Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Bounce Backs, Busts, and Mailbag

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast: "Bounce Backs, Busts, and Mailbag"
Episode Release Date: April 16, 2015

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the upcoming fantasy football season. They explore potential player breakouts, identify likely draft busts, and answer listener questions to aid fantasy managers in making informed decisions.

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Introduction

The episode kicks off with the hosts re-establishing their rapport and outlining the show's agenda. Andy Holloway sets the stage by mentioning the key segments: news and notes, bounce backs, busts, and a mailbag section where they address listener inquiries.

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News and Notes

Sammy Watkins' Training Camp Status
Andy excitedly shares that Sammy Watkins is expected to be ready for training camp. He remarks, “Sammy Watkins is going to be ready for training camp because I've made a couple of water bets already this off season around Sammy Watkins” (03:01). The trio discusses Watkins' resilience despite last year's hip surgery and injuries, debating his potential for a strong comeback.

Adrian Peterson's Reinstatement
A significant portion of the discussion centers around Adrian Peterson's possible reinstatement into the NFL. Mike Wright expresses optimism, while Jason Moore criticizes the NFL's handling of the situation, labeling it "absolute foolishness" (04:19).

Greg Jennings and Steven Ridley Updates
The hosts touch upon Greg Jennings potentially signing with the New Orleans Saints, delving into his age and draft value. Andy puzzledly says, “How old is Greg Jennings? I thought I would have guessed” (05:30). Additionally, they highlight Steven Ridley's minimal guaranteed contract with the Jets, suggesting uncertainty about his role (07:05).

Partnership with Audible.com
The podcast announces a partnership with Audible.com, offering listeners a free audiobook as a thank-you for their support. Andy enthusiastically encourages listeners to take advantage of the deal: “Grab Fantasy Life by Matthew Berry. Go grab Game of Thrones” (07:38).

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Bounce Back Candidates

The hosts identify six players poised to rebound after disappointing performances last season. They emphasize the importance of selecting undervalued players to maximize draft value.

1. Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers, WR)
   Andy touts Allen as a prime bounce-back candidate, noting his drop from 17th to 48th in WR rankings due to injuries and offensive rhythm issues (09:21). Mike supports this by highlighting Keenan's potential rejuvenation with the addition of Stevie Johnson: “Stevie Johnson goes to the Chargers... he had three straight years of 1000 plus yards and 13 yards of catch” (10:46).

2. Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys, TE)
   Despite a drop from 6th to 10th in TE rankings, Jason Witten remains a reliable and durable option. Jason Moore notes, “Every statistical thing about Jason Witten says he performs just as good” (14:48).

3. Vincent Jackson (Formerly with Tampa Bay, WR)
   Jackson's significant drop from 14th to 38th in WR rankings is attributed to reduced touchdowns and target efficiency. The hosts argue that his high ADP makes him a steal if he returns to form (16:53).

4. Reggie Bush (San Francisco 49ers, RB)
   While concerns about Bush's health loom, the potential for increased involvement in San Francisco's offense presents a favorable scenario for a bounce back (19:28).

5. Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons, WR)
   Roddy White's dip in production last year is seen as an outlier. If he remains healthy, he could stabilize as a top-tier receiver, although the ceiling might be slightly lower (27:06).

6. Jeremy Macklin (Kansas City Chiefs, WR)
   Although discussed later as a bust candidate, initial mentions of Macklin highlight his potential under the Chiefs' system, albeit with skepticism (40:15).

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Bust Candidates

The hosts caution fantasy managers against overvaluing certain players who are likely to underperform relative to their draft positions.

1. Andre Ellington (Arizona Cardinals, RB)
   Despite being a hometown favorite, Ellington is predicted to have a limited workload and low production. Mike warns, “You give him 83 more carries, you don't get any more production out of him” (32:46).

2. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles, WR)
   Jackson's switch to a new team and role may hinder his ability to replicate last season's performance, labeling him a probable bust (35:42).

3. Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina Panthers, WR)
   After a promising rookie year, Benjamin is expected to face regression in targets and efficiency, making him a risky draft pick (37:52).

4. Jeremy Macklin (Kansas City Chiefs, WR)
   Macklin is critiqued for his low catch rate and limited yardage, with the hosts confidently predicting his decline despite his role in Kansas City (40:15).

5. Matt Forte (Chicago Bears, RB)
   As a veteran approaching career longevity, Forte's production is anticipated to wane. The hosts advise avoiding drafting him too high due to declining efficiency and potential role changes (44:24).

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Mailbag

Listener Question: Overly Competitive Keeper League
Kyle, a listener, describes his dilemma in a highly competitive dynasty league. He’s torn between keeping Julius Thomas or Jordan Matthews at the 13th round. The hosts unanimously recommend retaining Jordan Matthews due to his better long-term value and fantasy potential (46:51).

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Listener Review

A glowing review from Cut This City praises the podcast's approachable and insightful analysis. The reviewer states, “It's like they're just sitting around the table enjoying pizza and beer and just talking about football. I would definitely trust them with helping me with my picks” (51:57).

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Conclusion

Wrapping up, the hosts tease upcoming segments, including a mock draft review and deeper insights into streaming strategies. They reiterate their Audible.com partnership and encourage listeners to engage via their website and social media platforms.

Andy concludes with a humorous nod to their "water bet" traditions, ensuring listeners are entertained alongside being informed. The episode ends with the usual sign-offs, promising more valuable content in future shows.

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Key Takeaways

• Value Identification: Focus on players poised for a bounce back to maximize draft efficiency.
• Risk Management: Avoid overvaluing players with questionable roles or declining performance.
• Engagement: Utilize mailbag segments to address specific listener concerns, enhancing the show's relevance and utility.
• Resource Utilization: Take advantage of partnerships and available resources, such as the Audible.com deal for additional perks.

By meticulously analyzing player potentials and pitfalls, the Fantasy Footballers provide listeners with actionable strategies to excel in their fantasy seasons.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway on Sammy Watkins: “Sammy Watkins is going to be ready for training camp because I've made a couple of water bets already this off season around Sammy Watkins” (03:01).

• Jason Moore on Adrian Peterson: “Adrian Peterson, you're allowed to play in the NFL... and when we get it, we are not going to look at it” (05:06).

• Mike Wright on Kelvin Benjamin: “He averaged 54 yards a game with Cam Newton... he had 11 drops of basically a 50% catch rate” (39:23).

• Jason Moore on Matt Forte: “He's got nowhere to go but down. His yards per carry were not even at four last year” (44:24).

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Note: Timestamps are included for reference to specific segments within the podcast transcript.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

Foreign.

[Jason Moore]

To the fantasy footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

We are back again. It's the fantasy footballers podcast. It is Thursday, April 16th and we're excited to be here. This is Andy Holloway along with Mike the fantasy hitman. Right. Jason Moore. How you guys doing this morning?

[Mike Wright]

I hope you paid your taxes.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, oh, oh, that's. I'm See, I was doing great until you. My show's over. Show man.

