Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The Overreaction Episode w/Special Guest Chris Harris

Summary

Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The Overreaction Episode with Special Guest Chris Harris

Release Date: February 16, 2016
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Special Guest: Christopher Harris of the Harris Football Podcast

---

Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright delve into the perennial Fantasy Football theme: Overreactions in Player Draft Positions. Titled "The Overreaction Episode," the trio examines players whose draft values may be inflated or deflated due to recent performances, media hype, or other influencing factors. Joining them is Christopher Harris, a seasoned analyst from the Harris Football Podcast, who provides additional insights and picks.

---

News and Notes (07:13 - 13:43)

The episode kicks off with a roundup of significant NFL news impacting Fantasy Football decisions:

• C.J. Spiller's Status with the Saints: ESPN Saints reporter Mike Triplett anticipates that the Saints will retain C.J. Spiller at least into training camp, despite underlying tensions within the organization. Andy Holloway quips, “...whatever has happened behind the scenes to create hatred for C.J. spiller among the Saints organization, they're like, oh, we're not releasing him when he could sign to another team. I'm keeping them buried.”

• Andrew Luck's Contract Extension: Reports indicate that Andrew Luck's contract extension will be surprisingly modest. Mike Wright remarks on the trend of unexpected quarterback contracts, “Have you guys seen a quarterback contract lately that did not shock you one way or the other?”

• RG3's Exit Physical: Robert Griffin III has passed his exit physical, making him eligible to be cut by the Bears. Mike Wright summarizes, “He will be cut and he will be moving on and maybe gets an opportunity to start. I would guess that he's going to end up as a backup.”

• Matt Forte's Future in Chicago: Forte has expressed satisfaction with his tenure at the Bears, but the emergence of Jeremy Langford signals a potential shift in the Bears' backfield dynamics. Jason Moore highlights, “Langford now seems to be the heir apparent in Chicago.”

---

Overreaction Segment (16:47 - 44:36)

The heart of the episode revolves around the Overreaction Segment, where each host identifies and analyzes three players they believe are drafted too high or too low based on current evaluations.

Mike Wright’s Overreaction Picks

1. Tyler Ifert - Tight End (18:18 - 20:54)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to an exceptional breakout year.
   • Analysis: Mike points out Ifert’s dependency on touchdowns, noting, “he was averaging in standard leagues three and a half points a game” outside of his two high-scoring games. He warns, “he has the room to improve, but if he doesn't score, he's going to suck.”
   • Notable Quote:
     [18:21] Mike Wright: “he is going, I believe as the third tight end right now because he's young, had a monster breakout year.”

2. Philip Rivers - Quarterback (32:17 - 36:25)

   • Issue: Overvalued after a decline in performance due to Keenan Allen’s injury.
   • Analysis: Rivers’ fantasy output plummeted when Allen was sidelined, dropping “eight points a game” and “almost 100 yards less per game.” Mike suggests Rivers should be a late-round target, anticipating growth and a return to form.
   • Notable Quote:
     [32:35] Mike Wright: “Without Keenan Allen, his fantasy points went down about eight points a game.”

3. Larry Fitzgerald - Wide Receiver (39:45 - 41:39)

   • Issue: Overvalued with inconsistent performance and reliance on red-zone touchdowns.
   • Analysis: Despite a strong start, Fitzgerald’s production tapered off, and Mike argues that for a fifth-round pick seeking steady value, Fitzgerald may not be the optimal choice.
   • Notable Quote:
     [40:20] Jason Moore: “the global offense is going to wind up being.”

Andy Holloway’s Overreaction Picks

1. Eddie Lacy - Running Back (21:11 - 25:19)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to offseason weight gain affecting performance.
   • Analysis: Andy contends that Lacy’s reduced workload wasn’t solely due to poor performance but also due to concerns about his weight. With the Packers expecting him to shed pounds and bounce back, drafting him in the third round may be premature.
   • Notable Quote:
     [21:48] Andy Holloway: “it wasn't just because he played bad. It wasn't because he played bad. It was because he got five or less carries.”

2. Tom Brady - Quarterback (36:06 - 38:46)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to his storied career overshadowing current performance.
   • Analysis: Despite being one of the greatest quarterbacks, Andy argues that drafting Brady in the third round is excessive. He prefers allocating earlier rounds to running backs or wide receivers, positioning Brady as a late-round grab or streaming option.
   • Notable Quote:
     [36:25] Jason Moore: “We know the fantasy numbers of everybody else trickled down in the splits between those two.”

3. Jordan Matthews - Wide Receiver (42:06 - 44:36)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to initial underperformance and subsequent regression.
   • Analysis: Following a rough start, Matthews showed improvement. However, Andy believes his draft position as a seventh-round pick doesn’t fully reflect his potential rebound, making him an undervalued asset rather than overvalued.
   • Notable Quote:
     [42:40] Andy Holloway: “There is no way, barring injury, that he doesn't return on a seventh round draft pick. Value.”

Jason Moore’s Overreaction Picks

1. Blake Bortles - Quarterback (26:08 - 31:00)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to regressions in touchdowns and efficiency.
   • Analysis: Blake’s propensity for interceptions and fumbles, combined with a potential decline in passing touchdowns, makes him ripe for regression. Jason advocates for avoiding him in favor of more consistent quarterbacks.
   • Notable Quote:
     [27:02] Jason Moore: “He is mistake prone. He is growing and I am by no means saying he's not going to become a great fantasy quarterback.”

2. Allen Robinson - Wide Receiver (28:47 - 31:13)

   • Issue: Overvalued for being drafted too high based on past performance.
   • Analysis: Despite his breakout year with 16 touchdowns, Jason cautions against drafting Robinson early, suggesting that his explosive performance might not sustain and could lead to diminished returns.
   • Notable Quote:
     [29:14] Andy Holloway: “He's going ahead of guys like where's the decision? Bryant Alshon, Jeffrey Demarys Thomas.”

---

Guest Segment: Christopher Harris (45:01 - 59:42)

Christopher Harris joins the hosts to share his perspectives on overreaction picks, contributing three of his own candidates:

1. Devontae Freeman - Running Back (45:38 - 50:20)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to injury concerns and potential underutilization.
   • Analysis: Chris draws parallels between Freeman and Justin Forsett, emphasizing Freeman's dependency on offensive roles that may not be sustainable. He predicts that teams needing a power back might overvalue Freeman prematurely.
   • Notable Quote:
     [46:12] Christopher Harris: “...what would it take for Devontae Freeman for Doug Baldwin to be dominators?”

2. Melvin Gordon - Running Back (50:36 - 53:40)

   • Issue: Undervalued despite solid performance hindered by poor offensive lines.
   • Analysis: Harris argues that Gordon’s ability to perform isn't solely dependent on the Chargers' offensive line and that changes could unlock his potential. He counters common criticisms regarding Gordon's yards per carry and fumble rate, advocating for his undervalued status.
   • Notable Quote:
     [51:12] Christopher Harris: “...if the Chargers offensive line is bad again, this is going to be a bad call and it's been met for years.”

3. Doug Baldwin - Wide Receiver (53:40 - 56:58)

   • Issue: Overvalued due to inconsistent red-zone targets and reliance on game scripts.
   • Analysis: While Baldwin demonstrated high touchdown numbers, Chris argues that his red-zone efficiency is unpredictable and his role is too situational to warrant high draft positions. He suggests drafting Baldwin in later rounds due to these uncertainties.
   • Notable Quote:
     [55:35] Christopher Harris: “...that's a sucker bet.”

Harris contends that while these players possess undeniable talent, external factors such as team dynamics, coaching strategies, and injury histories lead to their over or undervaluation in drafts.

---

Conclusion (59:42 - End)

As the episode wraps up, the hosts emphasize the importance of recognizing and navigating Overreactions during drafts to maximize Fantasy Football success. They encourage listeners to monitor Average Draft Positions (ADPs) and remain flexible in their strategies, ensuring they capitalize on value rather than hype.

Jason Moore sums it up:
[60:19] Jason Moore: “I think these are good people to have in your brain early on in the offseason. Watch their ADPs.”

