Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2017, Part 1

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast Episode: Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2017, Part 1
Release Date: January 9, 2018
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction

In this episode, the Fantasy Footballers dive deep into the world of wide receivers (WRs) in the 2017 NFL season, focusing on their consistency and overall fantasy performance. The hosts aim to provide fantasy managers with insightful analysis to make informed decisions during the 2018 fantasy drafts.

Overview of Consistency Analysis

Andy Holloway introduces the core objective of the episode:

"[...] we are going through a number of the top finishers at the wide receiver position in fantasy football. We'll be breaking down their consistency numbers." (02:10)

The hosts define consistency by categorizing WR performances into:

• Great Games: Scoring 20+ points (Top 5 performances) (Andy Holloway, 02:10)
• Good Games: Scoring over 12 points (Top 24 performances) (Jason Moore, 18:02)
• Bust Games: Finishing outside the top 50 at the position (Jason Moore, 18:02)

This framework allows them to evaluate WRs based on how reliably they contributed to fantasy teams throughout the season.

Player Rankings and Analysis

1. DeAndre Hopkins

• Rank: #1 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 96 receptions, 1,378 yards, 13 touchdowns on 175 targets
• Analysis:
  • Only WR in 2017 with zero bust weeks.
  • Maintained a high level of performance despite challenging matchups.
  • Negative 1.3 points against top 16 pass defenses, indicating resilience. (Mike Wright, 27:28)

"He did not score seven or fewer points in one single game that he played this year." (Jason Moore, 26:21)

2. Antonio Brown

• Rank: #2 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: More receptions and yards than Hopkins but fewer touchdowns (9 TDs)
• Analysis:
  • 57% of his games were top-performing weeks.
  • Had a 21% bust rate, primarily due to injuries.

"57% of his games were the weak winning more than 20 points." (Jason Moore, 29:53)

3. Keenan Allen

• Rank: #3 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 102 receptions, 1,393 yards, 6 touchdowns on 159 targets
• Analysis:
  • Only 6% bust rate.
  • Provided reliable week-to-week performance, especially during his later season bolster.

"Keenan Allen was there to catch me when I fell." (Mike Wright, 33:05)

4. Julio Jones

• Rank: #4 Most Consistent WR (Consistency Rank: #8)
• Stats: 88 receptions, 1,400+ yards, 3 touchdowns on 149 targets
• Analysis:
  • Did not have consecutive top performance weeks.
  • Struggled against top defenses, scoring 5.5 points less at home against them.

"Julio Jones had four games this year where he was outside the top 38." (Andy Holloway, 35:40)

5. Larry Fitzgerald

• Rank: #5 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 109 receptions, 1,156 yards, 6 touchdowns on 162 targets
• Analysis:
  • 25% bust rate, primarily impacted by inconsistent quarterback play.
  • Faced uncertainties regarding his future with the Cardinals.

"He had 25% bust games which impacted his consistency ranking." (Andy Holloway, 37:50)

6. Tyreek Hill

• Rank: #6 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 75 receptions, 1,183 yards, 7 touchdowns, plus 59 rushing yards
• Analysis:
  • Negative 10 points at home but delivered monster performances on the road.
  • Highly dependent on game flow and quarterback play.

"Tyreek Hill on the road was magical." (Jason Moore, 51:47)

7. Jarvis Landry

• Rank: #7 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 112 receptions, 1,600 targets, under 1,000 yards, 9 touchdowns
• Analysis:
  • 63% of his games were categorized as good.
  • Faced challenges due to inconsistent quarterback performance but remained reliable.

"Jarvis Landry was one of the better picks this year." (Jason Moore, 45:17)

8. Marvin Jones

• Rank: #8 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 61 receptions, 1,100+ yards, 9 touchdowns
• Analysis:
  • 18% bust rate but demonstrated strong deep-ball potential.
  • Dependent on the team's offensive line and quarterback stability.

"Marvin Jones should be a middle-round wide receiver." (Mike Wright, 55:34)

9. Adam Thielen

• Rank: #9 Most Consistent WR
• Stats: 91 receptions, 1,200 yards, 4 touchdowns on 143 targets
• Analysis:
  • Showed fluctuations in performance towards the season's end.
  • Faced challenging game conditions impacting his consistency.

"Adam Thielen had a heck of a year with some up and down performances." (Andy Holloway, 56:46)

Conclusions and Takeaways

The Fantasy Footballers highlight the importance of consistency in drafting WRs for fantasy leagues. Key takeaways include:

• Reliability Over Peak Performance: WRs like DeAndre Hopkins offer consistent weekly contributions, minimizing the risk of bust games.
• Volume Matters: High target volumes correlate with more consistent performance, as seen with Hopkins and Becker.
• Injury Impact: Antonio Brown's high bust rate underscores the risk associated with injury-prone players.
• Team Dynamics Influence: The performance of receivers is heavily influenced by their team's quarterback play and offensive strategy.
• Draft Strategy: Balancing WRs with reliable performers and high-upside players can optimize fantasy team performance.

"You need to put a little bit of extra weight on the ability to carry, the ability to have those Antonio Brown weak winning games." (Jason Moore, 42:25)

Notable Quotes

• Andy Holloway (02:10): "Today is the Truth episode for the wide receiver position. [...] we will be giving you the truth."
• Jason Moore (16:30): "You can't handle the truth."
• Mike Wright (27:28): "DeAndre Hopkins was just consistent. I mean, he was smooth. He was smooth as butter."
• Jason Moore (26:49): "He was the only player that did not have a single bust week."

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This detailed analysis provides valuable insights into the performance and reliability of top WRs from the 2017 NFL season, equipping fantasy managers with the necessary information to build strong and balanced rosters for the upcoming season.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Today's episode is brought to you by fantasychamps.com, your home for fantasy football trophies, rings and championship belts. Use our code ballers to save 10%.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, coming to you from the Play Draft Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

I got a snake, man.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's the way to open up a show. Slippery, real slippery.

[Jason Moore]

Like slithering all over the ground.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome. It is January 9th. We are the fantasy footballers Andy, Mike and Jason, back once again. It's 2018. It is Tuesday, and we are fresh off a wild card weekend. And wild. It was in some ways, boring in others.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, slightly. I mean, you had three incredibly exciting games.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I could not agree more. Incredible games. But when Andy says boring in some ways. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. That's correct. Because that Jacksonville Buffalo game is not worth a playoff game.

[Mike Wright]

You can't focus that when. When 75% of the games were amazing. They weren't just good, they were amazing.

[Andy Holloway]

The Chiefs, they finished how they played this year. They were what they were. They started quick and they ended sour.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

To be fair, for the.

[Andy Holloway]

And they lost. Travis Kelsey lost.

[Mike Wright]

Kelsey lost. Chris Jones. I mean, it's you. It's like the. The Patriots in the middle of a game. If Gronk were to go down, that's the first thing people would talk about is, oh, well, Gronk went down. Kravis Kelsey is that important to the Chiefs.

