Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The TRUTH About Fantasy WR's in 2015, Part 2

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode: Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The TRUTH About Fantasy WR's in 2015, Part 2
Release Date: January 28, 2016
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers return with the second installment of their series dissecting the performance and future of fantasy football wide receivers from the 2015 season. Hosted by Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright, the episode dives deep into player evaluations, potential breakout candidates for the 2016 season, and various NFL news impacting fantasy football strategies.

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Breakout Candidates for 2016

Andy Holloway (00:57):
Andy kicks off the show by introducing the focus on identifying "way too early" breakout candidates for the upcoming season, emphasizing the uncertainty inherent at this stage.

Jason Moore (03:16):
Jason predicts Jay Ajayi as a breakout candidate, highlighting his talent and previous limited action in the offense.

Mike Wright (05:07):
Mike selects Tyler Lockett, praising his speed and Seattle’s investment in him:

"I like Tyler Lockett. This guy is a freak. He is super fast." ([05:11])

Andy Holloway (07:02):
Andy adds Michael Floyd to the breakout list, citing his improved performance when healthy and potential for a top-tier fantasy season:

"I think Michael Floyd is my way too early breakout candidate. I feel pretty good about that." ([08:54])

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News and Updates

The hosts transition to general NFL news affecting fantasy football.

• Fitness Struggles:
  Jason humorously comments on aging and fitness challenges:

"Andy and I have started playing in the mornings and we used to do this a long time ago and now I'm having a hard, difficult time moving my body." ([09:17])

• Marshawn Lynch's Future:
  Discussion revolves around potential retirement and contract implications for Marshawn Lynch, questioning whether he might return at a lower salary or hold out:

"Peyton Manning's dancing is the best thing... Manning is going to retire." ([12:31])

• Tony Horton and Eddie Lacy:
  Tony Horton offers help to Eddie Lacy for offseason training, aiming to improve Lacy’s performance:

"Tony Horton has reached out to Eddie Lacy to offer him help to get into shape this offseason." ([13:07])

• Eagles' Contract Extensions:
  The Eagles secure Brent Selleck with a three-year extension, ensuring stability alongside Zach Ertz:

"He doesn't allow being banged up to take him out of being productive." ([14:38])

• HGH Investigations & Super Bowl Predictions:
  Speculation about possible HGH investigations for Peyton Manning is discussed, alongside Super Bowl predictions, with Andy shifting his pick to Denver:

"I want Peyton Manning to win. I'd like him to have the same amount as Eli. I think that'd be great." ([11:22])

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In-Depth Analysis of Wide Receivers

The core of the episode delves into evaluating wide receivers ranked beyond the top 12 from the previous analysis.

13. Demaryius Thomas

• Performance Concerns:

"He finished with six touchdowns. He had 105 receptions, just over 1300 yards... He did have the lowest touchdowns in four years." ([17:25])

• Future Outlook:
  Andy and Mike discuss whether his lower performance was due to offensive changes or quarterback play, with Mike suggesting:

"He's right back where he should be at the top." ([18:08])

14. Alan Hearns

• Consistency:
  Jason commends Hearns for consistent performance regardless of facing top or bottom defenses:

"He really was very consistent. He put up near the same amount of points per game." ([21:17])

• Future Projections:
  Andy and Jason agree Hearns can be a reliable fantasy asset, though caution is advised against over-drafting due to potential regression:

"I like Alan Hearns moving forward, I like the just the way the offense is." ([22:39])

15. Jarvis Landry

• Performance Evaluation:
  Jarvis Landry showed strong PPR performance but concerns about target volume and new coaching staff impact his future projections:

"165 targets... I would look for those targets to come down." ([25:29])

• Fantasy Outlook:
  Mike expresses doubt about Landry maintaining high target numbers under new offensive schemes:

"I would look for those targets to come down... overall, just all of his numbers will come down." ([26:06])

16. Sammy Watkins

• Breakout Potential:
  Sammy Watkins displayed significant potential but struggled with consistency and injuries, leading to a lower ranking than expected:

"He should have a little bit more consistency now." ([28:07])

• Draft Strategy:
  Andy and Jason debate whether Watkins should be prioritized over other receivers, with Mike eventually leaning towards Jeremy Macklin:

"But I think Jasper Matthews. He's a guy that should be owned, should be drafted and has potential to do this." ([35:11])

17. Jeremy Macklin

• Reliability:
  Jeremy Macklin is highlighted as a dependable receiver despite modest stats, though Mike hesitates due to team strength:

"He's the number one on a football team... he's on an Alex Smith team." ([34:56])

• Future Outlook:
  Hosts consider Macklin as a high-end receiver but discuss concerns about being overshadowed by team dynamics:

"I pretty much agree with that take and where I would project him to be. I'd love to have him as my 2." ([34:56])

18. Emmanuel Sanders

• Performance Issues:
  Emmanuel Sanders had fewer receptions and consistency issues, attributed to quarterback play, leading to a downward projection:

"He only finished with 76 receptions, a big role in the offense, a guy who makes big plays but isn't a wide receiver one." ([37:47])

• Future Strategy:
  Hosts suggest Sanders might drop in rankings depending on quarterback stability:

"It's kind of here that, you know, what's going to be." ([37:27])

19. Michael Crabtree

• Inconsistency:
  Michael Crabtree had nine touchdowns but inconsistent yardage, questioning his reliability next season:

"I personally would not finish. I don't think he's gives me a." ([41:06])

• Future Projections:
  Andy and Jason express skepticism about Crabtree's ability to improve significantly, considering offensive dynamics:

"I think they are opening up more for Blake Bortle. So the yards per pass." ([43:05])

20. Jordan Matthews

• Underperformance:
  Jordan Matthews finished lower than expected due to inconsistent play and team dynamics, leading to debates about his future value:

"It just is a downward spiral... gets a fresh reset off season." ([43:04])

• Draft Considerations:
  Andy and Mike discuss the potential for Matthews to rebound but express concerns about his draft position:

"I don't know if Aguilar is a good wide receiver." ([45:25])

21-25. Additional Receivers

• Amari Cooper, Ted Ginn, Mike Evans, Randall Cobb, Travis Benjamin, Alvin Kamara, and Tavon Austin are briefly mentioned with varying opinions on their fantasy value, consistency, and team roles. Notably, Tavon Austin is critiqued for underperformance despite being a versatile player:

"He had six rushing attempts and nine total touchdowns... is he just annoying to own or did we just miss projecting him higher?" ([62:05])

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Conclusion and Future Outlook

The hosts wrap up by teasing upcoming content for the offseason, including:

• Early sleeper and breakout predictions
• Draft previews and rookie overviews
• Strategy tips and tricks for fantasy football success

Andy encourages listeners to visit their website and engage with their community for continued support and updates:

"We're an independent podcast. You can check out jointhefoot.com." ([67:18])

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Notable Quotes

• Mike Wright on Tyler Lockett:
  "This guy is a freak. He is super fast." ([05:11])

• Andy Holloway on Michael Floyd:
  "I think Michael Floyd is my way too early breakout candidate. I feel pretty good about that." ([08:54])

• Jason Moore on Josh Gordon:
  "Josh Gordon is going to be a fun one. He was almost." ([56:21])

• Andy Holloway on Tavon Austin:
  "He was a weapon. He had nine touchdowns total touchdowns, I believe. Five through the air, four on the ground." ([62:05])

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Final Thoughts

This episode provides an exhaustive analysis of wide receivers in fantasy football, balancing statistical performance with team dynamics and future projections. The hosts engage in lively debates, offering listeners diverse perspectives to inform their fantasy strategies for the upcoming season. Whether you're a seasoned fantasy manager or new to the game, this episode equips you with insights to enhance your roster decisions.

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Stay Connected:
Visit fantasyfootballers.com for more content and join the fantasy football community at jointhefoot.com. Follow the hosts on Twitter @theffballers for updates and live discussions.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

This is hall of Fame and Marshall.

[Jason Moore]

Falk, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Hello, everybody. We're back. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast yet again. Dropping into your pocket like a walket. Thursday.

[Mike Wright]

I'm doing a head bob, Jan. You.

[Andy Holloway]

Always do something physical, but then the majority of people are listening to this.

[Mike Wright]

That's all right.

[Jason Moore]

They're fools.

[Andy Holloway]

And then you give the subtitle to what you're doing.

[Jason Moore]

They're fools.

[Mike Wright]

That's how you do good radio.

[Andy Holloway]

Last show, you were twisting. Yeah, I'm doing the twist. I'm doing the twist right now. I'm like, they can't see you, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

They can on YouTube and on the Fantasy Sports Network.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Mike Wright]

You can't see. Energy, man. I'm. I'm. I'm sending it through the microphone.

