Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early TE Rankings

Summary

Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early TE Rankings Summary

Release Date: April 13, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction to Early Tight End Rankings

In this episode, the Fantasy Footballers delve into their comprehensive early 2017 tight end (TE) rankings. The hosts emphasize the pivotal role of tight ends in fantasy football, highlighting how selecting the right TE can provide a significant weekly advantage over opponents. They discuss the nuances of the TE position, including injury risks, performance consistency, and the impact of elite players like Rob Gronkowski.

Notable Quote:
Eric Dickinson [05:00]: “It's all about touchdowns.”

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Consensus Top Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski

   • Rank: #1
   • Description: Gronkowski remains the premier TE when healthy, offering unmatched dominance both in receiving and blocking. Despite injury concerns, his high ceiling makes him a top-tier pick.
   • Notable Quote:
     Jason Moore [14:49]: “He is a monster. He does everything great for a tight end.”

2. Jordan Reed

   • Rank: #2
   • Description: Reed offers high target volume and yardage but has been plagued by injuries. His ability to produce double-digit touchdowns keeps him highly valued.
   • Notable Quote:
     Andy Holloway [19:58]: “I'll take him in the back of the third to make sure I get him if I'm in a full point PPR league.”

3. Travis Kelce

   • Rank: #3
   • Description: Kelce has shown consistent improvement, boasting an increasing number of receptions and yards each season. While his touchdown numbers raised some concerns, his overall performance sustains his high ranking.
   • Notable Quote:
     Jason Moore [21:59]: “He led in targets.”

4. Greg Olsen

   • Rank: #4
   • Description: Olsen is celebrated for his consistency and durability, playing nearly every snap since 2008. His steady production makes him a reliable middle-round pick.
   • Notable Quote:
     Andy Holloway [27:44]: “It's an iron man.”

5. Jimmy Graham

   • Rank: #5
   • Description: Graham showcased a strong comeback from injury, maintaining solid production throughout the season. However, his second-half performance raised questions about his consistency.
   • Notable Quote:
     Jason Moore [33:08]: “His production did not go up as expected.”

6. Tyler Eifert

   • Rank: #6
   • Description: Eifert is noted for his high efficiency and touchdown potential but carries injury risks. His alignment with a reliable quarterback and consistent offensive role bolster his fantasy value.
   • Notable Quote:
     Andy Holloway [35:53]: “He's the highest efficiency points per fantasy points per target of any tight end in the league.”

7. Kyle Rudolph

   • Rank: #7
   • Description: Rudolph offers excellent value given his low average draft position (ADP). He leads in targets and is central to his team's offense, making him a valuable mid-round selection.
   • Notable Quote:
     Andy Holloway [39:31]: “I would much rather spend a third, fourth and fifth round draft pick on another running back and another wide receiver and grab Kyle Rudolph.”

8. Zach Ertz

   • Rank: #8
   • Description: Ertz has emerged as a consistent performer, especially in the second half of seasons. His involvement in red-zone plays makes him a strong contender for high touchdown numbers.
   • Notable Quote:
     Andy Holloway [43:43]: “Zach Ertz got five targets inside the 10. He did score two touchdowns on the five targets.”

9. Delanie Walker

   • Rank: #9
   • Description: Walker remains a dependable TE with steady production, though his upside as a top-three option is limited. His durability and involvement make him a solid mid-tier pick.
   • Notable Quote:
     Jason Moore [45:21]: “He’s never a top three guy from Delanie Walker.”

10. Eric Ebron

    • Rank: #10
    • Description: Ebron offers significant upside with his big-play ability and evolving role in the offense. Despite a low ADP, his potential to break into the top ranks makes him an intriguing late-round target.
    • Notable Quote:
      Eric Dickinson [46:41]: “This guy could win you a championship if you're drafting him with your last pick.”

11. Cameron Brate

    • Rank: #11
    • Description: Brate has shown efficiency in scoring touchdowns but may face competition with new additions to his team. His role as a red-zone target keeps him relevant.
    • Notable Quote:
      Andy Holloway [50:48]: “Cameron Brate's touchdown number was extremely efficient.”

12. Jack Doyle

    • Rank: #12
    • Description: Doyle is viewed as a late-round sleeper with potential upside, especially if the offense leans heavily on the tight end. His connection with a favored quarterback enhances his fantasy prospects.
    • Notable Quote:
      Jason Moore [53:05]: “There is no definitive answer for this.”

13. Hunter Henry

    • Rank: #13
    • Description: Henry offers double-digit touchdown potential and has shown improvement in his second year. However, his position in the draft remains relatively low due to perceived risks.
    • Notable Quote:
      Andy Holloway [55:14]: “I have him at number 10 in my standard list.”

14. Martellus Bennett

    • Rank: #14
    • Description: Bennett provides consistent production but may see a regression in touchdowns. His reliability makes him a steady option within the later rounds.
    • Notable Quote:
      Jason Moore [55:10]: “He had 36 catches with eight touchdowns.”

15. Antonio Gates

    • Rank: #15
    • Description: Gates, a veteran TE, continues to offer solid play despite aging. His reliability keeps him within the top 15, though his ceiling has slightly diminished.
    • Notable Quote:
      Jason Moore [57:13]: “He was drafted as a superstar, but consistency is key.”

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Sleeper Picks Outside the Top 15

The hosts identify several tight ends outside the initial top 15 who possess the potential to breakout and climb the rankings based on performance trends and team dynamics.

• Ladarius Green

  • Description: Despite injury concerns, Green has shown explosive play potential. If he remains healthy, his impact could elevate him into the top tier.
  • Notable Quote:
    Jason Moore [58:00]: “If he can, in fact, play 14 or more games, I think Ladarius Green is an easy tight end one.”

• Zach Miller

  • Description: Miller remains a high-risk, high-reward option due to his injury history. However, his productivity when healthy makes him a valuable late-round target.
  • Notable Quote:
    Andy Holloway [58:15]: “Zach Miller could be one of those guys that finishes the year as a top 10.”

• Dennis Pitta

  • Description: Pitta is a reception leader who lacks touchdown consistency. In PPR leagues, his steady target volume can be advantageous.
  • Notable Quote:
    Eric Dickinson [60:11]: “Julian Edelman, Demarius Thomas. I mean, obviously, if Demarius Thomas is sitting there in the fifth round, there's no chance.”

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Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The Fantasy Footballers conclude by reinforcing the significance of selecting the right tight end early in drafts to secure a competitive edge. They encourage listeners to explore their comprehensive rankings on the Fantasy Footballers website and engage with their community for additional insights and resources.

Notable Quote:
Eric Dickinson [60:52]: “If you want to support the show, get an extra episode, get extra questions answered and a bunch of other cool stuff.”

Upcoming Topics:
Next week, the podcast will shift focus to quarterback rankings and rookies to watch for the upcoming NFL draft season.

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Stay Connected:
For more detailed rankings and fantasy resources, visit fantasyfootballers.com and follow the hosts on Twitter @FFballers.

Transcript

[Eric Dickinson]

Hi, this is Eric Dickinson, NFL hall of Famer, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Eric Dickinson]

Welcome into the show. It is Thursday, April 13, 2017, and I'm going to tell you right now, you guys are both very lucky that I am here today.

[Jason Moore]

We are.

[Eric Dickinson]

There is a swarm of bees.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh.

[Eric Dickinson]

That has nested itself in my front yard.

[Jason Moore]

There's something.

[Eric Dickinson]

And I thought about just staying home.

[Jason Moore]

The. The scientists are talking about, you know, there's. The bees are disappearing.

[Andy Holloway]

Hogwash.

[Jason Moore]

We have found them.

[Eric Dickinson]

They're in Arizona.

[Jason Moore]

All in Arizona right now. People are fleeing for their lives.

[Eric Dickinson]

Did you see this at a baseball. At one of the spring training games, a swarm came through and everybody laid down on the ground like it was a nuclear drill.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Because there's bees.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

It's basically the same thing.

[Andy Holloway]

They were swarming my house two days ago.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah. Is this the same. Did you send them to my.

[Andy Holloway]

I bagged them up. I took them to your place and dropped them.

[Eric Dickinson]

Put them in the tree.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Eric Dickinson]

That's not nice.

[Jason Moore]

If you asked me, which I guess you could do that right now. What do I fear more, a nuclear bomb or bees?

