Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early Top 12 QB + Draft Predictions

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Episode Summary Episode: Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early Top 12 QB + Draft Predictions
Release Date: April 18, 2017

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into their Early Top 12 Quarterback Rankings and provide insightful Draft Predictions for the upcoming fantasy football season. Skipping over advertisements and casual banter, the trio offers a comprehensive analysis aimed at helping fantasy managers build winning teams.

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1. Introduction to Quarterback Rankings

The episode kicks off with the hosts announcing their focus on quarterbacks, stressing the importance of this position in fantasy football. Mike Wright highlights the lack of appreciation for Drew Brees in the fantasy community despite his consistent performance:

“I'm still Mesmerized by the lack of Drew Brees love that exists in the fantasy community for how good that guy has been for so long.” [02:44]

2. Detailed Analysis of Top Quarterbacks

a. Aaron Rodgers – #1 Ranked QB

Aaron Rodgers leads the pack due to his exceptional efficiency and touchdown prowess. The hosts commend his ability to minimize interceptions while maximizing touchdowns, particularly in the red zone.

“He's not going to get, you know, the interceptions, the back breaking interceptions that can kill you as a fantasy owner.” – Mike Wright [07:36]

Key Points:

• Consistency: Rodgers has been a top 10 QB for eight of the last nine years.
• Red Zone Efficiency: Achieves touchdowns on approximately 46.7% of red zone attempts.
• Statistical Dominance: Averaging 40 touchdowns and over 4,400 yards since 2011.

b. Andrew Luck – #2 Ranked QB

Andrew Luck is ranked second despite concerns over his team's offensive line and past injuries. The hosts express optimism for Luck's potential improvement with better team support.

“If you can just give him the time that he needs, he would be the number one quarterback.” – Jason Moore [12:00]

Key Points:

• Performance Potential: Projected to finish within the top three quarterbacks.
• Team Improvements: Expected enhancements in offensive line and offensive strategy.
• Consistency: Finished as a top QB in most games he played last season.

c. Tom Brady – #3 Ranked QB

Tom Brady remains a solid fantasy option despite his age. The discussion touches on his recent performance, including a suspension that limited his games last year.

“All signs certainly point to another year of greatness for Tom Brady.” – Andy Holloway [15:57]

Key Points:

• Experience: Proven track record of high fantasy production.
• Offensive Support: Acquisition of Brandon Cooks and return of key receivers.
• Age Factor: At 40, there are considerations about longevity and injury risk.

d. Drew Brees – #4 Ranked QB

Drew Brees is highlighted as the most underrated quarterback, consistently producing top-tier fantasy numbers but often overshadowed by contemporaries like Brady and Brees.

“I think he's the most underrated quarterback of all time...” – Jason Moore [23:01]

Key Points:

• Efficiency: High passing accuracy and consistent yardage.
• Weapon Availability: Maintains strong connections with receivers like Michael Thomas.
• Home Advantage: Performs significantly better at home compared to away games.

e. Matt Ryan – #5 Ranked QB

Matt Ryan is discussed as a reliable quarterback with potential for significant fantasy upside, especially with the revamped offensive line in Detroit.

“I like Matthew Stafford. I think he's one of my favorite guys to grab very late...” – Mike Wright [59:08]

Key Points:

• Consistency: Multiple seasons finishing in the top 8.
• Team Upgrades: Improved offensive line and added receivers like Theo Riddick.
• Potential Upside: Capable of surpassing previous performances with enhanced team support.

f. Russell Wilson – #6 Ranked QB

Russell Wilson’s ranking reflects his underperformance last season due to injuries that limited his mobility and effectiveness.

“He needs to be able to get out of the pocket. Find Doug Baldwin, find Jimmy Graham...” – Mike Wright [32:17]

Key Points:

• Injury Impact: Limited mobility affected both rushing yards and pocket protection.
• Recovery Potential: Expected to bounce back with full health and improved team dynamics.
• Consistency Issues: Last season marked a significant drop from his previous top 10 finishes.

g. Derek Carr – #7 Ranked QB

Derek Carr faces concerns regarding his touchdown efficiency and overall performance consistency.

“I have some concerns that you could have...there are certain guys that you slot in as guaranteed top 10 guys. For me, it's not that way with Derek Carr.” – Mike Wright [36:33]

Key Points:

• Efficiency Concerns: Lower touchdown rates despite high passing volume.
• Weapon Utilization: Impact of offensive weapons like Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson.
• Future Potential: Young quarterback with room for growth but not a locked top 10 option.

h. Dak Prescott – #8 Ranked QB

Dak Prescott receives praise for his rookie season, emphasizing his steady performance and efficiency.

“He was the only one of those five guys without a top three finish.” – Andy Holloway [43:00]

Key Points:

• Steady Performance: Consistently producing QB1 numbers almost every week.
• Rising Profile: Expected improvement with increased offensive support and experience.
• Rookie Impact: Demonstrated potential to be a reliable fantasy starter.

i. Jameis Winston – #9 Ranked QB

Jameis Winston is acknowledged for his high upside, especially with strong offensive weapons like Mike Evans and the addition of DeSean Jackson.

“Jameis is the only quarterback to throw for over 4,000 yards in his rookie and sophomore year.” – Andy Holloway [52:24]

Key Points:

• Rushing Ability: Additional value from rushing touchdowns.
• Weapon Support: Enhanced by receiving talents improving his passing efficiency.
• Potential: High ceiling with established wide receivers but variable consistency.

j. Kirk Cousins – #10 Ranked QB

Kirk Cousins is discussed with a focus on his strong passing yards but concerns over touchdown rates and team offensive dynamics.

“There's still plenty to like about him for fantasy football, even with some built-in concerns.” – Andy Holloway [49:45]

Key Points:

• Passing Volume: High yardage but moderate touchdown numbers.
• Team Changes: New offensive coordinator aimed at improving performance.
• Consistency: Maintains a reputation for being a reliable fantasy option despite some inefficiencies.

k. Philip Rivers – #11 Ranked QB

Philip Rivers is recognized for his historical consistency but faced recent declines in stats due to team injuries and offensive struggles.

“He's a guy who if you want 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, Philip Rivers, he's going to give it to you.” – Andy Holloway [56:53]

Key Points:

• Veteran Presence: Consistently high fantasy rankings over the years.
• Team Challenges: Injuries to key receivers have impacted his recent performance.
• Potential for Revival: With the return of Keenan Allen and better offensive strategies, Rivers could bounce back.

l. Matthew Stafford – #12 Ranked QB

Matthew Stafford rounds out the list with a discussion on his potential resurgence following team roster improvements, particularly on the offensive line.

“He's always going to be over 4,200 yards.” – Mike Wright [59:46]

Key Points:

• High Potential: Capable of top-five performances with enhanced team support.
• Team Upgrades: Improved offensive line and added offensive weapons to bolster his game.
• Injury Concerns: Recent hand injuries have raised questions about his consistency and performance.

3. Pre-Draft Predictions for Rookies

Responding to a listener's Twitter question, the hosts predict Leonard Fournette as their most fantasy-relevant rookie, expecting him to be a top running back due to his draft capital and potential high usage. They also discuss alternatives like Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey, emphasizing the importance of rookies who can provide immediate fantasy value.

“I would say Dalvin Cook because I think he does land in like maybe Philadelphia or a really, really good situation.” – Mike Wright [05:04]

4. Mailbag Segment

A listener named Joe from Pensacola inquires about the "wait on QB" strategy, specifically how far a top-tier quarterback should fall before drafting them versus selecting other high-value positions earlier.

“How far would a top tier quarterback have to fall before you would be comfortable taking him?” – Joe [61:38]

The hosts discuss the balance between securing a reliable quarterback late in the draft versus investing early in high-impact positions like running backs and wide receivers. They suggest that quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers in the sixth round are worthy of a pick but should be weighed against the value of elite players available at other positions.

5. Conclusion

Wrapping up the episode, the hosts encourage listeners to join their fantasy community at joinTheFoot.com, subscribe on various platforms, and engage with their content on social media. They tease future episodes focused on quarterbacks and other positions, ensuring fantasy managers stay informed and competitive.