[Andy Holloway]

Dragging him off, man. Hey, we got a good show for you today. We're gonna go through some news and notes. We're gonna talk bounce backs and busts. Last if you didn't catch Tuesday show, it was a great one. Sleepers and we also had some breakout. Breakouts. Yeah, I know. I couldn't remember for a second, but it was really good.

[Mike Wright]

You should have been there. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And we, we went through a bunch of mailbag questions. We got a couple more we're going to go through today. If you want to follow our show on Twitter, you can do so heffballers. We drop all our latest news, notes, information, articles, everything we bring you, we also bring to Twitter and you can go to our website, thefantasyfootballers.com if you love the off season podcasts. You love the insight, love the show. We've gotten a lot of good feedback lately. If you wouldn't mind hopping into itunes and give us a. That helps us out a lot. We really appreciate everybody who's done that. We'll be more thankful than T. Rich when Oakland called.

[Mike Wright]

Oh man.

[Andy Holloway]

And yeah, we read a review every show. We're gonna do that again at the end of the show. So we really appreciate that. Click that subscribe button in itunes. You can also listen to us if you're on Android. You can do that through Stitcher. We're on, I think every major Android service. So if there's one that we're not on, let us know. We'll get on there. You guys excited for the show today?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, very much. I unfortunately do not have a tale to tell today.

[Andy Holloway]

Today there's no, no horrible catastrophes in your personal life you want to bring to light?

[Mike Wright]

Well, there was the drive in we. As I was trying to get to the studio, the roads are just completely torn up as they're trying to put a sewer in, I think.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Down here.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And today's garbage day. So I got stuck behind in the single lane behind a garbage thing.

[Andy Holloway]

So I going through all the pylons.

[Mike Wright]

I try and take this detour. I end up like Albuquer before I got here. It was ridiculous.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, you're here yet I was still late. Yeah, that's true.

[Mike Wright]

I was before you.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you beat me and I had nothing going on. I just took it easy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Putting your clothes on is a daily difficult accomplishment. But well done today you've got frozen.

[Jason Moore]

By tax both buttons.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk some news and notes.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I was happy to see that. You should be.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

That Sammy Watkins is going to be ready for training camp because I've made a couple of water bets already this off season around Sammy Watkins. Made one with Mike outperforming Mike Evans.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no. You're with the Jordan Matthews. Okay. You were the Mike Evans, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Correct.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. So, yeah, Sammy Watkins, healthy supposedly coming into camp. He did play all 16 games last year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

But he had.

[Andy Holloway]

Despite some injuries, he had a hip surgery. So just such a tough guy. That's going to win my bet for me.

[Jason Moore]

I don't like the way he plays for. I mean, I love the way he plays, but from an injury perspective as a wide receiver, he's like a bull you over kind of. You know, I think he might struggle with injuries for a little while early in his career. And I, and I wish nothing ill on you, Sammy, but for our water bet, you know, if it happens, it happens.

[Mike Wright]

He also struggles with finishing the touchdown. If you guys.

[Andy Holloway]

I just would have put his stats up even higher last year.

[Mike Wright]

I just caught the. Caught a replay of the. The game.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you really?

[Mike Wright]

I think it was the jets of where he started the showboat. He started what we call the desean Jackson D Jacks.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Mike Wright]

And, and just got tackled.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that was, that was brutal because he's much faster, but he, he gave up on the play. Adrian Peterson is now eligible for reinstatement. That's just kind of a foregone conclusion here. We don't have it yet, but it could happen any day.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

What are your. I mean, we were talking a lot about him going to a different destination. Not a lot of news is broke. Does that sour you on that possibility?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's. I don't. First of all, what is going on with this reinstatement? They've been thinking and talking about this for what, an entire year?

[Jason Moore]

I forget that he's not reinstated right now. Like it's, it's absolute foolishness right now on part of the NFL.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I just make a decision first is all you have to do. And we're hearing there Will be no further suspensions. He's probably going to lose some game checks. Whatever, that's fine. And I still think he stays in Minnesota.

[Jason Moore]

Adrian Peterson, you're allowed to play in the NFL. You're allowed to submit your paperwork to us. And when we get it, we are not going to look at it until, I don't know, till next Tuesday, until.

[Andy Holloway]

Our taxes are done.

[Jason Moore]

Stop it.

[Andy Holloway]

I was hoping to have another mediocre wide receiver sign this week.

[Mike Wright]

So close.

[Andy Holloway]

But Greg Jennings is supposed to visit New Orleans. We actually, we were talking about this at lunch the other day. There's not a lot of places I think that Greg Jennings landing in could be okay, but New Orleans, he could be okay.

[Mike Wright]

Not too shabby.

[Jason Moore]

How old is Greg Jennings?

[Mike Wright]

54.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. Just last week he celebrated 50.

[Jason Moore]

No, honestly, honestly, because I looked this up and I was really surprised. How old is Greg Jennings? I thought I would have guessed.

[Andy Holloway]

I'd guess 33. 34.

[Jason Moore]

I would have guessed 34.

[Mike Wright]

32.

[Jason Moore]

30, 31.

[Andy Holloway]

What?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's a wide receiver. 31. I mean, he can.

[Andy Holloway]

Little known fact, when you leave Aaron Rodgers, you look old.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I think part of it is he left Green Bay, took the money in Minnesota, was talking up how great he was going to do with Christian Ponder as his quarterback. He just started blowing up the hot air balloon.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what he is popped in his face. He's the example of if Randall Cobb had left this offseason.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Randall Cobb in Oakland.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, because think about it. Greg Jenks is a free agent right now. Right. This is that second contract after the big money contract.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Where you don't get a cash in because you didn't produce because you don't have a good quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

So question.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

You know, all jokes aside, if he were to sign with the Saints, what do you think of him as far as draft? Where do you draft him?

[Andy Holloway]

High end. I mean, he could end up as a wide receiver. Three.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I was going to say a three.

[Andy Holloway]

If. If things went the right way and they didn't, you know, I don't know what Nick Tunes going to do there. You've got cooks. I mean, there's a spot for him. It seems like there'd be a spot for him.

[Jason Moore]

There's definitely a spot for him. He's lost all of his.

[Mike Wright]

Well, no Jimmy Graham. I mean, Brandon Cooks can't catch every pass.

[Andy Holloway]

No Colston. But yeah, it would be interesting. At least it was an interesting destination. They brought up one interesting piece of news that I read. I think this Morning was the fact that Steven Ridley's contract with the jets only had about $80,000 guaranteed.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that, that says to me, you are not guaranteed to be on this team.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly, exactly. He might end up in a situation where he's not even through camp. I mean, he's, he's a camp body. Yeah, it's a wait and see with Ridley. So don't get too excited.

[Mike Wright]

It was such a strange signing when you have Chris Ivory there, who is basically the exact same guy. And maybe they're just having a competition of and only one of them is going to be on the team, which for us is better for fantasy purposes because then we know who to draft.

[Andy Holloway]

And who has value, wait and see in that backfield.

