Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early WR Rankings Part 1

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast 2017 - Early WR Rankings Part 1

Release Date: April 4, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction and Opening Banter

The episode kicks off with light-hearted banter among the hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright, as they joke about April Fools' Day pranks and tease each other about social media antics. This playful exchange sets an engaging and entertaining tone for the episode.

Jason Moore [00:52]: "Are you telling me that we are already in draft month?"

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Listener Review: Emphasizing Respect and Inclusivity

The hosts share a heartfelt review from listener Isabel Green, praising the Fantasy Footballers for maintaining a respectful and inclusive environment, especially towards women. Isabel contrasts their approach with other sports radio shows that often engage in body shaming and degrading commentary.

Isabel Green [04:14]: "It's pure football. Pure fun and suitable for the whole family. It's an absolute pleasure to listen to every day."

Andy and Jason echo Isabel's sentiments, emphasizing their commitment to making the show family-friendly and free from disrespectful discourse.

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News Segment: Tony Romo's Retirement and DeAndre Hopkins' Situation

The hosts delve into significant NFL news, notably Tony Romo's retirement from playing to pursue a broadcasting career with CBS. They discuss the potential impact of Romo’s departure on DeAndre Hopkins of the Houston Texans.

Jason Moore [09:18]: "Tony Romo has retired or will be retiring from the NFL after 13 seasons pursuing a career in broadcasting with CBS."

Mike Wright highlights Romo's impressive career stats, suggesting his legacy could rival Hall of Famers despite not winning a Super Bowl.

Mike Wright [09:30]: "It's very possible [Romo] could make the Hall of Fame."

The conversation pivots to DeAndre Hopkins' future with the Texans, exploring his dependency on the quarterback situation. They speculate on possible quarterback changes and how that could affect Hopkins' fantasy relevance.

Jason Moore [11:05]: "DeAndre Hopkins is in a situation very similar to Larry Fitzgerald a few years back... If Houston doesn't figure it out now, maybe they sign Jay Cutler and everything changes."

Andy admits an initial inaccuracy regarding Hopkins' performance with backup quarterback Brandon Whedon, promptly correcting it to ensure factual accuracy.

Andy Holloway [16:17]: "What I just said about the Andre Hopkins was 100% inaccurate... Here are the true numbers for DeAndre Hopkins with Brandon Whedon 8 for 94 and 7 for 117 and a touchdown."

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Early Wide Receiver Rankings Overview

Shifting focus to the main topic, the hosts present their early consensus rankings for wide receivers, providing a comprehensive analysis of the top 10 picks based on their research and evaluation of player performances.

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Detailed Wide Receiver Rankings

1. Antonio Brown – Consensus #1

   • Performance Highlights: Over the last four years, Brown has consistently been a top performer, finishing first or third in fantasy rankings multiple times.
   • Consistency and Upside: Despite occasional injuries, Brown remains a reliable top-five wide receiver with minimal risk.
   • Insights: His ability to dominate regardless of offensive fluctuations cements his #1 spot.

   Jason Moore [18:18]: "Number one, Antonio Brown, our consensus number one wide receiver, 29 years old. Unbelievable."

2. Odell Beckham Jr. – Consensus #2

   • Performance Highlights: Beckham has maintained elite performance since his debut, with minimal seasons outside the top five.
   • Dynamic Playstyle: His ability to make big plays and consistent target acquisition make him a safe and high-reward pick.
   • Potential Risks: Questions about quarterback stability but Beckham’s versatility mitigates this concern.

   Jason Moore [22:52]: "Odell Beckham Jr. is a little bit of a headache at times but he gets it done. He is a player where his quarterback... is locked and loaded."

3. Julio Jones – Consensus #3

   • Performance Highlights: Julio Jones boasts record-breaking yardage and consistent top-tier performances.
   • Injury Concerns: Frequent minor injuries make him riskier despite his high upside.
   • Consistency: Despite frustrations from missed games, his overall performance keeps him high in rankings.

   Jason Moore [23:41]: "Julio Jones was right there with him [Antonio Brown]. He is far riskier to me than these other two guys."

4. A.J. Green – Consensus #4

   • Performance Highlights: Green remains a reliable target when healthy, with strong seasonal performances.
   • Injury History: Occasional injuries have slightly dampened his ranking.
   • Team Dynamics: The stability of his quarterback play supports his high ranking.

   Jason Moore [27:33]: "A.J. Green... stability at the quarterback position."

5. Jordy Nelson – Consensus #5

   • Performance Highlights: Nelson has the second-most receiving touchdowns since 2011, showcasing his scoring prowess.
   • Team Support: Aaron Rodgers' expertise has enabled Nelson to thrive, though expectations remain high.
   • Regression Potential: Historical data suggests possible regression after peak performance years, but Nelson's situation remains solid.

   Andy Holloway [32:13]: "Since 2011, Jordy Nelson has the second most receiving touchdowns in the league."

6. Mike Evans – Consensus #6

   • Performance Highlights: Evans has shown consistent high performance, particularly benefiting from strong offensive team dynamics.
   • Offensive Shifts: Changes in the Tampa Bay defense have influenced his production, leading to some inconsistency.
   • Potential for Regression: Historical trends indicate possible downturns after peak seasons, making him a solid but not elite pick.

   Jason Moore [35:04]: "Mike Evans does not have Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball... he still ended up beating Mike Evans out in points per game."

7. Dez Bryant – Consensus #7

   • Performance Highlights: Bryant has demonstrated elite performance when healthy, particularly in the red zone.
   • Team Reconstruction: Dallas Cowboys' defensive struggles could impact his QB play and, consequently, his fantasy value.
   • Injury Concerns: Past injuries have tempered his ranking despite his high upside.

   Jason Moore [40:21]: "Dez Bryant enjoys the end zone. He really does."

8. Michael Thomas – Consensus #8

   • Performance Highlights: Thomas has shown potential as a top-tier receiver, especially with Drew Brees’ precise passing.
   • Rookie Development: Being a rookie, his long-term consistency remains to be fully proven.
   • Team Support: Continued support from a stable quarterback situation enhances his potential.

   Jason Moore [44:00]: "Michael Thomas, huge, not guaranteed. That being said, I believe... he can be in the top five."

9. Ty Hilton – Consensus #9

   • Performance Highlights: Hilton offers reliable weekly targets and consistent production, though he hasn’t reached the elite threshold.
   • Team Role: As a primary target in the offense, he provides steady points without the high volatility of top-tier receivers.
   • Consistency: His consistent week-to-week performance makes him a dependable pick.

   Jason Moore [49:20]: "Look, Ty Hilton, number nine feels fine."

10. Amari Cooper – Consensus #10

    • Performance Highlights: Cooper has demonstrated bursts of high performance, especially early in seasons.
    • Volatility: Mid-season performance can be inconsistent, making him a riskier late-round pick.
    • Potential for Growth: If he secures a more stable offensive role, his rankings could improve.

    Jason Moore [55:07]: "Amari Cooper is the type where when you own him, you just don't know if you're going to get one of those games where he just doesn't show up."

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Humorous Interlude: Jersey Number Debate

In an entertaining detour, the hosts engage in a humorous debate about jersey numbers, specifically focusing on Amari Cooper’s choice of number 89. They joke about Jared Cook's attempt to acquire Cooper's number, adding levity to the episode.

Jason Moore [59:14]: "Jared Cook trying to steal his fire."

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Final Thoughts and Teasers for Future Episodes

Wrapping up, the hosts hint at continuing their comprehensive wide receiver rankings in future episodes, inviting listeners to stay tuned for deeper analyses and additional player evaluations.

Jason Moore [61:04]: "Stay tuned to the Fantasy Footballers and subscribe. Leave us reviews on iTunes."