“We exist to make your fantasy football league more fun, filled with more winning…” – Mike Wright [66:22]

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This episode serves as a robust resource for fantasy football enthusiasts, offering detailed quarterback rankings backed by statistical analysis and strategic insights. Whether you're preparing for your draft or seeking to refine your lineup, the Fantasy Footballers provide valuable perspectives to enhance your fantasy football experience.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

Hey, Foot Clan. Before we start today's show, I want to remind you that there is a place that you can go. There's a place with absolutely great fantasy football players. If you are in a horrible league with people who do not know how to play or are inactive or don't know what they're doing, check out foot clanleagues.com. everybody that's a member of the Foot clan [e-mail] gets access to these leagues. You can join dynasty leagues and keeper leagues, ppr, standard leagues from your state, leagues from across the world. There are a lot of leagues over there, so if you need one for this year, check it out. JoinTheFoot.com.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, we're back. Hey, welcome in to the show.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what I would love to see?

[Mike Wright]

What would you love to see, Mike?

[Andy Holloway]

The WWE equivalent of, like, our theme song, but as an intro for a. Just like a wrestler. Like, there's pyro going on.

[Mike Wright]

Can you sponsor a wrestler and have them make them use your theme song?

[Andy Holloway]

That is an excellent question that I do not have the answer to.

[Mike Wright]

We'd have to come up with that wrestler, the one that fits our personality.

[Andy Holloway]

He's the Foot.

[Mike Wright]

The Alex Smith.

[Jason Moore]

No, not your personality. Our.

[Mike Wright]

That's taken on a life of its own, hasn't it? Oh, I can't even post anything normal without getting 8 to 10 Alex Smith responses.

[Jason Moore]

I hope it goes through the entire year.

[Andy Holloway]

It's very funny.

[Mike Wright]

I got my lucky charms in the system, so I'm ready to go. Today we're talking quarterbacks.

[Andy Holloway]

So you'll be done halfway through this show.

[Mike Wright]

From the Sugar drop.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, I try to space them out. I don't know how you guys eat your Lucky Charms. I know some people save the charms.

[Andy Holloway]

By not eating them.

[Mike Wright]

No, that's not. Don't be stupid. Come on. Says the guy who. You've always got these weekends filled with food. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Not Lucky Charms.

[Mike Wright]

Carriage. Lucky Charms.

[Andy Holloway]

Not Lucky Charms.

[Mike Wright]

I could eat that as a snack every night. I could do it like five or six bowls. Year of health. Year of health. Welcome to the podcast. Early quarterback rankings. On today's show, going through the top 12 quarterbacks on our initial list. Some. Some deep dives into the research pool by everybody here. So we've got some interesting things to bring out about these guys. I. I will say this right out of the gate. I'm still Mesmerized by the lack of Drew Brees love that exists in the fantasy community for how good that guy has been for so long. I don't know why everybody doesn't set out every year to, to pick up Drew Brees.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's just, it's those, it's those nasty splits. The road. The road splits.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we'll be talking about that. Quick question of the day guys. This one comes in from Twitter at Brypot. He says pre draft predictions for the most fantasy relevant rookies in 2017. We have a rookie show coming up next Tuesday with Matt Harmon. He'll be on the show talking the wide receivers and we're going to talk through the quarterbacks and every position. Everybody wants to know who do I target right? And it's really hard without that team to attach the rookie to. That being said, give me a pre draft prediction for your most fantasy relevant rookie.

[Jason Moore]

I would say that, you know, before the draft I would put my chips on Leonard Fournette. The reason why is because predominantly the running back position for rookie year, fantasy production is the position you want. Quarterbacks don't usually, I mean Dak did it last year but usually quarterbacks don't matter. Tight ends certainly don't matter. Even in a great tight end class. Wide receivers, you have Odell, but you know, most of the time it's the running backs that succeed year one. And for me it's about draft capital. I expect Leonard Fournette to be the first running back off the board come the actual draft day. And if he does go in the top 10 picks, that means that team is saying you are a centerpiece of our office.

[Mike Wright]

You saw that with Zeke last year. You had to use him. You spent the fourth pick on him.

[Andy Holloway]

It's the Todd Gurley workload as well. So even, even if he's to me unfortunately drafted to the Jaguars, I just, I'm not, I'm not calling Fournettes the savior to the the Jaguars running game but with the volume he should be able to just through force of will.

[Mike Wright]

Be fantasy relevant for the sake of choosing somebody else. I mean I'll just say Dalvin Cook because I think he does land in like maybe Philadelphia are really, really good situation. So he's the guy that can be out there on third down. He could make impact plays on third down. You know, if you're and a half or full point. I'll just go with Dalvin Cook. I don't love the guy but I think his situation where he lands, he might Walk into Philadelphia, an offense that could be really good. The second year quarterback. So I'll throw his name out there. Although I agree Fournette's the likely candidate.

[Andy Holloway]

And then I'll just, I'll just trifecta this with another running back with Christian McCaffrey who I don't think will go as early as Fournette could be Denver, though, which means he could drop to a team like Denver, like the Colts, New Orleans.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, if McCaffrey goes to the Colts, he would be.

[Andy Holloway]

It's wheels up, man.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Or if Deontay Foreman goes to the New England patriots and becomes LeGarrett blunt, he might be my pick.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Yeah. So some. Look, the draft is not far away, so we are very excited about.

[Jason Moore]

We talk about it all week.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And when the draft happens, then we get to come in here and we get to discuss these fits and where guys are and, you know, we'll talk to the wide receivers too. Where does Corey Davis go? What are these big names? Go. If you want to follow the show, we're on twitterffballers if you're listening on itunes, we encourage you click that subscribe button so we can drop right into your pocket every single day. Going to be a very fun year. And the fantasy community is jointhefoot.com guys, we don't have a lot of news to talk about. We don't have any news to talk about. So let's talk quarterbacks.

[Jason Moore]

Quarterbacks.

[Mike Wright]

We got a flag football game tonight and I'm.

[Jason Moore]

Wait, who's our quarterback?

[Mike Wright]

And I'm a quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

All right, so you clearly have the most insight at the position.

[Mike Wright]

So this is your opportunity to kind of beg for targets from me.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to be protecting you as the best offensive lineman, so. Oh, don't worry about it.

[Mike Wright]

Everyone's eligible. All right, Number one. If he was available in our flag league, we'd probably go with him. Maybe Aaron Rodgers comes in at number one. Again, these are our consensus top 12 rankings. So if you want to see them in full, you can go to the website, the fantasy footballers.com we've all gone through and done our initial stating. So if you don't know how we do these, we go through and we project stat lines for these players. We don't just go in and say, hey, we think Rogers is number one, luck is number two, hint, hint. But we go in and we put in how, you know, how we're projecting them to finish. Last year, Aaron Rodgers finished as the number one quarterback 16 game season. He's been a top. What is that? Top 10 quarterback for eight of the last nine years. Top three in the majority of those years. I don't know what there is to say about Aaron Rodgers other than the fact that you're not going to get, you know, the interceptions, the back breaking interceptions that can kill you as a fantasy owner.

[Jason Moore]

And you will get the touchdowns which, you know, fantasy football lives and dies on the touchdown which is so hard to predict. But it's not that hard to predict with Aaron Rodgers. Mike, you have an incredible stat on.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So since 2011 when Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson play 12 or more games.

[Jason Moore]

Together, which is five complete seasons where that's happened. Four.

[Andy Holloway]

There's four in since 2011. But he averages 40 touchdowns in over 4,400 yards.

[Jason Moore]

Averages 40 touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

If Jordy's there and Rogers is there, I mean you're going to get insane fantasy production to the point of he should be the QB one and he was, he was our QB one last year. He'll likely be my QB one next year. I mean he just, he is so dominant but his draft price is always to a place where I don't want to pay for him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I will have Aaron Rodgers on exactly zero of my teams. That is not a dynasty roster because you just don't need to spend as high capital on whoever the first quarterback is going off the board. And there's also, look, he might have his best wide receiving or even just pass catching core that he has ever had in his entire career. It's possible with Devonte Adams now coming into his own. If Randall Cobb is healthy with Jordy, you add Martell. Spin it.

[Mike Wright]

That's great, Montgomery.

[Jason Moore]

But there are also reasons like look, he's going to be great. Is he going to be top five? Absolutely. But in the last 12 years there has not been a repeated number one quarterback in fantasy football. I mean it just does not. Not Aaron Rodgers, not Tom Brady, not Peyton Manning, not Drew Brees.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Rogers went 121 2.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

He's got to check the microphone.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he'll be, you know that number two. He also had 610 attempts this last year, which the five previous years his 16 game pace was 541. So you know, look, he's going to be great third round.

[Mike Wright]

If he's there third round.