[Eric Dickinson]

You're still on the bees.

[Jason Moore]

The answer is firmly bees.

[Eric Dickinson]

That's strange. But happy you're here.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not going out like that, man. Not going out.

[Eric Dickinson]

He'll go out the nuclear route, whatever.

[Jason Moore]

But the bees. Slow, painful.

[Andy Holloway]

One of those things had to kill me. I'm definitely choosing the nuke.

[Eric Dickinson]

That's true.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm dying one way or the other. Go ahead.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

This has gone down quickly.

[Eric Dickinson]

I was gonna say. I normally do a lot of fantasy research, but I've done a lot of bee research over the last 24 hours and apparently all of them are Africanized in Arizona. This is what I've learned.

[Jason Moore]

That's what the papers are. Which does.

[Eric Dickinson]

The papers.

[Jason Moore]

The papes.

[Andy Holloway]

When I go out and get my Sunday newspaper from the driveway, see the papers.

[Eric Dickinson]

We have a great show. That is not B related. Today we have our early tight end rankings, so I'm very excited. We're going to try to get through about 15 tight ends, to be honest with you. Like, the research on the tight end position was more interesting than just about everything because you have so many of these guys that are. Some are injury prone, some have had these big years and then down years and projecting them forward. You know, that's a position where if you pick the right guy, that advantage is huge week to week over your opponent. And it's not just the Gronkowski story, right? Like, yes, when Rob Gronkowski's healthy, he's great and I hint, hint, he'll probably be at the top of our rankings. But outside of that, there are guys to identify and kind of say, you know, maybe I draft this guy in the seventh, eighth round and he's a difference maker for me all season long. So, so I'm really excited to talk about that. Quick question of the day, guys. We talk about streaming the quarterback position all of the time. Can we compare. This is the question that came in. Can you compare streaming the quarterback position to streaming the tight end position? Is there, you know, do you view it the exact same? You know, we talk about these positions where you only start one guy like the tight end in the quarterback position versus the wide receivers and the running backs. So can you compare those two for our listeners?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I would say certainly. In fact, when I was looking up and researching this question, it almost appeared to me like it's more important or at least more valuable to stream tight ends than quarterbacks in the sense that, you know, quarterbacks, if you had a quarterback one last year, they averaged in six point per touchdown leagues, 25 points. That's the format we play in. And tight end won in a half point for format, averaged nine points. But when you look at the defense and you know a good defense, what do they give up versus a bad defense? Usually like the top 5 in both quarterbacks and tight ends, it's basically about a three point swing in both directions. So six point total swing. Well, six point swing when you're, when your average is nine is gigantic. When your average is 25, not so much. And even when you look at. So like last year's number one tight end Travis Kelsey had a great season and it wasn't even touchdown dependent. Right. He was just a monster and had, you know, led. Was he, did he lead in targets or.

[Jason Moore]

No, not targets, but he was close.

[Andy Holloway]

To the top there. You know, I want nine points at least from my tight end and a half point for him. Want that 10 but a nine I will accept there were seven times last year that he didn't even have nine points. And Jason Whitten, Mr. Like you know, all American, dependable. Give me that nine. Guess how many times Andy, would you say he had nine fantasy points or more last year and I don't know that answer. He finished as the tight end 12.

[Eric Dickinson]

Whitten did.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Eric Dickinson]

Nine fantasy points or more. I'm going to guess three times you nailed it. Really?

[Andy Holloway]

13 times he let you down.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, I mean that, that's kind of the story of the tight end position. But when you talk about streaming, we're going to go through 15 guys today and then we all have a sleeper pick outside the top 15 that could be a guy that ends up in that range.

[Jason Moore]

It's all about touchdowns.

[Eric Dickinson]

I mean right there, that's 18 guys in that that we're going to talk about. And you're right, it is. It's all about touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Finding defenses who are susceptible to the tight end is often former far more advantageous than just rolling with them. A middle of the pack, you're saying.

[Eric Dickinson]

When you pick a streaming tight end, that's the way to do it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Like you have the guy. Well, he's giving me tight end seven numbers. I would rather grab a guy who I know is going against the third worst defense against tight ends and hope for a touchdown from that guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Certainly. I mean Jason Whitten, he. Right. I talked about him just a second ago. Only three times was he over and yet he finished as a tight end. One one of the reasons is because when he played Cleveland, one of the worst teams, that was a great strategy last year.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Play against Cleveland and he was 8 for 134 and a touchdown.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right. We have a new article up on the website. What's on tape about Michael Thomas by Kyle Borgnani. You can check it out at the fantasy footballers.com Our Twitter is at the ffballers. If you want to follow the Hitman himself you can do so at FF Hitman Jason is at Jason FFL. I'm at Andy Holloway and check out JoinTheFoot.com or Fantasy Football community. Lots of premium resources and perks for supporting the show. We appreciate everything you guys do out there to subscribe and review and listen to this show and support this independent podcast. Let's go ahead and jump into the news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Eric Dickinson]

Jason's. The look on Jason's face is he's somehow he's very tired of talking about Marshawn Lynch.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh man, it's just like the news won't die. I wish we got like a drop and made a drop two months ago. Like the Marshawn lynch almost news watch.

[Eric Dickinson]

I was in my car this morning going through a drive through, picking up a little breakfast smoothie and I had had some 90s music on. Right. There's a CNN documentary that's coming out about the 90s, which somehow we can do a documentary about the 90s. I don't really understand because it was four years ago. I know it was 400 years ago, but a song came on. It really summarized my feelings on march on Lynch.

[Jason Moore]

What do we got here? What do we got? Mmm hmm.

[Eric Dickinson]

Just got me right in the feels.

[Jason Moore]

Got you in the right in the junior high dance. Fields separated on the sides, big space in the middle. Fellas on the left, ladies on the right. No one dancing.

[Andy Holloway]

Moses comes right through.

[Eric Dickinson]

Saving the best for last. The news report this morning. Marshawn lynch has begun the reinstatement process. Shortly after that report from ESPN's Ed Warder. You had Ian Rapoport hopping on and saying that he's gonna be traded to the Raiders. So I guess that's what we expected. There were some weird reports last week about the Patriots as a potential.

[Jason Moore]

There was also another weird report this.

[Eric Dickinson]

Morning about Richard Sherman.

[Jason Moore]

Wherever Sherman goes.

[Eric Dickinson]

Apparently they're. What are they tight?

[Jason Moore]

I guess. I mean they're. They're buddies.

[Eric Dickinson]

Alright. So saving the best for last. I'm optimistic about lynch. When you have two top 13 seasons out of Latavius Murray in Oakland, I think lynch can be in that RB2 with RB1 upside range. So they're expected to work out a trade very soon and so we'll see if that happens in finality. But another step forward for Marshawn lynch returning. Any reason this isn't happening, Mike, at this point?

[Jason Moore]

Not. No. At this point I was. I was wrong about Marshawn lynch coming back. I still stand by that he'll be overdrafted.

[Andy Holloway]

I have never been more like now. I hope he doesn't come back now that you flip flopped. Now I'm actually rooting against it.

[Eric Dickinson]

According to. Who is this Tony Pauline. The 49ers are ready to give up on Carlos Hyde due to his struggles with injuries. What do you make of this report? Because here's what I know. Nobody knows more about injuries than you, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

This is very true. I love guys who are injured often. I love Carlos Hyde. But this is what I will say about embraced it. You got to follow the trail because before this news was the news the smoke and the bushes that came out. The San Francisco 49ers are possibly going to draft a running back at number two.

[Eric Dickinson]

Sometimes there's smoke in the bushes. Sometimes there's rumors in the bushes.

[Jason Moore]

The Bushes are doing a lot of things.

[Eric Dickinson]

The other day the Bushes were talking back to Mike. I don't Know what? The Bushes are where rumors happen.

[Andy Holloway]

We're back to Moses, man.

[Eric Dickinson]

We are.

[Jason Moore]

But they were leaking rumors that maybe they want to draft a certain running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Number two. And people like, no way. Like, oh, well, you know what? We don't like our running back, so maybe we will. And now there's more news today, like, of John lynch saying we're open for business with the number two overall pick.

