Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Top 5 RBs, Numberfire's Joe Juan, Mailbag Surprise

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast 2015 - Top 5 RBs, Numberfire's Joe Juan, Mailbag Surprise

Release Date: July 23, 2015

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Introduction

In this engaging episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway and Jason Moore dive deep into the world of fantasy football, focusing on their top five running backs for the upcoming season. Although their third host, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright, is enjoying a vacation in Hawaii, the dynamic duo ensures that listeners receive top-notch analysis and actionable advice. The episode also features a special interview with Numberfire’s Joe Juan and a lively mailbag segment addressing listener questions.

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News and Notes

Amir Abdullah vs. Justin Joyk Bell Debate

The episode kicks off with a spirited debate between Andy and Jason about the running back situation in Detroit. The primary focus is on whether Amir Abdullah can reliably replace Reggie Bush as the team's lead back or if Justin Joyk Bell remains the preferable option.

• Jason Moore [02:10]: "I think Amir Abdullah is awesome. I think he might be great."

• Andy Holloway [02:33]: "I expect Amir Abdullah to take over that Reggie Bush role."

Despite differing opinions, both hosts acknowledge Amir's talent. Jason expresses skepticism about Detroit allocating goal-line opportunities to Abdullah over Bell, citing Mike Wright’s skepticism:

• Jason Moore [02:22]: "Pat Mayo made the same points that I'm making... Detroit does what they've always done."

Emmanuel Sanders' Role in Denver

Next, Andy and Jason discuss Emmanuel Sanders' anticipated shift to a three-wide receiver set in Denver, impacting Cody Latimer’s position.

• Andy Holloway [08:49]: "He might even go up. I could see Emmanuel Sanders with 100 receptions in a PPR this year."

• Jason Moore [09:00]: "So compare Cody Latimer's potential this year with what we saw with Emmanuel Sanders being underdrafted last year."

They conclude that Latimer could emerge as a valuable asset, similar to Sanders’ breakout performance in previous seasons.

Le'Veon Bell Suspension Update

The hosts briefly touch upon the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Le'Veon Bell’s suspension, with no significant updates available.

• Andy Holloway [11:03]: "So I'm on. I actually disagree with my own."

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Top 5 Running Backs

Jason Moore unveils his meticulously updated rankings for the top five running backs in standard league scoring, eliciting excitement and debate between the hosts.

1. Arian Foster

   Jason Moore [13:39]: "Arian Foster is my number one running back this year."

   Andy Holloway [15:25]: "He is on the upswing... he's my number two."

   The discussion centers on Foster's efficiency and resilience despite injury setbacks. Joe Juan joins the conversation to bolster the argument for Foster, emphasizing his consistent performance when healthy.

   • Joe Juan [29:06]: "When you know you can start him, he's putting up 16 points per game."

2. Adrian Peterson

   Jason Moore [21:57]: "He has zero question marks to me, which is ludicrous because he should have question marks."

   Andy Holloway [22:07]: "He had a whole year off... he's Adrian Peterson."

   Peterson’s return is celebrated for his reliability and dual-threat capability as both a runner and receiver.

3. Le'Veon Bell

   Jason Moore [18:52]: "Le'Veon Bell is my number three overall running back right now."

   Andy Holloway [19:14]: "He was the cog... the centerpiece of the offense."

   Both hosts express strong support for Bell, highlighting his role as a workhorse in the offense and his balanced contributions in rushing and receiving.

4. Jeremy Hill

   Jason Moore [15:27]: "Jeremy Hill is my number four overall running back."

   Andy Holloway [15:56]: "I have him in a standard league, I've got him Bloom, I've got him at number six."

   The discussion contrasts Hill with Marshawn Lynch, debating his potential as a consistent performer versus Lynch's proven track record.

   • Jason Moore [16:13]: "He's a future Lynch-type guy."

5. Jamal Charles

   Jason Moore [13:51]: "He's going to get those bombs for touchdowns."

   Andy Holloway [14:02]: "He's a phenomenal running back. You watch him with the ball in your hand."

   Despite limited carries last year, both hosts value Charles for his high touchdown potential and efficiency per carry.

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Special Segment: Interview with Numberfire's Joe Juan

Jason Moore welcomes Joe Juan, the Fantasy Football Scientist from Numberfire, to discuss Arian Foster’s fantasy prospects.

• Jason Moore [26:27]: "Joe and I both believe in Arian Foster this year."

• Joe Juan [29:06]: "Arian Foster... putting up 19 points per game in a PPR."

Joe provides an analytical perspective, reinforcing Foster’s efficiency and arguing against the notion of inconsistency by attributing perceived fluctuations to injury uncertainties. He highlights Foster’s advanced metrics, such as Net Expected Points, which showcase his increasing efficiency and potential prime performance.

• Joe Juan [32:54]: "His efficiency suggests that he might just be hitting his prime."

The hosts and Joe agree that Foster is a reliable top-tier running back, poised to deliver substantial fantasy points despite occasional injury concerns.

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Mailbag Surprise

The episode wraps up with a vibrant mailbag segment where Andy and Jason answer listener questions, offering personalized advice and strategies.

Listener Question from Bo (Dallas, TX):
"Name three running backs who are going in the fifth round or later, who you think are most likely to remain or become starters for at least a good portion of the season."

• Jason Moore: Recommends TJ Yeldon, LeGarrett Blount, and Doug Martin as valuable late-round picks.

• Andy Holloway: Agrees, emphasizing Yeldon’s starting role and Blount’s touchdown potential.

Listener Question from Eric S. (Cincinnati Shredder):
"Does he keep Aaron Rodgers or Le'Veon Bell in a six-point per passing touchdown, ten-man league?"

• Andy Holloway: Advises keeping Le'Veon Bell over Aaron Rodgers, citing the value of a tier one running back.

Listener Question from El Capitan (Hawaii):
"How good is Chris Ivory in a New York City regime, and is he worth drafting in the late rounds?"

• Mike Wright: Endorses Ivory as a valuable late-round pick, anticipating improved offensive strategies under new coaching.

• Jason Moore: Supports, predicting seven to eight touchdowns for Ivory.

Listener Question from Patrick (Las Vegas):
"In a 3 wide receiver PPR league with no flex, is targeting wide receivers in rounds 1-3 viable?"

• Andy Holloway: Suggests flexibility based on draft dynamics but cautions against neglecting running backs.

• Jason Moore: Recommends balancing early picks with reliable running backs along with elite wide receivers.

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Conclusion

Andy and Jason conclude the episode by encouraging listeners to engage with their content through mock drafts at FantasyDraftWizard.com and to utilize promo codes for bonuses on platforms like FanDuel. They also humorously interact with Mike Wright, who joins briefly from Hawaii, adding a lighthearted finish to the rich and informative discussion.

• Jason Moore [56:16]: "Use ballers, the code when you sign up on FanDuel."

• Andy Holloway [57:09]: "Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast."

Listeners are reminded to visit the Fantasy Footballers website and follow them on Twitter for more insights and updates.

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Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore [13:39]: "Arian Foster is my number one running back this year."

• Joe Juan [29:06]: "When you know you can start him, he's putting up 16 points per game."

• Andy Holloway [44:32]: "I would much rather have a tier one running back than a tier one quarterback."

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This episode offers a comprehensive analysis of running back prospects, backed by statistical insights and expert opinions, ensuring fantasy football enthusiasts are well-equipped to make informed decisions for their upcoming drafts.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foreign to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Nope.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the show. This is the Fantasy Footballers. Did you just say nope?

[Andy Holloway]

I said nope because our announcer was incorrect.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. There is no mic. Right. Today I am Andy Holloway. I am doing the work, the hard work. Jason and I are here. Jason is with me. Mike is in Hawaii.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So sad for him. Don't you feel bad that, you know, to be on the podcast today?

[Jason Moore]

It's just a commitment thing. It really is.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, totally not committed.