[Jason Moore]

So the other piece of news here is our awesome partnership with audible.com audible.com is literally one of the best services. So if anybody out there still does not have an audible.com account, you do not have to continue to be a fool. You can go and support this show and get a free book.

[Mike Wright]

Free audiobook.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's an audiobook for all of our audio listeners. Get a free audiobook. Just go to audibletrial.com audio the fantasy footballers and support your local show.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Grab a free audiobook. Easy as pie. Go grab Fantasy Life by Matthew Barry.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

Go grab Game of Thrones. Yeah, that's what I got on there.

[Mike Wright]

You can get the. Yeah, the whole book. You can get that. That's hours worth for free.

[Jason Moore]

That's one of my favorite.

[Mike Wright]

It's like 80 hours.

[Andy Holloway]

If you got a commute, that's what's nice. After you're done listening to us, of course. Spare time.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Personally, I go on there and I search like because I've got the credits and I go and I search for order by price. I get like $200 book sets for free.

[Mike Wright]

Hello, everybody.

[Andy Holloway]

I am back. Oh my gosh. I love that cut. We're talking bounce backs. I almost wanna play it again. We're talking bounce backs. Guys that have last year had sour years, you could say, but have produced in the past. And we think we. We identified. We got a list of six guys right now that are early candidates for bounce back seasons to produce. These are the best guys to me because you have the opportunity in the draft to draft them based on last year's position or somewhere close to it and get ultimate value out of that.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely. And that's how you win is you, you find these guys, you find the good sleepers, you find the good bounce back guys and you get stud. Stud players but in the fifth round or later.

[Andy Holloway]

So one guy that I think we are all in on as a bounce back candidate is Keenan Allen from the San Diego Chargers. He was the 17th ranked. So that's wide receiver two in 2013.

[Mike Wright]

At wide receiver with a. I think he missed a couple games.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he missed a couple games. He was great. Last year he dropped all the way to 48th at the wide receiver position. So again he had some injuries I think last year too. But he also just kind of got out of the rhythm of that offense. But kind of didn't he come on at the end of the year a little bit?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he did. So the. So about Keenan Allen, what was strange was not the targets or the receptions, it was just the yards per catch went way down. Went over four and a half yards down per catch, which is. That's a big, big hit. Now I think what was wrong with Keenan Allen was also. He was a little bit banged up, but I think he. The defenses were skewed towards him. We saw Eddie Royal and other guys get off a couple times. He still had a handful of monster games. Now this, this may surprise you why I like Keenan Allen so much. It's because of Stevie Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

Really?

[Mike Wright]

Me? Yes.

[Jason Moore]

I was gonna ask about that.

[Mike Wright]

So Stevie Johnson goes to the Chargers. We forget about Stevie because he went to San Francisco and did not much. What you forget is he had three straight years of 1000 plus yards and 13 yards of catch. And according to Pro Football Focus, he dropped two passes.

[Andy Holloway]

I love Stevie Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

When Colin, you've always been a Stevie Johnson fan.

[Mike Wright]

I know when Kaepernick was targeting Stevie Johnson he had 102 quarterback rating. So I saw that the targets weren't there for him last year, but he was still. He was producing with what he was given for some reason. The. What's the ironic thing about this is the Chargers were made a decision between Michael Crabtree and Stevie Johnson While the 49ers were picking Crabtree last year to keep him on the field. And so the Charger said no way we're going with Stevie Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So you think that that's just going to draw coverage away from Keenan?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the defenses cannot go to him. And my last piece is the playoff game against Denver. Six catches, 142 yards, two touchdowns. So it's not like he just was. He came on the scene and he was good for a year. He still has the ability. Just. Things were just. It was just one of those bizarre season down sophomore years.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I think going. You always love. Historically, you love wide receivers going into the third year. So he's going in the third year. I like the fact that I think the big problem with him last year was that he got harder coverage. So I can see Stevie Johnson helping that out. And then, of course, news came out today that Antonio Gates has asked for a more limited role.

[Mike Wright]

He went. Mike Wallace?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's. Did Mike Wallace do that?

[Andy Holloway]

No, no. Mike Wallace just took a more limited role on the sidelines.

[Mike Wright]

Mike Wallace would say, I don't want to go back in the game.

[Jason Moore]

Oh. Oh, yeah. Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

So, yeah, I don't even want to compare those two.

[Jason Moore]

So if Gates is coming off the field, the more targets to go around. And so in his sophomore year, he actually played one game less and got more receptions. And in addition to the yards per catch being down, he also just caught half as many touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's what it comes down to. Those are great bounce backs, too. This happened to Jordy Nelson a few years ago where he had a huge touchdown year. Then he had a down touchdown year. So everybody faded on him. You know, touchdowns are hard to predict. So look at usage. Look at, like you said, total receptions. Keenan Allen, he's young, third year. Everything says, even if he floats all the way up to this wide receiver three adp, he's still a value. Yeah, he has he going to. Yeah, sorry.

[Mike Wright]

He had 121 targets in 14 games.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's huge. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All of this is thrown out the window if Philip Rivers is traded on draft day. Just throwing that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, I'm not counting on that. No, that doesn't happen very often. Although to the Cardinals, that'd be all right for next year.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, okay. Carson Palmer.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so I love you, Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen's a great bounce back candidate. Let's talk about Jason Whitten. You guys had him. As you know, I'm kind of indifferent on the thought that he can bounce back. Part of that has to do with just age and upside. But he was sixth at the tight end position in 2013. He was down to 10th last year. No, DeMarco Murray, he's a safety blanket. What do we think? I know we've said he's of draft value, but is he going to bounce back with big numbers?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think that he will bounce back with good numbers. Here are the previous seven years before last year. The previous seven years. And these are pretty consistent. It's not like, you know, we're shouting weird numbers here. He averaged 89 receptions for the last seven years and last year he got 63. That's a huge difference. And the previous seven years he averaged 127 targets. Last year was only 90. So now the question has to be is this the new normal or is this the outlier? How many, what percentage of the snaps do you think Jason Witten was on the field last year?

[Mike Wright]

He had in the top three, probably 98% at least.

[Jason Moore]

You're right, at least. He was on the field for 99% of the snaps. So he is a great run blocker. They were running the ball. They ran the ball like in 2013. They were 65% passing. And last year it was basically 50. 50. I expect them to stay, you know, focused on the run, but they're not going to be able to do the same thing without DeMarco Murray, in my opinion this year. So I think they're going to pass the ball more. The targets go up. Every statistical thing about Jason Witten says he performs just as good. So I see him bouncing back to where he was and being drafted where he shouldn't be. So that's great.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. With the numbers that Jason was going over, just to kind of emphasize them, that was the lowest targets and receptions he's had since 2006. It was the lowest yards per game since his rookie year. His yards per reception were still great at 11. That's, that's about what he's had throughout his career. So it, the playability was still there. And he is just an ironman. He doesn't miss games, he doesn't miss snaps.

