Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early RB Rankings Part 1

Summary

Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early RB Rankings Part 1

Release Date: March 28, 2017

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Introduction

In the March 28, 2017 episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into the early rankings of running backs (RBs) for the upcoming 2017 fantasy football season. The episode focuses on providing comprehensive analysis, discussing player performances, potential risks, and projecting future outputs to help listeners make informed draft decisions.

Key Discussions

Raiders' Move to Las Vegas & Marshawn Lynch Rumors

The hosts begin by addressing major NFL news, notably the Oakland Raiders' relocation to Las Vegas. This move sparks speculation about Marshawn Lynch's potential return to the league.

• Andy Holloway poses the question: "Does the move to Las Vegas and the confirmation of the Raiders relocating affect the rumors surrounding Marshawn Lynch's comeback?" [05:01]

• Jason Moore expresses skepticism, lowering his probability from 40% to 15%, stating, "Marshawn Lynch has been in Canada and this does not seem to be a priority." [07:00]

• Mike Wright remains doubtful, maintaining his low probability estimate at approximately 0.5%.

Josh Gordon's Reinstatement

The conversation shifts to Josh Gordon, who has applied for reinstatement to the NFL after serving a suspension.

• Andy Holloway highlights Gordon's improved physical condition, "Josh Gordon is looking very fit and has applied for reinstatement." [08:37]

• Jason Moore remains cautious, emphasizing Gordon's history: "He looks muscular, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's ready to run." [09:16]

• Ultimately, the consensus is that Gordon is not likely to impact the 2017 fantasy season significantly.

Kelvin Benjamin & DeMarco Murray Updates

The hosts discuss Kelvin Benjamin's contract extension with the Panthers and DeMarco Murray's performance with the Titans.

• Andy Holloway notes Benjamin's high upside despite last season’s inconsistencies, "With Kelvin Benjamin's size, he's an always-present touchdown threat inside the 20." [09:50]

• DeMarco Murray is praised for his reliability and versatility, serving as a critical component of the Titans' offense. Jason Moore underscores Murray's dual-threat nature: "He is an excellent, top pass-catching running back." [35:55]

Early Running Back Rankings

The core of the episode revolves around the hosts' consensus rankings for the top 10 running backs. Each ranked player is analyzed for their past performance, current team dynamics, and potential future output.

1. Le'Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Le'Veon Bell tops the rankings due to his exceptional performance when on the field.

• Andy Holloway states, "Le'Veon Bell is the GOAT when it comes to running backs. His average of 161.6 yards from scrimmage per game in 2016 is the second-best in history." [20:40]

• Jason Moore adds, "He had more yards on the ground than David Johnson despite playing four fewer games." [18:39]

• Mike Wright praises Bell's reliability, noting, "He doesn't need outrageous rushing numbers because his reception totals are so high." [20:35]

Pros:

• High yardage from scrimmage.
• Dual-threat as a runner and receiver.
• Consistent performance when active.

Cons:

• Injury history and missed games.
• Uncertainty regarding long-term contract status.

2. David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals)

David Johnson secures the second spot with his impressive all-around abilities.

• Andy Holloway highlights Johnson's versatility: "He can catch the ball, run the ball, and score, making him a key cog in the Arizona offense." [22:44]

• Jason Moore emphasizes his durability and efficiency: "He's matchup-proof and one of the safest running backs in dynasty leagues." [23:45]

Pros:

• Strong receiving skills complement his rushing.
• High touchdown potential.
• Reliable workload and durability.

Cons:

• Potential regression in touchdown numbers.
• Contract considerations for dynasty leagues.

3. Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys)

Ezekiel Elliott rounds out the top three as a newly drafted superstar.

• Mike Wright shares his historical perspective: "Players who have exceeded 1600 yards in their rookie year often regress, but Elliott is expected to have another monster season." [26:41]

• Jason Moore believes Elliott will maintain high touchdown numbers: "I expect Zeke to have the most touchdowns among these top three." [27:16]

Pros:

• Explosive rookie season performance.
• High touchdown upside.
• Integral part of a strong Dallas offense.

Cons:

• Historical tendency for regression after an outstanding rookie year.
• Team offensive dynamics may shift.

4. Le'Shawn McCoy (Buffalo Bills)

Le'Shawn McCoy is favored for his consistent production despite injury concerns.

• Jason Moore praises McCoy's career stability: "He's never been a bad running back and consistently serves as an RB1 or RB2." [30:02]

• Andy Holloway counters injury perceptions: "He's played most games each season and remains a reliable fantasy asset." [30:02]

Pros:

• Experienced and proven performer.
• High volume of touches.
• Reliable touchdown scorer.

Cons:

• Minor injury concerns.
• Usage may fluctuate with team dynamics.

5. DeMarco Murray (Tennessee Titans)

DeMarco Murray is lauded for his pivotal role in the Titans' offense.

• Jason Moore describes Murray as a dual-threat: "He catches passes and scores consistently, making him a great RB option." [35:55]

• Mike Wright emphasizes Murray's efficiency: "He is an excellent, top pass-catching running back who is always involved when needed." [36:07]

Pros:

• High usage in both rushing and receiving.
• Red zone threat with numerous touchdowns.
• Consistent performance with minimal injury risk.

Cons:

• Potential competition from Derrick Henry.
• Team offensive effectiveness can impact his output.

6. Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons)

Devonta Freeman impresses with his dominant 2016 performance.

• Jason Moore acknowledges Freeman's evolution: "Phil Freeman is the hardest working guy and sets the standard for work ethic in Atlanta." [38:44]

• Mike Wright raises concerns about offensive changes: "Kyle Shanahan is gone, and Patrick DeMarco is now with Shady in Buffalo, affecting Freeman's role." [39:24]

Pros:

• High receptions and versatile role.
• Young and durable.
• Integral part of a strong Falcons offense.

Cons:

• Potential regression in receiving targets.
• Offensive scheme changes may impact usage.

7. Jordan Howard (Chicago Bears)

Jordan Howard is recognized for his impressive rookie performance and potential future growth.

• Andy Holloway notes Howard's opportunity to become the face of the Bears' backfield: "He can be a top 10 back even on a struggling team." [42:11]

• Mike Wright is cautious about his red zone efficiency: "He had only six touchdowns, with most concentrated in a few games." [43:48]

Pros:

• High yards per carry.
• Volume of touches in a favorable offensive line.
• Potential to lead a new offensive direction.

Cons:

• Inconsistent touchdown production.
• Playing for a team with poor offensive support.

8. Mark Ingram (New Orleans Saints)

Mark Ingram surprises by breaking into the top 10 despite last season's unpredictability.

• Andy Holloway expresses frustration over Ingram's inconsistent usage: "He had five games with under 10 carries, hurting fantasy owners." [46:17]

• Jason Moore credits the Saints' strong run-blocking and potential removal of Tim Hightower: "New Orleans has one of the best run-blocking lines, making Ingram a valuable asset if Hightower is out." [48:36]

Pros:

• Strong team run-blocking.
• Efficient yards per carry.
• Increased role potential with Hightower's reduced presence.

Cons:

• Inconsistent usage leading to variable fantasy output.
• Dependence on team offensive strategies.

9. Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams)

Todd Gurley enters the rankings with renewed optimism despite last season's inefficiencies.

• Andy Holloway cites improvements in coaching and offensive line: "Sean McVay builds offenses around player strengths, and the offensive line has been strengthened." [53:09]

• Jason Moore believes Gurley will finish as a low-end RB1: "He had a strong start but struggled with efficiency over the last 24 games." [55:37]

Pros:

• High volume of touches.
• Talented and proven performer.
• Improved team dynamics with new coaching staff.

