Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2017, Part 2

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2017, Part 2"

Release Date: January 18, 2018

In this insightful episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright continue their deep dive into the world of fantasy football running backs (RBs). Building upon their initial analysis, this second part focuses on dissecting the consistency and performance of RBs from the 2017 NFL season, providing listeners with valuable insights to strategize for the upcoming fantasy football year.

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Introduction and Overview

The episode kicks off with the hosts engaging in their characteristic banter, briefly touching upon personal anecdotes and lighter topics before seamlessly transitioning into the core discussion. The primary focus remains steadfast on evaluating the top RBs based on their consistency, an essential factor for fantasy football success.

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Methodology for Ranking Running Backs

The hosts outline their unique methodology for assessing RBs, emphasizing consistency as a pivotal metric. They categorize performances into three tiers:

• Great Games: Scoring 22 or more fantasy points, placing them in the top five for any given week.
• Good Games: Accumulating over 10 fantasy points, ranking them within the top 24.
• Busts: Delivering fewer than seven fantasy points, ranking outside the top 50.

Andy Holloway elucidates this system:
"When we talk about consistency at the running back position, we talk in terms of great games... average and bust games that are fewer than seven points outside of the top 50 on average." (14:57)

This framework allows for a nuanced evaluation beyond mere total yardage or touchdown counts, providing a clearer picture of a player's reliability week-to-week.

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Detailed Analysis of Running Backs

The heart of the episode lies in the comprehensive analysis of individual RBs, assessing their past performance and projecting future consistency.

1. Christian McCaffrey

• Rank: 11th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 23rd

• Performance Highlights:

  • Receptions: 80
  • Receiving Yards: 651
  • Touchdowns: 5

• Analysis: McCaffrey demonstrated his versatility with significant involvement in the passing game. However, his 25% bust rate indicates occasional unpredictability.

  Mike Wright remarks:
  "McCaffrey has unbelievable hands... sometimes those numbers are skewed because they got to a slow start or they were dealing with injury." (18:25)

2. Jordan Howard

• Rank: 12th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 25th

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 276
  • Rushing Yards: 1,122
  • Touchdowns: 9

• Analysis: Howard's lack of involvement in the passing game contributed to his lower consistency ranking. Despite solid rushing numbers, his role limitations surfaced during critical game moments.

  Jason Moore questions:
  "Do you feel more confident? Let's say you had a dynasty, half-point PPR league and you had to decide whether to keep Jordan Howard or Christian McCaffrey on that team heading into next year. Where do you go?" (20:29)

3. Devonta Freeman

• Rank: 13th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 14th

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 196
  • Rushing Yards: 860
  • Touchdowns: 7
  • Receptions: 36
  • Receiving Yards: 317
  • Touchdowns: 1

• Analysis: Freeman's performance was hampered by injuries and Atlanta's offensive regression. His negative 7.6 fantasy points against top defenses underscore his vulnerability in high-stakes matchups.

  Andy Holloway observes:
  "He played 14 games this year under 200 carries with 196 and 860 yards. It was just kind of a down year in proportion to what happened to Atlanta." (24:47)

4. Deion Lewis

• Rank: 14th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 23rd

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 180
  • Rushing Yards: 896
  • Touchdowns: 6
  • Receptions: 32
  • Receiving Yards: 214
  • Touchdowns: 3

• Analysis: Lewis showcased consistency but lacked the explosive potential seen in higher-ranked RBs. His future remains uncertain, hinging on team dynamics and health.

  Andy Holloway notes:
  "Deion Lewis was 100. He had 180 carries for 896 yards and six touchdowns, 32 receptions for 214 and three." (27:35)

5. Lamar Miller

• Rank: 15th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 21st

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 238
  • Rushing Yards: 1,160
  • Touchdowns: 6
  • Receptions: 36
  • Receiving Yards: 239
  • Touchdowns: 0

• Analysis: Miller's performance was split due to the presence of Deshaun Watson, leading to decreased utilization and lower consistency.

  Andy Holloway comments:
  "He is at the bottom of the league for yards after contact again." (35:52)

6. C.J. Anderson

• Rank: 17th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 31st

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 64
  • Rushing Yards: 294
  • Touchdowns: 4
  • Receptions: 239
  • Receiving Yards: 4

• Analysis: Anderson's inconsistency plagued his fantasy value, with a 44% bust rate making him a high-risk pick despite flashes of brilliance.

  Mike Wright exclaims:
  "DeMarco Murray was not good. He was great last year." (52:25)

7. Alex Collins

• Rank: 18th Overall

• Consistency Rank: 26th

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 212
  • Rushing Yards: 693
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Receptions: 23
  • Receiving Yards: 93
  • Touchdowns: 0

• Analysis: Collins emerged as a late-season contributor after being activated from waivers. His potential is promising but remains contingent on Baltimore's offensive strategy and quarterback performance.

  Andy Holloway states:
  "Alex Collins, you have a lot of questions over his head." (38:27)

8. Tevin Coleman

• Rank: 21st Overall

• Consistency Rank: 18th

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 156
  • Rushing Yards: 673
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Receptions: 27
  • Receiving Yards: 108
  • Touchdowns: 0

• Analysis: Coleman's role as a secondary back in Atlanta's committee approach limited his fantasy reliability, though his versatility offers some upside for savvy managers.

  Jason Moore reflects:
  "He's going to be a free agent in 2019. That's going to be his payday." (47:50)

9. DeMarco Murray

• Rank: 23rd Overall

• Consistency Rank: 22nd

• Performance Highlights:

  • Rushing Attempts: 105
  • Rushing Yards: 595
  • Touchdowns: 3
  • Receptions: 64
  • Receiving Yards: 239
  • Touchdowns: 0

• Analysis: Murray's decline due to team dynamics and injuries painted him as a less attractive fantasy option. His future prospects with the Titans remain bleak.

  Andy Holloway emphasizes:
  "DeMarco Murray is not on the cusp of retirement. He's going to find a team in a heartbeat." (55:09)

10. Additional Running Backs

The hosts briefly touch upon other RBs such as Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Marshawn Lynch, and Chris Thompson, analyzing their performances, consistency issues, and future potential within their respective teams. Each player's unique circumstances, including injuries, team changes, and offensive strategies, are scrutinized to gauge their fantasy viability.

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Insights and Strategic Recommendations

Throughout the discussion, the hosts offer strategic advice for fantasy managers:

• Drafting Strategy: Emphasis on prioritizing RBs with higher consistency ranks to minimize bust weeks.
  Andy Holloway advises:
  "Pros sooner. And that would be McCaffrey." (21:05)

• Rule Changes: The conversation shifts briefly to proposing league rule changes, highlighting the importance of timing such proposals to mitigate emotional biases from previous seasons.
  Jason Moore suggests:
  "Now is the time to start the process." (06:07)

• Youth Movement: A notable trend is the influx of younger RBs dominating the top rankings, with the average age of RB1s being remarkably young at 24 years old. This underscores the need for managers to target emerging talents.
  Andy Holloway states:
  "The average age of the top 12 running backs... is 24 years old." (41:24)

• Injury Considerations: The hosts caution against overvaluing RBs with significant injury histories or uncertain team roles, encouraging managers to weigh potential upside against inherent risks.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway [02:00]:
  "And we have a truth episode, part two of the running back truth episode. We broke down the top 10 running backs..."

• Mike Wright [16:35]:
  "McCaffrey was not as consistent as the other top guys... he was not as consistent with giving you weeks where he's not hurting your roster."