[Andy Holloway]

April news. Now, if it's coming from Ian Rappaport about, you know, things like, like the Marshawn, I at least pay attention to that April news coming out from teams. I listen, but I mostly just in one ear and out the other and kind of barely keep in mind, I mean, the truth is Carlos Hyde is very injury prone. They could deal with having another running back. This is not. We didn't need any news to, you know, announce that, like breaking news. Carlos Hyde gets injured a lot.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I think this is a, this is a memo. I mean, he's saying all this while he's staring directly at Jacksonville.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, no, you're right. You're right, you guys. But do you remember draft misdirection? Seeing what kind of packages people can.

[Jason Moore]

Put for the people who are like, well, this is a conspiracy theory. Just think back to the Trent Richardson year where the Minnesota Vikings had, I think was the third pick and the Browns were fourth and they had Adrian Peterson on the team and they stared at the Cleveland Browns and said, we're going to draft Trent Richardson unless you move up. And they did.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And they got free picks out of it. So the Cleveland Browns could move up one spot for Trent Richardson.

[Eric Dickinson]

Jay Cutler contemplating retirement.

[Andy Holloway]

I believe you read that backwards. The NFL contemplating retirement for Jay Cutler. Yeah.

[Eric Dickinson]

Nobody's shown any interest in Jay Cutler. And Jay Cutler's lack of interest in playing, or so it seems for years, is certainly for years, is certainly encouraging teams to do nothing about it. So couple other quick pieces. Mike Gillisle and Damian Williams visiting the Patriots. They're restricted free agents, both of them, so it would cost the Patriots fifth round pick for Gillislee. Look, Gillislee is talented, so I don't know why you need 17 running backs in New England, but apparently they. They're willing to kick the tires on just about everybody.

[Jason Moore]

They just trying to rack up frequent flyer miles.

[Andy Holloway]

You know this.

[Eric Dickinson]

They're just flying, Flying people out.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, they're bringing everyone in, just building up those miles.

[Eric Dickinson]

I heard they, I think they heard us talk about how sad it is for free agent running backs. And they're just trying to make them all feel better.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel like this is actually indicative news, right? I mean, this isn't speculative. They brought these guys in. So it says to me that at the very least, they're considering another running back and the Rex Burkhead signing. Everyone said, oh, Legarit's not on the team anymore. And so Rex Burkhead is in. Look at all the touchdown opportunities, which always was weird to me because he's not that type of a background, whereas Gillislee is. You know, he was great at goal line.

[Eric Dickinson]

Eight touchdowns last year.

[Andy Holloway]

So I expect LeGarrett Blunt or Gillis Lee or draft pick or someone to come in as well.

[Eric Dickinson]

You have to. You have to wonder if, like, you know, this is. Hey, LeGarrett, look who we're bringing in. Yeah, bringing in some more guys. Accept our offer.

[Andy Holloway]

That's.

[Jason Moore]

That's how it feels to me. And for your point, Jay, it certainly could be. I mean, because we saw we have evidence of Gillislee being very successful, but they're basically the same size. I mean, Gillisley's 511, 218. Rex Burkhead's 510. 210. I mean, there's not much difference between those two guys.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's get on to the tight ends. Before we get there, though, we want to remind everybody, all the listeners, we are so grateful and thankful for. The amazing listeners of this show, the Foot Clan. Genuine thank you for helping make us one of the larger podcasts out there. If you want to be a part of the show and a part of the community, be able to, you know, we do a Thursday special podcast. Today's Thursday, every day, every week with just questions from the Foot Clan over at Join the Foot. So if you want to support the show, get an extra episode, get extra questions answered and a bunch, a bunch of other cool stuff.

[Jason Moore]

Access the Foot Clan leagues. A lot of people ask. I'm looking for a great league. Where can I find one? Well, we got a bounce for you.

[Eric Dickinson]

And about 3,000 people to bounce your trade offers off of and things.

[Andy Holloway]

3,000Amazing people, Andy. So go check out jointhefoot.com and we appreciate you.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, we invite you over there. All right, let's get into the tight ends. Tight ends, not every show features some 90s Vanessa Williams. That's all. That's all I'm going to say. Do you need a reason to support the show or run away from it? That's it right there. All right, number one on our consensus tight end rankings, our early 2017 rankings. And just a reminder to everybody, you can find our rankings on the website the Fantasy footballers dot com. These are our average rankings. When you look at how Mike and Jason and myself initially set forth our tight ends and project them for 2017, coming in number one appropriately, I think Rob Gronkowski, still just 28 years old. We know the story of Rob Gronkowski. It's the story of when he's healthy. He's the most dominant force in the league at the tight end position. He can win you a week, possibly in football. Yeah. No, that's honest.

[Jason Moore]

He is a monster. He does everything great for a tight end. He's not just a pass catching tight end. He is also a tremendous blocker. But last year was insane for Rob Gronkowski when he, of course, when he was actually on the field. But his career average is 14 1/2 yards per reception. Last year in basically six games, 21.6 yards per reception. I mean the guy was ridiculous. He was averaging over 100 yards per game. It was, it was out of control. The, the question for Gronk would be, is he ready? I mean, I know he says he's ready and by the looks of WrestleMania, you would think that he's ready to go, but will he be, will he be fully ready when the season comes around and what will that draft price be? Because I'm, I'm never willing to go in on a tight end in the first round. I'm hesitant at the top of the second. But as we've been, as we've been moving through these guys, stating people, I'm finding this very nebulous block group that I just am not liking. So I'm actually warming to the idea if I'm in the middle of the second round, you know, early third round pick that I would actually take Gronk, and this will be, that'll be the first time I've ever done.

[Eric Dickinson]

I was gonna say, I'm, I'm. I don't even know what to make of that. Ye, that's interesting.

[Andy Holloway]

And I'm on board with that as well. Which is a little different for me if you think about it this way. Right. If Gronk had an amazing year last year, if he played 15 or 16 games last year, he's drafted in the middle of the first round. The next year when he does that, the next year, he's a number one draft pick.

[Jason Moore]

He doesn't get injured anymore.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. As if he doesn't get injured anymore. But then he gets injured and it's like, well, he's now a late. Well, no, he's not. He's the same guy that was worthy of a first round pick. You're gambling on trying to get 16 games out of him. But maybe, maybe Brandon Cooks and more. What. I mean, maybe his, his usage goes down a little bit, which keeps him healthy, but he is a value. Right now he's at the 212.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, he's finally, I think the years of injury have finally knocked him back, especially with him missing later in the season. If you looked at that span there in October, November, the six games where he was healthy, his projected pace is like 1800 yards. I mean it's, it's, it's another tier.

[Jason Moore]

Unsustainable.

[Eric Dickinson]

Unsustainable, yes. But when you, when you can put out a six game stretch like that, you know, you've seen the career, you've seen the history. He's finished eighth, first, fourth first back to back in 2014 and 2015. Only injury has kept him out of the top three. That's it.

[Jason Moore]

And last year he was 24, so in. It took him about six games to be a tight end too.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

But I mean in this list you're going to find guys who are, have injury problems with top three upside and guys who are just kind of, they.

[Eric Dickinson]

Don'T get you up in the morning.

[Jason Moore]

If they play 15 or 16.

[Eric Dickinson]

Alex Smith would welcome them to the roster.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he would.

[Eric Dickinson]

So that bring. I want to, I want to transition now into number two. Number two in our consensus rank is Jordan Reed. All right, and you just, you just made the case for Rob Gronkowski and spending some earlier draft capital on, on Rob Gronkowski. Does Jordan Reed fall more into that nebulous uncertainty or does he, is he just kind of like, where are you with him compared to last year? Because he was 12 games last year, 14 the year before. He's never played a 16 game season in his four years in the NFL.

[Jason Moore]

And I believe the 12 is kind of the official, but just like Gronk.

[Eric Dickinson]

Has an official eight, but he really only played like six.

[Jason Moore]

Well, realistically, I mean, you remember after he took the hit that knocked his collarbone out of his body.