Andy Holloway and Mike Wright echo the sentiment, highlighting the necessity of staying informed and adaptable throughout the Fantasy Football season.

---

Key Takeaways

• Overreactions can significantly impact player draft positions, either inflating or deflating their value.
• Andy, Jason, and Mike provide a comprehensive analysis of various players, cautioning against drafting based solely on past performance or media hype.
• Christopher Harris enriches the discussion with his expert picks, reinforcing the episode's central theme.
• Strategic Drafting: Emphasizes the importance of understanding player dynamics, team situations, and statistical trends to make informed drafting decisions.

---

Notable Quotes

• [21:48] Andy Holloway: “it wasn't just because he played bad. It wasn't because he played bad. It was because he got five or less carries.”
• [28:47] Andy Holloway: “He's, he is going at the back end of the first round. I'm not taking Allen Robinson there.”
• [45:50] Mike Wright: “Is he still on the Bears?”
• [50:36] Christopher Harris: “He is very useful in the passing game. He's very useful in space.”
• [53:40] Mike Wright: “That Doug Baldwin. We've seen who he is for years. He's not the guy that he looked like the last half of last year.”

---

Final Thoughts

This episode serves as a crucial guide for Fantasy Football enthusiasts aiming to navigate the tumultuous waters of player evaluations and draft strategies. By identifying potential overreactions, the Fantasy Footballers and Christopher Harris equip listeners with the tools to make smarter, value-driven decisions that can lead to championship victories.

---

Follow the Fantasy Footballers:

• Website: fantasyfootballers.com
• Twitter: @theFFballers
• Instagram: @theFFballers
• YouTube: Exclusive content available post-episode.

Connect with Christopher Harris:

• Twitter: @HarrisFootball
• Podcast: Harris Football Podcast

---

Thank you for tuning into the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Stay informed, draft wisely, and may your team win the league!

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foreign to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in to the show. Welcome into the studio. Welcome. Good morning, good afternoon, good night, good morning, good morning. Happy Saturday, Sunday, Monday, whenever you're listening.

[Andy Holloway]

We're a week away.

[Jason Moore]

Mowing your lawn, sailing away.

[Mike Wright]

I hope they're not waiting till Saturday.

[Jason Moore]

What? You know, it doesn't matter.

[Andy Holloway]

We're back.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's true.

[Jason Moore]

We're on demand. Yeah, my man.

[Andy Holloway]

Catch us anytime. No, we are one. One week away from the NFL combine.

[Jason Moore]

Seriously, football's back.

[Andy Holloway]

We, Football is here.

[Jason Moore]

That is Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway, joined by Mike the Fantasy Hitman. Right.

[Mike Wright]

We had a good week off.

[Jason Moore]

We're back. It's kind of true.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, it is true.

[Jason Moore]

One week saw Von Miller on snl.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that was fabulous.

[Andy Holloway]

Once again proving not everyone could do comedy.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I agree with you.

[Andy Holloway]

I like see him on there, but it's like not for the delivery.

[Mike Wright]

The delivery could have been stronger, but the, the meat, like the writing of what he had done was very funny.

[Jason Moore]

Brief aside, did you see Kristen Wiig on Fallon? Oh, as Peyton Manning?

[Mike Wright]

Every time. Every time Kristen Wiig goes on Fallon, she's a celebrity and, like, clearly knows very lit or pretends at least that she knows little about them and it always ends up hilarious.

[Jason Moore]

It was very, very funny. And then he made her throw the football, so. All right, hey, listen, we've got an amazing show today. I'm looking forward to this. We're calling this the overreaction episode because every year you have players that either do something at the end of the year or have a bad year or have an amazing year statistically, then the pendulum swings all the way to the other side and it affects their draft position. And so we wanted to break down. We've each selected three guys that we think people will overreact to, either positively or negatively. We're going to break them down on the show today. We've also got three more names coming your way from Bonus. Bonus, yes, from a friend of the show. Christopher Harris of the Harris Football Podcast will be joining us and he will break down some names as well. And so I'm excited about that. Got some news we're going to let you know about as well. And then on Thursday, just so you're aware, we have a mailbag episode.

[Andy Holloway]

Get those questions in, people.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I was going to say. So if you have a question for the show, this would be the time to submit it on the website, the fantasy footballers.com. click the submit a question button. Send those in because we're going to be answering them on the air on Thursday. We are on twitter @the ffballers. We are on [e-mail] our fantasy football community on Facebook. We're on Instagram and never so socially.

[Andy Holloway]

Never forget YouTube. The show after the show. Our exclusive content on YouTube that is blowing up.

[Mike Wright]

It's taking, it's taking the media really, really fun.

[Jason Moore]

So yeah, we leave the cameras running for an extra 5, 10 minutes after the show. Talk about whatever. And you can only get that on YouTube. So go subscribe to the channel. We are here year round. I noticed that most, if not all the other podcasts have now gone into hibernation or vacation. Which, you know, we probably sounds nice. We probably should have done.

[Andy Holloway]

We've, we've made a terrible mistake here.

[Jason Moore]

I did, I did, I did think about that a little bit. I was like, boy, a break would be nice right now. No, football never ends. No, we should just pre record like months and months out and make really strong predictions about what's going to take place in free agency.

[Mike Wright]

Hmm.

[Jason Moore]

Remember when Doug Martin was signed by the Steelers?

[Andy Holloway]

Breaking news, right?

[Jason Moore]

Just bust out. Breaking news on the show. All right, quick question for the day, guys. Dynasty question. Brand new league. All right, Brand new league you're drafting. You're going to be in this thing for a while. These are some good friends you're playing with. It's a competitive league. Would you rather have a 22 year old Allen Robinson or a 27 year old Antonio Brown? I'm trying to make the question as hard as I can.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I don't think there's anything you could do to make this one hard. To me it is a clear runaway victory for Antonio Brown. And I would put it like this. There is no more legitimate dynasty league than the NFL. There's a, they're a 32 team dynasty league. And if you were starting up an NFL franchise, which one would you draft first? It's not even a question.

[Mike Wright]

Ooh, I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

No. You're telling me that an NFL GM would, would say, well, I got a couple more years with this potential guy and Alan Robinson over drafting the hall of Fame caliber known commodity. Still young Antonio Brown. To me, I think it's obvious Alan.

[Jason Moore]

Robinson and his family appreciate your hesitation on this question, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I just, I think in the NFL, youth is highly valued and 22 years old for Allen Robinson. It would be a spectacular thing to start your franchise. But for the question I'M also with Antonio Brown. It's just knowing that you have Big Ben. You, you know what? You have a consistent guy who's done it for three years now. Is it three years that he's been.

[Jason Moore]

What about Big Blake?

[Andy Holloway]

Blake, that's new nickname.

[Mike Wright]

No, it's B.B. old B.B. look, he's getting better. Jacksonville is getting better. But like I said, I know exactly what I'm getting in Antonio Brown and Big Ben and from Brown, that's a. I have a top three receiver, Allen Robinson. I believe he's a wide receiver. 1. I think he is a spectacular NFL wide receiver. But how do you argue with a guy who's been at the top for multiple years in Antonio Brown and still has. He's 27, so he still has, you know, three, three to four in my opinion. Top, top level seasons left.

[Jason Moore]

What if, what if Robinson was cheaper for a lot longer? I'm trying to find a scenario where you're going to Alan Robinson. Yeah. His contract.

[Mike Wright]

So if you're in your contract putting.

[Jason Moore]

A hypothetical NFL situation out.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, well, that, that's when that.

[Jason Moore]

Would that make a big difference?

[Mike Wright]

It factors into it.

[Jason Moore]

But you still go Antonio, Antonio Brown in the, you know, he may go down as one of the best receivers ever. When all is said and done.

[Mike Wright]

He could.

[Andy Holloway]

You. You know, sometimes we get too enamored with potential and with youth. Whenever you want to win a championship. If you look at the championship winning teams, whether in the NFL or on your fantasy rosters, they have the guys that are at the top this year. Always.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I never, I never. I play for this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. You need the guys that are the best now. And don't get too overrun with the, with the age argument.