• Jason Moore [20:29]:
  "You had to decide whether to keep Jordan Howard or Christian McCaffrey on that team heading into next year. Where do you go?"

• Andy Holloway [24:45]:
  "Devonta Freeman... still very good. And you know, it came out after the playoffs that he has been dealing with."

• Mike Wright [27:35]:
  "Deion Lewis... I think they're going to give him every opportunity to be that guy."

• Jason Moore [30:32]:
  "You would plug him in, you'd feel okay about this. But just never a great game... unfortunate."

• Andy Holloway [35:52]:
  "He is at the bottom of the league for yards after contact again."

• Mike Wright [41:24]:
  "The average age of the top 12 running backs, the whole RB1 group, is 24 years old."

• Jason Moore [47:50]:
  "He's going to be a free agent in 2019. That's going to be his payday."

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Conclusion

This episode offers a thorough examination of the 2017 running back landscape, emphasizing the critical role of consistency in fantasy football success. By dissecting individual performances, team dynamics, and future projections, the Fantasy Footballers provide listeners with a robust framework to make informed decisions. Whether you're a seasoned manager or a newcomer, the insights shared in this episode are invaluable for navigating the complexities of fantasy football RB selections.

Listeners are encouraged to engage with the podcast across various platforms, including Twitter (@TheFFBallers), their official website (fantasyfootballers.com), and social media channels, ensuring year-round access to expert analysis and advice.

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Timestamp Reference Guide:

• [00:57] Methodology Explanation
• [14:57] Andy Holloway on Consistency
• [16:35] Mike Wright on McCaffrey
• [18:25] Mike Wright on McCaffrey's Hands
• [19:43] Andy Holloway on Jordan Howard
• [20:29] Jason Moore on RB Decision
• [24:47] Andy Holloway on Devonta Freeman
• [27:35] Mike Wright on Deion Lewis
• [35:52] Andy Holloway on Lamar Miller
• [38:27] Andy Holloway on Alex Collins
• [41:24] Mike Wright on Youth Movement
• [47:50] Jason Moore on Tevin Coleman
• [52:25] Mike Wright on C.J. Anderson
• [55:09] Andy Holloway on DeMarco Murray

Note: The timestamps correspond to the moments in the transcript where specific topics or quotes are discussed, providing a quick reference for listeners seeking to revisit particular segments.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, guys. You got big plans for the new year?

[Jason Moore]

Of course. Huge.

[Andy Holloway]

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[Mike Wright]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, coming to you from the Play Draft Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in. Any of you gentlemen. Know where I can find some narcotics?

[Jason Moore]

For those of you out there in the interwebs and especially YouTube, because. And during the off season, our shows on YouTube, they're up at like 3am and people are loving it. Today's show is coming up a little bit later because our fearless leader, Andy has.

[Andy Holloway]

I hear he was restless and can't get up.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, see, I was gonna go like you were. You had to do battle with.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you were gonna give me credit for.

[Mike Wright]

How did you not go wrestling with a bear? It was like Jay Grizz wanted in on the show, is trying to take Andy down.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I threw my neck out pretty good yesterday for no reason other than the fact that I'm in my middle 30 range and inactive. Other than that. I mean, I would love to say I wrestled a bear, but it was. It was. I heard it while Netflixing. So very similar.

[Mike Wright]

Tell me that's the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

Pretty close.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, good.

[Andy Holloway]

But I was like, it's the same as.

[Jason Moore]

I woke up like this. Well, how'd you heard it? Sleeping.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I slept wrong.

[Mike Wright]

It stinks, man. It's no good. You can't. Does it hurt you to look at me? Not just because of my.

[Andy Holloway]

Most of the time, it doesn't. Today, a little more than normal. I did one of those Batman.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Good thing you're in a swivel chair.

[Andy Holloway]

There was a decent part of two days ago where I. I manually lifted my head at all times. Like I couldn't lift my own head manually. Well, I just meant, like, with my hands, not manually. Yeah, automatically. I did one of those video doctors. Have you. Have you seen these glorious. Instead of going into, like, the emergency room or urgent care, I knew that all they do is probably prescribe like an anti inflammatory and a muscle relaxer. So I get on there and this very kind 65 year old doctor that's on the video, doctor on demand thing, she just, you know, she wouldn't accept the fact that this happened without me doing something very, you know, physical. Was I hiking, was I playing sports? No. Nope. No, I just rolled over. So. But I'm here for now. I'm here for now. And we have a truth episode, part two of the running back truth episode. We broke down the top 10 running backs. Their consistency, their performances over the year. You know, breaking down the truth so that you understand a player is more than the emotion you feel as he was owned during the season. I mean you have players like Kareem Hunt that started the year on fire. You have players that rookies, you know, Alvin Camara who started without a role, established a role consistency levels. Jason mentioned it on the show on Tuesday. You know, these are injury. Injury is not factored into this consistency that we give you. We give basically if you start a guy, what did you get right?

[Mike Wright]

Dalvin Cook rocks in these rankings because when he was playing he was great. It only goes by games played. So David Johnson is pretty good. Which obviously those are, you know, outliers. We're going in the order of their actual fantasy finish. So the people we've talked about last episode that was basically the top, what did we get through the top 10? 12. And from here on out we're going to go down from 11 through 24. As to how people finished. This is actually where it gets much more interesting to me because those top 10 running backs were basically almost the top 10 most consistent and that makes sense because of the position. But now you're going to start to see if you don't get one of those stud running backs looking forward to next year, what kind of backs are more consistent and less consistent kind of break through some of the narratives that we can fall victim to. And like Andy said, take the emotion of how you feel about a player.

[Jason Moore]

The final finish of a player, as you're going to find out with, with number 11 and 12, because there is a wide gap between their finish and how consistent they actually were for your team.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we'll get into that momentarily. You can find us on Twitter at the ffballers, the website's the fantasy footballers.com or on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, everywhere you can find us. We're year round. We never leave.

[Jason Moore]

Mm.

[Andy Holloway]

Except for like yesterday when I left for a little while.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Technically, you didn't leave.

[Andy Holloway]

True.

[Jason Moore]

Because you never showed up.

[Andy Holloway]

There you go. Here's the quick question of the day. Is now the time to propose rule changes for your fantasy football league?

[Mike Wright]

Now is the time to start the process.

[Jason Moore]

This is where you're planting your seeds exactly right. Mustard seed.

[Mike Wright]

You're going to, you know, look, if you. If it's something you think everybody's going to agree to propose anytime, you know, even middle of the season, say, hey, next year, you guys want to change this? And people say, yes, if it's something that's the opposite and, you know, nobody wants to change to fab because they're all dummies, then you start with one or two people. You don't go and propose it to everybody.

[Jason Moore]

You go, hey, Mike, you turn into a lobbyist.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's exactly right. You turn into a lobbyist, and you go to whoever's closest in the league. You get them on your side. Then you go to your second closest. You start, you know, testing the water. Now's the time to start that process.

[Andy Holloway]

A lot of people need a little break, so if it's not something that directly impacted the end of your season, I think you can start to, like you said, plant the seed. But really make that more of an issue when you get closer to draft season to vote on that and to formalize it before the season begins. If it's something like week 17, championship games, that memory of the torture that that is is fresh on your mind. So now is the time to say we can never let this happen again and begin to make changes for your league. Yeah, to heal, make changes, whatever it is.

[Mike Wright]

Also shout out to the Foot Clan out there because we have had more this year than ever. I can remember people saying, our league has chose to switch. I did it again.

