smith to the Browns. I mean what does this guy have to do to get respect on San Francisco? He was leading that team to the super bowl, to the playoffs at least gets knocked out with a concussion. Colin Kaepernick comes in and granted, I didn't hate the choice of from Harbaugh to say, well, we're going to keep going with, with Kaepernick. The guys turned the team around, okay. We trade him away to the Chiefs. Andy Reid brings him right in. He helps turn the Chiefs around from just a dumpster fire of many, many seasons. And now they're like, yeah, we got, we got Pat Mahomes here. We'll just send you to the Browns who didn't win a game last year. This.

[Jason Moore]

Are you, are you pre complaining? I mean, then yes, you do know none of this has happened, Mike, right? You're like. And then they send him to the Browns and oh man, poor guy.

[Al Robinson]

I don't know if you know, nothing's happened yet, but about 80% of our show is projecting and talking about what may happen. So, yes, I am pre complaining. I'm just putting my foot down for Alex Smith. The man deserves better. The player I want to.

[Jason Moore]

It's going to end up in New England.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Hey, great. Because. Oh, because of this weekend's hand thing.

[Al Robinson]

The funniest thing I, I heard last week in Jason or saw on Twitter, people talking about Tom Brady is what a meme said Tom Brady's hand pain can be directly related to his. He put an additional finger on his hand in anticipation of his sixth ring.

[Jason Moore]

Ah, yeah, that's interesting.

[Al Robinson]

Very funny. But it's Andrew Luck and he mentioned it briefly the Colts situation. Ty Hilton goes from we don't care to wide receiver 1 Marlon Mack or Frank Gore. Marlon Mack especially becomes very interesting. If we are confident that Andrew Luck is going to be back to open the season, what are they going to do Chester Rogers? Are they going to bring back Dante Moncrief? It just huge, huge things happen to the Colts offense if Andrew Luck is there as composed compared to Jacoby Brissette who played fine, but he's just not Andrew Luck.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we're going to jump right into the truth about fantasy quarterbacks.

[Al Robinson]

Right in. You want answers? I think I'm entitled.

[Andy Holloway]

You want answers? I want the truth. You can't handle the truth.

[Al Robinson]

To be fair, you didn't qualify. It was a maybe a jump off a steps to or jump from a plane.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Al Robinson]

I mean it's just, it was a little.

[Jason Moore]

Sometimes we want people to sit and think.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Just how often in your life do you get a moment of quiet?

[Andy Holloway]

Slow down out there.

[Al Robinson]

You're welcome.

[Andy Holloway]

World take some time to think. I like that. Andy. Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

It's just Foot Clan.

[Andy Holloway]

Thanks.

[Al Robinson]

What did you think about Jason?

[Jason Moore]

Calm moment.

[Andy Holloway]

I was actually, I did utilize that time I was tweeting out to pro football doc based on your quick question whether or not there's any history of the injury that Andrew Luck had causing a long term, you know, end of career type of thing with a player his age. So yeah, thank you for that time, Andy.

[Jason Moore]

You're welcome guys. I do what I can. We're going to talk quarterbacks. If you've listened to the last week and a half of episodes, we've talked consistency. We've broken down the truth about the players that finished in the top 10, top 20 at the wide receiver and quarterback or I'm sorry, wide receiver and running back position. Today we're talking quarterbacks. And the way we look at consistency is we break these games down into three categories. So we look at their game log and we say how many great games have they had? That's a game where at the quarterback position they scored more than 25 points. That is a top three finish on average. How many good games did they have where they score more than 17 points? That's a top 12, a QB1 type of week. And then how many bus games below 15 points outside of that? Top 16 quarterbacks. That's a pretty high threshold for bus there. I didn't realize where we had it.

[Al Robinson]

No, it's good because you can have a quarterback where they feel disappointing. But the point difference between a guy at 12 oh I the number 12 guy, the point difference between that and the the QB 16 is so marginal that it's not, in my opinion, is not actually a bust.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and what's really interesting when you look at the data and you've got it all laid out, even though the points are close, there's really a threshold break where when you look at those tiers of points, it really is like, okay, these players who were under 15 points, they're almost always outside of that. You know, there are 17 and lower on the rank that week. And if that's where you've got your quarterback playing, he is. He's definitely hurting you with especially with how much the top quarterbacks put up.

[Jason Moore]

All right, number one is Russell Wilson.

[Al Robinson]

Russell Wilson.

[Jason Moore]

Nobody in fantasy football scored more points than Russell Wilson on the season. The number one quarterback with just under 4,000 yards, 34 touchdowns. And then look, he runs the ball 500 plus yards on the ground. Consistency, rank of number four now, about that consistency rank.

[Andy Holloway]

Just to interject real quick, we've said this before on the shows, if you haven't listened to the running backs, the wide receivers go back, listen. They're valuable shows, but these are kind of injury agnostic. They just take into account the games played. If you look at the top three, you know, you say Russell Wilson's number four consistency rating, the top three were desean Watson number one, Carson Wentz number two, and Aaron Rodgers number three.

[Jason Moore]

So the key to consistency is to be hurt is what you're telling me?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, exactly. Be hot fire for a few games. Go down, go down. Because then everyone will go. What could have been. Extrapolate.

[Jason Moore]

Why is Sam Bradford not number one?

[Al Robinson]

You know, because he played that second game. Yeah, he came in against, I think it was the Bears with the, with the bum knee and he was awful.

[Jason Moore]

So when he played. So Russell Wilson, for all, if you combine injury or lack of injury with his performances, he was the most consistent. When you combine those factors. We joked often about how he owned the fourth quarter, and in fact he owned. He threw for 1,303 passing yards in the fourth quarter, which was most in the NFL.

[Al Robinson]

That is just such a ridiculous number.

[Jason Moore]

And this was. He's an interesting case because it seemed like it finally happened for him from a fantasy perspective. But the team was so up and down. And now you have Darrell Bevel fired, you have a new offensive coordinator and Brian Schottenheimer coming in who led. I mean, if you remember Brian Schottenheimer, he was key to those monster years from Mark Sanchez. And look, there's not a lot of enthusiasm on the offensive line situation. The weaponry that Wilson has, the running game or lack thereof. But having to carry the load, as you know, I can relate to that.

[Al Robinson]

Oh, on the show, you know, having.

[Jason Moore]

To kind of make up for deficiencies in my. In close proximity to me.