[Jason Moore]

And before we get to the news, I do want to remind everybody that Mike is much, much older than both of those guys. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

I like that we, I like that we had an iTunes review and I think the headline was something like, even though they're older than Larry Fitzgerald, it was pretty impressive. So thank you for that. All right, some news and notes from around the NFL for your fantasy teams for 2016. When I read this, I was surprised.

[Mike Wright]

I was too.

[Jason Moore]

ESPN Saints reporter Mike Triplett always dropping that offseason news. Mr. Mike Triplett expects the Saints to keep C.J.

[Mike Wright]

C.J. Spiller on the roster at least into training camp.

[Andy Holloway]

And I can tell you why. Because whatever has happened behind the scenes to create hatred for C.J. spiller among the Saints organization, they're like, oh, we're not releasing him when he could sign to another team. I'm keeping them buried.

[Jason Moore]

Punishment.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I'm keeping them buried. And then once everybody's signed, we'll cut him.

[Jason Moore]

CJ Speller should serve as a case of the off season excitement that was unwarranted for certain players to switch teams and you just project them forward. There's always a risk. There is always a risk that you have in those situations versus something that is stable as exciting as it is.

[Mike Wright]

Especially when a player who is new to a team gets hurt and really misses training camp and the that crucial time for them to learn the new system and gain trust.

[Jason Moore]

Agreed. So Jim Ursi has come out and said the Andrew Luck contract extension number will be shocking.

[Mike Wright]

Shocking. And they're always shocking each new quarterback contract. Have you, have you guys seen a quarterback contract lately that did not shock you one way or the other?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I think Ryan Tannehill's was fairish.

[Jason Moore]

Well, him and Kaepernick both had kind of those team friendly deals so.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Dalton. But just I don't know when it got announced.

[Christopher Harris]

Wow.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

That's what we talked about that with tight ends. All the, all the latest tight end deals are always the best tight end deal ever. Because things change. That's kind of how it works with contracts. You ever see in the MLB. Every contract that comes out, what was it? Giancarlo Stanton. 326 million over 13 years.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I can't wait for that. Billion.

[Jason Moore]

No concussions.

[Mike Wright]

Billion dollar contract.

[Jason Moore]

RG3 has passed his exit physical. Meaning he can now be cut.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, because his contract or they, they picked him up the option for next year which was only guaranteed if he was hurt. Which is why they benched him quickly when they realized that they didn't want to go with him. So there was very little chance of him getting hurt. So he will be cut and he will be moving on and maybe gets an opportunity to start. I would guess that he's going to end up as a backup.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, there is news, you know, out of Houston that they do not want, that the owner does not want Brian Hoyer around. They need a franchise quarterback. Just saying there's not many options out there on the free agent market and they're not Getting one at 22.

[Jason Moore]

I'm available. I'm available. Our flag football league starts this week, so.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right.

[Jason Moore]

I mean they'll pull me away from that.

[Mike Wright]

I'll get that big contract and cut you up. A sweet highlight video.

[Andy Holloway]

Our first game is tonight and this will Be our last show of all time.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Hey. The big news was the Mount Forte news. He came out and I don't know. Did you guys read his comments?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

So he came out and just said, you know, he enjoyed his time with the Bears. They've let him know they're not going to resign him. And so Matt Forte is one part of the story. The other part is Jeremy Lankford now seems to be the heir apparent in Chicago. So who are you more excited about? Jeremy Langford or where Matt Forte lands?

[Andy Holloway]

I am more excited about Jeremy Langford. We see that most often when these bigger name running backs switch teams. They don't live up to the expectation or the contract. So unless he signs with the Patriots or the Green Bay packers, which I don't think that would happen just because of his bear love, I believe that I am much more excited for Jeremy Langford if they don't go after some great, you know, running back in the draft, which I don't think they do. Langford is looking nice.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I like Langford. What he, what I saw on tape for Langford is, wasn't necessarily a superstar running back. However, a lot of times opportunity is greater than talent. I've been paying attention to Twitter and a lot of people are just in, especially in dynasty leagues. They're not very high on Langford. Like, we'll sell them now while you can. I don't see it that way. Unless Chicago, if Chicago doesn't make a move at the running back position, which they're not, I don't think they're going to do anything great. They have Lankford and then they have Kadeem Carey, who's going to be your vulture, your thorn and your butt Hawks. If you're the Langford owner. But he's young. This is his second year in the league and he's going to be given a starting job.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, dynasty league, would you rather have Mike, I'm going to put you on the spot. Jeremy Langford, T.J. yelding.

[Mike Wright]

Yelden.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

I'd rather have Yelden in that situation, but I like Langford. I feel like you're sitting very nicely with a guy with a starting opportunity for, for a team that's decent.

[Jason Moore]

From what I've seen, an early, early average out position. Langford does not seem to be fading. What I've seen, he's very high on the board. So he for redraft.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just speaking specifically to the dynasty guys I'm following on Twitter.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

And maybe they, they know something. I Don't. But I don't see a reason why you wouldn't like him right now for your Dynasty team.

[Jason Moore]

All right, so the. The big man, the big free agent, running back, Doug Martin.

[Mike Wright]

Doug Martin has never been called the big man.

[Jason Moore]

I had to give him. Look, if there's ever a time, it's when you're going to command $7 million annually as a running back in the NFL.

[Mike Wright]

The big bank man.

[Jason Moore]

Look, the big bank man. I like that. Number two in the NFL in rushing. Gonna hit the open market, and it's gonna cost somebody. Maybe the bucks, maybe not a lot of money.

[Mike Wright]

That's a lot of quiche.

[Jason Moore]

So this is another one of those situations where if he went somewhere else, it would have to be the right destination, obviously, but they're going to be spending a bunch for him. You know, similar to the trade for Lashawn McCoy, where you kind of knew the workload was there. This is not a situation where you spend a bunch of money on Doug Martin and give him a timeshare. So projecting him forward, he seems like a lock for one of those, you know, in the top five, six consideration.

[Mike Wright]

At running back for attempts, or you're saying for fantasy?

[Jason Moore]

Both.

[Andy Holloway]

You.

[Mike Wright]

So you love him no matter where he goes, you feel like you really like Doug Martin.

[Jason Moore]

I. I can't see a scenario where he goes someplace on that kind of money and ends up having no impact.

[Mike Wright]

See, I feel like. And there's been a lot you could tell.

[Jason Moore]

You could say Oakland. Right?

[Mike Wright]

That's what I'm gonna say.

[Jason Moore]

But are they gonna spend $7 million when they have Latavius Murray to share it?

[Mike Wright]

They were.

[Jason Moore]

I think it's too much money, but they were.

[Mike Wright]

They were fully in the DeMarco Murray sweepstakes last year. They. And I don't think so.

[Jason Moore]

That would be one place that I. Yeah, you'd have to question the value.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think that this year has solidified Latavius Murray. We saw him get doghoused multiple times over the year. Not that I'm not trying to crush Murray.

[Jason Moore]

Just what I believe they have an opinion about. They have an opinion about him.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

The truth is, most of the teams that would be willing to pay that kind of money for a running back from free agent come to them, are really not the better franchises. Not where I want my running backs to be located. However, I think he's going to stay with the Bucks because the Bucks aren't in a terrible cap position. I mean, look at it this way. I mean, they have Said so far that I don't think they're going to cut Vincent Jackson, but if they let. If they let the muscle hamster go and keep Vincent Jackson on his huge contract, I would just do a swapsies there. You know, they didn't have Vincent Jackson for half of this year.

[Jason Moore]

So Doug Martin leaves Charles Sims.

[Mike Wright]

Charles Sims, Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Under. Probably will be automatically underdrafted, even because of his name.

[Mike Wright]

If Doug Martin stays.

[Jason Moore]

Too many consonants. Then that's not why.

[Mike Wright]

If he stays Martin in Tampa Bay, Charles Sims is going to be underdrafted.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I mean.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I thought you were saying if Martin leaves.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you see, either way.