[Jason Moore]

Something about his family wanting to go on vacation. So it is. Jason and I, we're holding down the fort today. But we have a great show for you today.

[Andy Holloway]

Fantastico.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, exactly. We are speaking different languages.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, it's Hawaii time. Hawaii week.

[Jason Moore]

That's.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what they're saying.

[Jason Moore]

We've got. We've got a bunch of news and notes from around the fantasy football world. We've got my top five running backs. I updated my rankings. We're going to talk through some of those. We also have number Fire Zone, Joe Wan, the fantasy football scientist. He will be chiming in on my number one running back. That I will not disclose. But if you've listened to the show, you probably know who it is. And so we've got a good show. We also are going to go through some listener questions. You can follow us on the web at the ffballers. Visit the website thefantasyfootballers.com you can submit a question for the show. There's a little submit a question button in the upper right corner. Send it in. We answer them on the show. We answer them via email. I got a quick question for you.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, shoot it.

[Jason Moore]

How little can we talk about Amir Abdullah today?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, now that you've asked the question. Yes. Not as little as you'd like. I know you think Mike being gone, we don't have to talk about Amir Abdullah, but I like Amir Abdullah and I am on the Abdullah Express with me.

[Jason Moore]

I should say I am. Wait a second.

[Andy Holloway]

I am. I said this months ago, literally on Twitter. I put. I put like two months ago. Hey, is it too late to join the Express?

[Jason Moore]

No. I know you're on. I have no doubt that you're on. I should have taken this opportunity without.

[Andy Holloway]

You should buy your ticket.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I have no problem with Amir Abdullah.

[Andy Holloway]

Good.

[Jason Moore]

You understand. I just don't think. Mike was on the show with Pat Mayo the other day and he said, joy, by the way, Pat Mayo agrees with me. But he was on the show the other day and he said joyk Bell is as good as dead to me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's something to that point too far. That's just being foolish.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I just don't think Joyk is out of the, out of the running. I think Amir Abdullah is awesome. I think he might be great. We've seen Reggie Bush and Joy Bell have good seasons in Detroit.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I expect Amir Abdullah to take over that Reggie Bush role. And going into last season, who did we draft first? We drafted Reggie Bush. The one difference that I see is that, you know, Mike expects Amir Abdullah to get goal line opportunities.

[Jason Moore]

No, he doesn't.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he does.

[Jason Moore]

He cannot.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

He's a respectable human being. He has any semblance of.

[Andy Holloway]

No, but I mean, I don't see any reason they would bring Amir Abdullah in for goal line situations over Joyk Bell. Joy Bell never will be the goal.

[Jason Moore]

Linebacker Pat Mayo made the same points that I'm making, which is the fact that, you know, they. Detroit does what they've always done and they like third down. Joy Bell knows how to pass. Perchrek.

[Andy Holloway]

I think if you can catch the ball, I think if you took your position on Joy Bell, which is too high, you're not willing to get. You're not willing to realize that he's regressing, he's older, he's coming off of knee surgery and he's got a stud back.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm choosing. I'm letting opportunity sweep all those things away.

[Andy Holloway]

And Mike's crazy train of Abdullah being for president. Yeah, there it is.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Mike's crazy train.

[Andy Holloway]

And if you put those two together and you just found out what is true, you'd be right where I'm sitting.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, okay. So not bad. Like I said, good show. Lots coming up. Be sure to check out our brand new YouTube channel. We've got a lot of answers on there. Talk, some running backs on there. Let's go and read a review.

[Andy Holloway]

Review a source.

[Jason Moore]

Red. Hold on. Before you read this one, I just wanted. I want people to know they should be watching on YouTube at this exact moment.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, yes, you should. Well, this one comes in from review. Title is legendary.

[Jason Moore]

I like it.

[Andy Holloway]

He or she says if I had to describe this podcast in one word, it would be indescribable. The combination of knowledge, humor and sound quality is something only comparable to the crunch of an Oreo. Double stuff cookie incoming.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, my goodness.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a double stuff in my mouth.

[Jason Moore]

Right? How is that, how is that double stuff cookie?

[Andy Holloway]

It's very good.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Look into the Camera.

[Andy Holloway]

Just the right amount of cream. We don't have any of this nonsense. Oreo.

[Jason Moore]

I want. Hold on. Let me hold this up. Let me hold up. This was a brand new container. And this is how many times Jason decided he was going to. To test the microphone to see if it could pick up.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Double stuffed Oreos.

[Andy Holloway]

You can't. There are.

[Jason Moore]

There are at least 10 tests in here, looks like.

[Andy Holloway]

And I just. I think I'm gonna have to keep testing this.

[Jason Moore]

It's good that you're putting your mouth where your mouth is. Is that the. With Double Stuff.

[Andy Holloway]

Someone from Nabisco said they were gonna.

[Jason Moore]

Send us a case.

[Andy Holloway]

A case which I interpret as a crate.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, maybe he said. Maybe he said crate. A truck. A truck.

[Andy Holloway]

I believe it was Train.

[Jason Moore]

Train full of.

[Andy Holloway]

Setting a train full of Oreo. Double Stuff. Sorry.

[Jason Moore]

You will get so much love on this show if you send us a train car of double stuff. Yeah, but it's great. That was a.

[Andy Holloway]

For your review. We appreciate reviews. Our Foot Clan, which is the name of our fans out there, we just love you guys so much and we appreciate the Swag. Give us 5 star reviews on itunes or if you're on Android Stitcher, wherever you are. We really appreciate them. Helps us stay up in the rankings.

[Jason Moore]

And yeah, I sent out a bunch of Foot Clan decals this week.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Jason Moore]

On Twitter. Brand new decals for the Foot Clan. In fact, we've even got a Foot Clan. What is that, fiberglass?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

That was made. It's on our wall on.

[Andy Holloway]

Really? Everybody should be on YouTube right now because we are being very visual for a podcast, for an audio podcast.

[Jason Moore]

That's true. So thank you for the review. You can leave those on itunes. We appreciate them on Stitcher. Thank you so much for dropping us some love. All right, let's get into some news and notes.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

This is the part, the news and notes section, where Mike would want to chime in and say that there was some negative press about Joe Bell and the fact Detroit is a little worried about his health. Yeah, but he's not here. It's not. He's not here. Adrian Peterson, man, we. We have come a long way with Adrian Peterson since the beginning of this off season.

[Andy Holloway]

Long were the days we as Arizona Cardinal fans thought we were going to get a hold of ap.

[Jason Moore]

There was a chance.

[Andy Holloway]

Now he's locked in because even Dallas.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, he's going to Dallas.

[Andy Holloway]

A lot of people said next year he's going to Be gone.

[Jason Moore]

He's going to be cutting just a difference. So much of a difference. He. I guess the news is that he signed a contract. Restructure deal gives him 20 million guaranteed for two years. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Over the next two years he had no guaranteed money. Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

Which is what he wanted and what he was leveraging for. But he backed off so much from the, oh, you traded me bad fantasy wise.

[Andy Holloway]

This really just impacts Jerick McKinnon the most because a lot of people were really high, thought he was one year away from being able to step right into those shoes. And clearly, barring injury, he's just not.

[Jason Moore]

And the dynasty side of ap.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah, that's true in a sense.

[Jason Moore]

You know, we didn't know he was so unhappy seemingly and ready to leave. And now he's a Viking.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

And that team's pretty good. I think that team's pretty good.

[Andy Holloway]

I do too.

[Jason Moore]

One more bit of news here out of Denver, Emmanuel Sanders is expected to move. This is, this is big news. He's expected to move into the slot on three wide receiver sets. So this means that Cody Latimer is moving to the outside.

[Andy Holloway]

When I was looking up early, early, early pre draft, I was doing all the kind of post season stats and I really loved Emanuel Sanders. I mean, I looked at how he caught the ball, the routes that he ran, the positions that he played in two and three wide receiver sets and this is a big change. And this isn't so much a big change for Emmanuel Sanders. I still like him in a ppr. He might even go up. I could see emmanuel sanders with 100 receptions and a ppr this year. I don't have any problem with him, although I do think his yards per.