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Key Takeaways

• Top-Tier Reliability: Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. remain the most reliable and high-upside picks in early WR rankings.
• Emerging Players: Julio Jones and AJ Green offer significant upside but come with injury and consistency risks.
• Consistent Performers: Jordy Nelson and Mike Evans provide dependable performances with moderate risk.
• Rising Stars: Michael Thomas and Ty Hilton show promise as dependable target receivers with growth potential.
• Risk vs. Reward: The hosts emphasize balancing high-reward players with those who offer consistent weekly performance to build a robust fantasy roster.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Listener Praise:

  Isabel Green [04:14]: "It's pure football. Pure fun and suitable for the whole family."

• Tony Romo's Retirement Impact:

  Jason Moore [09:18]: "Tony Romo has retired or will be retiring from the NFL after 13 seasons pursuing a career in broadcasting with CBS."

• Wide Receiver Rankings Highlight:

  Jason Moore [22:18]: "Number one, Antonio Brown, our consensus number one wide receiver, 29 years old. Unbelievable."

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This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast provides a thorough and insightful analysis of early wide receiver rankings, blending expert opinions with engaging discussions and humor. Whether you're a seasoned fantasy player or new to the game, the hosts offer valuable perspectives to help you navigate the fantasy football landscape and build a winning team.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, this is Willie Sneed with the New Orleans Saints, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in. We're back again, and it is April Tuesday, April 4th.

[Mike Wright]

You got it.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait a minute, wait a minute.

[Jason Moore]

2017.

[Andy Holloway]

April is the month of the NFL Draft.

[Mike Wright]

You are correct, sir.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you telling me that we are already in draft month?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

April fools. No, we're not.

[Andy Holloway]

No, that's. That's a couple days.

[Jason Moore]

Do you have a good April Fools, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

I posted my. My annual reminder to America.

[Jason Moore]

You're not a fan.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

I'll let you know this right now. Jason texted me his family was out.

[Andy Holloway]

I was going to the Grand Canyon.

[Jason Moore]

You were on a trip, but you.

[Andy Holloway]

Came to my mind.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And he texted me on April 1st and said, look, you need to Photoshop Mike's Twitter account as verified and try.

[Andy Holloway]

To convince for a moment that it happened.

[Mike Wright]

I see.

[Jason Moore]

But. But I was down with the sickness, so I didn't do it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

That's for the best.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Sorry.

[Mike Wright]

That's for the cause. That's. Look, there are some things you can try and fool me on, but there's.

[Jason Moore]

One thing that's never going to happen.

[Mike Wright]

If you want to go down that road, I cannot be responsible for that.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's be honest. That is just not believable. Am I right?

[Jason Moore]

A good April Fool's track needs to be believed, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

All right, welcome to the show. It's a great one. Andy, Mike and Jason, the fantasy footballers. We're back. We're talking wide receivers today. Our early consensus wide receiver rankings. Last week we did running backs. If you didn't listen to those shows, go back and take them in. Subscribe to the show, go back, listen in on our early running back rankings. This week, we got wide receivers. Very excited to talk about this.

[Andy Holloway]

A lot of research. I mean, I wanted to do wide receivers first because we've been putting in weeks and weeks of research.

[Jason Moore]

A lot of discussion in the office yesterday. A lot of interesting tidbits and stat nuggets and things we've been looking at. Jason came up with some really neat stuff yesterday that I'm excited to talk about. I have kind of a. How do I say, Just kind of a strategy nugget that I think my, you know, my strategy is evolving as a fantasy player. It's not, you know, we always say, what? Be water, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Be water. Stay Pliable. Be. Be willing to change with how the NFL changes and how fantasy leagues change and all of these things. And. And my strategies are changing a little bit and I have something I want to bring out in the context of that on today's show. So I'm excited to talk about that. Got a good quick question what we're going to do right now. We're going to jump into the review of source and read a. An itunes review from a listener. We appreciate your reviews and your subscribes over there on itunes. It helps support this independent podcast. So we're going to do that real quick right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Reviewasaurus Rex. This one comes in from Isabel Green 4. The first three were taken. I came here to write a funny review, but it turns out I have something serious to say. I used to start each morning listening to my local sports radio on the way to work. And each morning amidst the sports talk was the incessant body shaming and degrading of women. Sometimes it was subtle, sometimes it was an entire segment dedicated to just that. I was ashamed to be a listener. I thought local radio was the only way to get my football fix until I found the fantasy footballers. Pure football. Pure fun and suitable for the whole family. It's an absolute pleasure to listen to every day. And I'm so incredibly grateful for the respect shown to women. What a concept.

[Mike Wright]

It really is.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, go figure. If you're a fan of any of the following Jeff Fisher, Swedish fish flavored Oreos or bees, then this show is not for you. Everyone else, jump on board. Excellent. Isabel Green for. Thank you so much for the review.

[Mike Wright]

We really, we really do appreciate that because we. This is fantasy football. Should be for everybody.

[Jason Moore]

For everybody except Jeff Fisher.

[Mike Wright]

Except for bees. I'm fully on board of this full.

[Jason Moore]

Discrimination towards Fisher and Bees. But no, Mike hit the nail on the head. It's always been a goal of ours to make this show for everybody. You know, family comes first for all of us. And we want you to be able to listen to this show with your kids in the car and all of that.

[Mike Wright]

So.

[Jason Moore]

So. All right, all right. Let's go ahead and get into the quick question, guys. Oh, come on.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, what is it?

[Jason Moore]

You've got to be joking me.

[Andy Holloway]

What's wrong?

[Jason Moore]

Of course, the only time I never. I didn't look at this question. I was gonna.

[Mike Wright]

You always read the quick question.

[Andy Holloway]

This is so good.

[Jason Moore]

Always look at it before the show. So Jason is troll.

[Andy Holloway]

Level 10.

[Jason Moore]

Is terrible. Is a terrible person. Yesterday on Twitter. So here's what's going on? Welcome to the show. This is everything you need to know. We're in a dynasty league together, obviously. We're in several leagues together. We're in this dynasty league together. And Jason, all off season has just been just trashing my team, poking the bear, just being horrible about how bad my team is. A lot of it is in the context of I'm going to be really, you know, good in like seven years from now. And I keep trying to convince him I'm decent. So I've made a lot of trades and strengthened my roster. And he goes on Twitter yesterday and posts a poll and he just picks four players from each of our teams. He leaves off the rest of my roster and the rest of his. And the poll was like, just so.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, the poll came in 96% in favor of my team.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. You picked his four best players.

[Mike Wright]

So can we ask the question?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. What is this question?

[Jason Moore]

Which side is better? Aaron Rodgers, Mark Ingram, Antonio Brown and Ty Hilton or.

[Mike Wright]

That's pretty strong.

[Jason Moore]

Or Andrew Luck, Isaiah Crowell, Jarvis Landry and Terrell Pryor.

[Mike Wright]

That's less strong.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah. Thank you for leaving Alan Robinson and Rob Gronkowski off of my.

[Andy Holloway]

No problem.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I'm not saying you wouldn't have won the poll here.

[Andy Holloway]

We do have a backup. Quick question.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. I don't know what it is.

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks was prepared. He knew the troll was happening. I'm so happy that got in here.

[Jason Moore]

It worked so perfectly. I did not see it.

[Andy Holloway]

So since we're talking wide receivers, this question is on a local guy, one of my guys. Last year. What is the earliest this year that you would take John Brown in a fantasy draft coming up for this coming season?

[Jason Moore]

The earliest? Well, I don't have a lot of imminence attached to him. I view him as an upside steal only. And so I'm not setting my mind personally to like, oh, I've got to get John Brown. So that probably puts him. Gosh, what is that? Nine. Tenth round.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. For context, right now, John Brown, and this is early. He's going in the middle of the 11th round. Now for me, that's terrible.

[Jason Moore]

So ninth, 10th round. I'm cool.

[Andy Holloway]

Ninth round for me, like, if he's 11th, I'm going two rounds ahead because I do want him. I have imminence. But imminence is not going to be.

