Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2017, Part 2"

Release Date: January 18, 2018

In this insightful episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright continue their deep dive into the world of fantasy football running backs (RBs). Building upon their initial analysis, this second part focuses on dissecting the consistency and performance of RBs from the 2017 NFL season, providing listeners with valuable insights to strategize for the upcoming fantasy football year.

Introduction and Overview

The episode kicks off with the hosts engaging in their characteristic banter, briefly touching upon personal anecdotes and lighter topics before seamlessly transitioning into the core discussion. The primary focus remains steadfast on evaluating the top RBs based on their consistency, an essential factor for fantasy football success.

Methodology for Ranking Running Backs

The hosts outline their unique methodology for assessing RBs, emphasizing consistency as a pivotal metric. They categorize performances into three tiers:

• Great Games: Scoring 22 or more fantasy points, placing them in the top five for any given week.
• Good Games: Accumulating over 10 fantasy points, ranking them within the top 24.
• Busts: Delivering fewer than seven fantasy points, ranking outside the top 50.

Andy Holloway elucidates this system:
"When we talk about consistency at the running back position, we talk in terms of great games... average and bust games that are fewer than seven points outside of the top 50 on average." (14:57)

This framework allows for a nuanced evaluation beyond mere total yardage or touchdown counts, providing a clearer picture of a player's reliability week-to-week.

Detailed Analysis of Running Backs

The heart of the episode lies in the comprehensive analysis of individual RBs, assessing their past performance and projecting future consistency.

1. Christian McCaffrey

• Rank: 11th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 23rd

• Performance Highlights:

  • Receptions: 80
  • Receiving Yards: 651
  • Touchdowns: 5

• Analysis: McCaffrey demonstrated his versatility with significant involvement in the passing game. However, his 25% bust rate indicates occasional unpredictability.

  Mike Wright remarks:
  "McCaffrey has unbelievable hands... sometimes those numbers are skewed because they got to a slow start or they were dealing with injury." (18:25)

2. Jordan Howard

• Rank: 12th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 25th

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 276
  • Rushing Yards: 1,122
  • Touchdowns: 9

• Analysis: Howard's lack of involvement in the passing game contributed to his lower consistency ranking. Despite solid rushing numbers, his role limitations surfaced during critical game moments.

  Jason Moore questions:
  "Do you feel more confident? Let's say you had a dynasty, half-point PPR league and you had to decide whether to keep Jordan Howard or Christian McCaffrey on that team heading into next year. Where do you go?" (20:29)

3. Devonta Freeman

• Rank: 13th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 14th

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 196
  • Rushing Yards: 860
  • Touchdowns: 7
  • Receptions: 36
  • Receiving Yards: 317
  • Touchdowns: 1

• Analysis: Freeman's performance was hampered by injuries and Atlanta's offensive regression. His negative 7.6 fantasy points against top defenses underscore his vulnerability in high-stakes matchups.

  Andy Holloway observes:
  "He played 14 games this year under 200 carries with 196 and 860 yards. It was just kind of a down year in proportion to what happened to Atlanta." (24:47)

4. Deion Lewis

• Rank: 14th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 23rd

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 180
  • Rushing Yards: 896
  • Touchdowns: 6
  • Receptions: 32
  • Receiving Yards: 214
  • Touchdowns: 3

• Analysis: Lewis showcased consistency but lacked the explosive potential seen in higher-ranked RBs. His future remains uncertain, hinging on team dynamics and health.

  Andy Holloway notes:
  "Deion Lewis was 100. He had 180 carries for 896 yards and six touchdowns, 32 receptions for 214 and three." (27:35)

5. Lamar Miller

• Rank: 15th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 21st

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 238
  • Rushing Yards: 1,160
  • Touchdowns: 6
  • Receptions: 36
  • Receiving Yards: 239
  • Touchdowns: 0

• Analysis: Miller's performance was split due to the presence of Deshaun Watson, leading to decreased utilization and lower consistency.

  Andy Holloway comments:
  "He is at the bottom of the league for yards after contact again." (35:52)

6. C.J. Anderson

• Rank: 17th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 31st

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 64
  • Rushing Yards: 294
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Receptions: 239
  • Receiving Yards: 4

• Analysis: Anderson's inconsistency plagued his fantasy value, with a 44% bust rate making him a high-risk pick despite flashes of brilliance.

  Mike Wright exclaims:
  "DeMarco Murray was not good. He was great last year." (52:25)

7. Alex Collins

• Rank: 18th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 26th

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 212
  • Rushing Yards: 693
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Receptions: 23
  • Receiving Yards: 93
  • Touchdowns: 0

• Analysis: Collins emerged as a late-season contributor after being activated from waivers. His potential is promising but remains contingent on Baltimore's offensive strategy and quarterback performance.

