Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Episode: Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - ADP Risers & Fallers + Megatron Rumors
Release Date: July 13, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers return to their Play Draft Studios to delve deep into the latest trends affecting fantasy drafts for the 2017 NFL season. In this episode, the trio focuses on Average Draft Position (ADP) risers and fallers, investigates recent rumors surrounding Calvin Johnson (Megatron), and provides valuable insights to help listeners optimize their draft strategies.

Megatron Rumors

The podcast kicks off with a discussion about the rumors surrounding Calvin Johnson, popularly known as Megatron. The hosts examine the likelihood of Johnson returning to the NFL and its implications for fantasy football.

• Jason Moore [06:12]: "Calvin Johnson says he would have loved or would love to play with Derek Carr."
• Andy Holloway [07:29]: "He hadn't faded at all physically. I mean, I don't think we watched his game get any worse whatsoever."

Key Points:

• Calvin Johnson retired due to a restrictive contract and lack of future prospects with the Detroit Lions.
• The Lions still hold his rights, but Mike Wright expresses skepticism about his return: "I'm sitting at a point,0002%."
• The consensus among the hosts is that Johnson's return is highly unlikely, advising listeners against spending significant draft capital on him.

ADP Risers & Fallers

The core of the episode centers on the movement of player ADPs based on recent mock drafts and offseason performances. The hosts analyze several key players who have either risen or fallen in draft rankings.

ADP Fallers

1. Eddie Lacy (RB)

   • Andy Holloway [12:37]: "Eddie Lacy is the type of player that has all the talent, the possibility for opportunity."
   • Jason Moore [14:13]: "Every single year of his career, his numbers have decreased. I just don't know how much of a role he's going to play."

   Analysis:

   • Lacy has dropped 16 picks, moving from RB25 to RB7 in the fifth round.
   • Concerns revolve around his split usage with Thomas Rawls and his declining production over the years.
   • Despite the drop, Andy believes Lacy still holds RB3 upside with minimal risk.

2. Latavius Murray (RB)

   • Mike Wright [27:19]: "The only guy I would actually draft would be Cook."

   Analysis:

   • Murray has fallen 21 picks, now being drafted in the 12th pick of the seventh round.
   • The drop is attributed to uncertainties surrounding his role and competition within the team.
   • Mike Wright and Andy Holloway express reservations about Murray's potential compared to rising stars like Dalvin Cook.

3. DeSean Jackson (WR)

   • Jason Moore [41:17]: "At 7:11, is it crazy not to take a shot on Jackson?"

   Analysis:

   • Jackson has declined 8 picks, now placed as WR34.
   • Despite the drop, Mike Wright endorses Jackson for his big-play potential, making him a valuable flex option despite inconsistencies.

ADP Risers

1. Mike Gillislee (RB)

   • Jason Moore [18:40]: "What do you think?"
   • Andy Holloway [20:41]: "Which it just... All right, ADP risers and fallers, let's check in."

   Analysis:

   • Gillislee has surged 20 picks, positioning him as RB24.
   • The Patriots' offense is gaining confidence, making Gillislee a promising asset despite competition from Rex Burkhead and James White.
   • Mike Wright appreciates Gillislee's unique role and potential to excel in the Patriots' scheme.

2. Paul Perkins (RB)

   • Jason Moore [24:22]: "Just got a health insurance quote from Paul Perkins."

   Analysis:

   • Perkins, rebranded humorously as Smash Jackson, has moved up from the 10th pick in the sixth round to near the fourth round fringe.
   • His increased role in New York's offense presents a valuable opportunity for fantasy owners.

3. Dalvin Cook (RB)

   • Jason Moore [27:19]: "Dalvin Cook is soaking up the reps."

   Analysis:

   • Cook has risen two whole rounds, now being drafted in the eighth pick of the fifth round.
   • Despite concerns about his performance against a potentially poor offensive line, his high college production and role as a starting RB make him a sought-after player.