[Andy Holloway]

I have a lot of energy right.

[Mike Wright]

Now with this head bob.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Well, there you go. So it's Thursday, January 28th. We're back again. We're delivering the second wide Receiver Truth episode. That's the. That's the meat of the show today is we're breaking down on Tuesday. We talked about the top 12 receivers that based on where they finished last year and looked at their numbers, how they perform against good Ds, bad Ds, how what was their consistency. And we're doing that today, and we're taking it from 13 through however far we get. And we're gonna look at some of these names, and it's surprising sometimes to look at a name and see where they finished.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, there's. There's one name that's downright shocking.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, we just talked about it. Right? We'll get. We'll get.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we'll get there. No spoiler alerts.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So if you want to follow the show, you can do so on twitter @the ffballers. You can obviously subscribe to the show on itunes, and if you do that and you like the show, we always appreciate itunes reviews. They help the show out. It's an easy way to say, hey, my team did really good this year and I listened to you all year. But if it didn't do well, obviously don't leave a review. We're on the Fantasy Sports Network. As Jason said, we're on YouTube. You can subscribe to the channel on there and you can visit the website, the fantasy footballers.com. i got a quick question for you guys. Let's kick this off. Who's your way too early breakout for 2016.

[Jason Moore]

Hmm. Way too early. Breakout. So we don't know what's going to happen. All right, I got mine correct.

[Andy Holloway]

We are now way too early to know. Fortune tellers.

[Jason Moore]

I am going to sayers. I am going to fortune tell sooth, and I'm actually going to change this up.

[Andy Holloway]

Soothsayer. Yeah, but you don't know that that's a.

[Jason Moore]

That's a thing. Really? Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Bro, I've never heard that.

[Andy Holloway]

Very normal, like, common word.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

What does it mean?

[Andy Holloway]

A person supposed to be able to foresee the future.

[Jason Moore]

All right, so here's my soothsayerness. All right, like J.

[Andy Holloway]

Take the word tooth, but with an.

[Mike Wright]

S. Well, it's like I sooth the savage beast.

[Andy Holloway]

What?

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

What does that even mean?

[Mike Wright]

Soothe.

[Jason Moore]

Did either of you hear my J.

[Mike Wright]

A Jai.

[Jason Moore]

Jai.

[Andy Holloway]

I heard you. That's not who you have down in the.

[Jason Moore]

That is not. I changed it because it's way too early. I want to. You know, we don't know what's going to happen. I think that Lamar Miller is probably not going to stay in Miami if he leaves. I think Jay Ajayi is talented. He did enough to show me in limited action and of course, in his college career that he could break out. And so he is a way too early. I mean, obviously, if Lamar Miller's back there, J.J. is worthless.

[Andy Holloway]

I will say this. I like that selection more than what you had written in the doc.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Mike Wright]

I will say this.

[Andy Holloway]

It feels like more of a breakout.

[Mike Wright]

Whenever they have someone sign a contract for the Dolphins, I feel like there's an obligation that Will Smith is there singing the welcome to Miami song.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not sure. I've never signed a contract for the Dolphins.

[Mike Wright]

I know I'm throwing this out there.

[Jason Moore]

So.

[Mike Wright]

Brass of the Miami Dolphins, if you're not having Will do people sign contracts.

[Andy Holloway]

With the Miami Dolphins?

[Jason Moore]

They do, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. They get paid.

[Jason Moore]

Sue.

[Mike Wright]

They get paid.

[Jason Moore]

Got 100.

[Andy Holloway]

You see.

[Mike Wright]

Remember that Mike Wallace contract?

[Andy Holloway]

You see that they're going to try to reconfigure that contract with the sue one? Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I believe you mean the Albert Haynesworth deal, which I predicted last offseason.

[Andy Holloway]

It wasn't like sue was bad.

[Jason Moore]

He certainly.

[Andy Holloway]

But he wasn't $120 million good.

[Jason Moore]

He wasn't even. He wasn't even. I don't think he was top 10 in his position.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

It changed halfway through when they. When they changed the defensive coordinator situation. He improved and that, you know, the team had, like, no sacks before the change.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So they certainly weren't maximizing the talent.

[Mike Wright]

There's just nobody besides a quarterback in football is worth that much money.

[Andy Holloway]

So Jason went with a running back. Jai Miami Dolphins. I like it. Mike, who's your way too early breakout? I'm going running back from you. What do we got?

[Mike Wright]

No, we do not. I'm going with a wide receiver. I'm going with Tyler Lockett.

[Andy Holloway]

I love Tyler Lockett.

[Mike Wright]

This guy is a freak. He is super fast. A very, very talented guy. Seattle got this one very, very right. I mean they, they sold basically the rest of their draft so they could move up and get Tyler Lockett where they did. And that was a genius maneuvering. I was, I talked about this on the last show that I think that the, I think Seattle's going to change, change their offensive philosophy to be more focused on the pass. They're not going to completely abandon the run. They're not going to be the Dolphins, but they just, they will throw a good bit more like kind of like they were towards the second half of the season. So I like Lockett to, to break out next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I like Lockett a lot. And like you just said, that's kind of an endorsement of the offense changing because we've said when we were looking at the Seahawks before the season it was kind of, well, we can't really buy into wide receivers. And then all of a sudden week nine in this season hit and something was different. And while I don't think by any means it was all Marshawn Lynch's fault when they lost in the playoffs, that was the first game lynch was back in that run. Right. Like this offense had been functioning as this well oiled machine. Even with the Christine Michael Bryce Brown life. I thought it was, I thought it.

[Mike Wright]

Was very interesting that not to just go back to, you know, like I'm piling on how great Michael is, but Michael was playing well and they get to the, the playoff game where lynch is healthy. I believe Michael did not see a snap. And it's just a, it's a strange thing to me to go back to a player who has not played in months in such a big game. I know it's lynch, but when you have a guy who's playing well in your system and your team is just cruising along, dominating people, dominating.

[Jason Moore]

I can tell you that if I was the coach, I would go right back to Marshawn Lynch.

[Mike Wright]

But, but would you keep Michael completely off the field? Yep.

[Jason Moore]

I mean I, maybe it's a Mistake. I'm not saying it's right, but that would have been the decision I would have made.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just not even a good game to analyze that with because it's not like they could run the ball after they were down like 30 points and. Yeah. In three minutes. So. But it was a change, right? Like this always. We were talking in Arizona about the fact Chris Johnson could come back for the super bowl and you kind of go, well do you want him to if you've just made the Super Bowl.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, it's a point. But speaking of Arizona, Andy, who is your.

[Andy Holloway]

So my breakout and it was a little bit hotly contested before the show when I mentioned it, but I think he's, he's beyond qualified for this.

[Jason Moore]

Beyond qualified.

[Andy Holloway]

It's Michael Floyd of the Arizona Cardinals. Look, this is a guy who had six, let me see here, five 100 yard games in the second half of the season. He is, he's under contract next year. Larry Fitzgerald tailed off once Floyd was back and healthy. Floyd is the guy that I think will be the number one fantasy producer for Arizona and his best season is. You're talking about 65 receptions. I don't think he's, he's not 100 reception type of guy. He is a more of a big play receiver. But I think this is the year where you, you're going to press double digit touchdowns with him. I think he could finish as a top 12, top 10 wide receiver next year. He's never had a season where he finished as a, as a wide receiver. 2. At the end of the fantasy year despite playing every game, this is the time, you know, a very high draft pick showing it on the field. Bruce Arians came out and said hey, he could have had a 1500 yard year if he hadn't started the season with the finger issues.

[Mike Wright]

So with his bones sticking out of his hand.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. Yeah. That's always never a good way to start, never for a wide receiver. So I mean, I don't know, he's.

[Mike Wright]

A kind of wimp.

[Andy Holloway]

So I'm going to go with.

[Mike Wright]

I'd have been out there.

[Andy Holloway]

Michael Floyd is my way too early breakout candidate. I feel pretty good about that. I don't think there's a lot that's going to change on that offense which is another, you know, a stability opportunity thing. So that's, that's our breakouts. We got Tyler Lockett from Mike. I took Michael Floyd and then Jason has J A J E. So let's get into the news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league, the first piece of news is that we are too old to play basketball. Breaking news. Andy and I have started playing in the mornings and we used to do this a long time ago and now I'm having a hard, difficult time moving my body.

[Andy Holloway]

So you said you after play had stopped this morning, you proceeded to sweat for an additional 50 to 60 minutes, is that correct?