Cons:

• Previous inefficiency with high touches.
• Potential regression if coaching changes don't favor his running style.

10. Melvin Gordon (Cleveland Browns)

Melvin Gordon rounds out the top 10 with his consistent performance and role in the Browns' offense.

• Mike Wright prefers Gordon over Gurley, citing a better offensive environment: "Melvin Gordon is in a much better offensive setup compared to Gurley." [58:02]

• Jason Moore highlights Gordon's touchdown potential: "He went from no touchdowns in his rookie season to numerous now, making him a valuable RB." [59:07]

Pros:

• Consistent workhorse with high touch volume.
• Strong touchdown upside.
• Integral part of the Browns' offense.

Cons:

• Efficiency concerns similar to Gurley.
• Team offensive struggles could impact performance.

Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore on Le'Veon Bell: "Le'Veon Bell is the goat when it comes to running backs. He has more yards on the ground than David Johnson despite playing four fewer games." [18:39]

• Andy Holloway on David Johnson: "He can catch the ball, run the ball, and score, making him a key cog in the Arizona offense." [22:44]

• Mike Wright on Ezekiel Elliott: "In standard formats, he loses a little bit because he's not going to get the 80 receptions like DJ and Lev Bell." [27:16]

• Jason Moore on DeMarco Murray: "He is an excellent, top pass-catching running back who is always involved when needed." [36:07]

• Andy Holloway on Todd Gurley: "I think you're going to get hot fire, you're going to get lowside." [54:56]

Conclusions

The Fantasy Footballers Podcast provides a thorough and analytical approach to early RB rankings, emphasizing the importance of consistent performance, versatility, and team dynamics. While top players like Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson lead the pack with their dual-threat capabilities, reliable veterans like Le'Shawn McCoy and DeMarco Murray offer stability. Emerging stars such as Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard bring high upside, though they come with potential risks.

Listeners are encouraged to consider their league formats, team needs, and player-specific factors when utilizing these rankings for their drafts. The hosts stress the importance of equipping oneself with comprehensive information to make strategic decisions rather than simply following rankings.

What's Next

In subsequent episodes, the Fantasy Footballers plan to delve deeper into wide receiver rankings and continue their analysis of running backs, adjusting for new information and further data insights. They also promise to explore the impact of NFL team changes, such as the Raiders' relocation, on fantasy player values.

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For more insights and detailed rankings, listeners are encouraged to visit fantasyfootballers.com and join the community at jointhefoot.com. Follow the Fantasy Footballers on Twitter at @theffballers for the latest updates and discussions.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot Clan. Before we start today's show, I wanted to remind you about the Ultimate Draft Kit. Look, if you've been listening to the show for a long time, you know what we're all about. If you want to support the show, check out UltimateDraftKit.com this was a monster hit last year. It's the number one fantasy football draft kit for the 2017 season and it is jam packed. It's the only place that you can find 100 plus video profiles. Jason said it best. It's like a mini segment on each and every player of relevance in the fantasy football season. All of our Expert rankings, top 200 rankings, and what I've seen time and time again is how valuable those tier breakdowns are when you go into your draft. So jump in to ultimate draftkit.com right now. You can get it at the early bird pricing, the absolutely lowest price possible. So check it out. Ultimate DraftKit.com.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studio with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Orly Bird.

[Jason Moore]

Orly Bird.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that was Orly Bird pricing.

[Mike Wright]

My favorite part was the absolutely lowest.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah, Absolutely lowest. Is that what I said?

[Mike Wright]

I mean, that train was cruising.

[Andy Holloway]

I know.

[Mike Wright]

At maximum speed.

[Andy Holloway]

I know.

[Mike Wright]

And then you hit a penny on the track.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, you. What you don't want to do is you don't want to mid. Mid read, reflect on how good it's going. That's never a wise decision.

[Mike Wright]

The internal monologue, I'm smashing this.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm like, I'm really all over this Ultimate Draft kit read. And then absolutely greatest.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely the greatest.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that, you know, my pronunciation does not reflect on the draft kit.

[Mike Wright]

Nope.

[Andy Holloway]

Neither does Jason's grammar or Mike's beard. Well, maybe Mike's beard's in there a little bit.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, a little bit.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers. Andy. Andy Holloway, Michael Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Michael. Who is that?

[Andy Holloway]

And Jason Moore. We're here. Oh, it's a. It's going to be a great one. As you can tell, we have a great show today. We have the running back rankings, early consensus running back rankings. We're in it, boys. We're in it to win it. We're going through the top 10 of our consensus rankings. There was some spirited debate in the studio already yesterday as we discussed some of our individual rankings where we have guys. Obviously, the NFL draft will impact some of the running back rankings, but not as many of the top 10 to 20 guys as it will some of the role Players are sight, you know, a guy like Danny Woodhead or Kenneth Dixon, it'll affect a lot more than it will, I don't know. Todd Gurley is not going to be affected by the NFL draft fair. So we're going to talk about that today. There's a lot of news to get into and we also have, you know, the big news about the Raiders.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Heading to Las Vegas.

[Mike Wright]

They're moving on.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. We're going to get into all of that on the show today. If you want to follow us, do so on Twitter heffballers. Lots of good news and information. That's where we also post all of our most recent articles on the Website the Fantasy Footballers.com Check out our [e-mail] if you want to get involved, join some leagues, have a great 2017 season with some good people over there. There's what like 2,800 people [e-mail] just playing fantasy football, Just, just hanging out.

[Jason Moore]

Playing, living life, living the dream.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to thank both of these gentlemen. I, I can't believe I don't have it with me here. They, they purchased me a. What is that, like a life sized hoverboard?

[Mike Wright]

A replica. A one to one replica.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So that was for my birthday.

[Mike Wright]

It was his birthday on Sunday. We had to do something. Got him a hoverboard. That is real.

[Andy Holloway]

I also don't have a beard right now.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, apologies to all watching on YouTube, my family for having my child.

[Andy Holloway]

It's pretty funny. I turned 33 and I decided let's look 23, let's look 13.

[Jason Moore]

13 is a little bit more accurate.

[Andy Holloway]

It won't be. Oh, I'm getting the zoom from Brooks. I actually have had a beard so long that I have a small tan line where the beard is which is. Seems impossible for a man without a tan to have a tan line.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, it does.

[Andy Holloway]

But it's slight.

[Mike Wright]

It's slight.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, quick question of the day, guys. I want to know this.

[Mike Wright]

Without a tan.

[Andy Holloway]

Andy Holloway, the man without a tan.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's good.

[Andy Holloway]

Quick question of the day. With the Raiders moving to Las Vegas and we are going to talk about that move in the show after the show on YouTube as well. So right now I want to bend this towards a question I've had on Twitter a lot because it's fun to talk about speculation and rumors and Marshawn lynch and the potential behind that offensive line, etc. Etc. In fact, I believe on a recent review of our podcast on itunes, I was called a Marshawn lynch fanboy. And you were called an aging hippie.

[Mike Wright]

But an aging hippie who is afraid of small insects, who's afraid of small bugs.

[Andy Holloway]

So if Mark people have asked me, does the move to Las Vegas the confirmation of the vote that they will be moving to Las Vegas, is this bad or is this good for the Marshawn lynch rumors and the potential for him to come back? I feel like you can write this story both ways.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Most seem to have assumed it's bad because, okay, the team's not going to be in Oakland anymore. Maybe this means he doesn't support the ownership. He doesn't like that. The leaving and he doesn't want to be there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's an Oakland guy. And so the team is abandoning his city and he wants to come back. Or the thought. The narrative is that he wants to come back for his hometown team. And obviously, if they're no longer going to be that. That's. That's one issue. But on the flip side, you have the argument of saying, oh, okay, so this is like the last hurrah of the Oakland Raiders. They're going to be very good team. They're going to. Yeah, they're very good team. With Marshawn, I think they could compete for a championship. They would at least think they can, and it would be exciting for the city as, like, a last hurrah. So you can. You can. I agree. You could paint it both ways, which means it is neither.

