Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Early WR Part 2 + NFL.com's Matt Harmon

Summary

Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Early WR Part 2 + NFL.com's Matt Harmon

Release Date: April 7, 2016

Introduction

In the April 7, 2016 episode of the "Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast," hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright continue their comprehensive analysis of wide receivers (WRs) for the upcoming fantasy football season. This episode marks the second part of their early WR rankings and features a special guest appearance by Matt Harmon from NFL.com, renowned for his deep dive into player performances and potential.

Continuation of WR Rankings (Numbers 9-16)

The primary focus of this episode is the continuation of the hosts' WR rankings, covering positions nine through sixteen. Building on the previous discussion where they ranked wide receivers one through eight, the trio delves into nuanced evaluations of each player, considering factors such as performance metrics, injury history, team dynamics, and potential for fantasy points.

1. Steve Smith Sr. (#9)

The episode opens with a discussion about Steve Smith Sr., who the hosts debate whether he deserves a higher ranking. Mike Wright humorously mentions his own room remodeled by memorabilia from pristineauction.com, setting a lighthearted tone ([00:00]).

Jason Moore expresses skepticism about Smith’s return, stating, “I don’t see Steve Smith doing anything this year” ([04:02]). Andy Holloway counters by highlighting Smith’s determination despite a severe double Achilles tendon rupture ([05:32]). The consensus is that while Smith is a dedicated player, concerns about his injury and team reliance keep him lower in the rankings.

2. Allen Robinson (#9)

Moving to number nine, Allen Robinson is lauded for his impressive stats last season—80 catches, 1,400 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Andy emphasizes Robinson’s ability to make critical plays, especially in the red zone, but acknowledges some hesitancy due to potential regression in touchdown numbers. Jason notes, “I think he’s a little bit overdrafted,” suggesting a projection of around nine touchdowns this year ([11:01]).

3. Alshon Jeffery (#10)

At number ten, Alshon Jeffery is recognized for his dual potential as a high-reward but injury-prone player. Jeffery’s breakout season with nearly 100 catches and over 1,400 yards is praised, yet the hosts caution about his consistency and durability. Jason questions his placement: “Why is Jeffrey sitting here at 10 when a guy like Mike Evans is up at 7?” ([13:15]). The discussion centers on Jeffery's role in the Bears’ offense and his ability to stay healthy to reach his high potential.

4. Jordy Nelson (#11)

Jordy Nelson at number eleven receives enthusiastic support from Mike Wright, who underscores Nelson’s consistent performance despite being undervalued. Nelson’s previous season with 98 receptions, 1,500 yards, and 13 touchdowns positions him as a top-tier WR. Matt Harmon adds that Nelson’s rapport with quarterback Aaron Rodgers enhances his fantasy value ([19:30]).

5. Keenan Allen (#12)

Keenan Allen is ranked twelfth, with a strong emphasis on his high target volume, especially in PPR (Points Per Reception) leagues. Andy highlights Allen’s ability to maintain a high average catch rate, while Jason discusses his role in the Chargers' offense and potential for around 100 receptions ([24:20]). The hosts agree that Allen is a reliable PPR asset, though his yards per catch may remain modest.

6. Sammy Watkins (#13)

Sammy Watkins garners attention at number thirteen, sparking a spirited debate among the hosts. Jason Moore passionately defends Watkins, citing his elite talent and potential for a breakout season: “I don’t want us to forget that he’s had a couple injuries that were a little bit more fluky” ([27:32]). However, Mike Wright counters with concerns about Watkins’ opportunities in a run-focused Buffalo offense and his consistency, ultimately reflecting mixed opinions on his draft value.

7. Demaryius Thomas (#14)

Demaryius Thomas is placed at number fourteen despite a somewhat disappointing previous season with 105 receptions, 1,300 yards, and six touchdowns. Jason criticizes the performance, noting, “That was a terrible year” ([35:26]), but Andy argues that Thomas’s elite talent keeps him valuable. The hosts acknowledge Thomas’s ability to produce big numbers when healthy and with strong quarterback support.

8. Golden Tate (#15) and Amari Cooper (#16)

Golden Tate ranks fifteenth, recognized for his high reception volumes but tempered by lower yards per catch and touchdown potential. Jason describes Tate as a volume receiver, particularly valuable in PPR leagues ([39:00]).

Amari Cooper completes the top sixteen at number sixteen. The hosts express concerns about Cooper’s consistency and the Raiders’ offensive strategy under Jack Del Rio. Jason points out that Cooper may see a similar target volume as his rookie year, while Mike Wright remains optimistic about Cooper’s conditioning and target consistency ([42:37]).

Insights from Matt Harmon

The latter part of the episode features Matt Harmon, who provides expert analysis on lower-ranked WRs and potential breakout candidates:

• Dante Moncrief: Harmon praises Moncrief’s development as a route runner and his increasing professionalism, suggesting significant growth potential in the upcoming season ([46:00]).

• Doug Baldwin vs. Tyler Lockett: Harmon debates whether Doug Baldwin can sustain his performance post a stellar season contingent on Russell Wilson’s quarterback excellence. He compares Baldwin to Tyler Lockett, noting that both could offer comparable target volumes and suggests choosing based on draft value and team context ([48:37]).

• Detroit Lions’ Golden Tate and Marvin Jones: Harmon discusses the Lions’ transition after Calvin Johnson’s retirement, expressing skepticism about Tate stepping into a full WR1 role and highlighting Marvin Jones’s strengths as a reliable pass-catcher. He advises caution in expecting Tate to replicate Johnson’s production ([52:37]).

• Rookies with High Potential: Harmon identifies Laquan Treadwell and Josh Dockson as rookies poised to make immediate impacts, capable of challenging for 100+ targets in favorable team situations ([56:20]).

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The episode concludes with the hosts reiterating the depth of their WR rankings and the importance of considering individual league dynamics and draft strategies. They emphasize the value of equipping listeners with comprehensive information to make informed decisions tailored to their specific fantasy teams.

Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore on Steve Smith: “I don’t see Steve Smith doing anything this year” ([04:02]).

• Matt Harmon on Doug Baldwin: “If the Seahawks offense continues down that path, I would expect Baldwin to continue to post, like wide receiver two numbers” ([48:37]).

• Matt Harmon on Rookies: “I look at a guy like Laquan Treadwell, I think can make an immediate” ([56:20]).

• Andy Holloway on WR Rankings: “We're back. The three of us have returned plus one today” ([00:57]).

Final Notes

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast offers an in-depth exploration of wide receiver rankings, complemented by expert insights from Matt Harmon. Whether you're strategizing for PPR or standard leagues, the hosts provide valuable perspectives to enhance your fantasy football draft and season management.

For more detailed rankings and analyses, visit their website at thefantasyfootballers.com and follow them on Twitter @theFFBallers.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

Hey, Foot Clan. Today's show is brought to you by pristineauction.com look, you've heard us talking about them because they are the best memorabilia site on the Internet. Our David Johnson jersey, my entire man cave has been remodeled, reshaped by pristineox.com look, the other day I saw a signed picture of a Mike Tyson's punch out signed by Mike Tyson in a shadow box. It was one of the best things I've ever seen in my life. Father's Day is coming up. You want to hook that up, go to pristineauction.com that's P R I S T I N E auction.com.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

We're back. The three of us have returned plus one today. Oh, that is true. We have a very special guest on the show later today. Do not miss it. Matt Harmon is on the podcast today.

[Mike Wright]

Look, the. The Foot Clan has demanded that good friend of the show, Matt Harmon return and he has. And we got why.

[Andy Holloway]

And there's really no better episode for Matt Harmon to join us than perfection. Mike, I think, yeah, if they could have seen you. You're making.

