
Fantasy Football Podcast for February 2, 2016. The Fantasy Footballers discuss the rookies from 2015, their performances, and how they project them in fantasy football heading into the 2016 draft season. On today's show, the guys discuss the rookie quarte
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Andy Holloway
Hey, this is Fred Jackson of the Seattle Seahawks and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Jason Moore
Happy Pro bowl, everybody.
Andy Holloway
Who watched.
Jason Moore
Were you Team Irvin or were you Team Rice?
Mike Wright
Who won? Because that's the team I'm on.
Jason Moore
I don't remember because I didn't watch much of that game.
Mike Wright
I didn't watch it.
Andy Holloway
What, you didn't spend hard analysis time watching the Pro Bowl?
Jason Moore
I was going for Team Edward. Or was it Team Jacob? Yeah, I don't know. The Pro bowl is the Pro Bowl.
Mike Wright
It is what it is and we're.
Jason Moore
Not talking about it anymore.
Andy Holloway
There you go.
Jason Moore
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. We've got a great show for you today. We've got our rookie rundown. I don't even know if that is a good title for it because we're going to look at the rookies at the quarterbacks and the wide receiver positions today and we're going to break down their numbers, we're going to project them forward. We're going to drop you some pretty interesting stats about those guys and we're going to tell you whether we think they'll be better or worse next year and where they should fall in your kind of your fantasy, your draft preparation. We're also going to talk a little bit briefly at the beginning of the show about some troubling performances for players last year. If you want to get a hold of the show, it's very easy, bunch of different places, you can check us out on Twitter the FFballers. You can do it on the website thefantasyfootballers.com we've also got our fantasy community@jointhefoot.com and you can check us out on YouTube as well. So yes, no Pro bowl related questions to start the show. But our quick question is this, what players performance troubled you the very most last season? I'm going first.
Andy Holloway
You take it.
Jason Moore
And I'm going first with Andrew Luck first. The worst is what I've heard and this is not me saying Andrew Luck can't bounce back. But I'm also not a fan of blaming every single thing that I see on the field for the course of half a season on injury injuries. And I feel like that's what's taking place with Andrew Luck is we say, okay, he was hurt or banged up. And so when he played in seven games and he threw 12 interceptions and he had a completion percentage that dropped six and a half percent to 55%, I should be a little concerned. I should be a little troubled about the fact he did not come out and justify by any possible way his 20 overall position. Oh, which is what he was last year in ADP.
Mike Wright
Oh, number 20.
Jason Moore
He was 20 overall last year because everybody said he's this guarantee at the quarterback position. We didn't. Don't get me wrong. I'm just saying this is where. This is where he was drafted. That wasn't a two. Two.
Mike Wright
That's.
Jason Moore
We like Andrew Lock. We all like him in the. In the whole framework of where we would.
Mike Wright
I saw him save a puppy once.
Jason Moore
Yeah, he's a nice, nice guy. He's got a nice neck beard. But listen, he had two games without an interception. That's it. He had a very. He had his lowest quarterback rating. He had his lowest qbr, and it wasn't.
Andy Holloway
I actually have a stat for you on Andrew Luck that blew me away when I was looking this up. My guy who. Whose performance was very disappointing was Ryan Tannehill. We. We had hoped that his progression would go. And one of the things that I really wanted to see with Tannehill was how bad was his yards per attempt? Because that's one of the most telling, you know, statistics on a quarterback. We've always kind of complained about Alex Smith and the fact that he doesn't throw the ball downfield. Alex Smith, for example, was the number 14th worst or 14th best.
Jason Moore
Right in the middle.
Andy Holloway
Right in the middle at 7.42 yards of carry. Right. Yeah. Jeremy Macklin made that a lot better. Ryan Tannehill was 21st. 21st. Only through for 7.1 yards per attempt, which I thought you had.
Jason Moore
I thought you had a stat for Andrew Luck.
Andy Holloway
I do.
Jason Moore
Okay.
Andy Holloway
Andrew Luck is way down below Ryan.
Mike Wright
His yards per attempt.
Andy Holloway
His yards per attempt beat. He. He was better than.
Mike Wright
Wait, wait, wait, wait. Hold on. Tell me that he was better than Teddy Bridgewater.
Andy Holloway
Nope. He was better than only one. This is going to be bad person. Only one. And that person was Nick Foles at 6 Andrew Lux. Yards per attempt were 6.42.
Jason Moore
Does that mean I should take back everything I said and really believe it's an injury? Because that's just not justifiable. How do you throw that many interceptions with that yards per attempt?
Mike Wright
You have to remember before he lacerated his kidney like a. Like a beast. He sucked.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, he did. He was not good. He was not playing good and well. Playing well. Thank you. Oh, thank you, Mr.
Mike Wright
The grammar police are here.
Jason Moore
They bet.
Andy Holloway
So for. For me, my guy was Ryan Tannehill. But he does not hold much compared.
Jason Moore
To Mike, who's your non quarterback. You don't have it.
Mike Wright
You know what's funny is that was actually the highest you yards per attempt of Dan Hill's career. So he did improve of that statistic even though he was a very disappointing player. My disappointment, I went with Matt Ryan.
Jason Moore
This is yeah. Most troubling performance.
Mike Wright
Our most troubling.
Jason Moore
That's a great one. Matt Ryan is what's funny about Matt Ryan.
Mike Wright
He threw for about almost 4,600 yards, 21 touchdowns. But he just regressed so much from what we had we were hoping for for Matt Ryan. Now I don't, I don't have never proclaimed Matt Ryan to be an elite level quarterback, but I've always thought he was a good starting quarterback. He was getting a great new offensive scheme with Kyle Shanahan who's been terrific for fantasy. He's got Julio Jones and it just, it didn't, it didn't show up on a consistent basis. Matt Ryan had a good game here and there but for the most part he was just very disappointing. I am going.
Jason Moore
He was consistently disappointing.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
And that's why I would be trouble with that too because as opposed to Luck who was injured halfway, you got to see disappointment the whole year.
Mike Wright
I, I am going to hope that Matt Ryan just simply was having a, an issue with the, with the playbook. Just never felt comfortable because at least the last, you know, you take the.
Jason Moore
Carson Palmer effect when he came to Arizona the first year under Arians and.
Mike Wright
Yeah, for the first half didn't feel comfortable because the last two games he posted a passer rating of 119 and 103 and that was against one. One of those games was against Carolina, you know when they, we saw them take down the undefeated Panthers at the time. So perhaps there is a light at the end of the tunnel for Matt Ryan, but he is going to tumble way, way down draft boards where he could become a late round value.
Jason Moore
He was somebody who so often failed in the red zone. It was so hard to watch.
Mike Wright
It just never took, they didn't take the deep shots with Julio.
Jason Moore
No.
Mike Wright
You got to do that at least, at least twice a game. Just say Julio, go. I'm going to throw you the ball.
Jason Moore
We saw them just. He just chucked it up to him in the Carolina game.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
And look what happens. Everybody's happy.
Mike Wright
It's so weird.
Jason Moore
You're happy, I'm happy.
Mike Wright
Freak athlete does freak things.
Jason Moore
So. Okay, so we got three quarterbacks on the list. There are plenty of other guys that we'll talk about a lot this offseason, but those are the guys that stuck out to us, you know. Troubling. Yeah, some troubling issues going on with those. Ryan Tannehill is somebody who. I don't know what to expect from next year.
Mike Wright
I don't either.
Jason Moore
I really don't. So maybe that's the biggest. The biggest takeaway here is you don't know what to expect from any of these guys. You certainly. Where's Andrew Luck gonna go?
Andy Holloway
Andrew Luxury.
Jason Moore
He's not going to go 20 overall.
Andy Holloway
But he's still going to go too high. I believe that he. Where do you think as far as forget what number he's drafted overall. Where is he within quarterbacks?
Jason Moore
He's in the top three.
Mike Wright
He'll be. I was going to say top five. Top three, probably.
Jason Moore
Who would you take over him?
Andy Holloway
I think average people will take Tom Brady very high.
Mike Wright
Cam Newton.
Andy Holloway
Cam Newton will be there for sure.
Mike Wright
The recency bias quarterback states if you.
Jason Moore
Finish last and then Rogers and then Luck will be in the discussion. So you're probably right.
Andy Holloway
Top five.
Jason Moore
All right. Before we get into the weekly rewind, we'll drop some fantasy news, some NFL news on you and then we'll get into our quarterbacks and wide receiver and the guys, the rookies. The rookies at the quarterback and wide receiver position. We do want to take a minute and read a review from the listeners on itunes. We really appreciate your reviews. We've got a lot of really good feedback from the Foot clan over@jointhefoot.com on the show. We always like to be asking for feedback. This is a. This show is active and changing every, every year and so we want to know what it's alive.
Mike Wright
The show is a living being.
Jason Moore
Yep.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
It has to be fed regularly. You can mail that food to no. But we want to be receptive to feedback and we really appreciate your feedback and so we want to read a review from the listeners today.
