Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Wide Receiver Studs, Duds, Values, News and Mailbag

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Episode: Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Wide Receiver Studs, Duds, Values, News and Mailbag

Release Date: April 2, 2015

Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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1. Introduction: April Fools' Day Antics [00:00 – 03:03]

The episode kicks off with the hosts venting their frustrations about April Fools' Day. Mike Wright shares a personal anecdote about his sister's distressing prank, leading Andy Holloway to express his strong disapproval:

Andy Holloway [00:24]: "April Fools has been banned in my house."

The trio humorously corrects each other’s mistaken references, establishing a light-hearted tone before steering back to their primary focus: fantasy football.

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2. News and Notes [03:03 – 09:39]

a. Running Back Movements

• Jacquez Rodgers to Bears:
  Mike Wright highlights the ongoing exodus of Falcons running backs, specifically Jacquez Rodgers signing with the Chicago Bears.

  Mike Wright [05:00]: "The exodus of running backs from the Atlanta Falcons continues with Jacquez Rogers signing with the Bears."

• Matt Forte's Decline:
  Jason Moore connects Rodgers' move to concerns about Matt Forte's future performance, anticipating a drop in his rushing yards due to increased pass usage.

  Jason Moore [05:10]: "Matt Forte... he's going to drop a lot on his yards."

b. Wide Receiver Updates

• Nate Washington and Cecil Short with Texans:
  The acquisition of Nate Washington and Cecil Short by the Houston Texans is discussed, with Andy Holloway emphasizing Washington’s reliability but Mike Wright questioning his fantasy consistency.

  Mike Wright [06:07]: "Nate Washington sounds like a guy... He's pretty reliable."

• Geno Gradkowski to Broncos:
  The move of Geno Gradkowski to the Denver Broncos is scrutinized, focusing on his past performance and the uncertainty of his role.

  Andy Holloway [07:42]: "How is that possible? ... a Pro Football Focus grade as the worst center in the league."

c. Quarterback and Player Health

• Dennis Pitt's Injury:
  Sympathy is expressed for Dennis Pitt's injury situation with the Ravens, with speculation about his potential return and the impact on team dynamics.

  Jason Moore [09:07]: "We know that they're looking at Rob Hausler as Cincinnati is as well."

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3. Wide Receiver Analysis: Studs, Duds, and Values [09:39 – 47:00]

a. Studs: Top Performers Expected to Excel

1. Julio Jones (Jason Moore) [10:12 – 16:45]

   • Overview: Jason Moore touts Julio Jones as a top-tier stud, highlighting his impressive 1600-yard season with over 100 receptions and six touchdowns.

     Jason Moore [12:04]: "He has every bit of the chance that any other receiver has to finish the year number one."

   • Supporting Statistics: Andy Holloway notes that Julio managed to accumulate significant yardage despite playing 150 fewer snaps than his peers, underscoring his efficiency.

     Andy Holloway [11:05]: "He is still very elusive. ... primed for a lowest of a top three season."

2. Jordy Nelson (Andy Holloway) [16:45 – 20:42]

   • Overview: Jordy Nelson is praised for his consistency and high yards-per-reception average (15.3), making him a reliable pick.

     Andy Holloway [17:15]: "His floor is always very high."

   • Performance Insight: Jason Moore emphasizes Nelson’s steady improvement and undervalued ADP, positioning him as a top-five contender.

     Jason Moore [17:22]: "He gets no respect."

3. Andre Johnson (Mike Wright) [20:42 – 25:30]

   • Overview: Mike Wright highlights Andre Johnson’s potential resurgence with a new quarterback, projecting him to secure around 900 yards and maintain his reputation as a top receiver.

     Mike Wright [21:36]: "He's a lock for 90 and 1,000."

   • Future Prospects: Andy Holloway concurs, noting Johnson’s historical consistency and recent health improvements.

     Andy Holloway [23:31]: "If he stays healthy... he's over a thousand yards every single year."

b. Duds: Underperformers to Avoid

1. Mike Evans (Jason Moore) [27:18 – 32:33]

   • Overview: Mike Wright expresses concerns about Mike Evans' high draft position relative to his touchdown dependence and uncertain offensive environment under new quarterback Jameis Winston.

     Mike Wright [27:20]: "He's a monster... but has many question marks in that offense."

   • Risk Factors: Jason Moore questions Evans' touchdown sustainability, suggesting his high ADP may not be justified.

     Jason Moore [29:17]: "He's going to poop in his big boy pants."

2. Jeremy Maclin (Jason Moore) [34:08 – 37:13]

   • Overview: Jeremy Maclin is identified as a dud due to his declining performance and questionable future production with a new offensive system.

     Jason Moore [35:31]: "He's going to be at 800 yards and five touchdowns."

3. Kelvin Benjamin (Mike Wright) [37:20 – 39:26]

   • Overview: Kelvin Benjamin is criticized for his inconsistent yardage, low catch percentage (53%), and dependence on touchdowns, making him a risky draft pick.

     Andy Holloway [38:10]: "He averaged 2.4 yards after the catch."

   • Comparison: Vincent Jackson is used as a benchmark, highlighting similar stats but with fewer touchdowns, reinforcing Benjamin’s dud status.

     Andy Holloway [39:13]: "I take Jackson all day."

c. Values: High Potential Later Picks

1. Vincent Jackson (Jason Moore) [40:58 – 42:37]

   • Overview: Jason Moore recommends Vincent Jackson as an eighth-round value pick, expecting his touchdown numbers to rebound and capitalize on consistent yardage.

     Jason Moore [42:37]: "Vincent Jackson is going to be a very good wide receiver too next year."

   • Historical Performance: Jackson’s track record of over 1,000 yards in multiple seasons supports his value proposition.

2. Jarvis Landry (Mike Wright) [43:59 – 45:06]

   • Overview: Jarvis Landry is highlighted for his increasing targets and PPR potential, making him a steal in the sixth round despite not being a superstar.

     Mike Wright [44:34]: "He's coming into his second year... I'm going to take Jarvis Landry."

   • Consistency: Landry’s steady performance in the latter half of the previous season signals potential for higher productivity.

3. Eric Decker (Andy Holloway) [45:38 – 46:56]

   • Overview: Eric Decker is praised for his role as a number two receiver and potential boost with the arrival of Brandon Marshall, marking him as a valuable late-round selection.

     Andy Holloway [46:35]: "Do not sleep on Eric Decker going that low in the draft. That's ridiculous."

   • Performance Metrics: Decker’s consistent yardage and touchdown potential make him a strong candidate for value drafting.

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4. Mailbag: Draft Strategy Discussion [47:00 – 57:54]

Listener Question: Wide Receiver-Heavy Draft Strategy [48:35 – 56:26]

A listener, Derek B., inquires about adopting a wide receiver-heavy draft strategy after experiencing busts with running backs in previous seasons.

• Andy Holloway’s Perspective:
  Andy advises against a rigid WR-WR-WR strategy, emphasizing the importance of securing top-tier running backs for a competitive fantasy team.

  Andy Holloway [51:04]: "If you want to win a championship, you need a top 12 running back."

• Jason Moore’s Counterpoint:
  Jason references an article by John Paulson suggesting wide receivers may offer more reliability after the top two RB picks, yet he remains cautious about the emotional and strategic viability of a saturated wide receiver approach.

  Jason Moore [53:51]: "If you're going to win a championship, you need a top 12 running back."

• Hosts’ Consensus:
  While acknowledging the potential value in wide receivers, the hosts collectively agree that a balanced approach, prioritizing running backs while remaining flexible to draft value picks, is essential for building a championship-contending team.