[Mike Wright]

We have a video show. This is for the YouTube.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but for everybody that was listening.

[Mike Wright]

Like, I was smooching, man.

[Jason Moore]

No, it didn't sound like a kiss. It wasn't. Mwah. It was.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that was like a vomit sound.

[Jason Moore]

Terrible.

[Andy Holloway]

So. But. But now that it's been explained, Mike was. He was doing almost the like delicious Italian.

[Mike Wright]

I was vomiting.

[Jason Moore]

That's all right.

[Andy Holloway]

So we have a.

[Mike Wright]

We do.

[Andy Holloway]

Despite that introduction, we have a great show. We've got our second half of the wide receiver. We went through one through eight on the last show and we've got nine through 16 on the show today. We're also talking with Matt Harneman about a number of players that really. These are guys that are either hot topics or guys that we have a little bit of a divergent opinion about. So you'll want to listen in because nobody knows more about wide receivers, how they. Nobody watches more film than Matt Harmon. And he's just. He's just a really good analyst and somebody that you want to hear from. We only try to bring the best guys on here. So we've got. That's. That's the show. Those are the two big pieces of the show. If you want to follow us, you can do so on twitter@the ffballers, on the web, the fantasy footballers.com and I will tell you this. We've got our. I think I said on the last show that we'll have our rankings by.

[Mike Wright]

The end of April.

[Andy Holloway]

I imagine that will be sooner.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah, they're coming and they're coming.

[Andy Holloway]

Pretty and there have been a lot of people who last year they followed the rankings. That's obviously one of the bigger parts on the website is you want to see the rankings. Our draft rankings are much improved this year. We're going to have every position at every scoring format. They're going to be. You'll be able to pull them up on your phone really easily. And so, you know, print out a list if you need it, PDF and everything. And that's all free on the website, so stay tuned for that. They are coming quickly and I'm excited about that and they'll be updated and changed as the draft happens and some of the rookies land in the different destinations that they're going to. So I'm excited about that. Quick question for the day, guys. Steve Smith. Steve Smith is a wide receiver. Oh, seven.

[Mike Wright]

I thought the question was just Steve Smith is a. And I was gonna.

[Andy Holloway]

Which he had a line.

[Mike Wright]

I was gonna sidestep and say Steve Smith is a Hall of Fame wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

I was going to say Steve Smith is a retired hall of Famer.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, he's not retired.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I know. But I don't look your doubt strong.

[Andy Holloway]

And mine are not strong.

[Jason Moore]

To answer the quick question for me, from my perspective, I don't have him coming back strong. I know he's been, you know, just an absolute juggernaut at the old age. But coming off the specific injury that he has at his age, you bring in, you know, other, other guys. I don't. I don't see the Ravens holding on to having Steve Smith be the guy there. So I don't expect anything big from him. He is certainly a guy. We talk about it all the time. You've got to know those guys that you've got to be okay being wrong on. You know, you don't take them. Maybe you are wrong. I'm fine being wrong on Steve Smith. There is no team he would be on. I don't know that I would take Steve Smith. This is just me and I think it might sound a little hyperbolic, but I'm not sure I would take Steve Smith with my third to last pick. I feel like there's other guys that I, I don't think Steve Smith's going to do anything this year.

[Mike Wright]

Interesting.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that is a very fair assessment of Smith. I want to remind People he had a double rupture of the Achilles tendon. In fact, the doctor came out and told him, he how do you double rupture? What he said quot tendon exploded. And Steve Smith response was that he does. Just like everything else, he did it to the fullest when it came to tearing his Achilles tendon. And so he has to come back from a very serious injury. And I think the bigger point there is what Jason said is that whether or not he can which he's as hard a worker as there is, that.

[Mike Wright]

Man doesn't have blood in his body. No, he has gasoline.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he is. He does do everything to the fullest. He works hard. But it's more what Jason said about relying. The team's not going to put themselves in a position to rely on that.

[Jason Moore]

I think, you know, they got Rashad Pearman coming back.

[Mike Wright]

You know who's not cleared yet.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah, I did.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, they do have. They got Mike Wallace now.

[Mike Wright]

And they also have Kamar Aiken.

[Andy Holloway]

They have Kamar Aiken second half of the season. Could you see Steve Smith being a waiver wire guy that could give you those? Because when Steve Smith goes big, he goes big.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean it's like a deep. And he was having a great catches, 200 yards, something like that.

[Mike Wright]

He was the, the two seasons ago. We all know he was a monster. Last year we. It was the okay, he's old. He's even older. Can he keep it going? And he did. He was having a great season before he tore double ruptured the Achilles.

[Jason Moore]

He was, he was born in the 70s. Yeah. Just throwing that out there. He was born in the 70s. He will be 37 this year.

[Mike Wright]

I'm older than Steve Smith.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we're young.

[Mike Wright]

But if I agree, I think that he could be a second half waiver type of a guy or someone that you just hold if your bench is big enough and you know the long play is. He could come around the second half.

[Andy Holloway]

And it would be a different story if Steve Smith was coming back to a team like Arizona who already had established other wide receivers and not to discredit Kamara Akin. I had him last year, believe it or not, and I played him. But Kamar Akin isn't.

[Jason Moore]

He's no Steve Smith.

[Andy Holloway]

No. He's not an upper tier, upper echelon guy. Perryman's unproven. Mike Wallace takes 95% of the plays off. So I would rather have Steve Smith if he's back on the field. I feel like they're expecting something from him. So just an interesting name to throw out there because it's one we're not talking about on the show today. Certainly not in our top six. Sixteen, maybe not our top 60. We'll see. But let's. We don't have. There's not a lot of news out there. I want to get right into the wide receivers because we have Matt Harmon coming on the show and so let's do that right now.

[Jason Moore]

Wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let me run back our top eight in case you missed the show on Tuesday, which by the way, you really shouldn't miss any shows. If you miss, if you missed, you.

[Mike Wright]

Can easily find it very, very easy on your podcast provider.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right. Antonio Brown, number one, Julio Jones, number two, Odell Beckham Jr. Number three, Des Bryant, number four, AJ Green, five. DeAndre Hopkins, six. Mike Evans, seven. And Brandon Marshall coming in at number eight. That is our consensus ranking. So when you take all of our individual rankings, average them together, that's what we're bringing you on the show. When we have the rankings up on the website, you will be able to go sort by each of us individually. Most, most listeners go. They sort by my rankings and then they win their championship.

[Mike Wright]

So they say, okay, avoid, avoid these.

[Andy Holloway]

Jeremy Macklin says, you're wrong.

[Mike Wright]

The dirty cake.

[Andy Holloway]

The dirty cake is back. All right, so number nine, we wanted to talk about him. We just plain couldn't because he ended up at number nine. So Allen Robinson comes in at number nine on our consensus rankings coming off an 80 catch season in which he had 1400 yards and a monstrous 14 touchdowns. And so let me preface your guys comments with this. We love Allen Robinson as a player. He's 22 years old and he did some amazing things last year. I think one of the things I loved about him most is that Blake Bortles seemed to force him the ball in the red zone and it worked. And I really like that about a guy at that age making plays. He's obviously got the physical tools to do it. I say all that because I know that most of this conversation with him at number nine is going to sound a little ho hum about Alan Robinson. And so I'm going to let you guys take it away. But Alan Robinson, huge monster, monster year. 80 for 14. So what do we get this year?