[Eric Dickinson]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

He still tried to play games and was completely useless until the final week of the season. So he was out there technically, but he wasn't really doing anything. So it's, I don't know the actual number. I would say, you know, it's probably nine games that he really played, but it's it's the same spot for Jordan Reed. Last price check on him was the back of the fourth round and for ppr, I mean that's, that's outrageous because Jordan Reed is, he's a bit different than these other tight ends where you have the high touchdown upside. But he's a 10 yard per catch guy where most tight ends, you know, they're in that 11 plus area and they always get a good chunk when they get a reception. But Jordan Reed is just, he's fed the ball. I think I mentioned this on the last show that when Jay Gruden was asked about the offense, he said the offense runs through Jordan Reed and that's.

[Eric Dickinson]

Why he gets hurt so much. They run right through him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. The reality is, right, we just talked about Gronk being worth that second round. You know, some years he's worth that first round now he's good value late second round in a PPR which is becoming more and more common. We play in half point all of our, you know, the footclan leagues dot com. Those are half points. When you get points per reception, full PPR. I have them statted out. You know, in our UDK, Gronk has 245 points on the season according to how I believe it's going to play out. Jordan Reed has 244.

[Eric Dickinson]

So you'll take him in the 412 versus 212.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. I'll take him in the back of the third to make sure I get him if I'm in a full point PPR league.

[Eric Dickinson]

And that would be a really tough call for me. And I see the logic behind it because the touchdown upside of Gronkowski, those weak winning performances, that, that might pull me up to him. But I mean, two rounds later for.

[Jason Moore]

Jordan Reed, Jordan Reed has those. I mean, just remember, you're going to.

[Eric Dickinson]

Need to draft them both if you want to tight end in there every week.

[Andy Holloway]

And look, you lose DeSean Jackson and you lose Pierre Garcon. Yes. You brought in, you know, Terrell Pryor and you have Dachshund coming up. But there's, there's no chemistry there. There's one guy, well, Crowder as well. But Jordan Reed has that chemistry. Risk versus reward on injury.

[Eric Dickinson]

I forgot to tease this earlier. We have a show after the show on YouTube today. Speaking of pain, speaking of injury and pain, we're going to get into some, what gruesome childhood injuries.

[Jason Moore]

Childhood? Yes.

[Eric Dickinson]

Just things that have happened to us.

[Andy Holloway]

Do they have to be gruesome?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Eric Dickinson]

I was just teasing It. That's how you sell something.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you won't believe injury number two.

[Eric Dickinson]

I will. You won't believe injury number two. I will tell you. One of the stories involves underpants.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, all right. My. My story involves rollerblades.

[Eric Dickinson]

Here's the. Okay. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

You had me at underpants.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right. Number three on our consensus top 15 or so tight ends, Travis Kelsey. Travis Kelsey, the number one tight end in 2016. We've talked about it at length. Last year was a bit of a down year for the tight end position as a whole. Obviously, these top two guys on our rankings both didn't play a full season. I think if either of them had. Oh, yeah, Travis Kelsey's not sitting there at the top of the list. That being said, Travis Kelsey, three straight years, 16 games. Three straight years a top 10 tight end. If a guy can be seven and eight in 2014 and 2015 and jump up to that 1, 2, 3 range like he did last year, you have to look at him and say, hey, if I draft Travis Kelsey, oh, man, that adp, though. If you draft.

[Jason Moore]

If you draft Travis Kelsey, he was number one.

[Eric Dickinson]

He's healthy, but he's being drafted ahead of Jordan Reed.

[Andy Holloway]

So where is his ADP right now, Andy?

[Eric Dickinson]

In PPR, it's 310.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Eric Dickinson]

In Standard, it's 405. And both of those are higher than Jordan Reed. I just can't see the. Look, the offense in Kansas City, they've installed a ceiling on that offense and his name is Alex Smith. And there's just the volume and the consistency levels there. It just brings me pause.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Eric Dickinson]

It brings me pause for those otherworldly type of games. I really like Travis Kelce. I think Travis Kelce could has every physical ability to put up a number one type of season.

[Andy Holloway]

He does have every physical ability to do that. And Travis Kelce was the most interesting guy. When I was going through stating maybe tied with Kyle Rudolph for me, these two guys, I really was intrigued by what I saw. When you look at the numbers, when you look at the film, you take everything together. Kelsey, you know, he missed his rookie year, right? So his rookie year was his sophomore year. But in that year, you know, he had 67 receptions. The next year, 72. The next year, 85. These are trending upwards. He is a freak of talent. I mean, there's no doubt that he is as capable as any other. You put Travis Kelce on the Patriots, and I'm not saying he is Gronk pretty close, but he is. He is going to Be definitely worth it. But when I was digging into like the knock on Kelsey is touchdowns, right. I mean, he's just not, he's not a crazy touchdown guy. Five touchdowns, five touchdowns. This last year, only four. But I looked into how they were using him and those, those valuable red zone targets for tight ends and one thing stuck out to me that was crazy. You have a list of guys, other.

[Jason Moore]

Guys, are these red zone or are.

[Andy Holloway]

These 10 and in. Right. The really truly valuable things. Because from the 10 to the 20, you know, it's not that crazy value. So inside the 10, Jordan Reed had eight targets. He got five touchdowns. Gronk had six targets, got five touchdowns. Gates had eight targets.

[Eric Dickinson]

How do you got a touchdown you can get? Do you score them or do you.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I got got.

[Eric Dickinson]

I didn't want, I didn't want to hear that like 45 more times the rest of the episode. So I apologize.

[Andy Holloway]

So Gates, eight targets, five touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

He took them.

[Andy Holloway]

So those are, those are great Titans. Cameron Bray, eight targets, four touchdowns. Martell's Bennett, seven targets, four touchdowns, all.

[Jason Moore]

Inside from, from the targets inside the 10.

[Andy Holloway]

And Travis Kelsey got eight targets inside the 10, but only one touchdown out of that. That. You know, when you talk about Cameron Bray and Hunter Henry is there and all those other guys, when you get that amount of targets, you should have more touchdowns for a tight end his size in that. So I think his touchdowns go up this next year.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, and I, and I, you know this, I said in the studio, I don't agree with you. I think, you know, you can look at a stat like that and say Travis Kelsey's not as good at scoring touchdowns than other tight ends. I mean, that's ridiculous. Why is it ridiculous? He's had five, five and four the past three years.

[Andy Holloway]

The reason it's ridiculous is because there's nothing in Travis Kelsey. When you, when you watch film, his ability to catch, his ability to box.

[Eric Dickinson]

Out, I don't agree with you. I think Travis Kelsey is not in, he's not in the Gronkowski mold. He is not.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I agree with that.

[Eric Dickinson]

He is a yards after the catch type of guy. And last year, to me, the reason he made the jump up is he went from the 60, 70 reception range to the mid-80s.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're. But what you're saying then is I agree he's not Gronk, but an old Antonio Gates, a young Hunter Henry, a Cameron Brait, all those guys. You're saying he doesn't have the ability to do inside the 10 what they.

[Eric Dickinson]

Did to some degree, yes. All right, I agree. I mean I disagree with the contention that his touchdowns go up. But look, the numbers, if you want to lean it on the side that Travis Kelsey isn't bad inside the 10, the numbers would come back, right? They'd come back to some better proportion of those targets being touchdowns. If that's the case, if Kelsey had eight touchdowns, he's a guaranteed lock. Is the top three tight end.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. So say the nice thing about you.

[Eric Dickinson]

Brought this up with Ti Hilton or some other wide receivers. There's not like when a guy is not heavily touchdown dependent like Tyler Ifert. So Travis Kelsey's not touchdown dependent. Play 16 games the last 3 years not touchdown dependent. Your, your risk on Travis Kelsey of him being outside the top 12 is like there's no chance other than injury.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Eric Dickinson]

And your upside, if you're right and he goes up to eight touchdowns, it's humongous. But him dropping, he's not going to go under four, so.

[Andy Holloway]

And if he does, it would be.

[Eric Dickinson]

So Travis Kelsey though, do you have him ranked ahead of Reed?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I've got him behind Reed.

[Eric Dickinson]

So do you take greed at the later 80?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm making the case for those who take for those who take Kelsey, but it won't be me in my drafts because of the value.

[Jason Moore]

The price is not worth it.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right, number four, Gregory. Gregory Olson.

[Jason Moore]

Jason's favorite player, Greg Olson.