[Andy Holloway]

So I just want to get a little poll real quick. Percentage chances that Marshawn lynch returns to football this year. I want to see if you guys have adjusted at all.

[Jason Moore]

I have.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, have you gone up or down?

[Andy Holloway]

Jason had been at 40%. I had been at 60 because, you know, fanboy. And Mike had been at a healthy 1/2 of 1%.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So, Mike, have you adjusted your 1/2 of 1%?

[Mike Wright]

I have not wavered.

[Andy Holloway]

You are at exactly 1/2 of 1%.

[Mike Wright]

Well, maybe down to 0.49.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so you've gone down at 1/100. Don't get into the math. Jason has adjusted, and I'm going to guess he's moved it down.

[Jason Moore]

I have moved it down.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's. I feel so bad for you guys.

[Jason Moore]

No, you were right. It just doesn't seem like Marshawn lynch has the full control here. He really, really does. If he wants to come back, he needs to file the paperwork to unretire. And as soon as that happens, all the pressure is then on Seattle. And so I understand Marshawn lynch has been in Canada. He's not here right now, but this does not seem to be priority. I move him down to a 15%.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a big drop from 40 to 15%. Unlike you, Jason, I am resistant to the ground. The groundswell of momentum and the media and all those things. I look beyond it. I'm really kind of above it.

[Jason Moore]

It's a hundred percent.

[Andy Holloway]

And so I'm going to. I'm going to maintain a 60% chance.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you're still staying over?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, Marshawn gave me a little. He retweeted a segment of Ice Cube talking about having him come back to Oakland. He retweeted it. He's not trolling his hometown fans.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

And so I still believe he's coming back and he's on my dynasty roster. So let's get into the news and notes.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Mr. Brooks, what is your percentage chance? I. I was at 40. I'm down to 25, not quite 15.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man. Don't want to jinx it.

[Andy Holloway]

Advanced analysis here at the fantasy footballers digging deep in the numbers, giving you the odds.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just so sad that you guys had to have that hope. I'm watching it just be sucked from your life.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I'm going to. I'm going to pull an audible here. At the first point of news, Josh Gordon's looking very fit.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, my goodness.

[Andy Holloway]

There was a tweet that went out. He's applied for reinstatement. And there's the decision to be made likely in April or May. Give me your percentage chance that Josh Gordon is on A. An NFL roster in 2017.

[Mike Wright]

Man.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you think?

[Jason Moore]

Because I'll stick with my 15%.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

You know, look, he. He's clearly in shape from that. From that picture now, that's. We got to be honest, though. I mean, he looks like a bodybuilder.

[Andy Holloway]

I thought it was a picture of the Dick's sporting Goods mannequins.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, it was, but it.

[Andy Holloway]

Was actually Josh Gordon.

[Jason Moore]

You could, you know, break a sledgehammer on his abs, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's in football shape and ready to run just because he's. I mean, clearly muscular right now.

[Andy Holloway]

He's working with Tim Montgomery, former Olympian.

[Jason Moore]

And speedster, but he hasn't been able to come back. He hasn't been able to be reinstated. He's had plenty of opportunities. He's failed each time. I wish him the best. I hope he comes back for the.

[Andy Holloway]

Fun for the novelty if he returns, if he's reinstated. Is he fantasy relevant in 2017?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Mike Wright]

Depends on landing spot for me.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Because he will not be in Cleveland. Cleveland will cut him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And someone else will have to want to take that chance.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, the Panthers will exercise Kelvin Benjamin's fifth year team option for 2018. Look, Kelvin Benjamin last year starting the year start, he was the number one wide receiver through the first three games, I believe. And he looked like he was on fire. Yes, it looked like a perfect situation. You know, we still were fresh off of Cam Newton's incredible passing year and then the wheels fell off and he wasn't a meaningful fantasy contributor. You couldn't rely on his production.

[Mike Wright]

So what is he who man, for fantasy purposes.

[Andy Holloway]

Is he an upside guy?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, he has upside. I mean he's. He's still gigantic.

[Andy Holloway]

He.

[Mike Wright]

You can't take that away from him.

[Andy Holloway]

No. 65 Brock Osweiler Level of wallpaper skills.

[Mike Wright]

I think that he's. He'll be a likely be a wide receiver too for me. But there's, there is absolutely that upside. And I don't think we will ever see Cam Newton repeat anywhere close to the magic MVP season. I just don't think that who he is as a quarterback. But he can be competent and just with Kelvin Benjamin's size and his which makes him an app. Just a touchdown threat at all times when you're inside the 20. So he's got upside, but I'm not going to go all in on him.

[Andy Holloway]

We are a few episodes away from breaking down the fantasy wide receivers, the early fantasy rankings for wide receivers. And so we'll see if Kelvin makes that list or not in a couple of episodes. Theo Riddick.

[Jason Moore]

How deep we going?

[Andy Holloway]

Theo Riddick underwent surgery on both of his wrists after the season. These injuries cost Reddick the last four games of last season. He is the one, in my opinion, the one sure thing role wise in Detroit. I mean he is a difference making third down running back, wide receiver. So Riddick. This report doesn't concern me whatsoever. He should be fine for OTAs. Probably just a good thing he's got those injuries repaired. Agreed.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

I do agree.

[Mike Wright]

I would agree.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. You know, I don't even know if I want to bring this one up. I really don't.

[Jason Moore]

I will say this because.

[Andy Holloway]

Because Adrian Peterson has disputed this with his own words. And so the report was that he's looking for $8 million for his first contract. And I am the first one to say I tweeted out a meme immediately of a person laughing. Because that's insanity.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, without. Sans a time machine, Adrian Peterson is not getting paid that kind of money.

[Jason Moore]

No, yeah, I agree. But I do think it's worth talking about Adrian Peterson right on the heels of the Theo Riddick news, because the Detroit Lions look to me like a possibility of a landing spot for him. They have had him trash their team for many, many years on the, on the field. And so I think that is a possible location for him to land, but it certainly will not be freight.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you. Would you say that Detroit might shoot him?

[Jason Moore]

Shoot.

[Andy Holloway]

No, shoot at him, Shoot at him. Is that what the. Take a shot at him.

[Mike Wright]

Take a shot out of context. That is good.

[Andy Holloway]

This show. You're with us, you've got the context. And if it's your first time, go listen to the last episode. There you go. Dallas Cowboys tight end youngster Jason Whitten has signed a four year extension through 2021.

[Mike Wright]

How is that possible?

[Andy Holloway]

It seems like it was to get his cap number down this year, but this would put him under contract until his year 39. To be honest, I already thought he was 39, so surprise he's not.

[Jason Moore]

Also, Josh McCown just received a seven year contract to play into his 50s.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you see the report yesterday about Tom Brady saying he could play until his late 40s?

[Jason Moore]

I don't see that right now. It's like I'm not going to argue against it. I mean, I know Father Time is going to win, but.

[Andy Holloway]

And Kraft said that Belichick could go into his 80s.

[Jason Moore]

Goodness, let it. I don't know if I want it to be so or no.

[Andy Holloway]

At what point do they both go back to the locker room after a game and enter cryo chambers? Is that the side by side they just enter in, go into hibernation?

[Mike Wright]

I imagine they already do. You have to. Tom Brady does whatever it takes to stay fit.