[Jason Moore]

It's not going to thwart your whole team and strategy.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not going to ruin the value that I can get from him. Two rounds ahead is Usually as far ahead as I'll ever take a guy because I just don't think I need to overreach for people. But I see John Brown as pretty much as close you can get to a locked and loaded wide receiver, too, with huge upside that I can get super duper, duper late. So I do like Brown. What about you, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

I completely agree. I was even going to say around 8.

[Jason Moore]

Not a lot of risk.

[Mike Wright]

I'm in. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, because of where you're taking him.

[Mike Wright]

And just look, look who's around him and what actual upside with some of these guys. I mean, you have a player who I like moving into this year, Jordan Matthews. I think a lot of people think, well, his situation has gone down. I personally think it has improved with the people around him. Allow him to do what he does. He's going in the back of the ninth right now. But Jordan Matthews, upside compared to John Brown, Give me Brown every single day. So I just. I'm willing to take him even in the eighth.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I would be as well. I'll basically move up two rounds ahead of wherever he's being drafted. Unless he moves up into like the eighth round. Right.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's jump into the news. Lots of big news today.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

Much to the chagrin of Brooks, a dynasty owner of DeAndre Hopkins.

[Mike Wright]

Do we have the sad music? Is that available?

[Jason Moore]

Let's go with.

[Mike Wright]

There we go.

[Jason Moore]

Tony Romo has retired or will be retiring from the NFL after 13 seasons pursuing a career in broadcasting with CBS instead of continuing his career on the field.

[Mike Wright]

This. This music is not for Romo.

[Jason Moore]

Congratulations.

[Mike Wright]

Congratulations to Tony Romo. An always, always underrated career. When you look at his numbers, he.

[Jason Moore]

Could make the hall of Fame.

[Mike Wright]

It's very possible. I'm not sure because he didn't win a Super Bowl.

[Jason Moore]

I believe fourth or fifth best completion percentage in NFL history.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, he was spectacular. I don't think he was appreciated while playing. But this music is for DeAndre Hopkins. He was getting Tony Romo.

[Andy Holloway]

This music is for DeAndre Hopkins. And also, I hope, one can hope that this music is also for Phil Sims. Wait, if he goes to cbs. Phil, you had a good run. You were a great quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

You really don't like Phil Sims.

[Andy Holloway]

I just can't stand listening to Phil Sims as a broadcaster. Tony Romo take his job.

[Mike Wright]

True. I don't have. I don't know if I've told this story. I went to a game, a cardinal game in St. Louis with my pops and on the way home, we were sitting right behind Phil Sims and do you learn anything? I listened to some things. I listened to him say specifically that John Brown is a bit player and absolutely nothing special about him. This was before John Brown then proceeded to dominate the NFL. This was so. This was a couple years ago.

[Jason Moore]

I did not hear. I remember you sat next to Sims, but I did not know that little tidbit of information.

[Mike Wright]

So that's.

[Jason Moore]

You hear that, John?

[Mike Wright]

That's something I hold on to.

[Jason Moore]

Go get him. Go get him. Look, DeAndre Hopkins. It's not good. It's not good. DeAndre Hopkins is in a situation very similar to Larry Fitzgerald a few years back where, you know, what are the possible outcomes for. This is the thing I want to talk about a lot today is what are the possibility of outcomes for players. That's something I want to consider in my fantasy draft. And when you don't have a frontline starting quarterback, it can be Tom Savage, it can be a rookie, or it could be Brandon Whedon.

[Mike Wright]

Don't leave Brandon.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, seriously, Brandon Whedon might be the right side.

[Mike Wright]

You could beat out Savage.

[Jason Moore]

But those options leave a range of possibilities for DeAndre Hopkins that involve includes being nearly fantasy irrelevance. And that stinks because he's super talented. And it just. It happened to Larry Fitzgerald for a couple years with John Skelton and Max hall and the laundry list of not Kurt Warners that came into Arizona. And if Houston doesn't figure it out now, maybe they sign Jay Cutler and everything changes. Because if Jay Cutler.

[Mike Wright]

That's a great point.

[Jason Moore]

If Jay Cutler went to Houston, that that would change everything.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to need some underpants.

[Andy Holloway]

Or if they were to make a move for Garoppolo, which I don't think happens, but they might need to look because I, I think they were really hoping here for Tony Roman when they made the move to get rid of. Yeah, they probably don't have the pieces, especially getting rid of the draft pick that they did. But they need a better quarterback for DeAndre Hopkins to be relevant. And yes, you can look at 2015 when DeAndre Hopkins had a great season with a bunch of garbage players. But I think that that is. That's just not the norm.

[Jason Moore]

And the majority, a large portion of that was Hoyer during that season who played very well. Who played very well. And I understand he had some good games with Yates and whoever else it was, but it is not the norm. Jason hit the nail on the head.

[Mike Wright]

The good news for The Texans. So I mean they picked 25 in the first round but to me there are, you know, there's no clear cut number one quarterback, of course draft season. From here until the draft, things start escalating. Where did you say they picked? 25th.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So you're not getting Watson or Trubisky.

[Mike Wright]

You know, you're not getting Trubisky, but I think there are, you know, there's Kaiser, four guys. You throw Kaiser in there, you throw Mahomes in there. There's, there is at least some hope that someone will drop to them at 25 if that's the direction that they want.

[Andy Holloway]

I think Hopkins would be worse with a, with one of these incoming rookies than with Brandon Whedon who I, who I think could beat out Savages are saying and just listen to this, this is extremely small sample size and I don't think Brandon Whedon is a great quarterback. But in 2015 there were three games where Brandon Whedon really played the majority of those those snaps and was allowed to throw the ball. Here are those three games for DeAndre Hopkins in 2015. Eight for 101 and a touchdown. Nine for 157 and, and 11 for 169. So tell me, there's a chance.

[Jason Moore]

Are we rooting for Wheaton?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know, man.

[Jason Moore]

No, it's a good point. And I agree with you about the rookie. I mean you saw last year they had to scale the offense back for Brock Osweiler once it was obvious he couldn't do anything. And that's what you might see with a rookie is a scaled back run first, defensive oriented, not going to air it out. And that would be the problem. At least if Whedon or somebody was in there, you'd have, you'd have a chance. But it's not good news. That's the gist of that. And also, you know, any hope for Demary's Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders getting Tony Romo on that side, not going to happen.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Adrian Peterson visited the Patriots on Monday which was very, very curious. He did leave without a contract and.

[Mike Wright]

You had a, you had yourself a good belly chuckle.

[Jason Moore]

Of course you would have to.

[Mike Wright]

I got.

[Jason Moore]

Because Mike loves Rex Burkhead and we're like, what is going on with Adrian Peterson visiting the Patriots? It would kill all you Rex Burkhead love. However, look, it doesn't seem like anybody is sniffing around Adrian Peterson right now. You might not see a conclusion to the Peterson saga until he enters broadcasting or camp starts.

[Mike Wright]

I say this Is he might be a mid camp edition?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he may. Tim Hightower was signed by the 49ers, formerly of the Saints last year. He had some relevance in certain games. Stole some relevance from Mark Ingram at times.

[Mike Wright]

And here's the deal with Hightower. Despite how much I like Carlos Hyde and I think he's an excellent football player, he hasn't played a full season. So Tim Hightower could become a valuable handcuff. As a guy with a high probability of getting some starts, it looks like.

[Jason Moore]

It will be Hyde, Hightower and Harris in San Francisco.

[Mike Wright]

It's devastating.

[Jason Moore]

Triple H. If you want to follow the show, you can do so on twitter@the ffballers. The website is the fantasy footballers.com. a couple new reception perception art articles up this week. We have an article about Carlos Hyde by Kyle Borgnani and a lot of good stuff on the website before we move on. Oh, wait, hold on.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, so breaking. Well, this is not breaking for the listener. Jason struck a very Captain Kirk esque pose with their.