Andy Holloway
Reviewasaurus Rex this one comes in from Kid Beyond. Kid beyond says, I started listening to Mike, Andy and Jason just before the season started. Thanks to the fantasy footballers and their mighty Foot clan, I finished first place in one league and third in my second league. Beyond that, in the past few years of playing fantasy football, I've always been left hanging and unsatisfied. At the end of the season I crave some kind of analysis and wrap up of the season past. How strong are my drafting skills? Did I make the right trades how effective was I on the waiver wire? While the fantasy footballers completely satisfy my craving with their in depth postseason analysis. This is a solid podcast and I can't wait to see what the fantasy footballers bring to the table for the remainder of the off season. Well, Kid, we will go beyond your expectations. You see what I did there? His name was Kid Beyond. And then I was like, I worked it in.
Jason Moore
Yeah, that's really impressive. See, what I liked about that review is the shout out to the Foot Clan itself. Because this show is made up of listeners who have lots of good ideas and thoughts about their teams and the players involved and decisions to be made. And so I like to shout out to the Foot Clan as well.
Andy Holloway
News and notes from around the league.
Jason Moore
Oh, my goodness. Is it true? Could it be true? Are we going to be seeing the end?
Mike Wright
Oh, you gotta. You gotta play the sad music.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. That I was waiting.
Mike Wright
Wonderful sad music.
Jason Moore
No, I know. I'm picking something special out.
Andy Holloway
This is. I think it's deserved.
Jason Moore
Calvin Theodore Johnson, Megatron. All right. That's not his middle name, but it sounded more dramatic. Calvin Johnson could be retiring.
Mike Wright
He's. He put notice into the team. He said, it's official. I am retiring. Now he has a. An entire off season to think about that. How much money is he owed next year? Like 18.
Jason Moore
He's made. He's making a lot of cash.
Andy Holloway
I think it's 16.
Jason Moore
A lot of cash.
Mike Wright
So next year he could come back and play football, make $16 million. Now, money is not everything. Calvin Johnson certainly has plenty of that. And maybe he's done. Maybe he's.
Jason Moore
He's broken down a lot.
Mike Wright
Maybe he's forcing a trade. No, these. I'm just throwing out possible options and. Or maybe it's just like you say. He's. His body is starting to turn on him. He's tired of losing. And I don't. I think he. I think he's coming back.
Andy Holloway
The Lions still hold out hope. They said that they still want him to come back and play.
Mike Wright
The wounds are fresh.
Andy Holloway
They hope that he will and there is a chance. But I will say this. If I am drafting very soon in a best ball league, I am grabbing me some golden tape while his stock is low. Because when we saw two years ago, especially when. When Calvin Johnson was out of the lineup, Golden Tate was a monster. So looking forward, maybe.
Jason Moore
I do not think he will be back. I am. I'm in disagreement. Mike. I think. I think we've already had that conversation. This was a rumor that came out A month ago. And then now we have more cemented confirmation on that from the family and the team side. It's not done deal by any stretch and that's a lot of money. We saw rumors about Marshawn Lynch. They didn't get go this far last year, but $12 million talks you back into playing. So. All right, what else do we got going on? If he were to go, ESPN Lions reporter Michael Rothstein says maybe Marvin Jones would be heading Detroit's way.
Mike Wright
That's interesting. Marvin Jones is a nice complimentary wide receiver, and I think Golden Tate is good enough to be a one. I think he showed that the. Not this last year. So two years ago when Calvin Johnson missed all that time where Golden Tate was the man. Get him a good complimentary piece like Marvin Jones and you can still have success.
Jason Moore
All right. The jets could have interest in tight end Scott Chandler. That was reported. This is an offense that did not use the tight end very much.
Mike Wright
What's interesting though is it would be a. He's be reunited with Chan Gailey and Scott Chandler was a touchdown. He was a touchdown guy up in Buffalo with Chan Gailey. So why is this viable? I mean, well, Scott Chandler maybe gets a boost. Could be a drain on Brandon Marshall or Eric Decker if you have another touchdown capable guy.
Andy Holloway
I see this news and I go, don't do it.
Jason Moore
I love Brandon Marshall and I don't think a lot.
Andy Holloway
Mostly irrelevant.
Jason Moore
I mean, I agree. I don't think Scott Chandler's skill set's much different than what, Cumberland.
Mike Wright
But he's shown he can catch touchdowns. He did it for the Patriots too.
Jason Moore
Yeah, by did it for the Patriots.
Mike Wright
Wait, you line him up on the one, he's capable of doing it. Not every tight end could do that.
Jason Moore
No, that's why it's news. So, all right. Impending free agent Chris Ivory said the jets might not have the cap space to resign him.
Mike Wright
Hey, very interesting.
Jason Moore
Chris Ivory. Let's say he walks. What are the jets do. Are they drafting for the position to compliment, you know, with Bilal Powell? Are they really relying on a Ridley Powell type of backfield?
Andy Holloway
Maybe that's not a. Not a super reliable group. But I do think if. If that ends up happening, Powell looks great. They'll probably address it through the draft. If cap is the issue.
Jason Moore
Alfred Morris maybe lands in New York.
Mike Wright
He's a grinder. Swip swap. Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Very, very similar. I think the free agent market is going to be much better this year for running backs than last year. Last year there was a lot of oh, where is everybody going to go? And there wasn't much interest for all of the free agent running backs. And the reason was because the running back draft class was enormous. We heard about it for two years prior to last year's draft that the depth at running back this past year was supposed to be great. And what I keep hearing from the people that I actually trust this year is that there's just no running backs in this year's draft class. There's not a lot of depth, not a ton where you can go into the draft, no matter what draft pick you're at, and go, we can get a guy that we like, Carlos Williams.
Mike Wright
In the fifth round or whatever it was.
Jason Moore
Oh, the list goes on. Right. And you had so many guys, even undrafted guys. Thomas Rawls contributed. Yeah, Thomas Rawls. All right. The Chiefs have signed Zeus. He got that money. $46 million extension. Kelsey had a good game in the Pro Bowl. From what I've read from people who.
Mike Wright
Watch, I think it's a good time to be Travis Kelsey right now. I mean, he had a. He had this Pro bowl game. He got this brand new contract. He also has a new reality show of basically the Bachelor starring Travis Kelsey.
Jason Moore
Which did he negotiate first, do you think he was negotiating? I think the Bachelor deal.
Andy Holloway
As soon as the Bachelor deal got signed, the chief said, oh, we got to sign him now. He's going to be big. He's going to be a big deal. He's going to command some money once his. So he reality TV star fame hits.
Mike Wright
He is the second highest paid tight end.
Jason Moore
I. Those stats are always laughable to me.
Andy Holloway
Sometimes because of the recency because every.
Jason Moore
Year, Charles Clay, last year was the same situation. You can't pay. I mean, you're not going to pay him more than the best, but I wouldn't.
Mike Wright
Do you know who's paid the most?
Jason Moore
Wait, hold on.
Mike Wright
Is not.
Jason Moore
No, it's not. The most guaranteed money is. Where is that? Oh, my goodness. It's recent. Go ahead.
Mike Wright
He destroyed his knee.
Jason Moore
Jimmy.
Mike Wright
Jimmy Graham.
Andy Holloway
Oh, yeah.
Jason Moore
Well, and then that's the thing too. Is it the contract? Is it the game money?
Mike Wright
The newest contract is always makes him the most paid. But it's just. It's still interesting.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Well, before we get to the rookies and look at the quarterbacks and the wide receivers this year, we want to take a second thank our sponsor for today's show, Harry's. Harry's is the best place to get shaving. And you know what I was thinking about this week as I got another Harry's package in the mail. My favorite thing about Harry's look, they've got great razors, the best razors and the best prices for razors. Those are the reason that if you shave you need to go to Harrys.com and order through their easy online ordering system. But there is just something great about getting a package in the mail and when you open up, I just love it. I get the extra key, I get to go to my mailbox, open that extra box and then, yeah, I get to unpack. And the packaging on Harry is very nice. Well done. You can actually get for $15 their starter razor kit which comes with extra blades, a handle, face wash, the whole deal to get you started. And Harry's doesn't like to discount because their prices are already really, really low. But we worked out a special offer for all of our listeners. Harry's will give you $5 off your first order with the promo code footballers. So stop overpaying for a great shave. Go to Harry's.com right now. That's H A R R Y-S.com enter code footballers at checkout and start shaving better today.
Mike Wright
Hey, rookie.
Jason Moore
Welcome to the NFL. Alright, it's time for the rookie rundown. We're going to look at that very long list of incredible rookie quarterbacks and we're projecting them forward and we're going to talk about wide receivers, what guys did and what we think they'll do next year. The question in part, at least for, for Mike and for Jason and myself, is this better or worse? Are we expecting better things from these guys? It should be kind of a foregone conclusion for high rookies, right? They got to be better. But we'll see, we'll see what we think because their situations change, things change. And I might have been exaggerating about the very long list of contributing rookie quarterbacks.
Andy Holloway
There's two, there's two guys total.