[Al Robinson]

And so he's talking to you.

[Andy Holloway]

How do you feel, Brooks?

[Jason Moore]

I'm the Andy Holloway. No, Russell Wilson had a great year. What do you think this means for the future? Because I don't think any of us are drafting him as the number one quarterback next year.

[Andy Holloway]

No, certainly not. Russell Wilson has, you know, he benefited as we just shared some of those names that got injured. Could have finished ahead of him on the season had they played 16. You know, this is reminiscent to me of last year's tight end going in my head too. Travis Kelsey was the number one tight end, but, you know, you lost Jordan Reed, you lost Gronk those seasons and so, yeah, I still like Russell Wilson. I thought he was a valuable quarterback to draft. He was one of my favorite guys this preseason to draft for where he was going. But definitely should not be the first quarterback off the board.

[Al Robinson]

He could do the exact same thing next year. None of his numbers were outliers except the weird, you know, 33% of his passing yards in the fourth quarter. That's strange. But he didn't have the touchdowns. He's had a year of 34 passing touchdowns before the touchdown percentage. Nothing was crazy.

[Jason Moore]

No. But this exact season could end up number five at the quarterback position.

[Al Robinson]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

But that's kind of what I think Jason was saying.

[Al Robinson]

Yeah. And I agree.

[Andy Holloway]

But.

[Al Robinson]

But the nice thing, what I mean was he can do this again next year, is once again be the fifth drafted quarterback because everyone's going to go crazy for Rogers, Brady, Watson, Watson, Wentz and Cam Newton. I mean, so Wilson's going to be in the mix of those guys. What's that?

[Jason Moore]

What's it going to.

[Andy Holloway]

You think people go crazy for Cam.

[Al Robinson]

The number two quarterback on the year? Yeah, I certainly do think that people. The rubber band will happen, I guess.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel Cam's consistency rating, which we'll talk about, that's perfectly fine.

[Al Robinson]

But when the general public, when they look at fantasy finish, they go, oh, well, Cam Newton should be a top five quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

That's very true, Mike.

[Al Robinson]

To be fair, Cam Newton has been a top five quarterback for the majority of his fantasy career.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Including a dominating number one performance two years ago.

[Al Robinson]

So just saying that Wilson once again, could be. If you're a player who likes to take your quarterback and feel more secure about them earlier, maybe you can get Wilson in like the sixth round or something.

[Jason Moore]

So let's talk about Cam Jelena. Cam Newton.

[Al Robinson]

Cam Jelena Jolie.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I don't know where I'm going.

[Al Robinson]

That's a weird thing.

[Jason Moore]

I'm on some. Some relaxing. Yeah, yeah. So Cam Newton consistency, rank of number 10 despite the number two finish. Look, before the season. I'll toot, toot right here. I told you the dude's gonna run the ball.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, you did. You did.

[Jason Moore]

And he had made the funny comment about, look, do you tell a lion not to roar? Look, Cam Newton. He's not Cam Newton without running the ball. He ran it 139 times for 754 yards. That's the most from the quarterback position since 2014, when Russell Wilson ran for a whole bucket load. 859.

[Al Robinson]

But a bucket. That's a bucket. Is Generally small.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Al Robinson]

I mean, that's a.

[Jason Moore]

Thanks, Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a boatload.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Al Robinson]

Got an upgrade.

[Jason Moore]

Anything else?

[Al Robinson]

I like boats.

[Jason Moore]

All right. He busted 44% of the time. He was good 50% of the time. We didn't give you those numbers on Russell Wilson. He was 69% of the time was good, 25% bust, 31% great games. Cam Newton had 25% great games.

[Andy Holloway]

And those numbers for Russell Wilson, they are the only quarterback that was. They are the only quarterback. They comprise the only quarterback that was above like significantly above average on all three of those metrics. Whereas Cam Newton was above average on his big blow up games. He was a monster in some weeks, but he is far below average of the top 12 when it comes to those bust weeks. A 44% bust rate is terrible. Yes. You know, there's, there's a couple of these top 12 finishing quarterbacks that you need to be careful of. That's why coming into the season, you know, I usually view Cam Newton as a streamer. You can't draft him like a streamer. But you have to play matchups and try to get it right because he does do the disappearing act.

[Jason Moore]

Cam Newton didn't perform for you if he didn't run this year. That's what it comes down to. No quarterback had fewer touchdowns than Cam Newton through the air until you get down to number 11 with Dak Prescott. So it wasn't the passing touchdowns that got it done. It was the fact he would run the ball and raise that baseline. He scored six times on the ground. He still threw 16 interceptions. He looked lost at times. He lost Kelvin Benjamin for part of the year. He was learning to throw to McCaffrey and other weapons that he had. He didn't have Greg Olson for a big part of the year as well. One of his best pass catching weapons. And I think that Cam is probably unlocked for top five range next year. So it's value. It's Doherty. What do you pay in the draft? I think I split the difference on what you two were kind of talking about earlier. You talked about the players that were going to get hype at the wide quarterback position. Mike, you said desean Watson. People saw what he did. They'll project that. Forward Russell Wilson, Tom Brady.

[Al Robinson]

Rogers. Rogers, Lucky Wentz.

[Jason Moore]

Wentz.

[Andy Holloway]

Brees will always go too high at this point.

[Jason Moore]

Who will?

[Andy Holloway]

Drew Brees. Because of the name?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think he's going in above any of the names. Mike just said so.

[Al Robinson]

People Got the burns.

[Jason Moore]

I think there's a chance Newton and Breeze end up very similarly adp, similar ADP and could be a value. I still think there's a chance there's a value there for Cam Newton because the consistency rank. If you didn't play him in the right weeks, he, he did burn you. He didn't get the fanfare of his number one year a couple years ago. It'll be interesting to see you guys have any thoughts on Cam. Do you think he continues? I know that the off season narrative is going to be running related oh how long can you run and no quarterbacks run past this age and blah blah blah. And I still think he's a different animal.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he will continue running next year based on what we saw this year. My problem, the whole issue, the truth of the quarterbacks is that I think Cam Newton next year finishes as a top five quarterback and is not a quarterback I want on my team. Because you can't always guess his bad games. A lot of times the outlook might have been good. It wasn't like he was had crazy home road splits or against top, you know, defenses, bottom defenses, they weren't enough to be able to predict which games he ends up with rushing touchdowns or he doesn't. And so he's one of those guys kind of like Amari Cooper two years ago where it was great, had a great finish at the end of the year. But did he help you win games consistently through the year to get in the playoffs? It just depends on if you started him in the right weeks.