[Andy Holloway]

I chose to sat him.

[Mike Wright]

Chose to sat him. Our league is changing next year from week 17 to week 16. Good for you people out there.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Yes. Good. You four, good.

[Mike Wright]

You four. News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks is back. How you doing, Brooks?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, great.

[Andy Holloway]

How was what? Michigan.

[Jason Moore]

It was cold.

[Andy Holloway]

Cold. You like it here in Arizona?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I belong here in the heat.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm still. I've still never seen snow. I can't wait. I can't wait till the day that. That it happens.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, is this true? That can be true.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I've seen.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, I went back east once.

[Jason Moore]

No, but legit. I mean, I. I had not experienced snow until probably my. The middle. You know, like my middle teenage years. That's how long was and never had been in snow. And then when you do it, you're like, this is. It's magic.

[Mike Wright]

You should see Brooks when he got out here this past January, he experienced sunshine. He said, what is this great ball.

[Andy Holloway]

Of fire in the sky?

[Mike Wright]

Michigan has a special gray sky that's there most of the entire world.

[Andy Holloway]

Leonard Fournette, running back for the Jags, involved in a minor car accident when his car was rear ended. He is okay. He drove home. It's not really much of a story.

[Jason Moore]

Cannot confirm nor deny that Bill Belichick.

[Andy Holloway]

Was in the other vehicle.

[Jason Moore]

Had anything to do with this.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, maybe it was to make it fair. I mean, Tom Brady apparently jammed his throwing hand at practice after being accidentally run into. X rays showed no structural damage. It's still.

[Mike Wright]

This one scares me. Yeah, it should be a concern.

[Andy Holloway]

Throwing hand.

[Mike Wright]

It's your throwing hand. He was not present for, you know, the media, you know, moments, the interviews. He was off with the medical staff. That's concerning. I mean, it's great news that nothing is broken and that the X rays came. But when you have to get X rays, like something happened.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they do that. I think they do that pretty, pretty quick.

[Mike Wright]

But. Sure. But my point is there was a painful injury. That said there's a chance of a bigger problem here and they went and X rayed it. Now you're playing against Jacksonville. You know, if you're a dfs, Tom Brady's usually the golden ticket. He was last week. I don't know. He scares me this week.

[Jason Moore]

Interesting.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah, he's Tom Brady.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Adam Thielen's dealing with a lower back injury. Didn't practice. Malcolm Mitchell's not coming back this year. Drew Brees says he does not plan to test the market. Hopes to resign with the Saints. They're a good, young, up and coming team. He wants to see what they can do. Jarvis Landry, this is interesting. He will not accept a hometown discount for the Dolphins. He has one opportunity to make his money, so to speak, and he's looking for a contract in the range of that big, big one that Devonte Adams just signed with the packers, which is four years, $58 million with 18 million guaranteed based on this information. Does it push you more or less to the side of, you know, Jarvis is going to leave Miami and how does that look for Devonte Parker in Dynasty leagues or Kenny Stills?

[Mike Wright]

It pushes me more to the side that he's going to leave because I have been, prior to this, have been assuming he was going to stay. But if he's looking for the one huge contract, that's usually where, look, if you test 32 teams, you know, versus one, you're going to find a team that's willing to pay up to steal you away. It's difficult in the NFL with some of the rules to be able to actually, you know, go sign elsewhere and with, you know, draft picks and things like that that can be paid out. So I think he leaves. But if he gets paid like this, he's going to be the same Jarvis next year. This team or another team. His. I don't think his style of play requires Ryan Tannehill or Jay Cutler to be successful. So if I'm in a dynasty league and someone's afraid of the contract situation, I'd go buy him. Or if you have him, I would keep.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And just to say it, I probably don't agree. I think he'll be a good player somewhere else, but I don't think you can pencil him in for 100 plus catches if he changes teams. So, you know, you're gonna have to make your own judgment call there.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I guess.

[Andy Holloway]

Wide receiver, free agency. Wide receivers that move in free agency. I pause. I hit the pause button. Regardless, I love Jarvis Landry, think he's an amazing player, but he is dependent to me on 110 catches to be that player. If he goes somewhere and catches 90 balls, he's not going to be a disappointment for that team. But he will be for fantasy in my opinion.

[Jason Moore]

So my just thinking through the teams right now, my, my sleeper pick is going to be the Oakland Raiders.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh. With Crabtree possibly out the door.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Interesting.

[Jason Moore]

They need a, they will need a possession guy.

[Andy Holloway]

That's fair.

[Jason Moore]

They're not afraid to spend money.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey guys, if you finish the league second, third, seventh and third in total offense per game, you don't come back. Todd Haley, offensive coordinator for the Steelers, will not be brought back. We have heard a lot about Haley and the Steelers. I've been saying, look, they kind of get in their own way right now. I mean they have so much talent on that team. But with Martavis coming back and then demanding the ball and then saying he's going to leave and then some of the off the field stuff with other players. It just seems like there's a little more controversy there than other franchises that are trying to win. And now Todd Haley, your established offense coordinator, is leaving. What do you guys make of this?

[Jason Moore]

Well, for, for the fact that he's leaving. Not overly surprising. Todd Haley, long Long has a reputation of being.

[Andy Holloway]

He wears people down.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Tough to work.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, it's tough to work with. This is a Jim Harbaugh situation. Look how successful the 49ers were with Jim Harbaugh.

[Mike Wright]

But good coach, tough man.

[Jason Moore]

Conflict of interest or personalities between people in the upper management.

[Mike Wright]

They had to.

[Jason Moore]

Harbaugh had to leave. So this is the similar thing.

[Mike Wright]

That's the nice thing for Phoenix.

[Jason Moore]

He will get a job really quick, though.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely he will. As he should. The nice thing, though, for the Steelers is it appears so far that the quarterback coach is most likely to take over that offensive coordinator role. I love that because you have a team here who's been consistent. You just read the numbers. You know, there was second, third, seventh and third the last four years in offense. So I want consistency here. This is what I was hoping that the Atlanta Falcons would do last year when they lost Shanahan, was take their quarterback coach, promote him. Keep that train chugging along.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, reminder, playoff challenge. Make your changes to your lineup.

[Jason Moore]

Rip my team.

[Mike Wright]

I like what you guys have done. You guys were like, okay, the teams you had chosen to seven Saints. Yeah, exactly. And so now that you're like, okay, I'm out of it. The only way you can win is to go the exact least likely thing possible.

[Andy Holloway]

What are your lowest ownership percentage players on the teams not expected to win the game? I'm all on Jags, Jags and Eagles. I've got them up and down. Yeah, that's the Super Bowl. I'm expecting Bortles V. Full.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, he plays in the game.

[Jason Moore]

Give it to me.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, without. I don't think we have any other news we need to get into. So let's talk running backs.