[Mike Wright]

No, it has to be good, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Like that is prolonged calorie burn that just your body.

[Mike Wright]

What's better? I enjoyed more of the. The message exchange was this was post shower. He had showered and cooled down and just could not. And he was still sweaty.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

If you can induce seizure like situations after a workout, that can burn more calories from my understanding. So, yes, you're right, I'm very sore as well. But we're going to get into shape.

[Jason Moore]

What other news is that?

[Mike Wright]

NFL news.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, Marshawn lynch, we talked about him. There's reports that he might have to pay back some of his signing bonus if he were to retire. This would lend to the idea that maybe he'd just let Seattle cut him. There's also the thought that Seattle's not going to ask for money back from a guy who's kind of put you in the super bowl and been a star. That's not traditional, but it could bend him towards coming back on a lower deal or something. Maybe.

[Mike Wright]

To me it just says, Marshall, lynch is going to have to hold out. He's just going to have to say, I'm not showing up to camp. I'm not retiring. You will cut me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that how he wants to go? Is that how a guy wants to go out though?

[Jason Moore]

Like for $5 million? Yeah. I think if he leaves, they're not going to ask for the money back. That's my guess. But we do need to remember this for the upcoming season based on what you're saying, Mike, if he's holding out and we got to remember that there's this $5 million, that's kind of possibly the reason and not necessarily get down, you know, on the replacements and say, well, lynch is going to be back. He could be back. We don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

You mean not get down on rolls?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Specifically, I was like, are there a bunch of replacements for Lynch? Do you piece them together?

[Jason Moore]

No. Bryce Brand. It's Thomas rolls.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so Peyton Manning told Bill Belichick this might be his last rodeo. I think we all knew it might be his last rodeo. I want this to be on record, though. We made super bowl predictions on Tuesday. And I'm quickly changing that. I re. You know, that was. We said. Okay, this is a quick question. Pick somebody for the super bowl. Right on the heels of the Cardinals getting a beat down. Carolina's great. Don't get me wrong. I think the game's gonna be much closer than I said on Tuesday. And so I'm going on record to say that one. I want to see Peyton Manning go out with a ring. Just personal. I'd like to have him have the same amount as Eli. I think that'd be great. And I'd like him to not have three losses in the super bowl. And their defense is outstanding. He's.

[Jason Moore]

So are you switching to the Broncos victory or just because you were. You were. Panthers blowout. So you've gone all the way.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'm going to completely switch.

[Jason Moore]

I don't blame you. I mean. I mean, I was the only one here that said it was going to be a really close, really low scoring game.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to take Denver. I think it'll be. I think it'll be a good game, though.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm excited.

[Mike Wright]

My pick is still the same, the Panthers, but what I want to see more than anything in the world is Peyton Manning win. And then I want to see some massive dabbing. I want to see Peyton Manning.

[Jason Moore]

What.

[Mike Wright]

What would that look like if he. If he tries to throw the shade and sleep on the Carolina Panthers? What does that look like?

[Andy Holloway]

He'll do it wrong.

[Jason Moore]

No, that's the point. He would never. He just. He just immediately.

[Andy Holloway]

The gif.

[Jason Moore]

Where like, both of them dancing.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah, that was great.

[Mike Wright]

Well, there's like a Newton.

[Andy Holloway]

Newton and Manning. Yeah, Manning's on the bottom and he's white. Manning it up.

[Mike Wright]

Is he doing the twist?

[Andy Holloway]

Basically doing the twist. All right. Tony Horton has reached out to Eddie Lacey to. Reached out to Eddie Lacy and offered him help to get into shape this offseason.

[Mike Wright]

Tony Horton P90X fame Beachbody superstar.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Tony Horton's awesome.

[Mike Wright]

I like.

[Andy Holloway]

Hilarious.

[Mike Wright]

I like Tony Horton.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So. But the. The real line is, if Eddie Lacy gets onto a weight loss regime, you've already had the coach come out and talk about it. If he were, you know, is he going to be a guy that just starts getting pushed back up boards because of what we've seen before?

[Mike Wright]

Maybe.

[Andy Holloway]

Either way, do they want him to be the workhorse?

[Mike Wright]

I think they do because I think that he can do it.

[Jason Moore]

If Ed.

[Mike Wright]

If Eddie Lacy shows up in shape, which I actually think that he's going to do this off season, I think this was a one of those years where he realized you to be a professional NFL player, you have to take it seriously the entire year. And Jason is watching the gift.

[Jason Moore]

I have. I have found it. We'll have to post this on our Twitter right now. It is. It is excellent. I'll post it right now.

[Mike Wright]

Man. Cam Newton's. No, Cam Newton's touchdown celebration is just.

[Jason Moore]

Peyton Manning's dancing is the best thing.

[Mike Wright]

But anyway, so if Eddie Lacy, if he gets. If he shows up in shape and I mean, he's gonna be a steal in my opinion.

[Andy Holloway]

So. The Eagles have signed Brent Selleck to a three year, 13 million dollar extension.

[Mike Wright]

Which was why this is news is just because they're the. Zach Ertz just got his extension. So it was. Was Brent Selleck going to be expendable? Nope, he's still on the team.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they love Brent Selleck and you know, he's actually a more of a weapon when you have Ertz on the field because every once in a while they'll throw him into a pass pattern and they're not, you know, he's still capable of doing that. So anything else you guys want to talk about? Before I get into the wide receivers, the.

[Jason Moore]

There is the NFL saying they're going to investigate the HGH investigations for Peyton Manning. The only reason I bring this up is because there was investigations going on with Tom Brady last year. He won the Super Bowl. So it's looking good for your picks.

[Mike Wright]

Andy, you know what this is going to be? This is going to be Ray Lewis, deer antler spray or whatever. If you guys remember that.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Where he was in the super bowl and allegedly used an illegal product. And Peyton Manning's going to retire. So.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

What are you going to do?

[Andy Holloway]

That would be a bad. It is a final thing.

[Mike Wright]

They will. He's going to retire and they'll drop it.

[Andy Holloway]

You think?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

There you go.

[Mike Wright]

The NFL is not going to smear Peyton Manning as you after he retires.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's move on to the wide receivers.

[Jason Moore]

You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers? I want the truth. You can't handle the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, on Tuesday, we broke down the truth about the top 12 wide receivers in 2015. I'm going to recap those names for you. You can go back and listen to the show if you want all the. The info that we were laying down. All right. Antonio Brown was number one. Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, then Alan Robinson, Odo Beckham Jr. DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Eric Decker, Larry Fitzgerald. And we rounded out the top 12 with Brandon Cook.

[Mike Wright]

And we should remind everyone that is standard. Those are the standard top 12.

[Jason Moore]

Non PPR.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And so we kind of looked behind those numbers. I remember some things sticking out. One of the big things was how Allen Robinson's reception totals didn't match, kind of where he was and how he played against bottom 16 defenses. He just took so much advantage of the worst teams in the league. Didn't seem to be matchup proof. But we break down each and every guy on Tuesday's show. So check that out. Number 13 on the list is somebody who before this season had been really a perennial top five guy, Demaryius Thomas. Now, we saw on many teams quarterback tumult that resulted in worse years. Now, Hopkins seemed to be matchup proof, but really, I mean, is it, is it easy to say he would have been better with consistency at that position?

[Mike Wright]

He just would have been better with a better quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, his second half wasn't like his first half. We talked about some of the reasons Jason broke that down, but Thomas had to go through bad Manning. Okay, Osweiler, now you've got some good Manning in the playoffs, but it wasn't a normal season for demarius. Tom. Well, then the huge difference, but he was still almost a top 12 guy.

[Mike Wright]

The really big difference was touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's really the main thing. Right.

[Mike Wright]

Three of the last four years he had been a double digit touchdown guy, and this year he finished with six. He had 105 receptions, just over 1300 yards and only six touchdowns. So, I mean, you, you give him the four more touchdowns that you would, you had him expecting.

[Andy Holloway]

He's right back.

[Mike Wright]

He's right back where he should be at the top.

[Jason Moore]

So the question then as we look towards the future is, you know, was that basically the change of having Kubiak coming in and being that running team running first? You know, you get down along that goal line, not necessarily calling the pass plays to Demarius, the fades, things like that. Is that an indication of, you know, he should Finish in the 6, 7, 8 touchdown range or he'll bounce back. And it was just a bad year with quarterback play because I lean more towards, you know, if he's, if he and Emmanuel Sanders are both back, I lean more towards it being the 6, 7, 8 range.