[Andy Holloway]

He certainly could play. I mean, if you think back to names that played into their 40s, Brett Favre had very productive years in his 40. Well, his year 40 season, Vinny Tessaverde was on a roster and playing as a backup at 44. Not a starter, not a starter. But Brady keeps himself in insane condition and his and the passing game there is not, you know, as dependent on. It's a pick apart offense.

[Mike Wright]

Right. But when it falls apart, it falls apart.

[Andy Holloway]

It does. Look at me. Look at Peyton Manning.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I was going to say. Peyton Manning is the best example because he was the best removed from 50 touchdowns. And.

[Andy Holloway]

And you don't know if an injury could change everything. An injury can make him hang it up.

[Jason Moore]

That's what happened with. And you're at an age where once you get that injury, oh no, my body never bounced back.

[Mike Wright]

At what point do defensive ends feel bad about the age of the person that they're hitting?

[Jason Moore]

They just come and push them. They're not tackling anymore. They just give them a good two hand shove. Gotcha.

[Andy Holloway]

If you don't know Tom Brady, you don't know Arp. All right, all right. Hey, but we're going to talk right now early running back rankings. We're going to get into it. Before we do that, I do want to thank our sponsor, pristineauction.com we were actually over at their place yesterday. Mike was pulling out these sweet team guitars that they sometimes have up on auction where you can grab a guitar. What a cool thing to display a team guitar on your wall. And they're affordable. Hundreds of daily auctions [e-mail] signed authentic sports memorabilia. The best in the industry, a great company and we love hearing on Twitter from fans who just snagged an awesome Yesterday on our livestream, Brittany picked up a color rush Terrell Suggs autographed jersey she wrote us in all capitals, which signifies excitement at winning that jersey. So check them out, let them know the fantasy footballers sent you. When you sign up over there, it's free to sign up and check out all the auctions. See if you can find something great from your hometown team and just keep them right there when you need to spruce up the man cave, when you need to get the office looking nice. So check them out. Pristineauction.com P R I S T I N E auction.com all right, guys, are you ready?

[Jason Moore]

I am certainly ready.

[Andy Holloway]

Running bags, are you absolutely ready?

[Jason Moore]

I've been looking forward.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that was the correct.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Are you absolute ready? As I would say, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

No. You know, these are shows that I think everybody enjoys because you're just going through the players. What's the pros, what's the cons, what's the outlook? You know, all of these players are going to be fantasy relevant, whether they're good or bad. Next year they're going to make an impact. So this is where we start the 2017 season, succeeding right here. That better for me.

[Andy Holloway]

Couldn't have said it better myself. I think what's great about this is our job on this podcast isn't to tell you what to do, it's to Equip you to make good decisions. And so when we give you the information on the top three, for example, the Lev Bell, David Johnson, Zeke, guys, we're giving you all the information. Jason broke it down the pros and the cons that that might help you make a pick. And then you can apply that to your league settings, your league format, how your team is made up, if it's a keeper or a dynasty league, those type of things. So let's start with number one on our consensus rankings. And again, we have our early, our early rankings up on thefantasyfootballers.com on the website. This is a consensus rank. So this is all three of ours put together and then this is the order that they ended up in. Le'Veon Bell. Le'Veon Bell ended up as our consensus number one running back. Let me run back his last three years. He was the number one running back in 2014. In 2015, he had the injuries. Okay. Only played six games. And then last year, 2016, he ended up number three despite playing 12 games. That correct?

[Mike Wright]

That is correct.

[Jason Moore]

That's incredible. Yeah, he was, he was just barely behind 0.3 fantasy points per game behind David Johnson, despite 11 fewer touchdowns on the, on the season than David Johnson. So I mean, look, Le'Veon Bell is, he's the goat when it comes to running backs. He, he's done it for years. He had more yards on the ground than David Johnson despite, you know, four less games. He only had five less catches.

[Andy Holloway]

That was eye opening to me, by the way.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

The on the ground numbers despite the three less games.

[Jason Moore]

But I think the main issue that you have to have here, if you're talking about Le'Veon Bell, when we talk about these top three, we're nitpicking a little bit, but you have to worry about how many games is he going to play. He's only played a full 16 games once and over four years he's averaged 11.75 games per year. That stinks. That's not good. You got injuries, you've got suspensions. You know, if you're talking about draft capital of the 101, the first pick in the draft, I like being risk averse and that's why on my personal rankings, Love Bell is not number one. I was wondering, but I do have David Johnson number one right now.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Le'Veon Bell, his pace, just so you can get a context of what he had, what he was doing last year, he was on pace for just under 1700 rushing yards. And over 800 receiving yards. I mean, that is just. That's not sustainable in my opinion. I'm not expecting that to happen next year. But what I like about Le'Veon Bell and of these big three, is just the reliability of when he's actually on the field. But he doesn't have to have these outrageous touchdown numbers to give you monster production every single week.

[Andy Holloway]

He doesn't even have to have outrageous rushing numbers every single week because his reception totals are so high.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And his usage, it will, it will remain the same if he's out there. Mike Tomlin, the way we've seen how he likes to use the running back when it wasn't Le'Veon Bell, it was D'Angelo Williams. And despite D'Angelo Williams agent, he, Mike Thomas still funneled everything through him. So that's just how the offense is going to run. Le'Veon Bell is, is a stud, but he has his concerns.

[Jason Moore]

If he plays 16 games, he's the number one.

[Mike Wright]

He'll be number one.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Look at the context of this. If you look at his 2016 season, okay, he averaged 161.6 yards from scrimmage per game from 1932 until now. That is the second best in history.

[Mike Wright]

Not sustainable in history. Number one over there.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Priest Holmes averaged 163.4 yards from scrimmage per game in 2002.

[Mike Wright]

That was a good year.

[Andy Holloway]

Right after him is O.J. simpson. Okay, then you've got a couple Marshall Falk years, a Jim Brown year, another Marshall Falk year that was. See that. It's always hard to say it's not sustainable because that could be the reason to take. What's the ceiling. It's second best yards from scrimmage per game ever. So I think we've. I think we've laid out the decisions to be made there with Levy on Bell, the difference making impact. But the games he misses. The games he misses might not matter. Number two on our consensus running back rankings is David Johnson. David Johnson, he is 25 years old. Last year, the number one running back played a full 16 games. Got injured in the last week of the season, scared everybody to death, is totally fine. In 2015, he was the eighth overall. That was his rookie year. What more can you say about the key cog in the Arizona offense? He can catch the ball, he can run the ball and he scores. And those numbers, the touchdown numbers, they're high. They could come down a little bit. But he's in a position in that offense to keep it going?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, with the way he takes care of his body and his age and his workload on his tires, so to speak, I'm not worried about. I'm not worried about him breaking down as much as other top running backs. I feel like he is the safest. He's matchup proof if they're down. He is probably. I mean, I guess Larry Fitzgerald might be better. But keep in mind Pro Football Focus, their number one wide receiver rated this last year was David Johnson, who is a running back. I mean, this is a guy that, yes, he had 20 touchdowns, which is both a pro and a con. Right. He's got a nose for the end zone, but that's almost certainly going to regress a little bit. But whether you are playing against a good defense, a bad defense, you're up, you're down. No matter what, he is going to score. He, I mean, he would have had 16 games of over 100 scrimmage yards and set the record last year if he didn't get injured in opening and.

[Mike Wright]

He tied the record. Is that correct?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you make a decision with David Johnson and Lev Bell in a Dynasty league that is impacted by the contractual situation of Le'Veon Bell at all? Does that affect you? Because I think they're the same age.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And so does it affect you knowing that David Johnson will be in Arizona, you know, for the next couple of years at least, versus Le'Veon Bell being franchised and not having a long term deal?

