Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2017, Part 1

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2017, Part 1"

Release Date: January 16, 2018

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Introduction and Reflections on Recent Playoffs

The episode opens with hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright expressing their astonishment over unexpected outcomes in the recent NFL playoffs. Andy Holloway laments the Jaguars' surprising performance against the Titans:

Andy Holloway [01:02]: "Stefan Diggs, Case Keenum. The end of that game, absolutely bananas."

This discussion sets the tone for the episode, highlighting the unpredictable nature of football and its contrasting impact on fantasy football versus sports betting.

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The Truth Series: Analyzing Running Back Consistency

Andy Holloway introduces the episode's primary focus: running back (RB) consistency. This marks the continuation of their ongoing "Truth Series," where the trio objectively assesses player performances devoid of emotional biases.

Jason Moore [03:06]: "The truth serum is what we do is we take a look at the positions and we break down... who were the guys that were very consistent and did not crap your team."

Key insights from this segment include:

• Top-Tier RB Importance: The hosts emphasize the significant disparity in fantasy points between top RBs (e.g., RB1 vs. RB5) and how pivotal securing one of these elite players is for fantasy success.

• Consistency Metrics: They evaluate RBs based on their ability to deliver "great games" (22+ fantasy points), "good games" (10-21 points), and "busts" (fewer than 7 points). These metrics help determine each player's "consistency rank" for the season.

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Favorite Players of 2017

The hosts share their favorite players from the 2017 season, highlighting their standout performances and personal preferences:

• Mike Wright: Favors Kareem Hunt for his remarkable agility and ability to evade tackles, noting Hunt's prowess in both rushing and receiving yards.

  Mike Wright [06:12]: "Kareem Hunt... just shedding tackles, causing guys to miss, making professional football players look foolish."

• Jason Moore: Highlights DeAndre Hopkins, initially viewing him skeptically but growing to admire his exceptional wide-receiver skills.

  Jason Moore [06:27]: "DeAndre Hopkins was such a delight to watch. His hand fighting on every single play..."

• Andy Holloway: Chooses Adam Thielen for his consistent ability to stay open and make impactful plays, citing a memorable game-winning performance against Marshawn Lynch.

  Andy Holloway [08:30]: "Adam Thielen is always open, and he makes those big time."

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League News and Game Analysis

The trio delves into notable NFL games, sharing observations and opinions on performances:

• Falcons vs. Eagles: Praises Nick Foles' second-half resurgence despite a shaky start by the Falcons. They criticize Atlanta's play-calling, particularly the reliance on Tevin Coleman, especially with Devonta Freeman dealing with injuries.

  Mike Wright [09:51]: "Nick Foles was absolutely incredible... the Eagles shut the Falcons out in the second half."

• Patriots vs. Titans: Discusses the Patriots' strategy and Nate Solder's potential departure from the Titans, hinting at broader coaching changes within the league.

• Saints vs. Vikings: Reflects on the thrilling and heartbreaking nature of the game, sympathizing with fans from both teams due to the game's unpredictable twists.

  Jason Moore [14:41]: "I've never been more thrilled for a people group at the same time as being heartbroken."

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In-Depth Running Back Performance Analysis

The crux of the episode centers on evaluating the consistency and performance of the top RBs from the 2017 season. The hosts meticulously dissect each player's contributions, consistency rankings, and potential future implications for fantasy football.

1. Todd Gurley: The Benchmark RB

• Performance Metrics:
  • Carries: 279
  • Rushing Yards: 1,300+
  • Rushing TDs: 13
  • Receptions: 64
  • Receiving Yards: 788
  • Receiving TDs: 6

Todd Gurley stands out as both the top fantasy RB and the most consistent performer:

Andy Holloway [22:56]: "Good in 93%, busted and won and then great in 53 of the 93%."

Gurley's ability to contribute both on the ground and through the air solidifies his elite status, making him indispensable for fantasy teams.

2. Le'Veon Bell: Consistency Meets Potential Contract Concerns

• Performance Metrics:
  • Carries: 321
  • Rushing Yards: 1,091
  • Rushing TDs: 9
  • Receptions: 85
  • Receiving Yards: 416

Le'Veon Bell mirrors Gurley's performance in many ways but brings up concerns regarding his contract negotiations with the Steelers. The hosts debate whether Bell will play under the franchise tag or potentially retire due to perceived unfair contract terms.

Mike Wright [30:34]: "If you give a guy the ball over 400 times... you have to pay him accordingly."

3. Alvin Kamara: The Emerging Dual Threat

• Performance Metrics:
  • Carries: Not explicitly stated
  • Receptions: 81
  • Receiving Yards: 350
  • Receiving TDs: 5

Alvin Kamara's heightened involvement in the passing game significantly boosts his fantasy value. The hosts discuss Kamara's flexibility and the potential for future growth, making him a strong consideration in drafts.

Andy Holloway [34:37]: "Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt, who do you draft first in a half point between."

4. LaShawn McCoy: Steady but Underappreciated

• Performance Metrics:
  • Carries: 287
  • Rushing Yards: 1,138
  • Rushing TDs: 6
  • Receptions: 69
  • Receiving Yards: 448

LaShawn McCoy showcases consistent performance, though there's debate over whether his role in Colt's new offensive setup will sustain his production.

Andy Holloway [45:54]: "Speculation about his age and his carry totals... that's why I think it'll be undervalued."

5. Alvin Kamara and Other Notables

• Other RBs Discussed:
  • Devonta Freeman: Limited by injuries, but generally positive contributions when active.
  • Mark Ingram: Maintains solid performance with significant yardage and touchdowns.
  • Leonard Fournette: Despite missing games due to injury, Fournette demonstrates high efficiency when he plays.

The analysis extends to comparing consistent performers like Melvin Gordon against more volatile players like Kareem Hunt, emphasizing the importance of understanding each player's role and potential for future consistency.

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Implications for Fantasy Football Drafting

The hosts translate their in-depth RB analysis into actionable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts:

• Prioritizing Top RBs: Securing a top-tier RB like Todd Gurley or Le'Veon Bell is crucial due to the substantial point differential they provide compared to mid-tier or lower RBs.

• Assessing Consistency vs. Upside: While some RBs offer high upside with occasional explosive games, others provide more consistent, reliable points. The choice depends on team strategy and risk tolerance.

• Considering Team Dynamics: Future performances may be influenced by changes in team structures, such as coaching shifts or quarterback acquisitions, impacting RB opportunities and usage.

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Conclusion and Teasers for Future Episodes

Wrapping up, the hosts hint at upcoming discussions delving deeper into RB analyses and exploring additional players like Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Miller, and others. They also encourage listeners to engage with their community on social media and participate in ongoing polls to influence future content.

Jason Moore [60:53]: "Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter @TheFFBallers."

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway [01:02]: "Stefan Diggs, Case Keenum. The end of that game, absolutely bananas."

• Mike Wright [06:12]: "Kareem Hunt... just shedding tackles, causing guys to miss, making professional football players look foolish."

• Jason Moore [03:06]: "Regardless of how a guy felt... we are now taking a look basically from top to bottom at all of the running backs..."

• Andy Holloway [08:30]: "Adam Thielen is always open, and he makes those big time."

• Jason Moore [27:49]: "Melvin Gordon did not even have two games under 10 points back to back the entire year."

• Andy Holloway [34:37]: "Alvin Camara and Kareem Hunt, who do you draft first in a half point between."

These quotes encapsulate the hosts' candid and analytical approach to discussing fantasy football nuances, particularly concerning running back performance and consistency.