[Jason Moore]

Reception are going to come down and his touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

But Cody Latimer was not able to get on the field and of course John Fox was the coach. And John Fox hates rookies with a passion. I think he's got that like tattooed on him like rookie hate.

[Jason Moore]

No rookies. No rookies.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. Which is a big reason I'm a little bit down on Kevin White this year. But Cody Latimer is a very talented wide receiver who was drafted highly in one of the best wide receiver draft classes of all time. And now in a, in a three wide receiver set which are.

[Jason Moore]

Yep, pretty, pretty good quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

I think Peyton Manning is going to, I think I'm going to bold, predict hall of Fame. Yep, I think he's going to be hall of Fame. And so you have Cody Latimer on the outside, a talented receiver With.

[Jason Moore]

So compare Cody Latimer's potential this year with what we saw with Emmanuel Sanders being underdrafted last year. I know it can't be a perfect parallel. Emmanuel Sanders has been proven in the league, but we also hadn't seen a season from Emmanuel Sanders like we saw last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think the big difference, I.

[Jason Moore]

Mean, look at Andre Caldwell made plays on the outside for Denver and that's.

[Andy Holloway]

What it's going to be. Right. So I think Cody Latimer is going to be more of a standard league guy. You know, if you're in a non ppr, he's going to get those bombs for touchdowns. I think. I think he's going to have games where he puts up big, big numbers, but he's not going to be a week in, week out guy.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he's somebody we got to start talking about now. Which is, which is why this news is so big.

[Andy Holloway]

Before this news, to me, Devontae Adams and Cody Latimer were kind of neck and neck and now I take Cody Latimer.

[Jason Moore]

No, that's a good comparison. Justin Hunter has been arrested for assault.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, I mean, I don't like.

[Jason Moore]

Seeing people arrested for assault.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

But what I do like is when I am tempted in a small, tiny way to even care about Justin Hunter and he goes and does this and makes it really easy for me not to care about him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. No, that's a good point. Because he's not a good wide receiver. You have to be able to catch the ball as a wide receiver and.

[Jason Moore]

Generally those guys aren't getting arrested for assault or involved in those situations.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep, exactly. Because we saw anything for the rest of the. You know, it does a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

Kendall Wright is a bounce back candidate anyway.

[Andy Holloway]

For sure he's going to have an.

[Jason Moore]

Accurate Doriel, Green, Beckham. Eddie.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I've got bad news for me. Great news for you, Andy. Oh, yeah. And I'm so glad Mike's not here because he would rub salt in my wounds.

[Jason Moore]

Is it Mariota related?

[Andy Holloway]

It is Mariota related. I just, I just.

[Jason Moore]

You didn't. You.

[Andy Holloway]

I've been doing my stats and I actually have this, this is really.

[Jason Moore]

Let's tell the listeners we have a water bet.

[Andy Holloway]

We have a water bet. And I took a water bet against you two that Jameis Winston would finish the year with more fantasy points than Mariota. And I statted them out and I really looked deep and at the end I just, I wasn't even thinking about that. I wasn't doing those two guys I was doing everybody, and at the end, I looked.

[Jason Moore]

Mario is ahead.

[Andy Holloway]

Mariota's statted ahead. So I'm on. I actually disagree with my own.

[Jason Moore]

You have to hope you're wrong to be right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, exactly. So I'm gonna be rooting for Winston, but I don't believe it. And so this is one of the.

[Jason Moore]

Cool things I did the same thing.

[Andy Holloway]

With Forsetten, is that we try not to go on gut here. We love gut and gut matters.

[Jason Moore]

You've got one. I mean.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I'm working on it right now. Grow that gut.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I'm gonna start eating this now.

[Andy Holloway]

You're gonna talk for a second.

[Jason Moore]

I know. No problem. No problem. Let me. Let's transition to the other bit of news, and then I'll let you. We'll talk about that in the. My rankings. Yeah, okay. Because that'll come up. Le'Veon Bell suspension. Not a lot of update there. Obviously, everyone's paying attention to it, because right now it's three games, and that's impacting his. His position in the drafts. Roger Goodell basically came out and said he has no clue what's going on with the suspension.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's somebody else. I'm not dealing with that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we don't seem like we're closer to a change, but just keep that in mind. We don't have any update on the Lev Bell suspension. Obviously, if it gets cut down, I don't think it will be me either.

[Andy Holloway]

We're too close.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

We're too close to training camp and opening.

[Jason Moore]

There's too many other people to suspend. Justin Hunter's in the waiting.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Just a reminder to everybody out there if you're getting ready for fantasy football every single day. That would be daily fantasy sports.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it would.

[Jason Moore]

And FanDuel.com you go on there, you log in, sign up your account, use the promo code. Ballers get up to $200.

[Andy Holloway]

Big news on that, too.

[Jason Moore]

Tell me about it.

[Andy Holloway]

FanDuel has released their week one prices.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, did they really? Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep. You can get in there right now, get your deposit bonus.

[Jason Moore]

I gotta go. Yeah, I'm serious. I want to log in. Like, that's why I was talking about this for.

[Andy Holloway]

So anyways. Yeah, so I would definitely use our promo code Ballers. It helps you guys. Helps us. Gets you up to $200. So when you sign up, make your deposit.

[Jason Moore]

And do you see what is on my notepad right here?

[Andy Holloway]

Nothing.

[Jason Moore]

No, not nothing. What is that? That is a piece of your Oreo that has Come all the way across.

[Andy Holloway]

From the other side of the desk. I am such an impressive eater.

[Jason Moore]

That is, I have chocolate on my notepad.

[Andy Holloway]

Working on my gut instincts. But my point that I was saying earlier is that while gut matters, and it does, people that want to discount it, I think are wrong, because people have a history of good gut calls. But we do stat everybody out, and we are very analytical here. So sometimes, you know, for instance, on my gut, I don't really love Ben Roethlisberger, but I statted him out and he was my number five quarterback. And so I'm going to go with that over my gut.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's go ahead and talk some running backs. In today's show, I went through my rankings. I released a new set of rankings. Wide receivers, running backs, quarterbacks. And I came up with a new top five. Some things changed. Some guys went up and down, Even guys we're not talking about today.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, this is standard league scoring, right?

[Jason Moore]

Based on standard league scoring. So I've got my top five here. I want to get your opinion on them. I've got five guys. Maybe you'll be surprised, maybe you won't. But number five, we're talking about Jamal Charles.

[Andy Holloway]

J. Char.

[Jason Moore]

Now, he's going. I mean, he's in that top consideration there guys taking him at number one.

[Andy Holloway]

I think most lists have him at at about two. I think his average is about two.

[Jason Moore]

And so he's my number five. The big headline with him is he only got 206 carries last year. And so you can look at that two ways. Right? Warning sign. Because the offense just isn't giving them the ball enough or, wow, he did a lot with.260.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. He doesn't need as many carries to do what he does. And I think that that's more likely the situation is the fact that, you know, he's not going to all of a sudden get less carries than he got last year. And even with those carries last year, you know, he produced pretty darn good with that.

[Jason Moore]

High touchdown totals for low carries. He had nine touchdowns last year. Coming off a year before that with 12.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he's just a fan. I mean, he's a phenomenal running back. You watch him with the ball in your hand. And it was so frustrating last year as an owner, watching him not get the ball more. And then after the game, have Andy Reid say, you know, I should have got Jamal Charles the ball more.

[Jason Moore]

Like, it was tough.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I know.

[Jason Moore]

But despite that, 14 total touchdowns, because he's catching passes. I mean five. Five passing touchdowns last year, seven the year before. So back to back seasons of 19 and 14 touchdowns, regardless of your carry numbers, he's still averaging five a carry. And so I think regardless of the Andy Reid variable, he's a great running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's my number four. So we're both down just a smidgen on him than the average draft position. But I mean, still top five.