[Mike Wright]

You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers? I want the truth. You can't handle the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

Just a reminder. When we talk consistency at the running back position, we talk in terms of great games. That's when a player scores 22 or more points. That's a top five on average performance for that week. Good games, which are more than 10 points, that's a top 24. Average and bust games that are fewer than seven points outside of the top 50 on average. That's how we define a good, great or bust game. And then that factors into what we think their consistency ended up as. So last Tuesday, this past Tuesday, we talked through Todd Gurley, Lev Bell, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, LaShawn McCoy, Leonard Fernet, Carlos Hyde and Ezekiel Elliott. And today we're going to go as far as we can into the rest of the running back position. I think we should try to, you know, get deep in the running back position because there, there's a lot of interesting information here from a consistency standpoint right off the bat, you start with Christian McCaffrey. Christian McCaffrey was the 11th ranked running back in fantasy, but his consistency rank was 23rd in the league. He busted 25% of the time. So seven or fewer points 25% of the time. This is another rookie, right. And as with Camara and Hunt and others of that nature, you do have this establishing a role, finding a, you know, there was a trade of Kelvin Benjamin, some things in the offense. Take the what's your read on Christian McCaffrey from this past year and moving into next year? 80 receptions, 651 yards and five touchdowns. That's where he made his money.

[Mike Wright]

It'll be interesting to see, you know, North Turner coming in. Maybe they can get him a little bit more involved. It's a new coordinator coming to a team that now already has this asset in McCaffrey, so I think they can scheme for him a little bit better. But what happened this last year and unlike some of these consistency numbers where, okay, he wasn't as consistent as the other top guys. Sometimes those numbers are skewed because they got to a slow start or they were dealing with injury in the middle or, you know, at the end of the year they, you know, the team was sitting guys or whatever. But this wasn't the case with, with McCaffrey. McCaffrey had, you know, a bad week two, a bad week four, a bad week 14, a bad week 16. It was kind of spread out where it made it a little bit hard to trust him. And here's what I find fascinating. We're going to talk next about Jordan Howard. Jordan Howard makes sense to me because he doesn't catch the ball. He can be game scripted out where his games aren't that great. But McCaffrey being a pass catching running back, it was really surprising to me to see that he was not as consistent with giving you weeks where he's not hurting your roster as some of the other top backs.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's fair. I mean, he was somebody that it seemed like every time he gave you a good performance and you wanted to count on him, he would let you down a little bit. He'd be game scripted out for some reason going into next year. You know, Jonathan Stewart just kind of hangs around. Obviously McCaffrey can't be the feature between the.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he won't be a three down guy. And even if Jonathan Stewart is forced into retirement or cut from the team, I think that the Panthers will draft a Jonathan Stewart type. They'll get a bruiser. Maybe they bring back Cameron Artist Payne who had some success.

[Mike Wright]

Go ahead. I just want to point this out because we have this awesome, awesome article series the 25 Stats article on our website and we just released the 25 stats. These are just like mind cool stat nuggets. And we just released Michael Winrich put out the one on running backs and he found this one on McCaffrey. He says, Remember the preseason narrative that the Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton doesn't know how to throw to a running back. It may actually.

[Andy Holloway]

I remember you guys talking about that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Well, he says it may actually be Semi accurate because McCaffrey led all running backs with 113 targets, although he was only able to catch 71% of them, which is the fourth lowest catch rate among the top 30 most targeted running backs. And obviously McCaffrey has unbelievable hands.

[Jason Moore]

Great hands. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So this, I mean it's like if you had a quarterback that could put a little touch on a short start. So you need.

[Andy Holloway]

They needed to do it. But he isn't great at it.

[Mike Wright]

Cam.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Cam being, you know, so interesting. Jordan Howard comes in at number 12 with a consistency rank of 25. Jason just mentioned it. Doesn't catch the ball, only 23 receptions. Ran the ball 276 times. He was their offense. 1122 yards and nine touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

How do you have a line like that and end up as the 25th most consistent?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he still was a top 12 guy. So that's how. I mean he had big time games, nine touchdowns. That's impressive on a team that struggled the way they did on offense. 1100 yards, again, not bad. He was good 50% of the time, but he busted 38% of the time and he struggled when they got behind and they didn't give him the ball. And you had Tariq Cohen's involvement. Now you have a new offensive coordinator, now you have a new offense, now you have a new head coach. What can we really expect from Jordan Howard? Do you feel more confident? Let's say you had a dynasty, half point PPR league and you had to decide whether to keep Jordan Howard or Christian McCaffrey on that team heading into next year. Where do you go?

[Mike Wright]

I would go McCaffrey.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

It's just too much change. I mean Howard could end up being an absolute beast with a new coordinator, the offense. I like what Chicago is doing. Or they could say, you know what, we don't need to be this, you know, give Howard the ball 25 times. Let's get three Cohen more involved. There's just too many questions for me there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. If I have to pick between Howard and McCaffrey, Eileen McCaffrey, draft pedigree. But that's so tough though, because I love Jordan Howard. I really believe in the talent.

[Andy Holloway]

But the I'd be going with the team that I think is going to have success.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

Sooner. And that would be McCaffrey.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And I'm still. The jury is still out on Mitchell Trubisky of Can he turn into one of these good quarterbacks in the league. I'm still not convinced he can't.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I am skeptical as well. All right, before we get to Devonta Freeman, definitely want to thank today's sponsor, Squarespace, especially not just because they're sponsoring, but because it's a great product. I know so many people that they have their big idea, they have their dream and they don't know who to hire, who to get to build a website. It's like, you can do this yourself. You can really do it. There are world class designers making these beautiful templates. You can showcase your work, you can publish a blog, you can even sell products of all kinds with just a few clicks. Customize everything and there's nothing to install or patch or upgrade ever. They have great customer support. Squarespace is just a really great product for people who want to put something on the Internet. If you have that dream, do it and do it yourself. You will not be disappointed at all. And right now you're getting a free trial. So head to squarespace.com for the free trial. When you're ready to launch your site, use the offer code Footballers and you'll save 10% off your first purchase with a website or a domain. That's squarespace.com or offer code. Footballers.

[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

I got them for my kids. They love them.

[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

P.com football all right, this next running back has the second largest gap against top performing defenses. So he is negative 7.6 fantasy points per game when he faces a top half defense. And that's Devonta freeman. He played 14 games this year under 200 carries with 196 and 860 yards. 865, I'm sorry, and seven touchdowns. Caught the ball 36 times for 317 and one overall. Just kind of a down year in proportion to what happened to Atlanta. Now Atlanta had a down year on offense in comparison to their otherworldly year last year. You would say that they regressed past the mean. So this wasn't just a we're going back to what we, you know, are capable of or have done historically. You know, Matt Ryan, we'll talk about him on a QB truth show. He regressed beyond the mean, had a struggling year. Now, but Freeman, you expected more from him, did you not?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, certainly you did. I mean, you drafted him usually as the fourth or fifth running back off the board. But this is one of those things where I think the disappointment level people feel in Freeman is more emotions as to when it happened than how he actually was. He finished, you know, as the 13th running back, 14th inconsistency. He was still very good. And you know, it came out after the playoffs that he has been dealing with. What was it, an MCL and PCL sprain? Yes. You know, and he didn't look the same like watching him run, you know, I every time I watch Falcons I see Tevin Coleman, who's a very good runner. And I see Devonta Freeman who's on another level. And you know, if you look at the last couple games, especially the last playoff game, it was the exact opposite. It was like Freeman just didn't have something there. He's still a young guy. And yeah, I really, I really like Freeman. I do worry about the home road splits historically and the, you know, taking advantage of the bottom half defenses.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he just got paid. He is young and I think you look at this as just a down year.

[Jason Moore]

Well, moving forward, to be fair for Devontae Freeman, he did. He missed two games.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

And if you, I don't mind prorating out over 14 games with a guy who has his consistent level, his rushing numbers in 16 games would be very comparable to what he put up the past two years. Attempts and yards, maybe down a little bit on the touchdowns and the receiving would be close to last year. That's where things were huge for him in the previous two years. 73 receptions, 54 receptions. So that has come down under Sarkeesian. And also the, what has come down under Sarkeesian is the, the level of intuitive and smart play calling around the goal, around the goal line where you have one of the best goal line backs in the league over the past few years and you go, well, we're going to run this little tricky play and then flip it to Toront Ward. They'll never see it coming because Toronto.