[Andy Holloway]

Although you should probably give winners. Find a way, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you should give the league's leading rusher more than 11 carries. That's just my two cents.

[Andy Holloway]

How.

[Jason Moore]

How could they give him carries? Mike, they were. They were up.

[Mike Wright]

They were up by 18 points.

[Jason Moore]

You got to go to the passing game.

[Andy Holloway]

Today is the Truth episode for the wide receiver position. On this episode today, we will be going through a number of the top finishers at the wide receiver position in fantasy football. We'll be breaking down their consistency numbers. Whether they actually felt like the number two or the number four, the number eight or the number ten fantasy wide receiver, how did they actually help your team? How do they perform based on home road splits, against top defenses and against bottom defenses, we're going to give you the truth. That's what this episode is all about. We want you to be equipped going into 2018 fantasy drafts with the kind of information you need to win so you can make an informed decision and build a roster that isn't just comprised of players based on how they finish, but also based on what they do. For you and Jason, Mike, myself, we spent a lot of time looking at these numbers, seeing how often players finished as top performers, what we call great performers versus good versus busts, what players never let you down, that type of stuff. So I'm excited.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, we've heard for the last several years how important these episodes are for future championships. I know. We've heard people go, you know, I started listening during your truth series on a position, and it changed how I drafted. It changed how I thought about these players. Because you can't just go by end of year rankings. If you go by end of year rankings and you go, okay, A.J. green, he finished as a wide receiver. One. He was great. He. He hurt a lot of players this year by the amount of bust games he had. So, you know, we'll get into the specifics on a lot of wide receivers, but I think it's extremely important.

[Andy Holloway]

And you have another thing that happens at the end of the season those last three, four weeks, including week 17, you're in your fantasy playoffs. You're paying attention to only specific players. And maybe a player has a very strong finish so they move up to the top 10. The top 12. Couple years ago, I remember Jason Whitten lit it up in the last couple weeks of the season. Ended up a top, you know, 12 guy, but he didn't really play that way for you during the season. And so we'll. We'll try to illuminate some of those situations as well. We're going to talk a little bit about the playoffs, and if we have time, we'll get into the mailbag, we'll have a couple of truth episodes at the wide receiver position.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And then we'll get into the tight ends, the quarterbacks as well. And look, I'm going to running backs also.

[Jason Moore]

We'll also do the running backs.

[Andy Holloway]

Good point. Yeah, excellent.

[Jason Moore]

Pretty important position.

[Andy Holloway]

They're going to add those into most leagues next year. The Titans beat the Chiefs. We just talked about that game.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it was a stunner, though.

[Andy Holloway]

22, 21.

[Jason Moore]

Hope you didn't turn it off at halftime.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they were getting absolutely smoked.

[Andy Holloway]

Broke my bracket right there. Broke Mike's bracket right there.

[Jason Moore]

In fairness, it broke everyone's bracket outside of Tennessee.

[Andy Holloway]

I didn't even know Tennessee was in the playoffs until the third quarter. I didn't even realize they had made it.

[Mike Wright]

It was unbelievable what happens when you have a running back not named Jamarco Murray playing for that team, which I don't know if you guys saw the Reports the Titans are likely to stick with Derek Henry even if demarco Hen or demarco Murray is healthy this upcoming week.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, that's genius.

[Mike Wright]

Henry was great. The team rode on his back. Mariota played well enough. We didn't even bring up the fantasy unicorn.

[Jason Moore]

Oh my goodness.

[Mike Wright]

The self pass reception play of the year. It happened.

[Andy Holloway]

Marcus Mariota threw a touchdown to himself. What's the big deal?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, double points.

[Mike Wright]

That one play depending on your scoring. But in PPR, that's about a 14 point play.

[Andy Holloway]

It would just be so incredible if they happened during the year. And you know, you get in those situations where, oh, you can't fest the maximum amount of points from a, you know, from a possession. If you only have Mariota, it seems like it's X amount of points to the goal line and then you double that with that whole shenanigans.

[Mike Wright]

That was incredible.

[Andy Holloway]

You won't see that very often.

[Mike Wright]

No, it's twice actually.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that ever.

[Jason Moore]

Wait, that's happened before.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Brad Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I don't know how I forgot.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, the Falcons defeated the Rams pretty handily, I would say. I mean, they were in control of the game.

[Mike Wright]

It got close there for a little bit. I mean, you got to honestly, my heart breaks for Pharaoh.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I was going to bring. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Pharaoh Cooper.

[Jason Moore]

You know, you could say playoff experience, but I thought the Rams played just fine. But Pharaoh Cooper did not. The first half, the Rams didn't get to play offense because every time that they were going to receive the ball, Pharaoh Cooper said, yeah, why don't you guys have it?

[Andy Holloway]

I believe he's an all pro.

[Jason Moore]

He had a great season. Not good in the playoffs.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, turnovers, they're going to cost you. The Rams no longer part of the playoff picture.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

The jags 10 to 3 over the bills. And immediately Buffalo has turned once again on Tyrod Taylor. He will not be there next year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, they.

[Mike Wright]

Well, and Nathan Peterman is not the answer either.

[Jason Moore]

Who is he?

[Andy Holloway]

Ain't even the question.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I was rooting for him. I mean that. That kid was putting up an awful situation and he produced awful results. Terribly.

[Andy Holloway]

And in the most exciting.

[Mike Wright]

You got to at least mention Blake. The snake portals. The best part of this game, ladies and gentlemen, was. Was just tweeting out snake gifts to troll the entire Twitter community because everyone else is just, oh, Blake is so bad. And I'm like, just wait, just wait. It's gonna happen. And then he has more rushing yards than passing yards. Somehow wins a playoff game.

[Andy Holloway]

He won that game with his legs.

[Jason Moore]

More rushing yards than Leonard Fournette.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, that's. He was. That was a gritty performance.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, my goodness.

[Andy Holloway]

You couldn't finish the Saints knock off the Panthers. Oh, what a very close game. You know, Sean Payton went for it on fourth down there at the end. Didn't want to pin Cam Newton back. I thought that was crazy.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that was.

[Andy Holloway]

I kept wondering to myself whether or not I was called two timeouts in a row, which I know you can't do, but I still thought he might try after he ran out there for the fourth down. The play call, I mean, I get it.

[Mike Wright]

It ended up being really just a punt because unfortunately Mike Adams was just a dummy. Well, he's playing instinctively. When the ball comes to you, you try and catch the ball. I mean, it would have been really tough.

[Andy Holloway]

Happens all the time.

[Mike Wright]

But. And I'm, I'm for the call for Sean Payton. It's fourth and one. You have one of the best offenses in the entire league. Maybe the play call wasn't my favorite, but it's. You get the first down, the game is done and you don't have to worry about Cam Newton, who played sensational.

[Andy Holloway]

There is no question that if Cam Newton and the Panthers had won that game, that that call would of course be their whole off season discussion. All right, let's go ahead and let's get into some more news.