[Al Robinson]

14 of his 22 passing touchdowns, 14 came in four games.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. He's really boom or bust. That's why even though he's number two, he's number 10 on consistency he went.

[Jason Moore]

He basically took that 2015 year. If you throw that out this year looked a lot like all those other years. 21, 19, 24, 18, 19, 22 touchdowns on the season and he missed Ted Ginn. That's my opinion. He missed the speed guy down there. If you look at his completions, he completed 21 more passes than the year before Greg Olson, but He threw for 200 less yards and that comes down to Ted Gint.

[Andy Holloway]

It will be interesting another year with, you know, practice of throwing to the running back, which wasn't his forte with McCaffrey. If he gets Greg Olson back, they get him another weapon in the draft.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think most rushing yards of.

[Andy Holloway]

His career he certainly will finish well next year. It's just can he be a little bit more consistent Tom Brady. Like Tom Brady.

[Jason Moore]

Tom Brady comes in number three.

[Andy Holloway]

Before we talk about Tom Brady, we'll wait because he's. Look, Tom Brady's getting up there in age, getting that 40, you know. What Tom Brady needs is Control GX from Just for Men.

[Al Robinson]

Are you putting Brady on blast?

[Andy Holloway]

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[Al Robinson]

I can do that.

[Andy Holloway]

I already do that. Just use this shampoo and it helps men look their best so they could celebrate who they are, what they achieve and how they feel. You know, just use it as you would your regular shampoo until you see what you like. Most guys get the results they want in about two weeks. You know, look forward to a smart look. And look, they are relentlessly innovative over at Just for Men. And you can get 25% off control GX using the code footballers at Ctrl GX. That's code footballers to get 25% off of control [e-mail] and we know Tom.

[Jason Moore]

Brady gets his rest. And he probably does it. He certainly does on a Casper mattress. Let's talk about my mattress.

[Al Robinson]

He sleeps 15 hours a day.

[Jason Moore]

Wow, that's impressive. You need that when you're aged. Look, I have a Casper mattress. My wife and I got one a few years ago. They are a sleep brand that continues to revolutionize its line of products to create an exceptionally comfortable sleep experience one night at a time. There's no reason to go out and spend a billion dollars for all the bells and whistles. When you get the absolutely best engineered mattress from Casper. And look, I've got mine. My wife and I, we've loved it. You get a 100 night risk free sleep on it trial. So they make sure that you like it as well. And they have three models. The original Casper the Wave. The essential. Casper mattresses are perfectly designed. They have a breathable design and it's delivered right to your door. How simple is that? Very, very simple. You just order, that's it comes to your door. Try it out. Look, you spend a third of your life sleeping, some of you a little bit more.

[Al Robinson]

Tom Brady spends half.

[Jason Moore]

So start sleeping ahead of the curve with Casper. Get $50 towards select mattresses by visiting Casper.comfootballers and using the code Footballers at checkout. That's Casper.com Footballers offer code Footballers for 50 bucks. Off your mattress purchase terms and conditions apply.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Can we finally talk about Tom Brady?

[Al Robinson]

I think we, I think we already did.

[Jason Moore]

I was listening to some, some radio and they were talking about Tom Brady maybe having.

[Al Robinson]

Were you by the fire?

[Jason Moore]

They were talking and I was driving. Mike is relentless.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not letting anything.

[Jason Moore]

He's not, he's not letting us do a show. Tom Brady consistency rank of number seven. That the people were talking about Tom Brady having the most to prove this week, which what the objection is there, right? Like 12 appearances in the title, AFC title game and five Super Bowls and all these MVPs. But the, you know, we keep raising the bar for Tom Brady. Now it's can you win at 40? Can you win as you age? Can you win in light of the Jimmy Garoppolo situation where you let him go and are you really going to be the same Tom Brady? Where does Brady go in the draft next year? He's the consistency rank 7. 50% of his games were good. He busted a quarter of the time and he still had 19% great games. But you didn't have as many of those monster games that you had in years past. So where do you sit with Tom Brady moving forward in light of the.

[Andy Holloway]

Truth moving forward, I believe that Tom Brady will still be good next year. We just talked about some of the weapons that Cam Newton lost and Tom Brady for, you know, everything that he did this year, only busting 25% of the time, which is a very good rate for a quarterback, especially if you're going to invest in a high quarterback. That's one of those. Whenever you do that, which we don't recommend here in fantasy football, but if you do, it's really important. You're going to plug and play those guys. So the bust number is almost the more important one to look at because you don't want to lose weeks because of your high spent draft capital. That wouldn't make sense. Well, Tom Brady did that, but he did that after losing Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell and a large chunk of the season losing Chris Hogan. So if you know you're always going to have injury, but that seems like a lot to his main receiving options. Thankfully, he didn't lose Gronk this year. I'm going to believe he can continue to play at a high level next year and I can't. I. I think this is all you could have asked for or hoped for this season in Tom Brady. You know, I guess hopes you hope he has more of the monster games and is you know, 35 again, but that's not happening. I just don't see the next year. I'm, I'm focused on how consistent he can be versus just his big monster blow up games. Yeah.

[Al Robinson]

And you can see his production where things fell, kind of fell apart for him, at least for fantasy purposes. I mean specifically speaking to the fantasy playoffs where you weren't getting what you needed from, from Tom Brady or what you had hoped for. It kind of coincided with the Achilles injury. That was, it wasn't really talked about very much. But you saw him throw an interception in five straight games. That's. Tom Brady doesn't do that. So you have to, you have to hope that that is what happened towards the end of the year and he can still perform. I think he will still be overdrafted though.

[Andy Holloway]

Didn't, didn't Brady only throw like two interceptions last year? Something I can, I'm looking. Yes, that is correct. Two interceptions last year.

[Al Robinson]

I mean two is, two is an.

[Andy Holloway]

Outlier, but yes, seven the year before. I mean it's always extremely low.

[Jason Moore]

He also wasn't affected by top defenses. Cam Newton, Russell Wilson both performed -4.8 fantasy points.

[Al Robinson]

Russell Wilson. Wilson was a lot better against bottom defenses.