[Jason Moore]

What was that injury? I thought lacerated spleen and he's like, I'm playing.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's amazing. He is always there. He is made of steel of some kind.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and the thing is, when you're talking about bounce back candidates, there's plenty of guys that had great 2013s that had crappy 2014s. Right. And so we're trying to identify the guys whose fades are not permanent because plenty of guys will pull Greg Jennings, where he leaves, has a worst year and then keeps having worse years. So Whitten is somebody who, like you said, he's an ironman. He's not as old as you think he is. Yeah, 30. So yeah, he's a good candidate for that. The next guy we'll bring up and we'll kind of bullet point him because we've talked about him a couple times on a couple different shows. But Vincent Jackson is a perfect bounce back candidate. He led the team in targets. Last year he beat out Mike Evans in targets, but he dropped from 14th at the wide receiver position in 2013 all the way down to 38th last year.

[Mike Wright]

People are going to draft him on that 38th. They're going to be mad.

[Andy Holloway]

You're talking sixth, seventh, eighth round probably for Vincent Jackson because of the Evans hype. Rookie coming in. There's just too much value there for Vincent Jackson and too much talent. I think Jason, he's, he's a guy that you're super high on.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Of all the bounce back candidates, you know, some of these guys I think could bounce back. Vincent Jackson is my guy that I'm saying is going to bounce back because there's no reason other than touchdowns that he dropped off and he's always been a touchdown target. And again, I've said this on the show before, but when rookie quarterbacks come in, they target the veteran more than the young stud. And so this year I just, I don't see how he doesn't finish as a number two wide receiver. And you're right, Andy, he's going right now in the seventh round, 10th pick, so almost the eighth round.

[Mike Wright]

That's ridiculous.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, it's just. And whereas Mike Evans, who I think is going to finish pretty near him but maybe even behind is going what, like second round? Sometimes in drafts.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I don't really have much to add, just that his year. If you look at the numbers for the last three years, the touchdowns really is the difference. His yardage was down by about 200 yards, but it's the touchdowns were what made the difference for Jackson last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. Vincent Jackson look for him to be a better value than Mike Evans. For sure. We all agree with that. Reggie Bush is a guy that I want to bring up briefly. I'm not saying I'm 100% sold on him bouncing back, but here's a guy who in 2011 was 12th and 2012 was 14th. 2013 he was the 11th bank running back. So that three straight years he had very relevant running back. One running back, back in running back one running back, two numbers. He was 50th last year. Obviously health was a huge component. But here's a guy who has the ability to produce and I think will be basically this take comes from how undervalued he's going to be in a backfield with Carlos Hyde, the hype out of San Francisco. And I just think he might be able to do more damage there than we expect. Colin Kaepernick draws a lot of that linebacker play that might put Reggie Bush in a position where he's in space again catching passes. He's, you know, to be fair, when you look back at his good years, he was getting 175totes at least from the backfield. Not just catches. But I wouldn't, you know, if he's super down the board, he's a guy that can produce at a higher level and I'm just curious to see what he does in San Francisco.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's in, he's a high. At worst, he's a high level Handcuff that if Hyde goes down or doesn't produce that they're comfortable with Reggie Bush as a veteran to come in and take, take the job. The absolute number one question with Reggie Bush is health. He has played for nine years. He has played a full season two times and he averages just under 13 games a year if you average out how many games he's actually played. So that's not the best statistic. However, when he's shown that when he's in and in the proper position, he can produce high level fantasy numbers.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, one other thing that I, that I like about Reggie Bush because he's, he's being drafted right now in the middle of the ninth round and it looks to be leveled off there was in the tens and now he's in the middle of the ninth. So I think that's a good value. But one of the things I like is that the Niners are changing. They lost Greg Roman, the offensive coordinator there, who's a ground and pound guy. They lost their defense, which is going to mean they can't run the ball so successfully because they're going to be in more shootouts. And I think when the game gets behind, Carlos Hyde is not known as a pass catching back. And so Reggie Bush might be in the game more than we're expecting. So I like the value at where you could get him. I'm not sold that he will bounce back to where he was beforehand, but definitely people are not. People are sour on him. And I think that and hugely high on Carlos Hyde. And I just think they're going to be closer than everyone right now is saying.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and Hyde has a lot of talent, but I am the first guy to tell you I don't believe in just investing into somebody who has opportunity and hasn't shown me it over the course of a year because everybody did that with Monte Ball last year, which I thought was insane because of the opportunity and he just didn't have. He didn't produce. You don't know until you see it. You don't know what he's like in pass protection. You don't know where the trust of the coaches is with a young guy. There's a lot of times you just put out a veteran. I mean Reggie Bush is a veteran. He knows what he's doing on the field. He's a, you know, a leader out there. So don't sleep on him. Here's, here's a couple of guys. We're gonna tag team these two. Yeah, I thought Mike, Mike brought these up. Great guys to remember. Brandon Marshall and AJ Green. They finished in the top five together. They finished fourth and fifth in 2013 last year. They are all the way down to 23rd and 34th. What do you have to say about Brandon Marshall specifically?

[Mike Wright]

Just that Marshall has shown that even with a subpar quarterback he can still produce. And while we're mentioning these names, it's not because people are going to forget them necessarily. It's just the recency bias of being so let down by Brandon Marshall last year in particular and A.J. green with his, with, with his injuries and people might sour on him a little bit. However, what are we freaking me out, man, with, with how they finished last year. People are going to be upset that this always happens and AJ Green will not be drafted where he should be.

[Andy Holloway]

And we've talked about him a little bit in terms of just being able to come back from an injury plagued year where people have fear of Dalton or fear of. Or maybe just they like other guys more because they've done it like Evans or something.

[Mike Wright]

That's what's going to happen is guys will, they'll say, oh well, I'm not so sure about last year and Evans had a great year so maybe I'm going to pass on AJ Green. AJ Green is a super student. The guy gets it done all the time. Yeah, except when he's can't play because he's hurt. But other than that he'll get it done.

[Andy Holloway]

And there's no, nothing that I saw on the field from Brandon Marshall last year while he was healthy. Told me he couldn't separate anymore. He was open, he was getting targets. It was just a matter of he's going to land in a new place now with an improved offense from what they were last year and you know, but are they, is he fourth?

[Jason Moore]

Are they improved from what the Bears were last year?

[Andy Holloway]

No, but not many teams will be saying.

[Mike Wright]

We're saying he'll come but he'll finish higher than he did last year.

[Andy Holloway]

You're not, you're worried about Marshall?

[Jason Moore]

I'm a little bit worried about Marshall. I am madly man crush in love with AJ Green. I think he's going to be, you know, top five. But Brandon Marshall has a few things that worry me. I think, you know, his head has always been a possible issue and Mike brought this up a couple weeks ago. But going to New York is not an easy thing for an athlete. The major media market, I mean granted Chicago is not far behind as far as major media markets, so he has been used to that. But he's also, you know, he doesn't have the rapport. He's a little bit older and I expect him to do what he did in Miami and in Miami he was still a serviceable, you know, wide receiver. I think what was wide receiver two in Miami? Like a top end wide receiver two. And I expect him to be able to do that. But I don't think he's going to bounce back to where. Right. I just don't see that. I think not only because he's got, you know, opportunity to drop from where he has been, but also because I think there's so many young wide receivers that are about to rise up. Same. Same on the Calvin Johnson conversation that there's. The top six or seven guys are just so good right now in the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me ask you this. Brandon Marshall or Kenan Allen?