[Eric Dickinson]

Look, the consistency is incredible for Greg Olson. Since 2012, he's finished 6, 7, 4, 53 his ADPs in the fifth round in a standard league. It's just at the end of the fourth in a PPR league. Last year I think there was this. We looked at the year and we said, okay, he started off on fire. The story there, Jason trading for him and then what happened at the back half of the year? Cam Newton wasn't the same player last year. Cam Newton statline wasn't the same last year. But Greg Olson is the same guy. He plays almost every snap, which you love, right. He doesn't come out the field.

[Jason Moore]

I took a look back because I just wanted to see how intense that was. And of the last 80 games, 51 times he has played 100% of the snaps.

[Andy Holloway]

It's an iron man.

[Jason Moore]

That's ridiculous.

[Eric Dickinson]

He's played what, 16 games every single year since 2008. So he's going to be on the field.

[Jason Moore]

He's a beast.

[Eric Dickinson]

Talk about like, you know, between Kelsey and Olson at what we have at three, four and the two, two guys at the very Top. Yeah, this is all risk aversion here.

[Jason Moore]

It absolutely. Well, it's the ceiling. I mean Greg Olson, he has. When, when everything switched for Greg Olson of everyone jumping on saying, oh, he's a top three guy, it was because he had a, a bit of a higher touchdown a year. But he, that's just, that's not who he is. I mean you talked about Kelsey's targets from inside the 10. Greg Wilson had two receptions that of targets from inside the 10. One was a nine yard touchdown, one was a, a negative two loss. It just he's. And then you look at his, the pace when he started, you thought, well, he's on fire. He's going to be the best tight end. He had 94.1 PPR points. Right. He was on a pace for 188. Travis Kelsey had 180. Yeah, it's.

[Eric Dickinson]

It.

[Jason Moore]

So it wasn't actually that great. It was just he had a couple monster games at the beginning of the season and we talk about this all the time. When a guy goes off in, around in the first four games, it burns in your memory of this is what I expect for the rest of the year.

[Eric Dickinson]

Is there a team makeup in fantasy that would justify a Kelsey or Olson pick directly over Olson or Gronkowski at the exact same draft position? Do you see what I'm saying? Like if you look at Reed and Gronkowski each in the last four years, there are zero combined seasons of 16 games.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Eric Dickinson]

You look at Kelsey and Olson, every single season is 16 games in the last four years for both of them. So is there an argument that can be made in your mind if you have a team, let's say you have some more risky players on your team. Is there a reason to just draft Greg Olson ahead of Jordan Reed? Is there a reason? I'm just saying you're on the clock. You're sitting there 405 and all four guys are on the board. Is there any situation where you would say, hey, my team has a certain makeup so I'm going to take Travis Kelsey.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait, all four as in Gronk as well?

[Eric Dickinson]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

If we take him out then I could say yes.

[Eric Dickinson]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I wouldn't. I mean the ceiling is too high. But I do think, I mean, one of the, you know, the quick question of the day was streaming tight ends and quarterbacks, both are valuable. But I will say this. When you are weekly, every single week, streaming both becomes a little bit more difficult because you've got to pay more for fab and more waiver wire you got to drop more guys. So when you grab a Greg Olson, that frees you up that roster spot where you know you're not going to be streaming, the position gives you a little bit more security. And if you know you're a late round quarterback, which if you listen to the show, I'm sure you are, then that, that is, that has a helpful nature to the way that you play.

[Eric Dickinson]

I know we have to bust through these tight ends and we have a lot on the list, but another question is popping into my mind that I just have to ask you guys. Let's say you took Gronkowski at the back of the second round. Okay. Let's say you're in the fifth round.

[Jason Moore]

Zero percent chance. I already know what you're going to ask.

[Eric Dickinson]

Would you take Jordan reed in the fifth? Because 0% even in. If you have a league with a flex position, you don't think that the value could be there for Jordan Reed with the touchdown totals or reception totals.

[Jason Moore]

And people frequently ask about this, especially.

[Eric Dickinson]

When it was a preemptive strike from our listeners on their behalf.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and they often, when it was Gronk and Graham was, I'm going to take them both because the problem with.

[Eric Dickinson]

That Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski years ago.

[Jason Moore]

The problem with that is, I mean, maybe your league has two tight end slots. All right, that's a completely different argument. But if you're talking about for the flex, it's flex, it's a flexible spot. If you take two tight ends that early, that is not a flexible spot anymore. You are locked into playing two tight ends or you're playing the game of, well, I'm going to draft him and I'm going to trade him later. It's just, and I think that's not a game I play.

[Andy Holloway]

I think more importantly than that is what you are losing. You are now saying that in two of your top five picks you don't get another running back or wide receiver, which you need multiple players every week. So yeah, I mean, that's my worry is they might be worth it points wise, but you're losing out on more important positions.

[Eric Dickinson]

Well, Jordan Reed last year, I know he missed some time. That would have put him in the Jordan Matthews range of total points scored in terms of what he put up last year, which is like, I don't know, wide receiver 40 or something like that. If you look at what Kelsey put up, however, you're in the wide receiver 17 range, 18 range. Just for perspective.

[Jason Moore]

That's gross.

[Eric Dickinson]

Julian Adelman, Demarius Thomas. I mean, obviously, if Demarius Thomas is sitting there in the fifth round, there's no chance, no chance on earth you're taking Travis Kelsey or Jordan Reed.

[Andy Holloway]

Do not draft two tight ends unless you have to start.

[Eric Dickinson]

Public service announcement. Number five on our list. The much he's begrudged. Jimmy Graham.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, much.

[Eric Dickinson]

Maligned. That's a better word for it. Look, you just have to look at the consistency numbers. Brooks put together this doc, showing you kind of the rankings and the consistency of these tight ends. Look, he had the major injury, but you go back to 2011, here's his ranks and how we finished the season. Two one breeze, three breeze 18, which was the injury year, and then four last year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, no, it was last year.

[Eric Dickinson]

And they used him. They used him and they looked to use him on the field, and he came back from the injury and nobody expected the season that we had here, and nobody's expecting it again because he's going in in the middle of the sixth round.

[Jason Moore]

So here's my thing for Jimmy Graham. I can absolutely astonishing comeback from the injury that, that he suffered. I mean, tip of the cap to the work ethic of Jimmy Graham busting his butt to get back where it's interesting for Graham. And you don't have. There is no definitive answer for this. His first eight games, he came out, you know, pretty. Pretty on fire for a tight end. He was. He was the tight end four in points per game, 38 receptions, 545 yards and three touchdowns. That's the first eight games. The second eight games, though. So I guess the second half of the season, tight end 12 and points per game, which is still okay. That's still okay. He ended up finishing tight end nine. But where it becomes interesting, you have to figure out what narrative do you want to buy into? Did he wear down the second half of the year? Completely possible with the injury that he suffered, but you would think that his production would actually go up because the second half of the year, that's when Russell Wilson was actually healthy, when he could actually extend plays, run around. And you can see that in Russell Wilson's rushing yards when he went about 4x in the second half of the season. So it was with that the playability.

[Eric Dickinson]

To extend things, it brings you some pause.

[Jason Moore]

Why did Jimmy Graham's production not. Why did it come down so much?

[Eric Dickinson]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and another thing, I would just say as a little point of worry. And I like Jimmy Graham. He's, I think, my number six, personally, my number six tight end this Year is you look at all of those guys. I just. When we were arguing about whether Travis Kelsey's eight targets should yield more, I named a bunch of other guys that had seven, eight targets. Jimmy Graham had two targets inside of the 10 on the year.

[Eric Dickinson]

Those have to go up.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe, or maybe that's just how they're using it. Maybe they get down there and they're trying to run the ball and they. I hope they're not using them to block. That's. That's fruitless.

[Eric Dickinson]

But two targets inside the 10 is. Is unprecedented for Jimmy Graham because he's an ISO guy. You throw him out on the outside, you ISO him on an LB or a db and you just throw him up and throw the ball.

[Andy Holloway]

I would say this. I do think that your assertion that it would go up is the right call he had as far as inside the 20. You know, most people just look at red zone. He had 17 targets inside the 20, but only two were inside the 10.

[Eric Dickinson]

They just need to scooch it up.

[Andy Holloway]

Scooch. Just get a little close.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right. Number six on our consensus rankings is my number four guy, a guy I have ahead of Travis Kelsey, the aforementioned, and Jimmy Graham.

[Jason Moore]

That seems pretty high. Andy.