[Jason Moore]

Right, right. And Brady was actually better against the better defenses. Alex Smith was the fourth ranked quarterback in the fifth ranked in terms of consistency at the quarterback position. Over 4,000 yards this year for Alex Smith. 26 touchdowns, just five interceptions and he ran the ball a little bit. 60 carries for 355. Kind of what you were getting from Alex Smith in years past. Busted only 27% of the time. Good 53% of the time. And look, this was a banner year for Alex Smith. It showed that he could do a little bit more behind center and get the ball downfield. 540 more passing yards than his previous season high.

[Al Robinson]

Yeah, he's never been over 4,000 yards.

[Jason Moore]

So other than talking about him leaving, what if he comes back? Is he still. Is Alex Smith the vanilla name a great value in drafts next year? If he comes back with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey with Cream Hunt.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think he will be a good value. I don't think Alex Smith will as soon as draft season rolls around. Okay. The narrative will not be great for Alex Smith because like Andy said, he's a vanilla name. He's never been a fantasy superstar and everyone in the draft, they want to grab the next best thing. And I don't think people are going to project that forward for Alex Smith. But if he's in the same system. And specifically with guys like Tyrique the Freak Hill who can take a screen pass and all of a sudden it's an 80 yard touchdown bomb from Alex Smith. I think that Alex Smith would have value next year. I worry if he changes teams because, you know, Andy points this out a lot over the years. You kind of. You don't like when a player is kind of having that career year, career highs and all these different categories, usually that means they're going to regress. Now Alex Smith will. Right? I mean, you just said it. 540 more passing yards in his previous career high. So you should expect a little bit of regression.

[Jason Moore]

Who would you draft next year if Alex Smith stayed in Kansas City? Would you take him or would you take Matthew Stafford?

[Andy Holloway]

So that's a great example. I would probably end up. This is all draft cost. I will take whoever is cheaper later in the draft, which would probably, I still think, be Alex Smith.

[Jason Moore]

Who. Who do you think goes higher next year?

[Al Robinson]

I think, I disagree with Jason. I think Alex Smith will go higher in the draft.

[Jason Moore]

All right, more question marks, but I'm.

[Andy Holloway]

With you that you got to be.

[Al Robinson]

Careful of the regression for Alex Smith. I think he's a good quarterback, but is Tyreek Hill really the one piece that can put Alex Smith into that range? Where you go, oh, well, I have a QB one.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think so.

[Al Robinson]

You think so?

[Andy Holloway]

Combined with the rushing. The rushing is what scares me because two years ago, Alex Smith stopped running the ball. Last year he's like, oh, I can do this. Do that.

[Jason Moore]

Alex Carson Wentz at number five. So despite the injury, still finished the year as the fifth best fantasy quarterback and the second most consistent. Look, you watched the evolution of Carson Wentz. You watched him grow up into a. An incredible quarterback this year. He, his pocket presence, his ability to extend the play. You saw from him, what you saw from Russell Wilson, which was the ability to extend the play. Find Nelson Aguilar down the field, find the broken play down the field. And his efficiency in the red zone was unparalleled this past year. And so now you, you know, 33 touchdowns, 3,200 yards, only seven interceptions right there. That 33 to 7 is something that you got to keep your eye on going. Okay. Is he really at the Brady level.

[Al Robinson]

That in the seven and a half percent touchdown rate?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And so that's super high. If he hadn't been hurt, I think we'd still all be here saying we love Carson Wentz, but regression seems like it's coming for sure. And then you trade in, you know, draft cost. And look, I like the fact they locked up Alshon Jeffrey. You give him a weapon consistently for the next four years, but you do have the injury he's coming back from now could limit some of that ability to escape the pocket, at least early in the year. So the truth about Carson Wentz, he had a great year, but he's probably not going to end up on any of my fantasy teams next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the truth about his current year is unbelievable if you don't realize how good he was. His big blow up monster games, they came at a clip that just flat out won you weeks. And he. And he barely busted at the same time you have. He had eight starts as a top five quarterback, which is the most this year despite playing only 13 games. It's as many as Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Jared Goff combined. And he only played 13 games. But everything Andy said about regression, to me, look, if I'm in Dynasty, I love him. Right. He's a young superstar and will be. But a lot of what kept his drives alive, what made him special, was his ability to scramble, to run and, you know, extend the drives by picking up, you know, a 15 yard third.

[Al Robinson]

Down and dousing himself in oil.

[Andy Holloway]

That play where he basically got sacked then squirted out of the pocket was amazing. But coming off of a late season.

[Jason Moore]

Knee injury, I think the thing people need to understand is we are not talking negatively about Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz can come out next year and lead the Eagles to a Super bowl and still underperform on the expectations he set in fantasy football simply on the basis that his touchdown percentage was so high, they may run the ball in on those, in those drives, 10%, 20% more often because the block goes the right direction. Maybe they're protecting Wentz a little bit more. Who knows? He could be a great NFL quarterback and still not live up to your expectations if you're drafting him to be this guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Right, exactly. Even if he. If his touchdown percentage drops down to six.

[Al Robinson]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Which would be a. But. Which would be.

[Al Robinson]

It'd be fine.

[Andy Holloway]

He could lead the league with that.

[Al Robinson]

He won't lead the league, but he. Yes, it would be a very good percentage.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, at that point, you're still losing a lot of touchdowns off your number. So just. He'll disappoint next.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, just be careful with that situation. And look, I'm in. I'm in a couple of keeper dynasty leagues where I have to make the decision. Do I hang on to him versus somebody else. Do I bank on him next year in my dynasty league or do I have to go find another quarterback to compliment? These are tough decisions and we're obviously we have the off season to follow injury reports and figure out where he's. He's at. He obviously has the structure around him to succeed. Good offensive line, good running backs, good coach stability there and great defense and yeah, and Zachary helps a lot too. You notice having that tight end that go to tight end as a stabilizing force for these quarterbacks. At the top, look, Alex Smith, right, has Travis Kelsey, Russell Wilson at the top, had Jimmy Graham, Tom Brady has Rob Gronkowski. These are all prolific tight ends that seem to directly affect these quarterbacks.

[Al Robinson]

That's very in Cam Newton as Greg Olson. Greg Ol. That's an interesting little nugget you have little observation. The top five quarterbacks all have, well.