[Jason Moore]

It's very marginal. The difference here and again, we're talking about he probably comes up a little in a PPR for sure over probably my next guy on this list. So do you want to move on to number four?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Let's take a look who you got.

[Jason Moore]

Jeremy Hill is my number four overall running back. 222 attempts left. I know, know I, I don't have a tattoo to like tear my shirt off and display, but in a standard league, I think Jeremy Hill's the new Marshawn Lynch.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So this, it is a bold, A bold statement.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe that's the question that I wanted to bring up to you because the, the difference in our guys. You've got one guy off the list that isn't on your top five who is on mine. And actually, spoiler alert, he's my number one. Yeah, I think you're crazy.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

However, the one guy that I have in my top five that you don't is Marshawn Lynch. So really it's Marshawn lynch versus Jeremy Hill. New blood versus old blood. It's. Both of them are, you know, great. In a standard league, they project to score touchdowns to get the rock a lot.

[Jason Moore]

Is that one of those things where, I mean, they're still close in our rankings, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Jeremy Hill and Lynch, I mean, lynch could have been here for a lot of lists. He'll. He'll off this list. So is that a personality thing for a fantasy player where they want to put in what's been working versus what has long term upside? Is this gonna draw the line a lot in redraft versus dynasty leagues? I mean, what. How do you see those two guys? Because do you believe Hill is a future lynch type guy? You know, he's a first and second down goal line, good yards per carry between the tackle stud. I mean, 222 carries, nine touchdowns on the ground last year, 5.1 a carry.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I do. Very much so. In fact, in my rankings, when I looked at yours and I saw you had him at four, I mean, that's so high for a guy who really only came on half of a Year, last year. And I went back, looked at his game logs and looked at my stating for him, and I've got him in a standard league, I've got him Bloom, I've got him at number six. So I'm not that far off. And the question is really, who would you rather have tried and true. Which in my opinion, in a redraft league, if you're not keeping anybody, you can't keep anybody. At the end of this year, I'd much rather have Marshawn lynch because I feel like even though there's maybe minor question marks with lynch, like the fact that they lost their center, Max Unger's gone and Jimmy grand comes in, you still know what you have in Marshawn lynch. And they paid him a lot of money to take that ball. Whereas in Jeremy Hill. Jeremy Hill benefited from Gio Bernard's injury and then after he came back, still had a huge workload. But you have no guarantee yet that he's going to be the guy getting, you know, 275, 300 carries. If he does, he's going to be an asset.

[Jason Moore]

That's a projection. And that is. That is talent plus opportunity plus offensive system to me.

[Andy Holloway]

If I can keep a guy in my league, I go Hill over Lynch. I can't keep a guy in my league, I go lynch over Hill.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, and I don't. The one thing about lynch, too, is he's going to catch more passes than Jeremy Hill will.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And that's changed more in recent years.

[Andy Holloway]

But Jeremy Hill can catch. He just isn't used in that role.

[Jason Moore]

So the listeners understand then the difference that I have statistically with them has to do with touchdowns. I have Hill actually scoring two more touchdowns than lynch this year. And then I have him getting. I have him about the same amount of carries and I just have his yards per carry a little higher. So he's got a little bit higher total. Total carry number. So those things, they're so close. But he's my number four. Jamal Charles, number five. Jeremy Hill, number four. Number three. Was. Is he your number three too, or what is that?

[Andy Holloway]

No, his last name. Oh, Le'Veon Bell.

[Jason Moore]

Le'Veon Bell is my number three overall running back right now as of July 22nd.

[Andy Holloway]

He is, however, also my number three. So the Bell is very appropriate here.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we have a consensus.290 carries, 1300 yards, 4.7 a carry, 8 touchdowns on the ground, and he caught so many passes. 83 receptions on 105 targets, three touchdowns due to the Air. He was the workhorse of the team for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

He was the cog that made, I mean, one of the cogs, but he was really the centerpiece of the offense. He opened it up for the receivers. He took all the dump offs, and when you got the ball in his hand, he got, you know, yards every single time. So he's a valuable tool that I think they're going to miss for those first few games. And so I. My question really is on his knee.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I was going to say.

[Andy Holloway]

We barely talked about that last episode. You know, everyone worries about the suspension, and I think that that's something you can overcome in the draft. If you know you're drafting him, then you make appropriate picks later in your.

[Jason Moore]

Draft, maybe he becomes a value.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, exactly. Because if he wasn't injured, he would be everyone's number one.

[Jason Moore]

I think, without a doubt, one or two.

[Andy Holloway]

He. He was such a difference maker at running back last year. You just have to take the gamble that he could reproduce that. But with the knee injury, you know, is there any consideration for you? Let's say you're on the board and Le'Veon Bell's there and Marshawn lynch and Jeremy Hill are all there, is there any chance that you would say, I'm going to take one of those guys? Or in my case, my case would be easy.

[Jason Moore]

But I won't say that the answer is yes, because those decisions, these rankings aren't, you know, these are vacuum rankings. So if I'm in a draft, I know the teams around me depends on those type of things. I mean, I might not want to take a guy that's sitting for a quarter of the fantasy season.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

It could be as simple as that. Why? If a guy is statted so closely in your mind, why take the guy that could miss three?

[Andy Holloway]

I can answer that question for you. Why you would. And the reason you would is a wrong reason. It's because your sheet in front of you says he is higher than those other guys. And so that's what you're kind of bringing up. Don't be blind about your rankings. I make rankings and then when I go into a draft with those rankings, I sometimes reorder them, depending on obviously on the draft. But I'll take a look at the makeup of my team and those around me and say, you know, if this is a really competitive league and I'm going to have a struggle to make the playoffs, then I'm not going to take Le'Veon Bell because I want to make sure that I make the playoffs and don't just worry about winning the championship and that alone. And missing out on the playoffs and being an idiot.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, if you know that you are probably going to draft wide receiver with your second pick, your third pick, because of the way that your draft is going or the way that you think it will go with the other teams, your draft slot, what's available, then you, you make that decision. Do I really want my only running back that I can play to come in the fourth or fifth round? Yeah, for the first three weeks. So just like what you said, you have to consider those things. But Le'Veon Bill, I think at the end of the year, statistically the way I'm projecting him is number three.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And for you as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Me? Yep.

[Jason Moore]

So number two is Adrian Peterson. We talked about him in news and notes. It's not often a guy with 21 total carries last year ends up at number two on a ranking. But there is only one Adrian Peterson.

[Andy Holloway]

There is only one.

[Jason Moore]

And money is not his motivation on the field.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what's funny is that when I look at my top running backs, you know you've got a handful of guys, right? Five, six, seven guys that are top tier workhorse running backs. And each one of them I just basically put. How many question marks do I have behind them?

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

How many question marks do I have about Le'Veon Bell? I've got a suspension, I've got his knee, Jeremy Hill, he's young, he's got this Marshawn lynch, he's got Max Unger leaving, he's got Jimmy Graham coming in. I've got the question mark kind of category and that's almost my separator in those top guys. And it's so funny to me because I look at Adrian Peterson and I'm not even joking. The thing I love about him is that he has zero question marks to me, which is ludicrous because he should have question marks.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

He had a whole year off. He's old, but he's Adrian Peterson.

[Jason Moore]

The number that you need to pay attention to is seven.

[Andy Holloway]

Tell me why.

[Jason Moore]

Because that's how many consecutive years he's had double digit touchdowns in the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And over, I think 1100 yards or a thousand something.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. He had one injury shortened 2011 where he ended up at 970. But he is, as I mean, like you said, no question marks. I mean, Jerick McKinnon, if you want to know what Jerick McKinnon's role is, it's going to be to come in on third down every fifth drive. I'm serious. That's the.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely.

[Jason Moore]

You don't take Adrian Peterson off the field. You put him in a situation now with Norv Turner.

[Andy Holloway]

He's your clear goal lineback.