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the essence of the Fantasy Footballers' episode, providing valuable insights into running back evaluations, strategic fantasy drafting considerations, and reflections on the 2017 NFL season's unpredictability.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Today's episode is brought to you by fantasychamps.com your home for trophies, rings, championship belts and custom fantasy football jerseys. Use the promo code ballers to save 10%.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the Play Draft studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Smh.

[Jason Moore]

Whoa.

[Andy Holloway]

Just shaking my head after that weekend of football.

[Mike Wright]

Thought you were going a different direction, but all right.

[Andy Holloway]

Can you believe.

[Mike Wright]

No, no.

[Andy Holloway]

Impossible.

[Mike Wright]

Impossible.

[Andy Holloway]

And yet. NFL football, playoff football. Welcome into the show. It feels like it's been forever.

[Mike Wright]

You're talking about the Titans just getting smashed, right? Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Impossible. I was so sure. No, no, no, no. I was obviously talking about the Jaguars. That's who. No. Stefan Diggs, Case Keenum. The end of that game, absolutely bananas. I at a loss for words. How does that happen? I don't know if you watched it. This is why we love football. This is why we love fantasy football. This not so much why you love sports betting. I believe that pushed the line. I believe that made it a push. And it also ruined the over under for those that were under. But that's not what this show's about.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

I could watch that last play a hundred times in a row and not grow tired of just the incredible human reaction. The fact that it was a home game.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

For that team to pull it out at the end for the Vikings, I mean, it was you. I've watched every angle, every broadcast, and I could do it all over again.

[Andy Holloway]

Radio call.

[Jason Moore]

It's just unbelievable. Can you watch?

[Andy Holloway]

I can't imagine a Vikings fan.

[Mike Wright]

No. It's. To be at that stadium in that moment, I can't even imagine now.

[Andy Holloway]

I was at a Cardinal Packer playoff game where it was a walk off. Right. It went to overtime and there was a fumble. And that was the closest that I can get to.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, feeling that emotion.

[Mike Wright]

Not as dramatic.

[Andy Holloway]

No, not as dramatic.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So incredible. We'll talk more about these playoff matchups as well. We got a good quick question on the show today. We are the fantasy footballers and we are your year round fantasy football podcast, always bringing you what you need to win. And we are sitting here, it's Tuesday, January 16th, and today we begin our journey into running back consistency. This is the truth.

[Mike Wright]

Tell the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

So what are we talking about with the truth? I mean, we did these episodes last week with the wide receiver position, but break it down for me, Jay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So the truth series that we've been going through, the truth serum is what we do is we take a look at the positions and we break down. Okay, Regardless of how a guy felt, whether you owned a guy and you felt those really bad games or you felt those really good games, or maybe you didn't have any stake in a certain running back who might have been a whole lot better than you remember. We are now taking a look basically from top to bottom at all of the running backs and saying, let's actually see how do they do, who helped people, who was. Who were the guys that were very consistent and did not crap your team. And the more that we've looked into this with running backs, the more that I am fully convinced you have to have a top running back. The difference between the top few running backs, especially the top 10 running backs, and anyone else at any other position, with the sole exception of maybe Gronk alone at tight end, it is an unfair advantage that is so weighty, you can't really make up for it in any other way if you don't have one of those guys and you were going deep into the playoffs, you needed three top 10 wide receiver type of guys to have this level of consistency.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And you, you ran an interesting Twitter poll. We'll get into later. Sometimes you do need truth serum because when a player starts the year a certain way or they finished the year a certain way, that permeates your feeling about a player through the offseason. It affects the draft position and you don't realize what actually happened. I mean, Kareem Hunt is one of those players that. There's a distortion, right, to the view of Kareem Hunt and we're going to look into all of that today. I'm excited we're removing the emotion. Yeah, yeah. And you need that. You need that to be able to look clearly for next year and be able to balance building a team the right way. You can find us on twitter @the ff ballers. Our community where you get an extra episode every week is jointhefoot.com the website's the fantasy footballers.com and we're on all the social media platforms, Facebook and YouTube. You can watch our show. You can find us everywhere. Mike is waving. Here's a quick question for you, a fun one. Who is your favorite player to watch in 2017? And Brooks pre selected this. Brooks is actually out of the office today.

[Mike Wright]

What a slacker.

[Andy Holloway]

This is the first time that's happened in more than a year, so.

[Jason Moore]

Last time.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, last time. But he set this one up. It says, who's your favorite player to watch? And he says, we cannot pick Super.

[Mike Wright]

Kamari, It's a fair stipulation.

[Andy Holloway]

No Alvin Camara allowed.

[Mike Wright]

Watching Alvin Camaro is incredible. I'll kick it off. It's. It's Kareem Hunt. Well, we'll get into the truth about his actual numbers, but watch Kareem Hunt when he's actually getting carries. And he is unbelievable. I mean, the guy very, very rarely goes down with the first tackle. I mean, just shedding, shedding tackles, causing guys to miss, to making professional football players look foolish. So Kareem Hunt was. Was by far my favorite guy to watch as he takes a three yard carry and all of a sudden he got seven yards. Yeah, he was my favorite.

[Jason Moore]

The rookie running backs this year were a delight to watch all the way around. For me, I actually think the guy that I enjoyed watching the most was possibly my biggest miss coming into the season. I was not high at all on DeAndre Hopkins and his outlook coming into the season. I was wrong because he's good. But what he won me over this year because of watching. He was such a delight to watch. I mean, his hand fighting on every single play against every team.

[Mike Wright]

That's what we'll call it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we'll call it hand fighting. No, no, I.

[Andy Holloway]

All the good ones do that, but they fight through his special.

[Mike Wright]

More egregious, though.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know. I think he's just got really strong.

[Andy Holloway]

People just want to take away from him.

[Jason Moore]

Clampy, strong hands.

[Andy Holloway]

He has clampy hands.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Michael, give him the clamps.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, I feel like he could take this mug and just shatter it with his hand. And he's using these things as they go down the field, right off the line, just always.

[Andy Holloway]

We've seen this, right? You've seen what he does to his gloves, right? Neither of you know this?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

His hands are so big. I'm not joking. When he puts the biggest gloves on, he on the sideline, he takes scissors and he cuts in between the fingers and the thumb.

[Jason Moore]

Is this true?

[Andy Holloway]

This is absolutely true. So that his hands can stretch better in the glove. This is not a joke. He actually has to modify every new pair of gloves he puts on. And he cuts the brakes so that his hands can stretch properly.

[Mike Wright]

Hmm.

[Jason Moore]

If I were another wide receiver, I would be going, huh, here's maybe I should cut my gloves.

[Mike Wright]

Attention Nike. Did you know that DeAndre Hopkins needs bigger gloves? Maybe you can, maybe you can help him out.

[Andy Holloway]

It might not just be the size, it might be the dexterity of, like, he can move his. That way. He can Move his.

[Jason Moore]

So the gloves just suck. Nike. We're going to need some more dexterity built in.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so you went with DeAndre Hopkins. I'm going to go deeper. It'd be easy to say Todd Gurley after this season and the amount of big games he had.

[Mike Wright]

He's pretty fun to watch.

[Andy Holloway]

He's fun to watch, but I'm actually going to go with just a personal favorite, a player from late last year that I just love to watch play football. And it's Adam Thielen. Ao always open. I mean, Adam Thielen is always open, and he makes those big time. I mean, you saw this yesterday. He climbed the ladder against Marshawn Lattimore. He went up about, I don't know, three feet higher than I can jump.

[Jason Moore]

And so you went up three feet.

