Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast Episode: Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2017, Part 1
Release Date: January 9, 2018
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

Introduction

In this episode, the Fantasy Footballers dive deep into the world of wide receivers (WRs) in the 2017 NFL season, focusing on their consistency and overall fantasy performance. The hosts aim to provide fantasy managers with insightful analysis to make informed decisions during the 2018 fantasy drafts.

Overview of Consistency Analysis

Andy Holloway introduces the core objective of the episode:

"[...] we are going through a number of the top finishers at the wide receiver position in fantasy football. We'll be breaking down their consistency numbers." (02:10)

The hosts define consistency by categorizing WR performances into:

• Great Games: Scoring 20+ points (Top 5 performances) (Andy Holloway, 02:10)
• Good Games: Scoring over 12 points (Top 24 performances) (Jason Moore, 18:02)
• Bust Games: Finishing outside the top 50 at the position (Jason Moore, 18:02)

This framework allows them to evaluate WRs based on how reliably they contributed to fantasy teams throughout the season.

Player Rankings and Analysis

1. DeAndre Hopkins

• Rank: #1 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 96 receptions, 1,378 yards, 13 touchdowns on 175 targets
• Analysis:
  • Only WR in 2017 with zero bust weeks.
  • Maintained a high level of performance despite challenging matchups.
  • Negative 1.3 points against top 16 pass defenses, indicating resilience. (Mike Wright, 27:28)

"He did not score seven or fewer points in one single game that he played this year." (Jason Moore, 26:21)

2. Antonio Brown

• Rank: #2 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: More receptions and yards than Hopkins but fewer touchdowns (9 TDs)
• Analysis:
  • 57% of his games were top-performing weeks.
  • Had a 21% bust rate, primarily due to injuries.

"57% of his games were the weak winning more than 20 points." (Jason Moore, 29:53)

3. Keenan Allen

• Rank: #3 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 102 receptions, 1,393 yards, 6 touchdowns on 159 targets
• Analysis:
  • Only 6% bust rate.
  • Provided reliable week-to-week performance, especially during his later season bolster.

"Keenan Allen was there to catch me when I fell." (Mike Wright, 33:05)

4. Julio Jones

• Rank: #4 Most Consistent WR (Consistency Rank: #8)
• Stats: 88 receptions, 1,400+ yards, 3 touchdowns on 149 targets
• Analysis:
  • Did not have consecutive top performance weeks.
  • Struggled against top defenses, scoring 5.5 points less at home against them.

"Julio Jones had four games this year where he was outside the top 38." (Andy Holloway, 35:40)

5. Larry Fitzgerald

• Rank: #5 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 109 receptions, 1,156 yards, 6 touchdowns on 162 targets
• Analysis:
  • 25% bust rate, primarily impacted by inconsistent quarterback play.
  • Faced uncertainties regarding his future with the Cardinals.

"He had 25% bust games which impacted his consistency ranking." (Andy Holloway, 37:50)

6. Tyreek Hill

• Rank: #6 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 75 receptions, 1,183 yards, 7 touchdowns, plus 59 rushing yards
• Analysis:
  • Negative 10 points at home but delivered monster performances on the road.
  • Highly dependent on game flow and quarterback play.

"Tyreek Hill on the road was magical." (Jason Moore, 51:47)

7. Jarvis Landry

• Rank: #7 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 112 receptions, 1,600 targets, under 1,000 yards, 9 touchdowns
• Analysis:
  • 63% of his games were categorized as good.
  • Faced challenges due to inconsistent quarterback performance but remained reliable.

"Jarvis Landry was one of the better picks this year." (Jason Moore, 45:17)

8. Marvin Jones

• Rank: #8 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 61 receptions, 1,100+ yards, 9 touchdowns
• Analysis:
  • 18% bust rate but demonstrated strong deep-ball potential.
  • Dependent on the team's offensive line and quarterback stability.

"Marvin Jones should be a middle-round wide receiver." (Mike Wright, 55:34)

9. Adam Thielen

• Rank: #9 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 91 receptions, 1,200 yards, 4 touchdowns on 143 targets
• Analysis:
  • Showed fluctuations in performance towards the season's end.
  • Faced challenging game conditions impacting his consistency.

"Adam Thielen had a heck of a year with some up and down performances." (Andy Holloway, 56:46)

Conclusions and Takeaways

The Fantasy Footballers highlight the importance of consistency in drafting WRs for fantasy leagues. Key takeaways include:

• Reliability Over Peak Performance: WRs like DeAndre Hopkins offer consistent weekly contributions, minimizing the risk of bust games.
• Volume Matters: High target volumes correlate with more consistent performance, as seen with Hopkins and Becker.
• Injury Impact: Antonio Brown's high bust rate underscores the risk associated with injury-prone players.
• Team Dynamics Influence: The performance of receivers is heavily influenced by their team's quarterback play and offensive strategy.
• Draft Strategy: Balancing WRs with reliable performers and high-upside players can optimize fantasy team performance.

"You need to put a little bit of extra weight on the ability to carry, the ability to have those Antonio Brown weak winning games." (Jason Moore, 42:25)

Notable Quotes

• Andy Holloway (02:10): "Today is the Truth episode for the wide receiver position. [...] we will be giving you the truth."
• Jason Moore (16:30): "You can't handle the truth."
• Mike Wright (27:28): "DeAndre Hopkins was just consistent. I mean, he was smooth. He was smooth as butter."
• Jason Moore (26:49): "He was the only player that did not have a single bust week."

This detailed analysis provides valuable insights into the performance and reliability of top WRs from the 2017 NFL season, equipping fantasy managers with the necessary information to build strong and balanced rosters for the upcoming season.