[Jason Moore]

Who?

[Mike Wright]

I don't think, man, that's an excellent question because I feel like Bell will.

[Jason Moore]

Be back with the Steelers personally, but we don't know.

[Mike Wright]

It's not a given.

[Jason Moore]

Both situations have quarterback issues. Right. Where Carson Palmer is not going to be. This will probably be his last year. But Ben Roethlisberger, how many years is he going to be playing?

[Mike Wright]

I don't know. He thought about retiring this year. Did you hear that?

[Jason Moore]

Yes. They're the same age, but obviously Le'Veon Bell has a lot more usage in the NFL. So I lean more towards David Johnson. If we're talking dynasty.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you know David Johnson, how much money is Le'Veon Bell making this year?

[Jason Moore]

He was 12, 8, I think.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's 12 million.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know. But very high.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, 8 to 12. It's in that 8 to 12 million.

[Mike Wright]

Range, give or take a couple million dollars. What's a couple million dollars?

[Andy Holloway]

You know what David Johnson's gonna make this year?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm guessing $600,639,000.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, well, third round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. He, he's under contract in 2017 and 2018. Becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2019. If they don't have it, an extension which I assume they will work on and hopefully get him paid a little bit earlier than that. So let's move to number three. You know his name, Ezekiel Elliott. What a rookie year for Ezekiel Elliott ended up number two in 15 games played. Was an absolute beast and really got it going after the first few weeks of the season. Dominant. What can you say about Ezekiel Elliott rounding out these top three guys?

[Mike Wright]

So I took a look at. I went back to 2010 at running backs who have finished with over 1600 yards, which was a feat that Ezekiel Elliott was able to do. And what I saw is no one really came close to matching the a repeat performance in most of these guys. So in 2010, Foster over 1600, he dropped to the 1200s. MJD did it and then he, his body fell apart. Alfred Morris dropped to the 1200s. Peterson, his near career or near record setting season of over 2000, he dropped down at 1200. So it's not that I don't think Elliott will have a spectacular season, but just if you're looking at historical data, guys who have been over 1600 yards, they. There's going to be regression there.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like quarterbacks who go out and throw the 40 plus numbers.

[Mike Wright]

Right. You just, you come out and I don't know, I mean it's his. None of these guys were in their rookie year. So you're not comparing apples to apples, of course. So sure Elliott could come out and do it. I just, I'm not expecting 1600 yards, but I am expecting another monster season for Elliott. I believe he's in fact my number one running back. In standard formats he loses a little bit because he's not going to get the 80 receptions like DJ and Lev Bell if you're in the half or a full point ppr. But for standard, he's my number one guy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Despite the fact that David Johnson had more touchdowns than zeke going into 2017. I think Zeke would be the guy I would expect to have the most touchdowns between these guys. At least rushing touchdowns for sure. His receiving is, I think an issue when it comes to what's your upside.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

And even though he was the most consistent running back this last year, if you were in a half point format, he never once in the entire season did not have double digits, which is incredible. But, but yeah, I mean if he regresses on the rushing yards, is he going to make that up? He only had 32 receptions. Is he going to make that up in the passing game? It doesn't seem like what they want to do. However, he's capable in the passing game. I mean, he was among the league leaders. If I'm not remembering right, he might have been the league leader at yards per reception from the running back position.

[Mike Wright]

Correct.

[Andy Holloway]

Does you know for all three of these big running backs, you have a situation where you know that they are locked and loaded as the main guy. They signed Darren McFadden, Dallas did to another to a contract. There's been talk of maybe Alfred Morris is the odd man out in that situation. McFadden only played two games with Ezekiel Elliott at all last year. He wasn't available. There were only two games. And you know, the numbers are very similar. Pretty much only two receptions a game in or out of the split with with Darren McFadden on the field. Slightly more receiving yards without McFadden. But does it concern you at all having McFadden in the mix there? Is there any reason that they would take him off the field? No concerns.

[Mike Wright]

No, I just like Jason was talking about in the passing game. Does the team want to use him in that three down roll? And it didn't appear that way.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. All right, number four. Number four on our rankings ends up with the slippery fish himself, Shady McCoy. Lechon McCoy. Look, he's been doing it for a long time, guys. He's been doing it for a long time. He was number four in 2010, number two in 2011, dropped to 18 in 2012, then back up to number two in 2013, 12 in 2014, 16 and 2015. And last year, number four. All right, number four. And really for a guy that we joke about being injury prone because every time he goes down it looks like he's torn like five or six ACLs. He sells his injuries, the Paul Pierce, the NFL. Despite that, I mean, look at games played 15, 15, 12, 16, 16, 12, 15. So it's not been something you should be really desperately afraid of.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, when you talk about consistency over a career for running backs, it's very hard to find someone as good as Shady. His eight seasons, you just, you just laid them out there. But here's the way to look at those eight seasons. Five of the eight, he was an RB1, he was a top running back the other three seasons. Right. One of them was his rookie season where I think he had like 100 touches. He was not very involved Yet, So that's. Throw that away. The other two, he was still an RB2, so he was valuable. And he only played 12 games in each of those seasons. So he's never been a bad running back. You've got the down years where he goes from 17 touchdowns to, you know, four touchdowns. And so you throw him away because of your expectations. But he's always been good. And when you watch film this last year, I mean, there's a reason we called him the slippery fish. He looks like he's still got it. He does. He's got a lot of mileage, but it's not. It's not. So he's got 1898 carries, 382 receptions. So that's 2280 touches, which is a large amount. But running backs don't start to have their rapid decline till after 2500 touches. Historically, that's like.

[Mike Wright]

That's the red flag.

[Jason Moore]

That's like this last season. I think we're going to have a good season. From Shady.

[Andy Holloway]

I believe Shady and DeMarco Murray are the two oldest running backs on our top 10 consensus rankings. I'm curious, did you happen to look at the total carries and touches for DeMarco Murray? Looks like he's at 14, 20 attempts and only 268 receptions. So neither of those guys, based on what you just said.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Even less with DeMarco Murray.

[Jason Moore]

They're not to that cliff yet. Yeah. Where?

[Andy Holloway]

It's good to know.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, exactly. Because I think that our perception is a little bit wrong on that. I think about the years that Shady had so many carries, and I worry maybe this is the year he breaks down, but I don't think that the data backs that up.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, and those are the type of things that would push an owner to draft maybe Devonta Freeman or Jordan Howard or, you know, a younger Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon over a DeMarco Murray or Lashawn McCoy simply because they want the new hotness, so to speak, and thinking that they're older than they are.

[Mike Wright]

And the point I wanted to bring up is, like Jason said, LaShawn McCoy's touchdowns do bounce all over the place. And last year, if you were Lashawn McCoy owner such as myself, it felt like Mike Gillislee was stealing every goal line opportunity. But Lashawn McCoy had touchdowns from one yard, five, four and two from three yards out.

[Jason Moore]

So 13 rushing touchdowns. Right.

[Mike Wright]

But what I'm saying is Gilly didn't take everything.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, he took eight of them, though.

[Mike Wright]

Well, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And that needs to Be I want.

[Jason Moore]

Shane with 21 rushing touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

That has to be factored in. And I say, while I say he didn't take everything, LaShawn McCoy only had 31% of the team's rushes from inside the five. And if you want context, Le'Veon Bell was at 53%. I mean he missed some games but. And Ezekiel Elliott, you know the man, he was at 64.7% so it can be much higher and I don't know if, if that will go up. They tendered Mike Gillisle, they're going to bring him back. So they.

[Andy Holloway]

Gillisle was great.