[Jason Moore]

We were huge fans of him last year. If you listen last year, you know he's being drafted right now as the sixth best wide receiver. Obviously from our consensus, that's not too far, were we? No, but we think he's a little bit overdrafted. I said I believe incorrectly. We were corrected on Twitter. Shout out. I wish I knew the handle that he had a lot of touchdowns that came over 20 yards, when in fact, I believe the stat was 12 of his touchdowns came in the red zone. But he did have the most catches of 20 plus yards with 31 total on the year. So there's, there's the question here of really, when you only have 80 touchdown, 80 catches and you have 14 touchdowns, there seems to be this lopsided thing that isn't making sense. You also have to keep in mind that the first half of the year, Julius Thomas, who became a red zone target later in the year, was not there to collect any of those. You also have to keep in mind that they had no one that could run the ball in for a touchdown when they got down there. Remember the three?

[Andy Holloway]

They actually probably had a guy. They just chose not to use him. Sure.

[Jason Moore]

But your point is accurate.

[Mike Wright]

There was. Do you know how many rushing touchdowns they had that were not Blake Bortles?

[Jason Moore]

One.

[Andy Holloway]

The numbers got to be three. Yeah. As you say, it's got to be really low.

[Mike Wright]

Three. Two for Yelden and one for Denard.

[Andy Holloway]

So Gerhardt never got in?

[Jason Moore]

No, he had lots of tries on one play.

[Mike Wright]

Gerhardt's getting into Sizzler. That's where he's getting into.

[Andy Holloway]

The NFL running back discount.

[Jason Moore]

So essentially, I think what we expect from Alan Robinson, you've got an ascending offense, an exceptional talent, and I think he will get more targets this year and more receptions this year, and a regression on the touchdowns, and he'll finish about near where he did last year. I think he finishes a little lower than he did last year. He's probably overdrafted. But I'd be happy with Alan Robinson on any of my teams.

[Mike Wright]

It's just the touchdowns. It's the fact that they had three rushing touchdowns outside of Bortles, who had two, and Blake Bortles through for 35, I don't see either of those approaching that. Like, I think Bortles would be closer to 30 and the rushing touchdowns will be closer to 10.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and if you look at it like I haven't projected for nine touchdowns, that's a high touchdown total for a wide receiver and that's still a reduction of five touchdowns. And that's. That makes a difference. A lot of the times in these rankings that we do one or two touchdowns, that projection makes a huge impact on where they end up. So still love Allen Robinson. Still think he's Probably. I mean, he's got to be what, top three or four in dynasty leagues.

[Mike Wright]

He's pretty high.

[Andy Holloway]

Pretty high.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know, about four. Maybe. Maybe around that four or five area.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, obviously Odell Beckham Jr. Is ahead of him.

[Mike Wright]

Probably Julio Brown and Julio, they're for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, so, all right. And number 10, we have Alshon Jeffrey. Now, Jeffrey is a guy that will divide, I think a lot of fantasy owners because when you draft Alshon Jeffrey, you're doing two things. You're drafting injury risk and you're drafting incredible potential. He's a guy who has done it, who's gone out there and put up a huge season before. And when he's on the field, he's great. He might be top five great. We have him at 10 and I think that is factoring in some of the doubts that we have about him being able to play a full 16 game season. Jason, what is your take on Alshon Jeffrey and why, why is Jeffrey. Here's a good example or a question for you. Why is Jeffrey sitting here at 10 when a guy like Mike Evans is up at 7? For you?

[Jason Moore]

For me, the reason is because when you look at what Alshon did last year when he was on the field, he was the guy. I think Kevin White coming is going to be mostly neutral, but it will take away a couple of the red zone opportunities because now you've got two guys you can throw it to. I've got Alshon statted for almost 100 catches, over 1400 yards and nine touchdowns. That's a great season. Huge season. He is actually, I believe tied in my rankings with, with Mike Evans, who has very, very similar stats, fewer receptions. It's just a matter of how do you think the Chicago offense is going to produce next year? They've lost Matt Forte, who's a guy that picks up first downs when they're needed with those little dump offs. Is that going to hurt the offense at all or is it going to be kind of just the same because you add Kevin White?

[Andy Holloway]

I think they have a better defense.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

I think you have a team that might draft a running back in this upcoming draft and you have no Adam Gaze there in Chicago and obviously Jay Cutler is still there, but that's a very optimistic stat line. To me that is a stat line that says you're betting on Alison Jeffrey to play in a quantity of games to accumulate a 1400 yard season. Now he's had one double digit touchdown year in his career, which was a different season than a 1400 yard season that he's had. So those things haven't happened together. Now, how many touchdowns did you say? 10?

[Jason Moore]

9.

[Andy Holloway]

9. Okay. So Mike, what is your thoughts on Jeffrey?

[Mike Wright]

I pretty much echo everything from Jason. I'm actually when I started him out, just where he, where he fell of the season, I was projecting, he came out 16 for me, which was and still is a shock for me. Of like I love Al Shawn. I think he's a strong wide receiver one, so I'll be going back through. Maybe he gets a little, little bump for me. But that's, it's just that that range, it could speak to that range of guys once you get out of the, the, the known elites of how close they are to me, of how I like all these guys. But Alshon's potential is, is a top five guy if he can be on the field. Like you said, the 2013 magical season, I believe that was with McCown when he had over 1400 yards and seven touchdowns. I think he can do that again.

[Andy Holloway]

And obviously the Bears think that too. They gave him a one year $14.6 million tender. He is 26. So you talk about being born in the 70s. He was born in the 90s, so that's a nice upgrade. And you know, he's got to stay healthy. But those are the type of plays where if you could, if you draft running back and you're sitting there in the second round and Allison Jeffries on the board, which in most, I mean, we don't expect that to be different. That should be the case.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Second, third round even. It's a great drafting a guy with the potential to be a one. I mean like a high end one is great. I like that kind of pick. Especially if you got a solidified early running back that you think you're going to get a lot out of. You know, Jeffrey, okay, so he gets banged up, but he gives you those top five numbers when he's healthy.

[Mike Wright]

To be fair to Jeffrey, the two seasons before 2015, he played every game.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's not an injury prone guy and I wanted to bring that up last year. Oh, for sure. But last year, you know what it reminded me of? It reminded me of his predecessor, Brandon Marshall, when he had that one year where he was just constantly injured.

[Andy Holloway]

Multiple injuries, multiple injuries.

[Jason Moore]

It's just a, once you get that snowball rolling, soft tissue, it's, it's very difficult to get over it. But the rest of his career, normally he's playing, you know, every game. So I'm not worried about Alshon Jeffrey as an injury risk coming into this season.

[Andy Holloway]

If in the camp, preseason time though, you see soft tissue issues. Sure. That aren't. They don't seem severe.

[Mike Wright]

Soft tissue issues is just. Sounds funny to me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's almost as good as reception perception.

[Andy Holloway]

There you go. But if you see some of those, you called it a snowball because that's what it was. You, you hurt one thing and then something else hurts because of it.

[Jason Moore]

You overcompensate.

[Andy Holloway]

Sean McCoy had that happen last year. We see guys just keep trying to play on it because you. Everybody got down. I mean, there were reports last year that people were down on Alshon Jeffrey in the organization because he wasn't getting back on the field fast enough. So that would be the thing that.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you combine that with Kevin White being out, I mean as an organization and it's like, okay, they wanted Kevin White. He had these weird stress factors.

[Andy Holloway]

You have a guy so many guys out last year.

[Mike Wright]

You have a Roshan Alshon who's banged up in a contract year. I don't blame him for stretching or putting himself out there. You don't want your, your last impression to be like you're not a, an elite player like he is. So I don't blame him at all for that.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so number 11 on the list. So we came in with Alan Robinson and then Alshon Jeffrey. Now we have number 11 is Jordy Nelson, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. Mike seems exceptionally joyous over the return of Jordy Nelson, somebody who was perennially undervalued and yet finished in that top echelon. Top three, I think a couple of times. So Mike, what are we expecting from Jordy Nelson? How do you have him projected? Where would you take him in the draft? What's his birthday? What's his favorite food?