[Mike Wright]

Ward didn't see it coming.

[Andy Holloway]

36 receptions is troubling because you counted on that from him. And like you said, that's something where you can look at Sarkeesian and say, well, that might be something that changes. Maybe they're not using them the same way that you'd hope they would. It's interesting because Freeman, McCaffrey and then this next guy, Deion Lewis at 14. I mean Lewis has very similar numbers to Devonta Freeman this year. But the draft capital, what you invested in, the player is not in the same stratosphere. I mean, Deion Lewis was 100. He had 180 carries for 896 yards and six touchdowns, 32 receptions for 214 and three. He wasn't as consistent as Devonta Freeman, but he also wasn't as established in that offense.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it took some time.

[Andy Holloway]

You had James White who really carried the load for them over the first quarter of the year and then kind of got washed out. You also had Mike Gillisley who started a few games and then he was benched with Rex Burkhead's return and Lewis had to kind of get back into game shape from previous year's injuries. But he played 16 games. He only busted 25% of the time and most of that. Was he pretty darn good.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. If you look at. I mean he's one of these guys where Dion Lewis was actually really consistent once his role was established. He came in. Everyone remembers week one. Who's it going to be? Oh, you know who it's going to be. It's going to be Mike Gillisley. He's the guy to have for the Patriots backfield.

[Andy Holloway]

I thought it was Burkhead.

[Jason Moore]

Didn't Burkhead get the first.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the first snap and then it was all the debate but the tilt. The point is it wasn't. It looked like it wasn't Deon Lewis. It looked like they had signed two new guys and they weren't sure about Dion Lewis's health. But as the season went on they realized their best back is Dion Lewis. The other guys got injured and he has done what he did.

[Andy Holloway]

He's just more versatile than all of them.

[Mike Wright]

First half of the year. First half of the year because they had a bye week right in. Right at week nine. First eight weeks Dion Lewis averaged 6.2 fantasy points. He basically wasn't used as a fantasy capable running back. He wasn't given the opportunity after that bye week. 16.3 on average, which is fantastic. So he was consistent there. The issue with him now is always the Patriots.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Are they going. What. Who's going to. Who's it going to be? Week one next year. And also he's not under contract. He's an unrestricted free agent. So you don't even know where he's going to be right now. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

You can look at. You can see the change in the box score for Deion Lewis the first five weeks. Never over double digit carries the remainder of the season. Only once under double digit carries and put him on pace for 234 attempts. Once they finally started using him in week six with Jason that it'll be interesting to see what he does. I. I have this feeling that Dion Lewis will be back and Rex. Rex Burkheadt is the wild card I think for the Patriots running game because Rex Burkitt is. Was a one year contract. Will they try and bring him back and go move forward with with Lewis, Burkhead and White.

[Andy Holloway]

Interesting. Duke Johnson 15th in rank. 15th and consistency. Kind of lost in the brown cloud.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So to speak. 16 games. Really a wide receiver. Only 82 carries on the year but 74 receptions for 693 yards and three touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

He was never great that and that.

[Andy Holloway]

Never had a great week.

[Jason Moore]

That's exactly why five week Duke Johnson never got the credit that you think headline the 15th ranked running back should get.

[Mike Wright]

But he just was.

[Jason Moore]

You would plug him in, you'd feel feel okay about this. But just a never, never a great game is is unfortunate that we didn't get an explosion he Crowell was relinquished to fantasy waiver wire fodder.

[Andy Holloway]

31St is where Crowell finished. Just for the record I was going to bring him up because he got a lot of publicity in the preseason from myself as well because of the improvements to the offensive line coach. Yeah, and the coach. But what happened was what always happens, they're losing games, they were winless on the year and when you're down you don't get to commit to the run. You pass the ball in 74 receptions to a very capable pass catching back. Duke Johnson is a tough case moving forward.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he really is. Because you have so much change on that team you expect there to be a new quarterback. The one thing that won't change though and it does give me hope to draft Duke Johnson late again. Duke Johnson, despite finishing 11th in PPR leagues he's still going to fall in drafts because he never had those big monster games. The one thing that we know will stay the same is that the Browns will be bad and so they will be down and they will be.

[Andy Holloway]

I have a. I have a new idea by the way.

[Mike Wright]

Then you will need a pass catching back.

[Andy Holloway]

I wanted to bring this up and we're talking about the Browns. I think they should draft, get this, two quarterbacks. I've heard this theory before. Have you? Yeah, I thought about it this morning because you always hear about, you know, Josh Allen and then Saquon Barkley at one and four. I think you draft two of them. Give yourself a shot, dude. Let two of them compete against each other. A quarterback is so important. Don't mess it up.

[Mike Wright]

I know what I would do. I, I would go hard in the paint after Alex Smith and I would use those first two picks on defense and actually have a team. Because I promise you this, if they, if they grab, if they had the first five picks and they drafted the top five quarterbacks, they'd all fail.

[Andy Holloway]

The thing about Saquon Barkley though is that you've seen Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, instant contenders. When you bring in a guy like that, that's who they probably should draft. I just thought it would be funny to just Stack them up, just let them compete with each other. You can then trade one away later on.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

Back to Duke. It's outlandish, I realized that, but I like it.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think it's a terrible idea. I think it's. There's some smarts behind it for Duke Johnson. The problem though, with Duke Johnson is, I mean, when you're finally thinking about it, okay, you got him on your bench, I can plug him in. That's when you get wrapped up in. Well, there's this waiver wire guy who's producing solid numbers and you want to play them over Duke Johnson. So do you. You have some comfort. Jason, you were saying with Duke Johnson, it just.

[Mike Wright]

I do.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I don't know if I.

[Mike Wright]

Look, Duke Johnson is theoretic. That's. He's one of these guys where if you need to drop him, you can. But I usually don't ever drop a startable running back.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

I'll stash him on my team. I'll use him as a flex week, a bye week guy. If I don't like my matchups, I'll plug him in for, you know, around those 10 points.

[Andy Holloway]

You're never excited. You were never excited to play him.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

But you could.

[Mike Wright]

You could never. He didn't really fail you. He just didn't win you weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Lamar Miller only won you one week. He was a bust 19% of the time. Good 50% of the time. Consistency, rank of 21st after finishing the year at 16 overall, 238 carries, three touchdowns on the ground, had three touchdowns through the air on only 36 catches. And his case is interesting too. You had a season with Deshaun Watson. Obviously a running back is going to perform better when there's teams in the red zone. And that's when his great game came. But what's left in the tank? I mean, this team showed a willingness to play Alfred Blue over Lamar Miller at times. You had Deontay Foreman, who I think would have had more and more opportunities towards the end of the year had he not been injured. And Lamar Miller is just kind of there. Lamar Miller is there. That would be the best way to put him. Put it. Probably will be. What. What round do you think he goes?

[Jason Moore]

I want to see if he's even on the. Houston, Texas, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

What is it? Will you look up his contract?