[Jason Moore]

Brandon Marshall.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, just making sure.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And so I'm looking this up. Where did Marshall fit?

[Andy Holloway]

Miami might be a really good comparison to what he did out there with a little bit of a less high octane offense, new quarterback, different quarterback situation. So. And he was still really productive in 2010.

[Mike Wright]

He his first year there he was 28th. However in 2011, 13th just outside of wide receiver one numbers.

[Andy Holloway]

And I think Jason would probably say 13th is more than reasonable.

[Jason Moore]

I think I would split the difference there.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh really?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Farther down.

[Jason Moore]

Well, because you see the first year, I mean you do have to get used to a new, you know, a new quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you're definitely seeing a lot of the reasons why people will fade on him going to New York having a down year. He's going to be falling down the boards a little bit.

[Mike Wright]

So here's just quick question. Okay. Brandon Marshall or Julian Edelman?

[Jason Moore]

Brandon Marshall.

[Mike Wright]

Brandon Marshall or Brandon Cooks?

[Andy Holloway]

Marshall.

[Jason Moore]

For me I would do Marshall.

[Mike Wright]

Both of those guys were very early on adp, but both of those guys are going before Marshall. He's going at the back of the fourth.

[Jason Moore]

Brandon.

[Andy Holloway]

That's exactly where. That's why he's a candidate for us at least.

[Jason Moore]

I agree.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think any of us are saying he's a guaranteed top five. I think we're just saying.

[Mike Wright]

But a guy.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not a 25. He's not a 35.

[Mike Wright]

Back of the fourth. A guy who could finish as a wide receiver. 1.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Has the ability to do it.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Let's talk about our last bounce back candidate. Really, it's. It's not mine because I don't really believe in this one as much as Mike does.

[Mike Wright]

I do.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know why he does. So we're talking about. I believe it's the. He's the second receiver on the Atlanta Falcons.

[Mike Wright]

Roddy White doesn't bother me that he's the second receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

He was 10th in 2012. Great. Mind you, that was three years ago. He didn't do anything in 2013 and he was 26 last year. Which to me just. I'll let you rant but 26 to me is his ceiling this year.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. I'll give him 24. 24 is the ceiling. He can be a wide receiver too for you. But I just don't have confidence that a guy that's production has slowed and injuries have told will be. I mean 24 is fine. 24 is great. He's playing on everybody's fantasy team. But I don't. I don't see him going up into that 10, 11, 12 range again.

[Mike Wright]

The though the production has slowed is just a myth in your head. It's all because of games missed. And up until 2013, 2014, that's. Up until then he had never missed a game. And he missed three in 2013. Two last year. So here's his stat. This is what he finished with with last year in 14 games. 89, 21 and 7. Those are fair numbers, right? You give.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's not bad.

[Mike Wright]

So we're playing hypothetical, of course. But let's say he played the full season and he was injured a lot of this season. Let's say he played the full 16 games and you give him. He averaged 60 yards a game. Right. So let's give him his average. Let's say he doesn't even have a great game. He just has average games and he scores one touchdown. He jumps up to the 17th wide receiver. The deal. He had 125 targets in 14 games. He was on pace for 142 targets. Well, he would have easily been over a thousand yards.

[Jason Moore]

I've Had Roddy White the last two years. Just to interject.

[Mike Wright]

And that's why you're so sour.

[Andy Holloway]

I was gonna say, did he talk you into it or out?

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no. He hasn't talked to me.

[Andy Holloway]

And I have a great question for you, by the way.

[Jason Moore]

I think that Roddy White was always. I mean, he never missed a game. His first, you know, decade in the league, it seemed like. But over the last few years, he has had the type of injuries that come with age and that reoccur. And I don't see him playing 16. That's my issue with him being top.

[Mike Wright]

And that's perfectly fair. So just my last. Since 2007. 2007, if Roddy White plays 16 games, he gets over a thousand yards. It's as easy as that.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that a thousand yards is not a problem for Roddy White if he's healthy.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I just don't know. I think 1,000 yards puts him. He'll probably be about 25, 23.

[Mike Wright]

But I'm saying he. That's the minimum. So.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, so Roddy in the six or Julio in the second? Julio in the second or Roddy in the sixth?

[Mike Wright]

I'm probably still going Julio Jones, because I think he can finish at the top of the.

[Andy Holloway]

What if Roddy's in the seventh right now, his actual ADP is the second pick of the seventh round.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, I just. I think that's fantastic. Well, in the seventh round, a guy who you guys are agreeing should finish as a wide receiver, too.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I agree. The value is great. The value is great. If we're talking about whether I like Roddy White for the upcoming year, I do. If it's specific, which, granted, we're just making up, you know, a segment that we're talking about. Bounce back. But bounce back would be saying he's going to bounce back to what he was before last year as a. Two years ago as a wide receiver, too, so. And I think wire receiver two is his ceiling. I agree with Andy, but I. But in the seventh, wide receiver two.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, we're high on Matt Ryan, we're high on Kyle Shanahan, and we're high on Hula Jones. So there's a chance there.

[Mike Wright]

This. This might be too convoluted for you, but for a bet, if Roddy white plays all 16, he will be a top 20 receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not taking that bet.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you gotta. You gotta make it like a wide receiver one or something.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. If you want to bounce back. Bet me. Bet me that he Gets into the top 12.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think they can. The offense can sustain two.

[Andy Holloway]

We agree.

[Jason Moore]

Old busted.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we're talking busts, guys that will go very high or higher than they should in the fantasy drafts coming up. You know, we're inching closer here. We got the NFL draft right around the corner. We're going to be talking rookies, impact players, guys that we like landing in certain places and upcoming show, I believe next Tuesday. Is that what we said? What, Wait, what I think is the week after Tuesday. We're talking rookies.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So stay tuned for that. But these guys are our busts. The first guy we got to talk about is a hometown native. Well, not native. Hometown player for us here in Arizona. Andre Ellington. I saw, I saw him on somebody's. Where was he in that top ten list we just saw the other day?

[Mike Wright]

Like five or something?

[Andy Holloway]

Four or five.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my gosh.

[Andy Holloway]

How out of touch was that list? We love Andre Ellington as a dude, right? As a, as a player for the Arizona Cardinals. But guys, he's not a wide or he's not a. He's not a wide receiver at all, but he's not a running back one.

[Mike Wright]

Not even close.

[Andy Holloway]

And he's getting drafted there. So my only comment on him is that people need to understand Andre Ellington has no chance at a heavy workload this year.

[Mike Wright]

To me, yeah, it's weird because of the what's coming out of Bruce Arian's mouth of saying, well, hope Andre Ellington will get the same workload unless somebody takes the job from him. Which somebody's going to. Somebody is going to take the job from him.

[Jason Moore]

Definitely happening.