[Mike Wright]

There is touchdown concerns but the offensive line, they were best in yards before contact at 2.88 yards. Second place was the Titans at 2.37. So there was a big gap between how good Buffalo's line and their scheme was.

[Andy Holloway]

I think there are several other things to consider. You know, I read an article about Leshawn McCoy and his Basically having his touch percentages, you know, going down three years. Rex Ryan is gone, that system is gone. I think it is a. You know, we've been doing the show for a little while now and a few years and I remember when LaShawn McCoy went to Buffalo and the first thing out of the first giant concern because I was actually in the camp, the fanboy camp from McCoy and I remember. Yes, you were in the.

[Mike Wright]

I was.

[Andy Holloway]

You were in the. That offensive line is atrocious camp and I think it should be a small case and this is not me saying I was right but it should teach us that these lines can change quicker than we think they can too. Because McCoy, McCoy, McCoy has been very good for three years in, in Buffalo. So we need to move on. Let's talk about another 29 year old elder statesman, Demarco Murray. Another guy who. Perception isn't reality when it comes to the injury concerns for DeMarco Murray now in the beginning of his career. Yeah, he's 13 games, 10 games last four years. 14, 16, 15, 16 last four years. You. This, this is overwhelming. I mean number six in 2013, number two in 2014, number 17 in 2015. That was Philadelphia, the Eagles year. And then back to number five last year in a power running offense at Tennessee. Exactly what Tennessee wanted from demarco Murray. They got exactly what fantasy owners could have dreamed about. They got. I see no reason for this to change. Much to the chagrin of any.

[Jason Moore]

But, but Andy.

[Andy Holloway]

Uh huh.

[Jason Moore]

But they have Derrick Henry and he's gonna take everything over.

[Andy Holloway]

He's gonna have to be patient. He's gonna have to be patient because his time has not come. He's a great player but his time has not yet come.

[Mike Wright]

That's what's weird about them in. Can you imagine in this day and age sitting on a second round running back pick that many years?

[Jason Moore]

I mean that's when you're the Titans. Aaron Rodgers accumulate as many picks.

[Mike Wright]

They're like, I guess that's a fair point.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, big workload. 293 carries, 1287 yards and nine touchdowns last year caught 53 passes. That was huge. Was on the field when it was important. He is all the time.

[Jason Moore]

He is an excellent, I mean a top pass catching running back. We don't always think of him that way because he's a little bit larger and that's not like his bruiser. Yeah. But he is great and always has been since college, the entire time in the NFL he has been great. Which that leads me to feeling so much more confident in running backs because they're game plan proof. When the Titans get down, they need DeMarco Murray out there catching passes. When they're up, they need him killing the clock. I like guys like that. That's my preference when I'm talking about spending a first or a second round draft pick on a running back. I want them to catch the ball.

[Mike Wright]

It's important to me to speak to. That is the fun stat. Nugget about demarco Murley. He had Merley Merly. We are, we're on fire today, fellas. He had nearly 23% of the team's red zone targets. I mean that's outrageous. That was tops for market share for running back.

[Jason Moore]

Wouldn't you think that that will come down assuming that they put some, some capital into the wide receiver position. Whether in the draft, most of the, most of the free agents.

[Mike Wright]

It just says to me that, you know, if Mariota is in trouble in the red zone, he's. He's looking for Murray fair.

[Andy Holloway]

Devonta Freeman comes in at number six on our consensus running back rankings. He put doubters to shame in 2016. He was the number one fantasy running back. I think the natural and appropriate reaction to that was, hey, the regression has to happen a little bit. This season was off the hook, off the chain. Whatever the, whatever the young folks, whatever the 32 and undercrowd says. Number six last year played 16 games despite the jersey on the back of a wall here, which has been changed from Antonio Brown to what.

[Mike Wright]

Theme song.

[Andy Holloway]

Already you changed. I was starting to Change your pitch too. You went, you were going high. You were going to compliment Mike, weren't you? Yeah, I mean, but then you took over the lead. So despite having Coleman's involvement in that offense, it seems like keeping Devonta Freeman fresh so that he can then explode has been a pretty nice recipe for the the Atlanta Falcons. And look, he's 25 years old. He's been absolutely dominant. We talked earlier in the off season. They don't have a lot of money wrapped up into those running backs right now.

[Mike Wright]

Not yet.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, he's at number six on our rankings. His ADP right now is around the end of the first round. Is he the best value out of these top six guys?

[Jason Moore]

He is my fourth ranked running back ahead of the elder statement combo of Lashawn McCoy and DeMarco Murray. You know, when, when it was his rookie year, there were things on film we just did not like. And I think Mike, you famously said that Devonta Freeman stinks.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, we have issued that apologize.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's a famous one. The reality is when you watch Phil now what he's done since his rookie year and when you talk to people in Atlanta, he is the hardest working guy there. He sets the standard for work ethic. They love him there. And when you watch film, you can't bring the guy down. You know, he is so hard to wrap up and get on the ground and he's so good at catching the ball. He caught 70 plus passes two years ago. I think his talent and the offense says, look, I mean other than his rookie year where he wasn't the guy and he didn't even have the opportunity the rest of the time he's been a top six back.

[Andy Holloway]

Sometimes you have to adjust your thinking about these other, these backfield tandems too. When he played with Tevin Coleman, he's better. He averaged 20 more rushing yards than without him. He averaged basically, you know, three times as high a chance of a touchdown without him. I mean, sorry, with him than without him. He was a better point per reception running back. I mean everything on paper was better with Tevin Coleman in the lineup.

[Jason Moore]

Well, it makes sense, right, because he's, he's a smaller back. I mean he's 58206 and that's just one of those things where you can't go out and give the guy 30 carries. He's not going to be efficient.

[Andy Holloway]

Why? I think it makes sense and it doesn't. Right. Because if you think you get the ball handed to you every single play, you think better production and it's. What didn't, didn't equate to that. All right. Any other thoughts on Devonta Freeman?

[Jason Moore]

There's just, there's, there are some concerns.

[Mike Wright]

There's some. I have some concerns. I still like Freeman this year, but I'm not as gung ho as Jason. I mean, Kyle Shanahan is gone. Offensive genius who does spectacular things for quarterbacks and running backs. I mean he does amazing things. Patrick DeMarco, one of the best run blocking fullbacks is gone. He's up now with my man Shady in Buffalo. And just the increase of. I know he was better with Coleman, but there's also. Coleman missed a few games over the course of a full season. They're going to want to get Coleman involved. We've seen that the goal line gets spread out. So it's not just two Freeman, it's not just a Coleman. He lost 20 receptions from two years ago to last year. He still had over 50, which is, I mean that's, that's a great number. But there are, there's concerns for me of him being a top five fantasy running back next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Jordan Howard comes in at number seven on our consensus top 10 running back rankings. He's 22 years old. He finished number 10 last year in 15 games played and was really just incredible, just an incredible rookie running back there. Earlier in this offseason it was easier for me to dismiss some of it. You know, we saw Jeremy Hill have an incredible rookie year. I have come around a little bit now. I think Chicago is the second worst team in football. I think New York, the Jets will be the worst team in football.

[Jason Moore]

They're trying.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that, I think that Chicago is, is not going to be very good. And I, I am happy to be wrong. I have no reason to want them to be bad at all. So if you're a Chicago fan, I'm sorry, this is. Somebody has to be. They know in your mind somebody has to be worse. And I think they're going to be one of the worst. That being said, it is not a requirement for a running back to be a top tier fantasy running back does not have to be on a winning team.

[Mike Wright]

It certainly helps.