[Andy Holloway]

Going forward, his yards, his average yards per catch were down. And I think that's indicative of the system as well. He had the lowest yards, total yards in four years. He had the lowest touchdowns in four.

[Mike Wright]

Years because Denver had just been. Their offense was out of control the last few years.

[Jason Moore]

So there's really been a change of method and of the desire of what they want that team to be with Kubiak coming in, they want to play better defense, slow the game down. It's just not great for fantasy numbers. So I expect this to be more.

[Andy Holloway]

Of the train the baseline and now he was better against bottom 16 defenses. He put up 16 a game against them versus 11 against the top 16 defenses.

[Mike Wright]

And the entire reason touchdowns. You're looking at end of season rankings. He just wasn't scoring on top half defenses. I lean towards the bounce back candidate. I think demarius Thomas is a guy who can similar to a Des Bryant.

[Andy Holloway]

Where he's just going to.

[Mike Wright]

He's built for a 10 touchdown season. It just didn't work out this year. The question of the quarterback is huge. Next year they, I mean Denver, look, Peyton Manning, I think he's going to retire. Brock Osweiler is a free agent. So they have to make the decision is Brock Osweiler the quarterback of the future because you're going to have to pay him to keep him around because he's going to shop his services or do you. Do you have to find a new quarterback? I mean do you find a stopgap veteran somewhere?

[Andy Holloway]

So I guess yeah, a lot of questions that need to be answered. But as of right now, if Demary Thomas was your. Excuse me, if he was your number one wide receiver, would you be comfortable next year? You think?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I would.

[Andy Holloway]

On your fantasy team?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I would.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number 14. Look, he's only. What Eric Decker was number 10 and that's a wide receiver two on his team. Number 14 is his counterpart now and Hearns. Yeah, these guys were surprises to some. Mike was really on the Decker train. But I don't know if you expected a top 10 performance from Eric Decker.

[Mike Wright]

Not top 10, but I thought he would be a 2 but 10 was just now.

[Andy Holloway]

Hearns battled some injuries this year, played hurt a little bit, missed a game. Jason, what do you see from Alan Hearns moving forward? He was 14 in this list. He was 16th in terms of consistency with eight top 25 performances, three top fives and four that were outside of the wide receiver four range.

[Jason Moore]

His consistency is what I really liked. And when you're looking at, you know, in next year's draft, when you're looking at a second wide receiver, obviously I don't see Alan Hearns as the type of guy that's ever going to, you know, go into that tip top player but what you liked. So we talked last time on Tuesday. Allen Robinson had such a disparity between the top defenses and the bottom defenses. One of the biggest of, of every wide receiver out there. Allen Hearns was very consistent in that. Against the top defenses or the bottom defenses, he pretty much put up near the same amount of points per game. The way that Blake Bortles used him, you know, wasn't dependent because he was the number two. He didn't really change from week to week as far as game plan. He used him consistently the same way. Went to him a lot on third downs, which you like to see. He's super young, super. So I feel like Alan Hearns is a guy you can rely on a little bit for next year. And you know, when it comes to playing through injuries similar to Decker, I mean, he's a tough guy. He's not a guy that's going to allow, you know, being banged up to take him out of being productive. So, you know, number 14, I think that's a little higher than I would project him to be next year because I don't expect him to have 10 touchdowns. But he's a guy that you can rely on and more so than than I think the guys that are going to go in his ADP range.

[Mike Wright]

My concern for Alan Hearns, I have it written down. I gotta get back to my thing. He had plus seven targets. Okay, so he had seven more targets. He had seven more catches then what? Last year. Sorry. Thank you. This is the last year. Seven more targets, had seven extra catches, 350 yards, four touchdowns, more than last year. So while I agree with Jason, I like Alan Hearns moving forward, I like the just the way the offense is. Hopefully Bortles can continue to evolve as a, as a pro quarterback. And though I imagine there's still going to be some delicious garbage time from Jacksonville next year. But you got to be careful, do not overdraft Alan Hearns with those. That kind of improvement on seven targets. You got to be careful for regression.

[Jason Moore]

You also have to keep in mind that the offense really changed. They brought in Greg Olson. Blake Bortles.

[Andy Holloway]

They brought in Greg Olson.

[Jason Moore]

The offensive coordinator? Yes. Not. Not the tight end, the offensive coordinator.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I thought you were going Julius Thomas direction for a second, so I was like, wait, you got the wrong guy.

[Jason Moore]

But they are, they are opening up the offense more for Blake Bortle. So the yards per. Per pass, you know what bortles, 1500.

[Andy Holloway]

More yards than last year, 35 touchdowns to 11. Okay, so you can continue. But my point was just the disparity might not go away.

[Jason Moore]

Right. It's possible for a regression. I definitely would not. Here's what I would not do. I would not project for the hey, this is now the next year. Blake Bortles is in his third year, Alan Robinson, and everybody's going to go up and project them higher than this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

But I don't necessarily see regression here.

[Andy Holloway]

I think the way that we broke down Robinson, I think Robinson comes down a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Or other guys are going to surpass him. There's names behind Hearns on this list that I would take ahead of Alan Hearns next year. I do think he'll be a two. I think it will be a wide receiver. Two in fantasy from a consistent. Because his consistency levels. You've got the stability of that offense in the same way that you have with New York. You've got. They're committed to Portals. Their head coach is coming back despite Jason's protestations. So let's move on to the next guy here. Jarvis Landry played 16 games, had 165 targets, 110 receptions over 1100 yards, only four touchdowns through the air. But this is a guy who though he finished 15th, he was the 11th most most consistent. He didn't really give you a lot of boom games. He gave you one really that was a top five performance. But Landry, somebody who, if you stole him as your wide receiver too, he probably did really well in. In your league, especially in PPR leagues.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, that was going to be. My point is when you're talking ppr, it's a completely different thing for Jarvis landry. But the 165 targets for landry, I'm not sure that will repeat itself. You have a completely new coaching staff. I like Adam Gaze, so it's sure it's possible he could do that, but I would look for those targets to come down, which means that Jarvis Landry's just overall, just all of his numbers, all of his stats will come down because he's that because of who he is as a receiver, a possession.

[Jason Moore]

Matt. Matt Harmon, good friend of the show here, the author of Reception Perception, put out an article recently talking about which was surprising, I think, to what our normal thoughts were on offenses that basically struggled when their leading receiver was out of the slot. We think about, you know, the New England and those types that succeed. But what we forget there is that Edelman wasn't actually in the slot.

[Mike Wright]

The majority of the time he played outside a lot.

[Jason Moore]

He did. And so with a new offensive coordinate with a whole new coaching staff coming in, I agree with you that it's a little worrisome with you've got devonte Parker there. That looked like he can be what they drafted him to be. So for Jarvis Landry, he could become the second wide receiver on the team as he should be working out of the slot. In which case, you know, is he going to get another 110 receptions or is it going to be 90, 100 and you know, numbers come down a little bit.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. I think that's a really good take. I think Landry's somebody who over the second half of the season you can see he alternated double digit and single digit games in half point ppr. He wasn't as consistent as the first half of the season. Now you throw some question marks into the mix. I don't think he's going to fall to the point of being in great value. So I think that, I think that's a good take. I think Parker's got to be the lead dog there for that offense to succeed and they need to be more consistent running the ball. And they ran through the air to use a Jason phrase with Landry very often.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And they force fed him a lot. So any. Did you have a final thought on him?

[Jason Moore]

The only other thought I have is that, you know, I'm not, I'm not sold on Tannehill as a quarterback and I feel like Tannehill is laser locked onto Landry and I don't know if a coaching staff can change that. That's my only thought. They should. Right. They should be going to devonte Parker. But will they be able to with Tannehill?

[Andy Holloway]

All right. At number 16 we have a guy that I would draft over, Landry Hearns that I would draft over.

[Jason Moore]

He's going to be sorry.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's Sammy Watkins because here's a guy with margin and here's what I mean. He had a season, he finished 16th in fantasy. He only played 13 games, 95 targets, 60 receptions, over a thousand yards and nine touchdowns. He ended up as the 12th most consistent wide receiver. But man, does he have margin. To me he is built and was drafted as and has the talent to be better than these numbers.

[Jason Moore]

Sammy Watkins was going to be my breakout player in that way too. Early breakout. The problem is he's already 16th, but it's, it's very similar to DeAndre Hopkins last year. DeAndre Hopkins was a wide receiver too last year. But he broke out this year. Sammy Watkins should be a. An absolute top wide receiver for many years of his career in the NFL. Sammy Watkins, you saw once he was healthy, I mean, he missed some games with injury. You should have a little bit more consistency now. I mean, they didn't have Tyrod Taylor as the quarterback in the early. I mean, you didn't even know he was going to be the quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

So I have a question for you because you made a great point on Tuesday about DeAndre Hopkins and the change of that defense from the midway. Houston's defense was terrible. Hopkins numbers were through the roof. Look, we know what.