[Mike Wright]

The birthday. I don't know. The favorite food is actually chili peppers. It's a really a little known fact about Jordy gives him extra pep in his step. Okay, so I've heard. But look, Jordy Nelson is. I was talking the last show about Marshall and AJ Greed. Just for some reason there's certain guys, the greatness is forgotten. Whether it's. The shine is off because it's on somebody new. It's on, you know, like a Robinson, a Beckham. You forget how amazing Jordy Nelson is. And you saw the entire Green Bay offense just shut down for their standards when Jordy Nelson was not on the field last year. I'm pulling up the numbers real quick on Jordy's year. So two years ago when he didn't tear the ACL, 98 receptions over 1500 yards and 13 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

That and that put him I believe number two. Right? He was. Yeah, he was number two wide receiver in all of fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

So do I think he can match that? No. But do I still think that he can be a, an elite guy with 8, 9 touchdowns, 1200 yards in the 90 catch range? Absolutely. A site, a resource that we talk about a lot is rotoviz.com they have some fantastic stuff on there. A writer, Justin Nguyen did a huge breakdown of wide receivers. Because the concern with Nelson is his age, I suggest you go check out the article. But essentially he was saying that guys who put up big numbers and when they're 29, don't worry about him. Yeah. Just because he's 31, don't worry about that.

[Jason Moore]

That was great. It was something like 80% have great seasons. At his current age the ACL would be a possible concern for me. I've got so early though. Yeah, I've got Jordy as the number 12. So my last of the wide receiver ones. That being said, in most drafts that I've seen he goes above Alshon Jeffrey and. Really? Yeah. And I would not draft Jordy ahead of Alshon. So we're talking about these guys back to back the order that I would, I would. So you would go.

[Mike Wright]

I would take.

[Andy Holloway]

Right now I have Alshon ahead of Jordy but I might adjust that. The thing we need to remember is there was another wide receiver last year who has an established track record that was entering his year 31 season. Do you guys know who that was that put up a number three overall season?

[Jason Moore]

Brandon Marshall.

[Andy Holloway]

Brandon Marshall put up 1500 yards and 14 touchdowns with Ryan Fitzpatrick in New York. Jordy Nelson is coming back at age he's about to turn 31 in May.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Ryan Fitzpatrick's looking for a new home so maybe he goes to Green.

[Andy Holloway]

Bay, take over for Aaron Rodgers. So all I'm saying is that should give you some context for the kind of, you know, he missed an entire season too. He did not. I know that wasn't a good reason like ACL tear, but it wasn't like he was on the field building mileage up on those legs and he's a hard working guy and he's done it year in and year out. There's no reason he can't go out and give you one of those high yardage high touchdown season. I think he is worth his weight in gold in your Draft where you're actually going to get him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, his, his rapport with Aaron Rodgers is uncanny. It's. They know each other's. They know where Jordy's going to run.

[Andy Holloway]

He knows his birthday.

[Jason Moore]

He knows his birthday. They just have something special between those two. Aaron Rodgers going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder this year after what happened last year. So Jordy could have a huge breakout season. He could be top five. I just don't, I don't see his, put it this way, breakout. I think Alshon Jeffrey, I think Alshon Jeffrey will have more receptions than Jordy on the year and I'm going to lean that way when I, when I'm on the board and these two great options are there. That's why Mike, I would, I would go out.

[Mike Wright]

That's fair.

[Andy Holloway]

You guys want to water Betty?

[Jason Moore]

No, we, I think both of us like both of those guys.

[Mike Wright]

When we get closer, that could happen.

[Andy Holloway]

Keenan Allen is number 12 on our consensus wide receiver rankings. His season, a great one at that, was cut short due to a lacerated kidney. I believe in week nine, maybe week eight. And he was on pace to essentially lead the league in receptions or be really, really close in that category. He was the go to guy for Philip Rivers coming into last year. You had a very interesting situation for him. He had the breakout rookie season then he had a season that people saw as a major regression, but actually statistically was not.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it would a little bit in.

[Andy Holloway]

Touchdowns there was, but I believe he had more total receptions in the second season.

[Mike Wright]

He had more receptions, but he had about, about 200 yards less.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

So there was. There were some conflicting numbers there that said, what is he actually going to be in season three? And he was a machine. He was an absolute monster. A machine. They bring in Travis Benjamin this year. Melvin Gordon second season, can Wesn hunt back as offensive coordinator Antonio Gates returns. That is the team context for Keenan Allen season. Should we be, should we be drafting him in PPR leagues with the expectation he will put up 100 plus catches?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, absolutely. I am all aboard the Keenan Allen ship. You, everyone is welcome to join me on it.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, where do you have him? You have him as far down as 12.

[Mike Wright]

No, he's higher than that. For me, I'm extremely high. I believe he's in my top five. When you're talking about ppr. Here's why I like Keenan Allen.

[Andy Holloway]

In eight games, you're four in ppr.

[Mike Wright]

In ppr. I love him because last year in eight games, this includes a not Full game because his kidney exploded.89 targets his rookie year when people, oh, Keenan Allen, that was quite the breakout. 105 targets in 15 games.

[Andy Holloway]

So he is half a season, he's got 89 targets.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, that's out of control. And while I like the, the average catch much better in his rookie year, the thing about him with it, he had a 10.8 average. That can't go down, that cannot go down, that can only go up or stay status quo. And his connection with Philip Rivers was incredible. Keenan Allen, after that disappointing sophomore season, he did came out and he said, look, I, he, he was riding the coattails of his own his rookie year. He was drinking his own Kool Aid, you know, thinking, oh, I'm doing the hotness, I don't have to put in the extra work. He realized that that was a mistake and you could tell can't do that in the NFL. You could tell that in his third year when he was breaking out, I think that the, the, the offense for San Diego remains similar where Keenan Allen is the go to. I see Travis Benjamin as a Malcolm Floyd type level replacement and I just see that those targets, I don't think that's an anomaly. I think that will stay extremely high. He'll be one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL.

[Jason Moore]

I agree. I do think though that what you're saying says that his low, you know, yards per reception is, is going to stay pretty low because that's, that's kind of how any of those guys that get 115 receptions are usually guys who aren't always stretching the field. They're, you know, running the shorter routes, getting those quick passes, part of just a system. And that's what Keenan Allen is. So he is, to me, one of my biggest discrepancies between PPR and standard. So yes, that's where you know your league. If you're a ppr, bump Keenan up quite a bit. And if you're in a standard league, don't take him probably, you know, as a guaranteed wide receiver. One that being said, even in standard, when you've got those guys that get over 100 catches, there's just a consistency factor that they might not finish as the, as the number eight wide receiver that you would hope that they would finish as. But they're never going to burn your team because they just put up points every game because every catch is yards and you're still going to get points.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I want to get to number 13 on our list because I know it will Be a hotly debated subject, is it? And that is number 13, himself, Sammy Watkins. 60 receptions, 1,000 yards last year, nine touchdowns. And we have in the studio had plenty of Sammy Watkins discussions. We will have them now before you. We disagree about Sammy Watkins only in the fact that, you know, we all have him ranked as a top 20 guy. Okay, let me say that Jason is.

[Jason Moore]

I'm the reason he's this high.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Jason is in love with Sammy Watkins. Jason writes letters. He's a pen pal.

[Jason Moore]

I look at pictures.

[Andy Holloway]

Sammy doesn't write back.

[Mike Wright]

You guys remember pen pals? Did you have a pen pal in elementary school?

[Andy Holloway]

I had a best friend in, in kindergarten that left. You know, I went to another state and we had to write letters. And then that died off after like six months and never talked to him again.

[Mike Wright]

You write cursive?