[Mike Wright]

Either way, I think Charles Simms is going to be underdraft. If I'm recalling right off the top of my head, SIMS was an RB2 and was fantastic in the passing game, which is not necessarily Martin's strength. We were talking over the weekend break, and I had brought up. We had already talked about Houston, but Houston as a destination for Doug Martin, I think that it's. There's a high percentage chance that they cut Foster, they move on. They're already talking about they need the running game going. They don't seem to have a solution on the roster right now. And Doug Martin would be a very big lift for a team that is. That appears close because their defense is so good.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I want to get into the. The overreaction segment of the show real quick. I've read this a few different times. You know, the idea here in Indianapolis is that they won't be able to keep both tight ends.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

And so the thought is they'll resign Fleener and let Dwayne Allen go. So we'll have to see where he lands if that is indeed the case. And so you guys ready to get into. Into. You got your picks? Do you have reaction picks?

[Mike Wright]

I've got them.

[Andy Holloway]

Best picks ever.

[Jason Moore]

You're going to have to bring those up against Chris Harris here pretty soon.

[Andy Holloway]

So.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not gonna do what you all think I'm gonna do, which is just flip out. Really like that drop Mike. I like it.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

All right, so overreaction. You could call this a number of things. The Pendulum episode, the rubber Band episode, whatever it is, we all do it. Everybody does it, every single year. And. And you kind of have to, because you're always trying to project forward a guy. However, I think in these cases, we're saying the reaction is just plain too strong and these guys are going too high or too low. And here's why. Right. And so I'm going to let Mike kick us off and give me a name of somebody that is your overreaction pick.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

We're going to start it at the tight end position. Now, I'll preface this for all of us. When we say just because we're over say people might be overreacting in a positive manner to these players, that doesn't mean that we will think. We think they will be bad or terrible for fantasy. We just think that where they are being drafted and will be drafted or will be drafted might be too early and because there's some certain flags that are standing out. So I'm going with Tyler Ifert, so.

[Jason Moore]

A lot of fantasy owners that'll be sad to hear you say that.

[Mike Wright]

And he is going, I believe as the third tight end right now because he's young, had a monster breakout year.

[Jason Moore]

Fifth round, fourth round tight end.

[Mike Wright]

Right now he's being drafted at the top of the fifth round. Here's the problem with Tyler Ifert. Touchdown regression. We see it from nearly every player in the NFL. When you come out, you have a huge touchdown year. It just, you can't sustain that kind of pace. There are a couple guys that can. So I'm not saying it's impossible, but I just don't. I'm not sure that Tyler Ifert will be able to continue that success with touchdowns because in games where he is not scoring a touchdown, he's averaging in standard leagues three and a half points a game. Last, this was last year. And that's the, that's the boom bust you can get from a waiver, waiver wire tight end. Now, Iford clearly was putting up touchdowns regularly, so he was fantastic for you. But he only had two games over five catches. One of those games was an overtime game. He has the room to improve, but if he doesn't score, he's going to suck. And for a guy who you're taking in the fifth round that early for, especially at the tight end position, you, I want a floor of production that I know I can count on it. It's not a touchdown.

[Andy Holloway]

Targets you want to make sure that they're involved enough in the game where if they don't get a touchdown, they're not going to crap your team if you're taking someone in the fifth. And so I can see that with, with Tyler Offer, obviously with his touchdown opportunity, if they keep that up, you know, like a Julius Thomas a couple years ago wasn't too involved in the pass game but was.

[Jason Moore]

That's.

[Mike Wright]

That's a perfect comp.

[Andy Holloway]

The red zone target, it's just not that common. So he could do it again. But we here are kind of projecting odds and odds of a player doing that are less common than normal.

[Jason Moore]

One thing to consider too is that he has a certain level of variables here. He's done it for one season. Hugh Jackson is left as offensive coordinator. Marvin Jones is likely to leave. We don't know what the running proportions will be, but we know Hugh Jackson always led the league, you know, top five in the league and in rushing attempts. Does that change the other direction?

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

We don't know, but it's hot. What we do know is this, is that touchdown sustainability at that level is very, very difficult for non Gronk when.

[Mike Wright]

You break down games played in yards and everything. He averaged 4 for 47 right. Over the course of the season. That's just.

[Jason Moore]

And had some injury concerns.

[Mike Wright]

So that's, that's very low.

[Jason Moore]

Jason, who's the guy that you want to kick us off with?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'm going to go since, since Mike went with someone that we might overreact to and high on, I'm going to go the other direction and talk about a guy that kind of soured in our mouth this year and we.

[Jason Moore]

He was not in my mouth. He did not sour in my mouth.

[Andy Holloway]

That could be taken the wrong way.

[Mike Wright]

He is, he's made of milk.

[Andy Holloway]

He is.

[Mike Wright]

Well, expired milk.

[Andy Holloway]

All these food analogies are perfect for my guy here. And it is Eddie Lacy, I want.

[Jason Moore]

You to read the five words you put at the beginning of your write up.

[Andy Holloway]

My five words were potential value thanks to fatness. And the truth is he came in as fat. Eddie this year was extremely overweight. Looked it played like it. And you've got that backstage now.

[Jason Moore]

The team has affirmed it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the team has affirmed it. Everybody saw it on the field. He ruined a lot of people's fantasy options because he was a top three pick. And so what we do with guys like that is we, we hate them. We become emotionally against them. And the truth is here's some things that happen. 1 and I think this not because.

[Jason Moore]

They'Re fat, but because you spent so much of a pick on them.

[Andy Holloway]

Because you spent so much of a pick. Keep in mind. So he had eight games last year with five or less fantasy points. That is crapping the team.

[Jason Moore]

That's eight weeks where we came in on on Monday disparaging Eddie Lacy.

[Andy Holloway]

He was in the pooped in his extremely big boy pants segment. And, and in several of those games. It wasn't just because he played bad. It wasn't because he played bad. It was because he got five or less carries.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

He wasn't involved in those games and you couldn't trust them. Why? Because the coaching staff couldn't trust him. He was overweight, all of that. In addition, you lost Jordy Nelson. So that changed the whole Green Bay offense. You could see it with Randall, Cobb.

[Jason Moore]

Rogers, apparently way more than we could have ever thought.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And even with all of that considered, keep in mind, he was the 25th running back. He wasn't, he wasn't disappearing from the scene. He still had big weeks and big games because he is a good NFL running back for a team that should be much improved next year on offense when they get Jordy back. So what I'm saying is this, I think it's a big deal. He's in a contract year, huge deal. Because he is at the age where he realizes he's got one more chance at that next big contract at a running back. He's going to lose weight in the off season. The packers have demanded it. And so if he comes in, if he comes in having shed some weight and he looks good in this contract year with a bounce back candidate, he's being drafted in the third round. He was, you know, a top five fantasy player two years ago. I think we're getting too, we're overreacting on how fat Eddie Lacey is.

[Jason Moore]

Listen, we're scared. We're scared. That's what it is. And I, I'm in the camp where most everybody on this list of the guys we mentioned today, I completely agree with. Eddie Lacy's the one name on here that I have hesitation with.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, why?

[Jason Moore]

Because of what the team thought of his effort and what we saw. Yes, money talks. Okay, I get that. But not to everybody. Not everybody can hear it because some people are a little too lost. Right? Yeah. There are a lot of players that have thrown away careers due to lack of effort, lack of making the commitment. I'm not in any way right now predicting Eddie Lacey will do that. But I'm also not taking a contract year and this hope to lose weight as a guarantee that it'll take place.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, the nice thing about this call is that you don't have to draft before you see how he comes into training camp. There's going to be reports all over when he comes into training camp. People are going to say he has lost weight, if he's lost weight.

[Jason Moore]

But if you're a keeper, dynasty owner, are you you're then saying, okay, it'll be all right.

[Andy Holloway]

Perfect, perfect example here is you cannot trade Eddie Lacy right now. You're not going to get value for him. People are, are so down on him that I think if you're a keeper, a dynasty option, you hold him because the potential for him to bounce back and provide you with value is there. Otherwise, you're selling him at a low point.