[Jason Moore]

I wouldn't, I would rather, I mean he'll be. I don't think you're making a mistake if you take Aaron Rodgers in the third round. I don't think you're going to Destroy your team. But I would prefer to stack my running backs and wide receivers and I think there's great value in quarterbacks late.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. All right then. The interesting thing about Rodgers is he does not pile on the yardage generally.

[Andy Holloway]

Not usually.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. You know, you look at him and you contrast him with a guy like Drew Brees. Drew Brees normally lands 800, you know, 7, 800 yards ahead of him on the year. But Rogers can stack those touchdowns so fast. And they're a team that looks in the red zone to throw the ball. They're not afraid of putting it in Rogers hands because he's not going to throw the ball away.

[Andy Holloway]

62 attempts in the 10 zone. So I mean it was when they got inside the 10, they just, they threw the ball and he threw a touchdown on 46.7% of those attempts. Wow, that's ridiculous. That's. And that's the second highest percentage for touchdowns inside the 10 for guys who had more than 20 attempts despite having by far the most attempts in the 10. So I mean he's high volume, high percentage. He's just, he's the man.

[Mike Wright]

Andrew Luck comes in at number two somehow entering his sixth season already when he's been healthy, he's a top 10 quarterback. In fact, since 2013 when he's been healthy, he'S a top six quarterback every year where he's played 15 or 16 games. He got paid the year after his injury season. Injury riddled season where he only had seven games played, got paid, came in last year, had a terrible offensive line situation. That was the story for Andrew Lucky. I think that causes a lot of fantasy owners to say look, he may be the best combination of opportunity to still improve along with draft spot where he's going at the back of the fourth round going behind a high profile guy like Tom Brady. What is the story with Andrew Luck? Where do you see him finishing this year? We have him at number two as our consensus quarterback. Rankings?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think two to four is a really safe range for Andrew Luck. And you know that number one is within the realm of possibilities. He has done. It was interesting when I was looking back on Andrew Luck in 2014. So the monster outlier season for Andrew.

[Mike Wright]

Luck where he was number one.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct. Indianapolis tied for fourth, only allowing 1.6 sacks a game. So they actually protected him in 2014 and meanwhile in 2016, 2.8 sacks per game, which then he still got it done. I mean he was the QB4 on the year. He was actually on a very similar pace of 2014 of obviously the touchdowns were down, but I mean, he had a better completion rate, his yards per attempt, all these things were very similar. And if they could just give him a little bit more time, then you know that the touchdowns are going to happen.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. When, when Andy and I were watching you, you know, Andrew Luck play last year, we constantly were saying, dude, if you could just give him, you know, a pocket, if you can give him the time that he needs, he would be the number one quarterback. And honestly, I think Ryan Grigson, their former general manager, was one of the worst general managers in the league. I don't give him credit with much of anything other than drafting.

[Mike Wright]

What about that Trent Richardson trade though?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that was great. And so with him out of the way, I think there is upside for Andrew Luck to go higher. You know, you keep in mind you said he finished as the fourth best quarterback last year. Well, he only played 15 games.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I mean the four guys who finished right after him who did not score as many total fantasy points, which was Kirk Cousins, Ryan Dak, Prescott, Stafford and Philip Rivers, they all played an extra game and couldn't score as many points. So if you, you know, add to the offensive line, add to the protection, make some good moves, which I think as a team they have in the off season and then he plays 16, he certainly should be a top three quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, last year you didn't have Dante Moncrief really in the fold much, much at all.

[Andy Holloway]

But when you did, you had touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, he's a weapon in the red zone for Andrew Luck. It was such a contrast to watch Andrew Luck play last year and then have to watch and then watch Derek Carr and what you got to see them sit back there and pick apart the defense. One thing to keep in mind too, I mean the colts gave up 24 and a half points a game as bottom third of the league. So I mean, you're in a situation where Luck had to basically put the team on his back a lot of the time to have these comeback victories, something he's proven he can do and the draft price. Are you starting to think about Andrew Luck if you slip if he snuck into the fifth round, top of the fifth round. I mean to grab a guy that has finished number one can finish in the top three.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, yeah, I would say in the fifth round, that's where I've got, you know, I've got basically two running backs, two wide receivers or some amount. And I think that what I am sacrificing in the fifth, which I still love, a lot of wide receivers and running backs in the fifth. I think there, I would consider it.

[Mike Wright]

He's certainly a guy you plug in and you can leave him there and he's matchup proof. Tom Brady, maybe you've heard of him.

[Jason Moore]

40 years old, my number two.

[Mike Wright]

Only 13 years older than Andrew Luck. Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

And the crazy thing, he was getting into PG13 movies.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Before Andrew Luck was born. Saw the sun.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my gosh. That's a crazy thought because that means Andrew Luck, you grow up and you're watching Tom Brady and then you're playing alongside Tom Brady, like incredible. But Brady last year he had the four game suspension, so he missed four games, still finished the 11th best quarterback. The crazy thing about him, you know, I just talked about Andrew Luck and the colts gave up 24 and a half points a game. The Patriots were the number one team in terms of the amount of points they've given up. They only give up 15 points a game. Yet Brady was still fantasy relevant without Gronkowski. Now you add Brandon Cooks to the equation. He's going in the third round. I know why. Because of the, you know, super bowl season. You now you get Gronkowski and Brandon Cooks in the fold. He's probably going to be great. I mean, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All signs, all signs certainly point to another year of greatness for Tom Brady. 40 attempts inside the 10 in just 12 games, I mean that's ridiculous. And then compound that with leger. Blunt had 14 rushing touchdowns when Tom Brady was the quarterback and they still threw it that many times inside the 10. The thing, and I don't know that it's a concern for Tom Brady, but what people may not realize is this, this was one of the best years of Tom Brady's entire career. It was the second highest completion percentage, it was the highest touchdown percent per attempt since 2010. His highest yards per attempt since 2011. The lowest interception percentage of his career. I mean he was, he was incredible. And this, it's Tom Brady. So at this point it's, you can't doubt that he can do it again. But he was insanely, insanely efficient for his 12 games.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And well, I mean if you look at, you know, he has been a fantasy producer for the last, you know, half a decade and so of course he's going to do it again. You know, in 2013 he lost Gronk for the majority of that season. And so that season he wasn't that great. Outside of that, his finishes since 2010, he was first, third, third, second. And then he was 11th last year. Right. Except he missed four. He missed a quarter of the season. His pace was 21 and a half fantasy points, which would have put him second. And so coming off of 2015, he was, you know, he set the world on fire. He was, you know, he would have been considered like that number one pick except he was suspended. So he was a low pick. All he did was keep up the exact same pace. That's why he's my number two quarterback in the sense that you add Brandon Cooks and you've always seen with him, when he gets legitimate weapons, he uses them. Well, I'm not talking about Brandon Lloyd's, I'm talking about, you know, when he, when he gets somebody that is very good, he's been able to use them because he's Tom Brady. However, as my number two quarterback, there's zero chance I would draft him if he starts slipping. I'm not drafting him. I expect him to finish high my rankings. That's what it says. But you do have to keep in mind he's 39 years old and that's not for me to say he has lost anything or he can't do it. But if he takes an injury, you know, you saw it with Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning the year before he was done, which was caused, I think because of an injury he just could not recover from. His body could not recover quick enough. You're spending extremely high draft capital on a guy that I think has that extra worry with him for my sake. Because you want to plug and play 16 game starter for sure. And his draft price is just too high for me.

[Mike Wright]

It brings up, I was going to ask this question and maybe you answered it in some part, but how ignored will Tom Brady be in dynasty startup drafts and should he be somebody that you're, you know, is there three more years of this from Tom Brady? I mean, it seems like there's a decent chance to be three more strong years from Tom Brady.

[Andy Holloway]

Brady says there's 15 more coming.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

But I mean, is he going to be ignored so much that he becomes a championship winning piece for three years for some. Or at least the potential to be for a, for a dynasty?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, if you can grab a Tom Brady in double digit rounds, nobody's.

[Mike Wright]

Going to want to draft a 4 because by the time the season starts he's going to be 40 years old.

[Andy Holloway]

Man, I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

I was looking at. So, you know, our next consensus guy is Drew Brees and it's not like he's a spring chicken. He's going to be, you know, he's 38 right now. And I was like, okay, so he's going to be, I think, 39 when the season starts.

[Andy Holloway]

He'll be 38 when the season starts.