[Andy Holloway]

It does. It does help. And it would help Jordan Howard if they were in the red zone more often. I think this team will have inconsistency as kind of the backbone of the team on offense. Mike Glennon comes in, but I really like Jordan Howard. I think the volume is going to be there. I think he's going to become the face of that franchise now, much like David Johnson took it over in Arizona. It's going to be his backfield. I think he can do enough to be a top 10 back now. I don't think he's going to pass. I like him at this spot. I like him at 7, 8. That's my take on Jordan Howard. What are your pros and cons of Jordan Howard? Is he a value? Is he more risky? What is your take?

[Mike Wright]

He is concerning because I'm with you. I like Jordan Howard. Watching him play last year, the guy was an absolute manimal out there. I mean he just destroying people. Was second in the league in rushing. He didn't start. He wasn't the starter for the first few games yet he was week four.

[Jason Moore]

Week four is really when he became the starter then.

[Mike Wright]

That's outrageous. To be second in the league in rushing in with 25% of the season. You weren't even the starter. There's concerns though, the touchdown count. I know it was at 6, which you know, maybe could be higher, but he only actually scored rushing touchdowns in three games because three of those touchdowns were when they annihilated San Francisco, who was basically the worst rush defense in the league last year. But then you go back, there's positives after those two really down games where it looked like Jordan Howard. Oh, well, he's.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you mean where I traded him.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, a lot of people moved on from him. Oh, it was, it was a mirage. And then he went on a tear of 100 plus yards from scrimmage for the final nine games and I fudged it a little bit because one of those games was 99 yards.

[Jason Moore]

How dare you.

[Mike Wright]

I rounded him up. I rounded him out. But then you look at his snap counts. During that time he was only averaging 68% of the snaps. So I mean he's not even a full time guy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he was hashtag good.

[Andy Holloway]

That's.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I mean.

[Andy Holloway]

He was 5.2 a carry, but he was not touchdown defendant was so good.

[Mike Wright]

That they're just so good with a limited amount of work and snaps because I mean he had over 250 carries. I don't know, it just, it freaks me out I guess maybe because of my. In my past when I was so ready to anoint Jeremy Hill on a limited workload, a two down guy.

[Jason Moore]

Here's one of the things I'm working on in tandem with Brooks and we're going to get this data and we're going to put it out there. I want to Go back and look historically at rookie running backs. When they finish as a top 12 and as a top 24 in their rookie year, what do they do that following year? Do they. Do they come out hot because they're great and stay there or do they have that sophomore slump because people are no longer surprised? We're going to get that data. We will put it out there. Make sure you're following the show at least at the FF Ballers and we'll get that data to you because I think that's something we, you know, we need to know every single year and we always forget. So we'll have that out there.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to serve as an example to our listeners right now. Number eight on our list is Mark Ingram on our consensus top 10. My feelings towards Mark Ingram are so frustrated. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Understandably so.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to tell you right now, I am shocked. Like I pay attention. I had no idea he was the number nine running back last year.

[Jason Moore]

That's because he was. Because he one of the most employed me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I had him. You dealt with the Tim Hightower effect during last season. The in kind of the unpredictable, incredible unknown situation where you didn't know who was getting carries. There was a span where he fumbled and then it seemed like he was angry and the team wanted to punish him and it cost him on the field. Do you not find yourself concerned with that happening? You, you don't have that situation as a possible situation with the top five or six guys on this list. And yet Mark Ingram got in the doghouse last year, yet ended up number nine. When it was all said and done. He had that insanely monster game towards the end of the year where he just broke out. They gave him one carry finally and he took it to the house layout. Fix me, man. Fix me about Mark Ingram. Tell me what to think.

[Jason Moore]

I could say a couple of things. One, New Orleans is a shockingly like it's so surprising how good of a team they are for running backs because you think Drew Brees, you think the passing attack, you don't usually think, oh, that's the running game I want. But as a team, I believe Football Outsiders ranked them as one of the best run blocking. If not, I think it might be the number one run blocking offensive line. They had the seventh most yards year after year after year after year after year. They are almost always leading the league in running back targets in the passing game. And so, yeah, you did have the frustration because Tim Hightower was there and there were a couple games where it was bizarre. Mark Ingram was running great, looked good on film.

[Andy Holloway]

The.

[Jason Moore]

It looked good statistically. And then it's like. But let's give it to Tim Hightower, who looks all right.

[Mike Wright]

He's producing pretty okay and not even pretty okay.

[Jason Moore]

But Tim Hightower currently is not there. He has not signed. I don't expect him to resign. That's not to say he's gone, but I don't think he's going to be back. So Ingram to me is a guy that they're paying for, that they're going to use that has been productive, been efficient. And if Tim Hightower is out of the way, I like him quite a lot.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we 46 receptions last year, 50 the year before. That was when everything really changed for the fantasy outlook of Mark Ingram is when he became that caliber or was used in that caliber of the passing role. But I mean, last year, 205 carries, over 1,000 yards, ran for over five yards a clip. I mean, it's. I'm with you, Andy. That is baffling. What Sean Payton chooses to do with Mark Ingram when he chooses to make statements about players. So you're going to have to kind of deal with that. But for me, you're looking at. I say that what you're looking at in these tiers of guys, starting really with Jordan, Howard, Freeman, I laid out, you know, a couple concerns, but I still feel confident in him. But starting from Jordan Howard down now, for me, all of these guys come with more awards. Yes, higher question marks. But Mark Ingram being on the Saints offense has tremendous upside fantasy points.

[Andy Holloway]

He really didn't struggle. I mean, he had a couple games that really punched you in the face as a fantasy owner and really bad. You're talking a negative 1.2 game that's hard to do 3 for 5 with a fumble. And then he had a three point game against Taylor Tampa, which was unexplainable. And here's it. I know, I know. And the carry counts in these games. 3, 7, 7, 7. I mean, five games under 10. That's not what you hope for from a top 10 running back. No, it's five games with under 10 carries.

[Jason Moore]

But during those games, it was the Tim Hightower show. And I don't think it was because they hate Mark Ingram. I think it's because they loved Tim Hightower. I don't get it. But they do. But I mean, look at Atlanta, right? Atlanta had one of the highest powered offenses in the league. And as long as we. And they had the crazy running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. And so, of course, they scored the most team fantasy points. They had 464.8 fantasy points to the running backs. New Orleans was a hair behind them at 463.8, one point behind them for fantasy points to the running back position. They're. I mean, they're just a great location.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk number nine. Whoo. He made it in. He made it in.

[Mike Wright]

I saw. Look, folklore.

[Andy Holloway]

You tried your best.

[Mike Wright]

I tried my best to keep him out of the top 10, but I could not persevere.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley is number nine. Whoa, everybody. You know, you talk about a mental impact that a player can make. Look, Todd Gurley is number nine on the ranks. And you. You looked back and you saw years from Shady McCoy, who 16th ranked, 18th ranked last year. We have him down as 17. Todd Gurley was 17 after finishing number seven in 2015 on 13 games. It was a struggle last year. There's no two ways about it. He basically had more a higher percentage of snaps and participation in that offense than almost anybody in football. And the production, fantasy wise, NFL wise, wasn't there?

[Mike Wright]

No, not even close. You have. So the top five running backs in total touches, right? There's toddlers, there's. You have Lev Bell, David Johnson. I'm forgetting now, Zeke. Todd Gurley's. Todd Gurley's in there. And Demarco Murray. Four of those guys were in the top five for fantasy running backs. One of them was 17th. Was 17th. He was top five in total touches. And I mean, that's how.