[Andy Holloway]

I just wanted to make sure. Look, we want. One of the pillars of this show is accuracy. We want to be accurate. Our information we care about, we want it to be good. What I just said about the Andre Hopkins was 100% inaccurate. I'm doing this on the fly and I want to call myself out here. Okay? Those three games were with Brian Hoyer. I was looking at the game logs of 2015 for Brandon Whedon. Those three games that Brandon Whedon played. No, no, no, no. It's not all. It's not entirely bad. I just. Look, we, we want to get it right. That's our goal here.

[Jason Moore]

I like how you're standing on a pedestal.

[Mike Wright]

It's still good.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like good. It's still good. But here's the reality. Those three games for Brandon Whedon were with Dallas. Okay, so, so I looked at DeAndre Hopkins games that week, but he did play week 14 and 15. Here are the true numbers for DeAndre Hopkins with Brandon Whedon 8 for 94 and 7 for 117 and a touchdown. All right, so you're telling me there's a chance, but those are the accurate numbers. This is what I do.

[Jason Moore]

I look.

[Andy Holloway]

We withstand victory.

[Jason Moore]

That was a long winded correction there. Very well done. Now we're on par. We're going to talk.

[Andy Holloway]

The rest of the show has been well researched.

[Jason Moore]

I love this.

[Andy Holloway]

Quick question.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Wide receiver time.

[Andy Holloway]

Wide receivers.

[Jason Moore]

All right, a reminder, this is half point per reception, early wide receiver consensus rankings. The three of us have put together some of our early season rankings. When you combine those ranks, this is who ended up in our top 10.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like a pooped in his big boy pants drop should have happened for Jason right there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was flushing the statistics away is what I was doing.

[Andy Holloway]

I like it.

[Jason Moore]

You know, we're not going to talk about DeAndre Hopkins today. He's not in that top 10 as.

[Andy Holloway]

He should not be. And I see him in certain top 10 lists even early this off season. Yeah, I have.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe just banking on Romo.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, no, no, no. This was before the Romo rumors were early, early, early. Like end of last season future rankings. DeAndre Hopkins was so high and we forget he finished in the 30s. This last year. I have him up at 17 and I think people think that might be too low. I think that might be too high.

[Jason Moore]

All right, number one, Antonio Brown, our consensus number one wide receiver, 29 years old. Unbelievable. Last four years finished. Here's his finishes in the last four years. Mind you, he's played 16 or 15 games in all of them. Six. One, one three.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, one, one, three. And in the year that he finished third, he didn't play the last week.

[Jason Moore]

Because he was rest just signed a contract extension. Has already endured Big Ben being hurt at times during those four years and it hasn't affected him the pot. When you talk possibility of outcomes for Antonio Brown, I think the possibility is you're going to get a top five wide receiver and that's it. And injury isn't a highly probable outcome for Antonio Brown. Last year was worth the draft pick where you drafted him. 106 catches, 1284 yards, 12 touchdowns on 154 targets, which, mind you, I believe is about 20 something less than Mike Evans got. But he still ended up beating Mike Evans out in points per game by the end of the season. Not a lot you have to say about Antonio Brown that you don't already know out there. But. But Andy Vopo isn't.

[Andy Holloway]

Martavis Bryant coming back from his suspension and going to steal touchdowns and targets and receptions?

[Jason Moore]

Well, he played with him during those four years we just talked about at times.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

In fact, he played with him during the two years he finished number one back to back in 2014 and 15. So I am not concerned.

[Andy Holloway]

From 2014 through 2016, we have 21 games with Martavis Bryant, 26 games without and he scores almost five more fantasy points per game with Martavis Bryant. And because he takes the, you know, the defenders have to watch that deep ball Also the offense moves better. So Antonio Brown, I mean what, what are you going to do?

[Mike Wright]

So I have a question for Jason. This is and this is a strategy question draft strategy question. Because you are, you are so risk averse with your first round pick when you're in that especially when you're in the very top. This is. We know who you are but you, you have said you want one of the running backs, one of the three big running backs. If you're at the very top. Meanwhile you have Antonio Brown here who in the last four years the worst that you've gotten from Antonio Brown is a top six finish. Meanwhile we know that that running backs you just they're far more likely to get hurt which can create the bust situation. So are you. Even with Antonio Brown's consistency are you still easily bypassing him if you're in a top three pick?

[Andy Holloway]

I think that when it. When I'm looking at this, if I'm in a standard league it would be difficult at pick three because I think there I worry about the risk with Lev Bell. He has shown me enough injury concern. You also have possible suspension concerns. If I'm in any kind of half point or ppr, you know I wouldn't blame anyone there. But the truth is the top tip top running backs just outscore the top wide receivers usually by enough of a margin where I think David Johnson, Love Bell and Zeke are safe enough for me where I'm going to take the points it's always risk verse reward and I don't think the risk is super high with those three guys and I think the reward is super high if you took Antonio Brown of course there's no, no problems there.

[Jason Moore]

Brown played one less game last year than the year before but was just rest amazing that he, he had 30 less receptions last year and 550 less yards than the year before and still ended up where he ended up.

[Mike Wright]

2015 was insane.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So but that, that shows you what he can do. Number two, Odell Beckham Jr. Our consensus number two wide receiver. All he's done in his three years in existence. Six, five, four.

[Mike Wright]

How do he should be three then this year? Yeah, I mean he's counting down obviously.

[Jason Moore]

The kind of our consensus obvious number one pick in any dynasty league. He's 24 years old. He's been absolutely dominant. I don't think it hurts him at all. For those wondering about Brandon Marshall, what more can you say about Odell Beckham Jr. He may be a little bit of a headache at times but he gets it Done. On the field, he's so dynamic. He can take the ball to the house from anywhere on the field. 101 for 13, 67 and 10 on 169 targets. You know, he is a player where his quarterback. I guess you could say that with Big Ben, too, based on this offseason and the weird retirement speculation. But, you know, Eli Manning's 36 years old. There's talk of New York drafting a quarterback in the first two rounds this year. He could go through a quarterback change in the next few years, But Oda Beckham Jr. Is locked and loaded.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And I think for the future. We talked. You mentioned Dynasty is the number one pick for, I believe, all three of us. Jason, are you Beckham? Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Just.

[Mike Wright]

Just confirming. I think he's. He'll be just fine with whoever the. The next quarterback is because of how he's used. It's not. He's not just an outside receiver. They also move him inside the slot and he. He can tear people up from there. And I think these top three guys are not the most interesting to debate. You know, everyone has their particular order of how they like these three. I think that this is almost a. Our top three are a measure of risk here with Antonio Brown being by far the safest. Just because you have such a. I guess it's not that much more than Odell Beckham Jr. But it's at least an entire season. Beckham has three years. The worst he's ever been is his top six. So I'm just going to move us along to Julio Jones, who's number three. We've seen what he can do. One of the. That 2015 Antonio Brown insane year. Julio Jones was right there with him. One of the best receiving years of all time. Highest yardage. But he is far riskier to me than these other two guys. You have his. His foot problems. I mean, he's. He's always hurts. When you're watching Julio Jones play.

[Andy Holloway]

Julio's fantastic.

[Mike Wright]

At least once a game you go, oh, crap.

[Andy Holloway]

And he's really annoying to own as well. Andy, you could probably speak to this better than anybody in the sense of every game you watch. Yeah. Like Shady, you worry, oh, he's out. He's going to miss the game. As many texts last year as we got from Mike about Shady being out, oh, Julio's done. Julio's tweaked. You've had him on our main leagues for, like, the last three years, and I believe you said that you got nothing out of him.

[Jason Moore]

That was two years There's a famous quote, you know, I wouldn't necessarily call. I'm not going to say it's annoying to own Julio Jones. It's spectacular, spectacular. But I. There was an end to the season there where he didn't come through in those clutch late season games. He had a few really big games when it didn't matter to my fantasy team as much. And so I had made the comment that, hey, he didn't even help me when it mattered. He's more annoying to own than Antonio Brown because the toe he has more variables this off season than the other two guys and the fact that his offensive coordinator has left the system. Are we worried about Julio Jones? No, no, not. It's relative, right? I mean, maybe more than the other two, but please put him on my roster. Yes, I will be annoyed with Julio Jones.