[Jason Moore]

Weekly. Rewind.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, the Chiefs. Let's talk about some fantasy implications from them now leaving the playoffs. The rumors that are starting. Chiefs are open to trading Alex Smith. They just lost offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to the Bears, their new head coach. Congratulations to them. I think it's a good hire, but some change.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, certainly. Their assistant coach Brad Childress looks like he's going to retire. Has not been made official yet, but that's going to happen. And I think that it is a done deal that Alex Smith will be traded. This was his best season ever. So you're never going to be able to trade him for more than you can right now. And if you look at their cap situation, they. I think that was part of why they went after Mahomes and paid so much for this rookie quarterback was because they are not going to be able to afford to build the team the way they want with the current money invested. So you're going to clear a lot of money by trading Alex Smith. Free your team up to move towards the future. And you might get, in addition to just clearing that up, allowing you to move To Mahomes. What are you going to get a second? Can you get maybe a first or a second?

[Mike Wright]

Plus, I think it's going to be a second.

[Andy Holloway]

Is a. Is Arizona. Cleveland, New York?

[Jason Moore]

Buffalo.

[Andy Holloway]

Buffalo. Where's the best fantasy destination for dynasty owners of Alex Smith like myself?

[Mike Wright]

Fantasy place for Alex Smith. Oh, man.

[Jason Moore]

New York.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, maybe New York. I don't.

[Jason Moore]

It's.

[Mike Wright]

I know it sounds crazy every time you mentioned anything positive about the Cleveland Browns right now, but Alex Smith going to that team, Duke Johnson, that wide receiver core.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You got Corey Coleman.

[Mike Wright]

Coleman and Josh Gordon. And Rashard Higgins is a fine wide receiver. 3.

[Jason Moore]

It.

[Mike Wright]

It could turn around pretty quickly if Alex Smith was. Was over there being a game manager. I mean, think about how things went for the Browns with Kaiser's turnovers just absolutely destroying that team. You get Alex Smith in there, a guy who doesn't turn the ball over, that's a much different season.

[Andy Holloway]

They say Kaiser was deferral Cooper of the quarterback. Oh.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, sorry.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. So Matt Nagy's the new head coach in Chicago. This can't be worse than what we had with John Fox. You bring Nagy in, you let him tutor Mitchell Trubisky and company and you try to, you know, turn this thing around in Chicago as fast as possible.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm with Jason. I actually think the hire is good. I like bringing in. Get somebody who's not just a complete retread of a coach. You've already seen them fail miserably like Matt Nagy. The Chiefs offense was very successful. He's one of maybe the only coach, if I'm recalling correctly, that Andy Reid has actually given play calling duty to. That's how much he believed in Nagy. And the Andy Reid coaching tree kind of speaks for itself, the great philosophies. So I think this is a positive hire for the Bears.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, this is the McVeigh hire. Trying to. We've got Trubisky. We need to get away from the old school coach and get an offensive mind in who's young, who's, you know, given a chance with a quarterback. See if you have something there in Trubisky. He'll be really interesting. You're not going to draft Trubisky next year, but he'll be interesting to watch early on. The same way you didn't draft Goff this year, but you kept an eye on it and you go, he actually looks legit.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Kirk Cousins said he would sign his Tinder if the Redskins assigned him the franchise. Tag for a third year in a row.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

He would.

[Andy Holloway]

That's another way of saying I would accept $30 million.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

There was another report that came out. Jay Gruden wanting essentially to get the long term situation at quarterback figured out. Kind of putting the pressure out there, whether that's to ownership, whatever. We need to make a decision on Kirk Cousins. We need to either cut ties if he's not the future or get him locked up. So we're not talking about this forever. Obviously huge fantasy implications if he ends up in another on another franchise. You know, we're going to talk a lot about free agency. We're going to talk a lot about coaching changes and other coaching changes. The Patriots defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia, obviously they're still in the playoffs, but he's expected to become the next head coach of the Lions.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So we have dedicated shows once these things are finalized, to talk through the implications. Today's about the truth of the wide receiver position. So I don't want to linger there too long. And then Pat Shermer, Vikings offensive coordinator. He had been a head coach for Cleveland. There's talk of him bringing in Case Keenum wherever he goes potentially. So that could be an interesting thing to follow as well. Any other news that you guys want to discuss before we get into the truth?

[Jason Moore]

The only news I would say is as you were describing, Kirk Cousins situation. It dawned on me that like, I've ran through all the different scenarios. Where is he going to end up? It has never once crossed my mind that he could actually maybe sign a long term contract with the Redskins. I just feel like they hate him so much. Yeah. That they're. They're not going to commit multiple years.

[Mike Wright]

Do they hate him or is he willing to sign that contract?

[Jason Moore]

Maybe.

[Andy Holloway]

His situation is strangely like Tyrod Taylor's has been in the sense that, like, it seems like all those around you in the organization don't necessarily want to see great success from you.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But they should because they want to win. It's like they only want to win with a certain player. Brooks is not. You agree with that? Brooks. Yeah. It's weird, right? Very. Because I would just want to win. I don't care who it's with.

[Jason Moore]

At least with Chief Cousins, though, the.

[Andy Holloway]

Chiefs accepted winning with Alex Smith. Look at the Jaguars.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's a really good point.

[Andy Holloway]

The Jaguars, at the end of this season, they, you know, super bowl champion Blake Bortles.

[Mike Wright]

I got a big snake. Oh, no. Oh, no.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what's funny is we much like what you just said about Kirk Cousins. Brooks, you're still here in the studio. You need to timestamp much like we said with Kirk Cousins. You didn't consider the fact that they could potentially sign him to a long term deal? Anybody considering the fact Jacksonville and Tennessee could be playing for a chance to go to the Super Bowl?

[Mike Wright]

Please.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Mike Wright]

Please.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, that would be.

[Andy Holloway]

All you need is. All you need is a road victory.

[Jason Moore]

From each of, from each against the assumed victors of the Patriots and Steelers.

[Andy Holloway]

That's all you need. All right, let's talk about the truth.

[Mike Wright]

You want answers?

[Jason Moore]

I think I'm entitled. You want answers?

[Andy Holloway]

I want the truth.

[Jason Moore]

You can't handle the truth.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. Not even talking about Eric Decker.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. He's not in the list. How interesting. He did make a big play.

[Jason Moore]

Big play after a big drop.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what he's known for. All right, where do we want to start, guys? We're going to top. We're going to be going from number one as far as we can go on today's show and then we'll finish up wide receivers on the next one. We need to kind of define what we're talking about when we talk about consistency. And so that's where we're going to start. We're going to start with talking about DeAndre Hopkins, but all of these wide receivers, and I'll give you a chance to elaborate too, Jason, but all these wide receivers, we've, we've looked at the numbers, the game logs, the performance is week to week, and here's a couple things we need to say out of the gate. One, we're looking at consistency in the games that they played. So we're not holding it against players that they missed a game here or there. We're saying when you started them in your fantasy lineup, how consistent were they, how consistently did they give you a great game? Now what's a great game, Jason?