[Jason Moore]

38. And so I was looking at, well, who has good seasons at that age? And there's basically, it was Tom Brady, Farve. Yeah. Well, even Favre. So, like Favre and Kurt Warner, who were the third and fourth best seasons at that age, they weren't that good. I mean, they were great for that age. Third and fourth best ever. However that would have put them, like, you know, 18, 17 fantasy points a game, which is not a guy I'm investing heavily in.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we're going to talk about a guy who's had 13 straight seasons. 13, 13 straight seasons in the top 10. But before we do that, I've got to take just a second.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Look.

[Mike Wright]

And thank Halo Top ice cream for sponsoring the show today. It's difficult for me to explain how much I love Halo Top ice cream.

[Jason Moore]

Foot clan. Listen to this. Foot Clan. If you know us, you must listen.

[Mike Wright]

And my passion for Halo Top began before they ever sponsored the show or reached out to us. In fact, my wife had bought a few pints of Halo Top ice cream. One of my favorite things in the world to do is to watch a show. My wife and I will watch a movie or a show and chow down on some ice cream. The problem is this is the year of health, right?

[Jason Moore]

Ice cream is not healthy. A little tiny pint is like 13 calories.

[Mike Wright]

I kid you not. I've had over 30 pints of Halo Top this year. I've lost £15 since January 6th of this year. Yet I am still able to eat ice cream because Halo Top is delicious ice cream. That is literally like a fourth of the calories of those other guys pint.

[Jason Moore]

You can eat an entire pint. And on Halo Top, right on the front says the total calories for the whole pint. It's like 280 calories for an entire. Like, I don't. I know you do. I don't eat the whole pint.

[Mike Wright]

I eat the whole pint. And I sometimes think about eating pint.

[Jason Moore]

But here's the thing. It's actually good. I remember when you told me about it months ago and you're like, the skepticism's through the roof because I've had plenty of those. Like, you know, oh, this is low calorie ice cream. It's not I told my wife about it. I was like this is so good. She went to the store and she got one and she goes hey, I got a Halo top. And I came home and I opened the freezer and it was not a Halo top. She bought some other brand. Yeah, some of the other health And I was like well we got it, we got to try it. Garbage. I'm not going to even say the name because it's worth putting in the toilet. I mean when you have low calorie ice cream it's not ice cream but Halo top is.

[Mike Wright]

Look, they have 17 flavors which is more flavors than seasons that Drew Brees has been in the top 10 which is impressive. So check them out@halo top.com youm can find a pint near you. I order them in every way possible.

[Andy Holloway]

Find a pint near Andy.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's tough to do actually. Yeah. So you can find them all over the place. Check them out on social media. Halo topcreamery they're absolutely awesome. We, they've sent us some, they've sent us all 17 flavors so I've tried them all real quick. We're going too long on ice cream here but favorite flavor. Mine is peanut butter cup.

[Jason Moore]

Also peanut butter cup but I'll give cookie cream and sea salt caramel.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, cookie dough is great. You're a sea salt caramel. Alright.

[Jason Moore]

Drew Brees.

[Mike Wright]

Drew Brees number three last year. All he does, all he does is play 15 or 16 games and finish in the top 10.

[Jason Moore]

I think he's the most underrated quarterback of all time and the only reason why is because he played with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

[Mike Wright]

You're just saying in general he's the most iterated quarterback in the league.

[Jason Moore]

He's not fantasy. I just think he is unfathomably good and he doesn't get put in the. When You Talk Top 5 Quarterbacks All Time his name doesn't come up because he's the third best of his time.

[Mike Wright]

If you told me top the most accurate quarterbacks of all time Drew Brees would always be at the top of that list. But you're right, he gets overshadowed. He's just an incredible passer and he does it. He's done what Tom Brady has done which is play with different players for a long period of time and have sustained success. That just validates that quarterback as one of the best ever. Now you have new weapons. I mean you had Brandon cooks last year. If this was somebody else we'd be going oh no, oh no. You've Lost a huge weapon with Drew Brees. I go, I don't care. I really don't care. I mean, he's got Michael Thomas. He has a tight end that can be athletic enough.

[Andy Holloway]

Sneed is very capable and has the.

[Mike Wright]

Ball to the running back a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. More than anyone else in the. In the last couple years. They're always number one. And we don't know who that. That player X, that third weapon will be at least. I can't say I know for certain who it is right now, but I know that someone will become a fantasy asset in this. In this passing game.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Because Drew Brees hits you in the hands. I mean, it doesn't matter who you are. You run around. You've seen players like Robert Meacham. Now Ted Ginn is a part of this offense. You tell me Ted Ginn's not going to.

[Andy Holloway]

I take it back. It's probably Ted Ginn.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, really, they looked at the situation, the head coach looked at the situation and said, for, you know, 10 cents on the dollar, we bring in Ted Ginn and we'll probably get 90% of the production that we got in big plays from Brandon Cook.

[Andy Holloway]

They actually made them race. They brought Ted Gannon and they said, okay, Cooks, if you can beat Ginn in a race, then we will keep you. And then he lost.

[Mike Wright]

That's complete horrible fabrication. Horrible fabrication.

[Jason Moore]

Do you think Ginn would beat Cooks in a race?

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

No. Okay. I was very surprised there. I do think it matters, though, to lose Brandon Cooks. It's one of those things where, like, when you look back season after season and the quarterbacks that kind of took a step down. When you talk about efficiency, especially touchdown efficiency per target, it's usually guys that lost weapons from the previous year. You saw Andy Dalton have a big regression this past season. Matthew Stafford, you know, obviously lost Calvin Johnson. But, you know, I'm not saying Drew Brees is not going to be great. He will be nothing. Nothing on film has made me think for one second that he's lost arm strength or that he can't, you know, push the offense. He looks great. But losing Brandon Cooks improving the defense, keep in mind, they gave up 28.

[Mike Wright]

Points a game last year.

[Jason Moore]

The last year they have been an albatross and they are now focused. I mean, that's why they got rid of Brandon Cooks, was, you know, to get that first round pick to use on a. On a defensive need. And so I think that the team might be improved. I think Drew Brees is going to be Great. But I expect, you know, I think he'll be a top five quarterback in fantasy football next year. But I would be surprised if he replicates what he did this year. And whenever, you know, as far as just straight fantasy numbers and if you have a guy go down in production year over year, they're usually overdrafted. I mean, it's just the nature of. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

And they'll say in the end, the splits that we alluded to earlier, they're real. Since 2012, Drew Brees is just. He's seven points better at home. And so that's. If you've owned Drew Brees, you know this because.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's your reality for a while.

[Jason Moore]

Much more difficult to be a plug and play weekly starter. So if you've got to spend that fifth round pick. Now, all of a sudden you're contemplating, should you stream somebody when Drew Brees is on the road?

[Mike Wright]

Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan comes in at number five on our consensus quarterback rankings. Last year, the number two quarterback had a monster season. Is it a complete outlier though? Are people going to just go bananas over Matt Ryan and the production will be impossible for him to repeat? I mean, like, this should be brought up too. Cam Newton, two years ago, look, you had this super bowl, you know, this happens a lot. The super bowl team, they have that perfect season and then you have a regression for the entire team. I mean, you just can't. Nobody can produce the same way year over year. Yeah, I mean, happened to Cam Newton. Does it happen to Atlanta?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I looked into. I mean, we have obviously been doing research on fantasy for years. But this offseason I really looked into quarterback for quarterback consistency year over year. And you do have your Aaron Rodgers, your Tom Brady and your Drew Brees. The. Go figure. The hall of Fame quarterbacks, you know, generationally unbelievable players that are, you know, very consistent year over year. But then the rest, they bounce around more than you think. I mean, you have. Think about Big Ben, right? Big Ben has that one alpha wide receiver, right. So does Matt Ryan. He's got a great running game. So does Matt Ryan. Good weapons, good offense, throws a lot of yards. So does Matt Ryan. And you've got Big Ben, who, you know, in 2007, he was the fourth best quarterback that year, had a great year. The next year, 18th best quarterback the next year he was the ninth best quarterback the next year, the 17th. I mean, you bounce around same. You brought up Cam Newton In 2013, he was the quarterback 5, then in 7, then the next year he was quarterback 17. Then he goes to 1, then last year to 19. And so for Matt Ryan, I think he bounces around a little bit. When you factor in the fact that he just had his career year nine years into his career, that to me seems like an outlier. And when you look at the numbers, he threw 60% fewer attempts per touchdown. I mean, that's insane efficiency. That's not repeatable and you lose your offensive coordinator. So for me, Matt Ryan's taking a big shutdown.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, he is going behind the top four guys that we just talked about and we do have him at number five. So we like Matt Ryan as a top five quarterback. That being said, probably not taking him in the fifth round. I mean, no, it's not the same as Andrew Luck landing in the fifth round where you have, you can really project the equivalent type of season or better for Andrew Luck with better weapons, a better offensive line because you can't really be worse and it can be the same, I guess. But to me, the upside of picking a Luck in the fifth round is so different than the downside of picking a Matt Ryan in the fifth round. So I don't think he's going to be on any of my teams, but I do think he's going to have a good year. I mean, I think this team has an offense that works. I mean, this offense, the stability of the head coach three seasons in now, I mean, there are things to like about Matt Ryan.