[Andy Holloway]

You got the big running backs, the big three wide receivers, and now we get to the interesting guys where the order changes from analyst to analyst and from draft room to draft room.

[Jason Moore]

I couldn't be happier with our number four, though, by the way.

[Andy Holloway]

I agree.

[Jason Moore]

Before I spout the name, I do want to remind people about the Ultimate Draft Kit, which has a very, very special wide receiver focus this year as well. Last year Ultimate Draft Kit, you get all of our player projections and all of the sleepers and breakouts and profile videos. You've heard us talking about it. But this year we brought Matt Harmon from NFL.com he does reception perception, one of the leading minds over there and he has agreed to put 50. He's charting 50 wide receivers for our Ultimate Draft Kit. And if you know what, when I say charting, maybe you don't understand what the reception perception is he actually goes through and he individually charts out how players succeed against different coverage and against route types and gives you the perspective to identify breakouts players that are very complete wide receivers versus incomplete wide receivers. It kind of helps give you an independent viewpoint of the wide receiver position to help you predict draft the right guys. And so very interesting stuff to look at too. So just to remind everybody, you can go pre order that@ ultimatedraftkit.com we're very, very excited about it this year. We know you'll Love it. Number four on our list. I love it. It's A.J. green. No, it's not Mike Evans. I feel like I'm gonna have to.

[Andy Holloway]

Say that a couple of more times.

[Jason Moore]

A couple more times. 29 years old AJ Green. I don't know what it is about AJ Green. Maybe it's the fact he's had a couple injuries. He just doesn't seem to get the respect that he deserves. Stability at the quarterback position. You know, his, his three seasons in the last five where he played 16 games, he finished four, four and seven. Okay. I just don't know what there is to dislike about AJ Green other than the fact he's coming off an injury. Why isn't he a top five guy again?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, Mike's got him number seven. Tell us, tell us your rat for that.

[Jason Moore]

That's good.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, he' number seven. Just because I like a couple guys more than him. I have no problem with AJ Green. If you want him to be your number four guy, I'm not going to argue against it. And I think it's just, it's the perception of him where, yeah, he's had some top years, but now he has three years where that are not elite.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, I'm throwing his rookie.

[Jason Moore]

You're not talking consecutive, right? Right.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I'm saying his rookie year, which maybe you can go ahead and throw it as rookie year out, but two of the last three years, if you had AJ Green, you ended up disappointed. Not with what he was giving you when he was on the field, but because of his injuries.

[Andy Holloway]

He missed three games. He missed three games in 2014. And then last year he missed six games.

[Mike Wright]

For context, and it was the timing. The timing of his injury was just. It was brutal to absorb for fantasy players.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what I love about AJ Green. The timing has wrecked his perception. And those are the type of things that I try to take the, you know, the emotions out of. If you owned AJ Green last year, you were hot fire. You thought you were on the way to the championship and you got wrecked by losing him from your roster and you're not drafting him again this year. And there's a lot of guys out there that are kind of down on him. That's going to help allow him to fall, I think, behind a couple of the guys that we're going to talk about. He's, you know, he's going to go behind Mike Evans.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Evans, maybe Jordy Nelson does Bryant, maybe Michael Thomas. These are all guys that could easily go ahead of A.J. green. And that's why I love him at this position. I feel like in some small subconscious way we're giving him the respect he deserves here at number four.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think A.J. green is any. Any more injury worry. In fact, I would say he's less of an injury worry than Julio Jones.

[Mike Wright]

That's fair. I mean, so in for context for how well A.J. green was performing for fantasy purposes, weeks one through 10, when he was actually playing, there was only four wide receivers averaging over 17 points per game in a half point format. Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Hulu Jones, and A.J. green. I mean, he was.

[Andy Holloway]

Hashtag good.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he was excellent. He was winning for your fantasy team. He just happened to get hurt. And if you can get over those fantasy burns, I mean, where's he going right now?

[Andy Holloway]

At the.

[Jason Moore]

Just rub some solve on it. Some menthol. Just rub it on there.

[Mike Wright]

That's aloe vera. I love Michael Keaton.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, right now he's going to the back of the first, obviously average draft position. Mike Evans going ahead of him. But he's the fifth wide receiver off the board.

[Jason Moore]

It's the only show where you can get simultaneous aloe vera recommendations. Number five. Oh, my goodness. Jordy Nelson. Jordy Nelson since 2011, when he's played 333, finished 12th, third, and then had the season he missed and came out last year and dominated. Is that number one? Is that what I see?

[Mike Wright]

That's number one in the hood, G.

[Jason Moore]

Well, 14 touchdowns, that'll do it. Led the league in touchdowns, 1257 yards, 97 receptions. And I would argue he started the season a little bit terrible.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, it was not just slow.

[Jason Moore]

He was scoring. Yes, but he wasn't the same Jordy. No. You kind of looked at him and you said, well, you know the reception totals, maybe he's not going to come back. Because see, the thing is, is you can make those conclusions on guys that are 32 years old and you see some trends earlier in the year and you're like, okay, maybe he's going to score for them, but maybe he's not going to be as critical. You know, you saw devonte Adams have a good year and you know, Randa Cobb struggled through some injuries and inconsistencies. So maybe Jordy's just not what he was. And he is. He is what he is. He's great.

[Mike Wright]

And weeks one through seven in that when he was still coming back from the ACL, he was averaging 53 yards a game. Weeks eight through 17, 93 yards a game. Jordy Nelson returned to form. If you're asking why is AJ Green a little bit lower, it's because I have Jordy Nelson ahead of him. I consider Jordy even at his advanced age, for a. For an NFL player, I think Jordy's safer than A.J. green.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I did a.

[Jason Moore]

Sorry, I was just going to say it's the Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. That factors into it as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Big time. I mean Aaron Rodgers. Look, I've been doing a lot of research on wide receiver touchdowns over the last decade. How they come, who they go to, what happens after an up year, what happens after all sorts of different things. Age adjusted and there are some real big pros for Jordy and a few cons for Jordyn on the pro side. Look, since 2011, Jordy Nelson has the second most receiving touchdowns in the league. He didn't play in 2015, he didn't play that season. And he is the second most receiving touchdown since 2011. The reason is another pro and it's Aaron Rodgers because if you look back at touchdown leaders year after year after year after year, you got James Jones's and Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson's.

[Mike Wright]

Jennings, Greg Jennings.

[Andy Holloway]

You have all of Aaron Rodgers touchdown options. I mean Devonte Adams last year. And so those are pluses on the minus side. I looked back over the last decade and there's been 85 times that a wide receiver has had double digit touchdowns. 85 different seasons of a wide receiver doing that. And 70% of the time the following season regresses by at least four touchdowns. And oftentimes you're talking six, seven, eight, 10 touchdowns less. And those are still good names. So you know, I went today and I actually adjusted him down one more touchdown in my stats. And usually when you give a full touchdown adjustment they drastically move a player, but for me he stayed exactly where he was. I think he's as good a bet for 10 touchdowns this next season. He's Aaron Rodgers number one guy. And there's plenty of examples of wide receivers from age 31 going to 32 that replicate that season. There are plenty as well that don't. But he's the type on the team that I think is in a situation to replicate.

[Mike Wright]

Meanwhile, the, the ADP disrespect for Jordy Nelson love it always continues. I mean, you have AJ Green going at the back of the first, you have Jordy Nelson who is in the second round. I mean that's just, that's insane to me.

[Jason Moore]

Number six on our wide receiver early rankings, Mike Evans, a name you might have expected to hear a little earlier.

[Mike Wright]

The haters are coming out now.

[Jason Moore]

Are you talking about me?

[Mike Wright]

No, I'm just telling you that people and I love Mike Evans, people. My love for Mike Evans is well documented. But this is where I have him in this range. I don't have him in my top.

