Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The Overreaction Episode with Special Guest Chris Harris

Release Date: February 16, 2016
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Special Guest: Christopher Harris of the Harris Football Podcast

Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright delve into the perennial Fantasy Football theme: Overreactions in Player Draft Positions. Titled "The Overreaction Episode," the trio examines players whose draft values may be inflated or deflated due to recent performances, media hype, or other influencing factors. Joining them is Christopher Harris, a seasoned analyst from the Harris Football Podcast, who provides additional insights and picks.

News and Notes (07:13 - 13:43)

The episode kicks off with a roundup of significant NFL news impacting Fantasy Football decisions:

• C.J. Spiller's Status with the Saints: ESPN Saints reporter Mike Triplett anticipates that the Saints will retain C.J. Spiller at least into training camp, despite underlying tensions within the organization. Andy Holloway quips, “...whatever has happened behind the scenes to create hatred for C.J. spiller among the Saints organization, they're like, oh, we're not releasing him when he could sign to another team. I'm keeping them buried.”

• Andrew Luck's Contract Extension: Reports indicate that Andrew Luck's contract extension will be surprisingly modest. Mike Wright remarks on the trend of unexpected quarterback contracts, “Have you guys seen a quarterback contract lately that did not shock you one way or the other?”

• RG3's Exit Physical: Robert Griffin III has passed his exit physical, making him eligible to be cut by the Bears. Mike Wright summarizes, “He will be cut and he will be moving on and maybe gets an opportunity to start. I would guess that he's going to end up as a backup.”

• Matt Forte's Future in Chicago: Forte has expressed satisfaction with his tenure at the Bears, but the emergence of Jeremy Langford signals a potential shift in the Bears' backfield dynamics. Jason Moore highlights, “Langford now seems to be the heir apparent in Chicago.”

Overreaction Segment (16:47 - 44:36)

The heart of the episode revolves around the Overreaction Segment, where each host identifies and analyzes three players they believe are drafted too high or too low based on current evaluations.

Mike Wright’s Overreaction Picks

1. Tyler Ifert - Tight End (18:18 - 20:54)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to an exceptional breakout year.
   • Analysis: Mike points out Ifert’s dependency on touchdowns, noting, “he was averaging in standard leagues three and a half points a game” outside of his two high-scoring games. He warns, “he has the room to improve, but if he doesn't score, he's going to suck.”
   • Notable Quote:
     [18:21] Mike Wright: “he is going, I believe as the third tight end right now because he's young, had a monster breakout year.”

2. Philip Rivers - Quarterback (32:17 - 36:25)

   • Issue: Overvalued after a decline in performance due to Keenan Allen’s injury.
   • Analysis: Rivers’ fantasy output plummeted when Allen was sidelined, dropping “eight points a game” and “almost 100 yards less per game.” Mike suggests Rivers should be a late-round target, anticipating growth and a return to form.
   • Notable Quote:
     [32:35] Mike Wright: “Without Keenan Allen, his fantasy points went down about eight points a game.”

3. Larry Fitzgerald - Wide Receiver (39:45 - 41:39)

   • Issue: Overvalued with inconsistent performance and reliance on red-zone touchdowns.
   • Analysis: Despite a strong start, Fitzgerald’s production tapered off, and Mike argues that for a fifth-round pick seeking steady value, Fitzgerald may not be the optimal choice.
   • Notable Quote:
     [40:20] Jason Moore: “the global offense is going to wind up being.”

Andy Holloway’s Overreaction Picks

1. Eddie Lacy - Running Back (21:11 - 25:19)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to offseason weight gain affecting performance.
   • Analysis: Andy contends that Lacy’s reduced workload wasn’t solely due to poor performance but also due to concerns about his weight. With the Packers expecting him to shed pounds and bounce back, drafting him in the third round may be premature.
   • Notable Quote:
     [21:48] Andy Holloway: “it wasn't just because he played bad. It wasn't because he played bad. It was because he got five or less carries.”

2. Tom Brady - Quarterback (36:06 - 38:46)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to his storied career overshadowing current performance.
   • Analysis: Despite being one of the greatest quarterbacks, Andy argues that drafting Brady in the third round is excessive. He prefers allocating earlier rounds to running backs or wide receivers, positioning Brady as a late-round grab or streaming option.
   • Notable Quote:
     [36:25] Jason Moore: “We know the fantasy numbers of everybody else trickled down in the splits between those two.”

3. Jordan Matthews - Wide Receiver (42:06 - 44:36)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to initial underperformance and subsequent regression.
   • Analysis: Following a rough start, Matthews showed improvement. However, Andy believes his draft position as a seventh-round pick doesn’t fully reflect his potential rebound, making him an undervalued asset rather than overvalued.
   • Notable Quote:
     [42:40] Andy Holloway: “There is no way, barring injury, that he doesn't return on a seventh round draft pick. Value.”