Jason Moore
There is Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. Let's give these guys some, let's give them some credit. Some pretty good rookie years. Different things happen for each of them. Winston really turned his season around and became somebody who was an ascendant talent and the better quarterback right now.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, well, you know, one of the differences between Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota was what happened with the offense around them. What happened with Jameis Winston as the year went on is they start, they started to really open him up. The difference between those two guys when it comes to completion percentage and yards per attempt are very, very Similar. Neither one beat the other in any dominating way. The real difference was Jameis Winston had, you know, threw the ball way, way more. He had 312 completions to 230 for Marcus Mariota. So James Winston finished with over 4,000 yards. Great. I mean, that is, that is historically great numbers for a quarterback.
Jason Moore
Let me, let me put this. Oh, sorry, go ahead. No, what all I was going to say about that is Mario only played 12 games.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
If you actually look at a per game basis, Mario to average, according to fantasy data, 17.5 points per game. Winston was 17.2. And so that again, just looking at that doesn't tell the whole tale because you had a season that changed for Winston. So you look at the back half of his year, he had a much better back half of the season. He's got a lot of weapons that I really like in Tampa. But projecting these guys forward, better or worse for either guy.
Andy Holloway
I think that next year you're going to see very similar fantasy numbers from Jameis Winston and an improvement for Marcus Mariota. And I base that mostly for my own opinion on what I see as the biggest outlier of all that they did this year, which is Jameis Winston getting six rushing touchdowns. He got six extra touchdowns on, you know, he only rushed for 213 yards. It just didn't seem like he is built for that for, you know, ongoing purposes. And I don't think he's going to, I mean, six rushing touchdowns, that's got to put him in the top, what, three this year?
Jason Moore
Cousins had five.
Mike Wright
Yeah, see, this is where I actually disagree with you, where I think five.
Jason Moore
Is about where I'd put him.
Mike Wright
Six, three, 230 pounds. I mean, Cam Newton is only 15 pounds heavier now. Cam is a different level athlete, but I'm just saying Winston is large. And where you're in that range where it's, you're on the two yard line, you go to pass, it breaks down. He's.
Jason Moore
He can take, he's quick.
Mike Wright
And I. For 22 touchdowns through the air. I think that can go up. I don't expect Doug Martin, let's assume Doug Martin is back. I don't expect Martin to have the. I expect him to have a worse year next year because I thought Martin had researched tremendously. I think it will go down. His production will go down as Jameis Winston's production goes up. I think Winston is a quarterback one next year.
Jason Moore
That was going to be my question. He finished 13th this year.
Mike Wright
I think he improves. I think he becomes a Quarterback one. What we don't want to overlook for Marcus Mariota, though, it's a triple threat. Triple threat. And what do I mean by that? He throws touchdowns, he runs for touchdowns, and he catches touchdowns.
Jason Moore
He did. He caught one. It's good to see you focusing on that, that statistic.
Mike Wright
He'll do that every year.
Jason Moore
It's interesting because if you just look at the numbers, I like a lot of what I see from Mario to more than Winston. Obviously, Winston had a good year. I think they're going to be very close next year. I actually think they'll both be in the QB1 range.
Mike Wright
They got to get Mariota another. Another option, another pass catching option, in my opinion.
Jason Moore
Look, he threw less interceptions. Yes, he played a few less games, but he had 19 touchdowns to win since 22. He had a better quarterback rating. He. He had a good. He had a better completion percentage. I said it's hard to choose between those guys because I like Mike Evans a whole lot more than I like the weapon. You know, the weapon is the way it feels like Delaney Walker, Dorial Green.
Andy Holloway
Beckham, who we'll also talk about today.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
They started using him more and more as the season went on. And I think he can be an added weapon to Mariota for all intents and purposes this next year. So that, that is one thing I like. Whereas Vincent Jackson, I think they're going to bring him back despite his cap number. And he seems like he's not getting any younger. I don't know why.
Mike Wright
Yeah, but he doesn't have to be the one anymore.
Jason Moore
So, Mike, if we're breaking into the top 12 with these guys, are you taking these two sophomores ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick next year?
Mike Wright
Ooh, Ryan Fitzpatrick. You got to contextualize draft round and everything, but let's just say I'm the last one picking a quarterback. I have my pick of all three. I might go with Winston.
Jason Moore
Okay. Other guys in that range would be like the Eli's, the Staffords, Kirk Cousins, and then on the other side would be like Carr and Alex Smith.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I think most of those guys, I would take over Winston, but he's going to be a guy that's. As of right now, he might end up on some of my teams because I think you can get him later.
Jason Moore
None of my pitching of Mario to stats can convinced either of you that you'd rather have him over Winston next year.
Mike Wright
I need a.
Jason Moore
Because you said you take Winston, Jason, you seem to be on the Winston side.
Andy Holloway
I would take Winston over Mariota because I think Winston, the offense is. Is going to be based around me. They took Dirt Cutter and made him the head coach because of what he was able to do with Winston. That was a big reason for it. So I would take Winston over Mariota.
Mike Wright
Now. Let's see.
Jason Moore
Others might think it's a bunch of malarkey, though.
Andy Holloway
If Tennessee, they get a good coach.
Mike Wright
If Tennessee goes out there and they foolishly spend high draft capital on a dominant wide receiver, please spend it on your offensive line. Please just say that. If they do something like that, if they go Detroit Lions and just keep drafting high wide receivers, then that could sway me over to Mario. If I know that Walker and Green Beckham have somebody else because Kendall Wright has.
Jason Moore
I love Kendall. Right. I, like, can't stay healthy.
Mike Wright
Yeah. And his health is just. Overall has been disappointing, so. But between the two, I would lean to Winston.
Jason Moore
So you lean Winston. You lean Winston.
Mike Wright
Where do you lean?
Jason Moore
I'm right on the fence there. I guess. I'm with you. I'd need to be. I would need to be further convinced about Tennessee's offense. And I mean it at the offensive line position. He was beat up this year. They give up a ton of sacks. So I'll go the Winston side for the fact that, you know, I don't think Dirk Cutter, he used to be Arizona State coach. I don't think he's the best coach in the world. I think he's a pretty good offensive coordinator. I think his offenses score a lot of points. So I'll lean Winston as well. I'll make it unanimous.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
All right. You guys want to talk about some rookie wide receivers?
Andy Holloway
Yes, I do.
Jason Moore
How many are we going to go through today? We're going to talk about 10 of them.
Mike Wright
Sure. 10. We could do it.
Jason Moore
We'll see.
Mike Wright
We could do it.
Jason Moore
All right, so let's. Let's do this. Is this sorted by draft order? Is this what I have in front of me?
Andy Holloway
That is exactly how this list we're giving you today is how they were drafted in the NFL.
Jason Moore
All right, it's time for Omari Cooper.
Andy Holloway
Yes. Really?
Jason Moore
So Amari Cooper had 72 for over a thousand yards. 10, 70 and six touchdowns. So what do we think about Amari Cooper? Better or worse moving forward? We talked about him a little bit on a couple shows ago. What are the things we like about his situation and the player? What are things that we don't like if they exist?
Andy Holloway
There are so few things I don't like about Amari Cooper, and I'm finding myself So I was in love with Latavius Murray for next year. Yeah, you married.
Jason Moore
Murray.
Andy Holloway
And I'm also in love with Amari Cooper. So I think I might be becoming an Oakland Raiders fan here.
Jason Moore
Isn't tomorrow Groundhog's Day?
Mike Wright
Is that. Is that true?
Jason Moore
It's just the Murray thing reminded me of it.
Mike Wright
Oh, I got you.
Andy Holloway
So with Amari Cooper, you have a guy today.
Jason Moore
Today is.
Andy Holloway
If we're talking. If we are talking about better or worse next year, there's about a dozen reasons why he should be better. One, he's not going to be a rookie. Right. So he's going to be more in the system. All of that. You look at how his numbers came about and how he was hobbled at.
Jason Moore
The end of the year, he wore down.
Andy Holloway
They shouldn't have even had him on the field. I remember watching him not be able to run a route.
Jason Moore
And yeah, your exact comment was something like, he's not even out there. Something to that extent.
Andy Holloway
And it was. It was just gross watching him try to play through that. But his numbers were affected by that. And I hope, I hope next draft season that his value isn't as high as it should be because of his total numbers. Probably won't be able to catch up.
Mike Wright
To jump in with what you were saying, in the second half of the season, you could pick out four games, four complete games, where he had 34 total yards in those four games.
Jason Moore
Exactly 34.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
A game of 20, a game of 10, a game of 0 and a game of 4.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, he said combined.
Jason Moore
Oh, okay. You mean in those four games he's hit 34 yards?
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
Wow. I thought you meant like he hit 34 in each one or something.
Mike Wright
Oh, no, no. I mean, he had 30 consistently.
Andy Holloway
Terrible.
Mike Wright
Like you add up the total of four games, he had 34 yards.
Jason Moore
Remember Austin Severian Jenkins came out and.
Andy Holloway
He had 3 for 31.
Jason Moore
3 for 31 games. I thought we had something going on.
Mike Wright
So to me that I need one more yard. You gave Amari Cooper just his average production in those four games, and he's just. He's a monster.