[Jason Moore]

Top 10 tight ends.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Al Robinson]

I will not call Jimmy Graham elite, but he was elite.

[Jason Moore]

He helped in the red zone.

[Al Robinson]

Elite at catching touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Aaron Rodgers over in the corner laughing.

[Al Robinson]

I don't need your tag. I don't need you.

[Jason Moore]

Kirk Cousins, I'm Aaron Rogers. No, don't they have Martellus Bennett.

[Al Robinson]

Guys, discount double check.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the best joke you've ever said.

[Jason Moore]

Kirk Cousins in at number six, Fantasy's number six quarterback with a consistency rank of a middling quarterback, number 15 and consistency busted 44%. He busted as often as he was good.

[Andy Holloway]

He busted the same rate that Cam Newton did and he didn't have as many great games as Cam. I mean Kirk Cousins. Sorry, Mike. He might have finished the year number six. He was garbage this year for fantasy owners.

[Jason Moore]

He missed Jordan Reed. Look at, we just talked about the time. He really missed Jordan Reed. Yeah, Finishing drives, having third down conversions. Jordan Reed was the master of that.

[Al Robinson]

Yeah, he missed the hype of Trail Pryor too.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, we all missed that.

[Andy Holloway]

He, the way that he performed this year. Sure, he finished as number six. But if you were relying on him, you didn't even make the playoffs because you had stretches where it was like, okay, he had 20 points, 27 points. Okay, so he's great. You're going to start him. Everything lined up great. And at that start, you know when, when you were like, oh, he was fantastic, 10 points, then eight points. So it's like, okay, maybe he's in a lull. I'm not going to start him back to 27 and 25 and then he drops down to the teens to eight, finishes the year with a seven point game. I mean, it was, it was hard to predict him. You couldn't get these games right. And every time it looked like he was getting it together, he. He collapsed. He caused a lot of.

[Jason Moore]

Mike knows that from firsthand experience. Certainly you rolled him out there over Jameis Winston in one of the fantasy playoff weeks.

[Al Robinson]

I can't.

[Jason Moore]

I don't remember if you did or not. I feel like one week you did. He was tough to predict. Like Jason said, we'll figure out where he's at. Is he going to be back in Washington with another year with Jay Gruden, or is he going to be in a new destination? You know, he's another one of those guys. Jason and I both put him down as one to watch this off season because, look, you bring a great quarterback into another situation and you change everything.

[Andy Holloway]

It is, it is worth noting, you know, coming into this season, New England, maybe. I was, I was, you know, down on the Redskins because of all the change. When you lose your. I mean, this is. The inconsistency was not like this.

[Al Robinson]

They lost two 1,000 yard receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. And their offensive coordinator.

[Al Robinson]

Yeah, they're O.C.

[Andy Holloway]

So when you lose all of that, it's hard to be consistently good, even when you can have those big games. So if he does change teams, it's worth realizing he might have some bad games while he's figuring out the new set of receivers, the new playbook, all of that stuff. He's still a good quarterback. I would, you know, as an Arizona native, I'd love him to come to the Cardinals versus having.

[Al Robinson]

Where's it go?

[Andy Holloway]

We're calling our shot.

[Al Robinson]

Put it on the. On the books. Where's Kirk Cousins playing quarterback next year?

[Jason Moore]

Man, I'll give you.

[Al Robinson]

You can have two options. You can give two places, two locations.

[Jason Moore]

I'll throw Arizona in as one. And what do you do you have them in mind?

[Al Robinson]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Denver.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Al Robinson]

Arizona or Denver?

[Andy Holloway]

Denver.

[Al Robinson]

That's on my, on my books.

[Andy Holloway]

Denver would be my number. I'm going to go Denver and Cleveland. He said he would play there. Which if I'm a Browns general manager, any player that says, hey, I would like to play there and be like, bring him in. He says he wants to be here.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Where are we going? We're heading. We're heading to Matty Snapback.

[Al Robinson]

You should turn that hat around in.

[Andy Holloway]

Honor of Matty Snapback. The ball cap has gone backwards for Mr. Holloway. Oh. Oh, you just.

[Jason Moore]

I'm. Drink my coffee sidearm.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I like it. Very nice. If you're not on the YouTube. You spilled everywhere. Oh man. If you're not, if you're just listening on the podcast app, we thank you for being there. Subscribe, give a five star rating and also get on over to the video product over.

[Al Robinson]

I feel like I did that with my mind. When you said I'm gonna drink sideways, I'm like, that's gonna spill.

[Jason Moore]

I think gravity took that one.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike did. Gravity. With this, you can control gravity, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

What are you doing this show for? You're an X man, but your only power is to drink beverages sideways.

[Al Robinson]

That's all you have to make people spill.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, Matt Stafford, I got the hat on backwards. Look. He had another good year. 29 touchdowns, only 10 interceptions. One of the reasons why this Lions head coaching job and why we think Matt Patricia ends up there and, and they tried to turn this thing around. Jim Caldwell was kind of like to me he was a, an anchor that the boat had to drag. And I don't mean to be disrespectful to Caldwell, but that was pretty disrespectful. Yeah, but I just mean it's pretty accurate. It's just.

[Al Robinson]

No, I said no offense.

[Jason Moore]

The anchor only affects the ship at some later in the journey when you want to go to the next level. He could not carry the. I feel like they reached their camp with Jim Caldwell is my point. And so Matt Patricia is going to come in here most likely. But Matthew Stafford is a franchise quarterback. If you could ask for something under your tree as a new coach, it's a franchise quarterback and you've got one with Matthew Stafford. There's no doubt about that now. He busted 38% of the time. He was good 44% of the time. And I think we're going to hear a lot about, you know, smooth routes this offseason. Oh, because Kenny Golladay is going to be a breakout candidate.

[Andy Holloway]

Kenny G on the pipe.

[Al Robinson]

Oh, so smooth.