[Mike Wright]

And just so people aren't thinking, hey, these guys watched him last year on their jump a chip. I was not on the Andre Ellington bandwagon last year. I tried to preach caution with him very much while people were flying off the handle. Here's what happened to Andre ellington last year. 3.3 yards per carry, a 2.2 yard per carry drop in 2014. So last year he had 83 more carries. Now what would you do? How many more yards do you think you would get with 83 more carries? The answer is eight. Eight more yards on 83 more carries.

[Andy Holloway]

He's just. He's just like you said. You've said it in previous shows. He's Geo Bernard. He is excellent in that he can run out wide and line up out of the backfield as a wide receiver. He can take. He's great in third down situations. Get him in space, let him Be that gadget guy. But your stats right there prove it. You give him 83 more carries, you don't get any more production out of him. So why give him 83 more carries?

[Jason Moore]

So he lost 2.2 yards per carry. We were just talking about bounce backs. Right. So the question should be asked, do you expect him to stay 2.2 yards per carry less? He was injured last year a lot. Maybe he comes in healthier, has a little bit limited role and can be better. I'm asking more devil's advocate here.

[Mike Wright]

The. For me, he's a bust because of where he is going to be drafted.

[Jason Moore]

He's going in the fourth round.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Right now he's. He's positioned properly. In my opinion, he'll.

[Mike Wright]

He'll drop even maybe a little bit further when. When Arizona brings in another back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think he's fine where he's at.

[Mike Wright]

What if the fourth round.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah, I would take him.

[Mike Wright]

I would not take him.

[Andy Holloway]

It's the end of the fourth round. He. Here's guys that Andre Ellington is going ahead of. Okay. It's not a lot of guys. CJ Spiller, Gio Bernard, Darren McFadden, Isaiah Cruell, Jonathan Stewart. My. I'm tempering what I'm seeing online from some of these top 10 lists where they're putting running back one hype. It seems like on some of these ADP lists, they might have them in the right spot for me. But you know, I'm not taking any of those other guys ahead of him at all.

[Mike Wright]

Spiller, Jonathan Stewart for sure. I can't remember the other guys you listed, but I would take them.

[Andy Holloway]

Crowell, Bernard. I would take Ivory Blunt.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. But at least three of those guys, I mean, I just don't think Ellington, he can't sustain with the workload. I. I like him to bounce back, so to speak. If he's put back into his proper role of being the gadget guy, the. And unfortunately, Ellington. I got a pile on you a little bit more. He had with all that workload in which it could be the injuries Jason was just talking about. He wasn't elusive anymore. He had forced 12 missed tackles. You know what range that puts him, what. What company he's keeping in that we're talking Toby Gerhardt, Donald Brown, Matt Aziata. When you are as elusive as Matt Aziata. Hey, come on. It might be time to hang it up if you can't dodge tackles more than that guy.

[Jason Moore]

That being said, if they draft a rookie highly and bring in somebody and Ellington's draft stock plummets and we see him used in more an efficient role.

[Andy Holloway]

In that case, it would be a Gordon or a Gurley, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, exactly. If someone like that, I wonder what range, you know, if he drops to the sixth, does he become a value? Knowing that he can.

[Mike Wright]

I like him more in the sixth.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so let's talk. We got to get through these busts here. DeSean Jackson is the next guy on our list. Mike, sing the songs of Mr. DeShawn Headcase Jackson. So why don't you like him? Because he produced really pretty well last year.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, he produced like a monster because he had 21 16th, 21 yards per reception.

[Andy Holloway]

But that's his game.

[Mike Wright]

No, I mean the three years prior he was in the 16 range. That's a five yard jump per reception. He had 1100 yards on 56 catches.

[Andy Holloway]

But he did switch teams and they were. They're utilizing him in that deep role.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I just, I don't think you can sustain that. He's not going to. If that's all he's getting. He's not going to be able to hit on those like he did last year.

[Jason Moore]

I agree. I looked through some of what the coaches were saying and they want to get Pierre Garcon more involved and I think that. Good. Yeah. No, no. I actually see desean Jackson as a very big bust candidate and I actually see Pierre Garcon as a bounce back candidate. That was on my list for bounce backs.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I don't, I don't have too many thoughts on DJX other than the fact I liked what I saw last year. Obviously he's going to be that boom guy. He's not who I want to start at. My wide receiver one or two. And right now he's probably getting drafted as a wide receiver too.

[Mike Wright]

And who's, who's throwing him the ball? Is it Griffin?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, right now it's Griffin. Yeah, desean Jackson's good. If you're in like a basketball league.

[Andy Holloway]

Remember your Kirk cousins? Love.

[Mike Wright]

I was just gonna say he's a captain.

[Andy Holloway]

Kirk, you love that dude.

[Mike Wright]

Dude, that guy was a fantasy beast for a week. For more than one week.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, but remember that game, that Monday night game where he came out and.

[Mike Wright]

I think it was. That was Thursday.

[Andy Holloway]

Whatever it was, it was on display. Five or six picks.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that was.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know if I've ever seen anything like that. Watching, I was like watching through fingers. I just expected, expected every single throw to be picked up.

[Mike Wright]

I was watching my matchup be lost. That night.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep. All right, Kelvin Benjamin, next guy on our bus list. We've talked about him a little bit too. A guy that was targeted heavily, very touchdown dependent and not very efficient with his targets in terms of catches and kind of in an ideal situation last year where there was really no one else to throw to. So Calvin Benjamin, I mean there'll be people that say, hey, he's young, he's Cam's favorite wide receiver, he has upside. What is your take on Kelvin?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's the exact problem is that some conventional wisdom says that Kelvin is going to be even better. Right. Because he was only a rookie and he put up such great numbers. Kind of like the Keenan Allen effect of the year before where you see a rookie burst on the scene who kind of just had a great position where he was receiving all the targets and was kind of the go to guy. And then you just expect, well, he was young, he's going to have more rapport. And so you pump his numbers, you inflate his numbers up from where he landed. And so he's being drafted as if his numbers are going to get better. And I actually believe strongly that his numbers are going to regress from his rookie campaign. They're definitely going to bring in another wide receiver. So he's not going to be just the only target in town and he's not going to be able to sustain that touchdown rate. So as far as where you're drafting him for, where he's going to finish, I'm disgusting.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll let you go. Mike and I have another take on him real quick, but go ahead.

[Mike Wright]

The problem with Benjamin and Newton, the yardage, I mean the touchdowns may or may not be there, but the yardage is just lacking. Where he averaged 54 yards a game with Cam Newton as the quarterback, he went over 100 yards with Cam Newton one time. Those, those are not wide receiver one numbers. And that's what people are trying to take him as. He had 11 drops of basically a 50% catch rate. He, he just, he, and he doesn't average yards after the catch. He was in the bottom 10 of that statistic.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's something that you need to remember about Carolina. Their defense got it back at the end of the year. They were garbage time points that Kelvin put up for half the year. When Cam was hurt, when they were falling behind, their defense stunk in the beginning of the year, end of the year, they, they came back, they obviously made the playoffs. So if their defense has any semblance of what it's Been for a year and a half of the last two years. There's just no. Those garbage time points are gone. I mean that's when Cam was racking up a lot of those yards. So I'd be very weary of wary of Kelvin Benjamin. This one, this next one is a softball for us to hit. Hit out of the park. Jeremy Macklin goes from the ninth. He was the ninth receiver last year. Wide receiver. One came out and did it. Man, all the credit in the world to Jeremy Macklin for betting on himself. Now. He went and got himself a nice paycheck with Kansas City.