[Jason Moore]

Four none of us do. And I think, I think the thing to understand with Mike Evans that I want to get into perfect transition off of Jordy Nelson. Okay? Mike Evans does not have Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball. We all believe in the upside of Jameis Winston, we love adding desean Jackson to that mix. But look Jordy Nelson, even with Aaron Rodgers, he had a monster, monster touchdown year back in 2011. I remember this. He finished number three in the league points per game. He was number two in 2011. He went to 2012, didn't score those touchdowns in the same way and went down to number 31 in points per game. And this is a player that none of us would disagree is a great player, Jordy Nelson. I'm looking at the possibility of outcomes and thus far in Mike Evans career he has not strung together back to back years in which he has been this number. Like this year he was number two. Okay, he had a monster year. He was 173 targets, 1321 yards, 12 touchdowns, 96 catches. He was amazing. He was everything we always hoped he was. He scored 12 touchdowns his rookie year, then he scored three. Now he scored 12 again. And I'm not saying he cannot do it, but the possibility of outcomes for Mike Evans puts him squarely in this 6, 7, 8 range to me as opposed to people that want to just. Okay, here's the crown. You're now one of the elite. You're with Julio and Beckham and you're with Brown and you guys all go out to dinner together. I'm not. No, you're staying back and you're going to eat with the rest of us.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I have him in that second tier of guys. He hasn't made the ascension yet. To me he's not in with those big three guys. Mike Evans benefited greatly for the first half of the year from some incredible game script for a wide receiver. The Tampa Bay defense was bad in the first eight games. Mike Evans was averaging 22 PPR points a game, almost seven receptions, a full touchdown and 93 yards. I mean almost 100 yards. You saw a, you can almost just from box score and just stats. If you don't even recall what happened last year, there is an immediate shift of the way that Tampa Bay played.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, their defense was amazing.

[Mike Wright]

They came to life the second half of the season. Last eight games they were six and two. During that time Mike Evans production dropped to 15 PPR points a game, just under nine targets, 72 yards. Great, great, great numbers, great numbers, but not top three numbers. If that's what he's going to sustain for the season. So with Evans, I guess you just.

[Jason Moore]

It's like a 32% drop.

[Mike Wright]

Right. So I mean there's some questions to ask if you're going to risk or if you're going to invest highly in Mike Evans. It's. What do you feel like the impact of desean Jackson is on him? Which I think it's positive. But we know that desean Jackson is going to siphon some touchdowns away. Jackson's likely to get at least four deep bombs.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, those breakaway touchdowns take the drive away.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, exactly. Take the drive away from him. Meanwhile, you had J.J. zachary, great friend of the show, broke down it an excellent article on him on Number Fire talked about the yards after catch was not there for Mike Evans last year. Can that return or. It's just there's a lot of factors when you're going to invest an early first round pick into a guy like Mike Evans when the other guys are on the board.

[Jason Moore]

You brought up the splits. Does it remind you a little bit of how incredibly hot that DeAndre Hopkins.

[Mike Wright]

Was and that JJ's article exactly talks about that too. He said Evans reminded him of Hopkins from the previous year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what it reminds me of too, where Hopkins was at a kind of an untenable pace in the first half of that year and the Texans defense was bad. Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

Which they shouldn't have been. And then they were great. And then Hopkins numbers deflated and you.

[Andy Holloway]

Look at that data over the last decade of those double digit touchdown years for receivers and you just pretty much have to assume regression here. At least I do. I don't see how to not with. With Jordy. I still took four touchdowns away from him. He landed at 10 for this season for Mike Evans. I mean look at, look at 2015. The top three tied for number one at wide receiver touchdowns was Doug Baldwin, Brandon Marshall and Alan Robinson. They all had 14 touchdowns. When you get those double digit touchdowns, it's hard to replicate that. The only guys in the last decade who have replicated their season when they've got a double digit touchdown season are basically hall of Fame guys. AJ Green, Beckham, Des Bryant, Fitz. Bryant again.

[Jason Moore]

It looks like Calvin Johnson did it one time, 2010 to 2011 he had 12 and then 16. Calvin's a great example of what you can just look at and say hey, who would be a better goal line touchdown guarantee than Calvin Johnson? And he went 12, 5, 12, 16, 5 12, 8. So great seasons. But touchdowns aren't guaranteed we all know this, and I would say a good principle to live by is double digit touchdowns are not guaranteed.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Yeah. It doesn't mean that we think we're not pushing Mike Evans off. Look, everybody we talk about is great. They're in our top 10. That's why this is the top 10 episode. But perspective on Mike Evans I think is one of the most needed aspects of the wide receiver analysis. You're going to get this offseason because the guy next, he could finish ahead of him. And his name's Dez Bryant, number seven. Dez Bryant, 28 years old. It's been a couple years since he's been that fantasy elite player and we haven't seen it with Prescott yet. 2012, he was the third best. 2013, he was the seventh best. 2014, it was the fourth best. So he had a run of three years in a row. You might call that earning the trust of fantasy owners to draft you high. Then the injuries happened in the past couple of years, hasn't played a full season. What's the story with Des Bryant this year? Mike, I know you've done a lot of thought about Des Bryant. You have him ranked ahead of Mike Evans.

[Mike Wright]

I think I have Des Bryant, number five. Yes. So I have him ahead of Evans and ahead of Green.

[Jason Moore]

So from a, from an ADP standpoint, he could be on your board. Maybe the best value of these top seven guys.

[Mike Wright]

I would not disagree with that. And I would disagree that he hasn't gotten it done with Dak. He didn't have a top five finish. But I mean, he, look, he played 13 games, quote unquote. He really only played 12 because he was in that final week, got one target, didn't do anything else. And I got pulled. But. And I'm not going to take these away. The games against the Giants, week one. And then much later in the season, the entire Cowboy offense struggled. Dak struggled mightily. Yes. They have to play the Giants twice a year. I get that. I think that Dak can improve. But here is the deal with Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant against teams not named the Giants, Dez Bryant averaged. Averaged five receptions for 83 yards and a full touchdown. I mean, you can't prorate that over the, over the season, but if you.

[Jason Moore]

Did, it would be a lot of touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

Those numbers are astronomical. I'm not saying he's going to hit that, but just.

[Jason Moore]

He was a big enough sample size to you.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he was fantastic throughout the course of the season. And that was. I mean, he had to deal with injury throw. On top of that, the free agency is not going very well for the Dallas Cowboys. I'm sorry, Brooks, but here's weeping over in the corner. Here's the situation. J.J. wilcox, Barry Church, safety's gone. Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne. Defensive backs gone. I mean, they have not improved.

[Jason Moore]

Tony Romo, gone.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the best. The best backup quarterback in the league, gone. You can replace some of these guys, but you cannot replace all of that in one season. So there is a high chance that. That their defense regresses. What does that do? Oh, we put more game scripts in favor of DEZ Bryant and Dak Prescott. So I just don't. Do not overlook him as his early ADP. I mean, he's in the 203 in PPR. I mean, that would just be a delight to get Des Bryant at that spot.

[Jason Moore]

Anything to add on Des Bryant or can we move on to number eight here?

[Andy Holloway]

I think we can move on. He's. He's great. He's a touchdown man. When I look at touchdowns since 2011, I mean, he is the number one. He leads and he missed quite a few games himself. He's just as reliable as they come in the red zone.

[Jason Moore]

He enjoys the end zone. He really does. All right, number eight. Hello, sunshine. It's Michael Thomas.

[Mike Wright]

We're going there.

[Jason Moore]

Michael Thomas, look, welcome to the world, young lad, 24 years old. You finished number seven at wide receiver last year and all your team did was say, well, we like you a lot. Let's trade Brandon Cooks away. Michael Thomas, I love him. You talk about a range of possible outcomes. When a rookie does that, you don't know. You don't have the three year run. So range of possible outcomes. Michael Thomas, huge, not guaranteed. That being said, I believe. I believe in Michael Thomas. I love everything I see on tape. I love everything about Drew Brees. Apparently it's very chic this offseason to speculate about how long you can play as a quarterback because Drew Brees came out the other day and thought he could play to 45, something like that.