[Andy Holloway]

Three and a half feet. And look, he always holds on to the ball. I love players that can finish the play. Right. Like, you notice that when new young wide receivers, rookies, they come in and you just. They don't have that it factor. Well, he, he's. He's had it. And he proved himself to be an elite wide receiver option all year long. Big plays yesterday. So I'm gonna go with Adam Thielen. I think he's a blast to watch.

[Jason Moore]

I love that.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's jump into some news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk through these games a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

I just wanted to give, you know, let's give a quick takeaway from. From each game.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Or just what you noticed. And I'll start it with the Falcons and the Eagles. And this is. You got to give a tip of the cap. Actually, I'll go a tip of half of my cap.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

For Nick Foles. Because the second half of the game, Nick Foles was absolutely incredible. He was not very good during the first half of the game, but it was enough. I gave the Eagles very little chance to overcome the Falcons, but they. The defense is so strong for the Eagles, they shut the Falcons out in the second half.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll just say lost opportunities for Atlanta. I felt like they should have gone into halftime, probably winning by 20 points, and they couldn't get it done.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe keep giving Tevin Coleman the ball. He was playing so well.

[Andy Holloway]

And it came out after the game.

[Mike Wright]

That, yeah, devontae Ferraima Freeman was dealing with. It was an MCL and a piece PCL sprain. I mean, you're right. Jason Tevin Coleman, every time he touched the ball, it seemed like it Was a chunk play. And then they get down to the goal line. They go a. It's a run Ward. How about you come in and we're going to flick the ball to you.

[Andy Holloway]

Where is Tevin Cole Sarkeesian and these like outthink myself goal line plays. I just don't understand it. It seems like that's a pre. It's a requirement.

[Jason Moore]

All that being said, I have watched that Julio last second play so many more times since the. Since the end of that weekend and I'm shocked that he didn't make the grab.

[Mike Wright]

I mean I don't think his feet were coming down and bound.

[Jason Moore]

His feet came in like an inch on the white. But my guess is if he had.

[Andy Holloway]

The ball in his hand, that's my guess.

[Jason Moore]

He would not. I mean he didn't have the ball in his hands. He wasn't trying to get his feet in. Yep. So I think I watch it and I'm like, wait, he got. That throw was good. It was timed well.

[Andy Holloway]

He got surprised a little bit.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Because he was coming up from being tackled. So I mean that was a play that you. I'm not saying you should have called that in that situation, but it obviously surprised him. He came out and said he should have made that play. Patriots and Titans take away from that game.

[Mike Wright]

Hope you played Corey Davis in your DFS lineups for those. Nice.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a nice catch.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Made me. I made a trade off for four minute dynasty after seeing his involvement in the red zone.

[Jason Moore]

Otherwise, I mean, not much to take away. The Patriots are better than the Titans as.

[Andy Holloway]

There you go.

[Jason Moore]

Everyone thought they would be. I mean are there any major takeaways there?

[Mike Wright]

Just Dion Lewis.

[Andy Holloway]

Rex Burkhead may play next week.

[Mike Wright]

It'll be interesting to see what they do. James White is back. He loves the playoffs.

[Andy Holloway]

He loves the playoffs. And Dion Lewis was great as well. Jacksonville.

[Mike Wright]

Whoo.

[Andy Holloway]

Pittsburgh.

[Mike Wright]

So here's.

[Jason Moore]

I got a snake.

[Andy Holloway]

I got a snake.

[Mike Wright]

That's the snake you're talking. This is an anaconda now and anaconda is about to swallow the world.

[Andy Holloway]

If Blake portals like Blake, it can't happen.

[Mike Wright]

Blake the snake can be in the Super Bowl. I will just be so great to watch the world burn now if.

[Jason Moore]

If everyone is not aware of the Blake Bortles facts, Twitter, it's on fire lately. I mean you got to give it a follow. It's so good. But Blake Bortles and the more so the Jacksonville. Well, yes, he did his is third down passing was great but honestly, you know the shazierless Pittsburgh Steelers. Their defense has not been the same since he went down. And, you know, the Steelers offense did everything they could. I mean, whenever you get a 42 to 45 game, that was a really fun one, but it's going to be.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you guys. Blake Bortles. Playoff losses, 0. Tom Brady, 9.

[Mike Wright]

Is that Blake Bortles? Facts.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Did you guys catch the clip of Calais Campbell being interviewed a week ago?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And he threw out the scores of something. We can either beat him three to nothing or we can beat him 45 to 42.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Call that. How does that happen?

[Mike Wright]

That's impossible.

[Andy Holloway]

They won twice in Pittsburgh. And then, look, this comes down to me. You know, you can say what you want about Tom and the play calls at the end and the onside kick and the timeout, really weird daily play calls, but that's kind of like, you know, that's like the last bite of the Sunday. You show the defense didn't show up. You don't give up 45 at home to the Jags and then get mad about an onsite kick. You didn't time up. Right. I mean, to me, it's just that game was lost, you know, in the. In the second, third and fourth quarter when they gave up, you know, so many points.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So. And then the Saints and the Vikings, the game to end all games. Unbelievable. Unbelievable performance by both teams. The Saints, they came back, they looked dead. They come back in the second half, they put the game on ice, or so we think. And then a play that you just can't explain.

[Jason Moore]

I've never been more thrilled for a people group at the same time as being heartbroken.

[Andy Holloway]

A purple people group.

[Jason Moore]

A purple people eater group. I mean, around here, we just happen to have, just by luck, a lot of our friends are Vikings fans and a lot of our friends are Saints fans. So it was like, I felt so sorry for people. I mean, nobody deserved to lose that game. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

The Horns for a preseason Saints super bowl call to. No. To go down against that. That was the play that had to take away the magic.

[Andy Holloway]

I got trolled this morning. Someone sent me a message and said, yeah, your Saints call looks pretty bad now, doesn't it? I'm like, I guess.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, they lost.

[Mike Wright]

Technically, we did lose. Very incorrect.

[Jason Moore]

I am so dumb. That's like. That's as good as my favorite Blake Bortles fact. Which is. Which is this. Blake Bortles and Tom Brady have combined for five Super bowl titles, four Super Bowl MVP awards, 13 Pro Bowls and two NFL MVP awards. And they're going head to head this coming week.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we'll move on. I want to get into this consistency stuff with the running backs. That's the. The meat and potatoes of today's show. A little bit more news now. Entering the game against the Patriots, a lot of talk about the Titans head coach Mike Malarkey. The report was that he was still on the hot seat. And then.

[Jason Moore]

Breaking news.

[Andy Holloway]

Good news or bad news, depending on your perspective. Mike Malarkey set to sign an extension with the Titans. His news broke after the big.

[Mike Wright]

We told him you're our guy. We're gonna extend you after the game is over.

[Jason Moore]

Cool. All right. Breaking news.

[Andy Holloway]

The Titans and coach Mike Malarkey have mutually agreed to part ways.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, all right. This is. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

So now we're hearing that Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots, is expected to take the Colts job. He's going to leave the Titans. Now. Who are the Titans going to get?

[Jason Moore]

I thought you were going to keep this breaking news thing running because it was breaking news like 20 minutes ago or, you know, however long ago that he was going to take the Titans.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's why I started that news bit. Right there is. I forgot that it had already switched.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And now apparently he is set to take the Colts job. We don't know who's the leading candidate now for the Titans.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm hearing could be Mike Vrabel. Mike Vrabel.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Texans D. And then Pat Schumer is currently expected to take the New York Giants head coaching job. The current offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings.