[Jason Moore]

I'm pulling it up.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if they did move on. But if he is back and he's their number one running back, he'll probably go in the third round and he belongs there. The reality is, if he is back, he's still not too old. And when he had Watson, he was actually really good. You look at, you know, his splits the first half of the year, which was with Watson, say before week nine, he was 13.8 on average. He was okay after that. From that point on, he averaged 8.9 points a game. While, you know, it was pretty much just the DeAndre Hopkins show. We're down, we can't run the ball. So this is a situation where it's a matter of if he is back as the starter. I think he will be okay. He'll be what you saw the first half of the year, which is not something special. He really does not look great. Like just studying film watching. He never does anything that impresses me and this. And I was the Lamar Miller true.

[Andy Holloway]

He's at the bottom of the league for yards after contact again.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. I mean, he never. But he did look in those games with Watson, he had. He had juice. He had. Like I care again. It was kind of like what you saw with, with Todd Gurley in 2016, where it just looked like he just didn't care. He's just, I don't want to try harder because these guys are always behind the line and our team sucks.

[Jason Moore]

The factors for me are Deontay Foreman, it was a torn achilles in week 11 and he could be ready, probably.

[Andy Holloway]

Won'T be to start the year, but.

[Jason Moore]

That'S a tough injury to come back for him, especially that late season.

[Mike Wright]

Certainly can't bank on him to be your starting position.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely. The contract situation for Lamar Miller, if they cut him, it would be 2 million in dead cap, but they would save 4.75 million in space.

[Mike Wright]

They'll probably keep them.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. I want to move through some of these names a little quicker. C.J. anderson, 17th, you know, by the end of the year, finished strong. Consistency rank was only 31st, though he busted 44% of the time. So almost half the time you put C.J. anderson in your lineup, you walked away with a frowny face.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you felt it too all year. To play him on the right weeks was near impossible, except at the very end of the year when it became apparent there giving him the ball. But you look at his game line, it's like, oh, he scores 28 points, then five, then 13, then one. I mean, he destroyed you if you tried to play him. And in my dynasty league, I tried to play him. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Unfortunately, if. Even if you're like my two colleagues who believe in the talent of C.J. anderson, when push came to shove, you could not lean on him in any way, shape or form this year. It'll be interesting to see what happens when they get a quarterback in Denver and what they do in the draft. You have Devontae Booker there. You had Jamal Charles there. But I. I wouldn't be surprised if they brought a free agent in to compete.

[Jason Moore]

They may.

[Andy Holloway]

But Anderson was. That's what he was. 31st, most consistent, 17th best, I'll say.

[Jason Moore]

Three out of the first four weeks. You started Anderson, you were very, very happy. The problem was the middle of the season drought was very long. We're not talking Kareem Hunt was. You could still play him. It was. You were getting devastated. You never knew when to play him until about the final month of the season. I don't know what the Denver Broncos are going to do with, with C.G. anderson. He could be a cap casualty. But I still, like Andy said, I still strongly believe in the talent of C.J. anderson. And he made it. He made it all 16. He did it.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, sure took some time off in the middle.

[Jason Moore]

Well, yeah, a little bit.

[Andy Holloway]

Alex Collins was number 18, a waiver wire wonder. Alex Collins, 18th in fantasy production, 26th on the consistency charts. He busted 33% of the time, was good 40% of the time and was great 13% of time. So that's a pair of games in which he. He won you a week because he had such a great performance. Almost 1,000 yards on 212 carries, six touchdowns, and then caught 23 balls. Did not play as well against good defenses. He was down 5.3 fantasy points against good defenses, some of that and did not get the vote of confidence from John Harbaugh thus far as being kind of the guy for next year. They're waiting on Kenneth Dixon's return. I've tried to pick up Kenneth Dixon in a few leagues. I still think that they're going to give him every opportunity to be.

[Jason Moore]

Really, you still believe in him?

[Andy Holloway]

I do. I believe in Kenneth Dixon. I think his talent is significantly above what Alex Collins is. And. And so I think they're going to give him the opportunity, one more opportunity to be that guy. Now he's had injury concerns and then he's had disciplinary concerns. So those things are red flags. But I think Dixon will have an opportunity.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, I. Collins passed the eye test. To me this year, he really did look like a successful player. And I'm in agreement with you, Andy. I'm not Convinced he'll be the back next year. It's a wait and see. But if he is, I'm fine putting, you know, more confidence in him. His consistency rating is one of those players where it's a little bit skewed because he wasn't on this team in training camp. You know, he was a, he was cut from Seattle and it wasn't until week four. Yeah. Whoops. It wasn't until game five, so week, week five that he was actually involved as you know, as a running back getting, you know, at least 10 carries. From that point forward, he would have projected for about 250 carries, over 1,000 yards, eight touchdowns. And my favorite part about Alex Collins, he's 23 years old. I mean, they could have a young, good running back for this team already in place. So we'll have to wait and see what happens in the off season. But you know, he averaged over 14 points a game, you know, the second half of the year, which is really good for a running back.

[Jason Moore]

And this is, it's a wait and see for Alex Collins because if he is the guy for the Baltimore Ravens, if he ends up getting that starter job and keeps it away from Kenneth Dixon, then he will be valuable and he'll be drafted.

[Andy Holloway]

Top 15 type of back. Yeah, potentially.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, you're talking a third, fourth round running back.

[Mike Wright]

Check this stat out. Another one from our 25 Stats article about the youth movement right now for running backs. The average age of the top 12 running backs, the whole RB1 group. Any guesses?

[Jason Moore]

Nope.

[Andy Holloway]

Average age for the whole RB1 group is 24 years old.

[Mike Wright]

That is correct. 24, wow. Yeah. And that included LaShawn McCoy was 29 and Carlos Hyde 27, Mark Ingram 28. Without those three guys, it's under 23. It's 22 point stuff.

[Jason Moore]

It's a young man's game.

[Mike Wright]

It is.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, take the 24, double it and you get number 19 on the list. Frank Gore, 48 years old, consistency rank of 22. He was not your RB12. I know I disappointed the world. He also just missed 1000 yards again and never much like Duke Johnson, never had a great game, never a top five type of performance on average. Busted a quarter of the time was good 50% of the time. And I've seen a lot of articles already this off season talking up, you know, Marlon Mack as a big breakout type of guy for next year. Gore is very limited at this point in his career. Bad team, over the hill, only caught 29 passes, still finished in the top 24. So I'm not saying he's not worth drafting, but I think you're talking about somebody whose touches are going to be limited here on out. And look, we all joke about it, but Fred Jackson hit a wall eventually and was cut. Frank Gore is going to hit that wall as well.

[Jason Moore]

Frank Gore could have zero carries. Frank Gore is not under contract with the Indianapolis Colts. And he has kind of come out and said himself he's played both sides of the fences, but he doesn't want to come back unless Andrew Luck is healthy.

[Mike Wright]

So.

[Jason Moore]

But in just two, he's 34 by.

[Andy Holloway]

The way, not 48.

[Jason Moore]

Just to end, to settle some people down. We were disappointed he was not running back 12. However, he did have the 12th most rushing yards in the NFL. He's holding it down. Holding it down.

[Mike Wright]

Life finds a way. Speaking of life finds way, Marshawn Lynch. Next up on the list, another old man still, still alive.

[Andy Holloway]

He became a necessary part of this offense over the back half of the year because of the struggles of Derek Carr, because of the struggles of Amari Cooper, because of the struggles of the offensive line and the regression in the.

[Mike Wright]

Offense, the injuries and suspensions to Crabtree.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, the offensive coordinator there struggled and now you have a whole new system team. Jon Gruden coming in and I, I'm interested in seeing what happens with Marshawn Lynch. He, he signed a contract.