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5. Closing Remarks [57:00 – 57:54]

The hosts wrap up the episode by encouraging listeners to subscribe, leave reviews, and engage with them on social media. They preview next week's episode, which will feature consensus wide receiver rankings and more in-depth analysis.

Jason Moore [57:42]: "What I appreciate most about these dudes... that type of banter proves intellectually productive and I agree."

They conclude with a friendly sign-off, thanking listeners for tuning in.

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Key Takeaways:

• Stud Receivers: Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Andre Johnson are highlighted as top-tier wide receivers expected to deliver strong fantasy performances.

• Dud Receivers: Mike Evans, Jeremy Maclin, and Kelvin Benjamin are cautioned against due to inconsistent performance and high dependency on certain game aspects.

• Value Receivers: Vincent Jackson, Jarvis Landry, and Eric Decker are recommended as late-round picks with high upside potential.

• Draft Strategy: Balancing running backs and wide receivers is crucial. Prioritizing top-tier running backs can provide a significant advantage, while remaining flexible to exploit wide receiver value picks can enhance team depth.

• Community Engagement: Listeners are encouraged to participate through reviews and social media, fostering a collaborative and informed fantasy football community.

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This episode offers comprehensive insights into wide receiver evaluations for the 2015 fantasy football season, blending statistical analysis with expert opinions to guide listeners in making informed draft decisions.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foreign.

[Jason Moore]

To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

It is Thursday, April 2, and we are back again.

[Jason Moore]

No more April Fools jokes.

[Mike Wright]

I'm glad we skipped that day because that would have just been painful.

[Andy Holloway]

April Fools has been banned in my house.

[Jason Moore]

I would have made non stop bad jokes.

[Mike Wright]

I can't tell you how much I hate April Fools.

[Jason Moore]

I love April.

[Andy Holloway]

I despise it.

[Mike Wright]

I hate April Fools even more since Facebook existed because yesterday I was with my brother and sister and now they'll probably be mad at me. But she said that she played a joke that they got in a car accident. We're in the hospital.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not funny.

[Jason Moore]

How.

[Andy Holloway]

How is it. How is it funny to trust? Is this such a fragile thing that you spend a lifetime creating with one person Right then. So I've created this trust with you that you believe what comes out of my mouth. So why would you not believe what I tell you?

[Jason Moore]

Because. Because you get a day.

[Mike Wright]

It's April Fool's Day because you get.

[Jason Moore]

A day to break trust and get away with it.

[Mike Wright]

We talked. Welcome to the show. By the way. This is the Fantasy Footballers.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we usually talk fantasy advice, but April Fools is ridiculous. Yeah, you haven't seen the Brandon Oliver take from last week. Tonight. Watch it. It's fantastic.

[Mike Wright]

Brandon Oliver.

[Andy Holloway]

That's his name, right?

[Mike Wright]

That's the name of the running back for the San Diego Chargers. I think you mean John Oliver.

[Andy Holloway]

John Oliver. Hey, we're fantasy. So at least I got it wrong.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm here. Andy Holloway. Mike the hitman breaking down April Fool's Day. The fantasy hitman.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's the worst.

[Mike Wright]

And Jason Moore. Say hello.

[Jason Moore]

Hello.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we, we talked about this yesterday. Anything that, anything that is over the line like that is crazy. Although I did see a really funny Katie Couric on the Late Late show pretended to fall down the stairs. They had a stunt double come in.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, like on an entrance.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, on an entrance. They have these big stairs. They walk down and then. And she walks out and she just tumbles and he comes running over and he was absolutely terrified and got him pretty good.

[Andy Holloway]

But there was a Seahawk player I trying to remember. Okay, so it was. It was Bruce Irvin. Did you guys hear about this one?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's how hilarious Bruce Irvin is. About 5:30 in the morning, he tweets out. Before it breaks publicly, I just want to apologize to my family, my team.

[Mike Wright]

Come on.

[Andy Holloway]

Basically implying that he got arrested for a dui.

[Mike Wright]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

And then hours, a couple Hours later. Oh, did you guys believe that? Like, why? How is that funny?

[Mike Wright]

Did you see the. The one with Greg Jennings where he.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He tweeted that he had a new team.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And then no one really cared.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the joke's on you, Greg Jennings.

[Mike Wright]

And then he's like, no, I don't. Yeah, help me.

[Andy Holloway]

We know you don't have a team.

[Jason Moore]

And Aaron Hernandez is all like, I didn't kill that guy. April, moving along.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah. We're gonna talk some news and notes today. Believe it or not, there was quite a bit of. There was some news between Tuesday's show and today. Today we're gonna talk some wide receivers. We're gonna bring you our consensus rankings next week. We just got done talking running backs, but today we're going to talk some studs, some duds and some values based on where guys are going right now. We're also going to hit the mailbag. If you enjoy the show, if you like what we're doing here and you want to support us, go ahead and go onto itunes, click that subscribe button and drop us a review. We really appreciate it. You can also follow us on Twitter ffballers or visit us on the web at the fantasy footballers.com in between shows. We actually did. We did come to an agreement on a waterbed, did we not, Mike?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Let's discuss that and formalize it here, because in front of the world. In front of the world, so that they know how wrong you will be. This is the second bet you've made with me.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, no, no, no. You're blanketing me. The first bet is. Is between your youself, you, self. Yousef.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, me and Jason. Okay, so Jason and I did the Sammy Watkins versus Mike Evans.

[Jason Moore]

Right? I've got Mike Evans.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. And so now you're piling on to Sammy Watkins with this horrendous bet.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

Go ahead and share the bet.

[Andy Holloway]

The bet is a straight up fantasy production. Jordan Matthews versus Sammy Watkins.

[Jason Moore]

Water bet.

[Mike Wright]

Put it on the. Put it on the board. Put it on the big water bet board. We are. I'm happy to take all Sammy Watkins related bets, apparently, which just makes me artificially seem too high on him, which I'm not. But. Yeah, let's do that. I'll take Watkins vs Matthews all day long. Anything else going on?

[Jason Moore]

Just some news.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The exodus of running backs from the Atlanta Falcons continues with Jacquez Rogers. Jaquiz. Is that how you say it? Jaquiz?

[Andy Holloway]

I believe.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Signing with the Bears. Do we care?

[Andy Holloway]

Nope.

[Jason Moore]

It just further cements to me of a fall for Matt Forte. But I mean, you've got, you've got.

[Mike Wright]

To, you know, you're saying. Forecasting his numbers coming down.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You have a lot of thoughts on this?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I just think Matt, I mean, Matt Forte last year was in Trespan's offense and caught, you know, 700 catches. He's. He's going to drop a lot on his yards there and you know, going and getting a pass catching back is just further indication of that.

[Andy Holloway]

I like. Yeah, now I see your logic. And then that's. That's decently sound. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. He was only 3.8 to carry last year. Matt Forte.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And made up for it with 100 catches. So 105, was it somewhere around there? 100, 105. Regardless, it was in the triple digits and we don't expect that to continue. Nate Washington, Old reliable Nate Washington, 8. Yeah. Signs with the Houston Texans that wide receiver core is changing. It's a changing.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So saw Cecil Short sign with them earlier this offseason. Nate Washington.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, just thinking what the depth chart is. So you got Hopkins one. So you would put Washington on the outside and Shorts in the slot, do you think? Yeah, probably Shorts in the slot in Houston going where he's going because Shorts is going to go at the end of the draft. Don't sleep on Cecil Schwartz if he's getting to play the slot.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Nate Washington sounds like a guy. I, you know, I like him as an actual player in the NFL. He's pretty reliable. He's a good real life wide receiver. But it sounds to me like he's the kind of guy in fantasy that I'd have to get lucky to have picked the two or three weeks that he has.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He'll be just some decent relevance. Yeah. Matt Schaub, everybody's favorite quarterback, signs with the Baltimore Ravens and he's perfect to start in leagues that start five quarterbacks. So look out for him.