[Andy Holloway]

And Matt Patricia. Supposed to go to the Lions.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. A lot of changes. I will say this for everyone out there. People love these truth episodes. I think they're really valuable. But the episodes that I. Or the episode that I think is the most valuable. My favorite favorite one to research during the off season is our coaching changes episode. We won't do that until all the chips land and we have time to do really good research. But looking back, year after year, those things are what moves needles in gigantic fashions for teams. So stay tuned and look forward to that.

[Andy Holloway]

Some of those big impact situations. Tom Cables now the offensive line coach in Oakland.

[Mike Wright]

Good luck, Oakland.

[Andy Holloway]

The Bills fired their offensive coordinator, Rick Denison. That's going to matter. You know, they brought in ex Alabama offensive coordinator Brian Deball. You have the former Oregon head coach.

[Mike Wright]

I love it.

[Andy Holloway]

Going to Chicago now. Mark Elfrech.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man, I. I love it. I mean, this is a guy he played under or he coached under. Chip Kelly eventually rose to the head coach. Get fresh offensive minds in here. Stop hiring freaking Norv Turner.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah, the Panthers hired North Turner. Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, stop. Just. Just stop with these guys who are bouncing everywhere. I mean, get. I love it. I'm so happy for the Bears that they're moving in this direction as opposed to.

[Andy Holloway]

You're not a big fan of what Oakland's doing.

[Mike Wright]

No, I am not.

[Andy Holloway]

Because Oakland's bringing in a lot of. Look, I saw Mike Shanahan when he went to Washington. It didn't work to just sign guys that were good a while back. Yeah, and that's the concern with the staff that Gruden's putting together.

[Mike Wright]

Look, we have these movies. Every generation starts putting them out and Hollywood comes out. All the old guys, what was the last one was like the Expendables, Freeman and I can't remember, but they all come together. They're old, they're going to rob a bank. There's a certain. There's a certain demo that likes these movies and goes to see them. It doesn't work anymore with the youth of the NFL. Things are changing in the NFL big time. And you'll hear some of these numbers for when we're going to talk about what is happening to running backs. I. To go with the retread, I think is a gigantic mistake. And I. My concern for Oakland is just. Is building and building.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, before we get into the truth of the running backs, want to pause for a minute and let you know that support for today's show comes from brand new an innovative shampoo. Introducing Ctrl gx, the first gray reducing shampoo from Just for Men.

[Mike Wright]

Look, the Raiders are going to need it.

[Andy Holloway]

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[Mike Wright]

Gotta look good. You want a good luck, you head over to pristineauction.com the best sports memorabilia site in the entire known history of time.

[Andy Holloway]

You, I didn't think you could upgrade, but you did.

[Mike Wright]

I think we've hit the threshold of where I can go with that hyperbolic statement, but it's actually true. I love Pristine Auction. They have hundreds of daily auctions. Get new stuff all the time. And I want to read off some of these prices because just based off of what has happened over the weekend, somebody might have got some steals. Such as a Stefan Diggs signed Vikings color rush jersey for $86. I bet that's fine. Person can walk through downtown Minneapolis and triple there.

[Jason Moore]

Triple.

[Mike Wright]

Whatever they bought that for.

[Andy Holloway]

You're probably right.

[Jason Moore]

Or get mugged.

[Mike Wright]

Or get mugged.

[Jason Moore]

One of the two. So very valuable item there.

[Mike Wright]

Stay safe, Stay safe. A Devonte Adams signed Packers jersey, $88. Assigned Le'Veon Bell jersey, $88. I mean these, these prices are ridiculous. Go check it out. The signatures are always authentic. They use the best authenticators in the business. JSA, etc. Go check them out. You can make a completely free account when you do it, let them know that the fantasy footballer sent you. P R I S T I n.

[Andy Holloway]

E auction.com all right, without further ado, let's do it.

[Jason Moore]

You want answers?

[Mike Wright]

I think I'm entitled.

[Jason Moore]

You want answers?

[Andy Holloway]

I want the truth.

[Jason Moore]

You can't handle the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, it's time to tell the truth about the fantasy running backs for this past season. What a year it was for one Todd Gurley. Let me break this down for you. If you look at the difference in fantasy points between positions, the RB one, which was Gurley, and Le'Veon Bell, who was the RB two, 52 and a half, 52.2 fantasy point difference.

[Mike Wright]

And this is half point scoring.

[Andy Holloway]

In half point scoring, the difference between Gurley, the RB1 and the RB5 was 92 fantasy points. If you go from RB1 down to RB12, that's 163 point difference. That's massive. And then you go from RB12 to RB24, that gap is only 38 points. So this is starting to. You're starting to get the picture right of what the high profile top tier running back does for your fantasy team and the difference it makes.

[Mike Wright]

And for the people who are like, wow, well, Todd Gurley, I mean that was a unbelievable performance. The season was incredible. Last year David Johnson had more fantasy points than Todd Gurley had this year. So this is not abnormal. You see the top three running backs, when everything is shaken out are massively valuable to your team. And I just wanted to give an over overview of what running backs are looking like. Because it was down running backs, just on the ground, it was overall down compared to 2016. It wasn't as bad as the bleak 2015. We all remember when running backs were pronounced dead and it was everything was zero running back. We've bounced back a little bit since then. However, last year, seven running backs, 10 plus rushing touchdowns. This year only two. Here is the big difference I want to start in 2015. Eight running backs had 50 or more receptions. 2016, 11 running back, that's more had 50 or more receptions. This year, 14 running backs had 50 plus receptions. Now it hasn't changed or affected how many running backs are scoring four plus receiving touchdowns. But more and more in today's NFL. This is what I was talking about. The NFL is changing. Passing to the running back is crucial in today's NFL 14 and in the matter of two years you have almost doubled the amount of running backs getting 50 plus receptions. That is what they call a boatload.

[Andy Holloway]

It's one of the reasons why I'm very uncertain about a guy like Derrick Henry. Whereas I think maybe DeMarco Murray, you know, they cut him and they say they're $6.3 million.

[Mike Wright]

I think they will.

[Andy Holloway]

They're going to draft somebody. That's my prediction for Tennessee. They're going to draft another running back to compliment Derek Henry, to provide more in the passing game. Say what you will about Derek Henry and his ability, the confidence that they, the previous coaching staff has shown in his pass catching ability isn't there. I think you're going to see a compliment there. That's why I don't know what to do with him exactly. In dynasty leagues we'll find out. But you're right. Look at the players that made huge impacts. I mean Alvin Kamara is a wide receiver and he lines up at wide receiver all the time. What Kareem Hunt did in the past game, running a seam route early on in the year and taking it to the house.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean lev Bell with 85 receptions, Todd Gurley with 64. Those four running backs right there, Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, Cream Hunt and Alvin Camara all outscored the number one wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins.

[Andy Holloway]

So we're going to break down the fantasy running backs. We're going to go in order of fantasy points produced and then we're going to give you their consistency rank for the year. And a reminder, here's how we broke down consistency. We looked at players and we looked and we basically said, hey, how many great games did they give us? A great games in the running back position, that's something that is over what, 22 points and above 22 points.

[Jason Moore]

That's basically going to give you what amounts to around a top five running back performance on a weekly basis.