[Mike Wright]

I guess it's the new I'll play to 46. Yeah, I'll play to 47.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it seems that way. But that being said, you know, maybe we. We haven't seen decline in Drew Brees play. And so if you told me, hey, I'm going to get two more elite Drew Bree year, Drew Brees years and what Michael Thomas is going to be in that offense and how important he's going to be in that offense Sign me up because I think he. It's just going to be a nice, nice baseline for Michael Thomas sans injury.

[Andy Holloway]

When it comes to Des Bryant and Michael Thomas, these are the two guys. When we put out our first early rankings, I had DEZ Bryant as my number four after the top three. And I was trying my best to. To kill Michael Thomas. I think if you listened a few.

[Mike Wright]

Weeks ago.

[Andy Holloway]

His value.

[Jason Moore]

I'm with you.

[Andy Holloway]

To kill his fantasy lore, if you will.

[Jason Moore]

You have to cut that brush. I want that on tape.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's. Since that time, I've done a lot of research and my narratives that I wanted to build DEZ Bryant up. I wanted to, you know, tear down Michael Thomas, a rookie who caught 70 plus percent of his passes. Look, there's going to be regression there. And I watched a lot of film and I did statistical analysis of other guys. I mean, you look at Marquis Colston as a great example. Right. Marquis Colston came in, had a great, very, very similar rookie year. Well, did Colston regress in that sophomore season when he was, I mean, extraordinarily similar? No. The next season he put up 98 for 1202 yards and 11 touchdowns. Now, with Brandon Cooks out of the way, I think Michael Thomas is one of the guys I am actually highest on. He's my number six wide receiver. I don't.

[Jason Moore]

And you did try. I know you tried.

[Andy Holloway]

I really did. And whenever I'm trying to tear a guy down and he goes the other direction, for me, it kind of sticks as a, as a my guy candidate. And so for Michael Thomas, I really do believe, I think his ADP value, you know, from here on out, I will talk a lot of garbage on him to try to bring that down.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. The thing about Michael Thomas, he's trying to kill him.

[Jason Moore]

So it's one way to do it.

[Mike Wright]

And there's a lot of analysts and I don't disagree with this data because they're numbers and you can't argue with them. But they talk about Drew Brees. Doesn't hyper target someone? There's never an incredible market share of targets going to a specific player. On the Saints, that's fine with me. So they're just saying, you know, the range of possible outcomes for Michael Thomas. Can he be that top level fantasy wide receiver? I think that he can be. I'm with Jason from week three on.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Remember, he was a rookie, so he played. He had a couple weeks to acclimate.

[Jason Moore]

Easing in.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he eased in with for his first two games from weeks three on. Out of 12 possible games, well, he missed one. So out of 11 possible games, nine times he was a wide receiver two or better. A wide receiver two, four times, a wide receiver one, five times. Those, those are outrageous numbers for Michael Thomas. And now 117 targets, 1200 yards, eight touchdowns of Drew Brees production last year is gone. It has. That has to siphon out over, over the team and maybe they find a. Someone to take a giant leap. Maybe Snead or Kobe Fleen or an unknown player at this time takes a huge chunk of that. But you just, just give Michael Thomas just a little sample of those 1200 yards and eight touchdowns and he easily is in that possibility of. He can be in the top five.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. I mean I love Michael Thomas as well. So I have him rated very high. Number nine is Ty Hilton. Ty Hilton comes in at number nine. I'm the mental picture I have of Ty Hilton is you've got all these big boy wide receivers, right? All these manimals inside of the, inside of the club, right? The top 10 club. And here's Ty Hilton on the outside and he is trying to shoulder the door open and everybody inside is saying.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, but have you ever had eight touchdowns?

[Jason Moore]

And he's like, no, but let me in, let me in.

[Mike Wright]

I see Ty Hilton just. And they're like, why should we let you in? Ty Hilton? And they're looking through the people and he's just doing his ridiculous, his Ty touchdown dance.

[Jason Moore]

Look, he's never had eight touchdowns. If you are going to go project eight touchdowns for Ty Hilton, that's a career. I'm going to disagree with you. He's been five or above, but he's been five to seven in all five of his years. Super reliable from a target perspective. You know what you're going to get. Last year it went way up because of the lack of moncrief, most likely, but also an evolution. You know, the growth of Andrew Luck helps. Last year he had 91 receptions. He was the league leader in yards, 1448 and he had six touchdowns. Now part of the confidence that I have in Ty Hilton and I think it's range of possible outcomes for Hilton, he could decrease quite a bit.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

He's not a guaranteed. He could down creases. As Jason would say, he's got a guy. He's a guy that could end up in the 17 to 20 range if things don't bounce the right way. That being said, I'm tired of doubting him as a top tier talent. Andrew Luck is a Great quarterback. Ty Hilton is going to be a part of that great offense. He plays pretty much every game. He's been very reliable, played through, you know, aches and pains. I think he's had three 16 game seasons, two 15 game seasons. So you know, I, I love it. He only had 69 receptions two years ago, but that was the year where Andrew Luck was banged up and hurt. So Ty Hilton, number nine feels fine.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's, he was in fact five points fantasy points better a game without Moncrief and Moncrief did miss some serious time. But I'm with Andy of the. I have been a Hilton doubter, a doubter of his just basically his whole career. I remember two years ago or so a bet, making a water bet with Andy of just of his production and it was, and it didn't even go that high. It was like 1006 receiving touches. I'm like, there's just no way, there's no way that that teeny little Ty Hilton's gonna get that done. And yet he just continues to get it done every year. They're in a, a pass friendly offense even with Moncrief there. If Moncrief could play all 16 games, Hilton is still a wide receiver one to me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. One of the things I like about the fact that he has not ever had eight touchdowns is that in my rankings when I'm projecting him out and I started these guys out, I gave him six touchdowns next year with I think is very doable and he ends up as my number eight wide receiver. Let's say I'm wrong and he gets four, five touchdowns or four, he's not going to move as much as being wrong on some of the other guys that you have to get that 9, 10 touchdown number from. So when you're talking about a guy in Ty Hilton that you know you're going to get in that second round, you've got I think a little bit more reliable weekly starter because one of the things we have to start getting keeping in mind when we get later in these wide receivers is what kind of consistency week to week do you get in these guys? Because are you looking for the boom bust guy who's going to have those two touchdown monster 112 yard games or are you wanting the guy who's the weekly number one target from Andrew Luck and he's not going to really crap your team or be reliant on the, on the touchdown. So that's what Ty Hilton is.

[Jason Moore]

To me that leads into the strategy question. I Was going to ask both of you, let's say Ty Hilton's your number one, your wide receiver one. Do you want a guy like Jarvis Landry as your two?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Too low. You still, you're fine with two low touchdown guys. You might combine for eight or nine touchdowns on the year between them. I was, that was my question is if you have a Ty Hilton, do you want a high touchdown guy as your second? I mean I usually like get to pick it.

[Andy Holloway]

I usually like pairing them. I usually like having the, the Edelman, the Landry, the Landry or the Ty Hilton and pairing them with one of those big touchdown guys where I've got the locked and loaded roster spot where I know I'm getting 10 plus points but maybe not more than 14. And then you know, I like throwing in a, you know, a D Jacks type guy with those. So you've got the high upside but also the baseline.

[Mike Wright]

The Hilton until last year was still very much considered a boom bust guy like a desean Jackson. And he still had that to a degree last year. I mean week two, six points, week six, six points. Week 12, under seven, week 15, six points. So I mean you have, you have four to five games here where Hilton really disappeared for your team. So to me, if you're talking about, well, pairing with Jarvis Landry at least I know and this is an assumption that you're in a half point or full point PPR if it's a standard, no way I'm going to combo those guys. But to get someone at least you're, you know, you're going to get a baseline of points where Hilton can, he can vary from week to week.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, but just to, just to throw some clarity in that all wide receivers will have those weeks where they're under 10. I think the actual amount of times that it happens for Ty is less than most.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, okay.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not sure about that.