[Andy Holloway]

Minimum.

[Mike Wright]

Minimum five. Yeah. Nothing to see there. Steven Ridley to visit the Jets. We talked about him on Tuesday. Miami.

[Andy Holloway]

I hope that does not happen to the Jets. To the jets, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Why?

[Andy Holloway]

Because I like Steven Ridley and I just don't think that is an optimal place for him to have Fanny's fantasy production.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. He's basically the same exact player as Chris Ivory, is he not?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Any thoughts on that, Jason?

[Jason Moore]

None.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. Broncos. The Broncos acquired center Geno Gradkowski from the Ravens. And Mike, you had some thoughts on him basically revolving around C.J. anderson and Peyton Manning.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I had read that. And so 2013, Gradkowski started all 16 games for the Ravens and Pro Football Focus graded him as the worst center in the league. The next year he played 10 snaps before losing his job. And as of now, he is the favorite to be the starting center for the Broncos.

[Jason Moore]

What's happening?

[Andy Holloway]

How is that possible? This is just what I read off of Rotoworld and.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he was with. Around Kubiak in. In Baltimore. So they're saying.

[Andy Holloway]

Who's that?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I'm sorry, the Kubes. Yeah, he was with the.

[Jason Moore]

Hashtag Kubes.

[Mike Wright]

He was with the Kubs in Baltim and must have been a real gentleman to be around on the practice field. Just a treat.

[Andy Holloway]

But do not underestimate the impact of a center on a running game or for Peyton Manning for that matter.

[Mike Wright]

Is that another Alex Mack related?

[Andy Holloway]

Alex Mack, Max Unger. If you look at teams who can run, it's because they have a strong center.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And last bit of news here is not really too much news, but still don't know anything about Dennis Pitt. I just kind of feel bad for him. So I just wanted to mention him because in the. In, you know, our condolences. Our condolences to Dennis. But the Ravens are quote, praying that he returns in 2015. We know that they're looking at Rob Hausler as Cincinnati is as well.

[Jason Moore]

Was that a quote from. From them?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Wow. I thought that was a joke quote. We put in our show notes like they must be praying for him to return because they're talking to Rob Hausler.

[Mike Wright]

No, I think it's more one of those out of the hands of the team, in the hands of the medical professionals. We're just going to pray that he gets cleared somehow.

[Andy Holloway]

Rob Hausler on the Ravens with Tressman.

[Mike Wright]

Really?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Rob.

[Mike Wright]

What doesn't he have to still in any offense? Will Rob Hauser actually have to catch the ball though?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's the problem.

[Mike Wright]

Won't he actually have to put his mitts around it and then secure it and then run?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, but he. But he's big and has speed with other hands.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean the potential. I guess I burnt out on the potential of Rob Hausler, but we will see. You're probably right. Any other news, any other headlines you guys want to discuss before we get into our wide receiver talk today?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I think we're good.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. So today, like I said, we're going to talk wide receivers. We're going to look at some guys that we're fans of. So we're going to look at. What do you want to look at first here? You want to take a look at the studs?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, let's start. So when we say studs, we're talking about guys who are being drafted in the upper echelon who we believe will.

[Jason Moore]

Finish there and are going to help you win a championship, hopefully finish above there.

[Mike Wright]

So let's do it.

[Jason Moore]

Stud muffins.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I was expecting much more of a striper scream from you on that one.

[Andy Holloway]

You got to get into it, man. You can't come out with your pants down.

[Mike Wright]

Don't even know what that means.

[Andy Holloway]

Means you got. You got to escalate. You got it.

[Mike Wright]

You're saying you're building up.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I'm crescendoing.

[Mike Wright]

You're just warming up the vocal cord. Red leather, Yellow leather.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right.

[Mike Wright]

All right, so who wants to take. Who wants to share their stud first? So who's. I kind of wanted to get on your case here, both of you, because your guys were so high on the regular ADP list anyway, so.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, I went with. We can talk about Julio. My man, Julio Jones. We talked about him. Never heard of a couple times on this show before I chose him as. As the stud because, you know, normally here for the wide receiver show, we're going through our top guys anyways. We're talking about the top guys, talking about why we've ranked them at the top. And so here's a guy that I believe has every. Every bit of the chance that any other receiver has to finish the year. Number one. And he's not being drafted number one. So this is my. My stud. This is a guy I really hope gets on my team is Julio. Julio. Here are some. Thank you. Here are some reasons to love Julio Jones other than he's a beast. He's just a fantastic wide receiver. Has been since he's been in the. In the league. He's 26 years old right now. He is still growing into his man body. He.

[Andy Holloway]

My man body's growing horizontally.

[Jason Moore]

He's also going to be in a contract year. In addition to everything else, he's coming up on a contract year where he's going to play through whatever injuries he's going to stretch out for that extra touchdown, get the big contract. Last year he had 1600 yards, which was a career high for him, but is easily replicatable and over 100 touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, catches 100 touchdowns?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, he got into.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to come down from 100. I was about to say touchdowns is the difference between regrets and a really big yes.

[Jason Moore]

Well, that's, that's where my brain was going.

[Andy Holloway]

Is, is that regression?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, slight regression from his hundred. Well, that's the big thing is that.

[Mike Wright]

He only had six project 100 touchdowns. Jason Moore.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, under, under. I'm taking in, you know, 90s.

[Mike Wright]

He played 15 games last year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, so he lost. He lost a game last year and still put up 1600 yards, over 100 reception receptions and had six touchdowns. There was a huge drought in the year. Andy, I know you were lamenting this through the year where he just didn't ca touchdowns and it was almost a freak occurrence. Also, keep in mind that this is a player who has put up double digit touchdowns before his, his sophomore year in the league. He put up 10. Kyle Shanahan coming in. You know, just think about what he did, you know, when he had Andre Johnson. Kyle Shanahan's been comparing Julio Jones to Andre Johnson back in the day. And I think that they're going to get the running game going a little bit better, which from a touchdown perspective will actually help Julio get into the end zone this year.

[Mike Wright]

So tell me why, why are they getting there? Is it just the offensive line improvement to fix both equations? Because that was the problem that I saw on tape last year when I watched the Atlanta Falcons. I saw Matt Ryan not being able to settle into his, into his drop, settle into the pocket. And then, you know, Julio is a downfield guy. He's a 15 plus per catch guy, I believe.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. And 15.3.

[Mike Wright]

So if he can't get into his breaks because Manning's in that situation, that's what I saw as the biggest struggle last year myself. So if you have him as your stud, does that mean that you. Are you taking him over? I mean everyone Calvin.

[Jason Moore]

No, I'm not taking him necessarily over everyone. I've got him projected right now to finish number two. I think that's, that's where I've got him finishing up.

[Mike Wright]

So who's your number one? Just so we know, my number one right now is.

[Jason Moore]

No, it's demarius Thomas.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

As far as projected to finish, I wouldn't necessarily draft him number one either.

[Mike Wright]

The reason that Julio's going behind Calvin demarius Odell Beckham, Des Bryant, Antonio Brown right now. And that's why he's your stud.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, that is. You just named the reason. He is my fantasy stud muffin.