[Andy Holloway]

Good games, more than 10 points, which puts you in that top 24 range on average. And then bus games, if you're fewer than seven points, you're outside the top 50 on average. That's considered a bust. And we look at those three factors and we determine a consistency rank for you on the year as a running back. And so look, we'll start with one that that worked out both directions. Todd Guller was the number one fantasy running back in half point and he was the number one most consistent. He had 15. He played 15 games this year. 279 carries, 1300 plus yards on the ground, 13 touchdowns on the ground, another 64 receptions for 788 yards and six touchdowns. This was David Johnson from last year in a lot of ways. I mean, Johnson caught a few more passes like you said, But a combined 19 touchdowns, that's ridiculous. And he was considered good in 93% of games and that encapsulates the great games too. So good in 93%, busted and won and then great in 53 of the 93%. That is an incredible season for Todd Gurley. Not that you need to be reminded, right, because you're probably, you probably already have a picture up on the wall. If he took you to the.

[Mike Wright]

He took you to the title game or he took you out of the title game. So your picture could be a dartboard.

[Jason Moore]

If you.

[Mike Wright]

For me, for example, and you look at his splits because we're going to bring those up. There's really nothing to mention a half a point difference between top and bottom. Sixteen defenses, rushing defenses, that is his home road splits, 2.6 points better at home, no big deal here.

[Jason Moore]

It was a great year. It didn't matter what the schedule was. I know early in the season I myself and you might a little bit had the worries about what happens when he faces that got a case of the worries and Sean McVeigh said, Don't worry, yeah, I'm going to pass him the ball, he'll be just fine. And in those games against those tougher defenses, you saw him step up in the passing game. Todd Gurley's as safe as it comes. Next year he'll be in that conversation for that, you know, one on one pick and.

[Andy Holloway]

And he should be.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And it's funny because you just brought up the coaching changes episode. There's no greater case of, you know, improvement by coach than Todd Gurley. And you're in a situation there. You know, saw, sometimes we get in here and we go, andy Reid, why? You know, why don't you just do this with Kareem Hunt? Or you say that about another team. Why don't you just do this with Jiji or this player? Yeah, sometimes they do it. I mean, this was just John McVeigh. He was in the corner going, yeah, that sounds good. I bet if I give it to my best player more often, we'll score more points.

[Mike Wright]

Success.

[Jason Moore]

Great, great coach. I think I can be a coach.

[Andy Holloway]

Whereas Steve Sarkeesian says, you know what to run Ward.

[Jason Moore]

We're gonna try.

[Andy Holloway]

I owe him one. I owe him one. Because that's the solution for a partially injured. Devonta Freeman was putting in Toron Ward. All right. Lev Bell, number two on the year and the number two most consistent running back. 321 carries. If you compare that to Gurley's 279, that's a lot more. 42 more. 12, 91 yards on the ground, nine touchdowns, 85 receptions. Mike, you were. I was just going to say there's.

[Mike Wright]

Not much to say about Le'Veon Bell. 40% of the time was a great game, 93% good. He only busted 7% of the time. His numbers are almost identical to Gurley, save for a handful of touchdowns. My bigger question is going to be how much stock are you guys putting into Levy on Bell coming out and saying that he would rather retire than play under what he deems as an unfair contract. If the Steelers were to, say, franchise him again or they offer him just an amount of money, he does not see fit for what he did, what he gives to that offense.

[Andy Holloway]

I gave that some thought this week and Jason, you share your thoughts and I'll share mine.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I don't think it will happen. I think they'll franchise him. I think he'll play on the franchise tag. But my guess is that it will scare the crud out of everyone because he will hold out for a while. He's not going to just sign it and come into Camp, you know, he's going to be one of those, you know, wait it out, rest, do his own thing and then at the last minute sign it, come in. And that's going to be really scary because of the draft capital that it's going to cost to get Le'Veon Bell. News came out that Big Ben is planning on being back in 2018, which is great. Great for Antonio Brown, great for Love Bell and that whole offense, but I do think he plays on the franchise tag. You're talking about, you know, close to 15 million.

[Mike Wright]

It would be 14 and a half million for next season. And. But I mean, can the Steelers even. Can you put that cap.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, they tried to. They tried to put a two year, 30 million dollar deal together for him.

[Mike Wright]

Well, they are. I side complete with Le'Veon Bell on this one. You give a guy the ball over 400 times or the number he was throwing out, you got to. You have to pay him accordingly. I know he's a running back and technically you think, well, we have to give him running back money. He does far more.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't disagree with any of that. But I do think that the Steelers are playing this situation to their advantage. Running back, shelf life, motivation to play at the top of your game. Look, I don't know Le'Veon Bell. I don't know the man. Right, right. But I do know that there is a tendency, human nature, to, when you get that deal, sometimes the edge is gone. And if you have the combination of the amount of money you have to spend on a player of his caliber, his age, the fact that it doesn't last forever in the NFL, I'm not sure that the Steelers aren't doing the smartest thing. If I was playing him on a.

[Jason Moore]

Franchise team, I would franchise him again, without a doubt.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, you. What are they.

[Jason Moore]

That's why I thought he was smart when he came out and said I might retire, franchise me. Just negotiated power.

[Andy Holloway]

But $50 million says he won't.

[Mike Wright]

Because if, if Big Ben next year has to be it right for Big Ben.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

I think it would.

[Andy Holloway]

If he goes out, if they go out and they lose in the AFC title game next year, I'm not sure he retires.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it was. That was a lot of smoke.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe, maybe he's gone.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll find out.

[Jason Moore]

He's certainly not going to play forever.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just saying. Okay, well, if we only have Big Ben for one more year. Okay, give Le'Veon Bell his one year franchise deal and then be done.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Alvin Camara finished the year as the third best fantasy running back. Props to Jason. Early in the year, a big favorite of his was Alvin Kamara. Consistency rank of number six. Okay. Good games, 81% of the time, 19% bust. He was great in 31% of games. He was great. Yes, in 31% of games. The thing about Alvin Camara, I don't read too much into this consistency number.

[Mike Wright]

No, because it didn't.

[Andy Holloway]

He didn't start because he didn't start the year. As you know, two of his established.

[Jason Moore]

Busts were week one and week two.

[Andy Holloway]

Out of there, Jeff, no one, no.

[Jason Moore]

One was really playing him in those weeks. You didn't draft Alec Camara and throw him into your lineup week one. You were waiting to see what you had. You didn't see anything worthy of starting in week two. So it was a couple weeks until he got going. But once he did, you know, once Adrian Peterson left and it was a two man show, you wrote him the rest of the way and he was about as consistent as it got.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And the concussion game, I think was really the only blip on the radar after that.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct. Which is to say Alvin Camaro was exceptionally consistent. This team is on, you know, they have a year or two left with Breeze at prime. And so it begs the question, like, do you buy into Alvin Camara? Like we've talked a lot about, okay. These numbers, especially the average yards per touch, they can't be sustained. But what I saw yesterday, especially against Minnesota, was when push came to shell the Al Kamara was on the field.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's better than Marcus.

[Andy Holloway]

He was more. He's more flexible, more talented.

[Mike Wright]

Touch his toes.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he can touch his toes with his wrist.

[Andy Holloway]

And maybe he's worthy of the same discussion as a Gurley Bell dj. You know, right now, Alvin Camara and Kareem Hunt, who do you draft first in a half point between.

[Mike Wright]

Give me the names again.

[Andy Holloway]

No, just Hunt and Camara.

[Mike Wright]

Oh.

[Jason Moore]

That's going to depend on what Kansas City does at running back.

[Andy Holloway]

At the quarterback position too.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

The interesting thing is, and it's. I mean, you can't really read into.

[Andy Holloway]

It, but let's say you drafted today, Jay.

[Jason Moore]

If I drafted today, I would take Cream Hunt.