Andy Holloway
Well, and here's what I love about Amari Cooper and a big reason why he was drafted. First, his yards after contact were humongous. He led the entire league as far as rookies and yards after contact. And to give you an idea of where he finished, he finished as kind of that wide receiver. Two best, the 25th ranked yards after contact tied exactly with Brandon Marshall, who's very, very good at yards after Contact. So as a rookie to do that, I really like his ability to, to make his own, you know, game flow. It doesn't matter whether he's getting a screen or a deep pass, he can bust something off.
Jason Moore
Well, and let me, let me do this for you guys. We like Derek Carr, we like the trajectory of Oakland. Right. This is where they finished last year. What do you think they finished in points per game? Probably like 20th, 17th, 17th in the league. Pass yards, 16th. Okay. This was overall yards per game. 24th.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
The whole team, not just Amari Cooper, really fell apart in the second half.
Andy Holloway
Room to improve, but that's what we.
Jason Moore
Like to see, some margin, rookie ascendant. I think we all really like Amari Cooper. I know I do. So we say better for Amari Cooper. Do you want to throw a comparison out there? Is there, is there a wide receiver from this past year? You think that he'll be in that department? Because I see somebody like. Even though they're not by any means. I'm not comparing the players themselves, but the stat line of a guy like Brandon Cook seems well within the, the realm of possibility for me.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I think he can easily.
Jason Moore
Somebody with, you know, nine touchdowns, 1100 yards.
Andy Holloway
That sounds right about where he's finished. Which would put him as like a low end wide receiver. 1. And I think you're going to be able to draft him better than probably outside of the, outside of the one range.
Jason Moore
Okay, so good point. This year Crabtree was better fantasy wise.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Jason Moore
On the year. So you change, right?
Andy Holloway
Absolutely. Amari Cooper will be the number one fantasy.
Jason Moore
It was marginal. Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Yep. Now the next guy who was drafted by the NFL, I'm going to, I'm going to declare he will do better. He will absolutely do better next year than he did this year. And that is Kevin White.
Mike Wright
That's a hot take.
Andy Holloway
Hot take Kevin White.
Jason Moore
Between him and Perryman, we get two brand new rookies.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
To that degree. So Kevin White, what do we expect?
Andy Holloway
I expect him to, other than be.
Jason Moore
Able to suiting up, tying his shoes with both of these, putting on the.
Andy Holloway
Helmet, man, there is so little to be able to bank on you. You've got to wonder, you know, with a coach like John Fox, specifically in White's case, he seemed so frustrated and like angry that he wasn't out there. You know, he's an old school. You play through injuries, you do these things and he, you know, I expect Alshon Jeffrey to come back every side.
Jason Moore
That was the question I was going to ask you because people are going to throw his name out there in the Calvin Johnson retirement discussions as well because he's bonafide when you bring somebody in. Like to me, Marvin Jones is Golden Tate, right?
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
I mean from when I watched him on the field, they catch the same routes, they make plays after the catch.
Andy Holloway
Which is why if he comes into that Golden Tate role as that number two, it might be good. Golden take can.
Jason Moore
Well, okay. But they might. Well, all I'm saying is Detroit might look outwardly to get up her to typical neither. Neither of those guys is a jump ball receiver for what Calvin's done in the. In the end zone is my point. Not that Jeffrey's going to leave. So you think Jeffrey's staying?
Andy Holloway
I think Jeffrey's staying. So you're going to have Kevin White come in, have a decent fake rookie year and I expect him, you know, if you want to talk about who's he going to be like, I think that what you're going to have is you're going to have him come in and be at best kind of like a Tyler Lockett. Tyler Lockett didn't have production wise. He didn't have a bad season. He had a really good rookie season for a wide receiver.
Mike Wright
But do you mean like low yards or low yards, high touchdowns or you're saying.
Andy Holloway
I mean about where Tyler Lockett finished. Tyler Lockett had about 50 catches.
Mike Wright
In my head I was hearing Tyler Iford. I apologize.
Jason Moore
Oh, I have my projections for White well above Tyler Lockett. Tyler Lockett is A. Was 42nd in the league this year. I do not think that that is. I think Kevin White, if he plays where he was drafted and his abilities are going to be much higher than that. To me, I would put him in the. I'd put him about what Cooper did this past year. I would put where I'd put him at, which is right outside the top 24, right in that range. A good season up and down.
Mike Wright
That's where I'm looking. I'm looking at like the Reuben Randall range. Ruben Randall was 29. He had just under 800 yards and eight touchdowns.
Jason Moore
That's incredible by the way, just hearing you say Ruben. Yeah, because Ruben Randall was irrelevant.
Mike Wright
He was not.
Jason Moore
But he, he was.
Andy Holloway
He was really irrelevant.
Jason Moore
So weird. It's so weird because we can make these like conclusions that aren't conclusions in fantasy. Where you talked up Rubin Randle all preseason. He stunk. He was away from so long and he wasn't.
Andy Holloway
Well, the Giants were very.
Mike Wright
He was not.
Jason Moore
He wasn't. I Mean, Ruben Randle. Listen to this. Okay? Perfect example. Tangent time. Ruben Randle, Travis Benjamin. Back to back in fantasy. Randle beat Benjamin. Benjamin, he got all the headlines this year. Right.
Mike Wright
Because he was super sexy right off the top.
Jason Moore
But, I mean, because he broke out.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
Become room.
Andy Holloway
And Randall, the beginning of the year. Those guys who do well. Those guys who do well out of the gate end up with much better. It's funny. It's like the opposite of recency bias.
Jason Moore
Currency. They get early currency that carries on to next year.
Andy Holloway
Chris Ivory is going to have a much better currency because of how strong he came out.
Jason Moore
You know, and here's guys that finish behind Randall. Benjamin, Akin, Michael, Floyd, Bryant, all those guys are going ahead of Reuben Randall next year. I can promise you that.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
And that's why I will draft Reuben Randall.
Jason Moore
Oh, my God.
Mike Wright
I can't quit you, Reuben Randall.
Andy Holloway
All right, so. So we're going a little out of order here. But. But we should probably talk about Rashad Perriman since he's the other rookie.
Jason Moore
Sure, we'll do that and come back.
Andy Holloway
Didn't play to me. I see a lot more opportunity for Perryman than White now. White's the more talented guy, the more skilled. But, you know, Kamar Aiken is no Alshon Jeffrey, and they need. They desperately need a wide receiver. I am of the mindset. I do not believe that Steve Smith can come back and be anything relevant this next year. Maybe he works hard and proves me wrong, but for me, I don't see him as like, in the equation. So that, to me, says Rashad Perryman will have the opportunity, which is even more important than talent. So long as you're both talented.
Jason Moore
Yeah. And we broke down the numbers at the Ravens this year compared to seasons past where they've been a team that can be at the forefront of the league offensively, and they weren't this past year. So that there's a precedent there for Flacco being able to find a new weapon like Perryman. The opportunity, like you said, is there. I don't know about the skill set. We'll see that on the field, but he was drafted high enough to where he should contribute in a real way. Akin is very much a complimentary guy. We all know that. We've watched him play football.
Mike Wright
I like the. The potential opportunity that Perryman has going into next year. Now we got to monitor the. The recovery of Joe Flacco. I mean, we got. He tore his acl. That's a good point. And it was a little bit later in the season. I would expect it will. He'll be ready to go at the beginning of the season. But you just. That's something we got to keep in mind. And but for Paramin, I'm not expecting he huge things but he is a guy that I will be gladly taking in the 89 rate round area where you're like, he's just the upside if he hits.
Jason Moore
I think he's a, I think he's a 65 and 800 type of guy with like, with five touchdowns. Yeah, yeah.
Andy Holloway
And because of the way that offense goes, he's going to be one of those up and down guys. The DeSean Jackson, Tory Smith have a big blow up game then and then.
Jason Moore
Yeah. So. And it's, it's unfortunate for both of these guys. They both wanted to come in and have a contribution. I think Perryman probably was more of a disappointment because it always seemed like he was gonna be back until he just, he never was. As opposed to White who we all knew was Alba. John Fox playing.
Mike Wright
I just talked to John Fox.
Jason Moore
Is he still playing this year?
Mike Wright
He's still probable.
Jason Moore
All right, so let's talk about devonte Parker. You know, it'd be easy to say he didn't play part of the year because he really didn't. He didn't contribute in a meaningful way. Which is, it's the same thing with Nelson Aguilar, our next guy on the list. I mean they both played and didn't play in a way.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Jason Moore
So devonte Parker however, impresses me personally if someone will use him. So what do you think about him?
Andy Holloway
I'm in agreement with you. He was very impressive. He played about 45% of the team's snaps on the year. Now that came more and more later in the year. We saw that he could do things with the ball even though he was.
Jason Moore
You know, probably about spin it on his fingers.
Andy Holloway
He played, you know, less snap percentage than Nelson Aguilar did by a lot. Right? Well, about 45 to 58%.
Jason Moore
Oh, okay.
Andy Holloway
So you know a good chunk. But he ended up with a lot more deep balls from Tannehill. 400 and almost 500 yards on 23 receptions. That's, that's really good. It shows that you've got that kind of one that that wide receiver one. So you've got a whole new crew coming in to Miami and there's so many question marks here with to me with Jarvis Landry, with devonte Parker, with Ryan Tannehill, the potential to me is that devonte Parker could end up becoming a wide receiver, one for the team and have huge blow up potential. There are so many question marks.