[Andy Holloway]

I would love to Can I get the mic now? So here's. Here's something I found interesting about Julio Jones. Julio Jones was in top five yardage. He had the third most yards in the league. Let me read you the other guys and their snap count and see if you can see a discrepancy. Brown 1084 snaps. Demarys Thomas 1053. Jordy Nelson 980. Sanders 1032. Julio Jones 887 snaps. You take the other top four. They average 1037 snaps. That's 150 snaps less and he was the third most yardage in the league. He is. He's still very elusive. He tied for fifth in in missed tackles. He had 16 to speak to Kyle Shanahan. Here's what Kyle Shanahan has done with his receipt fantasy wise with his receivers. Andre Johnson 2008 2nd 2009 Andre Johnson, number one. The best of under Johnson's career. Which kind of set the stage for him being the fantasy fantasy God. Moves to Washington. 2010 Santana Moss. This is Santana Moss 19th, 2011 garcon 20 seconds. Jabbar Gaffney 25th. So not, not totally a wide receiver too, but essentially two wide receiver twos right there. 2012, the. The game changed a bit for Washington. It got spread around too much for them to really have a top wide receiver and Alfred Morris was taking everything. But then 2013, Garcon was 13th. He led the league in receptions with 113. So Kyle Shanahan with Julio Jones I believe is primed for a lowest of a top three season.

[Mike Wright]

That's a good take. Yeah, those snap counts, that's almost. I mean that's probably two plus games. It's almost given. Give him two more games on his stats last year. Give him another touchdown, give him another 10 catches, give him another couple hundred yards and he's already finishing in the top two. Top three.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I found when I was doing the research on the snaps, I thought that was actually like a shocking piece of information to be that much lower than everybody else.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I remember him missing. Missing a little game for me in my fantasy playoffs. That was a delight. So Mike, let's go to. I want to go over to you and your stud because your guy is actually in the same boat as Julio where they're currently going 6 and 7 back to back in ADP right now.

[Andy Holloway]

No respect. Your guy is Jordy Nelson.

[Mike Wright]

White Chocolate.

[Andy Holloway]

I thought that nickname was claimed.

[Mike Wright]

It probably is Williams from basketball.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So Jordy last year finished ninety eight, fifteen hundred yards and thirteen Touchdowns, he had one hundred.

[Mike Wright]

Give me those again.

[Andy Holloway]

Ninety eight catches, fifteen hundred yards, thirteen touchdowns. Now here's the deal with Jordy Nelson. Fifteen and a half yards per reception. That puts him third best of wide receivers who have seventy five or more catches. He was fifth in yards after the catch five hundred and fifty eight. The. For some reason there's a little knock on Jordy because it was 2012, he had some hamstring issues, but for the past two years he's been dominant. Last year he was 85, 1308, still had 120 targets.

[Mike Wright]

Now if I recall, since you cleared your throw, that means I can jump in and ask you a question. If I recall, what hurt him a couple years ago is he had a big touchdown year and then he came down off of that touchdown year.

[Andy Holloway]

Within he was also injured, but 2011, he finished second. Just off the top of my head, he was amazing.

[Mike Wright]

So what, where do you project him then? If you have him at seven, if he's seven right now in adp, do you have him in the top three? You have.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean top three might be a stretch, but top five. Absolutely.

[Jason Moore]

He was, he was so great this last year. And I looked up and I thought, okay, well, you know, it seems like every time I turn on a Packer game he was catching a 70 yard slant pass for a touchdown. And so I wanted to see what is, what is. You know, yards per reception are. And his yards after catch and see if those were just like inflated. And I went, I went back, you know, till his rookie year. And the thing that is so awesome about Jordy Nelson is that his stats on those statistics continue to rise year by year or stay near the peak. I mean he, it wasn't, it wasn't a freak year and you said it perfect. He gets no respect.

[Mike Wright]

I don't, I don't think he earned respect last year. I don't think anybody has him off. I mean, calling him a stud, but. So he's not breaking news.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but the respect of a guy who's finished second twice in his career, to be going seventh, I mean behind quarterback, behind Beckham is just ridiculous.

[Mike Wright]

I agree.

[Andy Holloway]

A guy, he's done it for half a year.

[Mike Wright]

I agree.

[Jason Moore]

And he's only 29, still in it. He's not, he's not old and past anything.

[Andy Holloway]

No, he's going to be able that exact same value pick where you can get him the back of the second round or second half of the second round and, and you're gold.

[Jason Moore]

And if you are playing in A league that gives bonuses because I would say seems like the majority of leagues give bonuses for, you know, over 40 yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Jordan Nelson for a touchdown.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah. High, high quantity of receptions has the trust of the best quarterback in football.

[Andy Holloway]

And another fantastic thing about Jordy Nelson, when you're watching the game, you can be frustrated for three quarters and it just takes one play for Jordy Nelson at all. It, no matter when he is in the game, there's always the, the option for that one play which is the same route every single time. That little the the what is like the sluggo. He run, you know, he cuts it in and he scores. So your fantasy points just skyrocket. His floor is always very high.

[Mike Wright]

All right, so you had Julio Jones, you had Jordy Nelson, couple of top 10 locks, but guys that have the potential to be in that top three range. I took a guy that, he's a stud to me because he's a guy who's being drafted outside the top 24 in some cases or just barely inside. But he has the potential, in my opinion, and we've talked about him before, to be a top 10 type of wide receiver, especially in a PPR league. And so my stud is Andre Johnson. Andre Johnson, last year he actually, I don't know if this will be surprising in one direction or another for you guys, but he had 85 receiver last year, 936 yards. That's obviously not an impressive stat line, but it's also a little higher than I think some people might have perceived him in their heads. He's a year removed from 109 yard, 1400 plus yards. Did I say 109 yard, 109 catch, 1400 yard season, he had 100 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Who would say that?

[Mike Wright]

Clearly they were phasing him out of this offense. He wasn't happy last year. The quarterback play wasn't something consistent and his numbers were still, I mean his target numbers I believe were down over 50 targets last year, but he still put up a 85, 936 year and he's just 33 years old. So one of the things that I talked about earlier and the reason he's my stud is because I watched Reggie Wayne come into that offense in that type of role and put up a hundred plus catchy or put up 1300 plus yards. And so what it'll come down to, in my opinion, he's a lock for ninety and a thousand. Okay. To me that's, that's a done deal. He's a lock for 90 and 1,000. But is, is he going to get in the end zone? And if he gets in the end zone enough, I think, and that's my projection, right. I believe he will get in the end zone enough in that offense to be a top 10 type of whiteout. And you're going to draft him in that, in back of the, you know, top 24 position. So that's, that's why I like Andre Johnson. I know it's going out on a limb a little bit but what are your guys thoughts on Andre and that offense? Do you think that there's not enough to go around? What are your thoughts?