[Mike Wright]

How would. What I was going to talk about was Alvin Camara in the playoffs all of a sudden was getting goal line carries. And that's where the biggest difference for him and Mark Ingram was.

[Andy Holloway]

Mark.

[Mike Wright]

Mark Ingram was. Is dominant on the goal line. He has been for years. But if they're all of a sudden going to say, well, let's roll out with Camara at the goal line, that changes things drastically. I mean, he would, yes, he was the number three guy here, but if you're worried about regression, but he turns into the goal line back, that changes things in a big, big way.

[Jason Moore]

I doubt in the regular season they would turn him into the bruising short yardage goal line back. I mean, that's something where he is a smaller guy. So to take that kind of abuse throughout the season, it didn't surprise me that when push came to shove, playoff games, things are on the line. You're not worried about the usage, that they would get him in a little bit more on and near the goal line. But I would be surprised if that happened regular season.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to talk about Kareem Hunt, who is the number four overall running back. Another rookie consistency, rank of number 10. And here's how I break down Kareem Hunt season. It's a marathon, right? And he gets out to a blazing start, finishes as the number one running back, the number four, the number five. In the first three weeks, you're dancing with your fourth round draft pickArem Hunt. Still great game. 17th, 13th, 16th, 10th. Then you get into this. This is the part of the marathon where we'll call it the Andy Reid jumped on his back and slowed him down. Part 25th, 27th, the bye week 28, then 60th, then 38th. So five games, six weeks, you were scratching your head and you were kind of. You were just going, you're putting them.

[Mike Wright]

Out there saying, crap, I should have taken those trade offers for.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, you were. And then you've got the second wind when he shook off Andy Reid and 11, 2, 7. And then week 17, we'll throw that out. What do you make of this season for Cream Hunt? How does he feel compared to the truth? I mean, Jason, is this the time you want to bring up your little.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Your case study.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So this is. He is a perfect candidate here to do a truth episode because he brings. He being Kareem Hunt brings a lot of emotion. If you had Kareem Hunt, you got off to this kind of start that you thought, I'm going to dominate everybody and I'm going to win because I got this fourth round pick that is the best pack in the world. Or you traded for him later, you maybe you held on. And then in those playoff weeks, he had a great playoff stretch. So the view of Kareem Hunt to a lot of people is super high because there were the emotional beginnings and ends that kind of sandwiched together his six bad weeks in a row where you couldn't really use him five games. If you compare that to Melvin Gordon, Melvin Gordon was a disappointment to a lot of people because it cost them more draft capital to acquire. If we're just talking about in the draft and you know, in general, he didn't score as many points as Cream Hunt. But when you actually look at how the year broke down, I posted two polls on Twitter. One poll said, if you don't take draft capital in and it's just a redraft, who did you, who would you have preferred to have on your team this last year, Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon? And it was 60, 40. Kareem Hunt. People wanted Kareem Hunt. Then I posted the consistency metrics here. Basically how many times a player had over 20, had their great game, had their good games busted. And I, and I put the numbers of Melvin Gordon as player B and Kareem Hunt as player A. So just take the names out and what they did, and it was 68 to 32%. People chose they'd rather have the game log of Melvin Gordon when the player name was taken out. Because Melvin Gordon, Melvin Gordon did not even have two games under 10 points back to back the entire year. So you want to talk about a consistent player, he, you know, some of those upside games, he didn't have the 42 point game monstrosity week one that Cream Hunt did. But Melvin Gordon helped his owners a whole heck of a lot. And it's important that while we take a look at the truth, you remember that because it didn't, it didn't necessarily feel that way because of what you paid for in the draft. And you have to separate draft cost with production at this time of year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, and it was super interesting. If you look at the consistency ranking, Elvin Gordon's the fifth player on this list. He finished as the consistency rank of 7 to Kareem Hunt's 10. He was good 81% of the time. Kareem Hunt was good 63% of the time. Similar great games, 19% for Gordon, 25% for Hunt. So an extra game, Gordon busted more 19% to 6% for Kareem Hunt. Both of them struggled a little bit against top tier defenses. Not surprising, especially at the running back position where you see teams, you see players do this at times. Although if you roll back to Camara, he had that problem. Didn't really see that with Gurley. Gurley was actually better against top defenses and Lev Bella was unaffected. But Melvin Gordon, 16 games played, still caught 58 passes. And you know, I don't know if it was because I didn't have shares of him this year like I had last year. I just didn't feel Gordon, he was just there for me. Mike, what was your experience when you look at those two players and are you surprised at those poll results Jason just brought up?

[Mike Wright]

Maybe it's a little surprising when you look at the big difference for Hunt and Gordon is would you rather have a couple fewer bust games or would you rather have a couple fewer games where you're just good, you don't hurt my team. You do help because you're basically a running back too. So it's interesting to see how people view that. The bust versus the good.

[Andy Holloway]

See, he performed that experiment on me and I ended up going with the Melvin Gordon line.

[Mike Wright]

Did you?

[Andy Holloway]

I did. I was willing to take a couple extra weeks where he was a pure bust and sacrifice for the level of play that was more consistent.

[Mike Wright]

Very, very interesting.

[Andy Holloway]

But it really, it is a somewhat depend, you know, subjective to what else is in your team and how do you play. And it's interesting. But four, five.

[Jason Moore]

And to say. So just real quick to speak to the rank here that we have Melvin Gordon as the consistency rank 7. There are two guys who have, I think they're both tied at consistency 3. So they push some of these numbers down. But that was David Johnson because these are, you know, game agnostic.

[Mike Wright]

He was very consistent.

[Jason Moore]

He was very consistent. He had one good game and no bad games. So that one kind of doesn't count. And Dalvin Cook, who was amazing, but unfortunately he left us this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, a lot of players, a lot of players left us this year. They'll be back. They'll be back.

[Jason Moore]

So who would you rather have next year, Cream Hunt or Melvin Gordon?

[Mike Wright]

Man, I'm with you.

[Andy Holloway]

Is a great question.

[Mike Wright]

I'm with you, Jay. I want to see what the Chiefs do.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll take Melvin Corden.

[Mike Wright]

I want to see what the Chiefs do. I lean Kareem Hunt. But.

[Jason Moore]

But is Char west back?

[Mike Wright]

Is Spencer Ware back? Do they draft someone who profiles as a pass catching back?

[Andy Holloway]

What is the impact of Pat Mahomes? Valk Smith is going right. Mark Ingram comes in at number six with a consistency rank of number 12. That is two Saints running backs in the top six performers in fantasy. 230 carries, 1100 yards, 12 touchdowns, 58 receptions for another 416 through the air. Did not score through the air. Bit surprising on that many receptions. Actually 71 targets, caught 58 of them. Proving that he's still a very high efficiency back out of the stud, out of the backfield. 25% great games, 56% good games, only 6% bust games. And he too, like Camara had a little bit of that beginning of the year dealing with Adrian Peterson in the rotation. Look, what can you say? Mark Ingram just plain good and real good at home.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. His interesting thing is he plus six at home, which people read into this differently. Some people like the high home road splits because you know exactly when to play him. Mark Ingram had that a little bit more because he was plus six at home and he was five points better against bottom defenses.

[Jason Moore]

So.

[Mike Wright]

So you get that bottom 16 rush defense at home. Oh, you were good to go. You knew that Markinger was going to have a monster game.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, I like Mark Ingram a lot. I mean, one of the things we have to keep in mind is when we talk consistency, this is all just 2017 consistency. But we've got consistency charts in the ultimate draft kit that look at their career, which I think are extremely helpful. And you could just take a glance and be like, oh yeah, mark Ingram has three years in a row been a top 10 back. And you're not going to have to draft Mark Ingram.