[Andy Holloway]

But that's what you want.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

You want top five in total.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. We talk about opportunity is king, but I just. You need to understand contextually just how bad Todd Gurley was. Last year, seven running backs had 300 plus touches. The other six were running back ones. Todd Gurley was not. I had to go back to 2012 to find a running back who had over 300 touches and was not a running back one. And that was. Chris Johnson barely squeaked out of running back 13. And that was that the Ben Jarvis Green Ellis year. I don't know if you recall that, but that's. They're just. He was so inefficient and so bad with. Despite getting all that work. And for me, what. What has changed that you think he can bounce back?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I look, a lot. A lot has changed. Sean McVay is the head coach. Sean McVeigh builds offenses around players strengths. Jeff Fisher builds.

[Jason Moore]

He builds around the punter, he builds.

[Andy Holloway]

Around the punting game. Sean McVay. And the offensive line has been strengthened. Part of the equation last year was nobody was hit faster than Todd Gurley. Okay. That offensive line, his yards before being, before contact was incredible. Now you either buy into Todd Gurley as a, as a elite talent or you don't.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

And you can say, hey, 2015, it was number seven and he only played 13 games last year. Piles and piles of touches. What does he do if he's more efficient? Everything you said to me, you can bend both directions. Anemic. Despite that number. Oh my gosh, he was bad. Or wow, anomalous. Despite that number. Almost everybody with those numbers ends up top five. He didn't last year. Things didn't go the right way for that team. Carousel at quarterback, Jeff Fisher, Horrible offensive line, out of sync. A lot has changed. I have made it public. I'm, I'm buying into that. And I went out and I traded for him in Dynasty and I don't. Here's what I don't think. I don't think you draft Tide Gurley and you end up with a neutral result. I think you're going to get. You're going to be hot fire. You're going to be sadness. That's what I think.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I don't know that I agree with the last point, but I agree with almost everything else you said. In the sense that where we have him, I'll take it where we have him ranked consensus because you guys are, you know, hot and cold on him. Puts him right about where I've got him ranked. I think this is where he finishes the baby bear. I think he'll finish as a low end RB1.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're saying we balanced each other to the point where we actually are benefiting our listener.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Yeah. You know, because you do have an improved offensive line. You did get rid of Jeff Fisher. However, Lance Dunbar's brought in and we've seen the pass catching role has been used by this coach. And so if you lose the 40 plus catches that Todd Gurley had last year, that that hurts his fantasy value. At the end of the day, he is a clear centerpiece of an offense that I don't think is going to be very good. And so I think he'll be. He'll have the opportunity to be productive for fantasy. I don't think he's going to completely crap your team. Even last year when he was as bad as possible, he was still the 17th running back. And people feel like because of their expectations that he crafted their team.

[Mike Wright]

He didn't. He craft your team from the sense of where you drafted him.

[Jason Moore]

Right. And so this year, if you end up getting a better value, I think he's going to split the difference and he's going to be all right.

[Andy Holloway]

And we talked about Andrew Whitworth coming in, their left tackle from Cincinnati, one of the game's best blockers. We'll see. We'll see what happens.

[Jason Moore]

It is worth at least saying because we want to give the information to listeners. There is a chance that Todd Gurley. I'm just throwing this out there. There is a chance that Todd Gurley is done. I'm just saying talent wise. When I watch. Yes, he got said. He's what done. I'm throwing. Here's. Here's why I. Here's why I think that when I watched the film on him, yes, the offensive line was bad, but he had plenty of opportunity to break one tackle and get away. And he never did. His first five games when he came into the league, I mean, the first game wasn't a start. And then in his first four games, he averaged 141 and a half yards per game. Zeke was amazing. He averaged 108, 141. But since that time, the last 24 games he has played, he's only averaged 59 yards a game. So I think he will finish as a low end. 91.

[Andy Holloway]

If I didn't have headphones on, I'd plug my ears.

[Mike Wright]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

It has to be said. It has to be said because the possibility exists for those things. We can look. I feel like these conversations were had about Darren McFadden when he came into the league and it was like, boy, get him into this scheme and get him under these blockers and give him an oh, he needs to be healthy. And look, sometimes guys, look. They all the excuses fade away after a couple of years and this is going to be a telling year. Are we going to come back here on the early running back ranking show next year and say he bounced back, he was a top ten guy again, or. All right, two bad years for Todd Gurley. You can't take the chance on. But 23 years old should be interesting. We got around this out here. Melvin Gordon, number 10 last year, number 7 overall despite only playing 13 games. So very similar to what Gurley did in 2015. He had a monster year in terms of being a centerpiece of that offense. No more Danny Woodhead, Los Angeles. And what, what do we expect from Gordon? And would you Take Gordon or Gurley individually. Which one do you guys. Which one do you guys want to take the chance on? You're either betting on a return, a positive regression for Gurley, or you're betting on a regression regression for Melvin Gordon.

[Mike Wright]

I would personally take Melvin Gordon and I think that I'm probably the lowest of the three of us.

[Andy Holloway]

I still think you're in the majority on that decision though, on Gordon over Gurley. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And I, I have concerns on Gordon. I have concerns on the inefficiency. This. He's. What's funny is just how much his situation mirrors Todd Gurley. I mean, they were taking picks apart. They were both just fed the ball last year until they vomited, and they were both extremely inefficient. However, one of them is on a much better offense and that's why I lean towards Melvin Gordon. What's funny with him is so running backs with 220 plus carries, he joins Todd Gurley as the Only one under 1,000 yards in people have destroyed. Jeremy Hill was destroyed last year. People hated him. Jeremy Hill had 32 less carries than Melvin Gordon, but over 120 yards more.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Melvin Gordon was not efficient, but he just, he.

[Mike Wright]

I just, I want people to. I want to take that, just the blinding shine off of Melvin Gordon. That's all I want to do is don't be blinded by his fantasy production because the guy was. He was just getting touchdowns every. Every single week.

[Jason Moore]

It was unbelievable, man. He had so many. He went from no touchdowns his entire rookie season to, oh, yeah, I'll give you touchdowns. And I expect it's going to land and finish somewhere in the middle. If I have to choose, I'm on the clock between Gurley and Gordon. I like Gurley's opportunity better, but I like the offense better for San Diego. So similar to you, I would take Melvin Gordon by a hair.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we got to wrap it up, guys. We're hitting that hour mark. You know what they say, there's always another episode.

[Jason Moore]

That's what they say. And Thursday we'll be going deeper. Thursday is an even more exciting show to me to talk about the running backs where it's like, okay, we're going to disagree even more on some of those guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah, we are. After I looked at Mike's rankings, he put up. Did you do the dartboard again this year? You put all the faces up on the wall.

[Jason Moore]

He's a truther's truther.

[Andy Holloway]

You just threw the darts.

[Jason Moore]

Ryan Weiss has a great article on the fantasy footballers.com about being a truther. It's like a little fun quiz article. Go take it and see if you are a Mike Wraith.

[Andy Holloway]

If you did the Dark Game, I feel like you put me made Bilal Pals head huge on the wall. So it was really easy to hit.

[Mike Wright]

That's very popular. We'll talk about it on Thursday.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Hey, make sure you stay tuned on YouTube for the show. After the show we're going to talk more Las Vegas Raiders. That's a strange thing to say out loud. Figure out their abbreviation. We'll do. We'll do all of that on the show. After the show, subscribe on YouTube. And again, a reminder, head over to Ultimate Draft Kit.com and get your hands on the pre order for the 2017 Ultimate Draft Kit. It's going to be awesome.

[Mike Wright]

You won't find it any cheaper.

[Andy Holloway]

No, look around. Just do your best. Try to, try to figure it out. All right, that is it for today and we will catch you on Thursday.

[Mike Wright]

Make sure you head over to fantasyjocks.com check out some trophies. The promo code is Footballers. We'll see you on Thursday. Peace. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot. Com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.