  Andy Holloway states:
  "Alex Collins, you have a lot of questions over his head." (38:27)

8. Tevin Coleman

• Rank: 21st Overall

• Consistency Rank: 18th

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 156
  • Rushing Yards: 673
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Receptions: 27
  • Receiving Yards: 108
  • Touchdowns: 0

• Analysis: Coleman's role as a secondary back in Atlanta's committee approach limited his fantasy reliability, though his versatility offers some upside for savvy managers.

  Jason Moore reflects:
  "He's going to be a free agent in 2019. That's going to be his payday." (47:50)

9. DeMarco Murray

• Rank: 23rd Overall

• Consistency Rank: 22nd

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 105
  • Rushing Yards: 595
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Receptions: 64
  • Receiving Yards: 239
  • Touchdowns: 0

• Analysis: Murray's decline due to team dynamics and injuries painted him as a less attractive fantasy option. His future prospects with the Titans remain bleak.

  Andy Holloway emphasizes:
  "DeMarco Murray is not on the cusp of retirement. He's going to find a team in a heartbeat." (55:09)

10. Additional Running Backs

The hosts briefly touch upon other RBs such as Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Marshawn Lynch, and Chris Thompson, analyzing their performances, consistency issues, and future potential within their respective teams. Each player's unique circumstances, including injuries, team changes, and offensive strategies, are scrutinized to gauge their fantasy viability.

Insights and Strategic Recommendations

Throughout the discussion, the hosts offer strategic advice for fantasy managers:

• Drafting Strategy: Emphasis on prioritizing RBs with higher consistency ranks to minimize bust weeks.
  Andy Holloway advises:
  "Pros sooner. And that would be McCaffrey." (21:05)

• Rule Changes: The conversation shifts briefly to proposing league rule changes, highlighting the importance of timing such proposals to mitigate emotional biases from previous seasons.
  Jason Moore suggests:
  "Now is the time to start the process." (06:07)

• Youth Movement: A notable trend is the influx of younger RBs dominating the top rankings, with the average age of RB1s being remarkably young at 24 years old. This underscores the need for managers to target emerging talents.
  Andy Holloway states:
  "The average age of the top 12 running backs... is 24 years old." (41:24)

• Injury Considerations: The hosts caution against overvaluing RBs with significant injury histories or uncertain team roles, encouraging managers to weigh potential upside against inherent risks.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway [02:00]:
  "And we have a truth episode, part two of the running back truth episode. We broke down the top 10 running backs..."

• Mike Wright [16:35]:
  "McCaffrey was not as consistent as the other top guys... he was not as consistent with giving you weeks where he's not hurting your roster."

• Jason Moore [20:29]:
  "You had to decide whether to keep Jordan Howard or Christian McCaffrey on that team heading into next year. Where do you go?"

• Andy Holloway [24:45]:
  "Devonta Freeman... still very good. And you know, it came out after the playoffs that he has been dealing with."

• Mike Wright [27:35]:
  "Deion Lewis... I think they're going to give him every opportunity to be that guy."

• Jason Moore [30:32]:
  "You would plug him in, you'd feel okay about this. But just never a great game... unfortunate."

• Andy Holloway [35:52]:
  "He is at the bottom of the league for yards after contact again."

• Mike Wright [41:24]:
  "The average age of the top 12 running backs, the whole RB1 group, is 24 years old."

• Jason Moore [47:50]:
  "He's going to be a free agent in 2019. That's going to be his payday."

Conclusion

This episode offers a thorough examination of the 2017 running back landscape, emphasizing the critical role of consistency in fantasy football success. By dissecting individual performances, team dynamics, and future projections, the Fantasy Footballers provide listeners with a robust framework to make informed decisions. Whether you're a seasoned manager or a newcomer, the insights shared in this episode are invaluable for navigating the complexities of fantasy football RB selections.

Listeners are encouraged to engage with the podcast across various platforms, including Twitter (@TheFFBallers), their official website (fantasyfootballers.com), and social media channels, ensuring year-round access to expert analysis and advice.

Timestamp Reference Guide:

• [00:57] Methodology Explanation
• [14:57] Andy Holloway on Consistency
• [16:35] Mike Wright on McCaffrey
• [18:25] Mike Wright on McCaffrey's Hands
• [19:43] Andy Holloway on Jordan Howard
• [20:29] Jason Moore on RB Decision
• [24:47] Andy Holloway on Devonta Freeman
• [27:35] Mike Wright on Deion Lewis
• [35:52] Andy Holloway on Lamar Miller
• [38:27] Andy Holloway on Alex Collins
• [41:24] Mike Wright on Youth Movement
• [47:50] Jason Moore on Tevin Coleman
• [52:25] Mike Wright on C.J. Anderson
• [55:09] Andy Holloway on DeMarco Murray

Note: The timestamps correspond to the moments in the transcript where specific topics or quotes are discussed, providing a quick reference for listeners seeking to revisit particular segments.