[Mike Wright]

I know where this is going.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, my point is that Rex wants to be Houston from the second half of the year. That's what he wants to be.

[Mike Wright]

That's not what his hiring has done.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you mean? Oh, Rob Ryan, his brother. Well, okay, but they still have. His brother is what, an assistant?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not the decorator. My point is not that they will succeed with the goal. It's very much a possibility. Rex Ryan has led many great defensive teams. There were some problems with Mario Williams and that defense struggled. I don't know if Watkins will get the opportunity to be what he can be. If that defense is shutting people down, if that defense is performing well, I can't help but think Watkins would be in the boat that you painted for Hopkins.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. Sure, I see that. I do love Mike's point about Rob Ryan. Has. Has Rob Ryan ever led a successful.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, he has.

[Jason Moore]

I. I don't. I just don't.

[Mike Wright]

I don't remember when.

[Jason Moore]

I don't. I don't remember.

[Mike Wright]

So he was, he was a Dallas before every.

[Andy Holloway]

I think the Saints were great with.

[Jason Moore]

Actually, you know what happens with.

[Andy Holloway]

Saints were great.

[Jason Moore]

This is something they. I believe when he changes teams, they do have a good football first year and then they. And then they regressed because before the Saints, Dallas, he was with Dallas and when he came, they had a good first year and then they fell off the mat.

[Andy Holloway]

His tenure is not long in these places, but he was. They were like a top five defense in New Orleans. Okay. But then obviously not last year. But let's not focus on Rob Ryan because that's not the.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

They want to be a defensive team. Rex Ryan is a defensive coach and they've succeeded before.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I still love Sammy Watkins. I think that the talent level is there and between weeks eight and 16, he was the number six wide receiver. He was ahead of Brandon Cooks, Julio Jones, AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin, Megatron, Johnson. He was finishing. He was ranked higher than these guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Which weeks?

[Mike Wright]

Weeks 8 to 16.

[Andy Holloway]

So the 16.

[Mike Wright]

The second half of the fantasy season. So he was a beast. And that was because of Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod is good. They have a quarterback. They've got it figured out despite their. Whoever said that was like the gm. Someone said, well, Tyrod's going to have to go out there and show it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

He's got to prove it.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, well, pretty sure we saw it. I mean, you had a good quarterback there for the first time in years.

[Jason Moore]

So.

[Mike Wright]

I like Watkins. I mean, a. Over the course of an entire half of football, he was dominant.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's a good point. They. They gave up a lot of points over the second half of the season. So I'll be curious to see. I'm not trying to throw a bunch of shade on him. He's a. He's a hyper top 12 talent for sure. I will take a guy just like him on a better offense.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, would you take Jordy Nelson coming back in Green Bay over Sammy Watkins?

[Jason Moore]

That's. Man, that's a great one. I think that I would. Jordan.

[Mike Wright]

We're talking redraft, of course. Right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you would have to be. If it was any kind of keeper or obviously or dynasty. Then Watkins. Okay, just clarify.

[Mike Wright]

But man, right now I might take Watkins.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. I. This next guy on my list. I have a little flashback for you guys, if you can bear with. I also find that drop to be just hilarious because it's such a disparity. Hardcore. And the. My guy. But my guy is number 17.

[Mike Wright]

The Dirty Cake.

[Andy Holloway]

The Dirty Cake himself, Jeremy Macklin. 15 games, 124 targets, 87 receptions. And wouldn't you believe it? Over a thousand yards receiving.

[Jason Moore]

Thousand. Barely eight. Barely.

[Andy Holloway]

Barely. Oh, okay.

[Jason Moore]

Barely over a thousand yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he had eight touchdowns. He was the 13th most consistent receiver. He wasn't a guy that blew up very often, but he was the first wide receiver read and a very reliable one for Alex Smith. He was somebody who we were fearful in the playoffs had destroyed his career again, but didn't. And so projecting forward Jeremy Macklin, one thing that's surprising about him is that he performed a lot better against tough defenses. He was matchup proof. You'd say. He had 16 points a game against top 16 defenses, as opposed to 10 against bottom 16. And we all know why that is. Because when they have. When they crush people, they just ran the ball.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Project him forward. I mean, projecting him forward.

[Jason Moore]

I See him as a higher end wide receiver too because you, you've got a guy that's reliable, you want generally speaking the number one on the team and he is. But it goes back to that defense, the Kansas City defense is too good for Jeremy Macklin to be able to have fantasy production that's going to win you weeks by himself on any kind of consistent basis. So happy with him as a, as a high end wide receiver to next year.

[Andy Holloway]

I pretty much agree with that take and where I would project him to be. I'd love to have him as my 2.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's. He's still probably going to be tougher, a tougher guy for me to draft because I'm looking at the, a lot of these names underneath him and I would like them on my team more than Macklin. I just, it's, it would not me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's very interesting because the guys on the list after him, a lot of them are twos as opposed to a one. Macklin's the one.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I understand that. There's just, is a.

[Andy Holloway]

You see, he's the number one receiver on a football team.

[Mike Wright]

I got that part of it.

[Andy Holloway]

Uh huh.

[Mike Wright]

It just is.

[Andy Holloway]

He's on an Alex Smith team.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's. That's what the problem is. Alex Smith.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so I'll be curious. We're going to ask you the question next five names of would you take him over Jeremy?

[Mike Wright]

And when I say of others, there's some guys on the list that I want more. It's not that I'm saying I'm throwing massive shade on Macklin saying he's bad and will be useless for fantasy. Just I know where he's going to be drafted or I making an assumption of where he's going to be drafted. Well, and what I paying that price. I'm not.

[Jason Moore]

What I took you to mean when you said looking at the guys below him. I took that to mean if those two guys were on the board, it's whatever round, third round, fourth round, fifth round, wherever Jeremy Macklin and let's say this next guy, Emmanuel Sanders, they're both on the board. They're the only two wide receivers out there who you take.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. That's how I'm taking Sanders there.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. So let's talk about Sanders. 15 games, 137 targets. He was somebody that was hyped up a lot before the season. He didn't really let you down in a, you know, bust type of capacity, but he certainly didn't give you and couldn't have given you another year of career highs. No, because generally you don't see that year after year.

[Jason Moore]

You know, one of the crazy things for me with him, he has been. Manuel Sanders has been a PPR monster over the last few years. That's what I've really loved about him. And the targets I felt like were. Were still pretty there to, you know, get up near. Somewhere near that 100 catch range. But he only finished with 76 receptions. I think there were four less targets than the year before and 25 less receptions. That's just weird. Is, you know, is that quarterback play? Is that all it is?

[Mike Wright]

That's Manning.

[Jason Moore]

And if it is, then you have to say that's not better next year.

[Mike Wright]

Depending on who the quarterback is, you mean?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I mean, in what situation is it going to be better? They bring in someone new. It's not going to be better. If Peyton Manning's back, is he going to be better a year older? And if Brock is there, is that better than what? I mean, I guess that's. Maybe he could prove to become better if Brock is back for a whole year. That's the only situation.

[Andy Holloway]

He really didn't put up big reception numbers with Brock, and it's a good point. He had 25 less receptions this year, three less touchdowns. This is kind of where I see.

[Mike Wright]

Him at the, in this 18 range.

[Andy Holloway]

In his, in his totals. I don't know if that'll break down to 18, 19, 15, whatever. But these type of numbers seem very repeatable to me. You know, six touchdowns from a guy his size makes sense to me. 75 receptions, a big role in the offense, a guy who makes big plays but isn't a wide receiver one.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I wouldn't draft him as a one, but if Brock Osweiler is back, I think that he can slightly improve the. I feel like the touchdowns can go up.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you must, because you take him over Jeremy Macklin, you know, it's crazy.

[Jason Moore]

To look at when you compare Jeremy Macklin and Emmanuel Sanders. Emmanuel Sanders, he had 13 more targets than Jeremy Macklin and 11 less receptions. And Emmanuel Sanders has very good hands.