[Andy Holloway]

I did, yeah. Well, not a kindergartner, I guess. I didn't.

[Mike Wright]

Just a, A flash. Flash to the past.

[Andy Holloway]

So Sammy Watkins, 13 games last year. Talk. I mean, make the case for Sammy Watkins next year.

[Jason Moore]

I will make the case, but make.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure you make it as poorly as you did in the studio.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, I will make the case for Sammy Watkins very clearly. Sammy Watkins is one of. Now there's a lot of talented receivers out there, but not everybody is Sammy Watkins elite talent. Think about this wide receiver class from two years ago, right? The most unbelievable wide receiver class in the history of the NFL. And the guy who going into the draft was the kind of clear cut, consensus number one of that incredible group was Sammy Watkins. This was a guy who was a, you know, one of those generational type of wide receivers coming in. Well, he's dealt with a lot of injury coming at the start of last year, he was dealing with injury with some ankle problems, missed a couple games early. But if you look at what he did in the second half of last year, and I realize, I realize that Buffalo is not a wide receiver focused team, they're a running team. But just like, you know, you've got the jets who weren't a wide receiver focused team. And you had two great options. Sammy Watkins on the second half of the year last year was the number four wide receiver. Now I'm not extrapolating that out and say, well, then he'll be the number four wide receiver this year. I believe I've got him ranked as the eight, but definitely a wide receiver. 1. His talent, his ascension coming into the third year, his rapport being built now with Tyrod Taylor. What you saw in the second half of the year. And if you look at the targets and the receptions, those numbers between what happened when he was struggling with the injuries early and when he was healthy late, I believe Sammy Watkins. Here's the deal. I'm going to take a guy who is the clear number one on a team who is one of the most talented guys in the league and I'm going to put my chips on him. And if I'm wrong, I'm happy being wrong because I'm taking that talent. He is uber talented. I don't want us to forget that just because he's had a couple injuries that were a little bit more fluky.

[Mike Wright]

And I will counter your talent arguments with your argument that you love and that is opportunity.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

And this is the only reason that I have Watkins lower. I actually have him as a lower ranged wide receiver too. It's, it's the system. Buffalo per game had the second lowest average pass attempts, just over 29 attempts a game. That is outrageously low when you're talking the, the top half of the league from 15 up are about 37 attempts.

[Andy Holloway]

Can I jump into there and just add this to your point? They were the second lowest pass attempts in the league and everybody would agree that Rex Ryan's defense took a huge step back in Buffalo. So their defense struggled. They were put in positions to, to be that prototypical Jaguars coming back from the game and they still were second lowest in the league. So I have Watkins with such a lower reception total than the other guys. I think he will get in the end zone and I think he will make big plays. But I'll let you continue.

[Mike Wright]

That's just, that's it. It's Rex Ryan just his teams over the years have shown me that that's not, that's not how he plays. That's not how he coaches. We tie Rod Taylor, we saw him, you know, have a mini breakout party. I think he could be the answer Buffalo. But he's the answer because he fits into the, this to what they want to do of pass sometimes but the focus is running the ball. So I just. The opportunity for Sammy Watkins to be that high level wide receiver one for an entire season. I just don't see it.

[Andy Holloway]

It's the week to week part that makes him the struggle for me. It's not that he won't have games where he, I mean I would not doubt it in any way that he leads like three weeks next next year as the best wide receiver that week. It's just a matter of can I, can I roll him in There like I would roll in a, you know, Allen Robinson or Jordy Nelson or a Mike Evans. I don't think I can.

[Jason Moore]

That's kind of what I was just talking about with, with Jordy versus Alshon. When I'm at guys that I like around the same, I am going to always side on the target side. So that is a very fair point, Mike. You bring up the fact that I am Mr. Opportunity over talent, and this one is not necessarily Mr. Opportunity, but there aren't a lot of other wide receiving, you know, pass catching options there at Buffalo. So I think the vast lion's share will go to Sammy Watkins.

[Mike Wright]

Just to get a frame of reference for the Foot Clan here. I'm looking at a current adp, early adp, granted. But just this is, this is what.

[Andy Holloway]

People are doing right now and that is average draft position.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Thank you. Sammy Watkins or Amari Cooper? Jason?

[Jason Moore]

I would take Sammy Watkins.

[Mike Wright]

I would take Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins or Brandon Marshall.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I would take Brandon Marshall, Sammy.

[Mike Wright]

Watkins or Mike Evans. I'll take Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins or this. And this is where we'll differ. Or Keenan Allen.

[Andy Holloway]

I would take Keenan Allen personally.

[Jason Moore]

That one would.

[Andy Holloway]

In a standard though, it'd be pretty darn good.

[Mike Wright]

I'm looking at standard to be fair, you know.

[Jason Moore]

All right, if it is standard, then I would go Watkins, but just all.

[Mike Wright]

The guys I listed are being drafted average behind Sammy Watkins.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's good to know.

[Jason Moore]

And it is really important for the Foot Clan. Like you don't just take rankings and print them off and come into a draft and blindly go by that without considering adp. Because value matters. So whenever you draft, make sure, you know, if you're using the online tool, look at, you know, oh, man, I like this guy next, but he's like three rounds later here and hold off and grab the guys with better value. It's a smarter way to draft.

[Andy Holloway]

I completely agree. That's a, that's an important point to remember. And Watkins is hyper talented. I agree with that fact. He's, you know, he's a big guy. I think he's 6, 3 and he makes a lot of plays. And him and Tyra Taylor connect on a lot of deep balls. So he's somebody that man.

[Mike Wright]

Tyrod Taylor's deep ball.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's great. And one of the things I think you see with Mike sharing that average draft position information about Watkins right now is you see probably an end of year focus there with, with Watkins where he was so good towards the end of the season that he's surpassing, maybe appropriately. We'll find out those other guys that we would all. I mean, even Jason said most of those he would take. I guess you were about split on those guys, but Evans and Jeffrey and those guys you had ahead of Watkins.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think Watkins is. You know, I've got him eight right now in my half point based on when I go into the draft. Then I'm not sure where I'm going to be drafting him based on average draft position.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so number 14 is Demaryius Thomas on our consensus rankings. And I want to get through these last three points pretty quickly here because we do have Matt Harmon coming on the show and he's going to talk about at least one of these guys with us. So we don't have to say a whole lot about him. But demarius Thomas is not. I don't think we'll bring him up. So 16 games last year. Ho hum. 1300 six touchdowns. Demarius Thomas. The best argument for Demarius Thomas being at this spot or higher is that he, he just is demarius Thomas. He does what he does and he does it over and over again and it doesn't seem to matter what the situation is. He just puts up big numbers.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I mean, that was a terrible year. It was terrible. Everybody who drafted demarius Thomas was disappointed. You look back and you go, Ah.

[Andy Holloway]

DT stunk with your 105 receptions and 1300 yards.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that, that's the point. It's like, don't be too sour on a guy who in his down year with terrible quarterback play was fantastic.

[Andy Holloway]

Now you're taking Watkins over him.

[Jason Moore]

I will probably take Watkins over to Mary's Thomas. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

So demarius Thomas.

[Matt Harmon]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

What if Kaepernick came to Denver? Not that that there's any percentage, any percentage chance of that whatsoever, but if hypothetically stole my thumb miracle. Oh, you were going that direction. No.

[Jason Moore]

If that happened, then I would probably most certainly take Sammy Watkins over to Mary's Thomas. I'm not sure cap helps.

[Mike Wright]

So Thomas the last four years. This is his average, his average stat line for the last four years. 101 receptions. 14. 14 and a half hundred yards.

[Andy Holloway]

14 and a half hundred.

[Mike Wright]

You know what? The dumbest, as I was saying it, it was like, this is not coming out right. One of those was awesome.