[Jason Moore]

I was going to say that for.

[Andy Holloway]

He had a base salary of 9 million over two years. A chance to earn 16.5 million if he reaches the incentives. That was the deal he signed with Oakland. So he's still under contract with Oakland if he wants to play. I imagine he does.

[Jason Moore]

He will cost them $6 million for this upcoming season. So I'm not sure that Marshawn's going to be back. Are you going to pay a 31 year old? I know he's. Marshawn took some time off, whatever. 31 year old running back we just talked about. The average age of really highly productive running backs is 24. You're going to pay a 31 year old $6 million when you can cut him for zero dead cap?

[Andy Holloway]

No, it's a fair question. I like Jalen Richard still as a sleeper for next year. Lynch never had a top five type of performance. He was good 53% of the time, busted 27% of the time, only caught 20 balls. We know what lynch is. He's eight, you know, first and second down guy. I would still think he's going to be back. That's My. That's my.

[Jason Moore]

We all know how it worked out when I made a proclamation about Marshawn lynch returning to the NFL. So I will recuse myself from this discussion.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, we need a judge then if you're recusing yourself.

[Jason Moore]

Judge.

[Andy Holloway]

Judge should make a ruling on what?

[Mike Wright]

Lynch back next year.

[Andy Holloway]

He's gone.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason, do you agree with the judge?

[Mike Wright]

I think there is a good chance he's gone. He signed with a different coach. You know, I remember when he signed.

[Andy Holloway]

That's also a good point.

[Jason Moore]

Jack Del Rio.

[Mike Wright]

Jack Del Rio was jacked. I remember that video.

[Jason Moore]

Tweeting out videos.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my God.

[Jason Moore]

Lumbering all around.

[Mike Wright]

It was unbelievable. And so, you know, now it's a whole change. I won't be surprised either way if he's back. He's going to be should be drafted very late. He won't be used enough. We saw the stretches of Marshawn lynch where he was not the volume back and when he wasn't he wasn't worth starting.

[Andy Holloway]

Tevin Coleman.

[Mike Wright]

Tevin Colman.

[Andy Holloway]

Almost 21st running back. Off the board, some dissonance. I'm sorry not off the board dissonance.

[Jason Moore]

In your musical abilities.

[Andy Holloway]

The 21st in terms of rank consistency of 18. He's a tough player to own, to draft to start to play because he's not the number one on his own franchise. So 156 carries, 27 receptions. I'd be disappointed in that reception number after a pretty good year last year.

[Jason Moore]

Especially knowing what he can do exactly with receptions.

[Mike Wright]

He was good both backs. That's just the change of scheme.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he was good 60% of the time, busted 27% and was a little bit behind the eight ball against top defenses minus 3.4. That that factors in his performance against top Ds but also you know the team's not going to be utilizing that position as much. He's in an interesting boat because you got Jerick McKinnon up next who's also not the guy but in Jerick McKinnon.

[Jason Moore]

Is a free agent. Tevin Coleman will be back with the Falcons for sure. I like Coleman coming into next year. He's an.

[Mike Wright]

He's.

[Andy Holloway]

You like him more or less than Duke Johnson?

[Jason Moore]

More.

[Mike Wright]

Much more.

[Jason Moore]

I like. I like him more than Duke Johnson. We know he has the built in RB1 in him if something happens to Devonta Freeman. We saw it when Freeman was out. Coleman was a must start and he came through and but 60% good games. The problem with Tevin Coleman this last season was he was coming Off a great. So he was being overdrafted as the running back to in his committee. So if, if he's going to fall to that sixth round, back of the fifth, sixth round, then I will gladly be taking Tevin Coleman on my teams.

[Andy Holloway]

He is a think ahead candidate for dynasty owners. He is 24 years old. He's under contract next year and then one more year. Yeah, 2018. Then he's an unrestricted free agent in 2019. That's going to be his payday. That's going to be his Michael Turner leaves San Diego time and he is an explosive player. He's a capable player. He was a third round draft pick in 2015 and they're not going to pay two guys big time money in Atlanta. So Tevin Coleman's got one more year in the Sarkeesian experiment and then he's going to be a free agent. So this would be the time where, look, Mike's saying you can play him anyways, but maybe you play him and then you'd look to cash in big time in a dynasty league keeper league format. It's going to be tough in two years.

[Jason Moore]

It's going to be tough to try and prime away if that's your goal in dynasty because the other player hopefully is smart enough to know that he has one more year left.

[Andy Holloway]

But maybe they're not, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah. Oh, trust me.

[Mike Wright]

Maybe.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, we've talked about things, you know, our rule of drop it like it's hot. Where everyone thinks, no, people do dumb things. That can never happen in my league.

[Mike Wright]

And then, then they check.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And it happened.

[Jason Moore]

And then you keep.

[Mike Wright]

And then people are getting tweet up and go, thank you.

[Jason Moore]

People are getting Zach Ertz and Ezekiel Elliott off the waiver wire.

[Andy Holloway]

That's exactly right. You just got to be thinking ahead. Yes, you got to. It only takes one.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, this is, that's the Andy Holloway special. See, what Andy does is he thinks, oh, you know, maybe Tevin Coleman would be good. And then you know what he does? He doesn't just sit there, he just goes and makes an offer. And 9 out of 10 times the other person goes, well, no, Tevin Coleman's going to be great. But then that one time, you know, he just shotgun approaches and it's like every player that should be valued, he goes and makes a little cheap trade for. And then one guy is like, oh yeah, I don't like him.

[Andy Holloway]

That used to work a lot better before I had a fantasy football. Because not only do they know what I say on the show, but there's this back of the mind. Well, what do you know that I don't know that comes along with being the host of the Fantasy Footballers podcast? So Jerick McKinnon, DeMarco Murray, Latavius Murray round out the top 24 at running back. You have McKinnon and Latavius there at 22, 24. These guys were compliments all year long ever since Dalvin Cook went down. And so from a consistency standpoint, they finished really low. Now, part of that is because they didn't have established roles in the beginning of the year, but were still active. And part of that is because they just weren't that consistent. Jericho McKinnon. There were weeks you were like, this is the guy. You get the pass catching, you got some goal line to start out after Dalvin Cook left. But that was also before Latavius Murray's health came back to form and they trusted him in those situations. Murray had eight touchdowns on the ground. McKinnon only had three. McKinnon had 51 receptions. But he's a free agent now, and what can we really expect him to do? I mean, get a role just like this somewhere else?

[Mike Wright]

He should go somewhere else.

[Andy Holloway]

Isn't he as talented as a Duke Johnson out of the backfield? Yes, I think he is.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

And Latavius Murray finishing the year with 216 carries when he had 14 total carries weeks one through four is pretty impressive. The unfortunate thing for him is Dalvin Cook is the superior running back. So assuming that Dalvin is back to.

[Mike Wright]

Full health, he should come right back into his monstrous role. Dalvin Cook will be the guy. These are the first four weeks for McKinnon and Murray McKinnon first four weeks, 5.5, 4.3, 1.6, negative 1.8. And Latavius Murray, negative, started the year with negative 0.2, 0.9, 0.7 and 4.6. They were irrelevant when Dalvin Cook was there, and I imagine they will be again.

[Jason Moore]

The Latavius Murray where it was. He finally got in the game. And didn't he fumble on his first carry?

[Mike Wright]

Something like that, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Good times.