[Jason Moore]

You think Matthew Stafford's into jazz.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what was missing for Matthew Stafford this year? We're getting to the point, we're getting to the point of these quarterbacks. When I look at them all compared to each other. As we talk about the seventh, eighth and ninth ranked quarterbacks on the season which were Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees. Here's where you see these guys. Where you look, they finished as quarterback one see even top 10. But they were lacking the big blow up performances. Matthew Stafford has had that in the past and this year he only had two games. Only 13% of his games were those weak winning type of performances that really made him a valuable fantasy asset, you know. So that means to me, when you, when you lack the boom games, that's what's going to help you fall in the next year's draft. And so the question we have to ask is, is Stafford capable of the boom games at a higher rate than he did this year? I believe he is. So Stafford could be a value next year because, you know, 38% bust, that's about average of the top 12. It's what you're going to get from most of these guys. And I think his place to grow is the ability to have, you know, more deep bums, especially as Kenny Golladay grows, grows up a little and maybe just doesn't. Gets healthy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it just doesn't get hurt. Did you guys bring this up? The seventh season in a row?

[Al Robinson]

We did not.

[Jason Moore]

4,200 plus passing yards, that's like Drew Brees light from Drew Brees in his prime. I mean, it's pretty much what you get there. I love Matthew Stafford because he's going to be a value in the draft. I already know that.

[Al Robinson]

I just, I think that the time of Matthew Stafford early on his career when it was the 5,000 yards, the huge touchdowns amounts, I think that's gone. I think that Matthew Stafford has. Maybe it was just the coaching staff, but they had turned him into a game manager. I don't know if people realize exactly what had happened to Stafford. He can have a touch or game here and there where he throws three or four touchdowns, but it's just, it's not, it's not consistent like that anymore. His interceptions have come way down.

[Jason Moore]

Well, his accuracy, percentage, 60, 67, 65. 65.

[Al Robinson]

He's a much better NFL quarterback making much better decisions instead of just turning the hat around and throwing it sideways saying, I'll make that throw.

[Jason Moore]

You know, Calvin Johnson lets you be a little more frivolous with the ball.

[Al Robinson]

He certainly does.

[Jason Moore]

But I still like him. I still think you get something safe with him. And so if you are going to wait until the eighth round to draft a quarterback, ninth round, 10th round, and he's sitting there on the board and he can give you consistent weeks. You really have a good team.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And while, yes, you might not get the, you know, the outlier 41 touchdown season, but there's only a handful of quarterbacks that you can pretty much say, look, this guy has a really above, you know, a very realistic chance of throwing over 30 touchdowns. And you know, he had 29 this year. He's had 29 before. 32 before. I think that's in the realm of possibility.

[Al Robinson]

He's only been over 30 twice.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. Yes. He's been over 32 times. Once was 41, and then he's been at 29 two times. So he could. If you say next year, he has 33 touchdowns. That's very realistic.

[Al Robinson]

Plausible, yes.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's talk about Philip Rivers, the 8th ranked fantasy quarterback. The 6th ranked inconsistency. He only busted a quarter of the time. That's pretty much the lowest rate you can get at the quarterback position. And he was good 56% of the time.

[Al Robinson]

Sorry, before we jump fully into Philip Rivers, just wanted to bring up. Matt Stafford was five points better at home.

[Andy Holloway]

So those are definitely worth noting. Yes. If you're just.

[Jason Moore]

There's no way Philip Rivers doesn't wear his hat forward like me. Oh, I'm gonna put that on.

[Al Robinson]

Phil Rivers strikes me as a visor.

[Andy Holloway]

With that many kids, you got to set the example. That's a hat forward.

[Al Robinson]

Yeah, it's a visor. It's. It's cargo shorts.

[Jason Moore]

Do I look like I'm getting mad? Like getting mad at you guys because you made a bad play?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, my gosh. I will. You know, let me. Brooks, give me the camera.

[Al Robinson]

Oh, I'm backing up.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, Philip, I like you as a fantasy football player. I think I like you as a guy. I mean, everything I've heard about you in the locker room and you as a teammate and as a. As a citizen in your town. I like Philip Rivers. Okay, okay. Can we get that out of the way?

[Al Robinson]

Bodies of water, people named after them?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Oh, yeah. Big time. Philip, stop blaming every incomplete on everyone else with the worst face I've ever seen in my life. He grimaces every. Every play. It doesn't matter if you not realize.

[Jason Moore]

What that is, though.

[Andy Holloway]

20 yards, he's like, oh, your fault.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no. He eats a tide pod after every throw, dude. All right, that's what it is.

[Andy Holloway]

I need the camera again, Brooks. Philip, stop eating tide pods.

[Jason Moore]

Dude, they're not candy.

[Andy Holloway]

They're not.

[Jason Moore]

That's not grape jelly and then cherry. That's not a gusher.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you.

[Al Robinson]

Hold on, hold on.

[Andy Holloway]

We got to the.

[Al Robinson]

Are you sure?

[Andy Holloway]

Have you tried it?

[Jason Moore]

It does look pretty good. You think? Some vanilla in there.

[Al Robinson]

They smell good.

[Andy Holloway]

So Philip Rivers getting to fantasy football.

[Jason Moore]

4,500 yards, 28 touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

He's always going to air it out, obviously. I think one of the biggest differences this Year was he had Keenan Allen, he had a wide receiver one. And why he was consistent. He's always going to throw for the yards. He's good, you know, at throwing touchdowns. He, it's been the interceptions. Last year, two or two years ago now, he threw 21 interceptions, led the league two years prior to that through 18 and led the league in interceptions. But this previous season, only 11 interceptions. That was, that was the real difference. So do you think next year he's going to be the Philip Rivers we saw this past year or is he going to be the every other year high interception?

[Jason Moore]

He's going to be last. He's going to be this past year's Philip Rivers because this team is, they're building a very strong defense. Rivers had what, how many games in a row with 100 plus passing, passer rating? 9. Nine games in a row. He needs to manage this team. And he got back his best weapon, his most consistent weapon. He tried to do too much the year before because he was throwing to Dontrell Inman and random wide receivers this past year was impressive. 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. I would say, I mean the 21 interceptions last year was an outlier. That's not his, his career average. He's more in that 11 to 15 range. And so, yeah, 10, it's a little bit better than that. He still fumbled the ball five times, but he doesn't have to do as much still, you know, completed his passes, 62% of the time was on the field. And he's 36. I mean, we forget, we talk about Tom Brady, but we forget like Drew Brees is 39. Drew Brees is right at that same. Philip Rivers still has a couple years here. He's more in that Big Ben category. He's 36.