[Mike Wright]

I was just going to say where is Ingram's draft stock?

[Jason Moore]

Ingram is going to be drafted in the second round at the highest.

[Andy Holloway]

Behind Camara.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, absolutely. Behind Camara.

[Andy Holloway]

During the super stretch of the year, that nine game stretch in the middle eight of nine games, Camara was in the top 12. Six of those nine. That Ingram was in the top 12. That's incredible.

[Mike Wright]

So you think second round.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I would just take the. I would probably take the long.

[Jason Moore]

I'm saying, I'm saying at the peak he won't ever be.

[Mike Wright]

Then give me the Jason Moore. This is where marking was going to be drafted.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Jason Moore will draft Mark Ingram.

[Andy Holloway]

At the back of the side where.

[Mike Wright]

You will draft him. Where the people.

[Jason Moore]

I think that the average person will disrespect Mark Ingram and he will go to the third round on average.

[Andy Holloway]

I will take the better value between the two Saints running backs, which would be marking. Yeah, I agree. Camaro will be a first 58, look, 58 receptions. So Camara scored five times through the air on 81 receptions. Ingram scored zero times on 58. And it's not like he doesn't have game Breaking ability. He took a bunch of long runs to the house. It's interesting. LaShawn McCoy finished seventh. Consistency rank on the year was 11th. 287 for 11:38 and 6:59 receptions for 448 and 2 busted 13% good 69% great 25% and very good 6.7 fantasy points better at home than on the road. Fairly large split. You know the truth was when they.

[Mike Wright]

Were at home you were a better team.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they were a better team. They were closer. These games were closer. They could lean on the run McCoy for next year. It's an interesting case because I don't think Tyrod's back but you do have a coach that led him to the playoffs for the first time in a long time and you have a new new oc. New oc.

[Mike Wright]

You're going to have a new quarterback. It's Shady will be are we going.

[Andy Holloway]

To undervalue him or overvalue him next year? That's the question. And I think that we're. I'm going to undervalue him. That's how I worry.

[Mike Wright]

I think that the general consensus for Shady will be an undervaluing of because. And he's also old.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

When you're talking running back years, 64.

[Andy Holloway]

Years old in running back, very old.

[Jason Moore]

In running back years. He's also now going to hit that threshold of carry or touch totals that running backs usually fall away from their you know, look what happened to DeMarco Murray this season there's going to be fear of that and fear of that is going to push Shady down. So next year what's going to happen is really simple. Shady will be a really good value because he's going to go a little bit later than the top backs. If he does not fall away. If he falls away there's. It's going to be like DeMarco. Where would DeMarco Murray needed to have been drafted for you to actually go? Yeah, I was really happy with that pick.

[Mike Wright]

Seventh round.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

You mean well but for every Murray got hurt, every DeMarco case with a split backfield you've got the four year wait for Frank Gore to drop off. And I want to be clear, Lashamacoy did not show any drop off. That's the important thing. Speculation about his age and his carry totals are not the same thing as seeing it on the field like you saw with DeMarco Murray. That's why I think it'll be undervalued. So I think we agree on that.

[Mike Wright]

Leonard Fournette you guys know that. I'm looking over it. Shady has never, never been under 4.0 yards per carry on a season.

[Andy Holloway]

How many?

[Mike Wright]

Never.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Which?

[Andy Holloway]

4.0 yards.

[Jason Moore]

4.0 yards a carry.

[Andy Holloway]

That just sounded funny.

[Mike Wright]

I think it's still accurate.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, it did sound funny.

[Andy Holloway]

Did it? We were both used.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, so how would you say it?

[Andy Holloway]

Four yards per carry.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, but.

[Mike Wright]

But I am getting even more specific.

[Andy Holloway]

You are 4.0.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, but if you want to get even more specific. 4.00. He's never.

[Mike Wright]

Darn you, Jason Moore.

[Andy Holloway]

It's actually 4.00.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, the 4.0, that was actually this year. So it's his lowest yards per carry, but it didn't look like he lost.

[Andy Holloway]

Perfect grade point average, though.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, excellent. Dean's list.

[Andy Holloway]

Fournette was the eighth ranked fantasy running back. Makes sense. Played 13 games. Consistency rank at number five, though.

[Jason Moore]

I was surprised by that.

[Andy Holloway]

Great.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he.

[Andy Holloway]

85% of his games were good. A team that runs the ball. Busted 15%. Great. 15%. Not as many breakout superstar games as some of the leaders, but he sure started the year well.

[Jason Moore]

Now in our ranking system here, he's not penalized for the games that he missed due to injury. And I think when you look at Fournette, you kind of have this feeling similar to Kareem Hunt, where in the middle of the year everything kind of went away because you didn't have him for a couple games when he was injured. And then when he came back, his.

[Mike Wright]

Bye week was also master.

[Jason Moore]

It was right in there. And two of the three games that were his poorest games were right in that stretch. So there was that period where he wasn't good. But when you look at the hole, he was just utilized so much and performed so well. He. He was extremely consistent in all of those games. And the nice thing about the reason why we take out these games that you miss due to injury is no one started them. You know, if you're not going to. If he doesn't play, he's not actually hurting your team. Like a bust game hurts your team. Other than maybe the one week where he was a last second shocking inactive. Maybe. Maybe he would have hurt you there.

[Mike Wright]

Just looking at the dates to explain further into your story, Jay, October 15th was the game before the injury. Then he didn't play again till November 12. So in fantasy football terms, that is also 62 years, right?

[Andy Holloway]

36 receptions. First player on this list with under 53. That was something that you don't get. You don't get that out of Leonard Fournette. And we saw even in the playoff game yesterday, TJ Yeldin is a great role player. He's a great player to come out of the backfield on third down. He did everything yesterday to say, I'm glad you took Leonard Fournette out on third down. I mean, that was what you got. And so there is a game flow dependency situation there with Leonard Fournette. There's also, I mean, I think the lower amount of great games has a lot to do with the fact he doesn't get to dip into both the wide receiver Ben and the running back Ben, I wanted.

[Mike Wright]

You got to talk about it though, Leonard Fournette and these injuries. Yes. When he played, he was great or at least very good for your team. Only played in 13 games. But what did you have? You had three or four foot or ankle injuries for Leonard Fournette. Is this any concern for you, Jason, for a guy who in college, he had similar problems. I mean, talking.

[Andy Holloway]

He had some issues with Melvin Gordon up ahead of him. He had some issues with LaShawn McCoy being a little banged up.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, the issue that is.

[Mike Wright]

Katie, 16 games.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The part that's concerning is what you said. The fact that it's, it happened in college, it's happened for several years running. That does concern you a little bit more. But it's not going to ever push me away from drafting or at the draft cost. Because one of the things you might notice as you're listening, right, we're talking about these top 10 running backs so far and pretty much everyone is at least a top 12 in the consistency, very different than how wide receivers were and how other positions will be. Because at the end of the year, those, and this is what we said in the beginning, those top running backs, they're in a, they're in a world of their own. Once you get past those, you know, 10 or 11 guys, then you're, you're just completely guys that are, you're, you're streaming or you're playing matchups or you're just Centaurs or you're getting a lot of bust games. And Leonard Fournette is one of those guys. I know if he's active, he's getting the ball, he's getting the goal lines, he's going to be a workhorse back. So I'm not going to be scared off because of injury.