[Jason Moore]

He's your. He's your clear goal linebacker.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a good pass catcher. They've just utilized him.

[Jason Moore]

No, I mean, He's. He's caught 50. I mean, he's had 43 receptions, 40 receptions in the past. Yeah. And Teddy Bridgewater is there, and the offense is going to be better. Charles Johnson, guys around him. There's a lot of reason to believe that Minnesota will be in ball games.

[Andy Holloway]

Last time people doubted him, obviously, was when he had the ACL injury and people didn't want to draft him. And he came back and was a monster. Like not a human being.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

And then you give him rest right now. And he has a chip on his shoulder the size of Texas. And I really, really, really think. I mean, to me, he has $20.

[Jason Moore]

Million on his shoulders now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's my number two. And I really struggle when I've got that number one spot.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I struggle not taking Adrian Peterson.

[Andy Holloway]

I struggle not taking Adrian Peterson.

[Jason Moore]

I have him at 280 carries for 1400 yards, 11 touchdowns on the ground and up to 45 receptions in the air, which will be about. That would be his career high in receptions. He's done the 40, 43. But with Norv Turner there and what he's done with Ladanian Tomlinson in the past, the potential for Adrian Peterson and that team being in every ball game or a lot of ball games, I think sky's the limit.

[Andy Holloway]

Who else could possibly be stealing goal line carries from Adrian Peterson? That's all you need to know.

[Jason Moore]

Matt Aziata.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I totally forgot about Matt Aziata.

[Jason Moore]

You want to know what's funny? Is my number one guy, we're going to move to him right now, should.

[Andy Holloway]

Be Eddie Lacy, but is.

[Jason Moore]

It is not Eddie Lacy. Which means that Eddie Lacy. Just so everyone knows out there, I love Eddie Lacey. These guys are close, right? They get started out close. He's my number six. Okay? So he's out of my top five, which is why we're not about to talk about him. You talk about question marks. This next guy, I think has as. I don't think he has very many. And we'll debate this.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Arian Foster is my number one running back this year. No, it's not 2012. But Arian Foster is my number one back for this season, look, when he.

[Andy Holloway]

Played last year, he was an absolute game changer. It's the same argument of Le'Veon Bell, people that love him, because you are going to beat every other running back that you're going up against week in, week out. When he's on the field, he gets the carries. He is a phenomenal running back. The question mark, to me, I don't have many question marks. There's just one, but it's a bigger one. I've bolded that question mark in my font, and that is his injury.

[Jason Moore]

I understand that one. Last year he played 13 games. He got 260 carries, 1246 yards, eight touchdowns on the ground.

[Andy Holloway]

If he did that over 16 games, you'd be happy.

[Jason Moore]

If he did it over 16 games, we saw it in 2010, 327 carries, 1600 yards, 16 touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's. He is.

[Jason Moore]

That's the. I mean, that's what people think about Arian Foster. And the beautiful thing is, is we're going to bring in in a minute here. Number fires Joe Juan.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, let's. Let's talk to him and get his take, because this is really talking about Arian.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, because. So let's do it. Let's bring in Number fires Joe Juan. He wrote a great article and we're going to talk to him right now.

[Andy Holloway]

You talking to me?

[Jason Moore]

All right. The Fantasy Footballers podcast is excited to welcome in a friend of the show, the fantasy football scientist himself, Joe Wan. How you doing, Joe?

[Mike Wright]

Pretty good, Pretty good. Thank you for having me on.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely. Thanks for coming on the show. I'm gonna warn you right off the bat, I do not have any beakers or Bunsen burners. Is that gonna be an issue?

[Mike Wright]

No, that's fine. I brought my own.

[Jason Moore]

That's good. That's good. Joe and I are. We became fast friends. When? A couple of months ago, or I guess about a month ago, as I was sitting on my island in the middle of the ocean with Arian Foster as my top back. I see this article come across my Twitter and Joe hits me up and he sends me this link. And Joe and I both believe in Arian Foster this year.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, definitely. Definitely. I was. It was a pleasant surprise to hear you say that you also liked Arian Foster at the top of your boards. For a moment, I thought you were kidding, but Mike kind of try to goad you on and I know you were serious, so I thought I'd have to back you up on that.

[Jason Moore]

I know. I appreciate it. And I am starting to believe I am living in 2012 or something because my love for Arian Foster and my love for Calvin Johnson this year is making me think I'm just gonna read a board from about three years ago. But I just believe in these guys. I think, I think they're able to bounce back.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's, it's like the Chip Kelly system of buying players. Right. Kind of get them at a bargain and perhaps somewhat damaged goods. But you know, it's 2015 now. I think there's going to be a big bounce back and you're going to get these guys that really good values. You could have both on your teams easily now.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, absolutely. And this article that, that Joe wrote goes over a lot of kind of the, I don't know, the arguments that you hear against Arian Foster, which I get them, I guess, but they're the same type of arguments that seem to impact running back value every year and send certain guys down the board that end up performing like top tier talents. And that's what I think Arian will be this year, a top three guy. So let's talk a little bit about this Arian Foster. Last year he was a 12, he was over 1200 yards, eight touchdowns, ran for 4.8 a carry. But some of the arguments against him, they circle around a number of things. One of them is consistency. Right. There's a worry, I guess, that Arian Foster is inconsistent. And so what are your thoughts on that argument?

[Mike Wright]

Well, I think the inconsistency comes from most owners having Arian Foster not knowing if they're going to be able to play him on a week to week basis. Right. Your injury reports, there's groin injuries, there's a knee injury. But when he hits the field, when you know you can start him, he's putting up 16 points per game and in a standard league, 19 points per game in a PPR in four of the last five seasons, which only Adrian Peterson has done amongst all other backs.

[Jason Moore]

Isn't that the definition of consistency?

[Mike Wright]

Exactly, exactly. Yeah. You know, when you plot out the scoring on a points per game basis for the last five seasons for, you know, the top 10 backs in the being taken in drafts right now, there's this kind of tight grouping, you know, of scoring for Aaron Foster, you, you know on a weekly basis, what you're getting out of them and that's pretty much a top five running back performance.

[Jason Moore]

And so a lot of it is circling around. Fear of. So you hear, I remember this with Matt Forte a few years ago when he was kind of quote unquote injury prone. A lot of that was based on even weeks he started. You weren't sure if he was going to start. Right. Kind of the Marshawn lynch back injury that shows up, but he never misses because of it. And so there becomes this aura of fear around a guy. And so one of the interesting things that I think you pointed out in this article was this 75, 25 idea where the majority of Foster's points are.

[Mike Wright]

Coming from, where pretty much his yardage. Right. His receiving and his rushing yards. And actually he gets a fair amount of receptions for a running back just because he's pretty much all they have over in Houston. I think that's going to continue, if not more given, you know, who's their quarterback? Brian Hoyer perhaps? Ryan maybe?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we don't know.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, maybe. Yeah. But there's Deandre Hopkins in the passing game, right. And then you have Arian Foster as your likely dump off. So he's going to get those yards. He's going to get his yards on the ground and he's done pretty well in terms of touchdowns. I think I saw a tweet earlier today that said that last season Arian Foster was the seventh player in the last 20 years to score five rushing and five receiving touchdowns in a season. So, huh. He, he knows how to get to the end zone also. But having that stable floor of yardage is what's really, really appealing to me. You don't have to worry about a guy, you know, if he doesn't cross the goal line, he's gonna give you a goose egg on, on a game day.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean touchdowns, like you said that they're the fluctuating variable a lot of the times. I mean we see it all over the board from running backs to wide receivers. Jordy Nelson can catch 13, then he can catch 5. But yeah, that, that's a, an aspect I really like about Aryan. Now what about somebody who's arguing that he's, I mean he's been in the league for several years. When you, when we're talking about 2012, there's a reason, right? He had like a three year run in which he was the most dominating force in fantasy. Now he has come to, you know, he had an injury shortened seasons back to back years in some capacity. So is he on the, is he on the back end of his career?