[Jason Moore]

I don't even know what that. What was the original 14 and a half hundred.

[Andy Holloway]

There's 14 and a half hundreds.

[Jason Moore]

14 and a half.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know it's one of those.

[Andy Holloway]

What I like is that there was no. He just proceeded, he kept going.

[Mike Wright]

It was just, it was like, okay, brain or mouth? I don't think what came out was, was, was real.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's see if I can get away with words.

[Mike Wright]

But maybe it was.

[Andy Holloway]

So we'll just keep going.

[Jason Moore]

What was the stat? I'm curious.

[Mike Wright]

1450 is what I was trying to go with.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, 14 and a half hundred. I see it. 14 and a half hundred. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

So 101 catches, just under 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

1 10th of a hundred touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

He has averaged 10 touchdowns the last four years. That you're talking Des Bryant level of scoring right there. So he was a difficult guy for me because one, you don't really know who the quarterback is going to be. Is it going to be Mark Sanchez, the butt fumbler?

[Andy Holloway]

Will it be introduction he's ever got?

[Mike Wright]

Will it be Colin Kaepernick? Will it be a draft pick? We just, we have no clue right now what they're going to do for quarterback. But the talent of Thomas is so lethal and elite you. He has to be up here for what he's done.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number 15 on our list is Golden Tate. Now that might surprise some people. It surprised me how high I had Golden Tate and it really came down to look, he plays 16 games every year, 90 plus receptions. Last year the big disparity for Golden Tate season was the average yards per catch and that might be connected to the quantity of games that Calvin Johnson played. He's not a high touchdown guy and that's the problem. So he's another guy that fits into that. Maybe where we said Keenan Allen has a big disparity but Golden Tate is. Now he doesn't have Calvin Johnson and we're going to talk to Harmon about Tate. But do you guys have anything you want to throw in right now?

[Mike Wright]

It's last year. I mean nine yards per catch, that's so low.

[Andy Holloway]

That's an incredibly low outlier and not.

[Jason Moore]

Normal for him, not just for all wide receivers. But that is not how how Golden Tate usually plays.

[Andy Holloway]

And to illustrate that point for listeners, the difference in his catches from 2014 and 15 were nine. The difference of his yards because of that about 500, 500 yard difference with nine receptions difference different. So just to illustrate the outlier that that was nine is so incredibly low, especially for a guy who was the leader in yards after the catch. So.

[Mike Wright]

And I think 13 is a bit high. So I actually think he's right. He's A man in the middle. I think it'll be closer to an 11. Maybe, maybe 11 and a half yards per catch, but he'll still be in the 90 catch range because, you know, we know the Detroit Lions of Maddie snapback. He likes to sling it.

[Jason Moore]

He is, to me, a volume guy. He's not, you know, he's not the clear cut one that you would want on a team, but there are so many targets that are leaving for that went to Calvin that I just think he's going to have 100 receptions. So he's another volume guy. PPR and Standard, they're going to be significantly different, I believe.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. But I did. So. So do you guys feel that Golden Tate could be a one?

[Jason Moore]

I think Golden Tate can in a PPR be a fantasy one. I don't.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm just, I'm speaking strictly fantasy right now.

[Jason Moore]

Strictly fantasy. I think he could sneak into being the 12th guy in a PPR.

[Mike Wright]

All right, that's. That's very fair.

[Jason Moore]

But I don't, I don't, I don't.

[Andy Holloway]

Want him as my one. Whatever that says. I don't want him as my one.

[Jason Moore]

Completely agree.

[Andy Holloway]

And so number 16, before we get into the Harmon interview, a guy. We'll talk Golden Tate, we'll talk some other guys like Doug Baldwin, who's not on this list. But number 16, a guy that I.

[Mike Wright]

Want more than Golden Tate on my team that is hanging with Mr. Amari Cooper.

[Andy Holloway]

So Amari Cooper, number 16, I think I was surprised that I didn't have him higher. Yeah, that's pretty much. And that, you know, we talked about Watkins. The issue with Watkins might be this volume number or a week to week consistency. I still have that concern about Cooper and it's from the cars. It's from car, not Cooper. It's. Can Carr piece together consistent weeks at the quarterback position to make Cooper the value that, that you'd want from a wide receiver one. Because I think, you know, you asked me who do I want as my one. I take Cooper as my one over Golden Tate for sure. But Carr showed me last year that there were weeks where whether it was going away from him, whether the way that the team played, you know, if they draft Ezekiel Elliott this year or somebody that makes that running game even more of the option that Del Rio wants to go with. Can I get Coop, Can Cooper give Me wide receiver 1 numbers 9 out of 10 weeks, or is it going to be something where it's two thirds of the time and I'm kind of regretting Having him in that spot as opposed to spending the pick on Jordy Nelson or somebody like that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Jack Del Rio is my. Probably my main reason why I had him at 88 receptions. Amari Cooper this year, which, you know, you'd hope he gets closer, you know, to that 90s hundred level. But the problem is Jack Del Rio teams, they want to run the ball, they want to play defense. They want to be a little bit more old school. Last year, when you don't have the defense and you don't necessarily have the running game, you just have no choice. And so Amari Cooper had that. But if. If things go well for the Raiders this year, and I like what they've done in the off season, and I think there's a good chance they do go out and get an Ezekiel Elliott, although I'm hoping they don't. Latavia's Murray my boy, but if that happens, then, you know, it's going to slow down the passing attack, which will be good for the Raiders but bad for fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

I think the passing, at least in terms of volume, you're looking at something that could be very similar. But the difference this year will. To me, Last year, Michael Crabtree, 146 targets. Amari Cooper, 130. You're on. You can't rule out the injury that he played through the last 25% of the season.

[Andy Holloway]

Very true.

[Mike Wright]

I think those targets flip. I think that Amari Cooper will become the official one where, I mean, he's as highly touted as he was. He's still a rookie. You still have to learn how to play in the NFL. And you have Crabtree, who's.

[Andy Holloway]

It's more the grind for rookies. It's more the grind. When they hit the second half of the season, you come out gangbusters. What did he have? He was the first rookie to have, what, 300 yard games in his first six.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Which is tremendous. So you saw the talent immediately.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And I think that he'll. He'll be far more conditioned for a full 16 game NFL season.

[Andy Holloway]

I would be.

[Mike Wright]

I like him to be the one and I. So I think he can sustain those high numbers.

[Andy Holloway]

I would be very content to hang with Mr. Cooper on draft day, I'll tell you that. Now we're going to that. That rounds out our top 16. One of you guys want to quickly read back our. The eight we talked about today?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'll grab it. So the eight that we talked about today. We started with last year's man of the show, Alan Robinson. Then we moved to Alshon. Jeffrey and Jordy Nelson got into PPR machine. Keenan Allen, my boy Sammy Watkins, Demarius, Thomas, Golden Tate and Amari hanging with Mr. Cooper.

[Andy Holloway]

And so we will put our rankings up on the website very soon. You'll be able to see all the way down the list. Obviously, wide receivers are very deep. You start three in a lot of leagues depending on your format. And we'll talk about some of the guys outside of this top 16 with Mr. Matt Harmon from NFL.com who will bring in right now.

[Jason Moore]

You talking to me?

[Mike Wright]

The fantasy footballers are pleased to bring back a good friend of the show, Matt Harmon, who has to now be considered the prince of the podcast. Because this guy, this guy is the, the guest appearance master all over the podcast universe, if you, if you haven't noticed, making the rounds because he's, he is truly the man, the man with the plan when it comes to wide receivers and of course, all over all other fantasy information. How are you doing today, Matt?