Jason Moore
We had a big waterbed at the beginning of the year where I thought Devonte Parker would end up as their highest fantasy producer. When I, when I bring out my big 3D printer and I print myself a wide receiver, I print up a guy like Devonte Parker.
Mike Wright
Wait, wait, wait. You've been holding out on us. We got a 3D printer.
Jason Moore
How do you think my fancy teams end up this? So he's 6 3, 210 pounds. I mean, just build me that as a wide receiver throw. Tannehill threw the ball up to him several times where he went and made the play. And so I like guys that are built that way because whether it's Demaryius Thomas. Right. In the past that started slower in their rookie year and kind of the talent transcends eventually, in my opinion.
Mike Wright
And speaking of Demarius Thomas, Adam Gaze, the guy who turned to Mary's Thomas into a superstar, is here with Devonte Parker. Over the final six games of the season, Parker averaged 74 yards a game. I mean, he, he really exploded at the end, the spotlights and everything. People stopped paying attention to the Dolphins, but Parker was over there doing work.
Jason Moore
They're the exact same size, by the way. I didn't realize that him and Thomas. Damaris Thomas. Yeah. Thomas has him by about 20 pounds, but they're the same height.
Mike Wright
The problem for Parker last year was Rashad Matthews. Yeah, Matthews was actually playing capable wide receiver. So the coaching staff went with the veteran as opposed to the rookie. So Parker couldn't get out there and really show what he could do.
Andy Holloway
And that's not going to happen this year.
Mike Wright
No, it won't.
Andy Holloway
Think about the correlation. You talk about Adam Gase when he was with Denver between demarius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders and he really focused on those two wide receivers in that system. The big guy and then the. And then the possession guy. And now you've got Devonte Parker, big guy and Jarvis Landry, possession guy. I mean, Adam Gase coming in. So potential is there for his system to work.
Jason Moore
You two were the Hearns Decker lovers. Why, why didn't you ever jump on the Rashad Matthews? I feel like he should have just finished. We did a little bit ago.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I feel like we were actually pretty high on him.
Jason Moore
Didn't you and Rashad Matthews and Dante Moncrief and Decker and them all go out for a meal one time or something?
Mike Wright
Yeah, yeah, we all Split the bill because that's what twos do.
Jason Moore
I was gonna say you didn't just bill Brandon Marshall for the. For the evening. All right, so who are we talking about now? Let's go ahead and let's discuss Aguilar. We've discussed him a little bit on the show.
Andy Holloway
I believe the word you're looking for is not discussed but disgusted.
Jason Moore
We've discussed it.
Mike Wright
Aguilar discussed our disgust.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, Andy and I disagree on this. I know Andy likes Nelson Aguilar. I do not. I love to mock his number. He finished just barely ahead of Kevin White. Amber shot perriman despite playing 58% of snaps on his team, which was the second highest for wide receivers. He got 23 catches on the year. So look, Nelson Aguilar.
Jason Moore
That's really good grammar. Again, he got 23 catches.
Andy Holloway
You're welcome. He's the low blow.
Mike Wright
He was just dominating your face. So you're like, yeah, you can't. You can't speak.
Jason Moore
My arguments are all projective of Aguilar. It's west coast system. It's Doc Doug Peterson coming in, implementing a system that is conducive to Aguilar and actually targeting the guy. So I can't argue. I can't go. Yeah, 23 for 281 and one and some other drops.
Andy Holloway
283 if.
Jason Moore
Thank you. I need those two extra yards if.
Andy Holloway
Sammy Biscuits is the quarterback next year, which I believe. Sammy Biscuits will be the quarterback if he is. He just doesn't have a good rapport with Nelson Aguilar.
Jason Moore
You don't have a good repertoire.
Andy Holloway
He doesn't trust the routes or whatever it is because he was on the field enough for the whole year to see whether or not they've got a connection.
Jason Moore
Look, look, you can. You got to throw some of that out, don't you? Chip Kelly's gone.
Mike Wright
Yes, a lot of it.
Jason Moore
He's a rookie who didn't get worked in.
Andy Holloway
All right, so let's talk about comparison for next year.
Jason Moore
Let me pick somebody out since your comparison will be Brashad Perryman. So Aguilar. What did I say he'd do? Marvin Jones. Give me Marvin Jones's number. Nelson Aguilar.
Andy Holloway
Basically a three.
Jason Moore
Basically a four. Three to four range.
Mike Wright
Just has those bigger games every once in a while.
Jason Moore
Martin Jones had about 800 yards, four touchdowns, 65 catches. Yeah, give me, give me. Give me Marvin Jones's numbers.
Andy Holloway
I will take Devin Funches his numbers where he's. All right. He can have a good game here or there.
Jason Moore
But 470 yards.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
So he'll double up.
Andy Holloway
He'll double his production.
Mike Wright
So you're. For your projections, though, you still have Jordan Matthews as the alpha.
Jason Moore
Yeah, okay, I do. Despite the conversation where Jason didn't think I did. So let's. Let's go to the less biased source here. I don't know why we'd be. We're not biased. We just have different opinions. But Nelson Aguilar, Mike, he is. Is he more like Devin Funchester? Is he more like Marvin Jones?
Mike Wright
He's more like a Marvin Jones to me. And I'm not.
Jason Moore
That's correct.
Mike Wright
I'm not. I would not consider myself an Aguilar guy at this point. I think that with Doug Peterson coming in, I think that Jordan Matthews, I believe that they will use him kind of somewhat like Macklin.
Jason Moore
Man, is the football season here yet? And I want to see this. We're almost.
Mike Wright
We're almost there. Almost close.
Andy Holloway
Hold. Hold.
Mike Wright
Fire till you see the whites of their eyes.
Andy Holloway
There you go.
Mike Wright
But Aguilar, he'll be maybe an okay flex type of guy. I'm just. I'm not.
Jason Moore
That was what that 40 range would be.
Mike Wright
And this is full transparency here. I. When we were looking through this list, you're saying, well, this was draft order. I'm like, al Galore was drafted in the first round. Oh, yeah, he was.
Jason Moore
See, that's a huge, huge point in my favor.
Mike Wright
Well, he was drafted the first round by Chip Kelly.
Jason Moore
Hey, no. He was projected in the first round by a lot of people. He was good at USC guys.
Mike Wright
He was drafted. Well, USC is. They like to send wide receivers to the NFL and then have them stink.
Andy Holloway
That is absolutely true. It's happened again and again and again.
Mike Wright
It's going.
Andy Holloway
So next up, I'm right in the middle of you guys. Here's a guy who.
Mike Wright
This one's full wild card.
Andy Holloway
This one is full wild card. He had about the same stats as Nelson Aguilar.
Jason Moore
Philip Dorset.
Andy Holloway
Philip Dorset coming in to the vaunted Indianapolis Colts offense with Andrew Luck, who we just threw shade on earlier today, really was not used. He only played 19% of snaps on the season. We don't know what to make of Philip Dorset at all. He's a speedy guy. That is not needed there now. I don't.
Jason Moore
He's absolutely needed.
Andy Holloway
Well, now with Andre Johnson going, I'm saying when they drafted him, it just didn't.
Jason Moore
He wasn't. You're saying he wasn't needed?
Andy Holloway
He wasn't.
Jason Moore
Right?
Andy Holloway
He wasn't so this coming year, they obviously like Dante Moncrief. I believe the Colts are going to have him in. The real question is what they're going to do with Andre Johnson. Do they bring Andre Johnson back?
Mike Wright
No way. You got to. You got to put him out to.
Jason Moore
Pasture, cut the cord.
Andy Holloway
Which is exactly why I'm afraid they're going to bring them back to the woodshed.
Mike Wright
We go because that's the right thing to do, is let him go.
Andy Holloway
Exactly. They're making some mistakes there, man. They're gm, baby.
Mike Wright
I think they'll let him go. Why Dorsett is a wild card for me is Moncrief, is Dante Moncrief was successful, especially when Andrew Luck was the quarterback. And to me, I think Andrew Luck likes the comfort. He has a comfortability with Moncrief and clearly it's there with Hilton. So where does Dorsett fit into all of this? Not saying you can't have three successful receivers if you're a high volume pass offense. We've seen that.
Jason Moore
Arizona, Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown. John Brown is a great comparison to Philip Dorsett's involvement. Not this past year, but the year before. The year before.
Andy Holloway
Right. Yeah.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Mike Wright
Yeah. That's John Brown's rookie year.
Jason Moore
Yep. Sure.
Mike Wright
Dorsett could absolutely be that. Which is. That's a useful fantasy guy. He just is.
Jason Moore
Flip a coin.
Mike Wright
He's not going to be a reliable weekly guy.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. To me. So there's.
Jason Moore
There's a lot of well known fact when you google John Brown's name. There's a lot of John Brown. Yeah. In the world, including the abolitionist John Brown.
Andy Holloway
There are going to be a lot of different upside flyer type picks that you make at the end of the draft next year in the conversation will be Philip Dorsett. For my teams. He won't be the guy that I'm drafting. Because what I'm looking for, you're looking for Ruben Randall. I'm looking for opportunity more than anything.