[Jason Moore]

The continuity of the weapons as well is great.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely. It's huge.

[Andy Holloway]

It's. It's not completely fair to comp Matt Ryan to Big Ben. I mean, Matt Ryan's played every game since 2010.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Where big Ben takes some breaks every once in a while, physical breaks. He, it was, it was the highest completion percentage of his career. Highest yards, touchdowns, lowest interception percentage, highest yards per attempt he had. He was over nine yards an attempt. He'd never been over eight. I mean, like you guys are talking about this. The outlier is in almost every statistical measurable category for Matt Ryan, but there's. He's actually surrounded by an excellent, excellent offense. We've seen him have productive fantasy years before. 8th in 2014, 5th in 2012. The thing for Matt Ryan where he became kind of this a the butt of a joke for fantasy is he could never get over the hump. It was always just, well, he's, he's good. You can put. He's basically a weekly starter, but he's never going to give you that huge top three output. And we finally saw Jupiter in Mars align and it was the age of Aquarius for Matt Ryan. I don't think we see that again, but I still think that he's five. Five is fine because the five to eight is to me is a. Is should be a guarantee for Matt Ryan with the possibility that he, that he has another great season.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, see, I think the floor is lower than you think. If Matt Ryan finished as the quarterback 12 or 13, I would, I would not be surprised. You know, he's gone. You brought up the fifth in 2012 and the eighth in 2014. In between that was 14th and after that was 19th. So I mean he has been one of those up and down guys. But he's good. He's fine. He's just not going to.

[Andy Holloway]

He's fine.

[Mike Wright]

All right, let's talk about a guy who did have a drop off last year. Now there were reasons behind it, but still I think you can spin it both directions however you want to. Russell Wilson never had a season since 2012 where he did not finish this top 10 fantasy quarterback. Last year he finished as the 15th fantasy quarterback and he had gone from nine to six to three.

[Andy Holloway]

These are all. We should have said it at the top, but these are all when we were talking about the rankings. That's six point quarterback leagues.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. So he had gone from nine in 2013 to six in 2014 to three in 2015. And he was being drafted very, very high last year because of how he finished 2015 and the potential for him to just get. I mean he has such a great baseline when he had the rushing numbers. Now last year, look, he, he hurt himself. I mean he was limited, no mobility in the. Which. Which affects him both ways. One, you don't get the rushing numbers and two, he is a pocket escaping fantasy producer.

[Andy Holloway]

Spin move man.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he needs to be able to get out of the pocket. Find Doug Baldwin, find Jimmy Graham, make stuff happen with his, with his legs. It didn't happen last year. For the majority of the season there was no pocket last year that is another problem.

[Andy Holloway]

It was go and Russell Wilson, now.

[Mike Wright]

He'S going in the seventh round running for his life.

[Andy Holloway]

Seventh round is delightful.

[Jason Moore]

Love it.

[Andy Holloway]

For Russell Wilson through the first 10 games when he was playing on the bum ankles, he was averaging. This is Russell Wilson, the guy who ran for.

[Mike Wright]

No, this is Russell Wilson had it.

[Andy Holloway]

Had a season of, of over 800 rushing yards. If I'm recalling correctly, his first 10 games, averaging four attempts for 8 yards.

[Jason Moore]

8 yards a game a game.

[Mike Wright]

That's big Bin numbers.

[Jason Moore]

That's. That's called both ankles taped up where you look like you've got giant moon boots on. That's what. That's what I mean. When you watched.

[Mike Wright]

He was moon booting it.

[Andy Holloway]

And these are not the moon boots where you.

[Jason Moore]

How about the second half of the year, Mike?

[Andy Holloway]

So the last. Well, that was the first 10 games before. I mean, sure, it looked like he was not going to be healthy, but the final six games, it bumped up six attempts for 30 yards, which you'd hope for a little bit more, but 30 yards a game, that's a nice boost. Yeah, it certainly is. And this was. But the passing numbers were up. This was the first time he'd ever thrown more than 500 attempts. But the touchdowns plummeted. Yeah, 34 to 21.

[Jason Moore]

That's why I love him.

[Andy Holloway]

His. You got to think it's. I don't know that he's a 34 touchdown guy, but you put him in that upper 20s and with. With the running ability, he's not really a rushing touchdown guy like some of. Some of these other quarterbacks, but he's a rushing yardage guy.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And so him in the seventh round of.

[Jason Moore]

Russell Wilson is my favorite quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

We've been. I might consider that.

[Jason Moore]

For me, Russell Wilson is my number four quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

I might consider that maybe.

[Jason Moore]

So that's probably for you.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't lock me in.

[Jason Moore]

But yeah, I mean, Russell Wilson, he is. I just said it. He's my number four quarterback. I really believe in him. If you look at 2015, the way that when Marshawn lynch went down and it became Russell Wilson's team, he took over and was awesome because he's a very good quarterback and he knows his system, he knows his weapons. He's got great, you know, otherworldly camaraderie with Doug Baldwin. If you just look by the numbers when he targets him. You added Jimmy Graham. Things were looking up for Russell Wilson, but as you said in 2016, he got crazy injured the whole first half of the year where he couldn't even move. He wasn't himself. As soon as he got healthy, you saw him be that great quarterback again. So to me, right now, I have every reason to believe that he will come in, you know, as the leader of the team offensively and be a great quarterback. If you look at his efficiency and what those injuries did to him last year, it's insane. He has spent the previous four years before last year averaging 16.8 passing attempts per touchdown, which is a great number, you know, league average is like 20. He's at 16.8. Last year he was at 26. That is a crazy outlier number. I mean, when you talk about a difference of 10 passing attempts per touchdown for any guy year over year, usually what you're going to see the next year is an absolute bounce back. I mean, or the opposite. I mean, if you look back year over year, it's very. It's one of those stats that is very telling.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we need to talk about number seven on our consensus ranks, Derek Carr. I am, I'm gonna tell you this right now. I am worried about Derek Carr. Really, I am.

[Jason Moore]

I thought you were gonna go the other way.

[Andy Holloway]

No, you drive the Derek Carr fan.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think I drive it. I don't think I drive it.

[Jason Moore]

You've got him seven in your personal ranking.

[Mike Wright]

That's not true. I have him at 11.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

In six point, you're right. I do have him at seven and six point.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, okay. All right. I was gonna say you've got him seven, eight. Mike's got him 10.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, and I'm worried about him. I'm worried about Derek Carr because there are things. Look, Derek Carr has never thrown for 4,000 yards. And yes, say whatever you want. He didn't play in the last game of the year. Never throw him for 4,000 yards. Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Your baby with your broken leg.

[Mike Wright]

No, get out there. It's one game. And the year before he didn't he. He had six interceptions. I think that's an outlier number for Derek Carr and the way he plays football. That offensive line was incredible in protecting, but I don't think six touchdowns is on the table for him again. Or six interceptions is on the table for him again. So while I like that they added Jared Cook, you give him a pass catcher, you know, and you have some weapons in Richard and Washington that can catch the ball to the backfield. I just have some concerns that, look, you know, 28 touchdowns under 4,000 yards, it was efficiency for Derek Carr that put him in the top 10 and just barely at number nine. I have concerns you also have, you know, he's young, he's got weapons. I just have some concerns that you could have. You know, there are certain guys that you slot in as guaranteed top 10 guys. For me, it's not that way with Derek Carr. And so in a four point league, I got him outside my top 10. I have him at number seven where we have him as a consensus ranking. I just don't think he's a locked and loaded guaranteed top 10 guy.

[Jason Moore]

Is that because you assume Marshawn lynch is going to have 25 touchdowns on the ground?

[Mike Wright]

It has nothing to do with Marshawn lynch whatsoever. Generally it's better when guys come in and put you in the red zone. But I just have some concerns.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, there are my concerns for Derek Carr. So I've been talking about 10 zone attempts and we love those because there's a high probability of a passing touchdowns. He was fourth in 10 zone attempts. However, he only. He was only a touchdown on 30%.