[Andy Holloway]

I completely agree with your assessment. If he stays healthy. The health has always been a question for Andre Johnson. He has seven years where he played a full 16 games, five where he's missed time. Where the lock is, is if he plays 16 games he gets over a thousand yards every single year he's, except for his rookie year. So the other five he was over a thousand. The touchdowns are a question but that was probably offense related because he's never had a double digit touchdown season. So. And just to loop back, loop back around to the health. The previous two years he has played the, the full, the full schedule. Last year he only played 15. But so in recent, if you're going with recency bias, he has been healthy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he, that's what I was, I was going to mention that. So I'm glad you did. I think he plays a full 16. I think that you're not going to have him taking on number one coverage. He's had the best defender on him for his entire career and I think from game to game you might see that this next year. But I don't know that he's not going to have the number one guy on him as a lock playing out of the slot. Exactly. And so his catch rate has been up in the, his percentage of catches on targets has been in the 70s before and this last season it was down near 60 which wasn't what you know, he's had a couple near there but his drops were the same this year as any other year. He didn't go down which leads me to believe strongly that it was quarterback play that that was the big difference for him was are these catchable balls? And if you think okay his, the guy that's going to be guarding him is going to be less good than who he's used to and the guy throwing him the ball is going to be easily the best quarterback he has ever played with in his entire career. He's never played. I mean, Matt Schaub is the best he's ever had and now he's going to Andrew Luck on a high power offense. I love the idea of him being there. And you want to talk about a gigantic chip on your shoulder. You're, you're a borderline hall of Fame player that was just told, hey, you're going to get like, you know, 50 catches this year if you stay. Yeah, if you, if you stay. And he's like, peace, I'm going Andrew Luck, I'm going to get 100.

[Andy Holloway]

And correct me if I'm wrong, I believe he plays his former team twice.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he does. And you might want to go ahead and play him on those teams.

[Andy Holloway]

You might want to pencil him, him in for.

[Mike Wright]

Let me ask you boys, this Ty Hilton at the top of the third round or would you rather have Andre Johnson in the middle of the fifth?

[Andy Holloway]

Ooh, that's a team dependent. If I went rbrb, I'm going to take Hilton for sure. But.

[Jason Moore]

That'S easy for me.

[Mike Wright]

Clearly Hilton's way above Andre to you because your value otherwise, because you got a two round gap there. So to you you're saying you still have Hilton way above him, which I don't blame you. I'm just, you're on board with the consensus, which is fine for me.

[Jason Moore]

I'm more in the boat that I assume you're in. Andy. I think that you just have a much better value and I don't see the gap being gigantic between these guys to get Andre in the fifth. I would much, much rather have Andre in the fifth than Ty in the third.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I also curious what you guys thought.

[Andy Holloway]

On that where you guys, which is factual, think Andre Johnson's game will improve because of Ty Hilton. I think because of Andre Johnson, Ty Hilton will also improve.

[Mike Wright]

Fair enough.

[Andy Holloway]

They have to worry about somebody else.

[Mike Wright]

Fair enough. So there's our studs. We had Mr. Julio, Mr. Jordy Nelson.

[Andy Holloway]

No respect, he's running Dangerfield.

[Mike Wright]

I do admit he has not received that because you saw that in the draft last year where you know, Brandon Marshall and guys were going ahead of him and you kind of look at the situation, you go, okay, Aaron Rodgers is pretty good and he's got. This is his number one receiver, right.

[Jason Moore]

He's finished number two twice.

[Mike Wright]

Like he's this guy on the outside and Rodgers is going to throw for this many yards. But nobody wanted to like make the math equation that okay, his number one receiver is going to probably provide those statistics. So let's Move it on.

[Jason Moore]

Hooped in his big boy pants.

[Mike Wright]

All right, let's talk some fantasy duds this year. I'm going to go first on this one because please do. I only. I have a soft dud. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Pooped in his big boy pants with some.

[Mike Wright]

I have a soft dud because depending. I don't know if we all did the same thing with, with the guy that we think is our dud. Now for us, we're thinking a guy that is being drafted in a certain position and is more likely to finish much lower, Much lower than that. Okay. However, I'm not, I'm not supremely confident in this. I just want to share some concern that I haven't. So my guy is Mike Evans.

[Andy Holloway]

Mm.

[Mike Wright]

Second year wide receiver Mike Evans. Last year he was 68 catches for about a thousand yards, but he had 12 touchdowns. 12 touchdowns. He is a monster. Don't get me wrong. My disclaimer here is that I think Mike Evans is a absolute great wide receiver. He's 6, 5. He's a monstrous beast and will be great for years to come. If you're in a dynasty league, you should do a dance if you have him on your roster. That being said, my concerns have to do with where he's being drafted and the risk that is involved with Evans compared to some other guys. He's going as high as the top of the second round, all the way through to the top of the third. And so he's being drafted as a top 12 guy. And I, you know, he certainly could finish there, but I personally am not spending a second round pick on a guy who has this many question marks in that offense. Now, we can all assume the quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

There will be Jameis Winston.

[Mike Wright]

Jameis Winston, right. And so I don't know what he's going to bring to that offense and I don't know what Levy's going to want to do to protect him, to develop him. And I think Evans is simply very TD dependent. And so I expect that if he regresses in that department, he's not going to carry enough volume to justify his current adp. And so, you know, part of this has to do with do you want to take Evans in the second or third round or do you want to get Vincent Jackson in the seventh or eighth round where. Hey, hey, I know.

[Jason Moore]

Don't stab my thunder, Mike. Mike Evans caught a touchdown every five and a half passes. Every five and a half passes thrown to him was for a touchdown, which.

[Mike Wright]

Could easily be a point in his favor.

[Jason Moore]

No way is that a Point, I mean. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Would you rather somebody catch less touchdowns?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, regression alert.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's a regression warning there.

[Jason Moore]

If you think that he's going to continue doing that for his career or even just for another year, it's ridiculous. So you have to take his touchdown totals and move them down. Maybe he makes that up with extra yards and all that. But like you said, there's, there's question marks and to take him as you know, I think right now he looks like he's going as the 12th wide receiver off the board. He's, he's a wide receiver one. He's going as a wide receiver one. And when you draft a wide receiver one, you need him to finish there. And if he finishes as a wide receiver two or three, your fantasy team's hurt.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to kick it over to Mike because I know he's some thoughts on Evans because he was looking into this as well. I actually don't think where he's being drafted is a problem. I think for what he did and what he could do, it's, it's not that bad. I just for me and my teams there's a risk mitigation for my wide receiver number one. And so I see worry there because you don't have the consistency in the offense, you know, the consistency at quarterback and you have other guys that can contribute there. So, and, and just knowing Lovey Smith and how much he's going to air it out, obviously Glennon slung it a little bit last year and that was beneficial to Evans, but 12 touchdowns versus 68 catches, it's just a little bit, a little bit frightening to me. So Mike, what were your findings in Evans? Because I know you looked into him.

[Andy Holloway]

When I, when you explained, hey, I think my dud, my soft dud will be my soft dud, Mike Evans. I initially thought, yeah, here's a candidate for touchdown regressions. I knew his catches weren't very high compared to his, the, to his touchdown ratio. So I, so I looked into him. Here's the deal with Evans. He only had 116 targets. That's, that's not, that's not high. That's not the normal wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

One target like Demarius gets 185.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. And so what he did with those targets was spectacular. You know how many drops Mike Evans had coming? These are passes from Josh McCown and Mike Lennon. He had four drops. The normal is about seven. So he has been. Well, just, I'm saying that he has great hands but fewer targets.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, you just said that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, but he has fewer targets, but not as quality targets. He had, he was a 15 and a half yard per reception guy. Now the, the kicker for me is you want some consistency with your wide receiver. One, he had a three week stretch from week seven to week nine where he was a beast. Seven for 124, two touchdowns. Next week, seven, 125 yards, one touchdown. The next week, the masterpiece of his work, seven catches, 209 yards, two touchdowns. These were not three games sporadically placed within his season. These were lined up. These were with Mike Glennon. The next week is when Levy Smith, the genius thought I should go Back to Josh McCown. And that's when things started to go more downhill for Evans after he was ascending into superstardom.