[Andy Holloway]

I love the player.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

But trending wise, I mean, Jason makes a good point. It's not. I don't think it's going to be better. It's easy. I mean, you can say, okay, if Brock's back and they all figure it out, but it's hard to. For me to make that kind of a leap when I'm drafting somebody.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's, that's very. That's a very valid point. So maybe, maybe after this discussion I would go back to Macklin over Sanders.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, well, how about this next guy, number 19. I got a. I'm going to go from my guy to not my guy here. I was dead wrong on Michael Crabtree, who really impressed me on the field. And in fantasy 16 games, nine touchdowns, didn't quite get to 1,000 yards, but was really a valuable fantasy receiver. He had some inconsistency definitely towards the second half of the year. So I'm not excited about him for next year. But when you play 16 games and you put up 85 receptions, PPR leagues an offense that seems to be getting better with a young quarterback. I. There's a lot to like about him at the right value.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I like it. He got, he just got paid. He's finally healthy. He's on a. On a team with a growing quarterback and Derek Carr who's getting. We saw a.

[Andy Holloway]

He's almost seven foot now.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's like the Jolly Green Giant.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, must be. He'll be 8 foot by the time next season starts.

[Mike Wright]

If he keeps up with the green beans and the broccoli.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

He'll get there for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

My mom told me.

[Mike Wright]

I like, I like Crabtree moving into next year. I think that he can actually improve upon. Improve upon these numbers, the yardage, maybe the touchdowns. He had nine touchdowns. That's tied his career high. That's probably going to be right around the same range, plus or minus a couple. But I think the yardage can definitely go up with the, the improvement of Amari Cooper as well. I think that the, the way that team is built and with Latavius Murray being a capable threat out of the backfield, I just, I like Crabtree moving forward to finish again as a wide receiver too.

[Andy Holloway]

He was somebody who three times did not finish as even a wide receiver for this year. He had one top five performance. He was 31st. Inconsistency. It's an interesting discussion. I don't. You know, we talked about Brandon Marshall and Decker yesterday and how you can't really, you know, you can't over COVID Marshall because Decker will eat you alive. Right. Because his talent levels up up there. This is kind of like, I think in on both sides, Crabtree and Cooper kind of like Junior, right? Like, yeah, Marshall Jr. That's fair. Decker Jr. Where some of that. I mean, you see the consistency against the top 16 and bottom 16 defenses. About the same amount of points per game, which is what you saw from Hearns. You Know, the second receiver just kind of gets his target.

[Jason Moore]

He's going to do what he does regardless of the matchup. And the problem with me is I just don't think Michael Crabtree does enough because while maybe the yards per catch can go up, that is actually kind of his role. You know, he is much more of.

[Andy Holloway]

The position that with Cooper ascending and.

[Jason Moore]

Generally that role doesn't find nine touchdowns. So for me, I like Cooper, but he gives me a Crabtree. He's okay. I would not probably draft him to finish even where he did this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Personally, I would not finish. I don't think he's gives me a.

[Jason Moore]

Little bit of hope for Victor Cruz just from, you know, Crabtree sucked for a long time coming off of injury, but it was a serious injury in the legs that kind of took years to come back from. Victor Cruz having been out this whole year, maybe he can come back and be relevant.

[Andy Holloway]

It's so interesting when these names. I mean, formerly fantasy superstar Victor Cruz. Wait, who is that again? It's like he's gone. All right, so number 20 is a name. If I could consult a soothsayer. Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

I'd love to know what in the world is in store for Jordan Matthews. Jordan Matthews finished 20th somehow, but that is well, well below projections for him.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

He was somebody who people thought was a bonafide Chip Kelly. Look, the discussion all off season was, you know, he always produces a wide receiver one. Except for the year he gets fired.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And Jordan Matthews, he was. He was in consideration. Consideration for my breakout.

[Jason Moore]

Way too early.

[Mike Wright]

Breakout. I still like the player Jordan Matthews. I think there is a lot of talent there and there's already talk of moving him to the outside, which is where I thought he should have been. This whole slot versus outsider or outside receiver.

[Jason Moore]

He's.

[Mike Wright]

He's 6 3.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And he. And I don't believe there was a player in the league over a certain amount of receptions that played in a higher percentage in the slot. It was like 96.3. He was a slot guy. So moving him to the outside definitely can be better. You know, he had some serious hands issues this year.

[Mike Wright]

That was. That was my next point too.

[Jason Moore]

Well, so you're saying that they could just go away?

[Mike Wright]

Not necessarily if they're going to go away, but I think that he, he just. After it was week one, I mean, he had that huge drop and you have to factor in the humanity of it, of it just got. I think it really, really got in his head and. Which allowed another one to Happen. So it just was this downward spiral. Gets a fresh, fresh reset off season, new coaching staff, a chance to start, you know, brand new.

[Andy Holloway]

I can. Peterson.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, brand new. And I just, I still believe in Jordan Matthews. The talent.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, sorry.

[Jason Moore]

Looking at his, his game log and seeing how they, how his numbers came about, now we know from the fact that he won, he did win the footy for this, right? The garbage man of the year of the year award. So having won the garbage man, we know a lot of it came in that time, but after his week eight by, he was much better the rest of the year. Much, much better. The beginning part of the year, from weeks three through seven, he never once finished with double digits.

[Andy Holloway]

Nelson Aguilar, does he get more involved next year in the west coast scheme and take away from Matthews or is he a better fantasy value than Matthews? What are you.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think Nelson Aguilar is a good wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

That's ridiculous. That's ridiculous.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's a hot take.

[Jason Moore]

I just don't think he's that.

[Andy Holloway]

How. You haven't seen anything. This is a devontae Freeman alert.

[Jason Moore]

Well, it could.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me hear it, let me hear it.

[Jason Moore]

No, I just. Nelson Aguilar, I'm not going to say he stinks.

[Andy Holloway]

Good. Because he doesn't. He's a great player. I think he's a very good player.

[Jason Moore]

So you expect big things from him next year?

[Andy Holloway]

I expect Nelson Aguilar to be a better draft value than Jordan Matthews.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, really?

[Andy Holloway]

There's no way to put that on the board, but absolutely I do.

[Mike Wright]

Well, the way. Let's, let's, let's break that down just a little bit. Matthews is going to plummet. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Why would he plummet compared to where.

[Mike Wright]

He was drafted last year?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, draft wise. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I think he'll be a sixth, seventh round pick around there. Would you guess or would he go higher? I mean, he did finish 20.

[Andy Holloway]

He would go. He'll probably go higher. Yeah, because he's the one on that team. The perception, right? Your ones go, your ones go earlier. But Aguilar, but where's Aguilar going to go?

[Jason Moore]

Aguilar had so many opportunities this year he played that.

[Andy Holloway]

I disagree completely. I could not more vehemently disagree with you. How did he have a million opportunities this year?

[Jason Moore]

He played the whole year as on the outside.

[Andy Holloway]

No, he did not. He did not play the whole year on the outside. When a guy has 23 receptions on a season, I don't think he got a lot of opportunity to play.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, so we agree at least on one thing. He had 23 receptions. What I'm saying, 40 targets, 44 targets. He was in the game enough to have nowhere near those numbers. Playing snaps, those type of things. And that's where I'm saying he must, he, he wasn't getting the separation. He wasn't performing. I mean, I just think for the amount of time he was on the field, he should have had better numbers.

[Andy Holloway]

I do not doubt that he had a disappointing year. There's no, there's not me disagreeing with you that he doesn't, he does play enough snaps to have done more. He, for some reason. My point is this. He just didn't seem to be like a part of what the offense was trying to do. If you play that much and you get 44 targets, I mean, you can blame the wide receiver, you could blame Sam Bradford, you can blame Chip Kelly, you can blame the routes he's running. I think he's a better fit for West Coast. I think that's what you're going to see with Doug Peterson. And so I think his numbers and the potential for him to be a Hearns like guy are very high. He's a, he's a top draft pick.

[Mike Wright]

What about a Mack?

[Andy Holloway]

I loved him in usc.

[Mike Wright]

A Macklin type guy because that's. He's getting the Kansas City.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Mike Wright]

Offensive coordinator.

[Andy Holloway]

No, not a Macklin type guy because he's not going to be in that Macklin type role. He's going to be in a role like I think him in Crabtree could have very comparable numbers next year. Which. No, I'm saying Aguilar. I think Aguilar could be in the. I just think he has the ability and talent. I liked him in college. He didn't get opportunities last year with whatever involvement problems he had. He had a bad year. No doubt about it. Bad, bad year. He's not the only one on that team. Jordan Matthews had a bad, bad year. DeMarco Murray had a bad, bad year.

[Mike Wright]

85 for 997 and eight touchdowns. I wouldn't call a bad, bad year.

[Andy Holloway]

I think the, if you watched him, he was as up and down and terrible as you could be.

[Mike Wright]

Just saying the drop final stats.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but that anybody could do that as the one on any team.