Jason Moore
Punch me right in the rain.
Andy Holloway
And I think Philip Dorsett's highest opportunity is going to be being the third wide receiver on the team. That's his. I believe that's his ceiling.
Mike Wright
Yeah. But for guys, you're taking that far in the draft, you're looking for talent, opportunity. It's not just immediate opportunity, Jason, it's the potential that Dante Moncrief goes down, Dorsett comes in. He's a massively talented guy and he could thrive, he could explode. So that's why Aguilar or Dirt next.
Jason Moore
Year, Aguilar Or Dorset.
Andy Holloway
No, I don't. I don't like either of those guys.
Jason Moore
Who do you like more? I'm saying you have to take one. I don't want to hit the button.
Andy Holloway
I would have won 100%. It would be Nelson Akin because of opportunity. What. Here's the thing historically speaking that the number that matters more than anything by a wide margin for wide receivers is targets. It's been proven year over year over year over year. Nelson Aguilar should have more targets next year than Philip Dorset just because of opportunity on the field.
Jason Moore
All right, let's talk about some of these.
Mike Wright
We're good.
Jason Moore
These Devin Funches, Ty Montgomery, Stefan Diggs, you glossed over Green Beckham, Tyler Lockett, Dorielle Green Beckham. Who do you want to talk about first?
Mike Wright
I think we start with Green Beckham.
Jason Moore
Okay.
Mike Wright
Green Beckham finished with a pretty lackluster rookie type year. I mean he was a second round guy. The physical skills, six, six man stature. That's what I mean. Physical stature is there. He's a bit raw.
Jason Moore
I need to adjust my 3D printer.
Mike Wright
He missed a. Missed a year of college and so he was, he was a little bit more raw coming in the what makes the key number for me here is snaps for Beckham. How much was he actually out there? How much experience was he getting as we move into next year where he will likely become the number one target as far as wide receivers goes for the titans. But weeks one through eight, only 33% of the snaps. The second half of the year, 75%. So Ken Wizen Hunt got. Gets fired and Green Beckham finally gets on the field which is. That's really not a surprise for Ken Wizen Hunt to be putting his rookies in the. In the doghouse. That's kind of his MO So Wizen Hunt sent, hit the bricks, get Green back him on the field, get him some experience. A lot of really bad games.
Jason Moore
I think I disagree with you about the number one target thing. I don't think he was remotely close. I would water bet that he's third or later.
Mike Wright
As far as I said wide receiver.
Andy Holloway
Yeah but. So Kendall Wright will probably be the most targeted receiver.
Mike Wright
I didn't say target. I said number one option. So if you wanted to relate that.
Jason Moore
Target.
Mike Wright
Did I say target?
Jason Moore
You said number one target.
Mike Wright
I meant as far as he's the number one wide receiver on the team. He's the alpha wide receiver.
Jason Moore
It's going to be and to me it's still right.
Mike Wright
I think it.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Mike Wright
I think it'll be back. I don't know.
Andy Holloway
I think it's going to be close because Kendall Wright, when healthy is a great option.
Mike Wright
He's an okay option.
Andy Holloway
But when it comes to red zones, which you know is going to matter for fantasy, Doyle Green Beckham is going to be the guy that's eating up all of the jump balls, all of the valuable plays. The fact that the second half of the season he had that opportunity, some of which came at the expense of Kendall Wright's injury. Right. Like that was what allowed him to get on the field. But his. So he was the number one recruit in the nation, I believe, when he was coming out of high school. Because the guy is physically a monster.
Mike Wright
I'm going to pull up his if.
Jason Moore
I never hear that again though.
Andy Holloway
What? Yeah.
Jason Moore
When you're, when your greatest attribute after all of college and your first year in the NFL is that you were the, the top recruit in high school, it's the times running out.
Andy Holloway
But, but he actually played a year. I would agree with that. In general, if he came out and stunk it up this year, I would have been, I would have been leading the charge for saying that. I feel like he had a very good second half of the year. Where you go, oh, okay. So that raw, raw, raw talent that we saw just a couple years ago in high school, I mean the guy's still.
Jason Moore
We skipped college not living up to potential in college and we only caught, we only caught 30 something balls in, in the NFL.
Mike Wright
He was good in college until he wasn't allowed to play for his off field activities.
Jason Moore
He was okay. He was okay.
Andy Holloway
So my point is simply he has the talent now the second half of the year he got the opportunity.
Jason Moore
So give me the comparison. Who do you think he's like next year?
Mike Wright
Let me pull up.
Andy Holloway
He's probably going to be one of the more touchdown heavy type of receivers, you know, I hope for. And I would never expect him to finish as high as. Yeah, Ted Ginn would be a good option. I was thinking. Yeah, I mean he's going to be that, I think number two in receptions, but probably lead the team. Fantasy points for his team.
Jason Moore
Two interceptions or three.
Andy Holloway
I'm saying wide receivers. So not, not including Delaney Walker.
Jason Moore
All right.
Andy Holloway
Just from, from the wide receivers. The second option, they'll probably be third on the team in receptions. So Ted Ginn would be, you know, the type of guy where he doesn't get a lot of. He doesn't get a lot of. I'm going to go receptions, but he gets the touchdown.
Mike Wright
I'm going with like James Jones, 890 and 8.
Andy Holloway
I think that's very doable for Green.
Jason Moore
The reality about Green Beckham is that this is the same type of divergence of thought that has always existed for him. When you come into the draft, when you're six six and you're built to play the position the way he has been and he's flashed those things at times, you're going to have people who fall on both sides that say, hey, he's going to take the leap and be, you know, kind of live up to that size and that potential. And then you have some people that are like, well, let's just wait and.
Mike Wright
See because here's the. What I've a point that I've been meaning to talk about on the show is the well, I want, I want to see it first type of thinking. This is a kind of a. Just an overall how I play fantasy football.
Andy Holloway
The.
Mike Wright
You can't wait and see. You have to be proactive. You have to make the move because by the time you see it, somebody else will have already made the move. So if you want to be off a guy that I don't have a problem with Andy not wanting, not being really in the Green Beckham camp, but by making him have this decision of, well, if I see it, you know, he'll be gone, you will, you will completely miss the boat on a player like that.
Jason Moore
Yeah. So I'm content with that.
Mike Wright
And that's what you have to be, you have to, to say, well, if I'm going to see it first you have to know you're probably not going to have that player that because somebody else is going to make the move in a projection based opportunity instead of, instead of waiting to see it happen.
Jason Moore
And it's not, it's not coloring my entire picture of this, but the offense makes a big difference to me. And you know, there were games, I played Green Beckham in a game last year.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
And the problem wasn't Green Beckham. Okay. The problem was two targets to wide receivers after halftime. Okay. We all agree they're going to put somebody in place that's better at the running back position this year. Mariota can still run the ball and he can score in the red zone. You've got Wright, you've got Walker. It's an opportunity thing that the offense wasn't that great. Plus where he falls in the target chain, I don't project him being great moving forward.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
That's just where I fall.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. And the Truth is all these guys, it's really about projection. The guys we just talked about, I would rather have DGB over because I think the potential is higher. The guy that I would rather have over Doyle Green Beckham though, who I think is a little bit of a sexier pick to me would be Devin Funches who I believe is the next guy on the list. Devin Funches, to me he started to show up later on in the year. He was brought in to be the two, not not the one type of role and with injury he was kind of forced into this weird place where he wasn't used as what they thought he was going to be and then they didn't like him. But at the end of the year he showed that he's good. He's on a high power offense. I think that you know he's going to find easier defense next year. And Ted Ginn Jr. I don't expect to repeat this year.
Mike Wright
What is the status, the contract status of Philly Brown, Corey Brown, I was just wondering if you knew off the top of your head. I would have to look it up because I'm just asking like because my liking of funches would. That'll have an effect on it.
Jason Moore
If Brown is gone, he has a three year contract.
Mike Wright
Okay. If Brown is back, I still like Funches a good bit moving into next year. But Kelvin Benjamin expected to be the one.
Jason Moore
Olson Gregory, I mean there's just Brown, you like that.
Mike Wright
It's a high powered offense but there are some serious target hogs there. So Funches, I would take Green Beckham over Funches.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I would as well. I don't think Funches, his opportunity is going to be there and I don't think he's got the skill set to be. I think it could be a guy that surprises people with the seven or eight touchdowns because of his size and involvement in the red zone. But I don't think you're going to get. I would say if he caught more than 45, 50 passes next year, I'd be shocked.
Andy Holloway
Very similar really in Doyle Green, Beckham, I think both are going to get touchdowns and not a ton of receptions.