[Eric Dickinson]

Tyler, Eiford.

[Jason Moore]

Where do I have him?

[Eric Dickinson]

Oh, gosh. Where do you have him? Tell me, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Number three, baby.

[Eric Dickinson]

Sure. Okay, so I got him for that. Means Jason's pulling him down.

[Andy Holloway]

Pulling him way down.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Jason's holding on all the way.

[Andy Holloway]

Down to number, trying to bring him.

[Eric Dickinson]

To the front of the line. And Jason's holding on to his ankles, yanking him behind. I don't blame him because the guy can't stay healthy. But Tyler Ifert is my number four. Mike's number three, our consensus number six, and he is being drafted ahead of Jimmy Graham. And I would take him ahead of Jimmy Graham as well. I mean, Tyler Ifert, when he's on the field, I think he's the highest efficiency points per fantasy points per target of any tight end in the league. But you're betting on him being able to stay on the field.

[Jason Moore]

But. So here's the thing. We are on. We're on. We're on tight end number six with Tyler Iford. We've discussed two guys who are actually safe. So for me, it's all about draft price and the possible return on that risk. And Tyler Iford is. He has top three potential. He's a touchdown machine. We've already seen that high risk. He's never played 16 games. I had a fun fact down here. That his career yards is 1491 yards. That's in four seasons. That's only 164 yards more than Gronk had in his second season, like one season. So I just thought that was kind of funny for how long if it has played. But when he was on the field last year, weeks eight through 14, so that takes off his first game back in his injury game out he was the tight end one in points per game. The yardage came up. That was the, the knock on IFRT when I was out on him last year was. It was. The yardage wasn't there and his draft price was way too high for me. But as of right now, these guys who are in that upper tier of tight end who can finish high and really be a difference maker every single week, I think IFRT is the guy who I'm looking at putting my chips on in the middle in the back of the fifth round.

[Eric Dickinson]

What you saw from Ivory last year wasn't much different than what you saw from him during his breakout season. If you project his games last year over the season, it's 58 for 788 and his breakout year he was 52 for 615 and 13. So he's not going to be an 85 catch guy. That's not going to happen with Tyler, however. He's a touchdown monster. I mean he's a double digit guy. And if there's anybody I was going to bet on with double digit touchdowns other than Gronkowski over a full healthy season, I'm betting on IFRT above them all.

[Andy Holloway]

I would agree with that. But you just spoke to why he's my number seven and I don't have him quite as high because you know, while we, while I said, you know, I would consider taking Jordan Reed, you know, late third, I don't need to. He's back of the fourth and Eifert is early fifth. So they're near each other and I would much rather have the guy who's also had double digit touchdowns who can get up near 100 receptions because he's the center of the offense. There's no doubt AJ Green is the center of the offense for Tyler Ifert personally. There, there are guys later and I'm going to segue right into my favorite guy this year, Kyle Rudolph.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I don't blame you.

[Eric Dickinson]

Jordan Reed's ADP is going to ruin everybody, isn't it? His ADP being so low. I mean it seems like out of all these decisions, his ADP being so low makes him the best decision out of a lot of these guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Not for me. For me, I would rather have Kyle Rudolph than Jordan Reed.

[Eric Dickinson]

Because his ADP is ridiculous.

[Andy Holloway]

Because his adp and I'm talking ppr right where he is very valuable. Because I mean, he.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, I believe he led. He was second in the league, number one in targets.

[Jason Moore]

He led in targets.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Because he's got Sammy biscuits.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Most accurate quarterback of all time.

[Andy Holloway]

And so you've got Kyle Rudolph here, who is almost in the ninth round. I would much rather spend a third, fourth and fifth round draft pick on another running back and another wide receiver that I really love and grab Kyle Rudolph. We talked about, you know, the consistency of even. Even Kelsey, you know, who finished number one. He still had a lot of weeks where. Where he kind of crapped the team. Kyle Rudolph didn't. Kyle Rudolph was tied with Greg Olson for the most amount of helpful games. And when I was thinking about, you know what, okay, so Sam Bradford. We have to remember the truth of what happened last year in Minnesota. Sam Bradford got there a minute before the regular season started.

[Jason Moore]

He pulled up as the first game.

[Eric Dickinson]

Was going on, ran straight out there.

[Andy Holloway]

To the point where he didn't start week one because he didn't know the offense. And so I think it's completely legitimate. Like, obviously there are just massive problems of saying, well, this guy did good the second half of the year. And so you extrapolate that out. But for the case of the Minnesota.

[Jason Moore]

That'S like my favorite argument, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Right, I know. But for the case of the Minnesota Vikings, I think the second half of the season is just a little bit more indicative of kind of how their offense is wanting to work and will work with Sam Bradford because, I mean, they didn't have a training camp. They didn't have a preseason. They didn't have anything. They had week two as their preseason game one and the second half of the year, even though Rudolph was still good in the first half, he was unbelievable. We're talking 100 receptions, 1,000 yards. And we've seen in the past he can get touchdowns. He got red zone opportunity. If he's going by the 9th. I just like that value much more.

[Jason Moore]

I didn't realize that he was all the way back there. I'm pulling up the Fantasy Football Calculator ADP Again because this is. Is this accurate of 812.

[Andy Holloway]

So.

[Jason Moore]

But I'm saying 812 and PPR and 712 and standard. What are the people, what are the.

[Eric Dickinson]

PPR people doing, giving him the Jason Whiton treatment.

[Jason Moore]

He turned into a PPR guy with Sam Bradford.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah. Now I love him. I. All the arguments for Kyle Rudolph of that ADP are solid.

[Jason Moore]

Only five games under eight targets for Kyle Rudolph.

[Eric Dickinson]

You know who's going ahead of you? Number eight on our consensus ranks or. Actually, he's not going ahead. He's going just behind. But in ppr, he's going ahead, and that's Zach Ertz. Zach Ertz, the last two years actually finished the year ninth and sixth as a fantasy tight end. Last year, you had the inverse of Sam Bradford. You had him leaving and you had a rookie coming in. And that rapport that we loved, the things we love about Kyle Rudolph, those all were manifesting with Sam Bradford. At the end of the year in 2015, we expected Ertz to come out and be on fire. He got it together back half of the year. That's been the story for Zachary. It's the last two years, the second half of the season, he's Basically the number one tight end.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he is.

[Eric Dickinson]

So nice value 907. But Andy Vopo. Vopo.

[Andy Holloway]

But didn't Alshon Jeffrey come and didn't Torres Smith.

[Eric Dickinson]

It actually is a downgrade to me. I mean, those two guys showing up, good job.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe not good public opinion.

[Andy Holloway]

I did it.

[Eric Dickinson]

I got something right. Maybe not the Torrey Smith part of your argument, but Alshon Jeffrey arriving. It does. It does give me pause on the, like, unlimited upside of Zach Ertz. I do think he's going to be in that 75 catch and above range. So for him, much like Travis Kelsey, he just doesn't find the end zone very often. And did you happen to look at Zach Ertz's targets inside the 10?

[Andy Holloway]

I can pull them up for you.

[Eric Dickinson]

I would love to know that. Just pure curiosity. No agenda other than I want to be right.

[Jason Moore]

I can tell you. I can tell you. This is what we have in the first nine games. I have the red zone data, but first nine games, three red zone targets. Last five games, when his production went insane, he had 11 red zone targets.

[Eric Dickinson]

And he only scored four touchdowns on the year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So he's. I mean, he's put him in the. In the fantasy football strategy of second half, when you're trading, when you're acquiring Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin. Let's get Zach Ertz.

[Eric Dickinson]

There are tight ends that I just like. Running backs, right? You got red zone running backs, and you got those between the 20 guys. I'd love Zach Ertz and Travis kelsey, between the 20s and then I'd like to like Usher in Gronkowski and Ifer for that inside the 10 yard line.

[Andy Holloway]

To answer your question, to support your argument, which actually supports my argument, Zach Ertz got five targets inside the 10. He did score two touchdowns on the five targets. A reminder. Kelsey got eight targets, only got one touchdown.

[Eric Dickinson]

Reminder.

[Andy Holloway]

In case, you know, you know, you missed it. All right, 20 minutes ago.