[Jason Moore]

So what we've done this year is we've kind of tried to improve the process to make sure we're. It's more accurate to what's really helping and hurting. And we changed from, you know, what used to be like a top five performance to actually how many points you're scoring. And we put the threshold here for the great game that, that real weak winning. Yes, exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

Top five type of performance.

[Jason Moore]

On average, we put that at 20 points. And all of this is half point PPR scoring. Usually when you score 20 plus points, you're going to be in the top five at the position. But there's certain weeks. You know, you look at week six this past year, Mike Evans was a top five wide receiver. Even though he only scored 17 points, he didn't win you the week. That was just the. There's bye weeks involved, not as many players playing, so it's easier to get a little bit higher up there.

[Andy Holloway]

So essentially we're saying we're looking at on average where they would have finished. We're basing it off points, not on where they actually finished in the ranking.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. And then the next category we have are good games, really solid games. That's going to be on average about the top 24 wide receivers. But that will be any game over 12 points in half point scoring.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And then essentially we did the last category is bust games. And that is where you would have finished on average outside the top 50 at your position. Obviously, for these players of this caliber, that's a very relevant stat because that. That not only it's not a null situation, it's a hurt your team situation.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So there is this in between area where we're not really factoring in where you scored, you know, around nine or 10 points. Those, you know, those games happen for everybody. We're just looking at were you really helpful or did you really hurt my team? And then we have kind of created a custom score based on taking those, you know, 12 or more games plus 20 or more games, and then subtracting out the busts and figuring out a rank for who are truly in 2017, the most consistent, what are their consistency scores and ranking them top to bottom. So we'll tell you who's the best, who's the worst Amongst the top 24 wide receivers. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And then Brooks hooked up. Just kind of interesting, the difference in fantasy points between the wide receiver 1 to the wide receiver 5, huge gap, 54 points on the year. That's a pretty, pretty significant game.

[Mike Wright]

The big guys, they always come through with monster performances because, like I said, but the difference between wide receiver one and wide receiver five over 54 points. Then you go wide receiver six through 24, that's also a difference of 54 points. And then the difference between wide receiver threes is about 19 points. And then the other guys through wide receiver four, you're talking about 40 points right around there.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just interesting.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I'll start it off here. Before we jump into Deandre Hopkins, just wanted to point out this. Wide receivers as a whole, this was. This was a down year. If you felt like your wide receivers weren't scoring as many points. That's because they weren't. You had. This year we had five wide receivers with 150 plus targets compared to nine last year. Five wide receivers with 100 plus receptions compared to three. So that actually went up. Here's the big difference. Only 13 wide receivers had thousand yard, thousand receiving yard seasons compared to 23 last year.

[Jason Moore]

13.

[Mike Wright]

That is correct. There was only two wide receivers that had more than 10 had 10 or more touchdowns compared to five last year. So scoring across the board for wide receivers did go down.

[Jason Moore]

Wow. I guess that, that's, that's crazy. That makes a little bit of sense if you consider the fact that quarterbacks. So this year we didn't have a single quarterback with 600 or more attempts. I mean, last year you had.

[Mike Wright]

Last year you had six. I have those numbers too, Jay, if you're wanting those numbers.

[Jason Moore]

So I want to hear that.

[Mike Wright]

Last year we had six quarterbacks over 600 attempts. Last year we had four quarterbacks over 400 completions. This year, zero for both of those categories, we only had eight quarterbacks throw for over 4,000 yards. And we only had three quarterbacks with over 30 passing touchdowns. So there's. And I looked up just kind of scoring as a whole. This was the first year since 2008 that we didn't have a team averaging over 30 points a game. Now, I mean, the Rams were very close. We were 29.9. And then when you average all the teams scoring, it's. In recent years it's been about almost 23 points a game for everyone. This year it was under 22.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's interesting.

[Mike Wright]

So scoring just as a whole was.

[Jason Moore]

So the question is, is, is this an outlier or a trend? Is it slow the game down on the ball more or is this just you also?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, I have to say this. I know it happens every year, but maybe if it's a little bit more severe this year. But no David Johnson, no Oda Beckham, Aaron Rodgers, right. Aaron Rodgers got hurt. Andrew Luck didn't play. You're missing some top end talent. Certainly, you know, someone like Ty Hilton didn't have somebody to throw him the ball. It was.

[Jason Moore]

When you look at the, you know, we brought up the difference between the wide receiver 1 and the wide receiver 5. When you lose those top options, you're losing points, you know, in the NFL and in fantasy. So all interesting stuff.

[Andy Holloway]

And number one is.

[Jason Moore]

And number one is coming in a second. But first we want to thank today's sponsor, RX Bar, a new sponsor of the show. I've had Rx bars for years. They are a whole food protein bar. They're made with a few simple clean ingredients which all serve a purpose. You know, egg whites for protein, dates to bind, nuts for texture, stuff like that. And in the interest of full transparency, all the core ingredients, they're labeled right on the front of the package. No BS here. You've probably seen these packages. You know what I'm talking about.

[Andy Holloway]

We got them in our kitchen right now.

[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

And I'll just throw in. We're talking about consistency. The consistency of those bars is great.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a question mark. Sometimes with different protein bars. Those are great.

[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

All right. The number one fantasy wide receiver on the season was DeAndre Hopkins.

[Jason Moore]

But Andy, just because he's number one does not mean he was the number one most consistent.

[Andy Holloway]

The number one most consistent wide receiver on the season was Deandre Hopkins.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, he didn't play Week 17, but he ended the year with 96 receptions for 1,700 or I'm sorry, 1,378 yards and 13 touchdowns on 175 targets. Boy, he was unbelievable year. When you consider and factor in the quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Situation, that target to reception number is not generally what you want to see. I mean, you, you want to see.

[Andy Holloway]

174 targets, but you'd be thinking one, oh, 110, hopefully.

[Jason Moore]

And yeah, the reality is DeAndre Hopkins was the only player this year. If you're talking why is he number one in consistency, the only player that did not have a single bust week. He did not score seven or fewer points in one single game that he played this year.

[Andy Holloway]

And that is even with bad quarterbacks against Jacksonville or Arizona or Baltimore, hard matchups, bad quarterbacks.

[Jason Moore]

He had enough targets, enough volume. He was there. Coming into next year, you get, I mean, when he had Watson, he was unbelievable to the point four years old, you might go, would, should Hopkins go above Antonio Brown next year?

[Mike Wright]

It's, it'll be an interesting question and I think it's a fair question to bring up DeAndre Hopkins, also negative 1.3 points against top 16 pass defenses, meaning he's, he scores, you know, 1.3 fewer.

[Jason Moore]

But which is, that's, that's close to nothing.