Jason Moore
All right, so Tyler Lockett burst onto the scene. Really just an incredible special teams player and somebody who you saw take leaps in his wide receiver, both production and just performance on the field. Really impressive. 51, 664 and 6. What's the Tyler Lockett story for next year? Because he's one of those guys where I, I know that Doug Baldwin had the year that Doug Baldwin had. But I don't understand why it can't be Lockett on any given day. That's the thing about him.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I completely agree. I would say maybe it's just a biasy thing, but my opinion of Lockett really started to flip. There was a play with the Seahawks were playing against the Cardinals so I was getting to watch, you know, a ton of Locket and he just torched Peterson. I mean torched him and Patrick Peterson, if you weren't paying attention, was having a. Had a great season. He really turned his. His play around. But Lockett just burned by him and Peterson had no chance. And it was. And then the touchdowns start coming for Russell Wilson. The first nine games of the year, Russell Wilson threw 10 touchdowns. The final 7:24. What happened because the attempts really weren't up. He was just being far more efficient. So if you. This is a. The Seahawks are going to be a team that you are going to have to make an early decision on if you're going to buy into next year.
Jason Moore
Going into buying into the transition to a Russell Wilson pass first offense.
Mike Wright
Yes, we saw.
Jason Moore
And pass in the red zone offense.
Mike Wright
Exactly.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
You saw Baldwin getting a ton of the. Just, just a slant right on the from the two yard line. It will be very interesting because we expect lynch to be gone. Thomas Rawls coming off a fractured leg. You expect him to be the number one guy. But weird things happen in the Seahawks. Will. Will they make that complete transition to when they're running up the score? I mean Seahawks have never been a. Not never, but the last few years of the Pete Carroll years. They've not been a prolific offense putting up huge fantasy points. Russell Wilson was good for fantasy because he ran the ball and he was scoring a bunch of rushing touchdowns. He didn't have those rushing touchdowns this year and he didn't need them because the second half of the year he went nuclear with his touchdown passes.
Jason Moore
That's the story. And the question is it seems like that's the trajectory that Seahawks are going to take with their offense. You can still kind of make the kind of logical argument that they had the least success they've had in three years by doing so.
Mike Wright
Right.
Jason Moore
By not making super bowl well. And they were thrust into a position where they couldn't depend on the run the way they wanted to. Whether it was Lynch's injury, then Rawls injury, then all of a sudden you're running Kristen Michael and Bryce Brown out there. But that really wasn't why Wilson got involved. Wilson got involved early. What from week nine, right?
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
After.
Andy Holloway
I think they had a week nine buy and then. And then they came back. So were. And then he was on fire. Tyler Lockett, when you look at the targets between the first half of the year and the second half of the year, you can definitely see that his targets were up. He had a four game stretch in a row. Three, four of the last five games where he got seven targets. And so those are. That's what you want to see. He's getting more trust from Russell Wilson. I think Tyler Lockett takes a step up this next year and finishes better than he did this year, which was a pretty good year. So, I mean, I would rather have Tyler Lockett even still over a lot of these other guys. Talking about.
Mike Wright
I likely would too.
Jason Moore
I take Lockett at his draft value over Baldwin at his draft value. I will tell you that right now and I won't.
Andy Holloway
But I'm a Baldwin believer.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I would. I'm with Andy on that one. And another note, Curse, Jermaine.
Andy Holloway
Curse.
Mike Wright
This was a contract year. I don't expect him back with Seattle.
Andy Holloway
That'd be great.
Jason Moore
I would agree with you on that.
Mike Wright
So that's, that's why I like Lockett.
Andy Holloway
It's.
Jason Moore
Nor do you expect Jimmy Graham back ever.
Mike Wright
He'll be there in his body.
Jason Moore
Will be there collecting checks.
Mike Wright
Yeah, he'll be doing that.
Jason Moore
Not that I blame him. It's not, you know, you take the risk and sometimes that happens. It's not like he chose that injury, that's for sure.
Mike Wright
All right, this season I'd like a patella. I'd like a devastating knee injury, please. What's the, what's the cost of that?
Jason Moore
Right. A lot to Seattle. All right, so Ty Montgomery, Stefan Diggs, guys, be brief about these, these two. There are other rookies as well. The J.J. nelson's of the world and other, other players that we're not getting into on this show. But they will not, they will not lack discussion for the offseason. Trust me on that. We'll be doing a early bird mock draft earlier than you think.
Mike Wright
We got to do one soon.
Jason Moore
We are, we're going.
Mike Wright
People have spoken.
Jason Moore
So these player names will come up. But guys, give me, give me a couple seconds on these guys and then we'll get into the mailbag and we'll hit the tight ends and the running backs on Thursday.
Andy Holloway
Ty Montgomery barely played this year. Showed that he was an electric weapon but could not be healthy. Caught nearly everything thrown his way, but that was pretty much about two feet Away from Aaron Rodgers and by a.
Jason Moore
Couple seconds, I mean. I'm going to throw you another question. Ty Montgomery showed a lot to me on the field when he was there and limited work. Randall Cobb showed me a very little. Show me that there are some concerns there. Got paid, didn't perform to the level that I expect. Maybe Cobb comes back and he's fine. That catch was incredible. At the end of the year, I don't know why we didn't see more of that Randall Cobb, but does Montgomery have a cracked door because of Cobb's performances?
Andy Holloway
Nope.
Jason Moore
All right, Mike, tell me about Stephen Diggs.
Mike Wright
So Stephan Diggs.
Jason Moore
You looked up some interesting numbers on him.
Mike Wright
Here's the question for Stefan Diggs. What happened?
Andy Holloway
What happened?
Mike Wright
What happened?
Andy Holloway
So great.
Jason Moore
What's going on?
Mike Wright
Because his first four games, 40 targets. And this was when he was the waiver wire beast. It was. He was on. You stay in the flames with Diggs. And he was tearing. He was winning weeks. Tearing it up. 40 targets for the first four games, the final nine games of his season, 44 targets. What happened?
Jason Moore
Extra attention.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. That's what my question was gonna be was.
Jason Moore
So lack of separation for extra attention.
Mike Wright
He became the one, and teams treated him as such.
Jason Moore
And Mike Wallace was standing over there on the sidelines going, hey, I'm the one. I'm the one.
Mike Wright
We're, like, in his, like, mink coat, so can you trust me so much on that, Minky?
Andy Holloway
Mike, does Diggs take a step up this next year and show. I mean, he was just amazing on the field at grabbing the balls that came to him.
Jason Moore
You say no, I say no. Not what? Not what I would define a step up as. I would say he obviously isn't going to just play 13 games barring injury, so his numbers will improve, but I don't think proportionally they'll be much different.
Andy Holloway
Well, you say no, and I say no. I agree.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Unless there's some upgrade to the other side of the field with where Wallace is. Then. Then no.
Jason Moore
All right, let's go ahead and get into the mailbag. Maybe. I hate that. The thing. Hold on.
Andy Holloway
Mailbag.
Jason Moore
Sometimes I. I tell my soundboard to freeze in order to build anticipation. Ooh, Drama for your.
Mike Wright
We know. Drama.
Jason Moore
Yes. Andrew in Philadelphia. He says he's thinking about his keeper selections already for next year.
Mike Wright
We all are, Andrew.
Jason Moore
Definitely keeping Le'Veon Bell and Julio Jones, but he has to pick a third between DAV Johnson and Thomas Rawls.
Andy Holloway
So many of these questions.
Jason Moore
I know a lot can change between now and next season. But how much of DJ success do you think came from him having fresher legs than everyone else towards the end of the season? Like Hill and Anderson last year. What are your end of season feelings on dj If Chris Johnson leaves or. I'm sorry. Yeah. Or Rawls if Lynch leaves.
Andy Holloway
If. If both of them are set up as the one. I have to go with David Johnson because of the offense. I believe the Arizona Cardinals will be putting more points on the board. Also, if you look pre draft right at just talent if both guys have the opportunity. David Johnson was a physical freak and Thomas Rawls went undrafted.
Jason Moore
Thomas Rawls averaged 5.6 a carry.
Andy Holloway
That is correct.
Jason Moore
Thomas Rawls is the guy I would choose in standard leagues if all things were equal. And I would probably choose DJ in half point and full point. I like as of today. As of today.
Mike Wright
I like that take. It will be very hard for me to pass David Johnson though.
Jason Moore
Yep. Matt in Athens, Ohio. Hey guys, love the show. I thought I'd share something that I tried this year and I think it worked out pretty well for me. So this is our reaction to that.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Jason Moore
He went for upper tier tight ends in all three of his leagues and made it to the championship in all three leagues. He previously valued them much lower with very little success. Is there something to be said for having a guy like Greg Olson? Rule 86 in Barnage. I wanted to know what your thoughts were on having a big time tight end. It's what I have to say this. You named three guys and two of them weren't big time tight ends.
Andy Holloway
That's what I was going to say. It's. It's so valuable to have a big name tight end, but you just don't know that you're going to get them when you, when you draft them. You, you know, you, you draft high and you get Travis Kelsey because you think he's going to finish there and he doesn't. So that's where Greg Olson.
Jason Moore
Sure.
Andy Holloway
I mean he's very consistent. Gronk, he costs probably too much. But yeah, ruling you didn't have to pay.
Jason Moore
You said you went for upper tier tight ends but those two you didn't have to pay for. So I don't know if that means you drafted Greg Olson in all three leagues and you're just wanting us to consider these guys going into next year. In that case, let's just say is it worth the cost if you know you can get it?