[Jason Moore]

So here's one quick question. I'll move on. I'll give you one of my names today. You have to write a name down on your team for a keeper running back. Is it Doug Martin or is it Eddie Lacy?

[Andy Holloway]

Ooh, if it's between those two, and it has to be today, I'm going to take Eddie Lacy because of the chance that Doug Martin could go to the Raiders. Bold.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it would be Eddie Lacey for me as well. I would be looking to acquire him in keeper leagues for the cheap because his value was down. And just a reminder for when we talk about Aaron Rodgers, because we're talking about the Green Bay offense as a whole, this is the first year, the first year where Aaron Rodgers has played the full year that he was not a quarterback one or the overall quarterback number one or number two.

[Jason Moore]

That's how sounds like his career is over.

[Mike Wright]

The only time he didn't do that was when he broke the collarbone. Missed time. So I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to be back and that just helps a guy like Eddie Lacy.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I'm going to give you a name of a guy who's being drafted too high in my opinion and will be drafted too high throughout the offseason and into draft season. And unfortunately for all the BB fans out there, it's a guy named Blake Bortles who's being drafted right now ahead of Russell Wilson, ahead of Carson Palmer, ahead of Drew Brees. He's the fifth quarterback off the board right now. He's going in the fifth round and it's just playing too high for a guy who listen, led the league in interceptions and fumbles. Okay, he is mistake prone.

[Mike Wright]

Still.

[Jason Moore]

He is growing and I am by no means saying he's not going to become a great fantasy quarterback. I think he'll be a good fantasy quarterback next year. I do not think he will be in the same position where he is second in the league in passing touchdowns. I don't see all of these mental errors going away next season. And so I think that means regression from a total fantasy point standpoint, especially with the inefficiency we saw in the goal line for Jacksonville in the running game in the red zone if you improve some of those things and he just takes a step back on a very hard to predict number. We've seen this so many times from quarterbacks. You could be whether it's Peyton Manning throwing 50 or your Blake Bortles or Matt Stafford or whoever it is, it's hard to sustain league leading essentially passing touchdown numbers. So I just think he's a prime candidate for overdrafting and people are just going to take him too soon. I'd rather go ahead and draft Drew Brees four or five rounds later.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Or. Okay, that's probably not going to happen but.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, there's a lot of guys. There's a lot of guys that are going to go very late in the draft at the quarterback position that I'm going to be fine with. Whether that's Andy Dalton or Carr, Eli Manning, Tony Romo. Those guys give me them. And a nice fifth rounder over Blake Bortles who is really should be a streaming option. He's dependent upon who he's playing. I'll. I'll go back on the next player because it's directly tied to Blake Bortles. Yeah, this was one of my favorite players this year. He led me to a championship this year in our league of record. We touted him from preseason on. So please do not think that I am a hater of this next man. But Allen Robinson is a guy that I think is going to.

[Jason Moore]

Overreaction.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, overreaction. He's 22 years old. He came into his second year and he exploded for 16 touchdowns. He's amazing. He was the fourth best wide receiver this year. So you could say when he's being drafted as the fifth wide receiver off the board, you could say, well but Jason, he did it last year. Why, why wouldn't you think he gets better in his third year? Look, look, public opinion, you're wrong on this. Here's some stats about.

[Jason Moore]

So who's he going ahead of right now?

[Andy Holloway]

He's going ahead of guys like where's the decision? Bryant Alshon, Jeffrey Demarys Thomas, the guys that get targets and volume and have done it for years and are still in their prime. I would take all of those guys over Allen Robinson. Personally, DT is a little questionable based on quarterback. But, but look JJ Zachary, great friend of the show. He posted this on Twitter about Blake Bortles. Since 1980, okay. Except this year because we don't have data for the coming year. 27 quarterbacks have thrown 35 or more touchdown passes and only two have ever increased their touchdown percentage.

[Jason Moore]

There's that Blake Bortles number you were talking about.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Look, Blake Bortles is not going to increase. And in addition to that, you want another reason why he's not going to. The Jaguars were the third worst in the league in percentage of touchdowns going to running back. They only had 13% of their touchdowns go to the running back position, which is an aberration. The NFL average is 30%. So some of those touchdowns are going to go away from. From the defense getting better. Some of those touchdowns are going to go away from a game plan change and the running back getting in. And not all of them are going to go to Alan Robinson, who had only 80 catches and got 16 touchdowns, who had a crazy yards per catch. There's just a lot of opportunity for regression. I think he's going too high because of his age. I would take a couple other guys.

[Jason Moore]

Ahead of that stat you gave about the percentage going to running backs is incredible because if you. I remember looking at Tampa last year, I don't know where they ended. There was a point in the season where they were like 78% of their touchdowns. I think running backs, because of passes and runs.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think they finished at like 60%.

[Jason Moore]

That's incredible. So.

[Mike Wright]

And it's.

[Jason Moore]

That's a good. That's a good point. And we like Alan Robinson. We love him. He's been one of our guys.

[Mike Wright]

And that's the question.

[Jason Moore]

But you can't overreact.

[Mike Wright]

Is. So where. Where are you okay, taking Alan Robinson if you don't want people to overreact? What is a. Okay, this is fair. This is a. This is a good place to take him in the draft.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, that's important because I think he's going to be good. I don't think he's going to completely poop your team. Right now I see him probably as like the 8th, 9th or 10th wide receiver off the board. But what that does from an overall draft position is that pushes you back a whole entire.

[Jason Moore]

You don't get Alan Robinson's what that means.

[Andy Holloway]

Right? That's what it means. I'm not getting Alan Robinson because Allen Robinson right now is going at the back end of the first round. I'm not taking Alan Robinson there.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Mike, your next overreaction candidate.

[Mike Wright]

So I'm going to go with a quarterback here because I want to remind some people his name is Philip Rivers. Now, Philip Rivers was having a monster, a monster season, depending on your scoring format. Was a top three quarterback for a lot of the season. And then I remember that, yeah, he was fantastic. He was the guy that I was trying to get on every single one of my teams because his playoff schedule looked so great. And then Keenan Allen, did he lacerate his kidney as well? It wasn't good luck, it was a bad.

[Jason Moore]

He had a major injury, it was.

[Mike Wright]

An internal organ related injury. And he went down and he was out for the season.

[Andy Holloway]

All of their wide receivers, they had.

[Mike Wright]

A wide receiver apocalypse that was the top of the domino.

[Jason Moore]

The domino that was right on the top of the domino.

[Andy Holloway]

I have no idea what domino in the line.

[Mike Wright]

So then they just continued to fall until you were left with Dontrell Inman as kind of your main go to is your go to guy. And it was just a disaster from then on out. Here are some fascinating numbers with Philip Rivers. If you take a look at what he did this season with Keenan Allen and without. Without Keenan Allen, his fantasy points went down about eight points a game. He averaged nearly a full touchdown less and almost 100 yards less per game without Keenan Allen. So you put Keenan Allen back in that situation, you get Ken Wisenhunt on the team, who is a bad head coach, is a great wide receiver, it's a great offensive coordinator. You get maybe some, some growth from Melvin Gordon, you improve the run game a little bit. And I just think that Philip Rivers is primed to be a late round quarterback target who could turn into a potential every single week plug and play quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I like that. I like that. The split on Keenan Allen and not Keenan Allen is a good sample size. It was exactly half the season, eight games with him, eight games without. And it was a drastic difference.

[Mike Wright]

Huge difference.

[Jason Moore]

I agree, I agree. All right, I'm going to give you my next name. This one might be a little controversial. I feel like it could be because of where he's going. But I actually believe that people are going to overreact to the negative about Deion Lewis. There are a lot of reasons why. One, obviously injury, recovering from injury to the Patriots. Okay, the running game is a quagmire. All right. Three, Lewis hadn't done it over a long period of time by any stretch of the imagination. Right now he's going as a fifth round running back. I actually think that's probably where he's going to go. I mean, I don't see that changing unless we get some incredible reports, some huge commitment from the coaches. That being said, I believe that Deion Lewis is undervalued at that draft position and the overreaction to the injury. And the questions are, is not warranted. Okay. He's going to be ready for training camp. The film your eyeballs told you how much better he was than White, but in case you wanted something else, they didn't hand the ball to White because you couldn't. He was 2.5 a carry. Do you know what Dion Lewis was? 4.8 a carry. On the, on the ground he was on. He was running at that kind of a clip. And listen, here's the real, real meat of this argument. When he was healthy, his points per game put him as the 4th best running back in half point PPR. Right now where he's going is borderline RB3 in the draft.