[Mike Wright]

Targeting Seth Roberts and Andre Holt. Stop it.

[Jason Moore]

Will you target Amari Cooper?

[Andy Holloway]

So for some context, that's 23rd of the qualified passers, which I think there was 26 of them who had 20 attempts. So very low efficiency in converting into touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

It's all right. They got Jared Cook, so that number is going up.

[Andy Holloway]

Division games against Denver and Kansas City, he averaged 177 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. Mean. And unfortunately for Derek Carr, he has to play those guys a combined four games and I don't think that their defenses are going to be any worse. He was, however, a QB one eight times. So that's a fantastic number. A guy that you basically drafted super late and then plugged him in and just let it ride. You threw the dice and let it go. But we have Amari Cooper coming into. I want to have some, some confidence in Carr. Amari Cooper coming into his third year. We believe that a breakout could be coming for Amari Cooper. Michael Crabtree is still an efficient passing weapon. One, I guess who's the running back? I mean, I guess if you're with the rumors, it's probably still Marshawn lynch, but we don't know at this point. Can you imagine this team if it's not Marshawn and it's. They don't have that, you know, like that big power back and they just say, screw this, we're going to go with Richard and. And Darryl. Watch or not Darryl. Dwayne Washington.

[Mike Wright]

Not Dwayne either.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodness, DeAndre.

[Mike Wright]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll just D wash. Yeah. D wash, huh?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. With Derek Carr, I mean, I agree with some of the things we're saying about the possibility of disappointing for being our consensus, however, his upside, you've got to also talk about the fact that he's only had three years in the league and in those three years he's. He's only done basically more than most all of the rest of NFL history for each year. Like his rookie year was great. His sophomore year I mean, you say he's never thrown for 4,000 yards, right? Because in his sophomore year he only threw for like 3999 or something close to that. It was a few yards away, which was the fourth best sophomore season since the. Since 2000. That's the data.

[Mike Wright]

That's going to continue forever, though. The way that the passing NFL is. I mean, I think it's a little hyperbolic to state. I mean, if Dan Marino played today, I promise you he's going to put.

[Jason Moore]

Up better number than he did and that I will say this, that completely makes sense. I mean, if you look at two of the other top fours that I just said were Jameis Winston, which is current, and Blake Bortles, which is. Which is.

[Mike Wright]

Can I ask you this, though? Because I'm not trying to cut you off or change the train of thinking. I want to ask you this, though. I'm not saying that I think Derek Carr is going to flop compared to last year. What I'm saying is I don't think last year was all that special. And I certainly. Do you want to spend a sixth or seventh round pick.

[Jason Moore]

Is that where he's going? Yes. Wow.

[Mike Wright]

On what you got last year?

[Jason Moore]

No way.

[Mike Wright]

Give him every success that he had last year and then give him an extra game. He's a 4100 yard, 30 touchdown guy.

[Jason Moore]

No way. No. That's not.

[Mike Wright]

Seven interceptions.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, it's not worth a six round because if you compare some of the guys you know that you get and really, you know, our next show, when we deal with the 13 to 24 quarterbacks, that's really where you're going to be making hay in fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

But are you taking them over Jamie Swinson in the 10th round? Mike?

[Andy Holloway]

Certainly.

[Mike Wright]

Or over Kirk Cousins in the 8th round?

[Jason Moore]

I'm just Stafford or Philip.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just not scoffing. You give me 4,000 yards. 30 plus and 30. So 4,030. If you give that to me. That's. Those are great.

[Mike Wright]

I think they call those Brian Hoyers. Those are Hoyer.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, give me Brian Hoyer. Delightful.

[Mike Wright]

Dak Prescott comes in at number eight. We got to start cruising, guys. Dak Prescott finished sixth last year. I believe I. Yeah, that's the question.

[Jason Moore]

Do you believe.

[Mike Wright]

Because. And Jason has done some things. Jason's done some things statistically to convince me a little bit more. I got him at number 10. I mean, okay, 10 and 11. We have them consensus number eight. So obviously there are believers in this group.

[Jason Moore]

I'm highest at seven in six point scoring formats.

[Mike Wright]

And what do you have? Only he have only four, four interceptions last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct. And two, I believe two of them.

[Mike Wright]

I think they call that like a Nick Folesian amount of.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, but Nick Foles, I mean defenders were just dropping his interceptions while Dak was being very conservative and he was, he just, he picked his places extremely well. He was a quarterback one. Okay, scratch, let me start this way. Five guys put up double digit quarterback one weeks. Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees and Dak Prescott was a QB one 10 times. However, he was the only, he was the only one of those five guys without a top three finish. So he was just extremely steady and which, I mean that's, that's still good, that's still excellent for your quarterback position. If he's giving you quarterback one numbers almost every single week. The touchdowns were low 23. Granted it's his rookie year. He played a nice portion of the season without DEZ Bryant. I expect that connection to continue to flourish. But he had the six rushing touchdowns and I took a deep dive into this last night because rushing touchdowns for a quarterback can be fluky. Right? We've seen, we see, we saw Kirk Cousins his rookie season have a large amount of them and then they almost vanished last year. But here's the deal. His first rushing touchdown. His second read, it was quick read if the guy's open. Nope. Run then a quarterback sneak read, option read, option play action boot. His second read was run it in. And it's his second read frequently is run the ball from the six yard line. And it's, it's very efficient in because of their offense, because of their weapons. So I don't think that six rushing touchdowns is a complete unrepeatable number for him. I think he can get at least 4.

[Mike Wright]

So these numbers obviously helps a lot. Yeah, I mean that's a big, A big difference.

[Jason Moore]

When you look at, you know, I was really curious, okay, so what other examples do we have of great fantasy production from a quarterback in their rookie season? And do they then regress because you got film on them? You get that sophomore slump and things like that. And I looked up. So since 2000, the best, you know, the top 10 fantasy finishes since 2000, two of them were last year in Prescott and Carson Wentz was also up there.

[Andy Holloway]

He was a top ten.

[Jason Moore]

He sure was. So yet for rookies, yet to be seen with. Well that's, it's rare.

[Mike Wright]

It just adds to the point where nowadays if you play and you're a rookie you put up a top 10 season.

[Jason Moore]

So, you know, the other guys that have done it. Cam Newton, he came out gangbusters his rookie year. He's the best of all time, or at least since 2000. And his next year, he had another great year. Robert Griffin, he got injured the following year. So, you know, it's complete data. But Andrew Luck, he repeated. Jameis Winston, he improved. Russell Wilson repeated. Andy Dalton improved. Marcus Mariota repeated. These are the next names on the list. And then I took a look and said, okay, well, the top 10, like the, you know, I don't like when people, they look at the averages of, okay, what does a rookie do? What does a sophomore do? And they take the average of like all rookies and all, you know, rookie quarterbacks and sophomore quarterbacks was like, that's dumb. This is fantasy football. We only care about the best. I don't want, you know, Jared Goff and what he does influencing, you know, the data set. Anything really. But. So I took a look at the top 10 finishes as a rookie. The top 10 finishes of second year quarterbacks, third year quarterbacks, fourth year, all the way through eighth year. And the thing that blew me away more than anything was the second year, because the average from the second year through the eighth year, the top 10 finishes, the average is 338 fantasy points per game or per season.

[Andy Holloway]

Whoa.

[Jason Moore]

The second year, the second year, which I expected to be very low because, you know, how many guys are great in year two was 341, which was actually higher than the average. Like rookie year is 300. So then it jumps up and from there on, I mean, you're basically in the 340s, 330s every season from then on out. So given that he had such a good rookie year that, you know, those guys who have done it before seem to repeat in their sophomore year and that in general, the best sophomore seasons are as good as the best third year, fourth year, fifth year seasons. I believe Dak Prescott repeats, and I like him a lot.

[Mike Wright]

Number nine, Kirk Cousins had a monster year last year. The yardage was through the roof. Almost 5,000 yards. Finished number five in 2016, six point per touchdown leagues. Right now, he's going in the back of the eighth round. There's fear that I think is overblown with losing Pierre Garcon and desean Jackson. I think that he can do enough with that offense. With a growing Jameson Crowder, with Terrell Pryor and with Josh Dockson slowly coming into the fold, I think he can do Enough myself. I like Kirk Cousins. I like the potential for him to put up a similar season. I think he had 12 interceptions, 25 touchdowns, and he scored four times with his legs. So give me the cliff notes on Kirk Cousins and then we'll jump into number 10 here.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's the thing for Cousins, it's the losses. Including Sean McVay, the offensive coordinator for the last few years, he is gone. He's been replaced with Matt Kavanaugh, who was the quarterback's coach. So to me, that said, at least a positive thing that you have a guy who's focused on getting the best out of Kirk Cousins, he's coming in to help with the offensive play calling. What was interesting for Cousins, he was 8th in 10 zone attempts. But like Derek Carr, he had a bad touchdown percentage, 21%.