[Mike Wright]

Well, seven catches a week puts him at 112. He got about half that on the year. I'm just saying you see his potential. I don't think we disagree with that.

[Andy Holloway]

The potential is there and the potential for cash consistency is there. And it's, it's not just touchdown dependent. He's going to get Jameis Winston, who I think we're all pretty high on him. We like him as I like him.

[Mike Wright]

Future quarterback, right.

[Andy Holloway]

And here's just a couple things to realize about Winston. Winston has a big arm. His freshman year he averaged 10.6 per attempt. The 8.4 the following year and he is accurate. His freshman year he was 67%. The following year 65%. So you're getting a guy who can sling the ball down the field accurately. Then they, he just had his pro day and they said the shining point of his pro day was the deep ball when he was in the pocket. And that's where Mike Evans, he excels, that he's, he's not a yards after catch guy. He is a in the air. I'm going to make a superstar circus catch and come down and score too many touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

The shining point of Jameis Winston's pro day was when he threw the sideline seam route and ran his wide receiver into the ESPN tables. And his reaction afterwards was like, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Go look that vine up, we'll post that to our wall.

[Andy Holloway]

But so just in my last point about dropping the pen, I mean the last point about Mike Evans, where he's, where he's being drafted, if you go running back, running back, he's going to be kind of your last chance to grab a wide receiver with the potential to finish in the top eight or so. That just coming off the board with the knowledge that we have.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, Jason, who's your dud? Who is, who's the guy that you're down on?

[Jason Moore]

I have already lamented and mourned him this year, but I have to still go with Jeremy Macklin. It might seem obvious but for where he's being drafted. Well, no, no. Not only is it, is it, yeah, it's obvious to us. It's not obvious to everyone and it's clearly not obvious to everyone based on where he's being drafted. He's still being drafted 22nd. Yeah. So as a, as a, as a top two guy. Right. So you've got a wide receiver to draft. You're drafting him as your second receiver and here is what you're going to get from Jeremy Macklin. Jeremy Macklin has a career of one season over 1,000 yards, which was this last season. He has averaged the rest of his entire career 863 yards a year and that is on an, on a high powered Eagles offense. Last year he had seven plays over 40 yards, seven single plays over 40 yards. How many do you think he's going to get with Alex Smith? I'm going to put the over under at zero and I'll take the under on that.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know. I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, maybe he gets one, maybe he gets one this year. I mean if I put the over under at one, would you take zero or two for over 40 yards from.

[Mike Wright]

I would take two.

[Jason Moore]

That's. Now that's a bold prediction.

[Mike Wright]

How bold?

[Jason Moore]

Not water bet bold.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

But my point is he's never, you know, Andy Reid in his entire career, 16 seasons has had four receivers in the life of him as a coach that have had a thousand yard seasons. Jeremy Macklin has average other you take out last season he's averaged 863 yards. So I have to say with Alex Smith, he's going to, he's going to be at 800 yards and last year he had double digit touchdowns which he's clearly not going to get from the Kansas City Chiefs that just finished an entire season throwing zero. So I'm giving him five touchdowns. Okay, that's, that's, you know, five more than the entire team had last year and 800 yards which is about what his mediocre career.

[Mike Wright]

We take Andre Johnson over Jeremy Macklin, you take Martavis Bryant over Jeremy Mac.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Here's Robert woods from Buffalo is 700 yards and five touchdowns last year. Greg Jennings finished with 742 and six touchdowns last year. That's Jeremy Macklin. So if you want that for your wide receiver too? Go ahead and draft them.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So I was going to say the Macklin's best season under Andy Reid, he would have finished 24th last year. His average season, which Jason was alluding to, he would have finished 34th last year. That's because in his average, he has seven touchdowns. Will the touchdowns be there for Alex Smith? Last year, Dwayne Bowe was the highest net, the highest yardage wide receiver on the, on the team. 60 catches, 754 yards, zero touchdowns. Why were there zero touchdowns? Because a wide receiver didn't catch a single touchdown the entire year. On the Kansas City Chiefs.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's a, he's, he's a dud. He's going to poop in his big boy pants. But congratulations on your money.

[Mike Wright]

There you go. Mike, who is a guy you've been talking about for a while. Let's hear your undressing of Kelvin Benjamin.

[Andy Holloway]

So I went with Kelvin Benjamin. A lot of people seem to be on top of him because his stat line was 73 catches, 1,000 yards, nine touchdowns. Not bad. Not bad. It was enough to finish. I can't remember off the top of my head, but he was the top 20 guy. He had three games, three entire games of over 100 yards. He had seven games without a touchdown despite his huge output in those games. Once was he a wide receiver. 2. Once was he a wide receiver? 3. The other five times he wasn't even a wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

4.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

The only Newton game where Benjamin had. There was only one. Let me correct myself. Only one game when Cam Newton was under center, did Benjamin have over 100 yards when Cam Newton was the quarterback the entire game.

[Mike Wright]

I remember a lot of garbage time points for Kelvin Benjamin.

[Andy Holloway]

Newton got Benjamin over 80 yards twice.

[Mike Wright]

So touchdown mirage. That's what you're saying?

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. You know how many yards he averaged with Newton as the quarterback? 54.

[Jason Moore]

Do you want to know what his catch percentage was on the year? Kelvin Benjamin. Great. Kevin Benjamin. 53%. That's.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, he had the drop last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

That's not a wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

He had 11 drops. He, he averaged 2.4 yards after the catch. That puts him as a bottom 10 player. I did some looking for a comp, so let's. Because I wanted to find a guy with those stats, but lower touchdowns. You know who I found from last year? Vincent Jackson. Check out, check out these numbers. Here's Jackson, 70, 1002. Benjamin. 73, 1009. Vincent Jackson. 138 targets. Benjamin, 142, they have almost an identical catch percentage. Identical yards after catch, identical longest catch with 50 yards, saying almost identical snaps.

[Mike Wright]

So who do you take, Vincent Jackson or Calvin Benjamin? How low are you on?

[Andy Holloway]

I take Jackson all day.

[Mike Wright]

So what's the difference between the eighth round and the.

[Andy Holloway]

Because Vincent Jackson finished as the wide receiver 38 with almost identical stats. You just take away those touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Well, let's look. Hey, this is a perfect segue. So value picks. We're talking now about wide receivers that we're going to draft later and we're going to get a great value of. And my pick for that on this list is Mr. Vincent Jackson, your comp. So it's ironic that we've got two guys picked, one is a dud and one is going to be a value. But Vincent Jackson is going in the eighth round. You can get Vincent Jackson in the eighth round. And I believe Vincent Jackson is going to be a very, very, very good wide receiver too next year. I looked up and the biggest reason is because of touchdowns. Here is minus the one year in 2010, Vincent Jackson was injured, only played five. Only played five games. Other than that, seven years running, he's had over 1,000 yards every single year. And here's his touchdowns in that span as well, minus that 2010 game. Seven touchdowns, nine touchdowns, nine touchdowns, eight touchdowns, seven touchdowns. And then last year, last year he pretty much didn't get in the end zone and so he dropped the deuce. Yeah, he had two touchdowns. That's. That is the outlier, that's the aberration. That is the thing that stands out that's going to correct itself. Now here is why I know it's going to correct itself. I went back and looked at every quality quarterback that's been drafted in the last few years. So the guys that I went and looked at their rookie season, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Matthews. Just the guys that have put up good years.

[Andy Holloway]

Matt Ryan. Not Ryan Matthews.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Thank you. Yes. Typo. Yes. Matt Ryan.

[Andy Holloway]

Unless he was drafted out of position.