[Andy Holloway]

He also, everyone gets injured. He played 13, but he missed one that wasn't due to injury, that was due to suspension. Well, 14 games maybe it was. We need to move on. We're going to get through 10 today and then we're going to get into a bunch of names on the Thursday show like Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Miller and CJ Anderson, Alex Collins. A bunch of names I'm excited to talk about.

[Jason Moore]

Those names will have much more varied rankings in their consistency because you'll see it becomes a crapshoot here.

[Andy Holloway]

But Carlos Hyde and Ezekiel Elliott round out our top 10. Hyde was Carlos ninth ranked fantasy running back, ninth most consistent running back, played 16 games, something that was on his bucket list. 240 carries for 938 yards. Okay, 59 receptions but just 350 yards on those. I think that showed he was maybe not as capable in the receiving game but was a victim of opportunity there. Versus efficiency. I mean 60 carries for 350 yards or 60 receptions for 350 yards and that's not a lot. 87 targets though. You like that. But you've got a new quarterback in town with Jimmy G and a new situation for Carlos Hyde heading into next year. Busted 19% of the time, was good 75% of the time and struggled a bit against good defenses. What do you think of Carlos Hyde heading into next season? What do you think about this past year? What's the truth about him?

[Mike Wright]

Well, first off we need to know where he's going to go.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you happy or sad? Let me ask you that question genuinely before the year, what you thought about Carlos Hyde to now.

[Mike Wright]

Very happy.

[Andy Holloway]

You're happy? Yes.

[Jason Moore]

For sure.

[Mike Wright]

He's the ninth ranked running back and with. Even on consistency. This isn't just oh, he came through sort of. He's top 10 in both.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

I just, and this is a running back who I had to, I mean I had to put up the good fight for this guy.

[Andy Holloway]

So he met your expectations or exceeded them?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, and on a bad team and, but, but moving forward, where is he? He's. That was a contract year. We don't know if he will be back in San Francisco and it's. Honestly, I don't know. I can't even put the odds on it because I've hear, I've talked to.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he came out to say we're winning the super bowl next year. Does that mean he's. He, he gets to stay on the team?

[Mike Wright]

Maybe. But I mean I've talked to fans from San Francisco and they say the rumblings in the bushes are that he won't be back but he's talking about like he will be back automatically. I will say the thing that changed for Carlos Hyde though, the targets.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

When Jimmy GQ and all of his handsome passes came in.

[Andy Holloway]

So handsome.

[Mike Wright]

Those handsome targets were not going to Carlos Hyde with the Jimmy G didn't see.

[Jason Moore]

I hope to check down correct the way the others did before Jimmy Graham took over. Very ugly.

[Mike Wright]

Brian Hoyer.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Before Jimmy Graham took over, Carlos Hyde had 5 games with 5 or more receptions. Not just targets. He had 5 games with 5 or more Receptions. That's part of why Carlos Hyde finished as the number nine running back this year. He had a game with nine a game with seven receptions once Jimmy Graham took over or Jimmy Graham.

[Andy Holloway]

Jimmy Gimmick took over at quarterback once.

[Jason Moore]

Jimmy G took over Jimmy gq.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you say Kenny G?

[Jason Moore]

What? Oh, so handsome.

[Mike Wright]

So smooth and handsome.

[Andy Holloway]

I just, I just didn't know the next time I'd be able to use it.

[Jason Moore]

He never had more than three receptions. So I think that the, you know, there's. But there's pros and cons too because with a better quarterback that means you're going to be in more games scoring opportunity up more. So I think it'll be a wash. But from a consistency perspective, I prefer the running back that is in that pass catching role because if they're up, he gets more opportunity. It's going to be if they're down, he's used in the passing game, there's.

[Andy Holloway]

Going to be some interest. You know, Matt Burrito, watch for dynasty leagues, Joe Williams and then Carlos Hyde where he ends up that a lot has to shake out there in the draft and through free agency. But a very good year. You look at that season, you look at the consistency charts in the, you know, in our jointhefoot.com stat page, it blows your mind because he just really was solid.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. And for where you drafted him, it was fantastic. Yes. I don't, I think Carlos Hyde talent wise, if he was given a role like Shady in an offense, I think he could succeed. I don't know if he would hold up.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know if he would hold up considering this is the first year of the 16 games. I think talent wise he is on par with those elite running backs.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean he's great. He's not.

[Mike Wright]

He is great.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

All right. I would not put his talent as great.

[Andy Holloway]

Certainly he's not the past catching weapon that shady McCoy is. And that's, that's really what it comes down to. To me, just because you catch them doesn't Mean, you're the same type of weapon. What did Ingram. Ingram had 416 yards on those carries. So I. Not way off. But yeah, he played well. I can't argue with that. Zeke rounding out this episode, consistency ranking number four. The message with Zeke is obviously the suspension killed his season, but he was good 90% of the time. He only busted once on the year. What do you make of the very large disparity against great defenses? Or is this just a smaller sample size?

[Mike Wright]

Smaller sample. That's where I lean.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. If you look at his game log, he crushed everyone week to Denver. He had a terrible game. The Cowboys did.

[Andy Holloway]

Outside of that, 2.6 receptions a game though in his games play kind of low from where you'd hope to see Zeke if he is, you know, getting fournette like reception numbers. That's going to be an area where you're looking at Lev Bell, David Johnson, Alvin Camara, and you're more attracted to the potential.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, before the, before the suspension was looming, I mean, he was. It was basically, you know, David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell and Zeke. But Zeke would always be third because exactly what you're saying, he doesn't have that reception. What Zeke has done this year and what the consistency is, being the number four most consistent back says is it just says, hey, don't forget about me. Don't. Don't forget about how good Zeke was his rookie year and how good he was this year just because he missed so many games.

[Andy Holloway]

Zeke or Fournette?

[Jason Moore]

Next year I'll take Zeke. Without a doubt, I will take Zeke.

[Mike Wright]

I think Zeke's a better running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Zeke or Kamara?

[Jason Moore]

Zeke.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, probably Zeke. I mean, the game log for Zeke, the game where he busted against Denver, nine attempts for eight yards. I mean, absolute total crap fest. But other than that game, he had at least 20 plus carries in every other game.

[Andy Holloway]

They struggled though, as an offense this year.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And would you say it's. Is it fair to say if it's Lev, Lev, dj Zeke were the top tier this past year. Do you graduate, Gurley? Do you graduate?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Camara?

[Mike Wright]

No, I have him.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you graduate, Hunt?

[Jason Moore]

No, I graduated to another tier.

[Andy Holloway]

But those rookies. I don't move rookies into that after one solid year. Probably.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think that they are. They're. Camara and Hunt will be in that tier that Shady was in this season. Speaking of the draft, you still really, really wanted him on your team. But if you had a top three pick, you weren't grabbing Shady tons of.

[Andy Holloway]

Other names we're going to be bringing up on the Thursday show like jay Ajayi, like DeMarco Murray and Jerry McKinnon, Alex Collins, Lamar Miller, Dion Lewis, who had another great game yesterday. Talk through a ton more truth on the Thursday episode.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's going to be a good time. Hey, don't forget, support for today's show comes from Ctrl gx, the first shampoo that gradually reduces gray from just four men. Just use Ctrl GX as you would your normal shampoo until you like what you see. Subtle natural looking results. You can get 25% off CTRL GX using the code footballers at CTRL GX. That's footballers to get 25% off control gx@control gx.com look forward to a smart look.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, look at this.

[Andy Holloway]

And don't forget you can play some DFS with us. Best Ball Play best ball already draft.com ballers See ya.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter @The FF Ballers.