[Mike Wright]

That's gnarly for a guy that was.

[Jason Moore]

Fourth when he was healthy. He signed a two year contract. I see a lot of reasons why you should, you should hesitate on not keeping him in your keeper league. You should think about what he could be if he comes back and gets that role again, which I think he will under a contract.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't need to keep him in a keeper league because you can draft him at a good value.

[Jason Moore]

There you go. You're right.

[Andy Holloway]

So I do like that. I will say this. I worry about his injury history going back to college and whether or not he can stay on the field, but I'm fine with that in the fifth round.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, fifth round is spectacular. And speaking to the contract, it just. It striked when it happened, I thought this seems very unpatriotic.

[Jason Moore]

It did. It did.

[Mike Wright]

To give a running back a contract extension right in the middle of the season. A guy who has done it for a couple games. But to me that just says Bill Belichick found it. Said he knows when he finds the talent. He says, okay, this guy's going to stick around for a couple more years because our team is spectacular when he's at the back position. So I.

[Jason Moore]

We know the fantasy numbers of everybody else trickled down in the splits between those two.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

When he was out and what Brady.

[Mike Wright]

Could do, the offense really fell apart. Dion Lewis in the fifth round would be just spectacular. I would love that.

[Andy Holloway]

So. So I'm going to piggyback that and stick on the same team with a guy that I.

[Jason Moore]

So you're going. Your third name.

[Andy Holloway]

My third and final name.

[Mike Wright]

Do you guys like hold hands through a meadow? No, we were singing songs while you're making your pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, here's the thing. This one is actually a little bit is very different in the sense that it's not in actually strong. No, it's not in sync with Andy's take on Dion Lewis. Because I believe that Thomas Brady, Tom Brady, we are going to overreact and draft him too high. It's. It's simple. He's a great quarterback. Obviously, I think the best quarterback of all time from a fantasy option. He's not always the best fantasy quarterback. He's not even in the top half of the quarterback ones. Just looking back a couple of years, in 2013 he was the 14th fantasy quarterback. In 2014 he was the 9th best fantasy quarterback. And so look, I think he is going to be good. But where you have to take him right now is in the third round. For a guy that the Patriots could just become a running a running team or you know, a defensive team or anything with Bill Belichick there, they've done it in years past. So why would we put so much value in our draft to say, hey, I got to have Tom Brady in the third. That's too high for me. I'd much rather have a Dalton, a car, an Eli, a Romo late in the draft.

[Mike Wright]

What kind of car?

[Andy Holloway]

Sitting in the car.

[Jason Moore]

He's more of a Taurus guy.

[Andy Holloway]

But wouldn't you rather have them and pair him with. With a Julian Edelman or an Amari Cooper or a Latavius Murray or an Eddie Lacy that. Those are the guys going in the third round. Give me those guys with still a capable quarterback. Because if you do the other way, you're going to take Tom Brady in the third and you're going to end up with, I don't know, a running back backup for a team that you hope somebody gets injured. I mean, I don't know. Give me Tom Brady and you know, Amir Abdullah. No, no, thank you.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, I love the take. I pretty much took that stance last year and.

[Jason Moore]

And how'd that work out for you?

[Mike Wright]

It blew up in my face. Won't lie. But to me this, the history says that unless they get another elite level wide receiver option like let's say, not that he's elite, but a guy like Marvin Jones, a guy who can a burner who can actually catch the ball, unlike Brandon Trash can Lafell.

[Jason Moore]

So you've got Jones, Gronk, Lewis, Edelman.

[Mike Wright]

I. Third round, still going to be too high.

[Jason Moore]

That's the problem is I believe Brady does almost what he did last year. But I don't believe that I would draft him in the third round because that's. That is moving his quarterback Draft position to the point where it's just not viable for my roster.

[Mike Wright]

It will not return value compared to the guys that you can get later. So the last guy I'm going to bring up, it saddens my heart, but I'm Larry Fitzgerald. I'm bringing.

[Jason Moore]

So there's an overreaction for Larry Fitzgerald.

[Mike Wright]

Larry Fitzgerald right now is going in the fifth round because he was the renaissance man last year, but he was really, he did his damage in the first half of the year. We talked several times about this of the Michael Floyd hand injury that put him out for a long time in his recovery of him to get back in the flow of the game seemed to take about half of the season. The first half of the year, Larry went just buck nasty. He was, he was scoring touchdowns at a tremendous pace. He's. His yardage was nearly 90 yards a game for the first half of the season. Second half, the targets all stayed the same. Touchdowns really dropped off. Yard is dropped off because he moved into more of that possession receiver. And the emergence was Michael Floyd. I also pulled John Brown's numbers because people might think, well, John Brown, did he, did he take the Larry production? No, actually, when Michael Floyd came back, John Brown's production went down. Michael Floyd was the benefactor. He will be my target. I love Michael Floyd from the Arizona Cardinals. And not that I think Larry will be bad at all. I think he will be a solid, you know, lower wide receiver too, for your fantasy team. But that's not the wide receiver you want to target in the fifth round. At the top of the fifth round.

[Jason Moore]

Look, I hate to use the comparison that's been used, but it's fair. Heinz Ward and Larry Fitzgerald, their career in ending arc should be similar. I mean, Larry's in that, you know, motion inside receiver, good hands, make a play, good blocker. So.

[Mike Wright]

So he's just too high. He will give you games, absolutely. But for a fifth round guy that you're. You feel like you're taking a weekly plug and play guy in the fifth round, I just don't think it'll be Larry.

[Jason Moore]

So before we get to Chris Harris and his three names, because we promised you three more names, I'm going to close out our group with great irony in a way. Although, just because I said I like Nelson Aguilar to be an NFL player does not mean that I think Jordan Matthews stinks. But I did spend a lot of time last year disparaging where he was drafted, which, to your credit, you could argue, very fair. Right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

However, Jordan Matthews is the guy that is just plain being overreacted to because much like Eddie Lacy. Very much like him. Look, he was the number 11 wide receiver off the board.

[Andy Holloway]

You're drafting him. You're drafting him to be a stud wide receiver on the back.

[Jason Moore]

I sure as heck was not.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, no, I really got him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you were. And so he stung you. And he stung you in the worst way, which was the first seven weeks of the season when you had all these great expectations for the Chip Kelly offense. And look, he came out and he stunk. Guess how many games he had.

[Andy Holloway]

Two.

[Jason Moore]

He. I just said it.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm gonna. I'm gonna go with two.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, at the beginning of the. Yeah, that was really well played. 2 out of 7 games to start the season. He had double digits and I believe.

[Mike Wright]

They were the first two weeks.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So, I mean, he. He just. You threw him out there and he threw up for you. And he was much more efficient in the second half of the season. Right now, he's going in the wide receiver three range in the seventh round. Okay, you just said Larry's going in the fifth. Jordan Matthews going in the seventh round after the buy. Six and nine games with double digits. Seven of his eight touchdowns after the buy. He's got four, four speed. He's got a chance to play on the outside under Doug Peterson. And in two years, despite all the problems, the drops, I. There's this video that popped up on Twitter of him catching tennis balls at a million miles an hour and all these different positions with one hand over an eye, trying to improve the drops. Is this, you know, this article comes out or this tweet? Look, 1869 yards and 16 touchdowns in his first two years in the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

This might be my favorite guy on our list because there is no way, barring injury, that he doesn't return on a seventh round draft pick. Value. He. He's. I mean, he would have to.

[Jason Moore]

That's a silly. He won't go there. That's just such a silly place. But if he went in the fifth, maybe.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, even. Even in the fifth, he should be a value there.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he. Just, like you said, he had the shine and he. He made people upset and people get vengeful in fantasy football and you lose.