[Al Robinson]

The question for me, for Philip Rivers is will they, will they employ the same strategy with Keenan Allen? Because when Keenan Allen took flight and became superman for fantasy football, you're talking around week 10. From week 10 to the end of the season, Philip Rivers had three interceptions. And that was in one game against Kansas City. That was the complete and total meltdown. And in that time, Philip Rivers in those, in those seven games, Phil Rivers would have been on pace for over 5,000 yards.

[Jason Moore]

It was great. Austin Eckler helped.

[Al Robinson]

So that's everything for me on Phil Rivers is what is the offensive scheme with Keenan Allen?

[Jason Moore]

All right, I want to get through as many of these names as we can, so give me some, some brief analysis on kind of going into next year. Number nine, Drew Brees. Consistency rank of 13 this year was absolutely different than every year he's ever played since about 2007. This is the first time he hasn't had 30 touchdowns since 2007. He was at 23.

[Andy Holloway]

He was terrible.

[Jason Moore]

He dropped down from 37 to 23. Even if you got him as a quote value in the draft, he wasn't an actual value. He never had a great game, never had a top three week.

[Andy Holloway]

I do not understand at all how he finished as the number nine quarterback. I literally had to go back through and look at our data source just to, like, add them up. Because when you bust 44% of the time, that's what we were complaining about with Kirk Cousins. That's what we were complaining about with Cam Newton. And you had exactly zero big games. How did you finish as a top 10 quarterback? He. He didn't help you at all this year. There was never a game he won. There were plenty of games he lost for you. Drew Brees is, I mean, excellent. Didn't have Brandon Cook, but with their running game going with him at the age he's at, they have shifted to being a good defense, a good running game, and a perfect quarterback to do everything that is needed and nothing more. For fantasy. I don't want to touch Drew Brees ever again. Ooh. That's where I'm at.

[Jason Moore]

No, that's fair.

[Al Robinson]

It's the defensive switch that was huge. Super Camario also huge. Majorly detrimental to the fantasy production of Drew Brees.

[Jason Moore]

This was the first year better defense. Much better defense.

[Al Robinson]

This was the first year since 2008 that he has thrown fewer than 32 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Al Robinson]

And it went down to 23.

[Jason Moore]

I think I said that.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Oh, yeah.

[Al Robinson]

I apologize.

[Andy Holloway]

It was so good. It needed.

[Al Robinson]

I was adding the things up over here and wasn't listening.

[Jason Moore]

That's okay. Big Ben, number 10. Consistency, rank of number eight. By the way, the template for Drew Brees next year, I think is going to be the same. This team was one Hail Mary away from being in the title game. They'll follow the same pattern. Big Ben, he's coming back. He says he wants to play three more years. He threw 28 touchdowns. He won't have Todd Haley anymore. He busted 33% of the time. He was good 47% of the time and he was great 20% of the time. He did not have the home road split this year that we've seen in years past. From a fantasy perspective, he was actually down 0.6 points at home this year. He did average 283 passing yards per game. Second best of fantasy quarterbacks. Big Ben always is a relevant fantasy player as long as he has Antonio Brown. Now you've got juju Smith, Schuster and Lev Bell out of the backfield for 80 plus receptions. Big Ben, he belongs here. He belongs right 8 to 10 range.

[Andy Holloway]

He does. He got off to a really bad start this season and it's terrible. It's the tale of two seasons. First half of the year they had that week, nine by so perfect. Before the buy, after the buy. First half of the year he averaged 12 points a game. Everyone was disappointed they drafted him. Second half of the year, 22 points a game on average. Extremely consistent. And you were very happy you had Big Ben. I think coming back next year he should be fine. I mean they got their act together and like Andy said, he's got the weapons. So I will. It's hard to draft Big Ben because he's got the combo of the name. He always gets a little bit overvalued and I want him to slip, but I'd be fine with Big Ben next year.

[Jason Moore]

All right, what's the truth about Dak Prescott? Number 11 this season. Consistency rank of 18. Just 22 touchdowns. This came from the 25 Stats article. With 304.66 fantasy points in 6 point per TD leagues. Dak Prescott barely finished as a QB1 for the season. Lowest top 12 total since Mark Sanchez finished as the QB10 in 2011. He busted half the time.

[Andy Holloway]

50% of his games were not okay. They were bust.

[Jason Moore]

And you knew win a little bit because he was negative six points against top defenses.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he was.

[Jason Moore]

You sound like a man defeated.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean he came on, he came out.

[Al Robinson]

He was so hot for half of the year. He was great for fantasy purposes.

[Jason Moore]

So what is he though, moving forward?

[Al Robinson]

I have no idea.

[Andy Holloway]

This is the truth. This is where you find out the truth.

[Jason Moore]

And the truth is I don't. We don't know.

[Al Robinson]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

The Ezekiel Elliott variable, him being gone.

[Al Robinson]

For six games, Tyron Smith missing games.

[Jason Moore]

As Brian not being himself. Accuracy issues, you know, obviously 13 interceptions is a big part of it.

[Al Robinson]

Yeah, I think the accuracy, the decisions he was making later on the season, that's where it was weird. It just completely fell off the cliff.

[Jason Moore]

Now here's confidence.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the one thing I would say. And you know, Ezekiel Elliott does make a huge difference on that team and on deck. He had 10 games with him and he had six games without him on average. His 10 games with Zeke, he averaged 22.8 fantasy points a game, which is fantastic. Without him, 15 points a game, which would be almost averaging a bust.

[Jason Moore]

So, Brooks, how do you feel? You're the resident Dallas truther. Give us the truth about Dak Prescott. Tell us his exact stat line for next year. Stat line and finish for next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that'd be great. Instead, can I just say, I still believe in Dak?

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Al Robinson]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Is that the sentiment among Dallas fans right here?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, of course.

[Jason Moore]

You don't have a choice.

[Andy Holloway]

You have to.

[Jason Moore]

You don't have a choice.

[Al Robinson]

Brooks is the. He's the measure.

[Andy Holloway]

That's Mr. Simpson over there. Homer. Oh. Oh.

[Al Robinson]

Oh, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Sorry. Brooks.

[Al Robinson]

That was a great joke.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you. I'll be here all day.

[Jason Moore]

Tip your waitress if you heard the trumpet.

[Al Robinson]

That's a terrible joke. Why are you going with the. Tip your waitress?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know. My dad.

[Al Robinson]

You take everything away if you heard the horn.

[Jason Moore]

You know Jared Goff is coming.

[Al Robinson]

Oh, the king.