[Mike Wright]

That's nothing that's negligible in this area. And two and a half points more at home. Also negative. Very, very small amount. So Hopkins was just consistent. I mean, he was smooth. He was smooth as butter.

[Jason Moore]

I like it.

[Andy Holloway]

Still young. 80% of his games were classified as good games, which means he will be at that 12 above 12 point fantasy mark. Like Jason said, zero bus games. And then he was considered quote, great. 27% of his starts. That's that top five type of weak winning week. So he contributed in that way that.

[Jason Moore]

Is almost, he's almost exactly double what the average for. If you look at the top 24 wide receivers, he's almost double what the average for having those great week winning performances were at 28%. And he is less than half of those type of weeks than the clear winner of great games. The number two wide receiver finisher on the, on the year, Antonio Brown is a freak.

[Andy Holloway]

And real quick, before we jump to Antonio Brown, I do want to say this. I think DeAndre Hopkins will represent the best top wide receiver value next year. I don't see him going ahead of Antonio Brown. I don't see him going ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. I don't see him going ahead of Julio Jones.

[Mike Wright]

I bet he goes in front of both of those guys.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think so. I don't think so. And you could be right. And maybe because of how he finished that year, he will. But you still have pedigree multi year runs by those other wide receivers. I see reasons why people might question it. And there are. Look, you cannot just give him these numbers for the rest of his career. You had Will Fuller who was basically turned irrelevant because of the lack of quarterback play, you know, other weapons around and Lamar Miller struggled. The defense wasn't very good. There were some things that forced 175 targets. DeAndre Hopkins way deficits in lots of games. That being said, I still think he'll be the best value amongst those guys. But maybe that's only the difference between the number two pick and the number six pick. I don't know what that is. So Antonio Brown, Jason, the number two fantasy finisher and the number two most consistent. He did have a bust percentage of 21%. Surprising. Yeah, he had a great percentage. That is mind blowing.

[Jason Moore]

One of those busts was the game where he played and got injured. So you know those are going to happen and those hurt your fantasy team. But certainly not at you know, fault of Antonio Brown for, for hurting his was his calf. But yeah, 57% of his games were the weak winning more than 20 points. That number is. When you draft Antonio Brown like I would, it's no question to me. Assuming Big Ben is back next year, which is definitely a question. If he is back, it's Antonio Brown because Hopkins was great, very consistent. But to have those weak winning weeks like Antonio Brown gives you more than half of the games that are played is asinine. Again, the other top 24 wide receivers, they only give you those games 14% of the time. And that's just the top 24 finishers.

[Andy Holloway]

And this is more than half of the games. Not to mention more receptions than Hopkins, more yards than Hopkins the difference, the difference in finish was down to the 13 touchdowns by Hopkins, nine for Antonio Brown. We know how touchdowns, those are hard to just replicate year over year or in Julio Jones case, hard to get at all. But Mike, what else can you say about Antonio Brown? Would you take him over Hopkins in a redraft?

[Mike Wright]

No, I'm with Jason that if Big Ben is back, Antonio Brown will be my number one. It was in 14 games, right.

[Andy Holloway]

So.

[Mike Wright]

And that includes the injury game, of course. I mean even if he plays 15, I bet he is back at 10 plus touchdowns. So negative 3.3 versus top defenses. So no big deal. He was five points better at home.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's the only.

[Andy Holloway]

But that's a pretty big margin compared to the rest of these guys.

[Jason Moore]

It's a big margin for your home road splits because we talk about Big Ben not as good on the road. But when your average is as high as his is, it's like oh, five points less. Still a great game.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, exactly.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I think we're. We don't need to linger on Antonio Brown. Go ahead, draft him.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's give some credit to Keenan Allen, the number three fantasy wide receiver on the season. Incredible end to the year one. Mike has taken a sip. I think he's trying to get me to give him praise over his love for.

[Mike Wright]

I'm here for this conversation, fellas.

[Andy Holloway]

Keenan Allen. Now look, what, what can you say? Keenan Allen, 102 receptions, 1393 yards and six touchdowns on 159 targets. His bust percentage only 6% of the time. Now he did spend a good portion of the beginning of the year between the bust and good, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Rating where he was just lingering there.

[Jason Moore]

8.7 points, 8.1. Another 8.7. Those didn't, those did not help you really win that week, however, from weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Sorry, just a pitch from weeks five. So 5, 6, 7, 8 and 10. So the buy was in there that stretch. He Never finished above 30 at the wide receiver position. So he had a dead zone, a five game dead zone that made even the most stalwart of Keenan Allen supporters, Mike Waver and his knees begin to wobble.

[Mike Wright]

It did. But luckily when I fell down, Keenan Allen was there to catch me with.

[Andy Holloway]

His, his very secure, very rejuvenated kidneys.

[Jason Moore]

Here was the nice thing is that those weeks were very down. Like you said, he didn't finish in the top 30 at wide receiver. However, you know, as a Keenan Allen owner and I had a lot of stock in him this year. You were fine on Those weeks when he would put up five for 60, you weren't thrilled. You didn't get, you know, a monster game. But he had enough volume in the targets where he didn't completely crap your team and you know, throw up those Des Bryant disappearing games.

[Mike Wright]

And I'll say this as well, considering that Keenan Allen had played nine football games in the past two years, it took some time for Phil Rivers to remember. Oh yes, Kenan Allen is in fact a great wide receiver. And I need to throw him the ball 10 plus times a game, 25% of his games.

[Andy Holloway]

And he played all 16, which is more than the top two guys in this list can say, but 25% of his team.

[Mike Wright]

So the most Keenan Allen can ever.

[Andy Holloway]

Say were weak winning performances. Number two against Buffalo, followed by four and four against Dallas and Cleveland and ending the year number one against Oakland. Impressive.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Where does he go next year?

[Mike Wright]

It's more of the same. Keenan Allen. The only knock for Keenan Allen is injury history, which nice to put it.

[Andy Holloway]

16 game season under your belt.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's. I don't think that's going to change people's minds of the injury history. He was still a pretty highly drafted wide receiver. Maybe he moves up into the back of the second round because if he gives you 16 games, he will give you numbers similar to this. Maybe the yardage comes down a little bit, but you're still talking 100 plus receptions easily in my opinion.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. This last year the reason I had him a lot was because I could grab him in the fourth round.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And that's great. I think Keenan belongs in that second round conversation, maybe even near the top of the second round and I'd be happy to grab him.

[Mike Wright]

And just to add in, he also has negligible defense and home road splits.

[Andy Holloway]

Julio Jones was the fourth ranked fantasy wide receiver, but he felt much more like his consistency rank, which was number eight. Finished 88 for 1400 plus yards and three touchdowns on 149 targets. And when you look at Julio's season, what, what blows me away the most is you'd never had back to back weeks where he was inside the top 12. You never had two weeks in a row. And so you'd get that little.

[Mike Wright]

That's bananas.