[Andy Holloway]

Chip Kelly and people are going to think, oh, the game's going to slow down.

[Jason Moore]

The definition of an overreaction is a guy who finished top 20, okay, after underperforming, and is drafted at the 35th position at wide receiver. Now that is an overreact that's an emotional reaction to a player that is not a statistical reaction to a player.

[Andy Holloway]

And I love that Andy is now on board.

[Jason Moore]

I guess. I guess I am. All right, without further ado, let's go ahead and bring in a friend of the show.

[Andy Holloway]

You talking to me?

[Jason Moore]

All right. The fantasy footballers are excited to bring in a good friend of the show, Christopher Harris of the Harris Football Podcast. Welcome back, my friend.

[Christopher Harris]

Hey, guys, what's going on?

[Jason Moore]

Well, we are in the midst of talking about players that we think people are going to overreact to either really good seasons, bad seasons. You know, every year we see this pendulum swinging one direction or the other. And so we're trying to break through that a little bit for the listeners. And we promised them three more names from Christopher Harris himself. So hopefully you've got some. Some good names for us.

[Christopher Harris]

I don't know what you're talking about.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man, he's got 20 names for us.

[Jason Moore]

20 names. So why don't you give us one of them and we'll see if we agree.

[Christopher Harris]

Okay. It's devontae Freeman. I think maybe it's the most obvious one. And you guys were nice enough to let me pick first, so I bet. Yeah. That he would. Am I right? That he would have wound up on at least one other person's list?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he probably would have.

[Christopher Harris]

Yeah, I bet. Maybe even more than one. But I think it's awesome. When I was emailing with Andy, I was like sort of in a frazzle and I. I did the 4 DM slip of calling Devontae Freeman Jaquiz Rogers.

[Jason Moore]

It was awesome. I started searching for Jacquiz Rogers, news that I had no idea about.

[Mike Wright]

Is he still on the Bears?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, I don't think he will.

[Christopher Harris]

Be, but, yeah, he's a free agent. Yeah, but. But I, you know, it's. That's completely unfair comparison because obviously Freeman had way more success in one year than Rodgers ever had, but they're similarly sized and. And honestly, they test out similar players. I mean, Freeman's a better player, but I'm not going to, like, totally back away from that comparison, which is stupid. Honestly. The comparison I want to make is Justin Forsett.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Christopher Harris]

Because coming out of 2014, what did we hear? Justin Fourchette said, you know, we're stupid for not having Justin Forsett as a borderline first round pick. Why shouldn't he be in the first tier of running backs? You know, why isn't he going to recapture the 2014 magic? And just to review what 4set did last year? Even before, I mean. Yes, okay, so I was against four set because I worry about backstat size. And my anti Freeman argument is mostly going to be about size and sort of lack of diversity in the way you can use the player. And yes, I will grant you that four sets arm breaking like that. That's probably not because he's little. Right. Most people's arms. I know my arm.

[Mike Wright]

If Aaron Donald jumped on me, I would be surprised if my entire body just exploded in about 50 pieces.

[Christopher Harris]

Right. You suddenly become the drummer from Spinal Tap.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, yeah, exactly.

[Christopher Harris]

Spontaneous combunction. But like, listen, even before foresight got hurt, what was his year like? Right. It was week 11 that he got hurt. And on tape, four set still looked pretty good. He still looked like Justin Forsett, you know, quick, really quick, tough for little guy, like some pretty decent speed. But surprise, the results weren't there. You know, when it went. I think you're just saying like the results don't always track exactly with what a player is. And a player like 4set isn't probably a lead dog to be a fantasy star in the NFL because of his size. And I don't think Freeman is either. The Falcons are going to try Tevin Coleman again because Coleman did have some high moments right in his rookie year. Of course he would fumble after he had such a nice moment. I also won't be shocked if the Falcons sign a bigger back like Alfred Moore Morris, who's worked with Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan again. I don't want to play the game that goes like all of Freeman's production came in three games or whatever because that's going to be true for most running backs. That was the Doug Martin criticism from his rookie year. That's I think more just sort of numbers, mumbo jumbo and stats lie.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Christopher Harris]

I think it's also, it's also unfair to say that Freeman didn't have a good season because he was really, really good. But the power running game, they just can't use the power running game when Devontae Freeman is in there. You know, you're. You're not going to get, you're going to get like a lot of horizontal stuff. You're not, you're not even really getting a lot of traditional zone blocking stuff that Shannon Jr. Wants to go. Freeman's a really good pass catcher. You know, I think most offenses need to be physical at some point and I don't think Freeman's your guy. I think they're going to add someone Else.

[Andy Holloway]

So let me ask you, on. On Freeman, do you think that. How low would you go? Would you say, you know, you'd rather have a Jeremy Langford type of guy, or because of the success that he had in the passing game, you'd still rather have Freeman, but you're worried, like, where would you draft Freeman? Where you're like, pass him up.

[Christopher Harris]

Right. So I don't. I don't usually do specific positional ranks before the draft just because, you know, they're not worth paper that we write them on in toilet paper. Right. But, you know, I don't. Knowing what I know right now, I'm not taking Freeman earlier than the third round, which is obviously, I'm not getting devonte Freeman.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Christopher Harris]

He is very useful in the passing game. He's very useful in space. But I want to, you know, like most NFL offense at some point, okay, The Patriots don't have to be physical. They've proven they can be ultra successful and make it to AFC championship games without any semblance of a physical football team. But most teams at some point do need to run a little bit or at least run the. The power running game. And I think if the Falcons are going to be a good offense, they're going to have to be able to do that. And I think that's inevitably going to lead to some disappointment with Freeman.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, very fair. Your second guy is one that just jumped off the page to me and would have been on my list for sure. So tell us Melvin Gordon. You have him being somebody who we agree with is going to be undervalued. So talk about Melvin Gordon.

[Christopher Harris]

Yeah, I mean, you know, please note, nobody on this show is going to do it. But like, if. If you're listening to people and they go, melvin Gordon averaged under, you know, three and a half yards of carry or whatever, please. Like that. This here's the legitimate example of why I hate that number. That number is, you know, except for at the very extremes, fairly useless. You know, if you're going to talk yards per carry, let's please mention that every other Charger running back also didn't get to 4 yards per carry because it was the worst offensive line in the league. I thought Gordon was pretty good on film a lot of the time. The stuff about how the system wasn't right for him. Stop crutch argument. It's nonsense. I think it's almost always nonsense. I think running backs of adequate size and adequate speed can play in any system. I think the whole DeMarco Murray couldn't play in Chip Kelly system. Remember when you had Lashawn McCoy the year before and you complained he was two side to side and then you signed DeMarco Murray and now he's not.

[Jason Moore]

Still looking for the right fit?

[Christopher Harris]

Yeah, it's just, it's. That's a bunch of nonsense. But I thought Gordon made something out of nothing. Maybe you know, as much, if not more than any running back I saw on tape last year. It was frustrating he never reached the end zone. It was way more frustrating to see him fumble. And if there's one legit criticism that says his NFL career could absolutely be derailed, it's ball security. I tend to think that gets better. But if you were going to tell me, if someone was going to tell me, listen, I'm not spending a third, fourth, fifth round pick on a running back I think is going to fumble six times and get benched. That's the criticism I could deal with. Yeah, I think every other criticism, the Danny Woodhead criticism, I just. Listen, if the Charger offensive line is bad again, this is going to be a bad call and it's been met for years, but I think eventually you fix it little by little. I think Melvin Gordon's legit.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and you look back, I think we were looking at these numbers this morning where when Wizen hunt was the OC three years ago, they were 13th in the running game. The past two years have been basically dead last. I think there's so many opportunities for him, and improving upon a zero touchdown number seems very likely.