[Mike Wright]

Do you consider those two bad percentages outlier percentages?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, here's the difference for Kirk Cousins last year on 39 attempts, he was a 41% touchdown guy.

[Mike Wright]

So yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So there was a huge drop. And if you watched Washington play, they frequently fell apart in the red zone. And it was just extremely bizarre of like, this team can move the ball with no problem. That's why you're talking about almost 5,000 yards for Kirk Cousins, yet only 25 passing touchdowns. That doesn't jive to me. And so I think that the touchdowns can come, can come back up. He was a quarterback 19 times. He was third in the league in yards. So I just, I'm not bailing on Kirk Cousins. I think that there's, there's still plenty to like about him for fantasy football, even with some, some built in concerns.

[Jason Moore]

I argued last year with you on one of our debates that Kirk Cousins was not going to be a quarterback one last year. And I was clearly very wrong on that. Not only was I wrong because he was, but I was wrong because he impressed me on his film. And every time I watched him, he looked to me to be a legitimate quarterback, a great fantasy asset. And so I am on board with Kirk Cousins. And as I stated these guys out this year, he didn't finish in my top 12 again this season. It's very difficult. That's with me believing in him. But when you lose your top two weapons, I mean, again, we said it a while ago, Andy Dalton lost two of his weapons. He regressed drastically. Matt Stafford lost a weapon.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he pretty much, I mean, I, well, you. We disagree on both of those contentions. He didn't lose his top two weapons. Jordan Reed is.

[Jason Moore]

No, no no, because he lost two of his weapons.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Which, I mean, obviously you said that.

[Mike Wright]

Kirk Cousins lost his top two. Evans and I would argue that Jordan Reed is a higher. Of higher importance.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. He lost his top two wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

2000 yard receivers.

[Jason Moore]

2000 yard receivers.

[Mike Wright]

First time that's ever happened.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

And so like Andy Dalton did not lose his number one target in A.J. green. I mean, he did for a few games, but he lost Mohammed Sanu and he lost Marvin Jones. And you saw basically last year with Andy Dalton, his, you know, the previous five years, Andy Dalton averaged 20 attempts per touchdown. And then last season when he's got, you know, that changeover was 31 attempts per touchdown. So I'm just saying I think it's going to be difficult for Kirk Cousins to repeat what he did last year, especially with a new coordinator. So he's. He's all right. He's fine with me, but I'm not expecting any. I definitely don't think he's going up.

[Mike Wright]

They've got him on that franchise tag. He has to keep playing well. That's the rule, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Jamie Swinson, number 10 on our consensus rankings. He's somebody that. I don't think Mike wants to keep doing what he's doing. He wants him to improve. Here he's 14th and 2015, 12th in 2016. You know, he's an enigma.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And he's scary to play.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And he's got reasons to believe when you add a guy like desean Jackson. And yet there have been times when the weapons have been put into place and guys have not lived up to it. Where do you have Jameis Winston compared to us? Because I think I'm probably the lowest. I got him.

[Jason Moore]

You've got him at 15 in six point. You've got him 14.

[Mike Wright]

I'm comfy with that.

[Jason Moore]

I've got him and Mike has him eight.

[Mike Wright]

So Mike, make the abridged case for Jameis Winston here and his value right now he's going in the back of the ninth round, 10th round range.

[Andy Holloway]

So the abridged the notes for Jameis Winston, I know we've talked about passing yards are obviously going up for all quarterbacks. However, since 2000, Jameis is the only quarterback to throw for over 4,000 yards in his rookie and sophomore year. And he has Mike Evans, one of the best wide receivers in the league. And now you have the desean Jackson effect, which I know we were arguing for Kirk Cousins, who had DJs last year, being still being solid, but DeSean Jackson has an effect. Donovan McNabb was 30 yards a game better with DeSean Jackson. Michael Vick was 40 yards better every single game with DeSean Jackson. Nick Foltz almost a touchdown better per game with DeSean Jackson. So he improves the offense. Evans the. The numbers on him with. With his efficiency, his yards after catch. The man was suffocated last year because that's all that defenses had to worry about in the passing game. Is it.

[Jason Moore]

What.

[Andy Holloway]

Where's. What's Reed 1 through 3, it's Mike Evans. So put everybody on him. And Mike Evans still managed to have a monster season. Now you have an actual legit secondary option on the outside. So I just. I think that Jameis can continue to improve, but was only a quarterback one six times. So that feeds into the. He was a kind of a scary guy to play.

[Mike Wright]

Is he a matchup guy? I don't even.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't even know if he is. I would have to go relook at the data, but I felt like when.

[Jason Moore]

Couldn't predict that as easy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. When you felt like he was going to. You're like, oh, this is a great matchup coin flip.

[Mike Wright]

Then he has a.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a much better option.

[Jason Moore]

But yeah, I think D Jacks is going to make a huge difference for that because a little bit more consistency.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he does throw a great long ball. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I mean that. It's just the perfect pairing because for.

[Mike Wright]

A long, long ball.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he likes throwing the ball far, like through the air, which is great.

[Mike Wright]

For D. Jacks and far through the air.

[Jason Moore]

And he's had a hard time throwing the ball to the right, which is where D Jacks lines up and where previously no one has lined up. Sorry.

[Mike Wright]

Russell Shepard, number 11, Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers comes in at number 11.

[Andy Holloway]

I have him because of course he does.

[Mike Wright]

I have him at 12, which is where he's finished in 2014 and 2015. Last year, actually finished number eight. You know, he's had some issues with the old interceptions. He loves him lately, and it's from him trying to do too much on that team. You've had a lot of injuries. Keenan Allen's been out almost indefinitely. That being said, he's a guy who's finished in the top 10, I think, nine times since 2006. To me, he's a guy that has the potential to go undrafted or be drafted in the very, very late rounds. That could be a great play for your team. Somebody that you could put in there every week if you've prioritized every other Position. I like Rivers for that and I'd love to see what he does in Los Angeles.

[Jason Moore]

His weapons, right, should be better. I mean his weapons should be improved in the sense that he's got Hunter Henry for a second year. He should have Keenan Allen back. And now because they lost guys to injury like Keenan Allen last year, he actually found rapport with Tyrell Williams, could be a star in the making. You've got Dontrell Inman and Benjamin there. So he now has weapons. When I finished my stating, I looked and I think Philip Rivers was like 16th on my list and I just can't get that to jive with history because when you look at quarterback consistency ratings year after year after year, I mean other than in 2012 when Philip Rivers had a really bad year, was the 21st quarterback it's been since 2007 that he's not a quarterback. One a top 12 in six point passing and he's got great weapons this year. So I, you know, I think he belongs to be a quarterback 11 quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

12 somewhere right there he is generally the annoying quarterback that my opponent has that has a better game than the guy drafted higher or the guy that is got the better pedigree or who I think is going to be a fantasy impact player. The interceptions were a problem, you know. Does he have top five potential? I don't think so, no, no, probably.

[Andy Holloway]

Not top five, but for last year he had the interceptions. His, his passing accuracy was actually down six points.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Compared to 2015 and 2014. I mean that's a huge drop.

[Mike Wright]

He's had deep ball issues too.

[Andy Holloway]

He's just, he is a guy who if you want 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, Philip Rivers, he's going to give it to you.

[Jason Moore]

Also if you want a guy X, he's going to give it. I would say just the last thing is if you want a guy who's going to make the whiniest faces after every pass and blame everyone else for anything that goes wrong. I know we've argued on this.

[Mike Wright]

We always argue about this because I just.

[Jason Moore]

Man, dude, Philip, come on. It's. Sometimes it's on you.

[Mike Wright]

He's expressive.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but he's expressive in the sense of the.

[Mike Wright]

When is Aaron Rodgers ever said it was.

[Jason Moore]

I've seen Aaron Rodgers doing my bad.

[Mike Wright]

No, that one I haven't. I haven't seen.

[Andy Holloway]

He's got one L. Who spells Philip with one L. Come on.