[Jason Moore]

This former coach, he got a paycheck and rest at the same time. He's going to be able to take it easy, not have to catch the ball. Yeah, he's getting paid for it with.

[Mike Wright]

Those targets from Alex Smith.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, there's no good way to spin moving to a team that had no wide receiver touchdown receptors on an entire season. That's just not a good spin because he had plenty last year. So is there more to be said about Jeremy Macklin other than don't draft him where based on his production last year?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, absolutely. Do not draft him on that production. What you can look at what's interesting is he's going to his former coach and he had years under Andy Reid. This is what he averaged under Andy Reid with a, with a quarterback who is not captain. Check down Alex Smith. So Macklin, 65 catches, 863 yards, seven touchdowns. Those, those touchdowns are good, but the catches and the yardage is horrific. And if those touchdowns go between 7 and 10, you're getting garbage.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Macklin right now is being drafted 24th.

[Mike Wright]

In the wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

He's being drafted as a wide receiver too. I don't think he finishes the year as a wide receiver. 3. I honestly don't.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, those numbers you read are, you know, I'm not throwing those out. Those are possible. Seven touchdowns is even possible. But he got 10 last year and Kansas City, there's no way he's getting that target totals. I mean, 140 something targets last year or his yards.

[Jason Moore]

His yards are going to drop by 500.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I, I think he could put up a thousand there. I'd love to get. I'm gonna get. Really?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, really. No way can he put up a thousand yards next year.

[Andy Holloway]

No way.

[Jason Moore]

No way.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. You.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Oh, it's on. Water badge.

[Andy Holloway]

Did I just make a Jeremy Macklin?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you bet that Jerry Backlin's gonna put up a grand.

[Andy Holloway]

I I am very confident.

[Mike Wright]

I think we need to explain the water. But it's been a while since we actually talked. People might just be hearing this and like, what is this nonsense? So from time to time we will have a disagreement.

[Andy Holloway]

And we don't just eight times a show.

[Mike Wright]

We don't just disagree. We put it on the line with what we call a water bet. Where we.

[Andy Holloway]

This goes way back.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Where we have a wheel. You will spin the wheel on it. Yeah. Of water. And on it are a bunch of different punishments of ways to get water, cold water poured on you. And we're talking like in your pocket. I can't even remember.

[Andy Holloway]

We had. We had waterboard one that we banned.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Well, I almost died.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, yeah, we have a bunch of. I wonder if we should make people do the show that way. But anyway. Yeah. So it's a form of punishment. It's a way to, you know, you're not just losing the bet, you're paying the piper. And we have a lot of fun with it. Been doing it for years.

[Mike Wright]

Your pride gets drenched with freezing water.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And we'll record those. We'll post them. Jason's already lost this year. Setting a precedent for the remainder of his year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I haven't lost this one. Just throwing this out there. 773 yards. 960. 859, 857. Those are all of his other years.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

How many times has Jeremy Macklin been over a thousand yards?

[Jason Moore]

Just last year. Just last year. In that zero.

[Mike Wright]

In all I read in the power smoothie offense.

[Jason Moore]

In the. In the power smoothie offense. He went over. He went over one, but he barely.

[Andy Holloway]

He was 1400 yards.

[Jason Moore]

Well, right. I mean but he is going to the high power Kansas City Chiefs moving along.

[Andy Holloway]

He only has to average like what, 75 a game to do.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Only I'm not worried about that.

[Jason Moore]

That's like what the Chiefs receiving core averages.

[Andy Holloway]

I can't believe I'm defending Jeremy Macklin. Jeremy Macklin is going to as a bust.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to cross. You're going to go across the middle, hands wide open and Zeus is going to come screaming out of the slot up the seam. He's going to punch Macklin out. He's going to one handed catch that thing and run it in for a touchdown.

[Jason Moore]

Jeremy Macklin is going to average 3.4 yards of catch. You heard it here for us.

[Andy Holloway]

You're both crazy. I'm glad I'm on the show to just bring reasonable advice.

[Mike Wright]

There's nothing reasonable about Macklin in a thousand yards.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. You might be right about that. Do we want to talk about immediate. Do we want to talk about this. This last guy on our possible. He's not a bust. He is not a bust for where you draft him. Yes. Okay. So Matt Forte is a guy that.

[Mike Wright]

This is a. This is a temper your expectation.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. Yeah. We don't have an audio clip for temper your expectations. But Matt Forte is being overdrafted. Matt Forte is being overdrafted. He's as high as number one.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. We saw him yesterday on the list at number which. I don't even know how you could possibly justify that. Maybe you live in Chicago and you're, you know, a hometown. Hometown fan. But I mean, he's a top five.

[Andy Holloway]

On almost every board. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And I don't.

[Jason Moore]

He's got nowhere to go but down. His yards per carry were not even at four last year. He caught over 100 catches last year in the Mark Tressman system. And he's leaving. He has nowhere to go but down. You're going to draft him just thinking, oh, this is where he's at and he's going to go down. And also when you look at the carries, he has passed the threshold that most running backs historically die after over 1800.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Thank you for the. Is he that generational Emmett Smith running back as he approaches 2000 carries where the average man starts to break down and not Tressman's leaving. John Fox is coming in. John Fox was a two running back guy forever. I don't see Matt Forte just being a complete bell cow in Chicago this year like he has been. I think Kadeem Carey, maybe they draft a running back.

[Jason Moore]

I actually like Kadeem Carey this year.

[Mike Wright]

I just.

[Jason Moore]

I.

[Mike Wright]

With. With the. The coaching change, the 102 catches, is that that's not going to be there to save him from his thousand yard 3.9.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the thing. If you want to. The only way he's going to be saved is if he gets. Surprises us on the touchdown front.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Because he's not catching 100 balls. So be careful with Matt Forte. He's not a bust. I'd be happy to have him on my team, but it has to be at the right value so he won't be on any of my teams.

[Jason Moore]

Mailbag.

[Mike Wright]

Mailbag. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

It's everybody's. Yes. Favorite part of the show or Mike and join striper.

[Jason Moore]

My favorite part.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I love this. If you have a question for the show, we answer them during this segment. Mail at the Fantasy Footballers, this one comes in from Kyle. One of you guys can tackle it.

[Mike Wright]

What's up, Kyle?

[Andy Holloway]

He says he's in an overly competitive keeper league. No such thing.

[Mike Wright]

Love it, love it.

[Andy Holloway]

So far that's called the keeper league.

[Mike Wright]

I love it.