[Eric Dickinson]

Number nine, Delaney Walker. Number 10, Eric Ebron. On our consensus top tight end early 2017 rankings. Delaney Walker went out, put up another great season. Always plays 15 games. For some reason, he takes one off every year. He's literally played 15 games.

[Jason Moore]

A man loves to fish. What do you do about it?

[Eric Dickinson]

There's one good weekend.

[Jason Moore]

Those bass, they're biting Tennessee.

[Eric Dickinson]

Look, the last four years, 11, 8, 4, 5. The story here is we expect and keep expecting Tennessee to bring in more help at the wide receiver position. Hasn't happened yet. We can watch the draft, but I mean, any reason why Delaney Walker isn't going to do what he's been doing?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, he's.

[Eric Dickinson]

I mean, I don't want to, I don't want to draft him in the six. I don't think in that you're still.

[Jason Moore]

Paying the ADP price for that break. Yeah. For that monster year. But that's. I'm not expecting that you have that sandwiched between almost two identical years in 14 and 16.

[Eric Dickinson]

He's a mid-60s guy where.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's great. He's the type of a tight end that you can get and you plop in there. Which. Where I think plop him in your tight end.

[Eric Dickinson]

He's a plopper.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And I think Delaney Walker is better than streaming. And you put him in, you forget about it. But you're never going to. You're not going to end up with a top four guy. Top. I mean, I guess he had. He was number four in 2015 in his monster season. So I will say you will not get a top three guy from Delaney Walker. So your upside is going to be capped.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And while we, while we say we keep waiting for them to bring someone in, they are going to. I mean, I will be blown away if they don't draft a wide receiver and. Or a tight end as well. And we can't ignore the age elephant in the room. He's going to be 33 this year. Which tight ends can play later. And his game, I don't think requires, you know, crazy. You know, he's not going down the field for 40 yards.

[Eric Dickinson]

Jason Whitten.

[Andy Holloway]

Right, Exactly. But he's just uninteresting to me. He's not going to win me a fantasy championship is how I feel. And he's going to cost me in the sixth round. There are good wide receivers there.

[Eric Dickinson]

This guy, surprisingly, probably the most surprising guy on our list, being in our top 10. This guy could win you a championship if you're drafting him with your last pick, because that's about where he's going into the 13th round. Eric Ebron. The endless optimism surrounding Eric Ebron's potential continues from Jason Moore, from. From all of us, I think.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, really, I've just always. I feel like maybe it's because I've said too many nice things.

[Eric Dickinson]

I have Eric ebron at number eight. All right, okay. I got Eric Ebron at number eight. Last year he only played 13 games. Look, 61 for seven, 11 only scored one touchdown.

[Andy Holloway]

You.

[Eric Dickinson]

You want to talk about a guy that the math doesn't add up on the touchdown totals. It's Eric Ebron for me. It adds up enough for me on the Kelsey totals just because he's never put up more than five. Eric Ebron had one touchdown last year. One. Otherwise, he was pretty darn good in 13 games.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And. And again, he only played 13. And it's completely fair to say. Okay, well, what's the pace of that on 16? That's a 75 reception year. He was very involved. And, you know, there's. There's rumors in the draft that maybe they'll go out and they'll get in Joku. Or they'll get some. Then. Then I will bump. Well, if that were to happen, I would bump them down if they don't want to, you know, keep paying for Eric Ebron. But the dude is. He has gotten so much flack because he was drafted number 10 and he's supposed to be the superstar right now. Three days ago was his birthday where he turned 24. Happy birthday. He is a young man, and in his first three years, I mean, tight ends take.

[Jason Moore]

He's never heard that Vanessa Williams song, you never.

[Andy Holloway]

And his.

[Eric Dickinson]

In his life, saving the best for last.

[Andy Holloway]

The thing is, is, is that tight ends always take a while to really come into their own. And we're writing them off after three seasons where he was basically 20, 21.

[Eric Dickinson]

I don't know if we're writing them off. We're just kind of like looking at them.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm saying the fantasy community. I don't think we are. I mean, he. He went from 25 receptions to 47 receptions to 61 receptions. And you talk about the drops. Oh, he drops passes. He got 71% of his passes last year. There's a couple memorable drops they stick in your head and they write a bad narrative. I think that if they don't draft someone else, he's going to be involved and he's fine in, in where you're drafting him.

[Eric Dickinson]

He was a five touchdown guy the year before on 15 less targets. If you remember, this was the Tyler Iford story too. Before the breakout year for Tyler. If it was kind of like we're just waiting for something to happen. I think you just have to keep.

[Jason Moore]

If it's weight was much shorter to be fair.

[Eric Dickinson]

Agreed, agreed. But Eric Ebron has the draft pedigree and the age and the quarterback and the consistency in that offense that makes you say, hey 13th round, take the guy, put him in your lineup and watch for three weeks.

[Jason Moore]

I like, yeah, I have him as my number 12 and half point. Right. Right now. But that, the fact that he's going in the 13th round is. I could, I can get in on that if you're waiting.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean if he doesn't work out straight.

[Eric Dickinson]

The resistant. The resistant draft, where do you have him?

[Jason Moore]

I have him at 12, so I have him as one.

[Eric Dickinson]

Where do you have him?

[Andy Holloway]

I think I've got him right at 10. Let me look.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, I mean I just like the upside with the drop position.

[Jason Moore]

And also I think that the 13th round nine is very correlated with when people bought into Eric Ebron. If you remember last year, he had this stretch of games where he was, was looked like this. It was happening. It's happening for Eric Ebron. 79 yards, 92 yards. I'm picking them up. 70 yards and then, and then that was the week and then nothing. Literally you get nothing, you get no reception.

[Andy Holloway]

That was probably the week that he was the most started in the entire year.

[Eric Dickinson]

Like starting percent I agree that's that's the kind of thing that pushes an ADP down three rounds. I mean that's from where it, where it probably belongs because everybody's looking at him disappointingly because he pleasantly disappointed. All right, hey, 11, 12, 11 and 12 on a consensus. Top tight end rankings. Cameron Brait, Jack Doyle. The story with Cameron Bray last year was, you know, major ascension. Austin Severian, Jenkins gone after two games. A lot of targets. You have DeSean Jackson coming in there this season. You didn't really have a productive running game in Tampa Bay last year. We have him at number 11, he finished seven last year. I think 11 is the right spot for Cameron Braid. I really do.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Eric Dickinson]

Or as my rankings say, 15 is the right spot. But 11 is the right spot for all of us.

[Andy Holloway]

I would be surprised. I mean, if he doesn't regress touchdown wise, his touchdown number was extremely efficient. Now you add to Sean Jackson in there. So Cameron Braid's a guy I'm not super excited about. Even though he finished well last year, Loved him last year. I just think that there are. There's enough reasons where he can be the starting tight end and be productive for fantasy. But there's no reasons for me to say this guy's going to step up.

[Eric Dickinson]

Or have a chance at top three.

[Andy Holloway]

Or even top five. I am sure that he's going to repeat. I'm pretty confident he's going to step back a little. That's all I have to say about.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I like him. I'm not worried about DeSean Jackson at all. Taking away, you had so last year, Mike Evans had 12 touchdowns, Cameron Braid had eight. And then you had this laundry list of guys with two, two or less. And Jameis Winston, While granted, I don't have the numbers in front of me, but Jameis Winston through college, through his pro career, he does favor the tight end. Last year, 31% of Tampa Bay's red zone targets went to the tight end. That's sixth in the league. So it just. I don't think they're going to get away from him. It's fair to expect his touchdowns to go down. I was going to say I'll water.

[Eric Dickinson]

Bet you on five or less touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I'll take that.

[Eric Dickinson]

You'll take it?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Hey.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Water bet.

[Jason Moore]

We haven't had a bet in years.

[Eric Dickinson]

It feels that way.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to stay out of this one, but I would be on Andy's side, I think. Five or less.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right, Jack Doyle, number 12. Goodbye, Dwayne Allen. Hello. Jack Doyle last year finished number 13. I think that there is a lot of optimism out there. I'm not going to jump in on the Jack Doyle bandwagon. I think Jack Doyle comes out and does exactly what he did last year, which is not somebody I draft. I mean, he's 59 for 584 and five touchdowns. I think Eric Swoop is. Is it Swoop or Swope?

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's Swope.