[Mike Wright]

Not anybody.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you mean not anybody?

[Mike Wright]

If they were.

[Andy Holloway]

If you're the one on any team, you're going to put up 1,000 yards and he didn't even get there. You don't think so? I mean, look at it find the last team that, I mean, other than Kansas City's historical situation, they were breaking the records for the thousand yards. Dwayne Bowe. How good is Dwayne Bowe?

[Mike Wright]

That was a completely different offense.

[Jason Moore]

But just.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, who. Did anyone on the Panthers have over a thousand yards? Who was the number one receiver on the Panthers?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, just saying that.

[Jason Moore]

No, I don't, I don't think anybody there had a thousand yards.

[Mike Wright]

What about.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm saying it's pretty easy to do. That's all I'm saying. I don't know how many receivers per year do it, but it's not that hard to do. And he's the number one target. And how much garbage time poured into his statistics? That team was down by a ton. He didn't do a lot of meaningful things on the field. Matthews, would you agree with me, other than dropping the football, how many drops.

[Mike Wright]

Did he actually have? If you're talking about drops so much.

[Andy Holloway]

He talks about drops so much. Well, Philadelphia media talks about drops.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not disagreeing. He was dropping the ball a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

But I think he led the league number one.

[Jason Moore]

Wide receivers I don't think are guaranteed to have 1,000 yards. I mean Green Bay, Green Bay did not have a thousand yard receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

They didn't have a leading receiver. They rotated that position throughout the year.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, so, so they, so, so not every team has a number one then.

[Andy Holloway]

If you give a guy a number one in 16 games, I think it's pretty easy. What is that average 60 yards for their leading receiver?

[Jason Moore]

Well, Nelson Aguilar is not going to be a clear cut number one next year.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not the number one at all.

[Jason Moore]

I know.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not talking about him. I'm talking about Jordan Matthews. That's what we've been talking about, Jordan Matthews.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just saying that.

[Andy Holloway]

We were just talking about his numbers.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just saying that I don't think.

[Andy Holloway]

Eagles led the league in drops.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think you're accurate in saying that the number one wide receiver for a team you, you know, commonly gets like it's easy to get a thousand and we'll disagree.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's very easy.

[Jason Moore]

We'll have to, I think, investigate this afterwards.

[Andy Holloway]

So percentage wise, what is yours? What does that statement mean, the number one? If. So if you start there as the number one receiver, how often do you finish with a thousand? Is that what you're saying?

[Jason Moore]

I'm saying if you take the league and you look at the 32 teams, we'll have to look and see, you know, how many teams didn't have a thousand yard receiver.

[Mike Wright]

And this is an interesting case study. And so I'm looking at drops here. Number one, most drops in the league.

[Jason Moore]

Or for wide receiver Amari Cooper.

[Mike Wright]

Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, demarius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Martavis Devonte, Stinky Adams, Nasty Nate Washington. So I mean there's a lot of guys who had more drops than Matthews.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I think the reason Matthews never.

[Andy Holloway]

Dropped the over the top down by four touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

He had high profile, high profile drops.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he's come out repeatedly. This is not like a mirage. He's come out repeatedly this year. It's horribly embarrassing about his drops. That's his own words. You know, it's been something we've seen and gone what he did have more.

[Jason Moore]

Drops than Leonard Hankerson though, which is impressive because Leonard.

[Andy Holloway]

Hank, you're getting into the discussion of drops per target. You know, that's really the number that matters. It's not total drops that matters. It's kind of like the number that matters is how often you're being targeted. Cooper was targeted a lot.

[Mike Wright]

You know, Cooper had three more targets then than Jordan Matthews.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, there you go.

[Mike Wright]

And a lot more drops. Yep, Amari Cooper stinks.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's talk about John Brown. Next guy on the list. Getting here close to home in Arizona, you've got the three headed wide receiver monster in Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd this year. John Brown had, excuse me, over 100 get choked up. About finished with a thousand yards, right Andy? Seven touchdowns, 65 receptions. As far as how he did against the top half, in the bottom half he did a little bit better, performed a little better against the bottom half of, of passing defenses. About two points per game. Better not, not a monstrous difference. And he had seven times where he was in the top 25, three times where he was not a wide receiver, four kind of had in my view an up and down season that didn't allow you to bank on playing him.

[Mike Wright]

So coming down the stretch, John Brown, after his, he got hurt and then what, what did we. He had the game with the zero, right. And but then after that he was, he was great down the stretch and he was actually very, very, very good for, for the majority of the year. He just has those couple years, a couple games of the zero with the, the, the injury problem. And there was also a shift in the offense once Michael Floyd got his hand put back together. But as far as moving forward to Next year. I think John Brown is a. He might become a value.

[Andy Holloway]

John Brown's an interesting guy.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I'm saying. Like he might be.

[Andy Holloway]

He's Seven touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

He's too early to call, but he.

[Andy Holloway]

Thousand yards.

[Mike Wright]

It depends on what will happen with the Michael Floyd hype over the off season.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a lot of desean Jackson similarities in these stat lines. Not necessarily in the up and down. He's a little more consistent, but I mean 1,000 yards on only 65 receptions.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's a big play guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Seven touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

What I liked about John Brown though is two less targets, but 17 more receptions and two more touchdowns. So it just.

[Andy Holloway]

Then who.

[Mike Wright]

Then himself.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, okay.

[Mike Wright]

From me.

[Andy Holloway]

Sorry, Context. Yeah, context.

[Mike Wright]

I apologize. So from last year, from his, from his rookie year. So it just, it wasn't an inflation of where you have to pump the brakes completely and say, well, this is going to regress massively next year. Just showed a nice steady improvement in the receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

I agree. So let's talk about Ty Hilton, somebody who still managed to finish in the top 24 despite the Andrew Luck situation. So projecting him forward, what I want to know is, is he going to be a draft value because of the numbers put up or is he going to be overhyped because of Luck turning? Where does Hilton belong in the discussion? Because obviously not the normal Hilton type of year. He got paid. He's great, in my opinion. Like, I think the talent wise and who he is is great. But will Luck and him put it back together for a top 12 finish next year?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think they will. The question is going to be whether or not for top 12. I think he's going to be right, right around that 12, whether he finishes as a. As the best wide receiver two or, you know, the worst wide receiver one. That's, that's where I expect him to finish around. And I actually do think he has the talent and opportunity to be able to get up near that top five, you know, should the chips fall. Right. Next year with, with the Colts.

[Andy Holloway]

He's just never been a touchdown guy. That's been the problem he's had these seasons. You know, last year, seven touchdowns. I think he had one game with three. So he puts up big yardage numbers over 1300 yards. You didn't see a regression in yards per catch this year. You just kind of saw a regression in total receptions despite the fact targets were up. So that says quarterback play.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And the truth is right now this is absurdly early to look at average draft Positions, but. Right.

[Mike Wright]

No, it's not.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what we should title all February, March and April shows.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

The absurdly early season.

[Jason Moore]

No, but right now he is going as the 23rd wide receiver. And so if that stays. If he stays around that range and I goes 18th, 19th, I'm all over that. I'm going, yeah, I will. I will jump on that and love that. You know who's going ahead of him right now? Josh Gordon.

[Andy Holloway]

I would drop Josh Gordon ahead of me.

[Jason Moore]

Would you? Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I would.

[Jason Moore]

Josh Gordon is going to be a fun one. He was almost.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you remember Josh Gordon?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Well, I was going to have him be my breakout, but then he's already clearly broken.

[Andy Holloway]

He was the number one receiver, but it's a pretty good breakout. But.

[Jason Moore]

But as far as like coming.

[Mike Wright]

No, he didn't do anything this year.

[Jason Moore]

Well, yeah, he didn't do anything. So.

[Andy Holloway]

Come back player.

[Jason Moore]

Come back player. So. Well, I didn't. I didn't use.

[Mike Wright]

He's not even reinstated.

[Andy Holloway]

He has submitted a petition yet. They had 60 days of response.

[Jason Moore]

I think he'll be back.

[Andy Holloway]

I am in the Josh Gordon camp, right?

[Jason Moore]

Well, you've always loved Josh Gordon.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, there are certain players. Look, we all get reads on people. Johnny Manziel, you have trouble, you get a read on it. The guy doesn't get it. I mean, that's the truth. He doesn't get it. Josh Gordon seems to get it. To me, that's my perception. I'm one human being.

[Mike Wright]

Which part of his multiple suspensions tells you he gets it?