Jason Moore’s Overreaction Picks

1. Blake Bortles - Quarterback (26:08 - 31:00)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to regressions in touchdowns and efficiency.
   • Analysis: Blake’s propensity for interceptions and fumbles, combined with a potential decline in passing touchdowns, makes him ripe for regression. Jason advocates for avoiding him in favor of more consistent quarterbacks.
   • Notable Quote:
     [27:02] Jason Moore: “He is mistake prone. He is growing and I am by no means saying he's not going to become a great fantasy quarterback.”

2. Allen Robinson - Wide Receiver (28:47 - 31:13)

   • Issue: Overvalued for being drafted too high based on past performance.
   • Analysis: Despite his breakout year with 16 touchdowns, Jason cautions against drafting Robinson early, suggesting that his explosive performance might not sustain and could lead to diminished returns.
   • Notable Quote:
     [29:14] Andy Holloway: “He's going ahead of guys like where's the decision? Bryant Alshon, Jeffrey Demarys Thomas.”

Guest Segment: Christopher Harris (45:01 - 59:42)

Christopher Harris joins the hosts to share his perspectives on overreaction picks, contributing three of his own candidates:

1. Devontae Freeman - Running Back (45:38 - 50:20)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to injury concerns and potential underutilization.
   • Analysis: Chris draws parallels between Freeman and Justin Forsett, emphasizing Freeman's dependency on offensive roles that may not be sustainable. He predicts that teams needing a power back might overvalue Freeman prematurely.
   • Notable Quote:
     [46:12] Christopher Harris: “...what would it take for Devontae Freeman for Doug Baldwin to be dominators?”

2. Melvin Gordon - Running Back (50:36 - 53:40)

   • Issue: Undervalued despite solid performance hindered by poor offensive lines.
   • Analysis: Harris argues that Gordon’s ability to perform isn't solely dependent on the Chargers' offensive line and that changes could unlock his potential. He counters common criticisms regarding Gordon's yards per carry and fumble rate, advocating for his undervalued status.
   • Notable Quote:
     [51:12] Christopher Harris: “...if the Chargers offensive line is bad again, this is going to be a bad call and it's been met for years.”

3. Doug Baldwin - Wide Receiver (53:40 - 56:58)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to inconsistent red-zone targets and reliance on game scripts.
   • Analysis: While Baldwin demonstrated high touchdown numbers, Chris argues that his red-zone efficiency is unpredictable and his role is too situational to warrant high draft positions. He suggests drafting Baldwin in later rounds due to these uncertainties.
   • Notable Quote:
     [55:35] Christopher Harris: “...that's a sucker bet.”

Harris contends that while these players possess undeniable talent, external factors such as team dynamics, coaching strategies, and injury histories lead to their over or undervaluation in drafts.

Conclusion (59:42 - End)

As the episode wraps up, the hosts emphasize the importance of recognizing and navigating Overreactions during drafts to maximize Fantasy Football success. They encourage listeners to monitor Average Draft Positions (ADPs) and remain flexible in their strategies, ensuring they capitalize on value rather than hype.

Jason Moore sums it up:
[60:19] Jason Moore: “I think these are good people to have in your brain early on in the offseason. Watch their ADPs.”

Andy Holloway and Mike Wright echo the sentiment, highlighting the necessity of staying informed and adaptable throughout the Fantasy Football season.

Key Takeaways

• Overreactions can significantly impact player draft positions, either inflating or deflating their value.
• Andy, Jason, and Mike provide a comprehensive analysis of various players, cautioning against drafting based solely on past performance or media hype.
• Christopher Harris enriches the discussion with his expert picks, reinforcing the episode's central theme.
• Strategic Drafting: Emphasizes the importance of understanding player dynamics, team situations, and statistical trends to make informed drafting decisions.

Notable Quotes

• [21:48] Andy Holloway: “it wasn't just because he played bad. It wasn't because he played bad. It was because he got five or less carries.”
• [28:47] Andy Holloway: “He's, he is going at the back end of the first round. I'm not taking Allen Robinson there.”
• [45:50] Mike Wright: “Is he still on the Bears?”
• [50:36] Christopher Harris: “He is very useful in the passing game. He's very useful in space.”
• [53:40] Mike Wright: “That Doug Baldwin. We've seen who he is for years. He's not the guy that he looked like the last half of last year.”

Final Thoughts

This episode serves as a crucial guide for Fantasy Football enthusiasts aiming to navigate the tumultuous waters of player evaluations and draft strategies. By identifying potential overreactions, the Fantasy Footballers and Christopher Harris equip listeners with the tools to make smarter, value-driven decisions that can lead to championship victories.

Follow the Fantasy Footballers:

• Website: fantasyfootballers.com
• Twitter: @theFFballers
• Instagram: @theFFballers
• YouTube: Exclusive content available post-episode.

Connect with Christopher Harris:

• Twitter: @HarrisFootball
• Podcast: Harris Football Podcast

Thank you for tuning into the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Stay informed, draft wisely, and may your team win the league!