[Eric Dickinson]

I think it's pronounced Swope, but it's spelled Swoop.

[Andy Holloway]

It's Jalen Richard. Yeah, whatever.

[Eric Dickinson]

Whatever it is. Both of them. Both Swoop and Swope will affect Jack Doyle this year.

[Jason Moore]

It's actually swappy.

[Eric Dickinson]

Oh, okay.

[Jason Moore]

We've all had a wrong the whole time.

[Eric Dickinson]

Look, the deal with Jack Doyle is going to do more Andrew Luck in real life than he will do for your fantasy team. I've got him. I got him down the list. I don't know who's pulling him up into the 12 range. I got him right around 13, so guess it's me.

[Jason Moore]

I like Jack Doyle. I like his quarterback. Well, we like his quarterback and we like the fact that his quarterback favors the tight end. 38% of red zone touchdowns or 30% of red zone touchdowns. Man, I'm having a hard time getting this to the, to the tight end for Indianapolis. Dwayne Allen is gone. Maybe.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Eric Dickinson]

No Moncrief last year though. How big is he in the red zone? I mean that's.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Eric Dickinson]

Dwayne Allen in the red zone.

[Jason Moore]

Jack. Jack Doyle did get paid. So if you want to buy into that narrative, which it factors in to how I believe that they will use him, you had. This is a very small sample size, granted, but we have. This was Jack Dwell's breakout year. Two games without Allen. Dwayne Allen, he was almost six ppr points more. He had the one game where he was the guy. He was the focal point of the offense. Went 9 for 78 with a touchdown. I just think that there is a lot to like about Jack Doyle, especially considering that he's going to be free.

[Eric Dickinson]

Why is he a streamer for you then?

[Jason Moore]

He's. He's the type of guy that if, if I miss out on Reed or ifrt and I guess I'll throw Rudolph into that list as well and I just completely punt. Doyle is going to be one of my late round target.

[Eric Dickinson]

Number 13 is Hunter Henry. 14 is Martellus Bennett. And 15 is Antonio Gates. What do we know about Hunter Henry? What do we think about him coming into the season? I'm very optimistic about Hunter Henry. I have him at number 10 in my standard list. I don't think the touchdown totals are an outlier for Hunter Henry. In fact, I think he's one of those guys that I put in that double digit potential this year. He only had 36 catches. Eight of them were touchdowns. Where do you see Hunter Henry who put in this tight end year two blossom?

[Jason Moore]

I did. I took a look at tight ends who really. They broke out their second year. You saw some guys who have huge reception jumps. Jimmy Graham jumped up over 60 receptions. Gronk 50. Jason Whitten over 50. And the counterpoint to Hunter Henry, Antonio Gates had a monster jump from 24 to 81 receptions. So a big jump is possible for Hunter Henry. I just wanted. Historically, it's not unprecedented to see a guy, a tight end take the leap in year two. However, guys who come in with big touchdowns their rookie year, which. Hunter Henry had the second most touchdowns from a tight end rookie since 2000. The number one was Gronk. They just don't. That number does not take a huge jump. I mean, it's possible he gets to 10, but my problem with Hunter Henry and I have a much lower than you guys do is Antonio Gates is coming back and, and he's free.

[Eric Dickinson]

Whereas Henry for some reason is in the seventh round. So as much as I like Henry.

[Jason Moore]

Because people are buying into the young guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Eric Dickinson]

I wouldn't spend a seventh round pick on Hunter Henry.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, you guys just said both sides of it. Hunter Henry was drafted as a, you know, coming out of college, he looked like he was going to be one of the better tight ends. He came to a team that uses the tight end and when Gates leaves, Hunter Henry is fantastic. He's one of my favorite dynasty tight ends. But this year while Gates is there, it's. He's not just getting the job over Gates.

[Eric Dickinson]

Henry in the 7th or Martellus Bennett in the 10th. Standardly, who would you take?

[Andy Holloway]

Bennett? I'd rather get a seventh round wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

I would, I'd probably take Henry.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right, number 15 is Antonio Gates. He's been a top 12 tight end every single season since 2004. Does it stop this year? Is it over this year? Because I think it is. I think it's over this year, but I still think he's going to give you some good games.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's, it's, it's all about the touchdowns for, for Hunter Henry, I was going to say 42% of his touchdown or fantasy points came from touchdowns, which was the highest for a top 20 tight end. And Tony Gates was third on that list with 34% of his points came from touchdowns. So I just, I think that he can still finish in the top 12. It's possible, but I have, I believe I have both Gates and Henry slightly outside. Just kind of destroying each other's value.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right, so guys, name me a tight end not mentioned on the show so far today. So outside the top 15 that you think has the potential to finish in the top 15. So this would be a sleeper tight end. Give me a name. Who is it? Mike. Mike, why don't you give me.

[Jason Moore]

Sure, I'll jump in here. This is major, major, major risk as far as will this guy actually come through? I don't know what his current ADP is. I imagine it's probably in the 10th, but Jake, can you pull that up?

[Andy Holloway]

It is in the 12th.

[Jason Moore]

The 12th. Okay. But Ladarius Green, it's known the story with him last year signed a lucrative contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Then all this weird news of is he going to retire? He's still not over a concussion issue. He played just a handful of games last year, but in those games he made a huge impact, almost 17 yards. Perception, I mean, he was a huge play guy that. It was finally that the Twitter crowd, you know, free Ladarius Green and from San Diego, we just wanted to see it. You saw, you caught a glimpse, a tiny, tiny little glimpse of it from Pittsburgh. So if he can in fact play, you know, 14 or more games, I think Ladarius Green is an easy tight end one, but the percentage chance that he plays 14 or more games, I would put like the 20% mark.

[Eric Dickinson]

Jason, who's your sleeper?

[Andy Holloway]

Very similarly, and he's going one pick later for tight end sake, is Zach Miller. Zach Miller is a guy who, I mean, if you buy our ultimate draft kit, you're going to see one of the highest numbers you can get when it comes to the risk rating on this guy. He didn't play a game in 2012 or 2013 or 2014. Like literally missed three years.

[Jason Moore]

He's like Tim Hightower.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, 2015 was his sabbatical, Jason. Yeah, his second rookie season, he's been very injury prone. However, look, Zach Miller has been very productive when he's on the, on the field. In fact, through week 11 last year, he was the tight end five. So you know, he can get it done as a top 10 guy. Obviously, Alshon's gone, which I think could help him, but Glennon comes in. Glennon used him right in his rookie year. So I think Zach Miller could be one of those guys that finishes the year as a top 10.

[Eric Dickinson]

I'll throw out the reception leader at the position.

[Jason Moore]

It's not a bad way to go.

[Eric Dickinson]

Which is Dennis Pitta. He had 86 receptions last year, only two touchdowns. But in PPR leagues he finished number eight. So I'll throw him out there as a guy who outside the top 15 in our rankings has the potential to be in there if he can somehow put up more than a couple touchdowns. Historically, he's had a seven touchdown year before, but you got to go back to 2012 for it.

[Andy Holloway]

So no Steve Smith.

[Eric Dickinson]

Yeah, no Steve Smith.

[Jason Moore]

You know, no Kamar Akin, Am I right? True.

[Eric Dickinson]

I'm. I just throw him out there. No, he's certainly a streaming guy that I'd be really, really excited to stream in certain matches.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's. Those touchdowns were so bizarre from Dennis Pitta, but ppr, man, that guy is. That is about as steady as you can go.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right, that does it for today's early 2017 tight end ranking episode. Hope you enjoyed it. If you haven't listened to our running back and our wide receiver episodes yet, go ahead and, you know, scroll on your podcast app and click on those. Subscribe to the show. A lot of good information in there. And then next week we're going to come back with our quarterbacks. We'll be getting into rookies soon, so you know who to pay attention to for the upcoming NFL draft.

[Jason Moore]

It's coming.

[Eric Dickinson]

Oh, I cannot wait.

[Jason Moore]

It's coming.

[Eric Dickinson]

Cannot wait. So thanks for tuning in. We will be back. We'll be on YouTube right after the show. For the show. After the show. Underpants.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Eric Dickinson]

All right. That's all I need to say.

[Jason Moore]

Check out fantasyjocks.com for some trophies. The promo code is footballers.

[Eric Dickinson]

See ya.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.