Player-Specific Analysis

Beyond the primary ADP movements, the hosts provide detailed evaluations of other players experiencing significant changes in their draft positions.

• Joe Mixon (RB) vs. Jeremy Hill (RB):

  • Andy Holloway [30:35]: "There's no way I'm taking him as the 15th running back off the board because you're basically drafting him up near where his ceiling is now."
  • Jason Moore [30:55]: "In best ball leagues, I'm taking him in the fifth, sixth round."

  Analysis:

  • Mixon has surged 23 picks, now ranked RB15, while Jeremy Hill has fallen 21 picks to RB47.
  • The hosts express skepticism about Mixon's high ranking due to shared usage with Hill and Gio Bernard.

• Tyrell Williams (WR):

  • Andy Holloway [37:19]: "He's probably one of the most common guys that sticks out to me."

  Analysis:

  • Williams has jumped 26 picks, now being drafted in the sixth round as WR29.
  • His consistent performance last season and potential in a revamped offense elevate his fantasy value.

• Corey Coleman (WR):

  • Andy Holloway [34:57]: "His upside is identical to what it was before."

  Analysis:

  • Coleman has fallen 16 picks, currently ranked WR10.
  • Despite injuries, his high ceiling as a top-tier wide receiver makes him a worthwhile risk in the 10th round.

Draft Strategies

The hosts share their preferred strategies to navigate the evolving draft landscape effectively.

• Andy Holloway: Emphasizes tier-based drafting, grouping players of similar value to avoid reaching and ensure optimal value at each pick.

  • Andy [46:46]: "Group the players that are of the same tier. This allows you to take the best available and not miss out."

• Mike Wright: Advocates for a balanced approach, akin to a healthy diet, ensuring a mix of running backs and wide receivers without neglecting any position.

  • Mike [46:54]: "It's gotta be balanced. I don't do zero anything."

• Jason Moore: Reflects on past mistakes to highlight the importance of flexibility and avoiding rigid positional targeting during drafts.

  • Jason [48:17]: Shares his regret over overcommitting to running backs early and missing out on valuable wide receivers like Calvin Johnson.

Mailbag Q&A

The episode concludes with listener questions, where the hosts offer personalized advice:

1. Favorite Draft Strategy:

   • Andy Holloway: Reiterates tier-based drafting as a format-proof method that maximizes value.
   • Mike Wright: Stresses the importance of a balanced roster without zeroing in on any single position.

2. Dynasty Startup Drafting:

   • Andy & Jason: Acknowledge the complexity of dynasty drafts and the variability in top pick consensus.
   • Mike Wright: Suggests players like Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Ezekiel Elliott, Julio Jones, David Johnson, and Michael Thomas as potential top picks in a dynasty context.

3. Preseason Game Importance:

   • Jason Moore: Highlights the third preseason game as crucial for evaluating players entering the regular season.
   • Andy Holloway & Mike Wright: Emphasize looking beyond stat lines to assess player roles and potential breakout performances.

Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers provide a comprehensive analysis of the current fantasy landscape, focusing on ADP movements and player evaluations essential for a successful draft. By leveraging tier-based drafting and maintaining a balanced roster, listeners can enhance their strategic approach to winning their leagues. The episode wraps up with actionable advice and engagement through the mailbag segment, reinforcing the podcast's commitment to supporting its fantasy football community.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway [12:37]: "Eddie Lacy is the type of player that has all the talent, the possibility for opportunity."
• Jason Moore [14:13]: "Every single year of his career, his numbers have decreased. I just don't know how much of a role he's going to play."
• Mike Wright [27:19]: "The only guy I would actually draft would be Cook."
• Jason Moore [34:38]: "Corey Coleman misses basically for all intents and purposes his entire rookie year."
• Andy Holloway [37:19]: "He's probably one of the most common guys that sticks out to me."

For more insights and updates, visit The Fantasy Footballers and stay connected on Twitter @theFFballers.