[Mike Wright]

I argue that he's on the upswing. He's been in the league for six years. His rookie year he didn't get Too much play. And at numberfire we have these advanced metrics and I won't go into too much detail about it. We call it net expected points or nep. And the short story of it is if a player contributes to his team's chances of scoring, he gets a positive score. If he detracts from that, for example, he fumbles on a fourth and goal, you get a negative score. And if you track his efficiency, he's actually on the upswing from 2011-2012-2013-2014, both in terms of rushing and receiving. So it suggests that he might just be hitting his prime. And he just hit a rough patch early on with a couple of injuries.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I looked at that chart you had in the article and it was pretty impressive because you had his three year run. He slips down to the injuries, But I mean, 4.8 a carry, that's. That's great.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah. I think it was second only to DeMarco who's playing against that massive line in Dallas. Right. So absolutely. Definitely efficiency right there.

[Jason Moore]

So let's talk for a minute about that offense because one of the things we've talked about here on the show is the fact that you kind of want a running back that's on a winning team. You know, I think nine of the 10 teams or nine of the top 10 running backs last year were on teams that were.500 or better. I myself, I think Houston competes in that division just because of how bad the bottom half of that division is. Do you have any concerns with kind of the offense as a whole affecting Foster or affecting, you know, his play?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think that's definitely a concern. Right. It's if we can be super excited about Frank Gore being on the Colts. I think there's a concern about Arian Foster being on a bad offense, but with that being said, I think they have enough weapons to sustain drives. Their defense should be pretty good to keep them in games. Like you said, they're in a fairly weak division in terms of the bottom half. So in those games they're definitely going to be in that. So, you know, I think I have have them projected being a.500 team this season. So I. In that case, I think Arian Foster will be fine. And with that being said, Aaron Foster's been on the same offense for the last four or five seasons now, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

And he's produced year in, year out. If anything, he's one of those rare instances where, you know, he's getting the ball, but he has the skills, the athleticism to get the yards on the ground or through the air.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think he's, I think he's proving a lot of people wrong in this last couple year resurgence because a lot of people thought, you know, he'd burn bright for two or three years and a system change or some of the things he does with his body would kind of knock him back and end his career. But it's surprising me a little bit. But it's why I have him at the top of the list as well. What about workload this year? I mean, talk a little bit about what you expect from his workload and then also I want to get into kind of the handcuff situation there because it's a little murky.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, definitely, definitely. In terms of workload, I think, you know, other than his injury riddled 2013 season, he's averaged about 23, 25 touches per game. Like I said, he gets about three or four catches. Gets about 20 or so carries also. And you know, Brian recently said that if he's healthy, he's going to be the centerpiece of their offense and I, I believe him because really there's not much else to game plan around given that you have a somewhat inexperienced quarterback. If it's Hoyer, he's showing flashes of brilliance. We don't know what we're getting out of Mallet, so I think he's going to see pretty heavy usage this season.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So in terms of handcuffing, I'm ending up with Arian Foster in a lot of my mocks, a lot of my MFL 10 leagues obviously because he's slipping. I think when you had written this article you said he was kind of the RB7 off the board. So I'm ending up with him. So if I want to draft a handcuff, which for him I'm not sure I do or not. But if I want to draft a guy, is it Chris Polk or is it Alfred Blue or is it none of the above?

[Mike Wright]

That's a tough question. From what I'm hearing from camp reports, it doesn't sound like Blue nor Polk have really distanced themselves in that race. Personally, I don't know if I'd take a handcuff because I like to stash a bunch of sleepers on my bench. But if you are looking for a handcuff, I think the early bets on Alfred Blue to maintain that. Two reasons for that is one, he's, you know, he's already shown that he's.

[Jason Moore]

Been in the offense.

[Mike Wright]

He's been in the offense. Yes. And second, if you, if you watch their playing styles, I assume that they're going to go back to a zone blocking scheme in Houston. And you need a little bit of wiggle. You need some lateral agility to make that one cut move. And you see that with Blue, with Polk, it's more of a no cut. Just run straight down the middle, try to rack up yards, break a few tackles. Now the one advantage that Polk does have is he's the better pass catcher. Blue is a bit stiff in his route running from what I remember last season. So if they want an all around back, they might turn to Polk. And he's shown when he was in Philadelphia that he could also get the job done near the goal line and stole a couple of touchdowns when I had LaShawn McCoy last season. So.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. And they're both, they're both young guys. The thing that's tough about that is I'm kind of with you. I don't. If it's a guy like that who I'm not sure is a supreme talent, that's the handcuff. I mean, I'd rather be taking flyers on David Johnson or, you know, Matt Jones or somebody in the back half of the draft. But what's tough is that like you said, this offense runs the ball. And so if Foster does go down, you probably have a decent running back back there.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think, I think the question you have to ask yourself is if Foster goes down, which would you be happy starting? Alfred Blue or whoever becomes the starter every week. Right. And that's, that's the question that I have. And I'm not, I'm not too sure. I mean, last season when Alfred Blue was starting, you know, he was never a must start. Right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you're right about that. Well, the good news is Foster can't go down because I've, I've, I've booked my whole off season on Aaron Foster. So he'll, he'll stay healthy. That diet of his will keep him healthy and hopefully he has a really good year. Validates both of our opinions on him. He's certainly gonna have a better you than Amir Abdullah. Right?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, so Mike, Mike told me to bring that up with.

[Jason Moore]

Did he really?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I actually, I. Oh, he wanted.

[Jason Moore]

To talk some Joy or Amir. Oh, do you, do you?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I like, I like Amir. I mean, Joy, when you watch him, he's, he's very patient, great cuts and everything. But Amir Abdullah, you watch him play and he just turns heads.

[Jason Moore]

So I should be. Let me get your opinion on this then, is. Is Amir a three down guy?

[Mike Wright]

I think Amir is a three down guy. Well, I'm worried about his ability to pass protect given his size.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

But at the same time, for some reason, it seems as though Detroit doesn't really care about keeping Matt Stafford upright as it is. So they might just throw Abdullah out there, use them kind of like Javid Best. Right, Right.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You know, the, the running back that kind of lit everything up. Concussions, cut his career short. But that's. That's who I see when I see Abdullah out there.

[Jason Moore]

They're a pretty difficult team to project, running back wise, in my opinion, because we talked to Pat Mayo last week, and he's. He's more on the Joyk side. And part of that is because they kind of. Detroit seems to just do what they've done, and it's not. What's tough is when I take the side of Joyk in this debate, I feel like I'm, you know, like I'm the guy saying Amir Abdullah is not talented. And that's not the case at all. He's obviously extremely talented. I just kind of, you know, these guys like Joy Bell, they just kind of get work, and that's kind of what I'm seeing this year. I don't. I don't know how it will all transpire. We'll see what happens. I'm sure Mike and I will have some more spirited debates on it. But I want to thank you for coming on the show. Really appreciate it, Joe.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, thank you. Thank you. Thank you for having me.

[Jason Moore]

And make sure you follow Joe's stuff. It's on numberfire. He has great articles coming out all the time. You can also follow him on Twitter ffscientist. Thank you for bringing all of your science equipment coming on the show, dropping some knowledge. Appreciate it.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you. My pleasure.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Arian Foster, my number one. You heard it from Joe on there. You see some of the reasons why. We'll see if I'm right or wrong. But let's go and get into the mailbag.

[Andy Holloway]

Mailbag.

[Jason Moore]

Mail. Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

I had to let people know that Mike is the one that normally live mailbags. And I had.

[Jason Moore]

I'm ready to leave. Like, I can't be in here anymore. Like, the timing was all.

[Andy Holloway]

The timing was terrible. It was purposely terrible. I cannot be the hitman.

[Jason Moore]

You know, it's weird is when. When nothing came in, I felt like.

[Andy Holloway]

We played the wrong draw.