[Christopher Harris]

Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, like, you know, this comes down for me to, if you're going to put a good player in like, the worst situation in the league, of course he's going to disappoint you. And he's going to do it again next year, too. And I don't know that Wizen Hunt himself can suddenly make that offensive line great. Right. But lines do change from year to year. They haven't for the Chargers, but typically they do. Right. We get surprised by five or six offensive lines that suddenly look good or better than we remember or whatever. Like, are we going to be shocked if the Lions line makes Amir Abdullah look like a human being? Again? Like, it seems to me that stuff does change, and what you want is the player who's talented enough to take advantage of it. When it does change, I think that makes Gordon a pretty interesting buy.

[Jason Moore]

I think we agree on that one. So what's, what's the last name you got for us?

[Christopher Harris]

So it's Doug Baldwin and You know, again, I got to pick the first three. I kind of knew that with Freeman and, and Gordon, I was probably hitting the sweet spot where most people would go, yeah, I can kind of see that. I'm not sure how you guys feel about Baldwin being on the overvalued list.

[Mike Wright]

I think you're about to go into fisticuffs here with Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

No, definitely not fisticuffs. But I will say this. We here have been, I think, torn on it between myself and then Andy and Mike. I think Andy and Mike are more on your side. That Doug Baldwin. We've seen who he is for years. He's not the guy that he looked like the last half of last year. But for me, I believe personally that, you know, after week nine, after that week nine bye from the rest of the season, he was the, he wasn't a good wide receiver. He was the number one fantasy wide receiver from that point on. And yet I actually, I wonder how much overreaction there's going to be because he's Doug Baldwin and there are so many sexier names above him. You know, I think he's going to fall in that fifth, sixth round and I am fine taking him there, but what is your take from a film perspective?

[Christopher Harris]

So my take is that I never see him line up anywhere but the slot. And it's just so. I mean, Victor Cruz did it, right? Victor Cruz had a year where he mostly lined up in the slot and was fantastic. But it's not easy to find players of his size, you know, 5, 10, whatever, you know, way less than 200 pounds, who provide year to year, constant fantasy value out of the slot, to say nothing of whatever that Seattle offense is going to wind up being. And that's a great question. Like, I think you have to bake in the risk. The idea that we don't at all know what that Seattle offense is going to be like. Okay, yes, you can logically say, listen, Baldwin picked up when Jimmy Graham got hurt. I don't, I don't think anybody expects Jimmy Graham to be a factor next year. And so maybe that's a, that's a, a stroke in Baldwin's favor. But then again, they didn't have a running back they trusted at that point. And Thomas Rawls will be back. You know, I think in his career, 75% of his routes out of the slot, I think last year, 80% of his routes out of the slot. The reason he was the number one running back from week wide receiver from week 12 on last year was 11 touchdowns. Which is insane.

[Andy Holloway]

Right?

[Christopher Harris]

Five of them were red zone touchdowns. That just doesn't feel like what Doug Baldwin is, you know, and we remember, you know, it's not typical red zone plays. It's a bunch of rollouts and misdirections and throwing against the grain and that's what Russell Wilson is. So maybe we could say Baldwin is your non traditional red zone target who doesn't look like one, doesn't really play like one, but because of the plays that they're running in the red zone, you know, maybe you could make an argument it recurs from year to year. Boy, it feels to me like that's a, that's a sucker bet.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I do just, I do feel like if defense is really keyed in for, you know, an entire year on Doug Baldwin and game plan for that, he doesn't have the physical tools to be able to handle, you know, he hasn't spent his career being double teamed or, or, you know, having coverage roll to him. So it could be a struggle. I just wonder what the overreaction will be from a, from an ADP perspective.

[Jason Moore]

I'm also going, I think that. Go ahead.

[Christopher Harris]

I think the overreaction winds up being fourth, fifth round and that's too high for me. I'm like eighth, ninth round. I don't want Doug Baldwin. I think I would, I mean, I would take Tyler Lockett before I take Doug.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. That's exactly what my question was. I was going to take this opportunity to get your Tyler Lockett take because I somehow I just feel, felt like even though Baldwin did what he did at any moment that could have been a locket game in the same capacity from what I saw on the field and where, where Lockett's heading as a receiver. So you like Lockett more?

[Christopher Harris]

I think I do. You know, again, I don't have receiver ranks because I don't until the draft, I usually don't put together like super, you know, I, I'll think about the first round, but after that I'm sort of waiting for the, the free agent drop, you know, guys to fall in and the draft picks to fall. But yeah, I think, just preliminarily thinking about it, I think I go Lockett over Baldwin. Now Lockett is an outside receiver. Lockett needs to be Antonio Brown, right, To be successful. I think he kind of can be. He's ungodly quick. He's not the fastest receiver in the league. There's Antonio Brown. They're very fast, but they're really difficult to cover on the outside. And Baldwin just, you know, Baldwin's going to play 20% of his snaps on the outside and rely on, I guess, volume. I mean, do you want to take a gander at like where Baldwin ranked in terms in this unbelievable year he had? In terms of receptions, I think he was 24th. He had one fewer, one fewer catch than Gary Barnage, you know, like that's his huge volume year. I think we're gonna, I think we're probably gonna see all of them regress and all of them frustrate us on a week to week basis. So I'm not gonna reach for any of them. But I think Lockett's a higher upside player.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I like Lockett quite a bit. It's interesting too, because between Baldwin's touchdown numbers and that being unsustainable and what we saw from Freeman in the beginning of the year, I think you can draw some comparisons about the kind of the physical tool argument on both guys, the unsustainable kind of production that you saw during parts of their season. And it just gets me hesitant. No doubt. And he'll, you know, most of these conversations we're having today are kind of what you said about, you know, Freeman, where we just won't end up with these guys. If this is the overreaction that takes place, it doesn't mean we hate them. It doesn't mean that they can't be productive. It just means that they're probably not going to be in our category because they're just going to go too darn high.

[Christopher Harris]

Yeah. I mean, what would it take for Devontae Freeman for Doug Baldwin to be dominators?

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Christopher Harris]

Given. Given their skill sets and they were dominators.

[Andy Holloway]

They were.

[Christopher Harris]

But what would it take? Like, you know, it takes extraordinary focus of an offense on them, which is a lot to ask of them physically. And it takes defenses to not realize that it's happening. Right. Because you get the inevitable year after reaction to it and then suddenly now you're getting a lot more focus and maybe it isn't quite as easy as it was. Antonio Brown is the exception. You know, Antonio Brown's amazing.

[Jason Moore]

It doesn't matter. Yeah, yeah.

[Christopher Harris]

Just because of the unbelievable quickness. And Baldwin just isn't that player. I think Locke gets closer to being that player.

[Jason Moore]

Yep. Makes a lot of sense. So, hey, we want to thank you very much, Chris, for coming on the show again. You, you out there should definitely check out the Harris football podcast. Chris is one of the best in the industry. We love the show. And you can check him out on Twitter at Harris Football. Thanks for joining us.

[Christopher Harris]

Hey, no problem, guys. It was a blast.

[Jason Moore]

Always a pleasure. All right, those are some great names. Now we've got 12 names out there, overreaction candidates for 2016. I agree with pretty much every one of those names. I think. I think these are good people to have in your brain early on in the offseason. Watch their ADPs. We'll be watching them with you. Figure out and when I say adp, because sometimes people ask that in the offseason episodes, that is average draft position. There are a number of resources out there on the Internet that you can find out where people are mock drafting players. And that gives you their average position. That lets you know values. We bring that number up a lot, so be familiar with it.

[Mike Wright]

And we pull our information, our ADP information from fantasy football calculator.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Most often that is our resource. So there is no mailbag on today's show because on Thursday we've committed the whole show to mailbag answering keeper dynasty, league formation, questions, commissions, whatever question you have, we are answering it on the show on Thursday. And make sure you stay tuned after today's show. And if you're watching on YouTube, that's where the show, after the show is gonna be. If you're not on YouTube, go subscribe to the show and listen to us spout off about something for an extra five or ten minutes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Wow, that excited.

[Mike Wright]

I'm running through topics in my head, trying to figure it all out.

[Jason Moore]

All right. All right. So thank you for tuning into this episode. Hope you enjoyed it. We'll be back, like I said, on Thursday and every week forever, or until our wife convince us to take a vacation or something.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.