[Jason Moore]

Consistency, rank of 11, fantasy finish of 12.

[Al Robinson]

Your majesty.

[Jason Moore]

3,800 yards, 28 touchdowns and a minuscule seven interceptions. Put in a position to succeed under Sean McVay. And succeed he did. Now, what he didn't do was he couldn't take down. And we've seen this with young quarterbacks. He could not take. We saw this with Derek Carr, too. He can't take down a good defense.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I was going to say he.

[Jason Moore]

Is nine points fewer against top 16 defenses.

[Andy Holloway]

And it makes sense because if you watched Jared Goff's games, a lot of his touchdowns came on the wide receivers making the play happen. And you know when wide receivers are able to make those plays happen and break free from the defense when they play the Giants, when they play, poor defenses who aren't as good at tackling don't have as good a scheme and protection in the back end. So Jared Goff, to me, is a perfect streamer. Here's the reality. Next year, because his team's going to be intact every time.

[Jason Moore]

That's going to be good. He'll be good.

[Andy Holloway]

He'll be good. I'm going to look at the schedule when it comes out next year.

[Al Robinson]

I was just going to say it.

[Andy Holloway]

And look at those first three games, and I'll tell you whether he's undraftable or a must draft in those late rounds.

[Jason Moore]

I think he plays the Giants all three weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Draft them.

[Jason Moore]

All right, here's what I'm going to do because. Yeah, no, you're right. The truth about Jared Goff is that he's a streamer.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And you'll probably only have to pay streaming value for him.

[Andy Holloway]

Is there any quarterback finishing lower than this that next year you think is not just a streamer?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Your candidate for eight. Well, Matt Ryan was at 15 with a consistency rank of 27. I think he returned. He regressed past the mean. So I think Matt Ryan is a top 12, top 10 candidate next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. Andy Dalton had a really bad.

[Jason Moore]

Probably not going to project him though to improve very much because same coaching staff is back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

What about Marcus Mariota? He was 18th a consistency rank of 28. Derek Carr was 19th with a consistency rank of 29.

[Al Robinson]

Mariota is interesting.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Mariota definitely want to see exactly what happens with their head coach with their offensive coordinator. Definitely interested because he has the weapons he's got, you know, Decker and Corey Davis and Rashad Matthews. But Jameis Winston is the guy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what I was going to ask you. He finished.

[Andy Holloway]

He would be the number one.

[Jason Moore]

He finished 22nd at the wider quarterback position, but he was 14th in consistency. He busted as much as he had good games, but he, he was interesting.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean he was only had 13.

[Al Robinson]

Games in the second half once returning from the shoulder injury, he played tremendously better. He was still turning the ball over with his fumbles. He has to get that under control. But Jameis is better than the fantasy points he put up this season.

[Jason Moore]

Jimmy G. Or Mitch Trubisky. Are you buying into any sleep or hype on either of those guys?

[Andy Holloway]

Garoppolo? Yes, sure.

[Al Robinson]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

I think there's going to be a ton of people talking about Mitch Trubisky this off season due to the new head coach, the new offensive coordinator.

[Al Robinson]

Yeah, I love it.

[Andy Holloway]

I love it.

[Jason Moore]

They also, I believe they just brought in the recently fired offensive coordinator of the Raiders who got a lot of credit for grooming Derek Carr in the previous two years. I think they brought him in to help with Trubisky. It'll be interesting. I'm not projecting Mr. Bisky to have a breakout year. He could have a golf year.

[Al Robinson]

Well, they're going to have to get some wide receivers there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Al Robinson]

Their lack of weapons.

[Jason Moore]

Those guys are the ones that catch the ball.

[Al Robinson]

They are right. But the lack, lack of respect in this room for the man. Weeks 12 through 16 the overall quarterback one. I can. I am embarrassed right now, fellas.

[Andy Holloway]

We leave the best for last.

[Al Robinson]

Blake Bortles. The dude was a quarterback 12 years.

[Andy Holloway]

In a row and he took down the Patriots in the playoffs. Right. Fingers crossed, right? Maybe, maybe, maybe he did.

[Jason Moore]

He might have. Who really knows at this point?

[Andy Holloway]

No one.

[Jason Moore]

But he still need to watch those games.

[Al Robinson]

You talked about weapons. If they bring back Allen Robinson, which I think that they will, Alan Robinson, Pew and Cole, Marquise, Lee Marquis, Lee Fournette holding it down in the back.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, yeah, but he's going to be in the game manager category. When you have a defense like that, certainly.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

When you have a defense like that, there's 0% chance Blake Bortles is giving the keys to some offensive juggernaut.

[Andy Holloway]

But he. But what we have seen is that in those right matchups, if needed he can get the job done. Always has been able to. He came in. I mean if you look back at his career, every year he's usually finishing as like a top 10 fantasy option and nobody wants to touch him.

[Al Robinson]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

I just saw a team named Bordeaux Combat.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh so good finish him.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to read real quick. I'm just going to give you the rank and consistency. Rank of rank is the next few guys. Bortles was 13 consistency of 19. Case Keenum was 14 with a consistency of 16. Matt Ryan was the 15th ranked quarterback with a consistency rank of 27. Tyrod Taylor was 16 with a 23 consistency rank. Andy Dalton 17th with a consistency rank of 26. Marcus Mariota was 18 with a 28 consistency rank. Derek Carr was 19th with a 29th ranked consistency. Finishing up the top 20. Jacoby Brissette with a consistency rank of 35.

[Andy Holloway]

So amazing.

[Jason Moore]

That's the truth about fantasy quarterbacks. We will be back with you on Thursday and I bet you on Thursday we know what happened last week.

[Al Robinson]

More than likely. More than likely. Before we close out, I want to remind you support for today's show comes from Ctrl gx, the first shampoo that gradually reduces gray just for men. Just use Ctrl GX as you would your regular shampoo until you like what you see. Subtle natural looking results. Shampoo in, rinse out, move on. Most guys get the results they want in about two weeks. Look forward to a smart look. With Ctrl GX you can get 25% off Ctrl GX if you go to use the code [e-mail] that's controlgx.com the code is footballers 25% off.

[Jason Moore]

All right, that is it for the show. Thanks for supporting the podcast and join us on jointhefoot.com if you want an extra episode every week. And check out draft.comballers if you want to play some best ball with us this off season.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the Ffballers.