[Andy Holloway]

Dalvin Cook was the eighth most consistent running back. Now, he only played four games, but he was great guys. He was incredible. 74 for 354 and 2. So just keep that in mind when you're thinking about the role that Murray's going to have next year. Speaking of Murray DeMarco at 23 overall, a disappointing year. You have to just take your lumps here. I thought it would turn around because they were, you know, malarkey was undyingly loyal to demarco Murray. And so I kept waiting for that to translate into Murray's production like it did last year.

[Mike Wright]

I was.

[Andy Holloway]

Murray was not good. He was great last year.

[Mike Wright]

Correct. You and I were in a great.

[Andy Holloway]

One of the most consistent running backs in football last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And Mike stood opposed. And stands.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct. Minus seven against top defense is busted 40% of the time. Played better at home, couldn't travel. Only one great game on the season and that was the result of pretty much that big old long broken play. Touchdown. And he's come out and said he thinks he's the same guy. He's still a great player. 29 years old, but a lot of wear and tear on that body.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Where does he end up?

[Mike Wright]

Hey, I just. Since we're talking about. Oh, this is Latavius Murray.

[Jason Moore]

No, we're talking about tomorrow.

[Mike Wright]

We were just talking about. I want to give a shout out. Happy birthday, Latavius.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that's it. Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

How did you figure that out? Did you get a text?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I get NFL birthday alerts on your calendar update. I've got all the players in there. You write them a little letter by hand.

[Jason Moore]

The worst part for the demise of DeMarco Murray this season is both sides of the Titans running back argument lost. You couldn't play DeMarco and you couldn't play Derrick Henry. Now I am firmly on the side that DeMarco Murray will be done with the Titans. His head cheerleader in malarkey is gone. I think it's. It's. They're going to move on. But with the new coach that doesn't necessarily mean that Derek Henry is the automatic three down roll. We're going to put everything on him. I imagine that they will draft another running back and it's going to be.

[Mike Wright]

Tough to get 2018 DeMarco Murray. He's 6.25 mil and the dead cap 6.5.

[Jason Moore]

Wait, really?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

What?

[Mike Wright]

According to Spot Track.

[Jason Moore]

Really?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So that says that he will be back because they're paying him a lot of money to not be there if he's not there. Unless. Unless Spot track has incorrect information.

[Jason Moore]

No, no.

[Mike Wright]

They're usually the great. The best source.

[Jason Moore]

No, what are you talking about? In 2018 they. They can cut him with zero dead cap. You are reading things incorrectly.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you are correct. Thank you. The cap hit would be six and a half million without cutting him.

[Jason Moore]

If they go back dead times and cut him in 2017.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Then it's 6.5.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So zero. Okay. Now that he's gone, you know he gone.

[Mike Wright]

Jason, we knew your grammar was an issue, but it's also my reading, writing, arithmetic.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm very.

[Jason Moore]

Three hours.

[Andy Holloway]

I am very confident in myself, said Murray. And I'm excited. I'm excited about the future and my future. I know what kind of player that I am.

[Jason Moore]

If, if we can just somehow get Doug Martin and demarco Murray sharing a.

[Andy Holloway]

Backfield, long term, you have to, you have to put all your chips on demarco Murray or CJ Anderson from here on out.

[Mike Wright]

CJ Anderson without a shadow of a doubt. I don't even know that DeMarco Murray plays football next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh.

[Mike Wright]

If he's cut here, he's a 30 year old back. That's going to want money.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a 29 year old back.

[Mike Wright]

He's currently 29 years old in 340 days. So he'll be 30. Yes, he'll be 30 on February 12th.

[Jason Moore]

You know what I say, Jason dominates, apparently his birthdays. Yes, he's all over that.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I know.

[Andy Holloway]

DeMarco Murray is not on the cusp of retirement. He's going to find a team in a heartbeat. And you know, he's. He, he dealt with a lot of injuries this year.

[Jason Moore]

That's what we would have thought for Adrian Peterson last year.

[Andy Holloway]

He did find a team.

[Mike Wright]

Not a heartbeat. Struggled forever and then finally went to a team that traded him after.

[Andy Holloway]

I thought you meant that. Yeah, but he still, he still played in the NFL.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he got a job. So Murray, he'll probably get a job, but people are not going to be banging down the door to pay DeMarco Murray millions of dollars when you draft someone in the fifth round for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Especially after that year. He'll have to prove it. That's why maybe he, maybe he's back with Tennessee. I mean, he probably compliments Derek Henry there. Chris Thompson, don't forget about him.

[Jason Moore]

Oh my goodness.

[Andy Holloway]

13Th most consistent. Hard to really project him moving forward because he hadn't done it before at this level. 64 for 294 and 239 receptions, four touchdowns. Big play. Guy was great 20% of the time. In his limited appearances this year, in the 10 games, two of them, he won you the week. And that's what you remembered about Chris Thompson. He was electric.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's. But he has a massive, massive laundry list. History of injuries, unfortunately. This is why we've really never seen Chris Thompson break out for Fantasy. He always was on the cusp, you could see it there. But he broke out and unfortunately got injured again. But his team, who's his quarterback? If it's not Kirk Cousins playing quarterback for Washington, then you have, you have no clue what the value of Chris Thompson will actually be. Because let's say a new quarterback comes in a rookie or just a lower tier quarterback, certainly he will still have that pass catching role. But what will the offense look like? Will it, will it take a huge step down Chris Thompson? It will be a pretty big wild card that you can swing for later in draft.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I want your take real quick on two more running backs, J. Ajayi and Ty Montgomery. Ajayi 32nd Montgomery 52, consistency ranks back to back at 33 and 34 and tons of question marks over both those guys heads. I obviously still believe that Jay Jai is the best running back. Agreed. A great team.

[Jason Moore]

Completely agree.

[Andy Holloway]

But a team that's been willing to use four running backs if they needed.

[Jason Moore]

To, that's the problem. It's not even a two person timeshare.

[Andy Holloway]

Like the Patriots in the nfc.

[Jason Moore]

You're like, okay, well maybe Corey Clement, he's showing some juice. And as the pass catching they're like ah, we're going to put in Barner. So you just cannot, you could not confidently go with one of these players.

[Mike Wright]

And the worst part is it works.

[Jason Moore]

Right for their team. Yeah, yeah. So they're not going to go away from it, I would imagine. I'm going to project that Legarre Blount will not be on that team next year. So Jai, it likely will be a more consistent, more usable running back for Fantasy. And if he can get those carries, which we've seen his role increase kind of every single week since moving to Philadelphia, JI will be great for Fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

And Ty Montgomery, you know, I would be shocked if he comes back in 2018 and is the lead back. Given what they saw from the two native running backs that they drafted in the, you know, in the 2017 draft. Jamal Williams, Aaron Jones, both were great. They're both great. So I can't imagine time Montgomery opened this season on fire. You thought you had a locked in top five running back at the very beginning of the season because he was, you know, he was 90 plus percent of snaps. I mean a good workhorse is like 60% for running backs and that's just not going to happen with those other two running backs. So I, you know, you'll have to see camp reports next year. To see if he's established a passing.

[Jason Moore]

Game that's going to be a hot topic.

[Andy Holloway]

If you cut Randall Khan, maybe he takes over in the slot.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Back to his native wide receiver position.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, that is it for the truth Episode Part two. We've still got tight ends and quarterbacks ahead. All your latest news information. We're right. We're right there, guys. We got the super bowl, then the draft. Free agency can't wait. Bye.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter @The FF Ballers.