[Jason Moore]

I felt like something is wrong.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Well, let's go ahead and answer some listener questions. If you want to ask a question for the show, you can go where.

[Andy Holloway]

You can go to thefantasyfootballers.com and click submit a question. It's pretty easy. We literally have thousands come in and we really, really do work hard to try to answer every question that we can possibly answer.

[Jason Moore]

That is not a joke.

[Andy Holloway]

We don't. We just can't get to everyone. But we really try. That's our goal, is to answer every question that comes in. And we get 1,000 all the time.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we do. We make the effort. So we also can be reached via voicemail 302-464-TFFB and we're gonna start off today's mailbag section answering a coup voicemail questions.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, guys, this is Bo from Dallas, Texas. Love the show. Thanks for taking my question. Wanted to ask if you could name three running backs who are going in the fifth round or later, who you think are most likely to remain or become starters for at least a good portion of the season. So three guys, running backs, fifth round or later, who you think are going to be starters and, you know, outperform their adp. Thanks for your help.

[Jason Moore]

That's a great question. That is a great question because there are guys that are slotted in as starters right now that are going after the fifth round.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

One of them is TJ Eldon. TJ Yelden is moving up the draft boards a little bit, but he's still a middle of the 5th round pick in 12 team standard leagues. Is TJ Yeldin a guy that we expect to keep that role to get it first and to keep it?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's gonna get it and he's gonna keep it. I don't expect him to be necessarily a bell cow but definitely the starter and I can't see anyone else on that roster. I mean, Denard Robinson had a good little stretch, but they clearly don't love him because they had that opportunity and they drafted somebody and, and they, they don't give him any love. So I think TJ Yelden holds on to it. Here's another name that I love. He's one of my favorite guys right now. And I'm so surprised because last year I was completely avoiding the patriots backfield, but I actually really, really like LeGarrett Blunt this year.

[Jason Moore]

What's his ADP?

[Andy Holloway]

Right now he's in the back half of the fifth round.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, he's a great name.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's going to get touchdowns. He's going to be a goal line guy. He's Going to get the Rock a ton. There will be games that frustrate you because all of a sudden he gets five carries because of game plan.

[Jason Moore]

But he'll be the guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he is the guy.

[Jason Moore]

They want to run the ball and the older Brady gets, the more they're running the ball. And barring some knuckleheadness from Mr. LeGarrett Blunt, he should be the starter.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's two. Who else?

[Jason Moore]

You got names that other people are going to bring up are like Doug Martin and Bishop Sankey because they're both starters right now on their teams. I don't know if there's talent in Tampa to surpass Doug Martin. That doesn't mean I think Martin's that good. Yeah, it just means I think Martin might be the guy all year.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, in talentless situations, normally they don't retain the job not because somebody overtook it, but just because you have to make a change.

[Jason Moore]

That's a good point.

[Andy Holloway]

Losing games and then it's like, well.

[Jason Moore]

And throwing the backup forgotten man, Chris Ivory back of the seventh round right now. Are you kidding me?

[Andy Holloway]

Good, good value.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So, all right, this next question comes in from Eric S. From Cincinnati. It's a keeper question. Does he keep Aaron Rodgers or Lev Bell in a six point per passing touchdown, ten man league, otherwise standard scoring in roster with a flex spot. He also signs his note to us. Cincinnati Shredder. Can you say that?

[Andy Holloway]

Shincha Nadi Shredder. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So what's the answer here?

[Andy Holloway]

The answer is Levy and Bell.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Because the six point. Yeah, six point per quarterback, touchdown leagues, they don't really make that big a difference. So I would much rather have a tier one running back than a tier one you're not getting any value from, you know, later in the draft for your running back by comparison of what you can get with the quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Pretty simple too. Where would they go? Yeah, where are they going to go in the draft? I hope Love Bell goes before him. All right, this next question comes in from El Capitan in Hawaii.

[Andy Holloway]

From Hawaii.

[Jason Moore]

You know who? El.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I was going to say we got Mike on vacation. I think that we should answer this question from a native. Andy. I think we should call Mike right now and interrupt his vacation and terrorize his family time because he's having so much fun.

[Jason Moore]

You know, I don't have any. I don't have any bad feelings for a person in Hawaii.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's do it. All right. Let me get Skype open here. Let's see what I Can figure it out. All right, I got him going. Let's. Oh, hold on. Wait, Listen to this. Let's dial him up.

[Andy Holloway]

That's very nice.

[Jason Moore]

Let's call him up.

[Andy Holloway]

The Hitman in Hawaii.

[Jason Moore]

It is ringing.

[Andy Holloway]

Hope this works. Pick up.

[Jason Moore]

Come on, buddy.

[Andy Holloway]

This is bad podcast. If it doesn't pick up. Oh, he'll pick up.

[Jason Moore]

Hello?

[Andy Holloway]

There he is. Who?

[Mike Wright]

Who is this?

[Andy Holloway]

You've been selected as a finalist on.

[Jason Moore]

You're the 11th caller, buddy. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

We're recording live, but recorded.

[Mike Wright]

How did you get this number?

[Jason Moore]

Hey, I know you're probably got your toes in the sand, but do you want to help us answer a couple questions real quick?

[Andy Holloway]

This question's coming in from Hawaii, Mike. It could be in your hotel.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I can help with the couple, I suppose. I'm getting my son on over.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's do it. El Capitan from Hawaii. He wants to know how good is Chris Ivory. He had a few good spurts last year, but there's a new regime in New York City.

[Andy Holloway]

New York City.

[Jason Moore]

He'll start. I assume he's available in the late rounds. Is he worth it? What's he worth?

[Andy Holloway]

What's a hitman say?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I like Ivory as a late round running back. He was very touchdown dependent last year, so if he didn't score, he wasn't really worth anything. But he's still a starting running back who's going to be available very late. And I think Chan Gailey really improves the offense over there. We've talked about the jets, how we kind of like their skill position players, and I like them to score a bit more. So I would absolutely take Ivory in the later rounds.

[Jason Moore]

Let me ask you this, how many touchdown hula dances is he going to do this year?

[Mike Wright]

Well, I don't think Ivory is known for his hula, but I would. I see him scoring in the seven to eight.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think that's where I've got them too. Yeah, I do. I think that there was a stretch last year where Chris Ivory was actually pretty valuable as soon as Chris Johnson stopped existing. And so this year, with Chris Johnson leaving town, I think Chris Ivory is one of the most underdrafted guys and he is super unsexy. But at the same time, that's the type of players that help you win when. If you go running wide receiver, wide receiver in the beginning of the draft, you need a starting guy, not an upside guy, but you get a starting guy late. Chris Ivory is a perfect pick.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Let's, let's ask Mike a couple more here while we've got him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, vacation time.

[Jason Moore]

Tough to distract him from the sandy beaches. Todd from Indiana wants to know he's in a 10 team standard keeper league and he wants to pick two of these guys. Russell Wilson for a 10th, Rob Gronkowski for a two or Jamal Charles for a one. And he notes that every time he does keep Charles, he's extremely thin at wide receiver, which ultimately, I guess that's more the cost of the first round pick. Right. Because he doesn't have wide receivers to pick in this group. So Russell Wilson for a 10, Gronk for a 2, Charles for a 1. What say you?

[Mike Wright]

I would take Gronk in the second. Even in a 10 team, I think that's a valuable spot to get him for higher than he would go in the draft. Especially in standard Charles in the first. I mean, you're not getting value, so to speak, but if you like him, there's no problem locking him up there. For me, and I faded a little bit on Russell Wilson over, over the time just of how much he'll actually have to produce on his feet. But in the 10th round, that's, that's a great place to take him.

[Jason Moore]

So pretty close.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you're basically free for a guy who was a top three. Was he top three last year?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, in standard leagues he was.

[Mike Wright]

So I don't mind taking him there. So I would go Gronk and Wilson.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I would go Gronk and Wilson as well.

[Jason Moore]

Me too. All right, let. You got time for one more, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

One more. I got an appointment to ride a dolphin here. Let's get this going.