[Andy Holloway]

No, yeah, I'll research that.

[Jason Moore]

I did want. I liked your first point. I mean it happens to Julio, happens to Evans, it happens to all of them. They're going to have some single digit games. You can't, you know, match ups and.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll get the facts tweeted at Jason FFL.

[Jason Moore]

All right, there you go. Number 10.

[Mike Wright]

Good Hopkins. Brandon Wheaton takes from Jason FFL.

[Jason Moore]

It's all Brandon Whedon all day long over at Jason FFL. All right, number 10. Is this a tie? Is that why they're both in here or is number 10Amari Cooper?

[Mike Wright]

No, number 11 has been pushed. He was number 10.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not even going to mention him.

[Mike Wright]

Correct. Dude, no. This is Voldemort level of.

[Jason Moore]

Don't say the name. Yeah, this is Voldemort level. Number 10 is Amari Cooper, then 23 years old. It's been an interesting road for Amari Cooper. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

He has certainly let you down at times.

[Andy Holloway]

He has been annoying to own, if you could say. You can't say that for Julio. The Amari Cooper is the type where when you own him, you just don't know if you're going to get one of those games where he just doesn't show up. And I mean, that. That happened last year. He caught fire the first half of the year. When you drafted him, you thought, this is the Amari Cooper that was the number one pick in the NFL draft because he is a monster. And then you look in the second half of last year, and the numbers are nowhere near the same.

[Jason Moore]

You perfectly illustrated the situation with Cooper, though. If Crabtree lets you down, I think people still go, well, he's Michael Crabtree.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

But if Cooper lets you down, it's Amari Cooper. He's supposed to be the best player in the league. The expectations change so much. It's like, you know, he is the athletic freak, the big play guy, and when he doesn't get it done consistently. Look, we've talked at length. Amari Cooper's just playing not targeted in the red zone. That's been the problem. He did jump from 22 to 13 last year, but every conversation before the season probably had him in the top 10 because it was last year was the time for the jump. Well, I don't know if it's going to be this year or not. We have him at number 10. I think that's a fairly safe spot. The possibility of outcomes probably anywhere from. Is he a top five potential guy?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

So maybe his range is from six to 16.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's. That's fair.

[Mike Wright]

The thing about Amari Cooper, his first eight games, you were getting 98 yards a game on average, pretty much 100 that he was.

[Jason Moore]

This is why you asked if he was hurt during the second half, huh?

[Mike Wright]

He was scoring average per average. He was the wide receiver. Eight in points per game. Second half of the year, that number dropped to 46 yards per game, and he was wide receiver 51 in average points per game. 51.

[Andy Holloway]

That's annoying to own.

[Jason Moore]

That's.

[Mike Wright]

That's a. I should be going to the waiver wire and grabbing a guy to play over Amari Cooper, which sounds Absolutely insane. But that's what he was.

[Andy Holloway]

So why. So why is he our number 10 then?

[Mike Wright]

You tell me.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I'll tell you. I'll tell you why. Because you have a guy that last year with, with that terrible second half of the season in. Again, only his sophomore season, that terribleness added in, in a standard league, he was a wide receiver one at the end of the year. So you saw the potential in that first half of the year to be incredible. You also had plenty of plays during that stretch. I remember them. You know, if you actually watch the games where he had a toe on the, you know, on the out of bounds line where he caught the touchdown but just was barely on the white or, or a wide open drop in the, in the end zone, where if two of those plays just change, our outlook is even higher on him. And he already kind of almost did it. So if this next season he steps up and gets more into the role that Crabtree has, if he. Look, you're not going to lose red zone targets with Cooper. So there is plenty of area to grow for him. And he was already in half point wide receiver 13. In standard wide receiver 12. So I see. I don't see him regressing. That's my point. And if he was already there.

[Jason Moore]

That's a good point. That's a good point. I mean, the touchdown numbers, they can't be worse. They can't be worse. Hey, did you guys hear this thing about Jared. Jared Cook trying to get amari Cooper's number 89 off of him?

[Mike Wright]

What?

[Jason Moore]

Isn't that just lame?

[Mike Wright]

That's super lame.

[Jason Moore]

That tells me in. That tells me that Jared Cook thinks he's bigger than he is. Because if you, if you're Tony Gonzalez and you came to Oakland and I'd be like, a Cooper would probably hand him the number, but he's a Mari Cooper. You're Jared Cook, bro.

[Mike Wright]

You're about on the same level.

[Jason Moore]

What do you think? He walks up and goes, you see that catch? See one catch last year, you ought.

[Mike Wright]

To say, you ever watch some Rams games? Is he gonna change week one?

[Jason Moore]

Gonna change your opinion of Amari Cooper? If you see him have to run out there with a different number, like, he didn't stick up for his number. Does it change your ranking?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know. Maybe.

[Mike Wright]

It's just. Maybe it helps him.

[Jason Moore]

Jared Cook, what are you doing? They need Marshawn in that locker room to get things in order.

[Mike Wright]

I'm Jared Cook.

[Jason Moore]

Give me a MARSHAWN.

[Andy Holloway]

Why is 89 a number you're fighting over?

[Jason Moore]

Well, if it's your number you've always worn. What do you mean? Did you just.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Vilify the number 89?

[Andy Holloway]

I sure did.

[Mike Wright]

Independently.

[Andy Holloway]

I sure did.

[Jason Moore]

What number's good for you? 89.

[Andy Holloway]

Can you fight 83? Who's name? Him.

[Jason Moore]

Very strange number. Opinion.

[Andy Holloway]

What. What are the most famous players who've worn 89?

[Mike Wright]

Maybe that's why Jared Cook.

[Jason Moore]

Jared Cook. I don't know. 89 doesn't come to mind.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm not a. I'm not a Jersey, you know, 88.

[Jason Moore]

I think of Michael Irvin.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, there's. There's some good 88.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we're done.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, this is great. I got to tweet this out, this picture. I just went and looked because I'm not a jersey number guy either. And there's a picture here of famous players by their numbers. And it's a photo, like a collage of all of the numbers and in it you've got all these names. And then picture 89. That's who it is. There's no name on it. Here's 89.

[Mike Wright]

That's why Cooper picked it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he wanted to be here so.

[Mike Wright]

He could blaze his own trail.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Now Jared Cook's trying to steal his fire.

[Jason Moore]

Is Mike Dick 89. All right, we're going to get into the second. The second show on our early rankings on Thursday.

[Mike Wright]

Voldemort's in the list.

[Jason Moore]

Voldemort's in the list. Stay tuned to the Fantasy Footballers and subscribe. Leave us reviews on itunes.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike dick.

[Jason Moore]

It was 89, was he? Yeah, yeah, if he feels so. Which is strange, right? Like he wasn't a white out.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it seems like a tight end number, but whatever.

[Jason Moore]

A tight end number. Yeah, seems like a. Yeah, a pass catcher number.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

I don't understand the numbers in general because, you know, all over the place.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I don't either.

[Andy Holloway]

Like wide receivers, you could be 11 or 13 or 89, but you can't be 50.

[Mike Wright]

When they were making those rules. What.

[Jason Moore]

What were?

[Mike Wright]

I don't think.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know. I don't know. We'll have one of those guys on the show. Never. All right, that is it for today's Show. The fantasy footballers dot com. Twitter, heffballers in YouTube. You can head over there and watch it, see the madness. We'll catch you on what, Thursday? Thursday sounds pretty good to me.

[Mike Wright]

Hey, and check out fantasyjocks.com the promo code is footballers get some trophies. We will See you on Thursday. Goodbye, freedom.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on TwitterFFballers.