Andy Holloway
I love if I can get someone that I know is going to be a Or I'm very sure is going to be a separator at that position. I love grabbing them in the fourth or fifth round.
Jason Moore
I also think in smaller leagues it's even more important.
Mike Wright
Yeah, yeah. In smaller leagues, like a 10 team or so, you got to have an advantage there.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I agree with you. So listen, if you have a question for the show, it's very easy. Go to the Fantasy footballers dot com, click the Submit a question button, send it into the show. We try to answer those on almost every episode. A lot of times during the offseason we do some bonus episodes, mailbag episodes, and so we want to answer those. It's never too early. It's February 1st, guys.
Mike Wright
That means practically preseason, no free agent season a month.
Jason Moore
It's true. And this news, I mean, then it'll be the draft. Look, we've already got this Calvin Johnson, you know, story that's coming out of, out of his camp that, you know, changes the equation for guys like Golden Tate, for Matt Stafford, somebody who I believe on this show we said we really like Matt Stafford next year.
Mike Wright
Unless Calvin Johnson's gone Golden Tate Dynasty owners, when they rejoice when they heard that news, what were they doing?
Jason Moore
Well, it's just, it's always weeping. I, you know who else is weeping, honestly, is if you're a Detroit Lions fan, you're not. It's not a good thing to lose Calvin Johnson. You know, he's not old, right? He's 30. Okay. He's a 30 year old Barry Sanders and that's doing it again. The tragedy there is that you have the same franchise dealing with that type of a problem.
Andy Holloway
So why do they want to retire so quick?
Jason Moore
Detroit. Every year in. Detroit's like two.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
And other, other franchises, I think. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Detroit. So anyways, we'll be back on Thursday. We'll be talking the other positions, the rookies, breaking them down, projecting them forward. We'll have a lot of other good stuff, but not the Pebbles.
Mike Wright
Goodbye.
Andy Holloway
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot. And follow us on Twitter the FFballers.
Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Rookie Rundown QB & WR, News, Mailbag
Release Date: February 2, 2016
Andrew Luck's Decline (02:07 - 05:04)
The hosts express significant concern over Andrew Luck's performance. Jason Moore criticizes Luck's season, stating,
“when he played in seven games and he threw 12 interceptions and he had a completion percentage that dropped six and a half percent to 55%, I should be a little concerned.” (02:07). Despite Luck being a highly regarded quarterback, his struggles—particularly his interception rate and decreased completion percentage—raise doubts about his consistency and reliability for fantasy purposes.
Ryan Tannehill's Underperformance (05:04 - 07:27)
Ryan Tannehill is highlighted as another quarterback with disappointing metrics. Andy Holloway shares a crucial stat,
“Ryan Tannehill was 21st. Only through for 7.1 yards per attempt.” (04:23), indicating a lackluster performance that fails to meet expectations. The discussion underscores Tannehill's inability to significantly improve his yards per attempt, contributing to uncertainty about his future prospects in fantasy leagues.
Matt Ryan's Consistent Disappointment (07:27 - 08:50)
Matt Ryan is singled out for his underwhelming season. Mike Wright notes,
“Matt Ryan had a good game here and there but for the most part he was just very disappointing.” (06:33), emphasizing his inconsistency despite having strong elements like Julio Jones and a promising offensive scheme. This persistent disappointment positions Ryan as a potential late-round value rather than a reliable starter.
Fan Feedback (09:00 - 10:00)
The hosts read a review from listener Kid Beyond, praising the podcast for its in-depth postseason analysis and its impact on his fantasy success:
“Thanks to the fantasy footballers and their mighty Foot clan, I finished first place in one league and third in my second league.” (09:27). This testimonial highlights the podcast's value in providing actionable insights and fostering a dedicated fantasy football community.
Calvin Johnson's Potential Retirement (11:03 - 12:32)
A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to discussing Calvin "Megatron" Johnson's rumored retirement. Mike Wright explains,
“He put notice into the team. He said, it's official. I am retiring.” (11:36), exploring the implications for the Detroit Lions and fantasy managers alike. The conversation speculates on potential replacements, such as Marvin Jones, and the strategic shifts the Lions might undertake in response to Johnson's departure.
Other NFL Updates (12:32 - 18:00)
The hosts touch on various NFL news, including tight end Scott Chandler's potential move to the Jets and the free agency landscape for running backs. Mike Wright mentions,
“Alfred Morris maybe lands in New York.” (15:18), while discussing the Jets' cap space issues and possible solutions. Additionally, Travis Kelsey's new reality show and contract details are discussed, highlighting his rising profile both on and off the field.
Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota (18:00 - 26:00)
The discussion centers on the rookie quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, evaluating their first-year performances and future projections.
Jameis Winston: Jason Moore praises Winston's turnaround, noting,
“Jameis Winston finished with over 4,000 yards. Great. I mean, that is, that is historically great numbers for a quarterback.” (20:00). Despite a rocky start, Winston's late-season improvement positions him as a potential QB1 for the upcoming season.
Marcus Mariota: In contrast, Marcus Mariota's limited games (12) are analyzed, with Moore stating,
“He had a better quarterback rating. He had a better completion percentage. It’s hard to choose between those guys because I like Mike Evans a whole lot more than I like the weapon.” (23:10). The hosts acknowledge Mariota's triple-threat capabilities but remain cautious about his consistency.
Consensus and Projections:
The hosts lean towards Winston becoming a QB1, with Andy Holloway predicting similar fantasy numbers for both quarterbacks next year but favoring Winston due to his offensive framework.
“I think Winston is a quarterback one next year.” (22:52). The unanimous agreement among the hosts supports Winston's higher draft value over Mariota.
Amari Cooper (26:00 - 31:18)
Amari Cooper receives high praise for his rookie season despite limited playtime. Andy Holloway highlights his ability to generate yards after contact, stating,
“He led the entire league as far as rookies and yards after contact.” (30:19). The consensus is that Cooper will see improved performance next season, making him a top fantasy wide receiver.
Kevin White and Rashad Perriman (31:18 - 35:55)
Kevin White is considered a hot take, with Andy Holloway expecting him to double his production similar to Tyler Lockett, though Jason Moore and Mike Wright express some skepticism about his immediate impact.
“I expect him to, other than be able to suit up, tying his shoes with both of these, putting on the helmet... there's so little to be able to bank on you.” (32:04).
Rashad Perriman is viewed more favorably due to his opportunity with the Ravens, though concerns about Joe Flacco's recovery remain.
“Perriman will have the opportunity, which is even more important than talent.” (35:55).
Devonte Parker and Nelson Aguilar (35:55 - 43:14)
Devonte Parker is seen as a promising breakout candidate with physical attributes comparable to Demaryius Thomas, despite limited playtime last season.
“He could end up becoming a wide receiver one for the team and have huge blow-up potential.” (38:33).
Nelson Aguilar, however, garners mixed reviews. While Andy Holloway appreciates his production within limited targets, Mike Wright draws comparisons to Marvin Jones, suggesting potential for growth.
“He's more like a Marvin Jones to me.” (44:53).
Philip Dorsett and Others (43:14 - 58:00)
Philip Dorsett is labeled a wild card, with comparisons to John Brown's rookie season. The uncertainty around his role in the Colts' offense makes him a speculative pick.
“He's a massively talented guy and he could thrive, he could explode.” (49:18).
Other receivers like Tyler Lockett receive commendations for their special teams performance and potential offensive role expansion.
“Tyler Lockett takes a step up this next year and finishes better than he did this year.” (53:50).
Keeper Selections and Running Backs (58:00 - 70:00)
Listener Matt from Athens, Ohio, shares his successful strategy of prioritizing tight ends, leading to championship wins in his leagues. The hosts discuss the value of securing reliable tight ends like David Johnson over more risky options like Thomas Rawls.
“If both guys have the opportunity, David Johnson was a physical freak and Thomas Rawls went undrafted.” (66:51).
Mike Wright emphasizes the importance of proactive drafting, arguing against the “wait and see” approach:
“You can't wait and see. You have to be proactive.” (54:57).
Tight End Strategies:
The conversation shifts to the significance of drafting upper-tier tight ends early. Andy Holloway encourages securing consistent performers, especially in smaller leagues where positional advantages are crucial.
“I love grabbing them in the fourth or fifth round.” (68:30).
The hosts wrap up by encouraging listeners to submit questions for future episodes and hint at upcoming discussions on tight ends and running backs. They reiterate the podcast's focus on actionable fantasy football insights and community engagement.
Notable Quotes:
“when he played in seven games and he threw 12 interceptions and he had a completion percentage that dropped six and a half percent to 55%, I should be a little concerned.” – Jason Moore (02:07)
“Ryan Tannehill was 21st. Only through for 7.1 yards per attempt.” – Andy Holloway (04:23)
“Amari Cooper will be the number one fantasy.” – Andy Holloway (31:44)
“You can't wait and see. You have to be proactive.” – Mike Wright (54:57)
“I was in love with Latavius Murray for next year.” – Andy Holloway (27:27)
This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of last season's underperforming players, in-depth rookie evaluations, and valuable NFL updates. The hosts offer actionable projections and strategic advice, making it an essential listen for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to optimize their upcoming drafts and in-season management.