[Jason Moore]

And I didn't know Ryan Matthews, the best throwing running back of all time. So here's the one thing they all had in common. Andrew Luck. The bulk of his targets went to Reggie Wayne over Ty Holton, who was on the team. Granted he was younger, right. He's got a young future stud or he's got an old proven bet. They all went to Reggie Wayne. Russell Wilson. The bulk of his targets went to Sydney Rice over Golden Tate, Aaron Rodgers. All of his targets went to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver instead of Jordy Nelson, who was on the team.

[Mike Wright]

I missed Donald Driver.

[Jason Moore]

And Ryan Matthews, running back for the San Diego Chargers, who also quarterback to the Atlanta Falcons. All of his passes, I mean the dominated the targets. Was Ronnie White, the proven vet that there was a video of. Who was he talking to? Mariucci. Where James Winston. So we're assuming Jameis Winston is going to be the quarterback coming in and he was talking to to marry Uchi on a like, you know, on a mock interview for being drafted. And he's drawing these plays up and he mentions like, okay, well so I'll have Jerry Rice over here. And Mariucci's like, you're not going to have no Jerry Rice. And he goes, well then let's just say I throw it to Vincent Jackson. And I'm just saying that's going to be his outlet guy. When he is scared he's a rookie, he's going to go to the old proven vet. And so long term, I like Mike Evans, but I think, I think Vincent Jackson is going to be a beast this year. He's going to get the touchdown looks and so getting him in the eighth round.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, here's a lot of guys. Here's some guys are going, going ahead of Vincent Jackson right now. Brandon lefell, Michael Floyd, Torrey Smith, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz, Kenan Allen. So some names that you could definitely see. Jackson, Jeremy Macklin. Lighting in front of Jeremy Macklin. Yeah. Golden Tate, Julian Edelman, Jordan Matthews. So good take on that. My value guy is Jarvis Landry. I think this is more significant in half ppr. PPR leagues overall. Yes, but he's being drafted right now. Between the fifth and the eighth rounds last year he had 84 catches for 750 yards and five touchdowns. He definitely was Tannehill's go to guy. But here's my big point and what I like to see in value and this is something I think all fantasy players should take a look at. He averaged only five targets a game for the first half of the year. He was a rookie. He was getting his feet wet. In the second half he averaged nine targets a game as the trust grew. And so for he had five plus five or more catches. So this is why I say PPR, five or more catches in each of his last eight games. And I think he can get to that 10 and over, you know, point per game mark making him kind of a steal in that sixth round. He's not going to go out and get. He's not a 10 touchdown type of guy. I'm not saying that, but I like Jarvis Landry because he's coming into his second year and because of what I saw in the field from a trust perspective. So he's my guy at value.

[Andy Holloway]

I completely agree with the the caveat of the PPR in that span you of his. The final half of the season, four games he had double digit targets which is spectacular for a PPR guy. However, he can't be a superstar wide receiver with only nine yards per catch. That has to go up if you're expecting him to make the jump into the upper echelon. And so I believe with Landry, perhaps his ceiling is capped, but his floor is low and he will be a consistent player. High, yeah, I apologize.

[Mike Wright]

Floor is high.

[Andy Holloway]

His floor is high as his ceiling is low. He lives in a duplex of PPR points.

[Mike Wright]

There you go. Duplex of ppr. Jason, any thoughts on Landry?

[Jason Moore]

I see him last year his stats finished where I'm projecting Jeremy Macklin to be this year. He had about 800 yards, five touchdowns around there. And like you said, he didn't really wasn't involved the first five games of the year. So he's got nowhere to go but.

[Mike Wright]

Up I think 100, I think 100 catches.

[Jason Moore]

I think he gets 100 catches over and I think over a thousand yards and six touchdowns. That's going to be great for where you're getting them.

[Mike Wright]

All right, Mike, your value pick. Let's close out this wide receiver section. Who do you think has the best ability to return an investment much higher than where he's drafted?

[Andy Holloway]

The guy I'm looking at is Eric Decker who is currently. I remember him being taken as the 43rd wide receiver off the board. A guy who finished 28th.

[Mike Wright]

That's a wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

Four. Yeah, yeah. Who returned high level wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

He finished 28th last year despite having hamstrings injuring him the entire season.

[Andy Holloway]

And Geno Smith, I mean, yeah, I.

[Jason Moore]

Knew that, but I'm just saying I'm pointing that out for your sake.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you. Thank you. So here's why I like Eric Deckard. Because last year as the number one, he put up 74, almost a thousand yards and five touchdowns. Eric Decker thrives as a number two wide receiver. He's shown that in his career. Guess who's in town? Brandon Marshall. Brandon Marshall is going to sway the coverage. Eric Decker will be able to do what he wants because this is what happened last year with Decker as the number one. Here's the second best wide receiver on the team, Jeremy Curley, 38 catches, 400 yards, a touchdown. That's the number two guy that Eric Decker had to deal with. And let me remind everybody what Eric Decker did in 2011 with Timothy Tebow as his quarterback. He still managed to put up 44, 612 and eight with Tim Tebow. The illustrious Demarius Thomas. 32, 551 and four with the same Tim Tebow. Eric Decker is a good wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he is.

[Andy Holloway]

And you get you up. The power of that jets offense. Do not sleep on Eric Decker going that low in the draft. That's ridiculous.

[Jason Moore]

I love it.

[Mike Wright]

All right. I like Eric Decker as well. I think that that was pretty telling where he actually finished to where he's being drafted. Any other thoughts on these wide receiver values?

[Andy Holloway]

Eric Decker.

[Mike Wright]

So next week. So next week we'll bring our full consensus rankings at the wide receiver position.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

And so we'll just kind of go over our top 10 next week and some guys that stand out as well. And we're going to get all these on the website at the fantasy footballers.com as we get. Now we're in April, so we're draft month. I know it is draft month. We're inching our way closer.

[Andy Holloway]

I had, I had just one last thought for Jarvis Landry. Because his first name is Jarvis. Should we call him Iron Man Cricket?

[Mike Wright]

My marvel skills must be down.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Jarvis, the, you know, Jarvis is.

[Andy Holloway]

The robot voice from Iron Man. Oh, dude, you got to step up your comic book game.

[Mike Wright]

Sorry.

[Andy Holloway]

We play nerd games.

[Jason Moore]

We need more than just a name, though. I need him to be like, you know, if, if he goes out and just plays through every injury and he's, you know, like an iron man and then his name is Jarvis. You got, you got me there. But you got, you got to prove. You got to prove Iron Man. That's too good a name.

[Andy Holloway]

They can't.

[Jason Moore]

Mailbag.

[Andy Holloway]

Mail bag.

[Mike Wright]

There it is. There it is. This question comes in via email from Derek B. Says he says he's been listening to our podcast and it is great. Okay. This is my third year, by the way. Thank you for saying that. This is my third year playing in a ten man league. This year I have the number one overall pick in a standard league. My first two years I have been burnt on rbs and this year I'm thinking of going wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver for my first three picks, which is pretty appropriate question here. He wants to know if we can touch on this strategy, the wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver strategy. That's a mouthful.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Can we touch on that strategy? What do we think about that? Has he been burnt because he's just drafted poorly or is that something he should try out this year or there?

[Andy Holloway]

So I went back and I did some extensive research on bus potential of top 12 ADP running backs and top 12 wide receivers. And here's what I'll say about 2014. If you drafted and these are, this is something you could have potentially done realistically if you went Calvin Brandon Marshall, Keenan Allen, you are a sad panda.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you are.