[Jason Moore]

Wait, wait, are you talking like Devonte Parker or Jay Ajayi or.

[Mike Wright]

No, the clicky, squeaky kind.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, okay. Well, we'll let you get to it, but one more. This one's from Patrick. He writes in from Las Vegas and He is in a 3 wide receiver PPR league. No flex. Is wide receiver in rounds 1, 2 and 3 a viable and recommended strategy? And how early should he target Kelsey because he knows he won't get cronk?

[Mike Wright]

Everything is really a viable strategy because it's always about hitting on a good amount of players in the draft. So if you're getting. If the draft is dropping elite and awesome wide receiver options to you, then I don't have a problem with it. I still am old school. I like to take a running back at least in the first two rounds, but I've seen people be successful with going Wide receiver heavy. If you're going to do the three wide receivers, Kelsey, I don't know if I would target him. Yeah, it depends on the pool of running backs that are left.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, you're committing four early picks then to non wide receivers, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, exactly. And you're going to have to load up on running back where it's. Yeah, you can still hit with those backup guys if there's an injury or an opportunity shows up. But you're. You're taking a little bit more of a risk in hitting on. You have a lower percentage chance to hit on those guys than with the earlier guys.

[Jason Moore]

You agree with that, Jay?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think it was well said. Any. Any strategy can be viable, but if you. I actually think the problem is going in with the direct strategy of I'm going wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver. That's not a good strategy. It's only good strategy if those wide receivers fall to you and you're like, man, everybody's scooping up other players. Quarterbacks and tight ends are going off the board, you know, so these elite wide receivers are dropping to me, then grab that wide receiver. But you know, three wide receiver leagues aren't that uncommon. It's very common for a 2 running back, 3 wide receiver and a flex. And in those, I would not want on my team personally to go through three rounds without a running back. That. That's just. I'm not a 0rb type of guy, so I would not enjoy it.

[Jason Moore]

Well, one. One last quick question, a personal one for me to you, Mike. Okay. Has any of the. The time to get away brought you closer to Joy Bell at all?

[Mike Wright]

I would not say that it's happened.

[Andy Holloway]

Too much sun exposure.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I would say my skin is burnt and nothing over here has changed my mind for an old injured man, especially the news that's coming out lately.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, we're not going to. That's all the time we have for Mike right here on the Fantasy Footballers. Mike, go get that Jeremy tattoo out in the sun.

[Andy Holloway]

Bring me home a dolphin.

[Mike Wright]

Got some pretty good tattoo artists here. So I'm gonna finish it up and then we're going volcano paragliding where we ride the heat vents up into the atmosphere.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that sounds about right.

[Andy Holloway]

Tell me that's not a real thing. It may or may not be.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, thanks for letting us interrupt your vacation. Get back to it. We'll see you soon.

[Mike Wright]

All right, see you guys.

[Jason Moore]

Bye bye.

[Andy Holloway]

There's no vacation. There's no vacation from the fantasy footballers? No, we're a 24 hour a day, anywhere on the globe type of group.

[Jason Moore]

So Mike Wright checking in despite. Oh, there he goes. There he goes. Officially.

[Andy Holloway]

Bye bye.

[Jason Moore]

All right, this next one comes in from Jonathan in Chicago. He says, with a late round draft pick, is it more important to handcuff a star or try to find a gym? Thank you. Love the show. This, this question I just got on Twitter. I'll let you know. Actually, I didn't get the question, but I got a mock draft and I pulled up somebody's mock draft, was reviewing it for them and they had drafted Arian Foster and Jonathan Stewart as their first two running backs. And in like the 9th and 10th round, they took Alfred Blue and Cameron Artist Payne back to back.

[Andy Holloway]

I love it. I love.

[Jason Moore]

Are you serious?

[Andy Holloway]

I love that.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, my goodness. If you unring any bell that we have.

[Andy Holloway]

Turn that upside down.

[Jason Moore]

Turn it over. Yeah. Turn it upside down.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. We're on opposite side. Here's my opinion to this question. The answer to this question is it depends on your roster. If you've got solid guys who are playing and you know, you know they're going to. They don't miss games and they're solid, but they're not superstar potential, then you take the rare gyms, you, you go for guys like a David Johnson or you go for guys with a.

[Jason Moore]

That's exactly what I told him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you go for a guy with a high upset. If, however, your players are guys who have a little bit of risk there, then I like mitigating risk with my lighter picks. So.

[Jason Moore]

But are you, are you mitigating it with Alpha Blue? Well, I mean, we heard, we heard what Joe Juan said earlier.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Alpha Blue is a good question. I disagree. I think Alfred Blue, when he comes in, will be able to be better than whoever you're going to pick up off of the waivers. Put it this way. When, when Arian goes down, I'm going to make.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to put you.

[Andy Holloway]

When Arian goes down, is Alpha Blue going to be a fabulous pick up? Like crazy?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So I would draft him, but if.

[Jason Moore]

I got him on my roster, let.

[Andy Holloway]

Me ask you then, the Aryan owner.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, Alfred Blue or David Cobb?

[Andy Holloway]

Alfred Blue.

[Jason Moore]

If I were Devontae Freeman.

[Andy Holloway]

David Johnson, David Johnson, I would take David Johnson over. Well, Reggie, I like Reggie Bush, I like David Johnson and Jay Ajaya, I like those three guys. Everyone else, I would take Alpha Blue over them.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the thing.

[Andy Holloway]

But the thing is you don't have to take Alpha Blue there.

[Jason Moore]

You can get Alpha Blue's that's what I was gonna say. Their Alfred Blue and camisardis Payne are 12 and 13 round picks.

[Andy Holloway]

You get those guys with the last positional pick of your draft that I.

[Jason Moore]

Don'T mind so much. To me it was the eighth, ninth pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you said ninth.

[Jason Moore]

I mean ninth and tenth pick. Where. Okay, so maybe that's where the line starts getting drawn.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I do agree that you high.

[Jason Moore]

Deteriorate and you're saying I like specifically Jonathan Stewart and Aaron Foster are the two most injury prone or fearful guys. So that's a good question.

[Andy Holloway]

I actually have an MFL10 where I drafted Arian Foster and Jonathan Stewart and I got Cameron Harris Payne and Alfredo.

[Jason Moore]

You and this guy should go off of Froyo. All right, reminder to everybody, if you want to mock draft, be sure to check out fantasydraftwizard.com we get such great feedback. We promote that a lot. Just because that's what we do our mock drafts with.

[Andy Holloway]

I do them every single day.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And that's what we do our live mock draft shows with. It's free. You just go to fantasydraftwizard.com you can choose PPR. You can choose standard. You draft against the consensus rankings of experts. You can draft against the Yahoo or ESPN adp. It takes about two minutes.

[Andy Holloway]

You can even if you've got a keeper league you can port in and say what picks oh yeah, people have in certain rounds and set it up to your league.

[Jason Moore]

It's you set the account up and just put all those names in there. So check out fantasydraftwizard.com and a reminder.

[Andy Holloway]

Ballers.

[Jason Moore]

Ballers. Use ballers, the code when you sign up on FanDuel. This just in, you can get ready for week one, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Can you believe it? Yes. Football.

[Andy Holloway]

And Mike would be sad from Hawaii if we didn't mention to go to at the league fxx and say put the footballers on the final season of the league because you know, you got new hotness and if you love the.

[Jason Moore]

Show, which every fantasy football player really enjoys the league and this is their final season.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Farewell tour.

[Jason Moore]

And Mike, I mean his life is going so terribly right now in Hawaii that you got to give him some reason to believe. So remember, go to heleague fxx, let him know. Make Mike happy. We miss him. He'll be back next week. Do we miss him?

[Andy Holloway]

You know, I think the show is okay, but goodbye. Thank you for listening to another edition of the fantasy footballers podcast. Don't forget to visit us on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com and follow us on Twitter @the ffballers.