[Andy Holloway]

You'd get the burst. Week two, okay. Or maybe week seven or against Carolina or when he was number one against Tampa, you'd have these games and you go, here he comes, here comes Julio. And then the next week, you know, he had, he had four games this year where he was outside the top 38 for Julio Jones. I mean, his bus percentage was 19%. His. He was good 44% of the time and he was great only 13% of the time.

[Mike Wright]

I have an idea for Atlanta. Play Julio Jones Only 50% of the time. Let him sit every other week. Let him re. He needs to rejuvenate, you're saying, so.

[Andy Holloway]

You can start somebody else.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Mohammed Sanu.

[Mike Wright]

So I can start someone else. And then they get that big game because he's only got the energy for every other week.

[Andy Holloway]

Minus 5.5 points per game against top 16 defense.

[Mike Wright]

That's not what you want to see from.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a pretty big. Yeah, that's a pretty big disparity, Julio. And now that doesn't mean Julio was struggling against that coverage. Fantasy wise it does, but it means that part of it is games, you know, they seem to go away from him when they have a matchup that they're worried about.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And another part of that number so that you don't worry too much because Julio was still. Was still very good. You know, number four, number eight. Inconsistency is nothing to be too sad about. But that split between top defenses and bottom defenses, part of that is really skewed because of the 46.9 points he put up against the bottom defense in Tampa Bay. So that's going to. I mean, you can't really fault him for being too good against bad defense.

[Mike Wright]

That's a great point.

[Andy Holloway]

Larry Fitzgerald was the number five wide receiver. This one was fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

This one was really interesting to me.

[Andy Holloway]

Finished the season with 109 receptions, 1156 yards and six touchdowns on 162 targets. And we talked about it all through the year. Larry, at home.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Seven and a half points better at home. Big number, incredible difference. His consistency rank 13.

[Jason Moore]

First wide receiver here in our list to not be in the top 12 most consistent. And that might. That was really surprising to me because you're talking about a guy who had over 100 receptions. Usually those PPR type guys like we'll eventually here get over to Jarvis Landry, you know those.

[Mike Wright]

Whoa, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just saying. Well, he's a wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

We'll talk about how to run a countdown.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just saying he's in the top 24. So.

[Andy Holloway]

Top hundred. He's in the top hundred.

[Jason Moore]

But Larry, he really did have those. I mean, he was boom or bust to a degree. He was, you know, he didn't kill you that often. So his bust rate was 25% a quarter of the games he really killed you. Thankfully with him, you kind of could see some of those games to sit him. He was on the road, you know.

[Andy Holloway]

Where backup quarterbacks really struggle. On the road, on the road. So when you have. I almost said Skelton, my goodness.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, no.

[Andy Holloway]

When you have, don't do that. Don't go back to the past. When you have, you know, Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbard on the road with cars and Palmer going down, that had to have added to that disparity.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. So he had 25%. The other quarter of his game were those league winning over 20 point games. So basically 50% of his games were just negligible. And I will take 50% negligible, 25%, you know, high games and 25% bust.

[Mike Wright]

I was going to say that you look at the percentage of his great to good and they're actually very close. So I mean it's everything he got from, from Larry, when he gave you a good game, it was not just good, it was generally a great game.

[Andy Holloway]

A lot of question marks on to whether he'll return for another season in 2018, the Cardinals. Carson Palmer is retired. Bruce Arians has retired.

[Mike Wright]

And shaking up my Kirk Cousins pheromones.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, whether it's Kirk Cousins, Alex Smith, Case Keenum.

[Mike Wright]

This is for you, Larry.

[Jason Moore]

If they get another quarterback, Larry will be back.

[Andy Holloway]

As opposed to not bringing one in.

[Jason Moore]

At all, I'm saying. As opposed to. If they draft a rookie in the middle of the first that they hope they can develop, that's when he could. That's when he might go, you know, I don't, I don't want to do this, but if they bring in, that's.

[Andy Holloway]

When you see the ghost of John Skelton.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. If they bring in a vet like you know what you just named, Sam Bradford, even maybe Ted Bridgewater, then Brett Favre. Oh, he's still got it. He's still got the cannon.

[Andy Holloway]

What about Josh McCown?

[Jason Moore]

No, that is interesting because you know, he played.

[Andy Holloway]

What about Ryan Fitzpatrick?

[Jason Moore]

No, definitely not.

[Mike Wright]

I just like Josh McCown that he can finish where he started.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh my gosh. Back in the 70s.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Michael Thomas, number six on the ranks. Number six on the consistency ranks.

[Mike Wright]

That's how you do it. Michael Thomas.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, this was a funny year for Michael Thomas, but the numbers bear out how it feels.

[Mike Wright]

Just wait till you hear the great and bust percentage.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he was 104 for 12, 45 and 5. Nothing to be upset about with those numbers. 149 targets no great defense splits. No great home road splits. Actually a little worse at home, which is strange. But he was great 6% of the times. He busted 6% of the time. And he lived in the middle. He lived in the middle.

[Mike Wright]

He was wide receiver 6. Consistency rank 6. 6% of his games were great. 6% of his games were bust. No, I'm not marking the beast because we're going quattro.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, all right. We're safe.

[Mike Wright]

We made it. But Michael Thomas.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but that's, that's one game, by the way. 6% is one great game. There's one bus game. And everything else he was just kind.

[Mike Wright]

Of like, there's another wide receiver we're going to talk about a little bit later that you think this guy, I paid up the draft pick for him and he was a bust for my team. And yet he. You're staring at him as a wide receiver one. And that's why Michael Thomas felt like a bus. Six percent of his games were great. He never carried your team, but 50% good, that's. That's tough to do.

[Jason Moore]

I'll say this, looking into it, and I know who you're going to talk about in a little bit because it's really surprising, but there are those players, like a lot of people that drafted Michael Thomas, were disappointed in Michael Thomas. You shouldn't be. You definitely shouldn't have been for where you got him. He performed. He did enough. But it does say. This is what it says to me. It says that when you're playing fantasy football, you need to put a little bit of extra weight on the ability to carry, the ability to have those Antonio Brown weak winning games. It's just difficult because you don't want a guy that can only do that or go away.

[Mike Wright]

That's why we talk about balancing your roster when you're drafting.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, but up at the beginning, because there's just. There's not that many people that can give you any weak winning games. So when you're in that first round, I think that's the issue is if you're drafting a guy in the first round, you have to get those weak winning performances.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's what I agree with that. I mean, we're going to talk about Jarvis Landry. He's got the same amount of great games. Jarvis Landry, that's the problem. You drafted Michael Thomas thinking you might get, you know, four or five week winning performances. He gave you the same as Jarvis Landry, and you come to expect Jarvis Landry to actually be a more functional Wide receiver too on your fantasy roster.

[Mike Wright]

We did see a complete shift though of the New Orleans Saints offense. That was not, I don't say it was definitely not expected.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

But we did know that he was going to have to step into the wide receiver one role. But that wasn't in lieu of Brandon Cooks who made the big plays. And a lot of people just wanted to take Brandon Cooks and the big plays and just give them to Michael Thomas and we didn't get those.