[Andy Holloway]

Shouldn't be qualified. It allows them to keep one player drafted from round eight on. Oh my goodness. He gave up.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, this is not good.

[Andy Holloway]

On Jeremy Hill, it says. And he traded him the week before they made him the bell cow and they traded him for a 2015 fifth round pick. He's not. And he, you know, he's not happy about this. He's said that. Soul crushing news being said, he only has two options this year. He could keep Julius Thomas in the 13th round or put his hopes and dreams into Jordan Matthews in the 13th. So he's deciding between Julius in the 13th or Jordan Matthews in the 13th. So which do you think will bring. I know your answer.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'll take this one. Just because I love easy pick pickens. Low hanging fruit. It's not even close. It's not even remotely close. You don't take Julius Thomas in the 13th unless it's a redraft league. And I love Jordan Matthews.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's Jordan Matthews, Kyle. Yeah. I like Julius Thomas more than these.

[Mike Wright]

Guys, but it's Jordan Matthews that pains me in my. In the core.

[Andy Holloway]

Being a funeral for. Oh man, so sad.

[Jason Moore]

But honestly, Jordan Matthews in the 13th I think is still a good value. So keep your, keep your head up and don't tell anybody else about that train.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you go to the grave with that one.

[Andy Holloway]

This next email comes in from Paul from Scotland.

[Jason Moore]

We are an international.

[Andy Holloway]

I love getting this email from. It said we were feeding his off season fantasy football hunger all the way from Scotland.

[Mike Wright]

That is. Is he Scottish or is he American?

[Andy Holloway]

His. Well, I, I'm not gonna say his last name on the show.

[Mike Wright]

No, don't.

[Andy Holloway]

He's Scottish. I. From his last name, he sounded Scottish to me.

[Mike Wright]

That would be incredible.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, good on you, football fan. Right there. His question focuses on his awful dynasty rbs. I noticed a lot of our questions by the way, are related to. I guess it makes sense.

[Mike Wright]

Horrible drafts, running backs, early people.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we are. He's in a 16 team half point PPR with 25 roster spots. Again, it's a dynasty league. Wow. So his question is here's his wide receivers. He's okay at wide receiver. He's actually great at wide receiver. Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffrey emmanuel Sanders, Marty McBride. Yeah. Percy Harvin, Doug Baldwin and Then a couple. Couple scrubs.

[Mike Wright]

Marty McBride is Marktavis Bryant for the new listeners. Yeah, but that's his cool name now. Marty McBride, hashtag it.

[Andy Holloway]

It took me a show to get on board Marty McBray, but now, great Scott, I love it. At running back. He's got Lacey.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's good.

[Andy Holloway]

Latavius Murray, Denard Robinson, Doug Martin, Monte Ball, Lance Dunbar, and Storm Johnson. Is that who that is?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Wow.

[Jason Moore]

I was like.

[Mike Wright]

And Stevie Johnson. Storm. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So his question revolves around, do you think Martin or Ball have a chance at being a usable RB2 next season? To me, no. No, probably not. Martin over Ball. I don't like CJ Anderson, but I don't like Monte Ball either. So he wants to know, does he use one of those sexy wide receivers as bait in a trade? He also picks 10th in our rookie in his rookie draft. So I think yes, you could use one of those wide receivers as bait. Especially if somebody's high on Harvin.

[Mike Wright]

You know who I trade?

[Andy Holloway]

Latavius Murray.

[Mike Wright]

No. If you're in a diet, well, yeah, try and get rid of him. But if you're in a, if you're. You're in a dynasty league. How much long term value does Emmanuel Sanders actually have? Yeah, Cody Latimer's coming in once Peyton Manning leaves. What is Sanders?

[Andy Holloway]

Sanders was a bus candidate for me because he put up all career highs last year and when a guy puts up all career highs, he's going to regress.

[Jason Moore]

He's actually really like Emmanuel Sanders. But I could not agree more. That is a great trade bait option. I do that regardless of who else.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, a little. And another tidbit for that 10th pick in your rookie draft, keep an eye on Tevin Coleman.

[Mike Wright]

Look at this guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Kevin Coleman, running back, puts up four fours consistently. Reminds me a little bit of, you know, kind of that breakout potential of a CJ when he came into the league. Straight line speed. Keep an eye on him because you're probably 10th pick in your rookie draft. You're not getting one of those two big boys.

[Mike Wright]

So even the three.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Tevin Coleman's going to go in the second round of the NFL draft. Probably. So if he lands in the right spot, spot keeping, keep an eye on him. But yeah. Do you guys, you guys agree then look at trading one of those. I don't think he's. Yeah, he needs a running back. He needs a running back.

[Mike Wright]

What's. Did he say how many people he plays? Did I miss that?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think I have it on oh, no.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, two. Yeah, two running back.

[Andy Holloway]

So. Yeah, so I don't think he's in dire straits. Don't take a bad trade, but you have some flexibility at wide receiver in my opinion, especially with how high we are. And I'd rather have, you know, a running back to you than I would Emanuel Sanders right now, so. All right, that does it for today's show. Although we do have a review to read.

[Jason Moore]

Reviewasaurus Rex. This one comes in from Cut this City. This is one of the. Cut this City. I'm rockin. This is one of the best podcasts for fantasy football. I only listen to two other podcasts for fantasy I. And now I have a third one. I feel like when I listen to these guys, they're just sitting around the table enjoying pizza and beer and just talking about football. I would definitely trust them with helping me with my picks.

[Mike Wright]

What is that voice?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know what that was.

[Jason Moore]

Cut the city. You gotta. We cut. We cut this. That was the. That was just such a great review. Cut this City. We love you.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Thank you for sending that one in. We are.

[Mike Wright]

We will help you with your picks.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Mike Wright]

On Twitter, effballers.

[Andy Holloway]

There you go. On the website, you can go to thefantasyfootballers.com, read some articles, drop us a line mail at the fantasy footballers.com and we will answer your questions on the show. Just like we did for Paul in Scotland.

[Jason Moore]

We also have a link on there. We also have a link on there to the audible deal. So if you go to thefantasyfootballers.com, click the audible link on our page and then you can get your free book. And how about the show?

[Andy Holloway]

That's true. We are going to be bringing you a mock draft review show which will be super fun. We're going to bring you some. Mike the Fantasy Hitman is going to bring some streaming. Yes, streaming information.

[Mike Wright]

I am. I am digging through the research.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we'll give you a soliloquy time. We'll let you go on a little streaming rant in an upcoming show.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I just wanted people know that I'm putting in some hardcore research on this and trying to really flesh out the data of why this is the way to go.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Mike Wright]

And breaking news, Cam Newton might not be as good as you guys think he is. That's a tease for you.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a little tease. All right, that's it for today's show. Hop onto itunes, give us that five star review. Subscribe it makes it easy to drop our podcast right into your pocket.

[Mike Wright]

We love you like a walk it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So catch you next Tuesday or Monday.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Are we moving to Monday?

[Jason Moore]

No, not yet, but we might be soon. Email us and let us know if you want us to.

[Mike Wright]

Peace.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.