[Mike Wright]

Matthew Stafford, number 12, the last guy we're talking about on today's episode, love Matthew Stafford showed he could get it done. Last year without Calvin Johnson. Seven was where he finished in six point per touchdown leagues going in the late ninth round. I'll take some Matt Stafford on my fantasy roster. I'm just, I'm fine with it. I'm comfy.

[Jason Moore]

Matthew Stafford was on fire. I mean, we forget that he was a top five quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

I don't forget. Speak for yourself.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not speaking for myself. I'm speaking for the we of the community, the vopa. I totally forget that Matt Stafford was like a top five quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And then he, you know, he broke his finger. And we saw this a couple years ago with Carson Palmer. You know, he's like, I'm fine. It's not affecting anything. It's like, well, but have you seen how you throw the ball since you broke your finger? Because it's not the same.

[Mike Wright]

He didn't technically get diagnosed with a broken finger, did he?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know if I think it was just located.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. When you dislocated. Okay, maybe a bone is not broken, but the finger itself.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, he is. He had a hand injury. He had a hand injury. He. His first six games he had 14 touchdowns. That's ridiculous.

[Jason Moore]

Marvin Jones had 11 of them.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Things did even out his, his play returned to the mean after that. And that was before the, the finger injury. He was a quarterback one eight times.

[Mike Wright]

Here. Here's the thing I love about him and I. He has potential to be a top five quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

He's always going to be over 4,200 yards. And the Lions revamped their offensive line. They brought in. Who'd they bring in? Left tackle Rick Wagner. They brought in a guard. Look, those reasons alone give Stafford more. And when he has time, he's always been able to pick defenses apart. He's always been able to find guys like Theo Riddick. You've got Marvin Jones in the outside. You have Golden Tate who can pick defenses apart. That improved offensive line is going to make, I think, pay dividends for him. And I like drafting a guy that has the potential to be top three.

[Jason Moore]

And you bring up he's had a 40. You know, when you've got Abdullah and Theo Riddick that can take those dump offs and make something with it. I mean, you look at Drew Brees and you go, oh, he's always leading the league in yards, you know, or if he's not leading the league, he's second. Well, part of that is because they throw so much to the running back and so many of their kind of Running esque plays. Credit the quarterback with statistics. So yeah, I mean I like a lot about Matt.

[Andy Holloway]

They run through the air.

[Jason Moore]

They run through the air.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. They only had nine touchdowns on the ground last year. Year niner. A niner burger. So I like Matthew Stafford. I think he's one of my favorite guys to grab very late if he has forgotten about. If you get him in the 10th or 11th round, he could very well be an every week starter for you. Every single. Every single week. So lots to like about that. You guys want to do a couple mailbag questions? What?

[Jason Moore]

Let's get crazy.

[Mike Wright]

Let's do it.

[Jason Moore]

Mailbag. Mailbag.

[Mike Wright]

Oh. If you have a question for the show, head over to the website thefantasyfootballers.com click that more tab and then submit a question. We will do our best to answer them on the show. Help you out with your offseason plans. I know a lot of you are thinking about draft strategy and thinking about trades and dynasty. So here's a quarterback question for today's show. This one comes in from Joe in Pensacola, says, hey guys, I'm trying to get a little context on the wait on QB strategy. How far would a top tier quarterback have to fall before you would be comfortable taking him? I was in a mock draft the other day and Tom Brady was available in the fifth round. Would you feel better about grabbing a decent flex in this spot or would you be happy taking him two rounds later than his adp? Thanks and keep up the great work. What do you think guys?

[Andy Holloway]

I was going to say the sixth round is that that's the portion of the draft if a guy like Rogers, depending on who is in this draft room with me, if Aaron Rodgers is in the sixth round, start getting sweaty, you know, thinking like, man, how do you pass? How do you pass?

[Mike Wright]

That's how Mike shows excitement in all situations.

[Andy Holloway]

That's really all my emotions manifest in sweat.

[Mike Wright]

Sweat, sure. That's why we love working with you.

[Andy Holloway]

You're welcome. Fifth, fifth round for Tom Brady. It's, it could be okay, but I mean sixth round is where if it's a what I consider a top tier lock, this guy's going to be a top three. I'll think about pulling the trigger. It's just so hard with the, the guys you can get late being able to actually replace the position so easily off the waiver wire.

[Mike Wright]

I think a lot of it too. I mean it's going to be circumstantial to the degree that, okay, here is a draft where Tom Brady Drops the fifth or sixth round. Is there somebody else that dropped to that round that I really like? Or is this, you know, too much to. Oh, you know, too much to pass up on? So.

[Jason Moore]

Well, a perfect example is like, let's say you're in a PPR league in PPR drafts right now in the fifth round, I mean, you're talking about guys, PPR machines like Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, you know, wide receivers that are going to make a big difference in a PPR league. And so you compare. Well, what are you missing out on when you go from a fifth round pick in Fitz or Golden Tate to a 10th round pick in, you know, maybe you're going Devonte Parker or Corey Coleman, hoping for upside versus, you know, you get the Larry Fitzgerald, and then in the 10th round, you grab a Matthew Stafford. What's the difference going to be between, you know, the seventh quarterback and second.

[Mike Wright]

Quarterback one more guys. Mike in White Plains, New York City.

[Andy Holloway]

New York City.

[Mike Wright]

Love the show. He says it helps that I helps now that I have to wait for my two favorite seasons, Game of Thrones and football. So you're saying the show helps because he's in the middle of waiting for those.

[Andy Holloway]

The struggle is real, man.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Can you do another Game of Thrones show after the show?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you know it.

[Mike Wright]

What do you think? Oh, he wants a season seven preview. He wants, like a single one off season seven preview.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, here's where we are very different in this office when it comes to a show like Game of Thrones where we're all overhyped. We're all. We all love Thrones. We never miss it. However, when those teaser tailor trailers drop, when all the things, the promo videos from HBO come out, Andy immediately is consuming this content. Meanwhile, I plug my ears, I close my eyes and do the la la.

[Mike Wright]

La la la la la.

[Andy Holloway]

Because I don't. I want nothing to do with it. Just surprise me. I'm gonna watch it. There's nothing you can do that will convince me I need to watch it even more. So let's. I don't want to hear about it. Just.

[Mike Wright]

That's fair. I would say one, the more years that go by where you have a loyal audience, the less you need those.

[Andy Holloway]

Right?

[Mike Wright]

So fair.

[Andy Holloway]

So my. Here's my preview. When does Game of Thrones start?

[Mike Wright]

Is that the show after the show? We're gonna do a show.

[Andy Holloway]

We're doing it right now. When does it start?

[Jason Moore]

Here is a calendar.

[Andy Holloway]

Because.

[Jason Moore]

Watch it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I will be watching it on that day.

[Mike Wright]

I guess that means the show is over. But here means we're probably not doing that.

[Jason Moore]

No, but here's what people need. A primer to remind them what was going on. Like what was the last season.

[Andy Holloway]

That's fair.

[Mike Wright]

I need that though. I need something to watch so that I can do it.

[Jason Moore]

I was just gonna say if we commit to doing a show after the show about this. You know what I'm gon to do now, Phil Hudson? I'm have to watch the last season.

[Andy Holloway]

Again, which means that you're going to need to watch the seat you just got to watch every single season.

[Mike Wright]

I thought about it, by the way. Yeah, I did think about it.

[Andy Holloway]

The podcast is done. We have to watch all Game of Thrones.

[Jason Moore]

It's an official maybe.

[Mike Wright]

That's right. It's an official maybe. Depending on what it is, we'll make Mike do it by himself. That's the. That is it for today's episode. We appreciate you joining us. Subscribe. Leave us those reviews on itunes. Look, we are here because of you. We exist to make your fantasy football league more fun, filled with more winning, as Jason would say, so you can withstand more victories and just plain have a better time. We set out to make this podcast great and year round so that you have something that you can work into the routine. Just like that last listener wrote in. So you got something to hold you over until football arrives yet again. Mike, you ready for Thursday show already?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Mike Wright]

No. All right, well, Thursday we'll be back. Any parting words, gentlemen?

[Jason Moore]

Make sure you check out Thursday's show because this that's going to be quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

To quarterback Jared Goffs of the world.

[Andy Holloway]

Check out fantasy jogs for some trophies. The code is footballers goodbye.

[Mike Wright]

We won't talk about golf, I promise.

[Jason Moore]

Not in the top. Thank you for listening to this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join TheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.