[Jason Moore]

Ray.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, Brandon, but I mean over 100 receptions, over 1200 yards. The issue was the touchdowns of. We did not see Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara Super Camario becoming the go to for the New Orleans Saints offense. That's the difference. Well, you didn't get a 5,000 yard season from Drew Brees because they didn't need it.

[Andy Holloway]

But shouldn't that be a lesson to us as fantasy prognosticators that when you're in the off season and these things are laid out before you, there are very. Look, if the most valuable thing that you have when you talk about any of these wide receivers is multi year stretches of productivity because you have guys like Michael Thomas who had one good year as a rookie and you cannot perfectly project what that team is going to do, what the offense is going to do. Sean Payton. No. Brandon Cooks. When you have consistency from a team perspective, not just a player, quarterback, offensive coordinator, scheme, all that stuff that you get with Antonio Brown, that you get with players that have done it multiple years, that's when you know we didn't know. Like you said, to be fair.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I'm saying.

[Andy Holloway]

We didn't know. But we didn't know. That's the point.

[Mike Wright]

But it was, it wasn't something that you could have projected. I mean, yeah, you can.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, my point is you can. Can't you project that you don't have two years of consistent performances back to back.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, but you can say it's the same head coach, same offensive philosophy, same quarterback. So that, that's why I think it's, it's not. I would not beat myself up if I drafted Michael Thomas and felt like I made a mistake.

[Andy Holloway]

No. Number six. Number six. So Jarvis Landry was number seven in half point scoring. Felt like about number, not seven. And yet to me, and yet was the fourth ranked fourth most consistent fantasy wide receiver. One hundred twelve receptions, one hundred and sixty targets, under a thousand yards, nine touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

That's the, that's the big one.

[Andy Holloway]

That one saved the season, so to speak. Different quarterbacks than we expected Tannehill going down, Jay Cutler coming in only great 6% of the time, but good 63% of the time. So 63% of his games he was in that top 24 category.

[Jason Moore]

See, I actually think, forget, forget fantasy. I think Jarvis Landry is a top notch wide receiver in real life. I think he is an elite level talent and had bad quarterback play, has had mediocre quarterback play for a long time. But he, if you look back at this year where he was drafted as he kept slipping down in drafts because devonte Parker coming up, I think he was one of the better picks this year. He got the touchdowns to help him out. He was super consistent. And for a guy that you're going to get in those kind of early middle rounds, what more can you ask for? You're not. If you look at who is able to put up the weak winning performances, they all go, you know, at the, in that first, second round. So when you're looking later in your draft, I think I'm looking for a guy like Jarvis Landry who finished as the fourth most consistent wide receiver. Really didn't have many games that killed you. Even if you go higher and you say okay, you know, like a wide receiver 30 or 40, he still only had four games on the season where he wasn't a wide receiver 30, that's, that's a really low percent for wide receivers. So if I'm plugging a guy like that in as my second wide receiver, use him in a flex. I love it.

[Andy Holloway]

As long as you're paying second wide receiver price, which you, you did this last year, you did this year. He's the guy that you love having in the lineup. Now he's a free agent.

[Mike Wright]

See, the price for him is a.

[Andy Holloway]

Big question and there are those that want to believe he's going to be the next chain moving wide receiver in New England, that he's going to be picked up and signed by the Patriots. The most recent report that I have from late December was that, look, Jarvis Landry and Miami, they've exchanged contract proposals kind of at a standstill. Got in a big fight with Kenyon Drake. Kind of seems like Adam Gaze is talking about him in a negative light in the sense that hard to control him. He has some of the same things going on that Odell Beckham Jr. Has had going in New York. His good buddy, plays with fire. Love him. Agree with Jason, great player. Not sure he goes somewhere and puts up better numbers than what he had in Miami.

[Mike Wright]

He sent him to New York. I Mean that with, with Odell.

[Jason Moore]

With Odell.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think he will be back with Miami.

[Andy Holloway]

I agree because that's where I would handicap.

[Mike Wright]

He's a second round pick. So this guy and he has vastly outperformed his second round draft stock. He deserves to be paid and he is going to take nothing less than getting paid. So I don't think Miami is going to give him that contract. I'm not sure where he will, where he will end up but I'm with Jason that I think Driver Slandry is one of the better wide receivers in the league.

[Jason Moore]

The one nice thing I'll say about him leaving and going to another team is the fact that we have seen Jarvis Landry with different head coaches and different quarterbacks always be utilized the same way. So I think if he goes to another team we can have a little bit more confidence that yeah, that coach is probably going to do the same thing. Pepper him with targets, keep them on these short routes, use them the way that he's made to be used.

[Mike Wright]

Dynasty football. Dynasty fantasy football. Question here with Jarvis Landry. I know we like, we like him. We like the receiver. If you had the opportunity at this time, would you be buying or selling Jarvis with the unknown moving forward I.

[Andy Holloway]

To piggyback and comment on what you said, Jay. I'd be selling him because I think that while you're right a coach is going to use him the way that he meant to be used. There's every chance that he goes to a team that has a better wide receiver core than what he has in Miami. There's never been a competing force. Parker's never become that. Stills has never been volume. If he went to a place hypothetically New York or any place with a, with an outside one that actually receives target volume, that would be my concern about these. Because he's needed 100 plus receptions to be this kind of guy or I mean nine touchdowns. I don't know how much you can count on that from his size. He's normally a six touchdown guy. So give him 95 and six and he's not in this category anymore.

[Jason Moore]

Right, that's. That's fair. That's fair. You know, because of his age, I don't think I would buy him right now because right now owners aren't scared of him leaving. I don't think the we're into next year's offseason mentality but I would wait a couple months if he leaves. If you get scared. He's still only 25 years. I think he's good. So I would be willing to buy him.

[Andy Holloway]

If he got signed by New England, for example, you'd be able to trade him at the Brandon Cooks premium that you had this offseason. And he might not be as good in New England as he was in Miami. From a fantasy perspective, people have been trying to give West Welker's numbers to players for five years.

[Mike Wright]

So if you Jarvis Landry put him in that Edelman role, I know it's 200%.

[Andy Holloway]

This is what people have been saying forever.

[Mike Wright]

Buy him.

[Andy Holloway]

Tyree Kill, number eight finished the season at number eight. Consistency ranked number nine. Tyree Kill in fit through 15 games he was rested in week 17. 75 receptions, 1183 yards and seven touchdowns. Boy, those numbers, they remind me of Vincent Jackson's numbers back when he was catching pass a little bit more.

[Mike Wright]

Little higher touchdowns though I think he's higher on the receptions.

[Andy Holloway]

Who is Tyree Kill wasn't no V jacks was a 67 to 75 guy, but he also had 59 rushing yards. Tyree Kill was interesting. Now that the thing that blows my mind now if you've this is confirmed, he's negative 10 points at home.