[Matt Harmon]

Yeah, I'm doing great. It's fun because as you mentioned, I've been on a lot of podcasts lately and I know we're going to be talking about something different than draft prospects today because that's mostly what I've been talking about, you know, the reception perception results for the incoming rookies and everything. So today it'll be refreshing to kind of not have to say the same thing because I try to vary it up a little bit. But after a while I do all these podcasts, I'm like, man, how are people still listening to me on about this? I made the joke.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's start with the draft process.

[Mike Wright]

I was a change of plans.

[Jason Moore]

Laquan Treadwell.

[Mike Wright]

All right, so we wanted to talk to Harmon about some, some lower considered ranked wide receivers because you got the top 10, you can, we're exhausted talking about the top 10. Let's get a little bit deeper. And some guys that we have a differing opinion on. And I'm going right for the throat, going right for Andy's jugular right off the bat. Is this my guy, Dante Moncrief? My guy obviously for the Colts. He's kind of there too. Andy and I have a very differing opinion on his ability and what he could do this year. So do you have any thoughts? Have you broken him down at all from last year?

[Matt Harmon]

Yeah, this is actually great timing and totally didn't set this up, but he's actually the guy I'm charting right now.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Matt Harmon]

Not literally as we speak, but he's I'm in progress with him about five or six games into his eight game sample and I've always been a really big. Well, I shouldn't say always because coming out of school I wasn't a big Dante Moncrie fan. I thought that he really lacked any sort of nuance in his routes and at times just it was so hard to judge him because the quarterback play at Ole Miss was really kind of poor at that time. But he was very productive nevertheless for the State, considering the state of that offense. But he still just was a guy that I didn't see developing into a starting caliber receiver. But his rookie year reception perception was very impressive relative to what I was expecting. Again, like I mentioned, I wasn't. I wasn't planning on being very impressed with him, but the results were very good. I thought that he consistently executed the limited assignments that the Colts were handing him at the time. And then last year you really started to see him kind of come along there, especially in the first two weeks. He had a really dynamic game against the jets in week two where he really showed that he had. He's one of those receivers that is clearly developing as a route runner and as a nuanced technician and I appreciate that because, you know, the athletic gifts are there as far as speed and playing the ball in the air. That that is clearly something that he came out of school with. But now it looks like he's developing to more of a professional and I really thought that he was going to have this big breakout. You know, I started touting that early last year, but of course then he ran into the Panthers and the Broncos in back to back weeks and then lost Andrew Luck for the rest of the season. So to me, I think we're kind of still incomplete with him, but he's a player I'm super high on. I love his skill set and his ability and I think that this year could be a big time year for him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that could be. I liked Moncrief a lot. And then you just wonder what's going to happen with Luck a year removed and Philip Dorset. But the guy that I want to talk about the most.

[Andy Holloway]

Quick transition.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, quick transition is a guy that, you know, some people I think get, get down on people that are high on him because we've seen him for several years he's been in the league, he's been a nothing for the most part. But then the second half of last year, Doug Baldwin comes screaming onto the scene. He gets, you know, what would equate to like a 30 touchdown pace, which of course is not sustainable.

[Mike Wright]

That's good. It's good.

[Jason Moore]

And so the question is, when we're drafting is which is the real Doug Baldwin? So I wanted to talk to the guy who watches more film on wide receivers than anybody and say, what did you see at the end of last year? Was it just happenstance or did he actually do something different? Where should we be looking at Doug Baldwin?

[Matt Harmon]

You know, I've always appreciated Doug Baldwin as a player for what he was. And you know, he came out. I think it was during one of these Seahawks playoff runs. They're all kind of starting to run together at this point. And he said he was like, you know, if I was in a different offense, I would be putting up numbers like one of the best receivers in the league. And that's probably him being confident in himself for sure. Which, which I appreciate, no doubt. But you certainly saw that when the offense transitioned from a Lynch centric run heavy approach to something more centered around Russell Wilson executing from the pocket. You saw Doug Baldwin start to put numbers and like you mentioned, we can't expect him to put up, you know, 14 touchdowns again, especially at the ridiculous pace that he did last year. He averaged 10.4 yards per target. That's probably not going to happen again. So there's going to be some statistical regression, but I don't think it's going to be very. It's going to be like catastrophic or anything like that. I think he did definitely take a legitimate step forward last year, but also, you know, he got pretty much what was for Russell Wilson historic elite play from the quarterback position in the pocket last year. So if the Seahawks off is going to continue down that path, I would expect Baldwin to continue to post, you know, like wide receiver two numbers. I think you'd be happy if he is your second wide receiver on your fantasy team. I don't think he's going to come like careening down back to earth like he, like some might expect now to.

[Andy Holloway]

Piggyback on that one guy that I think the comparison there that we need some analysis on is the Tyler Lockett he began to essentially the second half of the year. I think he really developed. You saw him grow as a wide receiver and so we have a difficult time. I think Mike and I are pretty high. Lockett, it's not for a hatred of Doug Baldwin. It's for more the unsustainable numbers. I mean I most weeks towards the end of the year it seemed like Lockett was capable of, you know, if the offense went to him in those situations. He was capable of putting up those same type of games. Where do you see those two guys and how they work out this year?

[Matt Harmon]

Yeah, I think hypothetically, as we stand today, you know, we don't know what is the deal with Jimmy Graham and quite frankly, like, I wouldn't put a ton of stock on him, you know, come, come roaring back early in the season, you know, from that Patel attendance. So he's most likely not going to be in, in consideration in this discussion. At least right now. I would expect Baldwin and Lockett to be kind of a 1A, 1B in the passing attack. You know, I would expect those two to be the two leaders and targets in terms of the Seahawks passing game. And so I think you can be pretty courage encouraged about both of them right now. If Lockett's the cheaper. Well, like if you're drafting an MFL10, I would imagine that Lockett is the cheaper asset. I think that that's probably the, the savvy move is to pick whichever one is going later because like I said, I would expect them both to kind of push for 110 targets a piece and, you know, put up pretty similar numbers. And Lockett's definitely the sexier, more big play threat. So I can understand that logic. But I do think Lockett could be the guy, like, come, you know, July and August when more people are starting to pay attention to fantasy football, that he becomes, you know, everybody's favorite.

[Andy Holloway]

He's drafted ahead of him.

[Matt Harmon]

Yeah, I could see, I could totally see that happening. So, you know, it's kind of one of those situations where I see the two players very similarly and I'd rather just take whichever one is cheaper.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, makes sense.

[Mike Wright]

So talking to another situation where we could have a 1A, 1B, the Detroit Lions, they lost their superstar Calvin Johnson. They replaced him with Marvin Jones. Superstar Marvin Jones. Not to crap on him. I think he's, he's, he's a good receiver. But you got Golden Tate, who we saw was The Yak Master 2 years ago when Calvin Johnson went down leading the league and yards after catch, just being. I'm putting up wide receiver one numbers weekly like a monster. So how do you see Detroit shaken out? Can Golden Tate be a wide receiver one? Will Marvin Jones actually be the 1A? What's your, what's your take on them?