[Andy Holloway]

If you went Demary Thomas, Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, you're ecstatic. So it's not just running backs who bust. Wide receivers also bust. Sorry, I'm trying to pull up my thing as we, as we're talking. So last year and if I bust, I consider it someone who's taken in the top 12 or ADP top 12 and they didn't finish as a, as a two. Does that make sense? So running backs, you only had three busts last year and one of those busts was Adrian Peterson who got suspended. So that was not a play related bust at all. In the wide receivers you had three total busts. And A.J. green, who was just on the cusp because he actually finished 23, go back a year. Oh, I apologize. I'm getting ahead of myself in the. And then for the top 15 finish of running backs, eight total from the top 12 ADP finished in the top 15. Only five were drafted after the fifth round. Does that make sense what I'm saying?

[Mike Wright]

Say it again.

[Andy Holloway]

Of the top 15 finish at the end of the season, eight of those running backs were drafted as top 12 running backs.

[Mike Wright]

And how about the wide receiver position? Do you have that number?

[Andy Holloway]

That's eight as well. Okay, so it's, it's just about the same 2013. That's probably the year he's really referring to because there was a massive, there was six busts. So 50% bust rate of the running backs. And you look at the wide receivers, four.

[Mike Wright]

Now here's the caveat though, right? Because even if the bust percentages are different between positions, you know, if wide receivers are moderately less prone to the bust, it still doesn't matter if the position scarcity issue is there where running backs are more scarce and more necessary for you to have. I think what he has to do is move forward and look at the risks in the players he's drafting.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. Which brings me to my next point of the the point differential of what happens you to win a fantasy championship. Now I Don't have data on this. This is just my assumption. If you won a fantasy championship, it's because you have at least one top 12 running back. The, the point difference between a running back, the top running back, and the top wide receiver here, I'm just going to run through them real quick. Murray, 294. Browns 251, 2013. Jamal Charles, 308. Gordon, 227. So can you see what I'm saying? The top running back scores a lot more. However, the point falloff of the running back is drastic, precipitous when you, once you start dropping tiers of running backs. So let's say, for example, last year, Jonathan Stewart finishes the 24th running back. He had 121 points, right? The 24th wide receiver had 135. And the gap continues to get larger and larger from there. So you have to take running backs. It's. You have to take the gamble. If you're going to win a championship, you need a top 12 running back.

[Jason Moore]

So you're saying, you're saying to this man, do not go wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I would not do that.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let me give a different take, okay. And I'll do it a little, a little quickly. John Paulson from 4 for 4 wrote a great article recently about the question of our receivers more reliable than running backs. Went just some awesome, awesome data. And essentially his conclusion was that after the first two running backs, you really do have a very, you know, overall for the, for the entirety of the picks that the receivers are more reliable than running backs after those top two studs. But, but those top two studs normally matter for the running backs. But after the seventh round, and this is so contrary, when I read this, I was like, no, that's not true. That after the seventh round, running backs are a huge value pick in drafts. And I was like, what? And so I went back and I looked like, what would this do? Because here's the truth. I would never be able, like, emotionally able, Derek, to draft wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver. I've done some mock drafts recently where I've tried that and I just feel gross. I hate my running backs. But let's look at last year and see some sub potentials. I mean, it does matter who you draft. But you know, if you're talking about guys up near the top, here's some of the, Here's a lot of the players that are around where you would be drafting. You'd be drafting Alfred Morris or Andre Ellington or Zach Stacy or Reggie Bush or Shane Vereen or Toby Gerhardt. I mean, all of those guys were gross. Let me show you who went after the seventh round. Running back Wise, Lamar Miller. Where'd he finish? Top ten, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Number nine.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Darren Sprouls had a pretty good year. Fred Jackson.

[Andy Holloway]

None of these guys, I'm sure.

[Mike Wright]

Jeremy Hill, Jeremy.

[Jason Moore]

Jeremy Hill, Mark Ingram, Terrence West, Ahmad Bradshaw, LeGarrett Blunt. Plenty of guys there that you just think you know are just awful. You leave that draft with those guys, you're not feeling good about your team. But it can work out. Statistically the option can work, but you will be laughed out of the room on draft day.

[Andy Holloway]

The problem with those running backs is it takes so long for them to become valuable. The only guy who had instant value, Justin Forsett. He became a superstar stud in week two. Lamar Miller. It took a long time job. Jeremy Hill, who's my guy, took a very long time for him to become a running back. One Mark Ingram exploded for two games and then he was gone. And my point by saying that is you're not going to be able to sustain your record, that you need to get into the playoffs while you wait for these running backs to pay off. That's a good point.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, absolutely. And I think ultimately my own draft strategy comes down to you don't lock yourself in. You don't put yourself in a position where you can't take advantage of the value that's on the board. You know, you, you do care about what position you're drafting. I mean, I'm still a running back guy. I know the foundation of my team is going to be a running back, but if I'm sitting there and there, you know, some of these guys we talked about Jordy Nelson sitting there for me at a just a gold mine position. I'm going to take him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to.

[Mike Wright]

Play my league mates and I'm going to play the draft board with, you know, some, some thought not just lock myself into a strategy or grab a sheet and draft off of it. You know, that's not why we put our rankings out there. I mean, you're welcome to do that. Some of you might not, not want to put in the time and effort that, that we do or other people do. And that's fine. That's why we put it out there. So you can grab it and draft from it if you want to.

[Jason Moore]

But if you're listening to this podcast on April 2nd, that's right, you're putting in the time. And I'm glad you said that, Andy, because can you, can you get away with drafting wide receiver? Wide receiver. Wide receiver? Yes. Can you get away with going into a draft knowing that's what you're going to do? No. Never, ever, ever lock yourself in.

[Andy Holloway]

Like, see, I, I agree. Don't lock yourself in. But I disagree that you have to get a running back in the top three rounds. 10 team.

[Mike Wright]

You're saying you do have to.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I think.

[Mike Wright]

And that's. Yeah, I mean that's more of a 10 teams. I'm talking general philosophy versus saying, hey, I'm going to go running back. Running back, wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Because he said he's a 10 team. Right. So.

[Mike Wright]

So hopefully that helps a little bit. You've got, you've got some time to mock draft your strategy here as well if you want to experiment with that. We'll put some more of our information online as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Everybody busts, man. Everybody.

[Mike Wright]

Everybody does. So that is it for today's show. Next week we will be talking more news and notes. We'll talk more wide receivers and. And some more of these bust and positional stuff.

[Andy Holloway]

You're skipping the review of Source Rex.

[Mike Wright]

No, I'm not. I'm getting there. I'm getting.

[Andy Holloway]

I apologize. Apologize.

[Mike Wright]

And so we're also gonna handle some more mailbag questions. If you have a question, go ahead and ask. Go ahead and email us. Mail at the fantasy footballers.com I don't think I said that earlier today. We'd be happy to answer your question on the show. You can find us on Twitter the ffballers and like I said, it helps us a lot if you go on and leave us a review on itunes. We'll go. We normally read about a review every week and so let's go ahead and do that.

[Jason Moore]

Review. Asaurus Rags. This review comes in from Kiav Bia. Because we're a family show, I will read it like that. He says what I appreciate most about these dudes. Once again, we are dudes. We're always dudes is they carry opposite opinions on several players and team situations. That type of banter proves intellectually productive and I agree. Key of biak.

[Mike Wright]

I think you did just say it.

[Jason Moore]

So yeah, go on, leave us a review we appreciate.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, absolutely. That is it for today. Remember, we are the fantasy Footballers. See you next week.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers podcast.