[Mike Wright]

Well, because he just, he was. His monster games all came on the road. You know, week one against New England when he was 133 and one. Week three against the Chargers, five for 77 and one against Oakland on the road 125 and one. In all his monster games, the jets on the road 185 and two. That just skewed his numbers. For, for whatever reason he, him and Alex Smith would. They were roommates, I guess they would. They'd get together, they'd play some spades and then they.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what roommates do.

[Mike Wright]

Maybe.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know in the NFL.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm not a spades player but. And then they'd throw, then you throw them touchdowns. So Tyreek Hill on the road was magical.

[Jason Moore]

This, this year. He was one of the, one of the things that I really liked about having Tyreek this year. We're talking about that this, this episode. But he was able to provide those weak Winning one in every five games this year for Tyreek was a put your team on the back win you the week over 20 points type of performance. You know. And even though he was. He seemed like he was up and down, you know, because he, he did go back and forth. Literally. It was. We made jokes at the beginning of the year of the year. It was like good game down game, good Game down game. The down games weren't, you know, zero games. You know they his down games. He had you know what two full. He had four, four bust games which is pretty normal for a top 24 wide receiver. But he had a lot of those every other week. Games that were around, you know the eight nine point thresholds that you can buy your time. Buy your time. If you've got a guy that can have those monster weeks when their down weeks are more around the eight points versus the three points.

[Andy Holloway]

If you are going to go running back early next year, do you want Tyreek is your one with Pat Mahomes maybe being a quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

That'S risky. It could work out because Mahomes, at least in college he has that the gunslinger a little bit of Brett Favre.

[Andy Holloway]

Great deep ball but really, really strong.

[Mike Wright]

Arm so that it could be a perfect match.

[Andy Holloway]

It could be interesting.

[Jason Moore]

I would be fine with that. And it's not just because of the deep arm, but because of Tyreek. Speed just beats guys. I mean a lot of Alex Smith's, you know, 40 plus yard touchdowns, they were 10, 12, 15 yard throws to Tyreek who you know went lightning speed after he caught the ball. I think Mahomes could do that also.

[Mike Wright]

It is he scored once at home. It took until week 14 for him to score a touchdown at home.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's talk about Marvin Jones, the number nine fantasy wide receiver this year. Marvin Jones with the same amount of great games as Julio Jones. Because that's what we expected. Consistency though he ranked 18th in consistency. So he really. He had the up and down type of performances. 61 receptions is really why that is. You know, when you only have 61 catches, which is half of a Jarvis Landry pretty much. But you get 1100 yards, nine touchdowns. He basically was a boom bus per reception. Yeah, boom bust got 18 yards per reception.

[Mike Wright]

That's DeSean Jackson.

[Andy Holloway]

He wins at the point of attack. He wins on the deep ball and he showed the ability to do that all year long. So whether the fantasy numbers were consistent from week to week, his ability to catch that deep ball, it persisted through the season. What do you really make of Marvin Jones year and where would you want him next year? I mean his defense, I'm sorry against defenses that were in the top 16. He actually played very well. Yeah, he has no evidence was wide receiver 15 golden Tate and that's just.

[Mike Wright]

That's who the Detroit Lions are. They can't run. Maybe they invest in a running back in the offensive line and we see some changes to that. But I mean, this is like the Saints, right? Yeah. Amir Abdullah. Yeah, Pour now for my homie Marvin Jones. You know, he's. He should be a middle round wide receiver. I don't know, head to head if I'd rather have Golden Tate or Marvin Jones. I mean, we mentioned it. Tate was wide receiver 15. So clearly Marvin finished ahead of him. But I think I might take the. A little bit. Tate might be safer. Except peeking at maybe he's not.

[Andy Holloway]

I would take the five guys after Marvin Jones in this list over Marvin Jones.

[Jason Moore]

I would as well. I think the reason who.

[Andy Holloway]

I will not say the reason we.

[Jason Moore]

Like Marvin Jones this year is because of where he was drafted. Because yes, you know, he was. He was the ninth wide receiver on the year, but again, he was 18th for consistency. Now, hey, that's still a top 20 guy. But you're, you're. If he's drafted next year as a, you know, top 15 wide receiver, which I think he might sneak up to that ability because he's got the big game potential and people want, you know, to swing for the fences. I don't want to spend higher capital on Marvin Jones who does have the, you know, because he's 18 yards of reception.

[Mike Wright]

He.

[Jason Moore]

He's not a big volume guy. And so you have a lot of games where maybe, maybe it wasn't a complete and utter bust, but it just. Too many, too many games that were poor.

[Mike Wright]

And the smooth routes. Yeah, the smooth routes are coming.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we're going to round out this episode with number 10 on the list.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

Adam Thielen. Oh, the 10th ranked wide receiver and the 10th most consistent. Started the year on fire. Didn't end it that way, but 91 receptions for 1200 yards and four touchdowns, 143 targets across. You know, the Bradford Keenum experiment. What do you make of this year from Adam Thielen? I mean, I know we loved him. He was a UDK feature for us. But you got to be happy with number 10 here.

[Mike Wright]

You got to be happy with him. I agree. He was a late round steal. His splits are basically don't exist. It was. You could play him in any particular matchup, but he was busty in the wrong spots. And that was.

[Jason Moore]

What does that mean?

[Mike Wright]

You know what I mean? The final.

[Jason Moore]

Do not know what you mean.

[Andy Holloway]

Busty in the wrong spot.

[Mike Wright]

That's the final three weeks of the season. 30 yards, 24 yards.

[Andy Holloway]

I used to say that about John Candy.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man, why you gotta pick on John Candy? I love it.

[Mike Wright]

I mean. Oh, moving on. We are buffoons.

[Andy Holloway]

I should have said Andy Reid.

[Mike Wright]

You should have gone with Jason Moore.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's not nice. Rip John Candy and Jason Moore in the same sentence. Congrats, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

30Yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Hashtag life goal.

[Jason Moore]

Not the first time, won't be the last.

[Mike Wright]

30 yards, 24 yards, 61 yards. The final three weeks of the season.

[Andy Holloway]

And what was it? I mean, was it just game flow, a healthy stuff and Diggs? I mean, we missed digs for a good part of the. Part of the season.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's one of them. I would, you know, just factor in. It was against Green Bay on the road. It was freezing. It was kind of a strange game. That was the 16 to 0. But right before that at home against the Bengals, 3 for 30. That one was extremely, extremely surprising.

[Andy Holloway]

Adam Thielen, 50% good games, 31% bust, no splits to mention, and a heck of a year. So he's going to finish up this first truth episode. We'll be back on Tuesday, sorry, on Thursday with the second half of the wide receiver Truth episode. Hopefully this information was helpful and we'll talk to you soon. Make sure you check out jointhefoot.com our fantasy football community. Come hang out with us. Get an extra episode every week. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the ffballers.