[Matt Harmon]

Yeah, it's a tough situation right now. I wrote after, you know, when the rumors were first circulating about Calvin Johnson retiring, before he announced it officially, that, you know, based on their both of their reception perception results. You know, Calvin Johnson of course, can still play like he was certainly declining and he would have had to kind of change his role should he. He have stayed around, but clearly didn't want to do that. And that's, you know, his prerogative and that's fine. But I don't think that Golden Tate, based on his reception perception numbers are, is ready to step into like a, you know, a 16 game stretch number one wide receiver role. I think that if he gets peppered with targets, which he certainly will be, he'll be useful for fantasy. I just was kind of encouraging people in that piece not to go too far ahead with Golden Tate. Like the one thing I don't want to see is like, you know, analysis. That's all based on like extrapolating that three game stretch in 2014. You know, like this is what Golden Tate's going to do without Calvin Johnson. I think there's a little bit more to it than that. And so I think Tate will be good. I love Golden Tate as a player. Like, you know, he's one of those fun guys to watch because he'll jostle with other players and he's just a treat. I like him a lot, but I like him for what he is, you know, and I don't want to see him get too stretched, stretched too far out of that very particular role that helps the Lions offense. And that brings me to Marvin Jones, who I think he's a good player. He has one of the best contested catch conversion rates that I've ever charted. He's really solid after the catch. I think he's just really good at a lot of different things. One thing that I kind of question with him though is like he kind of gets billed as a, as a deep threat and that was one area where I thought he kind of scored below average. Well, not thought he did score below average for reception perceptions. So I see him more as a guy that you want to work the boundaries, make good plays in traffic and kind of work in that sort of, you know, underneath to short, intermediate areas of the field. So I think he will be a very helpful player for the Lions offense, but he's another guy that I don't like. I still don't think they have their true number one receiver and it wouldn't completely shock me if they want to just continue to build that strength up if they went with a high draft pick at wide receiver and throw them into the mix, you know, especially if they want to reach for upside they maybe take a Corey Coleman at 15 or something of that nature because I still think they're just not done at the wide receiver position. They've got two guys that I think can be your number two option and you're really happy with them. But I still think that they need that true. Number one. I don't think they have it right now.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'll bet they add a wide receiver in the draft. I am curious though. Let's say they didn't. Let's say they don't add a wide receiver in the draft. Both. Both him and I'm sorry, Tate. Yes, Tate is his name. Both Tate and Doug Baldwin are going in the fifth round. So the pick comes up. Who do you think would have a better year between those two guys?

[Matt Harmon]

Oh man, that's a, that's a tough question because you're on the clock, Harmon. Yeah, I know. No kidding. I think that and I could easily default to like. Well, if it's ppr, I'll take tape.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly what I was thinking.

[Jason Moore]

It's a half point ppr. Yeah, right.

[Matt Harmon]

I'm not going to do that. I think the Tate is the better player, but I'm going to kind of default to a more healthier, more well constructed offense with the stronger quarterback. Like, you know, if I can default to like a similar level player that I think will get kind of the same amount of targets and he's just attached to a better quarterback, I'm going to go with that. And that would be obviously Doug Baldwin. With Russell Wilson, I think that he will just be a more consistent week to week performer.

[Jason Moore]

So love for Matty snapback.

[Mike Wright]

So we'll wrap it up here. We can't let you off the hook with at least giving us, give us that one or two rookies that you see if they get in the perfect position, can be a high level two, maybe even sneak into that low level wide receiver. One category if anybody fits that bill. Who's going to do it?

[Matt Harmon]

Well, it's great because I think this year we're not going to see wide receivers really go in like the top 10 or anything or maybe even the top 15. We might see a guy sneak in there. There are certainly some good landing spots, but that really means that we're going to get a lot of opportunities for these young players to get with better teams if they're going later in the first round. And you know, I look at a guy like Laquan Treadwell, I think can make an immediate. I think that the concerns about his workout are A little overblown. I think he certainly proved himself as a better route runner than people give him credit for. I think he could step in and play day one. And I also feel the same way about Josh Dockson. The two are very close in my mind and I could see either one of those guys landing in a spot like in Atlanta or Cincinnati or even Minnesota and start challenging for 100 plus targets their rookie year. I think both those guys are ready made to contribute in the NFL and keep an eye out. I mentioned on Corey Coleman, you know, if he lands in a spot that there's some available targets and they need that deep threat. He's not. He might not produce on a week to week basis, but he's a guy that could, you know, be the throat stomper. You know, like your wide, like if he hits his peak, he could be your wide receiver three in year one. And like he's going to just have those weeks where he just puts the foot on the throat of the opponent.

[Mike Wright]

Goes full Mortal Kombat. Finish him.

[Matt Harmon]

Finish him. Sort of. Yeah, exactly.

[Mike Wright]

So big. Oh, you have more.

[Matt Harmon]

No, I was just going to say, I mean those are the three top guys. But look, you know, I'm also a big fan of Sterling Shepard and if he lands in a spot that needs like a slot receiver, he could be a PPR asset right away.

[Mike Wright]

So big thank you to Matt Harmon. He's all over the place if you somehow have been living under a rock. But NFL.com reception perception and a big shout out to if you haven't checked out the Backyard Banter podcast, Harmon is doing something really special over there. Getting industry people telling their story of how they got where they were. They're not doing fantasy analysis, they're doing job analysis. And we frequently get asked the question how, how did we make our start? And that's what Harmon's asking these people. And he has some fantastic guests with great stories that I think is, is really helping a lot of people. So check out the Backyard Banter podcast. Is there anything else, Harmon, that you want to plug?

[Matt Harmon]

No, I mean that's pretty much it for right now. I appreciate you guys having me on. Of course, in the kind words about my podcast. You know, it has been a really fun experience and more people have been interested in it than than I thought were going to be. And I think that the guests really do a great job of telling relatable stories of people even if they're not interested in making a career in football that people can really relate to and get inspired By, I mean, so it's really all them. I'm just kind of the guy that books them and then sits there and asks some questions. But I gotta have you guys on at some point too and definitely tell your story. There's just so many interesting people to talk to. I'm kind of overwhelmed by it. That's why I started doing two a week, because it's like, well, shoot, just crank these things out.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So, and what's your Twitter real quick for people?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Matt Harmon]

Matt Harmon underscore BYB There you go.

[Mike Wright]

So I'm sure we'll have you on again in the, in the future, but best of luck.

[Matt Harmon]

Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

A big thank you to Matt Harmon. As we said, NFL.com reception perception everywhere, everywhere that there's fantasy football, there's Matt Harmon and for good reason. Look, great, dude, great analysis.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. And this show, if, you know, you know, if you've been listening for a while, this is a show where we don't tell you to take our prescription. This is a show where we tell you to evaluate good information and make decisions on your own. So it's more about equipping you to make the right decision for you and your team. Because so many teams are different. Your league's different, the decision making is different. Jason said it earlier in the show. You know, we provide rankings. You take those rankings and you factor in the draft position, you factor in the bias of the teams in your league and so many different pieces of that puzzle. And so we just want to equip you to have a great off season. That's why this is a year round show.

[Mike Wright]

We're like a safety deposit box for, for the football information. You go to it when you need it, when you want it. You say, I'm going to find this little piece that my league doesn't know about, AKA the government. Am I right? Am I right?

[Andy Holloway]

And you get a private room and you open it up.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All by yourself.

[Matt Harmon]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

It's nothing like a safety deposit box.

[Jason Moore]

Analogy holds nothing.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, that's nothing. Or I would say that's eleven. Eleven hundred and fifty.

[Mike Wright]

No, it was fourteen and a half, stupid. Fourteen and a half hundred.

[Andy Holloway]

Fourteen and a half hundred.

[Mike Wright]

Do I tell you it's this stupid seat? I moved to the front. I got dumber.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, there's residue.

[Jason Moore]

Sorry about that. That's my bad, Mike. That's on.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, that's it for today's show. Thanks.

[Mike Wright]

Feel smarter.

[Andy Holloway]

Thanks for listening. Check us out on Twitter @ the FF Ballers. Hey, join a Foot Clan league with other competitive [e-mail] and support the show. We'll be back here next week. Thank you very much for listening and make sure you stay tuned for the show after the show on YouTube.

[Jason Moore]

If you want to know what our favorite game shows of all time are. Yes, you have to go to YouTube.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think anybody wants to know that.

[Jason Moore]

I think everyone wants.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's what I meant. Sorry, I. I didn't sell that.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the ffballers.