[Andy Holloway]

None of that. It's not in the amount of his suspensions. It's in the player. When you see him on an interview and you hear him talk about it, he wrote on, you know, he wrote an article afterwards himself about the suspension, about the situation, and it came across like somebody who gave a crap.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You know, and he was.

[Andy Holloway]

And I could be proven wrong very easily with another suspension. But I'm gonna. I'm gonna say I'm on his side. I'm on his side. I take him over Sammy Watkins.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, wow.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So there you go.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. So let's talk about the last two. Everybody knows their names. They're the most obvious fantasy wide receivers that we all predicted going into the season. And that's James Jones and Tavon Austin.

[Jason Moore]

Tavon Austin is that name that we spoke about in the beginning of the show. That is mind blowing to me that he is.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, step one is to play 16 games for these lists. It really is. He did it running back list look the same But James Jones, let's talk about him first because he had 100 targets in a season where his career we thought was done.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's. It was a nutty and great time for James Jones.

[Andy Holloway]

A what?

[Jason Moore]

A nutty and great time for James Jones. Bad time for the packers comes in. You know, here's the truth going forward, I think we can't project James Jones to be much of anything. Even if he's back with the Packers.

[Mike Wright]

He's probably not even a Packer.

[Jason Moore]

No, I know he's probably not a Packer.

[Andy Holloway]

They like him in the locker room though. Yeah, he could be back as a three like he, he's. Let's all be honest.

[Mike Wright]

He can be the event 3. He throws a great party.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Locker room slipping slides.

[Jason Moore]

He is the example. I won't drown.

[Andy Holloway]

Name a better receiver from Green Bay this year.

[Mike Wright]

You can't a more.

[Andy Holloway]

There was nobody more productive than James Jones. He was the, he was the go to guy. I mean it's not like Devonte Adams did it. Richard Rodgers didn't do it. Randall Cobb didn't do it. Randall Cobb is where, where did he finish? 28th. Here's Jason sitting back in his seat because he's going. How did Randall Cobb know?

[Jason Moore]

You know, the truth is that really upset me what you just said, because I thought about it and I really wanted to argue but there's no argument. He was the best wide receiver for the Green Bay packers for sure. And that is disgusting. He was cut from two other teams. It's what was going on. Wide receivers. Come on. Come on, Jordy.

[Mike Wright]

The first seven games James Jones was scoring about 14 and a half a game. The last nine under seven.

[Andy Holloway]

But here's the weird thing. He had these numbers finished where he did five games. Zero or one reception. Five. I mean this was somebody who surprised everybody to start the year. But then he had a negative point game. He had a zero. He had another gooser. He had another one catch game in the second half. But yeah, he's done.

[Jason Moore]

He's irrelevant for next year. I believe that, you know, if Jordy's back and Randall Cobb is there, even if James Jones comes back and he's that third guy on. You know, we saw him do well years before but I'm. I wouldn't draft him with the last pick in my draft.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so Tavon Austin, another guy who had multiple one reception games but got the ball in the running game consistently. Look, he had six rushing attempts, I believe in week let's see here. Six rushing attempts in week 17, the weeks before. 3, 442-41383. He gets the ball in the. You know, in the Percy Harvin esque into rounds. Yeah, I've never seen something with it.

[Jason Moore]

I've never seen a wide receiver two. Right. He's a wide receiver two. He's the 24th. So in a 12 team league he is a wide receiver two that finished the year with 473 receiving yards. That's what.

[Mike Wright]

This is what I want people to do because I'm taking a look at our league of record of the top. We can go all the way to 28. The top 28 wide receivers there is that we finished the year. There was one receiver who was not owned on a five bench spot and.

[Andy Holloway]

It was Tavon Austin.

[Mike Wright]

Tavon Austin.

[Andy Holloway]

52 attempts.

[Mike Wright]

Look, go look at your league and see if people. Somebody owns Tavon.

[Andy Holloway]

But when you put all the numbers together, he was a weapon. He had nine touchdowns total touchdowns, I believe. Yeah. Five through the air, four on the ground.

[Mike Wright]

Ridiculous.

[Andy Holloway]

So is he just annoying to own or is he somebody that we really just missed? Missed Projecting him higher.

[Jason Moore]

Look, he was a. He's a very talented athlete. He is so fast. I believe that, you know. Is he still. He's still catching punt returns. Oh, he's a returner. Yeah, I think he is. If that's the case and you're in one of those leagues that clearly gives a bump up but 24 years old going forward, you know, if they're figuring out how to use him and get him involved, he's a guy that should be owned, should be drafted and has potential to do this. Because it's not just he got lucky. It was they worked him into the game and he used his skill set to do well. The hard part with him is it's just so difficult to rely on Gadget Player starting him.

[Andy Holloway]

I'd love him as that. You know, he's the guy this year that you could flex if you needed to. Yeah, bi week flex. I didn't want him as a two.

[Jason Moore]

Right. No. No way would I have played him as a two. He had too many games. He had six games this year where he wasn't even a wide receiver. 4. So you just couldn't rely on him and putting him clicking that save button. Right. I got. I got my lineup and I think I'm going Tavon Austin. He's in there. My flex. Clicking that save button is gonna be very hard to do.

[Andy Holloway]

But because of that is he going to be available very late in draft? Sure.

[Mike Wright]

Am I drafting him? No.

[Jason Moore]

You know, the truth is I don't think he's going to be available as late as he should because people are going to look back and see he was the, you know, a wide receiver, too. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Good luck.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I probably won't be. Good luck.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so 25 was Amari Cooper. 26 was Ted Ginn. 27 was Mike Evans. Obviously, we like Mike Evans higher than 27 next year. Randall Cobb, Reuben Randall, Travis Benjamin, Kamara Akin, and the list goes on from there. But is there somebody that wants to talk about before we close out?

[Mike Wright]

The one guy I want to talk about, good friend of the show, Marty McBride. Martavis Bryant. His rookie year, he was a fantasy sensation. It was what he's doing. Oh, it's. It is not sustainable. He cannot continue to do this. He played one more game this year because of the. Of the suspension. He had 43 targets, 43 more targets in one game, and 216 yards more than the last season. This speaks to me that Martavis Bryant is a huge part of their offense. He is a freak. I'm choosing to overlook the, the down games that he. That he had. And I think that he is a guy that I want for sure on my team next year.

[Andy Holloway]

With Martavis Bryant, it comes down to maturity. You saw whether it was the suspension that started the year or the, the kind of inconsistency, the feedback from Big Ben, the challenge by Big Ben, he wasn't consistent in his effort and performance on the field. You saw his yards per catch go down from the astronomical 21 to 15. Part of that is because you saw him get involved in the screen game, like the old demarius Thomas style, quick screens to the outside. And you saw him do incredible things with the ball in his hands. He is a weapon. It was a tumultuous year for all Steelers offensive players. Even though Brown put up the big numbers, you still had Big Ben injured. So I like Brian. I don't know how much I like him yet.

[Mike Wright]

I like him a good bit. And the last thing, I play more.

[Andy Holloway]

Than 11 games, friend.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'll take that. And then the last thing I wanted to touch on just because we were getting research. My favorite stat that I uncovered going through these guys was Golden Tate. Golden Tate this year compared to last year, was only down nine receptions. Nine receptions, but over 500 yards less.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, my.

[Jason Moore]

Used in a different role.

[Mike Wright]

Well, that's because that's just a fun stat.

[Andy Holloway]

That is a fun Stab.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think it's just the difference of Calvin was on the field so they weren't using him downfield versus four.

[Mike Wright]

He was the yards after catch man last year.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's it for today's show. I want to give you guys a bit of a taste of what's coming this offseason. We're going to go through so many different. We'll have so many different shows. Talking about what Jason mentioned the offseason coaching changes, the things that impact offenses. You've got all the free agent quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends that we'll talk about. We'll have our early sleepers, early breakouts. We'll have our early rankings. We'll have rookie overview and draft preview for the NFL draft coming up. And we'll have lots of episodes about tips and tricks for fantasy football. We like doing those kind of episodes where we're kind of summarizing a lot of the strategies that get people fantasy football titles in your league of records. So we'll have a lot more than that as well. But I just wanted to give you guys a little bit of a taste of what's to come. Be sure to check out the website, the fantasy footballers.com if you want to help support the show. We're an independent podcast. You can check out jointhefoot.com you guys have any parting words for our friends?

[Mike Wright]

Nope, I got nothing. Nothing fun.

[Andy Holloway]

Tayvon Austin in the first round.

[Jason Moore]

Don't do it.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't do it.

[Mike Wright]

Tayvon Austin.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the kind of hot tips we got.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Don't draft him. Don't.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, come on.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a nice guy.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.